苹果对OpenAI的战争已升级为个人恩怨

本节目由BCX赞助播出，BCX是私人科技公司的公开股票代码。

Support for the show comes from BCX, the public ticker for private tech.

美国股市开启了历史上最伟大的财富创造浪潮，从底特律的工厂工人到奥马哈的农民，人人都能参与。

The US stock market started history's greatest wave of wealth creation from factory workers in Detroit to farmers in Omaha.

任何人都可以拥有伟大美国公司的一部分。

Anyone can own a piece of the great American companies.

但如今，我们最具创新力的公司保持私有化的时间更长了，这意味着普通美国人一直错失机会，直到现在。

But today, our most innovative companies are staying private longer, which means everyday Americans are missing out until now.

隆重推出VCX，私人科技公司的公开股票代码，现在可以在任何购买股票的地方买到。

Introducing VCX, a public ticker for private tech, now available wherever you buy stocks.

更多信息请访问getvcx.com。

Visit getvcx.com for more info.

网址是getvcx.com。

That's getvcx.com.

投资前请仔细考虑投资材料，包括目标、风险、费用和开支。

Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses.

这些信息和其他信息都可以在基金的招募说明书中找到，网址是 getvcx.com。

This and other information can be found in the fund's prospectus at getvcx.com.

这是一条付费广告。

This is a paid sponsorship.

本节目由 Odoo 赞助播出。

Support for this show comes from Odoo.

经营企业已经够难的了，何必再用一堆互不兼容的应用程序来增加难度呢？

Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other?

隆重推出 Odoo。

Introducing Odoo.

它是你唯一需要的商业软件。

It's the only business software you'll ever need.

它是一个一体化、全面集成的平台，让你的工作更轻松。

It's an all in one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier.

客户关系管理、会计、库存、电子商务等等，一应俱全。

CRM, accounting, inventory, ecommerce, and more.

最棒的是什么呢？

And the best part?

Odoo 替代了多个昂贵的平台，而成本只是

Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction

其中一小部分。

of the cost.

这就是为什么成千上万的企业都选择了它。

That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch.

那你为什么不试试呢？

So why not you?

去 odoo.com 免费试用 Odoo。

Try Odoo for free at odoo.com.

网址是 odoo.com。

That's odoo.com.

粉末、药丸、冷水浴，到处都能看到新的健康潮流。

Powders, pills, plunges, everywhere you look, there seems to be a new wellness trend.

我们都想感觉好。

We all wanna feel good.

如果有办法感觉更好，我想，你不想试试吗？

And if there's a way to feel better, I think, wouldn't you wanna try it?

我会的。

I would.

保持健康的代价是什么，我们为什么一开始就这么痴迷于此？

What's the cost of being well, and why are we so obsessed with it in the first place?

这就是本周的《解释给我听》。

That's this week on Explain It To Me.

每周日，在你收听播客的任何地方都能找到新一期。

Find episodes every Sunday wherever wherever you get your podcasts.

货币市场疯了。

Money market's mad.

如果金钱是邪恶的，那么那座建筑就是地狱。

If money is evil, then that building is hell.

节目继续。

Show goes on.

诺亚手表的价格非常非常……欢迎收听《Prof G Markets》。

The price of Noah's watch is so so Welcome to Prof G Markets.

我是埃德·埃尔森。

I'm Ed Elson.

今天是8月5日。

It is August 5.

让我们回顾一下昨天的市场动态。

Let's check-in on yesterday's market vitals.

主要股指上涨，道琼斯指数和标普500指数创下历史新高，原因是市场预期霍尔木兹海峡将很快重新开放。

The major indices climbed with the Dow and the S and P five 100 hitting record highs on hopes that the Strait Of Hormuz would soon reopen.

布伦特原油价格跌破每桶80美元。

Brent crude oil dropped below $80 per barrel.

十年期国债收益率下降。

The yield on ten year treasuries declined.

AMD股价下跌超过8%，尽管营收创下历史新高。

AMD shares dropped more than 8% despite posting record revenues.

最后，Palantir股价在业绩超预期并上调展望后，次日暴涨近30%。

And finally, Palantir shares popped almost 30% a day after crushing earnings and raising its outlook.

好的。

Okay.

还有什么其他消息？

What else is happening?

OpenAI和苹果之间的法律战刚刚升级了。

The legal war between OpenAI and Apple just heated up.

上个月，苹果起诉了OpenAI，指控其窃取商业机密来打造自己的AI硬件设备。

Last month, Apple sued OpenAI, accusing the company of stealing trade secrets to build its own AI hardware device.

当时，苹果称这起诉讼只是冰山一角。

At the time, Apple called the lawsuit, quote, just the tip of the iceberg.

然后周一，苹果要求联邦法官禁止OpenAI及其两名前员工访问、使用或披露其声称属于商业机密的信息。

Then on Monday, Apple asked a federal judge to bar OpenAI and two ex employees from accessing, using, or disclosing information it claims are trade secrets.

苹果还要求法院加快审理此案，称其商业秘密面临‘迫在眉睫的威胁’。

Apple also asked the court to fast track the case, arguing that there is a, quote, imminent threat to its trade secrets.

OpenAI随后在博客文章中回击，称该诉讼‘草率、咄咄逼人，而且针对个人’。

OpenAI then fired back in a blog post calling the lawsuit, quote, careless, aggressive, and oddly personal.

该公司还指责苹果的律师在混淆了两个姓氏相似的亚裔人士后，误将邮件发给了错误的人。

The company also accused Apple's lawyers of mistakenly emailing the wrong person after confusing two people with similar Asian surnames.

