债券发出全球通胀危机预警

本期节目由Alumni Ventures赞助播出。

Support for the show comes from Alumni Ventures.

我们之前说过，分散投资就像我们的防弹衣。

We've said it before, diversification is our Kevlar vest.

但你知道你的公开股票基金实际上有多集中吗？

But do you know how concentrated your public stock fund actually is?

少数几只带AI故事的超大盘股撑起了大部分涨幅。

A handful of mega cap stocks with an AI story are doing most of the work.

这可不是你想象中的分散投资，尤其是当大量价值创造发生在公司上市之前。

That's not the diversification you think, especially when so much value creation is happening before companies ever go public.

Alumni Ventures被《时代》和CB Insights评为美国前20大风投公司，它为合格投资者提供了一种聪明、简单的方式来构建蓝筹风投组合，并参与私募市场中正在发生的价值创造。

Alumni Ventures ranked a top 20 US venture firm by both Time and CB Insights gives accredited investors a smart, simple way to assemble a blue chip venture portfolio and participate in the value creation that is occurring in private markets.

你可以免费注册，查看每周的交易流，然后自己做决定。

You can sign up for free, see the weekly deal flow, and decide for yourself.

或者，你也可以直接向Alumni Ventures Foundation Fund投入一笔资金，获得一个包含约25笔私募风投交易的多元化投资组合。

Or write one check into the Alumni Ventures Foundation Fund for a diversified portfolio of about 25 private venture deals.

去 a.vc/propg 看看。

Go to a v.vc/propg.

这不是出售证券的要约。

Not an offer to sell securities.

风险投资涉及重大风险，包括投资本金的损失。

Venture capital involves substantial risk, including loss of capital invested.

更多信息请参阅披露文件和基金发行材料。

See disclosures and fund offering materials for more information.

本期节目由 BCX 赞助，BCX 是私人科技领域的公开股票代码。

Support for the show comes from BCX, the public ticker for private tech.

美国股市开启了历史上最伟大的财富创造浪潮，从底特律的工厂工人到奥马哈的农民。

The US stock market started history's greatest wave of wealth creation from factory workers in Detroit to farmers in Omaha.

任何人都能拥有伟大美国公司的一部分。

Anyone can own a piece of the great American companies.

但如今，我们最具创新性的公司保持私有状态的时间更长了，这意味着普通美国人直到现在才有机会参与其中。

But today, our most innovative companies are staying private longer, which means everyday Americans are missing out until now.

现在介绍VCX，一个面向私营科技公司的公开股票代码，现在你可以在任何买股票的地方买到它。

Introducing VCX, a public ticker for private tech, now available wherever you buy stocks.

访问getvcx.com了解更多信息。

Visit getvcx.com for more info.

就是getvcx.com。

That's getvcx.com.

投资前请仔细考虑投资材料，包括目标、风险、费用和开支。

Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses.

这些信息和其他信息可以在基金的招股说明书中找到，网址是getvcx.com。

This and other information can be found in the fund's prospectus at getvcx.com.

这是一次付费赞助。

This is a paid sponsorship.

因为不确定从哪里开始，所以一直拖延未完成的家装项目？

Avoiding your unfinished home projects because you're not sure where to start?

Thumbtack了解家装，所以你不用操心。

Thumbtack knows homes, so you don't have to.

不知道哑光漆和缎光漆有什么区别，或者烘干机里那个咔嗒声是怎么回事？

Don't know the difference between matte paint finish and satin or what that clunking sound from your dryer is?

有了Thumbtack，你不需要成为家居专家。

With Thumbtack, you don't have to be a home pro.

你只需要雇一个专家就行。

You just have to hire one.

你可以在App上雇佣顶级专业人士，查看价格估算，还能看评价。

You can hire top rated pros, see price estimates, and read reviews all on the app.

今天就下载吧。

Download today.

一万七。

17,000.

我要一个100码的。

I'll get a 100 size.

货币市场基金真是疯了。

Like, money market's mad.

如果金钱是邪恶的，那这栋楼就是地狱。

If money is evil, then that building is hell.

演出开始了。

Show goes up.

那个

The

人从来没看过

person never watched the

演出卖票。

show sell.

欢迎来到Prof G Markets。

Welcome to Prof G Markets.

我是Ed Elson。

I'm Ed Elson.

今天是9月3日。

It is September 3.

我们来看看昨天的市场行情。

Let's check-in on yesterday's market vitals.

主要股指上涨，止住了跌势。

The major indices rose, halting a sell off.

国债收益率仍处于多年高位。

Treasury yields remained at multiyear highs.

稍后我们会详细讨论。

More on that in just a moment.

布伦特原油的涨势放缓，但仍保持在每桶90美元以上。

Brent Crude's rally slowed, but it did stay above $90 per barrel.

最后，戴尔股价因AI服务器需求强劲，创下创纪录营收后大涨16%。

And finally, Dell shares soared 16% after posting record revenue due to AI server demand.

好的。

Okay.

还有什么其他消息？

What else is happening?

全球范围内，债券市场正经历多年来最糟糕的时期。

Around the world, bond markets are having their worst stretch in years.

日本十年期国债收益率三年来首次达到3%。

Japan's ten year yield hit 3% for the first time in three decades.

