古巴经济实验的黑暗时期

这是NPR的Planet Money节目。

This is Planet Money from NPR.

古巴正面临危机。

Cuba is in crisis.

自一月以来，美国一直阻止几乎所有的石油运抵该岛。

Since January, The US has been preventing almost all oil from reaching the island.

医生们无法到达他们工作的医院。

Doctors can't get to the hospitals where they work.

许多公交车都停运了。

Many buses aren't running.

卡车无法将食物和药品运送到需要的地方。

Trucks can't deliver food and medicine where they're needed.

由于频繁且长时间的停电，人们的生命安全受到威胁。

People's lives are in danger because there are frequent and long blackouts.

在过去的几周里，不止一次，整个国家都陷入停电状态。

In the last few weeks, on more than one occasion, the entire country has lacked power.

在其中一个案例中，持续了整整一天以上。

In one case, for more than a full day.

我们想了解现在在古巴，人们是如何努力生存的。

We wanted to understand what it's like for people trying to make their way in Cuba right now.

尝试工作或经营生意是什么样的体验。

What it's like to try to work or to run a business.

尽管古巴有共产主义政府，但有时它的私营经济部门也曾相当繁荣。

Because even though Cuba has a communist government, at times, it's also had a pretty thriving private business sector.

但最近，这些停电变得如此频繁，以至于连给手机充电都变得困难。

But recently, these blackouts have become so frequent that it's hard to even charge your phone.

手机信号和互联网时断时续。

Cell service and Internet are spotty.

所以我一直在通过语音留言与人们交流。

So I've been talking to people through voice notes.

比如这位农民拉迪·卡萨米罗，她说她每天只能用手机大约两小时，而且完全不知道什么时候能用。

Like this farmer, Lady Casamiro, who says she can only use her phone for about two hours a day and never knows when.

她还告诉我们，现在她没有汽油，所以无法去见和她一起工作的另一位农民。

She also told us right now she has no gas, so she can't get to the other farmer she works with.

一位名叫阿尔弗雷多·梅德罗斯·加西亚的酒店经理告诉我，停电时，必须保持冰箱门关闭。

A hotel manager named Alfredo Mederos Garcia told me when the electricity's out, you have to keep the fridge closed.

尽量不要打开它。

Try not to open it.

一旦电力恢复，就要立刻行动。

And then when the electricity comes back on, you jump into action.

很多人说，如果电力在半夜恢复，那就是他们做饭的时候。

A lot of people said that if the power comes on in the middle of the night, that's when they cook.

那就是他们使用电脑、打电话的时候。

That's when they work on their computers, use their phone.

比如这位经营自行车生意的人。

Like this guy who runs a bicycle business.

是的，先生。

Yes, sir.

冈萨雷斯·卡布雷拉打算发送的不只是几条消息。

Gonzalez Cabrera was up for sending more than just a few messages.

于是我便说，好吧，我来录下我的问题。

So I said, okay, I'll record my questions.

你来录下你的回答。

And you record your answers.

我们一直就是这样做的。

And that's what we've been doing.

在他最早的一条消息中，他告诉我，古巴的情况已经糟糕一段时间了。

In one of his earliest messages, he told me things have been bad in Cuba for a while.

但最近的石油禁运和由此引发的停电，影响了生活的方方面面。

But the recent oil embargo and the resulting blackouts, it's affecting every aspect of life.

基本的生活。

The basic life.

在一些消息中，他的声音听起来很正常。

In some messages, his voice sounds normal.

你可以

You can

能听到背景里的鸟鸣。

hear the birds in the background.

有时他在萨凡纳的街区散步，或者在厨房里做饭。

Sometimes he's walking down the street in his Savannah neighborhood, or he's in his kitchen cooking.

有时背景里会播放音乐。

Sometimes music is playing in background.

但有时他录下这些语音留言时，听起来就像独自一人坐在黑暗中。

But then sometimes he records these voice notes, and it sounds like he's just sitting by himself in the dark.

他告诉我，他担心父母，因为他们的电力状况更糟。

He tells me he worries about his parents because the electricity situation for them is even worse.

因为他们都住在更偏远的地区，而政府优先保障城市供电。

Because they both live in more rural areas and the government is prioritizing cities.

他说他妈妈现在晚上七点就上床睡觉了。

Says his mom, she just goes to bed at seven now.

太阳一落山。

When the sun goes down.

是的，先生。

Yes, sir.

那个骑自行车的人在古巴吗？

Is the bike guy in Cuba.

你可能会想，整个岛屿电力如此匮乏，也许现在骑自行车生意会是个不错的选择。

And you'd think with so little electricity across the island, maybe bikes might actually be a good business at this moment in time.

