美联储主席调查、特朗普的石油交易与斯科特缺席原因解析

我的意思是，我们又入围了韦比奖。

I mean, we're up for Webbies again.

是的。

Yeah.

有一些。

There are

几个。

a couple.

拿了一个韦比奖。

Wins a Webbie.

大家都说，比如最佳男性联合主持人，他正经历着一场前所未中的中年危机。

Everyone's like everyone's like, you know, best male cohost who's going through the mother of all midlife crises.

他们已经决定，韦比奖和流媒体奖都需要赚钱。

It's like they've they've they've decided the Webbies and the Streamys have decided they need to make money.

是的。

Yeah.

所以他们向你收费，而且有上百万个类别。

So they charge you, and they have a million categories.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

嗯，我觉得这样也没问题。

Well, I don't that's fine.

我认为这已经是一个规模巨大的产业了，大概有40亿美元了吧。

I think it's a it's a huge it's a two point, what, $4,000,000,000 business now.

我的意思是，

I mean,

这是增长最快的媒体形式。

it's really fastest growing media.

它目前的增长速度比谷歌或Meta还快，尽管基数更小。

It's growing now faster than Google or or Meta off a smaller base.

但没错。

But Yeah.

我们以前说过这个。

We've said this before.

这是因为我们吸引的受众。

It's because of the audience we're attracting.

我们是天才。

We're geniuses.

现在我们要做整形手术了。

Now we're gonna have plastic surgery.

他们现在管这叫什么来着？

They don't call what do they call it now?

是整形手术吗？

Is it plastic surgery?

整容手术。

Cosmetic surgery.

抱怨。

Complaining.

我不知道。

I don't know.

但那

But that

我喜欢你这么做，因为我通过你过着另一种生活，我能了解到各种荒唐事。

I like you doing it because I'm I'm living vicariously through you because I find out all manner of nonsense.

你想开我的法拉利去棕榈滩吗？

Do you wanna drive my Ferrari in Palm Beach?

等等。

Wait.

你也买了法拉利？

Did you buy a Ferrari too?

我想想，我连车都没有，现在居然还在看一辆。

I'm think I I the fact I'm even looking at one I right now, I don't own a car.

现在，我没有车。

Right now, I don't own a car.

我我真的坐地铁。

I I I I literally I take the tube

回到美国。

coming back to The US.

我坐地铁，还用一个叫Wheelie的很棒的打车服务。

I take the tube, and I take this amazing ride hailing service called Wheelie.

当我在美国时，我用Lyft，因为我喜欢他们的CEO。

And when I'm in US, I take Lyft because I like the CEO.

他很有灵性。

He's very spiritual.

我真希望他能当我的拉比。

I I would like him to be my rabbi.

但不，我已经有好多年没买车了，但我真的在疯狂地关注法拉利。

But, no, I don't I I haven't owned a car in a bunch of years, but I'm seriously trolling Ferraris.

它们太美了。

They're so beautiful.

我想他们会说我很精致优雅，年轻女士，你应该和我来一次随意的性体验。

I think they would say that I'm refined and elegant, and young lady, you should have a random sexual experience with me.

不。

No.

我不这么认为。

Don't think so.

我觉得你应该考虑一下雪佛兰博尔特。

I think you should think about a Chevy Bolt.

嗯。

Yeah.

你根本就没考虑过，我真的不知道你能做什么。

Hasn't even entered like, you literally I don't know what you could do.

我不知道反向壮阳药叫什么，但对我来说，‘雪佛兰博尔特’就是那个意思。

I don't know what the opposite of an ED drug is, but that's what the term Chevy Bolt is for me.

我跟你说。

I am telling you.

看看我开我的雪佛兰博尔特有多棒。

Look how well I'm doing with my Chevy Bolt.

我很成功。

I'm successful.

我有一个美丽的妻子。

I have a beautiful wife.

我只是觉得，即使有博尔特，你也没有这一切。

I just don't I think you have all of that despite the Bolt.

不。

No.

它是

It's

尽管有博尔特。

in spite of the Bolt.

我觉得这个Bolt，我觉得这个Bolt其实说明了一点，你知道吗？

I think the Bolt I think the Bolt does say, you know what?

我不在乎。

I don't care.

是的。

Yeah.

我在看新的Rivian。

I'm looking at the new Rivian.

真的很酷。

It's really cool.

哦，那些很棒。

Oh, those are great.

我有新款的。

I have the new one.

顺便说一下，那是Aspen车。

It's the the Aspen car, by the way.

呃。

Ugh.

然后我不看Rivian了。

And then I'm not looking at the Rivian.

好吧。

Okay.

你说什么？

You say that?

当我的房子在阿斯彭建好时，你那栋阿斯彭的房子，真的会变成这样，嘿。

When my house is ready in Aspen, you're literally my house in Aspen, you're literally gonna be like, hey.

顺便说一下，我打算去阿斯彭一趟，没压力，但我希望能住那儿。

Just FYI, I'm swinging by Aspen, no pressure at all, but I'd like to stay there

度过春天。

for the spring.

住在那里。

To stay there.

我想在春天待在那里。

I'd like to stay there for the spring.

火灾。

Fires.

没有压力。

No pressure.

你可以拒绝，但我希望在Lucky春天见一下杰弗里·斯威舍以及我的叔叔和堂兄弟姐妹。

You can say no, but I'd like to meet Jeffrey Swisher and my uncles and cousins in Lucky for the spring.

这肯定会发生，所以别嘲笑阿斯彭。

That is so coming, so do not mock Aspen.

我是，我是，我是。

I'm It is so I I am

我正等着那一天。

waiting for that.

它是，是。

I it is is.

我觉得阿斯彭现在有点过头了。

I think Aspen is a little too much now.

我以前挺喜欢的。

I used to like it.

好像庞培有点太过分了。

It seems like something Pompey is little much.

太棒了。

Awesome.

太棒了。

Awesome.

好吧。

Alright.

太棒了。

Awesome.

我确实喜欢。

I do.