德国十年期国债收益率创下2011年以来的最高水平。

Germany's is at its highest since 2011.

法国十年期国债收益率创下2008年以来的最高水平。

France's is at its highest since 2008.

英国三十年借款成本回到上世纪九十年代的水平，而美国三十年国债收益率近期也达到了金融危机以来的最高点。

British thirty year borrowing costs are back at levels last seen in the nineteen nineties, and The US thirty year yield recently hit its highest level since before the financial crisis.

这次全球抛售反映了投资者现在不得不面对的无数担忧，包括能源价格上涨和因伊朗战争导致的通胀高企、政府债务水平不可持续、美联储的鹰派态度，以及为支持人工智能建设而发行的大量债务。

This global sell off reflects the countless worries that investors are now forced to reckon with, including climbing energy prices and hot inflation due to the war in Iran, unsustainable levels of government debt, hawkish sentiment from the Federal Reserve, and also the enormous amounts of debt that is now being issued to fund the AI build out.

正如我们本周早些时候讨论的，财政部长斯科特·贝森特试图压低收益率，但失败了。

As we discussed earlier this week, secretary Scott Besant tried to bring yields down and failed.

所以，投资者面临的大问题是这样的。

And so the big question for investors is the following.

如果收益率继续上升，会发生什么？

What will happen if yields keep rising?

为了帮助回答这个问题，我们请到了NFJ投资集团的首席投资官约翰·莫瑞。

Here to help answer this question, we are speaking with John Mowrey, chief investment officer at NFJ Investment Group.

约翰，很高兴再次见到你。

John, it's great to see you again.

我先问一个比较宽泛的问题：当你现在看债券市场，看这波持续到本周的抛售，你觉得债券市场现在到底想告诉我们什么？

I'll just start with kind of a broad question, which is when you look at the bond markets right now, when you look at this sell off, which has continued into the week, what do you think the bond market is really trying to tell us right now?

艾德，很高兴见到你。

Ed, great to see you.

我觉得实际上，你知道，有两个记分牌。

So I think there's really you know, there's two scoreboards.

一个是股票市场，一个是债券市场。

There's the equity market and there's the bond market.

而且它们之间有互动。

And they both have interactions.

在债券市场这边，很明显大家担心的是赤字和债务。

On the bond market side, there's clear concern about deficits and debt.

但我想说的是，十五年前，瑞士、日本、美国这些国家的赤字和债务水平相对于名义GDP来说其实也挺高的。

But what I would say is that, you know, the deficits and debt levels were pretty high fifteen years ago as well relative to nominal GDP across Switzerland, Japan, The US.

我觉得今天真正的不同在于，情况发生了根本性的转变，因为长期以来投资者都认为通胀已经死了，全球化也确实在很大程度上压制了通胀。

I think the real difference today is there's been a regime shift because for so long investors thought inflation was dead and globalization really had kind of quenched that.

而现在，我们正在经历一个转变，Ed，我觉得我们已经从“最便宜最重要”转向了“最安全最重要”。

And today we have a shift that's going on, Ed, and I think we've moved from the cheapest being the most important to the safest.

这也不是说就是非黑即白，而是有一个连续的过程。

And that's not that it's a binary situation, but there's a continuum.

而且我觉得随着这种变化渗透到供应链里，通胀某种程度上成了新常态的一部分，因为就好像我们过去为了买到便宜的东西，跳过了交保险费这一步。

And I think that as that trickles into supply chains, you know, inflation is part of kind of the new normal a little bit, because it's almost like we skipped the insurance premium for getting everything so cheap in years past.

在这个通胀升高的新常态里，伊朗的战争又扮演了多大的角色呢？

To what extent does the war in Iran have a role to play in this new normal of higher elevated inflation?

是单纯因为这个，还是同时有好几个因素在起作用？

Is it that, or is it multiple things at the same time?

嗯，我觉得伊朗战争确实是其中一个关键因素。

Well, I think the war in Iran is is is one key component of it.

我是说，能源价格肯定在影响经济的很多方面，而且它直接影响到消费者。

Mean, energy prices are definitely affecting so many components of the economy, and it's something that touches the consumer very directly.

但是，你知道，高油价只是其中的一部分。

But, you know, the the the high oil prices is just one part of this.

你知道，我还是想回到供应链重组这个话题，Ed。

You know, again, I'd kinda go back to the reordering of supply chains, Ed.

我是说，你想啊，我们以前非常依赖中国的廉价出口和廉价劳动力。

I mean, if you think about, you know, we used to rely heavily on China for cheap exports, cheap labor.

那基本上就是把劳动力通缩进口到了美国。

That was basically importing labor deflation to The US.

所以现在有很多因素在推高通胀。

So there's a lot of things that are that are pulling up inflation today.

石油肯定是其中之一。

Oil's definitely part of that.

我觉得对投资者和美联储来说，挑战在于加息未必能解决霍尔木兹海峡的问题。

I think the challenge for investors and for the Fed is raising rates won't necessarily fix the Strait Of Hormuz.

它也不一定能理顺中国的供应链。

It doesn't necessarily fix the supply chains in China.

