本集简介
双语字幕
仅展示文本字幕，不包含中文音频；想边听边看，请使用 Bayt 播客 App。
好的。
Alright.
欢迎回到《拯救世界》播客。
Welcome back to pod save the world.
这是一期特别附加节目，向你们更新自周六录制以来唐纳德·特朗普对伊朗发动的这场疯狂的、主动选择的政权更迭战争中的重大进展。
This is a bonus episode to update you guys on the major developments in Donald Trump's insane regime change war of choice with Iran since we recorded on Saturday.
所以我们将逐一梳理最新的行动细节。
So we're gonna tick through the latest operational details.
我们将深入分析伊朗出人意料的地区性回应。
We'll dig into Iran's, surprising response that's regional.
我们还会播放一些特朗普和国防部长皮特·海格塞斯的录音，海格塞斯今天终于发声，谈到了政府那套古怪、混乱的沟通策略以及政策上的前后矛盾。
We'll play some clips from Trump and then secretary of defense Pete Hegzeth, who finally spoke today and covered the administration's bizarre messaging strategy and incoherence and policy incoherence as well.
最后，我们会讨论民主党迄今为止的反应——好的、坏的，以及我们真正希望听到的内容。
And then finally, we'll talk about the Democratic Party's response so far, the good, the bad, and then really what we'd like to hear.
我们将在周二再次录制，照常于周三早晨发布。我认为下一期节目会深入探讨伊朗的权力继承计划、对教派暴力和内战的担忧，以及其他更多内容。
We will record again on Tuesday for a Wednesday morning release per usual, and we'll use that episode, I think, to geek out on, you know, Iranian succession plans, maybe concerns about sectarian violence and civil war, and much more.
所以，如果你还没有的话，请在YouTube以及你收听播客的任何平台订阅《Pod Save the World》，因为正如我们在周六所说，本，到目前为止，这场战争的媒体报道简直糟糕透顶。
So if you have not yet, please subscribe to pod save the world on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts because, you know, as we said on Saturday, Ben, a lot of the coverage of this war so far has been absolutely horrendous.
这让我想起了2003年观看伊拉克战争报道时的创伤后应激障碍。
It is giving me PTSD from 2003 and watching the Iraq war coverage.
我不知道你有没有看到皮特·海格塞斯和参联会主席莱辛·凯恩的记者会，但看到他面对那些新成立的虚假五角大楼记者团接受提问，真的让人无比沮丧。
I don't know if you caught Pete Hegseth's press conference with Raisin Kane, the chairman of the joint chiefs, but seeing him there take questions from, like, the new fake Pentagon press corps was absolutely demoralizing.
是的。
Yeah.
我们稍微体验了一下，当你的国防部长是福克斯新闻《周末福克斯与朋友》的主持人时，那种媒体沦为服从国家机器的感觉。
We got a little taste of what it's like to have a compliance state media with a Fox and Friends weekend Yep.
就像那些线索的交汇点，实在让人不安。
Anchor as your secretary of defense.
不。
Like, the the convergence of those threads was not very reassuring,
没错。
No.
这确实令人极度沮丧。
It was, profoundly demoralizing.
所以，再次请大家在YouTube和你收听播客的任何平台订阅《Pod Save the World》，因为我们正在努力提供真实的报道。
So, again, please subscribe to Pod Day of the World on YouTube, wherever you get your podcasts because we are trying to do, real coverage here.
我们是在周一太平洋时间中午录制的。
So we're recording at midday Pacific time on Monday.
SENTCOM称，美军迄今已摧毁了一千多个目标，包括伊朗的舰船、潜艇、伊斯兰革命卫队指挥中心和导弹阵地。
SENTCOM says that US forces have destroyed more than a thousand targets so far, including Iranian ships, subs, IRGC command centers, missile sites.
以色列人也打击了数百个目标，尤其是第一波政权更迭目标，其中包括伊朗最高层的政治和军事官员。
The Israelis have hit hundreds of targets as well, especially that first wave of regime change targets that included top Iranian political and military officials.
自从我们周六录制以来，伊朗已确认最高领袖已去世。
Since we recorded Saturday, Ben, Iran has confirmed that the supreme leader is dead.
我认为他是被以色列的空袭击毙的，情报由美国提供，或者至少这是自那以后的报道内容。
He was killed, I think, in an Israeli strike, with intelligence provided by The US or, you know, that's what's been reported since.
这在伊朗历史上是一个翻天覆地的事件，因为自1989年以来，这个人一直掌权，现在将引发一场可能需要一些时间才能完成的权力交接过程。
So this is just this is a seismic event in Iranian history as this guy has been in charge since 1989, and it will now set off a succession process that will probably take a little while.
似乎伊朗总统在袭击中丧失了行动能力，无法再继续执政，权力已移交给了其他人。
It also seems like the president of Iran was incapacitated in the strike to the point where he can't run the country anymore as that authority has been delegated to somebody else.
已有四名美国军人确认死亡。
Four service members are confirmed dead American service members.
我认为他们都是陆军士兵，在科威特遭伊朗无人机袭击身亡。
I believe all were in the army and were hit by an Iranian drone in Kuwait.
据报道，还有三架美国F-15战机在科威特上空被击落，属于友军误伤。
Three American f fifteens were shot down over Kuwait as well, reportedly in a friendly fire incident.
它们是被科威特的防空系统击中的。
They were shot at by Kuwaiti air defenses.
幸运的是，六名飞行员都成功弹射逃生。
Thank god all six of them ejected safely.
特朗普和他的各种表态机会——我们稍后会谈到——称这次行动可能再持续四周或五周，但他拒绝为这一估计设定具体的时间表或目标。
Trump and his various messaging opportunities, we'll get into that in a minute, said the operation could last four more weeks or maybe five more weeks, so he refuses to put a specific timeline or goal behind that estimate.
他还拒绝排除向伊朗派遣地面部队的可能性，这值得我们关注。
He's also refused to rule out putting US boots on the ground in Iran, so that's something to look forward to.
完全可以想象未来美国或以色列会发动某种特种部队行动，去夺取伊朗的核材料，例如。
Could certainly imagine some sort of future US or Israeli, like, commando operation to get, Iran's nuclear materials, for example.
真主党现在已经卷入其中。
Hezbollah is now involved.
他们正在向以色列北部发射火箭。
They're firing rockets at Northern Israel.
以色列方面也在进行回击。
The Israelis are responding in kind.
在美国驻外使领馆发生了一些非常可怕的事件，这些设施在黎巴嫩或其他穆斯林国家如巴基斯坦遭到袭击。
There have been some very scary incidents at US embassies and consulates, where, those facilities have gotten attacked in places like Lebanon or other Muslim countries like Pakistan.
伊朗已有数百人死亡。
Hundreds are dead in Iran.
至少有十人在以色列因伊朗导弹和无人机袭击丧生。
At least 10 people have been killed in Israel by Iranian missiles and drones.
伊朗无人机还在阿联酋造成三人死亡，数十人受伤。
Iranian drones also killed three people in The UAE, injured dozens more there.
他们在巴林杀死了一人，在伊拉克两人，在科威特一人，在黎巴嫩则有数十人。
They killed one person in Bahrain, two in Iraq, one in Kuwait, and dozens in Lebanon.
我假设黎巴嫩的伤亡是以色列和伊朗双方火力共同造成的。
I assume the Lebanon casualty's ban are a combination of Israeli and Iranian fire.
卡塔尔和阿曼也有不少人受伤。
A number of people have been wounded in Qatar and Oman as well.
顺便说一下，这些伤亡数据来自半岛电视台的实时统计。
And by the way, those casualty stats were coming from a running tally by Al Jazeera.
特朗普总统本周末并未就伊朗问题发表全国性重要演讲。
President Trump did not deliver a major address to the nation about Iran over the weekend.
白宫也没有安排任何高级官员参加周日的访谈节目。
The White House did not book any senior officials on the Sunday talk shows.
他们只是发布了特朗普的一些奇怪视频信息，而特朗普则偶尔接受记者电话采访，给出一些混乱的表态。
They just released these bizarre video messages from Trump, and then Trump, you know, sporadically took calls from reporters and offered sort of incoherent lines of messaging.
特朗普今天终于举行了一场公开讲话，国防部长海格塞斯和参联会主席凯恩也分别发表了讲话。
Trump finally did an event where he spoke publicly today as did secretary Hegseth and chairman Kane.
我们稍后会为您播放所有这些内容。
We'll play all that for you in a minute.
但这真的堪称一个如何不进行沟通的典型案例。
But this really has been, like, a case study in how not to, communicate.
所以，本，我们稍后会深入探讨伊朗的回应。
So, Ben, we'll get into the Iranian nest, response deeper, in a minute.
但你对周六以来所见的情况有什么初步反应吗？
But any initial reactions to from you to, like, what you've seen since Saturday?
我认为最初的反应是，我们对这场战争的所有担忧都在成真：美国方面，从特朗普的言论到赫格塞斯的说法，完全缺乏一致性，根本不清楚目标是什么，而似乎各方都有一种持续行动的势头；伊朗的回应虽然混乱，但范围广泛。
I think the initial reaction is that all of our concerns about this war are playing out in the sense that there's a total lack of coherence from The US, from what Trump's saying, what HEXAP is saying about what the objectives are, and there just seems there'll be a lot of momentum to keep doing stuff, that the Iranian response is chaotic but widespread.
这就像一把机关枪掉到地上，朝四面八方开火。
You know, it's like a machine gun being dropped on the floor firing in all directions.
没人知道接下来会发生什么，而这正是当你推翻一个政权却毫无后续计划时会发生的情况——而且这个政权比委内瑞拉政府要深得多、武装得也更强大。
And that nobody knows where this is going, which is what happens when you decapitate a regime with no plan for what comes next, and that regime is much deeper and more heavily armed than, say, the Venezuelan government was.
所以，汤米，现在真是一个令人不安的时刻。
So it's a very unsettling moment right now, Tommy.
是的
Yeah.
