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下午好，各位。
Afternoon, everybody.
我是安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金，今天下午非常荣幸能与彼得·蒂尔在一起，他是硅谷最伟大的传奇投资者之一。
I'm Andrew Ross Sorkin, and it is a privilege to have with me Peter Thiel this afternoon, one of the great legendary investors in Silicon Valley.
他几乎参与了你们所接触和感受到的每一件事，包括成为PayPal和Palantir的联合创始人。
He has been involved in just about everything that you touch and feel, including being the cofounder of PayPal, the cofounder of Palantir.
他做出了对Facebook的首次外部投资，我应该说，那是他的第一次外部投资。
He made his first outside investment made the first outside investment, I should say, in Facebook.
他的公司创始人基金是Stripe和SpaceX的重要支持者。
His firm Founders Fund is a big backer of Stripe and SpaceX.
他的公司通过创始人基金和Teal Capital支持了众多其他初创企业。
His firm backed numerous other startups through the Founders Fund and Teal Capital.
他还发起了蒂尔奖学金，这是一个为期两年的项目，作为大学学位的替代选择，我稍后会谈到这一点。
He also started the Thiel Fellowship, a two year program that's an alternative to a college degree, which I want to get to at one point.
更重要的是，他发掘并影响了那些每天出现在头条新闻中的人物，从马克·扎克伯格到埃隆·马斯克，再到萨姆·阿尔特曼，还有许多其他人。
And more importantly than all of it, he has touched some of the people and found the people who you read about in the headlines every day, from Mark Zuckerberg to Elon Musk to Sam Altman and so many others.
很高兴你能来这里。
And it is great to have you here.
谢谢你的邀请。
Thanks for having me.
我们还会聊一点政治话题。
We're also going to talk a little politics as well.
以及硅谷正在发生的某些问题和文化讨论。
Along with maybe some of the issues and culture conversations that are happening in Silicon Valley.
但我想从这里开始我们的对话。
But here's where I want to start the conversation.
因为我想从人的话题开始讨论。
Because I want to start the conversation talking about people.
因为当你回顾这些年来，你不仅投资公司，更投资于人，这一点确实非同寻常。
Because I think there's something actually extraordinary when you think about your track record over the years of involving yourself and investing, not just in companies, but ultimately in people.
你写了一本书，今年正好是出版十周年。
You wrote a book which is coming on a ten year anniversary.
顺便说一下，我重新读了一遍，这本书依然非常出色。
And by the way, I reread it, and it stands up in a very big way.
这本书叫《从零到一》。
It is called Zero to One.
你关于创始人、创始人的理念写了以下内容。
And you wrote the following about founders, the idea of founders.
你写道，商业的教训是我们需要创始人。
You wrote that the lesson for business is that we need founders.
如果 anything，我们应对那些看似古怪或极端的创始人更加宽容。
If anything, we should be more tolerant of founders who seem strange or extreme.
我们需要非同寻常的个体来带领公司超越单纯的渐进式发展。
We need unusual individuals to lead companies beyond mere incrementalism.
我提到这一点，是因为我刚刚也提到了一些我们经常读到的个人。
And I mention that because I also just mentioned a number of individuals which we read about all the time.
其中一些人可能会被描述为非同寻常，甚至有些古怪。
And some of those people would be described as unusual, perhaps, or even strange.
我很好奇，多年来你是如何发现这些人的？
And I'm curious about how you think over the years you have found these individuals.
是什么让这些人取得了如此大的成功？
What it is that has made these individuals as successful as they have become?
是的。
Yes.
如果真有什么简单的魔法公式，比如‘这就是创始人的样子，我们投资这种类型的人’，那很可能会被伪造。
It's it's obviously if if there was some simple magic formula, this is what a founder looks like and you invest in this category of people who's a founder, it probably gets faked.
我不知道。
It's like I don't know.
可能是一个穿着T恤和牛仔裤的20岁年轻人之类的人。
It's a it's a 20 year old with a t shirt and jeans or something like this.
或者你会得到各种虚假的想法。
Or you end up with all kinds of really fake ideas.
但确实，我认为过去二十年里许多伟大的公司，某种程度上都是由那些事业与他们的身份、人生目标深深相连的人创立的。
But but, yeah, I think a lot of the the great companies that that have been built over the last over the last two decades were, know, somehow they were founded by people where it was somehow deeply connected to their identity, their life's life project.
他们对所做的事情有着某种独特、与众不同的愿景。
They had some kind of some you know, idiosyncratic, somewhat different vision of what they were doing.
他们做了些全新的事情，然后在多年间建起了极其庞大的事业。
They did something new, and then they built something extraordinarily big over the years.
当然，这些人往往具有极端的个性，有很多盲点，这些特质在某些方面是优势，但在另一些方面又可能有点问题。
And of course, they have these are sort of extreme personalities, often have a lot of blind spots, and there's sort of all these ways in which it's a feature and there are ways in which it can be a little bit buggy.
但这是一个整体性的组合，总的来说，我认为这比聘请职业CEO要有利得多。
But there it's it's sort of a package deal and I I net out to it being, you know, massively advantageous versus, let's say, a professional CEO being brought in.
关于这一点的前史，我认为可以追溯到20世纪90年代。
The prehistory of this, I would say, would be in the nineteen nineties.
当时的硅谷模式是：一群人创立公司，然后尽快用职业CEO和专业管理团队取代他们。
The Silicon Valley formula was you had various people found the company, and then you'd replace them as quickly as possible with professional CEOs, professional management.
Netscape、Yahoo，甚至Google，都曾出现过这种模式的各种变体。
And there are variations of this that happened with Netscape and Yahoo and even Google, all all these sort of all these companies.
因此，这些公司是由X世代的人创立的。
And so the Gen X people founded them.
婴儿潮一代随后接管了这些公司，并在九十年代从X世代创始人手中夺走了控制权。
The baby boomers came along and sort of took over the companies and stole them from the Gen X founders in the nineties.
到了二月份，当千禧一代创立公司时，他们获得了更多的机会。
In the in the February, when the millennials founded the companies, they were given they were given more of an opportunity.
这是一个巨大的区别。
It a big difference.
我经常讲的Facebook故事是，那是2006年，公司成立两年后。
You know, the the Facebook story I always tell is it was, you know, 2006, two years in.
扎克伯格当时只有22岁，我们收到了雅虎10亿美元收购公司的报价。
Zuckerberg was like 22 years old, and we got a $1,000,000,000 offer to sell the company to Yahoo.
我们召开了一次董事会会议。
And we had a board meeting.
当时我们只有三个人。
There were three of us.
你知道，我们觉得至少应该讨论一下这个提议。
You know, we thought we should at least talk about it.
那是一大笔钱。
It was a lot of money.
扎克伯格能拿到两亿五千万美元，整个讨论持续了八个小时。
Zuckerberg would make $250,000,000 and sort of an eight hour long discussion.
他不知道拿到这笔钱后该做什么。
And he didn't know what he'd do with the money.
他可能会再创办一家类似现在的社交网络公司，但除此之外，他也不知道还能做什么。
And he'd just start another social networking company, kind of like the one he had, and didn't know what else he would do.
所以他真的不想卖公司。
And so he really didn't want to didn't want to sell.
如果你有一位专业的首席执行官，他可能会说：天哪，他们居然愿意出十亿美元收购，我得装作不那么激动，我们最好拿钱走人。
And if you had a professional CEO, it would have just been, man, I can't believe they're offering us a billion dollars, and I'm going to try not to be too eager, and we better, you know, we better take the money and run.
是的，没错。
And and yeah.
把这件事做对，真的能带来巨大差异。
That getting that that one thing right makes makes a big difference.
让我问你一个不同的问题。
Let me ask you a different question.
所有这些个体都对社会产生了巨大影响，并拥有巨大的个人力量。
And it it all of these individuals had a huge impact on society and have an enormous individual power.
我认为，你在这本书中以及多年来一直主张的是，我们需要赋予他们这种权力。
And I think one of the things that you've argued in this book and you've argued over the years is that we need to give them that power.
我们需要给予他们一种在许多方面我们并未给予他人的自由度。
We need to offer them a latitude that in many ways we don't offer others.
嗯，我认为，我一直以来的一个视角是，过去五十年来，美国和发达国家在许多方面相对停滞不前。
Well well, I think I think the you know, I we of the one of the frames I always have is that there are many ways in which The United States, developed countries have been relatively stagnant for the last fifty years.
进步已经放缓。
Progress has slowed.
我们确实取得了计算机、互联网、软件和其他许多领域的进展。
We've had you know, we had progress in computers, internet, software, and many other domains.
但很多事情已经停滞了。
Things have kind of stalled out.
这种现象表现为低经济增长，因为年轻一代将很难达到他们父母的水平。
It's it's sort of manifests in low economic growth in the sense that the younger generation is gonna have a tough time doing as well as their parents.
而且，过去四十年到五十年间，整体上出现了这种广泛的停滞，我们需要找到做新事情的方法。
And there is sort of this this way that, there has been this broad stagnation for forty, fifty years, and we need to find ways to do new things.
我不认为，你知道，初创科技公司是实现这一点的唯一方式。
I I don't think, you know, start up tech start up companies are the only ways to do them.
对。
Right.
但它们确实是实现这一目标的一种途径。
But that is that is a vehicle for doing it.
而且，没错。
And and yeah.
如果你不允许这些公司拥有一定的自由度和灵活性去尝试新事物，而是一上来就扼杀它们，那么停滞将会比以往更严重。
If you don't if you don't allow these companies to have a certain latitude and flexibility to to try to do new new things, we shut it down right away, you know, the stagnation will be will be worse than ever.
好的。
Okay.
但这里有一个独立的、近乎哲学性的问题。
But here's a here's a separate, almost philosophical question.
我要复述一下你对《纽约客》说过的话。
I'm going read back something you said to the New Yorker.
有一篇关于萨姆·阿尔特曼的文章。
There was a piece about Sam Altman.
这是在OpenAI刚成立时，大约2016年的时候。
This is before This is right around actually when OpenAI began, 2016.
我认为这实际上可能反映了你对马克·扎克伯格、埃隆·马斯克或其他一些主要人物的看法。
And I think it actually might might even be representative of how you might think about Mark Zuckerberg or Elon Musk or some these other kinds of major players.
这是你当时说的话。
This is what you said.
你说：萨姆对世界的愿景是以理念为根基，而非以人物为中心。
You said, Sam's program for the world is anchored by ideas, not people.
这正是它的力量所在。
And that's what make it makes it powerful.
因为它不会立即被人气问题所干扰。
Because it doesn't immediately get derailed by questions of popularity.
我认为这实际上非常能体现你所投资的大多数人的特点。
And I thought that that was actually very indicative of most of the people that you have invested in.
这真的关乎理念，某种程度上，甚至可以说与人脱节。
It's really been about ideas and in some ways, you could even argue is disconnected from people.
你知道，我认为这其实关乎广泛的人群，他们能够思考各种广泛的问题。
It's you know, I think I think it is really about a whole wide people are they're able to think about a wide spectrum of things.
他们能够思考，优秀的创始人如何制定招聘、管理以及组建团队的理论。
They're able to think about, you know, that good founders have theories of how to hire people, how to manage them, how to build teams.
他们有关于文化和社会发展趋势的理论。
They have theories about where the culture, the societies work going.
