令人震惊的共和党计划：通过削减医疗保健资金来资助战争

让我们谈谈战争带来的经济后果，因为这是伊朗目前最大的筹码。

Let's talk about the economic fallout from the war because that is Iran's biggest leverage right now.

经济学家和能源行业专家不断告诉记者，即使战争很快结束，其后果才刚刚开始。

Economists and energy industry experts keep telling reporters that the fallout is only just beginning even if the war ends soon.

彭博社采访了三十多位此类专家，称‘一个信息被反复提及’。

Bloomberg talked to more than three dozen of these experts and said that, quote, one message was repeated over and over.

世界尚未意识到这一局势的严重性。

The world still hasn't grasped the severity of the situation.

其他国家已经面临能源短缺、粮食供应短缺和价格冲击。

Other countries are already dealing with energy shortages, food supply shortages, price shocks.

以下是欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德在接受《经济学人》采访时对‘最糟糕的情况尚未到来’这一观点的总结。

Here's European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde summing up the view that the worst is yet to come in an interview with The Economist.

我们正面临一场真正的冲击，其程度可能超出我们目前的想象。

We are facing a real shock that is probably beyond what we can imagine at the moment.

你认为是否存在一种盲目乐观，认为这场危机终将结束，世界会回归正常？

Do you think there is just a sort of blind optimism that somehow this is going to be over and the world will go back to normal?

也许他们过于乐观，并且执意保持乐观态度。

Well, maybe they are overly optimistic and determined to stay optimistic.

已经造成的损害太多了，不可能在几个月内恢复。

Too much has already been damaged, and there is no way that it can be restored in a matter of months.

大多数人实际上谈论的是以年为单位。

Most people are actually talking about years.

我认为这是一场危机，我们正在几乎一点一点、一天一天地了解实际后果会是什么，哪些国家将受到最大影响，哪些商品将需求最大。

And I think this this is a a crisis where we are learning almost bit by bit, day by day, what the actual consequences will be, what countries will be most affected, what of the commodities will be the the most in demand.

我看到一些人将当前时刻与2020年3月相比较，当时许多专家、学者、公共卫生专家和经济学家都在警告疫情即将带来的严重后果，而公众尚未完全意识到。

I saw some people comparing this moment to March 2020, where a lot of the the wonks and nerds and public health experts and economists were warning about how bad things were about to get because of COVID while the public hadn't caught up quite yet.

标普的首席能源顾问将目前看到的相对温和的市场反应称为“非理性的乐观”。

The top energy adviser for the S and P called the relatively mild market response so far that we're seeing, quote, irrational optimism.

你怎么看？

What do you think?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为人们只想到石油会受到影响，但

I think people think about this as oil being affected, but

还有氦气，它用于半导体制造和核磁共振成像设备。

there's helium, which is needed for semiconductor manufacturing and MRI machines.

卡塔尔生产了全球35%的氦气。

Qatar produces 35% of the world's helium.

化肥的关键成分，如氨、尿素、硫和磷酸盐。

Key ingredients for fertilizer like ammonia, urea, sulfur, and phosphates.

你还有液化天然气。

You have liquid natural gas.

卡塔尔的铝生产已经下降。

Aluminum production in Qatar is down.

陶氏公司告诉客户：约翰，我们正在提高塑料的价格。

Dow told its customers, we're increasing the price of plastic, Jon.

谢谢你的分享。

Thank you for that.

所以这不仅影响了世界其他地区，可能甚至比美国影响更严重，而我们已经看到了这一点。

So it's not just it's hitting hitting the rest of the world, probably even harder than The United States, and we're already seeing that.

我来念几段来自不同世界领导人的引述给你听。

Just gonna read you a couple quotes from different different world leaders.

韩国总统今天表示：'世界正因能源危机而陷入动荡。'

South Korea's president today said that, quote, the world is in turmoil over the energy crisis.

形势如此严重，甚至让我夜不能寐。

The situation is so serious that it it has even kept me up at night.

当前的问题已经十分严峻，但未来的前景似乎更加不稳定。

The immediate problem is grave enough, but the outlook ahead seems even more unstable.

情况比预期更糟。

The situation is worse than expected.

意大利国防部长当然也受到了另一波冲击。

Italy's defense minister, of course, have to nick another hit for that.

我现在不得不去思考，必须了解未来一周会发生什么，以及它将如何影响经济和我们的日常生活，这些事情已经让我无法安睡。

I am forced now to think I am forced now to know things about what would happen in the coming week, the and effects it will have on the economy and our daily lives that no longer allow me to sleep.

世界各地的外国领导人睡眠都不多。

Not a lot of sleep for foreign leaders all around the world.

是的。

Yeah.

美国或许能有一些缓冲措施。

There are ways The US might be insulated.

我们有很多资源。

We have a lot.

我们拥有大量的天然气，氦气储量甚至超过卡塔尔，但全球衰退的可能性不会放过我们。

We have a lot of natural gas, and more helium than Qatar, but the possibility of a global recession will not spare us.

我觉得就是这个了。

I think this was it.

我觉得这简直是一个史无前例的错误，乔恩。

I think this was like a world historic mistake, Jon.

我真的很担心这件事。

I'm really worried about it.

好的。

Okay.

我很高兴我们认真对待这件事。

I'm glad that I'm glad that Anyway, we're taking this seriously.

我们正在认真对待这个问题

We are taking this

几周后再跟我们聊聊，到时候回放那段视频。

Talk to us like in a couple of weeks, play back that clip when

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我们之前是吗？

Were we?

当时好像有

There was like

股市下跌了2000点，而且到处都是排长队加油的场面。

2,000 points in the stock market and there's fucking, you know, gas lines everywhere.

不。

No.

情况真的糟透了。

It's really fucking bad.

情况真的很糟。

It's really bad.

而且

And

我们这么做是为了表明一个观点。

We did that to prove a point.

我们当时是在强调。

We were highlighting.

是的。

Yes.

我们当时是在强调这个观点。

We were highlighting the the point.

而且如果能让更多人看到这些信息，也许这也是目标之一。

And and and if this gets this information in front of more people, perhaps that was the goal too.

是的。

Yeah.

还有破坏本身，即使你打通了航道，情况也不会马上恢复。

And and the destruction also, even if you open the straight, things will not bounce back.

这种影响会持续很长时间。

There'll be ripple effects for a long time.

我真心觉得，你看鲁比奥就是这样。

I I genuinely think, like, you see this with Rubio.

他经常暗示，他想告诉欧洲和其他国家：你们需要打开霍尔木兹海峡，因为伊朗真的对我们非常愤怒。

He's he's implying this a lot of times that that that he's trying to tell the Europeans and and other countries, we need you to open the Strait Of Hormuz because, honestly, Iran is just, like, so mad at us.

但同时，这也是因为你们会受到更大冲击，毕竟我们确实拥有更多氦气。

But, also, because it's gonna hit you more because we do actually have more helium.

我们确实有天然气。

We do have natural gas.

对吧？

Right?

