残酷的季度以反弹收尾——但风险正在上升

沃顿商学院教授伊桑·马利克表示，有了人工智能，他的学生能在短短几天内完成一整个学期的工作量。

Wharton professor Ethan Malik says that with AI, his students are doing a semester's worth of work in just a couple of days.

在马利克的课堂上，人工智能是必用的工具。

In Malik's classroom, AI is required.

我是亨利·布洛盖特，本周在《解决方案》节目中，我将与马利克教授探讨他是如何彻底改变教学方式，以及他如何不断探索人工智能的边界。

I'm Henry Blodgett, and this week on Solutions, I talk to Professor Malik about how he's radically transformed how he teaches and how he continues to test the boundaries of what AI can and cannot do.

关注亨利·布洛盖特的《解决方案》，收听我们的对话。

Follow solutions with Henry Blodgett to hear our conversation.

今天的数字是15。

Today's number, 15.

这是去年在美国首播的新真人秀节目数量的下降百分比。

That's the percentage drop in new reality TV shows that premiered in America last year.

由于观众纷纷转向已成为全国最受欢迎的真人秀节目，这一领域的竞争已经持续减弱。

Competition in the space has been dwindling for a while now as viewers flock to what has become the nation's most popular reality TV show.

它叫新闻。

It's called the news.

我试试。

I'm gonna try.

货币市场规模巨大。

Money market's massive.

如果钱是邪恶的，那么那栋楼就是地狱。

If money is evil, then that building is hell.

节目还会继续。

The show goes on.

观众从来不会看得那么悲伤。

The folks are never watching so sad.

欢迎来到Prof G市场。

Welcome to Prof G Markets.

我是埃德·埃尔森。

I'm Ed Elson.

今天是4月1日。

It is April 1.

让我们回顾一下昨天的市场关键数据。

Let's check-in on yesterday's market vitals.

第一季度在主要指数因战争可能结束而出现剧烈反弹中圆满结束。

First quarter wrapped up with a bang as the major indices staged a dramatic rally on a potential end to the war.

稍后再详细说明。

More on that in a second.

与此同时，美元下跌，国债收益率下降，布伦特原油也有所回落，但仍高于每桶100美元。

Meanwhile, the dollar dropped, treasury yields fell, and finally Brent crude declined but remained above $100 per barrel.

好的。

Okay.

还有其他什么动态吗？

What else is happening?

华尔街原本有望迎来四年来的最差季度，但周二的反弹缓解了这一压力。

Wall Street was on track for its worst quarter in four years until a rally Tuesday softened the blow.

标普500指数从1月高点最多下跌了9%。

The S and P five hundred was down as much as 9% from its January peak.

这是自2022年以来最糟糕的季度表现。

That was its worst quarterly performance since 2022.

但周二，它飙升了近3%。

But Tuesday, it surged nearly 3%.

与此同时，纳斯达克指数从高点下跌了多达13%，进入修正区间，直到周二强劲反弹近4%才得以扭转。

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq was down as much as 13% from its peak and entered correction territory that was at least until its blistering rally of nearly 4% on Tuesday.

这一复苏发生在特朗普告诉助手，即使霍尔木兹海峡保持关闭，他也愿意结束战争之后。

That recovery came after Trump told aides he is open to ending the war even if the Strait Of Hormuz remains closed.

随后，伊朗总统佩泽什吉扬表示，德黑兰有‘必要意愿’以获得安全保证为条件结束冲突。

Then Iranian president Pazesh Giyan said Tehran has the, quote, necessary will to end the conflict in exchange for security guarantees.

就此，华尔街迎来了期盼已久的季度末反弹。

And with that, Wall Street got the quarter ending rally it was waiting for.

因此，今天我们邀请到嘉信理财研究中心宏观研究与策略主管凯文·戈登，帮助我们分析今年迄今市场的表现。

So here to help us unpack the market's performance so far this year, we are joined by Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy for the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

所以，凯文，我原本打算请你来分析这次抛售，因为这本将成为有史以来最糟糕的季度之一。

So Kevin, I was gonna have you on here to break down the sell off for what was going to be one of the worst quarters ever.

