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这是NPR的Planet Money节目。
This is Planet Money from NPR.
好的，卡拉。
Okay, Kara.
你感觉怎么样？
How do you feel?
你看到了吗？
You you saw?
是的。
Yes.
我看了新闻，说实话，我从未想过这一天会到来。
I saw the news, and I I never thought this day would come, honestly.
难道最高法院真的会对此作出裁决吗？
It's like, was the supreme court ever gonna rule on it?
我的意思是，我们会一直这样处于这种类似炼狱的状态吗？
Like, you know, were we gonna be in this kind of, like, purgatory forever?
但它真的来了，所以我非常高兴。
But it has come, so I'm so happy.
这是卡拉·戴尔。
This is Cara Dyer.
她是一位美国的小企业主。
She is a small business owner in The US.
而重大新闻是，美国最高法院裁定，特朗普总统去年年初实施的广泛关税是
And the big news, the US Supreme Court has said that president Trump's giant sweeping tariffs that he imposed early last year are
非法的。
illegal.
结束了。
Dunzo.
这是个重大消息。
This is huge news.
我们谈论的是他对来自全球几乎所有国家的产品征收的关税，每个国家的关税税率都不同。
We are talking about his tariffs on products from all over the world, almost every single country, a different percentage tariff on each of them.
这些税率在过去一年多里反复上下波动。
And those percentages, they've gone up and down and up and down for more than a year.
但从一开始，就有人对特朗普总统提起诉讼。
But from early on, there were lawsuits against president Trump.
各州、公司和个人表示，这些关税是不合法的。
States and companies and individuals saying that these tariffs, they are not legal.
现在，许多企业和像卡娜这样的人开始想，也许他们能拿回一部分花在这些关税上的钱。
And now a lot of businesses and people like Cara, they're thinking maybe they could get some of the money they spent on those tariffs back.
好的。
Okay.
等等。
Wait.
所以你现在打算怎么办？
So so what do you do now?
嗯，我保留了详细的记录，而且
Well, I've kept meticulous records, and
你有吗？
Did
你有吗？
you?
我会的。
I will
我会申请的。
be asking for yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
我申请了。
I did.
每一个小额费用
Just Every little fee
和关税，是的。
and tariff Yes.
在我们的关税上。
At our tariff.
当然。
Absolutely.
当然。
Absolutely.
所以，好吧。
So, like, okay.
现在他们裁定这是非法的。
Now they've ruled that it's illegal.
现在我们需要采取一些行动，把这些退款退还给企业。
Now we need to take some action and get those refunds back into the hands of of businesses.
到目前为止，美国在这些现已非法的关税下已征收了超过1000亿美元。
So far, The US has collected more than a $100,000,000,000 under these now illegal tariffs.
这是一笔很大的退款金额。
That's a lot of refunds to give
回来。
back.
对。
Right.
是的。
Yes.
你怎么知道该怎么做？
How do you how do you know what to do?
该怎么着手？
How to go about it?
我不知道。
I don't.
好。
Yeah.
但现在他们必须开始制定一个流程，来处理这些退款。
But now is when they would have to, like, start, and figure out a process to get get those refunds going.
所以我也希望他们会，你知道的，让这件事发生。
So I'm also hopeful that they'll you know, that that will happen.
他们会给你非常明确的指导，告诉你如何
That they will give you very clear guidance on how
拿回你的钱，克拉拉？
to get your money back, Clara?
是的。
Yeah.
可能需要你自己稍微费点劲去查找一下
Might entail a little digging on your
方面。
part.
对。
Yes.
如果我有
If I had
去猜。
to guess.
你好，欢迎收听《星球金钱》。
Hello, and welcome to Planet Money.
我是郭杰。
I'm Jeff Guo.
我是莎拉·冈萨雷斯。
And I'm Sarah Gonzalez.
我是玛丽·奇尔兹。
And I'm Mary Childs.
大约一年前，特朗普政府试图利用一项并非为关税设计的法律，实施了近一个世纪以来最大、最具破坏性的关税。
About a year ago, the Trump administration tried to use a law that was not designed for tariffs to impose the biggest, most disruptive tariffs we've seen in about a century.
今天早上，最高法院回绝了这一做法。
This morning, the Supreme Court came back and said, no.
你不能用这项法律来征收关税。
You can't use that law to impose tariffs.
今天在节目中，为什么这些关税是非法的？
Today on the show, why are the tariffs illegal?
这对企业或我们其他人意味着什么？
And what does this mean for businesses or Cara for the rest of us?
我们会拿到退款吗？
Are any of us gonna get refunds?
是的。
Yeah.
此外，这对特朗普政府的整个关税政策意味着什么？
And also, what does this mean for the Trump administration's whole tariff policy?
你今天刚刚宣布的这个10%的新关税是怎么回事？
And what's up with this new 10% tariff you just announced today?
此外，关税退款的市场已经蓬勃发展。
Also, a market for tariff refunds is already booming.
好的。
Alright.
首先，第一件事。
First things first.
最高法院今天到底说了什么？
What did the Supreme Court actually say today?
