每日逮捕奥巴马，爱泼斯坦文件永不见

今天的节目赞助商是SimpliSafe家庭安防系统。现在是八月，希望这意味着你正在度假，暂时远离政治纷扰。知道SimpliSafe能主动防护会让人安心。

Today's presenting sponsor is SimpliSafe Home Security. It's August, which hopefully means you're on vacation and trying to tune out the political circus for a bit. Knowing SimpliSafe is proactive.

我们。不是我们，汤米。

Us. Not us, Tommy.

稍微有点。知道SimpliSafe正在主动监控你的家，随时准备在威胁发生前阻止它们，这能带来真正的安心。你知道什么是SimpliSafe吗？你知道谁在用SimpliSafe吗？谁？

A little bit. Knowing SimpliSafe is proactively watching your home, ready to stop threats before they happen, bring some actual peace of mind. You know what is SimpliSafe? You know who has a SimpliSafe? Who?

约翰·洛维特自己安装的。什么？不知怎么做到的。

John Lovett set it up himself. What? Somehow.

我只听到蜗牛的声音。

I'm just hearing the snail.

不知怎么，反正就是做到了。顶级传感器。能用手机开关。不仅能保护整个房子免遭盗窃和闯入，还能防范其他可能降临在你财产上的坏事，比如水损、烟雾，或者其他你能想到的。强烈推荐。

Somehow, someway. Top of the line sensors. Can You turn it on and off from his phone. You can protect your whole house not only from burglars and break ins, but also from other bad things that could befall your property, like water damage or smoke or you fill in the blanks there. Highly recommend it.

大多数安防系统只在有人闯入后才采取行动，那就太迟了。SimpliSafe新的主动守卫户外防护能在闯入发生前就阻止。如果有人鬼鬼祟祟，客服会实时喊话。他们会打开聚光灯，这样就能主动报警，在犯罪开始前就吓阻。我告诉过你我的建议，那些失业的脱口秀演员应该为SimpliSafe工作。

Most security systems only take action after someone breaks in, and that is too late. SimpliSafe's new active guard outdoor protection helps stop break ins before they happen. If someone's lurking, agents talk to them in real time. They turn on spotlights so they can call the police proactively deterring crime before it starts. I think I've told you my, pitch that, underemployed roast comedians should work for SimpliSafe.

我喜欢这个主意。对那些窃贼狠狠嘲讽

I like that. And just shit all over those burglars

就在他们试图闯入的时候。

as they're trying to break in.

打击他们自尊。懂吗？

Neg them. You know?

那件T恤。被CNET评为2025年最佳家庭安防系统。400万美国人信赖SimpliSafe。它被《新闻周刊》和《今日美国》评为客户服务第一名。监控计划起价约每天一美元。

That t shirt. Named best home security system of 2025 by CNET. 4,000,000 Americans trust SimpliSafe. It's ranked number one in customer service by Newsweek USA Today. Monitoring plans start around a dollar a day.

提供六十天退款保证。无合约、无隐藏费用。访问simplisafe.com/crooked可享新系统五折优惠，并获赠专业监控计划的第一个月免费服务。网址是simplisafe.com/crooked。没有比SimpliSafe更安全的了。

There's a sixty day money back guarantee. There's no contracts and no hidden fees. Visit simplisafe.com/crooked to claim 50% off a new system with a professional monitoring plan to get your first month free. That's simplisafe.com/crooked. There's no safe like simplisafe.

欢迎收听《拯救美国播客》。我是约翰·法夫洛。

Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm John Favreau.

我是约翰·洛维特。

I'm John Lovett.

我是汤米·维托。今天的节目里，我们将讨论德州民主党人为阻止共和党操纵选区而集体出逃的事件。其中一位民主党人、州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科向洛维特透露了他们的计划。我们还会谈到那些垃圾筹款短信背后的公司、特朗普放弃为试管婴儿提供保险的竞选承诺、他将吉斯莱恩·麦克斯韦转移至最低安保级别监狱的决定，以及他的新宠女演员西德妮·斯威尼。但首先要说的是：由于上周五糟糕的就业报告，特朗普解雇了劳工统计局局长，今后美国政府发布的经济数据将不再那么可信。

I'm Tommy Vitor. On today's show, we'll talk about Texas Democrats fleeing the state to stop a Republican gerrymander. And one of those Democrats, state representative James Talarico, talked to Lovett about what their plan is. We'll also talk about the firm behind all those spam fundraising texts, Trump backing off his campaign promise to cover IVF, his decision to transfer Ghislain Maxwell to a minimum security facility, and his new favorite actress, Sydney Sweeney. But let's start with the fact that the economic data released by the US government will no longer be as trustworthy because Donald Trump fired the economist who ran the Bureau of Labor Statistics after we got a bad jobs report on Friday.

报告显示七月经济预估新增7.3万个就业岗位，约为经济学家预期的一半。更糟的是，五月和六月的就业增长比最初估计的少了25.8万。此外，上半年经济增长相当疲软，通胀又开始抬头。这一切的原因并不难理解。美联社指出：‘随着特朗普总统反复无常的激进贸易政策令企业陷入瘫痪，美国招聘活动急剧放缓，人们对全球最大经济体的前景产生疑虑。’

The report showed that the economy added an estimated 73,000 jobs in July, about half of what economists expected. And worse, the report showed that the economy created 258,000 fewer jobs in May and June than originally estimated. On top of that, we've had fairly anemic economic growth in the first half of the year, and inflation has started ticking up again. The reason for all of this is not a huge mystery. As the AP put it, quote, US hiring is slowing sharply as president Donald Trump's erratic and radical trade policies paralyze businesses and raise doubts about the outlook for the world's largest economy.

这无疑引发了特朗普的自我反省——于是他立即决定迁怒于发布消息的人。埃丽卡·麦金塔弗博士在2024年以86比8的参议院投票结果获确认为劳工统计局局长，其中两张赞成票来自马可·卢比奥和JD·万斯。但可悲的是，她必须离职，因为她和她手下所有无党派经济学家统计就业数据的方式没能让特朗普脸上有光。以下是他在周日发表的标志性不实言论。

This undoubtedly led to some self reflection on Trump's part who promptly decided to shoot the messenger. Doctor Erica McIntarfer was confirmed by the Senate to lead the BLS in 2024 by a vote of 86 to eight. Two of those yes votes were from Marco Rubio and JD Vance. But sadly, she had to go because she and all the nonpartisan economists who worked for her didn't count up the number of jobs in a way that made Trump look good. Here he is Sunday offering his trademark nonfactual explanation.

我们将在未来三四天内宣布新任统计学家。我们对她毫无信心。她公布的数据简直荒谬。记得大选前吗？这个女人突然抛出拜登经济那些惊人的数据。惊人的数据。

We'll be announcing a new statistician sometime over the next three, four days. We had no confidence. I mean, the numbers were ridiculous what she announced. If you remember, just before the election, this woman came out with these phenomenal numbers on Biden's economy. Phenomenal numbers.

结果大选刚结束，他们就宣布那些数据是错的。前几天他们又故技重施。所以我认为这就是骗局。在我看来这就是另一个骗局。

And then right after the election, they announced that those numbers were wrong. And that's what they did the other day. So it's a scam in my opinion. My opinion is just it's just additional scam.

他当时是在对着一大群蜜蜂说话吗？

Was he speaking to a giant swarm of bees?

那是什么？他说的是额外的骗局吗？

What was that? Did he say additional scam?

额外的。就是额外的骗局。

Additional. It's additional scam.

额外的。是不是就像那种，呃，第一次订阅之类的，我也不太清楚。

Additional. Is that like a is that like add addition, like, I first subscription kind of don't know.

我也不知道。我觉得就是那种，嘿，新的骗局又来了。

I don't know. I think it's just the just the hey. New scam just dropped.

还有，他刚才说的完全不准确。他们在2024年8月就宣布了修订，远在总统大选之前。所以他根本就是在胡扯。凯文·哈西特，这位表面上合格的经济学家，负责特朗普的国家经济委员会，过去几天他试图解释这个情况。这是他在周日节目上的发言，然后到了周一，显然忘了他的谈话要点。

Also, what he said there was completely inaccurate. They announced the revision in August 2024, which is well before the presidential election. So he's just not just talking about anything that's real there. Kevin Hassett, the ostensibly qualified economist who runs Trump's National Economic Council, he's taken a few swings at explaining the situation over the last few days. Here he is on the Sunday shows, and then on Monday, apparently forgot his talking points.

我们来听听。

Let's listen.

政府是否有任何证据证明选举被操纵，就像总统说的那样？你们会向美国公众展示这些证据吗？

Does the administration have any evidence that it was rigged as the president said? Will you be presenting that to the American public?

呃，证据就是有一系列的修订可能……但是

There well, the evidence is that there have been a bunch of revisions that could But

确凿的证据。

hard evidence.

哦，我是说，这些修订就是确凿的证据。

Oh, I mean, the the revisions are hard evidence.

市场似乎更相信数据修正后的版本，而非原始数据。这就是为什么周五债券收益率暴跌的原因。嗯。

The market seemed to believe the revisions in in the numbers more than they believed the original numbers. That's why you saw bond yields tumble on Friday. Mhmm.

是

Are

你同意这个观点吗？你认为我们是否开始看到就业市场真正放缓？

are you in agreement with that? Do you think we are starting to see a real slowdown in the jobs market?

是的。我认为就业数据比我们预期的要疲软。关于数据修正的一个解释是，他们掌握了更完整的数据。因此，如果数据没有被操纵，修正后的数据可能更能准确反映实际情况。所以

Yeah. I think the the jobs numbers were slower than we expected. I think that, like, one of the explanations for revisions is they have more complete data. And so I think it it is likely that the revisions are a better read of the data if the data are not being manipulated. And so

我有点糊涂了。就业数据是被操纵了，还是真的很糟糕？

So I've lost track. Were the jobs numbers rigged, or were they bad?

如果有人突然忘记自我，像米特·罗姆尼当总统时那样回答问题，那真是奇怪。对吧？

It's strange to have someone just forget himself and actually kind of answer the questions if Mitt Romney were president. Right?

在二十四小时之内。

Within the span of twenty four hours.

凯文·哈塞特被拉出来为那些最荒唐愚蠢的事情辩护。比如，当特朗普因为巴西起诉其前总统领导他们自己的1月6日版本事件而对巴西加征关税时，他也出现在ABC新闻上。

Kevin Hassett gets trotted out to defend the most hilariously stupid shit. Like, he was also on ABC News when Trump slapped tariffs on Brazil because they were mad that Brazil was prosecuting the former president for leading their own version on January 6.

你们想试着解释一下为什么这件事这么重要吗？

You guys wanna take a crack at explaining why this is such a big deal?

那就开始解释吧。开始吧，老兄。好吧，这样说不合适。我不听了。

So Crack away. So Crack away, cracker. Okay. That's inappropriate. I don't listen.

也许你太沉迷于'觉醒美洲豹'了，但我们不是在说那种事。坐着荡秋千

Maybe you're too hooked on woke jaguar, but we're not saying that kind of thing. Sitting swing

我们会谈到'觉醒美洲豹'的。

We will get to woke jaguar.

谈谈觉醒美洲豹。

Get to woke jaguar.

回到2020年6月，跟我一起。跟我来趟记忆之旅吧。

In June 2020, come back with me. Take take a trip down memory like with me.

我当时就不喜欢这样。

I didn't like it then.

2020年6月，五月就业数据出炉，意外地不错。对吧？其实很糟糕，但没预期那么差。报告显示企业回聘了250万人，失业率仅13%。

In June 2020, the job numbers come out from May, and they're surprisingly good. Right? They're not good. They're terrible, but they're not as bad as they thought. And the report said that firms had added 2,500,000 jobs back, that the unemployment rate was only 13%.

但当时劳工统计局就表示：'我们怀疑数据收集有问题，普查员可能录错了数字。实际失业率可能超过16%。'特朗普没威胁要解雇劳工统计局局长，也没提醒大家——

But even in the moment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said, hey, we think we're having a problem collecting data. We think that our Census Bureau takers are putting the wrong numbers in. The actual employment rate is probably higher than 16%. Trump didn't threaten to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. He didn't say, hey, everybody.

'注意这些数据可能有水分'。他欣喜若狂，说经济正在强势复苏。拉里·库德洛声称出现了繁荣景象。

Be careful. Some of this data may be exaggerated. He was ecstatic. He said the economy is is roaring back. Larry Kudlow said that there was a a boom.

对吧？当时共和党人利用这个错误数据，拖延了进一步经济刺激的希望。民主党已通过刺激法案，许多失业救济即将到期，紧急措施也快失效。

Right? And Republicans at the time used this error to slow down any hope of doing more stimulus. Democrats had passed a stimulus bill. A lot of unemployment aid was running out. A lot of emergency measures running out.

民主党主张需要援助，特朗普却说：'不用了，数据好得很，我们完全不需要再行动。'这导致援助延迟了六个月，尽管民众正处于危机中。我们就是根据这种数据做决策的。

Democrats were like, we need to help. And Trump was like, no. The numbers are amazing, we so don't need to do this anymore. It delayed aid for another six months even though people were in crisis. We make decisions based on this data.

如果人们正在失去工作，无论数据是否显示，他们都在失去工作。无论你是否相信气候变化真实存在，他们都在遭受伤害。而特朗普并不关心如何应对实际发生的情况，他能做些什么来改善经济，降低生活成本，增加就业机会。他只希望数字看起来更好，而且他在各个领域都这么做。当我们无法再依赖经济数据时，这是极其危险的，因为我们不能信任本届政府会发布任何让特朗普难堪的信息。

If people are losing jobs, they're losing jobs whether or not the data shows it or not. They're they are being hurt whether or not, you know, climate change is real, whether you believe in it or not. And Trump doesn't care about how to respond to the actual facts of what's happening on the ground, what he can do to make the economy better, what he can do to bring costs down, what he can do to increase the number of jobs. He just wants the numbers to be better, and he's doing that across the board. It's extremely dangerous to no longer be able to rely on economic data because we can't trust that this administration will release any information that puts Trump in a bad light.