我现在就预订。

I'm putting in my reservation now.

好的。

Alright.

我们接下来从斯科特转到珍妮弗·雷nee，雷nee。

We're gonna move on from Scott to Jennifer Renee, Renee.

我们本来不想。

We didn't want to

任何事。

anything.

康妮·科尼什。

Connie Cornish.

康妮·康妮·科尼什。

Connie Connie Cornish.

康妮·康妮·科尼什不在整形外科。

Connie Connie Cornish is not at plastic surgery.

她的皮肤完美无瑕。

She has perfect skin.

我在整形外科时就会这样。

That's what happens to me at plastic surgery.

你坐在那儿，裹得像个他妈的妈妈，心里想着：阿迪·科尼什皮肤真好。

You're sitting there wrapped up like a fucking mommy going, Adi Cornish has perfect skin.

这就是我的一周。

That's that's my week.

你能让我告诉你吗？我们要感谢所有在这段创伤时期替你们顶班的人。

Can you can I tell you, we wanna thank everybody who filled in for you during this time of trauma for everybody?

唐·兰普金、卡梅隆·李、斯蒂芬妮·鲁尔和菲尔·科恩。

Don Lampkin, Cameron Lee, Stephanie Rule, and Phil Cohen.

谢谢。

Thank you.

她很有个性。

She was spicy.

我在鸦片类药物的影响下，对斯蒂芬妮做出了很多观察。

I figured out Stephanie's I came to so many observations under the influence of opiates.

斯蒂芬妮就像花生酱配巧克力，她聪明又带劲。

Stephanie's peanut butter and chocolate is she is smart and spicy.

她聪明又带劲。

She's smart and spicy.

嗯。

Yeah.

她就像那种热情但不拘一格又聪明的人。

She's like she's like hot but irreverent and smart.

嗯。

Yeah.

天哪。

Oh my god.

你现在在哪？

Where are you now?

你不得不跳过电视。

You had to skip TV.

我的天。

My god.

我昨晚不得不从洛杉矶飞回来。

I had to fly back from LA last night.

我不得不假装睡觉。

I had to try and pretend to sleep.

把你的脸露出来。

Show your face.

你好，雷美尔通。

Hello, Lunesta.

然后我接下来要去迈阿密做一个演讲，有这个在，应该会很有趣

And then I'm going after this, I go to Miami for a speaking gig, which should be interesting with this

我刚去过那里。

I was just there.

就凭这张脸。

With this face.

嗯。

Yeah.

我朋友说他看到你了。

My friend said he saw you.

嗯。

Yeah.

然后我周三还得回来参加另一个演讲活动，周日再去达沃斯。

And then I have to come back for another speaking gig on Wednesday, and then I go to Davos on Sunday.

所以我不

So I don't

想被你采访，也许我得重新考虑一下。

wanna being interviewed by me, so I may have to rethink about that.

那我什么时候接受你的采访？

So when am I being interviewed by you?

嗯。

Yeah.

为了我的CNN节目。

For my CNN thing.

我们要对我们的音响条进行后续报道。

We're doing a follow-up on our sound bar.

我们的音响

Our sound

节目进展得这么差吗？

Is that how poorly the show is going?

我上了两次。

I'm on twice.

进展得很好。

It's going great.

我上了两次。

I'm on twice.

不。

No.

我们只是希望你能谈谈我们想让你讨论的内容——孤独与数字技术，而你在巡回签售书中一直提到的是，你将孤独与每个人的孤立状态联系起来，所以我觉得这很重要。

We just wanted you were we wanted you to talk about we we need someone to talk about loneliness and and digital, and you've been one of the things you've been talking about on your book tour is you're linking it to everybody in isolation, so I think it's important.

我本该在周四晚上上冷熊节目。

Supposed to on cold bear Thursday night.

让我们回到我这里。

Let's get back to me.

让我们回到我这里。

Let's get back to me.

我本该在周四晚上上冷熊节目。

I'm supposed to be on cold bear Thursday night.

我想我会说。

I think I'll talk.

你知道我现在在哪里吗？

You know where I am right now?

你在哪里？

Where are you?

西弗吉尼亚州的摩根敦。

Morgantown, West Virginia.

今天我要去我父亲的墓地拍摄。

I'm going to film at my dad's grave today.

但它们如何与健康联系起来呢？还是只是关于……

But how do they relate that to health, or is it just what it's like to

长寿。

longevity.

我不愿这么说，但我们收集到的反馈之一是……

I hate to say this, but one of the feedback from the stuff we've filled with

缺乏所有情感或人性？

void of all emotion or humanity?

带她去她父亲的墓地。

Take her to her father's grave.

她需要做面部提升。

She needs facelift.

她需要做一次面部提升。

She needs a facelift.

她拒绝做眼部整形。

She refuses to get her eyes done.

带她去她父亲的墓地，用广角镜头，然后拉回焦点。

Take her to her father's grave, and wide angle, focus back.

拉回焦点。

Focus back.

我们有很多话要说。

We have speaking, we have so much to talk about.

你错过了不少。

There's you missed quite

一点。

a bit.

说一句‘天啊’。

Say that Oh my god.

像嗑了曲马多一样疯狂。

Like crazy on your tramadol.

这是我一生中第一次，我害怕看新闻。

First time first time in my life, I was scared to look at the news.

我知道。

I I know.

害怕。

Scared.

我想，你知道，我觉得我还是别看新闻了。

I'm like, you know, I think I'm just gonna ignore the news.

嗯。

Yeah.

但你其实做不到。

Which you can't actually.

冰上白屁股性行为。

White butt sex on off the ice.

好的。

Okay.

我们开始吧。

Let's start that.

司法部刚刚于昨天启动了一项刑事调查，针对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，调查内容涉及美联储总部翻新工程，以及他是否就此事对国会撒谎。

The justice department has opened this just happened yesterday, has opened a criminal investigation into Fed chair, Jerome Powell over the central bank's renovation of its headquarters and whether he lied to congress about it.