为此，我们联系了乔治城大学法学院的凯瑟琳·克劳森教授，她是关税法方面的专家。
For that, we called up Georgetown Law professor Kathleen Clausen, who is an expert on the law of tariffs.
当特朗普的大规模新关税首次在法院受到挑战时，我们就曾请她上过节目。
We had her on the show back when Trump's big new tariffs were first getting challenged in the courts.
正是她曾向我们解释过，在《星球金钱》节目中，特朗普基本上是依据一项此前从未有总统使用过的法律来设立这些大规模新关税的。
She was the one who had explained to us on Planet Money that basically Trump created these big new tariffs under a law that no president had ever used before to create tariffs.
这项法律叫做AIIPA。
That law is called AIIPA.
它的全称是《国际紧急经济权力法》。
It stands for the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
当我们第一次采访她时，凯瑟琳是这么告诉我们的。
And back when we first talked to her, here's what Kathleen told us.
我们做贸易的律师并不把IEPA当作一部贸易法。
We trade lawyers don't think of IEPA as a trade law.
这并不是我在贸易课上讲的内容。
That this is not something that I teach in my trade class.
它确实存在。
It's there.
但它并不在我们思考美国经济中关税实施方式的优先清单上。
But it's not on the shortlist for how we think about imposition of tariffs in The US economy.
而今天，最高法院告诉我们，他们对IEPA以及特朗普如何使用它有何看法。
And today, the Supreme Court told us what they think about IEPA and how Trump has been using it.
实际上，大法官们对IEPA有很多看法。
Actually, the justices had a lot of thoughts about IEPA.
有多份意见书。
There are multiple opinions.
整个文件长达170页。
The whole thing is a 170 pages.
我们知道会很长，但170页还真是够惊人的。
We knew it was gonna be long, but a 170 pages really is something.
是的。
Yeah.
所以这个判决一出来，就重重地落在了你的桌上。
So this decision, it kinda landed on your desk with a with a thump.
确实是个重磅消息。
It's a it's a real thump.
对。
Yeah.
我本来想给你看看，我打印出来了，但为了节约纸张，我用了双面打印，每页两面。
I I was gonna show you I had printed it, but I printed it double sided and two pages per sheet just to save the paper.
凯瑟琳说，这170页的核心要点其实可以浓缩为几处关键内容，法院只是试图解释法律的字面意思。
Kathleen says the takeaway from all those 170 pages really boils down to just a few key parts where the court is trying to just interpret the literal words of the law.
对。
Yeah.
你看，在IEPA中，并没有明确说总统可以征收关税。
You see, in IEPA, it doesn't literally say the president can impose tariffs.
它说的是更模糊的内容。
It says something much more vague.
它说总统可以‘监管’……‘进口’，比如商品的进口。
It says the president may, quote, regulate, dot dot dot, importation, like the importation of goods.
这只是一个简单的问题：IEPA这部法律是否允许总统基于这些措辞征收关税？
It was simply a question of does the statute, IEPA, allow the president to impose a tariff on the basis of those words?
今天，我们得到了答案。
Today, got the answer.
首席大法官说，这些措辞无法承载如此重大的含义。
The chief justice says those words cannot bear such weight.
哦。
Oh.
这些措辞无法承载如此重大的含义。
Those words cannot bear such weight.
这就是关键短语。
That's the key phrase.
那是不是一个‘麦克风掉落’的瞬间？
Was that like a mic drop moment?
我可以想象首席大法官做出‘麦克风掉落’的动作。
I can imagine this the chief justice doing a mic drop.
我认为他今天并没有这么做。
I don't think he did today.
我不在场，但若他真做了‘麦克风掉落’，我会很惊讶。
I wasn't in the room, but I'd be surprised if he did the mic drop.
但他本可以这么做。
But he could've.
他本可以这么做。
He could've.
基本上，这些是最高法院今天所说的最重要的字句。
Basically, those are the most important words the Supreme Court said today.
它指出，IEPA中的这些词语规范的是……进口行为。
It said, those words in IEPA regulate dot dot dot importation.
它们并不意味着总统可以对全球各国实施大规模全面的关税。
They do not mean that the president can create giant sweeping across the board tariffs on countries around the world.
法院表示，法律的含义并非如此。
That is not what the law means, the court said.
凯瑟琳说，这一点非常非常明确。
Kathleen says it is very very clear.
这里没有任何歧义。
No ambiguity here.
她说，这些特定的关税是非法的，到此为止。
These particular tariffs, she says, are illegal over and out.
那么让我问你一个显而易见的问题：我们当中有人能拿回钱吗？
So let me ask you the obvious question, which is, are any of us gonna get our money back?
如果你真打算这么想的话，我的朋友，你还有很长的路要走。
I you got a long a long road to hoe there, my friend, if that's what you're you're going for.
不。
No.
听好了。
Look.
最高法院今天根本没有提到退款的事。
The Supreme Court today has said nothing about refunds.
我们没有任何指导说明这是否会以及如何发生。
We don't have any guidance on how or if that's going to happen.
所以你的意思是，我真得去咨询一位海关律师了。
So it sounds like what you're saying is I really gotta talk to a customs lawyer.
这总是个好建议。
Always good advice.