我们对其中一些影响有抵御能力，但从长远来看，这种影响的连锁反应，会波及各个行业和各个国家，最终也会找上我们。

We are insulated from some of this, but in the long term, the the ripple effects of this, the the way this will ricochet across all different sectors, all different countries, like, it will come for us.

我们不会幸免于难。

We will not be spared.

我们比其他国家更有抵御能力，但我们的消费者也更敏感，因为他们太娇气了。

We are insulated better than other countries, but we are also more sensitive than other countries because our consumers are pussies.

就是说，哎呀，几美分而已。

It's just like, oh, a couple cents.

不，不行。

Like, no.

伊朗正是利用了这一点，他们知道，美国消费者支付更高的油价，会为唐纳德·特朗普带来比世界上其他更严重的危机更大的政治问题。

It it they Iran is banking on the fact here that, you know, American consumers paying higher gas prices is going to cause a much bigger political problem for Donald Trump, relatively speaking than even some of these much more severe crises in the rest of the world.

而且我们并不是免疫的，因为一旦发生全球衰退，天哪，这肯定会波及美国。

And we're not insulated because, you know, once there's a if there's a global recession, God forbid, like, that is going to affect The United States.

你根本无法逃避这一点。

You can't fucking escape that.

而在汽油价格已经涨到每加仑5美元以上的情况下再来一场衰退，人们早就对价格感到不满了。

And a recession while gas prices are are crusting over $5 a gallon, people are already upset about about prices.

这在政治上对特朗普来说是最糟糕的情况，而且

Like, that is a worst case scenario politically for Trump and

问题是。

the problem.

再说一次，我们之前谈到过管道重新开通的事，但卡塔尔对天然气的那次袭击，导致今年全球液化天然气供应减少了大约2800万吨。

And again, we were talking about the the straight being opened again, but, like, that attack in Qatar on the natural gas, like, knocked out roughly 28,000,000 tons of supply from the market this year of liquid natural gas.

这几乎相当于2026年全球供应增长的全部预期。

That represents nearly the entire global supply growth forecast for 2026.

据《纽约时报》称，从中东流向全球的液化天然气要恢复到战前水平，可能需要好几年。

It could take years, listen from the New York Times, years for the flow of liquid natural gas from the Mideast to return to prewar levels.

而且，就算今天海峡重新开放，也别指望了。

And that is just like, forget if the Strait opened tomorrow.

这事已经完了。

That's just it's done.

它被毁了。

It's destroyed.

这可能会让一些美国化石燃料公司受益。

And that might benefit some American fossil fuel companies.

这确实可能对某些公司有帮助。

That might actually help some Yeah.

他们的利润。

Their profits.

价格上涨。

Prices.

但消费者不会从中受益。

But we will consumers will not benefit from that.

消费者将为全球供应变化买单。

Consumers will pay for a global change in supply.

此外，特朗普的口头干预——他试图用那些荒谬的言论安抚市场——已经不再有效了。

Also, Trump's jawboning, the him trying to calm the markets with his crazy truths, not really working anymore.

事情已经开始了。

It's already started.

他确实这么做了，你知道吗？首先，你有没有看到我们正在与之谈判的伊朗新人物——议会发言人——在推特上调侃特朗普？我看到了。

To like, he did it, you know Well, first of all, did you see the did you see the our new guy in Iran that we're negotiating with, the Speaker of Parliament, trolling Trump on I did.

推特

Twitter

我看到了这条。

I did see this.

注意一下。

Heads up.

盘前所谓的新闻或真相，往往只是为获利了结而设的局。

Pre market so called news or truth is often just a setup for profit taking.

基本上，这是一个反向指标。

Basically, it's a reverse indicator.

反其道而行之。

Do the opposite.

如果他们推高，就做空。

If they pump it, short it.

如果他们抛售，就做多。

If they dump it, go long.

明天看到什么，你知道该怎么做的。

See something tomorrow, you know the drill.

我们的想法是，现在正处于一种来回拉锯的状态：特朗普试图操纵市场，以避免自己因承受结束战争的压力而被动；而伊朗则公开、赤裸裸地反向操作市场，因为如果市场对特朗普的言论无动于衷，他在谈判中的筹码就会丧失。

The the idea that we're in a a back and forth where you have Trump trying to work the markets to avoid him feeling pressure to end the war, and you have Iran trying to work the markets in the opposite direction just so publicly, so baldly, because if the markets don't respond to what Trump is saying, he loses leverage in the negotiation.

我的意思是，也许，说实话，我正在说服自己，把这看作是一种希望的信号，乔恩。

I mean, maybe, honestly, as I'm I'm talking to myself into seeing it as a sign for hope, Jon.

但我觉得，当特朗普最近又说‘取得巨大进展’之类的话时，市场根本就没反应。

Well, but I think that, like, when Trump the the latest truth, when he, you know, said great progress and stuff like that, it just didn't.

它对市场的影响越来越小了。

It's it's it's changing the markets less.

市场对它的反应不如以前那么强烈了。

Like, the markets are responding not as much as they used to.

目前油价仍然远高于100美元。

The price of oil right now is still now way above a 100.

之前好像到了110左右，不管怎样。

It was like a 110, whatever.

他偷偷打探了吗？

Did he snoop?

我不记得是哪家公司了，但有一家公司创建了一个压力指数。

I don't remember which firm, but a firm has created a kind of pressure index.

嗯嗯。

Mm-mm.

所以有个TACO指数，嗯。

So there's a TACO index Mhmm.

那是由一家金融机构创建的。

That a financial firm has created.

基本上，它综合了几个不同的指标，来评估唐纳德·特朗普在重要问题上让步前所承受的压力程度。

And, basically, it looks at a couple different indicators to come together to put them together to suggest the amount of pressure Donald Trump is under to argue for when he will cave on something important.

我认为这很重要，原因在于，是的。

And because and and the reason I think that matters is because yeah.

你说得对。

You're right.

那些单独的言论不再像过去那样引发同样的市场调整了。

The the the individual statements aren't causing the same kind of, like, corrections as we were seeing in the past.

但我确实认为，根本问题——这也反映了这场冲突的本质——是市场最终预期特朗普会尊重市场。

But I do think the underlying problem, and it speaks to what's going on in this conflict too, is that the markets ultimately expect Trump to respect the markets.

对吧？

Right?

整个市场那种非理性的乐观情绪，都建立在唐纳德·特朗普关心这些市场走势这一想法之上。

That that that the whole the whole the the kind of irrational optimism of the markets is based on the idea that Donald Trump cares what happens to these markets.

而这并不是那种会频繁波动的东西，而是会融入整体预期之中。

And that is, like, not something that's gonna show ups and downs, but it's gonna be baked into an overall expectation.

对吧？

Right?

问题是，这种预期什么时候会崩溃？

And the question is when does that give?

是的。

Yeah.

这是因为，终归有一天，特朗普关心市场是不够的。

Well, that gives because at some point, Donald Trump caring about the markets isn't enough.