是啊。我是说，这本来应该是相当技术性的东西，对吧？失业率、工资、通货膨胀，这些枯燥的数据。而所有人都依赖这些数据——美联储、财政部、白宫、国会、金融市场、银行、小企业。

Yeah. I mean, this is supposed to be pretty wonky stuff. Right? Unemployment, wages, inflation, like, boring data. And everyone relies on this, the Fed, the Treasury Department, the White House, Congress, financial markets, banks, small businesses.

所以他们并不指望劳工统计局（BLS）完美无缺，但他们期望数据收集过程本身是无党派且独立的。如果你破坏了这种独立性，那对未来将是个巨大的问题。因为，你知道，一直有人质疑这个过程。比如史蒂夫·班农长期在这个问题上发声，他总是说劳工统计局有党派倾向，数据被操纵了。

And so they don't expect the BLS to be perfect, but they expect the process in the in the data itself to be nonpartisan and independent. And if you undercut that independence, that's a huge problem going forward. Because, you know, there there have been people that have called the process into question. Like, Steve Bannon has been on this beat for a long time. He's always said the BLS is partisan, and it's rigged.

但专家们通常明白这些是可靠的真实数据。如果专家们开始质疑支撑美国经济的这些数据，那将是个大问题，因为全世界可能会觉得——我不知道——比如，未来劳工统计局还有勇气发布特朗普总统不喜欢的数据吗？如果国际社会审视我们的经济，可能会说这里面政治风险太大了。关税问题、

But the experts usually understand that this is good data, and it's real. If the experts start to question the data underpinning The US economy, that's a huge problem because the world could decide I don't know, man. Like, maybe does the BLS have the courage to to put out data that president Trump doesn't like in the future? And and, like, if you're if you're like, the world the world could look at our economy and say, there is just too much political risk baked in. It's the tariffs.

劳工统计局的数据问题、特朗普对美联储的干预——如果他解雇杰罗姆·鲍威尔呢？他们可能就会决定——我不知道——我们还要购买国债吗？

It's the BLS data. It's it's Trump's interference with the Fed. What if he fires Jerome Powell? And they could just decide, like, I don't know, man. Like, should we buy treasuries?

我们还要投资股市吗？要不干脆撤资去别处投资吧。从历史上看，这种局面往往结局很糟糕。我们可以谈谈希腊的例子、

Should we put money in the stock market? Like, let's just move on. Let's go invest somewhere else. And historically speaking, like, that ends very badly. We could talk about the Greek example.

也可以讨论阿根廷。但简而言之，当你篡改经济数据时，不仅会给国内带来巨大痛苦，还会引发系统性风险。

We could talk about Argentina. But the long story short is when you mess with economic data, it leads to enormous pain both within your country, but also systemically.

为了防止有人不了解运作机制——劳工统计局的局长当然是由总统任命并经参议院确认的，被特朗普解职的正是这个人。但统计局其他成员都是无党派经济学家，他们遵循非常严格的统计方法标准，接受外部专家审查，所用标准完全透明。

And just in case people don't know how this all works, Bureau of Labor Statistics, obviously, the head of it is appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate. That is the person that Donald Trump fired. But the rest of the bureau is just a bunch of nonpartisan economists, and they follow very strict statistical methodological standards. They are reviewed by outside experts. They are transparent, the standards they use.

所以这些完全不是黑箱操作。具体而言，就业数据是通过对全国企业的调查得出的，失业率则来自对家庭成员的就业情况调查。数据有时会出现修正，是因为很多公司和部分家庭在调查截止后才回复问卷，有些人就是延迟提交了调查反馈。

So none of this is like a black box. And what they do is for the jobs numbers, they do a survey of businesses all across the country. And then for the unemployment rate, they do a survey of households, of who's working in the household. And the reason that sometimes you get revisions in the data is because a lot of companies and some households don't answer the survey until after the survey is closed. So sometimes people are just late getting the, getting their survey responses.

自1979年这个体系建立以来，我们就一直存在数据修正。所以这根本不罕见。不过过去两个月的修正幅度确实是疫情以来最大的。但同时，关税政策对经济造成了冲击，移民突袭行动也减少了劳动力供给。

So you we've had revisions dating back to 1979 when this whole system was first set up. So it's, like, not unusual at all. It's a it's a much bigger revision over the last two months than at any time since since COVID. But also, we have had a shock to the economy with tariffs. We have immigration raids reducing the workforce.

由于Doge及其他特朗普政策的行动，我们已经历了大规模的政府职位削减。因此近期出现了许多异常情况，导致连续两个月出现较大幅度的数据修正，这完全不合常理。但汤米，正如你所说，这之所以如此重要，是因为那些可能想投资美国、购买国债的人。此外，杰罗姆·鲍威尔和美联储将据此决定是否降息、利率如何设定。如果他们无法基于可信数据做出决策，那将引发巨大问题。

We've had massive government job cuts because of Doge and other and other Trump actions. So there's been a lot going on that wouldn't make two months of fairly large revisions, like, totally out of the ordinary. But to to your point, Tommy, like, the reason this is so important, like you said, you've got people who wanna maybe invest in The United States, who might wanna buy treasury bonds. Also, Jerome Powell and the Fed, they're gonna set the they're gonna decide whether they're gonna do a rate cut, what the interest rates are gonna be. If they can't make that decision based on the data and trust the data, then then that's gonna be a huge problem.

顺便一提，社会保障的生活成本调整正是基于这些经济数据，失业保险金也是如此。如你所言，洛维特，这不只是就业数据——劳工统计局发布的通胀数据同样关键。如果特朗普安插的人手刻意压低真实通胀率，政府就不会相应提高社保福利以匹配生活成本，失业救济金也会停滞。这意味着当通胀数据失真时，民众将在失业救济和社保福利两方面遭受重创。

Also, by the way, cost of living adjustment for Social Security is is based on this economic data data and unemployment insurance benefits too. So if because as you mentioned, Lovett, it's not just jobs numbers. It's also inflation that comes out of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation numbers. So if Trump gets someone in there who gives him, an inflation number that's, lower than it really is, people aren't the government's not gonna adjust people's Social Security benefits to keep up with the cost of living, nor are they gonna adjust unemployment benefits to keep up with the cost of living. So people are gonna get fucked with unemployment benefits and Social Security if the inflation numbers are wrong.

如果这是孤立事件，如果特朗普是个冷静理性的行动者，长期质疑数据收集方式并对此有系统性意见，那尚可理解。但现实绝非如此。许多人假装特朗普始终认为劳工统计局存在失误——我们心知肚明：这实质是特朗普对政府信息收集与发布体系发动的全面战争。

If this were this were a one off, if this was Donald Trump was a calm, rational actor who had long believed there was a problem with the data collection and this was a culmination of his longstanding beef in no particular direction with the way the government measures statistics, fine. That's not what's going on here. A lot of people pretending that that might be what's going on here, that Trump has always felt as though the Bureau of Labor Statistics was making mistakes. We know what's going on. Donald Trump has launched a war on how the government collects and disseminates information.

今年三月，特朗普的商业部长解散了联邦经济统计咨询委员会及其他外部专家组——这些技术性极强的机构本由独立专家组成，唯一宗旨就是研讨如何更精准测算经济数据。

In March, Trump's commerce secretary disbanded the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee along with another outside group. Very wonky stuff. That group exists. It's a panel of outside experts. It exists for one purpose, to meet to talk about how the government can do a better job of accurately measuring economic information.

伦特尼克宣称这些机构的使命已'完成'。ProPublica的艾莉丝·麦吉利斯揭露了DOGE针对数据收集的多重打击：从毒品使用、孕产妇死亡率到艾滋病等性传播疾病，从教育成果到气象气球发射频率降低——后者在得州特大洪灾时凸显弊端。特朗普首任期内，农业部研究人员曾报告其对华贸易战重创农民，这些令政府难堪的报告曝光后，当局将经济研究人员办公室划归部门政治分支管辖，继而变本加厉。

Lutnick told them that their mission had been, quote, fulfilled. Alice McGillis at ProPublica reported on all the ways in which DOGE targeted data collection, specifically data on drug use, pregnancy, maternal mortality, adoption, accidental deaths, HIV, other sexually transmitted diseases, educational outcomes, even just weather balloons not going up as frequently, something that came up when when there was there were those terrible floods in Texas. In Trump's first term, researchers at the USDA reported that Trump's trade war with China was devastating farmers, among other reports that embarrass the administration. What do they do? They take the USDA economic researchers, they move their office under the political wing of of the agency, and then they go further.

他们宣布将研究人员办公室整体迁至堪萨斯城。于是这群华盛顿的经济学家面临抉择：要么辞职，要么举家搬迁。结果许多人选择离职。但现实终究是现实。

They announced that they're physically moving the researchers' offices to Kansas City. And so they told a bunch of economists in DC, oh, we don't like your reports. You can quit or you can move your whole family to Kansas City. And a lot of them quit as a result. But the reality was the reality.

如今我们已看清特朗普贸易战对农民的毁灭性影响：破产激增，自杀热线呼叫量上涨。他因负面新闻暴怒，但事实无法篡改，伤害已然造成。

We now know how devastating Trump's trade war was for farmers. Bankruptcies went up. Calls to suicide hotlines went up. He gets angry because the headlines are bad, but the actual facts remain the facts. The damage is the damage.

他不在乎结果，只在乎叙事。眼下这群人四处散播'特朗普只是要净化经济报告'的论调，而现实却是我们每周都听闻'巧克力配给量增加'的新故事，但根本不见巧克力踪影。

He doesn't care about the outcome. He cares about the story, and all these people are now going around trying to claim that Donald Trump is just trying to clean up our economic reports. When meanwhile, we're getting up in a situation where every week we're getting a new we're getting a new story about how our our chocolate rations are up, and yet no chocolate.

确实。他这么做一方面会造成巨大破坏，另一方面却解决不了根本问题——如果经济恶化，民众仍将切身感受到痛苦。

Yeah. I mean so he's on one hand, by doing this, he's gonna cause a lot of damage. On the other hand, he's not gonna fix his problem because people are still people are still gonna be feeling pain if the economy takes a turn.

没错。这正是整件事的荒谬之处：为何现在自乱阵脚？中期选举尚远，你们刚通过重大经济方案。

Right. Well, that that's what doesn't make sense about this. Why why freak out now? The midterms are a long ways away. You just passed your big economic package.

就像股市正在飙升。我只是不明白为什么，我猜可能是因为看了史蒂夫·班农在《战争室》里对此的咆哮，激发了你采取行动。但这有点任性。而且，就在他——我相信——发推说他因为和俄罗斯前总统德米特里·梅德韦杰夫的推特争执而重新部署了两艘核潜艇之后。

Like, the stock market is ripping. I just I don't understand why I guess maybe just kinda, like, take out the trash now, like, make your structural reform now because you watched Steve Bannon on the War Room rant about this, and it inspired you to make a move. But it's it's kinda just petulant. He also I mean, it came right after he, I believe, tweeted that he was repositioning two nuclear subs because he got in a Twitter fight with Dmitry Medvedev, the former president of Russia.

所以

So

是的。今天他又在看CNBC，发推‘真相’关于伊丽莎白·沃伦。他在对她大喊大叫。我觉得爱泼斯坦的事情真的让他很不安。还有那个表情。

Yeah. And today, he's, like, watching CNBC, and he's tweeting about truthing about Elizabeth Warren. He's yelling at her. He's just he's I think the Epstein thing is really shaking him. He's just and the look.

看吧。当你看到过去两个月被修正的经济数据，就业数字被下调了，我觉得他在想——可能他的政府也是——哦，也许经济正在这里放缓。

Look. When you look at the last two months of economic data that was revised, the jobs numbers were revised, I think he is thinking, and so probably his administration too, like, oh, maybe the economy is softening here.

这太糟糕了。就像是，

It's a terrible thing. It's like,

不如现在就解雇劳工统计局的人，这样我们就能开始篡改就业数据了。

you might as well might as well fire the BLS person now so we can start cooking the jobs numbers.

是啊。最好是

Yeah. Better to

情况确实变糟了。对。

do get bad. Yeah.

现在做总比明年好。对吧？随着选举临近。顺便说，他们为什么解散那些小组。

Better to do it now than than next year. Right. Right? As you're getting closer to the elections. By the way, why they disbanded those those panels.

他们不想让外界看到他们在做什么。对吧？这是计划的一部分。他们在各个领域都这么做。

They don't want anyone from the outside looking in and seeing what they're doing. Right? It's part of a plan. This is they're doing this across the board.

《拯救美国播客》由Hyah赞助播出。普通的儿童维生素通常含有大量糖分、不健康的化学物质和不必要的添加剂。Hyah提供了一款无糖、无胶状添加剂的超级咀嚼维生素，即使对挑食的孩子来说也美味可口。它旨在填补儿童饮食中常见的营养缺口，提供他们所需的全面营养。在儿科医生和营养专家的协助下研发，HIYA采用12种有机果蔬混合压制，并强化了15种必需维生素和矿物质。

Pod Save America is brought to by Hyah. Typical children's vitamins are often packed with sugar, unhealthy chemicals, and unnecessary additives. Hyah offers a superpower chewable vitamin with zero sugar and gummy additives that still taste great even for picky eaters. It's designed to fill common nutritional gaps in children's diets, providing the full body nourishment they need. Formulated with the help of pediatricians and nutritional experts, HIYA is pressed with a blend of 12 organic fruits and veggies, then supercharged with 15 essential vitamins and minerals.

