雪佛龙、委内瑞拉与资源富饶的悖论

这是来自NPR的Planet Money。

This is Planet Money from NPR.

在美国宣布逮捕委内瑞拉领导人并计划暂时接管该国的消息传出后，一家美国公司突然成为焦点。

In the wake of news that The United States had captured and arrested the leader of Venezuela and would run the country for some amount of time, one specific American company found itself suddenly in a very strange spotlight.

举个例子，上周在白宫举行了一次大型会议。

A case in point, a huge meeting last week at the White House.

但今天，我很高兴欢迎来自世界各地的近两 dozen 最大、最受尊敬的石油和天然气企业高管来到白宫。

But today, I'm delighted to welcome almost two dozen of the biggest and most respected oil and gas executives in the world to the White House.

这是一份荣誉。

It's an honor

特朗普召集了整个美国石油行业，讨论他将委内瑞拉重新变为繁荣石油出口国的目标。

to Trump assembled basically the entire American oil industry to discuss his goal of turning Venezuela back into a booming petroleum exporter.

但特朗普似乎在人群中特别寻找一家公司。

But Trump appeared to be looking out into the crowd for one company in particular.

雪佛龙在哪里？

Where's Chevron?

雪佛龙在哪里？

Where's Chevron?

他问道。

He asks.

你在哪里？

Where are you?

在右边。

In far right.

不是。

No.

我以为你会有更好的位置。

I thought you'd have a better location.

你是唯一一个全程都在那儿的人。

You were the only one that was there for for all that.

是的。

Yes.

雪佛龙从石油 literally 如雨般倾泻在委内瑞拉、带来繁荣并使其成为全球最大石油出口国的时代起，就一直在那里。

Chevron was there in Venezuela from the time that oil literally rained down on the country, caused a boom, and turned Venezuela into the biggest oil exporter in the world.

当石油财富将委内瑞拉转变为第一个石油国家，并将加拉加斯变成一座镀金的全球首都时，雪佛龙也在那里。

Chevron was there when that oil money transformed Venezuela into the first petro state and transformed Caracas into a gilded global capital.

但最引人注目的是，当局势恶化、委内瑞拉逐步将石油产业从外国公司手中收回时，雪佛龙依然留在那里。

But most notably, Chevron kept being there when things went bad and when Venezuela took more and more of the oil industry away from foreign companies.

因此，在那个满是全球最强大石油高管的白宫房间里，特朗普特别点名了雪佛龙的高管。

And so in that White House room full of the most powerful oil executives on the planet, Trump singled out Chevron's executive.

我过去常给你打电话，问：委内瑞拉到底发生什么事了？

I used to call you and say, what the hell is going on with Venezuela?

你坚持了下来。

He stuck it out.

我不知道你有没有赚钱，但你确实坚持了下来。

I don't know if you made money or not, but you stuck it out.

我必须为你这一点给予极大的认可。

I gotta give you a lot of credit for that.

我敢肯定雪佛龙确实赚了钱，并且现在仍然处于有利地位，能继续赚钱。

Pretty sure Chevron did make money and are pretty well positioned to keep making it.

你好，欢迎收听《星球金钱》。

Hello, and welcome to Planet Money.

我是肯尼·马隆。

I'm Kenny Malone.

我是艾丽卡·巴里斯。

And I'm Erica Barris.

委内瑞拉和雪佛龙或许是历史上最奇怪的公私合作案例之一？

Venezuela and Chevron are perhaps one of the strangest public private partnerships ever?

世界上最有名、最赚钱的公司之一，几十年来一直在世界上最著名也最臭名昭著的社会主义国家里坚持运营。

One of the world's most famous and profitable corporations has, for decades, been plugging away in one of the world's most famous and infamous socialist countries.

今天在节目中，我们要讲的是，在沙特阿拉伯和伊朗之前，曾有委内瑞拉——第一个石油国家，第一个经济完全依赖石油的国家。

Today on the show, before Saudi Arabia, before Iran, there was Venezuela, the first petro state, the first country whose entire economy became dependent on oil.

伴随着这份‘恩赐’，一系列经济教科书中的难题也随之而来：荷兰病、资源诅咒、单一经济脆弱性等等。

And with that blessing, an entire economic textbook of complications opened up from the Dutch disease to the resource curse to monoeconomic vulnerability.

而奇怪的是，小小的雪佛龙也一路同行。

And oddly, along for that ride, little old Chevron.

或者至少最初它很小，但多亏了委内瑞拉，雪佛龙如今已成为美国第二大石油公司。

Or at least it was little at first because thanks in part to Venezuela, Chevron is now the second largest oil company in The US.

是的。

Yeah.

即使他们在白宫的座位离总统相当远。

Even if if they got seated pretty far from the president at the White House.

