游戏理论 #11：升级法则

你让我为什幺道歉？

Tell me tell me to apologize for what?

这种情况持续了很长时间。

And this goes on for a long time.

明白吗？

Okay?

最后，霸凌者气得直接一拳打在了新来的孩子的脸上。

And then eventually, the bully gets so pissed off that he punches the new kid in the face.

明白吗？

Okay?

是他先动手的。

So he started it.

新来的那个孩子虽然受伤了，但还是决定回击一拳打在霸凌者的脸上。

The new kid, he's he's he's hurt, but he decides to punch the bully back in the face.

明白吗？

Okay?

霸凌者更强壮，所以他把霸凌者揍了一顿。

The bully's stronger, so he beats the bully up.

所以他把新来的学生揍了一顿。

So he beats up the new kid.

但现在发生的是，学校里的每个人都看到了霸凌者其实并不那么强大。

But what's happened now is that everyone in school has seen that the bully is not that strong.

每个人都看到霸凌者实际上相当软弱。

Everyone's seen that the bully is actually pretty weak.

于是他们意识到，如果我们站在新来的学生这边，就能打败霸凌者。

And so they recognize that, hey, if we stand alongside the new kid, we can beat the bully.

明白吗？

Alright?

最后，霸凌者被打败了。

And eventually what happens is the bully is defeated.

你们觉得这有道理吗？

Does that make sense to you guys?

好的。

Alright.

所以需要理解的是，没错，霸凌者拥有升级优势，因为他更强壮，是学校里最大的孩子。

So certain things to understand is that, yes, the bully has Escalation dominance because he's stronger and he's the biggest kid in the school.

他可以打倒任何人。

He he can beat up everyone.

但赢得战斗的是控制力。

But what wins a fight is control.

赢得战斗的是协作、调适和战略灵活性。

What wins the fight is collaboration, calibration, strategic flexibility.

这个新来的学生拥有多种选择，而他选择了对自己最有利的战略方案。

The fact that the new kid has many different options and he's picking the option that is most strategically advanced to him.

明白吗？

Okay?

现在，从这个例子中你会注意到，霸凌者实际上并没有太多选择，因为他必须维持自己的面子或信誉。

Now, what you will notice from this example is the bully doesn't have that many options actually because he needs to maintain the idea of face or credibility.

对吧？

Right?

这就是他力量的本质。

This is the essence of his power.

他的力量在于，如果你不听他的，不顺从他，他就会来把你打得鼻青脸肿。

The his power lies in the fact that if you do not listen to him, if you do not obey him, he will come and beat the crap out of you.

对吧？

Right?

这就是信誉。

That's credibility.

但一旦你表现出这一点，其实被他打一拳也没那么严重。

And here's the but the moment that you show that, it's not actually it's actually not that big of a deal to be punched by him.

他没那么厉害。

He's not that strong.

那样的话，他就彻底失去信誉了。

Then he loses all credibility.

明白吗？

Okay?

这意味着他要么退缩，要么被迫更用力地攻击你以杀死你。

Which means that he either retreats or he's forced to strike harder to kill you.

明白吗？

Okay?

为了维持他的威信。

To maintain his credibility.

换句话说，通过战略性地调整你的行为，你可以操纵欺凌者走向自我毁灭。

So another way of saying this is that by calibrating your movements strategically, you can manipulate the bully into self destruction.

你们明白吗？

Does that make sense to you guys?

好了吗？

Alright?

有什么问题吗？

Any questions?

好的。

Okay.

所以这是一种理论。

So that's a theory.

明白吗？

Alright?

那么我们现在要做的，就是将这个理论——升级法则——应用到中东正在发生的事情上。

So now what we're gonna do is we're gonna apply this theory, the Law of Escalation, to what's happening in The Middle East.

行吗？

K?

我们将通过分析伊朗和美国的升级阶梯来实现这一点。

We're gonna do that by looking at the escalation ladders of both Iran and The United States.

好的。

Alright.

明白了。

Okay.

这是美国。

This is The US.

这是伊拉克。

This is Iraq.

好的。

Okay.

让我们来看看他们的升级阶梯。

So let's look at their explanation ladder.

美国首先采取的行动，当然是所谓的斩首行动。

So the first thing that United States does, of course, is something called decapitation.

什么是斩首行动？

What is decapitation?

斩首就是直接杀死你们的领导人，让你们没有领导人，因此你们不知道该怎么办，最终只能投降。

Decapitation is like, I just kill your leaders, you don't have any more leaders, and therefore, you don't know what to do, and therefore, you surrender.

明白吗？

Okay?

这是美国首先采取的行动。

That's the first thing The US did.

但这并没有奏效。

It didn't work.