产品非转基因、纯素、无乳制品、无过敏原、无明胶、无坚果，满足您能想到的所有安全需求。每一批次均在符合GMP标准的合格实验室通过科学验证的检测方法进行第三方测试，确保产品安全营养。HIYA专为两岁及以上儿童设计，直接送货上门，让父母少操一份心。查理服用HIYA维生素已有两年，他觉得味道很棒，而且补充了他作为挑食者所缺乏的各种维生素——正如他们所说。

It's non GMO, vegan, dairy free, allergy free, gelatin free, nut free, everything else you can imagine. Every single batch is third party tested in a qualified GMP compliant lab using scientifically validated testing methods so you know the product is safe and nutritious. Hiya is designed for kids two and up and sent straight to your door so parents have one less thing to worry about. Charlie takes Hiya vitamins, has for a couple years, and he thinks they taste great, and they, give him all the vitamins he doesn't get, from being a picky eater, like they said, and, you know,

或者前几天，

or The other day,

他解决了孪生素数猜想，即是否存在无限多个素数p使得p加二也是素数的问题。例如三加二等于五，十一加二等于十三，等等。要知道，他解决了这个难题。

he solved the twin prime conjecture, which is the question of whether there's infinitely many primes p such that p plus two is also prime. For example, three plus two is five, eleven plus two is 13, etcetera. You know, he solved it.

查理教会了我关于太阳系和泰坦尼克号沉没的知识——这些是我在地球上度过整整四十四年都未曾了解的。

Charlie has taught me things about the solar system and the Titanic sinking that I had never known in my entire forty four years on this Earth,

所以那个纳维-斯托克斯存在性与光滑性问题我就不参与了。

so The I will not be Navier Stokes existence and smoothness thing.

再次声明，这直接来自HYA维生素。没错，就是告诉您一声。您是否厌倦了逼迫孩子吃蔬菜？HYA现在推出了儿童每日绿色超级食品。

Again, this comes directly from HYA vitamins. Yeah. So just letting you know. Are you tired of battling with your kids to eat their greens? HYA now has kids daily greens and superfoods.

想象他们用这个能解决多少问题。一款专为儿童设计的巧克力味绿色粉末，含有55种以上全食物成分，助力大脑发育和消化健康。只需舀取、摇晃后与牛奶或任何非乳制品饮料混合，就能让孩子享受美味营养。这款深受百万家庭喜爱的多维维生素现与迪士尼《狮子王》联名推出，包含狮子王主题开箱体验、水壶和贴纸。千万别错过。

Imagine the problems they could solve with that. A chocolate flavored greens powder designed specifically for kids packed with 55 plus whole food ingredients to support brainpower development and digestion. Just scoop, shake, and sip with milk or any non dairy beverage for a delicious and nutritious boost your kids will actually enjoy. The same multivitamin that more than a million kids and parents love are now available with Disney's The Lion King with a new Lion King unboxing experience, including a Lion King bottle and Lion King stickers. Don't sleep on that.

我们与Hyah达成了其畅销儿童维生素的特惠合作。首单可享5折优惠。领取优惠必须访问hyahealth.com/crooked，此优惠在其常规官网不可用。前往hiyahealth.com/crooked，为孩子获取成长为健康成人所需的全面营养。

And we've worked out a special deal with Hyah for their best selling children's vitamin. Receive 50% off your first order. To claim this deal, you must go to hyahealth.com/crooked. This deal is not available on their regular website. Go to hiyahealth.com/crooked and get your kids the full body nourishment they need to grow into healthy adults.

好的。另一个证明美国民主并不健康的迹象：德州共和党州长格雷格·阿博特威胁要逮捕或罢免50多名民主党议员，除非他们允许阿博特实现特朗普的要求——在2026年中期选举前为德州再争取五个共和党众议院席位。阿博特召开了特别会议让共和党多数派重新划分已存在不公正的选区地图，但民主党人集体离州以阻止会议召开，因为德州宪法规定立法机构需三分之二成员出席才能议事。阿博特随后发布声明称，若民主党人未在周一会议开始前返回，可能被免职。他还声称，若民主党人试图通过募资来支付缺席会议每日500美元的罚款，或将面临重罪指控。

Alright. And another sign that democracy in America isn't exactly alive and well, the Republican governor of Texas, Greg Abbott, has threatened to arrest and or remove from office more than 50 Democratic legislators unless they let Abbott fulfill Trump's request to squeeze five more Republican house seats out of Texas just in time for the twenty twenty six midterms. Abbott has called a special session so the Republican majority can redraw the already gerrymandered maps, but the Democrats fled the state in order to prevent the session from taking place since the Texas constitution says that two thirds of the legislature must be present to do business. Abbott then released a letter claiming that if Democrats weren't back by the time the session began on Monday, they could be removed from office. He also claims Democrats could face felony charges if they tried to fundraise in order to pay the $500 a day fine that comes with missing a session.

大多数破坏法定人数的议员都去了伊利诺伊州，受到州长JB·普利兹克的欢迎。就在我们录制节目前，洛维特与其中一位民主党人——州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科进行了交谈，了解他离开的决定以及接下来的情况。以下是那次访谈内容。

Most of the quorum busters went to Illinois, where they were welcomed by governor JB Pritzker. Just before we recorded this, Lovett spoke with one of those Democrats, state representative James Talarico, about his decision to leave and what happens next. Here's that interview.

欢迎来到《拯救美国池塘》节目，德克萨斯州的众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科。首先，你能告诉我们你现在在哪里吗？

Welcome to Pond Save America, representative James Talrico of Texas. First of all, what can you tell us about where you are?

嗯，我在一个不起眼的酒店会议室里。我只能告诉你这么多。我们在伊利诺伊州，这很合适，因为这里是林肯的土地。亚伯拉罕·林肯在1840年担任州参议员时，曾通过跳出伊利诺伊州议会大厦的窗户来破坏法定人数。幸好我不必在德克萨斯州跳窗，但我们正在加入美国长期以来的传统——对抗霸凌、向权力说出真相、制造有益的麻烦。

Well, I'm in a nondescript hotel conference room. That's all I can tell you. We are in Illinois, and it's appropriate because this is the land of Lincoln. And Abraham Lincoln actually broke quorum back in 1840 when he was a state senator by jumping out of the window of the Illinois state capital. Thankfully, I didn't have to jump out of any windows in Texas, but we are joining a long tradition in America of standing up to bullies, of speaking truth to power, of causing good trouble.

而且我知道，无论可能面临什么后果，我和我的同事们都为从事这项工作感到自豪。

And I know my colleagues and I are proud to do this work regardless of what consequences may come.

那么让我们谈谈这个。你们的州长说你们已经放弃了职位。是这样吗？

So let's talk about that. Your governor says you've forfeited your office. Have you?

不。我仍在履行我的职责，尽管我不在德克萨斯州。今天早上，我和我的团队实际上就在这个酒店房间里为选民提供服务，同时我们也试图将全国的注意力集中在德克萨斯州正在发生的特朗普重新划分选区的权力攫取上，因为这不仅仅影响德克萨斯人。它实际上影响到每个美国人。特朗普正试图将自己与公众的意愿隔离开来。

No. I I'm still doing my job even though I'm not in the state of Texas. I was actually doing constituent services this morning with my team from this hotel room, and we're also trying to shine a national spotlight on this Trump redistricting power grab that's happening in Texas because it doesn't just affect Texans. It literally affects every American. Trump is trying to insulate himself from the will of the public.

他试图保护自己免受选民和问责的影响。如果我们允许这种情况发生，如果我们让权力在这个国家不受约束，我担心会导致什么后果。这就是为什么我和我的同事们认为我们需要采取离开州并破坏法定人数这一戏剧性步骤。

He's trying to shield himself from the voters and from accountability. And if we allow that to happen, if we let power go unchecked in this country, I am worried about where it will lead. And so that's why my colleagues and I felt we needed to take this dramatic step of leaving the state and breaking quorum.

正如你所指出的，这在我们国家和德克萨斯州有着悠久的传统。这种情况以前也发生过。据我所知，这是第一次有州长——过去在共和党州长任内也发生过——声称他有权力将立法者免职。现在司法部长肯·帕克斯顿表示这将具有挑战性。你对这一威胁怎么看？

So as you noted, there's a proud tradition of this in our country and in Texas. This has happened before. As far as I can tell, this is the first time a governor, and this has happened under Republican governors in the past as well, has asserted that somehow he has the power to remove legislators from office. Now the attorney general, Ken Paxton, said that that would be challenging. What what do you make of that threat?

这非常一致，因为这些被操纵的地图的整个目的是剥夺德克萨斯人选举他们选择的候选人的能力。现在格雷格·阿博特实际上是在试图将人民选举的官员从他们的办公室中移除。这是直接从特朗普的威权主义剧本中抄来的一页，他用比特朗普更少的魅力、幽默和魅力来做这件事，但它仍然同样危险，我们应该拒绝它。再次强调，这不是民主党的事。我们所有人都应该拒绝它，无论你是民主党人、独立人士还是共和党人。

It's very consistent because the whole point of these rigged maps is to rob Texans of their ability to elect the candidates of their choice. And so now Greg Abbott is literally trying to remove the people's elected official from their office. This is a page right outside of Trump's authoritarian playbook, and he does it with, you know, less charm and less humor and less charisma than Trump, but it is still just as dangerous, and we should reject it. Now, again, this is not a Democrat thing. All of us should reject it, whether you're a Democrat, an Independent, or a Republican.

是的。比如，假设你的选民对你代表他们做出这一决定感到不满，即使你是出于正确的原因，他们有很多机会在选举中将你免职。

Yeah. Like, presumably, if your voters are unhappy with your decision to do this on their behalf, even though you're doing it for the right reasons, they have many there's an opportunity for for you to be removed from office in an election.

确实如此。人们通过选举新的代表来改变政府，而这正是这些选区重划图所威胁到的。再次强调，这不仅威胁到民主党人，也威胁到所有人。因此我们必须抵制这种权力攫取。需要说明的是，选区操纵在全国各地都有发生，蓝州红州皆然，但这次的情况完全不同。

Exactly. And and that's how people change their government is they elect new people to represent them, and that's what these maps threaten. And, again, it doesn't just threaten it for Democrats. It threatens it for everyone, and so it's why we've got to push back against this power grab. I should say that gerrymandering happens across the country, and it does happen in blue states just like red states, but this is a whole another level.

通常我们在十年之初、人口普查结束后调整选区边界，因为需要根据人口变化重新划分。但特朗普要求德州共和党人重新绘制他们2021年刚划定的地图，以多获得五个席位。这让人想起他致电乔治亚州务卿要求找出11,000张选票的事。庆幸的是乔治亚州共和党人拒绝了，而德州共和党人却说：周四怎么样？

Usually, we adjust district boundaries at the beginning of a decade right after a census comes out because you have to adjust lines based on population. But Trump has asked Texas Republicans to redraw the maps they just drew in 2021 so that he can get five more seats. And it's a little reminiscent of when he called the Georgia secretary of state and asked him to find 11,000 votes. Thankfully, Georgia Republicans said no. Texas Republicans said, how about Thursday?

这就是为什么我和同事们认为必须离开我们热爱的州，打破法定人数要求，阻止这场权力攫取。

And it's why my colleagues and I felt the need to leave our beloved state, break quorum, and stop this power grab from going through.

你们正受到州长的威胁。新地图需要在12月前确定才能适用于2026年选举。事态将如何发展？现在情况如何？

So, you know, you're being threatened by the governor. A map would have to be in place, or be picked by December to be in place for 2026. How does this play out? What happens now?

我们正逐个特别会议应对。德州本次特别会议还将持续两周，我们57位同僚已一致同意未来两周不返回州议会，以阻止这些地图通过。州长可能再次召集特别会议，若真如此我们将评估对策。但我希望蓝州州长的反制威胁能让德州共和党人——甚至特朗普——悬崖勒马，因为他们明白在德州的所得可能在加州等地化为乌有。

Well, we're taking this one special session at a time, and the special session in Texas is gonna last two more weeks. So all of my colleagues, there's 57 of us in total, we have all agreed to stay out of the state capital for the next two weeks to kill these maps and and stop them from going through. Now the governor can call another special session. He may, and if he does, we will assess our options. But I am hopeful that some of the threats from blue state governors, some threats of retaliation, I'm hoping that can convince Texas Republicans, maybe even Donald Trump, to walk back from the brink because they see that the gains they could make in Texas could be wiped out in a state like California.

重申目标不是让每个州都搞选区操纵，而是最终将政治因素排除在这个过程之外——因为这正是我们破碎政治体系的核心腐败。但民主党不能单方面解除武装，我们必须直面霸凌，直视他们绝不退缩。

Again, the goal is not for every state to be gerrymandered. The the goal is ultimately to take politics out of this process because it is the rot at the core of our broken political system, but Democrats can't unilaterally disarm. We have to stand up to bullies. We gotta look them in the eye and not blink.

关于这点我想追问，因为推动公平划分选区的声浪很大。许多知名民主党人支持此主张，部分人坚持认为不能效仿共和党的做法。

So I wanted to ask about that because there has been this push for fair maps. A lot of prominent Democrats got behind it. Some of them are sticking with that and saying, no. No. We can't play this game the way Republicans do.

另一些人主张以牙还牙。那些支持无党派重划的民主党人，是否在自缚手脚？这正是州长凯西·霍楚尔今天的表态。

Others are saying we have to fight fire with fire. Were Democrats who embraced a nonpartisan redistricting, were they fighting with a hand tied behind their back? That's what governor, Kathy Hochul said today.

我想说，我为自己所属的政党仍坚守原则、仍对民主制度怀有积极愿景而自豪——我们相信能修复这个制度使其真正服务民众。但绝不能因理想忽视现实：当下有一个政党正在作弊。他们在十年中期重划选区就是作弊。

Well, I just wanna say I I am proud to be a part of a political party that still has principles, that still has a positive vision for what this democracy could be, how we could fix this democracy so it can actually work for regular people. I I am proud of that. But we can't let that vision get in the way of the current reality. And right now, one party is attempting to cheat. By redrawing the maps in the middle of a decade, they are cheating.