马可刚给我递了个纸条。

Marco just gave me a note.

回到雪佛龙的话题。

Go back to Chevron.

他们想讨论点事情。

They wanna discuss something.

请说。

Go ahead.

我要回 Chevron 了，马克。

I'm going back to Chevron, Mark.

谢谢你，马可。

Thank you, Marco.

雪佛龙在委内瑞拉的经济历史，那场剧变之后的石油元老国。

The economic history of Chevron in Venezuela, the OG petro state after the break.

所以当时所有石油高管都在白宫谈论委内瑞拉石油，但除了雪佛龙之外，其他人并不太热衷。

So you had all those oil executives at the White House talking about Venezuelan oil and not all that excited except for Chevron.

作为一家自豪的美国公司，我们非常期待帮助委内瑞拉建设更美好的未来。

We very much look forward as a proud American company to help it build a better future.

因此，总统先生，感谢您的领导。

And so, mister president, thank you for your leadership.

你在那儿真的吃了不少苦。

And you really suffered there.

你坚持了下来。

You you stuck it out.

为了理解为什么所有这些公司都离开了，而雪佛龙却留了下来，我们联系了斯坦福大学的政治经济学家特里·卡尔，她告诉我们，自从上世纪七十年代开始关注委内瑞拉石油的故事以来，她已经采访过每一位委内瑞拉总统，除了尼古拉斯·马杜罗。

To understand what happened to make all those companies leave while Chevron stayed, we called up Stanford political economist, Teri Carl, who told us she's interviewed every Venezuelan president except Nicolas Maduro since she started following the story of oil in Venezuela back in the nineteen seventies.

委内瑞拉的石油早在一百多年前就在马拉开波湖被发现，而这个湖恰好也是意大利探险家亚美利哥·韦斯普奇获得灵感、为委内瑞拉命名的地方。

Venezuelan oil was discovered more than a hundred years ago at Lake Maracaibo, which actually happens to be the same lake that inspired Italian explorer, Amerco Vespucci, to give Venezuela its name.

他看到这些原住民住在高脚屋中，便说：天哪。

He sees these indigenous people living in houses on stilts, and he says, my goodness.

这看起来像威尼斯。

It looks like Venice.

于是他称之为‘小威尼斯’，这正是‘委内瑞拉’这个名字的由来。

And he calls it Little Venice, which is what Venezuela means.

在接下来的几个世纪里，委内瑞拉成为西班牙殖民地，后来又并入哥伦比亚。

Over the next couple centuries, Venezuela became a Spanish colony, then it was part of Colombia.

到了二十世纪初，它获得了独立，由一系列独裁者统治，并建立了自己的出口经济。

And by the early twentieth century, it had gained independence, was run by a series of dictators, and had its own export economy.

委内瑞拉是一个农业国家。

Venezuela is an agrarian country.

它只出口一样东西。

It exports one thing.

我正想问我们应该猜什么？

I was gonna ask what should we guess?

艾丽卡，你想猜猜吗？

Erica, you wanna guess?

我觉得是咖啡。

I think Guess.

我猜是咖啡。

Gonna guess coffee.

肯定是咖啡。

It has to be coffee.

说得好。

Atta girl.

这个国家最大的出口产品是我最爱的豆子。

The country's number one export was my favorite bean.

但不会太久。

But not for long.

这是一个时代，欧洲和美国的探险家、植物学家和地质学家遍布美洲各地，寻找可能让他们致富的陆地或地下资源。

This is a time in the world where there are European and American explorers and botanists and geologists all over The Americas looking for something on land or in the ground that might make them rich.

在委内瑞拉，一些人就在那个赋予委内瑞拉名字的地方挖掘石油。

And in Venezuela, some of them were digging up oil in that same place that gave Venezuela its name.

是的。

Yeah.

1922年，他们在马拉开波湖发现了巨大的油田，即马拉开波湖大喷发。

In 1922, they made a huge oil discovery at Lake Maracaibo, the Lake Maracaibo gusher.

一些勘探人员多年来一直在那片湖泊周围寻找石油，直到某天早晨，大地开始震动。

Some surveyors had been digging for oil for years around that lake, and then one morning, the earth started to rumble.

接着传来一声巨响，一口小油井以前所未有的方式活了过来。

And there was a loud roar, and this small well came alive in a way that no one had ever seen before.

它开始喷涌出石油。

It started spouting up oil.

你想加音效吗？

You want sound effects?

是的。

Yep.

请吧。

Please do.

在钻塔上方200英尺处。

200 feet above the derrick.

那就是我们所说的油井塔架。

That is that's what we call the oil well tower thing.

它喷出了石油。

It's spewed oil.