但要想赚钱，他需要游客。

Except to make any money, he needs tourists.

而古巴过去是有游客的。

Which Cuba used to have.

尽管古巴曾经是一个完全由共产主义计划经济主导的国家，但就在不久之前，它曾拥有一个规模虽小却充满活力的私营部门。

Because even though Cuba was once a a 100% strict communist state run economy, at one point, not that long ago, it had a small but vibrant private sector.

在亚瑟生意最鼎盛的时候，他每月为大约400名游客提供自行车游览服务。

At the height of Yasser's business, he was running bike tours for like 400 tourists a month.

但去年，他全年总共才只有大约25位顾客。

But last year, he only had about 25 customers total all year.

而现在，由于各种情况，情况更糟了。

And now with everything going on, it's even worse.

他说，今年他连一个付费顾客都没有。

He says he hasn't even had a paying customer this year.

你可以从他的声音里听出事情有多艰难。

You can hear in his voice how hard things are.

他说，不仅这样生活很难，而且压力很大，让他感到悲伤。

He said not only is it hard to live like this, it's stressful, and it makes him sad.

他告诉我，我过去总能看到我的工作在古巴的很大潜力。

He told me, I always used to see a lot of potential for my work in Cuba.

但现在呢？

But now?

他看不到任何未来。

He doesn't see any future.

你好，欢迎收听《星球金钱》。

Hello, and welcome to Planet Money.

我是埃里卡·贝拉斯。

I'm Erika Beras.

我是尼克·福ountain。

And I'm Nick Fountain.

古巴漫长而曲折的经济实验前景极为不确定。

The long and winding economic experiment that is Cuba has an extremely uncertain future.

亚瑟的父母在共产主义古巴长大，那时国家掌控一切。

Yasser's parents grew up in communist Cuba, where the state was in charge of everything.

后来亚瑟成长于一个宽松得多的古巴，有人甚至称之为有点资本主义的古巴，他可以自己创业。

Then Yasser came of age in a much looser, some might even say capitalist ish Cuba, where he could start his own business.

而现在，亚瑟连打个电话都难以规划，更不用说经营生意了。

And now Yasser can't even plan for a phone call, much less run

今天在节目中，我们来看看古巴是如何走到今天的。

Today on the show, how did Cuba get here?

六十多年来，古巴一直依靠两种看似矛盾的经济策略生存：一方面坚持共产主义和社会主义，另一方面又与资本主义这个亦敌亦友的伙伴暧昧往来。

For more than sixty years, Cuba has survived on two seemingly contradictory economic strategies, leaning on its communist and socialist and flirting with its frenemy, capitalism.

而如今，美国似乎正在让这两种策略都变得不可能。

And right now, it seems like The US is making both strategies impossible.

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This message comes from Wise, the app for international people using money around the globe.

您只需轻点几下，即可发送、消费和接收多达40种货币。

You can send, spend, and receive in up to 40 currencies with only a few simple taps.

聪明一点。

Be smart.

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Download the Wise app today or visit wise.com.

条款和条件适用。

Ts and cs apply.

当我问亚瑟，这一切是怎么发生的？

When I asked Yasser, how did all this happen?

古巴是怎么从短暂繁荣走向近乎崩溃的？

How did Cuba go from this mini boom to near failure?

是因为过去几个月美国的石油禁运吗？

Was it because of The US oil embargo over the last few months?

我猜他听了之后，揉了揉太阳穴，心想：我该从哪儿说起呢？

I'm guessing he listened, rubbed his temples, and was like, where do I start?

在他回我的信息中，他说最近几个月发生的事，只是长期趋势的加剧。

In his message back, he told me what's happened the last few months is an intensification of what's been happening for a long time.

他说，这很复杂。

It's complicated, he said.

所以为了弄清楚这些复杂的问题，我还联系了一位经济学家。

So for help with my complicated questions, I also contacted an economist.

你是古巴人吗？

So you are Cuban?

我是古巴人。

I am Cuban.

出生并成长在古巴。

Born and raised.

但你现在不在古巴。

But you're not in Cuba now.

我不在古巴。

I'm not in Cuba.

我五年前离开了古巴。

I left Cuba almost five years ago.

这是里卡多·托雷斯，一位经济学家，我们现在可以打电话给他，因为他有稳定的互联网和手机服务。

This is Ricardo Torres, an economist who we can speak with on the phone right now because he does have regular Internet and cell service.

他在华盛顿特区。

He's in Washington DC.

他在美国大学工作。

He works at American University.

但在那之前，里卡多一直生活在古巴，还在那里攻读了经济学专业。

But before all that, Ricardo lived and studied economics in Cuba.