所以毫无疑问，伊朗局势正在推高通胀，但如果你看全球债券收益率，会发现这是一个更宏观的现象。

So there's no doubt that what's going on in Iran is is pushing inflation higher, but I think it's a bigger phenomenon that's going on when you look at bond yields across the globe.

当我们观察预测市场时，今年加息的概率现在达到了77%。

When we look at the prediction markets, there's now a 77% chance of a rate hike this year.

凯文·沃尔什和美联储的鹰派立场越来越明显了。

We're getting increasingly hawkish sentiment from Kevin Walsh and the Federal Reserve.

你预期他会加息吗？是不是打算最终把通胀率压回到2%？

Is your expectation that he's going to raise rates, and is the is the plan to essentially try to get to 2%?

说实话，现在这做法有点离谱。

It seems kind of crazy at this point.

我们离目标已经差得太远太久了，但真的还要继续硬着头皮去追那个美联储的目标吗？

We've been so far from the target for so long, but are we actually going to continue to try to get to that Federal Reserve target?

你知道吗，这是个很好的问题。

You know, it's a great question.

其实，债券市场已经帮美联储做了很多收紧工作。

You know, the bond markets have done a lot of tightening for the Fed.

我是说，你知道，疫情期间利率是负的，对吧。

I mean, you know, you had negative rates, right, back in COVID.

现在利率已经涨到最高水平，有些地方，比如日本，是自九六年以来的最高点，就像你提到的。

Now you've got the highest rates going back to, in some cases, like in Japan since 'ninety six, as you cited.

所以，关于美联储即将做出的利率决定，我想说的是，他们确实处境艰难，因为两年期国债收益率比联邦基金利率高出大约60个基点。

So, you know, what I would say about, you know, the Fed's decision coming up with the rates is yes, they are in a tough spot because the two year bond yield is roughly 60 basis points ahead of the Fed funds rate.

这对他们来说是个信号。

So that's a signal for them.

但我觉得他们知道其中的复杂性，那就是如果加息，肯定会增加资本成本。

But I think they know the complication, and that is that if they raise rates, that is going to definitely increase the cost of capital.

资本成本已经上升了。

The cost of capital is already up.

大家都知道现在的房贷利率是多少。

I mean, everyone knows what the mortgage rates are.

大家都知道今天买辆新车要花多少钱。

Everyone knows what it costs to go, you know, buy a new car today.

所以资本成本已经更高了。

So you already have cost of capital higher.

我觉得市场上真正引人注目的动态是资本成本上升了，这是个逆风。

I think the real fascinating dynamic in the market is cost of capital is up, and that's a headwind.

但盈利韧性和盈利增长是顺风。

But earnings resiliency and earnings growth is a tailwind.

而目前，盈利增长正在战胜资本成本带来的逆风。

And right now, the earnings growth is beating the the headwind, if you will, from the cost of capital.

所以，他们确实有可能加息，但我的预期是，这对他们来说会是个艰难的结果，因为我不认为加息真的能解决问题。

So, you know, it's it's plausible for sure that they could raise rates, but my expectation would be that it's gonna be a tough a tough outcome for them because I don't think that's actually going to fix the problem.

还有，Ed，如果我可以再分享一个观察，想想之前的利率，它们曾经是负的，我想对此做个评价。

And, Ed, maybe if I can share one other observation, You think back to where rates were, they were negative, and I just wanna make kind of evaluation comment around this.

我觉得大家当时并没有真正意识到自己在付多少钱。

I don't think people fully appreciated what they were paying.

我们刚刚经历了一场债券泡沫的破裂。

We just went through a bond bubble bursting.

对吧？

Okay?

当十年期国债收益率只有50个基点时，那相当于为那个资产支付200倍的现金流。

When you have the ten year bond yield at 50 basis points, that's like paying 200 times cash flow for that asset.

所以人们当时为债券支付了极高的倍数。

So people were paying enormous multiples for bonds.

所以我们真正做的其实是让债券市场回归正常。

And so what we've really done is normalize the bond market.

大家都以为会永远那样，但通胀有点苏醒过来了，真的把债券收益率重新调整到了历史上更正常的水平。

Everyone thought it was gonna stay that way forever, but inflation has kind of woken up, and it's really rerated bond yields back to levels that are really more normal if you look at history.

你的意思是，基本上肯·沃尔什在试图解决这个问题，但他可能解决不了。

I mean, you you say that basically, Ken Walsh is trying to fix this, but he might not be able to fix it.

美联储对伊朗发生的事情其实没什么能做的。

There's not much that you can do at the Federal Reserve to fix what's happening in Iran.

但斯科特·贝森试图去解决这个问题，他试图通过回购来解决，但效果并不好。

But Scott Besson has tried to fix it, and he tried to fix it with buybacks, and it didn't really work.

或者说可能就管用了几天，然后就不行了。

Or maybe it did for a couple of days, and then it didn't.

你怎么看这个回购策略，作为降低美国借贷成本的一种手段？

What do you make of of the buyback strategy as a as a means to lower borrowing costs in America.

这个策略是对的吗？

Is it the right strategy?

还是错的？

Is it the wrong strategy?

你怎么看？

What do you think of it?