特朗普尊重市场或担心市场是不够的，因为如果石油没有了、汽油没有了、化肥没有了，他什么也做不了。

Donald Trump respecting the markets or being worried about the markets isn't enough because if the oil isn't there or the gas isn't there, know, like, or the fertilizer isn't there, there's nothing he can do about it.

因为这不再是一场象征性的电视对抗，而开始变成现实世界的后果。

Because it stops being a symbolic television fight and starts being a real world consequences.

而这正是你现在从油价和市场中看到的——我们正逐渐走向这个阶段，人们意识到：无论特朗普多么关心股市和他的支持率，这些都无济于事。

Which is where you can see from the price of oil and the markets right now, like, is where we're getting to right now, where they realize, like, okay, Donald Trump can care all he wants about the stock market and his approval rating, all that stuff doesn't matter.

他阻止不了。

He can't stop it.

他并不是这里唯一有投票权的人。

He, like, he he doesn't have the only vote here.

有一群人不可能被指责为非理性的乐观主义者，那就是在伊朗问题上与特朗普决裂的MAGA支持者。

One group of people who can't be accused of irrational optimism are the MAGA types who've broken with Trump on Iran.

周日有一段精彩的推特对话，安·库尔特发帖说：‘看着福克斯新闻向观众保证伊朗战争进展顺利，特朗普是个十足的硬汉，就像看着同一个频道向观众保证多米尼昂投票系统操纵了2020年大选，特朗普才是赢家。’

There's a great Twitter exchange on Sunday where Ann Coulter tweeted, quote, this is Ann Coulter, watching Fox News assure viewers the Iran war is going super well and Trump is a total stud is like watching the same network assure viewers that the dominion voting systems rigged the twenty twenty election and Trump was the winner.

玛乔丽·泰勒·格林回应道：‘福克斯新闻现在成了假新闻，正在洗脑婴儿潮一代支持我们当初投票反对的东西。’

To which Marjorie Taylor Greene responded, quote, Fox News is now the fake news, brainwashing boomers to support what we voted against.

这真是一段精彩的对话。

What a what an exchange.

我太喜欢了。

I love it.

当共和党人短暂地体会到当一名民主党人的感觉时，没有什么比这更让我开心了。

I there's nothing that makes me happier when Republicans get a taste for just a moment of what it feels like to be a Democrat.

就像，他们简直无法理解，到底发生了什么？

Like, that that it's like they can't like, what is happening?

他们在误导公众。

They're they're misinforming the public.

他们以一种让我感到不快的方式，让公众对现实产生免疫力。

They're inoculating them against the reality of what's going on on the ground in a way that I find displeasing.

洗脑老一辈。

Brainwashing the boomers.

他们显然刚刚开始洗脑老一辈。

They just they just started brainwashing the boomers, apparently.

嘿。

Hey.

有人快报警。

Somebody call the police.

福克斯新闻已经开始洗脑老一辈了。

Fox News has begun brainwashing the boomers.

突发新闻。

Breaking news.

在刚刚结束于德克萨斯州的年度保守派集会CPAC，情况似乎也没好多少。

Things didn't seem to be going much better over at CPAC, the annual conservative get together that just wrapped in Texas.

我们来听一下。

Let's take a listen.

对伊朗发动地面入侵会让我们的国家更贫穷、更不安全。

A ground invasion of Iran will make our country poorer and less safe.

这将导致油价和食品价格上涨，而且我不确定我们最终杀死的恐怖分子会不会比制造的还少。

It will mean higher gas prices, higher food prices, and I'm not sure we would end up killing more terrorists than we would create.

关于伊朗，你怎么看？

When it comes to Iran, how do you feel about that?

我不高兴。

I'm not happy.

我一点都不高兴。

I'm not happy at all.

我的意思是，特朗普总统竞选时承诺不发动新的战争。

I mean, president Trump ran on no new wars.

我在想，我们是不是对以色列就一味迁就，你知道的？

I do question some of the things when it comes to, are we just gonna bend over everything for Israel, you know?

这可不是我投票支持的那回事。

This isn't, you know, what I voted for.

我投票支持的是国内政策的变革，以及务实的外交政策。

What I voted for was domestic policy change at home and, you know, realistic foreign policy.

我觉得很多保守派，尤其是年轻保守派，现在对特朗普感到失望，我也算其中一个。

I think a lot of people, conservatives, young conservatives right now kind of disillusioned with Trump, and I would consider myself one of those.

那他现在能做些什么来赢回你的支持呢？

So what can he do to win you back at this point?

没什么能做的。

Not much.

真是一群自由派的懦夫。

What a bunch of lib cucks.

那是DSA会议吗，还是说那是

Was that a was that a DSA meeting or was that

有

There was

某个人

a somebody

马特·盖茨。

Matt Gaetz.

那里有

Mag there was

《纽约时报》的一篇文章中提到，有人表示MAGA运动正在衰落，那是一位年轻人，说他们现在觉得与左派比与共和党年长成员更有共同点

a somebody in the Times story said that MAGA is dying and that so it was like a young person that said they felt like they had more common at this point with the left than they did with older members of

共和党人，是的。

the Republican Yeah.

她确实是，是的。

She's a yeah.

她就像一位27岁的佛罗里达策略师。

She was like a like a 27 year old Florida strategist.

是的。

Yeah.

MAGA正在消亡。

MAGA's dying.

什么，一个，什么

What a what a What

一段引述。

a quote.

《Politico》刊登了一篇报道，里面满是类似这样的引述，来自参加过活动的年轻人。我们上周在几个YouTube频道上播放过这段内容，但你可能已经看过，当提到马特·施拉普的弹劾条款时，人群出乎意料地欢呼起来。

Politico's up with a story full of more quotes like that from young men who attended, and and we we played this last week on a couple of our YouTubes, but you've probably seen the the crowd unexpectedly cheered the the mention of articles of impeachment from Matt Schlapp.

你怎么看待MAGA对战争的支持率在民调中显示的情况，与我们从非常突出的MAGA人物以及CPAC与会者那里听到和看到的情况之间明显的矛盾？

What do you make of the seeming discrepancy between what the polls are showing in terms of MAGA support for the war and what we are seeing and hearing from both very prominent MAGA types and some of the attendees at CPAC.

如果你按年龄划分特朗普支持者——Politico也做过类似分析——35岁以下的人中，超过三分之二认为特朗普有计划，而35岁以上的人中，这一比例不到一半。

So if you break up Trump supporters by age, and this what Politico did as well, that more than two thirds of those 35 think Trump has a plan when it's less than half of those 35.

三分之二的年长MAGA男性愿意在伊朗牺牲美国人的生命，而年轻MAGA男性中这一比例不到一半。

Two thirds of older MAGA men were willing to sacrifice American lives in Iran compared with less than half of younger MAGA men.

如果你通过电视或Facebook获取新闻——也就是旧媒体时代的方式，那么这种旧媒体模式与玛乔丽·泰勒·格林对福克斯新闻的描述非常相似。

If you get your news on television or through Facebook, kind of in the old economy, and the old economy looks a lot like what Marjorie Taylor Greene is saying about Fox.