然后我们得到了这个重大消息。

And then we get this big news.

特朗普说，这场战争可能要结束了。

Trump says maybe the war is gonna come to an end.

伊朗也说，这场冲突可能也要结束了，随后市场开始反弹。

Iran says maybe it's gonna come to an end too, and then the market rallies.

我们先谈谈你对周二市场表现的看法。

Let's just start with your reactions to what we saw on Tuesday.

关键词是‘可能’。

The keyword is maybe.

我认为今天——或者说本季度的最后一天——恰恰体现了我们所处的剧烈波动环境，这正是我们对当前市场的描述。

And I think today is, sort of or, you know, the end of the the the final day of the quarter is is, emblematic of the whiplash environment that we've been in, and that's really how we've been characterizing this market.

交易并非不可能，但当你迫切需要来自双方的准确信息时，比如霍尔木兹海峡的实际状况如何。

It's not impossible to trade, but when you're really kind of starving for accurate information out of both sides in terms of what is the condition of the Strait Of Hormuz.

交通状况到底是什么样的？

How is it what does the traffic look like?

它有多大的可能性能恢复运行？

What is the potential for that to get back online?

这对全球经济会有什么连锁影响？

What is the knock on effect gonna be for the global economy?

所有这些未解之谜。

All of these unanswered questions.

我认为，当你听到任何一点好消息时，市场会变得更加激进和波动，但 downside 也是如此。

I think that just makes markets a little bit more aggressive and volatile when you get any snippet of good news but also to the downside.

我们上周末就经历了相当多这样的情况。

We've had our fair share especially at the end of last week.

你知道，那显然是所有负面消息叠加的一个典型例子。

You know that was sort of a clear example of kind of all the negative news compounding.

所以我认为今天的走势，说实话，并不让我感到意外。

So I think that today's move you know doesn't really surprise me.

我认为有一件事值得观察，那就是这一走势的强度和持久性。

I think that one thing to sort of look at in terms of the strength of the durability of the move.

我不太看重这一点，因为如果你看看标普500指数的底层广度和潜在走势，至少上涨成交量并没有那么强。

I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock into it because if you look at the kind of underlying breadth and subsurface moves of the S and P 500 at least, advancing volume wasn't that strong.

我刚加入你们之前最后一次查看时，情况其实稍微弱一些。

It was actually a little bit last I checked right before I joined you.

所以我得查一下官方的收盘数据。

So I'll have to check for the official closing stats.

但最后一次查看时，我发现上周一的上涨股数量实际上比今天更强，相对于下跌股而言。

But last I checked it was actually stronger last Monday than it was today in terms of advancers relative to decliners.

我的意思是，你看看究竟是什么在大幅推高指数，其实是科技和通信服务板块。

I mean, you look at what was lifting the index significantly, it was actually tech and communication services.

是的，标普500中仍有大部分成分股在上涨，但主要是那些大型权重股重新发力，因为它们此前确实遭受了重创。

So yes, you still had a majority of members in the S and P that were advancing, but it was a lot of that mega cap strength, reasserting itself because those have actually gotten hit.

今年到目前为止，这些板块是受创最严重的市场之一，即使回溯过去六个月也是如此。

Those are some of the hardest hit markets so far this year, even if you back it out actually over the past six months.

所以，这在一定程度上是这些股票的均值回归，同时也是一种经典的动量交易反转——今天能源板块原本是领涨的，却遭受了最重的打击；而科技和通信服务板块此前长期疲软，今天却出现了最强劲的反弹和买盘。

So a little bit was a, was sort of this reversion into those names, but also just sort of this classic momentum trade going in reverse where energy had been the leader today it got hit the hardest similar with tech and communication services they had been struggling a lot and then they had found sort of the strongest move and the strongest bid today.