财政部的职责是为美国融资，但关于在收益率曲线的哪个位置发行债务，并没有明确的规定。

Treasury's job is to finance America, but there's no rule book on where on the curve the Treasury can issue that debt.

这真是个很有意思的话题。

It's a really fascinating topic.

三十年期国债发行多少合适呢？

How many thirty year bonds is the right number?

十年期呢？

How many ten year?

财政部实际上是在说，我们更愿意在曲线的短端来为美国更多的债务融资。

What the Treasury is effectively doing is they're saying, okay, we would rather finance more of America's debt at the short end of the curve.

所以这基本上就像给美国的债务做了一次浮动利率抵押贷款，需要更频繁地再融资，而不是固定利率的三十年贷款。

So it's basically like taking out an arm on America's debt, an adjustable rate mortgage so you have to refinance more versus a thirty year fixed.

所以这是他们的权利。

So it's their prerogative.

他们可以这么做。

They can do it.

你知道，我觉得这跟2011年的“扭转操作”相比规模相对较小，当时美联储介入说，嘿，我们要在长期端买回债券，然后卖出短期债券。

You know, I think that it's relatively small compared to what was Operation Twist back in 2011 when the Fed stepped in and said, hey, we're gonna buy bonds back on the long end and sell short term.

所以，从20亿到40亿，相对于美国政府资产负债表的总体规模来说，这其实是个相对较小的动作，但他有权这么做。

So it's a relatively small move from 2 to 4,000,000,000 when you think about the total size of the balance sheet of the US government, but it's in his prerogative to do so.

他因此受到批评，但我想我还是想再抛出那个思考题：美国政府应该持有多少三十年期债券才是合适的数字。

He's getting criticized for it, but I guess I would just kind of throw it again kind of the thought piece on what's the right number for thirty year bonds that the US government should hold.

而每当他决定去回购那些债券时，他实际上是在买回那些低利率的债券，然后换成高利率的债券。

And whenever he decides he's gonna go out and buy back those bonds, what he's effectively doing is he's buying those back and he is exchanging what was at a lower interest rate for something that's at a higher interest rate.

所以如果利率下降，这可能是好事，但在我看来这有点像主动管理，这对财政部来说是个有趣的定位。

So that could be good if rates fall, but it looks a little bit like active management to me, which is an interesting role for the treasury to be in.

你之前提到，美国的债务状况，以及整个发达世界的债务状况，在名义上或相对于GDP来说，其实和以前没有太大区别。

You mentioned earlier that the the debt situation in America and kind of across the the rest of the advanced world, isn't that much different compared to what it was, on a nominal basis or compared to GDP at least.

我在想，也许现在投资者担心的部分原因是，这件事拖得越久，就越清楚我们的政府其实并不真正在乎财政责任。

I wonder if perhaps part of the concern for investors right now is that it seems like the the longer this drags on, the clearer it becomes that our government just doesn't really care about fiscal responsibility.

比如，如果我们达到更高的数字，现在美国国债已经达到40万亿美元了。

Like, if we get to the higher numbers we get to, now we're at $40,000,000,000,000, in US national debt.

这件事拖得越久，我们就越开始意识到，好吧。

The longer this goes on, the more we start to realize, okay.

没人会去解决这个问题。

No one's gonna fix this.

这种情况永远不会改变。

This is never going to change.

也许这就是市场正在定价的担忧。

And perhaps that might be the concern that is being priced in.

这让你担心吗？

Is that a concern to you?

你觉得，在这个政府任期内，我们的债务和不断上升的赤字情况怎么样？

Do you see, our debt, and our rising deficit under this administration?

他之前说过，至少平衡预算是一件很重要的事，这也是他竞选纲领的一部分。

After he said that this was an important thing to balance the budget at least, that was, part of his platform.

这让你真的感到担忧吗？

Is that a real concern for you?

毫无疑问。

No doubt.

我的意思是，你看。

I mean, look.

我是说，债务还在继续膨胀。

I mean, the debt continues to expand.

但如果你想想现代经济中我们如何处理债务，你知道，就是通过通货膨胀。

But, if you think about how we deal with debt in kind of the, you know, the modern economy, it's through inflation.

实际上，现实是我们用更多的美元来偿还债务，因为美元和所有货币都会随着时间不断贬值。

I mean, the reality is that we repay our debt with many dollars because the dollar and all currencies continue to depreciate over time.

而且大家都明白这一点。

And everyone understands this.

每个人都知道一杯咖啡十年前、二十年前、三十年前的价格。

Everyone knows what a cup a cup of coffee cost ten years ago, twenty years ago, thirty years ago.

所以我们应对这个问题的方式就是通货膨胀。

So the way that we deal with this is inflation.

这是有史以来对全球人口征收的最隐蔽的税，而且你可以慢慢看到它的影响。

It's the most insidious tax on the global population that's ever been invented, and you can see it very slowly.

而且这是一种累退税，埃德，所以它对所有人都有影响。

And it's a regressive tax, Ed, so it taxes everyone.

那我们能控制住它吗？

So are we gonna be able to contain it?

你看国债的年复合增长率，大约是7.6%，而且这个增长率相当稳定。

I mean, if you look at the CAGR of the national debt, it's about 7.6%, and that CAGR is pretty consistent.

