本集简介
双语字幕
仅展示文本字幕,不包含中文音频;想边听边看,请使用 Bayt 播客 App。
大家好,欢迎收听私募资本播客。
Hello, and welcome to the private capital podcast.
我是乔·莱利,Circulus集团的负责人,该集团是家族办公室领域的交流平台。
I'm Joe Riley, head of Circulus Group, which is a forum for the family office world.
我们将于9月19日在纽约举办首届家族办公室活动。
We are hosting our first family office event in New York on September 19.
如果您是单一家族办公室成员并希望参加,可以在我们的Substack(网址circulus.substack.com)上申请邀请函。
If you are a single family office and would like to attend, you can request an invite on our Substack, which is at circulus.substack.com.
活动链接可在'事件'栏目下获取,也会包含在节目备注中。
There's a link available under events and will be included in the show notes.
我们很荣幸邀请到GoldenTree的史蒂夫·坦南鲍姆、阿波罗集团的托尔斯滕·斯拉赫,以及Manai金融的佐伊·克鲁兹,共同探讨私募股权金融科技与全球宏观展望。
We're happy to have Steve Tanenbaum of GoldenTree, Thorsten Slach of Apollo, and Zoe Cruz from Manai Financial joining us, where we'll cover private equity fintech and the global macro outlook.
希望您能参与。
I hope you can join us.
格雷格·弗莱明是洛克菲勒资本管理公司的总裁兼首席执行官,自2018年3月公司(前身为Rockefeller & Co)成立以来一直担任该职。
Greg Fleming is the president and chief executive officer of Rockefeller Capital Management, a role he has held since the firm, formerly known as Rockefeller and Co, launched in March 2018.
在加入洛克菲勒之前,格雷格曾任摩根士丹利财富管理和投资管理部总裁。
Prior to Rockefeller, Greg was the president of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management and Morgan Stanley Investment Management.
2010年入职摩根士丹利前,他担任美林证券总裁兼首席运营官,并曾主管美林全球投资银行业务。
Prior to joining Morgan Stanley in 2010, he served as president and chief operating officer of Merrill Lynch and previously ran Merrill's global investment banking business.
格雷格1992年以投资银行家身份加入美林证券,此前曾是博思艾伦咨询公司合伙人。
Greg joined Merrill Lynch as an investment banker in 1992, and prior to that, he was a principal at Booz Allen.
格雷格以最优等成绩毕业于科尔盖特大学经济系,获Phi Beta Kappa荣誉,并拥有耶鲁法学院法学博士学位。
Greg is a Phi Beta Kappa, summa cum laude graduate of Colgate University with a bachelor's degree in economics, and he received his JD from Yale Law School.
我与格雷格探讨了2008年9月雷曼兄弟危机关键周末期间他促成美林证券出售给美国银行的过程,他对财富管理领域有机增长与并购的看法,与维京资本共同创立洛克菲勒资本并延续洛克菲勒家族办公室传统,六年内将管理资产从180亿发展到1400亿美元的历程,以及他坚信'好人能赢'的理念。
Greg and I discussed the pivotal Lehman weekend of September 2008 when he was instrumental in the sale of Merrill Lynch to Bank of America, his thoughts on organic growth and mergers in wealth management, the founding of Rockefeller Capital with Viking and building on the legacy of the Rockefeller family office, growing from 18,000,000,000 to a $140,000,000,000 in assets under management in six years, and his belief that nice guys can finish first.
请欣赏我对格雷格·弗莱明的专访。
Please enjoy my interview with Greg Fleming.
本播客仅用于教育和娱乐目的。
This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only.
嘉宾或主持人所言均不应被视为法律或投资建议。
Anything said by the guests or host should not be construed as legal or investment advice.
感谢收听。
Thanks for listening.
那是2008年9月13日,星期六。
So Saturday, 09/13/2008.
气温约70华氏度,天色略显阴沉。
It's about 70 degrees and a little overcast.
你的闹钟响了。
Your alarm rings.
请告诉我们之后发生了什么。
Tell us what happened after that.
2008年9月13日那个周六,我不确定自己是否需要设闹钟。
Saturday, thirteenth two thousand and eight, I'm not sure I needed to set an alarm.
前一天周五晚上回到家时,我清楚地意识到我们将面临一个历史性的周末。
That night, Friday evening, I got home, and it was clear that we were facing a historic weekend in my eyes.
事实上,我在周五白天就向不少人提到过这点。
And in fact, I told a number of people that during the day on Friday.
那天上午我们刚与美林董事会开过电话会议。
We'd had a board call at Merrill Lynch that morning with our board.
所以当我周五深夜回到家时——记得那时已接近午夜11点或12点——我意识到接下来的48小时将是金融业的关键时刻。
So when I got home late Friday evening, and it was late eleven or 12:00, I remember thinking that the next forty eight hours are going to be pivotal in the financial industry.
我深信尽管美林证券是极具价值的金融品牌——这个我们稍后可以详谈——当时我们还持有贝莱德49%的股份。
I was convinced that despite the fact that Merrill Lynch was a tremendous franchise, and we can talk about that in a in a second, we had a 49% ownership in BlackRock.
直到那年夏天前,我们还持有迈克尔·彭博公司20%的股份。
We still owned until that summer 20% of Mike Bloomberg's company.
它拥有出色的财富管理业务,一家非常优秀的投资银行。
It had a great wealth management business, a great a very good investment bank.
尽管美林是一个极好的特许经营品牌,但我确信我们必须在那个周末找到合作伙伴,否则从下周一(15号)开始,美林将面临风险。
Despite the fact that Merrill was a wonderful franchise, I was convinced that we would need to find a partner that weekend, or Merrill Lynch would be at risk starting on Monday of the following week, the fifteenth.
那时,我作为投资银行家已有很长的工作经历,在各种情况下与高管合作,担任顾问并成为首席执行官的核心顾问。
And I have at that point, I had a long history as an investment banker, working with senior executives across a whole series of situations where I was the adviser and the key adviser to the CEO.
所以我深知在交易业务中一个周末的价值,以及周五晚上与其他晚上之间的差异——从周一到来直到下个周五。
So I knew the value of a weekend in the deal business and the difference between Friday evening and every other evening once Monday came, all the way till the next Friday.
为什么投资银行业务总是要在周末完成?
What is it about investment banking that it always ends up happening on the weekends?
你有48小时的时间。
You have the forty eight hours.
市场从周五下午4点关闭到周一早晨,你可以利用这段时间实际完成交易,而在工作日里一夜之间完成是非常困难的。
Markets are closed from Friday 04:00 until Monday morning, and the extra time you can take advantage of to actually put a deal together over that period, and it's very hard to do overnight during a week.
所以周末就是一切尘埃落定的时候。
So weekends are where it all comes together.
还有许多交易处于即将完成的'红区'阶段,也会在周末敲定。
And there are many deals that are in the red zone close to being done that get finished on a weekend as well.
所以并不是从零开始。
So it's not you start from scratch.
实际上我们周六与美国银行接触时几乎是从零开始的。
We virtually started from scratch with B of A on Saturday when we engaged them.
他们与我们相识已久。
Now they had a we they knew us for a long time.
他们长期以来对美林很感兴趣,但真正的谈判是在周六和周日进行的。
They were interested in Merrill Lynch for a long time, but the negotiation really was Saturday and Sunday.
尽管我们最终完成了交易,但我不确定如果等到下周市场开盘时还能否成功。
Even though we were able to get that done, I don't know that happens when markets open the following week.
现实情况是,在雷曼兄弟申请破产保护后的周一,市场表现极其糟糕,以我们手头的现金和当时的情况,美林证券很可能撑不过那个周一。
And the reality is markets ended up being so bad on Monday after Lehman filed for chapter 11 then Merrill would probably not have gotten through the day on Monday with the cash we had on hand and the situation we were in.
周六早晨,我四点五就起床了。
Saturday morning, I had I was up at four five.
要说睡觉的话,也只是短暂且断断续续地睡了一会儿。
I slept, if anything, briefly and intermittently.
那天是什么样的情况?
And what was that day like?
那天是...
What was Well,
那天开始时,我正在完善夜间写下的几份笔记。
the day the day started with me finalizing a few notes I had written during the night.
我记得妻子对我说:'现在是周五晚上。'
And I remember my wife saying to me, it's Friday night.
你周五通常都累得直接睡觉。
You're usually exhausted on Friday, you sleep.
为什么...为什么你还不睡?
Why why are you not asleep?
我回答说:'这是我人生中从未经历过的周五夜晚。'
And I said, this is not any Friday night I've been through in my life.
整晚我都在准备要与时任美林证券CEO约翰·塞恩阐述的要点,关于为何我们需要立即与美国银行就美林证券的潜在出售展开谈判。
And during the night, I had been working on the points I wanted to make with John Thane, the CEO of Merrill Lynch at the time, on why we needed to engage in a negotiation with Bank America immediately on the potential sale of Merrill Lynch.
所以我完善了这些要点,并写在便签上。
So I finalized those, and I had them on an on a note.
早上六点我给他打电话,他接起来说:'我正要冲澡。'
And I called him at six in the morning, and he answered, and he said, I'm jumping in the shower.
'我马上给你回电。'
I'll call you right back.
他给我回电了
And he called me back.
他正赶往美联储——保尔森、伯南克和盖特纳召集了所有CEO开会,他想让我同去
He was heading to the Fed where all the CEOs had been called by Paulson, Bernanke, and Geithner, and he wanted me to join him.
我说:我...我不想去那儿
And I said, I I don't wanna come there.
我要专注于美林证券的事
I wanna focus on Merrill Lynch.
我们必须让肯·刘易斯今天就过来见你
We have to get Ken Lewis to come and meet with you today.
我永远忘不了他的第一反应
And I'll never forget his first reaction.
他对我说:你慌了
He said to me, you're panicking.
我说:我...我不这么认为
I said, I I don't think so.
我说:这是我们的机会窗口
I said, this is our window.
他列举了充分理由:我们持有贝莱德一半股份
And he went through good arguments around we own half of BlackRock.
我们拥有最优秀的财富管理业务
We have the best wealth management business.
没道理我们股票周五收盘价才十七美元
There's no reason our stock had closed at seventeen on Friday.
嗯
Mhmm.
没理由我们的股票会像雷曼那样崩盘
There's no reason our stock should be run down the way Lehman's had been.
那年早些时候贝尔斯登事件后,我们的现金储备很充足。
Bear Stearns earlier that year, our cash position was strong.
我说如果弗利曼这周末脱不了身,情况会比实际可能更糟,那一切就都完了。
And I said none of it's gonna matter if Fleeman doesn't get out of this weekend and if things get a lot worse than they really could.
于是我们反复讨论,他对我说:'我会从那边给你打电话。'
So we went back and forth, and he said to me, I'll call you from down there.
他挂断了电话。
He hung up.
我没有得到任何解决方案。
I had no resolution.
没人联系美国银行。
Nobody was calling BofA.
于是我联系了我的好友艾德·赫利,当时是,现在也是。
So I called Ed Hurley, who's a good friend of mine, was then, still is.
顶级律所沃奇泰尔·立顿,他当时是肯·刘易斯和美国银行的法律顾问。
Great law firm, Wachtell Lipton, and he was counsel to Ken Lewis and Bank of America.
我终于打通了他的电话。
And I finally got him on the phone.
我们互相留了言。
We traded calls.
我说肯·刘易斯应该来和约翰·塞恩谈谈美林的事。
And I said, Ken Lewis should come and talk to John Thane about Merrill Lynch.