所以现在美国正在攻击军事目标、防空系统和军事基地。

So now The United States is doing is attacking military targets, air defense, and military bases.

明白吗？

Okay?

这是第二步。

That's the second second step.

其理念是把对方的军队打得落花流水，迫使他们投降，但这也无效。

And the idea is that you beat the crap out of the military so they surrender, but that didn't work either.

明白吗？

Okay?

那么接下来自然就是经济制裁，基本上切断伊朗与世界的贸易往来。

So then what you do next, of course, is economic embargo where you basically prevent Iran from trading with the world.

对吧？

Right?

通过封锁海域，阻止伊朗向中国出售石油。

Prevent Iran from selling oil to China, basically, by blockading the seas.

这里的思路是，如果政府没钱支付士兵工资，士兵们就不会打仗。

And the idea here is that if the government doesn't have any money to pay its soldiers, its soldiers will just not fight.

明白吗？

Okay?

但这个方法也不管用。

But that didn't but that's not working either.

所以接下来，当然就是攻击民用基础设施。

So then what you do, of course, is you attack civilian infrastructure.

明白吗？

Okay?

主要是水源和石油设施。

Which is primarily water and oil.

所以你可能看到新闻了，以色列人袭击了德黑兰的一个油罐。

So you may have seen the news that Israelis attacked an oily pot in Tehran.

现在，如果你看看德黑兰的某个区域，到处都是黑色的。

And now, if you look if you look at a piece of Tehran, it's all black.

明白吗？

Okay?

这是一种战争罪行，或者违反了国际法，因为你攻击的是平民。

And this is a war crime or this goes against international law because you're attacking civilians.

但当你觉得需要施加更多压力来赢得这场战争时，你就会这么做。

But that's what you do when you feel as though you need to apply more pressure to win this war.

明白吗？

Okay?

所以你可以不断升级。

And so you can keep on escalating.

而当你已经攻击了平民，对方仍拒绝投降时，你接下来就会使用秘密武器。

And then what you do is that now the now that you've attacked the civilians and you still refuse to surrender, what you do now is you use secret weapons.

秘密武器可能是前所未见的先进导弹。

Secret weapons might be advanced missiles that no one's ever seen before.

明白吗？

Okay?

这些秘密武器的目的是让人心惊胆战，让你看到我们有多强大。

And the and the point of these secret weapons is to scare the crap out of people and say, you see how dominant we are?

明白吗？

Okay?

如果这招不管用，下一步就会使用生物和化学武器。

If that doesn't work, then what you do next is use biological and chemical weapons.

明白吗？

Okay?

生化武器。

Biochemical weapons.

也不管用吗？

Doesn't work either?

那么，各位，就是核武器了。

Then, guys, nuclear weapons.

明白吗？

Alright?

所以我们必须理解的是，如果你想使用核武器，就必须遵循这个升级阶梯。

So what's really important for us to understand is that you must follow this escalation ladder if you are to use nuclear weapons.

事实上，首先，我们从未见过核武器。

And the reality is that, first of all, we have not seen nuclear weapons.

我们没见过生化武器，因此核武器是更后面的选择。

We have not seen biochemical weapons, and therefore nuclear weapons comes later.

明白吗？

Okay?

除非我看到生化武器被使用，否则我绝不相信核武器会被提上议程。

Unless I see biochemical weapons being used, I refuse to believe that nuclear weapons is on the table.

明白吗？

Okay?

好的。

Alright.

所以我认为我们现在处于对民用基础设施发动攻击的初期阶段。

So I think we are here, which is the beginning of attacks on civilian infrastructure.

但与此同时，我们已经看到美国政治体系内部出现了反对针对平民使用武力的声音。

But already, we're seeing arguments in the American political system against the use of weapons against civilians.

明白吗？

Okay?

原因在于，如果你这么做，一旦摧毁了民用基础设施，就会让民众团结在政府周围。

The reason why is that if you do this, okay, if you destroy civil infrastructure, you unite the people behind the government.

因为你的本意是通过空袭来分化政府与民众，希望民众能为你推翻政府。

Because the idea is that you use airstrikes to split apart the government and the people, and you want the people to overthrow the government for you.

明白吗？

Okay?

这就是这里的意图。

That's that's the idea here.

所以我们现在处于这个阶段，意味着在触及核武器之前还有很长的路要走。

So we are at this stage, meaning that we have a long way to go before we hit nuclear weapons.

明白吗？

Okay?

好的。

Alright.

现在我们来看伊朗的升级阶梯。

So now let's look at the Iranian escalation ladder.

目前的情况是，伊朗一开始会做两件大事。

So what's happening is that in the beginning, Iran does two major things.

