伊朗袭击前押注5亿美元

继续沿现有路线行驶。

Continue on your existing route.

前方有办公室政治。

Office politics ahead.

正在重新规划路线。

Rerouting.

报告危险：正在进行裁员，正在重新规划路线。

Hazard reported: Downsizing in progress, rerouting.

晋升被拒。

Promotion denied.

立即掉头。

Make an immediate U-turn.

前方是死胡同。

Dead end ahead.

考虑其他路线。

Consider alternate route.

要是有个导航系统能帮你规划职业生涯就好了。

If only there was a GPS system to help you navigate your career.

幸运的是，有了 strawberry.me，你会被匹配到一位职业教练，他们将帮助你找到最适合你的职业道路，无论是帮你摆脱当前工作的困境，还是助你获得一份新的、令人满意的职位。

Fortunately, there's strawberry.me where you'll be matched with a career coach who will help you find the best career route for you, either by helping you get unstuck at your current job or by helping you land a new, rewarding one.

如果你的职业生涯陷入了死胡同，strawberry.me 能帮你重新启动。

If your career has hit a dead end, strawberry.me can get you moving again.

前往 strawberry.me/unstuck，享受首节辅导课五折优惠。

Go to strawberry.me/unstuck and get 50% off your first coaching session.

那就是 strawberry.me/unstuck。

That's strawberry.me/unstuck.

现在是了解职业辅导是否适合你的最划算时机。

Now is the most affordable time ever to find out if career coaching is right for you.

当你想到注意力缺陷多动障碍（ADHD）的人时，你会想到谁？

When you think of someone with ADHD, who comes to mind?

是一位三十多岁的女性吗？

Is it a woman in her thirties?

就是那种总觉得自己太过分了的感觉，你知道的，太活跃、太吵闹，什么都太过了。

Just this constant feeling of being too much, you know, too kinetic, too loud, all of

所有

the

太怎么样都不对，真的觉得别人手里都有一本社交准则手册，而我却从来没拿到过。

too anything, and just really feeling like people got some kind of social rule book that I never got.

ADHD的面貌正在改变。

The changing face of ADHD.

本周《解释给我听》就是这样。

That's this week on Explain It Me.

新节目每周日上线，各大播客平台均可收听。

New episodes, Sundays, wherever you get your podcasts.

本周《净资产与闲聊》中，我带你们走进我在纽约市售罄的新书《天赋异禀》签售会现场。

This week on Net Worth and Chill, I'm taking you inside my sold out New York City book tour stop for my brand new book, Well Endowed.

我与幽默风趣的希瑟·麦马洪共度了一个充满欢笑、真实谈钱和坦诚财务真相的夜晚。

I sat down with the hilarious Heather McMahon for a night of laughs, real money talk, and honest financial truths.

我们将深入探讨这本书涵盖的所有内容，包括如何真正积累财富、如何保护财富，以及如何不再让钱白白溜走。

We're getting into everything the book covers from how to actually build wealth, how to protect it, and how to stop leaving money on the table.

无论你是否已经买了《Well Endowed》这本书，还是还在犹豫，这一期都会让你明白为什么大家都在谈论它。

Whether you've already grabbed your copy of Well Endowed or you're still on the fence, this episode will show you exactly why everyone's talking about it.

请在你常用的播客平台收听，或在 youtube.com/yourrich BFF 观看视频。

Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch on youtube.com/yourrich BFF.

今天的数字是50。

Today's number, 50.

这是有50%的Z世代表示，饮料是他们个性的一部分。

That is the percentage of Gen Zs who say that beverages are part of their personality.

换句话说，我们现在终于知道年轻人不发生性关系的真正原因了。

In other words, we now know the real reason young people aren't having sex.

我真的很抱歉。

I'm so sorry.

货币市场疯了。

Money market's mad.

如果钱是邪恶的，那么那栋大楼就是地狱。

If money is evil, then that building is hell.

节目继续。

The show goes on.

价格没人关注。

The price are not watching.

展示销售。

Show sell.

欢迎来到Prof G市场。

Welcome to Prof G Markets.

我是埃德·埃尔森。

I'm Ed Elson.

今天是3月5日。

It is March 5.

让我们回顾一下昨天的市场动态。

Let's check-in on yesterday's market vitals.

主要指数上涨，因为投资者的关注点转向了国内。

The major indices climbed as investor attention shifted stateside.

一份报告显示，二月份服务业增长强劲。

A report showed robust services sector growth for February.

ADP私营部门就业数据好于预期，科技股的上涨为纳斯达克提供了额外推动力。

ADP private jobs data came in better than expected, and a tech rally gave the Nasdaq an extra boost.

与此同时，十年期国债收益率保持高位，油价当日持平。

Meanwhile, the ten year remained elevated and oil prices were flat on the day.

好的。

Okay.

还有哪些其他动态？

What else is happening?

在价值十亿美元的交易与美国对伊朗发动袭击相关的消息曝光后，预测市场受到了严密审查。

Prediction markets are under intense scrutiny after half $1,000,000,000 in trades tied to The US strikes on Iran came to light.

彭博社报道称，仅在Polymarket平台上，关于袭击时间的交易额就达到了5.29亿美元。

Bloomberg reported $529,000,000 was traded on Polymarket alone on the timing of the strikes.

有一个账户在首次交易中赚取了超过五亿美元，而这笔交易是在新闻公开发布前仅一小时下的。

One account made more than half $1,000,000 with the first trade placed just an hour before the news broke publicly.

与此同时，Polymarket的竞争对手在关于哈梅内伊是否会下台的议题上，交易量接近5500万美元。

Meanwhile, Polymarket's competitor saw nearly $55,000,000 in trade volume on whether Ayatollah Khamenei would be ousted.