他们有关于产品和设计的技术性见解。
They have technical things about the product, the design.
他们有关于如何推广公司的想法。
They have ideas about how they should market their company.
所以他们是某种通才，能够思考这些众多的事情。
So they're they're they're sort of polymaths who are able to think about, you know, a lot of these things.
但没错，我确实更倾向于那些更注重智力的项目。
But, yeah, I'm I'm biased towards a lot of the ones where it's it's it's it's more intellectual.
也许但我觉得这句话在萨姆·阿尔特曼身上依然适用。
And maybe but I think that quote has held up pretty well with with Sam Altman.
也许他需要对董事会和类似的事情多关注一点。
Maybe maybe he needed to pay a little bit more attention to the board and things like that.
在2016年11月，他可能忽视了太多人性层面的因素。
And there was probably a people dimension he had ignored a little bit too much in November 2016.
既然我们谈到了萨姆·阿尔特曼，而且萨姆昨天刚来过，我很好奇。
It's a Since we're on the Sam Altman of it all and since Sam was here yesterday, I'm so curious.
你曾经是他的导师。
You were a mentor of his.
你对OpenAI有什么看法？
What do you think of OpenAI?
你现在对人工智能整体怎么看？
What do you think of AI more broadly right now?
我的意思是，我们现在是在泡沫中吗？
I mean, are we in a bubble?
这是未来吗？
Is this the future?
这到底是什么？
What is this?
这是一个很宽泛的问题。
Well, it's a broad question.
我觉得我总是不太愿意谈论这个，因为几年前我关于人工智能的很多看法现在看来都错了。
I I think I'm always hesitant to talk about it because I feel there's so many things I would have said about AI where I would have been very wrong two, three years ago.
所以也许我先简单说说过去人们认为会发生什么，以及OpenAI实现的、确实发生的惊人突破。
So maybe I'll start by just saying a little bit about the history of what I what people thought was going to happen, and then the surprising thing that OpenAI achieved and that did happen.
如果你在2010年代进行这场辩论，当时可能有两种主要框架，对应两本书。
And if you were had this debate in the twenty tens, there was sort of one one maybe frame in terms of two paradigms, two books.
当时有博斯特罗姆的《超级智能》2014年版，认为人工智能将创造出一种类似神明的超人类智能。
There was the there was the Bostrom book, Superintelligence 2014, which is that AI was gonna build this godlike, superhuman intelligence.
这种观点认为人工智能正朝着一个类似神明的全知者发展。
This was it was heading towards this godlike oracle.
这就是人们认为人工智能将要成为的样子。
That was what AI was going to be.
而李开复在2018年出版的《AI超powers》则反驳了这种观点，代表了中国共产党对硅谷的回应：不，人工智能并不是关于神明般的智能。
And then there the Kai Fu Lee rebuttal 2018 AI superpowers, which was sort of with the CCP rebuttal to Silicon Valley that, no, AI is not about godlike intelligence.
那种说法只是硅谷的科幻幻想。
That's a science fiction fantasy Silicon Valley has.
人工智能将关乎机器学习和数据收集。
AI is going to be about, you know, machine learning, data collection.
它没有意识。
It's not conscious.
也不是这些奇怪的东西。
It's not any of these weird things.
这是监控技术，而中国将在人工智能竞赛中超越美国，因为我们社会对这种极权主义的数据收集方式（他没用这个词）毫无顾忌。
It's it's surveillance tech, and and China is going to beat The US in the race for AI because we have no qualms about sort of this totalitarian, not the word he used, a collection of data in our our society.
这就是人工智能辩论被框定的方式。
And that was sort of the way the AI debate got framed.
然后，我总是说，天啊，这个词真奇怪。
Then, you know, the thing I always said was, man, it's just such a weird word.
它意味着各种不同的东西。
It means all these different things.
它定义得令人烦恼地模糊。
It's it's annoyingly undefined.
但随后发生了一件令人惊讶且出人意料的事情：某种程度上，OpenAI在2022年底至2023年初通过ChatGPT-3.5实现的成就是，你通过了图灵测试——这并非超级智能，也不是神一般的存在，更不是低技术的监控，但这一目标却是人工智能领域六七十年来的终极追求。
But then the the sort of surprising and strangely unexpected thing that happened is that in some sense, what OpenAI with ChatGPT 3.54 achieved in late twenty two, early twenty three was you passed the Turing test, which was not superintelligence, it's not godlike, it's not low tech surveillance, but that had been the holy grail of AI for sixty or seventy years.
这是一条模糊的界限。
And it's a it's a fuzzy line.
图灵测试就是，你有一个计算机，它能让你相信它是一个人类。
The Turing test is you have a computer that can convince you that it's a human being.
这条界限有些模糊，因为虽然有时如此，但显然在此之前从未被通过。
And it's a somewhat fuzzy line because sometimes but but it pretty clearly hadn't been passed before.
现在显然已经被通过了。
It pretty clearly is passed now.
这是一个非常非凡的成就。
And that's a that's a really extraordinary achievement.
这带来了各种有趣的重大问题。
It's extremely it raises all sorts of interesting big picture questions.
这意味着什么？
What does it mean?
你知道，什么是2024年作为人类的意义？
You know you know, what what does it what does it mean to be a human being in 2024?
几年前我可能会倾向于给出的权宜之答，大概是诺姆·乔姆斯基的观点，即语言非常重要。
You know, sort of the placeholder answer I would have been tempted to give a couple of years ago would be something like the Noam Chomsky idea that, you know, something very important about language.
这正是人类区别于其他所有动物的地方。
This is what sets humans apart from all the other animals.
我们彼此交谈，拥有丰富的语义和语法结构。
We talk to each other, and we have these rich semantic syntax things.
所以如果计算机能够复制这一点，那对我们这个房间里所有人意味着什么？
And so if a computer can replicate that, you know, what does that mean for all of us in this room?
这是一个非凡的进展，尽管它一直是终极目标，但在过去十年里，人们完全没想到它会实现。
And so it's it's a it's an extraordinary development and it was also somehow even though it had been the holy grail, somehow in the last decade before, it was not expected at all.
所以确实如此。
And and so there's yeah.
它非常重大，却一直被低估。
There's something very significant about it and very underrated.
当然，你会引发所有这些问题，比如，它会成为互补品吗？
And of course, you get all these questions about, you know, is it going to is it the econ one question is it a complement?
它会让人更有生产力吗？
Is it going to make people more productive?
还是说它是一种替代品，会取代人类？
Or is it a substitute good where it's going to replace them?
那么你觉得呢
So what do
你对这一切怎么看？
you think of all of this?
作为投资者，你对这个有多看好？
And and how bullish as an investor are you on this?
我的意思是，当你听到萨姆·阿尔特曼谈论这些时，你觉得他说得对，我们的社会将会变成那样。
I mean, what do you think our society is When you hear Sam Altman talk about this, you say, he's right.
那就是它将要变成的样子。
That's what it's going to be.
你认为它会是别的样子吗？
Do you think it's going to be something else?
你经历过1999年。
You lived through 1999.
有些人说，这不过是一个炒作周期。
There's some people who say this is, you know, a hype cycle.
其他人说这是未来。
Other people say this is the future.
嗯，我非常立足于1999年的历史。
Well, it's I I I'm I'm very anchored on the '99 history.
我总是喜欢说，1999年既是这样，也是那样。
And I and I somehow always like to say that '99 was both.
泡沫的顶峰，在某种意义上，也是最清晰的顶峰。
It was you know, the peak of the bubble was also, in a sense, the peak of clarity.
人们意识到新经济将取代旧经济。
People had realized the new economy was going to replace the old economy.
互联网将成为二十一世纪最重要的事物，人们对这一点是正确的。
The Internet was going to be the most important thing in the twenty first century, and people were right about that.
但具体的投资却极其难以做出，即使是显而易见的市场领导者也是如此。
And then the specific investments were incredibly hard to make, and even the no brainer market leader.
所以如果你在1999年说，最显而易见的投资就是亚马逊股票。
So if you said 1999, the no brainer investment would have been Amazon stock.
这是一家领先的电子商务公司，它们会不断扩张并变得更大。
It's a leading e commerce company, And they're going to scale and they'll get bigger.
它在1999年12月达到每股113美元的高点。
And it peaked in December '9 at $113 a share.
到了2001年10月，也就是22个月后，股价跌至5.5美元。
It was $5.5 in October 2001, twenty two months later.
然后你必须等到2009年才能重新回到1999年的高点。
You then had to wait till the 2009 to get back to the 'ninety nine highs.
而如果你一直等到今天，你从1999年起的投资就获得了25倍的回报。
And then if you'd waited till today, you would have made 25x your money from 'ninety nine.
你先是亏损了95%，然后又获得了500倍的收益。
You'd first lost you'd have gone down 95% and then made 500x.
所以，即使是1999年看似显而易见的投资，回过头来看也极其难以操作。
So even the no brainer investment from 'ninety nine was wickedly tricky to to pull off in in in retrospect.
我某种程度上认为，AI，也就是大语言模型形式的AI
I I sort of think that AI the LLM form of AI
这些是大型语言模型。
These are the large language models.
大型语言模型。
Large language models.
OpenAI 的
Open AIs of
世界。
the world.
这已经通过了图灵测试，我认为它的规模大致相当于互联网。
That's passing the Turing test, I think it's roughly on the scale of the Internet.
因此，这是一个极其重要的事物。
And so it's an incredibly important thing.
它将在社会、政治、哲学层面产生深远影响，涉及所有关于意义的问题。
It's going be very important socially, politically, philosophically, about all these questions about meaning.
至于金融投资问题，我觉得难以置信地困难和困惑，确实非常复杂。
And then the financial investment question I find unbelievably hard and confusing and yeah, it's probably quite tricky.
如果非得具体化的话，有一件事非常奇怪，那就是如果你追踪资金流向，目前80%到85%的AI资金都由一家公司赚取。
If I had to if you had to sort of concretize it, one thing that's very strange about the you know, if you sort of just follow the money, at this point, 80 to 85% of the money in in AI is being made by one company.
这家公司就是英伟达。
It's NVIDIA.
所有的资金都集中在一种非常奇特的硬件层面上，而硅谷对此早已所知甚少。
It's all and so it's all on this sort of very weird hardware layer, which Silicon Valley doesn't even know very much about anymore.
我们硅谷现在根本不做硬件，也不再生产硅芯片了。
We don't really do hardware, we don't do silicon chips in Silicon Valley anymore.
我每三四年就会被推销一次这类公司，但我完全不知道该怎么搞。
I get pitched on these companies once every three or four years and it's always, I have no clue how to do this.
听起来是个不错的点子，但天啊，我真的完全不懂，所以我们从不投资，你知道的。
Sounds like a pretty good idea, but man, I have no clue and we never invest, you know.
于是就有一种理论认为，硬件部分最初赚取利润，随后会逐渐商品化，利润会转向软件领域。
And so and then there's sort of this theory that the hardware piece makes the money initially, then gets more commodified over time and it'll shift to software.
而那个数万亿美元的问题是：这次这种情况还会再次发生吗？还是说英伟达会再次拥有这种不可思议的……
And the I don't know, the multi trillion dollar question is that that going to be true again this time or you know, or will NVIDIA sort of have this incredible What's
你目前的赌注是什么？
your bet at the moment?