明白吗？

Okay?

第一是攻击军事目标。

The first is attack military targets.

明白吗？

Okay?

他们主要针对的是美国的雷达系统和防空设施。

And what they're basically targeting are US radar systems and air defenses.

因为一旦这两者被摧毁，伊朗就可以随意攻击任何目标。

Because once these two things go, then Iran can attack whatever it wants.

明白吗？

Okay?

这还靠近霍尔木兹海峡。

It's also close to Shredder Hormuz.

清楚吗？

Alright?

通过封锁霍尔木兹海峡，你也会对海湾合作委员会以及东亚的经济施加压力。

And by closing the share of Houmaud, you put pressure on the economies of the GCC as well as East Asia.

他们的希望是，通过封锁这些经济体，海湾合作委员会、阿联酋、沙特阿拉伯、伊朗、卡塔尔、科威特会向唐纳德·特朗普施压，迫使他尽快结束这场战争。

The hope is that by blockading the economies, the GCC, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Kuwait will put pressure on Donald Trump to end this war as quickly as possible.

此外，东亚所需的大部分石油都来自海湾合作委员会，来自霍尔木兹海峡。

Also, East Asia receives most of its oil from the GCC, from the show of Hummus.

对吧？

Right?

所以中国大约40%的石油来自那里。

So China gets about 40% of its oil.

日本则有75%。

Japan gets 75%.

这是大量的石油。

That's a lot of oil.

因此，希望这些国家能施压美国，尽快结束这场战争。

So the hope is that these countries will put pressure on United States to end this war as soon as possible.

明白吗？

Okay?

这就是伊朗的策略。

So that is the, Iranian strategy.

但如果他们被迫升级冲突，会发生以下情况。

But if they're forced to go up the escalation ladder, what will happen is this.

如果你攻击他们的经济，他们也会攻击你的经济。

If you attack their economy, they will attack your economy as well.

明白吗？

Okay?

用导弹，主要瞄准油田。

With missiles, basically targeting oil fields.

如果你攻击他们的民用基础设施，他们也会攻击你的民用基础设施。

If you attack your civil infrastructure, they will attack your civil infrastructure infrastructure as well.

这些海湾合作委员会国家的主要弱点是什么？

And what is the main weakness in these GCC countries?

海水淡化厂。

Desalination plants.

明白吗？

Okay?

海水淡化厂。

Desalination plants.

就这样了。

And that's it.

明白吗？

Okay?

这就是伊朗升级阶梯的全部范围。

That's the extent of the Iranian escalation ladder.

因为伊朗没有核武器。

Because because it doesn't have nuclear weapons.

它也没有生化武器。

It doesn't have biochemical weapons.

好的。

K.

它也没有能够打击美国的洲际导弹。

It doesn't have intercontinental missiles that it can target The United States with.

所以正如你所见，美国和以色列的升级容忍度更高，因为它们的升级阶梯可以比伊朗高得多。

So as you can see, oh, The US and Israel have escalation tolerance because it can go way up higher in escalation escalation ladder than Iran.

但这是理解这个问题的错误方式。

But that's the wrong way to understand this.

明白吗？

Okay?

因为如果你看看他们的策略，伊朗比美国拥有更大的灵活性和更精细的调控能力。

Because if you look at their strategies, Iran has much more flexibility, much more calibration than The United States.

明白吗？

Okay?

当美国攻击你时，手段非常直接粗暴。

When The United States attacks you, it's pretty blunt.

但你看，如果我封锁霍尔木兹海峡，我可以在封锁方式上保持策略性。

But look, if I close off the shirt of Hormuz, I can be strategic in how I close the shirt of Hormuz.

例如，如果你是中国的船只，我会让你通行。

For example, if you're a Chinese ship, I'll let you pass.

例如，如果你是海湾合作委员会国家，并且想贿赂我，只要付点钱，我也会让你通行。

For example, if you are a GCC nation and you want to bribe me, you you pay me a tat, I'll let you pass as well.

如果你是海湾合作委员会国家，你会想：你知道吗？

If you're a GCC nation and you're like, you know what?

别管美国了。

Forget The United States.

我不会做伊朗的朋友。

I won't be your friend of Iran.

我也会让你通行。

I'll let you pass as well.

你明白吗？

You understand?

所以，通过这些灵活的手段，就形成了一种精准的策略。

So by closing all the swivel moves, it creates a calibration strategy.

这使伊朗能够有选择性地、战略性地对美国的朋友施加压力，使他们变成伊朗的朋友。

It allows Iran to selectively and strategically apply pressure to the friends of The United States so that they become the friends of Iran.

明白吗？

Okay?