然而，在他被杀后不久，该平台就暂停了这些市场，并表示不允许与直接致人死亡相关的赌盘。

However, it halted those markets shortly after he was killed, saying that it doesn't allow markets tied directly to death.

现在，民主党参议员克里斯·墨菲表示，他将尽快提出立法，阻止与特朗普有关联的人从这些战争中获利。

Now Democratic senator Chris Murphy says he will introduce legislation, quote, ASAP to stop people with ties to Trump from profiting off of these wars.

为了帮助我们分析预测市场接下来的发展，我们邀请到了男孩与男人研究所的政策负责人、《美国对体育博彩的鲁莽押注》一书的作者乔纳森·科恩。

Here to help us break down what comes next in prediction markets, we're speaking with Jonathan Cohen, policy leader at the Institute for Boys and Men and author of America's Reckless Bet on Sports Gambling.

乔纳森，很高兴见到你。

Jonathan, good to see you.

我知道你通常谈论的是体育博彩，而且你写过一本关于这个主题的书，对我们许多人来说都极具启发性。

I know you usually talk about sports betting, and you've written a book about it, which has been massively informative to many of us.

现在我们进入了下一阶段，人们开始对战争乃至可能的死亡进行下注和赌博。

Now we're on to the next phase here where people are betting and gambling on war and potentially death.

这正在制造所有这些问题和分歧。

And it's creating all of these issues and all of these rifts.

卡利说：不行。

Calci is saying, no.

我们不允许你押注某人生死。

We don't let you bet on people dying or not dying.

这是另一个话题了。

That's its own conversation.

让我们先谈谈你对当前情况的初步反应，以及在你看来，这对未来市场意味着什么。

Let's just start with your initial reactions to the fact that we're here and and what this means in your view of the markets going forward.

我不明白问题出在哪里。

I don't know what the problem is.

我只是想赚点小钱。

I'm just trying to make a little bit of money.

埃德，你知道我家里有孩子。

Ed, you know I got kids at home.

你知道，显而易见，我会开始利用我所有关于霍梅尼去世的内部信息来赌博。

You know, obviously, I'm gonna start to try to gamble with all my insider information on the death of Ayatollah Khomeini.

我不明白这到底有什么问题。

I don't know what what the problem could be.

我的意思是，真的，这反映出当最高法院在2018年将体育博彩合法化时，我们肯定没有预料到如今这种局面——也就是一切都被博彩化了。

I mean, really, this speaks to I mean, when when the Supreme Court legalized sports gambling in 2018, right, surely we did not anticipate what we now have, right, which is the basically, the gamblification of everything.

而这正是Kalshi一直承诺并以其市场为基础的东西：你可以利用对泰勒·斯威夫特、油价、气温、体育赛事的了解来赚钱。

And this is sort of what CalGI has been promising and what they their market is based on is you can leverage your knowledge of Taylor Swift, of gas prices, of the temperature, of sports to making money.

而这种逻辑的极端就是，当发生战争时，人们会想要对战争下注，尽管这听起来多么病态、扭曲、奇怪，甚至违背民主精神。

And the logical extreme of this is when there are wars, people are going to want to gamble on wars as sick and twisted and weird and sort of undemocratic as as that might feel.

那么，我们在这里该划出哪条界限呢？

So where do we draw the line here?

因为，我的意思是，Kalshi声称他们不这么做，但说实话，Kalshi本身很难划定界限。

Because, I mean, Kalshi is saying that they're not I mean, it's hard for Kalshi to draw lines in the first place.

事实上，我们曾与Kalshi的首席执行官交谈过，试图就这个问题展开讨论。

And in fact, we spoke with the CEO of Kalshi, we tried to have a conversation about this.

这确实是个很难判断的事情，但看起来他们在死亡事件上划了一条线。

And it would you know, it is a difficult thing to to figure out, but they have drawn a line at death, it seems.

为什么这一定是那条线呢？

Why is that necessarily the line?

是因为这违法了，还是因为他们只是不想碰这个领域？

Is it because that is illegal or because that's just an arena they don't wanna touch?

我觉得两者都有。

I think it's a little bit of both.

再提醒一下，Kalshi之所以能存在，是因为它声称自己是一个平台，并且被监管为投资平台，而非赌博平台。

Again, Kalshi, as a reminder, the reason it's able to exist is that it claims to be platform, and it is regulated as an investment platform rather than a gambling platform.

所以他们真的不想做任何可能破坏这种地位或其合法性的事情，也不想损害他们所认为的社会价值——即提升大众智慧来应对各种议题。

So they really don't wanna do anything that might upset that status and their sort of legitimacy, or what they see as sort of the social value they are providing, which is elevating the wisdom of the crowds on issues.

我相信确实存在一些与死亡事件相关的法律限制，也许他们觉得在道德上跨越这一步太过分了，担心影响自己作为守法公民的形象。

So I do believe there are some legal restrictions related specifically to markets on death, and maybe they see it as just a bridge too far sort of morally to kinda keep their good standing as a good citizen.

不管他们是否明确提到，比如霍梅尼是否退出伊朗领导人的位置，但显然‘死亡’并未被纳入其中，这就是为什么这些散户交易者如此不满。

Whether or not they phrased, you know, this all comes down to Khomeini out as Iran leader, and out apparently did not include death, which is why all these retail traders are super upset.

但从根本上说，这归结为很多人没有仔细阅读细则，以为这个允许他们为所欲为的市场，实际上在涉及死亡的问题上是有明确规则的。

But fundamentally, it boils down to a lot of people not reading the fine print and thinking that this market that let them do sort of do whatever they want actually does have some sort of rules specifically when it comes to death, apparently.

你对赌博、投资和交易有什么看法？

What is your view on gambling versus investing versus trading?