就像两支足球队中场休息后，领先方要求为下半场修改规则以锁定胜局——所有人都知道这是赤裸裸的作弊。如果他们作弊，我们就不参与；如果他们作弊，所有规则作废，蓝州就有权反制。但这绝非我们追求的理想图景。

It's like two football teams coming out of the locker room at halftime, and the team that's ahead says they wanna change the rules for the second half so they can win the game. All of us would recognize that as blatant cheating. And if they're gonna cheat, we're not gonna play. And if they're gonna cheat, all rules are off the table, and that means blue states are free to respond with retaliation. But this is not the vision.

要知道，党派之争的恶性循环并非我们所愿。我们最终想要的是每个州、每位美国人都能享有公平的选区划分和公正的选举。

You know, having a descending spiral of partisanship is not what we want. We ultimately want fair maps and fair elections for every state and for every American.

所以，缺席议会每天将被罚款500美元。阿博特声称若有人筹款支付罚款将提起重罪指控。我们该怎么应对？这笔开销我们究竟要怎么处理？

So, you're apparently gonna be fined $500 per missed day of the session. Abbott says he'll bring felony charges if anyone fundraises to cover that. What are we gonna do? What's what's what what are we doing about this expense here?

我和同事们会自行承担这些罚款。需要说明的是，德州众议员属于兼职——我们在立法机构的工作税前月薪仅600美元，这意味着必须靠日常工作才能维持生计。现在我们正放弃日常工作来破坏法定人数。有些同事不得不离开年幼的孩子，还有人要撇下年迈的父母。

Well, my colleagues and I are gonna pay these fines ourselves. And I should say, state representatives in Texas, we're part time. We earn $600 a month before taxes for our work in the legislature, which means we have to have day jobs to make ends meet and to pay our bills. We're leaving those day jobs to to break quorum. We also have colleagues who are leaving young children, some that are leaving aging parents.

这个决定绝非轻率作出，我们清楚将面临经济、政治甚至法律后果。但德州这场权力攫取威胁着共和国的未来，我们甘愿付出这些代价。当然希望阿博特和共和党人能退让，但他们可能不会。你们是否做了某些安排——

So this is not a decision we made lightly, and we knew there were gonna be consequences, financial, political, possibly even legal consequences. But we're willing to pay those because we believe so strongly that this power grab in Texas is a threat to the future of our republic. So, obviously, you hope that Abbott and the Republicans back down, but they may not. Like, what kind of arrangements did you make, did some of

你的同事们是否做好了持续数周甚至数月的准备？

your colleagues make for this to potentially last for not days, not weeks, but potentially months?

我们意识到这可能超过两周，但不愿过多纠结于假设——谁知道两周后局势如何？德州共和党会做什么？特朗普会做什么？蓝州州长们会做什么？

We recognize that, and and we know going in that this could be longer than two weeks. We're trying not to get too lost in the hypotheticals because who knows what will happen in two weeks? Who knows what Texas Republicans are gonna do? What Donald Trump's gonna do? What blue state governors are gonna do?

美国民众又会如何反应？这次破坏法定人数的部分目标就是激发全国行动。勇气确实具有感染力——当人们看到有人挺身而出时，无论是参与志愿服务、发起抗议，还是捐款支持我们的食宿差旅，这些行动都能反击权力攫取。若想守护民主进程，下次选举中必须让这种行动成倍增长。

What the American people are gonna do? Part of the goal of this quorum break was to inspire action across the country. I I do think that courage is is contagious. And I think once people see someone standing up, it makes it easier for them to stand up, whether that is them, volunteering, whether it's them protesting, whether it's donating to this quorum break to help us fund the food and the travel and the lodgings, you know, that is a form of action that can, I think, push back against this kind of power grab? And we're gonna have to see that action multiplied a lot in the next election if we're gonna protect the democratic process and fix this democracy going forward.

塔里科议员，感谢你的到访。祝你好运——无论你现在身在何处。

Representative Talrico, thanks for stopping by. Appreciate it. Good luck wherever you are.

谢谢邀请。

Thanks for having me.

刚才接受采访的是詹姆斯·塔拉里科议员。大家对整个局势怎么看？汤米？

That was representative James Talarico. What do you guys think about this whole situation? Tommy?

我认为我们处境艰难。我是说，即使这次特别会议无法完成，球已经在德克萨斯州滚起来了，因为这些家伙不在城里。阿博特完全可以再召开一次会议。德州的共和党人之前就曾扭转局面，他们实际上并未面临任何政治后果。

I think we're in a tough spot. I mean, the ball is firmly rolling in Texas even if it doesn't get done in this special session because these guys are out of town. Abbott can just call another one. Republicans in Texas have pulled the ship before. They didn't really face any political consequences.

中期选举中的五个席位事关重大。所以我希望我们生活在一个德州选民——跨越政治光谱——会对共和党人更关注他们称之为特别会议的两件事（洪水救济和选区重划）而感到愤怒的世界。他们把选区重划放在首位，没有优先考虑本州的实际需求。但我觉得我们并不生活在这样的世界，也无法以此作为筹码。而且这些议员还有日常工作、家庭和其他责任。

Five seats is a huge deal in the midterms. So I I wish we lived in a world where Texas voters, like, across the political spectrum were outraged by the fact that Republicans are more focused on they they called a special session to do two things, flood relief and redistricting. They put redistricting first. They're not prioritizing the actual needs of their states, but I just don't think we live in that world and have it as a leverage. And these lawmakers have day jobs and, you know, families and obligations.

他们不可能永远逃亡。我不知道，感觉我们处境不妙。

They can't be on the run forever. Like, I don't know. It feels like we're in a bad spot.

他们只需要坚持到十二月。他们不能十二月？现在才八月四日。

They just have to hold out till December. They can't December? It's August 4.

听着。这个——

It's look. The the

三个月？

Three months?

是啊。这非常，就像，这——

Yeah. It's very, like, it's

这些人有日常工作。他们也是普通人。

They guys are day jobs. These are human beings.

这真是种老派又务实的做法。你看，我们废除了真正的阻挠议事，现在有了这些虚拟阻挠议事，所以一切都成了博弈论和策略游戏。但这次是真的——为什么他们不在其他必输的投票中也这么做？因为太难了。你必须实际离开本州。

It's such a, like, old school and practical like, it's like, you know, we got rid of the real filibusters. We have these virtual filibusters, so everything is sort of game theory and gamesmanship. But this is a real like, why is why don't they do this for other votes you're gonna lose? Because it's really hard to do. You have to physically leave the state.

你可能在特别会议结束前都无法回来，而阿博特可以随时再召开一次特别会议。过去德州和其他州发生过很多类似情况，结局各不相同。有时你会得到让步，人们就回来了。

You may not be able to come back till the special session is over, and Abbott can just call another special session. There's a lot of ways these have ended. These have happened in Texas in the past. They've happened in other states in the past. Sometimes you get concessions, and people come back.

有时你的虚张声势会被识破，他们只需等你耗尽耐心。最终人们不得不回家，因为那里有他们牵挂的东西，比如，你知道的，他们的家人。

Sometimes your bluff is called, and they just wait you out. And eventually, people have to get home because that's where they keep things like, you know, their families

孩子们。

Kids.

还有工作与生活。

And jobs and life.

工作问题最棘手，因为这是份兼职——德州议会工作。而且现在他们每天要支付500美元，据说会自掏腰包，因为他威胁说任何接受的资金都算贿赂，这很可能让联邦政府介入。目前联邦政府还无法干预其他州的事务。

The jobs thing is the tough one because it's a part time job, Texas legislature. And also now you're paying $500 a day, which they say they're gonna pay out of their pockets because, you know, he's threatening that any kind of money they take is for bribery, and that's how they could probably get the the feds involved. Right now, they can't get the feds involved in being in the other state right now.

除非唐纳德·特朗普打电话给移民局或他在FBI的好友卡什·帕特尔，这种事我永远不会感到惊讶。

Until Donald Trump's, like, makes a call to ICE or his buddy Cash Patel at the FBI, like, I wouldn't surprise me ever.

贾莱里科对他们正在做的事有什么看法？

What does Jalerico say about what they're

他基本上表示他们在自费承担。所有人都不愿考虑这次特别会议之后的事。他们寄希望于这能制造公众压力，也指望蓝州州长们能站出来威胁报复。但很大程度上只是希望阿博特会退缩——这似乎不太可能。我特意问他：'你们准备好坚持到十二月了吗？'

He's basically like, they're taking it they're paying it themselves. They're all trying not to think past this special session. They're putting a lot of hope on the fact that this is creating public pressure. They're putting a lot of hope on the fact that blue state governors are stepping up to threaten retaliation. But a lot of it is just hoping that Abbott will back down, which doesn't seem particularly likely, and not thinking I asked him specifically, Are you prepared to do this through December?

而他只肯说会坚持到特别会议结束，不愿讨论假设性情况。

And he just wouldn't go beyond saying they're doing it through this special session and not trying to be in hypotheticals.

需要说明的是，我提到十二月是因为他们必须在十二月前重新划分选区，才能赶在2026年中期选举前完成选票等工作。如果能坚持到十二月...但你说得对，三个月时间确实很艰难。

And I should say the reason I mentioned December, the reason December is getting thrown around is they would have to redraw the maps by December in order to get it done in time for the midterms in '26 for the ballots and everything else. So if they could hold out to December, but you're right. It's it's three months. So that's the that's the tough part.

我认为关键在于，他们希望这些OnlyFans账号能开始创收——毕竟这不违法。明确地说，阿博特他...

And then I think, look, the hope is that, you know, this OnlyFans are all starting. It's gonna generate the revenue because that's there's no crime against that. To be clear, like, Abbott Abbott

我想他们确实可以接受。我猜他们也能选择其他工作。

I guess they could take yeah. I guess they could take other jobs.

他们可以选择其他工作。

They could take other jobs.

或者他们可以远程工作。

Or they could work remote.

是的。我相信其中一些人可以远程工作。你必须采用混合工作模式，不管他们实际的本职工作是什么。但就像艾伯特的威胁，你知道，民主党在德州这么干过。里克·佩里当时是州长。各种威胁都有，人们说他们重返议会时会受到惩罚。

Yeah. Some of them, I'm sure, can work remote. You have to have a hybrid work model, whatever their their real day jobs But the the like, Abbott's threat here, you know, Democrats did this in Texas. Rick Perry was the governor. And there are all kinds of threats, and people say they're gonna be punished when they return to the legislature.

但没人说过他们会突然失去工作，或者州长可以篡夺选民权力，突然将人免职。过去这不是可选项，他们现在突然发现这个选项，只是因为司法部长肯·帕克斯顿的一份无约束力的意见——就连肯·帕克斯顿这个疯子都说州长过度解读了这份意见。

But no one said that they could suddenly forfeit their their jobs that or that the governor could usurp the power of the voters and suddenly remove people from office. That wasn't an option in the past that they suddenly discovered because of some nonbinding opinion by attorney general Ken Paxton that even Ken Paxton says the governor is reading who's a lunatic, who even Ken Paxton says the governor is reading too much into.

而且那个威胁——免职威胁——看起来像是在虚张声势。对。我是说，我认为最好的情况是这不会成功，他们总得回家。但不仅没有具有法律约束力的意见支持他能免他们的职，而且他们还得在全部50个选区提出申请，其中一些是非常民主的选区。然后他们还得举行特别选举来替换这些人，所有这些都必须在12月前完成。

And it does seem like that threat, the remove them from office threat, is is a bluff. Yeah. Like, that is not I mean, I I think that the best case for this is not gonna work is they have to get home at some point. But not only is there no binding legal opinion that he can remove them from office, but they would have to file that in all 50 districts, some of which are very democratic districts. And then they would have to hold special elections to to to, you know, replace them, and all this has to get by December.

所以我觉得这完全是胡扯。整个'我们要免你的职'的说法。至于贿赂的重罪指控，谁知道呢？那就会涉及到联邦层面了。但这个

So I think that's pretty bullshit. The whole, like, we're gonna remove you from office thing. And then the felony thing for the bribes, who knows? That that's where you get into the feds. But this

就是帕克斯顿走得更远的地方。对吧？他通过这次十年中期的选区重划走得更远，但他还试图将这种行为定为非法——而破坏法定人数并不违法。他们的所作所为不是犯罪。

is where, like, Paxton is going further. Right? He's going further by doing this mid decade redistricting, but he's also going further by, like, trying to make this illegal when it is not illegal to break quorum. What they're doing is not a crime.

德州最高法院已经对此作出裁决了。

Texas Supreme Court has already decided that.

所以他很沮丧，因为他们做的事不仅历史上站得住脚，而且根本不违法。所以他正在寻找任何可能的借口来起诉这些人。

And so he's frustrated by the fact that what they're doing has been not just is historically justified, but also just not breaking the law. So he's looking for any excuse he can find to try to prosecute these people.

是的。看来民主党最有可能的反击方式就是其他州的民主党人自行采取行动。我们之前稍微讨论过这个。纽森，显然我和汤米跟他谈过，他大致阐述了他的计划，比如可能通过召开特别选举来修改宪法。凯西·霍楚现在表示她可能会尝试采取行动，但似乎她实际上在2027年前都无法有所作为？

Yeah. So it seems like the most likely way for Democrats to fight back is Democrats in other states to do this themselves. We have talked about this a little bit. Newsome, obviously, Tommy and I talked to Newsome about this, and he sort of laid out his plan here, which is, you know, maybe calling a special election to change the constitution. Kathy Hochul is now saying that she might try to do something, though it appears she can't really do anything until 2027?

不。是的。听起来他们无法通过现有程序在2027年前推动任何改革，这对中期选举毫无帮助。

No. Yeah. It doesn't sound like they can do anything through their to get changes through their process would take till 2027, which doesn't help us in the midterms.

没错。凯西·霍楚现在夸下海口说个不停。或许她是对的——如果中期选举前无法实现，但她会为未来继续努力，只是这对中期选举无济于事。然后是JB·普利兹克。

Yeah. So she's she's talking a lot talking a big game, Kathy Hochul. And look, maybe I mean, she she could be right about, yeah, if she can't get it done in the midterms, but they do this, she's gonna go ahead and try to do it for the future, but it's not gonna help with the midterms. Right. And then JB Pritzker.