碰巧的是，我们确实有一位海关律师可以随时联系。
And as it happens, we do happen to have a customs lawyer on speed dial.
确实有。
We sure do.
莫琳·索森。
Maureen Thorson.
我们就说今天是她的日子吧。
And let's just say today is kinda like her day.
哦，是的。
Oh, yeah.
我花了二十五年时间专心研究这些东西，现在我知道的比任何人想听的都要多。
I've spent twenty five years doing nothing but nerding out on this stuff, and now I know way more than anybody ever wanted to know.
莫琳是一名国际贸易律师。
Marine is an international trade lawyer.
她是威利·雷恩律师事务所的合伙人，专长于海关法。
She's a partner at Wiley Rain who specializes in customs law.
我们想问问莫琳，当然可以。
And we wanted to ask Maureen, yeah, sure.
公司们将如何尝试申请退还他们为进口到我们这里用于销售的商品所支付的所有关税？
How are companies gonna try to get refunds for all the tariffs they paid on the goods they've imported to, you know, sell to us?
但更重要的是，像我和莎拉这样的普通消费者怎么办？
And more importantly though, what about regular customers like me and Sarah?
是的。
Yeah.
过去一年多来，我们一直间接或直接为各种商品支付关税。
We've been paying tariffs indirectly, directly on all kinds of things for over a year.
蓝莓、连衣裙、玩具。
Blueberries, dresses, toys.
我从蒂穆买的那些灯。
Those lamps I got off Timu.
没错。
There you go.
那又怎么样呢？
So like, what?
我们会拿回这笔钱吗？
Are we gonna get that money back?
正如你所想象的，今天向Marine提问的不只是我们这些人。
And as you can imagine, we are not the only ones bombarding Marine with questions on this day.
我觉得今天我的收件箱就像一罐花生脆糖，蛇不停地冒出来。
I feel like the snakes just keep popping out of the peanut brittle can that is my inbox today.
那么，人们都在问你些什么问题呢？
And and what are the questions that people are asking you?
好吧。
Well okay.
接下来会发生什么？
What happens next?
我能拿到退款吗？
Can I get a refund?
我什么时候能拿到退款？
When can I get a refund?
我该怎么申请退款？
How do I get a refund?
维琳说，如果你要极度简化这个非常复杂的海关法律世界，理论上，公司获取已支付关税退款的方式基本上有三种。
Vireen says if you were to vastly oversimplify this very complicated world of customs law, There are basically, let's say, three ways that companies could, in theory, get refunds on the tariffs they paid.
那些现在被认定为非法的关税。
The tariffs that are now deemed illegal.
所以第一种方式，事实上，海关已经有一个流程可以退还你的关税。
So option number one, turns out customs actually already has a process to get refunds on your tariffs.
因为你知道，美国多年来一直征收各种关税，总有人可能高估了自己应缴纳的关税金额。
Because, you know, The US has had lots of tariffs over the years, and there've always been people who have maybe over calculated how much they owe in tariffs.
所以公司可以去找海关说：
So companies can go to customs and say Like,
你好。
hi.
不好意思。
Excuse me.
我能申请退还我的关税吗？
Can I get a refund on my tariffs?
我有点多付了。
I kinda overpaid.
谢谢。
Thanks.
但这个过程很复杂，而且时间窗口有限。
But there is a whole process to it and also a limited time window.
在第300天之前，你可以提交一种叫做‘事后修正’的申请，本质上就是对海关说：
Up until day 300, you can file what's called a post summary correction where you essentially say, hey, customs.
我原始申报出错了。
I messed up my original entry.
这是新的更正文件。
Here's the new corrected documents.
请接受我的更正。
Please accept my correction.
你可以来个‘搞错了’，然后撤回重来。
You can do an oopsie, take backsees.
一个失误，可以撤回。
An oopsie, take backsees.
是的。
Yes.
好的。
Okay.
但如果你错过了调整关税、撤回或纠错的截止日期怎么办？
But what if you miss the deadline to do your tariff, take backsees, oopsies?
莫琳说，对于这些关税，答案并不完全明确。
Maureen says, with these tariffs, the answer is not totally clear.
但你总是可以去打官司。
But you could always go to court.
那是第二个选择。
That's option two.
你可以直接起诉美国政府。
You could just sue the US government.
你可以提起诉讼，说：嘿。
You could file a lawsuit that says, hey.
我支付了这些关税。
I paid these tariffs.
最高法院刚刚裁定这些关税是非法的，所以请把我的钱退回来。
The Supreme Court just said that these tariffs are illegal, so please give me my money back.
事实上，许多公司，比如好市多、丰田和固特异，甚至在最高法院作出裁决之前就已经开始提起这些关税退款诉讼了。
In fact, a lot of companies like Costco and Toyota and Goodyear, they started filing these tariff refund lawsuits even before the supreme court made its decision.
现在，莫琳提到了另一种可能性，这也是许多人所期待的：也许特朗普政府会为所有人建立一种官方的、简便的流程，以退还IEPA关税，但这可能需要一些时间。
And now there's one more possibility that Maureen talked about, and this is one that it seems like a lot of people are hoping for, which is that maybe the Trump administration is gonna create some kind of official easy process for everyone to get their IEPA tariff refunds, though that might take a while.