但如果你年轻，你就不会像以前那样看有线电视了，年轻人早就不再关注MAGA了。

But if you're younger, you're you're not watching cable the same way young peep forget MAGA.

根本没有年轻人看有线电视。

No young people are watching cable.

那你从哪里获取新闻？

So where are getting your news?

你是在消费数字右翼新闻，这些新闻普遍更少干预主义，也更异端。

You're consuming it from digital right wing news, which is much less interventionist, much more heterodox generally.

因此，由于MAGA是一个以年长者为主的联盟，年轻支持者中的巨大转变可能在民调中不会体现为显著影响，但它确实代表了他们的走向。

And so because it's an older coalition, a huge shift amongst younger supporters might not show as big of an impact in the polls, but it does represent where they're headed.

我认为你在CPAC这里看到的现象很有趣，我认为Turning Point USA也大致如此：整个旧右翼媒体体系——包括福克斯新闻、广播等——其存在就是为了对抗主流媒体，而主流媒体就是他们的敌人。

And I think the thing that's interesting about what you're seeing here at CPAC, and I think the same can probably be said about Turning Point USA, is the whole old right wing media machine that that Fox News came out of, radio came out of, it existed to create a space that was in defiance of the mainstream media, and that was the enemy.

敌人是主流媒体，你们是在反抗那种共识。

The enemy was the mainstream media, and you were defying that, that consensus.

但无论是塔克·卡尔森、每日电讯还是其他这些，或者罗根那种独立的宇宙，态度都如此。

But the the attitude on whether it's Tucker Carlson or Daily Wire or any of these other or or the or the Rogan kind of, you know, independent universe.

这不再仅仅是反抗某个机构或与主流媒体划清界限，而是更在于能够自在地保持异见，并愿意承认自己阵营的错误。

It's less about defying any one institution or defining yourself against the mainstream media than it more is about just being comfortable with being heterodox and being willing to say when even your own side is wrong.

我觉得，这与你在每日电讯等地方所看到的福克斯风格截然不同。

I think that's a genuinely different vibe from Fox as you would find in, say, like, the Daily Wire.

这些年轻人就属于这样一个世界，他们愿意说：嘿。

And these young people are of that world, which is willing to be like, hey.

我们没投这个。

We didn't vote for this.

去他的吧。

Like, fuck this.

这根本不是关于阵营的问题。

We're not this is not about teams.

是的

Yeah.

它也非常反体制。

It's also very anti institutionalist.

是的

Yeah.

福克斯显然从未真正如此，也许刚成立时是，但如今它本身就是体制。

And Fox has obviously never really been that maybe when they first started, but, like, they are the institution.

对吧？

Right?

我还想说，在分析民调时最常见的错误之一是，民调总是、总是、总是滞后的指标。

I also like, one of the most common mistakes made in analyzing polls is that they are always, always, always a lagging indicator.

民调反映的是两到三周甚至四周前的公众意见。

And that a poll is telling you about what public opinion was two or three, four weeks earlier.

我的意思是，不仅因为民调的调查方式如此，也因为公众意见本身需要时间渗透到那些不太关注新闻、但仍然会回答民调的人身上。

I mean, just in the way that the poll was actually fielded, but also in just the the way public opinion sort of filters down to folks who aren't paying as close attention to the news, but maybe still answer a poll.

所以，即使是今天，你知道，在内特·西尔弗的特朗普支持率平均数据中，他的支持率首次低于40%，为39.7%

So, like, even today, you know, in Nate Silver's polling average of Trump's approval, he has Trump sub 40, like 39.7 for the first time.

这是他的平均支持率，39.7%

That's his average approval rating, 39.7.

他说他的净支持率为-17.4%

He said his net approval is negative 17.4.

这是支持率和反对率的差值

That's the approval and the disapproval.

作为对比，特朗普在1月6日之后的净支持率是-19.1%

Just by comparison, Trump was negative 19.1 after January 6.

所以他现在是-17.4%

So he's 17.4 now.

拜登在辩论后跌至-20.5%的最低点

Biden bottomed out at negative 20.5 after the debate.

所以特朗普现在正处于他本人以及其它总统曾经历过的最糟糕境地

So Trump is, like, just in the worst territory that he's ever been and that other presidents have been.

关于基本盘的问题，内特·西尔弗也提到过，强烈支持特朗普的人比例已降至22.4%，这是有史以来的最低水平。

And to the point about the base, and and Nate goes into this as well, Trump's strong approval, people who approve strongly of Trump, is down to 22.4%, which is its lowest ever.

强烈支持者的比例下降幅度超过了整体支持率，这意味着你可能在‘你喜欢特朗普还是不喜欢特朗普’这种表面问题上看不到变化，但真正喜欢他、对他充满热情的核心支持者，现在已降至22%。

And the strong approval number has declined by more than his overall support, which means that like, maybe you're not seeing it in like, do you like Trump or not like Trump, but the people who really like Trump, the base, the people who are excited about him, are down to 22%.

是的。

Yeah.

这就是为什么你看到很多报道说，CPAC会议的会场比以往更冷清，现场没有以往那种热情氛围。

It's why it's why you see a lot of reports about CPAC being a bit more space than usual in the ballrooms, that there's not the enthusiasm there was.

是的。

Yeah.

今天还有一项民调——我觉得是哈佛大学的民调——显示，更多美国人认为拜登的经济表现优于特朗普的经济表现。

And the the there was a poll think it was the Harvard poll that came out today that showed more Americans prefer the Biden economy than the than the Trump economy.

现在有很多人正在重新评估拜登与特朗普之间的对比。

There's a lot of lot of people reevaluating the comparison of Biden to Trump right now.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我认为这是因为拜登经济初期通胀非常严重时，人们觉得这是继承了新冠疫情的影响，但随着时间推移，人们对拜登迟迟未能解决通胀问题越来越没耐心。

I mean and I think that's because at least at the beginning of the the Biden economy when inflation was really bad, There's like, well, there was COVID, inherited COVID, and then, like, over time, you know, people had less patience for Biden not having fixed inflation.

但同样，对于特朗普来说，区别在于他亲自推动了这些措施。

But, again, with Trump, the difference is he did this.

像这样严重的经济危机其实非常罕见，尤其是当你不能简单地归咎于总统任内遭遇了经济衰退，然后怪他这样或那样。

Like, it's it's it's been so rare that there's been a crisis like this, like an economic crisis, especially where you're like, not, oh, the president presided over a recession and maybe you can blame them for this or that.

但不是这样的。

But like, no.

根本不是。

No.

是他亲自实施了关税，是他发动了战争。

This is he did the tariffs, he did the war.

他就是直接这么做了。

He just did them.

这并不

This doesn't

没人逼他这么做。

No one made him do it.

他就是自己做了。

He just did it.