是啊。这个确实棘手。

Yeah. Look. That's a tough one.

我认为我们真正的选择是加文·纽森。我们讨论过他主动出击的方案。伊利诺伊州有机会争取几个席位，马里兰州可能有一个席位。州长韦斯·摩尔正在考虑是否要游说州议会重新划分选区以增加我们的席位。

I think our real options are Gavin Newsom. We talked about the options he has to go on offense. There's a chance to pick up some seats in Illinois. There's maybe one seat in Maryland. I think governor Wes Moore is deciding whether to go to his legislature to talk to them about trying to change the maps and get us another seat.

但还有个更严重的长期问题。我们的朋友布莱恩·泰勒·科恩前几天采访了民主党律师马克·埃利亚斯，他基本解释了这点。关键在于最高法院正在审查《投票权法案》第二条是否违宪。如果被推翻，共和党可能重划数十个国会选区，尤其会取消南方这些黑人占多数的选区。这意味着像阿拉巴马州可能从5共和党2民主党席位变成7个共和党席位。如果最高法院裁决不利，我们将面临极其可怕的巨大威胁。

But there's a long term problem that could be even bigger. Like, our buddy Brian Tyler Cohen interviewed a Democratic lawyer named Mark Elias a couple days ago where he kinda laid this all out. And the gist, though, is the Supreme Court is reviewing whether section two of the Voting Rights Act violates the constitution. And if it does, if it gets struck down, Republicans could redraw dozens of congressional districts and get rid of, like, all of these black majority districts, especially in the South, which means you have a state like Alabama that could go from having five Republicans, two Democrats, to just seven Republican districts. So there's, like, this massive, scary, scary threat looming down the pike here if the Supreme Court goes the wrong way.

是的。长期挑战在于民主党控制的州议会数量远少于共和党。

Yeah. The long term challenge here is that Democrats just, don't control as many state legislatures

看看德州的情况，某种程度上是得益于特朗普最近在拉丁裔选民中的成功，他们据此重新规划了选区划分。

as Republicans do. And look. Mean, what's happening in Texas is kind of enabled by don't Donald Trump's recent success with Latino voters and their ability to rethink how to draw those districts based on that success.

这可能成为乐观的理由，也可能说明他们误判了形势。我记得和丹讨论过——现在都记不清和谁讨论过什么了。这些选区在总统大选时是特朗普领先10到15个点，但即使在2022年中期选举中，贝托·奥鲁尔克输给阿博特时——

And now that that might be a reason for optimism or that they have miscalculated. I think Dan and I were talking about this. I can't remember who I talked to about anything anymore. But, you know, they these are, like, Trump plus 10, Trump plus 15 districts, but that is in the presidential election and in the midterms. Even in the midterms, Dan was pointing this out that Beto lost to Abbott in in 2022, Beto O'Rourke.

他仍以超过卡玛拉·哈里斯2024年得票率15到20个百分点的优势赢得拉丁裔选票。所以这可能会让他们在中期选举中栽跟头。但无论如何，如果这种趋势全国蔓延，情况就非常糟糕了。

He still won the Latino vote by, like, fifteen, twenty points more than than Kamala Harris did in 2024. So, you know, they they it could screw them for the midterms. But either way, if you're starting to go nationwide, it's it's pretty bad.

是的。我是说，看看。更广泛地说，他们还能重新划分选区地图。如果他们试图过度操纵选区划分，基于2024年的预测或对选民情况理解不足，试图为自己争取过多席位，结果可能适得其反——在中期选举中若出现我们期待的政治浪潮，他们那些原本共和党领先3%、5%、7%的席位可能突然翻转，导致他们输掉一些竞选。

Yeah. I mean, look. And also, more broadly, they can redraw the maps. They can also accidentally draw Republicans out of their seat as if if they try to over gerrymander, try to make too many seats for themselves based on a projection for 2024 or just not understanding the electorate, all of a sudden, in a wave election, which hopefully we can generate in the midterms, all of a sudden, they they got a little too cocky and a little too greedy, thought they could draw themselves a couple extra seats. And then those those those Republican plus three, plus five, plus seven seats all of a sudden swing, and they've lost some races.

关键在于，更深层的问题是民主党人也过于集中在少数地区。我们在这些密集区域拥有巨大优势，而共和党在农村地区虽保持较多但较微弱的多数，这使得共和党更有能力绘制对自己有利的选区地图。

Mean, the the deeper problem here is Democrats live in too too few places too. We have really big, big majorities in these concentrated areas, and Republicans have still large but slimmer majorities in tons of rural places, and that gives Republicans more of an ability to draw these favorable maps.

但具体到德克萨斯州，新提议的选区划分将使特朗普领先10个百分点的选区从25个增加到30个。这幅度很大。而且就在德州，拜登在2020年以17个百分点优势赢得拉丁裔选民，而2024年特朗普反超10个百分点。

But in Texas specifically, I think the new proposed districts make 30 districts places where Trump won by 10 points Yeah. Which is up from 25. So that's a lot. And also just in Texas, Biden won Latinos by 17 points in 2020. Trump won by 10 in 2024.

这是个巨大转变。如果没有特朗普在选票顶端，可能不会出现这样的逆转。我完全同意这点。但我认为德州通过这次选区操纵似乎得到了很好的保护，形势很严峻。

So it's a big swing. Probably will not swing like that without Donald Trump at the top of the ballot. I totally agree with that. But I do think in Texas, it feels like they're pretty well protected with this version of the gerrymander, and it's tough.

我不认为...中期选举不会有太大不同，但...我们拭目以待吧。

I don't I don't see. Not for for midterms is much different, but We'll see. But we'll see.

特朗普领先10个百分点很难翻盘。

Trump plus 10 is tough.

特朗普...嗯。两个...不对，三个选区是特朗普+10，两个是+15，或者反过来。15个点的确实很难，但10个点在中期选举...我觉得...

Trump yeah. Well, two yeah. Three are Trump plus ten, two are Trump plus 15, or it might be the other way. The fifteens seem pretty tough, but the tens, 10 in a midterm. I Yeah.

丹说过他认为这个差距是可以克服的。

Dan was saying he thinks that could be overcome.

好吧。我愿意保持希望，丹。《美国播客》由ZipRecruiter为您呈现。有时候选择太多反而让人无所适从。

Alright. I'll take I'll take hopeful, Dan. Pods of America is brought to you by ZipRecruiter. Sometimes it can be overwhelming to have too many options. Yeah.

我去过芝士蛋糕工厂餐厅，那菜单长得能看好几天。

I've been to the Cheesecake Factory. That that menu goes on for days.

你知道吗？我爱每一页的内容。

And you know what? I love every page.

知道大家想要什么吗？你们需要精选。明白我的意思吗？所以我们

Know what everyone wants? You want curation. You know what I mean? So we're

不是我们不够

not we don't have enough of

今天不行。我不

that today. I don't

想要100样东西。我只要五个最佳选项，然后选一个就行。如果你是正在招聘的企业主，道理也一样。候选人太多会让人应接不暇，但你很幸运。ZipRecruiter现在能让你快速主动找到并联系最合适的人选。

want a 100 things. I want five of the best options, and then I pick one. And the same applies if you're a business owner who's hiring. It can be overwhelming to have too many candidates to sort through, but you're but you're in luck. ZipRecruiter now gives you the power to proactively find and connect with the best ones quickly.

怎么做到？通过他们创新的简历数据库。现在你可以免费试用，访问ziprecruiter.com/crooked。ZipRecruiter的简历数据库通过高级筛选，快速为你的职位锁定顶尖候选人。看到特别感兴趣的候选人？

How? Through their innovative resume database. And right now, you can try it for free at ziprecruiter.com/crooked. ZipRecruiter's resume database quickly identifies top candidates for your roles through advanced filtering. See a candidate you're really interested in?

你可以立即解锁他们的联系方式。每月新增32万份简历，意味着你能触达更多潜在雇员，更快填补职位空缺。难怪ZipRecruiter是G2评分第一的招聘网站。我们

You can unlock their contact info instantly. 320,000 new resumes are added monthly, which means you can reach more potential hires and fill roles faster. No wonder ZipRecruiter is the number one rated hiring site based on g two. We've used

在Quicken Media这里就用过ZipRecruiter。

ZipRecruiter here at Quicken Media.

当然

Sure

用过。找到了优秀候选人。我们找得快，聘得也快。这非常重要，因为筛选、寻找候选人会耗费大量时间，拖慢公司运转。

have. Found great candidates. We found them fast. We hired them quickly. And that's really important because you can spend a lot of time looking for vetting, sourcing candidates, and it can bog down your organization.

你想快速招揽优秀人才，ZipRecruiter能助你一臂之力。跳过候选人过多的困扰，转而用ZipRecruiter简化你的招聘流程。看看为何五分之四在ZipRecruiter发布职位的雇主能在首日就获得优质候选人。只需访问这个专属网址：ziprecruiter.com/crooked。

You wanna get great people in fast, and ZipRecruiter can help you do it. Skip the candidate overload. Instead, streamline your hiring with ZipRecruiter. See why four out of five employers who post on ZipRecruiter get a quality candidate within the first day. Just go to this exclusive web address, ziprecruiter.com/crooked.

现在就去试试吧，免费体验。ziprecruiter.com/crooked。再说一次，网址是ziprecruiter.com/crooked。ZipRecruiter，最智能的招聘方式。

Go now. Try it for free. Ziprecruiter.com/crooked. Again, that's ziprecruiter.com/crooked. Zip recruiter, the smartest way to hire.

其他民主党竞选新闻显示，我们总爱抱怨的那些筹款短信和邮件不仅极其烦人，除非你是抽取大额佣金的大型咨询公司，否则它们还可能极其低效。上周末，独立数据记者Adam Bonica在《On Data and Democracy》Substack上的调查发现，大多数这类垃圾邮件背后是一家名为Mothership Strategies的公司，该公司由民主党国会竞选委员会前数字部门员工创立。根据Adam对联邦选举委员会文件的分析，自2018年以来，Mothership从个人捐赠者处收取了6.78亿美元，其中至少1.59亿美元被他们作为‘咨询费’收入囊中。更令人沮丧的是，这6.78亿美元中仅有1100万美元实际流向了竞选活动、候选人或民主党委员会。

In other Democratic campaign news, it turns out that all those fundraising texts and emails we love to complain about aren't just incredibly annoying. They also may be incredibly ineffective unless you're a big consulting firm that takes a huge cut of the money. Over the weekend, an investigation from independent data journalist Adam Bonica at the On Data and Democracy Substack found that a single firm, Mothership Strategies, founded by former digital staffers for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, is behind most of these spam packs. According to Adam's review of FEC filings, Mothership has taken in $678,000,000 from individual donors since 2018, and they've pocketed at least a 159,000,000 of that, reporting it as, quote, consulting fees. Even more depressing, of that $678,000,000 only 11,000,000 has gone to actual campaigns, candidates, or Democratic committees.

相当于每美元只贡献了2美分。我们联系Mothership询问此事，得到以下回应：‘这篇Substack文章完全不准确，包含大量关于Mothership及我们客户的虚假误导性陈述。事实是Mothership通过帮助民主党竞选、政治行动委员会、议题倡导组织等筹集关键资金。我们已直接为数十个竞选活动和成员关联的政治行动委员会客户筹集超过4亿美元。’

That's 2¢ on the dollar. We reached out to Mothership to ask about this and got the following quote. This sub stack is completely inaccurate and contains numerous false and misleading claims about Mothership and our clients. The truth is that Mothership supports democratic campaigns, PACs, issue advocacy organizations, and more in raising critical funds. We have directly raised over $400,000,000 for dozens of campaigns and member connected PAC clients.

此外，联邦选举委员会记录中标注为支付给Mothership的资金大部分是过账资金，公司实际支付给了客户的其他供应商，包括支持其程序化工作的广告合作伙伴。刚读完这份声明，但似乎与Substack文章中的任何内容都不冲突。

Further, a majority of the funds that are reported by the FEC as going to Mothership are pass through funds the company actually pays to our clients' other vendors, including advertising partners to support their programmatic work. So just reading the statement now, but but doesn't seem to conflict with anything in the actual Substack piece.

我觉得他们可能是在纠结多少资金作为公司利润，多少是经公司转付。但重点是，所有这些钱只是在延续筹款循环，这才是问题所在。就像我几周前做的一期节目说的——为什么当你反复回复‘停止’后，这些筹款短信还是停不下来？我今天已经回复了五次‘停止’。

I mean, I think what they're probably quibbling with is how much goes to the company as profits versus what is paid through the company. But look. The broader point is that, like, all this money just goes to perpetuate the fundraising cycle, and that is the problem. It's like I did a just stepping back. I did a a a episode on this a few weeks back and why it's impossible to get the fundraising text to stop when you when you text stop every I've text stopped five times today.

你们今天收到轰炸了吗？我大概收到了10条筹款请求。

Have you guys gotten a flood today? I'd say I've gotten, like, 10 fundraising solicitations.

简直没完没了。刚收到一条写着‘约翰，我是跨性别者’。

It's relentless. Just got one that said, John, I'm trans.

我收到一条写着‘约翰，我是’

I got one that said, said, John, I'm

‘我是跨性别者。好吧。’

I'm trans. Okay.

所以当你按下停止键却从未停止的原因是，那会将你的号码从该竞选活动或超级包列表中移除。并不存在所谓的‘禁止骚扰注册表’或通用的‘禁止骚扰名单’。因此，如果你一生中哪怕只给一位候选人捐过款，你的信息就可能进入一个被卖给顾问或数据经纪人的名单，他们可以无限次地反复出售你的信息和名单，这就是为什么感觉（或许事实就是）几乎不可能从这些名单中脱身。我认为问题在于，当你向政党领袖抱怨这些筹款策略多么烦人且有害时，他们只会耸耸肩说‘但这有效’。然而这篇文章指出，它们其实无效。

So the reason it never stops when you press stop is because that removes your number from that campaign or super packs list. There's no, like, do not spam registry or, like, universal do not spam list. And so if you've donated even to, like, one candidate in your life, that can go into a list that gets sold to consultants or data brokers, and they can sell your list and your information over and over and over again in perpetuity, which is why it is can feel like and maybe is impossible to get off these lists. And I think the problem is, like, when you press party leaders about how annoying and damaging these fundraising tactics are, they just kinda shrug their shoulders and say, well, they work. But what this article suggests is that they don't work.