所以要聊聊古巴那场持续数十年、在社会主义盟友与亦敌亦友的资本主义之间摇摆的经济实验，找他来聊再合适不过了。

So he was the perfect person to talk to us about Cuba's decades long economic experiment, going between its communist compadres and its frenemy, capitalism.

这场实验要从1959年的革命说起。里卡多还在上小学的时候就听说过这段历史，老师们会给他讲那场伟大革命的英雄事迹，这场革命是由他们爱戴的领袖菲德尔·卡斯特罗领导的。

Starting with the nineteen fifty nine revolution, which Ricardo learned about in elementary school when his teachers would tell him the heroic story of the great revolution led by their beloved leader, Fidel Castro.

1959年以前，古巴由一名独裁者统治，美国企业掌控着古巴绝大多数的甘蔗田、炼油厂、铁路、酒店和赌场。

Before 1959, Cuba was run by a dictator, and American companies ran most of Cuba's sugar fields and refineries, railroads, hotels, casinos.

后来古巴叛军推翻了原政府，将古巴建成了一个社会主义共产主义国家。

Then Cuban rebels overthrew the government and made Cuba into a socialist communist country.

古巴距离美国仅有90英里，而且当时正处于冷战时期。

Cuba is just 90 miles from The US, and this was the Cold War.

这两个国家彻底反目成仇，完全算不上伙伴。

These two countries became the opposite of Compadres.

于是美国对古巴实施了一场堪称史上最严苛的贸易封锁。

So The US imposed what soon became the mother of all embargoes on Cuba.

美国的东西一律不得出口到古巴。

Nothing from The US could be exported to Cuba.

因此，起初古巴的经济策略是依靠它的共产主义盟友，也就是它的伙伴。

So at the outset, Cuba's economic strategy was lean on its communist friends, its compadres.

这时，古巴完全是一个共产主义国家。

At this point, Cuba was a 100% fully communist.

每个人都由政府雇佣。

Everyone was employed by the government.

政府分配工作、设定工资，并拥有和控制一切。

The government appointed people to jobs, it set wages, and it owned and controlled everything.

政府发给人们小本子，也就是纸质的配给本，上面注明每个人或每个家庭每月在指定商店能领取多少种类和数量的食物。

The government gave people little ration books, little paper books that told them how much of what kind of food a person or a family could get in a given month at a given store.

古巴政府现在拥有了烟草和糖业。

The Cuban government now owned the tobacco and sugar industry.

为了获取其他所需物资，尤其是石油，它依赖于其最强大的共产主义盟友——苏联。

And to get the other things it needed, especially oil, it relied on its most powerful communist compadre, the Soviet Union.

苏联以高于其价值的价格购买古巴商品，并以低于其价值的价格向古巴出售石油。

The Soviets bought Cuban goods for more than they were worth and sold Cuba oil for less than it was worth.

他们还获得了距离其死敌美国仅90英里的一个岛屿。

They also got access to an island 90 miles away from their mortal enemy, The United States.

在几十年里，是的，这奏效了。

And for a few decades, yeah, it worked.

古巴很贫穷，但与苏联的合作使其得以维持。

Cuba was poor, but collaboration with the Soviets kept it going.

即使古巴的穷人，他们的基本需求也得到了保障。

Even the poor in Cuba, they had their basics covered.

比如住所？

Like shelter?

是的。

Yeah.

比如住所，通过配给本获得足够的食物。

Like shelter, like through the rationing book and sufficient food.

而且你总是可以送孩子去上学，如果生病了也能得到照顾，因为医疗是可及且免费的。

And then you could always send your children to school and you were taken care of if you got ill because healthcare was accessible and free of charge.

在苏联的帮助下，古巴建立了强大的医疗和教育体系。

With help from the Soviets, Cuba developed a strong healthcare and education system.

但在1991年，古巴失去了它的靠山。

But in 1991, Cuba lost its qui compadre.

苏联解体了，不再实行共产主义。

The Soviet Union broke up and stopped being communist.

我的意思是，当我十岁的时候，苏联就消失了。

I mean, the Soviet Union disappeared when I was 10.

是的。

Right.

那些后苏联国家停止了以高价购买古巴的出口产品，也不再向古巴提供廉价石油。

And those post Soviet countries stopped paying top dollar for Cuban exports and sending Cuba cheap oil.

这对古巴来说是毁灭性的打击。

And this was devastating for Cuba.

二十世纪九十年代初的这段时期被称为‘特殊时期’，听起来好像挺特别，但实际上非常糟糕。

This period in the early nineties was called the special period, which makes it sound good special, but was actually terrible.

食物更少了。

There was less food.

古巴的国内生产总值下降了35%。

Cuba's GDP sank by 35%.