特朗普那种反复无常的注意力集中，让他的支持率跌至40以下，运气好的话，之后又回升到四十几%，然后一直徘徊不前。

The the, like, the Trump kind of yo yo of attention on him leads his approval rating to fall sub 40 if you're lucky, and it bounces back to mid forties thereafter and kind of hovers.

我确实觉得我们已经进入拜登任期的后半段了。

I I do feel like we're into the more end of the Biden term.

他不该参选，我们对通胀仍然不满，就像卡特里娜飓风后的布什，他找到了一个支持率的底线，再也无法摆脱，人们也无法对特朗普形成明确的判断。

He shouldn't be running, and we're still mad about inflation, or post Katrina Bush where he's kind of found a floor and there's no way off of it, that people can come to a conclusion about Trump.

我认为我们现在就处在这个阶段。

I think that's where we're at.

是的。

Yeah.

与此同时，那些在中期选举中参选的共和党人，似乎正在做一项实验，看看在大选年里，他们能让这场战争多么不受选民欢迎。

Meanwhile, the, the yahoos who who are running, in the midterms, the Republicans, they seem to be running some kind of experiment on just how unpopular they can make this war with voters in an election year.

我给你看了周一早上 Axios 的一则头条新闻，这肯定会出现在你的消息框里。

I gave you the following Axios headline from Monday morning that's undoubtedly coming to a message box near you.

引述：共和党考虑削减医疗保健支出以资助对伊朗的战争。

Quote, GOP weighs health care cuts to pay for Iran war.

太惊人了。

Amazing.

Axios 只是把那个消息框形状的聚光灯打在了云上。

Just Axios puts up the the message box shaped spotlight on the cloud.

丹在春假。

Dan on spring break.

是的。

Yeah.

丹在春假。

Dan's on spring break.

他在，是的。

He's yeah.

他和家人在一起。

He's with his family.

他可能只是说，什么？

He probably just like, what?

什么？

What?

你听到了吗？

Did you hear that?

他一按钢琴上的三个键，一扇小门就开了，他把杆子放下去，进入消息箱洞穴。

He, like, presses 3 keys on a piano, a little door opens up, he takes the pole down to the message box cave.

显然，国会中的共和党人正在考虑制定一项新的大型预算法案，用削减医疗保险、医疗补助和奥巴马医改的部分资金来资助对伊朗的战争以及国土安全部的开支。

Apparently, Republicans in Congress are thinking about putting together a big new budget bill that would fund both the war on Iran and ICE paid for in part by cutting Medicare, Medicaid, and Obamacare.

只是一个想法。

Just one idea.

我们只是在提出这个想法，但这真是个好主意。

We're just floating the idea, but boy, it a good one.

关于我的问题，我直接念一下Axios的‘为何重要’要点。

For my question here, I'll just read you Axios' Why It Matters bullet.

嗯哼。

Mhmm.

试图控制医疗项目的最新举措必然引发争议，并让共和党面临选举年被指责为用削减医疗保障来为一场不受欢迎的战争买单的攻击。

New efforts to rein in health programs are sure to be controversial and open the GOP up to election year attacks that they're cutting health care to pay for an unpopular war.

别逗了。

No shit.

你觉得呢？

You think?

史蒂夫·斯卡利斯被问到此事时，他说他们在寻找浪费、欺诈和滥用行为。

There's a Steve Scalise was asked about this, and he said that they're looking for waste fraud and abuse act.

他们总是这么说。

They always are.

这真让人气愤。

It's so galling.

这太令人愤慨了，因为就在一年前，他们通过了一项宏伟的法案，以削减浪费、欺诈和滥用为由，从医疗保健中砍掉了整整一万亿美元。

It's so galling because it was a year ago when they passed the big beautiful bill and cut a trillion dollars from health care claiming it was waste fraud and abuse.

所以我们是要相信你的话吗，史蒂夫？

So are we meant to believe, Steve?

他们并没有全部砍掉。

They didn't get it all.

还得再回去砍一轮。

Gotta go back in.

你是不是留了一些没动？

Did you leave some behind?

就像伊朗的核尘埃一样。

Like the nuclear dust in Iran.

是的。

Yeah.

就像是留下一小包所谓的浪费、欺诈和滥用的剩饭，等以后再回来处理。

Like, just some some like, a to go bag of waste for fraud and abuse that you were gonna come back to later.

我想不出还有什么比这更不受欢迎的方式，能让他们找到两千亿美元去资助对伊朗的战争，但他们正越来越接近了。

I can't think of a of a less popular way for them to try to find $200,000,000,000 to spend on the war in Iran, but but they're getting close.

这将是一项预算调和法案，因为他们知道在参议院根本不可能获得60票。

Now, this would be a budget reconciliation bill because they know there's no way they could get 60 votes in the Senate.

参议院只需要51票就够了，而共和党在技术上确实拥有这个票数。

It would only need 51 votes in the Senate, which Republicans do technically have.

你觉得他们有多大可能凑够51票？

What do you think the chances are they can get to 51?

我应该说一下，我想我之前提过，我假设众议院会通过这项法案，但我甚至都不确定自己是否真的这么假设。

And and I I should say, I guess, I assume I said that assuming that the House will pass it, but I don't even know if I assume that the House will pass it.

我不认为众议院会通过这项法案。

I don't I don't assume the House will pass it.

他们在众议院根本没有那么多回旋余地，而且这种空间正变得越来越少。

They don't have that they don't have the the that much wiggle room in the House less and less all the time.

博伯特已经明确反对任何形式的追加拨款。

Beaubert has come out pretty forcefully against any kind of a supplemental.

我认为，当资金来源是医疗保健时，情况并不会好转。

I don't think it gets better when the pay fors are health care.

但话说回来，一些共和党人，甚至那些还没发言的，唯一愿意划出底线的地方就是：他们不会投票支持任何增加赤字的法案。

But then again, some of these Republicans, even ones that haven't spoken yet, have one of the only places they've been willing to draw a line is they will not vote for bills that that raise the deficit.

所以看起来他们必须找到某种资金来源。

So it seems like they will need to find some kind a pay for.

所以我不确定这个法案如何能在众议院通过。

So I I don't know how this thing gets through the House.

就参议院而言，你得假设柯林斯会投反对票。

In terms of the Senate, you gotta assume Collins is a no.

你得假设。

You gotta assume

我的意思是，你能想象吗？

I mean has to Could you imagine?

她不可能会支持，我的意思是，你看看。

It's inconceivable that she'd be I mean, look.

她？谁知道呢？

She's who knows?

但你假设她会投反对票。

But you assume she's a no.

你假设兰德·保罗也会投反对票。

You assume Rand Paul is a no.

所以他们最多只能再失去一票。

So they can only lose one more.

穆尔科斯基已经表达了怀疑。

Murkowski has expressed skepticism.

她会投反对票。

She's a no.

她不可能会这么做。

There's no way she'll do that.

那这样一来，就彻底没戏了。

So then you then that's it.

所以如果她投反对票，那为什么丹·苏利文会投赞成票呢？

So then I bet, if she's a no, would Dan why would Dan Sullivan be a yes?