OpenAI坚称无意使用其他公司的商业秘密，并表示该诉讼‘基于虚假信息’。

OpenAI maintains it has no interest in using another company's trade secrets and says the suit is, quote, based on false information.

听证会已定于10月1日举行。

The hearing has been scheduled for October 1.

为了解读这场风波，我们请到了《Sources》通讯的作者Alex Heath。

Here to unpack this drama, we are speaking with Alex Heath, author of the Sources newsletter.

Alex，很高兴见到你。

Alex, it's good to see you.

我们先从苹果在本周初提交的初步禁令说起吧。

Let's just start with Apple's preliminary injunction, which was filed at the beginning of the week.

然后我们再来说说OpenAI的反击，那真是既好笑又重要。

Then we'll get to OpenAI's clapback, which was equal parts hilarious and important.

苹果在这里说了什么？

What is Apple saying here?

他们现在指控OpenAI什么？

What are they accusing OpenAI of now?

嗯，他们基本上是在暗示，事情比他们之前透露的要复杂，他们认为的腐败问题其实更深。

Well, they're basically suggesting that there's more to the story than they've led on previously, that the corruption as they see it runs deeper.

而且我觉得最重要的是，就像你在开场白里说的，他们想要一个初步禁令。

And I think most importantly, as you said in the intro, they're wanting a preliminary injunction.

说实话，咱们现实点吧。

I mean, let's be real.

苹果就是想拖慢OpenAI的脚步。

Apple's trying to slow OpenAI down.

这就是他们的目的。

That's what they're trying to do.

他们想阻止今年晚些时候首款设备的发布，把整件事搅黄，让员工无法继续工作。

They're trying to keep this launch that they have for their first device later this year from happening, derail the whole thing, freeze employees from continuing to work on things.

所以我觉得这就是为什么我们看到你提到的OpenAI的回应。

And that's why I think we saw that OpenAI response that you talked about.

那你对这个回应怎么看？

So what do you make of that response?

他们一开始就提到苹果的律师发错了邮件，还特别指出他们混淆了两个亚洲人的名字，我觉得这看起来是故意的。

They started with that point about Apple's lawyers emailing the wrong person, and they specifically mentioned that they confused, the names of two Asian people, which is I mean, that seems intentional.

这挺尴尬的。

It's embarrassing.

这也是他们在这种案子里放这种料的原因，好让我们这些人去讨论它，而不是讨论案件本身，这有点转移注意力。

That's also something you put into a case like this to get people like us to talk about it rather than the merits It's of the a bit of a distraction.

就像是在说‘看这边’一样。

It's like a look over here thing.

他们不小心发错邮件了。

They're accidentally emailing people.

你还会注意到，我不是律师，但你会注意到OpenAI用的措辞非常具体。

You'll also notice, I'm no lawyer, but you'll notice like the very specific language OpenAI has used.

我们对使用商业机密没有兴趣。

We have no interest in using trade secrets.

就像对我妻子说，我偷吃了一块饼干后，我对吃饼干没有兴趣，这并不能否定我可能吃了饼干的事实。

Like saying to my wife, like after I snuck a cookie that I have no interest in eating cookies doesn't negate the fact that I maybe ate the cookie.

对吧？

Right?

这两种说法完全不同。

These are very different statements.

比如你可以说，我们没有做过这件事，我们准备在法庭上抗争。

Like you could say, we have not done this, and we're ready to fight this in court.

他们不是这么说的。

They're not saying this.

他们说我们对这个没有兴趣。

They're saying we have no interest in this.

我觉得可能双方都有一些不想公开的尴尬事，这是我对目前情况和他们表态方式的理解。

I think probably both parties have some embarrassing things that they don't wanna come out, is my read of the situation and the way they're messaging it.

这是一场非常恶毒的诉讼。

It's a very nasty lawsuit.

我的意思是，OpenAI 说苹果处理这件事的方式让人觉得有点针对个人，确实如此。

I mean, OpenAI was saying that this, you know, way that Apple's approached this has felt oddly personal, and it's like, yeah.

废话。

No shit.

这对苹果来说确实非常个人化。

It is super personal to Apple.

你知道吗？

You know?

你雇了乔尼·艾维。

You hired Johnny Ive.

他曾在苹果负责设计。

He ran design at Apple.

你雇了苹果的人，苹果自己说的，你知道，几百个前员工。

You hired as Apple as Apple has put it, you know, hundreds of ex employees.

艾迪·库的儿子在OpenAI做这个硬件。

Eddie Q's son is working at OpenAI on this hardware.

我是说，这真的很私人。

I mean, it is very personal.

大家都认识彼此。

Everyone knows each other.

他们交情很深。

They go way back.

而且苹果对这些事情非常认真。

And Apple takes these things very seriously.

他们一直很一致，甚至追溯到史蒂夫·乔布斯时代，对这类诉讼、挖角员工非常严肃，起诉涉嫌泄密的前员工。

They've been very consistent even back to Steve Jobs on litigating these kinds of things, taking, you know, employee poaching very seriously, suing ex employees for suspected leaking.

他们这样行事并不反常。

This is not out of the norm of them to behave this way.

我觉得OpenAI的回应，你知道，他们一开始说多么尊重苹果，然后又说这根本不值得他们理会。

I think OpenAI going, you know, it's they start with saying, like, how much respect they have for Apple and then saying, like, this is beneath them.

这是一种策略，但也没有回应苹果提出的实质问题。

It's a tactic, but it also doesn't speak to, like, the merits of what Apple has said.

