《金钱星球》对决NBA摆烂难题

这是NPR的星球金钱节目。

This is Planet Money from NPR.

每年冬天即将转为春天时，NBA都会发生一件非常奇怪的事情。

Every year, as winter starts to turn to spring, this very weird thing starts to happen in the NBA.

铁杆球迷开始反对自己最爱的球队。

Diehard fans begin rooting against their favorite teams.

这是有记录的人类历史上，我甚至一点都不生气我们输给了布鲁克林篮网队。

This is the only time in recorded human history where I'm not even the slightest bit mad that we're losing to the Brooklyn Nets.

你可以肯定，对于这些球队来说，每一场失利都意义重大，

You can bet every loss means so much more for these teams,

而且他们完全不加掩饰。

and they're not hiding it at all.

没错。

That's right.

这是摆烂赛季。

It is tanking season.

有人看到这个比分，会怀疑我们是否真的努力过。

Somebody gonna see this score and wonder if we even tried.

不，先生，不是这样的。

No, good sir.

不。

No.

我们确实没有。

We did not.

现在，世界上一些最伟大的运动员正拿着数百万美元的薪水，故意输球。

Right now, some of the greatest athletes in the history of the world are being paid millions of dollars to lose.

所以犹他爵士队根本不在乎掩饰他们在故意输球。

So the Utah Jazz are not even trying to hide the fact that they're tanking.

昨晚对阵魔术队时，他们一度领先了多达17分。

They were up by as much as 17 points last night against the Magic.

威尔·哈迪在第四节把整个首发阵容都换下，换上了一群G联盟的球员，彻底把比赛拱手让给了魔术队。

Will Hardy then in the fourth quarter pulls the entire rotation out and throws in a bunch of g league dudes to completely give that game away back to the Magic.

现在这在NBA里太正常了，如果你是个体育迷，你就会说，是的。

Now this is so normal in the NBA that if you're a sports fan, you're like, yeah.

当然，他们是在故意输球。

Of course, they're losing games on purpose.

联盟给战绩最差的球队提供了获得下赛季NBA选秀前几顺位签的最高概率，因此球队有强烈的动机尽可能表现得差劲。

The league gives the teams with the worst records the best chance of getting one of the top picks in the next NBA draft, so teams have this real incentive to be as bad as possible.

所以，是的，故意输球是理性的。

So, yeah, tanking is rational.

但如果你是这些故意输球球队的球迷，那可就很难受了。

But if you are a fan of one of these tanking teams, it can be rough.

我昨晚看了那场步行者队的比赛，那是我见过的最恶心的事情。

And I watched that Pacers game last night, and it was the most disgusting thing I've ever seen.

就像我说的，这里有点不对劲。

Like I said, something smells fishy here.

那像国王队这样直接让所有人坐板凳的球队呢？

What about teams like the Kings who are flat out benching everybody?

没有利文，没有扎博尼斯，没有威斯布鲁克，一个都没有。

No Levine, no Zabonis, no Westbrook, no no one.

如果你好奇的话，我们会在致谢部分分享我们在节目中使用的所有球迷声音的社交媒体账号。

If you're curious, we will share the social media handles for all the voices of fans we use in our credits.

而且，并不只是球迷有这样的感受。

And it's not just fans who feel this way.

以下是NBA最有权力的人——总裁亚当·西尔弗。

Here is the most powerful man in the NBA, commissioner Adam Silver.

我们今年看到的行为，比近年来的任何时期都要更糟糕吗？

Are we seeing, behavior that is worse this year than we've seen in in recent memory?

我的看法是，是的。

Yes is my view.

亚当·西尔弗还表示，联盟正在考虑所有可能的补救措施来解决摆烂问题。

Adam Silver also said the league is considering every possible remedy to fix tanking.

多年来，人们提出了许多不同的想法，试图寻找更好的制度，以更好地协调各方的激励机制。

There have been lots of different ideas out there over the years looking at whether there's a better system here, to to try to align incentives.

所以，亚当·席尔瓦，你的意思是说你们面临激励问题，需要一些创造性的解决方案？

So, Adam Silver, you are saying you have an incentives problem and you need some creative solutions?

我的意思是，你干脆直接在天上打个巨大的《Planet Money》广告牌好了。

I mean, you might as well shine a giant Planet Money sign up into the sky.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我们明白你的意思了，亚当·席尔瓦。

We got you, Adam Silver.

大家好，欢迎收听《Planet Money》。

Hello, and welcome to Planet Money.

我是基思·罗默。

I'm Keith Romer.

我是埃里卡·贝拉斯。

And I'm Erika Beras.

每一套规则体系都会产生激励机制。

Every system of rules creates incentives.

这适用于CEO的股票期权、温室气体的监管，当然也包括NBA选秀。

This is true whether you're talking about CEO stock options or regulating greenhouse gases or, yes, the NBA draft.

所以，如果你想改变系统内人员的行为，就改变 governing 这个系统的规则。

So if you wanna change the behavior of the people operating within a system, change the rules that govern that system.

今天在节目中，Planet Money通过改革NBA选秀来解决球队故意输球的问题。

Today on the show, Planet Money fixes the NBA's tanking problem by fixing the NBA draft.

我们将探讨三种关于改革选秀制度的激进提案，并采访一位奥运金牌得主和一位世界杯冠军。

We will look at three radical proposals for changing the draft and talk to an Olympic gold medalist and a World Cup champion.

本信息由Ameriprise Financial提供。

This message comes from Ameriprise Financial.

副总裁迪娜·希利分享了她为何认为许多客户会向家人和朋友推荐Ameriprise。

Vice president, Dina Healy, shares why she believes many clients recommend Ameriprise to their family and friends.