那种机关枪掉在地上乱射的比喻，完美地描述了伊朗的行为，因为他们持续攻击的不仅是美国在中东和以色列的基地，还包括这些海湾国家。
That's the machine gun firing on the floor analogy is is a perfect description of what Iran has been doing because they they continue to target not just US bases in The Middle East and Israel, but also these Gulf countries.
周一，伊朗袭击了卡塔尔和沙特阿拉伯的能源设施。
On Monday, Iran attacked energy sites in Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
而在上周末，伊朗向阿联酋、卡塔尔、科威特、巴林和约旦发射了数百枚导弹和无人机。
And then over the weekend, Iran fired hundreds of missiles and drones at The UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan.
我想我们在周六讨论时，本，他们还没攻击阿曼，但现在他们已经这么做了。
I think when we talked on Saturday, Ben, they had not fired at Oman yet, but now they have.
伊朗甚至向塞浦路斯的一个英国军事基地发射了一架无人机，尽管英国并未参与这些行动。
And Iran even fired a drone at a British military base in Cyprus, although Britain The UK is not involved in these operations.
绝大多数导弹和无人机都被导弹防御系统拦截了，但并非全部。
So, the vast majority of these missiles and drones were intercepted by, missile defense systems, but not all of them.
许多目标是民用基础设施，比如高层建筑和酒店。
A lot of the targets were civilian infrastructure, like high rises and hotels.
同样，这导致了大量伤亡，包括在伊朗境内，本。
Again, that's led to a bunch of casualties, including in, in Iran, Ben.
但看起来，伊朗的算盘似乎是向所有这些海湾国家开火，迫使它们施压美国和以色列停止战争。
But it it just seems like again, it seems like the Iranian calculation here was shoot at all these Gulf countries, get them to pressure The US and Israel to stop the war.
但时间会证明一切，据我看来，这似乎彻底适得其反。
But, like, time will tell, but this seems to have catastrophically backfired as far as I can tell.
那些最初对美国和以色列行动持谨慎态度的国家，现在反而在谴责伊朗。
Like, countries that seemed initially wary of what The US and Israel were doing are now denouncing Iran.
有些迹象表明，那些最初禁止美国利用其领土或领空开展反伊朗行动的海湾国家，可能正在重新考虑这些立场。
There's some sense that the Gulf countries that initially had barred The US from flying, anti Iran missions out of their territory or through their airspace might be reconsidering those views.
也许这其中一部分原因在于伊朗已经失去了指挥与控制能力。
Maybe some of this has to do with Iran, not having command and control anymore.
现在没有集中的决策机制，所以一些随机的指挥官可能会毫无理由地向塞浦路斯发射导弹。
There's not, like, centralized decision making, so you have some random group of, you know, commanders firing at Cyprus for no reason.
但我认为，关键问题依然存在：伊朗还能维持多久的反击能力？
But I do think, you know, the big question still remains, how long will Iran have the capacity to respond?
他们会耗尽弹道导弹和发射器吗？在他们攻击的目标耗尽拦截导弹之前，他们会先耗尽吗？
Will they run out of ballistic missiles and launchers, and will they run out of them before the places they're targeting run out of interceptor missiles?
因为正如我们在周六讨论的，这些拦截导弹的库存非常低，而且非常昂贵。
Because as we discussed on Saturday, those interceptor stockpiles are very low, and they are very expensive.
所以，伊朗的无人机成本在20到50美元之间，而许多美国的拦截导弹每枚要花费数百万美元。
So, like, an Iranian drone costs between $20 and $50, while many of these US interceptor missiles cost several million dollars each.
最后，在伊朗方面，本，今天早上我看到一些能源分析师称，霍尔木兹海峡的航运量下降了85%。
Finally, on the Iran front, Ben, traffic through the Strait Of Hormuz is down 85% according to some energy analysts I saw this morning.
原油价格上涨了58%，幅度很大，但还不算灾难性的。
Crude oil prices are up between 58%, which is a lot, but not catastrophic.
伊朗已经袭击了霍尔木兹海峡的船只。
Iran has attacked ships in the Strait Of Hormuz.
不过，我认为他们还没有布设水雷，否则真的会彻底阻断航运。
I don't think they have mined it yet, though, which would be, you know, really stopping things up.
所以，本，我不确定。
So, Ben, I don't know.
我始终对伊朗向该地区每个国家倾泻火力感到惊讶。
I I just continue to be surprised by Iran kinda unloading the clip on every single country in the region.
我想他们的意图就是制造混乱。
I guess the idea was just to create chaos.
但你怎么看待他们的战略？
But what do you make of of their strategy?
我认为他们的信息是：只要暴力和混乱持续向我们袭来，我们就会把暴力和混乱施加给所有人，包括几乎所有这些海湾国家——它们几乎都有美军驻扎。
Well, I I think the message is that, is that so long as, violence and chaos is being rained on us, we're gonna bring violence and chaos to everybody, including all these Gulf countries, nearly all of whom have some US military presence in them.
并不是说这是个好策略。
Not saying it's a good strategy.
从他们攻击的无差别目标来看，这无疑是可憎的。
It's certainly reprehensible in terms of the indiscriminate targets that they're shooting at.
但如果这其中有什么逻辑，那就是这一点。
But if there is a logic, it's it's that.
他们的目标是让这场战争对地区和全球能源市场造成如此大的动荡，从而迫使各方施压要求停战。
It's that we need to make this war so destabilizing to the region, to global energy markets, that there's just a pressure to make it stop.
你看。
And look.
他们可能因为拦截系统没有造成巨大的物理破坏，但心理上的冲击却是巨大的。
They may not be inflicting, you know, tremendous physical damage because of the interceptors, but they are inflicting tremendous damage psychologically.
如果你在迪拜，这座城市的运转依赖于安全——为国际商务旅客和旅游业提供安全保障。
If you are in Dubai, that city relies upon security, you know, security for international business travelers and tourism.
这种安全感如今已被彻底摧毁。
That is shattered right now.
我的意思是，这对迪拜可能产生长期影响。
I mean, that could have long term effects for Dubai.
我看到他们还袭击了阿联酋的一些数据中心。
I saw that they also hit some data centers in The UAE.
是的。
Yeah.
我们当然在向他们开火。
We're certainly firing at them.
阿联酋正努力吸引，正如我们之前讨论的，数百亿美元的投资来建设数据中心。
Well, The UAE is trying to get, you know, and is getting, as we've talked about, hundreds of billions of dollars in investments to build data centers there.
你对这些投资现在怎么看？
How do you feel about that investment these days?
你有没有考虑在海湾地区建设数据中心？
You know, are you looking to build data centers in The Gulf?
所以，从战略角度来看，他们正在制造一种不安全感。
So there is kind of a strategic logic in the sense that they're creating an insecurity.
只要我们的政权不安全，我们就可以把一切都毁掉，让谁都不安全——这当然很危险，但确实有其逻辑。
So long as our regime is not secure, you know, we can burn it all down and nobody's secure, which, again, is dangerous, but there there is some rationale.
此外，海湾地区本来就更近。
It's also the case that The Gulf is just closer.
你知道的？
You know?
尤其是无人机，对伊朗来说更容易瞄准。
So with drones in particular, it's an easier shot for the Iranians.
至于你提到的拦截器问题，这是一场与时间的赛跑，因为我推测以色列和美国正试图在拦截器耗尽之前，尽可能多地摧毁弹道导弹发射设施，包括生产设施和发射装置。
And then to your point about the interceptors, it's a bit of a race against time because I I presume that what Israel and The United States are trying to do is just take out as many ballistic missile sites, whether it's production facilities, launchers, before they basically run out of interceptors.
因为如果这场冲突持续下去，而伊朗继续以这种波次发射弹道导弹和无人机，它们就会越来越多地突破防空系统，因为防空系统的拦截弹正在耗尽。
Because the longer this thing goes on, if Iran can continue to fire things, ballistic missiles and drones in these kinds of waves, they're gonna get through more and more of the air defense systems because the air defense systems are just depleted.
所以，这也确实是一个巨大的风险。
And so that's a real risk too here.
我的意思是，特朗普，人们总在谈论，好像特朗普什么时候会停止这场战争似的。
I mean, Trump you know, people keep talking about this as if when might Trump stop the war.
我也并不认为伊朗会因为特朗普停止而自动停手。
I also don't think there's any guarantee that Iran
对。
Right.
就像十二天战争那样，尽管我认为这是一场持续的战争，但伊朗并不会因为特朗普停手就停止行动。
Like, as in the twelve day war, although I think it's one war, that Iran just stops because Trump stops.
如果只是因为我们拦截器快用完了，就说好吧，停手了。
If if if just just because we may may run low on interceptors and say, alright.
暂停一下，各位。
Time out, guys.
我们暂停一下。
Let let's pause.
伊朗人可能会继续发射。
The Iranians could keep firing.
因此，问题在于他们制造、储存或隐藏无人机和导弹的能力，能否挺过这次初期的猛烈打击，以及他们未来还能造成多大破坏。
So it is a question of how much their ability to manufacture or store or hide drones and missiles can weather this initial onslaught in terms of how much damage they can do going forward.
是的。
Yeah.
我们甚至不知道，如果真的要停止，谁会做出这个决定。
We don't even know who would make the decision to to stop if it it were up to a run right
现在。
now.
嗯，你提到的指挥与控制点非常重要，因为感觉像是流媒体领袖预见到自己可能被杀，所以提前进行了授权。
Well, the you made a I think the command and control point you made is essential because it feels like there were delegations made by the stream leader anticipating he might be killed.
我认为阿巴斯·阿拉奇在某个电视节目中也说过，你看。
And I think Abbas Arachi said as much on on, like, some TV show he was on that, like, well, look.
你知道，我们不再有集中的指挥和控制，因为我们知道，如果你杀了高层领导人，我们希望这些人能够独立行动。
You know, we no longer have centralized command and control because we knew that if you killed, you know, top leaders that we wanted the these guys be able to act independently.
所以我们真的不知道现在发生了什么。
So we just really don't know what's happening.
没错。
Well, that's right.
而且你看。
And and look.