如果你看看OpenAI为了支持自己而发布的声明，我没看到确凿的证据表明苹果完全错了。

And if you look at the text that OpenAI has produced to try to back up, I didn't see a smoking gun there that, you know, Apple's totally in the wrong here.

我只看到很多各说各话、道听途说。

I just see a lot of he said, she said, hearsay.

对。

Yeah.

也许有些前苹果员工联系OpenAI的人，只是单纯地想拿回一些东西，而苹果就借此说OpenAI的人泄露或窃取了专有信息。

Maybe some ex Apple employees reached out to the people at OpenAI asking just innocently for stuff back, and Apple is using that to say, oh, OpenAI people are leaking proprietary info or taking it from Apple.

这件事充满了混乱的气氛，让人觉得这两家公司互相仇视。

There's just a lot of, like, very messy energy to this that suggests these two companies hate each other.

而且我两边都没看到确凿的证据。

And I I haven't seen a smoking gun on either side.

我觉得双方都有更多可能丢脸的地方，而且我觉得从OpenAI的回应方式就能看出来。

I see a lot of, like, potential room for more embarrassment on each side, and I think you see that even in the way OpenAI has responded.

嗯，这正是OpenAI在博客文章回应里让我印象深刻的地方——我本来期待他们能对指控做出真正的反驳，但我找不到。

Well, that was sort of what struck me in in OpenAI's response in in the blog post that they published is I was looking for them to make the actual counterargument to the claim, but I I I couldn't I couldn't find it.

我以为看到他们的指控就是在反驳，因为那些措辞非常强烈，充满指责。

I thought I was seeing it when I was seeing all of their accusations because the language was very powerful and very accusatory.

但用你那个偷饼干的比喻来说，这有点像，嘿。

But to go with, like, you're stealing cookies analogy, it kind of is like, hey.

不。

No.

我没偷，或者他们没说我没偷饼干。

I didn't steal or they didn't say I didn't steal cookies.

指控是你偷了饼干，然后回应是，对。

The accusation was you stole the cookies, and then the response was like, yeah.

嗯，但你之前也没洗衣服啊。

Well, you didn't do the laundry earlier.

对。

Yeah.

或者说，我对那些饼干根本不感兴趣。

Or it's like, I I have no interest in the cookies.

也许我确实吃了，但可能是无意中吃的。

Maybe I did eat them, but maybe I did it accidentally.

是的。

Yes.

所以这可能最终会归结为，确实有一些商业秘密被无意中转移了，这很糟糕，而苹果正利用这一点来狠下杀手，拖慢进程。

And that's like maybe where this lands is like, there were some unintentional transfers of trade secrets, and that's bad, and Apple's using that to really go for the jugular and slow things down.

如果最后真是这样，我也不会感到意外，但我们不知道，对吧？

I would not be surprised if that ends up where this lands, but we don't know, right?

比如，你我都还没看到所有的证据披露，那还没发生。

Like, you and I haven't seen all of the discovery, it hasn't happened.

OpenAI正在提供这些文本。

OpenAI is producing these texts.

对我来说，这些文本并没有真正推动任何一方的论点向前发展。

To me, these texts don't really meaningfully move anything forward on the arguments on either side.

所以我觉得我们得等等看苹果怎么回应。

So I think we'll have to wait and see how Apple responds.

你知道，如果这件事能和解，或者苹果获得禁令，那会非常有意思。

You know, it'll be really interesting if this settles or Apple gets the injunction.

我的意思是，OpenAI 确实是因为禁令才回应的，因为如果禁令被批准，他们就得暂停他们第一款设备的工作。

I mean, OpenAI definitely responded because of the injunction because if that were granted, they'd have to pause work on their their first device.

我的意思是，如果他们实际上没有针对案件的实质内容，而且这在法律领域站不住脚，那发这篇博客到底有什么意义呢？

I mean, what really is the point of posting this blog if they're not actually addressing the merits of the case and if it's not gonna hold water really in the legal sphere.

我的意思是，我知道你

I mean, I I know you're

不是律师。

not a lawyer.

嗯，我不知道。

Well, I don't know.

所以我不想说得太绝对，毕竟我只是关注这个案子的人，不知道它能不能站得住脚。

So I don't wanna speak to, like, I don't know if it'll hold water as someone who's just following the case.

对我来说，我没看到有力的反驳。

To me, I didn't see a strong rebuttal.

我确实看到了，你知道，像Haktan，就是他们在OpenAI指控的最高层人物，前苹果高管。

I did see, you know, like, Haktan, like, the most senior person that they're accusing at OpenAI, the former Apple leader.

你知道，我确实看到OpenAI有一个非常简单的笼统回应，就是他一直告诉人们不要给他商业机密。

You know, I did see OpenAI have a very simple blanket, like, he always told people not to give him trade secrets kind of response.

没有针对任何具体问题，我是说，苹果非常具体地指出OpenAI员工如何涉嫌强迫人们提供信息。

Didn't address like any specific I mean, Apple's very specific about how OpenAI employees allegedly coerce information out of people.

而OpenAI在回应中没有详细说明这一点。

And OpenAI didn't get into detail on that in its response.

非常笼统。

It was very blanket.

再说，这种“我们没有兴趣”的说法，并不等于说“你没做过”。

And again, this like, we have no interest, it's not the same as saying you didn't do it.

这看起来真的很重要。

It seems really important.

而且这措辞非常非常讲究。

And it's like very, very specifically lawyered.

我见过更有力的回应，通常标准说法是，哦，这毫无根据。

And I've seen much forceful responses where, you know, usually the standard is like, oh, this is meritless.