对油井和军事目标的无人机袭击也是同样的道理。

Same thing with these drone strikes against oil fields and military targets.

对吧？

Right?

如果你攻击我，我就用无人机反击你。

If you attack me, I attack you with drones.

但如果你不攻击我，我就不会攻击你。

But if you don't attack me, then I don't attack you.

明白吗？

Okay?

换句话说，k。

So in other words k.

这是一个非常重要的观点。

This is really important idea.

美国和伊朗有不同的军事决策树。

The US and Iran have different military decision trees.

明白吗？

Okay?

好的。

Alright.

让我来解释一下怎么做。

So let me explain how.

因为美国和以色列正在攻击伊朗。

Because United States and Israel, they're just attacking Iran.

明白吗？

Okay?

他们使用空中力量进行攻击，这种方式非常直接。

And they attack with air power, so that's very blunt.

对吧？

Right?

明白吗？

Okay?

所以你一步一步地推进，再下一步，再下一步。

So you go from one step to the next to the next to the next.

明白吗？

Okay?

这就是经典的升级阶梯。

This is this the classic escalation ladder.

伊朗并不像这样。

Iran is not like this.

他们的决策树是不同的。

Their decision tree is different.

明白吗？

Okay?

因为他们的策略是迫使美国承认失败并从海合会撤出。

Because their strategy is to force United States to omit defeat and retreat from the GCC.

明白吗？

Okay?

关闭中东的军事基地，使伊朗能够掌控某些行动，从而控制全球贸易。

To close down the the military bases in the Middle East so that Iran has control of the certain moves and therefore it can control all world trade.

明白吗？

Alright?

这就是他们的战略。

So that's the strategy.

因此，这一战略意味着你有不同的选择。

So this strategy means that you have different options.

明白吗？

Alright?

你的选择包括：攻击以军的军事目标、民用目标，以及特拉维夫。

Your options are, attack ish wheel, your military targets, civilian targets, Tel Aviv.

明白吗？

Okay?

好的。

Alright.

所以我不想在这上面花太多时间，但正如你所见，如果你仔细想想，伊朗在目标选择上可以比美国和以色列更加精准。

So I don't wanna spend too much time on this, but as you can see, if you think about it, Iran can be much more selective in its targeting than United States and Israel.

因此，它所拥有的选项更加多样化，这使伊朗能够掌控局势的升级。

And therefore, the options that it has, it is much more diverse, which gives Iran escalation control over the situation.

明白吗？

K?

你们明白这一点吗？

Do you guys do you guys do you guys understand this?

好的。

Alright.

那我们来看看伊朗为什么在升级阶梯上拥有优势。

So let's so let's look at why Iran has, advantages over the the escalation ladder.

明白吗？

Okay?

美国，伊朗。

US, Iran.

第一个重大区别是，伊朗是主动的，而美国是被动的。

The first major difference is that Iran is active, whereas The US is passive.

K？

K?

另外一点，回到霸凌者的例子，霸凌者必须维持自己的信誉。

Another thing to this is, go back to the bully example where the bully has to maintain credibility.

他必须表现出自己比其他孩子更强大。

He has to show that he's more powerful than the other than the other kids.

对吧？

Right?

所以如果你挑衅他，他别无选择，只能打你。

So if you provoke him, he has no choice in the matter but to hit you.

明白吗？

Okay?

但你，这个新来的，可以选择是否挑衅他。

But you, the new kid, can choose whether or not to provoke him or not.

你可以选择何时去激怒他。

You can choose a timing of when to provoke him.

因此，你是主动的一方。

Therefore, you are active.

明白吗？

Okay?

第二个重大区别是，伊朗有一个明确的战略。

The second big difference is that Iran has a clear strategy.

它知道自己想要实现什么，也知道如何实现目标。

It knows what it wants to accomplish and it knows how to accomplish what it wants.

记住，伊朗想要的是控制局势，并将美国赶出中东。

Remember, what what Iran wants is control the circle of moves, and United States out of the Middle East.

这就是它的目标，它正以特定方式调整其行动来实现这一最终目的，而且这对伊朗非常有效。

That's what it wants to do, and it's calibrating its attacks in a certain way to achieve this end goal, and it's working out very well for Iran.

明白吗？

Okay?

另一方面，美国并不知道自己想要什么。

United States, on the other hand, doesn't know what it wants.

它想摧毁伊朗。

It wants to destroy Iran.

这意味什么？

What does that mean?

明白吗？

Okay?

摧毁。

Destroy.

这可能意味着政权更迭。

It could mean regime change.

这可能意味着经济崩溃。

It could mean economy collapses.

这可能意味着平民开始……

It could mean, the civilian population starts.

明白吗？

Okay?