我怀疑英伟达会，我认为它会在一段时间内保持其地位。
Suspect NVIDIA will I think it will maintain its position for a while.
但你知道，我认为这里的博弈论是这样的：所有大型科技公司都会开始尝试设计自己的AI芯片，以免向英伟达支付10倍的溢价。
But you know, I think the game theory on it is something like all the big tech companies are gonna start to try to design their own AI chips so they don't have to do the 10x markup to NVIDIA.
那么，他们实现这一点有多难？
And then and then how hard is it for them to do it?
需要多长时间？
How long will it take?
如果他们都这么做，芯片就会变成大宗商品，没人能从芯片上赚钱。
If they all do it, then then the chips become a commodity and nobody makes money in chips.
那么，你是否应该进入硬件领域，只有在别人都不做的时候才去做？
And so then then, you know, do you do you do you go into hardware and you should do it if nobody else is doing it?
如果大家都这么做，你就不该去做。
If everybody does it, you shouldn't do it.
然后我不确定这最终会怎样，但可能人们会暂时被困住，而视频领域会继续蓬勃发展。
And then maybe I'm not sure how that nets out, but probably people stay stay stuck for a while and and video goes from strength to strength for a while.
我有个相关但可能比较个人的问题想问你。
I have a related but maybe personal question for you.
你和萨姆·阿尔特曼有着非常有趣的关系，同时也和埃隆·马斯克有着非常有趣的关系。
You happen to have this very interesting relationship with Sam Altman and then also a very interesting relationship with Elon Musk.
嗯。
Mhmm.
你们俩都曾在贝宝工作过。
You both worked at PayPal.
嗯。
Mhmm.
你曾主导了一场实际上将埃隆·马斯克赶出公司的政变。
You famously were part of a coup effectively to push Elon Musk out of the company.
但现在你们又重归于好，你还持有SpaceX的股份。
You're now friends with him all over again and have a stake in SpaceX.
嗯。
Mhmm.
你能跟我们讲讲这段友谊吗？
You can maybe walk us through that friendship.
我们在2001年2月有过一些不愉快，但
We had some rough moments in 02/2001 but
如果你愿意，我们可以深入聊聊这个。
We can we can get into that if you want.
但我想说的是，真正让硅谷乃至整个国家感到着迷的一件事，是埃隆·马斯克对OpenAI的评论——他当初和萨姆一起创立了这个非营利组织，后来两人决裂，而这一切也改变了OpenAI的走向。
But where I was going to go with this, actually, is one of the things that's been fascinating and fascinating to the Valley and I think to the country has been the commentary we've heard from Elon Musk who helped build OpenAI with SAM and the break actually between the two of them as creating this not for profit and what's happened to it.
事实上，埃隆·马斯克今年早些时候曾起诉萨姆，但最近又撤回了诉讼。
In fact, Elon Musk originally sued Sam earlier this year and then dropped the suit recently.
但你怎么看待这样一个最初以非营利为目的成立的公司？关于安全问题，埃隆和萨姆各自有不同的说法，你怎么看？
But how do you think about this idea of a company that was was started as a not for profit and all of the safety concerns and things that you hear from Elon on one side and Sam on the other?
天啊，我每次跟他们其中一个人聊完，都觉得他最有道理，大概吧。
Man, it's it's whichever person I talked to last, I find the most convincing, probably.
所以，你知道，我和埃隆谈过这件事，他提出了这样一个观点。
So so, you know, I I talked to Elon about it, and he made this argument.
非营利组织转变为营利性公司是完全非法的，因为否则每个人都会把公司设为非营利组织，利用税收法律，然后将其转为营利性公司，这显然是不行的，他们绝对不能这么做。
It's just completely illegal for a nonprofit to become a for profit company because otherwise, everyone would set up companies as nonprofits and take advantage of the tax laws, and then you turn them into a for profit, and obvious this is the arb, and they just can't be allowed to do this.
萨姆在OpenAI所做的事情显然是完全非法的。
It's obviously just totally illegal, what Sam's trying to do at OpenAI.
然后，就在谈话结束半小时后，我突然意识到，哦，这个论点真的很有力。
And then, like, half an hour after the conversation was over, I was in a moment, it's like, oh, that's a really strong argument.
再过半小时，我又想，但你知道，OpenAI的整个历史表明，他们最大的障碍就是非营利性质。
And then half an hour later, it's like but, you know, the whole history of OpenAI is that the biggest handicap they had was a nonprofit.
这导致了各种荒谬的冲突，最终形成了一个非营利董事会，他们认为关闭公司或整个项目（无论你怎么称呼）比继续下去更好。
And it led to all these crazy conflicting things culminating in this nonprofit board that thought it was better to shut down the company or the whole venture, whatever you want to call it, rather than keep going.
鉴于OpenAI的惨败，今后不会再有人会从OpenAI吸取教训，去创办一个非营利组织然后 later 转为营利性公司。
And nobody is ever going to take the lesson from OpenAI to start a nonprofit and turn it into a for profit later, given what a total disaster that was.
但没错，我最后听的那个人，我觉得最有说服力。
But, yeah, whoever I listened to last, I find the most compelling.
我问你个不同的问题。
Let me ask you a different question.
你离开了硅谷。
You you left Silicon Valley.
你现在搬到了洛杉矶。
You have now moved to Los Angeles.
那是你的家。
That's your home.
我们是特意离开旧金山的。
We left San Francisco specifically.
是的。
Yeah.
我们某种程度上
We sort
是特意离开旧金山的。
of San Francisco specifically.
当时就是觉得是时候离开了。
It it was it it just felt it was time to get out.
所以告诉我们，为什么是时候离开了。
So tell us why it was time to get out.
因为我认为我们经常读到的那些问题，比如OpenAI以及这些公司内部的诸多文化问题，正是你决定不再住在那里原因。
Because I think a lot of the issues that actually we read about, whether around OpenAI and some of the culture issues at a lot of these companies are the reason you decided you didn't want to live there anymore.
说实话，这是很多因素叠加的结果，但当时的感觉是，那里简直是全国最疯狂的地方的中心。
It was man, it's it's it's hard to it's a bunch of things that came together, but it was there was there was a sense that it was sort of the ground zero of the most unhinged place in in in the country.
那里有严重的无家可归问题，也许这并不是最重要的问题，但这个问题一直得不到改善。
It was you had this you had this catastrophic homeless problem, which maybe is not the most important problem, but sort of this and it was it was never getting better.
到2018年我们搬去洛杉矶时，感觉这个地方已经变得极度自我厌恶。
You had it it was by by 2018, when we moved to LA, it felt like it had become extraordinarily self hating.
那里，你知道，所有非科技行业的人们都讨厌科技行业。
Where, you know, everybody who was not in tech hated the tech industry.
这非常奇怪。
This would be this is very odd.
这就像是休斯顿的人讨厌石油，底特律的人讨厌汽车，或者纽约人讨厌金融一样。
It would be like the people in Houston hating oil, or people in Detroit hating cars, you know, people in New York hating finance.
因此，这座城市本身具有这种疯狂且自我憎恨的特质。
And so it had this unhinged, self hating character in the city itself.
所有这些事情都显得异常不健康。
There were all these things that seemed extraordinarily unhealthy.
如果你在2021年问我，我会说，天啊，他们终于拥有了最大的财富，创造了如此多的财富，却还要成功地自我毁灭。
If you asked me in 2021, I would have said, man, they are finally yes, they're sitting on the biggest they created all this wealth and yet they are going to succeed in committing suicide.
三年后，你知道，我觉得结论还不太明朗，因为也许人工智能革命足够强大，足以拯救这个国家最荒唐、管理最糟糕的城市。
Three years later, you know, I think the jury's a little bit more out because it may maybe maybe the AI revolution's big enough that it will save even the most, you know, I don't know, the most most ridiculously mismanaged city in the country.
看起来似乎
It seemed to
是，这某种程度上是
be That's that's sort of the
我认为你对旧金山的问题在于它的政治氛围。
I thought that part of the issue that you had with San Francisco was the politics of it.
不仅仅是政治本身，还有政治如何渗透到众多公司的文化中。
And and and not just the politics of it, but how politics had seeped into the culture of so many of the companies.
而且我觉得，你认为它已经朝着非常进步的方向发展了。
And a feeling, I I think, that you thought that it had moved in a very progressive way.
是的。
Yeah.
这始终是一个非常明确的方面。
That's that's always that's always a that's always a very clear dimension of it.
但那只是冰山一角。
But and that's sort of the tip of the iceberg.
那是浮出水面的部分，人们总是关注这一点。
That's the part that's above the surface that people always focus on.
而水面以下的部分则是深层的腐败、学校的管理不善、公交系统、所有公共服务的瘫痪、事物运作的失灵，以及 zoning 规划在全国范围内最为荒谬。
And then the part that's below the surface is just the deep corruption, the mismanagement of the schools, the buses, all the public services, the way things don't work, the way the zoning is the most absurd in the country.
你知道，我当时也不太清楚。
Know, there was I don't know.
我曾想买一栋房子，但那房子根本无法修建通往车库的通道。
There was a house I was looking to buy where you couldn't couldn't build access into the garage.
当时担任加州副州长的加文·纽森说，他会帮我申请车库通道许可。
And Gavin Newsom, who was the lieutenant governor of California at the time, said he'd help me get a garage access permit.
再次强调，这显然不是世界第五大经济体副州长应该做的事。
Again, it's not clear that's what the lieutenant governor of the fifth largest economy in the world should be doing.
但他表示，他知道2013年左右在旧金山该如何操作。
But he said he knew how to do this in San Francisco circa 2013.
然后，你知道，你得去办这件事。
And then and then, you know, you needed to get it.
你得让邻居们签字同意，这或许还能办到。
You needed to get the neighbors to sign off, which was maybe doable.
然后你还得去市监督委员会申请，因为你得建一个楼梯，而它属于公共通道，必须经过全体公众的评议。
And then you needed to go to the board of supervisors because you had to build a staircase, and it was a public walkway, and that the whole public had to comment.
之后发生了什么，没人知道。
Nobody knew what happened then.
但更糟糕的是，一条树长在了本该是车道的位置，你需要申请砍树许可。
But then even harder, a tree had grown where the driveway was supposed to be, and you needed a tree removal permit.
而这种事你根本不可能办成。
And this was the sort of thing that you would never get.
所以你可以把这一切描述为疯狂的左翼意识形态，但我认为这更像是极其深层的腐败。
And so you can describe all this as like crazy left wing ideology, but think it's more like really, really deep corruption.
这在某种程度上就是旧金山的问题。
And this is in a way the San Francisco problem.
这也是加利福尼亚的问题。
It's the California problem.
如果你想理解加利福尼亚的经济，我打个比方，它在某些方面类似于沙特阿拉伯。
The analogy I have if you want to think about the economy of California, in some ways it's analogous to Saudi Arabia.
你有一个管理得非常糟糕的州政府。
You have these you have these you know, you have a very mismanaged state government.
伴随而来的是一些疯狂的意识形态，但你还有像大型科技公司这样的惊人财富源泉。
There's a lot of insane ideology that goes with it, but you have these incredible gushers called the big tech companies.
而这种极度疯狂的治理方式，与这个地方的淘金热有着某种联系。
And and then there's a way the the super insane governance is linked to the of the gold rush of of the place.