人们正在受苦、逃离，有些人甚至用能找到的任何东西制作木筏，试图漂洋过海去美国。

People were suffering, fleeing, some people even making rafts out of whatever they could find and trying to float to The US.

但里卡多说，许多古巴人仍然相信革命的理想。

But Ricardo says many Cubans still believed in the revolutionary dream.

他们没有物质储备，但他们有信念，他称之为道德储备。

They didn't have material reserves, but they did have faith, what he calls moral reserves.

道德储备的意思是，社会主义确实有效。

Moral reserves in a way that, okay, socialism does work.

我们只是运气不好而已。

We just had now bad luck.

我们被遗弃了。

We were abandoned.

我们被这些国家抛在了身后，在古巴人看来，它们就是叛徒。

We were we were left behind by these countries, traitors, as they would put it in Cuba.

但我们一定能渡过难关，重回那段繁荣时期。

But we'll figure it out and we'll go back to that period of well-being.

到那时，里卡多弄到一本旧的苏联经济学教科书，书中颂扬了共产主义国家的优点，并突出了资本主义国家的不平等。

By that time, Ricardo had gotten his hands on an old Soviet economics textbook that extolled the virtues of communist countries and highlighted the inequalities of capitalist ones.

但年轻的里卡多不禁疑惑：既然共产主义这么好，为什么苏联会解体并抛弃它呢？

But young Ricardo was wondering, okay, well, why did the Soviet Union break up and ditch communism if it was so great?

也许现实和我在书里看到的有些不同。

Well, perhaps reality is a little bit different from what I saw in the book.

这正是古巴可能需要重新评估其策略的时刻。

And this this was a moment where maybe Cuba had to reassess its strategy.

我们真的只能依靠这些共产主义盟友来生存吗？

Like, are we gonna survive sticking only to this communist compadres crowd?

苏联解体后几年，古巴不再得到其援助，几十年来首次不情愿地尝试与一些资本主义的‘准朋友’打交道。

So a few years after the Soviet Union broke up and Cuba no longer had its help, Cuba, for the first time in decades, begrudgingly tried basically hanging out with some capitalist frenemies.

1993年，古巴自革命以来首次开始了资本主义实验。

In 1993, Cuba started its first experiment in capitalism since the revolution.

我要称之为加勒比式共产主义，但带有一丁点资本主义的例外。

I'm gonna call it Caribbean communism, but with a teeny tiny capitalist exception.

里卡多说，这本应是暂时的。

Ricardo says this was supposed to be temporary.

但这意义重大。

But it was a big deal.

是的。

Yes.

以前，每个人都由古巴政府雇佣。

Before, everyone was employed by Cuba.

但现在古巴人可以自雇，经营自己的生意。

But now Cubans could be self employed, have their own businesses.

在美国，这引起了巨大关注。

In The US, this made big news.

这里是周末版。

This is weekend edition.

我是斯科特·西蒙。

I'm Scott Simon.

菲德尔·卡斯特罗本周改组了经济内阁，提拔了几位被视为改革派的部长。

Fidel Castro changed his economic cabinet this week, promoted several ministers considered to be reformers.

这被解读为古巴在努力适应过程中，进一步转向市场导向改革的又一迹象。

This has been interpreted as one more sign of Cuba's increasing turn to market oriented reforms as it tries

来应对。

to cope.

但对这个新私营部门、这些新私营企业，有很多限制。

But there were a lot of restrictions on this new private sector, these new private businesses.

你的雇员必须是家人，而且你只能雇佣有限的数量。

Your employees had to be family members, and you could only have so many of them.

事实上，他们在生产、定价以及所有我们通常与自由企业相关的事务上，几乎没有做出重要决策的自由。

The reality is that they had little freedom in making important decisions when it comes to production, prices, and all kinds of things that we we would associate with free enterprise.

基本上，任何对商业有意义的事情都不由你决定。

Basically, anything meaningful to a business was not up to you.

而是由国家决定。

It was up to the state.

所以这只是一个微小的初步举措。

So this was a tiny first move.

从事小生意的人数非常少。

The number of people working in small businesses was really small.

不到1%。

Less than 1%.

他们还尝试了其他一些措施，比如首次小规模发展旅游业，以及尝试将第二种货币与美元挂钩。

They tried a few other things, like a first small experiment in tourism, an experiment pegging a second currency to the dollar.

但这些措施都不足以让古巴摆脱经济危机。

But none of that was enough to pull Cuba out of its economic crisis.

于是，古巴转向了它旧有的朋友群体，向它的共产主义和社会主义盟友寻求帮助。

So Cuba turned back to its old friend group, went to its communist and socialist compadres for help.

古巴进一步发展了与中国的合作关系。

Cuba further developed its relationship with China.