这些方式效率极低。大量资金流入，但极少用于实际事业。当然，Mothership Strategies公司的人会争论他们与其他供应商之间的分成比例，但所有这些钱最终都用于更多的筹款活动。明白吗？真正用于政治事业的资金其实少得可怜。

They're incredibly inefficient. An enormous amount of money goes in, but very little goes out to the causes. And, obviously, the people at Mothership Strategies kind of quibble about how much is going to them versus other vendors, But all of this money is going to do more fundraising. Right? It's like not a lot of it is going towards the actual political causes.

而且他们在声明中并未提及这一点，

And they're not saying that in the statement, by the

他们并非试图辩称实际投入更多，只是强调钱并非全进了他们的口袋。根据声明所述，资金也流向了其他供应商——至少声明是这么说的。

way, that they're not trying to argue that actually more is going. They're just saying it's not all going to us. It's all going to some vendors as well. Or if that's what at least that's what the statement says.

或许其中部分资金流向了广告并被错误统计。谁知道呢？他们声称报道严重失实，我们拭目以待。但退一步说，这种运营政党的方式简直愚蠢透顶。

Or maybe some share of it is going to advertising and is being counted in the wrong way. Who knows? We'll get you know, they're they're claiming this is largely inaccurate. We'll see. But, like, stepping back, this is a stupid way to run a fucking party.

对吧？假设实际支出比文章声称的更多，或者他在某些方面重复计算了。首先，别指望最终结论会是‘哇，这其实很棒’。

Right? Like, let's say more of it is going out than this article claims or some way in which he's he's over counting something. Right? First of all, don't think you're gonna land at the end be like, wow. It's actually really good.

嗯。暂且不论这个。有报告显示民主党将筹款资金分配给安全席位的比例远高于共和党。原因之一在于筹款已演变成一种焦土策略——对民主党人进行无休止的轰炸式募捐。在这种环境下，更具魅力的形象、更煽动性的对手，

Mhmm. But put that aside. Is there was this report that came out that Democrats send a far greater share of their fundraising dollars to safe seats than Republicans do. And one reason is that fundraising has become this sort of scorched earth kind of hammering Democrats over and over and over and over again with requests. And in that kind of environment, more charismatic figures, more sensational opponents.

明白吗？资金分配会变得缺乏战略考量。当然，群发募捐短信后收到‘发出10万条短信，进账4万美元’的报表，反复操作确实能累积可观金额。但代价是这群高度参与、近十年来一直资助抵抗运动的民主党人如今精疲力尽、愤怒不已，对整个流程充满不信任。

Right? Less strategic decisions are gonna be made about money. And, yes, I am sure that sending out a blast of fundraising text, you get a report back saying, like, we sent out text, a 100,000 came in or $40,000 came in. You do that again and again and again, and it starts to become real money. But the cost is that this big group of hyper engaged Democrats who have been funding the resistance for almost a decade now are exhausted and angry and mistrustful of this entire process.

这些人不仅是你们想要的捐款者，更是会在社交媒体上为你们发声、信任你们、信任整个流程的核心群体。而这一切现在变得如此 cynical（愤世嫉俗）。

And these are the people you want not just to donate to you, but to advocate for you on their social media, to believe in you, to believe in the process, and all of this is just so cynical.

是啊。我认为问题在于传统直邮方式存在实体成本——邮票、信封、纸张都需要真金白银。

Yeah. I mean, I think the the problem is with direct mail, like the old school way, there would be literal costs. You'd have stamps. You'd envelopes. You have paper.

对吧？而且只需要狂轰滥炸般地发送一堆包含文本数字、或邮件、或手机地址的文件。这几乎是零成本的。所以你可以反复不断地骚扰这些人。再说，我们虽然不清楚报道中的顶层数据，但有个例子在我看来尤为恶劣。

Right? And with just hammering, like, a file full of text numbers and or or emails or cell phone addresses. Like, there's zero cost to that. And so you can just go after these people over and over and over again. And, again, we don't know about the top line numbers in the story, but there's one example that seemed pretty egregious to me.

这恰恰暴露了其中的资源浪费和自我交易问题——有个叫‘终结公民联盟’的超级政治行动委员会（我肯定收到过他们无数短信）。显然，这个委员会是由‘母舰策略’公司的两位负责人创建的。于是乎，‘终结公民联盟’自然就雇佣‘母舰策略’来操刀他们的短信、邮件和筹款活动。

It just that got at the the waste and the self dealing here, which is there is a super pack called nCitizens United, which I've definitely gotten Tons gonna say. Right? Yeah. So apparently, that pack was created by two principles from Mothership Strategies. So, of course, N Citizens United then hires Mothership Strategies to do their text and email and fundraising.

到头来，‘终结公民联盟’委员会从善良民众那里筹集了大量资金，其中大部分却流向了创始人的腰包作为服务费。这实际上对任何人都没好处。而且就像你说的，这不仅仅是惹人厌烦、损害民主党形象的问题——你伤害的是那些最关心政治、最愿意掏钱的支持者。

So at the end of the day, like, N Citizens United pack raises a ton of money from, like, well meaning people that largely goes to pay the guys who started the pack for the services. And so that doesn't really benefit anyone. And it's also like you said, you are it's not just that you're annoying people and and harming the Democratic Party brand. You're hurting the people who care enough or care the most, who are willing to

捐款的人。你还抬高了期望值——正因为这个名字让我想到这点。你们打着‘终结公民联盟’的旗号，却根本不可能终结公民联盟！除非最高法院改组。

give money. You're also raising expect just it made me think of this because of the name. You're raising expectations for people who have no like, end Citizens United. You're not gonna end Citizens United? Change the Supreme Court.

没错。

Right.

这才是关键。你们只能干等着，必须等到整个最高法院换血才有机会推翻公民联盟案。所以这个委员会，还有他们在Substack上列出的所有政治行动委员会——我基本都认得。

That's what's gonna happen. You're gonna wait around, we're gonna have to get a whole new court to to have a chance to end Citizens United. So, like, this this that one, all of the ones that they listed, all the packs they listed in the substack are all I've like, I recognize most of them.

它们都在我们手机里狂轰滥炸。

They're all on our phones.

无休无止。

They're all Constantly.

是啊。而且全都荒谬透顶，那些筹款说辞听起来可笑，邮件内容也荒唐至极，简直疯了。

Yeah. And I And they're all ridiculous, and the fundraising pitches all sound ridiculous. The emails sound ridiculous. It's like, it's crazy.

顺便说句，在铺天盖地的短信中，肯定也有我最终愿意捐款的合法竞选请求，但现在我不得不全部忽略。因为你根本分不清哪些可靠——每有一美元流入‘母舰策略’，谁知道有多少虚假短信正骗走那些被特朗普吓坏、想帮忙、看MSNBC、积极参政却通过随机号码在手机上捐款的单纯老年人的积蓄？

And by the way, like, I am sure in the deluge of text we're getting, there are legitimate requests from campaigns I'll either want to or will ultimately donate to, but I have to ignore all of these messages. Because first of all, you don't know if they're reliable or not. You don't know if they're true. Right? Like, for every dollar that's going to mothership strategies, who knows how many fake tests are going to kind of guileless senior citizens who have been horrified by Trump and and want to help and are watching MSNBC and are super engaged and and just donating on their phone to random numbers.

这是个愚蠢又荒谬的体系，更多民主党人士需要停止参与其中。或许这需要一点网络效应，类似集体行动困境的解决方式。但必须找到替代方案，包括民主党人合作探索其他触及选民的方式——减少信息轰炸，避免赢家通吃、所有人无休止相互攻击的模式。

It's a it's a stupid and ridiculous system, and more Democratic politicians need to stop participating in this process. And maybe it requires a little bit of there is, a a little bit of a, like, a network effect and sort of a try like, a a sort of collective action problem. But there has to be some alternative, including Democrats working together to figure out some other way of reaching voters that's less of a deluge and less sort of a of a kind of, like, winner takes all, everyone going after everybody all the time.

没错。我和DNC主席肯·马丁讨论过这个问题——我在YouTube采访他时谈过，欢迎观看《Pod Save America》YouTube频道。在新闻爆出前，他就表现出...

Yeah. And I think that and I I talked a little bit with Ken Martin about this, the chairman of the DNC when I interviewed him for YouTube. Check it out. Pod Save America YouTube. And he does seem like he seemed and this was before the story came out.

...他想要更公开谴责这些行为。记得哈里斯竞选团队，我听说...

But he seemed like he wants to do more to call them out. And remember the Harris campaign I heard

他对此非常愤怒。

he's pissed about this.

是的，他气坏了。我跟他谈及此事时他怒火中烧。而且2024年哈里斯竞选团队确实也点名批评过某些垃圾邮件包。

He's pissed about it. Yeah. So he was very pissed when I when he I talked to him about it. And also I think the Harris campaign in 2024 did call out some of these spam packs as well.

有些邮件包简直恶劣至极。比如每当玛乔丽·泰勒·格林参选，总有候选人能筹到2000万美元，最后全进了变相利己的咨询公司口袋。

Yeah. I mean, there's spam packs that are, like, horribly spammy. Right? Like, whenever someone's running, it's Marjorie Taylor Greene. There's always some candidate that'll raise, like, $20,000,000, and it'll all go to consulting services that somehow benefit them.

还有些组织会发送与政客毫无关联的照片来群发短信邮件，这纯属掠夺行为。有人被诱导陷入循环捐款的陷阱——共和党那边更恶劣，他们对待捐款人的方式令人作呕。

Then there's also packs that will send out texts and emails that include photos of politicians that are in no way connected to the pack. Like, that's really predatory. There are people that get locked into recurring donations in really deceptive ways. Like, what's sad about this is it's even worse on the Republican side. Like, what they do to their donors is discussing.

这就是特朗普的一贯作风。

This is everything Trump does. Everything that Trump does.

但采用欺诈手段的候选人必须断绝与这类公司合作。要明白你们正把线上捐款人推进欺诈与利益输送的生态链，这是在伤害自己人。另外这篇报道指出，Mothership Strategies公司因与民主党高层的关系受到庇护，而官员们辩称'战术有效又能筹款，最终皆大欢喜'。

But I do think the candidates working with firms that do abusive practices need to cut ties with them. And they also need to recognize that you end up feeding your online donors into this ecosystem and churn of fraud and self dealing, and you're harming your own people. Totally. And I also think, like, the the article this article claims that this firm, Mothership Strategies, is kind of insulated by its connections with senior elected officials in the Democratic Party. And those officials say, know, basically, it's no big deal because the tactics work, and we need the money, and everyone benefits at the end.

我参加过你们的高层闭门会议，亲耳听到这种论调——他们耸肩说'反正奏效，比起人生其他烦恼，骚扰短信算什么'。这种态度极其恶劣。

And, like, I've been in meetings with you guys where we heard that directly from top officials in the party. They're off the record conversations. We're not gonna name names, but it's sort of like a shrug, like, well, it works. And, know, if an annoying text is the worst thing in your life, like, you know, you got bigger problems. And I just think, like, that is bad.

我们必须认真对待这件事，不能敷衍了事。而且，我的建议是

We need to take this seriously and not brush it off. And, like, my advice It

听起来这方法行不通。

sounds like it doesn't work.

嗯，没错。我给听众的建议是，永远不要给发短信给你的人捐款，或者你

Well, right. And my advice to listeners is, like, never give to someone that texts you or you

想念你。

miss you.

永远不要。如果你关心

Ever. If you care about

某项事业或候选人，先做调研，访问他们的官网直接捐赠。让这些短信募捐变得效率低下直至消失。是的，确实如此。

a cause or a candidate, research it, go to their website, give directly. Make these texts so inefficient that they go away. Yes. For sure.

是啊。我...我实在...话说有人会通过这种短信捐款吗？这太难想象了，我都不认识这样的人。

Yeah. I I can't yeah. Is anybody that's what's also hard to like, I don't know anybody that's donating via these texts.

因为上当的都是老年人。

Because it's it's old senior citizens.

确实。

It's yeah.

本节目由BetterHelp赞助播出。如今似乎到处都充斥着各种建议——冰浴、感恩日记、屏幕戒断。但你怎么知道哪些真正适合自己？面对互联网上关于心理健康与幸福生活的信息轰炸，要辨别真伪并采取正确行动实属不易。

This is an ad by BetterHelp. These days, it feels like there's advice for everything. Cold plunges, gratitude journals, screen detoxes. But how do you know what actually works for you? With the Internet and information overload about mental health and wellness, it it can be a struggle to know what's true and what actions to take these days.

借助可信资源和与专业治疗师实时交流，您能获得个性化建议并突破信息迷雾。心理治疗很棒。我从未想过自己会接受治疗，但几年前尝试后，现在非常喜欢。与人倾诉确实大有裨益——毕竟我们每个人都背负着许多。

Using trusted resources and talking to live therapists can get you personalized recommendations and help you break through the noise. Therapy is great. Never thought I would go to therapy, and then I did a couple years ago, and now I love it. It's really helpful to talk to someone. There's a lot going on for all of us.

即使您不认为自己需要治疗，也可能从中受益。BetterHelp的妙处在于无需亲临诊所，在家就能连线30,000多名治疗师。作为全球最大在线心理治疗平台，BetterHelp已服务超5,000,000用户，实时咨询平均评分达4.9分（满分5分），基于1,700,000+客户评价。

Even if you don't think you need therapy, you could probably benefit from it. BetterHelp's perfect for this because you don't even have to go to a therapist's office. You could just do it online from your home with over 30,000 therapists. BetterHelp is the world's largest online therapy platform, having served over 5,000,000 people globally. It works with an average rating of 4.9 out of five for a live session based on over 1,700,000 client reviews.