这正越来越像关于预测市场的讨论，在我看来，预测市场将成为未来我们谈论市场的一部分。

This is becoming more and more like the conversation when it comes to prediction markets, which in my view are going to become a part of how we talk about markets in the future.

我的意思是，这正逐渐融入我们所做的一切。

I mean, this is becoming integrated into everything we do.

我确实会使用预测市场的数据来理解未来，并用于新闻报道。

I I genuinely use prediction markets data to understand the future and to report on the news.

你如何区分赌博、投资和交易？

How do you draw the distinctions between gambling, investing, and trading?

我的意思是，这条界限一直都很模糊。

I mean, it's always been a thin line.

对吧？

Right?

比如，为什么买大豆期货就是投资？

Like, why is buying a soybean future?

为什么赌费城老鹰队赢就是赌博？

Why is that investing, but betting on the Philadelphia Eagles is is gambling?

在我看来，这归结于你投入资金的产品所带来的额外效用。

To me, it boils down to some secondary utility from the money that you place into the product.

如果我买苹果公司的股票，你知道，苹果的价值就会上升。

So if I buy stock in Apple, you know, the value of Apple goes up.

他们可以生产更多的iPhone。

They can make more iPhones.

他们可以制造更好的手机，等等。

They can make better phones and so on.

但当我购买新英格兰爱国者队赢得超级碗的赛事合约时，首先，我会亏钱。

But when I buy an event contract on the New England Patriots to win the Super Bowl, first of I lose money.

其次，因为我买了他们赢得超级碗的赛事合约，新英格兰爱国者队赢得超级碗的可能性并不会增加。

Second of all, the New England Patriots are not more likely to win the Super Bowl because I have bought an event contract on them.

而且，我看不到任何社会利益，能让全美国或全世界知道一位来自中康涅狄格州的35岁父亲认为新英格兰爱国者队会赢得超级碗。

And there is no I don't see any sort of social benefit for the rest of the country or the rest of the world to know that a 35 year old dad in Central Connecticut thinks that the the New England Patriots are gonna win the Super Bowl.

所以，只有当存在某种真正的社会效用，超越了仅仅是群体智慧——而我认为群体智慧在现实中并没有真正的好处——时，我才会把这种行为称为投资。

So when there's some genuine social utility beyond just wisdom of the crowds, which I do not see as sort of actually beneficial in a in a real way, then I'm willing to call something investing.

但当它仅仅关乎我的娱乐或赚钱的企图时，对我来说，这纯粹就是赌博，而预测市场所做的大部分事情在我看来显然就是赌博。

But when it's just about my entertainment or my attempt to make money, that to me is just gambling pure and simple, and so much of what prediction markets do to me is clearly just gambling.

如果存在某种社会效用，比如说，我们现在谈的是战争。

If there is a social utility to let's say, I mean, we're talking about war here.

有人会认为，如果我们想了解如何规划未来，如何应对可能危及生命的重大事件，那么拥有能为我们提供相关洞察的市场或许是有帮助的。

There is an argument to be made that if we wanna understand how to how to plan for the future, how to plan for potentially life threatening events, then maybe it is helpful to have markets that give us some insight into that.

这是否符合你所说的某种社会效用，从而使其区别于押注体育比赛？

Would that fit your view of some level of social utility that makes it something different from betting on, say, a sports game?

也许吧。

Maybe.

我理解你的立场，但让我给你讲讲可能的最坏情况。

I'm I'm sympathetic, but let me sort of give you the opposite version, maybe the worst case scenario in all this.

假设孟加拉国的反对派领导人进入预测市场，押注大量资金认为孟加拉国总理今年内会被赶下台，这需要什么？

Let's say the opposition leader in Bangladesh or whatever goes into a prediction market and puts a bunch of money on Bangladeshi prime minister out sometime this year, all it takes is what?

只需要15000美元，就能推高市场的波动。

$15,000 to sort of drive up the spike in the market.

每个人都会问：一个孟加拉国人能对孟加拉国总理了解多少？

Everyone's gonna say, What does somebody in Bangladesh know about the Bangladeshi prime minister?

他们能主导一个新闻周期。

They can drive a news cycle.

他们仅凭在Polymarket上押注15000美元，就可能引发一场政治风波，甚至导致孟加拉国总理真的被罢免。

They could drive a political cycle, a potential actual ouster of the Bangladeshi prime minister just with, like, $15,000 on polymarket.

只需要这么多钱。

That's all it takes.

所以，从社会效用的角度来看，我们可能获得的任何好处，都可能恰恰相反——由于可以对结果下注，反而导致更多战争、更多破坏、更多死亡。

So as whatever benefit we get on a social utility standpoint, I could see the and the exact opposite happening and the harm and more wars, more destruction, more death, whatever happening because of the availability to gamble on the outcome.

我还在想另一件事：我们上周末了解到，这些平台非常害怕，或者根本不想涉及与死亡相关的话题。

The other thing I was thinking here is if there I mean, we we we learned over the weekend that that these platforms are very afraid or do not wanna touch death.

他们不愿意涉及人们下注于死亡、谋杀、暗杀等事件。

They don't wanna touch people betting on death and on murder, assassination, etcetera.

当你思考为什么会这样时，正如你所说，我怀疑如果有人下注500美元赌某人会被暗杀，而后来真的有人去实施了暗杀，那么这个投注平台或预测市场是否在某种程度上需要为此人的死亡和暗杀承担责任。

And when you think about, like, why that is, to your point, I wonder if to an extent these platforms would be liable if say someone placed a wager on, you know, his $500 that this guy's going to get assassinated, then someone goes out and actually assassinates them because maybe they actually had money on the line.

在这种情况下，投注平台或预测市场可能在某种程度上对这一死亡和暗杀负有责任。

At which point, perhaps the betting platform or the prediction markets trading platform is in some sense liable and responsible for that death and for that assassination.