例如，他们从中国以优惠价格购入了约一百万辆自行车，以应对严重的燃油短缺。

For example, they got a great deal from China on about a million bikes to deal with all those fuel shortages.

但古巴在这一时期建立的最重要联盟是与石油之国委内瑞拉的联盟。

But the biggest alliance that Cuba made during this time was with Venezuela, the land of oil.

有一段著名的演讲，当时查韦斯在哈瓦那赞扬菲德尔·卡斯特罗，称美国的自由贸易理念本质上是殖民主义的回归。

There's this famous speech where Hugo Chavez is in Havana praising Fidel Castro, saying US free trade ideals are basically a return to colonialism.

他还谈到，古巴是每一位拉丁美洲革命者的梦想。

And he talks about how Cuba is in the dreams of every Latin American revolutionary.

里卡多说，在2000年，委内瑞拉和古巴达成了一项属于他们自己的贸易协议。

Ricardo says in the year 2000, Venezuela and Cuba agreed to their own sort of trade deal.

古巴开始向委内瑞拉提供服务。

Cuba started providing services to Venezuela.

教师、医生，还有拳击和棒球教练。

Teachers, doctors, also boxing and baseball coaches.

是的。

Yeah.

他们并没有用委内瑞拉进行交换。

They didn't exchange Venezuela.

他们基本上是输送了石油。

They basically sent in oil.

嗯。

Uh-huh.

委内瑞拉输送了石油。

Venezuela sent oil.

那是委内瑞拉拥有的唯一一样东西

She's the one thing

而这也是古巴所需要的。

that Venezuela had that Cuba needed.

那就是这笔交易。

That was the trade.

在石油方面，委内瑞拉扮演了苏联曾经的角色。

When it came to oil, Venezuela took the role that the Soviets had played.

很快，古巴的GDP开始快速增长。

And soon, Cuba's GDP was growing faster.

古巴从濒临崩溃中恢复了过来。

Cuba was back from the brink.

在21世纪初，里卡多在哈瓦那获得了一份教经济学的工作。

In the early two thousands, Ricardo got a job teaching economics in Havana.

作为一名学者，他能够前往欧洲和美国，他说他本可以离开古巴。

As an academic, he was able to visit Europe and The US, and he says he could have left Cuba.

但他想，既然我能研究甚至可能影响这场庞大的经济实验，为什么要离开呢？

But he was like, why leave when I can study and maybe even influence this giant economic experiment?

嗯，我说，为什么不呢？

Well, I said, why not?

我的意思是，如果你想为自己的国家做点什么，这里是个不错的地方。

I mean, this is a good, the good place to be if you want to do something for your own country.

古巴政府长期以来以压制异见而臭名昭著。

The Cuban government has been infamously repressive of dissent.

但里卡多表示，作为一名经济学家，他能够接触并研究数据，并就古巴经济展开公开讨论。

But Ricardo says, as an economist, he was able to access and study data and hold public discussions about the Cuban economy.

就在古巴再次调整其外交关系时，他正在做这些事，因为古巴的原共产主义领导人菲德尔·卡斯特罗病倒了，他的弟弟劳尔接过了权力。

And that's what he was doing when Cuba started shaking up its friend group again because Fidel Castro, Cuba's original communist leader, got sick, and his brother Raul took over.

他开始说，我们的经济状况并不好，我们可以将一些问题归因于我们的经济体制，因此我们需要引入一些变革。

He started talking about our economy is not in good shape, and we can trace some of the factors behind that to our economic system, so we need to introduce some some changes here.

保持共产主义，但稍微多一点资本主义。

Stay communist, but get a little more capitalist.

再开放一点。

Open up some more.

把资本主义这事儿再推得更猛一点。

Crank up this capitalism thing.

这让我们提升了一个档次。

That kicked us up a notch.

劳尔·卡斯特罗说，让我们扩大我们那微不足道的私营部门。

Raul Castro said, let's expand our teeny tiny private sector.

当时，古巴的小企业基本上都是人们在家经营的小餐馆、出租车，或者出租自家房间。

At the time, Cuba's small businesses were basically tiny restaurants run out of people's homes or taxis or people renting rooms out of their houses.

劳尔说，让我们扩大允许的经营范围。

And Raul said, let's expand what's allowed.

让我们允许小企业雇用家庭成员以外的人。

Let's let our small businesses hire outside of their families.

并尝试吸引更多游客。

And try to bring in more tourists.

政府更新了一份人们被允许从事的职业清单。

The government updated a list of jobs people were allowed to hold.

现在他们有了近200种选择，比如理发师、为游客装扮哈瓦那老城的算命师或复古绅士，以及为规模中等且持续增长的旅游业服务的特定音乐表演者。

Now they had almost 200 options, like a barber, someone who dresses up an old Havana for a tourist is like a fortune teller or an old school dandy, specific musical acts for the now medium sized and still growing tourism industry.