该调查包括对鲍威尔公开声明和支出记录的分析。

The inquiry includes analysis of Powell's public statements and spending records.

鲍威尔在美联储周日发布的一段视频中称，这项调查史无前例。

Powell called the investigation unprecedented in a video released by the Fed on Sunday.

让我这么说，他终于说够了，他妈的够了。

Let me say, he's finally said enough is fucking enough.

我们来听一下这段录音。

Let's listen to the clip.

刑事指控的威胁源于美联储根据我们对公众利益的最佳判断来设定利率，而不是迎合总统的偏好。

The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public rather than following the preferences of the president.

这关乎美联储是否能继续基于证据和经济状况设定利率，还是货币政策将被政治压力或恐吓所左右。

This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.

这 guy 是个该死的腐败章鱼。

This guy is a fucking corrupt octopus.

当被问及这项调查时，不是波威尔，而是特朗普。

When asked about the investigation not not Powell, Trump.

特朗普总统表示他对此一无所知。

President Trump said he didn't know anything about it.

他是个骗子。

He's a liar.

波威尔的主席任期将在五月结束，但他的理事任期将持续到2028年1月。

Powell's term as chair ends in May, and his term as governor, though, runs through January 2028.

他到底在搞什么鬼？

What in the world is he doing?

他们确实一直在降息。

They've but they've been lowering interest rates.

我认为他们本打算在下一次会议上保持利率不变。

I I think they were gonna keep them the same for this particular next session.

但这到底是为了什么？

But what in the world?

他会在五月安插自己的人。

He's gonna get his guy in May.

他实际上提到了鲍威尔，但我们先不谈这个了。

What he he actually pointed Powell, but let's move on from that.

你怎么看？

Thoughts?

在鲍威尔主席发布该声明之前，他于八月前辞职的可能性为15%。

Well, before chairman Powell released that statement, there was a 15% likely likelihood that he would resign before August.

到他声明结束时，这一概率已降至5%。

By the end of his statement, it had dropped to 5%.

而正是在这一市场中，Wissomach群体认为，这个人不会有什么前途。

And that is the market where the Wissomach crowd said, this guy's going nowhere.

他非常出色。

He's very good.

他的演讲非常到位。

He nailed his speech.

他完全做到了他该做的事。

He did exactly what he needed to do.

他并没有表现出防御性。

He wasn't defensive.

他只是陈述了显而易见的事实。

He just stated the obvious.

这是在对你的政治对手进行起诉或刑事追责。

This is prosecuting or criminally pursuing your political enemies.

我认为，即使大多数共和党人内心深处也承认这一点。

And I think even most Republicans deep down acknowledge that.

此外，那些本应更注重财政责任的共和党人也认识到，世界上最具活力的经济体以及大多数实现经济增长且未引发恶性通货膨胀的西方经济体，有一个共同点，那就是它们都拥有一个独立的货币机构或美联储，其独立性源于以下原因。

Also, Republicans who are supposed to be the ones that are more fiscally responsible recognize that one of the keys to the most prosperous economies in the world and the majority of Western economies that grow their economies while not risking spiraling inflation have one thing in common, and that is they have an independent equivalent of a monetary association or a federal reserve that is independent because of the following.

总统面临着巨大的施政压力。

Presidents are under huge pressure to perform.

通常，总统任期有限，只能在位一段时间。

And, usually, there's term limits, and they're only there for a limited amount of time.

因此，他们几乎不可能不认为降低利率对自己、对国家、对世界都有好处。

So it would be almost near impossible for them not to believe that it would be good for them, the country, the world to lower interest rates.

因为人们通常没有意识到，降低利率就意味着直接把更多钱放进人们的口袋里。

Because people don't typically realize lowering interest rates is full stop putting more money in people's pockets.

如果你降低利率，你支付的信用卡、房贷、汽车贷款和学生贷款的费用就会减少。

If you lower interest rates, you pay a lower fee on your credit cards, your mortgage, your auto loan, your student loan.

如果你考虑一下房贷利率的话。

If you take mortgage rates or excuse me.

如果你把利率从5%降到2%，每个月就会让消费者、企业以及首席财务官们多出几百到几十万美元的可支配资金。

If you take interest rates from 5% to 2%, you're putting somewhere between a few $100 or a few $100,000 every month in the pocket of consumers, corporations, CFOs.

从短期来看，每个人都很高兴。

Everyone in the short run is happy.

但问题是，你面临的产品太少，而货币过多。

But the problem is you risk having too much money facing few two products.

供应链没有增加，最终会导致通胀螺旋式上升。

The supply chain doesn't increase, and you end up with upward spiraling inflation.

通胀上升的问题在于，如果人们开始恐慌性购买，不再持有货币，而是不断将货币兑换成商品，情况就可能失控，许多革命正是由通胀引发的。

And the thing about inflation going up is that if people get to a point where they start panic buying, and that is they don't hold the currency and they constantly transfer it into goods, it can spin out of control, and a lot of revolutions start because of inflation.

独立美联储的主要职责是说：看。

The primary job of an independent Fed is to say, look.

我们将任命你任职十二年，你的任务不是听从任何人，而是只依据数据，确保整个社会不会因严重的螺旋式通胀而崩溃。

We're gonna appoint you for twelve years, and your job is not to listen to anybody but the data and make sure this entire society doesn't crumble under massive spiraling inflation.

关于鲍威尔主席，有几个数据点。

And just a few data points on chairman Powell.

当他看到通胀飙升至9%时，他史无前例地大幅加息，并已将通胀降至约2.8%。

He had an unprecedented increase in rates when he saw inflation peak at 9%, and he's brought it down to about 2.8%.

他 arguably 将成为对美国经济产生积极影响的最重要人物之一。

He will go down arguably as one of the most seminal figures positively in terms of The US economy.

通货膨胀已大部分朝着目标回落。

The inflation has mostly moved towards its target.

他避免了深度衰退。

He avoided a deep recession.

他完成了像玛丽·露·雷顿一样的精彩落地，稳住了经济。

He pulled off a Mary Lou Retton, like, sticking the economy landing.