所以，是的，总会有那么一个点，连加利福尼亚也受不了，但加利福尼亚能容忍很多其他地方根本无法容忍的事情。
And and so, yeah, there's sort of a there's there's some point where it'll be too crazy even for California, but California can get away with a lot of stuff you wouldn't get away with elsewhere.
在我看来，旧金山已经有点走得太远了。
San Francisco, my judgment, had gone a little bit too far.
也许人工智能这件事，是他们又发现了一个巨大的金矿，而且
Maybe the AI thing is they found one more giant gusher and, you
你知道，也许你的基金里并没有沙特的钱，我希望如此。
know Maybe you don't have any Saudi money in your fund, I hope.
几乎完全没有。
Virtually none.
没有。
No.
以防万一。
Just in case.
不过这里有个不同的问题，因为它触及了这件事的政治层面：似乎硅谷内部，甚至在公司管理方式上，都出现了一种政治维度上的转变。
Here's a different question though, because it gets to the politics of this, which is there's been it seems like a shift inside Silicon Valley and a shift in in terms of even the way the companies are managed around in a political dimension.
你显然非常直言不讳，你上次大选时支持了特朗普总统。
And and and you you were very outspoken, obviously, You supported President Trump in the last go round.
但我想听听你的看法，我也想深入探讨这一点。
But speak to what do you think and I want to get to that part too.
不过我想先请你谈谈硅谷的这种转变——至少从表象上看，它似乎从一个非常进步的地方变得没那么进步了。
But I I wanted you to speak first to the the shift in the valley, at least what seems like a shift perception wise from being a very progressive place to maybe less so.
也许并没有。
Maybe not.
也许只是因为你知道，今天下午我和拉里·萨默斯聊过，他说有十个人在推特上特别吵闹。
Maybe it's just the You know, Larry Summers and I spoke this afternoon and he said there's, you know, 10 people he thinks are very loud on Twitter.
正因为如此，世界才误以为，像大卫·萨克斯、以及其他一些人，还有埃隆·马斯克，他们的声音具有代表性，但实际上并非如此。
And that's why the world thinks, you know, that between David Sacks and, you know, a bunch of other people, and Elon Musk, that's not representative.
但我认为你可能有不同的看法。
But I think you may have a different view.
嗯，我认为你不可能让大多数科技从业者支持特朗普而非拜登之类的候选人。
Well, you know, I I I don't think I think you'll get a majority of tech people to support Trump over Biden or anything like that.
但我认为支持特朗普的人数会比四年前或八年前多得多。
I think you'll get way more than you had four or eight years ago.
所以，我不知道你是在衡量相对的变化，还是绝对的数量。
So, you know, I don't know if you're if you're measuring a relative shift or an absolute number.
这两者可能是对此不同的两种衡量方式。
Those those are those are probably two different measures on that.
但我会说，如果我们换一个完全不同的问题，比如极端的‘觉醒文化’，或者我不知道该叫它什么，那么在优秀的科技创始人、初创公司CEO以及相当广泛的人群中，很可能存在一种共识：这种现象已经走得太远了。
But I would say that if we ask a very different question about, let's say, you know, extreme wokeness, or I don't even know what you're supposed to call it, there is probably, you know, a broad consensus among the good tech founders, start up CEOs, people across a pretty broad range that it's gone way too far.
我跟很多这样的人谈过。
I talked to a lot of these people.
他们中的很多人，我想说，是更偏向中间派的民主党人，但确实，我们需要一个秘密计划来对抗这种现象。
A lot of them are, you know, I'd say more centrist Democrats, but it is just, you know, we need to have a secret plan to fight fight this.
他们在私下告诉我的情况，远比他们敢在公开场合说的要严重得多。
And they are what they tell me behind closed doors is way way tougher than what they they dare say in public.
所以我们需要制定一个计划，减少从旧金山招聘人员，因为那里的人、员工是最疯狂的。
And so it is like, you know, we need to have a plan to hire fewer people from San Francisco because that's where the people the employees are the craziest.
所以如果你想拥有一个不那么激进的员工队伍，我们就需要设定目标，逐步将公司从旧金山迁出。
So if wanna if you wanna have a less woke workforce, we need to you know, we're have targets about how we steadily move our company out of San Francisco specifically.
而且，是的，这些正是我曾经参与过的对话，你呢？
And and yeah, these are these are the sort of conversations that I've And do you
你同意这个观点吗？
agree with this?
顺便说一下，让我告诉你，你可能知道亚历克斯·奥茨温格，他是Scale AI的首席执行官。
And by the way, let me just read you probably know you probably know Alex Outswing as Scale AI CEO.
是的。
Yes.
他说他建立了一个以绩效为基础的招聘计划。
Who said that he's he's put together what he calls a a merit based hiring program.
他说他已经取消了多元化、公平与包容（DEI）政策。
He said he's rid of DEI.
他说，按 merit 招聘将成为 Scale 的永久政策。
He says hiring on merit will be a permanent policy at scale.
每当我们邀请某人加入我们的使命时，这都是一件大事。
It's a big deal whenever we invite someone to join our mission.
这些决定从未受到教条、道德表演或任何当前潮流的影响，我认为我们的指导原则是 MEI： merit、卓越和智慧。
And those decisions have never been swayed by orthodoxy or virtue signaling or whatever the current thing is, I think of our guiding principle as MEI, merit excellence and intelligence.
比尔·阿克曼进一步表示，他认为 DEI 本质上是一种种族主义和非法的运动。
Bill Ackman went on to say that he thinks DI is actually inherently a racist and illegal movement.
是的。
Yeah.
我再说一遍，我的感觉是，愿意像亚历克斯那样直言的人并不多，但我认为有很多人其实想法非常接近。
I I again, my my feel for is there aren't that many people who are willing to say what Alex says, but I think there are an awful lot of people are pretty close to thinking this.
他们曾经在某种程度上迎合了 DEI 的做法。
That, there were ways they leaned into the DEI thing.
这就像一种反特朗普的举动。
Was like an anti Trump thing.
当时一切都围绕特朗普 polarization，尤其是在他总统任期的最后四年，你必须通过更加支持DEI来证明自己反特朗普。
It was like a and, you know, everything was sort of polarized around Trump for the last for the last four years of his presidency, and so you have to demonstrate that you're anti Trump by being even more pro DEI.
这当然不一定合乎逻辑，但人们确实不知不觉地陷入了这种截然不同的状态。
That's, of course, not necessarily a logical thing, but yes, people somehow ended up in this place that was very different.
然后，你知道，总会有人质疑是什么推动了企业中的DEI运动和觉醒文化。
Then, you know, there probably There always are questions what drove the DEI movement, the wokeness in these companies.
这可能是多重因素共同作用的结果。
It probably is overdetermined.
可能有一种自下而上的情况，你知道，那些被大学灌输了DEI理念的觉醒一代千禧年人。
There probably is a There's a bottom up, you know, woke millennial people who are brainwashed into DI in their colleges.
这是一种自下而上的理论。
That's sort of the bottom up theory.
还有一种我不太确定的说法。
There's sort of a I don't know.
还有一种 cynical 的企业版本，即公司领导层要么真的相信这套理念，要么把它当作管理和控制公司的某种手段。
There's sort of a cynical corporate version where this is you know, the leadership of the company either believed it or used it as sort of a as a way to manage and control their companies in certain ways.
你知道，我总觉得被低估的一点是，从政府监管的角度来看，可能也存在自上而下的压力：如果你不做DEI，迟早会惹上麻烦。
You know, the part that I always feel is a little bit underestimated is there was probably also some top down level from a government regulatory point of view where, you know, if you if you don't do DEI, there is some point where you get you do get in trouble.
你知道，如果你知道，我不确定，这属于
You know, if you if you know I don't know This is part
如今ESG运动的一部分。
of the ESG movement now.
我的意思是，我们之前聊过
Mean, look, we talked
我们在这里讨论ESG很久了，曾经有过ESG运动，然后可能还有各种政府版本。
There about ESG here for long was an ESG movement and then there were probably all these governmental versions.
所以，我不知道，我心目中硅谷仍然最‘觉醒’的公司，大概就是谷歌这样的企业。
And so, I don't know, this would be probably my candidate for the company in Silicon Valley that's still probably the most woke, would something like Google.
它没有两三年前那么‘觉醒’了，但某种程度上，你知道，他们在搜索领域拥有绝对垄断，因此如果‘觉醒’是一种奢侈品，那么你越是垄断，就越有资本去承担它。
And it's less woke than it was two, three years ago, but in some ways, you know, they have a total monopoly in search and so there's sort of some way in which, you know, if wokeness is a luxury good, you afford it more if you're a monopoly than if you're not.
而对于谷歌这样一家大型垄断企业来说，问题在于它始终会面临来自政府的更大监管压力。
And then the problem for Google as a pretty big monopoly is that it's always gonna be subject to a lot more regulatory pressure from the government.
所以如果你有一个像Gemini这样的Gemini AI引擎，它会荒诞可笑地生成这些黑人女性纳粹。
And so if you have something like the Gemini the Gemini AI engine and you you know, and it's sort of this comical, absurdist thing where it generates these black women Nazis.
你知道，你本该找出著名的纳粹，但多样性标准却被全面应用，于是它就生成了虚假的黑人女性纳粹，这在我看来有点过于进步了。
You know, and you're supposed to find famous Nazis, and then the diversity criterion gets applied across the board, so it just generates fake black women who are Nazis, which is, you know, a little bit too progressive, I think.
但如果你从更大的政治背景来看，谷歌永远不会因此惹上麻烦。
But but but then but then if you think of it in terms of this larger political context, Google will never get in trouble for that.
联邦贸易委员会永远不会因为虚假信息之类的事情起诉他们。
The FTC will never sue them for misinformation or anything like that.
那些东西根本不会被核实事实。
That that's not that that stuff does not get fact checked.
你其实不会真的惹上麻烦，甚至可能还会得到一些保护，因为你知道，你是在顺应ESG人士或政府的觉醒指令。
You don't really get in trouble, and you probably even get some protection where, okay, you know, you are you're you're going along with the the woke directives from the ESG people or the government.
也许你做得有点过头了，但我们相信你在其他方面是可靠的。
Maybe you overdid it a little bit, but we we we trust you to be good in other things.
所以，如果你是一个大型的准监管垄断企业，可能会有完全不同的考量。
So there may be a very different calculus if you're a sort of a large quasi regulated monopoly.
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让我谈谈大型准监管垄断企业以及集中度的问题，但我想读一段你十年前在书中关于谷歌作为垄断企业的实际论述。
Let me ask about large quasi regulated monopolies and also concentration, but I want to read you This is something you actually wrote in your book ten years ago about Google and it being a monopoly.
你说过，由于谷歌不必担心任何竞争对手，它有更大的自由去关注其员工、产品以及对更广泛世界的影响。
Said, since it doesn't have to worry about competing with anyone, it has wider latitude to care about its workers, its products, and its impact on the wider world.
谷歌的座右铭‘不作恶’，部分是一种品牌策略，但也体现了一种成功到足以认真对待道德而不危及自身生存的商业模式。
Google's motto, don't be evil, is in part a branding ploy, but it's also characteristic of a kind of business that's successful enough to take ethics seriously without jeopardizing its own existence.
在商业中，金钱要么很重要，要么就是一切。
In business, money is either an important thing or it's everything.
垄断者无法负担得起去思考赚钱以外的事情。
Monopolists can't afford to think about things other than making money.