我知道你们都对美林感兴趣。
I know you all are interested in Merrill Lynch.
机会就在眼前。
This is the window.
艾德对我说:'你能代表约翰·塞恩说话。'
And Ed said to me, you speak for John Thane.
我说,约翰和我在讨论这件事。
And I said, John and I are talking about this.
我说话很谨慎,因为我也想说服约翰。
And I was careful what I was saying because I was trying to convince John as well.
他对我说,我们不会来。
And he said to me, we're not coming.
在约翰打电话给肯之前,肯哪儿也不会去。
Ken's not going anywhere until John calls him.
我说,我很难联系上塞恩。
And I said, I'm having a hard time getting a hold of Thane.
埃德·赫利说,说得好。
And Ed Hurley, he said, great line.
埃德很有幽默感。
Ed has a great sense of humor.
我可以把手机给他,因为他当时就坐在我对面——埃德当时在场。
He's I can give him my phone because he's sitting across from me in the Fed because Ed was there.
我说,好吧。
And I said, okay.
于是我打电话给塞恩·查莫普。
So I called Thane Chamop.
我又给他打了一次电话。
I called him again.
他给我回了电话。
He called me back.
最后我接通了他的电话,他说“你真的开始惹恼我了”,因为我说“你需要打电话给肯特·刘易斯”。
Eventually, I got him on the phone, and he said, you're really starting to annoy me because I said, you you need to call Kent Lewis.
他说,你为什么不直接安排会议呢?
And he said, why don't you just set the meeting up?
我来负责这次会议。
I'll do the meeting.
我说过,除非你和他谈,否则他不会来。
I said, he's not coming unless you talk to him.
他问,为什么不呢?
He said, why not?
我回答,因为他们想确认你对这事是认真的。
I said, because they wanna make sure that you're committed to this.
然后他说,我该跟他说什么?
And he said, what am I gonna say to him?
我说,我不知道。
I said, I don't know.
告诉他纽约天气不错,你想坐下来和他谈谈。
Tell him the weather's nice in New York, and you wanna sit down and talk to him.
最终,我说服约翰给他打了电话。
Eventually, I convinced John to call him.
他联系了肯。
He called Ken.
肯乘飞机从夏洛特赶来。
Ken got on a plane, flew up from Charlotte.
他们在纽约美国银行大厦肯的公司公寓会面,并同意由美银的格雷格·凯尔和我——格雷格·弗莱明——来商讨潜在交易。
They met at Ken's corporate apartment in New York, BofAce, and they agreed that the Gregs, Greg Kearl for Bank of America and me, Greg Fleming, would talk about a potential deal.
约翰在那次会面中向肯·刘易斯表示可能出售美林部分股权,而肯说如果要交易他就要全部。
John, in that meeting, had said to Ken Lewis he wanted to maybe sell a stake in Merrill, and Ken said, I want the whole thing if we're gonna do it.
从那时起我们就正式启动了谈判。
And then we were off to the races at that point.
你是否考虑过
Did you consider
出售股份吗?
selling a stake?
我从未这样做过。
I never did.
那根本不够。
It wouldn't have been enough.
我们仍将面临同样的挑战。
We would have still had the same challenges.
以银行家的敏锐嗅觉,你们当时是否察觉到雷曼真正的危机?
And with the bankers' nose, did you at the time, did you folks have a sense for the real trouble at Lehman?
我们知道资产负债表存在严重问题,而且我作为银行家很清楚他们没有能快速行动的合作伙伴。
We knew that the balance sheet had real issues, and we knew I knew as a banker that they didn't have a party that could act that quickly.
当时金融服务业只有一家公司做过足够多的交易且足够老练,能在那个周末的48或72小时内完成如此规模的交易——那就是美国银行。
There was only one firm in financial services at the time that had done enough deals and and was savvy enough on deals that they would be comfortable putting together a deal of that magnitude with all the stakes of that weekend in forty eight or seventy two hours, and that was Bank of America.
别无选择。
There was nobody else.
所以我们在和...我担心美国银行会重新考虑雷曼。
So we're talking to I I was afraid Bank of America would go back to Lehman.
他们有过对话。
They had dialogue.
这就是我对约翰·塞恩提出的部分论据。
And that was part of my argument to John Thane.
如果他们收购雷曼,我们就孤立无援,将成为风险敞口——因为市场当时正逐个击破金融机构。
If they buy Lehman, we have nobody, and we will be the ones exposed because the market had been working its way through one firm after another.
贝尔斯登规模最小。
Bayer was the smallest.
雷曼是下一个目标。
Lehman was next.
市场当时非常明确地认为美林会是第一个目标,接着是摩根士丹利,然后是高盛。
It was very clear that the market thought Merrill was after that, and then Morgan Stanley, and then Goldman.
当时的局势就是这样发展的。
And that's how it was working.
所以美国银行将成为收购方,而我显然希望被收购的是美林。
So Bank of America was the firm that was going to buy somebody, and I wanted it to be Merrill, obviously.
因此我知道如果我们与美国银行接洽,雷曼兄弟的处境就会非常危险。
So I knew if we were engaged with Bank of America that Lehman was very exposed.
他们没有任何后援。
They had nobody.
当时完全没有考虑过政府会介入吗?
At that point, there was no consideration that the the government would come in?
就在一两周前,政府态度很明确,汉克·保尔森明确表示在房利美和房地美救助之后,不会再有任何救助计划。
One or two weeks earlier, the government had been clear, Hank Paulson had been clear, that after the Fannie Freddie bailout, there were no more bailouts.
他们在这个问题上立场非常坚定。
They were crystal clear on that.
如果你查阅历史记录,就能看到这一点。
If you go back in the record, you could see that.
因为过去十五六年里,历史事实被稍微模糊化了。
Because history's clouded that a little bit over the fifteen year period, sixteen year period now.
但政府当时并不打算实施救助。
But the government was not there for a bailout.
他们认为美国公众不会支持这种做法。
They felt like the American public wasn't there to support it.
这也是我当时向约翰提出的另一个论点。
That was another argument I was making to John.
没有人会来帮我们。
Nobody's going to help us.
我们必须靠自己完成这笔交易。
We need to get this deal done ourselves.
你有没有想过反事实的情况,比如如果雷曼兄弟获救了会怎样?
Do you ever think about counterfactuals, like if Lehman had been rescued?
我有时会想这个问题。
I think about that sometimes.
我来告诉你我的想法:如果他们获救了,无论是被政府救助,我们本可以继续与美国银行达成交易。
I'll tell you so I think about that in the sense that had they been rescued, either if they been had by the government, we could have still done the deal with BofA.
如果美国银行收购了雷曼,到下周一我们就会陷入非常困难的境地。
If BofA had bought Lehman, we were in a very difficult spot comes Monday.
但我考虑过不同的反事实情景,事后看来我不确定政府是否会不救助雷曼——如果他们知道周一和周二的市况的话。
But I thought about different counterfactuals, and I'm not convinced with hindsight that the government wouldn't have bailed out Lehman if they knew what the markets were gonna look like on Monday and Tuesday.
正如保尔森所说,他们确实别无选择,只能在周二介入AIG。
They really had no choice, as Paulson said, but to step in on AIG Tuesday.
他担心整个银行体系、整个金融系统会崩溃。
He was afraid the whole banking system, the whole financial system was gonna collapse.
所以我认为他们也进行了反事实推演。
So I think they engaged in counterfactuals too.
我要告诉你我花更多时间思考的反事实情景,这也是促使我想建立洛克菲勒资本管理公司的部分原因——关于美林证券的假设。
I'll tell you the counterfactual I have spent more time on, and that's part of what led me to want to build Rockefeller Capital Management, is Merrill Lynch.
当时美林证券持有贝莱德49%的股份。
Merrill Lynch at the time owned 49% of BlackRock.
这笔交易是我帮忙促成的。
That was a deal that I helped put together.
我们在2005年将美林投资管理公司卖给他们,换回了贝莱德49%的股权。
We sold them Merrill Lynch Investment Management in 2005 and took back a 49% stake in BlackRock.
随后我和当时的CEO斯坦·奥尼尔一起加入了董事会。
And I went on the board with, at the time, our CEO, Stan O'Neill.
那时我与贝莱德已有很长的合作历史。
I had a long history with BlackRock at that point.
我们在1999年以每股14美元的价格将其上市。
We had taken them public in 1999 at $14 a share.
我从九十年代中期就认识拉里·芬克,至今他仍是我的良师益友。
So I've known Larry Fink since the mid nineties, and he remains a friend and mentor to this day.
当时我们持有贝莱德49%的股份。
So we had 49% of BlackRock.
那年夏天之前,我们还持有彭博社20%的股份——这是另一家卓越的企业。
Before that summer, we still owned 20% of Bloomberg, another tremendous company.
我们拥有可以说是最优秀的财富管理业务和前三的机构业务。
We had arguably the best wealth management business and the top three institutional business.
因此当我思考美林时,如果它挺过了危机,如今可能成为市值两三千亿美元的公司——仅它持有的49%贝莱德股份(现价值约750亿美元)和20%彭博业务就价值不菲。
So when I think about Merrill, had it made it through the crisis, Merrill could be a 2 or $300,000,000,000 company today because two of their assets, BlackRock 49% of BlackRock, I believe, is worth approximately 75,000,000,000 today, and 20% of Mike Bloomberg's business is worth quite a bit.
若不是固定收益业务背负的资产负债表风险,美林本可以渡过难关并繁荣至今。
So Merrill could have come through that had we not had all that balance sheet risk on the fixed income side and and be thriving today.
这是我反复思考的一个反事实假设。
So that's a counterfactual that I have thought of.
我仍对我们当时的决定感到欣慰,因为那些资产负债表风险确实存在,我们必须采取行动。
I'm still pleased we did what we did because we did have all that balance sheet risk, and we did need to do it.
但美林大部分业务本不必承担那些资产负债表风险。
But that balance sheet risk was unnecessary for most of what had been built at Merrill Lynch.
这家拥有95年历史的伟大企业,本应凭借其深厚的文化底蕴延续至今。
And it was a ninety five year old company that had a was a great company with a long standing culture that ought to still be around today.
正是这种遗憾促使我离开摩根士丹利后,寻求建立像洛克菲勒那样能经久不衰的顶级机构。
So that was that's part of what spurred me on after I left Morgan Stanley to look for something like Rockefeller that we could build in a way that would create a best in class institution that could exist and be around for a long time.
我们来聊聊整个财富管理行业吧。
So let's talk a little bit about wealth management as a whole.
或许你该继续保持银行家的思维,因为这里面有太多值得探讨的问题。
Maybe just keep your banker's hat on because there's so many interesting questions about it.
我很好奇,评估资产管理业务的诀窍是什么?
I'm curious, what's the trick to valuing asset management businesses?
如何得出真实的估值?
How do you get to the real valuation?
乔,我要稍微区分一下资产管理和财富管理。
Joe, I'm gonna distinguish a little bit asset management and then wealth management.
资产管理这个领域我相当熟悉。
So asset management is a business I'm quite familiar with.
我九十年代在美林证券工作时,就是以投资银行家的身份进入这个行业的。
I worked as an investment banker in that industry starting in the nineteen nineties at Merrill Lynch.
也正是这样我认识了拉里·芬克。
And that's really how I met Larry Fink.
当时掌管先锋集团的杰克·布伦南,现在是我们洛克菲勒资本管理公司的首席董事。
Jack Brennan, who ran Vanguard at the time, is our lead director at Rockefeller Capital Management.