现在人们可能不想等待，但大家都在猜测，试图解读这一切的迹象。
Now people might not wanna wait, but everyone's sort of speculating and trying to figure out like, try to read tea leaves about all of this.
那我们呢？
So what about us?
对吧？
Right?
比如，普通人能拿到我们买那盏灯时支付的关税退款吗？
Like, can regular people get a refund on the tariffs we paid on, you know, that lamp I bought?
莫琳说，这要看情况。
And Maureen says, well, it depends.
你是直接向海关支付了关税，还是只是被包含在购买价格里了？
Did you actually pay the tariff directly to customs?
还是说关税已经算进你的购买价格里了？
Or was it just like priced into your purchase?
如果你觉得，作为一个纳税人和消费者，自从去年以来我买猫砂花的钱更多了，因为全球的猫砂公司都因为关税而提价，那可能就拿不到退款。
If you're like, I think as a tax payer and consumer that I have been paying more for kitty litter since last year because kitty litter companies across the globe are raising their prices because of tariffs, then probably not.
明白了。
Okay.
但假设我们中有个人，为妹妹的婚礼从英国买了一条高档裙子，结果收到货时被海关通知要付一大笔关税。
But say one of us, like, hypothetically bought a fancy dress from The UK for their little sister's wedding and then was surprised with a big tariff bill once that dress arrived at customs.
我能去海关窗口申请这笔退款吗？
Can I go to the customs window and ask for that refund?
假设一下。
Hypothetically.
对。
Right.
对。
Right.
假设一下。
Hypothetically.
莫琳说这实际上非常模糊，因为我们一直讨论的这个海关退款窗口，并不是对所有人都开放的，而且它原本就不是为处理这种大规模关税而设计的。
Maureen says that's actually really unclear because this customs refund window we've been talking about, it's not available to everybody, and it was actually never designed to deal with this specific kind of big tariff.
但她表示，你总是可以提起诉讼来要回你的钱。
But she says you could always file a lawsuit to get your money back.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为我们Planet Money节目组肯定得打场官司，就为了看看这个流程到底是怎样的。
I think we at Planet Money are definitely gonna have to sue, like, just to see what the process is.
会发生什么？
What happens.
对吧？
Right?
这就是Planet Money的方式。
This is this is the Planet Money way.
是的。
Yeah.
还有什么比打官司更有趣的吗，莎拉？
What could be more fun than a lawsuit, Sarah?
好吧。
Alright.
那我来查一下。
So I'll look into that.
好的。
Yes.
你打算去研究一下我们该怎么起诉联邦政府。
You're gonna go look into how we're gonna sue the federal government.
很乐意。
Happy to.
好的。
Okay.
与此同时，许多公司不愿意等待最高法院的裁决，或者不确定是否能获得退款。
Meanwhile, a lot of companies didn't wanna wait for the Supreme Court decision or to figure out if they were gonna get a refund.
所以他们找到了一种提前获得退款的方法。
So they found a way to get pre refunded, if you will.
我们的联合主持人玛丽·奇尔兹今天采访了一位为公司提供这些预退款服务的人，这是一项全新的新兴市场。
Our cohost, Mary Childs, actually talked today to someone who has been getting companies these pre refunds, these refunds in advance, which is a whole brand new baby market.
是的。
Yes.
关税退款的市场。
The market for tariff refunds.
这个人告诉我，这个小小的新兴市场中，已经完成了数亿美元的交易。
And there are hundreds of millions of dollars of deals that have already been done in this little baby market, this person told me.
好的。
Okay.
所以自从AIPA关税实施以来，企业一直在缴纳关税，同时知道它们可能最终会收回一大笔钱
So since the AIPA tariffs started, companies have been paying the tariffs all while knowing that they might get this big pile
如果这些关税被裁定为非法的话。
of money back should the tariffs be ruled illegal.
对吧？
Right?
对。
Right.
所以没有人能知道最高法院是否会裁定这些关税合法或非法。
So no one could know if the supreme court would decide whether they were legal or illegal.
因此，这对企业来说是一种令人烦恼的不确定性。
So it was this annoying uncertainty for companies.
比如，他们将来可能会得到退款。
Like, maybe maybe they would get refunds in the future.
是的。
Yeah.
但公司不想要未来的可能钱款。
But companies don't want maybe money in the future.
对吧？
Right?
他们想要的是今天确确实实的钱。
They want for sure money today.
所以他们宁愿付出一点代价，也要消除这种令人烦恼的复杂风险。
So they wanted to get rid of this annoying, complicated risk even if it cost them a little.
每当世界上任何地方的人说出这些话时
And whenever anyone, anywhere in the world utters those words
这无疑是对我们的行动号召。
Certainly, it's a call to action for us.
我们，华尔街和对冲基金。
Us, Wall Street, and hedge funds.
这是韦斯·哈雷尔。
This is Wes Harrell.
他是海港全球交易团队的负责人。
He's the head of a trading group at Seaport Global.
他是一名经纪人。
He's a broker.
他说这个新的婴儿市场是在十一月左右诞生的。
And he says this new baby market was born around November.