这可能意味着任何事情。

It could mean anything.

但由于对此含义的模糊和混乱太多，这混淆了军事战略。

But because there's so much ambiguity, so much confusion about what it means, it confuses military strategy.

好吗？

Alright?

最后一点是，伊朗很灵活，而美国却很僵化。

And the last thing is, of course, is that Iran is flexible and The United States is inflexible.

好的。

Okay.

因此，通过研究升级阶梯，我们发现伊朗比美国拥有更多优势。

So by studying the escalation ladder, we discover that Iran has far more advantages than The United States.

明白吗？

Okay?

好的。

Alright.

那么这意味着什么？

So what so what does this mean?

好的。

Alright.

这意味着伊朗最终可能会赢得这场战争，但要赢得这场战争，社会必须进行重大变革。

It means that Iran will probably win this war ultimately, but it has there has to be major changes to a society in order to win this war.

明白吗？

Alright?

所以记住，要赢得一场战斗，你必须具备三样东西。

So remember, to win a fight, you have to have three things.

专注、清晰和决心。

Focus, clarity, and resolve.

好的。

Alright.

你必须清楚自己的目标是什么。

You have to know what your purpose is.

你必须知道如何实现它。

You have to know how to achieve it.

你必须下定决心去实现它。

You have to have you have to be determined to achieve it.

明白吗？

Okay?

那么这对中东意味着什么？

So what does this mean for The Middle East?

这对伊朗意味着什么？

What does it mean for Iran?

首先，专注意味着团结。

What first thing is focus means unity.

也就是说，你必须团结你的民众，这基本上意味着镇压所有反对声音。

Meaning that you have to unite your population, which means basically crushing all of the scent.

我们不能再争论了。

You can't we can't argue anymore.

我们必须为了一个目标团结起来。

We have to unify for a purpose.

明白吗？

Okay?

第二点是清晰，就是要审查人们。

Second thing, clarity, is to, censor people.

审查制度。

Censorship.

我们已经在以色列看到了这种情况，那里不允许拍摄军事打击的画面。

And we're already seeing that in Israel where you're not allowed to film military strikes.

明白吗？

Okay?

如果一架无人机袭击以色列特拉维夫，你不能拍摄并上传到社交媒体。

If a drone comes and attacks Tel Aviv in Israel, you cannot film that and put on on social media.

明白吗？

Okay?

政府会来逮捕你。

The government will come and arrest you.

迪拜也是同样的情况。

Same thing in Dubai.

你不能拍摄迪拜遭到攻击的画面。

You cannot show Dubai being attacked.

明白吗？

Okay?

所以正在发生大规模的审查。

So massive censorship going on.

而‘解决’意味着军事化，中东正走向全面战争。

And resolve just means militarization, where the Middle East moves towards total war.

全面战争意味着每个公民现在都被征召参与战争努力。

Total war just means that every citizen now is recruited into the war effort.

这意味着整个经济都转向了战争。

It just means that the entire economy is geared towards war.

明白吗？

Okay?

我最后要提的一点是：

And one last point I'll make is this.

我们需要理解升级阶梯的是，随着局势升级，我们必须记住这场战争是在多个维度上进行的。

What we need to understand about the escalation ladder is that as it moves up, we have to remember that this war is being fought multidimensionally.

明白吗？

Okay?

那意味着什么？

What does that mean?

这意味着军队只是其中一个维度，但还有四个主要维度。

It means that the military is just one dimension, but there are four major dimensions.

还有其他维度，但我们现在先关注四个主要维度。

There are others, but let's focus on four major dimensions.

明白吗？

Okay?

第一个主要维度是叙事。

The first major dimension is narrative.

叙事基本上就是全球舆论。

Narrative is basically world opinion.

第二是政治。

Second, is political.

政治指的是国家之间的关系。

Political just means the relationship of nations to each other.

政府与人民之间需求的关系。

The relationship of the need of the government to the people.

明白吗？

Okay?

政治。

Political.

第三维度是经济，经济方面。

The third dimension is economical, Economic.

第四是军事。

And the fourth is military.

真正需要理解的是，军事维度可能是最不重要的。

And what's really important to understand is that the military dimension is probably the least important.

还有其他维度重要得多。

There are other dimensions that are much more important.

因此，这四个因素决定了美国和伊朗如何升级对抗等级。

Therefore, these four factors determine how The United States and Iran move up the escalation ladder.

明白吗？

Okay?

因为你的目的是控制舆论，证明你所做事情的合理性。

Because your purpose is to control the narrative and justify why you're doing what you're doing.

政治意味着你仍需与其他国家保持良好关系。

Political means you you still have maintain good relations with other states.

对吧？

Right?