因为他正在和玛丽·帕尔托拉竞争。

Because he's running against Mary Paltola.

她最新的民调数据领先。

Who just has a new poll ahead.

对。

Right.

所以如果你可能失去苏利文，那你就是对的。

So it's like then you you you maybe lose Sullivan, you get you're right.

蒂利斯是

Tillis is By

顺便说一句，如果科尼恩能挺过初选，我们不知道这次投票什么时候进行，但你知道，在投票之前，无论怎么看待科尼恩的政治立场，他都已陷入困境。但如果你在参议院，你的意思是，除非众议院通过了，否则我们不会碰这个议题，因为我觉得要让这种法案通过真的很难。

the way, if Cornyn gets through this primary, we don't know when this vote will be, but, you you know, before the before the vote Cornyn's politics are fucked anyway you slice it, But I would assume if you're in the Senate, what you're saying is we're not gonna touch this unless the House passed it, because I do think it's really hard to figure out how you get this kind of a thing through.

现在，也许他们还会在另一边争取到乔恩·费特曼，是的。

Now, maybe they pick up Jon Fetterman also on the on the side, which Yeah.

但接着

But then

投票给乔恩·费特曼，那就会是。

vote for Jon Fetterman that would be.

我们将全额资助移民与海关执法局。

We're gonna fully fund ICE.

我们将全额资助这场战争。

We're gonna we're gonna fully fund this war.

我们将削减你的医疗保障。

We're gonna cut your health.

现在我猜，最终，如果你要问他们，是宁愿接受医疗削减，还是支持一项为战争筹资而增加赤字的法案，我认为他们会选——我认为这个议会中的大多数共和党人会选择

Now I I bet at the end, the health care cuts if you if you had to ask them whether they'd rather stomach health care cuts or a bill that raises the deficit in order to fund the war, I think they would go for I think I think this most Republicans in this caucus would go for the

赤字。

deficit.

预算协调程序不是有规则吗？你会以某种虚假的方式定义如何为它筹资

Doesn't reconciliation like, there are rules of reconciliation that you're gonna define some fake way to pay

为了它。

for it.

虚假的会计把戏。

Fake accounting bullshit.

是的。

Yeah.

但你看。

But look.

但接着我们又在谈议事程序了，参议院里真有共和党人支持这个吗？

Then but then at them then we're talking about parliamentarians again, and you do you have Republicans in the Senate who are committed to this?

不知道。

Don't know.

这件事的政治操作，我知道。

It gets The politics of this are I know.

就这样完成了。

Gets done.

狗屎。

Dog shit.

撇开费特曼不说，我必须假设你们连一张民主党票都没有。

And and Fetterman Fetterman aside, I gotta assume you have not a single Democratic vote

为我们。

for us.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为你们有。

I think you do.

我希望众议院也是这样，但你也不确定。

I I hope that's the same in the House, but you don't know.

只是他们的政治操作把这件事搞得更糟了。

It's just that they they couldn't make the politics of this worse.

没错。

No.

他们做不到。

They couldn't.

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我刚刚和我的一个朋友聊了聊。

I was just talking to a friend of mine.

嗯哼。

Mhmm.

他是我认识的第三个这样的人。

He's the third I know.

在一个刚刚经历动荡的国家里，显然他非常担忧。

In line in a just in a country, and, obviously, he's really concerned.

是的。

Yeah.

他非常关心自己能否拥有最好的人寿保险政策。

He's just really concerned about making sure he has the best life insurance policy.

我对他说：去试试 Policygenius 吧。

And I said, check out Policygenius.

是的。

Yeah.

别管工作保障了。

Forget about the job security.

是的。

Yeah.

更重要的是生活保障。

It's more about the more about the life security.

是的。

Yeah.

这只是一个刚跟我说的人，他说：嘿。

This was just somebody who said, like, hey.

我想确保，你知道，因为我当时排第七，然后我。

I wanna make sure, you know, because I was seventh in line, and then Some I was

第五。

fifth.

出现了一些进展。

There were some developments.

我当时就想，天哪。

And I was like, oh, man.

听起来那个国家现在情况挺混乱的。

It sounds like things are pretty crazy in that country right now.

他说道，是的。

He's like, yeah.

这个国家现在也挺混乱的。

It's pretty crazy in this country right now.

PolisGenius。

PolisGenius.

那是德国。

It's Germany.

我在说‘是的’。

And I'm talking yes.

我们是德国的列支敦士登。

We're German Liechtenstein.

用一份随您人生成长的保单守护您的家人。

Project your family with a policy that grows with your life.

通过Policygenius，您可以查看是否能找到每年276美元起、保障额度为100万美元的20年期人寿保险。

With Policygenius, you can see if you can find twenty year life insurance policies starting at $276 a year for $1,000,000 in coverage.

前往 policygenius.com/crooked 比较顶级保险公司的寿险报价，看看您能节省多少。

Head to policygenius.com/crooked to compare life insurance quotes from top companies and see how much you could save.

那就是 policygenius.com/crooked。

That's policygenius.com/crooked.

说到ICE和国土安全部，尽管参议院在周五一致通过了一项法案，为国土安全部（包括TSA）提供资金，但唯独不包括ICE和边境巡逻队，该机构在停摆近50天后仍处于关闭状态。

Speaking of ICE and DHS, the agency is still closed nearly fifty days into the shutdown despite the fact the Senate unanimously passed a bill on Friday that would fund all of DHS including TSA except for ICE and Border Patrol.

但随后，众议院共和党人却将胜利的果实拱手相让，拒绝了参议院一致通过的两党协议，转而通过了一项法案，为整个国土安全部再提供60天的资金，然后便休会两周。

But then, House Republicans decided to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by rejecting the Senate's unanimous bipartisan deal, passing a bill instead that would fund all of DHS for another sixty days, and then leaving town for a two week recess.

特朗普在签署了一项可能违法的行政命令以支付TSA员工工资后，立即站到了众议院一边——我想这现在正在发生，但这引发了疑问：为什么他几周前不这么做呢？

Trump then sided with the House right after signing a likely illegal executive order to pay TSA workers, which I guess is now happening, but raises the question of why didn't he do that weeks ago.

特朗普仍然没有放弃在国会通过《拯救法案》的努力，他在空军一号上被问及了这一切。

Trump also still hasn't given up on course in congress to pass the Save Act and was asked about all of this on Air Force One.

移民与海关执法局对我们的

ICE is vital to the well-being of our

国家至关重要，他们能够保护我们免受这些野兽的侵害。

country, and they are able to protect us from the animals.

我认为

I think

参议院表现得太过软弱了。

the Senate is playing playing it too soft.

我们面对的是非常病态的人。

We're dealing with very sick individuals.

民主党人病态了。

The Democrats are sick.

这有问题。

There's something wrong.

他们就像恐怖分子。

They're like terrorists.

领导人后来告诉我，他们没有足够的票数来终止这项法案。

Leader then told me that they do not have the votes to terminate the bill.