非垄断者也无法做到。
Non monopolists can't.
在完全竞争中，企业过于关注眼前的利润，根本不可能规划长期未来。
In a perfect competition, a business is so focused on today's margin that it can't possibly plan for a long term future.
只有一种东西能让企业超越每日为生存而进行的残酷斗争，那就是垄断利润。
Only one thing can allow a business to transcend the daily brute struggle for survival, monopoly profits.
那么，您当时是支持垄断理念还是反对呢？
Were you writing in favor then of the monopoly idea or against?
哦，我，我会说，嗯，你看，我的书是给你提供从内部出发的建议，你总是想做类似谷歌那样的事情。
Oh, I I will I I well, look, my my book was giving you advice for what to do and and from the inside, you always want to do something like what Google did.
如果你正在创办一家公司，你知道，竞争是给失败者准备的。
If you're starting a company, you know, it's always a Competition is for losers.
或者，你知道，资本主义和竞争。
Or, you know, capitalism and competition.
人们总是说它们是同义词。
People always say they're synonyms.
我认为它们是反义词。
I think they're antonyms.
因为，如果你处于完全竞争中，你会把所有的利润都竞争掉。
Because, you know, if you have perfect competition, you compete away all the capital.
如果你想体验达尔文式的残酷竞争，血淋淋的弱肉强食，你就该去开一家餐厅。
If you want to have Darwinian competition bared red in tooth and claw, you should open a restaurant.
这简直是个糟糕透顶的生意。
It's like an awful, awful business.
你永远赚不到钱。
You will never make any money.
这是完全竞争且完全非资本主义的。
It's perfectly competitive and completely non capitalist.
所以从内部来看，你总是想追求类似垄断的东西。
And so so from the inside, you want to always go for for for something like like Monopoly.
而且，在我书中的其他部分，我也做了补充说明：你知道，有些动态垄断企业发明了新事物，为世界创造了新东西，我们通过专利之类的方式奖励它们。
And then and then, yes, there are in other parts of my book, also qualify it that, you know, there are you know, there are dynamic monopolies that invent something new, that create something new for the world, we reward them with patents or, you know, sorts of things like that that that they get.
但到了某个时候，这些垄断企业总是有变坏的风险。
And then at some point, there's always a risk that that these monopolies go bad.
它们会变得像在桥上收过路费的拦路贼一样。
That they become like a, you know, like a troll collecting a toll at a bridge.
它们不再具有活力。
That they're not dynamic.
而且它们逐渐变成了那种臃肿的
And that they sort of become that fat
我们到了吗？
Are we there yet?
我的意思是，如果莱娜·汗坐在这里，她会说，我们早就到了。
I mean, Lena Khan, if she was sitting here, would say, we got there a long time ago.
我想，如果我要为谷歌辩护，我会说，即使它以一种荒唐的觉醒方式运作，即使它有点像在桥上收过路费，它仍然比莱娜·汗为这家公司设想的任何完全破坏性的路径要好得多。
I I think man, I I I there are all these all these ways I would I would if I had to defend Google, and I I would still say that that it's it's still better run even in its silly woke way, even in a in a slightly troll like toll collecting way than whatever completely destructive path Lena Khan would have for the company.
所以我们仍然从谷歌那里获得更多的好处，因为
And so we're still getting more good from Google as
你对所有这些大型科技公司都有这样的看法吗？
Do it you feel that way about all the big tech companies?
你是否投资了很多需要通过苹果手机应用商店获取渠道的小公司？
Do you have lots of investments in smaller companies that need to access the App Store on Apple's phone.
你有没有想过，这些渠道应该被开放？
Do you say to yourself that that should be opened up?
你是否认为他们创建了应用商店，因此就应该控制它？
Do you say they they created the store, therefore they should control the store?
你怎么看待这类问题？
How do you think about that kind of stuff?
确实，这些问题都相当复杂。
There sort of are there yeah, there sort of are a lot of complicated questions on all these things.
显然，它们的规模大得多。
It's obviously yeah, they're much bigger.
在这些问题上，我们如今所处的位置与十年前你所处的已经大不相同。
We're in a very different place from where you were you were ten years ago on these things.
我仍然担心，在许多情况下，补救措施比问题本身更糟糕。
I I still worry that in many cases, the remedy is worse than the disease.
很多这类企业，你知道，如果你面对的是自然垄断，解决办法并不是拆分它。
A lot of these businesses are, you know you know, if if you have a natural monopoly, the remedy is not to break it up.
解决办法应该是像对待公用事业公司那样，对其进行监管、征税或采取其他类似措施。
The remedy is it's like a utility company, then the remedy is to, you know, regulate it or tax it or do various things like that.
所以，如果你能让我相信，我们作为公用事业公司是令人欣喜的，那么也许解决办法就是做类似的事情。
So if you if you could convince me that we are ecstatic as a utility company, then then maybe the the remedy is to to do something like that.
但你知道，就我们社会中真正的垄断问题而言，我认为更多是这些旧经济中的敲诈性公司。
But but, know, the you know, to to the extent the the the real monopoly problems in our society, I think, are are much more these old economy racket like companies.
你知道，我在疫情期间在茂宜岛待了三个月，那里只有一家医院。
You know, I I spent three months during COVID in in Maui, and there's like a there's a single hospital in Maui.
在夏威夷群岛，有一种情况，如果你感到疼痛，就得坐飞机离开。
And the line the Hawaiian Island, and there was sort of this line, if you have a pain, get on a plane.
因为这是一个地方性的垄断行为。
Because it's a local racket.
它完全管理不善。
It's completely mismanaged.
而我们社会中真正功能失调的垄断，可能就是这些控制本地市场的大型企业，它们完全是纯粹的掠夺性行为。
And and that's probably, you know, the the really dysfunctional monopolies in our society are these, you know, pretty big ones that control these local markets and that are, you know, a 100% troll collecting.
即使我对谷歌这样的公司有诸多疑虑，我认为它在道德上也远胜于你当地的医院。
And I I think I think even with all my misgivings about something like Google, it is a vastly morally superior place to your local hospital.
你怎么看待AI背景下的这种情况？
How do you feel about it in the context of AI?
也就是说，如果你相信AI是一种变革性的产品，并且未来只有三到四个玩家会控制所有这些模型，无论是谷歌、微软与OpenAI，还是可能的亚马逊。
Which is to say that if you believe AI is this transformative product and that there's only going to be three or four players who are going to control all of these models, whether it be Google or Microsoft with OpenAI or maybe an Amazon along the way.
我不知道你觉得苹果在这场对话中会处于什么位置。
I don't know where you think Apple is going to land in this conversation.
但这是好事还是坏事？
But is that a good thing or a bad thing?
此外，作为一位关注初创企业的投资者，你如何评估那些可能被轻易淘汰的初创公司？因为我可以直接用AI构建我的应用，然后直接复制你的成果。
And also, would argue, even as an investor who looks at startups, how do you even look at startups down the line that could effectively get competed away because I'm going to basically build my app with AI, and I'm just going to copy what you've made?
我认为，这与消费互联网类型的企业处于非常不同的位置。
Well, I think I think it's I think it's in a very different place from the consumer Internet type businesses or which yeah.
它们已经存在了几十年。
There's been a history they've been around for for decades.
如果我要提出反对谷歌的观点，那就是他们在2002年就赢得了搜索市场的胜利。
If I you know, if I had to make the anti Google argument, it would be, you know, they they they won at search in 2002.
过去二十一年到二十二年里，一直没有真正的竞争对手。
And there's been no serious competition for twenty one, twenty two years.
他们在2002年击败了微软和雅虎。
They beat Microsoft and Yahoo in 2002.
然后，你知道，要打破这种局面真的很难。
And and then, you know, it's it's somehow very hard to disrupt that.
然后我认为，AI这一部分非常不稳定。
And then I think I think the AI piece is extremely fluid.
很难说清楚。
It's extremely hard to know.
很难知道价值在哪里。
It's very hard to know where the value is.
正如我所说，目前明显的垄断者是英伟达。
And as I said, it's like the obvious monopoly right now is NVIDIA.
但这种地位似乎并不稳固。
And but it doesn't seem that durable.
你知道，如果你认为英伟达和谷歌一样持久，那它的股价真的很便宜。
That's know, if you thought NVIDIA is as durable as Google, I mean, the stock's really cheap.
你会疯狂地买入。
You just buy it like crazy.
所以市场定价告诉你的意思是：是的，他们拥有暂时的垄断，但并不稳固。
And so the what the market pricing is telling you is, yeah, they have a temporary monopoly, but it's not very robust.
至于软件公司层面，我担心的是，OpenAI已经领先了。
And then on the on the level of the software companies, I worry that it's know, OpenAI has a lead.
其他各种公司都会很快赶上来。
All sorts of other people, you know, are gonna be able to catch up pretty quickly.
而且确实是这样。
And it's yeah.
如果有三四个公司在做同样的事情，那比只有一个要强得多。
If you have three or four doing the same thing, that's a lot more than one.
这是完全不同的经济模式。
Very very very different set of economics.
我想再次转换话题，因为另一个你投资过并公开谈论过的资产是比特币。
I wanna pivot the conversation again because another investment that you've made and been very public about is Bitcoin.
你一直是一个非常坚定的多头。
And you have remained a very big bull.
你曾公开表示，比特币的头号敌人就是来自奥马哈的那个精神病老年绅士，你把他描述为沃伦·巴菲特。
You have come out publicly and you said that enemy number one to Bitcoin is the sociopathic grandpa from Omaha that you described as Warren Buffett.
你能告诉我，你当时说那番话时是怎么想的吗？
Can you tell me what you were thinking when you said that?
这引来了很多笑声。
It got a lot of laughs.
所以，某种程度上，这句话可能确实触碰到了某些神经。
So somehow, it probably had some kind of a nerve.
但那是我在2022年一场比特币大会上演讲时说的。
But it it was it the the you know, the in in in it was in in a twenty twenty two Bitcoin convention talk I gave.
当时我提到了三个不同的对手。
And and the I had there were there were three separate enemies.
有杰米·戴蒙、拉里
There was Jamie Dimon, Larry
拉里·芬克，不过顺便说一句，他现在已经不是敌人了。
Larry Fink, who's no longer an enemy, by the way.
是的。
Yeah.
他有点转变了，也许是我，但不管怎样，我可以把关于拉里·芬克的事儿留到以后再说。
He sort of he sort of shifted, maybe that maybe I but anyway, let's I'll I can save the mantle Larry Fink things too.
但还有沃伦·巴菲特，当时的背景大致是：我的某种政治和社会学分析认为，加密货币是一场革命性的青年运动，但要真正取得成功，不能仅仅像1968年那样只是一场学生起义。
But and then there was and then there was Warren Buffett, and the the rough context was, you know, I my my sort of I don't know, political sociological analysis was the cryptocurrencies were it was a revolutionary youth movement, but for them to really take over, you needed you needed it couldn't just be a student uprising like 1968.
你必须让社会的其他部分也加入进来。
You needed to get the rest of the society on board.
只要老年人还袖手旁观，那就是加密货币迈向下一个阶段的最大障碍。
And and as long as the old people were gonna sit on their hands, that was the big blocker for cryptocurrencies to go to the next level.
你到现在还这么坚信吗？
Are you still convinced?