几十年来他既是我的导师也是挚友。
He's been a mentor and friend for decades.
当时管理MFS的杰夫·沙姆斯现在是洛克菲勒资本管理公司的高级顾问,我在摩根士丹利时他就是我的密友兼高级顾问。
Jeff Shames, who ran MFS at that time, is a senior adviser here at Rockefeller Capital Management, was a senior adviser when I was at Morgan Stanley as a close friend.
我对这些业务非常了解。
I know those businesses really well.
正如你所记得的,八九十年代资产管理是高速增长的行业。
Asset management was the growth business, as you remember, in the eighties and nineties.
共同基金规模爆发式增长。
Mutual funds exploded.
纯多头业务确实是高增长业务。
The long only business really is a high growth business.
所以你用EBITDA现金流的倍数来评估那些企业,它们的估值相当高。
So you valued those businesses on multiples of EBITDA cash flow, and they were quite highly valued.
事实上,其中一些至今仍保持高估值。
In fact, some of them still are.
贝莱德因其公司品质仍享有溢价估值。
BlackRock still with a a premium valuation because of the quality of the firm.
我曾将资产管理称为最佳的中介形式之一,因为如果你建立了一家优秀的公司,就能通过获得更多客户资产来有机增长业务,而市场总体呈上升趋势。
I used to talk about asset management as one of the best forms of intermediation because if you build a great company, you can grow the business organically by getting more client assets to manage, and the markets on average go up.
因此仅凭持续经营,业务规模就会自然增长。
So there's an underlying increase in the scale of the business just from being there.
虽然周期有起有落,但长期来看市场是向上的。
Cycle obviously goes up and down down, but over time, markets go up.
在我看来,如今的财富管理是最卓越的金融中介形式。
Wealth management to me today is the greatest form of financial intermediation.
资产管理已变得极具竞争性,尤其是传统的纯多头业务。
Asset management has become quite competitive, particularly the original long only business.
行业已大规模转向另类投资——这期播客你们花了大量篇幅讨论,我们稍后可以详谈。
There's been a major move as to alternatives, which you've spent a lot of time on your podcast talking about, which we could get to.
这些仍是优质业务,但财富管理行业——特别是我们专注的高净值和超高净值投资者领域(目前以美国人为主)——正处在高速增长期。
And they're still good businesses, but the wealth management industry, particularly for the piece that we're in, high net worth and ultra high net worth investors, mostly Americans so far, that's a really high growth business.
过去一二十年间,这些领域涌现了大量新客户。
There have been many new clients created in those spaces over the last ten and twenty years.
我们与客户的关系主要是咨询性质的。
The our relationship with our clients is mostly advisory.
我们通过收费模式与他们合作。
We work with them with a on a fee based relationship.
我们为客户提供全方位的建议。
We're there to counsel them on everything.
我们正努力为他们的所有挑战提供答案和解决方案。
We're trying to provide answers and solutions to all of their challenges.
如果你能打造出一套具有竞争力且差异化的能力体系,那确实是一门好生意。
That business is a really good business if you can create a set of capabilities that are competitive and differentiated.
对我来说,财富管理业务——特别是面向高净值与超高净值客户及家族的业务——是金融服务领域里极佳的选择。
For me, the wealth management business, I like to add particularly for high net worth and ultra high net worth clients and families, is a terrific business to be in financial services.
你会如何区分?
How would you make the distinction?
进行估值时,不能只看EBITDA。
When you're doing valuation, you don't just look at EBITDA.
无论是EBITDA倍数还是盈利倍数,长期来看最终都与行业增长前景挂钩,这点你也清楚,其次还取决于竞争公司自身的增长情况。
The multiples, whether it's EBITDA or even earnings multiples, ultimately, over time, are tied to the growth prospects of the industry, you know that, and then the growth of the company that's competing.
我们在洛克菲勒经常讨论内生增长,这本质上是客户对你作为顾问的终极信任。
We talk all the time at Rockefeller about organic growth, which is the ultimate confidence the client is placing in you as the adviser.
他们要么委托更多资金让你管理,要么新客户直接表示:‘我们的财富业务就交给洛克菲勒全球家族办公室’。
They're either giving you more money to advise them on, or you have a new client that comes and says, Rockefeller Global Family Office is where we have our wealth business.
这就是我们在该领域使用的品牌。
That's the brand we use there.
‘洛克菲勒全球家族办公室,现在能满足我的财富管理需求吗?’
Rockefeller Global Family Office, can you now take care of my wealth needs?
因此,如果你在一个增长前景良好的行业中实现内生增长,那么作为上市公司,你的EBITDA和盈利倍数将是金融服务领域里最高的估值水平之一。
So if you're growing organically in an industry that's got a great growth trajectory, then the multiple of EBITDA and earnings that if you were a public company, you're trading at is among the highest multiples that's going to be awarded in financial services.
2017年市场上有很多优质公司可供选择。
There were a number of great companies in play in 2017.
为何最终锁定Rock and Co?
How did you land on Rock and Co?
这个名字——洛克菲勒。
The name, Rockefeller.
我们曾认为——事实上我们对此非常满意甚至超出预期——这个名字不仅在美国,在全世界都是传奇与标志性的代名词。
We thought, and we've been more than happy with this, even surprised on the upside, that this name is one of the legendary, iconic names, not just in The United States, but around the world.
我们原以为通过与洛克菲勒家族的合作能建立一番伟业。
We thought we could build a great business around our partnership with the Rockefellers.
为了让你们感受洛克菲勒家族的影响力,如今这个家族横跨七代约有300名成员。
And just to give you a sense of the Rockefeller name, there are approximately 300 Rockefellers today across seven generations.
家族创始人老约翰·洛克菲勒,其财富在当时所处的世界环境中相对而言堪称惊人。
The family patriarch, John Rockefeller senior, his wealth at the time on a relative basis in the world he was in was extraordinary.
有估算认为其资产曾占美国GDP的4%,按今日标准显然超过万亿美元。
Some estimate as much as 4% of US GDP at the time, which today would obviously take him over a trillion dollars.
可见其金融财富之巨。
So tremendous financial wealth.
但第二代的小约翰·洛克菲勒真正将慈善事业推向高峰。
But the second generation, John Rockefeller junior, really took philanthropy and and pushed it.
他们是世界上首批伟大的慈善家。
They were the world's first great philanthropists.
在教育领域,洛克菲勒家族于1884年内战结束19年后创办了斯佩尔曼学院(以劳拉·斯佩尔曼·洛克菲勒命名)来教育解放的黑奴。
So the Rockefeller family, on the education front, started in '9 in 1884, Spelman College to educate freed slaves, named after Laura Spelman Rockefeller, nineteen years after the civil war.
他们创立了洛克菲勒大学,这里诞生了28位诺贝尔奖得主。
They've started Rockefeller University, where 28 Nobel Prizes have been awarded.
他们创办了芝加哥大学——毋庸置疑的顶尖学府。
They started the University of Chicago, tremendous school, obviously.
在艺术方面,他们创建了现代艺术博物馆、林肯表演艺术中心和亚洲协会。
On the art side, they started the Museum of Modern Art, Lincoln Center, the Asia Society.
他们向全美国家公园捐赠土地,包括阿卡迪亚、大提顿、怀俄明州杰克逊镇等地,这些公园的建立实由洛克菲勒家族推动,他们为杰克逊地区的公园系统贡献了大量土地与支持。
They've donated land for national parks across the country, Acadia, Grand Teton, Jackson, Wyoming, but was really started by the Rockefellers, and they gave a lot of land and support to the park service out there in in in Jackson.
1920年他们在中国建立了一所医院。
They built a hospital in 1920 in China.
这是当今中国最顶尖的医院之一。
That's one of the finest hospitals in China today.
慈善事业仍在继续。
The philanthropy goes on.
他们2016年在西弗吉尼亚州建立了洛克菲勒神经科学研究所。
They started a Rockefeller Neuroscience Institute in 2016 in West Virginia.
你既拥有财富,又汇聚了所有这些慈善努力与投资,还融入了流行文化。
So you take the wealth, you take all that philanthropic effort and and investment, and then you take the popular culture.
这个名字被无数歌手写进过歌里,从弗兰克·西纳特拉到比利·乔尔,从Jay Z到玛丽·布莱姬。
The name has been used in song by everybody from Frank Sonata to Billy Joel to Jay Z to Mary Blige.
当你把这些都结合起来,就得到了一个跨越世代都受人尊敬的名字。
You put it all together, and you have a name that people across generations respect.
我父亲即将91岁了。
My father is going to be 91.
我61岁。
I'm 61.
我的孩子们二十多岁。
My kids are in their twenties.
所有这些世代的人听到洛克菲勒这个名字时,都会心怀敬意。
All of those generations hear Rockefeller, and they have respect for it.
所以当我们听说有可能收购历史悠久的洛克菲勒家族办公室Rock and Co时,我们非常兴奋,认为可以在此基础上与洛克菲勒家族合作开展业务。
So that when we heard that we might have the possibility of buying the long standing Rockefeller family office, Rock and Co, We were quite excited about doing that, and we thought we could build a business around that in partnership with the Rockefellers.
他们是我们的合作伙伴。
They are our partners.
小大卫·洛克菲勒和彼得·奥尼尔担任我们董事,所以他们与我们共同参与。
David Rockefeller Junior and Peter O'Neill sit on our board, so they're in it with us.
他们对我们用这个家族名字所取得的成就感到非常自豪。
And they're quite proud of what we've done with the family name.
洛克菲勒资本管理被视为一家卓越的公司,他们建立了一套值得自豪的能力体系,但选择'Rock and Co'家族办公室正是因为洛克菲勒这个名字。
The Rockefeller Capital Management is viewed as a an excellent company and building a set of capabilities of which they can be proud, but the name Rockefeller was the reason we went with the Rock and Co family office.
那么是你主动向维京提出你的愿景,还是这件事自然发生的?
Now did you approach Viking with your vision, or how did this did it come about organically?
实际上维京主动联系了我,这点值得称赞。
Viking actually approached me to their credit.
我认识维京作为投资者已有多年,特别是在摩根士丹利时期。
I had known Viking as an investor for years, particularly in the Morgan Stanley years.
当我离开摩根士丹利时,接到了布莱恩·考夫曼的电话,他现在负责维京所有私募投资业务并担任我们董事会成员。
When I left Morgan Stanley, I got a call from Brian Kaufman, who's now running leads all private investing at Viking and sits on our board.
他想坐下来探讨合作可能性——由维京提供投资资金,我来领导公司并组建团队。
And he wanted to sit down and talk about possibility of doing something together where Viking would provide the investment capital, and I would lead the company and build the team.
当时还有其他私募股权公司可选。
And there were other private equity firms.
乔,那时我在这个行业已经23年了——在美林17年,摩根士丹利6年。
At that point, Joe, I I had been in the industry twenty three years, seventeen at Merrill and six at Morgan Stanley.
所以我熟悉所有私募股权公司。
So I knew all of the private equity firms.
我认识那些公司所有的高层领导。
I knew the senior leaders at all of those firms.
因此我与多家私募股权公司进行过对话,探讨他们与我合作的可能性——主要由他们提供资金,由我来运营项目。
So I was having dialogue with different private equity firms about them working in partnership with me, most of the capital for something that I would run.
但从初次会面开始,维京就给我留下了深刻印象。
But I was quite impressed with Viking from the start as we sat down and started going through it.