操作便捷，点击按钮即可开启治疗，轻松融入忙碌生活。您还可随时更换治疗师。作为全球最大在线治疗供应商，BetterHelp提供多元化的心理健康专家资源。立即通过BetterHelp倾诉吧！听众首月可享9折优惠，访问betterhelp.com/psa。

Convenient too, you can join a session with a therapist at the click of a button, helping you fit therapy into your busy life. Plus, you can switch therapists at any time. As the largest online therapy provider in the world, BetterHelp can provide access to mental health professionals with a diverse variety of expertise. Talk it out with BetterHelp. Our listeners get 10% off their first month at betterhelp.com/psa.

网址是betterhelp.com/psa。话说特朗普迄今违背了太多竞选承诺，多到难以计数，但有个承诺特别值得关注。您或许记得他在2024年竞选期间反复强调这类主张——

That's betterhelp.com/psa. So, at this point, Trump has broken so many campaign promises. It's hard to keep track, but there's one in particular we wanted to flag. You might remember Trump saying a lot of things like this during the twenty twenty four campaign.

我今天要郑重宣布：在特朗普政府领导下，联邦政府将全额支付——或强制保险公司支付——所有女性试管婴儿治疗费用。我们将承担这笔费用。我们正在为此买单。想要吗？所有需要治疗的美国人都能享受。

I'm announcing today in a major statement that under the Trump administration, your government will pay for or your insurance company will be mandated to pay for all costs associated with IVF treatment, fertilization for women. We are going to be paying for that treatment. So we are paying for that treatment. Ordering want it? All for all Americans that get it.

所有有需求的美国民众。哦，我必须谈谈试管婴儿。作为试管婴儿之父——我就是试管婴儿之父——所以我要听听这个问题。

All Americans that need it. Oh, I wanna talk about IVF. The father of IVF. I'm the father of IVF, so I wanna hear this question.

那段发言始终透着诡异...令人不安。关于试管婴儿的承诺。我记得当时就觉得不对劲。《华盛顿邮报》周日报道称，特朗普政府不打算强制医保覆盖生育治疗和试管婴儿费用，既不会将其纳入奥巴马医改，也不会提供政府补贴来降低费用。

That was always so weird. So scary. IVF thing. I remember that any sense. So on Sunday, the Washington Post reported that the Trump administration does not plan to require health insurance to cover fertility treatments and IVF, nor have it mandated in Obamacare, nor provide government subsidies to make the procedures more affordable.

白宫发言人向邮报表示，特朗普政府"比任何前任都更致力于运用行政权力兑现承诺"。去年调查显示，八分之一女性或其伴侣需要生育治疗才能怀孕，但仅十分之一获得治疗。全美约2%新生儿通过试管婴儿技术诞生。您认为特朗普漠视这个承诺会自食其果吗？

A White House spokesperson told the Post that the Trump administration is, quote, committed like none before it to using its authorities to deliver on this pledge. So one survey from last year, one in eight women or their partner said they needed some form of fertility treatments in order to get pregnant, but only one in ten had received it, And about two percent of all babies born in The US are a result of IVF specifically. You think Trump ignores this promise at his at his own peril?

确实如此。许多民众对此极为关切，政治代价是累积的——当谎言突破临界点时...顺便科普下，试管婴儿费用高得离谱。

Yeah. I do. I think a lot of people care deeply about this, and I think the political cost is cumulative. Like, there's a critical mass of lies like this. And just for those who don't know, IVF is insanely expensive.

单周期平均费用1.4万至2.5万美元（因地而异），多数患者需多次尝试，总费用可能达3万、5万甚至7.5万美元。这对很多人遥不可及，但追求的目标非同小可——这是在创造生命啊。

The average cost of a cycle is 14,000 to $25,000 depending on where you live in this country. Many patients have to do multiple cycles, so you could be talking $30.50, $75,000. And that is just way out of reach for a lot of people, but it's not a small thing you're trying to get. Right? Like, this is about having a child.

对吧？这对人们来说既痛苦又至关重要。我认为政界许多人对这一承诺持怀疑态度，因为时机显得过于算计且成本高昂。但对许多选民而言，这可能是他们唯一负担得起试管婴儿治疗、实现生育梦想的希望。这个改变人生的重大承诺落空，绝非小事一桩。

Right? This is, like, deeply painful and important to people. And I think a lot of folks in the political world were skeptical of this promise because the timing of cynical was and how expensive it was. But for a lot of people, like a lot of voters heard this, and this was their only hope of ever being able to afford IVF and potentially having a baby. And this is a life changing, massive broken promise that is not a small thing.

这不是能轻易忘记的事，对某些人的人生而言意义重大。我认为这激怒了许多人。比如《Flagrant》播客主持人安德鲁·舒尔茨就谈到，他和妻子曾经历试管婴儿治疗，某种程度上他算是单一议题选民，这件事对他至关重要。

It's not something you'll forget. It's not, you know, insignificant to someone's life. And I think it is outraging a lot of people. And we saw, like, Andrew Schultz, the host of the Flagrant podcast. Like, he has talked about how he and his wife went through IVF, how this was he was sort of like a single issue voter in some ways, and this was really important to him.

他上周末还在社交媒体发声——很多人正感受到深刻的伤害与背叛。

He was posting about this over the weekend. Like, a lot of people are profoundly hurt and betrayed.

这还显得极其虚伪。多数政客的失信会说'我们努力过，提交了法案但未通过'或'尝试过行政手段'。比如二月份他们发布过行政命令，要求联邦机构在五六十天内汇报降低试管婴儿费用的方案——但期限早过了，杳无音信。

It's also, like, extremely cynical. Not It's like it's a broken promise where a lot of politicians' broken promise is like, well, we tried, and we sent a bill to congress, and it didn't work out, or we tried to do some executive action. Like, back in February, they released you know, an executive order in action or a proclamation or something that was it was directing all of the federal agencies to come back in fifty or sixty days and and let the president know what they could do to make IVF more affordable. But those days have come and gone. Nothing.

再没任何后续。二月份那个行动纯粹是为了制造'特朗普政府要解决这个问题'的新闻标题。直到《华盛顿邮报》打电话询问，我们才知根本毫无进展。

Haven't heard anything about it. It was basically just in it was done in February just to get a headline that the Trump administration was gonna do something about it. And then until the Washington Post called them up and asked them about it, we heard nothing.

没错，当时就显得很虚伪。这和小费免税的承诺如出一辙，都是他为争取更广泛选民群体——超越传统共和党联盟——而做出的承诺。

Yeah. Look, it was it was cynical at the time. Right? And it it was sort of along the lines of the promise on no tax on tips. It was on the line of sort of some of the other promises he was making to try to appeal to a broader beyond the Republican coalition that had existed.

但这个承诺实在欠考虑。试管婴儿费用高昂，强制保险公司承保影响重大。而且在右翼内部存在争议，许多反堕胎的共和党人反对试管婴儿技术。

But this was such a kind of half baked promise, right? IVF is incredibly expensive. It would be a big deal if you mandated that insurance companies cover it. It is also controversial on the right. There are a lot of anti abortion Republicans who are opposed to IVF.

这件事的导火索是

This story was kicked off

正因如此

That's why

阿拉巴马州一项裁决突然质疑该州试管婴儿合法性，危及女性获取该技术的权利。这引发强烈反对，造成严重损害——正是法院堕胎裁决的自然结果。特朗普瞬间陷入了这场舆论风暴。

it's of a ruling in Alabama that suddenly called the possibility of IVF into question in that state and jeopardized the ability of women to access IVF if they wanted it. And it was extremely unpopular. It was extremely damaging. It was the natural consequence of the court's abortion ruling. All And of a sudden, Trump faced this terrible news cycle.

于是他说，我是我是我是试管婴儿之父，管他什么意思。我要确保每个想要试管婴儿的人都能得到。即便对政策制定者来说，这也是个难题。比如，你们报销多少个周期？如何强制执行？

And so he said, I'm the I'm the I'm the dad of IVF, whatever the fuck that means. And I'm gonna make sure everybody can anybody who wants IVF can get IVF. Even, like, for policymakers, it's a difficult question. How like, how many cycles do you cover? How do you mandate this?

对吧？这既昂贵又重要，是个棘手的政策。结果他就这么半吊子地抛出承诺拉选票，根本没打算兑现。现在就是这样的结局。

Right? Like, it's a there's it's expensive, and, like, it's important, and it's it's a hard policy. Right? Like and and he just sort of went off half cocked to win these votes, and they had no intention of following through on it. And this is the end result.

包括承诺公布爱泼斯坦文件也是同样套路——他绝不会公布的。正如汤米所说，很多人原以为这些承诺会改变他们的生活，结果全是空头支票。

And it's this, it's a whole bunch of other issues where he's done the exact same thing. By the way, I think part of it is the promise to release the Epstein files. He's not going to release the Epstein files. All these promises that he made, he had no intention to solve, but I do think it to Tommy's point, like, a lot of people, this was something that was gonna change their lives, and it's just not happening.

刚才播放的片段里，我记得是在福克斯新闻乔治亚州镇民大会上。他们包装成女性专题会，能听到哈里斯·福克纳（应该是这个名字）那种令人难以置信的轻信态度。谁都知道那个声明是胡扯。

In that last clip we played, I remember I remember watching that. It was a Fox News town hall in Georgia. They they build it as, like, a women's town hall. You could hear Harris Faulkner, I think her name there, just, like, so unbelievably credulous. Everyone knew that that announcement was bullshit.

账目根本对不上，他们根本负担不起，这也不在他任何计划中。自封试管婴儿之父——再次证明福克斯新闻如何愚弄自己的观众和选民。

The math didn't add up. There's no way they could afford to pay for it. It was not part of any of his plans. Call himself the father of the IVF. Just like just was a reminder of how terribly Fox News treats its own viewers and voters.

把他们当傻子耍。

Shoot them like idiots.

你们觉得要是他被问到这个问题会怎么回应？会说'我们正在研究，再等几周'吗？

What do you guys think is gonna happen if he gets the question on this? Do think he's gonna say, we're looking into it. Couple more weeks?

对，我们准备...

Yeah. We're gonna

两周内公布方案。

a plan on that in two weeks.

新闻。干嘛问我这个问题？

News. Why are asking me that question?

你好大的胆子

How dare

你？这真是个糟糕的问题。这是个充满恶意的问题。是啊，也许他不会回答这个问题，因为你知道，这都是玛乔丽·泰勒·格林的男朋友搞的鬼。

you? That's a that's a terrible question. That's a hateful question. Yeah. Maybe he won't get the question because, you know, it's just all Marjorie Taylor Greene's boyfriend.

对了，顺便说一句，你正在和下一任劳工统计局局长对话。说到

Yeah. Who's the by the way, you're talking with the next head of bureau labor statistics. Speaking

特朗普的失信承诺，最近几周最受关注的是他承诺公开爱泼斯坦文件。然而，特朗普的司法部刚刚将爱泼斯坦的共犯吉斯莱恩·马克斯韦尔从佛罗里达的联邦监狱转移到德克萨斯一个名为“俱乐部联邦”的低安保设施。听起来不错。根据监狱管理局规定，像马克斯韦尔这样的性犯罪者本应关押在佛罗里达那样的设施，而非德克萨斯的低安保营地。自然，当特朗普在转移消息公布后首次接受提问时，他收到了关于这个热议争议的尖锐问题。

of Trump's broken promises, the one that's been getting the most attention these last few weeks was his promise to release the Epstein files. Instead, Trump's DOJ has just released Epstein's convicted coconspirator, Ghislain Maxwell, from a federal prison in Florida to a minimum security facility in Texas known as Club Fed. Sounds nice. According to Bureau of Prisons Regulation, sex offenders like Maxwell are supposed to be held in facilities like the one in Florida, not the minimum security camp in Texas. Naturally, when Trump took questions for the first time since the transfer was announced, he got some probing questions on the controversy that everyone's talking about.

女演员西德妮·斯威尼，我简直说不出话——她居然是注册共和党人。对此有什么看法？谁？西德妮·斯威尼。她现在可是超火的女演员。

Actress, Sydney Sweeney, I could not speak in that she was a registered Republican. Any thoughts on that? That who was? Sydney Sweeney. She's like a very hot actress right now.

她是注册共和党人？是啊，现在我更爱她的广告了。如果西德妮·斯威尼是注册共和党人，我觉得她的广告棒极了。好吧。

She's a registered Republican? Yeah. Now I love her ad. If Sydney Sweeney is a registered Republican, I think her ad is fantastic. Okay.

非常感谢大家。谢谢

Thank you very much, everybody. Thank

你，老兄。

you, man.

好问题。精彩的喊话问题。很高兴我们让他留下了记录。没有关于格伦·马克斯韦尔的问题。特朗普随后在周一早晨发帖称赞斯威尼，并攻击汽车公司捷豹发布的新广告过于‘觉醒’。

Great question. Great shouted question. Glad we got him on the record there. No Glenn Maxwell question. Trump followed that up with a Monday morning post praising Sweeney, attacking the car company Jaguar for a new supposedly woke ad.

那广告不是一年前的事了吗？我完全不知道，也没去查证。

Wasn't that like a year ago? I have no idea. I didn't have to look into that one.

是啊。那是挺久之前的事了。

Yeah. It's a while that a while ago.

对。他还再次声称泰勒·斯威夫特自从支持卡玛拉后就不受欢迎了。

Yeah. And he also claimed once again that Taylor Swift has stopped being popular since she endorsed Kamala.

她刚完成了一场票房20亿美元的巡演。

She did a $2,000,000,000 grossing tour.