突然间，韦斯和他的同事们开始接到电话。
Suddenly, Wes and his colleagues start getting calls.
我们开始接到进口商的电话，同时也向进口商以及任何我们认为自解放日以来支付过关税的人支付款项。
We start to get phone calls from importers, and we're also making outgoings to importers and and basically anyone that we believe has paid a tariff since liberation day.
这些进口商、这些公司就说，好吧。
These importers, these companies are like, okay.
我们有一些潜在的关税退款索赔。
We have these potential tariff refund claims.
有没有人想购买这些潜在的退款，或者其中一部分？
Does anyone wanna basically buy this potential refund or or part of it?
意思是，你先给我公司一部分我可能拿到的退款，然后如果你最终能拿到全额退款，你就赚了。
Meaning like, give me the company a fraction of the refund that I might get and then you, the buyer, can get the full refund if it ever comes.
你知道谁手上有现金，谁可能想买这种东西吗？
And do you know who has cash and who might wanna buy this kind of stuff?
对冲基金。
Hedge funds.
基金。
Funds.
对冲基金。
Hedge funds.
有一些对冲基金，也就是Wes的客户，专门关注濒临破产或已经破产的公司，他们寻找各种方式来押注诉讼，或者任何奇怪、高风险、复杂得离谱但可能赚钱的事情。
There are hedge funds, Wes' clients, that focus on bankrupt companies or near bankrupt companies who are looking for ways to make bets on litigation or anything weird or risky in an odd way or overly complicated things that might make money.
Wes的工作就是打电话给这些人，说：嘿。
And Wes' job is to call those people up and say, hey.
我有个奇怪、风险高、特别复杂但可能赚钱的东西。
I have this weird, risky in an odd way, overly complicated thing that might make money.
你愿意出什么价格买它？
At what price would you be interested in buying it?
在最高法院这项裁决之前，情况一直是这样的。
So here's how it has been working before this Supreme Court decision.
假设我是一家服装公司，我进口服装时支付了2万美元的关税。
Let's say I'm a dress company, and that I have paid $20,000 in tariffs from importing dresses.
这2万美元有可能被退还给我。
That is potentially $20,000 that I might get refunded.
我会去找Wes，说：我不想面对这种不确定性和风险。
I would go to Wes and say, I don't wanna deal with this uncertainty, with this risk.
你能帮我卖掉吗？
Can you sell it?
我不需要拿回全部的2万美元。
I don't need to get the full $20,000 back.
我只要拿到我潜在退款的20%就行。
I just want something like 20% of my potential refund.
给我四千块就够了。
Give me just four k of it.
我显然是个对冲基金。
And I'm obviously a hedge fund.
Wes给我打电话，我说：听好了。
Wes calls me, and I'm like, listen.
对。
Yeah.
我很想买下这笔未来的潜在收益，但最高法院可能会裁定这是合法的，那样我就一无所获。
I would love to buy that potential future money, but the supreme court might say it's legal, and I will get nothing.
所以我只愿意出20%的价钱，这样我可能赚16美元的利润。
So I'm only willing to pay, like, 20%, and I might get $16 in profit.
这还不算糟。
It's not bad.
奇怪的是，当这个婴儿市场兴起时，卖家和买家的意见非常一致。
Weirdly, the seller and the buyer were very aligned when this baby market was popping up.
这个市场从很早开始就异常清晰明确。
The market was was oddly well defined from a very early stage in this.
韦斯说，有一个特定行业对此特别感兴趣。
And one industry in particular, Wes says, was really into it.
我们发现零售服装和鞋类行业有相当程度的兴趣，我想这说得通。
We found that there was a decent amount of interest in the retail apparel and footwear sectors, which I suppose makes sense.
我能给出的最佳理由是，我认为它们受到了这些新关税的严重影响。
I I the best the rationale I can give is I think that they were acutely impacted by these new tariffs.
是的。
Yeah.
它们急需获得现金流。
And they were looking for the ability to raise cash immediately.
套现以便用这些现金做正常的公司事务，这些钱来自他们可能（或可能没有）在未来获得的关税退税。
Raise cash so they could go do normal corporate things with the cash they just got selling the tariff refund they may or may not have gotten in the future.
如今，在最高法院今天的裁决之后，退款的可能性大幅上升，这些索赔的价值也因此大幅增加。
Now after today's Supreme Court ruling, the probability of refunds has gone way up, and these claims are now way more valuable.
韦斯说，价格已经飙升。
Wes says the prices have jumped.
现在已经不是20%了。
It's not at 20% anymore.
目前的价格大约在40%左右，这是我们看到的报价水平。
Price now is 40 is sort of where we're seeing bids shake out.
对冲基金正在以预计退款总额的40%购买这种潜在的退款权益。
Like hedge funds are buying the potential refund for 40% of what it will total if it happens.
目前情况非常不稳定。
Things are very much in flux.
这一裁决只是最近才做出的。
This decision was only just recently made.
我们仍在努力厘清报价的来源。
We're still trying to shake out where offerings are coming in.
我们目前正在从多个不同的进口商那里收到报价。
We're getting incomings from a number of different, importers as we speak.