但这并不是资本主义的全面放开。

This wasn't like capitalism unleashed, though.

里卡多说，政府仍然担心自由市场会占据主导。

Ricardo says the government was still wary of the free market taking over.

我们希望私营部门作为国家活动的补充，但它不能比国家部门更重要。

We want the private sector as long as it is a complement to state activity, but it cannot become more important than the state sector.

不过，拉尔在这段时间实际上在与美国接触。

Still, Raul is actually talking to The United States around this time.

奥巴马总统开始放宽对古巴的贸易和旅行限制，古巴的私营部门因此进一步扩大。

President Obama starts to loosen restrictions on trade and travel with Cuba, and Cuba's private sector grows even bigger.

就在这个时候，亚赛尔——那个通过语音笔记回答我们问题的人——真正开始迷上了自行车。

It was around this time that Yasser, the guy nabana, who's been answering our questions via voice notes, really got into bikes.

他当时二十多岁。

He was in his twenties.

他是一名软件工程师，听说了美国和其他地方发生的关于自行车的一切。

He was working as a software engineer, and he'd heard about all this bike stuff that was happening in The US and other places.

比如专用自行车道、城市运营的短期自行车租赁服务。

Things like dedicated bike lanes, city run short term bike rentals.

他就想，我们也需要有这样的东西。

And he was like, we need to have that too.

所以呢？

So?

他

He

创办了一家名为Citicleta的公司，在首都提供自行车游览服务。

started a company called Citicleta, hosting bike tours in the capital.

带着一大群人骑着自行车穿行在哈瓦那的街道上。

The big groups riding their bikes through the streets of Havana with him.

我有很多他带领游客骑自行车的视频。

I've all these videos of him leading tourists on bikes.

每个人看起来都很开心。

Everyone seems happy.

古巴看起来真美。

Cuba looks beautiful.

就是有一种整体上很好的氛围。

There's just, you know, general good vibes.

2016年，奥巴马总统访问了古巴，成为自共产主义革命以来首位访问该岛的美国总统。

And in 2016, president Obama visits Cuba, the first president since the communist revolution to visit the island.

这是一个与古巴人民直接接触、建立新协议和商业合作、巩固两国之间新联系的历史性机遇。

It's a historic opportunity to engage directly with the Cuban people and to forge new agreements and commercial deals, to build new ties between

我们两个民族。

our two peoples.

亦敌亦友。

Frenemies.

对亚赛尔的自行车生意来说，这真是太棒了。

For Yasser's bike business, this was awesome.

他正在为来自世界各地的人们提供自行车游览服务。

He was giving bike tours to people from everywhere.

阿勒曼尼亚，奥兰多。

Alemannia, Orlando.

德国，荷兰。

Germany, Holland.

澳大利亚，加拿大。

Australia, Canada.

他的顾客有墨西哥人、哥伦比亚人，还有来自美国的游客。

His customers were Mexicans and Colombians and tourists from The United States.

古巴已经开放营业。

Cuba was open for business.

奢侈时尚品牌香奈儿刚刚在古巴首都举办了其有史以来的首场秀。

Luxury fashion house Chanel just staged its very first show in the Cuban capital.

在那里拍摄了《速度与激情》电影。

Fast and the Furious film there.

该

The

滚石乐队在这个曾经禁止摇滚乐的国家举办了一场盛大的演唱会。

Rolling Stones held a monster concert in this country where rock and roll had once been restricted.

那种热潮，你知道，很多人想来古巴旅游，部分原因源于这种浪漫的想象。

That boom, you know, lots of people wanting to visit Cuba, in part, was driven by this romantic idea.

你知道，古巴变化得太快了。

Well, you know, Cuba is changing so fast.

再过几年，它将不再是一个共产主义国家或社会主义国家。

It's no longer gonna be a communist country or a socialist country in a few years.

所以我们想趁它完全改变之前去那里看看。

So we wanna go there and see it before it changes completely.

古巴的每个角落都有麦当劳，就像其他地方一样。

We have McDonald's in every corner of Cuba, like everywhere else.

所以我们想趁它结束之前去看看。

So we wanna see it before it it it ends.

那时，数十万美国人及其美元涌向古巴，我也在其中。

Many hundreds of thousands of Americans and their dollars went to Cuba around that time, including me.

我那时也在那里。

I was there too.

我们节目的制片人路易斯·加洛也在。

And so was our producer on the show, Luis Gallo.

直到那时，古巴还依赖委内瑞拉的石油和来自美国及其他地区的游客。

Up until this point, Cuba had oil from Venezuela and tourists from The US and elsewhere.