我认为通过比特币ETF，部分障碍已经被打破了。
I think it's gotten partially unlocked with the the Bitcoin ETF.
但另一方面，我比较不确信的是，比特币或这些加密货币作为一种赛博朋克、加密无政府主义、自由意志主义、反中心化政府理念的意识形态创始愿景。
But then there you know, probably the the part where I'm less less convinced of is this this question of the sort of ideological founding vision of Bitcoin or these cryptocurrencies as sort of a, you know, cypherpunk, crypto anarchist, libertarian, anti centralized government thing.
你知道，这一直是
Know, this is always the
这不正是让你对它产生兴趣的原因吗？
line Isn't that what got you interested in
这正是我最初觉得它非常棒的地方。
That's the first what I thought was terrific about it.
然后，问题是，它真的能这样运作吗？
And then, you know, the question is, does it really work that way?
还是说，这条线索不知怎的已经丢失了？
Or, you know, has that thread somehow gotten lost?
所以当FBI的人告诉我，他们宁愿罪犯使用比特币而不是100美元纸币时，这暗示着也许它并没有像原本设想的那样发挥作用。
And so when people in the FBI tell me that they'd much rather have criminals use bitcoin than $100 bills, it suggests that maybe, you know, maybe it's not quite not quite working the way it was supposed to.
你卖过你的比特币吗？
Have you sold any of your bitcoin?
我仍然持有一些。
I I still hold some.
是的，我知道，我本可以买得更多，但我没买，对此我感到自豪，我不确定它会从这里大幅上涨。
I yeah, I've, you know, there are all these ways I didn't buy as much as I should have, and I I'm proud I'm not sure it's gonna go up that dramatically from here.
从这里？
From here?
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得我们已经进入了ETF时代，我不清楚还有谁会从这里快速买入。
Think we got the ETF edition, and I don't know who else who else buys it quickly from here.
一些有趣的投资建议。
Some interesting investment advice.
这其实让我很惊讶，因为我觉得我从未听你说过你仍然全部投入。
That that that actually surprised me because I don't think I've heard you thought you were still all in.
我仍然持有一小部分仓位。
It it I I still have a small position.
它可能还会涨一些，但接下来的路会很动荡、很颠簸。
It it probably still can go up some, but it's going be a volatile bumpy ride.
我当初有双重原因。
And and I am I'm I was I had a dual reason.
一个是意识形态上的，我相信去中心化的计算未来，真的认为那会更好。
One was the sort of ideological, decentralized future of computing world that I really do believe in, really believe would be better.
很长一段时间里，它似乎是实现这一目标的完美工具，但我现在对这一点没那么确信了。
And it seemed like the perfect vehicle for that for such a long time, and I am just much less convinced of that.
所以，我
So I
有意思。
Interesting.
所以，也许拉里·芬克和贝莱德的ETF向反ESG势力屈服了，或者更可能是比特币已经被他们收编了。
So maybe Larry Fink, with the BlackRock ETF, surrendered to the forces, the anti ESG forces, or maybe it's it's more like Bitcoin's been co opted by by them.
我担心它曾经是
And I I worry it was
更像是后者。
more the latter.
好的。
Okay.
换个问题。
Different question.
SpaceX 是你另一个重大投资。
SpaceX, that's another big investment for you.
你在将埃隆·马斯克赶走后，又和他重归于好。
You after ousting Elon Musk, you you became friends with him again.
你对未来怎么看？
What does that look like to you in the future?
到头来，这会是你有史以来最大的投资吗？
Is that is that going to be the biggest investment you've ever made when this is all said and done?
天啊，我总是有点犹豫，不太愿意过度推销这些公司。
Man, it's it's I'm always sort of hesitant to to to sort of pitch pitch these companies too much.
但我认为，是的。
But I think Yeah.
我知道当时有很多不同的因素凑在了一起。
I know there were sort of a lot of different different things that came together.
你知道，当埃隆在二月份同时建造特斯拉和SpaceX时，人们都觉得他真的疯了。
You know, when Elon was building both Tesla and SpaceX in the February, I mean, people thought, you know, he was just really really crazy.
我想，就连那些曾经和他在贝宝共事过的人，也觉得……我知道大卫·萨克森曾想过写一本关于贝宝的书，而关于埃隆的那一章，标题大概是‘对风险一无所知的人’之类的东西。
And I think, you know, even even a lot of those of us who'd worked with him at PayPal, there was, you know, this I know there's this PayPal book that David Saxon and thought of writing and the, you know, the the Elon chapter was I think entitled something like the man who knew nothing about risk or something like this.
而且，我能讲出一大堆关于埃隆的疯狂故事。
And, you know, there are all these sort of crazy Elon stories I could tell.
如果这两家公司中有一家成功了，你可能会说，好吧，也许他只是运气特别好。
And then and then, you know, if one of the two companies had succeeded, you would say, well, maybe he still got really lucky.
但当两家在二月份被所有人认为完全荒谬的公司都成功了时，你不得不重新评估，也许我们其他人太过规避风险了，或者他对于风险有一种我们不了解的洞察力，类似这样的情况。
But when two out of two companies that people thought were completely harebrained in the February, when they they both succeed, Man, you have to you have to somehow reassess it and somehow the rest of us somehow are too risk averse or there's something about risk he knows that we don't or or something like this.
所以，是的，我认为你没有投资特斯拉。
And so yes, I think there's You didn't invest in Tesla.
我们确实没有投资特斯拉。
We did not invest in Tesla.
我们本应该投资那一家的。
We should have invested in that one.
它在更早的时候就上市了。
It was public at a much earlier date.
而且我们通常有一个自我设定的限制，就是不投资上市公司。
And then there's always sort of a self imposed limitation that we tend not to invest in public companies.
风险基金的20%你本可以投，但那是上限，而且我认为他们是在2002年创立特斯拉的。
20% of a venture fund you could, but that was sort of the and I think the they started Tesla in 2002.
2010年上市。
Went public in 2010.
我记得2012年10月试驾Model S时，简直太惊艳了。
I remember test driving the Model S in October 2012, and it was just wow.
这真是一辆出色的车。
This is just a terrific car.
我认为正确的做法应该是等他们推出这款车，然后发现没人喜欢它。
And you could have I think the correct thing would have been to wait till they came out with it, and then nobody liked it.
那是一只人人憎恨、被大量做空的股票，你本可以只是等上十年，直接在公开市场上买入股票，十八个月内就能赚十倍，再过六七年就能赚一百倍。
It was such a, you know, hated stock, shorted by everybody, and you could have just wait wait ten years and just bought the shares in the public market, you would have made 10 times your money in eighteen months and a 100 times in in the next, know, six, seven years.
七八年。
Seven, eight years.
还有关于SpaceX的事情，看起来像是个疯狂荒谬的点子，但实际上却非常直接。
And and then and then there was something also about SpaceX that looked like it was a very crazy, harebrained idea, and yet it was very straightforward.
你知道，就是火箭发射业务。
You know, it was the the launch rocket launch business.
如果政府或客户在你制造之前就为这些飞行器付款的话。
If you the government will pay or the customers pay for the vehicles before you build them.
所以从一开始就是现金流正向的业务，虽然他们需要一些资金用于扩张，但本质上是一个现金流良好的生意。
So it's actually cash flow positive from a very you know, there's some money they needed for expansion, but it was it was basically a cash flow positive business.
2008年这是一项奇怪的投资。
It was a weird investment in 2008.
他们根本不需要这些钱。
They didn't need any of the money.
但我认为，有一些NASA或政府的规定要求他们必须有外部投资者。
But there was some I think some NASA or government rule where they needed outside investors.
所以他们被迫接受投资者，而由于我们关系不错，我们就这么做了，而其他人都觉得这太疯狂了。
And so they were forced to take investors and you know, we we're on good enough terms that we did it and everyone else thought it was too crazy.
如果你是特斯拉的股东，我们都读过相关报道，你会给他这么高的薪酬包吗？
If you had been a Tesla shareholder, we've all been reading about it, would have you paid him the big compensation package?
我会说，我认为更细致的答案是，我会投票支持这个薪酬方案，因为你知道，如果失败了，第二天股价会大幅下跌，因为人们会怀疑埃隆是否会辞职，这对公司来说是坏事。
I would have Well, I I I think the I think the nuanced answer is I would have voted in favor of the compensation package because you would know that if it failed, the share price would have gone down a lot the next day because people would wonder whether Elon would quit and that would be bad for the company.
所以，无论你是否认同这个方案，理性做法都是投票支持，如果你觉得这是个坏主意，也许可以在股价上涨后卖出股票之类的。
So whether you believe in the package or not, the rational thing would be that you should And vote for then if you think it's a bad idea, maybe you sell your shares after you get a pop or something like this.
因此，这就是为什么埃隆无论怎样都会赢得这次投票的明显博弈论原因。
So and that that that's the obvious game theory on why Elon was gonna win that vote no matter what.
而且我们真的特别疯狂，竟然听信了媒体上的那些人，我相信你也一样，他们都说这是个荒谬的主意，股东们都会投反对票。
And and it was it was really crazy that that we listened to people in the media, and I'm sure yourself, but who who all saying it was this harebrained thing and the shareholders were all going to vote against it.
如果你只是做了基本的分析，就会很明显地看出，无论股东们怎么想，埃隆都会赢得这次投票。
If you just did the basic analysis, it was obvious Elon was going to win the vote regardless what the shareholder What did
你对他投资X有什么看法？
you think of him investing in X?
顺便问一下，X就是他想要的PayPal那样的东西，你觉得呢？
Did you he think by the way, X is what he wants he wanted PayPal to be.
你有没有给他钱支持这个项目？
Did you did you give him money for that?
我们确实投了钱，是的。
I we we we did yeah.
我们在Twitter这个项目上什么都没做。
We we didn't do we didn't do anything on the on the on the Twitter one.
我们也没有参与当前的X AI公司。
We didn't do anything on the on the on the current x AI company.
我想，有很多带'X'字的东西都和埃隆有关。
I guess there's sort a lot of different things that have x in the name with Elon.
但不过，说实话，我不确定。
But but it but yeah, it basically I I don't know.
我觉得这简直太重要了，我认为我们的社会需要更广泛的辩论空间，所以我觉得，这些复杂的权衡——比如到底该压制多少言论——确实很关键。
I I I think it was a incredibly you know, I do think we need like a broader surface area for debate in our society, and so and so I think and you know, all these very complicated trade offs between you know, how much speech do you suppress?
我们到底压制了多少有益的言论呢？
How much, you know, know, how much good speech are we suppressing?
我们又放任了多少有害的言论？
How much bad speech are we allowing?
你该怎么正确把握这些权衡？
How do you get those trade offs right?
这真的非常难做到。
Very very hard to do.
我的判断是，我们应该为辩论和讨论提供更多的空间。
My my judgment is, you know, we should have just a lot more surface area for debate discussion.
我认为埃隆对推特所做的事极其重要，我从意识形态上支持这一举措。
And I think what, you know, what Elon did with Twitter was I think extremely important, and I I I support it as an ideological project.
好的。
Okay.
但我担心它作为一项财务事业能否成功。
I I worry about it as a as a financial as a as a financial thing.
我不知道这是否行得通。
I don't I don't know if that works.
这些年来，我们已经反复观察过了。
You know, we've we've looked over the years.