《纽约时报》有一篇不可避免的报道，讲的是最高领袖被杀以及那些出色的情报工作。
I don't there was a the inevitable story in the Times about the killing of the supreme leader and all this great intelligence.
我的意思是，他当时就在自己的办公室里。
I mean, he he was in his office.
你知道吗？
You know?
是的。
Like Yeah.
我的意思是我对中情局没有丝毫不敬，但确实如此。
I mean, I I I've no no no disrespect to the CIA, but Right.
我的意思是，哇，真厉害。
It'd be like, you know, wow.
我们竟然发现总统在白宫里。
We figured out that the president's in the White House.
你知道的。
You know?
嗯，没错。
Uh-huh.
但几乎看起来，如果这位最高领导人想活命，他可能反而希望被‘牺牲’。
But it almost seemed like this if the screen leader wanted to survive, like, you know, the he may he might have wanted to be, quote, unquote, martyred.
对。
Right.
你知道吧？
You know?
我不知道。
I don't know.
我的意思是，他他妈的就是个混蛋。
I mean, he's a fucking asshole.
我的意思是，你根本不会对他有任何同情。
I I don't you know, it's not not at all someone you have any sympathy for.
但也许他向下级下达了命令，说：你知道吗？
But it may be that he delegated down and said, you know what?
把弹夹打光。
Unload the clip.
你知道吧？
You know?
为了防备这种斩首行动，他们可能命令每一位拥有无人机或导弹的伊斯兰革命卫队指挥官：如果我们死了，就直接把弹夹打光。
In anticipation of this happening in some decapitation, they might have said to every IRGC commander with a drone or a missile, the orders to you are if we die, just unload the clip.
是的。
Yeah.
而且因为这正是感觉正在发生的事。
And and because that's what it feels like is happening.
是的。
Yeah.
我不知道中央情报局做了什么样的情报收集。
It is don't know what intelligence collection the CIA did.
我对你的反应也是一样，就是最高领袖清楚自己面临的威胁，是的。
I had the same reaction to you, which was like the supreme leader knowing the threat he faced Yeah.
他当时就在地面上自己的办公室里，而紧挨着他的是所有伊朗最高政治和军事领导人的会议。
Was above ground in his own office and adjacent to him was a meeting of all the top, like, Iranian political and military leaders.
这有多愚蠢都难以形容。
I I it's hard to overstate how stupid that was.
我的意思是，事后看来很明显，但我真不敢相信他们当时没意识到这一点。
I mean, obvious it's obvious in hindsight, but I can't believe they didn't realize it, in the moment.
我的意思是，这或许能解释为什么袭击发生在白天，为什么发生在周末。
I mean, does maybe that that does, I think, explain why the strikes happen in the daytime, why they happen on the weekend.
上周末我跟一个人聊过，他说特朗普不喜欢在工作日发动战争，因为他不想扰乱市场。
I also was talking to someone over the weekend who said Trump doesn't like to start wars, during the weekday because he doesn't wanna rattle the markets.
我猜这可能是真的。
I bet that is true.
但你说得对，关于这场竞赛。
But you're right on the race.
我的意思是，据我所读到的，听起来弹道导弹发射器才是关键瓶颈。
I mean, it is I think I from what I've read, it sounds like the, ballistic missile launchers are the choke point.
所以我认为，美国和以色列正在拼命摧毁尽可能多的这类发射器。
I So think The US and Israel are probably rushing to take out as many of those as possible.
不过，我刚才看了福克斯新闻，他们一个大字幕说，伊朗的无人机更难被拦截。
That said, I mean, I was just watching the Fox News, I think, and one of their big chyrons is that the drones, Iran's drones, have proven harder to intercept.
而且归根结底，这些无人机从很多地方都能轻易发射。
And ultimately, like, those are easier to fly from a lot of places.
伊朗拥有更多的这种无人机。
Iran has more of them.
你只需要为这些无人机设置好GPS坐标，它们搭载的像是割草机引擎，可以飞行约2000公里，然后按照GPS导航飞向目标点。
You just sort of, like, set the GPS coordinators in these drones, which, you know, they have, like, lawnmower engines, and they can but they can fly, like, 2,000 kilometers and just follow a GPS to a point.
因此，要完全消除这种威胁可能需要非常非常长的时间。
So that threat could take a long, long, long time to fully neutralize.
别忘了，这些伊朗无人机已经被俄罗斯在乌克兰使用过。
And and remember that those drones, those Iranian drones, have been used in Ukraine by the Russians.
俄罗斯正在用这些无人机攻击乌克兰目标，而乌克兰那边也有防空系统。
And the Russians are firing those drones at Ukrainian targets, and there were air defense systems there too.
我的意思是，我们在乌克兰战场上见过这些无人机，它们能造成巨大的破坏。
I mean, these things, we've seen them on the battlefield in Ukraine have a a huge amount of of damage that they can cause.
所以这就是为什么这场冲突会持续拖下去的原因。
So this is the point about the this keeps dragging on.
要彻底消灭他们所有的无人机是不可能的。
It's it's gonna be impossible to eliminate all their drones.
这些本质上就像玩具飞机，但却能造成巨大破坏。
These are like, you know, you know, toy airplanes essentially, but but can do a lot of damage.
所以，你知道，是的，他们的弹道导弹终归会用完，但我不确定这些无人机会不会。
And and so this you know, yes, they can their ballistic missiles are are are a a, you know, a tool that is gonna run out at some point, but I'm not sure that these drones will.
是的。
Yeah.
弹道导弹能造成更大破坏，但从长远来看，谁知道他们能维持这些无人机多久。
The ballistic missiles can do more damage, but, right, in the long term, like, who knows how long they'll have these drones.
周一，特朗普总统终于就这场战争发表了讲话。
So on Monday, president Trump finally spoke about the war.
他从周六早上就开始公开谈论了。
He started on Saturday morning in public.
这并不是一次面向全国的重要讲话。
It was not a major address to the nation.
这更像是在一场早已安排好的、为三人颁发荣誉勋章的仪式上，顺便提了一下伊朗战争。
It was like a little Iran war topper at a, like, think preexisting ceremony to award the medal of honor to three people.
这是他在讲话中提到的一些内容。
Here's a bit of what he had to say in his remarks.
我非常自豪地推动了奥巴马总统签署的伊朗核协议的废除。
I was very proud to have knocked out the Iran nuclear deal by president Barack Hussein Obama.
那是一个可怕、可怕且危险的文件。
That was a horrible, horrible, dangerous document.
他们本可以在三年前就拥有核武器，并且已经使用了。
They would have had nuclear weapons three years ago, and they would have used them.
这是我们最后一次最好的机会，来采取我们现在正在做的行动，消除这个病态而邪恶的政权所带来的不可接受的威胁。
This was our last best chance to strike what we're doing right now and eliminate the intolerable threats posed by this sick and sinister regime.
我们目前已经大大超出了原先的时间预测，但无论时间多长，都没关系。
We're already substantially ahead of our time projections, but whatever the time is, it's okay.
无论需要什么，我们从一开始就始终如此，我们最初预计是四到五周，但我们有能力持续更长时间。
Whatever it takes, we will always and we have from right from the get beginning, we projected four to five weeks, but, we have capability to go far longer than that.
无论今天有人说了什么，我们都会继续做下去。
We'll do it whatever somebody said today.
他们说，哦，如果总统在那之后想快速完成，他会感到无聊。
They said, oh, well, if the president wants to do it really quickly after that, he'll get bored.
我不会感到无聊。
I don't get bored.
这件事一点都无聊。
There's nothing boring about this.
我们原本预计用四周时间终止军事领导层，而正如你所知，这实际上只用了一个小时就完成了。
We also projected four weeks to terminate the military leadership, and as you know, that was done in about an hour.
所以我们在这方面远远领先于计划进度。
So we're ahead of schedule there by a lot.
我们这里还有很多优秀的服役人员，就在这个美丽的建筑里。
We have a lot of great service members here with us too in this beautiful building.
是不是很美？
Ain't it beautiful?
我们正在对这座建筑进行一些扩建。
We're adding on to the building a little bit.
我们正在改善这栋大楼。
We're improving the building.
看到那漂亮的窗帘了吗？
See that nice drape?
当窗帘现在拉开时，你会看到一个非常深的洞。
When that comes down right now, you see a very, very deep hole.
但大约一年半后，你将看到一栋非常美丽的建筑。
But in about a year and a half from now, you're gonna see a very, very beautiful building.
这些窗帘是我第一个任期内挑选的。
I picked those drapes in my first term.
我一直喜欢金色。
I always like gold.
迈克尔特意以伊核协议的批评来激怒你，正如我们最伟大的总统所说，任务完成，朋友。
Michael, specifically led with the JCPOA criticism to trigger you and, as our our our greatest president said, mission accomplished, my friend.
所以，本，你看。
So, Ben, and look.
我认为听众从这一点应该体会到的，就是这种混乱不堪。
I think what what listeners should take away from that, superhero, is just the incoherence.
当你纵观特朗普从周六至今的所有言论时，情况只会更糟。
Like, it gets worse when you look at the totality of Trump's statements from Saturday till now.
对吧？
Right?
周六，他把政权更迭当作目标来谈。
On Saturday, he talked about regime change as a goal.
他呼吁伊朗人民起来反抗。
He told the Iranian people to rise up.
但今天，这已经不再是宣传的一部分了。
Today, that was just not part of the messaging.
周六那段关于战争的视频，回顾了伊朗自1979年以来对两国的所谓‘侵略’和积怨，堪称经典片段。
The Saturday video statement about the war went through these, like, greatest hits of Iranian, aggression and grievances with the two countries starting in 1979.
周一的新说法是，伊朗正试图重建其核武器计划，我不知道这是否属实，但无论如何，这绝不是迫在眉睫的威胁。
The new spin on Monday is that Iran was trying to rebuild its nuclear weapons program, which I don't know may or may not be true, but it certainly wasn't an imminent threat.