所以我不太会把一天的走势看得太重，尤其是考虑到一些背景因素，比如市场内部的广度，或者油价今天仍在上涨，这些本身就足以让人谨慎一些，不要轻易 extrapolate 美股的这次走势。

So I wouldn't put a whole lot of weight into just one day but especially because some of the background conditions whether it is the breadth underneath the market or whether it is actually the fact that oil prices continue to move higher today, I think that in and of itself is a little bit of a of a reason to sort of step back and not extrapolate the move that we saw for for US stocks.

我完全搞不懂，为什么投资者会根据特朗普说的话，大规模地买入或卖出。

I'm so confused as to why investors appear to be either buying or selling in huge numbers based on what Trump says.

但这种情况似乎一直在发生。

But that seems to keep on happening.

他说，好吧。

He says, okay.

这场战争很快就会结束，然后市场就上涨。

This war's gonna end soon, and then markets go up.

他说，实际上可能不会，然后市场就下跌。

And he says, actually, it's probably not, and then markets go down.

你是否认为，市场发生的情况并非主要由伊朗事件引发，而主要是科技板块的上涨？还是说这两者仍然密切相关？

Is it your belief that what is happening what happened in the markets wasn't necessarily a response to, what happened in Iran because it was mostly a rally in the tech sector, or are the two still quite related?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，当你看看今天科技板块对指数上涨的贡献时，我会把科技和通信服务归为一类，因为它们已经变得如此相似，就是那种大科技，像你懂的，小写的‘t’那种科技贸易。

I mean, well, when you look at the contribution to the indexes gained today from tech, I I kinda lump tech and communication services in with each other because they have kinda become that, you know, big tech, that tech like like you know trade lowercase t.

它们显然是不同的行业，在成员构成上也有非常不同的特点。

They're clearly different sectors and they have very different makeups in terms of their you know their membership profile.

区分它们很重要，但如果你把这两者合并起来，那差不多占了标普500指数总市值的40%。

It is important to make the distinction but if you combine those two you're talking about you know around 40 of the S and P five hundred's market cap.

所以如果它们上涨表现良好，那么主要指数想跌下去就很难了；反过来，今年早些时候战争爆发前，这些板块其实一直在挣扎。

So if they're advancing and doing well pretty hard for the you know for the headline index to struggle vice versa you know a lot of what we were experiencing year to date right before the war those sectors were struggling.

它们一度退居二线，这给人一种错觉，好像标普指数整体表现并不好。

They were sort of taking a step back from their leadership positions and that was kind of giving the illusion that the headline S and P wasn't doing as well.

但在表面之下，你其实已经看到大多数个股的表现有了显著改善。

But underneath the surface you had actually seen a lot more improvement in the average stock doing doing quite well.

如果你想把等权重的标普500指数看作是平均股票的代表，那它之前的表现一直不错。

The equal weighted S and P 500 if you want to think of that as the proxy for the average stock that had been doing well.

所以是的，我认为今天大部分的行情变动其实就是一种反弹和修正，针对的是过去六个月里一直不受青睐的那部分市场。

So yes I do think most of the move today was kind of just that snapback and that reversion for you know a part of the market that didn't necessarily get a lot of love or hasn't gotten a lot of love for the past six months.

我还要补充一点，不仅我之前提到的市场广度不如预期，今天流入科技板块的资金流实际上也不强。

And I would add to it, you know, only was the sort of the subsurface breadth not as good as I had mentioned, earlier, but the flow data actually into a sector like tech was not very strong today.

因此，交易员，尤其是散户群体，并没有表现出很强的信念。

So there wasn't this sort of high conviction on the part of traders especially in the retail crowd.

我特别关注了这一群体。

I was looking specifically at that cohort.

对于这一轮上涨真的能让他们重返市场，并没有太多坚定的信念。

There wasn't a lot of high conviction in terms of that move really bringing them back in.

当然，这和四月份的情况完全不能比，那时我们经历了所谓的‘掀翻你脸’的暴涨行情，那是在中国进口延迟系列事件之后发生的。

Certainly nothing akin to what you had seen in April when we were going through those, what we were calling these, you know, rip your face off rallies after you had gotten the series of delays for for imports for China.

你如何看待整个本季度的表现？

What do you make of this quarter as a whole?