我们认为这个案子毫无根据，我们期待在法庭上辩护。

We believe this case is meritless, and we look forward to defending it in court.

对吧？

Right?

但这里你看不到这种说法。

You're not seeing that here.

你看到的是很多像，为什么这这么针对个人？

You're seeing a lot of like, why is this so personal?

我们没有利益冲突。

We have no interests.

就是，非常，非常青春期的叛逆感。

Like, it's very it's very, teenage angsty.

对。

Yeah.

真的很有意思。

It's really interesting.

你觉得这对这款硬件设备的发布意味着什么？

What do you think this means for the launch of this hardware device?

我的意思是，对于OpenAI一直在研发的这款硬件设备，我们现在到底处于什么阶段？

I mean, where do we even stand on this hardware device that's been that OpenAI has been working on?

它还在推进中吗？

Is that still happening?

我听到的最新消息，也是其他人报道过的，就是他们肯定在按计划推进，预计今年晚些时候会发布第一款设备。据说那会是一款类似Alexa或HomePod那样的AI音箱，上面有很多传感器，可以放在你的办公桌上或桌子上，能感知周围环境，甚至可能会打断你说话，基本上就是有一个AI人格，有点像你的AI首席助理，能感知你周围的世界。

I mean, the latest I've heard and that others have reported is they definitely are on track for an unveil sometime later this year of the first device, which is supposedly gonna be this kind of Alexa HomePod like AI speaker with a bunch of sensors on it that kind of sits at your desk or goes on a table and ambiently takes in the environment, maybe even interrupts you, essentially has like an AI personality, maybe your AI chief of staff kind of in a way, and takes in the world around you.

然后显然，他们说过他们还在研发一系列设备。

And then obviously they have a family of devices they've said they're working on.

我觉得我们可能会看到一些耳机、手腕上的东西，还有眼镜之类的。

Think we're gonna see probably some kinds of earbuds, maybe a wrist thing, some glasses.

他们不会做手机。

They're not gonna do a phone.

但我敢肯定苹果很想放慢这个的发布速度。

But I'm sure Apple would love to slow down, you know, the release of this.

我觉得斯科特也一直在说，可能值得花点律师费，就是为了在这个竞争激烈的时刻制造混乱。

I mean, I think Scott has been saying that as well, that like it's worth probably the legal fees just to like introduce chaos into this very competitive moment.

不过，不管OpenAI秋天推出什么，都不会蚕食iPhone的销量。

Whatever OpenAI though is putting out in the fall, like, it's not gonna cannibalize iPhone sales.

所以对苹果来说，短期内没有风险。

So there's no like near term risk to Apple here.

我觉得这更多是原则问题，苹果感觉被背叛了。

I think it's more of like the principle that Apple feels very betrayed.

而且，这显然非常私人化。

And yes, it's clearly very personal.

你知道，OpenAI 最资深的高管 Hock Tan，他们指控他离开苹果并带走机密，还胁迫获取机密，他以前和即将上任的苹果新 CEO John Turnis 关系非常密切。

You know, Hock Tan, the most senior executive at OpenAI, they're accusing of leaving Apple and taking secrets and coercing for secrets, you know, used to work very closely with John Turnis, right, the new CEO of Apple incoming.

他们交情很深。

Like these people go way back.

所以，很有意思的是，乔尼·艾维没有被列入诉讼，这也说明了一些问题。

And so it's also very telling, think, uninteresting that Johnny Ive is not named in the suit.

我知道之前讨论过这个，但他一直置身事外，这让我觉得他们之间可能有什么全面协议，我不是在报道，只是猜测，他被排除在外是有意为之，也许这并不意味着他没有牵连，只是苹果没法把他牵扯进来。

I mean, know that's been discussed before, but, he continues to stay out of it, which to me suggests there's some kind of blanket agreement there that, I'm not reporting this, I'm just speculating that, you know, there's there's an intentional reason he's been left out of it, and maybe it doesn't mean that he's not implicated, but Apple isn't able to include him.

假设初步禁令获批，苹果赢了，硬件发布至少被搁置，甚至可能直接取消。

Say the preliminary injunction is granted, Apple wins that, and the hardware launch is, at the very least, put on hold or maybe even just canceled.

那对 OpenAI 来说会有多糟糕？

How bad would that be for OpenAI?

这对他们有多重要？

How important is it to them?

非常糟糕。

Very bad.

如果苹果赢得禁令有任何苗头，我预测你会看到OpenAI全力反击，把这事闹大，并做一堆反对宣传。

If there's any traction of Apple winning an injection, you're gonna see, my prediction, you're gonna see OpenAI go, you know, full court press on this and make a big mess of it and do a bunch of oppo messaging against this.

这非常重要。

It matters a lot.

他们能否把硬件做好，关系重大。

There's a lot riding on them getting hardware right.

这对萨姆·奥尔特曼和乔尼来说是个私人性质的事情，他们花了超过60亿美元收购乔尼的硬件团队。

It's a personal kind of thing for Sam Altman and Johnny, and they spent over $6,000,000,000 on acquiring Johnny's hardware team.

他们一直在搞这些东西。

They've been working on this stuff.

那会非常糟糕。

It would be very bad.

好吧。

Alright.

我们看看事情会怎么发展。

We'll see how things unfold.

亚历克斯·希思是《消息来源》通讯的作者。

Alex Heath is author of the Sources newsletter.

亚历克斯，一直很感谢你抽出时间。

Alex, always appreciate your time.

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢，艾德。

Thanks, Ed.

休息之后，我们先来看看SpaceX的财报。

After the break, a first look at SpaceX earnings.