然后他提出了一个新说法，我们后来从赫萨特那里也听到了，称伊朗的弹道导弹项目将为其核野心提供保护伞，但这完全是胡说八道，因为美国和以色列现在正在猛烈轰炸伊朗的军事目标，未来也完全有能力这么做。
And then he tries out this new line that we'll later hear from Hexath, which is that Iran's ballistic missile program would provide a shield for its nuclear ambitions, which is complete and total bullshit as evidenced by the fact that The US and Israel are pounding the fuck out of Iran's military targets now and would have been able to do so in the future.
所以大家应该完全无视这个说法。
So everyone should write that off.
此外，本，特朗普曾对一名记者说，他列出了三名可能在未来领导伊朗的人选，但随后他又给另一位记者打电话，说：‘开个玩笑。’
And then on top of that, Ben, Trump told one reporter that he had a list of three people who might run Iran going forward, and then later he called another reporter and said, just kidding.
他们都死了。
They're all dead.
所以，我不知道。
So, like, I don't know.
我对目前掌权的团队没什么信心。
I don't have a ton of faith in, in the team running the show at the moment.
是的。
No.
我没有，汤米。
I don't, Tommy.
而且实际上，你知道，伊朗核协议从未显得如此有希望，这或许正是特朗普拼命诋毁它的原因。
And and, actually, you know, the Iran nuclear deal has never looked better, which may be why Trump is trashing it.
我认为大多数美国人，几乎是所有美国人，都宁愿我们现在处于伊核协议的第十年，而不是陷入这种混乱的对伊战争，这场战争让我们损失了数百亿美元。
I think most Americans, almost all Americans, would rather that we'd be in, you know, year ten of the JCPOA than we'd be in this kind of incoherent war with Iran that is costing us tens of billions of dollars.
它已经导致美国军人丧生。
It's already killed American service members.
它正在严重破坏全球经济。
It's, like, wreaking havoc on the global economy.
关于这一点，本，我再简单补充一点。
And just one quick point on that, Ben.
人们会说，哦，这个协议现在早就该过期了。
Like, people will be like, well, the the deal would have sunsetted by now.
当初的目标本是重新谈判，如果特朗普想的话，他本可以通过出色的谈判达成一个更严格的协议。
The the goal would have been to renegotiate it, and Trump could have gotten it a tougher deal if he'd wanted and if he did a good job in the negotiations.
是的。
Yeah.
而且整个协议本来不会到期。
And the whole deal wouldn't have sunsetted.
最严格的条款可能会到期，但你知道，是的。
So the the strictest provisions would have sunsetted, but, you know, yeah.
而且你瞧，坦白说，特朗普两天前就可以重新谈判了。
And you re I mean, frankly, Trump could have negotiated it two days ago.
我的意思是，是的。
I mean, it Yeah.
只是值得说一下。
It is worth just saying.
他们关于现在必须采取行动的说法完全是胡说八道。
They are completely full of shit about the need to do this now.
核计划当时并没有迫在眉睫的威胁。
Was no imminent threat from the nuclear program.
弹道导弹项目也没有任何不同于伊朗多年来一直拥有弹道导弹的明显威胁。
There was no distinct threat from the ballistic missile program that was any different than the, you know, how many however many years Iran has had ballistic missiles.
你知道，二十年了。
You know, twenty years.
这件事现在发生，是因为内塔尼亚胡希望现在就发生。
This happened now because Bibi Netanyahu wanted it to happen now.
我的意思是，根本没有其他解释。
I mean, there's no really other explanation.
是以色列人先去找特朗普，说现在就是时机。
It was it was the Israelis who started going to Trump being like, now's the time.
他们很虚弱。
They're weak.
然后林赛·格雷厄姆去对特朗普说，你可以成为那个除掉最高领袖的人，名垂青史，比里根还厉害，诸如此类的话。
And then in Lindsey Graham going to Trump and saying, you can be the man that took out the supreme leader and be historic and Reagan on steroids and all this.
时机的把握实际上是受以色列对特朗普自尊心的利用所决定的。
Like, the timing was determined by kind of Israeli interest in Trump's ego.
这就是这里时机凑巧的原因。
Like, that that's the convergence of timing here.
顺便说一下，ADL的乔纳森·格林布拉特曾因为我在这次伊朗战争期间说出这些话而称我为反犹主义者，我敢肯定他也会再次这样对待我们两人。
And by the way, Jonathan Greenblatt from the ADL called me an anti Semite for saying as much during the last Iran war, and I'm sure it will do so again to the both of us.
但再说一遍，这完全是被广泛报道的事实。
But, again, like, it's it's fully reported.
内塔尼亚胡说，今天《纽约时报》和其他地方都有大量相关报道。
Netanyahu is like, there's tons of reporting on this in The Times today and other places.
内塔尼亚胡简直是在炫耀，声称自己成功让特朗普为自己打仗。
Netanyahu is, like, taking credit and bragging about getting Trump to fight for him.
就像
Like
这简直是对我们智商的侮辱
This is such an insult to our intelligence
我知道。
I know.
全世界的乔纳森·格林布拉特们因为内塔尼亚胡昨天发布了一段视频，他在视频中说，他想做这件事已经四十年了，现在终于让一位美国总统帮他实现了。
The Jonathan Greenblatt's of the world because BB Netanyahu put out a video, like, yesterday in which he said that he's wanted to do this for forty years, and he finally got a US president to do it.
他说的。
He said it.
不是我们。
Not us.
这就像
It's like
不是我们。
Not us.
是的。
Yeah.
你会叫本雅明·内塔尼亚胡内塔尼亚胡内塔尼亚胡吗？
Are you gonna call Bibi Netanyahu Netanyahu Netanyahu?
我想是吧。
I guess so.
这简直太荒谬了。
The the like, this is totally absurd.
双重忠诚？
Dual loyalty?
今天我们学的就是这个？
Is that what we're learning today?
说以色列希望发生这件事。
To say that Israel wanted this to happen.
这太疯狂了。
It's crazy.
他们一直说，之前说他们希望发生，现在又说出来了。
Keeps saying that before they said they want it to happen, now they're saying it.
是的。
Yeah.
好了，休息休息。
Anyway, break break.
还有其他让我印象深刻的事情，就是伊朗内部对下一步该做什么的混乱说法。
The other things I you know, that I take away, the incoherence about what comes next inside of Iran.
你知道，他正在联系记者。
You know, he's calling reporters.
我的意思是，《纽约时报》的这次采访本身就是一段历程。
I mean, The Times one is a journey.
他和《纽约时报》进行了六分钟的对话，这本身就很不寻常，因为一方面，他说伊朗人民可以站起来，实现政权更迭。
He had a six minute conversation with The New York Times that in and of itself is a journey because on the one hand, he's saying the Iranian people can rise up and, you know, it can be this regime change.
另一方面，他又说我们可以采用委内瑞拉模式，直接和政权内部的人打交道。
On the other hand, he's saying, we can do the Venezuela model and just deal with somebody in the regime.
没错。
Right.
这人根本不知道自己的计划是什么。
This is a guy who has no idea what his own plan is.
因为首先，委内瑞拉模式在伊朗根本行不通。
Because first of all, the Venezuela model is impossible inside of Iran.
伊朗是一个意识形态更强、武装更严密的政权，它更可能分崩离析，而不是出现一个像委内瑞拉副总统德尔·罗德里格斯那样站出来的人——在伊朗体制里，谁要是敢站出来当这种人，恐怕活不了多久。
Like, this is a much more ideological heavily armed regime and it's far more likely to fracture than that there's one if there's one individual who raises their hand to be the Del C Rodriguez, you know, that's the Venezuelan vice president who took over, the person who raises their hand in the Iranian system to be that person probably doesn't have a very long life expectancy inside of Iran.
是的。
Yeah.
他们会遭到大约15万名伊斯兰革命卫队成员和上百万甚至两百万巴斯基民兵的火力打击。
They'll get shot up by, you know, a 150,000 members of the IRGC and then a million or two Basij militia members on the outside.
所以没错。
So yeah.
当你综合考虑他们实施的轰炸规模、造成的破坏以及缺乏明确计划时，似乎最有可能出现的是某种政权崩溃，或者一个被逼入绝境、充满愤怒的伊斯兰革命卫队型政权。
So when you take the totality of the the the the scale of bombing that they're doing and the the the destruction that's being wrought and the absence of a plan, it just feels like like some regime implosion or some, you know, kind of cornered angry, IRGC type regime is most likely to emerge.
我们走着瞧吧。
We'll see.
汤米，我想说的是，每当特朗普开口时，你都可以这么说。
The only other thing I wanna say about Trump, Tommy, is that you can say this anytime he opens his mouth.
但每一位其他发动战争的美国总统，你都能感受到他们肩上的沉重压力。
But every other US president who's launched a war, you can kinda feel the gravity on their shoulders.
是的。
Yeah.
你知道吧？
You know?
这人根本不在乎到这种地步。
The degree to which this guy doesn't give a shit.
我的意思是，现在他正在杀死可能成千上万的伊朗人。
I mean, right now, he is killing probably thousands of Iranians.
我的意思是，目前有一些初步估计称死亡人数达数百人，但你不可能轰炸数百个目标却没造成数千人死亡，当然还包括平民。
I mean, there's some preliminary estimates in the high hundreds, but, I mean, you can't hit hundreds and hundreds of targets and and not kill thousands of people, including, by the way, civilians.
而且我们已经看到，据报道，那所女子学校里有超过一百名儿童丧生。
And we've already seen, you know, reportedly over a 100 kids killed at that girl's school.
这似乎完全不会让他感到不安。
That doesn't seem to bother him in the slightest.
而且，你知道，美国人也在死亡。
And, you know, Americans are dying.
已经有四名美国人丧生了。
Already have had four Americans dying.
该地区每个美军基地的美国人都知道，他们正遭到无人机和弹道导弹的瞄准，而他却在开玩笑说窗帘的事。
Every American on a base in that region knows that they're being targeted by drones and ballistic missiles, and he's joking about curtains.
你知道吗？
You know?
我的意思是，我们不能允许这种行为不被谴责，因为它确实令人愤慨。
I mean, we cannot allow that to be not reprehensible because it is.
是的。
Yeah.