感觉这期间发生了两件重大的市场事件。

It feels like there have been two major market moving events.

我想第一件是人工智能正在摧毁软件行业。

I guess the first one was AI is killing software.

而且，我想说，我们看到的一些跌幅，甚至在像微软这样技术上属于人工智能公司的股票中，就连英伟达最近也遭受了重创。

And, I mean, some of the drawdowns we've seen, even even in the companies that are technically AI companies like Microsoft, even NVIDIA has gotten pretty crushed, recently.

这似乎是一个出乎人们意料的故事，原因多种多样。

That seems to be one story which surprised people for various different reasons.

还有伊朗局势对石油供应的影响，以及可能对经济造成的冲击。

And then also Iran and what that has done to oil supply and what that may do to the economy.

我想听听你对第一季度的反思。

I guess I'd be interested to hear your reflections on Q1.

我的意思是，我认为这两件事人们未必都预测到了，但它们如何改变了你对今年的展望？你对这个堪称疯狂的季度有什么看法？

I mean, I I don't think these are two things that people necessarily predicted, but how does it change your outlook for the year, and what are your reflections on what has been kind of an insane quarter?

这确实是一个疯狂的——我的意思是，异常漫长的季度。

It has been an insane I mean, insanely long quarter.

我感觉像过了一年，因为这甚至可以追溯到委内瑞拉和格陵兰的情况。

I I feel like it's it's been a year, because, you know, this dates back even to Venezuela and Greenland.

我的意思是，那些都发生在同一个季度。

I mean, that was in the same quarter.

所以，很难想象已经发生了这么多事情。

So, know, it's hard to, it's hard to, you know, imagine that so much has has gone.

我一直在开玩笑说，我们现在还处在一月份。

Know, I've been joking that we're still in January.

所以，感觉这段时间被拉得特别长。

And so it just, you know, it just feels drawn out.

但我认为，特别是对于伊朗来说，是的，这将改变我们对未来经济走势的判断。

But I think that, you know, for Iran in particular, yes, I think it will change the calculus of how we think about the trajectory of the economy moving forward.

困难的是，关于美国的战略，目前有太多未知数。

What's difficult is, you know, there's just so many unknowns in terms of what is the, you know, what's, what is the strategy of The US.

我认为这一点很重要，因为它关系到我们如何推演油价最终走向的各种情景。

And I think that matters in the sense of trying to figure out and sort of game out a scenario analysis for where oil ultimately ends up.

因为我觉得，油价涨到120美元，我只是随便说个大概的数字，但油价达到每桶100到120美元。

Because I think that, you know, going up to $120 I'm just sort of, you know, using rounded, rounded numbers out of the air, but a $100.20 dollars a barrel for oil.

如果真涨到那个水平，其实并不能给我太多信息。

If you get up to that, that doesn't really tell me much.

我想知道那之后的底线在哪里，你最终如何规划并找到一个可持续的底部？

I want to know what is sort of the floor after that and where do you ultimately kind of plan out and find a sustained floor?

因为如果油价在100美元左右，那相比最近的低点60美元来说，是一个显著的上涨，这可能会让汽油价格至少保持在4美元以上，而汽油价格的回落通常比油价更慢。

Because if it is around a 100, that's a meaningful shock up from 60, which was the recent low that probably keeps gasoline prices, you know, at least a little bit above $4 and gasoline prices take longer to come down than oil does.

所以我从消费者的角度来思考这个问题。

So I'm thinking about it from the mindset of the consumer.

对我来说，这更像是一次直接面向消费者的冲击，而不是像去年的解放日那样，那更多是直接冲击企业，因为企业最先面临进口费用和费率上涨的问题。

To me, this is much more of a sort of direct to consumer shock versus something like Liberation Day last year, which was more of a direct to business shock because those are the ones that sort of faced it first in terms of the import fees and the hike in rates that they had to pay.

正如我们所了解到的，消费者在去年并没有承受太多关税负担。

The consumer as we've sort of learned didn't face too much of that tariff burden throughout last year.