那真是繁荣至极。

It was boom tastic.

石油来自朋友，游客来自亦敌亦友的国家。

Oil from its friends, tourists from its frenemy.

但当然，这一切都结束了。

But, of course, that all came to an end.

广告后继续。

That's after the break.

这条信息来自Wise，一款专为全球使用资金的国际人士设计的应用。

This message comes from Wise, the app for international people using money around the globe.

你可以通过几次简单的点击，发送、消费和接收多达40种货币。

You can send, spend, and receive in up to 40 currencies with only a few simple taps.

聪明一点。

Be smart.

使用Wise。

Get Wise.

立即下载Wise应用或访问wise.com。

Download the Wise app today or visit wise.com.

条款和条件适用。

Ts and cs apply.

所以在古巴与它的‘敌友’资本主义暧昧的鼎盛时期，这个国家全力投入旅游业。

So in the heyday of Cuba's flirtation with its frenemy, capitalism, the country leaned all the way into tourism.

在2010年代，旅游业本应成为人民资本主义的增长引擎。

In the twenty teens, tourism was supposed to be the people's capitalist growth engine.

古巴仍然拥有国营产业。

Cuba still had state owned industries.

它仍在出口糖和雪茄来为政府提供资金，并且仍然得到盟友的帮助。

It was still exporting sugar and cigars to fund its government, and it was still getting help from its allies.

来自委内瑞拉的廉价石油，来自中国的廉价太阳能电池板。

Cheap oil from Venezuela, cheap solar panels from China.

古巴人还可以从美国购买运动鞋、洗碗机、化妆品或驱虫剂。

Cubans could also buy sneakers or dishwashers or cosmetics or bug spray from The US.

但为了赚钱，越来越多的古巴人投身旅游业。

But to make money, more and more Cubans were going into tourism.

人们把自家房屋改造成旅馆，开起了餐馆。

People were converting homes into hotels, opening restaurants.

亚瑟正在带领他的自行车旅游团。

Yasser was leading his bike tours.

古巴经济在很大程度上因旅游业这一行业而增长。

Cuba's economy was growing in large part because of one industry, tourism.

小型经济体往往比大型经济体更加专业化。

Small economies, they tend to be more specialized than big economies.

而如果你的主要产业因为某种原因失效了，那你就会陷入困境。

And then if your main industry is effective for one reason or the other, then you are in troubles.

古巴的旅游业确实遭遇了麻烦。

And trouble did come for tourism in Cuba.

这个行业经历了三大冲击。

Three big shocks to the industry.

第一个大冲击是一种缓慢发生的状况。

The first big shock was sort of a slow moving one.

委内瑞拉经济开始崩溃，因此从2016年起，该国向古巴输送的石油越来越少。

Venezuela's economy started to fall apart, so starting in 2016, the country sent less and less oil to Cuba.

第二个大冲击发生在2017年特朗普首次就任总统时。

The second big shock came when President Trump took office for the first time in 2017.

特朗普并不支持美古关系的缓和。

Trump was not on board with the warming relations between The US and Cuba.

他指责该国侵犯人权，并指控其散布暴力与不稳定，还批评奥巴马在扶持一个压迫性政权。

He cited the country's human rights violations and accused it of spreading violence and instability, accused Obama of propping up a repressive regime.

因此，特朗普恢复了奥巴马放松的许多经济制裁，并再次严格限制旅行。

So Trump brought back many of the economic sanctions Obama had relaxed and heavily restricted travel again.

第三个冲击来自这个以旅游业为驱动的新增长引擎——新冠疫情。

Third shock to this new tourism based growth engine, the pandemic.

旅行完全停止了。

Travel just stopped.

从繁荣到崩溃，却完全没有准备或预兆。

From boom to bust, but, like, without preparation or anticipation of any kind.

短短几个月内，一切几乎都消失了。

Like, in a few months, all gone, almost all gone.

无论是朋友还是敌人，都在对古巴冷眼相待。

Both frenemies and were giving Cuba the cold shoulder.

那时古巴已经换了新总统，他试图挽救国家衰退的经济。

Cuba had a new president by then, and he tried to fix the country's ailing economy.

他说，那些我们允许的小企业，现在可以变得更大。

He said those small businesses we've allowed, now those can get even bigger.

公司最多可以雇佣100名员工。

Companies can hire more employees up to a 100.

根据政府统计数据，古巴当时有近一万家这样的企业。

According to government statistics, there were almost 10,000 of those operating in Cuba.

里卡多说，一些古巴人赚了大钱，但他表示，即使在这一波资本主义尝试之前，政府管控的放松就已经催生了贫富分化的文化。

Ricardo said some Cubans made big money, but he says even before this latest venture into capitalism, the loosening of government controls had given rise to a culture of have and have nots.