他还在把打击行动指向巴拉克·侯赛因·奥巴马。
And he's, you know, dropping the hits to Barack Hussein Obama.
好吧。
Okay.
我们明白了。
We get it.
你知道吗？
You know?
他有一个穆斯林的中间名。
He has a Muslim middle name.
我的意思是，别开玩笑了，
I mean, give give us a break,
老兄。
man.
这全是政治。
It's all politics.
而且关于你提到的以色列问题，事实上也有大量报道称，以色列人担心特朗普可能会比他们希望的更早结束这一切。
And and on your Israel point, I mean, there is all this reporting also that the Israelis are worried Trump might wrap things up sooner than they want to.
所以这不仅仅是内塔尼亚胡推动他发动战争。
So it's just like, it's not just that Netanyahu pushed him to start the war.
而是他在推动他继续这场战争。
It's that he's pushing him to continue it.
《拯救世界》由BetterHelp赞助播出。
Save the World is brought to you by BetterHelp.
国际妇女节不仅是庆祝进步的时刻，也是提醒我们关注那些推动这些进步的女性。
International Women's Day is about celebrating progress, but also a reminder to check-in on the women behind that progress.
女性常常承担着太多，却牺牲了自己的内心平静。
Women carry so much often at the expense of their own peace.
这个三月，让我们把焦点重新放回你自己身上。
This March, let's shift the focus back to you.
心理咨询为你提供了应得的空间，让你恢复精力、反思与重启。
Therapy offers the space you deserve to recharge, reflect, reset.
BetterHelp 的优质咨询师都遵循严格的职业准则，并在美国拥有完整执业资格。
BetterHelp's quality therapists work according to a strict code of conduct and are fully licensed in The US.
BetterHelp 会为你完成初步的匹配工作，让你专注于自己的治疗目标。
BetterHelp does the initial matching work for you so you can focus on your therapy goals.
一份简短的问卷有助于识别你的需求和偏好，而他们凭借在行业领先的匹配成功率（平均经验超过十二年），通常一次就能准确匹配。
A short questionnaire helps identify your needs and preferences, and their twelve or more years of experience in industry leading match fulfillment rate means they typically get it right the first time.
如果你对匹配的咨询师不满意，可以随时根据他们的个性化推荐更换其他咨询师。
If you aren't happy with your match, switch to a different therapist at any time from their tailored recommendations.
BetterHelp拥有超过30,000名治疗师，是全球最大的在线治疗平台，已为全球超过600万人提供服务。
With over 30,000 therapists, BetterHelp is the world's largest online therapy platform, having served over 6,000,000 people globally.
根据超过170万条客户评价，其实时咨询的平均评分为5分中的4.9分。
And it works with an average of 4.9 out of five for a live session based on over 1,700,000 client reviews.
伙计们，现在是2026年了。
Guys, it's twenty twenty six.
你想要找个人聊聊。
You want to talk to somebody.
外面发生的事情太多了。
There's a lot going on out there.
去找治疗师谈谈吧。
Talk to a therapist.
这会对你有很大帮助。
It'll help you a lot.
这会让你成为一个更好的人。
It'll make you a better person.
展开剩余字幕（还有 316 条）
它会让生活变得更好。
It'll make life better.
你会疑惑，我为什么没早点这么做？
You will wonder, why didn't I do this earlier?
你的情绪健康很重要。
Your emotional well-being matters.
在治疗中找到支持，让自己感觉更轻松。
Find support and feel lighter in therapy.
立即注册，在 betterhelp.com/crookedworld 享受10%折扣。
Sign up and get 10% off at betterhelp.com/crookedworld.
这是 betterhelp,help,.com/crookedworld。
That's betterhelp,help,.com/crookedworld.
《Posit the World》由SimpliSafe倾情呈现。
Posit the World is brought to you by SimpliSafe.
如果你和我一样，对每天手机上成堆的通知已经麻木了。
If you're like me, you're desensitized to the dozens of notifications on your phone each day.
但如果最新提示来自你的安防摄像头，忽视它可能带来灾难性后果。
But if the latest ping is from your security camera, ignoring it could spell disaster.
想象一下这种情况。
Picture this.
有人正在闯入，而你正在公司做一场重要的演讲。
Someone is breaking in, but you're giving a huge presentation at work.
你正在看电影。
You're at the movies.
你正在三万英尺高空的航班上。
You're on a flight at 30,000 feet.
几个小时后你才能看到录像，但那时已经太迟了。
You'll see the footage in a couple hours, but by then, it is too late.
这就是为什么你需要SimpliSafe。
That's why you need SimpliSafe.
SimpliSafe是一个可定制的全屋安防系统，全天候由可靠的监控人员支持，即使你无法行动，他们也会立即采取行动。
SimpliSafe is a customizable whole home security system backed twenty four seven by monitoring agents you can rely on to act even when you can't.
我安装了SimpliSafe。
I set up a SimpliSafe.
安装起来非常简单。
Incredibly easy to do.
你可以在网站上自定义它。
You can customize it on the website.
有上百万种组合，几分钟内就能安装好，然后那个应用程序，使用起来极其简单且可靠。
Comes in a million, install it in a matter of minutes, and then the app, incredibly easy to use and reliable.
客户支持非常好，非常可靠，所以我推荐它。
The customer support was great and really reliable, so I recommend it.
传统安防系统只有在有人已经闯入后才会行动，但那时已经太晚了。
Traditional security systems only act after someone has already broken in and that is too late.
SimpliSafe的ActiveGuard户外防护功能可以在入侵发生前就加以阻止，而其他安防公司却只会把你困在里面。
SimpliSafe's ActiveGuard Outdoor Protection can help prevent break ins before they happen, while other security companies lock you in.
SimpliSafe没有任何长期合同。
SimpliSafe comes with no long term contract.
他们每天通过保障您的安全与满意来赢得您的信任。
They earn your trust every day by keeping you safe and satisfied.
他们对自己提供的防护如此有信心，甚至提供防盗保障作为承诺。
They are so confident in the protection they provide, they even back it in with an anti theft guarantee.
我并不是唯一一个这样认为的人。
I'm not the only one.
SimpliSafe 为超过四百万人提供保护。
SimpliSafe protects over 4,000,000 people.
他们在家庭安防领域拥有二十年的经验。
They have twenty years of experience in home security.
他们刚刚被《美国新闻与世界报道》评为2026年最佳家庭安防系统。
They were just named best home security system of 2026 by US News and World Report.
他们被认定为家庭安防领域客户服务最佳，拥有行业领先的客户满意度数据作为证明。
They have been named the best customer service in home security with industry leading customer satisfaction scores to prove it.
现在，我的听众可以通过 simplisafe.com/crookedworld 以50美元优惠价购买全新的SimpliSafe系统。
Right now, my listeners can get 50 off their new SimpliSafe system at simplisafe.com/crookedworld.
这就是 simplisafe.com/crookedworld。
That's simplisafe.com/crookedworld.
没有比SimpliSafe更安全的选择了。
There's no safe like SimpliSafe.
本集由美国计划生育联合会赞助。
This episode is presented by Planned Parenthood Federation of America.
无论你住在哪里，收入多少，你都值得在需要时获得所需的医疗服务。
No matter where you live or how much money you make, you deserve to get the health care you need when you need it.
全国每四个人中就有一人曾前往计划生育中心接受服务。
One in four people across the country have come to a Planned Parenthood health center for care.
但为了政治目的，阻止患者使用医疗补助保险在计划生育中心获得必要医疗服务，特朗普政府及其在国会的支持者通过了一项法律，切断对计划生育的资助。
But in a politically motivated attempt to block patients from using their Medicaid insurance to get essential care at Planned Parenthood, the Trump administration and its backers in Congress passed a law to defund Planned Parenthood.
多达200家计划生育中心可能关闭。
As many as 200 Planned Parenthood health centers could close.
这意味着癌症将无法被及时发现，性传播感染将得不到治疗，患者也无法获得所需的避孕或堕胎服务，从而影响他们规划家庭和未来的能力。
That means cancers will go undetected, STIs will go untreated, and patients won't get the birth control or abortion care they need to plan their families and their futures.
但计划生育联合会并未退缩。
But Planned Parenthood is not backing down.
他们仍在为患者提供服务，提供必要的医疗，并确保每个人都能获得挽救生命、改变生活的服务。
They're still showing up for patients, providing essential care, and making sure that everyone can get the lifesaving, life changing services they need.
与你我这样的普通人一道，计划生育联合会每天都在为建设我们应得的未来而奋斗——在这个未来中，无论你是谁、住在何处，都能获得所需的医疗。
Alongside people like you and me, Planned Parenthood fights every day to build the future we deserve, one where everyone can get the care they need no matter who they are or where they live.
计划生育联合会是一个极其重要的组织，它在许多人们 otherwise 无法获得医疗的地方，为无数人提供医疗服务。
Planned Parenthood is an unbelievably important organization that is providing health care to countless people in places where they otherwise just would not be able to get it.
对计划生育联合会实施这种政治化的资金切断，意味着人们将会死亡。
These politicized tax on Planned Parenthood means people are going to die.
癌症将无法被及时发现。
Cancers will go undetected.
女性将无法获得她们所需的医疗。
Women will not be able to get the care they need.
这简直令人愤慨。
It is an outrage.
所以如果你能支持计划生育联合会，请立即捐款支持：plannedparenthood.org/defend。
So if you can support Planned Parenthood, please do Donate now to support Planned Parenthood at plannedparenthood.org/defend.
为了进一步强调这一点，这里是我们今天早上国防部长佩特·赫格塞斯新闻发布会的一段视频。
Just to kind of continue to nail this point, here's a clip of secretary of defense Pete Hegsef from the press conference he did this morning.
这场新闻发布会还包括参联会主席凯恩将军，他显然表现得更加专业，更符合人们预期的规范举止。
That press conference also included, general Kane, the chairman of the joint chiefs, who frankly seems to conduct himself in a far more professional and kind of, like, by the book way that you'd expect.
所以我们不会播放任何那段内容。
So we're not including any of that.
显然，他也参与了这项荒谬疯狂的政策。
Obviously, he's part of this idiotic crazy policy.