这仍然是60%的折扣，因为要拿到这笔退款过程会非常混乱，而且耗时很长。
That's still a discount of 60% because of what a mess it's going to be to try to get this refund and how long it will take.
对冲基金购买的就是这种复杂性、不确定性以及潜在收益带来的麻烦。
That's what the hedge funds are buying, all that complexity, the uncertainty, the headache for the potential payoff.
这种大规模的逆转在现代历史上根本没有先例，我根本看不到政府会迅速扭转局面并立即发放退款。
There really is no modern parallel for the magnitude of of this unwind, and I just don't see the administration turning around in short order and immediately issuing refunds.
布雷特·卡瓦诺将其总结为一团糟。
Brett Kavanaugh summed it up as mess.
是的。
Yes.
没错。
Exactly.
这是今天的一个精彩引述。
That's a great quote from today.
广告后，今天特朗普总统新增了关税，我们会告诉您具体细节。
After the break, today, president Trump added new tariffs, and we'll tell you how.
这项重大的最高法院裁决并没有取消特朗普所有的关税，只是取消了他试图利用IEPA实施的那些广泛性关税。
So this big Supreme Court decision, it didn't get rid of all of Trump's tariffs, just the big sweeping ones he tried to create using IEPA.
但还有其他法律赋予总统制定关税的权力。
But there are other laws that give the president the power to create tariffs.
我们的贸易法教授凯瑟琳·克劳森上次做客节目时，给我们详细列出了这些法律。
Kathleen Claussen, our trade law professor, ran through a whole list of them with us last time she was on the show.
这些法案大多以其三位数的编号命名。
Most of these statutes, go by their their three digits.
所以，如果你想在贸易圈里显得很专业，就得开始用三位数来讨论。
So if you wanna sound cool in trade world, you have to start talking in three digits.
对吧？
Right?
第三百零一条、第二百三十二条、第二百零一条，这样的条款还有很多。
Section three zero one, section two thirty two, section two zero one, the list goes on.
这些法律大多是在冷战期间制定的，目的是赋予总统经济权力，以应对各种冷战相关事务。
So these laws, they were mostly created during the Cold War to give the president economic powers to, you know, deal with all that Cold War stuff.
但在整个九十年代和二月份的几十年里，这些法律实际上很少被使用。
But for decades through the nineties and February, they weren't really used that much.
因为我们加入了世界贸易组织，承诺降低关税。
Because we had become a member of the World Trade Organization, we were committed to lowering tariffs.
我们并不希望提高关税。
We were not interested in raising tariffs.
因此，只有在特朗普胜选后，这些法律才迎来了复兴。
And so it's only since Trump won that they experienced this renaissance.
特朗普在第一任期当选后，开始使用一些这些三位数的法律，主要是第三百零一条和第二百三十二条来设立新的关税。
After Trump was elected for his first term, he started using some of these three digit laws, mostly section three zero one and section two thirty two to create new tariffs.
最高法院最新的裁决并未触及任何依据这些三位数法律设立的关税。
The supreme court's latest decision doesn't touch any of the tariffs created under those three digit laws.
例如，目前我们对中国的一些机械、矿产和鞋类征收了多项特定关税。
For instance, right now we have a bunch of specific tariffs on some Chinese machinery and minerals and also footwear.
这些关税是根据第301条法律设立的。
Those tariffs were created under the section three zero one law.
这些关税至今仍然有效。
Those tariffs are still in place.
但如果你是一位喜欢实施广泛关税的总统，这些三位数法律大多有一个重大限制。
But if you are a president who loves sweeping tariffs, most of these three digit laws have a major limitation.
它们大多只允许你设立特定的、有针对性的关税。
Most of them only let you create specific targeted tariffs.
例如，第232条完全是关于保护国家安全的。
For instance, section two thirty two is all about protecting national security.
而整个流程本身需要花费相当长的时间。
And the process itself takes a while.
必须提交报告，还有大量的行政工作。
There's gotta be a report, just a lot of administrative work.
使用IEPA制定关税的吸引力在于这个过程会快得多。
The appeal of creating tariffs using IEPA was that the process would be much faster.
所以，如果最高法院允许总统像他希望的那样使用IEPA，他只需一纸命令就能推出大量关税。
So if the supreme court would let the president use IEPA like he wanted to use it, he could create a bunch of tariffs with just the stroke of his pen.
但现在看来，似乎没有任何法律能赋予他这种权力。
And now it seems like there really isn't any law that would give him that kind of power.
还是说有？
Or is there?
在周五的新闻发布会上，特朗普宣布依据另一部法律、另一个三位数条款，实施一项全面的10%关税。
At this press conference on Friday, Trump announced a new across the board 10% tariff under a different law with a different three digit number.
他说是第122条。
He said section one twenty two.
是的。
Yes.
那么那里到底发生了什么？
So what what is going on there?
展开剩余字幕（还有 104 条）
这是今天的大新闻。
That's the big news of the day.
凯瑟琳说，是的。
Kathleen says, yeah.
欢迎来到第122条。
Welcome to section one twenty two.