他们与我观点一致:面向高净值与超高净值客户的财富管理是绝佳业务,特别是按照我们规划的方式——提供全面建议而非仅资产配置和投资咨询,还包括税务与代际规划、财富策略、慈善咨询等——这些我们稍后会详细讨论。
They had the same view I did that wealth management for high net worth and ultra high net worth clients was a great business, particularly if you did it the way we intended to, which we've done, which we'll get to, which is trying to provide comprehensive advice, not just asset allocation and investment advice, but tax and generational planning, wealth strategies, philanthropic advisory.
如今我们践行着所有这些服务,这正是我们最初的愿景。
We do all of that here today, and that was our original vision.
洛克菲勒全球投资银行,如果您有企业需求,我们将为您提供专业建议。
Rockefeller Global Investment Banking, if you have a business, we'll give you advice on that.
洛克菲勒资产管理公司在开放式架构下,为您准备了可通过顾问运用的多元化策略。
Rockefeller Asset Management, we've got strategies there that you're able to utilize as a client through your adviser in an open architecture context.
维京与我共同坚信这一愿景。
Viking believed in that vision alongside me.
他们的投资理念令我深感钦佩。
They had an investment philosophy that I was quite impressed with.
他们称之为GBGM标准——卓越企业,卓越管理。
They call it GBGM, great business, great management.
他们寻求具备理想特质的企业。
They look for a business they like the characteristics of.
他们组建自认为优秀的管理团队,并授权其自主执行。
They put in place a management team they think is a really good one, and then they tell the management team, you go ahead and execute.
我们在目标与预算方面紧密合作,始终高度契合双方最初的愿景。
We work closely with them on targets and budgets, and we've been remarkably close to the original vision we both set out.
但日常运营完全交由我们负责。
But day to day, they leave it to us.
他们很明智。
They're smart.
他们参与所有重大决策,但清楚没有人比我和我的领导团队更关心洛克菲勒资本管理的运营状况。
They're involved in all the big decisions, but they know that nobody could care more than me and my leadership team about how things are going at Rockefeller Capital Management.
我们是一支经验丰富的成熟领导团队。
And we're an experienced seasoned leadership team.
他们信赖我们的决策——虽非尽善尽美,但他们知道我们会及时调整,总体而言总能做出优于其他管理团队的决定。
They rely on us to make We don't get them all right, but they know we we will pivot and we will, on average, make a better decision than another management team.
让我们详细探讨下商业模式,因为您将公司重组为三个独立板块。
Let's expand on the business model a little bit because you reorganized the firm into three distinct sections.
那么你是如何构思出这个架构的?为什么选择这样的结构?
So how did you come up with the structure and and why?
部分原因源于我在美林和摩根士丹利多年的个人经历。
Some of that was a function of my personal experience over my years at Merrill and Morgan Stanley.
我决心将投资银行业务纳入我们的业务范畴,因为我当时就坚信——如今更是确信——在美国,许多财富是由创业家族创造的。
I was determined to add investment banking to the mix of things that we did because I believe I believe then and I believe even more now that in The United States, a lot of wealth is created by families that build businesses.
我希望具备投行服务能力,为这些家族提供专业建议。
And I wanted to have an investment banking capability to provide advice to those families.
所以当我们收购Rock and Code时,乔,它只有财富管理和资产管理业务。
So when we bought Rock and Code, Joe, it had a wealth management business and an asset management business.
当时没有投行业务,所以我们从零开始搭建。
There was no investment banking, so we built that from scratch.
根据在前公司的经验,我相信如果能建立全方位的服务体系——后来我们称之为洛克菲勒全球家族办公室——当家族客户带着跨领域需求来访时(正如我前面描述的)
I also believe from my time at my former firms that if we could build a comprehensive set of capabilities in what we came to call Rockefeller Global Family Office, and if the family comes in and they have a broad cross section of needs across all the things that I just I've described earlier.
当然包括投资组合表现与资产配置,还有遗产规划、专业税务建议,以及通过财富策略团队为第二代第三代提供的财商教育。
Of course, investments and investment performance and asset allocation, but estate planning, sophisticated tax advice and through our wealth strategies group, financial education for the second or third generation.
慈善顾问会帮您根据财富状况设立符合目标的基金会,精品投行会为您的企业提供建议,资产管理能力随时供您调用。
Philanthropic advisory will help you set up a foundation with your objectives and your wealth in mind, the boutique investment bank where if you own a business, we'll give you advice on that, the asset management capabilities that you can utilize.
不过全部采用开放架构。
It's all open architecture, though.
您既可以使用我们卓越的现有服务,
So you can use the capabilities we have, and we have some terrific ones.
我们的投资平台汇聚了业内顶尖投资者,尤其在多头策略和另类投资领域,这些资源都向顾问及其客户开放。
But we have a an investment platform with many of the best investors in the industry, particularly across the long only and alternatives that are available through our investment platform for our advisors and their clients.
在资产管理方面,我们也具备强大的服务能力供客户选择。
But on the asset management side, we we have some terrific capabilities that they can utilize.
我希望能将这些模块有机整合,构建成洛克菲勒资本管理现有的完整体系。
I wanted those pieces to be interconnected and built into what we have here at Rockefeller Capital Management.
所以我们并非拥有三家独立运营、自主经营的业务。
So we don't have three separate stand alone businesses that operate autonomously.
显然它们在不同时间点确实如此运作。
They obviously do at different points in time.
洛克菲勒全球投资银行可能正在为某家公司提供投行咨询服务,这就是他们为该企业所做的全部。
Rockefeller Global Investment Banking might be providing investment banking advice for a company, and that's all they're doing for the company.
洛克菲勒资产管理公司可能正在为机构客户管理资金。
Rockefeller Rockefeller Asset Management might be managing money for an institutional client.
但更多时候,这些业务会通过洛克菲勒全球家族办公室协同合作,投行和资产管理业务中的各项能力常被整合服务于家族办公室里的高净值与超高净值客户。
But oftentimes, they come together around Rockefeller Global Family Office, and the capabilities within that investment bank and within that asset management business are often brought to bear for the high net worth and ultra high net worth clients that exist in Rockefeller Global Family Office.
如何从零开始创办一家投资银行?
How do you start an investment bank from scratch?
我知道你职业生涯早期曾重组美林的投行业务。
I know you spent early part of your career revamping the investment bank at at Merrill.
你从那段经历中学到了哪些有助于白手起家的经验?
What lessons did you learn from that to help you start from zero?
这个问题问得好。
That's a great question.
很高兴你提到这个,因为我最近也在回顾职业生涯初期——我从法学院毕业后先在博思艾伦咨询公司做管理顾问,那段经历让我受益匪浅。
It's great for you to go back because I was thinking about as we were coming into my career that I hadn't in in a while, and I started as a management consultant after I graduated from law school at Booz Allen and Hamilton, and I liked that a lot.
那是个解决问题的过程。
It was problem solving.
我接触了众多不同企业和行业,涉足不同地域。
I learned about a lot of different companies and different industries, different geographies.
此前我没什么旅行经历,但那段时间我走遍全球为各类企业提供咨询。
I hadn't done a lot of traveling in my life, and I traveled all over the world advising companies of different kinds.
我曾在伦敦生活过一段时间,特别喜欢那种解决问题的感觉。
I lived in London for a while, and I liked the problem solving aspect of that.
但最终我在四年半后离开了,因为我想要运营和管理。
But I was I I left ultimately after four and a half years because I wanted to operate and manage.
我想成为做决策的人,而不是提供建议后让别人说‘好吧’。
I wanted to be the one making the decision, not providing the advice and having somebody say, okay.
我们会接受这部分,但不会做那部分。
We'll take this part, but we won't do that part.
这就是我离开的原因。
And that's why I left.
后来我接到猎头电话,获得了美林证券市政金融业务中公共金融首席运营官的职位。
And I went to I had gotten a call from a headhunter about a job at Merrill Lynch, and I went in within the municipal finance business as a chief operating officer of public finance there.
于是我开始转向管理岗位,这也让我回到你最初的问题。
So I started on the management side, and this is leading me all the way back to your question.
在那个岗位工作几年后,我转去投行部门服务客户,这很棒——我曾和你聊过在那里做的项目,许多我服务过的客户都成了终身客户和朋友。
So I then after doing that for a few years, I went and I worked with clients on the investment banking side, which was great because I talked to you about some of the things I did there and the clients that I advised, many of whom became lifelong clients and friends.
但在投行工作数年后,我又开始回归管理岗位。
But after doing that for a number of years, I started getting back into the management side.
正如你所说的那样。
So exactly what you said.
九十年代末期,我先后执掌美国金融机构组和全球金融机构组,并担任投行部首席运营官。
In the late nineties, was running the US Financial Institutions Group, then the Global Financial Institutions, and I was chief operating officer for investment banking.
后来我负责投行业务,并联合管理机构业务。
Then I ran investment banking, co ran the institutional business.
因此我有充足时间参与业务重组,并理解如何构建这些业务。
So I had time to work on restructuring businesses and understanding how to build these businesses.
所以当我们在洛克菲勒筹建投行时,我清楚应该重点发展什么,规避什么。
So fast forward to Rockefeller when we're building the investment bank here, I knew the things that we wanted to emphasize, and I knew the things that we wanted to avoid.
最关键的部分是我之前谈到的‘连接性’
The piece that was most important was the connectivity that I talked about before.
我们的投资银行家需要习惯于将大部分时间用于服务家族企业客户。
Our investment bankers needed to be comfortable spending a good part of their time working with families that own businesses.
这些企业的规模可能较小。
Those businesses might be smaller.
他们可能寻求建议,但尚未准备好进行交易或达成协议。
They might be looking for advice, but not ready for a transaction or a deal.
我们仍需要投资银行家关注这些家族客户,因为他们是我们的客户,我们想为他们提供这些建议。
And we still need our investment bankers to pay attention to those families because they're our clients, and we wanna provide them this advice.
如今在史蒂夫·瓦伦蒂诺的领导下,这些投资银行家的大量时间都用于服务洛克菲勒全球家族办公室的客户。
So under Steve Valentino's leadership today, a lot of the time that those investment bankers spend is working with Rockefeller Global Family Office clients.
因此我们需要招聘愿意从事这项工作、并认为这是他们工作中有趣部分的银行家,同时他们也要能为企业和大客户处理潜在数十亿美元的交易。
So we needed to hire bankers that were willing to do that, that found that to be an interesting part of what they do in addition to doing deals, potentially multibillion dollar deals for corporations and big clients.
我们基于这一理念进行人才招募。
So we recruited with that in mind.
我们非常注重银行家是否理解这一模式、适应这种文化,并且我们经常讨论横向协作。
We're very focused on bankers that understood that model, that fit the culture, and we talk a lot about horizontal connectivity here.
我们希望公司最优秀的人才能够跨部门协作,为客户服务。
We want the best people across the firm to be working across silos on behalf of clients.
我们这里没有部门壁垒。
We don't have silos here.
每个人都专注于为客户做正确的事。
Everybody's focused on the right thing for the client.
这些投资银行家需要理解:这不仅关乎你完成的交易和一月份将获得的奖金。
Those investment bankers needed to absorb that, and it's not just about the deals that you get done and the bonus that you're gonna get in January.
展开剩余字幕(还有 347 条)
这关乎你在洛克菲勒全球家族办公室服务的客户,以及你与公司其他部门洛克菲勒资本管理同事展现的合作精神与团队意识。
It's about the clients that you're working with within Rockefeller Global Family Office, the collaboration, collegiality that you exhibit to Rockefeller Capital Management colleagues elsewhere in the firm.