有报道称他对这一政策持批评态度，但今天我们只播放赫格塞斯的发言。
There are reports that he was more critical about it, but we're just gonna play hegzeth for you this morning.
我们来看一下。
So let's watch.
伊朗正在研制强大的导弹和无人机，以构建其核勒索野心的常规防御屏障。
Iran was building powerful missiles and drones to create a conventional shield for their nuclear blackmail ambitions.
让我再说一遍。
Let me say that again.
为他们核讹诈野心打造的常规屏障。
A conventional shield for their nuclear blackmail ambitions.
我们的基地、我们的人员、我们的盟友，全都在他们的瞄准范围内。
Our bases, our people, our allies, all in their crosshairs.
当伊朗试图通过欺骗手段获得核武器时，他们用一把常规武器对准了我们的头。
Iran had a conventional gun to our head as they tried to lie their way to a nuclear bomb.
在奥巴马和他的糟糕协议下，这几乎得逞了，但在现任总统领导下没有成功。
It almost worked under Obama and his terrible deal, but not under this president.
对那些不断叫嚣着无限战争的媒体和政治左派，停下吧。
To the media outlets and political left screaming endless wars, stop.
这可不是伊拉克。
This is not Iraq.
这也不是无休无止的。
This is not endless.
这次行动是一次
This operation is a
明确的、
clear,
毁灭性的、决定性的任务。
devastating, decisive mission.
摧毁导弹威胁。
Destroy the missile threat.
摧毁海军。
Destroy the navy.
没有核武器。
No nukes.
没有愚蠢的交战规则。
No stupid rules of engagement.
没有国家建设的泥潭。
No nation building quagmire.
没有民主建设的演练。
No democracy building exercise.
没有政治正确的战争。
No politically correct wars.
我们打仗是为了胜利，不会浪费时间和生命。
We fight to win, and we don't waste time or lives.
正如总统所警告的，如此规模的行动必然会有伤亡。
As the President warned, an effort of this scope will include casualties.
战争就是地狱，永远都是。
War is hell and always will be.
至于美国。
As it pertains to The U.
。
S.
关于伤亡，那次事件是你们有防空系统，导弹来袭，你们击落了大部分。
Casualties, that particular incident was you have air defenses and the lots coming in and you hit most of it.
我们确实如此。
And we absolutely do.
我们拥有出色的防空系统。
We have incredible air defenders.
偶尔，可能会有一个漏网之鱼，不幸的是，我们称之为‘逃逸弹’，它成功穿透了防线。
Every once in while, you might have one, unfortunately, we call it a squirter that that makes its way through.
而在这种特定情况下，它恰好击中了一个战术作战中心。
And in that particular case, it happened to hit a tactical operations center.
所以，我的意思是，你刚刚报道说轰炸了一所满是小女孩的学校，却还说什么‘没有愚蠢的交战规则’，这简直令人作呕。
So, I mean, look, saying no stupid rules of engagement when you just reportedly bombed a school full of little girls is, like, fucking disgusting.
不过，再说一遍，他在撒谎。
Again, though, like, he's lying.
根本不存在什么针对伊朗核计划的常规防护措施。
There is no such thing as a conventional shield for Iran's nuclear program.
等等，汤米，你说了两遍。
But wait, Tommy, you said it twice.
是的
Yeah.
他们用枪指着我们的头。
They had a gun to our head.
第二次才是真的。
The second time really.
是的
Yeah.
对
Yeah.
一把实实在在的枪指着我们的头。
A conventional gun to our head.
再说一遍，美国可以摧毁任何这种所谓的常规屏障。
Again, The US could annihilate, like, whatever this conventional shield would be.
其次，他和特朗普试图用那种无血、宿命论的方式谈论美国的伤亡，想方设法淡化这件事。
Second, like, I the the bloodless, like, fatalistic ways that he and Trump are trying to talk about American casualties to kind of, I don't know, spin it away.
这场战争本不必发生。
It's like this this war did not need to happen.
我认为这才是关键点。
I think that is the important point.
这根本不是什么小打小闹。
This wasn't a a squirter.
我甚至不知道那是什么意思。
I don't even know what that means.
这是一架伊朗无人机，它杀死了美国军人，因为你们这些蠢货发动了一场我们根本没必要开启的选战。
This is an Iranian drone that killed American service members because you assholes launched a war of choice that we didn't need to start.
最后，本，就像你之前说的，赫萨特无权决定战争何时结束。
And then finally, Ben, like, again, like you said earlier, like, Hexath does not get to decide when the war ends.
伊朗人完全可以把这场战争打上一代人，即使只是零星交火，但人还是会死。
Like, the Iranians could decide to fight this for a generation, and it would just might be sporadic, but people are gonna die.
那是，是的。
That's yeah.
我的意思是，很高兴你这么说，因为他们可以说这不是另一场无尽的战争或永久战争，因为我们终将停止轰炸，但这并不意味着战争就在那时结束。
I mean, I'm glad you said that because they can say this is not another endless war or another forever war because we're gonna stop bombing at some point, but that doesn't mean that the war ends at that point.
伊朗的人们可能仍在互相残杀、丧生。
The people in Iran could kill still be killing each other and dying.
他们可能仍在向该地区的其他人发射武器。
They could still be firing things at people in the region.
我的意思是，这十二天的战争根本就不是一场持续十二天的战争。
Like like, just I mean, the twelve day war was not a twelve day war.
它仍在继续。
It's still going on.
你明白吗？
You know?
我们不会把第二次世界大战描述成一百场不同的战争，因为有时候我们并没有参与其中——这种说法太蠢了，他们就是想让美国民众，尤其是他们的MAGA支持者，觉得他们并没有打开潘多拉的盒子，但他们确实打开了。
Like, we don't describe World War two as as a series of 100 different wars because at times we weren't in you know, this is a stupid fucking way that they're trying to to make the American people and their MAGA base in particular feel like they didn't just open Pandora's box because they did.
而且你看，皮特·赫克说过，你希望国防部长能保持沉稳和令人安心。
And look, Pete Heck said this you you want the secretary of defense to be kind of sober and reassuring.
这简直完全不合格。
That is anything but Inqualified.
一个家伙，你知道的，看起来——也许他没喝酒，但他肯定得吃点阿得拉尔，对着镜子反复背诵那些老套的强硬言论，好让自己看起来够强硬之类的。
A guy who's you know, looks like I mean, maybe he's not drinking, but, like, he had to fucking take some Adderall and, like, repeat, you know, the conventional shield line to himself in the mirror before going out, you know, so he could look tough or something.
他根本不懂。
Like, he doesn't know.
他没资格管理这件事。
He's not qualified to be managing this.
他根本不懂。
He doesn't know.
你知道吗？
You know?
你知道吗？
You know?
他满嘴都是空话，根本没有交战规则之类的。
It's all buzzwords with him and and no rules of engagement and this and that.
计划到底是什么？
What what is the plan?
我的意思是，我还在想另一件事，汤米，我们可以在播客里再多聊聊这个。
I mean, he there's another thing I've been thinking about, Tommy, and we can talk about it on the podcast a little more.
但如果你是依赖美国提供生存安全保障的海湾盟友，比如沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔、阿联酋，就拿这三个国家来说，你很可能正在制定购买核武器的计划。
But if you're the Gulf allies, right, who rely on The United States for your existential security, if you're Saudi Arabia, Qatar, The UAE, let's just take those three, you're probably, like, making up plans to buy a nuclear weapon.
你知道吧？
You know?
因为你会想，我不能依赖这些国家，很多国家都不可靠。
Because you you're like, I can't rely on the these as are a lot of countries.
我们很多对手可能也是这么想的。
A lot of our adversaries probably are too.
是的。
Yeah.
因为朝鲜拥有核武器和洲际弹道导弹，没人敢招惹他们。
Because North Korea's North Korea's got nukes and an ICBM, and no one's messing with them.
金正恩看起来，你知道的，一边抽烟一边东张西望，状态挺好的。
And Kim looks, you know, like he's ripping cigs and looking at stuff, and he's just fine.
对吧？
Right?
所以，我指的是，MAGA支持者根本不想打这场战争。
And and and so I I I the the lack of who wants because the MAGA audience doesn't even want this war.
那HECSA到底在对谁说话？
Like, who is HECSA talking to?
对吧？
Right?
我的意思是，这并不能让盟友安心。
I mean, that's not reassuring allies.
这并不能让美国人安心。
That's not reassuring Americans.
这并不能震慑伊朗人。
That's not intimidating Iranians.
他就像在为福克斯新闻、林德尔电视台以及简报室里的其他人表演一样。
Like, he's lit like, literally performing for Fox News and Lindell TV and whoever else is in that in that briefing room Yep.
却完全没有给出任何连贯或清晰的解释，你知道的？
Without giving any coherence or clarity about you know?
因为他曾说过，这次行动与民主无关。
Because what he said about the mission that it's not about democracy.
但我以为，几周来他们一直告诉我们，这是因为我们要援助和平抗议者，而且唐纳德·特朗普还呼吁伊朗人民起来反抗。
Well, I don't I I thought they've been telling us for weeks that this is because of peaceful protesters that we had to come to their aid and Donald Trump telling the Iranian people to rise up.
如果你是正在考虑反抗的伊朗人，然后听到HECSIS说，这根本不是关于民主的。
If you're one of the Iranian people that is thinking of rising up and then you hear HECSIS say, this is not about democracy.
这关乎杀戮，关乎摧毁他们的导弹和海军。
It's about killing it's about destroying their missiles and navy.
这会激励你起来反抗吗？
Does that incentivize you to rise up?
我的意思是，这完全说不通。
I mean, like, this makes no sense.
这完全毫无条理。
It is totally incoherent.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，对于伊朗人民来说，他们并不清楚特朗普是否真的在全力推动政权更迭，这让人感到混乱。
I mean, it's incoherent for the people in Iran who aren't clear whether Trump is fully pushing for regime change or not.