所以，当美国正在对伊朗发动这场战争时，美国仍在与中国对话。

So, as United States is fighting this war against Iran, United States is is still talking to China.

美国仍在与俄罗斯对话。

United States is is still talking to Russia.

明白吗？

Okay?

因此，这种政治层面的对话决定了这场冲突的格局。

So that discussion, that political discussion determines the contours of this fight.

经济层面意味着，当这场冲突仍在进行时，各国仍在相互贸易。

Economic means that as this fight is still happening, nations are still trading with each other.

这会影响军事行动的进行方式。

And that factors into how the military is fought.

明白吗？

Okay?

这说得通吗？

Does that make sense?

我知道这非常复杂，但你必须理解战争有多复杂。

So I know this is very complicated, but you need you need to understand how complicated war is.

它不像你说的那样简单。

It's not as simple as saying, you know what?

我们直接核平那个人吧。

Let's nuke that guy.

事情不是这么做的。

Doesn't work that way.

明白吗？

K?

有很多限制条件。

There are a lot of constraints.

有很多因素和利益相关方制约着核武器的使用。

There's a lot of factors, a lot of stakeholders involved to constrain the use of nukes.

明白吗？

Okay?

好的。

Alright.

好的。

Alright.

那么，我们现在来讨论地面部队。

So, let's now discuss ground troops.

好的。

Alright.

我们首先要问的是：是否会使用地面部队？

The first question we look at is, will ground troops be used?

不幸的是，答案是肯定的。

And the answer unfortunately is yes.

必须使用地面部队。

They have to be used.

这与军队的运作方式有关。

And it has to do with how the military works.

明白吗？

Okay?

关于战争是如何进行的。

Of how wars are fought.

基本上，当你发动战争时，必须建立正确的成本金字塔。

Basically, when you fight a war, you have to have a correct cost pyramid.

明白吗？

Okay?

最简单的成本金字塔，就是这样的。

And the most simple cost pyramid, okay, is is this.

步兵，士兵。

Infantry, soldiers.

明白吗？

Okay?

好的。

Alright.

他们位于最底层。

They're at the bottom.

为什么？

Why?

因为最便宜。

Because of the cheapest.

他们上面是什么？

What's above them?

装甲。

Armor.

明白？

Okay?

火炮、坦克。

Artillery, tanks.

它们的生产成本更高。

They're more expensive to produce.

你需要更多的资源。

You need more resources.

你需要更多的时间。

You need you need more time.

然后你有海军。

Then you have naval.

对吧？

Right?

然后你有空军。

Then you have air.

好的。

K.

这样理解对吗？

Does that make sense?

这是一个成本金字塔。

This is a cost pyramid.

成本金字塔就是这个问题：生产某种产品需要多少能量、多少时间、多少资源？

And cost pyramid just it's this question of, like, how much energy, how much time, how much resources do you need do you need to produce a certain product?

明白吗？

Okay?

生产一名士兵的成本很低，但生产一架飞机的成本却很高。

It costs you very little to produce produce a soldier, but it costs you a lot to produce an airplane.

这一点很重要，因为战争通常是消耗战。

This is important because wars are usually wars of attrition.

这意味着你必须投入所有资源才能赢得战争。

Meaning that you have to put all your resources in to win the war.

明白吗？

Okay?

所以这仅仅是生产能力。

So this is just production capacity.

这是军事战争中成本金字塔最标准的模型。

And this is the most standard model that you have of a cost pyramid for a military war.

明白吗？

Okay?

大家觉得这有道理吗？

Does that make sense, guys?

问题是，美国拥有一个倒金字塔结构。

The problem is that The United States have an inverse pyramid.

明白吗？

Okay?

也就是说，空军占主导，其次是海军，然后是装甲部队，最后是步兵。

Meaning that ear is what's dominant, then naval, then armor, then soldiers.

你不可能这样打一场战争。

You can't fight a war like this.

我的意思是，一旦你选择这样打战争，你就已经输了，因为你要么在两天内摧毁对方国家，要么就撤退，但你无法补充兵力。

I mean, the moment you choose to fight a war like this, you've lost a war because you either take out the country in like two days or you scoot over, but you cannot replenish your forces.

现在，我知道这很难理解，但1991年的波斯湾战争和2003年的伊拉克战争都不是真正的战争。

Now, I I I know this is hard to understand, but 1991, the Persian Gulf War, 2003, the Iraq War, these are not real wars.

明白吗？

Okay?

因为美国人太强大，而伊拉克太弱，简直就像玩电子游戏一样。

Because the Americans were so dominant and Iraq was so weak that it was basically a video game.

懂了吗？

Alright?