是的。

Yeah.

当时有一个

There was a

对略显过度的一点抱怨。

little complaint about a little too much.

记得他们当时在做那部分的时候

Remember that part when they were doing

当他这么做的时候，人人都在抱怨。

Everyone was complaining when he was doing it.

极左派说你在伤害美国人。

The far left is like you're hurting Americans.

极右派则说你在伤害企业。

The far right was you're being you're hurting corporations.

但这是关键所在。

But this is the bottom line.

他成功地大幅抑制了通胀，同时避免了衰退。

He managed to cool inflation massively while avoiding a recession.

他确实做到了。

He did.

人们并不

People don't

我的意思是，在这之前。

I mean, before this.

这叫什么？

What is it called?

他让某件事持续了太久，而且

He kept something going too long and

像量化宽松？

like Easing?

量化宽松？

Quantitative easing?

对。

Yeah.

好吧，珍妮特·耶伦基本上说过，我也提出过这个观点：我们向经济注入了7万亿美元，其中85%并没有被花掉。

Well, Janet Yellen basically said, and I've made this argument, we pumped $7,000,000,000,000 into the economy, and 85% of it wasn't spent.

我们不可能否认自己做得过头了。

It's impossible to argue we didn't overdo it.

她的观点是，做得过头的风险远小于做得不够的风险。

Her viewpoint is the risks of overdoing it are far outweighed by the risks of underdoing it.

如果你看看我们社会中真正的经济困境，就会发现，正是当我们选择紧缩而非放松时，才将大萧条从一次大衰退演变成了大萧条。

If you look at the real economic strife throughout our society, it's when the thing that that took the risk the Great Depression and turned it in from a great recession to a great depression is we decided to tighten rather than loosen.

无论如何，到昨天演讲为止，美联储一直保持着制度上的公信力和独立性。

Anyways, also, he's done including up until the point of the speech yesterday, the Fed has maintained institutional credibility and independence.

关键的洞察是，我认为每个人都意识到，这实际上是在针对政治对手进行追责。

The the piece of insight is I think everyone realizes this is prosecuting or pursuing your political enemies.

詹姆斯。

James.

顺便说一句，这些案件都在瓦解。

Those cases are all falling apart, by the way.

但是

But

你请说。

go ahead.

他们甚至都没能对她提出起诉。

They couldn't even get an indictment against her.

是的。

Yeah.

证据，无论是大陪审团还是提交的证据，他们都表示这根本不值得提出起诉。

The evidence the grand jury or the evidence presented, they said it's not even worthy of an indictment.

我觉得这里有一个有趣的细微差别，一个人们可能不知道的见解如下。

The the piece of nuance that I found interesting here, the the little bit of insight that people may not know is the following.

这并不是为了威吓他辞职。

This isn't about trying to intimidate him into resigning.

这并不是问题所在。

That's not what this is about.

这是为了威吓他辞去董事会成员的职务。

This is about trying to intimidate him into resigning from the board of governors.

嗯。

Mhmm.

因为他在这个董事会、以及每一个董事会中的角色，本质上都是这种动态。

Because his role on this board basically, on every board, this is the dynamic.

一个上市公司董事会通常有12名成员。

There's 12 board members, say, on a board a public company board.

通常少于这个数目，但我们就假设是12人吧。

It's usually less than that, but let's say it's 12.

每个人都发言，每个人都点头，但总有一两个人。

There's everybody speaks, everyone nods, and then there's one or two people.

当他们开口时，所有人都会认真听。

When they speak, everyone fucking listens.

你必须相信，当鲍威尔主席不再担任主席、只是理事时，他发言，大家依然会听。

You gotta believe that when chairman Powell is just is no longer chairman, but the governor, when he speaks, everyone's gonna listen.

他会拥有巨大的影响力。

He's gonna have huge influence.

特朗普希望他离开。

And Trump Trump wants him off.

特朗普想要一个不独立的理事会，让利率大幅下调，给他想要的糖分刺激。

Trump wants someone Trump wants a board of governors that is not independent that will take interest rates way down and give him the sugar high he wants.

如果鲍威尔仍然在董事会，我们将拥有一个更加安全、更加稳健的经济。

And if Powell is still on this board, what we are going to have is a much safer, much more robust economy.

是的。

Yeah.

他不会走的。

He's not going anywhere.

这不对，即使他五月就卸任了。

This isn't well, even he's done in May.

这其实是想把他

This is about trying to get him

救下口袋。

to save pocket.

我说的是，他不会离开董事会。

I'm saying he's not he's not coming off the board.

这就像

There this is like

我也不这么认为。

I don't think so either.

哦，我认为他不会像特朗普那样拍视频。

Oh, I think he's he wouldn't have this is not a man who makes a video, like Trump.

这家伙不容易被吓到。

Dude does not scare easily.

不会。

No.

他并没有一上台就开始为自己被指控的事情辩解。

He didn't he didn't get on there and and start being defensive about the actual thing he's been accused of.

他 basically 说这是胡说八道，任何有点脑子的人都不会信。

He's like you know, he's basically said this is nonsense, and anyone nonsense.

稍微有点脑子的人都不会沾边。

With half a brain isn't even gonna get near this.

就连福克斯新闻，我觉得也不会去追查他们。

Even Fox News, I don't think, is gonna go after them.

他们意识到了，好吧。

They're they realize, okay.

这已经过头了。

This is this is a bridge too far.

整件事太荒谬了。

The whole thing is so cockamamie.

我的意思是，他们现在说的每一句话都是谎言。

I mean, like, well, everything they're saying now is coming out of their mouths is a lie.

所以，真正有趣的是，他发现这段视频引发了大量突如其来的反对，各地都在出现这种现象，你开始看到，甚至共和党人也在反对他，不

So, I mean, what's what's really interesting was this video that he find there's a lot of sudden pushback in lots of different places you're starting to see, including Republicans voting against him, not

尤其是医保补贴。

particularly ACA subsidies.