它允许总统在有限时间内实施最高15%的关税，以应对国际收支赤字。
It allows the president to impose a a a tariff of up to 15% for a limited period of time, to address a balance of payments deficit.
她说，这是另一项冷战时期制定的经济法律。
She says this is another one of those economic laws written during the Cold War.
与一些其他三位数的法律不同，凯瑟琳说，第122条在理论上允许总统迅速制定大量关税。
And unlike some of the other three digit laws, Kathleen says section one twenty two, in theory, lets the president create a lot of tariffs really fast.
有总统曾经使用过第122条来征收关税吗？
Has a president ever used section one twenty two to make tariffs?
没有。
No.
以前从未有总统这样做过。
No president has before.
从未有过。
Never.
这以前从未发生过。
That has never been done before.
但凯瑟琳说，许多贸易法教授一直预期特朗普会在某个时候援引这一第122条法律。
But Kathleen says a lot of trade law professors have been expecting Trump to turn to this section one twenty two law at some point.
这里有一个重要的限制，那就是根据第122条制定的关税本应在150天后到期。
And there is a big caveat here, which is that tariffs created under section one twenty two, they are supposed to expire after a hundred fifty days.
该法案规定，国会可以延长这一期限，因此最终决定权交给了国会。
And the statute says that congress can extend that period, so it does throw it back to congress.
但我很快要指出的是，由于它从未被使用过，所以我们目前还没有任何先例。
But I would quickly say that I think it has not been used, so we haven't we don't have any test case yet.
比如，如果150天期限结束后，总统又重新实施一次呢？
Like, what if after the one hundred and fifty days are up, the president just does it again?
再实施一项持续150天的10%关税。
Makes another 10% tariff that lasts another one hundred and fifty days.
凯瑟琳说，是的。
Kathleen says, yeah.
针对这项新的10%关税，将会出现诉讼。
There's gonna be lawsuits to come over the new 10% tariff.
听起来法学院教授们已经对这种法律的假设性使用展开过不少 hypothetical 的争论了。
Sounds like law professors have already kind of had hypothetical fights about this hypothetical use of this law.
这正是我们最擅长的，杰夫。
That's what we do best, Jeff.
现在来看看之前提到的玩具商人卡拉·戴尔，顺便说一句，她卖玩具，所有这些关税的反复无常，想想都让人精疲力尽。
Now for Cara Dyer, the business owner from earlier, who, by the way, sells toys, all of this tariff whiplash, it is so exhausting to think about.
是的。
Yeah.
上次我们采访卡拉时，正值去年夏天中美关税剧烈波动的时期，她当时还在犹豫是否能负担得起大批量采购玩具，因为她不确定是否能承担得起这些订单的关税。
And the last time we talked to Cara, which was in the midst of the sort of roller coaster of tariffs on China last summer, she was on the fence about whether or not she was gonna be able to afford to put in large orders of toys because she didn't know if she'd be able to afford the tariffs on those orders.
她当时还希望，也许中国或她合作的中国制造商能分担一部分成本。
And she was hopeful that maybe China or the Chinese manufacturers she worked with would help chip in.
我记得当时我们还想过，也许中国会分担一部分关税成本。
I remember at one point, were like, maybe China will, like, share in the cost of the tariffs.
那后来没有发生吗？
Did that not happen?
没有。
No.
是的。
Yeah.
一点都没有。
Not at all.
一点都没有。
Not at all.
他们愿意做一些可能不合法的事情，比如把我们的货物和其他大量物品混装在一个大集装箱里，不申报，或者谎称我们的货物价值低于实际价值。
They were willing to do things that were, like, probably not legal, like, you know, put us, in a big container with lots of other items and not report it or say that our inventory wasn't worth as much as it was.
这些就是当时提供给我们的做法。
Those were the kinds of things that were sort of offered to us.
但我们并没有真的接受这些提议。
And we didn't really take any take them up on that
因为很诱人，对吧？
because Tempting, Right?
是的。
Yeah.
很诱人，但风险极高。
Tempting, but super risky.
对吧？
Right?
所以
So
是中国的工厂会说，比如，我们就说那个集装箱里只有200个玩偶，而不是500个。
It was like the factories in China that would say, like, we'll just say that there's only 200 dolls in that container, not 500.
是的。
Yeah.
但我对此感到不自在。
But I didn't feel comfortable with it.
所以我们从未做过类似的事情。
So we we never did anything like that.
哇。
Wow.
卡琳最终更换了供应商。
Cara ended up switching suppliers.
但除此之外，卡琳实际上彻底改变了她的整个业务。
But beyond that, Cara changed up her whole business, actually.
她没有订购任何大批量货物，因为关税太高且不稳定，她认为这会让她破产。
She didn't order any large shipments because tariffs were so high and unpredictable that she thought they'd put her out of business.
我们确实收缩了。
We did pull back.
去年我们没有下任何其他大额订单。
We didn't place any other large orders this past year.
相反，我们专注于开发新产品并进行测试。
And instead, we focused on developing new products and testing them out.
卡琳决定把这一年当作测试年，只开发新产品，而不一定进口它们。
Cara instead decided to have, like, a testing year to just develop new products and not necessarily import them.