目标之间的区别对你们刚才提到的海湾国家来说也非常重要，因为对他们而言最糟糕的情况是：我们轰炸了一堆目标，但特朗普却半途而废，留下一个残余版本的政权，或者一个由下一代革命卫队领导的政府，这个政府同样憎恨你们的国家，同样充满敌意和恶劣。
That the the distinction in the goals is pretty important to the Gulf countries you just mentioned too because the worst case scenario for them is, you know, we bomb a bunch of stuff, but then Trump kinda just gives up and leaves some, you know, rump version of the regime or like a next up IRGC led government that hates, you know, their countries just as much and are just as caustic and terrible.
也许他们不再有能力支持代理人。
I mean, maybe they won't have the capacity to support proxies.
也许他们不再有能力做我们担心的那些事情，但我不确定。
Maybe they won't have the capacity to do things that we're worried about, but I don't know.
我可不敢打这个赌。
I wouldn't wanna bet on it.
而且，因为那正是最有可能发生的情况。
Well and and that because that's the most likely scenario.
这难道不正是目前最有可能发生的情况吗？我们基本上把他们困住几周，不断造成更多人死亡，但随后可能爆发内战，而伊斯兰革命卫队和围困者以骇人听闻的数字屠杀平民。
Doesn't that feel like the most likely scenario now that, like, essentially, we bond them for a few weeks, kill more and more people, but then there's maybe some civil conflict, but the IRGC and the besiege massacre people in horrible numbers.
然后出现一个疯狂的残余伊斯兰革命卫队政权。
And then there's this kind of crazy rump IRGC regime.
你可以说他们已经被削弱了，但那毕竟还是一个庞大的国家。
And and you can say that they've been defanged, but it's still a giant country.
他们会重建一些能力，而且可能变得更危险。
And they'll rebuild some capacity, and they might be more dangerous.
他们肯定会试图获得核武器。
They'll certainly try to get a nuclear weapon.
我的意思是，确实如此。
I mean Yeah.
这肯定比他们所承受的要少。
Like, that's gotta be less than they take.
所以，他们试图按照新闻周期来主导这场战争，这完全违背了历史规律。
So the the their desire to run this war by the news cycle is so ahistorical.
因为当你摧毁了一个拥有九千二百万人口且武装到牙齿的国家的政权时，不可能仅仅通过关闭新闻周期就让事态结束——而他们恰恰会这么做，无论是在四周还是五周后。
Because when you decapitate the regime of a country of 92,000,000 people that is heavily armed, it's not going to end when you try to turn the news cycle off, which is what they'll do in four or five weeks or whenever it is.
我简直难以置信，他们竟然会这么想，也就是说，委内瑞拉那套把戏一定让他们飘了。
And that it's just astonishing me how much they think I mean, that Venezuela thing must have gone to their head.
当然了。
Oh, definitely.
他们居然以为可以在伊朗如法炮制，但伊朗是个完全不同的国家，位于世界完全不同的地区，那里经历过更多战争、冲突和内乱。
That that that they thought that you could do the same thing in Iran, which is a fucking wildly different country and a wildly different part of the world where there's been a lot more war, conflict, and civil conflict.
而且这个国家的凝聚力强得多。
And it's a lot more coherent Yeah.
一个更团结的国家。
Cohesive of a country.
是的。
I yeah.
我认为几乎肯定存在这样一种情况：特朗普和以色列人会猛烈轰炸大量先进的军事基础设施，至少在短期内能降低对美国或以色列的威胁。
I I think that like, there's almost certainly a scenario where Trump will and the Israelis will bomb the shit out of a lot of, like, advanced military infrastructure that will in the near term at least reduce the threat to The US or Israel.
但这丝毫不会减少我们呼吁走上街头、奋起反抗的人们所面临的威胁，因为你不需要洲际弹道导弹来杀害一名抗议者。
But it will not in any way reduce the threat to the people that we are telling to take to the streets and rise up because you don't need an ICBM to kill a protester.
你只需要一把枪。
You just need a gun.
不。
No.
而且他们在伊朗无处不在。
And they are all over Iran.
本，说到这种混乱，民主党方面的反应真是五花八门。
Ben, speaking of kinda incoherence, so the Democratic party's response, been a little all over the place.
有些民主党人表现得很好，如果你想的话我们可以聊聊他们。
Some Democrats have been great, and we can talk about them if you want.
但有些民主党人完全支持这场战争，这在我看来简直疯狂，尤其是考虑到伊拉克、利比亚最近的历史，或者更广泛地说，你居然会信任唐纳德·特朗普。
Some Democrats have fully endorsed the war, which is just absolutely insane to me given the recent history in Iraq, in Libya, for example, or more generally that you would trust Donald Trump Yeah.
还有佩特·海格塞斯来承担这样的任务。
And Pete Hegzeth with a task like this.
如果你在支持这个过程，我认为你疯了，但我们会看到结果的。
I I think you've lost your mind if you are, you know, cosigning this process, but we'll find out.
然后，就像我们上周末讨论的那样，还有一群民主党人把谴责的重点放在了程序上，比如需要国会投票授权战争，或者需要向美国人民明确说明战争目标。
And then you have a bunch of Democrats like we discussed over the weekend that have focused their condemnation on the process, the need to get a vote from Congress to authorize a war, or the need to clearly spell out the goals to the to the American people.
当然，我同意这两种批评意见，但事已至此，我们已经陷入困境了。
And, obviously, I I agree with both of those criticisms, but the ship has kinda sailed there, so, you know, we're in a tough spot.
我只想恳请正在听的民主党人，强烈基于实质理由谴责这场战争。
The one thing I would just like I I want to implore Democrats listening to loudly condemn the war on the merits.
因为这并不受欢迎。
Like, it is not popular.
这在民调中表现很差。
This does not poll well.
随着时间推移，它的民调支持率只会更差。
It will not poll well as time goes on.
而我接下来想强调的是，特朗普在关于威胁的问题上撒了谎。
And then the things I would just focus on, though, are Trump is lying about the threat.
对吧？
Right?
伊朗距离拥有核武器还差得远。
Iran is nowhere close to having a nuclear weapon.
伊朗距离拥有能够打击美国的导弹还差得远。
Iran was nowhere close to having a missile that could hit The United States.
他在撒谎。
He lied.
他正在撒谎。
He is lying.
为此狠狠抨击他。
Hammer them for it.
谈谈这场战争的成本。
This talk talk about the cost.
已经有四名军人阵亡，更多人重伤。
Four service members are dead already, more gravely wounded.
这场冲突已经耗费了数百亿美元。
The conflict has already cost tens of billions of dollars.
特朗普曾反对政权更迭战争。
Trump ran against regime change wars.
没人希望我们这样花钱。
No one wants us spending money this way.
无论是MAGA右翼、左翼，都没有人希望这样。
Not the MAGA right, not the the left, nobody.
然后我会强调全球各地的混乱，因为这场战争现在并不仅仅发生在伊朗。
And then I I, like, I would highlight the chaos all over the world because this war is not just happening in Iran right now.
它正在以色列和黎巴嫩恐吓民众。
It is it is terrorizing populations in Israel and Lebanon.
它正在夺走生命，并蔓延到海湾地区的所有城市。
It is killing people and spilling it to all these cities in The Gulf.
它正在使全球的美国外交官和游客面临更不安全的处境。
It is making American diplomats and tourists less safe all over the world.
今天有一些报道，我不确定是否已确认，称得克萨斯州的这名恐怖枪手可能受到伊朗局势的驱动。
There were some reports today, I don't know if they're confirmed then, that this terrorist gunman in Texas might have been motivated by what's happening in Iran.
在美国，事情也可能发生。
Things could happen in The US.
这让我们所有人都更不安全了，我不明白为什么大家还犹豫不决，为什么不直接就战争本身的是非曲直进行讨论呢？
Like, it is making us all less safe, and I I don't get the hesitation to just take on the war on the merits, on the substance, and focus on that.
那你希望民主党做什么呢？
But what what are you looking for from Democrats?
我们应该说，参议院本周可能会就战争权力问题进行投票。
And we should say, you know, the the senate might have a war powers vote this week.
众议院要到周四才开会，才能就此事进行任何审议或投票。
The house won't be in session until Thursday to have any kind of deliberation or vote on this.
我认为一些美国参议员担心，战争权力投票可能会被轻易处理，比如特朗普可能很快就能化解关于国会授权的担忧。
I think there's some US senators who are concerned that a war powers vote actually might just kind of, like, be taken care of by like, Trump might be able to push away the kind of concerns over congressional authorization too quickly.
而我们真正需要的是就授权使用军事力量（AUMF）对伊朗进行辩论和投票，这实际上更难通过，因为它需要60票的门槛，而不是50票。
And what we really need is a vote in the debate about an AUMF, an authorization for the use of military force in Iran, which would actually be harder to get because it would take a 60 vote threshold versus 50 votes.
但这有点太细枝末节了。
But that's a bit in the weeds.
但你希望民主党做什么？
But what are you looking for from Democrats?
要有骨气和活力，是的。
A spine and a pulse Yeah.
这正是我所期待的两点。
Would be the two things I'm looking for.
而且，我想再明确一下。
And and, again, I wanna be clear.
国会里有很多民主党人，可能大多数民主党人都表现得很好。
There are a lot of Democrats, probably the majority of Democrats in Congress who have been very good.
比如克里斯·墨菲、鲁本·加列戈，还有众议院的进步派核心小组，还有很多其他人。
And, you know, again, Chris Murphy, Ruben Gallego, like the progressive caucus in the house, like many people.
对吧？
Right?
但你知道，有些人表面上支持，而有些人则过于模棱两可，让人搞不清他们的立场。
But, you know, there's there's some people that are outwardly supportive, and then there's some some people who are kind of so anodyne as to you don't know where they stand.
听好了。
Look.
关键是，我们才刚刚进入这场战争几天。
The point is that we are, you know, a few days into this war.
这明显是一团糟。
It's clearly a shit show.
特朗普一开始去度假了。
Trump started on vacation.