但是

But

这就是身为领导人的部分职责。

that's part of being a leader.

你必须争取到选票。

You have to get the votes.

你对

You have confidence in

我非常喜欢他。

I I I like him so much.

他是个非常优秀的人。

He's a he's a high quality person.

但这就是领导者的本质，你必须争取到选票。

But that's what being a leader is you have to get the votes.

你必须争取到选票。

You have to get the votes.

他听起来像个网络左派评论员。

He sounds like an an online online lefty pundit.

你得展现出领导力。

You gotta get you just got it's leadership.

你也可以是右翼评论员。

You or righty or or right wing pundit too.

你去争取选票吧。

You're You go get the votes.

去争取选票吧。

Go get the votes.

你什么意思？这就是领导者的本质？

What do you mean that's what being a leader's about?

你赢得选票。

You get the votes.

是的。

Yeah.

有一点需要指出的是，如果迈克·约翰逊把参议院一致通过的法案提交到众议院表决，它将获得大量共和党和民主党议员的支持。

The the like, the one thing just to note, that if Mike Johnson had brought the Senate bill that had passed unanimously to the floor of the House, it would have passed with a huge majority of Republicans and Democrats.

压倒性多数。

Huge majority.

它本可以顺利通过。

It would have gotten through fine.

所以他是在搞自己的政治。

So he's doing his own politics.

他是在保护自己，防范党内少数成员。

He's protecting himself against a few members of his caucus.

他担心特朗普。

He's worrying about Trump.

这就是正在这里发生的事情。

That's that's what's happening here.

所以现在，众议院共和党人以及参议院的迈克·李等人试图声称，参议院共和党人对他们的妥协感到后悔。

So now the House Republicans and and, like, Mike Lee and others in the Senate are trying to say that the Senate Republicans have, quote, buyer's remorse over their compromise.

史蒂夫·斯卡利塞就是对ABC这么说的。

That's what Steve Scalise told ABC.

而且，迈克·李说参议院应该立即重新召开会议。

And, you know, Mike Lee said the Senate should reconvene immediately.

他们怎么会搞砸成这样？

How did they fuck this up so badly?

你觉得这种说法站得住脚吗？

And, like, do you think that flies?

哦，原来我们真的后悔了。

The oh, so oh, we actually had buyer's remorse.

我们当时不知道。

We didn't know.

我们根本不知道，我们是在和民主党达成协议以重新开放政府。

We didn't know that we were cutting a deal with the Democrats to reopen the government.

他们怎么描述这事儿根本不重要。

It doesn't matter what say, how they describe it.

他们让国土安全部停摆，自己去度假了。

They left DHS shut down and went on vacation.

特朗普在支付运输安全局员工的工资，因为这成了最糟糕的新闻头条，但我看不出有什么理由说运输安全局员工该拿工资，而其他五万到十万同样在为海岸警卫队从事各种关键工作、却领不到薪水的人就不该拿——这些人的工作日常并不为旅行中的美国人所见。

Trump is paying TSA agents because that's what's been getting the worst headlines, but I don't see what the argument would be for why TSA agents should be paid, but not the other 50,000 or 100,000 people that are going without a salary who also work for the coast guard and do other but all kinds of vital work that are also working without p that but that Americans don't see day to day when they're traveling.

特朗普签署的行政令对运输安全局员工的薪资支付是追溯生效的。

It's also retroactive, the EO that Trump signed for TSA.

所以他现在补发了他们错过的两笔工资，但没人知道随着停摆持续，接下来会发生什么。

So he's now paid them for the two paychecks they missed, but no one knows what happens as we continue to go on and the shutdown drags on.

除非政府重新开放，否则未来根本没有资金来源来支付他们的工资。

Like, there's no pool of money to pay them in the future unless the government opens up.

所以我们又会回到原点。

So we're sort of gonna be right back where we were.

所以，像今天机场的排队情况好了一些，但几周后会发生什么？

So, like, the lines in the airports are better today, but, like, what happens a couple weeks from now?

是的。

Yeah.

让我们假设冗长辩论仍然有效，我们没有理由认为它会失效，尽管我能看到共和党人意识到他们摆脱当前困境的唯一途径是争取民主党人的支持，因此他们需要开始威胁要废除冗长辩论，以促使一些民主党人更愿意接受某种妥协方案。

So let's assume that the filibuster continues to hold, and we don't have a reason to think it won't, though I could see the Republicans realizing their only way out of this is with Democratic votes, and so they need to start threatening to remove the filibuster to get some Democrats to be more amenable to some kind of compromise.

这只是可能发展的一种路径。

That's just one path that this could go.

是的。

Yeah.

假设冗长辩论仍然有效。

Assume the filibuster is holding.

民主党人的立场非常简单。

Democrats have a pretty simple position.

我们周五曾与康涅狄格州参议员克里斯·墨菲讨论过这个问题。

We talked about this with Murphy Chris Murphy on Friday, senator from Connecticut.

我们不会为移民与海关执法局提供资金，除非进行改革，而我们已经提出了这些改革方案。

We won't pay for ICE unless there are reforms, and we've laid out those reforms.

最初，这次停摆是为了就改革的力度进行谈判。

Now, originally, when this shutdown began, it was so that there would be a negotiation over what the level of reform would be.

而所需的改革是不可能实现的。

And the reforms necessary are impossible.

如果没有改革就提供资金是不可接受的，因此最终会达成某种妥协。

Funding without the reforms would be unacceptable, so you'd end up with some kind of compromise.

左翼有一些人，还有一些并非左翼意识形态的网络斗士，认为任何形式的妥协都是不可接受的。

There are people on the left that say the the agency and and some other online warriors that are not ideologically from the left that, like, any kind of compromise is unacceptable.

与此同时，由于移民与海关执法局的资金来自那项庞大而全面的法案，改变它的唯一途径实际上就是通过资金拨款。

Meanwhile, because ICE is funded through the big beautiful bill, the only way of changing ICE is actually through funding it.

这不过是现实而已。

That's just the reality.

所以，这就是最初谈判的框架和背景。

So that's what the original contours and negotiation were.

但现在，我们实际上是在试图获取别的东西，即迫使ICE依靠那笔巨额法案中未经我们投票批准的资金生存。

But now, actually, we're we're actually trying to extract something else, which is to force ICE to live off the money that it spent on the big beautiful bill without our votes.

对吧？

Right?

但共和党人似乎无法在没有我们的情况下通过任何法案。

But Republicans don't seem to be able to pass something without us.

所以我不知道接下来会发生什么。

So I don't know what happens from here.

但再说一遍，我觉得这

But again, I this is

这就是我

what I

不理解的地方。

don't understand.

如果他们再通过一项调和法案，根据参议院一致通过的协议，他们有能力在没有民主党支持的情况下为ICE拨款。

They have the if they do another reconciliation bill, they have the ability per the deal that was passed unanimously in the Senate to fund ICE without the Democrats.

因为他们只需要参议院的50票，51票，以及众议院的多数票。

Because they just need 50 votes in the Senate, 51 votes in the Senate, and they need a majority in the House.