她设计了一本叫做《小红帽》的故事书，她这么称呼它们。
So she designed this little Red Riding Hood storybook, she calls them.
她的公司名叫Storytime Toys。
Her company is called Storytime Toys.
孩子们可以读一个童话故事，然后在他们构建的童话世界里玩耍。
Kids can read a fairy tale and then play in that fairy tale world that they build.
它们就像一些小型套装。
They're like these little sets.
小红帽可以穿过森林去奶奶家，而狼可以把奶奶藏在一个小箱子里。
Red Riding Hood can go through the woods and get to her grandmother's house, and the wolf can put the grandmother inside a little, you know, a little Amar to hide her.
这个套装有很多有趣的地方。
And so there's lots of fun things about that set.
当卡娜在她的测试年中测试这个套装时，它在客户中表现相当不错。
And when Cara tested out this set during her testing year, it did pretty well with customers.
因此，在最高法院裁决之前，卡娜实际上已经决定最终下单订购一大集装箱的这些故事书。
So before the Supreme Court decision, Kara had actually decided to finally put in an order for a big container full of these storybooks.
这是自关税生效以来她的第一个大集装箱订单。
It's her first big container since the tariffs first went into effect.
那是12000件产品。
That was 12,000 products.
所以我们可能得为这批货支付大约15000美元的关税。
So we probably would have had to pay about $15,000 in tariff on that.
现在都取消了吗？
And now it's just gone?
取消了。
Gone.
是的。
Yes.
是的。
Yes.
呃。
Ugh.
我的意思是，这真是极大的解脱和成本节约。
I mean, that's such a huge relief and cost savings.
但关税可能实际上并未就此结束。
Except it may not actually be the end of tariffs though.
她知道这一点。
And she knows this.
我一直在关注新闻，了解政府对此事的回应。
I've just sort of been following along with the news and, you know, what the administration has been saying in response to this.
比如，哦，好吧，我们会找到别的办法。
Like, oh, well, we'll find another way.
所以我真的不知道。
So I don't I just don't know.
我不知道这是否意味着关税的终结。
I don't know if it's the end of tariffs or not.
我只是今天想对这件事感到一些希望。
I just today, I wanna feel hopeful about it.
但当然，过山车还没结束。
But, of course, the roller coaster is not over.
特朗普今天已经宣布了新的10%关税。
Trump already announced today that new 10% tariff.
卡拉对此感到非常沮丧，因为她不得不因为关税而重新构想整个业务。
And, Kara, she is just pretty frustrated that she's had to reimagine her whole business because of tariffs.
重新思考我们的策略，重新规划我们的财务。
Rethink our strategy, rethink our finances.
当然，我对此感到愤怒，尤其是当关税实施时，你根本看不到任何理由。
Definitely, I feel angry about that, especially when it really felt like just while it was going on, you didn't see any reason for it.
我们因为这么做，从中国那里得到了更好的交易吗？
Were we getting a better deal from China, you know, because we did this?
没有。
No.
总的来说，卡拉说她只支付了大约2万美元的关税，因为她减少了订单。
In all, Cara says she only paid about $20,000 in tariffs because she scaled back on orders.
所以也不是很多，
So not a ton,
但这2万美元对于一家小企业来说，确实相当可观。
but that $20,000 for a small business is that's that's pretty significant.
而且她计划申请退款。
And she does plan to try to apply for a refund.
但我不确定。
But I don't know.
我的意思是，如果我得请律师，就得权衡一下律师费用和我可能拿回的钱哪个更划算。
I mean, if I have to hire a lawyer, I'll have to weigh the cost of that compared to how much I would potentially get back.
但是，我的意思是，如果这些关税是非法的，我们就需要拿回这笔钱，以便用于投资和运营我们的业务。
But, I mean, if there are illegal tariffs, we need that money back so that we can invest it in growing our business and operating our business.
嘿。
Hey.
你想在我们的图书巡演现场观看《Planet Money》吗？
Do you wanna see Planet Money in person on our book tour?
活动在四月。
It's in April.
我们将横跨全国。
We're going coast to coast.
详情请访问 planetmoneybook.com。
Details at planetmoneybook.com.
本集由萨姆·黄马·凯斯勒和威洛·鲁宾制作。
This episode was produced by Sam Yellow Horse Kessler and Willow Rubin.
本集由玛丽安·麦克尤恩编辑。
It was edited by Marianne McEwen.
本集的事实核查由西耶拉·华雷斯完成。
It was fact checked by Sierra Juarez.
亚历克斯·戈德马克是我们执行制片人。
Alex Goldmark is our executive producer.
感谢伊莉莎·罗纳德·哈农在彭博社对关税退税交易所做的出色报道，以及耶鲁预算实验室的玛莎·吉布尔。
Thank you to Eliza Ronald Hannon for some great reporting at Bloomberg on the tariff rebate trading, and to Martha Gimble at the Yale Budget Lab.
我是玛丽·奇尔兹。
I'm Mary Childs.
我是西耶拉·冈扎内斯。
I'm Sierra Guanzanes.
我是杰夫·沃。
And I'm Jeff Woah.
这是美国国家公共电台。
This is NPR.
感谢收听。
Thanks for listening.
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