这种黑色粘稠的石油喷洒到了镇上所有人和所有东西上。

This black tarry oil that sprayed everyone and everything in the town.

那口油井连续喷涌了九天，像下雨一样把石油洒在人们、树木和房屋上。

And that oil, it blew for nine straight days, raining oil on people and trees and houses.

这上了头条。

It made headlines.

石油在人们的头上留下了油痕。

It made lines of oil on people's heads.

这也让镇上的人们合理地感到恐慌。

Also, kind of freaked out the townspeople reasonably.

它制造了巨大的混乱，随后引发了对委内瑞拉的石油热潮。

It made a huge mess, and then it caused a proper oil rush to Venezuela.

马克·海博拥有石油的消息逐渐传出，大量主要是美国公司蜂拥而至。

The news that Mark Hybeau has oil trickles out, and there's a huge rush of primarily US companies.

因为，当然，地下的石油本身并不构成石油产业。

Because, of course, oil in the ground is not an oil industry.

将它转化为实际产品需要机械、地质学家、炼油厂和公司。

Turning that into something requires machinery and geologists and refineries and companies.

因此，委内瑞拉的独裁强人允许一百多家外国公司进驻并开始钻探，寻找更多的喷涌油井。

And so Venezuela's strongman dictator allowed more than a 100 foreign companies to just set up shop and drill away in search of more gushers.

委内瑞拉从这笔交易中赚了一些钱，但那些公司赚得更多。

Venezuela makes some money from this, but those companies make so much more.

这是一场繁荣，也是一场大骗局。

It was a a boom, a boondoggle.

在整个二十年代，委内瑞拉迅速成为世界上最大的石油出口国。

Through the nineteen twenties, Venezuela very quickly became the biggest oil exporter in the world.

一小群石油公司逐渐崛起，成为最积极、最突出、最具生产力的企业。

And a small group of oil companies emerged as the most aggressive, the most prominent, and the most productive.

像BP和壳牌这样的你所熟知的公司。

Companies you know, like BP and Shell.

最终，它们被称为‘七姐妹’，其中一家来自加利福尼亚的小型石油公司，就是我们现在所知的雪佛龙。

Eventually, they'd be called the Seven Sisters, and among them was a small oil company from California, the company we now know as Chevron.

因此，这个世界首个以石油为基础的经济体系，就是这样以一种混乱而狂热的方式突然诞生的。

And so this was the very messy gold rushy way that the world's first oil based economy sort of snapped into existence overnight.

对于像这样的国家，有一个词，特里·卡尔在她关于委内瑞拉的著作中半确定是她创造的——石油国家。

There is a word for a country like that, a word that Terry Carl is semi certain she coined in her writing about Venezuela, petrostate.

在你之前没人说过‘石油国家’这个词吗？

No one said petrostate before you?

你确定吗？

Are you sure?

对我来说。

For me.

我相当确定。

I'm pretty sure.

你怎么知道的？

How do you know that?

反正是他们这么告诉我的。

That's what they tell me anyway.

他们就是这么告诉我的。

That's what they tell me.

而我提出的观点是，石油国家与其他所有国家都不同，就是这样。

And the argument the argument I made is that oil states are different from all other states, period.

石油国家 simply 是那些经济以石油为核心的国家，而委内瑞拉一夜之间成为了第一个这样的国家。

Petrostates are simply countries with an economy built around having oil, and overnight, Venezuela had become the first.

发现大量石油就像打开一个装着潘多拉魔盒和经济学教科书的宝箱。

Discovering massive amounts of oil is a treasure chest holding a Pandora's box, holding an economics textbook.

因为伴随着全球财富的可能性，也带来了一系列潜在问题。

Because along with the possibility of global riches comes a host of potential issues.

委内瑞拉在二十世纪二十年代并不会了解这些问题，但今天，这些问题都有了广为人知的名称，比如荷兰病、资源诅咒、对外部冲击的单一经济依赖，好吧。

Venezuela would not have known about these issues in the nineteen twenties, but today, these things have memorable names like the Dutch disease, the resource curse, monoeconomic exposure to exogenous shock, which okay.

说得通。

Fair enough.

但这个没有一个广为人知的名称。

That doesn't have a memorable name.

但嗯。

But Mhmm.

所有这些因素都可能在未来一个世纪里塑造委内瑞拉。

All of these things would debatably shape Venezuela over the next century.

所有这些石油带来的第一个也是最直接的影响就是荷兰病。

The first and most immediate effect of all this oil was the Dutch disease.

当一个国家发现了极其宝贵的东西时，往往会颠覆其整个经济。

When something obscenely valuable is discovered in a country, it tends to upend the rest of the economy.