所以我们喜欢花钱。

So we like to spend money.

不幸的是，当税收不够，支出超过收入时，你就得发行债务，而市场也容忍这种情况。

And unfortunately, when you don't pull enough in taxes and you spend more than you bring in, you've got to issue debt and the markets tolerate it.

特别是在美国，市场容忍它，因为我们是全球最强、流动性最好、最深的金融市场。

And particularly in The USA, they tolerate it because we're the strongest, most liquid, deepest market in the world.

但偿还债务的方式是通过通货膨胀。

But the way that it's paid for is through inflation.

而且我觉得，埃德，多年来，全球化掩盖了这一点。

And I think that for years, Ed, it was masked by globalization.

现在这个格局正在被重新调整，我觉得这恰恰说明，嘿，也许那只是暂时的。

And now that that's being reordered, I think that it's revealing that, hey, maybe that was temporary.

也许通胀已经永久性地存在于这个体系里了，它是我们财政和货币政策带来的副产品。

Maybe inflation is permanently in the system and it's a byproduct of what we've done fiscally and monetarily.

但这也是你为便利所付出的代价。

But it's also the price that you should pay for convenience.

我是说，再回到你之前提到的伊朗局势，是的，石油市场很可能会计入新的风险溢价，因为你想啊，如果霍尔木兹海峡被封锁了，那问题就大了。

I mean, you look at, again, going back to what you said about what's going on in Iran, yeah, the oil markets are probably gonna price in a new risk premium because it's like, hey, if the strait gets shut down, that's a big problem.

而且当供应链是即时制的时候，大家都习惯了在需要的时候刚好拿到货，无论是分销商还是生产环节，所有人都习惯了没有通胀。

And when you have a just in time supply chain where everyone was used to getting things just when they needed them for their, you know, distributors and for their production, everyone got used to no inflation.

我觉得这正是当初形成债券泡沫的原因。

I think that's what created kind of the bond bubble.

没有通胀，你就可以超支消费，还能以极低的成本发行债务。

You have no inflation, you can spend more than you need, and you can issue debt very cheaply.

而现在，我们不得不为这一切买单。

And now we are having to pay that bill.

但有趣的是，如果你告诉我日本国债收益率会在三四年内从负利率涨到百分之三，我会觉得市场会很难熬。

And what's fascinating though is if you told me that rates on JGBs would go from negative to three over the course of of three or four years, I would have thought the markets would have had a really tough time.

但日经指数却创了历史新高。

The Nikkei is at all time highs.

标普指数也创了历史新高。

The S and P is at all time highs.

这是为什么呢？

Why is that?

因为企业的盈利压过了资本成本的影响。

It's because earnings are overpowering what's going on with the cost of capital.

所以我觉得美联储需要密切关注这一点，因为如果他们加息，减缓经济增长，情况可能会更棘手，毕竟最终是美国公司在雇佣所有员工。

And so I think the Fed needs to pay close attention to that because to the extent they raise rates and to the extent they slow down growth in the economy, it could be a much more challenging situation because it's ultimately The US companies that employ all the people.

假设收益率继续上涨，甚至更高。

Say yields continue to rise even higher.

它们这周几乎一直在涨，实际上整个月都在涨。

They've they've been rising all week, practically all month.

假设它继续上涨。

Say it continues.

这对投资者意味着什么？

What does that mean for investors?

那对普通美国人又意味着什么？

And then what does it mean for everyday Americans?

嗯，我觉得如果你看看资本成本的持续上升，毫无疑问，这又是一种累退税，因为它影响到经济阶梯上下的每个人。

Well, I think that if you look at the continual rise in the cost of capital, there's no question that that is, again, a regressive tax, if you will, because that's affecting everyone up and down the economic scale.

不过，就市场影响而言，埃德，关键还是在于资本成本何时开始削弱盈利韧性。

In terms of how it affects the market though, Ed, it's really gonna come down to when does the cost of capital start to pull away the earnings resilience.

市场之所以能承受更高的利率，是因为我们可能正处于历史上最大的资本支出周期之中。

And the reason that the market has tolerated higher rates is because we're probably sitting inside the biggest CapEx cycle in history.

而这正在渗透到经济的许多领域，并且与人工智能的建设密切相关。

And so that's trickling to so many areas of the economy, and it's absolutely tied to the AI build out.

因此，这使得经济能够承受更高的利率。

And so that has allowed the economy to tolerate higher rates.

所以没人确切知道那个数字会是多少，当它开始侵蚀盈利的持久性时。

So no one knows exactly what that number will be when that starts to kind of erode the durability of earnings.

但只要我们继续这个资本支出周期，那就能让盈利保持韧性，也能让市场保持韧性。

But as long as we continue in this CapEx cycle, then that's gonna allow earnings to be resilient, and that's gonna allow the markets to be resilient.

所以现在真正的拉锯战就是在资本成本和盈利韧性之间。

And so that's really the tug of war right now between cost of capital and earnings resiliency.

说实话，你知道，应对方式就是投资，因为你想站在那些能把通胀转嫁出去的公司一边。

And to be honest, you know, the way you deal with it is you invest because you wanna be on the side of the companies that can pass through that inflation.

这真的是美国人拥有的最好礼物。

That's really the best gift that Americans have.