所以干脆像参议院中共和党和民主党都投票同意的那样，把国土安全部的其余部分全部开放，然后民主党可以说：我们并没有投票资助ICE或给ICE更多资金。

So just fucking open the rest of DHS like everyone else voted to do in the Senate, Republicans and Democrats, and then the Democrats can say, like, we didn't vote to fund ICE or to give ICE more money.

但如果共和党真的如此重视ICE，他们可以通过预算和解程序来资助ICE。

But if the Republicans really feel so strongly about ICE, they can fund ICE through reconciliation.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为这最终归结为他们如何为2000亿美元的追加拨款以及ICE的额外资金买单。

I I do think this starts to boil down to how they pay for the $200,000,000,000 supplemental plus additional money for ICE.

对。

Yeah.

然后我们就回到了上一次讨论的问题：为什么通过新的预算法案如此困难。

And then we get back to our last conversation about why passing a a new budget bill is just so hard.

是的。

Yeah.

我只想说，这一切中的一个问题是，如果他们真的无法在没有民主党支持的情况下达成协议，而众议院拒绝接受民主党愿意接受的任何方案，参议院又不废除冗长辩论，那么在加大和解程序的政治压力下，他们怎么可能在不资助国土安全部的情况下为伊朗提供额外拨款？

I will just say, like, one one one hiccup in all of this is if they really can't get to some kind of a deal without Democrats, the if House won't accept anything Democrats will accept, and the Senate won't get rid of the filibuster, added political pressure on reconciliation, if they how can they possibly do a supplemental for Iran without funding DHS?

你告诉我，我们不资助海岸警卫队，却要为一场没人投票支持的战争购买炸弹？

You're telling me we're not gonna fund the Coast Guard, but we're gonna buy bombs for a war nobody voted for?

他们认为这将会发生，这可能也是压力的一部分。

They think it's gonna and that's probably part of the pressure too.

就好像说，哦，你们要一直让所有东西停摆。

It's like where, oh, you're gonna keep you're gonna keep everything shut down.

也许他们可以把拨款法案聚焦在国土安全部上，而不是直接关联战争，但这看起来也他妈疯狂。

There maybe they can make the funding bill about DHS and not necessarily the war, which also seems fucking crazy.

我之前提到过，参议院和众议院都将进入两周的休会期。

I mentioned earlier that both the Senate and the House are in a two week recess.

TMZ现在变得非常政治化了。

TMZ has become very politicized now.

这个媒体机构迫切想要获取国会成员在TSA工作人员据TMZ报道‘卖血维生’时的花边新闻。

The outlet, they're hungry for the the juicy details of what members of Congress are doing while TSA staff are, quote, according to TMZ, selling their blood to keep a roof over their heads.

他们在迪士尼世界抓到了林赛·格雷厄姆，并发布了几张照片，标题为：‘林赛·格雷厄姆在政府停摆期间生活在幻想世界’。

They caught Lindsey Graham at Disney World, and posted some of these photos with the headline, Lindsey Graham living in Fantasyland as government shutdown drags on.

TMZ还发布了一篇关于民主党国会议员罗伯特·加西亚在拉斯维加斯的消息，但加西亚回应称，他父亲住在拉斯维加斯。

TMZ also posted a story about Democratic congressman Robert Garcia being Vegas, though Garcia responded by pointing out that his dad lives in Vegas.

他们还引用了议长迈克·约翰逊的话：‘本不该让我们所有人都回家’，明确指出众议院本可以简单通过参议院的妥协方案。

And they quote, Speaker Mike Johnson should have never sent us all home, making it clear that the House could have simply passed the Senate's compromise.

加西亚还说：‘把我们叫回来吧。’

Garcia also said, like, call us back.

我们会回来的。

We'll come back.

我们随时都可以通过法案，你知道的？

We'll we'll pass at any time, you know?

你觉得这次休会作为共和党在这一政治博弈中的额外压力点，你怎么看？

What do you think about the recess as an additional pain point for Republicans in the politics of all this?

你认为民主党仅仅像加西亚那样对休会发表声明就足够了吗？

And do you think it's enough for Democrats to just say what Garcia did about recess?

共和党人，因为唐纳德·特朗普、参议院共和党人和众议院共和党人之间的争斗。

Republicans, because of a fight between Donald Trump, Senate Republicans, and House Republicans.

争斗就在他们之间发生。

That's who the fight is between.

他们让国土安全部继续运作，对吧？这个部门本应保护我们免受各种威胁。

Kept the Department of Homeland Security, right, meant to to protect us from all kinds of threats.

而这些威胁在他们挑起的战争时期正在上升。

Which are, you know, rising in a time of war that they started.

他们自己内部一直无法就资助国土安全部达成一致。

They they have not been able to come to agreement amongst themselves to fund DHS.

但与民主党人已经达成协议。

There is an agreement with Democrats.

我们达成了协议。

We made one.

我们在参议院以100比0全票通过，没有任何反对，通过了一项两党共同资助国土安全部的法案。

We passed a 100 to zero in the Senate, not a single objection, a 100 to zero, passed a a bipartisan funding bill to cover DHS.

它允许移民与海关执法局继续运作，对吧？因为ICE从那项宏伟的法案中获得了数百亿美元的资金，这正是共和党人所希望的。

It to and and and allows ICE to continue to operate, right, according to what Republicans wanted because ICE has a sitting on tens of billions of dollars from the big beautiful bill.

但在最后时刻，共和党人却放弃了这一方案，直接离开了首都，就在事情还在进行时就走了。

And in the last moments, Republicans abandoned that and then left the city, Just left while that is ongoing.

所以，当然，我们当然应该利用这一点。

So I like, we of course, we should be exploiting it.

而且，是的，罗伯特·加西亚可以去拉斯维加斯逛逛，随便

And and, yeah, Robert Garcia can go visit Vegas, you know, put a

几个人想做什么就做什么，因为你知道，民主党人现在根本与此事无关。

couple can do whatever they want because it's like like, you know, you want Democrats have nothing to do with this at this point.

即使民主党人回到华盛顿，在国会里闲逛，他们也什么都做不了。

If Democrats went back to DC and were hanging out in Congress, they still can't do anything.

是的。

Yeah.

就像

Like,

他们控制不了国会。

They don't control Congress.

他们搞不定，也无法替共和党人解决他妈的问题。

They can't figure out they can't solve the fucking Republicans' problem for them.

我们现在在政治上做了太多太多事了。

We we do so much, like, so much of politics now.

这些都只是些象征性的斗争。

It's just like all these kinds of symbolic battles.

事实上，林赛·格雷厄姆在迪士尼乐园出现，这种行为本身就是一种象征，而且视觉上很糟糕。

And like, the truth is Lindsey Graham being at Disney World is like a symbol is an aesthetically bad thing.

对吧？

Right?

因为他本该在华盛顿工作。

Because he should be in DC working.

问题是国会现在没有在开会。

The problem is Congress isn't in session