这改变了瑞典的经济。他们表示看到了经济波动。这种泰勒·斯威夫特带来的瑞典经济提振明年可指望不上。

It changed the economy of Sweden. They're like, they're we're seeing a bump. This Taylor Swift bump in the Swedish economy can't be counted on next year.

在讨论西德妮·斯威尼之前，对爱泼斯坦案的最新进展有什么看法？麦克斯韦就这么悄无声息地...

Before we get to Sydney Sweeney, thoughts on the latest in the Epstein case? We got Maxwell go just no no explanation.

我必须强调吉斯莱恩·麦克斯韦绝非善类。她诱骗那些14岁女孩，亲自施虐，专门找那些曾受虐待或向她倾诉的受害者。爱泼斯坦案的受害者弗吉尼亚·朱弗雷这样评价她——

I just it's worth just repeating that Ghislain Maxwell is not a good person. Like, she groomed these 14 year old girls. She abused them herself. She sought out girls who had been abused themselves or confided in her. One Epstein victim, Virginia Giuffre, said about Ghislaine Maxwell.

CBS应该有报道——她是个恶魔，比爱泼斯坦更恶劣。她既狠毒又邪恶。

I think it's on CBS. She's a monster. She's worse than Epstein. She was vicious. She was evil.

我认识那位女士。弗吉尼亚·朱弗雷今年四月自杀身亡。这太令人愤慨了。

I know that woman. Virginia Giuffre died by suicide in April. So this is fucked up.

有份来自联邦监狱其他囚犯的报告显示，那些因盗窃等非暴力罪行入狱的人，都对不得不与吉斯莱恩·麦克斯韦同处感到恶心。虽然要靠这些人来体现道德领导力很可悲，但麦克斯韦参与性虐待的行为绝非非暴力犯罪——那是暴力行为，她是暴力罪犯。

So there was a a report from other prisoners at Club Fed who were there for theft and other nonviolent offensive who who are personally disgusted to have to be with Ghislaine Maxwell. And I'm sorry we have to look to these people for for their moral leadership. But Ghislaine Maxwell was is not a nonviolent offender, because she participated in sexual abuse. That is a violent act. She is a violent offender.

她不该关在白领罪犯监狱。不能因为当事人有钱、犯罪发生在豪华岛屿上就定性为白领犯罪。她是暴力刑事犯。现在的情况是，我们已知特朗普出现在爱泼斯坦文件中——这是他的司法部长亲口证实的。

She should not be in a place for white collar criminals. Just because it was a rich person and took place on a fancy island doesn't make it a white collar crime. She is a violent criminal offender. And where we're at now is, we know Trump was in the Epstein files. That's what his attorney general told him.

我们知道他派前私人律师与吉斯莱恩·麦克斯韦会面，时长多少来着，是八个半小时吗？有些...

We know that he dispatched his former personal attorney to meet with Ghislaine Maxwell for, what, was it eight and half hours? Some some

跨越两天时间。

Over two days.

跨越两天。我们知道特朗普被问及是否会赦免吉斯莱恩·麦克斯韦。他拒绝表态不会。他避而不谈。然后我们突然发现，她毫无解释地从条件较差的监狱被转移到了号称'联邦俱乐部'的设施。

Over two days. We know that Trump has been asked about whether he will pardon Ghislaine Maxwell. He won't say he won't. He won't he won't he won't address it. And and then we find out, without explanation, she's being transferred from a less pleasant facility to what's known as Club Fed.

多年前就有过争议，当时特朗普表示希望吉斯莱恩·麦克斯韦一切顺利对吧？除了得出特朗普律师正在讨好吉斯莱恩·麦克斯韦、用赦免可能性诱使她帮特朗普脱罪的结论外——毕竟文件中有他名字且他们有过长期关系——还能怎么想？

A previous controversy years ago was when Trump said that he wished Ghislaine Maxwell well. Right? And so what conclusion are you meant to draw other than Donald Trump's lawyers are currying favor with Ghislaine Maxwell, dangling a pardon in the hopes that she'll absolve him of any culpability, given that his name appears in the files and he had a long term relationship, whichever you have seen.

再次说明，我们是在周一下午录制。上周五才得知转移消息，而政府各部门——司法部、监狱管理局、白宫——对此毫无回应。我们完全不知道转移原因，也不清楚托德·布兰奇与吉斯莱恩·麦克斯韦两天会谈内容。这些问题统统没有答案。

Again, we're recording this Monday afternoon. We got this news on Friday about the transfer, and no one no no responses from the administration on this, from the DOJ, from the Bureau of Prisons, from the White House. We have no idea why she was transferred. We have no idea what Todd Blanche talked to Ghislaine Maxwell about over the course of two days. So we're just we just don't get these questions answered.

但司法部倒有时间向福克斯新闻泄露消息，说要召集大陪审团调查奥巴马政府的'通俄门'闹剧——连可能涉及什么罪行或违反哪条法律都说不清。他们能通知福克斯开展调查，却对格伦·麦克斯韦事件闭口不谈。

But the DOJ did have time to leak to Fox News that they're going to a grand jury to conduct an investigation into the Obama administration for this Russiagate bullshit that you can't even figure out what the crime might be, or what law might be broken. So they they were able to let Fox know that they are conducting this investigation, but no answer on Glenn Maxwell.

我们还知道上千名FBI员工全天候审查了爱泼斯坦文件中约十万份文档，他们花大量时间涂黑了特朗普的名字，而现在根据特朗普的说法这些文件将永不公开。完全没有任何可疑之处呢。

And we also know that a thousand FBI staffers worked twenty four seven to review something like a 100,000 documents in the Epstein files, and we know that they spent a bunch of time redacting Donald Trump's name, and now we're not gonna get to see those files according to Donald Trump. So nothing shady there.

那件事也没有答案。没有。没人...没人追问吗？没有解释吗？我们全都在摸黑前行。

No answers on that either. Nope. No no one no questions on that? No answers on that? Just we're just all flying blind here.

无论特朗普政府想告诉我们他们如何处理吉斯莱恩·麦克斯韦、奥巴马政府、通俄门或就业数据——我们都只能接受。然后他们还用那件事嘲讽所有人。不知道你们今天是否看到白宫发的帖，自称'史上最透明政府'。他们明知不是，这就是在羞辱所有人。

Whatever the Trump administration wants to tell us about what they're doing with Ghislaine Maxwell or the Obama administration or Russiagate or the jobs numbers, that's that's what we have to deal with. There's the the and then they and then they just fucking trolled us all with that. I don't know if you guys saw the post today from the White House that said most transparent administration in history. That's just they know they're not. They just said there's just a fuck you to everyone.

怎么样？这真是...

How about it? It's a

这简直就是赤裸裸的羞辱。顺便说一句，对他们自己的基本盘也是，主要是针对那些人。没错。

It's just a big fuck you. To their base too, by the way, to like Mostly. Yeah.

没错。要知道，他们花了很多精力试图赢得那些偏执选民的支持，迎合一堆阴谋论者，还把卡什·帕特尔和丹·邦吉诺这类宣扬爱泼斯坦案和QAnon阴谋论的人——就是那些声称权贵阶层操纵着全球性儿童性侵网络的理论——安排到权威职位上。结果转眼间特朗普当上总统，他们居然为美国历史上最臭名昭著的性贩子铺红毯，这人长期参与骇人听闻的犯罪活动。却完全...是的，完全没有任何追责。

Right. Well, you know, they spent a lot of they put a lot of attention on sort of trying to win the kind of crank vote and appeal to a bunch of conspiracy theorists, and they put Cash Patel and Dan Bongino in these positions of of authority, two people that espouse some version of of of conspiracy theories, which at this point, I think are true, about Epstein and about QAnon claiming there's a vast global pedophilia ring run by the powerful and the elite. And the next thing we know, Donald Trump is president, and they are laying out the red carpet for one of the most notorious sex traffickers in American history at this point, who participated in terrible crimes for a very long time. And there's just no yeah. There's just no accountability for it.

所有这些共和党人都对此保持沉默，实在令人作呕。

All these Republicans are silent in the face of it, and it's disgusting.

更重要的是，既然现在我们知道西德妮·斯威尼是注册共和党人，而且美国总统还多次对此事表态，各位想不想聊聊这个话题？

More importantly, would you guys like to weigh in on the Sydney Sweeney discourse now that we know she is a registered Republican reportedly, and now that the president of The United States has weighed in on this multiple times?

所以这只是对'牛仔裤'这个词的双关。

So it is just a pun on the word jeans.

对。没错。嗯哼。就是个对'牛仔裤'的双关。可能是继承的牛仔裤(genes)，也可能是她穿的牛仔裤(jeans)。

Yep. It is. Uh-huh. Just a Just a pun on the word jeans. Good jeans, but it's not it could be jeans inherited, or it could be jeans that she's wearing.

看？挺有意思吧。

See? It's funny.

这是个非常愚蠢又烦人的新闻。还有一点值得注意，白宫随时都能炒作这种话题。可能就六个人在TikTok上评论——不一定是TikTok博主——然后突然就变成那种特别烦人的网络热点。

It is a very dumb and annoying story. There's also something to be said about the fact that, like, the White House is able to kick this stuff up whenever it wants. It can be, like, six people commenting on, like, a TikTok. Doesn't have to be TikTok creator. It's like, you know, it's like that genre of really annoying Internet story.

就像'全网都在怒骂西德妮·斯威尼的新广告'，其实就几个蓝天上的人评论，突然变成新闻，突然整个MAGA媒体生态都在讨论，白宫还发声明。我们什么时候能有这种待遇？

It's like, the Internet is furious about this new Sydney Swingy ad. It's like some people commenting over on blue sky, and suddenly it's an article, and suddenly all of the MAGA media ecosystem is talking about it, and the White House is releasing statements. Like, when do we get to do that?

是啊。不过中间还有个环节，就是那些时尚专栏作家的点评。比如《华盛顿邮报》写了篇包含各种内容的文章，事情就从那里开始发酵，然后传到福克斯那边。

Yeah. It's also like There's a stopover though with, you know, random style writers opinion. Like, it was there was Washington Post piece about a couple of things. Was a whole bunch of things. So it's like, that's where it starts, and then it goes from there to to Fox.

对吧？然后他们全都在讨论那个五号的事，接着话题就转到唐纳德·特朗普身上了。简直就像一整个

Right? And then they're all talking about on the five, and then it goes to Donald Trump. It's like a whole

呃，我们选了个评论员当总统。我是说，问题就在这儿。他本质上就是新闻底下的跟帖网友，只不过碰巧

Well, we made we made a commenter president. I mean, that's the problem. He is he is one of the commenters beneath the story, but he also happens

他就是那个键盘侠。

He's the commenter.

没错，他是美国头号杠精。不过我得说那些'觉醒'的捷豹广告

Yeah. He's America's chief commenter. I will say the the woke Jaguar ads

什么...所以为什么说它们'觉醒'？具体是什么内容？

What what so why are they woke, and what are they?

首先我要指出捷豹是英国公司。按特朗普的说法，它其实没怎么受美国'觉醒'问题影响...但他们把商标改得特别丑——这倒和觉醒无关，新商标纯粹就是设计得很糟糕。

Well, so first of all, I just would point out that Jaguar is a British company. It's not really I don't think it's been really affected by America's woke problem according to Trump, but there it but but they they they they they redid their logo, and it's very ugly. And that's for non woke reasons. The new Jaguar logo was very bad.

这事发生在2024年底，

This happened in late twenty twenty four,

其实挺久了，真的特别久。久到所有人都在吐槽：你们这商标改得真烂。

by the It's quite old. It's quite old. So old. And everyone's like, hey. You did a bad job on your logo.

特朗普还有个问题就是...我们都搞不清时间线了。这事我们之前经历过吗？这集是不是重播？'慢跑者事件'是哪年的事？他现在又在说泰勒·斯威夫特了。

This is the other problem with Trump is, like, you've we've lost all sense of time whether we've done this thing before. Have we already seen this episode? Are we back to the episode? When did the jogger thing happen? He's talking about Taylor Swift again.

这到底什么情况？

What is happening?

你觉得那个刚刚，就是，你知道的，迪伦·马尔瓦尼，多么勇敢的人啊。我觉得她正在做的事情非常有趣，我喜欢她。我打算给她寄一箱百威淡啤。你觉得那个人会想到两年半后，美国总统会突然说‘那该死的百威淡啤必须被制止’吗？

Do you think the person who just, like like, you know, that Dylan Mulvaney, what a brave person. I find I I find what she's doing really interesting, and I I like her. I'm gonna I'm gonna send her a six pack of Bud Light. Do think that person knew that two and a half years later, the president The United States would just be like, that fucking Bud Light's gotta be stopped?

是啊。而且，基特·洛克可能会用机枪扫射百威淡啤罐子什么的。总之，

Yeah. And, like, there's gonna be Kit Rock, like, machine gunning Bud Light cans or something. Anyway,

那是那是西德妮·斯威尼。这就是我们现在要面对的情况。这是这场讨论的第13或14天了。让我们看看看看我们能坚持多久。

that's that's Sydney Sweeney. That's that's what we're dealing with now. This is day day 13 or 14 of the discourse. Let's see let's see how let's see how long we can do.

而且她因参与1月6日事件获得了赦免。

And she was pardoned for her involvement in January 6.

真的吗？那是其中一个

Is that right? That that's one

这件事如此有争议的原因，还是仅仅因为那个广告？我记不清了。

of the reasons this is so controversial, or is it just the ad? I can't remember.

她在爱泼斯坦

She is in the Epstein

的名单上，真的。对。对。

files, actually. Yeah. Yeah.

在我们进入休息前快速说两件事。在加拿大寻求庇护未果后，《爱它》将于本周四8月7日在Dynasty Typewriter带来新演出，还有特别嘉宾。哦，你们请到了肯·詹宁斯？

Two quick things before we go to break. After unsuccessfully seeking asylum in Canada, Love It is back with new shows at Dynasty Typewriter this Thursday, August 7, along with you got a special guest. Oh, you have you have Ken Jennings?

肯·詹宁斯和艾米

Ken Jennings and Amy