是的。

Yeah.

我我我得说，这显然是一个信号，你知道，让我感到不可思议的是，他非常活跃，他所做的一切对我来说都像是绝望的最后挣扎，因为他知道这行不通。

I I we I have to say this was this is such a, like, a signal of you know, what's incredible to me is he's very active, and everything he's doing to me is it I think it it's this one reaped of desperation because he can't this is not gonna work.

这反而让鲍威尔更强大了。

And it it makes it makes Powell stronger.

这是我的感觉。

That is my feeling.

这让他即使卸任后，对美联储的影响力也更具公信力。

Like, this gives him much more credibility to influence the Fed even after he's gone.

但你知道，无论他选谁，都比不上杰罗姆·鲍威尔，即使他不再是美联储主席。

But, you know, he's gonna whoever he picks is no match for Jerome Powell, even if he's not the Fed chair.

所以

So

我从未像现在这样确信，鲍威尔主席将来一定会获得总统自由勋章。

I have never been more confident about a future recipient of the presidential medal of freedom than chairman Powell.

没错。

Yep.

没错。

Yep.

100%。

100%.

现在，他几乎就是领导力的代名词。

Right now, he kinda defines leadership.

是的。

Yeah.

也许米什塔会给他

Maybe miss Misjata will give him

他也是对的。

he's right as well.

总之，我们先休息一下，回来后继续讨论明尼阿波利斯ICE枪击事件的持续影响。

Anyway, let's go on a quick break when we come back the ongoing fallout from the ICE shooting in Minneapolis.

本节目由DeleteMe赞助。

Support for this show comes from DeleteMe.

新年可能是绝佳的时机

The New Year can be a perfect time

来整理好你的数字生活，

to get your digital house in order,

而实现这一点的好方法是确保你的数据得到保护。

and a great way to do that is by making sure your data is protected.

DeleteMe 让你能够轻松、快速且安全地移除你在线上的个人信息，尤其是在数据泄露和监控无处不在、人人都可能受害的当下。

DeleteMe makes it easy, quick, and safe to remove your personal data online at a time when surveillance data breaches are common enough to make everyone vulnerable.

DeleteMe 会为你完成所有繁重的工作，从数据经纪商网站上清除你和你家人的个人信息。

DeleteMe does all the hard work of wiping you and your family's personal information from data broker websites.

你只需要注册，提供你想删除的信息，剩下的就交给他们的专家处理。

All you need to do is sign up, share the details you want removed, and their experts take it from there.

这并不是一次性的解决方案。

And it's not a one time fix.

DeleteMe 将全年持续监控并移除你不希望出现在网上的个人信息。

DeleteMe will continually monitor and remove the personal data you don't want online throughout the year.

我使用过 DeleteMe，而且

I've used DeleteMe, and

我真的很喜欢它。

I really like it.

我确实用过。

I did

今年年初我又用了一次，每次看到网上有这么多关于我的信息，我都感到震惊，而我可是个隐私狂人。

it again at the beginning of the year, and I'm always shocked to see how much information is about me out there, and I am a privacy nut.

但这些信息总是存在，很多还是不准确的，而且很多是通过令人不安的方式收集的。

But it's always out there, a lot of it inaccurate, but a lot of it gathered in ways that are troubling.

我经常收到更新通知，我真的觉得他们的仪表板很容易使用，这就是为什么Wirecutter将DeleteMe评为数据删除服务的首选。

I get updates all the time, and I really think their dashboard is easy to use, which is why Wirecutter named DeleteMe, their top pick for data removal services.

你可以通过注册DeleteMe来掌控你的数据，保护你的私人生活不被泄露。

You can take control of your data and keep your private life private by signing up for DeleteMe.

现在我们的听众可以享受特别折扣。

Now at a special discount for our listeners.

访问 deleteme.com/pivot 注册并使用促销代码 pivot，即可享受20%的折扣。

Get 20% off your DeleteMe plan when you go to join deleteme.com/pivot and use the promo code pivot at checkout.

获得20%折扣的唯一方式是访问 join deleteme.com/pivot 并在结账时输入代码 pivot。

The only way to get 20% off is to go to join deleteme.com/pivot and enter code pivot at checkout.

就是访问 join deleteme.com/pivot，输入代码 pivot。

That's join deleteme.com/pivot code pivot.

今天的节目由Upwork赞助。

Support for today's show comes from Upwork.

如果你是小企业主，在你登录前收件箱里的邮件就已经成打地堆积了，也许是时候找人帮忙了。

If you're a small business owner, your inbox is in the double digits before you even logged on, it might be time to bring in some help.

尽管你可能觉得必须如此，但你不必同时担任CEO、CFO和COO。

Even though it may feel like it, you don't have to be the CEO, CFO, and COO.

Upwork表示，有了他们的帮助，你可以开始雇佣顶尖人才，而不再事必躬亲。

Upwork says that with their help, you can start hiring top candidates and stop doing everything yourself.

使用Upwork Business Plus，你无需花数周时间筛选杂乱的简历。

With Upwork Business Plus, you don't need to spend weeks sorting through random resumes.

你可以轻松筛选并审核一份经过精心挑选的、具备技能和可靠性的候选人名单。

You can source and vet a curated shortlist of proven candidates for skills and reliability.

Upwork Business Plus 让您立即获得 Upwork 平台上营销、设计、人工智能等领域顶尖 1% 的人才，他们随时准备助您轻松应对各种挑战。

Upwork Business Plus gives you instant access to the top 1% of Upwork's talent in fields like marketing, design, AI, and more, all ready to jump in and make your life easier.

Upwork Business Plus 消除了招聘的繁琐流程，直接将顶尖人才送到您的收件箱。

Upwork Business Plus gets rid of the hassle of hiring and sends top talent right to your inbox.

这样一来，当您需要专业人才时，再也不用原地打转，您的项目也不会因此停滞。

That way, you're never stuck spinning your wheels when you need a skilled pro, and your projects don't stall.