想获取更多市场见解，可以订阅我的每周通讯《简单说》，网址是simplyput.profgmedia.com。

And for even more markets insights, you can subscribe to my weekly newsletter, Simply Put, at simplyput.profgmedia.com.

本期节目由Noom赞助播出。

Support for the show comes from Noom.

大多数旅程都不是直线前进的。

Most journeys don't travel in a straight line.

人生总有起起落落，有高峰也有低谷。

There are ups and downs, peaks and valleys.

减肥也是一样的道理。

Weight loss can feel the same way.

通常，减掉体重只是成功了一半。

Often losing the weight is only half the battle.

保持不反弹才是另一半。

Keeping it off is the other half.

这就是为什么Noom将GLP-1药物和行为支持结合起来，旨在帮助人们建立更健康的生活习惯，并长期维持进步。

That's why Noom combines GLP one medication and behavioral support designed to help people build healthier routines and sustain progress over time.

Noom发现，使用Noom比单独使用GLP-1药物能多减掉37%的体重。

Noom found that 37% more weight is lost when using Noom than just taking GLPs on their own.

而且体重也能保持住。

And the weight is sustained too.

这是因为Noom采用基于心理学、有科学依据的计划，将药物与每日课程和饮食记录相结合，以支持持久的减肥效果。

That's because Noom uses a psychology based science backed program that pairs your medication with daily lessons and food logging to support weight loss that lasts.

另外，你还能获得个性化的减肥计划和专家指导，这些都能帮你最大化GLP-1药物的效果，同时帮你养成可持续的健康习惯，让你活得更健康、更长久。

Plus, you can get personalized weight loss plans and expert coaching designed to maximize your success with GLP ones while helping you develop sustainable habits to live better and longer.

新的GLP-1项目起价39美元，最快7天就能送到你家门口。

The new GLP one program starts at $39 and is delivered to your door in as little as seven days.

今天就去noom.com开始你的GLP-1之旅吧。

Start your GLP one journey today at noom.com.

网址是noom.com。

That's noom.com.

Noom，让你瘦下来并保持住。

Noom, lose for keeps.

首月订阅费39美元起，另加税费，之后每月99美元起，另加税费。

Initial one month subscription from $39 plus tax and $99 plus tax per month thereafter.

药费不包含在内。

Cost of medication not included.

最终价格取决于你选择的项目。

Final pricing depends upon program selection.

本期节目由Rippling赞助播出。

Support for the show comes from Rippling.

想象一下，你刚发现销售团队可能完不成销售指标。

Imagine you just found out your sales team is at risk of missing quota.

别慌。

No need to panic.

直接问Rippling AI就行。

Just ask Rippling AI.

因为它基于你实时的人员和业务数据，Rippling AI可以从Rippling和Salesforce中提取数据，生成一个会议用的仪表盘，显示销售指标完成情况、人员编制趋势以及各地区的月度收入与指标对比。

Since it's built on your real time people and business data, Rippling AI can pull metrics from Rippling and Salesforce into a meeting ready dashboard showing quota attainment, headcount trajectory, and monthly revenue to quota by region.

几秒钟内，你就能看清指标风险背后的原因，并在问题发生前解决它。

In seconds, you can see exactly what's behind your quota risk and fix it before it's missed.

问题得到解答，行动得以执行，危机得以化解。

Question answered, action taken, crisis averted.

所以，当你有关键业务问题需要答案时，别只是提交工单，然后等上几周才能拿到过时的报告。

So when you have critical business questions that need answers, don't just file a ticket and wait weeks for an outdated report.

描述你的需求，让 Rippling AI 根据你的实时人员和业务数据立即构建。

Describe what you need and have Rippling AI build it instantly from your live people and business data.

无论是带详细图表的仪表盘，还是带有正确触发器、条件和审批的自动化工作流。

Whether it's a dashboard with detailed charts or automated workflows with the right triggers, conditions, and approvals.

准备好掌控你的业务了吗？

Ready to rule your business?

前往 rippling.ai/markets，获取唯一能让你全面了解并能在整个组织中执行复杂操作的 AI。

Head to rippling.ai/markets to get the only AI built to give you full visibility and take complex actions across your entire organization.

网址是 r i p p l i n g 点 a i 斜杠 markets。

That's r I p p l I n g dot a I slash markets.

今天就注册，获取独家访问权限。

Sign up for exclusive access today.

本节目由 Odoo 赞助。

Support for this show comes from Odoo.

经营企业已经够难了，何必再用一堆互不兼容的应用程序来增加难度呢？

Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other?

介绍一下Odoo。

Introducing Odoo.

它是你唯一需要的商业软件。

It's the only business software you'll ever need.

它是一个集成的全功能平台，让你的工作更轻松。

It's an all in one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier.

客户关系管理、会计、库存、电子商务等等。

CRM, accounting, inventory, ecommerce, and more.

最棒的是什么？

And the best part?

Odoo以极低的成本取代多个昂贵的平台。

Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost.

这就是为什么成千上万的企业已经转向Odoo。

That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch.

那你为什么不试试呢？

So why not you?

去oddo.com免费试用ODDO。

Try ODDO for free at oddo.com.

就是odoo.com。

That's odoo.com.

欢迎回到Prof G Markets。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

SpaceX昨天首次公布了财报，业绩强劲，但投资者仍然不满意。

SpaceX made its earnings debut yesterday, and the results were strong, but investors still weren't happy.

公司报告了惊人的92%的同比增长，而且太空、连接和AI这三个业务部门都超出了预期。

The company reported massive revenue growth of 92% year over year, and all three business segments, space, connectivity, and AI, beat expectations.