我们一次次地考虑过，是否可以创办一家媒体公司，总有人会想：在右翼媒体领域，难道就不能做点别的吗？
We've looked over and over again at, you know, starting some kind of media company and there's always sort of this thought you could do Can't you do something else in the sort of right of center media space?
难道非得跟福克斯新闻一样无聊吗？
And, you know, does it have to all be as lame as Fox News?
难道就没有机会做点别的吗？
You know, can't isn't there an opening to do something else?
然后你总是要问的问题是，是不是默多克家族让这一切变得如此平庸？
And then the question you always have to ask is it, you know, is it is it the Murdoch family that keeps it lame?
还是说
Or is it
你为什么觉得它平庸？
Why do you why do you think you called it lame.
所以你为什么认为
So why do you think
它平庸？
it's lame?
我觉得它平庸，是因为他们受广告商控制。
I think it's lame because they're controlled by the advertisers.
他们的活动范围非常狭窄，有很严格的限制。
And there's there's a very there's a there's a very narrow limit on what they they can do.
而关于埃隆和推特的问题是，你知道，你真的可以这样做，同时还能留住广告商吗？
And then the the Elon question with Twitter was, you know, are you really allowed to do this and keep the advertisers?
所以这就是问题所在
And so that's that's where
你会让它更难吗？
Would you make it harder?
埃隆作为非营利组织所做的事情非常重要。
It's it's super important what Elon did as a as a nonprofit.
但确实是。
But it's yeah.
它可能不会，但这作为一项
It may it may not it it's gonna be tough as a
那Truth Social呢？
What about what about Truth Social?
他们首先还有其他一些问题需要解决。
They have a have a few other problems they have to solve first.
这不是你会投资的东西。
Not something you'd invest in.
你能理解60亿美元的估值吗？
You get your head around the $6,000,000,000 valuation.
你知道，如果有人想秘密地向特朗普竞选团队输送资金，规避竞选资金限制，让股价上涨，然后他就能卖出股票来资助竞选。
You know, if if wanted to secretly funnel money to the Trump campaign violation, you know, get around the campaign limitations so the stock price goes up and he can sell some stock and fund his campaign.
那会是一个投资的理由。
That be a reason to invest.
你认为有人在这么做吗？
Do you think people are doing that?
可能没有。
Probably not.
他们可能不会这么字面地去想，但也许这正是背后的原因。
They probably don't think of it in quite that literal term, but that's maybe that's what's
你知道吗？在你的圈子里，你有没有跟人聊过，他们说过，嘿，这个……
You know people who have have you talked to people in in your realm who've said, hey, this
没人说过这种话。
is nobody's nobody's nobody's said that.
但，是的。
But but yeah.
我怀疑很多投资者都会投票给特朗普。
It's probably I suspect a lot of the investors are gonna vote for Trump.
所以他们至少在某种潜意识、未明确表达的层面上在考虑这个问题。
So they're they're thinking about it at least on some subconscious, not articulated level.
当然。
Sure.
我想再谈一谈特朗普，就再花一秒，但我还想问你最后一个相关的问题，关于社交媒体：外科医生总管曾来过阿斯彭。
I want to talk about Trump a little more about Trump for just one more second, but I want to ask you one last one last related social media question, which is the Surgeon General was here in Aspen.
我想你最近几周也看到了，他明确表示，社交媒体和Facebook之类的应用确实对国内的年轻人造成了真正的伤害。
And I think you've probably seen in the last couple of weeks that he came out and genuinely believes that social media and the Facebooks of the world really have done a real disservice to young people in in in the country.
作为早期投资Facebook的人，我想知道你怎么看这一点。
And I just wonder what you think of that, as somebody who invested early in Facebook.
天啊，我认为他并非完全错误。
Man, there's a I I I think, you know, I I can't say that he's 100% wrong.
我总是反对的一点是，把科技或社交媒体公司当作我们所有问题的替罪羊实在太容易了。
I The place where I always push back on is that I feel it's it's too easy to turn tech or the social media companies into the scapegoat for all of our problems.
所以，是的，人们对科技公司确实可以提出一些有趣的批评。
And so, yes, there's probably there is some kind of a interesting critique one can make of the tech companies.
如果你问这些公司的高管们，他们让自己的孩子每天使用多少屏幕时间？
And if you ask how many of the executives in in those companies, how how much screen time do they let their kids use?
你可能会提出一个有趣的批评：你自己是怎么做的？
And there's probably sort of an interesting critique one could make What do you do?
不多。
Not very much.
你说不多是指什么？
And I think that's very What's not very much?
每周一个半小时。
An hour and a half a week.
每周一个半小时？
Hour and a half a week?
差不多就是这样。
Something like that.
你的孩子多大了？
How old how old are your kids?
三岁半，五岁。
Three and a half, five years.
三岁半和五岁。
Three and a half and five years old.
好的。
Okay.
但我觉得，如果我要提出反科技的论点，那就是科技行业里很可能有很多人对自己的孩子也采取了类似的做法，这可能会引发一些值得思考的问题。
But but but and I think I think that that is sort of if I had to do the if I if I were to make the anti tech argument, it's that there are probably a lot of people in tech who do something quite similar for their own families, and that and there's some questions that that might lead you to ask.
另一方面，我不认为这是导致我们各种社会功能失调的主要原因，可能只占百分之十五到二十左右。
And then on the on the other hand, it you know, I don't think this is, you know, the main cause for all the different types of social dysfunction we have And it's maybe it's a fifteen percent, 20% cause, you know.
我们的社会中还有许多其他方面已经严重失控了。
There's you know, there's there's sort of a lot of other things that have gone super haywire in our society.
把所有责任都归咎于科技或某一家公司，实际上是在忽视许多其他问题。
And and by putting all the blame onto, you know, this this onto tech or onto one company, you are, you know, really ignoring a lot of other stuff.
我们可以就此举办一场完整的讨论会，但还有一个相关的问题，因为我们还没提到：TikTok。
We could do a whole panel on this, but one related question because we haven't mentioned it, TikTok.
你认为TikTok是一种国家安全威胁吗？
Do you think of TikTok as a national security threat?
是的。
It's yeah.
它确实很奇怪，因为显然TikTok在美国的算法与中国字节跳动的算法大不相同。
It's it's it's it's it's very it's a it's there's something very strange going on since obviously the TikTok algorithms for The US are very different from the ByteDance algorithms in China.
所以。
And so
你会在这个国家封禁它吗？
Would you shut would you shut it down in this country?
我想我可能会倾向于采取更严厉的措施。
I think I I probably would would lean towards towards a a tougher response.
我想，从规范性转向现实，我认为我们什么也做不了。
I I think just to shift from the normative to this, I don't think we're gonna do anything.
你知道，去年夏天我见过字节跳动的CEO，就是那个新加坡人，TikTok的CEO。
You know, I I met the TikTok CEO last summer and I I I I the Singaporean guy, TikTok CEO.
我告诉他，不必担心TikTok会被美国封禁。
And I and I told him he didn't need to worry about it being shut down in The US.
也许我错了，但我认为……
And maybe I'm wrong, but I think
你知道吗？
Because you know something?
因为我们会一直无能、迟缓、官僚，除非中国入侵台湾的那一天，否则我们永远无法有效应对中国带来的问题，而到那时，TikTok会在24小时内被关闭。
Because because it it will not we are incompetent and slow and bureaucratic, and we will never get our act together in dealing with the problems of China until the day they invade Taiwan, and then it will be shut down within twenty four hours.
鉴于我认为未来五年内中国入侵台湾的可能性是五五开，我给TikTokCEO的建议是：赶紧把所有员工和服务器都撤出中国，因为一旦台湾被入侵，就太迟了。
And and since I think there's a fifty fifty chance that China will invade Taiwan in the next five years, my advice to the TikTok CEO was you should take all your people and computers and get them out of China because once once once Taiwan gets invaded, it'll be it'll be too late.
这就是我的建议。
So that's that's my advice.
但在那之前，你不必担心我们会采取任何行动。
But you don't need to worry about us doing anything before then.
他的回答有些模糊，你知道，我也不确定这是好是坏，他说他们仔细研究过第一次世界大战和第二次世界大战，当时有一些公司能够与战争中的各方进行贸易。
And then his somewhat, you know, his somewhat, I'm not sure, good or worrisome answer was that they had studied World War one and World War two very carefully and there were a bunch of companies that were able to trade with all sides in those wars.
顺便说一句，这暗示他也认为中国会入侵台湾。
By the way, that implies that he also thinks that China is going to invade Taiwan.
他并没有，你知道，再次地，他并没有以决定论的方式表述这一点。
He he did not, you know again, it was again, didn't frame it deterministically.
我说过，五年内有50%的可能性。
I said 50% chance, five years.
我们已经超时了，但我们会再继续一会儿。
We are over time, but we're gonna keep going just for a little bit.
因为我答应过你，我们会聊一点政治，我想谈谈你自己的政治立场，你个人的政治观点。
Because I I promised you we're gonna talk a little bit about politics, and I wanna talk about your own politics, your own personal politics.
你上次曾非常公开地支持现在这位前总统。
You were very vocal and outspoken about supporting what who is now the former president the last time.
这次你没那么积极发声了。
You have been less outspoken this time.
我们今晚都会观看辩论。
We're all going to watch the debate tonight.
所以在我们深入探讨你学到的经验和你之前的私人经历之前，这次你打算支持总统吗？
So before we can get into the lessons and everything that you've you've learned and all of your private prior experience, are you planning to support the president this time?
你知道，我是说那位前总统。
You know, I The former president, I should say.
你要是把枪抵在我头上。
I you you hold a gun to my head.
我会我会投特朗普的票。
I I I I will I'll I'll I'll vote for Trump.
我宁愿他投票给特朗普，而不是拜登。
I'll still I'd rather I'd rather have him vote than Biden.
我不会给他的超级政治行动委员会捐钱，而且你知道，我会在这些方面尽量少参与。
I'm not gonna give any money to his super PAC, and you know, I'm gonna be be be be less involved in in all these ways.
然后，你看，确实是这样，但我也不确定。
And and then, look, it's it's it is and then I I don't know.
我觉得，你知道，我觉得特朗普会赢。
I think, you know, I think I think Trump will win.
我觉得他会赢得相当稳固。
I think he will win quite quite solidly.
这根本不会是场接近的选举，我不这么认为。
It it it it's not I don't think it's gonna even be close.
然后，我悲观的前瞻视角是，他赢了之后，会有很多选民后悔，因为选举就像A/B测试。
And then then my my pessimistic look ahead function is after he wins, there will be a lot of buyer's remorse because the elections are a b tests.
你知道，你让我为特朗普辩护，我不会，但我大概能列出一些反对拜登的理由。
You know, it's you ask me to make a pro Trump argument, I'm I wouldn't, but I can probably come up with anti Biden arguments.
拜登不会为自己辩护。
And Biden is not gonna make a pro Biden argument.
他会攻击特朗普。
He's gonna make anti Trump arguments.
这是我们彼此针对的两个不同的仇恨工厂，政治就是这样运作的。
And it's it's these it's these two different hate factories that we have targeted at each other, and that's that's the way the politics work.
我的判断是，特朗普会轻松赢得这场选举。
And I my my judgment is Trump will easily win that.
但没错，选举是一种相对选择。
But, yeah, the election is a relative choice.
选举之后才是绝对的。
The post election is absolute.