当然，在商品市场中有一些零星的传导效应。

There were bits and pieces and certainly in the goods market, there was some pass through.

今年年初我们实际上已经开始看到一些传导效应，但我认为这更像是一次直接面向消费者的冲击。

We've actually started to see some pass through earlier this year, But I think of this as more of that direct to consumer shock.

如果你想想，普通美国消费者——我甚至可以说全球消费者——但尤其是美国消费者，会把哪两件事视为衡量经济健康状况最重要的指标。

If you think about, you know, the two things that the average consumer in America, I would say probably the world, but in America in particular, you know, thinks about as the most important gauges of economic health.

是食品杂货价格和汽油价格。

Its grocery prices and its gasoline prices.

因此，如果这开始导致他们支出方式发生些许变化，我认为这最终将改变我们对经济走势的看法。

So to the extent that this starts to cause a little bit of a shift in how they spend their money, that I think will ultimately lead us to sort of change how we think about the trajectory of the economy.

不过，我认为必须做出一个重要区分，而到目前为止，我们所获得的经济数据也印证了这一点。

I will say though, there needs to be, I think an important distinction and so far this has played out in the economic data that we've gotten.

必须区分什么是消费冲击，什么是劳动力冲击。

There does need to be a distinction between what is a consumption shock and what is a labor shock.

因为如果你影响了消费者的购买力，或者影响了他们的消费篮子，那是一回事。

Because if you do hit the consumer spending power of the or you hit the sort of consumption basket, that's one thing.

如果你通过裁员导致收入下降来削弱消费者的购买力，那就是完全不同的情况。

If you start to take away consumer spending power via lower income, you know, through layoffs, that's a very different story.

到目前为止，情况并非如此。

So far that hasn't been the case.

每周四早上8:30（东部时间）公布的初请失业金人数实际上已经下降，没有明显上升，我们也尚未看到各行业出现大规模裁员的通知。

Initial jobless claims, you know, which we get every Thursday morning at 08:30 Eastern, those have actually rolled over, they haven't picked up much, we haven't really gotten any, you know, sort of company notices of mass layoffs, across industries.

所以只要这种情况持续，我认为这将使经济继续保持增长态势。

So as long as that's the case, I think that it will keep the economy sort of on track to grow.

但我认为，仅凭消费者这一因素，我们很可能不得不下调今年的增长预期。

But I think it's, you know, it's it's probably relatively easy to say that we're gonna have to take down, you know, growth estimates for this year, just based on that consumer aspect alone.

说到这一点，我们刚刚收到消息，甲骨文正在裁员数千人。

Well, while you're on that point, we just had this news that Oracle is laying off thousands of employees.

这简直突如其来。

It kind of just came out of the blue.

他们只是发了一封邮件，数千名员工就被解雇了。

They just sent an email, and thousands of employees were dismissed.

而且，这又是那种与人工智能相关的故事，我们已经看到越来越多这样的案例。

And, again, it is one of those stories of this was an AI story, and we have seen more of these.

我们之前看到过Pinterest这样的情形。

We've seen it with, Pinterest.

我们也看到过亚马逊这样的情形。

We saw it with Amazon.

我们还看到Block公司也这样做了。

We saw it with Block.

Block是另一个大公司。

Block was another big one.

这些与AI相关的裁员故事，对你来说是否严重到足以在未来对劳动力市场造成真正问题？

Are those AI layoff stories significant enough to you to make to to pose real problems in the labor market going forward?

我的意思是，这是否只是发生在少数科技公司身上的一种情况，虽然对这个行业本身可能非常震撼，但未必会对整体经济产生重大影响。

Like, is that just more of a this happens to a handful of tech companies and, you know, it might be very shocking for that industry itself, but not necessarily gonna have a massive implication for the larger economy.

关于这些AI裁员对未来的影响，你的看法是什么？

Where do you land on these AI layoffs in terms of their impact going forward?

我倾向于这种观点，因为从简单的数学角度来看，信息行业很难界定，因为劳工统计局并没有将科技单独列为一个行业名称。

I I lean that way just because in in just sort of simple math terms, I mean, the information sector, it's it's hard because the BLS, you know, they don't have tech specifically carved out as a name of an industry.

