无风险则无回报 | 卡罗尔·罗斯

一家本地汉堡店的收银员时薪可能是20美元，但汉堡连锁店的老板可能赚取数十万甚至数百万美元。这公平吗？绝对公平。为什么？因为风险与回报的概念。

A cashier at a local burger joint may make $20 an hour, but the owner of the burger shop chain may make hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars. Is that fair? Absolutely. Why? Because of the concepts of risk and reward.

风险与回报是理解世界的根本原则，从经济、商业、政府到我们个人生活中的选择皆是如此。这些选择都取决于我们如何权衡风险与回报。我们理解回报，但风险是什么？简单来说，它是事情结果比预期更糟的可能性，加上这种糟糕结果实际发生的几率。当你想到承担风险，可能会联想到跳伞这类活动。

Risk and reward are fundamental to navigating the world, from economics, business, and government to the choices we make in our own lives. Those choices all depend on how we assess risk and reward. We understand rewards, but what about risk? Simply put, it is the likelihood of something turning out worse than expected plus the chance of that something worse actually happening. Now when you think of taking risk, you might think of an activity like jumping out of an airplane.

你必须评估风险的量与范围。也许你的降落伞打不开。事实上，每四十万次跳伞中就有一次致命事故——与之相对的是潜在收益：翱翔天空的刺激感、事后的谈资等等。风险与回报的较量。

You must evaluate the amount and scope of risk involved. Maybe your parachute doesn't open. In fact, one out of every four hundred thousand making a jump are killed against the potential benefits. The rush of flying through the open air, the bragging rights afterwards, and so on. Risk versus reward.

假设你想投资一家研发了激动人心的新技术的公司股票。你冒着损失血汗钱的风险，期待股价翻倍或三倍。但没人知道这项新技术是否会流行。你可能轻易血本无归。风险与回报的较量。

Maybe you wanna invest in the stock of a company that has developed an exciting new technology. You risk your hard earned money hoping the stock doubles or triples. But no one knows whether this new technology will catch on. You could easily lose your entire investment. Risk versus reward.

假设你想创业。你愿意投入时间和金钱让事业运转，甚至可能抵押房子支付启动成本。这承担了巨大风险。但你热爱自己当老板的构想。

Say you wanna start your own business. You're willing to put your time and money into this venture to make it work. You may be even willing to mortgage your house to finance the start up costs. That's taking on a lot of risk. But you love the idea of being your own boss.

如果企业如你所愿取得成功，你可能赚大钱。风险与回报的较量。收获回报听起来很棒。那为什么不是人人都冒险？有时风险与收益不成正比。

And if the business succeeds like you hope, you might make a lot of money. Risk versus reward. Reaping rewards sounds great. So why doesn't everyone take on the risks to get them? Sometimes the risks don't justify the payoff.

有时人们害怕承担过多风险，或不知如何评估风险。这让他们不安。这不是批评，而是现实。例如多数人宁愿选择稳定薪水的安全感，也不愿承受发薪日的焦虑。

Other times, people are afraid of taking too many risks or don't know how to evaluate the risks. It makes them uneasy. It's not a criticism. It's just reality. Most people, for example, prefer the safety of getting a steady paycheck to the anxiety of making payroll.

有人天生爱冒险，更多人则不然——至少在生活的某些领域如此。每个人构造不同。但请记住：若你在汉堡店工作并疑惑为何薪资不高，别忘了店主正承担着风险。

Some people are risk takers. Many people aren't, at least in certain areas of their lives. Everyone is built differently. But keep this in mind. If you work for a hamburger shop and you wonder why you aren't getting paid more, remember that the business owner is taking the risk.

无论进店顾客是1人还是1000人，你的薪水照拿。但店主可能失去一切。正因承担这份风险，他才获得收获回报的机会。如果失败无需代价会怎样？如果收益被担保又会怎样？

You get a paycheck no matter if one customer or 1,000 customers come through the door. But the business owner risks losing everything. And for that risk, he gets the opportunity of reaping any rewards. Now what if we take away the cost of failure? What if the payoff is guaranteed?

如果冒险者自身无需承担后果，而由他人为其冒险行为买单——当这种情况真实发生时，秩序就会崩塌。欢迎来到名为“大政府”的哈哈镜世界。这里，风险回报公式完全失效。当国会议员、总统或其他政客举债、参战或立法时，风险与回报的制衡机制荡然无存。

What if those who take on the risk have nothing personally at stake and other people have to bear the cost of their risk taking? When that happens, and it does, things get out of whack. Welcome to that fun house mirror known as big government. Here, the risk reward formula totally breaks down. When a member of Congress, the president, or other politicians take on debt, engage in wars, or make other legislation, the checks and balances of risk and reward are not there.

政府可以挥霍你的税款，但这对他们有何损失？毫无损失，也无需真正承担责任。项目失败，政客无需承担后果；成本翻倍甚至三倍，也无需自掏腰包。这种情况在各级政府中普遍存在。

The government can spend your tax dollars wastefully, but what's the cost to them? There is none, and there's no real accountability either. If the program fails, the politician suffers no consequence. If the program doubles or triples in cost, it's not coming out of their pockets. This is true up and down all of government.

唯一的问责机制是他们可能在下届选举中落败。考虑到他们能代表我们承担的风险级别，这点下行风险微不足道。而这些政客卸任后，往往还能获得利润丰厚的游说董事会职位或其他肥差。他们坐享回报，而你我才真正承担代价。所以下次听到汉堡店员工抱怨企业家赚得太多时，不妨提醒他们风险与回报的关系。

The only accountability is that they might get voted out of office the next time. Not much of a downside risk given the level of risk they can take on our behalf. And these politicians often get lucrative lobbying board members speaking in other positions after office. They get the rewards, and you and I are the ones that bear the costs. So the next time a hamburger shop worker or other employee complains that the entrepreneur is making too much money, you can remind them about risk versus reward.

如果店铺倒闭，员工无非换个地方工作，但店主将失去所有投入的时间与资金。正是回报机制，才激励全球人们冒险——包括财务风险——去创造改善我们生活的产品、服务和企业。如果成功轻而易举，人人都会开汉堡店，但事实并非如此。那些甘冒风险，倾注时间、心血和资金的人，才有资格收获回报。

If the shop fails, sure, the employee might have to find a new shop to work at. But the owner loses all their time and money spent trying to make it successful. Rewards are what allow people all over the world to take risks, including financial risks, to create products, services, and businesses that make our lives better. If it were so easy to be successful, everyone would open their own hamburger shop, but it isn't. And so for those who take a risk and put their time, heart, soul, and money into their businesses, they get the opportunity to reap the reward.

风险与回报。这个等式唯有两者并存时才成立。消除风险，你会得到数万亿美元的美国债务；剥夺回报， entrepreneurship（创业精神）、新技术、社会进步乃至新汉堡店都将不复存在。我是Carol Roth，普拉格大学《你一无所知》的作者。

Risk versus reward. The formula only works if both are in play. Take away risk, and you're left with trillions in US debt. Take away reward, and you don't have entrepreneurship, new technology, progress, or a new hamburger joint. I'm Carol Roth, author of You Will Know Nothing for Prager University.

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