因为他们与顾问的互动体验是积极的，帮助他们理解了自己最重要的财务决策。

It's because they've had an experience with an adviser that was positive for them, that helped them understand their most important financial decision.

我们发现，客户通常希望将这种安全感和信心延伸到他们最重要的人身上。

And we see that clients routinely want to extend that sense of security and confidence to the people that matter most to them.

如需更多信息和重要披露，请访问 ameriprise.com/advice。

For more information and important disclosures, visit ameriprise.com/advice.

证券通过 Ameriprise Financial Services LLC 提供，系 FINRA 和 SIPC 成员。

Securities offered by Ameriprise Financial Services LLC, member FINRA and SIPC.

让我们暂时思考一下体育的宏伟之处。

Let us just consider for a moment the majesty of sports.

最顶尖的运动员竭尽全力比赛，将他们所有的努力、训练和天赋都用来对抗对手。

The very best athletes competing as hard as they know how, putting all their effort and training and natural ability to the test against their opponents.

是的。

Yeah.

这个时候，如果你随便打开一场NBA比赛，看到的却不是这样的场景。

This time of year, that's not what you see when you turn on a random NBA

比赛。

game.

不。

No.

确实不是。

It's not.

因为摆烂，现在很多NBA比赛根本不值得看。

Because of tanking, a lot of NBA games are basically not even worth watching right now.

这不仅对球迷不利，对联盟也不利。

It's bad for fans, and it's bad for the league.

为了帮我们思考如何解决这种篮球运动的毒瘤，我们联系了一位对此深有体会的人。

So to help us think through what to do about this pox on the game of basketball, we reached out to someone who lives and breathes this stuff.

你一生中觉得花了多少时间看篮球比赛？

How much time in your life do you think you have spent watching basketball games?

我能直接跳过吗？

Can I just pass?

我真的不想坐下来算这笔账。

I don't I don't I don't wanna actually sit down and do the math.

我的信仰是每晚至少看两场比赛。

So my religion is two games a night at a minimum.

这，我不知道。

It's it's I don't know.

我甚至不敢去估算，我想。

I don't even wanna venture, I guess.

太多了。

It's too much.

我的意思是，我觉得肯定已经有好多年了吧，对吧？

I mean, I think it's it must be years, right, at this point?

这听起来很令人沮丧，但说真的，这很有趣。

I that's a depressing that's a depressing I mean, it's fun.

我爱看篮球，但年头一久，我们的人生也没多少年了。

I love watching basketball, but it years is we only have so many years.

这花掉的时间太多了。

That's a lot of time.

这是播客《Zach Lowe Show》的主持人Zach Lowe，长期担任《体育画报》和ESPN的NBA记者和评论员，现在是The Ringer的成员。

That is Zach Lowe, host of the podcast, The Zach Lowe Show, longtime NBA reporter and commentator for Sports Illustrated and ESPN, and now the ringer.

是的。

Yep.

是我家的重要成员。

Important member of my household.

我丈夫几乎每天都会听Zach Lowe的节目。

My husband listens to Zach Lowe just about every single day.

向Andy和他的粉丝群体致意。

Shout out to Andy and his fandom.

好的。

Okay.

Zach说，整个摆烂问题本质上归结为激励机制。

So Zach says the whole tanking problem basically boils down to incentives.

球队为了在NBA选秀中获得更高的顺位，故意试图输球。

Teams are trying to lose to get a higher slot in the NBA draft.

所以我们先来回顾一下联盟多年来为球队提供的选秀激励机制的历史。

So we are gonna start with kind of a history of the different incentives the league has offered teams in the draft over the years.

在二十世纪六七十年代，NBA选秀制度非常简单。

Back in the nineteen sixties and seventies, the NBA draft system was pretty simple.

球队可以挑选即将从大学毕业的年轻球员加入自己的队伍。

Teams got to pick which young players coming out of college would come and play for them.

为了尽可能保持联盟的竞争平衡，这些选秀权的分配方式是有意设计的。

And to try to keep the league as competitive as possible, those picks were distributed in a very intentional way.

和许多其他联赛一样，联盟决定选秀顺序应大致按球队战绩倒序进行——战绩最差的球队优先选人，战绩最好的球队最后选。

The league decided, as many leagues do, that the draft should more or less go in reverse order with the worst teams picking high and the best teams picking low.

因此，选秀制度的设计初衷就是如此。

And so that's what the draft is designed to do.

每年，西部和东部战绩最差的两支球队会抛硬币决定谁获得第一顺位选秀权。

Every year, the worst team from the Western Conference and the worst team in the Eastern Conference would flip a coin to see who got the number one pick.

之后，选秀权依次分配给战绩第二差的球队、第三差的球队，依此类推。

And from there, draft picks were assigned to the next worst team and then the next worst team and so on.

你可以理解这种倒序选秀的逻辑。

And you can see the logic of a reverse order draft.

给表现差的球队一些希望。

Let's give hope to the bad teams.

也许他们不会永远差下去，因为他们有机会选到即将从大学涌现的下一位巨星。

Maybe they won't stay bad forever because they can get the next great start coming out of college.

但只要这种总体激励结构存在，球队就会以任何对他们有利的方式利用它。

But as long as that general incentive structure exists, teams are going to exploit it in whatever ways are advantageous for them.

这一点在1984年达到了顶峰。

This famously came to a head back in 1984.

那一年的选秀中出现了几位非常出色的球员，球队因此有强烈动机去钻规则的空子。

That year, the draft featured a couple of players that were so good that teams had a big incentive to exploit the rules a little.