整个国家大部分地区都停电了，但在哈瓦那一些较富裕的街区，人们仍在派对。

There'd be a blackout across much of the country, but in some richer neighborhoods in Havana, people would still be partying.

他们点着灯吃龙虾，而古巴人无法接受这种状况。

They'd have lights on eating lobsters, and Cubans did not accept it.

那里

There

爆发了抗议。

were protests.

人们说政府没有照顾他们的需求。

People said the government wasn't taking care of their needs.

里卡多说，人们正在耗尽他所说的道德储备，即对古巴实验终将成功的信念。

Ricardo says that people were running out of that thing he called moral reserves, their faith that the Cuban experiment could ever work.

里卡多自己也很沮丧。

Ricardo too was frustrated.

2021年，他正准备前往美国。

In 2021, he was preparing to go to The U.

美。

S.

为了获得一个奖学金，他四处观望后决定，这次离开就再也不回来了。

For a fellowship and looking around, he decided that this time when he left, he wasn't coming back.

我觉得我已经贡献得足够多了，也牺牲了很多东西。

I think I've contributed more than enough and I've sacrificed many things as well.

所以我说，好吧。

So I said, okay.

是时候去别处开启新篇章了。

Well, it's time for a new beginning elsewhere.

而美国就是那个地方。

And, well, The US was that place.

他是迄今为止最大规模古巴移民潮中的一员。

He was part of the biggest wave of migration out of Cuba yet.

根据一项估算，自2020年以来，已有近300万人离开古巴，占总人口的四分之一。

According to one estimate, nearly 3,000,000 people have left since 2020, a quarter of the population.

现在，当里卡多回去探亲时，他说古巴的富人似乎越来越富了。

And now when Ricardo goes back to visit, he says it seems Cuba's rich are getting richer.

你能在街上看到特斯拉和凯迪拉克。

You see Teslas and Escalades on the streets.

但他表示，古巴的穷人也正变得越来越穷。

But he says Cuba's poor are also getting poorer.

以前在古巴难以想象的事情，我带着悲伤说，我并不为此感到自豪——比如乞丐、在垃圾桶里翻找食物的人，这些现在已经非常普遍了。

Things that were unthinkable in Cuba before, and I say with sorrow, I'm not I'm not proud about those, you know, beggars, people, like, looking for food in trash cans, that's become very common.

垃圾越堆越多。

Trash was piling up.

里卡多说，这就是他2025年最后一次去古巴时看到的样子。

Ricardo says that's the Cuba he saw the last time he was there in 2025.

今年年初，美国逮捕了委内瑞拉总统，并实际上接管了其石油产业。

And then at the start of this year, The US captured the president of Venezuela and essentially took over its oil industry.

因此，古巴从它最好的盟友那里获得的这条生命线被切断了。

So that lifeline Cuba was getting from its best compadre was yanked away.

特朗普政府告诉委内瑞拉：不得再向古巴提供石油，并警告其他可能向古巴出售石油的国家，比如墨西哥，如果这么做，将面临关税制裁。

The Trump administration told Venezuela no more oil for Cuba, and they told other countries that would have sold oil to Cuba, like Mexico, that if they do, they will get tariffed.

然而本周，在数月阻止任何油轮抵达古巴之后，特朗普总统改变了主意，决定允许一艘来自俄罗斯的油轮驶入古巴港口。

Then this week, after several months preventing any oil tanker from reaching Cuba, president Trump changed his mind, decided, yes, he would let a tanker from Russia land on Cuba's shores.

里卡多说，古巴似乎完全受制于美国。

Ricardo says it seems Cuba is at the mercy of The US.

石油禁运暴露了古巴所有方面的脆弱性。

The oil embargo has exposed all the vulnerabilities of of Cuba at once.

美国的外交政策正在切断古巴政府从其盟友那里获得的大部分援助。

US foreign policy is choking off much of the help the Cuban government gets from its allies.

古巴的主要产业旅游业需要游客，而这些游客要么无法、要么不愿前往一个其陈旧的苏联电力系统绝对无法承受美国制裁的国家。

And Cuba's big industry, tourism, requires tourists who either can't or won't visit a country whose antiquated Soviet electrical system definitely cannot survive a U.

美国。

S.

石油禁运。

Oil embargo.

所以你现在正面临两个真正的挑战。

So now you are confronting your two real challenges.

一个是国内功能失调的经济，另一个是距离仅90英里的美国政府。

One is a dysfunctional economy at home and then the U.

美国。

S.

美国政府，距离仅90英里。

Government, 90 miles away.

古巴唯一的出路是与美国进行谈判。

The only way out for Cuba is through a negotiation with The United States.