我们有一个非常开放和自由化的市场，任何人都可以参与。

We have a very open and liberalized market, and anybody can do it.

我的孩子也能做到。

My kids can do it.

你可以开个账户。

You can open an account.

等你攒够了钱，就可以投个500美元进去。

You can stick in $500 once you get that saved up.

你可以开始投资。

You can start it.

我也是这么教我的孩子们的。

And I've done that with my kids.

我给他们开了投资账户，涨跌的时候都给他们看。

I've started investment accounts, I've shown them when it's up and down.

所以我觉得，这就是美国人应该应对通胀的方式——再回到那个话题，通胀可以说是全球经济史上最阴险的税了。

So I I think that that is how Americans should try to tackle, again, going back to the most insidious tax ever put on on on the global economy, which is inflation.

你必须成为投资者，站到正确的一边。

You need to be an investor and get on the right side of the equation.

约翰·莫里是NFJ投资集团的首席投资官。

John Mowrey is chief investment officer at NFJ Investment Group.

约翰，很高兴见到你。

John, it's always good to see you.

谢谢你的时间。

Thank you for your time.

谢谢你，Ed。

Thank you, Ed.

休息之后，我们将深入了解OpenAI。

After the break, an inside look at OpenAI.

本期节目的支持来自Vanta。

Support for the show comes from Vanta.

当你为一家快速扩张的公司负责安全时，风险只会越来越高。

When you run security for a company that's scaling fast, the stakes just keep climbing.

更多的合规框架、更多的供应商、更多的风险，还有董事会希望在一个地方看到所有信息。

More compliance frameworks, more vendors, more risk, and a board that wants to see it all in one place.

但你的合规数据可能分散在各处，控制措施在一个工具里，供应商风险在另一个工具里，客户承诺则埋在合同里。

But your compliance data can be all over the place, controls in one tool, vendor risk in another, customer commitments buried in contracts.

你的团队不得不花更多时间把这些拼凑起来，而花在管理项目上的时间就更少了。

Your team has to spend more time stitching it all together and less time running the program.

而且每个季度，你都是根据上个季度的数据来做决策。

And every quarter, you're basing decisions on last quarter's data.

Vanta 把所有东西都连接起来了。

Vanta connects it all.

它那市场领先的代理信任平台，专为企业级规模打造，有 400 多个集成，还能持续监控。

Its market leading agentic trust platform is built for enterprise scale with 400 plus integrations and continuous monitoring.

Vanta 自动化收集证据，处理真正重要的风险，并且按照审计师的要求来组织你的审计工作。

Vanta automates evidence collection, services the risk that matter, and organizes your audit around your auditor's requirements.

而且那个 Vanta 代理全天候工作，基于完整的项目背景，所以不会有任何疏漏。

And that Vanta agent works around the clock from full program context, so nothing slips through the cracks.

这些数据都能证明这一点。

The numbers back this up.

Vanta 在三年内能带来 526% 的投资回报率，三个月就能回本。

Vanta delivers a 526% return on investment over three years and pays for itself in three months.

超过 16000 家公司信任 Vanta，包括 Snowflake、Atlassian 和 RAM。

Vanta's trusted by more than 16,000 companies, including Snowflake, Atlassian, and RAM.

更多信息请访问 vanta.com/markets。

Learn more at vanta.com/markets.

拼写是 vanta.com/markets。

That's spelled vanta.com/markets.

你们公司用了多少家第三方供应商？

How many third party vendors does your company use?

20家？

20?

200家？

200?

多亏了AI。

Thanks to AI.

你们团队这周可能又加了三个。

Someone on your team probably added three more this week.

而你的安全负责人完全不知道。

And your security lead has no idea.

传统的第三方风险管理已经跟不上了。

Traditional third party risk management can't keep up.

Vanta 能自动为每个供应商提供持续覆盖，让你真正了解自己的技术栈里有什么，以及该怎么应对。

Vanta gives you continuous coverage across every vendor automatically so you actually know what's in your stack and what to do about it.

AI 开启，风险关闭。

AI on, risk off.

Vanta.com/tprm。

Vanta.com/tprm.

你听到那个声音了吗？

Do you hear that?

那个声音，对吧？

That sound, right?

那意味着夏天正式来了。

That means that summer's officially here.

这意味着成年人会冲到街上，去买一个卡通形状的冷冻甜点。

It means that grown adults just sprint into the street for a frozen dessert shaped like a cartoon.

但这个夏天，Mint Mobile有个更好的优惠。

But this summer, Mint Mobile has a better treat.

所有套餐，包括无限流量，每月只要15美元。

Every plan, including unlimited, is $15 a month.

而且不像冰淇淋，它不会滴到手腕上，也不会看起来和图片完全不一样。

And unlike ice cream, it won't, drip down your wrist or look nothing like the picture.

有人有现金吗？

Does anyone have any cash?

去mintmobile.com/switch试试吧。

Give it a try at mintmobile.com/switch.

需要预付45美元三个月，90美元六个月，或180美元十二个月，相当于每月15美元，税费另计。

Upfront payment of $45 for three months, $90 for six months, or $180 for twelve month plan required, $15 per month equivalent, taxes and fees extra.