就在财报发布前半小时，SpaceX还宣布了与NVIDIA的合作。

Just half an hour before the results came out, SpaceX also made a separate announcement, a partnership with NVIDIA.

两家公司正合作尝试将数据中心计算送入轨道。

The two companies are working together in an attempt to put data center computing into orbit.

SpaceX的股价在财报公布前，昨天一度上涨了大约10%。

SpaceX stock initially had risen roughly 10% yesterday in anticipation of the earnings.

不过，财报在盘后公布后，股价反而跌了8%。

However, after the earnings came out in after hours trading, the stock fell 8%.

今天我们就请专家来拆解一下SpaceX首次公开披露的一季度业绩。

So here to break down SpaceX's first quarter of publicly reported earnings.

我们连线的是晨星公司的股票分析师尼古拉斯·欧文斯。

We're speaking with Nicolas Owens, equity analyst at Morningstar.

尼古拉斯，谢谢你做客我们的节目。

Nicolas, thanks for joining us.

在营收方面，以及营业利润或亏损方面，这都比分析师预期的要好。

This was better than analysts had expected on the revenue side, also on the operating income or loss side.

你对SpaceX这个季度的表现怎么看？

What do you make of this quarter for SpaceX?

我想你指的是市场共识预期。

I think you're referring to consensus.

实际上，我的营收和营业利润率预测比实际结果高了2亿美元。

They actually came in $200,000,000 light on my revenue and operating margin forecast.

好的。

Okay.

我想说，有一点需要注意的是，首先，这是一个快速变化的业务，我们还不清楚这个业务的季节性，比如正常的第二季度应该是什么样子。

I'll say that one grain of salt is that we don't have a first of all, it's a it's a quickly kind of, you know, pivoting business, and we don't have a sense of what the seasonality of this business is in terms of what's a normal Q2 look like.

所以我觉得这里没有太多可以解读的。

So I don't think there's a huge much to be made there.

他们的资本支出也比我的预测多了大约110亿美元，所以我认为市场预期是一个好的季度，而他们也确实做到了。

They also spent about $11,000,000,000 more in CapEx than I forecast, so I think the anticipation was for a good quarter and that's what they delivered.

最大的变化在于AI收入和租赁协议的加速增长，我想我们之前讨论过，这些大多是在IPO时宣布的，所以实际上我认为与英伟达合作的公告有一些有趣的细节，因为之前他们说过要制造定制芯片，我理解这是很多想要建设AI基础设施的人的长期趋势，他们想要定制芯片来适应他们的计算和算法等等。

The big delta really is in the acceleration of AI revenue and rental agreements, which I think we've talked about, and those were mostly announced along with the IPO, so I actually think the announcement about the partnership with Nvidia has some interesting nuance in that previously they had said they wanted to make custom chips, which is what I understand to be kind of the the long term trend that a lot of people who want to build out all this AI infrastructure, they wanna tailor the chips to tailor the to to their com the computation and their algorithms and so forth.

今天的评论是，我们真的很喜欢这些英伟达芯片。

The comments today were, we really like these NVIDIA chips.

他们认为这些是最好的。

They we think they're the best ones.

我认为这几乎就像是，我们要买这些芯片然后出租，而不是强调为Grok定制。

I think that is almost like a, we're gonna buy those chips and rent them out, and it's less of an emphasis on the tailoring to to Grok.

关于你对资本支出的预期，你怎么看待这个业务亏损的部分？

In terms of your expectations for capital expenditures, I mean, what do you make of the money losing side of this business?

我是说，他们相比上个季度已经减少了亏损。

I mean, they have reduced their losses compared to last quarter.

上个季度，亏损简直离谱。

Last quarter, the losses were insane.

这个季度，亏损仍然很大，但似乎没那么离谱了。

This quarter, the losses are still crazy, but seemingly less insane.

你怎么看待他们的支出相对于实际收入的情况？

What do you make of the spending relative to the amount of money that they're actually generating on the revenue side?

嗯，他们的很多支出仍然被归类为研发费用。

Well a lot of what they're spending is still classified as R and D.

我是说，我看到一些项目，甚至销售和管理费用都增加了，你知道，资本支出虽然不体现在损益表上，但总体支出是增加的，所以，比如说研发和资本支出加在一起，你可以把这些看作是对公司未来的投资，他们在这方面投入巨大，这对这种项目来说是合适的，而且我认为这种投入是不稳定的，你知道，他们几乎提前了很多研发支出，而且就像你说的，去年他们的利润率极低，支出很高，所以某种程度上，我们看到的几乎是一个有利的比较，尤其是在IPO之后。

I mean I saw a few of the line items even for SG and A go up, you know admittedly the capex doesn't show up in the income statement, but the spending generally, right, so there's let's say R and D and capex together, you can think of those as investments in the future of the business, which they're doing hand over fist, which is appropriate for this type of project, and again I think it's lumpy, you know I think they almost pulled forward a lot of their r and d type spending, and they had, like you said, extremely low, margins, high spending last year, and so in a way, we're looking at, almost favorable comparison, post IPO.

总体水平，我是说，我们预计他们在一段时间内不会真正赚多少钱。

The overall level, I mean, we don't expect them really to make much money for a while.

这家公司的故事好像正在变成其他任何一家超大规模云服务商的故事，也就是说，一切都取决于AI这件事。

It seems like the story of this company is kind of morphing into the story of any other hyperscaler, which is that the entire thing depends on the AI thing.

而AI能否成功还是个未知数。

And the potential for AI to work is an open question.