是的。

Yeah.

哈基姆·奥拉朱旺和另一位你可能听说过的人——迈克尔·乔丹，他们那年都会参加选秀。

Hakeem Olajuwon and another guy you might have heard of, Michael Jordan, they were going to be in the draft that year.

休斯顿火箭队想，如果我们能得到其中一位球员，这一切都可能改变。

And the Houston Rockets were like, if we got one of those players, this could change everything.

所以也许，你知道，我们今年输掉比赛，以便明年、后年、再后年都能赢。

So maybe, you know, we lose this year so that we can win next year and the year after that and the year after that and the year after that.

为了确保能拿到顶级选秀权，火箭队开始让他们的最佳球员坐板凳，给那些状态下滑的老将大量上场时间。

So to make sure they got a shot at a top pick, the Rockets started sitting their best players, giving worse washed up players big minutes.

他们最终在最后17场比赛中输了14场，而且成功了。

They managed to lose 14 of their last 17 games, And it worked.

他们最终获得了第一顺位选秀权。

They ended up with the first overall pick.

休斯顿火箭队，由老板查理·托马斯和他的女儿特蕾西代表，选择了休斯顿。

The Houston Rockets, who are represented here by owner Charlie Thomas and his daughter Tracy, select Houston.

火箭队得到了他们的明星球员，最终凭借艾柳安赢得了两座NBA总冠军。

The Rockets got their star, and they ended up winning two NBA championships with Elijuan.

1984年。

1984.

这是摆烂历史上重要的一年，因为它开启了NBA球队摆烂与联盟试图阻止摆烂之间长达数十年的猫鼠游戏。

It was an important year in the history of tanking because it launched this decades long game of cat and mouse between NBA teams tanking and the league trying to stop them from tanking.

对联盟来说，球队故意输球是非常糟糕的形象。

For the league, teams intentionally losing games was a terrible look.

为了避免再次出现火箭队摆烂的丑闻，联盟重新制定了选秀规则。

So to try to avoid a repeat of the whole Rockets tanking fiasco, the league remade the rules for the draft.

现在将采用抽签制度。

Now there was going to be a lottery.

所有未能进入季后赛的球队，其名字都将被放入一个大鼓中。

Every team that missed the playoffs would get their name thrown into a big drum.

一旦鼓关闭，就会开始旋转以混合信封。

As soon as the drum is closed, it will be turned to mix the envelopes.

然后他们会抽签决定谁获得前几顺位。

Then they would draw to see who got the top picks.

现在由各参赛球队的代表从鼓中抽取信封。

The envelopes will now be selected from the drum by the representatives of the participating teams.

是否垫底或只是无缘季后赛变得不再重要。

Stopped mattering whether you finished dead last or just missed the playoffs.

联盟在选秀中引入了一些随机性，这种机制一直沿用至今。

The league added some randomness to their draft that is still there today.

这种随机性试图最大化什么？

What's the randomization trying to maximize?

它旨在遏制那种明显、恶劣、彻底的摆烂行为。

It's trying to, discourage abject, obvious, horrible tanking.

它试图消除或降低成为一支仅赢15场、故意垫底的糟糕球队的动机。

It's trying to remove the incentives or decrease the incentives for being, a 15 win team, just a terrible team that's intentionally bottoming out.

这一改变确实有效，至少在一定程度上

And the change worked, at least as far

让摆烂变得不那么有吸引力。

as making tanking less attractive.

但每一套新规则都伴随着新的权衡。

But every new set of rules contains new trade offs.

虽然乐透抽签降低了球队彻底摆烂的动机，但也让那些根本没摆烂、只是 genuinely 糟糕的球队变得更难变好。

And while the lottery lowered the incentives for teams to full on tank, it also made it way harder for some not at all tanking, just genuinely bad teams to ever get better.

现在，这些球队不再能拿到可能让他们重获生机的状元签，有时反而只能拿到第四、第五或第七顺位。

Now, instead of getting a top pick that could have made them relevant again, the worst teams sometimes ended up picking fourth or fifth or seventh.

所以一些糟糕的球队就一直糟糕下去了。

So some bad teams just stayed bad.

多年来，联盟尝试了各种不同的调整。

Over the years, the league has tried all these different tweaks.

1987年，他们规定只有前三个选秀签通过乐透抽签决定。

In 1987, they made it so only the first three picks were determined by a lottery.

然后在1990年，他们调整了乐透规则，让球队越差，获得高顺位签的概率就越高，也就是给糟糕的球队更多希望。

Then in 1990, they waited the lottery so that the worse your team was, the better chance you had of getting a top pick, you know, giving bad teams more hope.

接着在1994年，他们进一步提高了最差球队的中签概率。

Then in 1994, they increased the odds for the worst teams even more.

于是希望更大了。

So even more hope.

1996年，联盟反过来略微降低了某些最差球队的中签概率。

In 1996, they went the other way and decreased the odds a little for some of the worst teams.

此后几十年，联盟一直沿用这一版本，直到2019年，他们又回到了更随机的方向。

And the league stuck with that version of things for a few decades until in 2019, they went back in the direction of randomness.

他们将乐透抽签的名额从三个增加到四个，并大幅拉平了各队的中签概率。

They increased the number of picks in the lottery from three to four, and they flattened the odds again by kind of a lot.

过去，如果你是联盟最差的球队，你有25%的概率拿到状元签。

You used to have a 25% chance of getting the number one pick if you were the worst team in the league.

现在，这个概率降到了14%。

Now it was gonna be just 14%.