你觉得这种情况可能发生吗？

Is that something that you could see playing out?

如果真的发生了，这会成为一个真正的论点吗？

And would that be like an actual argument if that were to occur?

是的。

Yeah.

我不确定是否在法律上负有责任，但在道义上绝对有责任。

I don't know about legally liable, but like responsible, absolutely.

比如我赌威尔·埃德森在未来一周内会被打脸。

Like my my bet on Will Ed Elson get punched in the face within the next week.

你知道吗，突然间，如果我来到纽约打你一拳，我就有了操纵这个市场的能力，然后我能赚一大笔钱。

You know, like all of a sudden I have the ability to manipulate that market if I were to come down to New York and punch you in the face, and then I can make a bunch of money.

我们其实见过类似的情况，尽管听起来很疯狂——当有人在WNBA比赛现场把假阳具扔到球场上时，有一个网站允许你付钱让人去干某些事，比如你付500美元让人去把假阳具扔到WNBA比赛的球场上。

We actually saw a version of this, as crazy as it might seem, with when people were throwing dildos onto the court at WNBA games, and then there was a website where you can, like, I guess, pay people to dare them to do things, and you could pay, like, $500 to someone to throw a dildo onto the court of the WNBA game.

然后你可以购买一个预测市场合约，押注有人会在WNBA比赛中把假阳具扔到球场上。

And then you could buy a prediction market contract predicting that someone would throw a dildo onto the court at the WNBA game.

我怎么说了这么多次这个词？

Why have I said that word so many times?

所以，是的，这种机制极易被操纵，也极易促使人们在现实世界中做他们原本不会做的事，因为他们能从中赚钱。

So, yes, it is rife for for manipulation and rife for getting people to do things in the real world that they might not otherwise have done because they can make money off of it.

最近我还发现了一件很有趣的事，Polymarket曾推出一个市场，让人们交易全球任何地方发生核爆炸的概率。

The other thing that I found fascinating recently, Polymarket was running a market that let people trade on the odds of a nuclear detonation anywhere in the world.

在伊朗发动袭击后，单日交易量飙升至近100万美元的四分之一。

Volume spiked to nearly quarter of $1,000,000 in a single day after the Iran strikes happened.

然后人们开始感到非常不安，因为交易员们将核爆炸的概率定价为24%，而那还是星期二的事。

And then people started getting very nervous because traders were pricing in a 24% chance of a nuclear detonation somewhere, and that was on Tuesday.

然后引发了大量批评。

And then there was a lot of backlash.

Polymarket 决定下架了这个市场，现在它已经不存在了。

Polymarket decided to pull that market, and now it no longer exists.

我想听听你的看法：第一，我们竟然在对核战争和核爆炸下注；第二，交易员们竟然给近期发生核爆的可能性定价为24%。

I just wanna get your reactions to, one, the fact that we are betting on nuclear war and nuclear detonation, and two, the fact that traders priced in a 24% probability that we would see a nuke at some point in the near future.

但愿这是唯一一个没有内部人的市场。

Let's hope that's the one market that had no insiders.

但愿这是唯一一个纯粹出于投机的市场。

That that let's hope that's the one market that was purely speculative.

我的意思是，为了说清楚一点，Polymarket 过去一周惹怒了许多参议员，实际上目前在美国还不能完全使用，它仍在准备重新进入美国市场。

I mean, I think polymarket, just to be really clear, right, which has drawn the ire of many of the senators this past week, is actually not fully yet available in The US, and is sort of primed still to enter reenter The US market.

所以我很好奇，他们对这种公众 backlash 的回应，是否部分是为了保持在美国市场的良好形象——无论是政治上、社会上还是文化上——以便他们能顺利重返市场，最终促成 Calci 和 Polymarket 之间像可口可乐与百事可乐那样的双雄争霸局面，当这家公司真正全面进入美国时。

So I wonder if them responding to this sort of public backlash is in part to sort of remain in the good graces of The US market, both politically and sort of socially and culturally, so that they can sort of reenter the market and so that this can really be the sort of Coke and Pepsi two horse race that everyone is ultimately anticipating between Calci and between Polymarket when when the company does arrive here sort of in full throat.

在我们结束之前，你认为从监管角度来看，这未来的走向会是什么？

Just before we end here, what do you think is gonna be the future of this from a regulatory perspective?

墨菲参议员正在谈论监管这些东西。

Senator Murphy is talking about regulating this stuff.

它在文化讨论中变得越来越流行。

It's becoming more and more popular in the cultural conversation.

鉴于我们近期观察到的袭击事件，这些预测市场的监管前景会如何？

What is the regulatory future of these prediction markets in light of what we've seen following the strikes?

正如大家可能知道的，目前有许多州正在起诉这些平台，尤其是Calci，焦点集中在体育合约问题上。需要明确的是，体育相关事件合约占Calci每日交易量的90%，而任何一天的交易通常并不包括与伊朗的战争。

As folks may know, there are a lot of states that are currently suing these platforms, Calci in particular, specifically over the question of sports contracts, which, just to be really clear, sports related event contracts account for 90% of the trading volume on on Calci on any given day, which do you any given day does not usually include a war with Iran.

所以我认为，最终人们会期待最高法院介入，因为最高法院的设计本就是用来汇总并统一裁决各州的诉讼。

So I think ultimately where folks see this headed is the Supreme Court, right, which is sort of designed to take to aggregate lots of state level lawsuits and sort of deciding them at once.

因此，无论这场诉讼是聚焦于体育合约，还是这些平台是否拥有存在的权利。

So whether that lawsuit is going to specifically focus on sports contracts or sort of the right of these platforms to exist.

我不知道。

I don't know.