因此在构建这家投资银行时,所有这些因素都与找到优秀投资银行家同等重要。
So in building that investment bank, all of those things were as important as finding great investment bankers.
并且愿意在周末工作。
And being willing to work weekends.
在投资银行业务中,这是你必须做的。
In the investment banking business, that's what you gotta do.
虽然不是每个周末,但周末已经够多了。
Not all weekends, but there are enough weekends.
请再详细说说,保持你的银行家视角,因为这非常有趣。
So tell us again, keeping your banker hat on because this is so fascinating.
请谈谈目前财富管理领域可用的各种扩张资本类型,显然私募股权约占90%的资金来源,但还有家族基金、主权财富基金以及债务融资。
Tell us about the different flavors of expansion capital that are out there and available to folks in the wealth management space because there's obviously, PE is probably about 90% of the fuel out there, but there's also families, sovereigns, and obviously debt.
作为银行家,你认为这些不同形式资本的优缺点是什么?
As a banker, what do you think the pros and cons of these different forms of capital are?
正如我所说,我们对维京作为创始股东和持续大股东非常满意。
We as I said, we've been quite happy with with Viking as our founding equity partner and continuing majority owner.
我们去年通过他们在加拿大的实体IGM引入了德马雷家族,他们现在持有我们公司20.5%的股份。
We brought in the Demarets last year through one of their entities in Canada, IGM, and they now own 20 and a half percent of our firm.
乔,我们是这样考虑的——针对你关于不同资本池的问题,我们现在有两个家族股东。
And the way we think about that, Joe, is that we now have two families, to your question about different pools of capital.
我们有德马雷家族和洛克菲勒家族,因为洛克菲勒也持有我们公司的部分股份。
We have the Demarets and we have the Rockefellers, because the Rockefellers own a piece of our company as well.
我们很欣赏这点,因为他们理解长期投资。
And we like that because they understand long term investing.
他们理解我们在这里提供的建议的本质。
They understand the nature of the advice that we're providing here.
所以我们很满意,而且我认识德马雷家族很久了。
So we were happy, and I've known the Demarets a long time.
我知道他们认同我们正在创建的这类公司。
So I knew that they they believed in the type of firm we were creating.
我们拥有共同的价值观。
We have shared values.
德马雷家族通过加拿大鲍尔集团,现已传承至第二代。
The Demarets, through Power Corp of Canada, are on their second generation.
老保罗·德马雷创立了这家公司。
Paul Demarets senior started the company.
他已离世,如今他的两个儿子小保罗和安德烈执掌着鲍尔集团。
He's no longer in the world, and his two of his sons, Paul Junior and Andre, run the power world today.
在我最初负责机构业务后来担任总裁时,小保罗曾是我们美林国际咨询委员会的成员。
Paul Junior was on our international advisory board at Merrill when I was first running the institutional business and then president.
过去十年里我与安德烈相知甚深,他们都非常出色。
And Andre, I've gotten to know really well in the last ten years, and they're terrific.
他们认同我们的事业理念和建设方式,是长期投资者。
And they believe in what we're doing here and how we're building it, and they're long term investors.
我们青睐这样的家族。
So we families like that.
虽然并非所有家族都如此,但我们对德马雷家族和洛克菲勒家族非常满意。
That's not gonna be every family, but we're quite pleased with the Demareys and the Rockefellers.
除此之外,我们与维京集团的合作也很愉快。
The beyond that, we've clearly been happy with Viking.
你遗漏了一个类别——基于我们早前讨论的原因,这些公司仍具有巨大的战略投资价值。
One category you left out, there's still a tremendous amount of strategic interest in these companies because of what we talked about earlier.
财富管理是金融服务业增长最快的领域之一,若能做好,就能通过有机增长获得高倍数和高估值。
Wealth management's one of the fastest growing spaces in financial services, and if you do well there, you can capture a lot of that in your own organic growth generating a high multiple and a high valuation.
因此仍有许多战略投资者对这个业务感兴趣。
So there are lot of strategics that are still interested in the business.
近十多年来,财富管理领域的并购活动一直非常活跃。
So merger activity has been robust in wealth management for almost over a decade.
我认为过去两年大约有300笔交易。
I think there was something like 300 transactions in the last two years.
长期来看,当前支付的高倍数合理吗?
Can the multiples that are being paid be justified long term?
就像你刚才提到的,很多资金都在私募领域,所以最终必须有个退出机制。
Like you just mentioned, a lot of this money is in PE, so there has to be an exit at some point.
高估值倍数与增长密不可分。
High multiples are tied inextricably to growth.
如果你能通过打造优秀企业和成功模式实现有机增长,那么我认为高倍数是合理的。
And if you can grow organically because you've built a great company with a winning model, then I think they're justified.
从宏观层面看,这个领域非常优质,所以整体估值倍数都很高。
The space is such a good space on a macro level that the multiples are high across the board.
虽然会随周期波动,整个领域的规模也会变化,但在我看来,增长才是估值的关键。
Some of that goes up and down with the cycle, the magnitude of the overall space, but growth is for me and and from a valuation perspective, growth is the key.
这就是为什么我们要花这么多时间讨论增长问题。
And that's why we spend so much time here talking about growth.
如果你有家高速成长的公司,优秀人才都会想加入。
If you have a growth company, great people wanna go work there.
员工会有更多发展机会和施展空间。
There's opportunities for people to do more, to do other things.
这对客户关系来说是极好的。
It's a wonderful to have with your clients.
你们在提供建议方面做得很好,所以客户会委托更多资金,或推荐新客户给你们。
You're doing a really good job providing them advice so they give you more money to take care of, or you get a new client or you they recommend you somewhere.
因此估值与整个领域的吸引力挂钩,而乔,这种吸引力不会改变。
So the valuation is tied to the attractiveness of the overall space, which, Joe, isn't going to change.
就客户群体而言,我们讨论的是高净值和超高净值人群。
On the for the client base, we're talking about high net worth and ultra high net worth.
在美国,这类人群将会越来越多。
In The United States, you're gonna have more and more of these people.
全球范围内这类人群正不断增长,而我们这个品牌名称在世界各地都能很好地传播。
You have more and more of these people around the world, and we've got this name that would carry very well everywhere else in the world.
这个领域前景广阔,这种趋势不会改变。
So the space is a great space, and that's not gonna change.
真正能实现高水平有机增长的成功企业,其高估值态势将持续保持。
And the really successful companies that are able to achieve high levels of organic growth are gonna be continue to be highly valued.
优秀的顾问团队,是面包还是鱼子酱?(注:俚语,指基础配置还是高端配置)
Great advisers, bread or baw?
我认为优秀的顾问应该经验丰富,长期服务于高净值与超高净值客户群体。
What I would say is great advisers are experienced and have been working with high net worth and ultra high net worth clients for a long time.
因此我们正在招募业内顶尖顾问,他们都拥有服务此类客户及家族的丰富经验。
So we're hiring the best advisers in the industry who have a lot of experience working with those types of clients and families.
我们称他们为精英顾问,他们确实以精英标准开展工作。
We call them elite advisers, and they really do operate that way.
我们不是那种供人学习如何接触高净值客户的培训机构,也不是那种只服务过个别高净值客户就指望发展更多类似客户的组织。
This is not an organization where you wanna come and you wanna learn to start to work with high net worth and ultra high net worth clients, or where you've got one such client and you're hoping someday to have more.
我们认为优秀顾问应当具备丰富经验,懂得如何调动全套专业工具并充分发挥其价值。
We think great advisers are those who have the experience, understand how to bring the full toolkit, to leverage the full toolkit.
要记住,顾问加入我们之前,可能长期只为客户家族提供投资方面的服务。
Because remember, when the adviser comes here, they might have been working with the family historically more just on the investment side.
但我们现在已构建了顾问可调用的全方位服务体系。
But we've built all these capabilities that the adviser can leverage now.
我们通过顾问高效整合所有服务能力。
And we bring all the capabilities to bear efficiently through the adviser.
因此客户家族希望继续由长期合作的顾问担任主要对接人。
So the family, the client, they wanna see the adviser they've been working with for a long time on point.
但那位顾问可以运用金融教育、慈善咨询、我们世界一流的财富策略团队,以及资产管理团队——如果他们想将这些资源用于固定收益、小盘股或其他我们已建立强大能力的领域。
But that adviser can leverage financial education, philanthropic advisory, our wealth strategies group, which is world class, our asset management team, if they want to utilize them for fixed income or small cap or some of the areas that we've really built great capabilities.
他们希望与我们的投资银行家合作。
They wanna work with our investment bankers.
我们通过首席顾问协调这一切,但我们寻找的是曾与我们目标客户群体——高净值与超高净值人群、复杂家庭(那些面临多重复杂性的家族)——合作过的顾问。这些客户正因如此,能从我们构建的所有独特资源中获益,而这些资源坦白说在许多竞争对手那里并不存在。
We coordinate that all through the lead adviser, but we're looking for advisers that have worked with clients that are our target client base, high net worth and ultra high net worth, complexity, families that have a lot of complexity, and that can benefit, because of that, from all the different resources that we've built that they can now draw in here that frankly don't exist in a lot of the competitors.
回顾你的职业生涯,投行人才与财富管理者的领导特质是否存在差异?
So looking back over your career, is there a difference in the leadership qualities of investment banking talent versus wealth managers?
这是个好问题。
That's a good question.
我认为归根结底,成功的领导者都具备许多共同特质,无论是在财富管理、投行、科技还是政府领域。
I think in the final analysis, successful leaders share a lot of the same characteristics, both in wealth management and investment banking, in technology, in government.
我在职业生涯中花费大量时间担任领导职务,对于领导者该如何组建优秀团队并每日激励他们朝着共同使命前进,我有清晰的见解。
And I I've spent a lot of time now in leadership in my career, and I have clear views on the things that are important for a leader to do to get a great team in place and galvanize them behind a common mission every day.
这就是为什么我们如此强调企业文化。
That's why we talk so much about culture here.
在创立洛克菲勒资本管理公司前,我曾任职于三家企业。
I I had worked at three firms before we started Rockefeller Capital Management.
乔,当我来到这里时,我决心要打造一个我一直向往的工作文化环境。
I was determined, Joe, when we came when I came here, to create a firm with the culture that I had always wanted to work within.
我们强调在每项工作中追求卓越。
We talk about excellence in everything that we do here.
我们1350名员工都多次听过我最喜欢引用文斯·隆巴迪的话——这位著名橄榄球教练可能借鉴或转述了亚里士多德关于卓越的论述。
One of my favorite quotations that all 1,350 people would have heard many times is Vince Lombardi, the famous football coach, who's probably been reading or paraphrasing Aristotle on excellence.
隆巴迪说:‘完美虽不可及,但若我们追逐完美,或能抓住卓越。’
But Lombardi said, quote, perfection is not attainable, but if we chase it, we might just catch excellence.
这里的每个人都全力以赴追求卓越。
People work really hard here to do a great job.
我们力求在与客户合作的每个环节都追求卓越。
We want excellence in every aspect of how we're trying to work with our clients.
若有所失,我们会迅速调整方向,力求修正并重回正轨。
If we miss it, we pivot and we wanna fix it and go back.
因此我们以卓越为起点。
So we start with excellence.
但我们不希望追求卓越、辛勤工作和高标准会牺牲积极的工作环境。
But we didn't want the focus on excellence and the hard work and the high bar here to not come with a positive working environment.
所以我们强调协作与同事情谊。
So we talk about collaboration and collegiality.