就像在荷兰，当发现天然气时，国际资金涌入这个新行业，导致荷兰货币在全球市场上的价值上升，这听起来不错，我想。

Like in The Netherlands, when natural gas was discovered, international money poured into this new sector, and that raised the value of Dutch currency in the global market, which, great, I guess.

但其实不然。

Except no.

因为这意味着购买荷兰的产品会变得更贵。

Because that means buying things from The Netherlands becomes more expensive.

因此，现有的产业，通常是农业和制造业，很难与其他国家竞争。

And so suddenly, the existing industries, often agriculture and manufacturing, they have a hard time competing with other countries.

而在二十世纪二十年代的委内瑞拉，这种荷兰病简直被放大了数倍。

Now in Venezuela, in the nineteen twenties, it was like Dutch disease on steroids.

别忘了，他们当时还有一个咖啡产业。

Remember, they had a coffee industry.

特里·卡尔向我们解释说，石油繁荣导致玻利瓦尔——委内瑞拉货币——急剧升值，这意味着委内瑞拉的咖啡突然变得比其他国家的咖啡贵得多。

Terry Carl explained to us that the oil boom caused the Bolivar, the the Venezuelan currency, to skyrocket, which meant Venezuelan coffee was, like, suddenly way too expensive compared to coffee sold by other countries.

因此，委内瑞拉失去了整个咖啡市场。

So Venezuela loses its entire coffee market.

也就是说，到那时为止，他们失去了整个经济？

So which is to say they lose their entire economy up to that point?

他们完全失去了。

They lose it entirely.

消失了。

Gone.

天哪。

Wow.

消失了。

Gone.

那取而代之的是什么？

And what replaces it?

石油出口。

The export of oil.

1928年。

1928.

哇哦。

Woah.

所以，如果你刚才听到一声巨响，那是特里在演示商品之间的切换动作。

So so in case you just heard a loud thump, that was Terry doing the the motion of a switch a switcheroo of commodities.

是的。

Yes.

从咖啡转向石油，然后啪的一声打在话筒上。

Coffee to oil and, whack on the old mic.

这令人震惊。

And it's astonishing.

荷兰病是备受争议的‘资源诅咒’理论中一个较少被讨论的方面。

The Dutch disease is a less debated prong of a very debated idea called the resource curse.

这种观点认为，发现像石油这样的资源长期来看可能是一种诅咒。

The idea that maybe discovering something like oil is a curse in the long run.

因为当一种资源成为国家唯一的财富来源时，往往会带来经济不稳定、专制和腐败等问题。

Because when one resource becomes a country's solo source of riches, it tends towards things like economic instability, authoritarianism, corruption.

你也会听到这被称为‘丰富的悖论’，但总体而言，支持这一观点的证据并不一致。

You'll also hear this called the paradox of plenty, and the evidence for this is spotty as a general rule.

但委内瑞拉已成为人们常引用的案例之一。

But Venezuela has become one of the cases that people point to.

是的。

Yeah.

一旦石油主导了委内瑞拉经济，就出现了大量的财富。

Once oil took over the Venezuelan economy, there was all this wealth.

而像这样的石油国家面临的一个重大挑战是，所有权力和财富都集中在少数人手中——在这种情况下，是七个人，即‘七姐妹’。

And one of the big challenges that arises with a petrostate like this one is you end up with all the power and wealth concentrated in one set of hands, or in this case, seven sets of hands, the seven sisters.

而权力集中往往会导致权力的急剧扩张。

And concentrated power tends to lead to big power grabs.

二战期间，美国需要大量来自委内瑞拉的石油，委内瑞拉政府这才意识到有那么多钱正以桶为单位流出国境。

And that happened during World War two when The US needed massive amounts of oil from Venezuela, and Venezuela's government realized how much money was leaving its country in barrels.

如今委内瑞拉的统治者对石油美元的作用要清醒得多。

Venezuela rulers now are much more savvy about what petrodollars do.

他们意识到，美国正在参战，非常需要我们的石油。

And they go, you know, The United States is entering the war, and they really need our oil.

当时，委内瑞拉的发展部长曾问：为什么这七姐妹能从我们的石油中赚取这么多钱？

At the time, Venezuela's minister of development was like, why are these seven sisters making so much money off of our oil?

他们需要我们，就像我们需要他们一样。

They need us just as much as we need them.

这位部长名叫胡安·巴勃罗·佩雷斯·阿方索，他最终改变了全世界对石油的认知和讨论方式。

This minister, his name was Juan Pablo Perez Alfonso, would eventually change the way the whole world thinks and talks about oil.

他是委内瑞拉漫长地争取掌控本国石油资源之路上迈出第一步的人。

He was the one who took the first step in Venezuela's long march towards taking control over the country's oil.