您现在就可以访问 upwork.com 免费发布职位，连接那些随时准备帮助您业务增长的顶尖人才。

You can visit upwork.com right now to post your job for free and connect with top talent ready to help your business grow.

那就是 upwork.com。

That's upwork.com.

upwork.com。

Upwork.com.

本节目由 BetterHelp 赞助。

Support for the show comes from BetterHelp.

新年不需要全新的你，也许只需要一个负担更轻的你。

The New Year doesn't require a new you, maybe just a less burdened you.

治疗可以帮助你弄清楚什么让你感到压力。

Therapy can help you figure out what's weighing you down.

在专业帮助下，你可以以清晰的眼光看待自己的人际关系、动机和情绪，迎接新的一年。

With professional help, you can head into the New Year with a clear eyed picture of your relationships, motivations, and emotions.

通过BetterHelp，寻找帮助无需变得复杂。

With BetterHelp, finding that help doesn't need to be complicated.

BetterHelp是全球最大的在线治疗平台之一，已为全球超过500万人提供服务。

BetterHelp is one of the world's largest online therapy platforms, having served over 5,000,000 people globally.

他们拥有超过3万名治疗师，因此你能找到合适的匹配对象。

They have over 30,000 therapists, so you can find the right match.

你只需要填写一份简短的问卷，以明确你的需求和偏好。

All you need to do is fill out a short questionnaire to identify your needs and preferences.

凭借超过十二年的经验以及行业领先的匹配成功率，他们通常第一次就能准确匹配。

And with more than twelve years of experience and an industry leading match fulfillment rate, they usually get it right the first time.

但如果你因为任何原因想更换治疗师，随时都可以轻松更换。

But if you realize you wanna switch therapists for any reason, you can do that easily at any time.

不要让去年的包袱拖慢你今年的成长。

Don't let last year's baggage hold you back from this year's growth.

BetterHelp 让你轻松在线匹配到合格的治疗师。

BetterHelp makes it easy to get matched online with a qualified therapist.

立即注册，在 betterhelp.com/pivot 享受 10% 折扣。

Sign up and get 10% off at betterhelp.com/pivot.

那就是 better,help,.com/pivot。

That's better,help,.com/pivot.

斯科特，我们回来带来更多信息。

Scott, we're back with more news.

这个周末，全国各地成千上万的人走上街头，抗议 ICE 特工在明尼阿波利斯杀害了 37 岁的雷妮·古德。

Thousands of people across the country took to the streets this weekend to protest the killing of 37 year old Renee Goode by an ICE agent in Minneapolis.

与此同时，国土安全部部长克里斯蒂·诺姆表示，她本周将向明尼阿波利斯派遣数百名联邦特工。

This, as Homeland Security secretary Kristi Noem, says she's sending hundreds more federal agents to Minneapolis this week.

特朗普政府还排除了州和地方官员参与对古德之死的调查，将全部责任交给了联邦调查局，这削弱了调查的公信力。

The Trump administration also cut state and local officials out of the investigation into good's death, leaving it all to the FBI, which minimizes credibility.

一段新的手机视频在社交媒体上广泛传播，展示了移民与海关执法局官员视角下的枪击时刻，这对该官员极为不利。

A new cell phone video has spread across social media showing the moments for the shooting from ICE officers' perspective, which is quite damning to the ICE officer.

副总统J.D.万斯等人辩称，这段录像支持了自卫的说法。

Vice president JD Vance and others are arguing that the footage supports a claim of self defense.

大多数人并不……大多数人没有撒谎。

Most people don't well, most people aren't lying.

我不认同这一点。

Don't agree with that.

与此同时，古德的妻子于1月7日星期三发声表示：‘我们停下来是为了支持我们的邻居。’

Meanwhile, Goode's wife spoke out saying on Wednesday, January 7, we stopped to support our neighbors.

我们拿着哨子。

We had whistles.

他们却带着枪。

They had guns.

你和我分享了你的想法，你知道，这是一件可怕的事情。

You you shared your thoughts with me, and, you know, this is this is a terrible thing.

而且，当然，我认为人们正确地指出，这件事引起了极大的关注。

And and and, of course, you know, I think people rightly point out that that it's it gets an enormous amount of attention.

这是一位从学校回来的白人女性。

This is a a white woman coming back from school.

我的意思是，这个叙事确实非常特别，但它仍然在各地引发了抗议。

The the I mean, the narrative is really quite something, but it still has sparked protests everywhere.

因为，尤其是当它与这些蒙面暴徒的视频结合在一起时，你就能看到 sheriff 和地方警察的反应，他们对此并不认同。

Because and it's when it's especially when it's combined with all these videos of these thugs going around with masks on, you see reaction from sheriffs and local police who don't like it.

他们不戴面具。

They don't wear masks.

谈谈你认为现在正在发生什么。

Talk a little bit about what you you think is happening here right now.

好吧，我只是想承认你提到的这一点，黑人群体是这么想的，没错。

Well, I just wanna acknowledge the point you referenced that the black community is like, yeah.

欢迎来到我们的世界。

Welcome to our world.

嗯。

Mhmm.

那个眼神。

The look.

美国的立国之本，那些原则，以及人们为何甘愿冒如此大风险、聚集如此有远见的人们来开启这个名为美国的新实验，其核心正是为了避免这种狗屁事。

The very founding of America, the very principles and the reason why people took so many risks and brought together such thoughtful people to start this new experiment called America, the very cornerstone of why America was found founded was to avoid this shit.

他们不想要一个拥有无限制权力的独裁者。

Was they didn't want an autocrat with unchecked power.

那样会伤害他们。

They could harm them.

因此，从很多方面来看，这完全违背了我们所应坚持的一切。

And so this, in so many ways, is just a violation of everything we're supposed to stand for.

你对古德小姐最糟糕的指责，也不过是说她——我甚至都不愿说她‘逃离现场’，而只是未经许可离开了一个受控环境。

And the worst thing you could say about miss Good is that she was I don't even say fleeing the scene, but leaving a controlled environment without permission.