他之所以没有因为这种混乱、疯狂以及背离公众意见的行为付出更大代价，原因之一就是没有一个团结一致、积极发声、立场清晰的反对党来追究他的责任。
The the reason one of the reasons that he doesn't pay a bigger price for this kind of incoherence and insanity and doing something that is so against public opinion is that there's not a unified opposition party that is being vocal and aggressive and coherent in holding him accountable.
因此，他得以逃避本应面对的问责。
And so it it it lets him escape some of the accountability that he should be facing for what's happening.
这里有几个这样的民主党人。
There there's a couple kind of Democrats here.
那些支持的人，我在上一期节目中说过，但拿了很多APEC资金的人之间存在重叠的维恩图。
The the people that are supportive I said this on our last episode, but there's a overlapping Venn diagram between who takes a lot of APEC money.
你知道的？
You know?
但如果你要表示支持，即使你讨厌伊朗政权，像汤米你说的那样，信任唐纳德·特朗普和皮特，这简直太过分了。
But if you're gonna be supportive, even if you hate the Iranian regime, to your point, Tommy, like, the the Donald Trump and Pete that you would trust them with anything is is beyond the pale.
但还有一种民主的回应方式，我认为我们需要点明，那就是那些感到不安的人。
But there's another kind of democratic response that I think we need to name, which is people who are, like, nervous.
要是这事顺利了怎么办？
Like, what if this goes okay?
是的。
Yes.
我不想成为那个说‘是’的人。
Like, I don't wanna go I don't wanna be Yes.
天啊，他杀了最高领袖。
Too, oh, he killed the supreme leader.
我不想看起来，你知道的，就是那样。
I don't wanna look, you know, like, look.
就像是
It's like
像是海湾战争一结束就留下的后遗症，
a Gulf War one hangover from, like,
1990年的后遗症。
1990 hangover.
这太疯狂了。
It's crazy.
关键是，
And here's the thing.
我们本来就该反战。
We should just be anti war.
对。
Yeah.
就此为止。
Full stop.
是的。
Yes.
除非存在迫在眉睫的威胁，绝对迫使这个国家采取军事行动，否则民主党在道德、法律和伦理上都应优先考虑国内支出，而不是国外支出。
The pop like, unless there's an imminent threat that absolutely compels this nation to take military action, the Democratic Party should be morally, legally, ethically priority wise because we wanna spend money at home instead of abroad.
这是世界上最简单易懂的政治主张。
The easiest political message in the world to deliver.
这个观点根本不需要费力去传达。
That is not a hard message to deliver.
我们现在在波斯湾的军火开支，比被削减的《平价医疗法案》补贴还要多。
I should I we are spending more money on munitions in the Persian Gulf right now than on the ACA subsidies that were cut.
你看，你不需要像丹·菲弗尔那样的人，也能明白这一点。
Like, this is I you know, you don't need to be a, you know, Dan Pfeiffer to, like, decipher this this one.
对。
Yeah.
致敬，丹。
Shout out, Dan.
致敬，
Shout out,
致敬，Polarcos。
Shout out, Polarcos.
是的。
Yeah.
关键是，即使这是最好的情况——而我认为由于你提到的所有原因，这并不会发生——我仍然会反对。
The the point being is that, like, even if this is the best case scenario, which I don't think it's gonna be for all the reasons you said, I would still be against it.
因为从原则上来讲，而且为了与公众意见保持一致，尤其是我们民主党内部民众的意见，我们必须反对这一点。
Because as a matter of principle and frankly to be in line with public opinion, particularly the public opinion of our own people in the Democratic Party, like, we need to be against this.
所以我真心希望看到民主党能展现出更多的活力。
And and so I just really hope we start to see, like, more of a pulse from the Democrats.
而不仅仅是说我们想就这个问题进行投票——我对罗·康纳表示赞赏。
And and not just like we wanna have this vote on this, which I'm props to Ro Khanna.
这并不是针对他。
It's it's not against him.
但你的担忧是，一旦这一票失败了，你就想转向你的经济议题。
But the the concern that that you have one vote that fails and then you wanna, you know, pivot to your economic messaging.
你知道的。
You know?
你的经济议题就是这个。
Well, your economic messaging is this.
就是说，让我们别再打这些愚蠢的战争，把钱花在人们真正关心的事情上。
It's it's like, let let's not keep fighting dumb wars so we can spend money on the things that people actually care about.
我只是希望看到民主党人愿意展开这场辩论，而不是有时候因为有人提出这个问题就显得不高兴。
I just would like to see Democrats, like, want to have this debate and and not sometimes, like like, unhappy that someone's been asking the question about it.
是的。
Yeah.
积极拥抱这个议题。
Lean into this.
《华盛顿邮报》做了一次快速民意调查。
The wall the Washington Post did a flash poll.
52%的美国人反对这场战争，39%支持。
52% of Americans opposed the war, 39% support it.
但反对者的情绪要强烈得多。
But, like, the opponents are far more passionate.
就像说，
Like,
这已经是最高点了。
And that's the high watermark.
是的。
Yeah.
这就是峰值。
That's the watermark.
你知道的？
You know?
而且有40%的人强烈反对，绝大多数独立选民也反对这场战争。
And it's 40%, like, strongly opposed, and and an overwhelming majority of independents opposed this war.
所以，你在政治上是站得住脚的。
So, like, you are on sound political footing.
你在法律和道德上完全是站得住脚的。
You are on 100% sound legal and moral footing.
特朗普在撒谎。
Trump is lying.
他的团队全是该死的蠢货，这个政府就是这样。
He's a bunch of they're staffed by fucking idiots, this administration.
是的，没错。
Like, just Yeah.
得了吧。
Come on.
我们到底在这儿干什么？
What are we doing here?
是的。
Yeah.
关键在于，当最高领导人被杀的那一天，特朗普在这场战争中所做的任何其他事情都不可能提升公众对这场战争的支持率。
And that's the thing is that the the day that the the supreme leader is killed is there's not another thing that Trump's going to do in this war that is gonna drive up public opinion about this war.
你知道，我无法想象。
You know, I cannot imagine.
而且即使战争结束，正如你所指出的，我们该如何计算这场战争的代价、造成的破坏以及经济损失？
And and even if it ends, like, how much to your point, like, get the answers to how much this cost, and what's the damage, and what was the economic cost?
因为所有这些都已经发生或正在持续发生。
Because all this is already or things that have already happened and and that are ongoing.
另一个反对他的理由是，我今天在《纽约时报》上发表了一篇文章，如果大家想看看的话，但他还会再这么做。
And and another reason to be and I have a piece out in the New York Times if people wanna check this out today, but he's gonna do this again.
所以，强烈反对他的一个原因是，我不相信这会是最后一次，不。
So so one reason to really oppose him here is I don't you trust that this is the last No.
唐纳德·特朗普接下来会在哪里发动？
Where Donald Trump's gonna start?
林赛·格雷厄姆本周末再次在电视上激动得近乎高潮地谈论古巴将是下一个目标。
Lindsey Graham is again on air on TV over the weekend, like, near orgasm talking about how Cuba is next.
所以这又会再次发生。
So it's like, this is again, it's gonna happen again.
是的。
Yeah.
真糟心。
Sucks.
好吧。
Okay.
嗯，我
Well, I
我想今天我们就到这里。
think that's it for us for today.
我们周二再录一次，周三正常发布。
Again, we're gonna record again Tuesday for, Wednesday normal release.
谢谢大家观看本期节目。
Thank you guys for watching this.
抱歉这个世界正在发生这样的事。
Sorry this is happening in the world.
确实很糟糕，但我们只能面对。
Absolutely sucks, but here we are.
所以我们还是会继续报道，感谢观看和订阅。
So we're gonna cover it, and thanks for watching and subscribing.
《Pod Save World》是由Crooked Media制作的节目。
Pod Save World is a crooked media production.
我们的高级制片人是阿洛娜·明科夫斯基。
Our senior producer is Alona Minkowski.
我们的制片人是迈克尔·戈德史密斯。
Our producer is Michael Goldsmith.
我们的助理制片人是阿尼莎·班纳吉。
Our associate producer is Anisha Banerjee.
我们获得索尔·鲁宾提供的制作支持。
We get production support from Saul Rubin.
我们的执行制片人是我、汤米·维托和本·罗兹。
Our executive producers are me, Tommy Vitor, and Ben Rhodes.
本节目由乔丹·坎托负责录音、混音和剪辑。
The show is engineered, mixed, and edited by Jordan Cantor.
音频支持由凯尔·塞格林和夏洛特·兰迪斯提供。
Audio support by Kyle Seglin and Charlotte Landis.
感谢我们的数字团队：本·赫福特、米亚·凯尔曼、威廉·琼斯、大卫·托尔斯和瑞安·杨。
Thank you to our digital team, Ben Hefkote, Mia Kellman, William Jones, David Tolls, and Ryan Young.
马特·迪格罗特是我们制作主管。
Matt DeGroat is our head of production.
阿德里安·希尔是我们新闻与政治事务的高级副总裁。
Adrian Hill is our senior vice president of news and politics.
如果你想无广告收听《Pod Save the World》，并获取独家播客内容，请前往 crooked.com/friends 在 Supercast、Substack、YouTube 或 Apple Podcasts 订阅。
If you wanna listen to Pod Save the World ad free and get access to exclusive podcasts, go to crooked.com/friends to subscribe on Supercast, Substack, YouTube, or Apple Podcasts.
别忘了在 Instagram、TikTok 和 Twitter 上关注 Crooked Media，获取更多原创内容、主持人接管活动和其他社区活动。
Don't forget to follow us at Crooked Media on Instagram, TikTok, and Twitter for more original content, host takeovers, and other community events.
请在 YouTube 上订阅 Pod Save the World，以观看完整剧集、独家内容以及其他更多内容。
Please subscribe to Pod Save the World on YouTube for access to full episodes, bonus content, and much more.
如果你和我们一样爱表达观点，请留下评论。
And if you're opinionated like us, leave a review.
我们的制作团队由美国作家协会东部分会正式代表。
Our production staff is proudly unionized by the Writers Guild of America East.
关于 Bayt 播客
Bayt 提供中文+原文双语音频和字幕，帮助你打破语言障碍，轻松听懂全球优质播客。