这样做的目的是为了 discouraging 球队成为联盟中最差的球队。

The whole point of it was to discourage teams from being the absolute worst teams in the league.

但今年，有几位来自大学的球员被认为可能会非常出色。

But this year, there are a few players coming out of college that people think could be really good.

因此，即使中签概率降低了，许多球队仍认为放弃本赛季剩余比赛、为争取更好的选秀顺位而摆烂是值得的。

So even with those lower odds, a lot of teams have decided that it's still worth it to throw away the rest of the season, to tank for a shot at a better draft pick.

是的

Yeah.

扎克说，球队在NBA中比在其他体育项目中更有动力去故意输球，因为一个顶尖球员的价值实在太高了。

Zach says teams are maybe more motivated to tank in the NBA than in other sports because of just how valuable a single great player can be.

每支球队在场上只有五名球员。

There are only five players on the court at a time for a team.

最好的球员可以在每一次进攻中都拿到球，因此超级巨星在篮球中具有独一无二的价值。

The best players can have the ball on every single possession, and so a superstar is uniquely valuable in basketball.

现在，扎克听到了各种关于如何解决这种故意输球问题的建议。

Now Zach has heard all sorts of ideas about how to fix this tanking problem.

每个人都有自己最喜欢的解决方案。

Everyone has their favorite solution.

我的意思是，收到的邮件、推文和建议数不胜数，每个人都觉得自己的办法是万能钥匙。

I mean, the number of emails and tweets and suggestions, everyone has a fix that is they think is the silver bullet.

他听说过一种建议，就是禁止任何球队连续两年获得前四顺位选秀权，还有一种说法是，如果球队打入了足够深的季后赛，下一年就不能获得顶级选秀签。

He's heard the one about making it so that no team can have a top four draft pick two years in a row, and the one that says if you make it deep enough into the playoffs, you can't get a top pick the following year.

但扎克说，如果你的唯一目标是阻止球队输球以获得更好的选秀签，那有一个相当直接的解决方案。

But Zach says if your only goal is to stop teams from losing games to get a better draft pick, there is a pretty straightforward solution.

我认为你可以彻底消除摆烂行为。

I think you can eradicate tanking.

这根本不需要这些创可贴式的修补，也不需要一层又一层的微小调整，而这些调整可能会在其他地方打开新的漏洞。

It just requires none of these Band Aids, none of these, like, mini fixes on top of mini fixes that might open holes everywhere else.

你只需要切断球队战绩与他们在选秀中的顺位之间的联系。

It requires you have to snap the connection between a team's record and where it picks in the draft.

是的。

Yeah.

如果你的选秀顺位与球队战绩好坏毫无关系，那就没有理由故意输球了。

If your draft pick had nothing to do with how bad your record was, there would be no reason to intentionally lose games.

关于如何切断输球与选秀顺位之间的联系，其中一个更优雅的提议是所谓的‘选秀轮盘’。

One of the more elegant proposals for how to snap that connection between losing and draft picks is something called the draft wheel.

我想我是在2013年第一次了解到这个想法的。

I think I first learned about it in the 2013.

我是在拉斯维加斯的一家酒吧里了解到这个的，就像很多人在拉斯维加斯的酒吧里学到东西一样。

I I learned about it at a bar in Las Vegas as many people learn things at bars in Las Vegas.

我觉得NBA选秀改革可不太可能是人们在拉斯维加斯酒吧里学到的事情。

I feel like NBA draft reforms is is low on the list of things that people learn in bars in Las Vegas.

但在NBA夏季联赛期间就不是了。

Not during NBA Summer League.

NBA夏季联赛期间，NBA整个接管了拉斯维加斯。

NBA Summer League, the NBA takes over Las Vegas.

赛季结束了。

The season's over.

自由球员市场也结束了。

Free agency is over.

选秀也结束了。

The draft is over.

这时候人们才会聊这些话题，因为其他什么事都没有。

This is when people have these kind of conversations because there's nothing else going on.

所以在拉斯维加斯的那家酒吧里，扎克遇到了一位他认识的人，那人是波士顿凯尔特人队管理层的高管，名叫迈克·扎林。

So at that bar there in Vegas, Zach finds himself talking to someone he knows from the front office of the Boston Celtics, an executive named Mike Zarin.

迈克开始向扎克详细解释他的复杂选秀轮盘构想。

And Mike starts explaining to Zach his elaborate draft wheel idea.

这个轮盘有30根辐条，每根代表首轮的一个选秀顺位。

The wheel has 30 spokes, one for each first round selection.

所以有一根辐条对应第一顺位、第六顺位、第十顺位、第二十顺位，等等。

So there's a spoke for pick one, pick six, pick 10, pick 20, whatever.

在三十年的时间里，你只需像钟表指针一样按固定顺序依次轮转，遍历全部30个顺位。

And then over thirty years, you just cycle like you're ticking around the clock kind of through all 30 picks in a predetermined order.

迈克·扎林的选秀轮盘将是我们提出的第一个解决NBA摆烂问题的方案。

And Mike Zarin's draft wheel is gonna be the first of our proposals for how to fix tanking in the NBA.

想象一下一个轮盘。

So imagine a wheel.

NBA的30支球队各自被分配到轮盘的30根辐条中的一根上。

All 30 teams in the NBA get assigned to one of the 30 spokes of the wheel.

然后每年，他们会沿着轮子向前移动一个 spoke。

And then each year, they advance one spoke around the wheel.

这些 spoke 并不是按第一顺位、第二顺位、第三顺位排列的。

The spokes don't go first pick, second pick, third pick.

相反，顺序看起来有点随机。

Instead, the order looks kinda random.