我们希望员工走出电梯时,是真心想来办公室工作。
We want employees and people to get off the elevator and want to be in the office.
他们渴望与世界顶尖人才共事。
They want to work with other world class people.
这是个充满活力的地方。
It's an upbeat place.
有句名言我整个职业生涯都在反驳——尽管某些领域的领导者并不认同——
One of the quotations that I have worked to disavow my whole career, and there are people who don't agree with this, who are in leadership in different places.
棒球经理里奥·德罗谢尔那句著名的'好人都垫底'。
But Leo Derocher, the baseball manager, famously said, quote, nice guys finish last.
我为2024年更新了这句话,我的女儿们很赞同,大家都该如此——
I update that for 2024, my daughters are happy about and everybody should be.
我说优秀的男女都能夺冠,这是我深信不疑的。
And I say nice men and women can finish first, and I really believe that.
而这正是我们这里所践行的。
And that's what we have here.
但我也告诫子女、团队里的年轻人,当他们向我寻求建议时:若你选择这种处世之道,就必须早起勤奋,方能致胜。
But I also tell my children, our team here, young people when they ask me for advice, if that's what the approach you're going to have, then you wanna get up early and work hard so that you can win.
因为你想要一个协作、友好、愉快的工作环境。
Because you wanna have a collaborative, collegial, nice working environment.
但如果仅此而已,你在企业环境中将无法长久立足。
But if that's all you have, you're not gonna be around in a corporate context for very long.
你还必须具备卓越的能力,并设定高标准。
You've gotta have the excellence as well, and you've gotta have that high bar.
你必须拥有追求目标的动力和坚韧。
You've gotta have the drive and the tenacity to go after that.
我们将这些要素融合在此,这得益于我创办这家公司之前二十八年的职业生涯积累。
We've put that together here, and this is a function of the prior twenty eight years of my career before I started this.
员工薪酬是财富管理预算的重要组成部分。
So staff compensation is a a large part of wealth management budgets.
你认为在提供全套服务的同时,是否有办法提高运营效率?
Do you think there's a way to increase operational efficiencies while still offering this full suite of services?
你可以经营一家高效的企业。
You can run an efficient business.
在业务增长过程中,你可以扩大利润空间,同时照顾好团队。
You can have, as you're growing, expanding margins, and you can take care of your team.
你需要强大的技术支持来实现这一点。
You need to have great technology to do that.
2024年,解答你问题的关键要素之一就是先进技术。
In 2024, one of the keys to your question is great technology.
我们拥有由马克·亚历山大领导的世界级技术团队,他曾在美林为我们管理技术部门。
We have a world class technology team led by Mark Alexander who ran technology for us at Merrill.
我担任总裁期间,他是整个公司的技术与运营负责人。
When I was president, he was head of technology and operations for the whole firm.
在美国银行收购后他继续留任多年,大约三年前我把他请到了这里。
He stayed on after Bank of America bought it for a number of years, and I brought him over about three years ago here.
我们在新泽西州汉密尔顿拥有一支主要由优秀技术专家和运营团队组成的队伍。
We have a team in Hamilton, New Jersey primarily of great technologists, operations team.
他们与公司内部的业务人员紧密合作,乔,致力于横向连接。
They work closely back to horizontal connectivity, Joe, across the firm with the business people.
他们不会闭门造车地设计系统。
They don't design systems in a vacuum.
他们与顾问、客户助理及客户共同设计系统,这才是应有的工作方式。
They design systems with the advisers, with the client associates, and with the clients And this is how it should look.
这才是关键所在。
This is what's important.
因此,若能将技术渗透到业务各个环节,你就能照顾好团队、实现收入增长,同时在这个过程中扩大利润率。
So if you have technology imbued across your business, you can take care of your team, grow top line, and also expand your margins as you're doing that.
2024年的技术是实现这一目标的关键。
The technology in 2024 is the key to that.
自您接手以来,这家公司实现了迅猛发展。
This firm has grown dramatically since you've taken over.
我很好奇从管理者的视角看出去是怎样的景象。
I'm curious what the view from the bridge is like.
你们的整体战略是否有所调整?
Has your overall strategy changed a bit?
我们的战略与2018年3月1日创立公司时的布局完全一致。
Our strategy is really consistent with what we had in place when we started the firm on 03/01/2018.
其实早在2017年,当我们研究Rock and Co并构建财务模型预测与Viking的合作前景时,就对将要建立的业务形态及其长期发展有了清晰认知,至今我们仍保持着这种一致性。
But even before that, in 2017, when we were looking at Rock and Co and working on models on how things would play out financially with Viking, we're quite consistent with what we thought upfront in terms of the business that we would build and how it would look over time.
我们带着丰富的财富管理经验而来,并准备在此建立相应的能力体系。
We had a lot of experience coming into this with wealth management, with the set of capabilities we'd be putting in place here.
对于如何实现目标,我们有着非常清晰的愿景。
We had a pretty clear vision as to how we wanted to do this.
这并不意味着我们没有在多个领域做出调整。
That doesn't mean we didn't pivot in a whole bunch of places.
如果你不这么做,那本身就是个挑战。
If you don't do that, that's its own challenge.
但我们正沿着最初确定的轨迹前进。
But we're on a trajectory that we we identified up front.
而从增长角度来看,乔,这个战略重点就是美国市场。
And that focus, Joe, from a growth standpoint was on The United States.
我们希望以洛克菲勒之名,在全美各大财富中心建立业务版图——这个目标我们已经实现了。
We wanted to take the name Rockefeller and build it out across all the major wealth centers in The US, and we've done that.
我们现在覆盖约30个财富中心,设有50个办事处。
We're in about 30 wealth centers now, 50 offices.
最初我们只有3个办事处。
We started with three offices.
这就是战略核心:在主要财富中心建立据点,配备顶尖顾问,充分利用我们打造的所有能力优势。
So that was really the core of the strategy, which was to put a footprint in place in these major wealth centers with elite advisers, leveraging all the capabilities I talked about us having built.
这是我们最初的愿景。
That was our original vision.
因此自公司创立以来,我们一直在执行该计划,这个规划已实施了七八年。
So we've been executing on that since we started the firm, but that plan was has been in place now for seven or eight years.
但规模化是否存在弊端?
Are there any drawbacks to scale, though?
发展到某个阶段确实会有。
At some point, yes.
我们采用高触达的客户服务模式,并构建了横向连接网络。
We have a high touch model for clients and across this whole horizontal connectivity.
因此财富策略团队需要与各地私人顾问紧密合作,团队成员必须陪同顾问实地拜访全国各地的客户。
So our wealth strategies team works closely with our private advisers on many clients, but that team needs to be out visiting those clients with the advisers across the country.
如果企业持续无限扩张,员工规模达到数万人,客户数量以百万计,我们现有的战略将很难有效实施。
If you just keep growing indefinitely and and you're talking tens of thousands of employees and millions of clients, it's very hard to utilize the strategy that we have in place.
因此创业初期,我们就讨论过要在这些财富中心及城市进行布局。
So when we started, we talked about building out in in these wealth centers and and cities.
我们刚刚制定了一个新的目标,在此首次向大家公布。
We just put in place a a new target, fresh for you here.
自2018年3月1日收购Rock and Co并创立洛克菲勒资本管理公司以来,我们的管理资产从180亿美元起步。
We we grew from 18,000,000,000 in assets in 03/01/2018 when we bought Rock and Co and created Rockefeller Capital Management.
经过六年半的发展,目前资产规模已突破1400亿美元,我们相信到2030年有望超过4000亿美元。
We've grown to north of 140,000,000,000 today in six and a half years, and we believe we can be over 400,000,000,000 in assets by 2030.
这一目标将延续创业至今的成功模式:在各财富中心围绕私人顾问建立规模效应,通过顾问向客户高效提供全方位服务,实现有机增长。
That's with the same formula that we've had in place since we started, which is building scale in each of these wealth centers around the private adviser and then growing organically with this comprehensive suite of capabilities delivered efficiently through the adviser to the client.
这增速确实惊人。
That's huge growth.
期间完成了多少并购?
How many acquisitions is that?
我们已在各财富中心引进了约140支团队。
We've brought in approximately a 140 teams across those different wealth centers.
团队入驻后就会产生内生增长。
That growth is also organic once the team is here.
有些团队加入五六年以来,管理的客户资产已增长至最初的三倍——比如我们最早引进的那批团队。
So we have some teams that have tripled their client assets since we brought them on five or six years ago when we brought our first teams on.
实现了三倍增幅。
Tripled their client assets.
这就是内生性增长。
So that's organic growth.
还有大量团队实现了客户资产翻倍。
We have a whole bunch of teams that have doubled their client assets.
因此这种对增长的关注,并非单纯为了增长而增长。
So this focus on growth and, it's not growth just for growth's sake.
这种增长能让客户获益最多,因为我们出色地完成了工作,使客户更信任我们或推荐新客户给我们。
It's growth where the client benefits the most because we're doing a great job for the client who trusts us with more or they recommend us to a new client.
他们会告诉镇上的另一个家族,洛克菲勒家,说那些人真的很棒。
They say to another family in town, Rockefeller, those people are really good.
他们人也很好。
They're also nice.
你应该雇佣他们。
You should hire them.
很多增长是非有机的,就像我们说的,来自团队带着业务资源加入,然后在此基础上实现有机增长。
The a lot of that growth is inorganic, as we say, from bringing the teams over with the book of business they bring, but then organic on top of that.
所以我想我对历史很感兴趣。
So I guess I'm I'm interested in the history.
自从你在摩根士丹利工作以来,你对人员配置模式的思考是如何演变的?
How's your thinking about staffing models evolved since your time at Morgan Stanley?
摩根士丹利采用的是另一种模式,美林和其他大公司也是如此。
Morgan Stanley is a it's a different model as as is Merrill Lynch, any of the big firms.
这是一种规模化模式。
It's a scaled model.
他们服务于数百万客户,覆盖广泛的财富等级,而我们只专注于高净值和超高净值人群。
They're serving millions of clients across a very broad number of different client wealth categories, whereas we're high net worth and ultra high net worth only.
大公司都有服务于这个领域的顾问。
The big firms all have advisers that work in that space.
这只是整体业务中较小的一部分。
That's just a smaller part of the overall business.
所以我们的策略就是专注于服务这类客户。
So our strategy is to stay right with this set of clients.
我们对拓展不同客户群体不感兴趣,也不打算提供我在私人顾问背后向您描述的全面服务。
We're not interested in broadening to different client segments and to deliver the comprehensive services that I've described to you in behind the private adviser.
这在规模化运营中很难实现,因为许多顾问并不服务于高净值或超高净值客户。
That's hard to build in a scaled operation because there are many advisers that aren't working with high net worth or ultra high net worth clients.
你必须确保为这些客户打造的能力不会被他们所用。
You have to make sure that the capabilities that you build for those clients aren't utilized by them.
这是完全不同的模式。
It's a different model.
我们的模式因其专注性,能确保我们构建的所有内容都旨在支持这些顾问服务高净值和超高净值客户。
Our model, because its focus, enables us to ensure that everything that we built here is to support these advisers in serving high net worth and ultra high net worth clients.
当只聚焦单一客户类型时,模式会清晰得多,不像大型机构需要面对分布各地的各类客户。
It's a lot cleaner when it's just the singular client focus as opposed to big scale firms that have many different kinds of clients in many different places.
您对财富管理中另类投资配置比例上升的趋势有何看法?
Do you have any thoughts on the idea of rising allocations to alts in wealth management?
这是可持续的长期趋势吗?