他们的增长大部分来自那里。

The the that's where they're generating most of the their growth.

他们大概就是说公司未来会专注于这个。

That is kind of what they say that the company is gonna be about.

会专注于AI。

It's gonna be about AI.

但同时也是亏损堆积的地方。

But also that is where the losses are stacking up.

当我们看他们的业务到底有多可持续时，似乎他们亏损减少的原因是因为AI收入增加了。

And when we look at how sustainable their business actually is, it seems like the reason that their losses were a little less bad than they were before is because their AI revenue increased.

而AI收入增加的原因，可能是因为他们和Anthropic签了协议。

And the reason their AI revenue increased is probably because they inked a deal with Anthropic.

所以这就是为什么我对他们披露的一项内容非常感兴趣，那就是他们的客户集中度风险。

And then that's why I was very interested to see a disclosure that they included, which was their customer concentration risk.

他们告诉我们，公司总收入的38%来自两家公司，他们称之为客户A，占18%，客户B，占19.5%。

And what they told us is that 38% of the company's entire revenue comes from two companies, which they said were customer a, which makes up 18%, and customer b, which makes up 19 and a half percent.

我猜其中一个是Anthropic，那基本上是他们AI收入的大头，另一个可能是美国政府。

I assume one of those customers is Anthropic, and that's basically the bulk of their AI revenue, and maybe the other customer is the US government.

我今天看到头条新闻说，Anthropic正在从黑石集团借款或洽谈借款近400亿美元，用来从谷歌购买算力。

I'm seeing headlines today that Anthropic is borrowing or in talks to borrow nearly $40,000,000,000 from Blackstone in order to buy compute from Google.

那这是否意味着他们必须借数百亿美元来继续从SpaceX购买算力？

So does that mean they're gonna have to borrow tens of billions of dollars to keep buying compute from SpaceX?

很可能。

Probably.

我的意思是，他们可能不得不继续借钱。

I mean, they're probably gonna have to keep borrowing.

他们必须继续融资，因为显然，至少在尖端技术方面，盈利能力并不奏效。

They're gonna have to keep raising money because, clearly, the profitability isn't working, at least on the frontier side of things.

所以在我看来，确实存在一个真实的风险，就是你可能在一个季度里突然失去19%的收入，然后整个AI的故事就没了，或者至少这就是现在的集中度风险。

So it does seem to me at least that there is a real risk that you could have randomly in one quarter 19% of your revenue disappear overnight, and suddenly the entire AI thesis is gone, or at least that's the concentration risk right now.

看看股价，已经从每股225美元的高点大幅下跌了。

Just looking at the, the price, the stock has come crashing way down from its highs of $225 per share.

它被腰斩了。

It was cut in half.

那是我之前的预测之一。

That was one of my predictions.

我来敲钟庆祝一下。

I'll ring the bell.

我们现在处于一个更合理的价位，但肯定远未接近IPO前每股62美元的公平价值估计。

We're now at a more reasonable place, but certainly not anywhere close to your fair fair value estimate before the IPO of $62 per share.

它需要再跌一半才行。

It would need to get cut in half again.

你觉得现在的估值怎么样？

What do you make of the valuation at this point today?

看起来还是很高，而且基于今天的情况，我没有理由改变我的公允价值。

Still seems high, and I have, no reason based on today to change my fair value.

你知道，随着我们向前发展，假设我们获得了一些关于这些市场动态的新信息，我的意思是，我觉得你提到的那个情景，也许引用埃隆·马斯克的话，Anthropic的租金消失的可能性不是零。

You know, as as we move forward and and let's say gain new information about some of these market dynamics, I mean, I I I think the the scenario you're talking about, maybe to quote Elon Musk, there's a non zero chance that that Anthropic rent goes away.

所以你必须得记住这一点。

So you have to sort of keep that in mind.

而且我觉得你描述的那种情景，真的有点像某种崩溃，对吧？就像纸牌屋倒塌，或者所有这些。

And I think the scenario in which that you're describing is really sort of some kind of a collapse right a house of cards falling down or or some some you know all these.

成本融资交易被解除。

Cost funding deals being unwound.

我更多想的是，我有点想试着更，怎么说呢，中庸一点，说在一个模型里，我们处于这样的情景：现在我们正处于淘金热，这场疯狂的竞赛，去花钱、投资、建设、创造，即使商业模式还没有被证明，或者盈利能力还不存在。

I'm thinking more along the I'm kind of giving a little trying to be a little more, let's say, middle of the road and say, in in in a model where we're in scenarios where right now, we're in this gold rush, this this this fantastical race to spend and invest and build and and create even when the business model hasn't proven out or or the profitability isn't there.

我觉得很多人都在基于这个假设，或者说英伟达老大提出的心智模型，就是有五层价值蛋糕，而且从长远来看，价值应该归于最上面两层。

I think a lot of people are working on this assumption or or the model mental model put forth by by, the the head of NVIDIA that there's this five layers cake of value, and that over the very long term the value should accrue to the top two layers.

那就是产品和应用，今天看起来像Anthropic，尽管他们的利润表上不是这样，但这是理论。

That's products and apps which today looks like Anthropic even though that's not happening in terms of their bottom line, that's the theory.

所以这真的归结为我们认为AI会为人们做什么、不会做什么。如果它只是变成每个人电脑里的一个插件，就像当年的Microsoft Word一样，而且大家对别人生产力的期望都提高了，那是一种情景，我觉得是有可能的。

So it really boils down to to what we think AI is and isn't gonna do for people, if it's just gonna become a plug into everybody's computer sort of like Microsoft Word was, and and everyone's expectation of other people's productivity goes up, that's one scenario, that I think is plausible.