这些年来有过几个版本的轮子，但在第一个版本中，第一顺位之后，下一个 spoke 是第三十顺位，然后是第十九顺位、第十八顺位、第七顺位、第六顺位。

There were a few versions of the wheel over the years, but in the first version, after pick number one, the next spoke was the thirtieth pick, then the nineteenth, the eighteenth, the seventh, the sixth.

这个想法非常简单。

The idea was very simple.

也就是说，你今年的战绩如何根本无关紧要。

Like, it doesn't matter what your record is in this particular year.

你只需要按照轮子指定的顺位选人，因此无论你今年表现好坏，都没有任何好处，因为轮子已经为你决定了顺位。

You pick where the wheel says you pick, and so there's no benefit to you being bad in this particular year or good in this particular year because the the wheel sets the order for you.

从数学上讲，这个轮子的设计堪称完美。

And mathematically, the design of the wheel is a thing of beauty.

每五年，你都能保证获得一个前六顺位和一个第七到第十二顺位的选秀权。

Every five years, you're guaranteed one top six pick and one pick seven through 12.

希望总是在某个地方可见，所以你不可能连续五次抽到像27、22、29、30这样的低顺位。

Hope was always at least somewhere on the horizon, so it's not like you'd ever go through a series of five picks that were, like, 27, 22, 29, 30.

三十年后，每支球队都会经历全部30个顺位，然后开始新一轮的轮盘循环。

After thirty years, every team will have moved through all 30 picks, and then they start another trip around the wheel.

扎克说，联盟确实讨论过选秀轮盘，但许多球队因为几个根本性原因强烈反对。

Zach says the league did talk about the draft wheel some, and a lot of teams were really resistant for a couple of pretty fundamental reasons.

第一点是，糟糕的球队会不会被长期困在低迷状态？

Number one is just a general principle of are bad teams going to get trapped into badness for longer?

比如，如果我的球队表现极差，而轮盘接下来的三个顺位是11、29和16，作为这支球队的球迷，我是不是就得整整三年都放弃希望，直到轮盘把我转到别的位置？

Like, if I if my team just stinks and the next three picks on the wheel are eleven, twenty nine, and 16, and I'm a fan of that team, am I just, like, checking out for three years until the wheel spits me out somewhere else?

在现行制度下，如果你的球队表现差，就能在选秀中立即获得帮助。

Under the current system, if you're bad, you get help right away in the draft.

但有了选秀轮盘，无论你的球队有多烂，你都只能拿到轮盘下一个指向的顺位。

But with the draft wheel, no matter how crappy your team is, you are still just gonna get whatever pick the draft wheel says is on the next poke.

与此相关的是，总有一部分小市场球队的老板和管理层会说：嘿。

And connected to that, there's always some contingent of small market owners, front office executives who will say, hey.

等等。

Wait a second.

我们在自由球员市场上输给了那些光鲜的市场。

We lose to the glamorous markets in free agency.

没有球员会选择我们所在的中西部城市X，而不是洛杉矶、纽约或迈阿密。

No player is gonna pick us in in Midwest City x over Los Angeles or New York or Miami.

因此，我们获得超级巨星球员最好也最稳妥的方式，就是在正确的选秀年份表现糟糕，并在乐透抽签中运气好。

And so our best and most secure vehicle to getting a superstar player is being bad in the right draft and getting lucky in the lottery.

如果你们拿走这一点，会不会加剧大市场球队和小市场球队之间的差距？

And if you take that away from us, is it going to increase the disparity between big market teams and small market teams?

但这些正是主要的两点争议。

But it is those are the two main sort of quibbles that come up.

太多小市场球队担心，选秀轮盘会剥夺表现糟糕球队的希望，这也是为什么选秀轮盘从未真正获得实质性推进的原因之一。

Too many of these smaller market teams were worried that the draft wheel would take too much hope away from bad teams, and that's partly why the wheel never really got serious traction.

是的

Yeah.

像这样的重大变革，不是由联盟自上而下决定的。

Big changes like this, they are not done top down by the league.

这需要全部30支球队投票，并且必须有四分之三的球队同意。

It would take a vote of all 30 teams and would require three fourths of the teams to say yes.

因此，要让这个方案成为现实，需要很多球队改变主意。

So a lot of teams would need to change their minds for this to become a reality.

所以，为了解决NBA摆烂问题，我们的下一个方案是寻找一种既能限制摆烂，又不完全剥夺球队希望的方案。

So for our next option for fixing the NBA's tanking problem, we went looking for a plan that could limit tanking without completely doing away with the whole hope element of things.

而我们在女子冰球中找到了这样的方案。

And we found it in women's hockey.

我通常不会这样开始采访，但今天既然有机会，我就要抓住它。

I don't always get to start interviews this way, and so I'm gonna take the opportunity today because I have it.

你拿过多少枚奥运奖牌？

How many Olympic medals do you have?

我拥有五枚奥运奖牌，包括四枚金牌和一枚银牌。

I have five Olympic medals, four Olympic gold medals, and one Olympic silver medal.

这是冰球名人堂成员杰娜·赫福德，她可能是我们节目历史上最伟大的运动员。

That is Hockey Hall of Famer Jayna Hefford, arguably the greatest athlete we've ever had on the show.

第二伟大的。

Second greatest.

非常感谢。

Thank you very much.

对你来说，你是第二伟大的。

Second greatest to you.

杰娜在五届不同的奥运会上赢得了这五枚奖牌，是加拿大女子冰球队的明星之一。

Jayna won her five medals across five different Olympics as one of the stars of the Canadian women's hockey team.