但我认为，考虑到当前政府与预测市场之间的关联，以及商品期货交易委员会主席迈克·塞利格的言论——该机构名义上监管预测市场，实则任由其为所欲为——最现实的监管路径，实际上将来自司法系统，而非传统的监管方式。

But I I think that is the most likely, given the administration given the administration's ties to the prediction markets, given the comments from Mike Selig, the head of the Commodities Feature Trading Commission, which is the agency that purportedly oversees prediction markets by letting them do whatever they want, then ultimately, I think the the most realistic regulatory approach will actually just come from the judicial branch rather than through traditional regulation.

好的。

Alright.

乔纳森·科恩，男孩与男性研究所政策负责人，《美国对体育博彩的鲁莽押注》一书作者。

Jonathan Cohen, policy lead at the Institute for Boys and Men, author of America's Reckless Bet on Sports Gambling.

乔纳森，很高兴见到你。

Jonathan, good to see you.

感谢你加入我们。

Thank you for joining us.

谢谢。

Thanks.

我拥有24%的概率预测明年会发生核爆炸。

And proud owner of twenty four percent chance that there's gonna be a nuclear bomb in the next year.

我等不及了。

I can't wait.

广告后，国防科技的新时代。

After the break, the new era of defense tech.

如需获取更多市场洞察，您可以订阅我的每周通讯，地址为 edwardelson.substack.com。

And for even more markets insights, you can subscribe to my weekly newsletter at edwardelson.substack.com.

本节目由领英赞助。

Support for the show comes from LinkedIn.

当最好的B2B营销被浪费在错误的受众身上时，实在令人遗憾。

It's a shame when the best b to b marketing gets wasted on the wrong audience.

比如，想象一下在周六早间的卡通节目中投放白内障手术广告，或者在关于Roblox的视频里推广这个节目——这简直荒谬。

Like, imagine running an ad for cataract surgery on Saturday morning cartoons or running a promo for this show on a video about Roblox or something.

并非针对我们的Gen Alpha听众，但这样做无疑是在浪费任何人的广告预算。

No offense to our Gen Alpha listeners, but that would be a waste of anyone's ad budget.

因此，当您想触达正确的专业人士时，可以使用领英广告。

So when you wanna reach the right professionals, you can use LinkedIn ads.

根据领英的数据，其网络已发展至超过10亿专业人士和1.3亿决策者。

LinkedIn has grown to a network of over 1,000,000,000 professionals and a 130,000,000 decision makers according to their data.

这正是领英与其他广告投放方式的区别所在。

That's where it stands apart from other ad buys.

你可以根据职位、行业、公司角色、职级、技能、公司营收来精准定位买家，从而避免在错误的受众身上浪费预算。

You can target buyers by job title, industry, company role, seniority, skills, company revenue, all so you can stop wasting budget on the wrong audience.

这就是为什么LinkedIn广告拥有所有在线广告网络中最高的B2B广告投资回报率。

That's why LinkedIn ads boast one of the highest b to b return on ad spend of all online ad networks.

真的，所有广告网络中都是最高的。

Seriously, all of them.

在LinkedIn广告上为你的首个广告活动投入250美元，即可获得下一次广告活动250美元的免费额度。

Spend $250 on your first campaign on LinkedIn ads and get a free $250 credit for the next one.

只需访问 linkedin.com/scott。

Just go to linkedin.com/scott.

就是 linkedin.com/scott。

That's linkedin.com/scott.

条款和条件适用。

Terms and conditions apply.

本内容由Stonyfield Organic赞助提供。

This is advertiser content brought to you by Stonyfield Organic.

我们的奶牛很喜欢去牧场。

Our cows, them going out to pasture, they love it.

它们一出去就特别兴奋。

They're so excited to go out.

每天它们都会在门口等着。

Every day, they wait right at the door.

事实上，我们挤完奶后，就打开通道，让它们直接去牧场。

In fact, we milk them and we just open up the laneway and let them just go right out to pasture.

我是伦达·米勒·古德里奇，来自佛蒙特州卡博特的一名奶农。

I'm Rhonda Miller Goodrich and I'm a dairy farmer in Cabot, Vermont.

我们的农场叫莫莉溪农场。

Our farm is Molly Brook Farm.

我们是一家有机奶牛场，也是Stonyfield的供应商。

We're an organic dairy farm and we are a supplier to Stonyfield.

莫莉溪农场自1835年以来就一直属于我丈夫的家族。

Molly Brook Farm has been in my husband's family since 1835.

我们从2015年开始进行有机转型。

We started our organic transition in 2015.

我们当时有53英亩的玉米地，当然必须使用除草剂和杀虫剂，土壤实际上已经完全失去了生机。

We had 53 acres of corn ground and of course we had to use herbicides and pesticides and the soil was dead, really, for all intents purposes.

我们停止种植玉米，也不再使用除草剂和杀虫剂，转而在这片土地上播种多年生牧草。

We stopped growing corn and stopped using herbicides and pesticides and we seeded that down to perennial grasses.

之后，我们再次看到了土壤中生物多样性的恢复。

After that, we began to see biodiversity in that soil again.

要获得有机认证，我们的奶牛每年必须在牧场放养至少120天。

To be organic certified, our cows need to be in pasture at least one hundred and twenty days.

我认为有机养殖方式确实对我们的牲畜有益。

I think the organic practices really benefit our animals.

你知道，提供优质的饲料、干净的饮水和良好的光照环境，这对我们很重要，对Stonyfield也同样重要。

You know, having good feed, good water, a nice light area, that's what's important to us and that's what's important to Stonyfield.

访问stonyfield.com，查找您附近的Stonyfield有机酸奶。

Visit stonyfield.com to find Stonyfield Organic Yogurt near you.

这是特朗普总统关于美国为何与伊朗交战的说法。

This is what president Trump had to say about why The United States is at war with Iran.