这标志着委内瑞拉石油民族主义的真正开端。

This is the beginning of really strong oil nationalism in Venezuela.

这是我们的石油。

This is our oil.

明白吗？

Okay?

他们把石油挖走，用在战争上，用在正在发展的美国等等，但这是我们的石油。

They're taking it out and using it for war for the developing United States, etcetera, but this is our oil.

于是他们达成了所谓的五五分成协议。

So they negotiate what is called the fifty fifty agreement.

五五分成协议意味着，我们不再跟你们签那些小合同，给你们一些权利，然后让你们把全部利润拿走。

The fifty fifty agreement means we're no longer gonna do these little contracts with you and give you some rights and have you take it all.

我们想要你们所取得利润的50%。

We want 50% of everything you take.

你们所取得利润的50%。

And 50% of everything you take.

这是一项

That's a

很多。

lot.

那是一大笔钱。

That's a lot.

雪佛龙和其他六家大公司并不喜欢这个安排，但他们其实别无选择。

Chevron and the other seven sisters did not like it, but they didn't really have a choice.

委内瑞拉是美国最大且最近的外国石油来源。

Venezuela had the biggest and closest foreign source of oil for The US.

他们占据优势，因此这几家大公司同意了。

They had the upper hand, so the sisters agreed.

而在该协议的细微条款中，还隐藏着一项长期计划：委内瑞拉最终将完全掌控本国的石油资源。

And in the not so small print of that agreement was a longer term plan that Venezuela would in fact take over the country's oil completely.

四十年后，他们将拥有全部资产。

It would own everything in forty years.

到那时，如果他们愿意，七家大公司就必须重新谈判合同。

At that time, if they wanted, the Seven Sisters would have to negotiate new contracts.

因此，战后这些年，石油持续大量流出，资金也是如此，大量流入外国手中，但更多资金前所未有地流入了委内瑞拉政府手中。

So in the years after the war, oil continued to flow generously and so did money, a lot into foreign hands, but more than ever into the hands of the Venezuelan government.

所有这些资金开始源源不断地涌入该国。

And all that money started streaming into the country.

新的基础设施、新的工作岗位、不断壮大的中产阶级，这一切都得益于石油。

There was new infrastructure, new jobs, a growing middle class, all thanks to oil.

这正是石油国家中那些看似美好的时刻，让人们忽视了潜在的负面影响，因为这种单一资源带来的感觉就是富足。

And these would be the moments in a petro state that seem wonderful, that make people gloss over what could be the downside because that single resource just feels like abundance.

我的意思是，这确实是富足。

I mean, it is abundance.

石油无处不在。

Oil was everywhere.

你根本无法避开它。

You could not escape it.

这就是米格尔·廷克·萨拉斯在20世纪50年代所进入的世界。

That is the world Miguel Tinker Salas entered into in the nineteen fifties.

我出生在委内瑞拉东部的一个名为卡里皮托的石油营地。

I was born in Eastern Venezuela in an oil camp named Caripito.

你出生在石油营地？

You were born in an oil camp?

是的。

Yes.

一个石油营地。

An oil camp.

一个由美国公司——七姐妹之一的克里奥尔石油公司——建造的公司城镇。

A company town built by the American company, one of the seven sisters, Creole Petroleum.

事实上，我们找到了一段关于他们在委内瑞拉石油业务的宣传视频。

In fact, we found a little, promotional video about their Venezuelan oil operation.

这些水域下的石油属于当地人民，但将石油开采出来、提炼和营销的艰巨任务，则是由私人外国资本和工程智慧完成的，其中很大一部分来自北美。

The oil beneath these waters belongs to those people, but the stupendous task of bringing it to the surface, refining and marketing, has been the work of private foreign capital and engineering genius, much of it North America.

米格尔的母亲在克里奥尔石油公司的医院工作。

Miguel's mother worked at the Creole Petroleum Hospital.

他父亲在港口、码头和炼油厂工作。

His father worked at the ports, on the docks, in the refinery.

我父亲并不属于石油行业的上层。

My father was not in in the upper echelons of the oil industry.

他靠双手在码头工作。

He worked in the docks with his hands.

他每天早上早早出门，有时凌晨四点才回来，浑身沾满油污。

He would leave in the morning early and come back sometimes by 04:00 covered in oil.

我母亲得用煤油给他擦洗，才能去掉身上的油渍。

My mother would have to wash him down with kerosene to get the oil stains off.

我小时候清楚地记得，看着他必须把身上和衣服上的油污彻底清洗干净。

I recall that very vividly as a child seeing him having to clean all the the oil off of his body and off of his clothes.

即使在那时，米格尔就说他能察觉到石油带来的利润并没有在全国范围内公平分配。

And even at that age, Miguel says he could see the profits from the oil were not necessarily being distributed equally across the country.