如今，杰娜负责PWHL（职业女子冰球联盟）的冰球运营工作。

These days, Jayna is in charge of hockey operations for the PWHL, the Professional Women's Hockey League.

首先，PWHL成立于2024年。

The PWHL, first of all, was established in 2024.

嗯，2023年成立，但2024年才正式开赛。

Well, established in 2023, but dropped the puck in 2024.

所以这仍然是一个相当年轻的联盟。

So still a fairly young league.

杰娜帮助创立了这个联盟，她说作为一个新兴联盟的好处是，他们有能力进行尝试，不拘泥于传统做法。

Jayna helped launch the league, and she says one of the benefits of being a young league was that they had the ability to experiment, to not just do things the way they've always been done.

在筹建整个联盟的过程中，我们实际上形成了一种文化与心态，那就是要打破常规。

As we were setting up the entire league, really, we had, I guess, a culture, a mindset that said, you know, we wanna think outside the box.

我们要富有创意。

We wanna be creative.

我们要与众不同。

We wanna do things differently.

他们做得不同的一件事就是选秀。

One of the things they did differently was their draft.

是的。

Yeah.

贾娜和她的同事们意识到，仅仅将最好的选秀签给予输球最多的球队，正在伤害其他联盟，尤其是对球迷而言，这种消极比赛的现象非常严重。

Jayna and her colleagues, they could see how just giving the best draft picks to the teams that lost the most games was hurting other leagues, how bad tanking was, especially for fans.

有很多人可能每年只能看一场NHL、NBA或NFL的比赛。

There's many people that maybe only get to one NHL or NBA or NFL game a year.

如果你每年只能带孩子去看一次比赛，却发现球队没有派出最强阵容上场，无论是冰上、球场还是场地，我认为这对球迷来说都是非常难以接受的。

And if if you get to bring your child there once a year and then see a team that isn't putting their best team on the ice, on the court, on the field, you know, I I think that's a really tough place to be as a fan.

为了限制消极比赛，同时仍给表现不佳的球队一些希望，PWHL采纳了这个已经流传了十多年的想法，称为‘黄金计划’。

So to try to limit tanking but still give bad teams some hope, the PWHL adopted this idea that had been floating around for over a decade, something called the gold plan.

黄金计划是由一位名叫亚当·戈尔德的先生提出的。

So the gold plan was developed by a gentleman by the name of Adam Gold.

它的作用是确保球队不会消极比赛，不会故意派出较弱的球员来输球，以争取第一顺位选秀权。

And what what it does is it ensures that there is no tanking with teams, that they don't just play lesser players to try to earn or get their way to the first draft pick by losing.

一旦球队被淘汰出季后赛，实际上必须是表现最好的球队才能获得第一顺位选秀权。

Once you're eliminated from playoffs, you actually have to be the highest performing team to get the first overall pick.

是的。

Yeah.

黄金计划在传统的倒序选秀基础上增加了一个巧妙的调整。

The gold plan takes the standard reverse order draft and adds this twist.

以现在的PWHL为例，目前联盟中战绩最差的两支球队是西雅图激流队和温哥华金眼队。

So to take the PWHL right now as an example, currently, the two teams with the worst records in the league are the Seattle Torrent and the Vancouver Golden Eyes.

假设温哥华队率先在数学上无缘季后赛。

Let's say Vancouver gets mathematically eliminated from the playoffs first.

从那天起，他们每赢一场球，反而对自己越有利。

From that day forward, every game they win works for them instead of against them.

然后，几周后，西雅图队也无缘季后赛。

Then, say a couple weeks later, Seattle gets eliminated.

现在，西雅图队也被激励着全力以赴赢球，以与温哥华队以及其他任何被淘汰的球队竞争。

Now Seattle is also incentivized to try as hard as they can to win games to compete with Vancouver and whoever else might get eliminated from playoff contention.

在被淘汰后累积积分最多的球队，将获得最高的选秀顺位。

Whichever team ends up racking up the most points after they're eliminated from the playoffs, that team gets the highest pick.

对于早早被淘汰球队的球迷来说，他们有了继续到场观赛、为球队加油的理由，因为球队赢球、积累积分，就能争取到最高的选秀签位。

For the fans of a team that gets eliminated early, they have reason to continue to show up and to continue to cheer for their team, to win games and earn points so that they can earn the top draft pick.

想象一下，赛季最后一场比赛，温哥华和西雅图直接对决。

Like, imagine that it comes down to the very last game of the season, and Vancouver and Seattle are playing head to head.

这两支球队这个赛季都表现得很糟糕。

Both teams, they've had this rough year.

他们输了很多场比赛。

They've lost a lot of games.

但现在他们的球迷都疯狂了，因为他们知道，如果自己的球队赢了，就能在明年的选秀中获得更高的顺位。

But now their fans are going wild because they know if their team wins, they will get the better pick in the next year's draft.

这简直太棒了，堪称体育界的精彩戏剧。

Like, that would be amazing sports theater.

但任何新制度都伴随着新的权衡。

But every new system comes with new trade offs.

没错。

Sure.

黄金计划增强了表现糟糕球队继续努力的动力，但杰娜也承认，这可能会限制他们变好的机会。

The goal plan increases a bad team's incentives to keep trying hard, but Jayna acknowledges it could also limit their chances to get better.

你知道吗，如果非要说一个缺点，我觉得是，如果一支球队很早就被淘汰了，却还是没能拿到第一顺位选秀权，那对他们来说，没有顶尖年轻球员，继续提升就会很困难。

You know, if I had to see one downside, I think it would be that, you know, if you did have a team that got eliminated very early and they still didn't get the number one draft pick, it it would be challenging for them, you know, to continue to get better without top young talent.