这确实是关于她最糟糕的指控，但司法部的政策明确指出：当有人正在逃离现场时，不得开枪或使用致命武力。

That is absolutely the worst thing you could say about her, but Department of Justice policy clearly states, you cannot discharge a weapon or use lethal force when someone is fleeing the scene.

我甚至不确定这算不算逃离现场，但就算以最糟糕的角度来解读她的行为。

And I'm not even sure it qualifies as fleeing the scene, but take the worst interpretation of what she was doing.

你仍然无法为这名特工的行为辩解。

You still cannot justify what this agent did.

而且，如果你在陪审团面前讨论这种情况，要知道联邦特工和警察经常面对极其紧张复杂的瞬间，其中很多都涉及法庭上所说的‘心理状态’。

And, also, if you're in front of a jury talking about situations like this and, look, federal agents and police deal with very hot in the moment complicated situations, and a lot of it goes to what they refer to in court as state of mind.

让我告诉你这个人的心理状态。

Let me give you this guy's state of mind.

该死的婊子。

Fucking bitch.

嗯。

Mhmm.

谢谢。

Thank you.

朝一名并未对他进行身体威胁的女性胸部和面部连开三枪，然后在她明显已死亡并冲出道路后，还说‘该死的婊子’。

Put three bullets in the torso and face of a woman who has not physically threatened him and then decided after she had clearly been killed and ran off the road to say, fucking bitch.

那就是他的心态。

That was his state of mind.

这在宏观层面上是对美国原则的悲剧。

This is a tragedy on a meta level for American principles.

对她和她的家人来说，这显然是巨大的悲剧。

It's obviously a huge tragedy for her and her family.

更令人失望、进一步刺痛美国现状的是，保守派媒体，包括福克斯，描述古德女士时使用了大量隐晦措辞，我相信你注意到了。

What was even more disappointing and salt on the wounds of the current state of America is conservative media, including Fox, used a lot of code words when describing miss Good, and I'm sure you saw this.

首先，一个自称的诗人。

First off, a self proclaimed poet.

胡说八道。

Bullshit.

她是一位获奖诗人。

She was an award winning poet.

离过婚的？哦，离过婚的人就没那么值得同情了。

A divorced per oh, divorced people aren't as worthy.

然后，我确定你也注意到了，他们一直称她为女同性恋。

And then the one I'm sure you noticed, they kept referring to her as a lesbian.

没错。

Yep.

好吧。

Okay.

那个朝她脸上开了三枪的男人，我敢打赌有95%的概率，他和女人睡觉。

The guy who shot her three times in the face, I would bet 95% probability, he sleeps with women.

这并不会让他罪责更重或更轻。

That makes him no more or no less guilty.

而她与女性交往这一事实，并不会使她更罪有应得，也不会让她成为悲剧或受害者的程度减轻。

And the fact that she sleeps with women makes her no less or more guilty of of anything or no less a tragedy or a victim.

当福克斯媒体一贯将她描述为‘女同性恋活动家’时，他们实际上是在对观众说：亲爱的观众们，我们认为你们是如此极端的恐同者，以至于只要我们强调这位女性与女性交往，你们就会更容易为谋杀她找到借口，因为同性恋是件坏事。

And when Fox consistently describes her as a lesbian activist, what they're saying is, dear viewers, we think you are such raging fucking homophobes that if we highlight that this woman sleeps with other women, you will have an easier time justifying the murder of this woman because being gay is a bad thing.

换句话说，亲爱的观众们，我们认为你们自己也是恐同的。

In other words, dear viewers, we think you too are homophobic.

我们只是得到一个爱多嘴的女同性恋。

And we just get a mouthy lesbian.

这正是他们在做的。

That's exactly what they're doing.

所有这些隐晦的语言，嗯。

All of this coded language Mhmm.

试图这样做，本质上是承认保守媒体的观众会开始使用这些词语。

To try is basically an acknowledgment that the viewers of of whatever conservative media starts using those words.

无论美国何时达到某种状态，在任何审判或陪审团中谈论某人的性取向都没有意义。

It makes no it makes no if we ever get to a point of America, it makes no sense in any trial or jury to talk about someone's sexual orientation.

我长期以来一直说，而且我认为左翼有时在面对某些特定利益群体的人时，会过度美化他们。

I have long said and and, also, I think the left sometimes has a problem with wrapping virtue around people if they're of a certain special interest group.

不。

No.

他们既不更好，也不更差。

They're no better, and they're no worse.

这和那完全没关系。

This this had nothing to do with that.

这太可怕了，你知道吗，因为我觉得他本人和女同性恋者之间有些个人恩怨。

It was terrifying as a, you know, because I think it was someone who has there's some personal thing happening here with him and gay women.

据说，他之前还和一辆车发生过冲突。

Well, supposedly, he'd had another altercation with a car.

是的。

Yep.

我不知道。

I don't know.

别的事情。

Something else

她的错误会很严重。

is Her errors are gonna be rich.

那个该死的婊子对我来说意味很多。

Fucking bitch says a lot to me.

还有别的事情

Something else was

正在发生。

going on.

百分之百。

100%.

所以，你知道，真正看起来的是什么。

And so, you know, the the what really look.

这个家伙明显是个流氓。

This guy is clearly a thug.

对吧？

Right?

他们就是想聘用这样的人。

Just wanted and this is what they hired.

那些在德国杀害了那么多人的人，就是这些流氓。

This is the the people that killed all those people in Germany were thugs.

希特勒并没有杀死所有人。

Hitler did not kill everybody.

他雇了人去做这些事。

He hired people who did so.

从这一点可以看出，那些明事理的人——比如JD·万斯、克里斯蒂·诺姆等人，还有特朗普本人——立刻认定她有罪，不管怎样都坚持推动这件事，甚至在任何调查之前就下定论。

And one of the things, that you you notice from this is the reaction from people who know better, the JD Vances, the Kristi Noems, etcetera, and Trump himself who immediately, you know, decided she was guilty no matter what and kept pushing this thing before any investigation.