Is this a sustainable long term trend?
针对我们服务的客户群体?
For the clients that we work with?
毫无疑问。
Absolutely.
事实上,我们认为在洛克菲勒资本管理公司,客户会将财富中越来越高的比例配置于私募投资——包括各类独家直投和仅限洛克菲勒客户的另类投资。
And in fact, we think there will be here at Rockefeller Capital Management, our clients will have a higher and higher percentage of allocation of their wealth to private investments, alternatives of of all different kinds, including direct investments and alternative investments that are exclusive to Rockefeller.
我们与众多另类投资供应商洽谈,专门寻找符合客户需求且具有排他性的投资机会。
We talk to a lot of alternative providers, and we're looking for investments that fit our clients' needs that are exclusive to us and our clients.
我们设立了由克里斯·柯克领导的投资产品解决方案组,他是我司刚从威灵顿聘请的合伙人。
So we have a investment product and solutions group led by Chris Kirk, who's somebody I we recently hired from Wellington.
他在威灵顿担任合伙人已有二十年之久。
He spent the last twenty years at Wellington as a partner there.
九十年代末期,他曾在美林银行的金融机构组与我共事。
He worked with me in the financial institutions group at Merrill in the late nineties.
他想举家搬到波士顿,我们一直保持着联系。
He wanted to move to Boston with his family, and we kept in touch.
我刚把他请回来,现在他负责为我们推进这项工作。
And I just brought him back, and he's now running that effort for us.
这是项非常重要的工作,因为我们不仅要持续开发新客户,现有客户也将在开放式架构背景下继续开展另类投资。
That's a very important effort because not only are we going to continue to bring on new clients, but many of our clients will continue to do alternative investments in an open architecture context.
因此我们将选用最优秀的合作机构,他们能提供最优质的产品,通常是我们客户在各类另类投资领域的独家资源。
So we'll be using the best firms we can find, who bring the best product, often exclusive to our clients across the spectrum of alternative categories.
什么
What's
ESG领域目前发展如何?
the state of play in the ESG space?
ESG嘛...我的孩子及其朋友都属于千禧一代和Z世代。
ESG I I have millennials and generation z as my children are and their friends are.
我们相信ESG投资将成为特定投资者群体——尤其是年轻投资者——的长期需求。
We believe that ESG investing is here to stay for a subset of investors, in particular, the younger investors.
我认为在他们整个生命周期中,不会随着年龄增长和阅历丰富就放弃这种理念。
And I don't think over the course of my life, I don't think that they get older and they're seasoned and they age out of that.
或许我们这代人——至少我这个婴儿潮世代——年轻时相信的某些观念,随着年龄增长就逐渐淡忘了。
There might have been some things that our generation, at least mine, Joe, the baby boomers, that they might have thought when they were younger, and then they got older and it went away.
但观察千禧一代和Z世代,我认为ESG理念不会消退。
I don't think this is going away when I look at millennials and generation z.
所以我们希望在该领域建立强大的服务能力——事实上我们已经做到了。
So we wanna have a robust set of capabilities there, and we do.
也有些投资者对此兴趣不大,更关注其他领域。我们的职责是根据客户需求,以他们期望的方式管理资产并提供财富建议。
There are investors who are less interested in that and more interested in something else, and our job is to manage money in a way advise clients on their wealth in a way that they're looking for the advice.
多年来,你为许多华尔街巨头管理资金并与他们密切合作。
You've managed money for many Wall Street titans over the years and worked with them closely.
你认为这些知名投资者中有很多人也会亲自管理个人财务吗?
Do you think a lot of these notable investors manage their own personal finance as well?
我认为很少有杰出的高管和创始人会亲自管理自己的资金和财富,因为他们把大部分时间都投入到所领导或创立的企业建设中。
I think very few noteworthy executives and founders manage their own money and their own wealth because they put so much of their time into building the business that they lead or have founded.
这正是我们为众多CEO、创始人和企业家提供专业建议的原因之一——他们全身心投入事业,兼顾个人生活,自然在投资上花费的时间较少。
And that's one of the reasons that we provide the advice we do to so many different CEOs and founders and entrepreneurs because they're a 100% in on the business, and then they've got their personal life, and they spend less time on their investments.
随着他们年龄增长,如何分散资产、利用赠与及税务规则等问题,我们会花大量时间与他们探讨这些。
And as they start to get older, how to diversify and how to take advantage of gifting and tax rules and things like that, we spend a lot of time with them on that.
我常说,我们设立精品投行洛克菲勒全球投资银行的原因之一,就是要为通过经营企业积累财富的美国家族提供咨询服务——他们中许多人至今仍持有企业。
I like to say one of the reasons why, we have a boutique investment bank, Rockefeller Global Investment Banking, is because we wanna be able to provide advice and counsel to the many American families that make their wealth through owning a business, and many of them still own the business.
因此我们希望能在企业经营方面给予建议。
So we wanna be able to give them advice on the business.
是否应该出售?
Should they sell?
是否应该上市?
Should they go public?
是否应该收购其他企业?
Should they buy somebody?
是否应该维持现状?
Should they keep doing what they're doing?
无论他们寻求什么,我们都希望提供最佳建议。
Whatever they're looking for, we wanna provide the best advice.
这些家族在持续经营企业的同时,也需要投资、税务和规划方面的专业指导。
And they're going to continue to run that business, and those families need investment and tax and planning advice as well.
真正在创造事业的人往往专注于他们的创造,那才是他们宇宙的中心。
People who are really creating something in life tend to focus on that creation, and that's really the center of their universe.
这真是太有趣了,我忘了问我的背景问题。
This has been so fascinating, and I forgot to ask my background questions.
你最初是什么时候对金融产生兴趣的?
When did you first develop an interest in finance?
让我从头给你讲讲。
I'll go a little bit farther back for you.
我的家庭非常重视教育。
My family really emphasized education.
我会回答你的问题的。
I'm gonna get to your question.
我的祖父,也就是我父亲的父亲,我从未见过他,他也不认识我——他在我父亲两岁时就去世了。他只读到二年级,后来在缅因州一个小镇工作,生活条件并不轻松。
My father's father, my grandfather, who I didn't know and he didn't know, he died when my father was two, graduated from the second grade and went to work in Maine in a small town, not not easy circumstances.
所以我父亲是他们家族第一个上大学的人。
So my father was the first one to go to college in his family.
我的父母都是教师,所以他们很重视教育。
My parents were both teachers, so they emphasized education.
大学时我在科尔盖特读本科,在那里遇到了我的妻子。
In college, I was an undergraduate at Colgate where I met my wife.
我喜欢解决问题,喜欢处理复杂情况,也喜欢经济学,包括宏观经济学。
I enjoyed problem solving, and I enjoyed complexity, and I enjoyed economics, including macro.
这让我在法学院毕业后进入了管理咨询行业。
And that led me to management consulting after law school.
我是在耶鲁读的法学院。
I was at law school at Yale.
然后
And
但你并不想当律师。
But you didn't wanna become a lawyer.
这是因为我喜欢管理咨询这个概念,当我发现它的时候。
That's because I like this whole notion when I found out about management consulting.
这就是为什么我一直追溯到大学时期。
That's why I was taking it all the way back and back to college.
当我了解管理咨询时,我觉得我会非常享受这份工作,事实确实如此,因为它就是解决问题。
And when I found out about management consulting, thought I I would really enjoy that, and I did because it is problem solving.
客户来了说,请就这个问题给我们建议。
The client comes in and they say, give us advice on this problem.
我热爱这一点。
And I love that.
在不同行业间实践很有趣,正如我所说,还包括不同地域。
And it was fun to do it across different industries, and as I said, different geographies.
这让我思考,我想继续从事解决复杂问题的工作。
So that led me to think, I wanna stay with problem solving and and complexity.
但我确实对提供建议感到沮丧,最终报告被高管束之高阁,他们说非常感谢博思艾伦,但我要走不同方向。
But I got I did get frustrated with giving the advice and having it be a book that the executive put on the shelf and said, thank you very much, Booz Allen and Hamilton, but I'm gonna go in a different direction.
所以在四年半后,我想进入管理层。
So after four and a half years of that, I wanted to get into the management side.
我接到了美林证券猎头的电话。
I got a call from a head enter on Merrill Lynch.
我去了,因为这是个进入管理运营侧的机会,而且这是家伟大的美国公司。
I went because it was an opportunity to be on the management operating side, and it was a great American company.
不是因为它是金融行业。
It wasn't because it was finance.
也可能是科技行业。
It could have been technology.
我在博思艾伦与各种类型的公司合作过。
And I've worked with a lot of different kinds of companies at Booz Allen and Hamilton.
其实我并不是主动选择金融行业的。
So I didn't really pick finance.
我只是喜欢解决问题。
I liked problem solving.
我热爱复杂的事物。
I liked complexity.
我确实喜欢宏观经济学,至今依然如此。
I did like macroeconomics, and I still do today.
我和我们的国际业务主席罗希尔·夏尔马共事非常愉快。
And I have a lot of fun with we have Roshir Sharma, who's our chairman of international.
我们与首席投资官吉米·常一起共度时光。
We spent it in Jimmy Chang, our CIOs.
花了大量时间研究不同地区的宏观经济形势对比。
Tremendous amount of time on macro and what's happening here versus there.
但我选择美林证券是因为可以在管理层担任领导职位,这是一家伟大的美国公司,而非因为它是金融企业。
But I went to Merrill because I would be able to operate and be in the leadership on the management side, and it was a great American company, not because it was finance.
后来我在那里发展顺利,事业自然就展开了。
And then I things went well there, and it took on a life of its own.
但乔,这完全可能是另一个故事。
But it easily, Joe, could have been a different story.
我经常这样告诉年轻人——首先总体而言,现在的年轻人实在太优秀了。
I tell that to young people today because young people first of all, on on balance, you so many impressive young people today.
每当听到有人抱怨千禧一代或Z世代时,我就感到沮丧,因为他们明明非常出色。
I get frustrated when I hear people complain about generation the millennials or generation z, because I think they're so impressive.
他们正以积极的方式改变世界,并且全力以赴。
They're trying to change the world in a positive way, and they're all in.
有时看到大学生简历上的经历,甚至比我年轻时朋友们的经历还要丰富,这让我感到惊叹。
And I'm amazed sometimes at the things I see on resumes of college students relative to even my friends and I growing up.
我曾是个送报童。
I was the paper boy.
我洗过盘子。
I washed dishes.
我在杂货店工作过。
I was working at a grocery store.
有些人声称自己大学一年级后就能给哈佛教授提建议。
You have people saying they're providing advice to some professor at Harvard after freshman year of college.
年轻人做的许多事情都令人印象深刻。
There's lots of things that young people do that are so impressive.
但他们总是以非常严肃的态度前来,然后我会问:接下来会发生什么?
But they'll so they'll come in a very serious way, and and they'll I'll say, so what happens next?
他们会告诉我:我要做这个,做那个,做这个,还有那个。
And they'll tell me, I'm gonna do this, and I'm gonna do this, and I'm this, and I'm gonna do this.
我对他们说:虽然不确定这条路上会发生什么,但我有件事可以确信地告诉你。
And I say to them, I'm not sure what's gonna happen along that path, but I have one thing to tell you I'm confident of.
事情绝不会像那样发展。
It's not gonna be like that.
因为我毕业于耶鲁法学院,却去做了管理咨询。
Because I was at Yale Law School, and I went to be a management consultant.
在1988年,这是个奇怪的转变。
In 1988, that was an odd shift.