在营地里，克里奥尔石油公司决定了所有居民生活的方方面面。

In the camp, Creole Petroleum defined everything about the lives of the people who lived there.

这是一个城中之城、国中之国，独立于委内瑞拉更大的社会体系之外运作。

It was this city within a city, a state within a state, that operated independently of the larger society in Venezuela.

这是一个美国的飞地。

It was this American US enclave.

你有专业高级职员营地。

You had the professional senior staff camp.

你有初级职员营地，这可能主要指的是委内瑞拉本地的专业人员。

You had the junior staff camp, which probably meant mostly Venezuelan professionals.

每个营地都有自己的社交俱乐部。

Each one had their own social club.

每个营地都有自己的居住区。

Each one had their own residential area.

这一单一资源支撑着整个国家的经济，这意味着委内瑞拉人完全受制于这些石油公司。

This single resource fueling the entire country's economy meant that Venezuelans were completely at the mercy of these oil companies, though.

到了二十世纪六十年代，胡安·巴勃罗·佩雷斯·阿方索成为了委内瑞拉的石油部长。

By the nineteen sixties, Juan Pablo Perez Alfonso had become the oil minister of Venezuela.

他正在研究一种方式，通过与伊朗、伊拉克、沙特阿拉伯、科威特等其他产油国结盟，进一步扩大委内瑞拉的影响力。

He was working on a way to expand Venezuela's power even further by banding together with other petro states like Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait.

他不希望它们彼此竞争，并认为它们应该统一石油的买卖方式。

He didn't want them to compete with each other, and he said that they should standardize how oil is bought and sold.

它们形成了一种石油卡特尔。

They became an oil cartel.

这就是欧佩克——石油输出国组织的开端。

That was the beginning of OPEC, the organization of the petroleum exporting countries.

他们决定一致同意各自的石油产量。

They said, we're gonna agree on how much oil to produce.

通过这样做，他们设定了价格。

And by doing that, they set a price.

在欧佩克早期一次于加拉加斯召开的会议开幕式上，胡安·巴勃罗向其他创始成员发表了讲话。

At the opening speech of an early OPEC conference in Caracas, Juan Pablo spoke to his fellow founding members.

他对他们说，我们不能忽视向富裕国家收取的、对我们有限资源而言过低的价格。

He tells him, we can't ignore the low price we're charging to rich countries for our finite resources.

他说，我们不能让摆脱贫困的机会就这样从我们手中溜走。

He says we can't let our chance to rise out of poverty just slip away from us.

现在，是欧佩克国家在制定规则，而不是雪佛龙这样的跨国石油公司。

Now the OPEC countries were setting the rules, not the multinational oil companies like Chevron.

但委内瑞拉和所有石油国家仍然受制于石油需求的巨大波动，无论这种波动是由供应还是政治驱动的。

But Venezuela and all the petro states were still at the mercy of big swings in demand for oil, whether driven by supply or by politics.

因此，委内瑞拉不断经历着繁荣与萧条的周期。

So Venezuela constantly went through a period of boom and bust cycles.

繁荣与萧条。

Boom and bust.

单一经济脆弱性。

Monoeconomic vulnerability.

许多人会认为，这是资源诅咒国家的典型特征。

A classic feature of a country with a resource curse, many would argue.

是的。

Yep.

米格尔长大后成为了一位委内瑞拉历史学家，主要生活在美国。

Miguel would grow up to be a Venezuelan historian, mostly here in The US.

但在七十年代，他仍住在加拉加斯，经历了委内瑞拉最盛大的一次繁荣期。

But in the seventies, he was still in Caracas for one of the biggest booms Venezuela experienced.

当时，由于政治原因，美国无法从阿拉伯国家获取石油，因此不得不向委内瑞拉支付巨额费用购买石油。

At the time, because of politics, The US was not getting oil from Arab countries, which meant it was paying oodles of money to Venezuela for oil.

加上双方达成协议，至少将一半利润与委内瑞拉政府分享，那真是繁荣再繁荣，宝贝。

And with that agreement to share at least half their profits with Venezuela's government, it was boom boom boom time, baby.

是的。

Yeah.

加拉加斯，委内瑞拉充满活力的城市。

Caracas, the swinging city of Venezuela.

气候宜人，建筑精美，宽阔的高速公路车水马龙。

Good climates, fine buildings, wide highways with plenty on them.

总的来说，由于诸多原因，那是一个非常宜居的地方。

All in all, a pretty nice place to be for many reasons.

你有高速公路和高层建筑。

You had freeways, high rise structures.

你有美式百货商店。

You had American style department stores.

我们有协和式飞机从委内瑞拉直飞巴黎。

We had the Concorde landing in Venezuela, with direct flights to Paris.