对。

Right.

如果一支球队一直表现极其糟糕，糟糕到即使有了这个新激励机制也赢不了比赛，那确实如此。

If a team is just perpetually really, really bad, and they're so bad that they can't even win with this new incentive, then Right.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Right.

目前，PWHL还处于早期阶段。

It's still early days for the p w h l.

联盟正在陆续增加球队。

The league is in the process of adding teams.

所以，这是目标计划可能首次对选秀顺位产生重大影响的第一年。

So this is the first year that the goal plan might really shake up the draft order in a dramatic way.

但杰娜非常有信心，目标计划的优势将超过任何可能的缺点。

But Jayna is pretty confident that the pros of the goal plan are going to outweigh any possible cons.

那么这个计划在NBA适用吗？

So would it work in the NBA?

显然，这并不是完全可比的。

Well, it's obviously not apples to apples.

首先，NBA涉及的资金要多得多。

For one thing, there's a lot more money at stake in the NBA.

一支球队如果能选到下一个勒布朗·詹姆斯，其价值可能高达十亿美元。

It can be worth potentially as much as a billion dollars for a team to be able to draft the next LeBron James.

而目前促使NBA球队故意输球的同样那种功利主义心态，依然会存在。

And the same bottom line cynicism that leads NBA teams to tank now, that would still be there.

是的。

Yeah.

如果球队想在目标计划下故意输球，他们依然可以这么做。

If teams wanted to tank under the goal plan, they still could.

他们只需要在赛季初摆烂，一旦被淘汰出季后赛就重新发力。

They just have to tank at the beginning of the season, then turn it on once they're eliminated from the playoffs.

不过对我来说，我还是有点喜欢黄金计划，因为它就像一个挑战。

For me, though, I, like, still kind of like the gold plan because it's like a dare.

对吧？

Right?

NBA球队真的愿意如此 cynical，故意输掉赛季的前20或30场比赛吗？

Would NBA teams actually be willing to be that cynical and just intentionally lose their first 20 or 30 games of a season?

不。

No.

我觉得大部分情况下不会，但很难确定。

I kind of think mostly no, but it's hard to say.

不。

No.

所以，如果NBA管理层真的会堕落到这种地步，我们将考虑最后一个方案来彻底消除摆烂。

So in the event that NBA front offices really might sink that low, we're going to consider one final plan for how to get rid of tanking.

我们称之为米尔顿·弗里德曼方案。

Let's call it the Milton Friedman approach.

这个方案目前已经在另一个美国体育联盟中实际使用了。

And this plan is already being used right now in a different US sports league.

广告结束后再讲。

That's after the break.

好的。

Okay.

如何解决NBA的摆烂问题？

How to fix the NBA's tanking problem?

你可以采用选秀轮盘这样的方式，彻底切断输球与高顺位选秀权之间的联系。

Well, you could do something like the draft wheel and just completely break the connection between losing and getting a high draft pick.

但这样一来，你可能会面临弱队多年持续低迷的风险。

But then you're risking bad teams just staying bad for years and years and years.

或者你可以采用黄金方案，激励球队即使在被淘汰后仍继续赢球。

Or you could use the gold plan, incentivize teams to keep winning games even after they've been eliminated from the playoffs.

但正如我们所说，球队可能仍然愿意钻系统的漏洞。

But like we said, teams might still be willing to game the system.

因此，对于我们第三也是最后一个提议，我们想更进一步，更激进一些，并请来了另一位重磅人物。

So for our third and final proposal, we wanted to go a little bigger, a little more radical, and we brought in another big shot.

让我们从这个角度开始。

Let's start this way.

你希望别人怎么介绍你？

How do you like to be introduced?

世界杯冠军、《女子足球》主编萨姆·梅威斯？

World Cup champion Sam Mewis, editor in chief of the women's game Sam Mewis?

哇哦。

Wow.

最好是两个都算。

Both, ideally.

如果你家对美国女足的关注不如我家那么狂热，那我来介绍一下：萨姆·梅威斯，传奇中场球员、前职业足球运动员，如今是《女子足球》频道的播客主持人，专门讲述女子足球的各类话题。

In case your household is a less religious follower of the US women's national team than mine is, Sam Mewis, legendary midfielder, former professional soccer player, and now host of a gajillion podcast about women's soccer for the women's game.

在她职业生涯的大部分时间里，萨姆一直在国家女子足球联赛（NWSL）效力。

For most of her professional career, Sam played in the NWSL, the National Women's Soccer League.

而在NWSL中，完全不存在故意输球的情况，因为2024年他们决定彻底取消选秀制度。

And in the NWSL, there is no tanking at all because in 2024, they decided to get rid of their draft entirely.

想要加入联赛的球员可以直接与感兴趣的球队进行沟通，如果对方也有意，双方就可以作为个体独立谈判合同。

Players who wanna enter the league can just enter into conversations with teams that they're interested in that are interested in them back, and they can negotiate a contract just as individuals, kind of on their own accord.

如果每支球队都想签下同一位年轻天才，她们就必须在公开市场上竞争，通过提高薪资或提供最佳的发展环境来竞相争取她。

Now if every team wants to sign the same young phenom, they have to compete for her on the open market, try to outbid each other on salary or who can provide the best place to develop as a player.

如今，俱乐部必须在设施、教练、环境、文化以及球迷氛围等方面竞争，争取成为最吸引人的选择。

Now the clubs are competing to have the best facilities, the best coach, the best environment, the best culture, the best fans.