新客户优惠，适用于初始套餐，流量超过50GB。

New customer offer for initial plan per moment, greater than 50 gigabytes.

网络繁忙时可能会变慢。

May slow when network is busy.

详情请见条款。

See terms.

欢迎回到Prof G Markets。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

OpenAI这几周经历了不少波折。

OpenAI has had a tumultuous few weeks.

就像我们前几天讨论的，七月份大约有700个恶意OpenAI代理入侵了机器学习平台Hugging Face，据报道，OpenAI直到后来才知道这件事。

As we discussed a couple of days ago, roughly 700 rogue OpenAI agents hacked the machine learning platform Hugging Face in July, and reportedly, OpenAI didn't know about it until later.

与此同时，公司正面临多起法律诉讼。

Meanwhile, the company is facing multiple legal battles.

周一，苹果公司加大了对OpenAI的商业机密诉讼力度，向联邦法官表示OpenAI正在积极销毁证据。

On Monday, Apple escalated its trade secrets lawsuit against the company, telling a federal judge that OpenAI is actively destroying evidence.

与此同时，本周又新增了30起诉讼，涉及不列颠哥伦比亚省的一起校园枪击案，该案造成8人死亡。

Meanwhile, 30 new lawsuits were filed this week over a school shooting in British Columbia, which killed eight people.

诉讼称，OpenAI本可以帮助阻止这起事件，因为嫌疑人曾频繁与ChatGPT互动。

The suits alleged that OpenAI could have helped to prevent this as the suspected shooter had heavily interacted with ChatGPT.

这一切都发生在OpenAI即将发布其最新模型Astra之际，据说这是首个具备关键网络能力的模型。

This all comes amid the anticipated release of OpenAI's newest model Astra, which is reportedly the first to have critical cyber abilities.

所以，为了深入了解OpenAI的这些新闻，我们请到了Alex Heath，他刚刚与OpenAI的CEO Sam Altman进行了多次一对一的采访。

So to get into all of this OpenAI news, we are speaking with Alex Heath, who just sat down for multiple one on one interviews with the CEO of OpenAI, Sam Altman.

他还为了封面故事采访了公司里的二十多个人。

He also spoke to more than 20 people at the company for a cover story.

他刚刚为《时代》杂志写了这篇文章。

He just wrote for Time Magazine.

没有人比Alex更了解OpenAI内部的情况了。

Few people know more about what's going on at OpenAI than Alex.

Alex是《Sources》新闻通讯的作者，他刚刚推出了新的《Sources》播客。

Alex is author of the Sources newsletter, and he just launched the new Sources podcast.

Alex，感谢你加入我们。

Alex, thank you for joining us.

很高兴见到你。

Good to see you.

我们先从你和山姆的采访说起吧，这周刚发布的。

Let's just start with your interview with Sam, which was just released this week.

我看了那个采访。

I watched the interview.

很多方面都特别有意思。

Fascinating on many levels.

我们待会儿会深入聊。

We'll get into it.

但你最大的收获是什么？

But what were your top takeaways?

哎呀，天哪。

Oh, man.

谢谢你，艾德。

Thank you, Ed.

我很感激。

I appreciate that.

对。

Yeah.

我最近在OpenAI和Sam那里花了很多时间，我们聊了很多话题。

I I've been spending a lot of time at OpenAI and with Sam, we and covered a lot of ground in the conversation.

有几件事特别突出。

A couple things stood out.

他们真的在以前所未有的方式放慢前沿研究的步伐，这反映了他们看到的一些尚未发布的能力。

They are really slowing down Frontier Research in a way that is unprecedented in the industry, speaks to the capabilities they're seeing that have not yet been released.

他们即将推出下一代模型Astra，我在为《时代》杂志封面故事做报道时已经见过，但外部还没有人用过。

They have Astra, their next family of models coming, which I've gotten to see as part of my reporting process for the Time cover story you were talking about, but no one externally has used yet.

而且他们看到的——我当时正好在办公室——是在Astra之后的更前沿的训练运行，正如Sam告诉我的，出现了不同程度的“不对齐”，用AI的话说就是AI没有按预期行事。

And what they saw, and I was actually in the office as this was happening, was even further frontier training runs that they have after Astra were showing, as Sam put it to me, you know, various degrees of misalignment, which is AI speak for the AI is not doing what it's supposed to.

你在Hugging Face上也能看到这种情况。

And you see that with Hugging Face.

对吧？

Right?

就是大家都知道的Hugging Face被黑事件。

The hack on Hugging Face that everyone knows about.

但我觉得这说明了，随着这些模型变得越来越自主，能在浏览器里操作、接管电脑，安全风险会大幅上升。

But I think it speaks to as these models become more agentic, doing things in browsers, taking over computers, the security risks go way up.

而OpenAI的研究团队决定——这家公司本质上还是研究文化主导的，即使有那么多商业上的东西我们后面会聊到——那个团队推动他们放慢脚步，他们也确实这么做了。

And OpenAI's research team decided, which that company is still very much a research culture led company, Even with all the commercial stuff that we'll get into, that team has pushed them to slow down, and they are.

话虽如此，他们也在激烈的模型竞赛中。

That said, they're also in this fierce model race.