就是那些飞行员到处飞，不停地轰炸一切。

It was just these these pilots flying around, just bombing everything.

明白吗？

Okay?

就像坦克里的士兵直接碾压伊拉克军队一样。

It's like guys in tanks just running over the r the Iraqi army.

那些都只是电子游戏罢了。

Those were just video gamed.

但伊朗这件事是一场真正的战争。

But this Iran thing is a real war.

因此，你不能这样打仗。

And therefore, you cannot fight a war like this.

如果你想赢得这场战争，唯一能做的就是回归到一个现实的成本金字塔。

If you wanna win this war, the only thing you can do is return to a realistic cost pyramid.

你别无选择。

You don't have a choice in the matter.

对吧？

Right?

因为再次强调，你最便宜的资源是士兵。

Because again, your cheapest product are soldiers.

对吧？

Right?

而最昂贵的是飞机。

And the most expensive are airplanes.

你无法承担用一架飞机去拯救一名士兵生命的代价。

You cannot afford to use an airplane in order to save the life of a soldier.

最终，这种成本效益分析会反噬你。

Eventually, this cost benefit analysis will blow up on you.

明白吗？

Okay?

好的。

Okay.

各位，这说得通吗？

Does that make sense, guys?

好吧。

Alright.

所以，如果美国想赢得这场战争，它别无选择，只能使用地面部队，将士兵作为军事力量的主力。

So if The United States wants to win this war, then it has no choice but to use ground troops, to use soldiers as the main force of its military.

到目前为止，有什么问题吗？

Any questions so far?

好的。

Alright.

好吧。

Okay.

那么现在的问题是，美国会使用地面部队吗？

Now the question then is, will The United States use ground troops?

我已经说过，如果美国想赢得这场战争，别无选择，只能使用地面部队。

I already said that if The United States is to win this war, that's no choice but to use ground troops.

但美国会使用地面部队吗？

But will The United States use ground troops?

很多事情取决于各方的博弈策略。

And a lot is determined by the game theory strategies of the different players.

明白吗？

Okay?

让我们来看看这场战争中的四大主要参与者。

So let's look at the four major players in this war.

你有美国、以色列、沙特阿拉伯和伊朗。

You have US, you have Israel, you have Saudi Arabia, and you have Iran.

明白吗？

Okay?

好的。

Alright.

所以美国和伊朗，他们的立场很容易理解。

So United States and Iran, they're pretty easy to understand.

美国想做的就是摧毁伊朗。

What The United States wants to do is destroy Iran.

明白吗？

Okay?

为什么？

Why?

因为如果我们摧毁了伊朗，美国就能完全控制中东的石油，并通过霍尔木兹海峡掌控全球贸易。

Because if we were to destroy Iran, the United States would have complete control over Middle East oil, and it would control global trade for the strength of Hormuz.

因此，美国可以维持其帝国。

And therefore, The United States can maintain its empire.

明白吗？

Okay?

所以，这是一个非常简单的目标。

So, a really simple objective.

让我们摧毁伊朗。

Let's destroy Iran.

我们不在乎方式，也不在乎原因，就直接去做了吧。

We don't care how, we don't care why, let's just go do it.

明白吗？

Okay?

伊朗有另一种策略，就是控制霍尔木兹海峡并摧毁中央司令部。

Iran has another strategy, is control straight of a moose and destroy SANCOM.

中央司令部基本上就是美国在中东的军队，称为中央司令部。

SANCOM is basically, the American military in The Middle East called central command.

明白吗？

Okay?

所以，这些都是伊朗的两个主要军事目标。

So, those those are two major military objectives of Iran.

我们可以理解为什么。

And we can understand why.

因为如果西克莫尔被摧毁，伊朗将完全控制中东。

Because if the Sycamore is destroyed, Iran has complete control over the Middle East.

现在看迪拜。

Now, Dubai.

现在，阿曼、布兰、科威特都必须向伊朗缴税。

Now, Oman, Buran, Kuwait have to pay taxes to Iran.

现在，伊朗成了中东的新霸主。

Now Iran, the new kid is on the bully of the Middle East.

对吧？

Right?

现在它成了霸主。

Now it's a hegemon.

这就是这场战争的政治目标。

That is the political objective of this war.

明白吗？

Okay?

以色列的情况稍微复杂一些。

Israel is a bit more complicated.

清楚吗？

Alright?

对于以色列啊，抱歉。

For Israel oh, sorry.

抱歉。

Sorry.

抱歉。

Sorry.

以色列还有什么谦卑之处？

What other thing is humble Israel?

那还有另一点，因为即使你击败了美国，你也说过他们会对付以色列。

That that that's the other thing because even if you even if you defeat The United States, you said they would deal with Israel.