协和式飞机？

The Concorde?

等等。

Wait.

等等。

Wait.

协和式飞机为什么会在那里？

The what was the Concorde doing there?

它是从加拉加斯飞往巴黎的。

It was flying from Caracas to Paris.

有些人可以在周五乘飞机，几小时后到达迈阿密，度过一个购物的周末，周日再返回加拉加斯。

Some people could take flights on Friday, and be in be in Miami in a couple hours, spend the weekend shopping, return to Caracas on Sunday.

就在这一切发生的同时，委内瑞拉正朝着国有化的下一步迈进。

Now while this was all happening, Venezuela was taking the next step on its march towards nationalization.

1976年，委内瑞拉兑现了承诺，完全接管了其石油资源，不再由跨国公司掌控。

In 1976, Venezuela made good on its promise to fully take over the ownership of its oil from the multinational corporations.

不再有五五分成协议。

No more fifty fifty agreement.

一家名为委内瑞拉石油公司（Petróleos de Venezuela，简称PDVSA）的新公司将负责所有石油事务。

A new company, Petrolios de Venezuela, known as Pedevesa, would be in charge of all the oil.

委内瑞拉说：我们现在是老大了。

Venezuela said, we're the boss now.

外国公司可以留下，但必须遵守严格的规定，本质上成为国营石油公司的承包商。

The foreign companies could stay, but under strict rules, they would essentially be contractors of the state run oil company.

在这种新安排下，雪佛龙、埃克森以及所有这些大型石油公司仍然存在，但它们比以往任何时候都更依赖委内瑞拉，并分享更多的利润。

So under this new arrangement, Chevron and Exxon and all these big oil companies remained, but they were more than ever beholden to Venezuela and sharing more profits than ever.

在被称为‘沙特委内瑞拉’的时期。

During the period known as La Venezuela Saudita or Saudi Venezuela.

沙特委内瑞拉。

Saudi Venezuela.

像沙特阿拉伯吗？

Like Saudi Arabia?

沙特委内瑞拉？

Saudi Venezuela?

沙特阿拉伯。

Saudi Arabia.

是的。

Yes.

沙特委内瑞拉，当时的口号是：很便宜。

Saudi Venezuela, where the slogan was, it's cheap.

给我来两份吧，因为我付得起？

Give me two, because I can I can afford it?

就在这个时候，斯坦福大学的政治经济学家特里·卡尔首次以研究生身份前往委内瑞拉。

It was actually around this time that Stanford political economist, Terri Carl, first went to Venezuela as a graduate student.

石油资金正源源不断地涌入这个国家。

Oil funds are just pouring into the country.

钱多到你简直无法相信。

There's so much money around that you can't even believe it.

人人都戴着金饰。

Everybody's wearing gold.

每个人都拥有三辆车。

Everybody has three cars.

你知道吗？

You know?

我去参加了一位著名委内瑞拉经济学家新书的发布会，为了庆祝这本书的问世，他们直接把一瓶威士忌倒在了书上。

I went to the inauguration of a book by one of the famous economists of Venezuela, and to baptize the book, they poured an entire bottle of scotch over it.

什么？

What?

那时候，威士忌可是相当值钱的。

And scotch was like back then back then, this was a lot of money.

特里，这太疯狂了。

Terry, this is wild.

这确实太疯狂了。

So this is wild.

那真是个疯狂的年代。

It's a wild time.

对吧？

Right?

特里告诉我们，当时总统的一位亲密朋友正在炫耀石油开采设备。

Terry told us that a close personal friend of the then president was flaunting the tools of oil extraction.

他说是情人。

He said lover.

她说那是情人。

She said it was the lover.

他的情人过去常在脖子上戴一条金链子，链子上挂着一个巨大的金色钻井平台，就挂在她的胸脯之间。

His lover used to wear a a gold chain around her neck with a huge gold derrick, you know, in her cleavage.

所以委内瑞拉比以往任何时候都更富裕，但有一个问题。

So Venezuela was richer than ever, but there was one problem.

这些财富被管理不善，许多人会这么认为。

Those riches were being mismanaged, many would argue.

特里告诉我们一个关于她拜访胡安·巴勃罗·佩雷斯·阿方索的故事，这位关键的石油部长过去主导了委内瑞拉的许多石油政策。

Terry told us this story of a visit with Juan Pablo Perez Alfonso, that key oil minister who had driven so much of Venezuela's oil policy in the past.

当时胡安·巴勃罗已经下台，当特里告诉他她打算研究欧佩克时，胡安·巴勃罗对她说：不行。

Juan Pablo was out of office at this point, and when Terry told him that she was planning to do some research on OPEC, Juan Pablo told her, no.

不行。

No.