我们多次试图达成协议。

We sought repeatedly to make a deal.

我们尝试了。

We tried.

他们本来想做的。

They wanted to do it.

但他们不想做。

They didn't wanna do it.

再次，他们本来想做的。

Again, they wanted to do it.

但他们不想做。

They didn't wanna do it.

他们不知道发生了什么。

They didn't know what was happening.

这可不是对一场选择性战争的最好解释，先生。

Not the best explanation for a war of choice, sir.

我个人是个喜欢自己做研究的人，但让我们问问AI，我们为什么和伊朗开战。

I'm personally a do my own research kinda guy, but let's ask AI why we're at war with Iran.

聊天？

Chat?

美国于2026年攻击伊朗，声称伊朗构成迫在眉睫的威胁，尤其是由于伊朗不断推进的核计划和导弹能力，并旨在削弱伊朗在该地区投射力量的能力。

The United States attacked Iran in 2026 because it claimed Iran posed an imminent threat, particularly due to Iran's advancing nuclear program and missile capabilities and aimed to reduce Iran's ability to project power in the region.

哇。

Wow.

那个解释更好一些。

That that was a better explanation.

谢谢，查德。

Thanks, Chad.

AI比美国总统说得更清楚，这很贴切，因为事实证明，美国正在使用AI来参与对伊朗的战争。

Fitting that AI was more clear than the president of The United States because it turns out The United States is using AI to fight the war in Iran.

战争的未来是人工智能，而这个未来已经到来。

The future of war is AI, and that future is now here.

你想知道是否应该为此感到恐慌，可以去《今日解析》频道看看。

You can find out whether or not you should be freaking out over in the Today Explained feed.

我们继续回到《G教授市场》。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

国防科技初创公司正在筹集数十亿美元，正在重塑一个长期以来由少数几家传统巨头主导的行业。

Defense tech startups are raising billions, and they're reshaping an industry long dominated by a handful of old economy giants.

国防科技公司Anduril目前正在一轮融资中筹集40亿美元，这轮融资可能使其估值翻倍至600亿美元。

Defense tech company Anduril is currently raising $4,000,000,000 in a round that could double the startup's valuation to $60,000,000,000.

与此同时，五角大楼正在与OpenAI以及当然还有Anthropic谈判合同，推动将前沿人工智能融入国防工作流程。

At the same time, the Pentagon is negotiating contracts with OpenAI and, of course, Anthropic, pushing to bring Frontier AI into defense workflows.

Ceronic Technologies正在为海军建造自主船只，而Shield AI正在开发一种正在空军项目中测试的AI飞行员。

Ceronic Technologies is building autonomous boats for the Navy, and Shield AI is building an AI pilot that's being tested in air force efforts.

总的来说，2025年国防科技初创公司获得了有史以来最好的融资年份。

All told, defense tech startups had their best funding year ever in 2025.

风险投资交易额飙升至创纪录的500亿美元，高于2024年的270亿美元。

Venture capital deals jumped to a record $50,000,000,000 up from $27,000,000,000 in 2024.

因此，今天我们邀请到Axios的商业编辑、《Pro Rata》通讯的作者丹·普里马克，来讨论这波新兴的国防科技公司。

So here to discuss this new wave of defense tech companies, we're joined by Dan Primack, business editor at Axios and author of the Pro Rata newsletter.

丹，感谢你做客《Prof G Markets》。

Dan, thank you for joining us on Prof G Markets.

我想先从Anduril的融资说起。

I want to start with Anduril's fundraise.

我的意思是，这是一笔巨大的融资，40亿美元，估值600亿美元。

I mean, just a giant round, $4,000,000,000, $60,000,000,000 valuation.

你曾对此进行过报道。

You reported on this.

跟我们说说你对这笔融资的了解。

Tell us what we know about this round.

是的。

Yeah.

还没完全完成，但大致情况是这样的。

It's it's not completely done yet, but the but the broad strokes of it are.

我觉得可能还有其他投资者会加入，而且他们还没 finalize 所有文件。

I I think, know, some other investors might come in, and and they haven't finalized all the paperwork.

但你看，

But, yeah, look.

在这里提供一些背景：在这一轮之前，Anduril 总共筹集了略高于60亿美元的资金，这无论如何都是任何初创公司的一笔巨款。

Just for some context here, prior to this round, Anduril had raised a total of just over $6,000,000,000 total, which, by the way, is an enormous amount of money for any startup.

但它们还要在此基础上再增加40亿美元，这意味着它们总共筹集的资金将超过100亿，估值将超过600亿。

But they're gonna put 4,000,000,000 more on top of this, which means they'll have raised over 10, be valued at over 60.

你看，

Look.

这基本上意味着它的估值将超过一些在公开市场上上市的国防巨头。

This basically means it would be valued at more than some defense primes are valued at in the public market.

Anduril 到底做什么业务？

What does Anduril actually do?

这名字我们一直都在听说。

This is I mean, it's a name that we keep on hearing.

对于那些不了解Anduril的人，他们到底在做什么？

And for those who who don't know about Anduril, like, what are they building?

他们想实现什么？

What are they trying to do?

Anduril的核心其实是自主性。

The real kind of nub of Anduril is autonomy.

制造自主武器的理念。

The the idea of making autonomous weapons.

有些是完全自主的，有些则是有人参与决策的半自主系统。

Some fully autonomous, some autonomous, you know, but with a human in the loop kind of.

你可以把这想象成现在的自动驾驶——虽然车是自动开的，但车上还是有人坐在驾驶座上，随时可以踩刹车或抓方向盘。

And and with that, think of a lot of self driving right now, which is self driving, but you actually have somebody sitting, at the, you know, in the driver's seat who can hit the brake or can grab the wheel if need be.

这其实就是他们所做事情的核心。

That that's really the the guts of it, is what they're doing.