明白吗？

Okay?

以色列是中东的军事强国。

And Israel is the great military power of the Middle East.

所以你想削弱他们。

So you want to humble them.

你想削弱他们。

You wanna weaken them.

你不能摧毁以色列，因为以色列拥有核武器。

You can't destroy Israel because Israel has nuclear weapons.

对吧？

Right?

你惹怒了以色列，那些核弹就会飞出来。

You piss off Israel, those nukes start flying.

你不想看到那种情况。

You don't want that.

对吧？

Right?

所以，这些是伊朗的三大政治目标。

So those are the three major political objectives for Iran.

控制圆圈行动，摧毁桑坎，削弱以色列。

Control the circle moves, destroy Sankham, and humble Israel.

明白吗？

Okay?

如果你是以色列，实际上，你的策略是不同的。

If you are Israel, actually, for you, the strategy is different.

你想做的是这样。

What you wanna do is this.

你想摧毁桑康和伊朗。

You want to destroy Sankom and destroy Iran.

明白吗？

Okay?

这就是你的目标。

Those are your objectives.

为什么？

Why?

因为如果你同时摧毁美国和伊朗，你就将成为中东唯一的霸权。

Because if you destroy both The United States and you destroy Iran, then you are the sole hegemon in the Middle East.

明白吗？

Okay?

还要摧毁海合会。

Also destroy the GCC.

也要摧毁沙特阿拉伯。

Destroy Saudi Arabia as well.

为什么？

Why?

因为一旦沙特阿拉伯被摧毁，它的所有资源就都归你了。

Because once Saudi Arabia is destroyed, all its resources belong to you.

明白吗？

Okay?

这会催生一个被称为“大以色列计划”的项目，我们下节课将讨论这个内容。

And this creates something called the Greater Israel Project, which is what we will discuss next class.

但正如你所见，非常重要的一点是，即使美国和以色列是盟友，他们的最优战略也不同。

But as you can see, it's really important, is that even The United States and Israel are allies, their optimal strategy is different.

他们的目标是不同的。

Their objectives are different.

事实上，他们之间存在冲突。

In fact, they're in conflict.

明白吗？

Okay?

他们拥有沙特阿拉伯。

They have Saudi Arabia.

沙特阿拉伯想做什么？

What does Saudi Arabia wanna do?

嗯，摧毁伊朗，因为如果你摧毁了伊朗，你就完全掌控了谁主导局势的斗争。

Well, destroy Iran because if you destroy Iran, you have complete control of the struggle of who moves.

然后你就可以大胆行事。

Then you you can be a boldy.

明白吗？

Okay?

但你也想摧毁美国，并让以色列屈服。

But you also wanna destroy The US and you want to humble Israel.

清楚吗？

Alright?

这说得通吗？

Does that make sense?

好的。

Alright.

因此，通过理解每个参与者如何看待这场博弈，我们现在就能明白他们会如何制定自己的策略。

So by understanding how each player perceives the game, we can now understand how they will go about their strategy.

对吧？

Right?

所以美国只想摧毁伊朗。

So The United States just wants to destroy Iran.

但正如你所见，以色列、沙特阿拉伯和伊朗都希望摧毁美国。

But as you can see, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran all want to destroy The United States.

那么你该如何做到这一点呢？

And how do you do that?

你通过迫使美国陷入一场长期的地面战争来实现这一点。

You do that by forcing United States into a long ground war.

对吧？

Right?

因此，你是以色列，你不想使用核武器。

Therefore, you're Israel, you don't want to use nukes.

为什么？

Why?

因为核武器会让战争过早结束。

Because nukes would end the war too quickly.

你希望尽可能延长这场战争，以迫使美国派遣地面部队。

You wanna drag this war out as long as possible to force The United States to send in ground troops.

然后你会问，为什么美国不使用核武器？

And then you're like, well, why doesn't The United States use nuclear weapons?

答案我已经告诉过你了，那就是升级阶梯。

And the answer I is is already told you, the escalation ladder.

它需要向民众证明自己的正当性。

It needs to justify justify itself to the to the people.

明白吗？

Okay?

当你做任何事情时，好吧，当你做任何事情时，抱歉。

When you do anything, alright, when you do anything sorry.

当你做任何事情时，你必须考虑某些因素。

When you do anything, you have to worry about certain factors.

明白吗？

Okay?

你必须关注部队的士气。

You have to worry about troop morale.

你的士兵必须相信他们正在为正义的事业而战。

Your soldiers have to believe that they are fighting for a good cause.

明白吗？

Okay?

你必须关注公众舆论。

You have to worry about public opinion.

你必须确保全世界站在你这一边。

You have to make sure that the world is on your side.