那年头很少有人这么做。
Very few people were doing that in 1988.
当我出现在博思艾伦公司时,他们都很惊讶:这儿来了个律师?
When I showed up at Booz Allen and Hamilton, they were like, there's a lawyer here?
当时这些公司里没几个律师。
There weren't a lot of lawyers at any of those firms.
总有人因为我是律师就质疑我是否会数学,这让我很沮丧,因为我数学一直很好。
I've I had people wondering if I could do math because I was a lawyer, which I found frustrating because I was always good in math.
但那是个不寻常的转折点。
But that was an unusual pivot.
后来我去了美林,不是因为它是金融公司,而是因为那是个管理的机会,让我开始参与运营。
And then I went to Merrill, not because it was a finance company, but because it was an opportunity to manage and to start being part of that, operate.
所以人生中有各种无法预见的转折点,我经常给年轻人这样的建议。
So there's all sorts of pivots in life that nobody sees ex ante, and I provide that advice to to young people all the time.
你从没想过自己最终会在耶鲁教书吧?
You never thought you were gonna end up teaching at Yale, did you?
确实没有。
I didn't.
关于这个我有个故事,不管你是否要把它放进播客里。
I have a story on on on that for you, whether you wanna include it in the podcast or not.
那是在2008年我们刚把美林卖给美国银行后,我去参加第二十届同学会。
But I was there for my twentieth reunion in 2008 after we had sold Merrill to BofA.
我们当时已经宣布了这笔交易。
We'd announced the deal.
所以在2008年10月,哈罗德·高担任耶鲁法学院院长。
So in October 2008, by '23, and Harold Koh was the dean of Yale Law School.
他曾是希拉里·克林顿担任国务卿时的首席律师。
He was the top lawyer for Hillary Clinton when she was secretary of state.
哈罗德是个了不起的人,聪明绝顶又极具人格魅力。
Harold's a tremendous man, so bright and such a terrific human being.
他对我说——如果你把这段放进去,哈罗德听到的话会很有趣——看他是否记得是这么回事。
And he said to me and if you include this and Harold listens, it'll be funny if he remembers it this way.
他对我说这话时,我妻子应该也在场。
He said to me I think my wife was with me.
他对我说,你看起来糟透了。
He said to me, you look terrible.
你经历了很多。
You've been through a lot.
如果你想休息一下,来这里教书、写作、喘口气,你可以这么做。
If you wanna take a break and come up here and teach, write, and just catch your breath, you can do that.
我对他说,我很感激。
And I said to him, I appreciate that.
但我谈判完成了美林卖给美国银行的交易。
But I negotiated the sale of Merrill to Bank of America.
我承诺过。
I'm committed.
然后在接下来的六周里,我逐渐意识到,未来继续运营的公司将与我待了十七年的那家截然不同。
And then over the next six weeks, I slowly realized that the firm that was going to go forward would be very different than the firm that I had spent seventeen years in.
这是两种截然不同的文化。
Those are two very different cultures.
你当时是怎么想的?现在回想起来结果如何?
What did you think about that at the time, and how do you think it's played out now?
已经过去很久了。
It's been a long time.
这是两种截然不同的文化。
They're two very different cultures.
你提到的那个周末,我除了生存和让美国银行拯救美林之外什么都没想。
The weekend that you started me with here, I didn't think about anything but survival and having Bank of America rescue Merrill Lynch.
我只希望那能实现,因为我不想美林成为雷曼兄弟。
I just wanted that to happen because I didn't want Merrill Lynch to be Lehman Brothers.
事后,当你终于能松口气时,我清楚地意识到这是两种截然不同的文化。
After the fact, after you could start to exhale, it was clear to me there were two very different cultures.
但当哈罗德第一次对我说这话时,我以为自己会全身心投入。
But when Harold first said this to me, I thought I was all in.
我确实全心投入了,但我原以为会长期坚持下去。
I was all in, but I thought I'd be there for a long time.
但随着真相一层层揭开,我发现这并不适合我。
But it wasn't it wasn't for me as I as the onion started getting pulled back.
那你当时教什么课程?
So what did you teach?
2009年我第一次授课,幸运或不幸的是,这堂课没被录下来。
The first in in o '9, I taught a class, and fortunately fortunately or unfortunately, we didn't tape this.
我开设了一门课程。
I started a class.
我在危机期间负责一个班级。
I had a class in the crisis.
所以我邀请了拉里·芬克来授课。
So I had Larry Fink come up.
艾伦·施瓦茨来讲了熊市的故事。
Alan Schwartz came up and told the bear story.
还有身陷漩涡中心的拉吉·科恩。
Raj Cohen, who was in the middle of it all.
詹姆斯·戈尔曼也来了。
James Gorman came up.
其实很有趣的是,詹姆斯来时我刚离开美林。
And, actually, it's interesting because when James came up, I had just left Merrill.
他当时是摩根士丹利的联席总裁,但还没被任命为下任CEO。
He was co president of Morgan Stanley, but had not been named the next CEO.
后来我们带着妻子在纽黑文的耶鲁法学院共进了晚餐。
And we had dinner with our wives at in New Haven, Yale Law School.
其实不是,我不认为那是莫里家的。
Not actually, I don't think it was Maury's.
可能我现在常去的是Bar Pizza,那家店超棒。
It might have been the place I go to now is Bar Pizza, which is terrific.
哦,没错。
Oh, yeah.
但不管怎样,我们稍微聊了聊摩根士丹利将要发生的事。
But, anyway, we talked a little bit about what was gonna happen at Morgan Stanley.
他会拿到最高职位吗?
Was he gonna get the top knot?
我们保持密切联系,八个月后他果然被任命为CEO,两天后他就打电话叫我过去。
And we stayed in close touch, and literally eight months later, he's named CEO, and he calls me two days later and says, come here.
所以这件事的起因是我们本就相熟,但那次晚餐是关键。
So the genesis of that was in that we knew each other well, but that dinner.
但他们都站出来,从各自视角讲述信贷危机,这非常吸引人,因为这些都是亲历者,学生们都听入迷了。
But they all came up and they talked about the credit crisis from their perspective, and it was fascinating because these were all the people who had a front row seat, and the students were captivated.
这就是我第一学期做的事。
So that was what I did that first semester.
我们全程采用非公开形式,这对邀请嘉宾至关重要,毕竟当时涉及诉讼和监管机构。
And we did it all off the record, which was essential to have people because there was litigation, there were regulators.
我记得有耶鲁校刊的人混进其中一场试图报道,我们费了很大劲才撤稿,因为这些人都在坦诚分享。
And I remember from one of the Yale publications, somebody snuck into one of them and tried to write about it, and we had to work hard to get that pulled because these people were all speaking about it.
这个话题直到2009年都是热议焦点。
It was quite a big topic of conversation well into 2009.
奥巴马总统也谈到过,但这确实是我最初教授的内容。
President Obama talked about it, but that's what I taught at first.
后来随着时间推移,我也开始教授金融市场相关课程。
And then over time, I've taught classes in financial markets.
我们教授过伦理学课程。
We've taught classes in in ethics.
我经常与耶鲁法学院的一位杰出教授约翰·梅西合作授课,他在公司法领域堪称传奇人物。
I teach often with a great professor up there I give a shout out to named John Macy, who's a legend in in corporate law at Yale Law School.
如今我们经常一起共事。
He and I do a lot together now.
我很自豪地说,我的长女今年秋天将成为那里的三年级法学院学生。
And I will proudly say that my oldest daughter is gonna be a third year law student there this fall.
哦,恭喜你。
Well, congratulations.
是啊。
Yeah.
我们继续
We continue to
格雷格,可曾对学术生涯动过心?
ever felt tempted by the academic life, Greg?
乔,我...我考虑过很多可能性。
Joe, my I I thought about a lot of things.
但当我离开摩根士丹利时,我不想再第三次加入其他大机构。
But when I left Morgan Stanley, I did not wanna third run at another big firm.
我已经在两家顶级机构工作过。
I had done two great firms.
我希望能有机会领导某项事业,更想以创业的方式实现。
I wanted to have the opportunity to lead something, and I wanted to do it on a more entrepreneurial basis.
所以我决心尝试这样的道路。
So I was determined to do something like this and try this.
如果发展不如现在顺利,我可能会考虑更全面地投身学术界。
Had it not worked as well as it has, I could have thought about a broader career in academia.
这其中有很多我喜欢的方面,而且学生们都非常出色。
There's a lot about that I like, and the students are fantastic.
耶鲁法学院的学生简直不可思议。
Yale Law School has just incredible students.
我本可以选择那条路,但我真心希望能汲取我职业生涯和人生中的经验教训,因为这里的文化与我想象中优秀律所的运作方式紧密相连。
I I could have gone that way, but I really wanted to try to take lessons of my life and my career, both career and life, because the culture here is somewhat tied to the way that I I wanna see a great firm operate.
这种追求卓越的理念,同时强调协作、同事情谊,我希望人们能充满活力。
This notion of excellence, but collaboration, collegiality, and I want people to be energized.
我信奉积极的领导方式。
I believe in positive leadership.
我认为人类天生就在追寻这种领导力。
I think human beings look for it.
因此我想先运用职业生涯和人生的经验,尝试打造这样的平台,再考虑其他事情。
So I wanted to take lessons of career and life and apply it and try to create something like this before I thought about anything else.
后来我们听说可以拿到'洛克菲勒'这个响当当的名字,就这样决定了。
And then we heard we could get this incredible name, Rockefeller, and and that was it.
这就是我锁定的目标。
That was my I zeroed in on that.
有趣的是,我们收购的家族办公室Rockefeller Rock & Co,其顾问竟是我在高盛竞争多年的投资银行家Don Truesdale。
And what's interesting, Rockefeller Rock and Co, the family office that we bought, ended up being advised by an investment banker I competed with for years at Goldman named Don Truesdale.
他当时代表他们,而Truesdale和我在高盛美林竞争了二十年。
He was representing them, And Truesdale and I had twenty years of competing in Goldman Merrill.
所以说世界真小,但这确实是我想要做的事。
So it's a small world, but that's really what I wanted to to do.
如今我们已站稳脚跟,拥有一个势头强劲的优秀律所。
And now that we're where we are, we've got a great firm with tremendous momentum.
我正全力推动律所发展到新阶段——无论是股权结构、规模还是专业能力——直到某天像所有人一样交棒,让事业在我之后持续传承。
I'm very focused on having it get to a stage both in terms of ownership and scale and capabilities where at some point, I, like everybody, moves on, and it goes on and on after me.
因为美林证券未能实现这一目标,这将是我永远的遗憾。
Because the fact that didn't happen for Merrill Lynch will be a regret I always have.
我们正在这里构建伟大而特别的事业,我希望未来的员工和客户能享受并在这个环境中茁壮成长。
We're building something great and special here, and I want generations of people and clients after me to be able to enjoy this and to thrive within this environment.
格雷格·弗莱明,感谢您今天加入我们并分享您精彩的见解。
Greg Fleming, thank you for joining us and sharing your wonderful insights with us today.
谢谢,乔。
Thanks, Joe.
非常感谢。
Appreciate it.
我聊得很愉快。
I've enjoyed it.
感谢收听。
Thanks for listening.
如果您喜欢这期播客,请在苹果播客上留下评论或分享给您的朋友。
If you enjoyed the podcast, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts or share it with your friends.
谢谢。
Thank you.
关于 Bayt 播客
Bayt 提供中文+原文双语音频和字幕,帮助你打破语言障碍,轻松听懂全球优质播客。