他们必须确保自己的球队环境对这些年轻球员来说是一个有吸引力的去处。

They have to make sure that their their team situation is an appealing place for these young players to go play.

NWSL设有薪资上限，因此并非完全自由市场的无序状态。

There is a salary cap in the NWSL, so it's not just full on free market anarchy.

但没有了选秀制度，球队必须更精确地评估一名年轻球员对自身的价值，然后支付相应的薪酬。

But without a draft, teams have to decide way more precisely how much a young player is worth to them and then pay them.

有趣的是，萨姆表示，她认为取消选秀的主要动机其实并不是为了遏制故意输球。

Interestingly, Sam says she thinks the primary motivation for eliminating the draft was not actually trying to fight tanking.

相反，她说，NWSL 当时试图解决两个相当独特的问题。

Instead, she says the NWSL was trying to deal with two pretty idiosyncratic problems.

第一个问题是，在某个时候，NWSL 遇到了竞争对手。

The first problem was that at a certain point, the NWSL got some competition.

在英国，女子超级联赛（WSL）开始组建实力强劲的球队，这些球队愿意为顶级球员支付高额薪水。

In The UK, the WSL, the women's super league, started bringing together really strong teams who were willing to pay top dollar for elite players.

你可以为切尔西、曼城、曼联或阿森纳这样的球队效力。

You could play for a team like Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United, Arsenal.

那些不喜欢自己被选中球队的顶级球员可以直接去海外打球。

Top players who didn't like where they were drafted could just go play overseas.

第二个问题是，和许多足球联赛一样，NWSL 允许球队签下一些非常年轻的球员。

The second problem, the NWSL, like a lot of soccer leagues, allowed teams to sign some pretty young players.

但联盟不希望出现这样的情况：一个16岁的女孩因为被远在千里之外的球队选中，就必须搬离家乡。

But the league didn't want a situation where a 16 year old had to move thousands of miles because she got drafted by a team across the country.

因此，18岁以下的球员被豁免于选秀，这又带来了另一个问题。

So players under the age of 18 were exempted from the draft, and that created another problem.

最优秀的年轻天才球员跳过了选秀，转而选择那些环境优越、可能薪酬较高、非常适合青少年打球的球队，而不是去上大学。

The really great youngest talent was skipping the draft and where they were choosing teams that have great environments, probably a good amount of money, and were really good places for a teenager to go play instead of going to college.

所以，NWSL取消选秀的原因有很多，但完全与故意输球无关。

So the NWSL got rid of their draft for a bunch of reasons that had nothing at all to do with tanking.

但不难看出，没有选秀会如何改变球队的激励机制。

But it's not hard to see how not having a draft changes the incentives for teams.

是的。

Yeah.

没有选秀，球队输掉更多比赛就没有任何好处。

Without a draft, there is precisely zero reward for a team losing more games.

我们已经进入这个实验的第一年。

We're a year into this experiment.

你觉得它进行得怎么样？

How how do you think it's working out?

非常有趣。

Super interesting.

显然，一年的数据并不多。

Obviously, one year is not a ton of data.

我绝对不认为这是个问题。

I definitely don't think it was a problem.

我认为，就个人经验和感受而言，新秀们表现得非常好。

I think that, you know, just anecdotally and feelings wise, the rookies did great.

萨姆表示，即使没有选秀，小市场球队仍能组建强大的队伍。

And Sam says even without a draft, small market franchises could still build strong teams.

小市场球队仍然有机会为球员营造一个有吸引力的环境，即使他们无法提供最高薪酬。

There is still this opportunity for smaller market teams to carve out an environment for their players that is appealing even if they aren't paying top dollar.

俱乐部环境中其他一些真正重要的因素，仍能让这些小市场球队取得成功。

Having other things as a part of your club environment that are really, really important to you could still allow these smaller market teams to be successful.

但她也意识到，没有选秀制度，资金更雄厚的老板可能年复一年地组建出超级强队。

But she also recognizes that with no draft, owners with deeper pockets might be able to build powerhouse teams year after year after year.

我认为，一般来说，最富有、最敬业、最投入的老板会获胜，前四名球队可能会继续变得更强。

I think generally, the wealthiest owners who are the most dedicated and the most committed are gonna win, and the top four teams are probably gonna keep getting better.

不过，到目前为止，我们一直从两个基本角度来探讨选秀和摆烂这个问题。

This whole time, though, we've been approaching this problem of drafts and tanking from basically two perspectives.

一方面是从联盟和球迷的角度，另一方面则是从球队自身角度。

On the one hand, the leagues and the fans, and on the other hand, the teams themselves.

但萨姆说，也值得从第三个角度——球员的角度——来思考所有这些体系是如何运作的。

But Sam says it's also worth thinking about how all of these systems work from a third perspective, the players.

在这个联盟中，让球员对去向有更多发言权之所以特别重要，有好几个原因。

There are several reasons why it was specifically important in this league to have players have more of a say where they get to go.

其中一部分是，联盟历史上曾存在虐待行为，或者不同州对女性权利的法律不同，对LGBTQ+群体的友好程度也不同。

Part of that is, like, a history of abuse in the league or, you know, different states have different laws about women's rights and different levels of friendliness towards LGBTQ plus people.

我也倾向于认为，赋予球员自主权，把他们视为有权利决定去向的普通人，能带来更好的表现、更高的球迷参与度以及更良好的俱乐部关系。

I also like to think that player autonomy and seeing these players as, like, human beings who have a say in where they're going leads to better performance, better engagement with fans, better relationship with the club.

我认为，这就是NWSL取消选秀制度所要传达的教训。

That, I think, is the lesson to take from the NWSL eliminating the draft.