这不是大多数人谈论的那种情景，他们谈论的是数亿人失业之类的。

It's not the one most people are talking about where they're talking about, you know, hundreds of millions of people, being displaced and all this other stuff.

但即使按照你那种中立的分析，假设不会出现某种崩溃，价值会归于应用层，我……

But even with your middle of the road analysis where you assume that there wouldn't be some form of collapse, that the value would accrue to the application layer, I.

比如OpenAI和Anthropic，即使在那种假设下，你给公司的估值也只有现在的一半。

E, the OpenAI's and the Anthropix, even in that assumption, you still value the company at half of where it is today.

你给SpaceX的估值也只有现在的一半。

You value SpaceX at half of where it is today.

没错。

That's correct.

而且那是在他们像现在这样赚钱的情景下，靠这些我们姑且称为经济上吸引人或慷慨的租赁协议。

And that's running scenarios where mostly they are making money like they are now on these, let's call them, economically attractive or generous rental deals.

要真正成功，必须大规模扩展。如果SpaceX的LLM起飞并开始消耗更多自己的计算能力，讽刺的是，这会取代他们本来可以收取的租赁收入，所以他们必须不断生产更多，而这需要花钱，对吧？

It has to really, really scale up for it to work out is that if the LLM that that SpaceX has takes off and starts consuming more of their own computing capacity, ironically that displaces these rental incomes that they might otherwise be able to charge, and so they have to sort of keep making more of it and that costs money, right?

所以我觉得他们正在建设，或者我前几天看到一个头条新闻，说他们在亚利桑那州某个地方买地，你知道，就像另一个巨型设施，我记得在电话会议上他们谈到了到年底和到本十年末计划拥有多少吉瓦的电力，这意味着更多的地面投资。

So I think they're building an or I saw a headline the other day that they're buying land in somewhere Arizona, you know, like another colossus type installation that I think on the call that they talked about how many gigawatts they plan to have by the end of the year and by the end of the decade, and that implies more terrestrial investment.

所以他们继续扩大那个版图，最终他们想在太空做这件事。

So they're continuing to expand that footprint, eventually they want to do it in space.

他们必须非常快地做到这一点，才能两全其美，既能让他们的LLM得到广泛采用，又能出租给市场。

They have to do that really fast for them to be able to sort of have their cake and eat it too, have a very broad based adoption of the I, you know, the the LLM that they own, so to speak, and as well as renting out to the market.

好的。

Alright.

尼古拉斯·欧文斯是晨星公司的股票分析师。

Nicolas Owens is equity analyst at Morningstar.

尼古拉斯，我们感谢你的时间。

Nicolas, we appreciate your time.

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢。

Thank you.

黑石集团正在与Anthropic进行早期谈判，计划提供360亿美元的债务融资。

Blackstone is in early talks to provide $36,000,000,000 in debt financing to Anthropic.

这是根据彭博社的报道。

This is according to reporting from Bloomberg.

这笔贷款将用于资助Anthropic从谷歌租用AI芯片，这意味着Anthropic没有足够的资金自行购买谷歌的计算资源，因此不得不从黑石集团借数十亿美元，考虑到Anthropic已经筹集了这么多资金，这相当引人注目。

The loan will be used to fund Anthropic's leasing of AI chips from Google, which would imply that Anthropic doesn't have enough money to buy compute from Google on its own, so it has to borrow billions of dollars from Blackstone, which is quite remarkable when you consider how much money Anthropic has already raised.

该公司迄今已获得约1320亿美元的风险投资，而且就在几个月前又借了350亿美元，这基本上意味着1670亿美元都不足以覆盖他们的成本。

The company has received roughly a $132,000,000,000 in venture funding so far, and it's also borrowed another $35,000,000,000 just a couple of months ago, which basically means that a $167,000,000,000 isn't enough money to cover their costs.

他们还需要更多。

They need more.

同样值得注意的是，已经向Anthropic投资数十亿美元的公司，特别是谷歌。

It's also quite remarkable when you consider the company that already invested billions of dollars into Anthropic, specifically Google.

是的。

Yes.

谷歌在四月份承诺向Anthropic投资高达400亿美元，并立即注资100亿美元，这意味着即使谷歌电汇给Anthropic用于购买谷歌芯片的资金，也仍然不够。

Google committed to invest up to $40,000,000,000 in Anthropic back in April with an immediate cash injection of $10,000,000,000, which means that even the money that Google wired to Anthropic so that Anthropic could buy Google's chips, even that wasn't enough.

Anthropic还需要更多资金。

Anthropic needed more.

这为什么重要呢？

Why does this matter?

因为这表明这些前沿实验室的财务状况是多么不稳定。

Well, because it shows you just how financially unstable these frontier labs really are.

尽管有传言说Anthropic即将实现运营盈利，但所有迹象都表明该公司仍在亏损，而且亏损巨大。

Despite the rumors that Anthropic was about to hit operating profitability, all the signs are telling us that the company is still losing money and lots of it.

亏损如此之多，以至于连供应商给他们的钱都不足以支付他们还给供应商的成本。

So much money that even the money they were given by their vendor wasn't enough to cover the cost of sending that money back to them.

现在他们不得不借数百亿美元。

Now they're having to borrow to the tune of tens of billions of dollars.

结论很简单。

The takeaway is quite simple.

尽管炒作不断，但大语言模型业务仍然是一个高度不盈利的业务。

Despite the hype, the LLM business is still a highly unprofitable business.