他们想尽快把Astra推出来。

They wanna get Astra out the door as soon as possible.

我觉得随时都可能发布。

I think it's gonna be any day now.

那会是一个非常强大、能力很强的模型。

It's gonna be a very powerful capable model.

然后我们还聊了不少别的事情。

And then we touched on a bunch of stuff.

我们聊了最近高层离职的事。

We touched on recent leadership departures.

我们聊了IPO、Anthropic的竞争，还有和乔尼·艾维合作的设备项目。

We touched on the IPO, anthropic competition, the device work with Johnny Ive.

他告诉我他们打算做一个人形机器人。

He told me they were gonna make a humanoid robot.

要聊的内容还真不少。

There's a lot to get lot to go over.

你问了他关于Hugging Face事件的事，以及它在多大程度上是安全漏洞还是意外。

You asked him about the Hugging Face incident and the extent to which it was a security breach, an accident.

这是他对此的回应。

Here's what he had to say in response.

这肯定是一次安全失误。

It's a safety failure for sure.

问题是，你该多大程度上把它理解为安全问题还是对齐问题。

There's a question of how much you're supposed to understand that is a security issue or alignment issue.

我觉得这件事大多被报道成安全问题。

I think it's mostly been reported on as a security issue.

我个人更倾向于把它理解为对齐问题。

I think I understand it personally more as an alignment issue.

但不管怎样，那确实是个糟糕的事，我不想为此找借口，因为我不认为那是解决问题的办法。

But in any case, yes, that was a bad thing, and I don't want us to make excuses for that because I don't believe that's how we fix it.

我们越是这样想，比如‘哦，我们可爱的小模型，它绝不会做坏事’。

The more we're like, oh, our nice little model, he would never do anything bad.

就像，你知道的，只是评估工具配置出了点小问题，没什么大不了的，挺好的。

Like, you know, it was just a little evals harness misconfiguration, no problem, nice

小模型。

little model.

如果我那样说的话，那我觉得你应该会觉得，‘哇，这真的很糟糕’。

That'd be a very If I said something like that, then I think you should be like, woah, this is really bad.

看起来他的观点是，我们认识到了问题，也承认了问题，所以问题就没那么严重了。

It seemed as though his view is we're recognizing the problem, we've omitted the problem, so it's not that much of a problem.

你怎么看他的评论？

What did you make of his comments?

我能理解那种看法。

I can see that take.

我觉得他是在暗讽其他实验室，你知道的，那些实验室吹嘘模型的能力，但出了事之后就不怎么提了，或者干脆掩盖过去。

I think he was throwing a little shade at other labs who, you know, hype up the capabilities of the models, and then when stuff happens, don't really talk about it or kinda throw it under the rug.

我觉得他解释那番话的时候，背后的意思更多是这个。

I think that was more of the meaning behind that statement he was talk when he was explaining that.

而且，你知道，采访里还有一段，他说人们叫他‘YOLO CEO’什么的。

And, you know, there's another part of the interview where he's like, people call me the YOLO CEO.

他指的是去年Dario Amade在一次会议上说过的话。

He was referring to like something that Dario Amade said at a conference last year.

对。

Yeah.

而且你承认了这一点，然后他又拒绝承认自己说过那些话，我觉得也挺有意思的。

And Which you acknowledged, and then he sort of refused to admit that that's what he was saying, which I also thought was interesting.

我不会承认也不会否认我在说谁。

I won't I won't acknowledge or deny or not deny who I'm talking about.

然后你就说，对。

And you're like, yeah.

你就是在说他。

You're talking about him.

好吧，你看。

Well, I look.

我觉得山姆和达里奥，他们俩总是互相惦记着。

Sam and Dario, I think, live rent free in each other's heads always.

这很明显。

It's very apparent.

但我觉得，你知道，我不是说这是事实，但如果你是山姆，Anthropic 可能在未来几周内会有史上最大的 IPO。

But I think, you know, I I'm not saying this for a fact, but I think if you were Sam, Anthropic's about to have maybe the biggest IPO of all time in the coming weeks.

如果我是山姆，而你因为担心对齐风险而放慢前沿研究的速度，那出去当安全公司可能是个很好的公关策略。

If I'm Sam and you're slowing down Frontier Research for a good reason because you have concerns about the alignment risks, it's probably like a a good PR move to go out there and be the safety company.

对吧？

Right?

因为这就是Anthropic出名的原因。

Because that's what Anthropics' whole claim to fame is.

我的意思是，这家公司一开始就是一群安全人员离开了OpenAI。

I mean, that's how the company began was a bunch of safety people left OpenAI.

对吧？

Right?

所以我觉得OpenAI确实有真诚的一面，他们内部确实看到了让他们在对齐能力上感到害怕的能力。

So I think there's a genuineness in that OpenAI really does see capabilities internally that frighten them in terms of their ability to align them.

而且我也觉得，你看，时机也正好。

And I also think, look, it's convenient timing.

我觉得这两点都可以成立。

I think both can be true.

我一直在想这个Hugging Face事件，感觉之前没人提，然后突然大家都在讨论了。

Something I've been wondering about this Hugging Face incident, which I feel like is people weren't talking about, and then suddenly everyone's talking about it.