这意味着将人工智能或机器学习应用于武器以及其他类型的探测技术、安全技术。

And and that means also, you know, applying AI or applying machine learning to weaponry, and to other sorts of detection technologies security technologies.

去年其估值为305亿美元，如今已翻了一番。

So valued at 30 and a half billion dollars last year, the valuation has doubled now.

这个故事的一部分是否在于世界上战争正在增多？

Is is part of this story the fact that there is more warfare happening in the world?

一部分原因是战争增多，美国的国防支出也在增加。

Part of it is there's more warfare and more defense spending in The US.

对吧？

Right?

如果你看一下，如果你看一下

If you look at the if you look at

大多数人认为的减税法案，也就是去年国会通过、特朗普政府签署生效的那项宏伟法案，大幅增加了国防支出。

the what most people view as the tax break bill, the big beautiful bill that got passed last year by congress and the Trump and signed into law by the Trump administration, huge increase in defense spending.

所以这就是其中一个原因。

So there's that.

人们意识到，新技术就像正在改变我们社会的其他方方面面一样，也能改变那些相对传统的武器，显然，你希望跟上其他国家和对手的步伐。

There's a recognition that that new technologies, just like they're trans you know, transforming every other part of our society, also can transform what were kind of some staid weapons, and and you wanna keep up obviously with the other countries and and your adversaries.

但你看。

But look.

是的。

Yes.

我们美国以及我们的盟友目前参与的战争比以往任何时候都多，无论是向乌克兰提供武器，还是如今在伊朗发生的事情，又或是一个月前在委内瑞拉发生的事——我们美国目前所涉及的战场，比以往任何时期都要多。

We are fighting more than we have before in The US and our allies are, whether whether that be arming people in Ukraine, whether that be what's happening right now in Iran, whether that be what happened, you know, a month or two ago in Venezuela, yeah, we we are in more theaters than The US has been in in a for a long time.

硅谷在这其中扮演了什么角色？

What about Silicon Valley's role in this?

因为这似乎也是发生改变的一个方面。

Because that seems to be also something that has changed.

过去，你有像诺斯罗普·格鲁曼、洛克希德·马丁这样的传统国防巨头，它们都有自己的历史。

You had all of these very legacy prime defense companies, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, etcetera, and they have their own histories.

但现在看来，硅谷的投资者和风投，那些投资于消费者科技应用、像DoorDash和Uber这类公司的投资人，如今也在投资未来的武器系统。

But now it seems as though investors, VCs in Silicon Valley who invest in, like, consumer tech apps, invest in things like DoorDash and Uber, they're also investing in the weaponry of tomorrow.

这在硅谷难道不是一个越来越重要的议题吗？这是否是一个新的范式？

Is this not becoming a larger story in Silicon Valley, and is that a new paradigm?

这绝对是全新的。

It is definitely new.

我的意思是，我记得几年前去过硅谷。

I mean, I remember going out Silicon Valley.

我想大概是八年前，我去了Founder Fund的办公室。

It I'm gonna guess it was about eight years ago now over to Founder Fund's offices.

Founder Fund是Anduril最早的投资者之一，他们实际上主导了最近一轮之前的那轮融资，金额高达305亿美元。

And Founder Fund was one of the earliest investors in Anduril, and and they actually led this most recent or not the new round, but the prior one at 30 and a half billion dollars.

当时在一群硅谷人士面前，进行了一场关于风险投资家投资国防科技和军事技术的对话，讨论了军方如何试图与硅谷合作。

And it was a conversation in front of a bunch of Valley people kind of quote on stage private conversation about venture capitalists investing in, defense tech and military tech and how the military was trying to partner with Silicon Valley.

顺便说一句，这并不一定是左右派的问题。

By the way, this isn't necessarily a right left thing.

拜登政府初期的国防部长阿什·卡特，曾多次访问硅谷，并取得了大量进展。

Ash Carter, who was defense secretary at the beginning of the Biden administration, made tons of inroads and tons of visits to Silicon Valley.

所以这件事双方都有涉及，但历史上，硅谷和硅谷的工程师们并不愿意为军方提供产品。

So this is something that's both sides, but historically, the Valley and Valley engineers haven't wanted to provide things to the military.

他们担心这些技术会被如何使用。

They've been concerned about how they would get used.

我认为这种情况并没有完全改变。

I don't think that's completely changed.

当然，看看过去一周Anthropic和五角大楼之间发生的事情，但风险投资家们的态度确实发生了转变。

Definitely look at what's happened with Anthropic and the Pentagon over the last week, but there has been a shift among venture capitalists.

顺便说一下，风险投资家们的态度并不仅仅出于伦理或道德考量。

And by the way, it wasn't just a an ethics thing or a morals thing for venture capitalists.

他们还觉得，不想投资那些主要客户是联邦政府的公司，因为那里会牵涉到各种采购问题和巨大的集中风险。

It was also a feeling that we don't want to back companies whose primary customer is the federal government because there becomes all sorts of procurement issues there all sorts of concentration risk there.

而且你看，Anduril公司就是这样。

And and look, Anduril has that.

他们也向美国的盟友销售产品，但对美国政府有着巨大的集中风险。

They sell to US allies also, but they have enormous concentration risk with the US government.

现在我们到了这样一个阶段，令人非常感兴趣的是，我们未来武器的资助者——这些可是硅谷的投资人。

It is very interesting that we're now at this point where the backers of of our weaponry of tomorrow I mean, these are Silicon Valley investors.

他们是科技界的人。

They're tech people.

我不知道美国国防领域的完整历史，但我的理解是，过去这些公司、这些武器的资助主要来自政府。

And I I I guess I don't know the full history of defense in The US, but my understanding is this was more in the in the realm of government to be funding these companies, funding these weapons.