去别处看看。

Look elsewhere.

我说：好的。

I said, okay.

那你希望我研究什么呢？

So what will you had what would you have me study?

他说：研究石油给委内瑞拉带来了什么影响，这意味着它是魔鬼的粪便。

And he said, study what oil is doing to us in Venezuela, which means it's the devil's excrement.

哦，是的。

Oh, yeah.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

这一点翻译起来很清楚。

That one translates pretty clearly.

是的。

Yep.

我当时就问：你在说什么？

And I just went, what are you talking about?

我怎么也忘不了他这句话。

And I couldn't get his phrase out of my mind.

于是我不断回去探究，开始以他的视角看待委内瑞拉。

So I kept going back, and I started to see Venezuela as he saw it.

在接下来的几十年里，她看到的是一个几乎被国有化的石油产业，充斥着腐败、浪费和低效。

Over the next couple of decades, what she saw, a near nationalized oil industry that was rife with corruption, waste, inefficiency.

他们把石油当作会下金蛋的鹅，却在慢慢杀死这只鹅。

They were using it as sort of the goose that laid the golden eggs, but they were slowly killing the goose.

腐败是资源诅咒的另一个典型特征，特里正近距离地目睹着这一切。

Corruption is another classic feature of the resource curse, and and Terry was seeing some of this up close.

钱在流动，但并不一定流向他们声称的地方。

The money is flowing, but not with necessarily where they say it is.

例如，委内瑞拉有一个地区每年有六个月都会被洪水淹没，之后洪水退去，变成一片沙漠。

For example, there's an area of Venezuela that floods six months out of the year and that then all the waters recede in its desert.

那里不适合居住。

It's not habitable.

那里满是鳄鱼，当时的总统告诉她，他们有一个大型基础设施项目，旨在让那里变得宜居、肥沃，还有各种令人兴奋的计划。

It was full of crocodiles, and the president at the time told her they had this major infrastructure project there to make it habitable and fertile and all kinds of exciting stuff.

所以特里想去实地看看。

So Terry wanted to go check it out.

我实际上是骑马去的那个地方，到了之后发现那里什么都没有。

I actually went by horseback to that area, and I got out there, and there was absolutely nothing there.

什么都没有。

Nothing.

连基础设施的影子都没有，也没有人进行任何测量。

Not the beginning of infrastructure, not anybody measuring anything.

什么都没有。

Nothing.

就是什么都没有。

Just nothing.

是的。

Uh-huh.

所以我不知道那笔合同款去哪了。

So I don't know where that contract money went.

是的。

Uh-huh.

但我知道它没用在该用的地方。

But I know it didn't go to where it was supposed to.

对。

Mhmm.

她在那里看到的最引人注目的东西，是地上一个看起来像巨大旧轮胎的东西。

The most striking thing she saw out there was what looked like a big old tire on the ground.

我的马突然扬起前蹄尖叫，有人冲我大喊：‘森蚺，森蚺！’

And my horse was rearing and screaming, and somebody was screaming at me, Anaconda, Anaconda.

我以为Anaconda是一家铜公司的名字。

And I thought Anaconda was the name of a copper company.

不是。

No.

所以我完全错过了当时发生了什么。

So I missed exactly what was going on.

这个巨大的内胎实际上是我一生中见过的最大的蛇，也是最危险的蛇。

And this big this big inner tube was in fact the biggest snake I've ever seen in my and most dangerous snake I've ever seen in my entire life.

很高兴你还在这里，特里。

I'm glad you're still with us, Terry.

很高兴你还在这里。

I'm glad you're still with us.

为特里辩护一下，Anaconda确实是一家铜公司的名字，而且当时电影《森蚺》还没上映。

In Terry's defense, it is the name of a copper company, and the groundbreaking ice cube movie, Anaconda, had not come out yet.

那么她怎么知道呢？

So how was she to know?

她不可能知道。

She couldn't have known.

理解委内瑞拉资源诅咒影响的一种方式是，不仅仅是政府变得腐败。

One way to understand the impact of Venezuela's resource curse is that it wasn't only the government that became corrupt.

每个人都清楚石油资金充裕，因此他们根本没去发展其他收入来源。

Everyone knew the oil money was plentiful, so they didn't bother to develop other sources of income.

石油在全国范围内制造了自满情绪。

Oil created complacency across the country.

每个人都只是在开采石油井。

Everybody was just tapping the oil well.

如果你是一家建筑公司，建造一栋房子的成本，你可能会向政府索要实际成本的三倍。

If you were gonna be a construction company, the cost of building a house, you would probably ask for three times from the government the cost of what it really cost.

这是一种分配体系。

It's a system of distribution.

所以每个人都在玩这个游戏。

So everyone was kind of playing this game.