然后就会像这样，你知道，如果拜登赢了，我们会想：我们怎么会选出这么一位年迈昏聩的老人？
And then it'll be like, you know, if Biden wins, like, how did we get this senile old man?
如果特朗普赢了，人们会惊叹：哇。
And if if Trump wins, it'll be wow.
这你知道，
This is, you know
我能问你一个问题吗？
Can I ask you this?
这仍然像一场小丑秀，或者不管人们怎么说。
It's it's still like this this this clown show or whatever whatever people will say.
我不会让你去为特朗普辩护。
I'm not gonna ask you to make the pro Trump argument
那是可以理解的。
That's that's that's sort of understand.
但让我问问你，我猜想这可能是你的反科技巨头论点。
But let me ask you about what I imagine is your anti botan argument.
我回顾过去四年，对自己说：如果你在硅谷，持有这些科技公司的股票，过去四年里，它们几乎一直在上涨。
I look at the last four years and say to myself, if you were in Silicon Valley and you owned stock in these tech companies over the last four years, they virtually did nothing but go up.
我知道，我只是想知道，你是否能提出这个论点？我们可以谈莱娜·可汗，谈监管和潜在的税收等等，但我很难回顾过去四年，说——尤其是如果我坐在你的位置上——这是一场可怕的灾难。
And I know, and I just I wonder if you can make the argument because we can talk about Lena Khan, and we can talk about regulations and potential taxes and all sorts of things, but it's hard for me to look at the last four years and say, especially if I was sitting, I would imagine in your seat and say, this was a this was a terrible travesty.
但也许是我理解错了。
But maybe I maybe I don't understand.
嗯，说实话，我不知道。
Well, I mean, I I I don't know.
这可能让你难以置信，但我知道，我关心的不仅仅是这个国家对科技亿万富翁是否有利。
This this may not be believable to you, but I, you know, I I don't think it's the only thing I care about is whether the country is good for the tech billionaires.
我认为有很多人并没有以这种方式经历过去三四年。
And and I think there are a lot of people who have not experienced the last three or four years this way.
我认为卡维尔在刚才这场演讲之前提到的一点非常好，那就是民主党在18到35岁选民中的支持率出现了令人震惊的下滑，原因是你根本无法进入房地产市场。
I I think and one of the things Carville said in the earlier presentation just before this one that I thought was quite good was, you know, there's been a shocking loss of support by the Democrats in the, you know, eighteen to thirty five year voters, and it's because you can't get on the housing ladder.
你有沉重的大学贷款负担。
You you can you can, you know, the college debt's overwhelming.
你根本无法起步。
You can never get started.
所以人们有一种感觉，而且
So there's sort of a sense that And
你觉得他能解决这个问题吗？
you think he'd be able to fix that?
我不确定，我认为现在这仅仅是对现任者的支持与否的全民公投。
I don't I there's I think it's I think it's it's just an up down referendum on the incumbent at this point.
而且，我觉得大家普遍认为，拜登肯定无法解决这个问题，他的任期终将结束，然后就完了。
And, you know, the my my guess is that the sense is Biden's definitely not going to fix it and his time will will run out and that's and then and then prop no.
而这就是我不太兴奋的地方。
And then this is where I'm not overly excited.
我知道，我认为特朗普也不会特别解决这个问题。
I, know, I I don't think Trump will particularly fix it.
但你看，这里观众们的想法简直是天差地别。
But but look, the the place where people, you know, at at this in in the audience here, think are just maximally divergent.
是的。
Yes.
你们的股市对这里的人们来说一直表现优异。
Your your the stock market has been great for people here.
你们身处阿斯彭这个美好的泡沫中，感觉好像克林顿还是总统，还是1995年，每一天、每一方面都在变得更好，就像一种新时代的咒语，只要你们对自己这么说，它就是真的。
You're in this, wonderful bubble in Aspen where it's like, I know Clinton is still president and it's 1995, and and everything is just getting better every day in every way, and it's like some new age chant if you just say that to yourselves, it's true.
而特朗普言论中我认为最令人反感的部分，就是‘让美国再次伟大’，这个口号不仅对民主党人、对共和党人，尤其是对硅谷来说，都极具冒犯性，因为它是一个悲观的口号。
And and and then, you know, the the part of the Trump statement that I think was the most offensive thing he said, it was very offensive not just to, you know, Democrats and to republic to love republicans and especially Silicon Valley was make America great again, because that was a pessimistic slogan.
这是任何主要总统候选人曾说过最悲观的口号，因为它隐含地表示：这个国家不再伟大了。
It was the most pessimistic slogan a major presidential candidate ever had because of the what it says implicitly is this is no longer a great country.
对。
Right.
而你绝不能这么说，尤其是如果你是共和党人。
And that's what you are never supposed to say, especially if you're a republican.
这就是为什么我认为布什阵营的人可能比现场任何其他人都更讨厌他，你知道的。
That's why I think the Bush people probably hate him more than anybody in this audience, you know.
然后，硅谷的言论对纽约人来说有点冒犯，但华尔街的银行家们并不真觉得他们让国家变得更美好了，所以这并不让他们个人感到被冒犯。
And and then and then Silicon Valley was, you know it's somewhat offensive to people in New York City, but, you know, the bankers on Wall Street don't really think they're making the country a great place, so it's not personally offensive.
这对硅谷来说是个人层面的冒犯。
It was personally offensive to to Silicon Valley.
然而，我总是觉得，确实存在一种停滞的问题。
And and yet, I I I always think, you know, there is there is this this problem of stagnation.
我们陷入了困境。
There is this problem we're stuck.
有一种感觉，我们知道，我们在这些方面作为社会的进步，没有以前那么大了。
There's a sense that, you know, we are we're not progressing in all these ways as a society as as much as we have.
我不认为特朗普有所有答案，但我觉得，我在2016年说过的话是，解决这些问题的第一步至少是去谈论它们。
I don't I don't think Trump has all the answers, but I think, you know, the what I what I said in 2016 is the first step towards solving problems is at least talk about them.
那关于两极分化呢？关于不确定性，关于民主、法治以及国家未来的问题呢？
What about the polarization The polarization part, the uncertainty part, the questions about democracy, and the rule of law, and the future of of a country.
我觉得有很多人担心这些问题。
And I think there's a lot of people who worry about those things.
当然。
Sure.
那些问题依然存在，那些问题依然存在。
Those are those are all those are all still those are all still
如果拜登是总统，你可能就不会担心这些事了。
Those are things you probably wouldn't worry about if if Biden was the president.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得这个国家仍然非常分裂。
I I feel the country is still very polarized.
几十年来，这种分裂一直在加剧。
It's it's been getting it's been getting more polarized for decades.
你知道，八十年代针对博克的争议就已是一种新的分裂高潮。
You know, it was it was polarized against Bork in the eighties and, you know, that that was sort of a new crescendo and polarization.
福克斯新闻对克林顿夫妇的报道也极具分裂性。
There was way Fox News was polarized against the Clintons.
我们一直如此，但说实话，我不确定。
And we've been and I, you know, I don't know.
这总是个因果关系的问题。
It's it's always what's cause and effect.
是分裂导致了停滞，还是停滞导致了分裂？
Is the polarization causing the stagnation or does the stagnation lead
到我
to I
我认为，在一个一切都很好的国家里，不会出现这种两极分化。
I don't think the polarization happens in a country where everything's
这是一个语调问题。
a tonal question.
但再次遇到一个非常理智、通情达理的人时，我觉得。
But again come across a very sensible reasonable person, I think.
我的意思是，这里肯定有人会对你很多不同的观点表示不同意。
I mean, there are people who here I'm sure will disagree with you about lots of different issues.
但我关于语调的问题，关于总统以及总统的语气——顺便说一句，我得说明，我并不是在指责你，顺便说一下，你长期以来一直公开表明自己是共和党人。
But, my question about about tone, about the president and what the president and the tone of the president By the way, should say, and I'm not I'm not speaking out You of also, I would say, by the way, you've been a you're a public you've been a Republican for a long time now, public about that.
你同时也自豪地、公开地表明自己是同性恋者。
You're also proudly gay, openly so.
我想知道你是否能将这一点联系起来，我认为很多人说，总统特朗普在谈到美国一些与LGBT群体相关的问题以及其他人群时。
And and I wonder if you can tie, you know, I think there's a lot of people who say themselves that, you know, president president president Trump when he looks at it talks about some of the issues around LGBT issues in this country and other people.
那些社群中有些人表示，他们对此感到不安全。
People There are people in those communities who say they don't feel safe about it.
是的。
Yeah.
我们可以逐一讨论所有这些不同的版本。
Well, we can we can go through all all these all these different different versions of that.
我认为，至少特朗普从未考虑过推翻同性婚姻或类似的事情。
I think I mean, there was never any thought of reversing gay marriage or or any of those things by by by by Trump at least.
而且，我觉得，是的。
And and I think the and look, I think the the yeah.
有各种各样的方式。
There are all these ways.
它们并不是我表达这些事情的方式。
They are they're not the way I I would articulate these things.
但那种礼貌的语气，你知道，人们曾试图说，我们的国家出了大问题。
But, know, the the sort of polite tone, you know, there there was you know, the the people had attempted to say, you know, something's gone very wrong in our country.
房子着火了。
The house is on fire.
它正在彻底烧毁。
It's burning to the ground.
我们是一个正在衰退、停滞的社会，我的意思是，也许人工智能会拯救我们，但人们谈论人工智能的方式就是这样。
We are a society in decline, stagnation, where, you know I mean, maybe AI will will save us, but this is like the way people talk about AI.
我稍后再回到这一点。
I'll just come back to that.
如果这不能带来这种丰裕的增长，我的意思是，我们未来几十年将被预算赤字和债务彻底压垮。
It's like if if it doesn't lead to this cornucopian growth, I mean, we're just completely gonna be buried by budget deficits and debt for decades to come.
我觉得人工智能是个大事。
And it's it's like, I I think AI is a big thing.
它足够大到能解决我们的预算赤字问题吗？
Is it big enough to solve our budget deficit problem?
我不这么认为。
I I don't believe it is.
所以，是的，我们面临很多这些问题，总有一天，过度的礼貌就不再合适了。
And and so, yeah, we have we have we have we have a lot of these problems and at some point, you know, extra politeness is is is not quite the thing.
是的。
Yeah.
那是一种无声的呼救。
It was it was an inarticulate shriek for help.
回顾2016年我支持特朗普时，我的那种幻想完全是妄想，我以为这会是开启对话的方式。
And look, my my my sort of fantasy in 2016 in supporting Trump, this was where I was completely delusional, was this would be the way you start to have a conversation.
而这就是我选择退出的另一个原因。
And that we we that and and and that's why and that's what that's another reason why I'm off ramping.
我更愿意进行我们这样的对话，因为如果我完全站队支持特朗普，话题就会全围绕着他，我们就没法讨论其他真正能实质性解决问题的事情。
I'd much rather have the sort of conversation we had here because if, you know, if I lean in all the way to support Trump, it'll be all about that and we can't talk about all these other things, which is the way we are gonna substantively solve the problems.
谢谢您进行这场对话，并探讨了所有这些问题。
Well, wanna thank you for this conversation and for addressing all these issues.
这真是一场非凡的讨论。
It really was a phenomenal discussion.
非常感谢您。
Thank you so so much.
非常感谢
Thank you very
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