作为经常参与这些会议、了解这些人的旁观者，这让你感到担忧吗？还是说，这只不过是从不同地方来的钱？

Does that just as someone who's who's been in these rooms, who knows these people, does that concern you at all, or is this just, you know, it's just money from a different place?

老实说，我觉得这只是来自不同地方的钱。

I think it's just money from a different place, honestly.

而且，确实，这非常合理。

And and, look, and it really does make sense.

对吧？

Right?

当你思考武器的运作方式时，甚至更广泛地说，像拦截器之类的东西，这些都属于技术领域。

When you think about the way that weaponry or even view it more defensive than than weapons, whether that be things like interceptors, etcetera, These are all technology plays.

对吧？

Right?

这可不是让你去训练一群人去登陆海滩。

This isn't, you know, training a bunch of guys to be able to go storm a beach.

对吧？

Right?

那是种体力活。

That that's a that's a physical thing.

你知道的。

You know?

让他们都保持体形。

Put them all in shape.

这是整个技术栈上的技术。

The this is technology that everything throughout the stack.

对吧？

Right?

从芯片到软件，我们所想到的无人机技术，大部分都涉及其中。

Everything from the chips to to the software, so much of what we're think of drones.

对吧？

Right?

你知道，无人机技术主要由硅谷资助，既用于消费领域，现在也用于军事用途。

You know, drone technology has largely been funded by Silicon Valley for both consumer use and now for military use.

自从我们看到对伊朗的打击后，人们说这场冲突可能持续几周，也可能持续几个月。

Now that we've seen the strikes in Iran, I mean, people are saying it's gonna last maybe a couple weeks, maybe a couple months.

我觉得没人真的知道。

I I don't think anyone actually knows.

没人知道。

No one knows.

你认为国防领域，尤其是我们正在见证的这个新兴的国防科技行业，接下来会怎样？

What do you think happens next for the defense sector and especially for defense tech, this burgeoning industry that is that we're seeing?

Anduril 就是其中之一。

Anduril is one of them.

这意味着我们将会看到像Anduril这样的公司投入更大规模的资金吗？

Does this mean that we're gonna see larger and larger rounds from companies like Anduril?

这意味着未来会有更多的资金投入吗？

Does this mean more money going forward?

我认为很可能如此。

I think it most likely does.

我认为很可能如此。

I think it most likely does.

举个例子，我们并不清楚Anduril的技术是否已经被用于伊朗的袭击行动。

You know, we we don't know, for example, exactly if Anduril technology has been used so far in the strikes in Iran.

我们对此并不确定。

We don't know that for sure.

不过，国防部长哈格塞特今天在新闻发布会上谈到了自主武器的使用。

Although, defense secretary Hagstack did today, speak at a press conference, and he talked about the use of autonomous weaponry.

因此，可以推测Anduril的技术或类似技术已被使用。

So one can assume that Anduril technology was used or stuff very similar to that.

所以，是的，你看。

So, yeah, look.

而且，即使没有其他原因，美国也必须补充弹药库存。

And and if for no other reason, The United States is going to have to replenish stockpiles.

对吧？

Right?

我们正在花费，你知道的，我们在伊朗战场上投入了巨额资金和大量实体装备。

We're spending an, you know, we're spending enormous amount of money, but also physical hardware on the ground in Iran.

每次我们投下一件武器，最终都必须替换掉它。

Every time we drop something, that's something that we ultimately have to replace.

特别是如果我们使用的是自主无人机等设备，这些很可能由风险投资支持的公司和硅谷企业来替换。

And particularly if we're using autonomous drones, etcetera, those are gonna get replaced most likely by companies that are backed by venture capitalists and Silicon Valley companies.

好的。

Alright.

在硅谷，真是个有趣的时期。

Interesting time to be in Silicon Valley.

丹·普里马克，Axios的商业编辑，《Pro Rata》通讯的作者。

Dan Primack, business editor at Axios, author of the Pro Rata newsletter.

丹，感谢你抽出时间。

Dan, appreciate your time.

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢。

Thank you.

正如你可能已经注意到的，我们这周在节目中真正讨论的唯一话题就是战争。

Well, as you've probably noticed, the only thing we've really talked about on the show this week is war.

我们谈到了战争对能源的影响、对通货膨胀的影响，以及对投资的影响。

We talked about the energy implications of war, the inflation implications of war, the investment implications of war.

尽管除了战争之外还有其他事情在发生，但现实是，目前人们最关心的正是战争。

And while there are other things happening outside of war, the reality is war is what people mostly care about right now.

所以我们才在讨论这个。

And so that is what we're talking about.

在未来几周甚至几个月里，每一个头条、每一篇文章、每一个播客，你都可以合理地假设它们几乎都会围绕战争展开。

Every headline, every article, every podcast for next the few weeks, maybe months, you can safely assume that they will all pretty much be about war.

那我为什么这么说呢？

Now why am I saying this?

首先，我认为我们应该注意到，这将改变我们日常对话的基调。

Well, for one, I think we should just note that this is going to change the complexion of our conversations in everyday life.

我们会越来越少谈论关税和人工智能，而更多地关注枪支、导弹和伊朗。

We will be thinking less about tariffs and less about AI and more about guns and missiles and Iran.

这正是新闻周期的现实。

That is just the reality of the news cycle.

它改变了我们思考的内容。

It changes what we think about.

我提出这一点的第二个原因，或许对这个播客来说更为相关，那就是这也将改变我们对投资的思考方式。

Now the second reason I bring this up is perhaps more relevant to this podcast, and that is this is also going to change the way we think about our investments.

正如战争现在在一般性对话中占据了更大的比重，它也将在人们的投资组合中开始占据更大的位置。

And in the same way that war is now taking a larger position in general conversation, it's also going to start taking a larger position in people's portfolios.