唯一一个试图说‘我们等等看’的人，出人意料的是汤姆·霍曼，结果他立刻被打压了。

The only person who tried to say, well, let's just wait and see was, of all people, Tom Homan, And then he was slapped back.

这简直令人难以置信。

Like, it it was incredible.

他给出了正确的反应，那就是等等看。

He had the correct response, which is let's wait and see.

没错。

Like That's right.

是的。

Yeah.

但你知道，现在我们生活在一个视频的时代。

But, you know and then, of course, now we're we're living in an era of video.

当他们放出那个视频，放那个该死的婊子出来时，以为这能帮他们洗清嫌疑，听起来这人显然是被激怒了。

And when they release that thing and let fucking bitch out, like, think that helps their case, it sounds like this guy was in a rage from someone.

她生命最后的话是：‘哥们儿，我不生你的气。’

And she her last words of her of her life were, I'm not mad at you, dude.

老实说，这种对比和她的名字，太明显了，视频里发生的事一清二楚。

Like, honestly, the juxtaposition and her name good, it was and it's so clear what's happening in that video.

我觉得真正令人作呕的是，我得给杰克·塔珀点赞，他写信质问克里斯蒂·诺埃姆：你怎么能这样？她明显展示了1月6日的图片，当时那些人正在挤压警察、用管子殴打他们、挥舞旗帜，还把一名警员卡在门里。

I think what's really gonna what's grotesque is and I have to give credit to Jake Tapper for writing Christy Noem about this, which was how can you she showed pictures obviously of January 6 where they were squeezing a police officer, hitting them with with with pipes and and and flags and and squeezing one officer in a door.

而这些人却得到了赦免。

And he they got pardoned.

你知道吗？

You know?

她却说：‘每个人都该受到同样的法律对待。’

And she was like, everyone gets the same law.

他说，但他们并没有。

And he's like, but they don't.

她回应说，每个人都受到同样的法律对待。

And she goes, everyone gets the same law.

然后他再次展示照片，说：她一边说着‘我不生你的气，伙计’，一边开车离开。

Then he shows the pictures again and says, she's saying I'm not mad at you, dude, and driving away.

他们正在攻击警察。

They are attacking police officers.

你不能这么说。

You cannot say this.

就我而言，克里斯蒂·诺姆应该被弹劾，并且最好进监狱。

I mean, as far as I'm concerned, Kristi Noem needs to be impeached and hopefully go to jail.

但那个J。

But the the J.

D。

D.

万斯在这事上特别令人厌恶。

Vance is particularly loathsome in this thing.

这让我感到震惊，竟然在调查尚未开始之前就试图污名化受害者，还不让国家层面参与进来。

And that's to me was sort of a shock, this idea of, like, trying to impugn this victim long before there's an investigation, and then not letting the state also be participatory.

这些人迟早不会有好下场。

This is not gonna end well for any of these people at some point.

嗯，政府一直保持一致。

Well, the it's the administration has been consistent.

这是罗伊·科恩的沟通策略。

It's the Roy Cohn communication strategy.

加倍否认，攻击，攻击，攻击，绝不承认任何过错。

Double down, deny, attack, attack, attack, never admit any guilt.

如果总统身边有个真正有才华的沟通专家，真正能帮助政府的是总统采取以下做法。

If they'd had a really talented communications person with the presidency or what would have actually helped the administration is if the president had done the following.

我看了那个视频。

I saw the video.

坦率地说，我觉得这非常令人不安。

Quite frankly, I found it very upsetting.

美国人知道，移民与海关执法局的存在是有原因的。

Americans you know, ICE is there for a reason.

我需要仔细审查一下这件事。

I need to review this.

我需要看看完整调查报告的内容，但我发现我所看到的令人不安，然后就不再多说。

I need to see what the full investigation says, but I found what I saw disturbing, and then say nothing else.

我认为，事实上，如果他只是说，‘我不知道’，这反而会为移民与海关执法局提供更多的掩护和正当性；如果你还记得，当年乔治·布什时期，他们曾播放过萨达姆·侯赛因被绞死的视频。

I think that actually would, quite frankly, have given ICE more cloud cover and license If he had just said that I don't know if you remember when George Bush, they had video of when Saddam Hussein was hanged.

我记得他说：‘是的。’

And I remember him saying, yeah.

我看了那段视频，坦率地说，我觉得非常令人不安。

I watched the video, and I quite frankly, found it very disturbing.

那真是一个让你忍不住说‘好吧’的时刻。

And I it was a real moment where you said, okay.

我觉得这个家伙当总统，我感觉好一些了。

I feel better about this guy being president.

你知道吗？

You know?

尽管他很愤怒，尽管他投入了大量军事装备，但他知道自己被派去执行死刑，但他只是说，我觉得整件事令人不安。

As angry as he was, as much military hardware as he'd committed, he knew he had been had been sent to death, but he just said, I I found the whole thing disturbing.

如果他们只是说我们需要进行全面调查，他们本可以帮到自己。

They they would've helped themselves if they had just said, we need to have a full investigation.

任何看过这段视频的人，包括我们，都觉得这令人不安。

Anyone who saw the video, including us, found this disturbing.

我们需要对此展开调查。

And we need to investigate it.

我们需要

We need to

调查一下，看看全面调查最终会得出什么结果。

investigate We'll see what what the full investigation turns out.

这些人已经失控了。

These people are out of control.

我的意思是，我跟很多人聊过，他完全疯了，那些人简直就是他的廉价版党卫军。

I mean, I've talked to a lot of this is him unhinged with people, you know, essentially, his his low rent versions of the SS with them.

感觉就是这样。

That's what it feels like.

我的心思牵挂着这位女士的孩子们，她刚送孩子上学，然后……

And my art goes out to these to the children of this woman, which is she dropped a kid off at school and then

她的手套箱里塞满了毛绒玩具。

She had stuffed animals in her glove box.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，里面还有一只狗。

I mean, there was a dog.

这显然不是什么危险情况，是的。

This is not a dangerous Yeah.