但信息业本质上就是我们可以与科技关联起来的类别。

But information is essentially that that's the name that we can we can sort of associate with tech.

从整体薪资人数的占比来看，这个比例非常低，只有个位数。

That's pretty low single digits in terms of the percentage share of overall payrolls.

所以第一点，至少从整体薪资总额来看，这种影响相当有限。

So number one, that's a pretty small sort of impact directly at least for overall payrolls.

但第二点，这一比例实际上在过去几年里已经开始下滑，差不多快两年了。

But number two, that share has actually been rolling over for a couple of years, almost a couple of years now.

所以我们早在几年前就开始看到这种趋势，但近年来我们持续观察到科技行业在就业份额上的主导地位正在减弱，因为这一比例此前一直在增长，而现在却开始逆转，转向医疗和教育等领域。

So we've started to actually, we've continued to see it a couple of years ago, but we've to see this move away from tech dominance in terms of that share of employment growing because it had been growing for a while but now that's actually started to reverse lower and it's been in favor of areas like health and education.

我的意思是，私营医疗服务。

I mean, you know, private health services.

在这一时期内，我们已经看到了这种转变。

We've seen that handoff in that in that timeframe.

当然，经济仍在持续增长。

Of course, the economy has continued to grow.

劳动力市场也仍在扩张，虽然并不强劲，不如我们过去习惯的那样，但我们依然能看到经济增长。

The labor market has continued to grow, not in a strong way, not as strong as we've been used to, but we've still continued to see economic growth.

所以我认为这使得这种情况更具独特性，但同时它也体现了整个科技行业正在发生的变化。

So I think that it keeps that, you know, a little bit more idiosyncratic, but at the same time it is emblematic, I think of what's happening to the broader tech industry.

我认为这引出了一个关于科技行业在下一季财报季的有趣观点。

I think actually brings up an interesting point about tech for this sort of next earnings season.

到目前为止，今年我注意到的一个有趣现象是，在标普500指数中，科技板块的盈利预期修正幅度最为积极。

What I found interesting so far year to date is that, tech earnings revisions, within the S and P 500, that sector has actually seen the most aggressive upward revision.

因此，分析师们对今年每股收益的表现持续变得更加乐观。

So analysts have continued to get more optimistic on what EPS is gonna look like for this year.

在下一季财报季，我会非常关注，这种盈利增长究竟是源于裁员带来的利润率保护，还是真正持续看到了强劲的有机收入和需求。

I'm gonna be very sort of Hawkeye focused on in the next earnings season, whether that is driven by sort of this profit margin protection of you know, laying more people off or whether act they're actually continuing to see strong organic, you know, revenue and strong demand.

我认为这两者截然不同，这将决定科技行业今年余下时间的走向。

I think those are two very different things, and that to me will determine a lot of the sort of the fate of where tech goes for the rest of the year.

这很引人注目，因为本季度科技股被严重打压了。

And it's striking because it's gotten so crushed this quarter.

我的意思是，这个板块一直持续发布出色的财报，总体上不断超出预期，但即便如此，股价还是遭到惩罚。

I mean, it's just one of those sectors where they keep on posting great earnings, keep on beating estimates by and large, and then they still get punished either way.

就在我们结束之前，目前看来，2026年可能是市场历史上最不确定的时期之一，我不知道你是否同意这一点。

Just as we wrap up here, it seems as though as it stands, 2026 I don't know if you agree with this, but it it seems as though this might be one of the most uncertain times in market history.

看起来投资者对现实情况完全失去了锚定，因为他们不断追问未来会是什么样子，而对过去的数据却缺乏兴趣或不愿关注，因为每个人的看法都是：未来完全不确定。

It seems as though investors are incredibly unanchored from what is actually happening on the ground because they're asking so many questions about what the future might look like, and they're not really willing or very interested in in looking at the previous backward looking data because everyone's view is kind of like, well, the future is in completely uncertain.

我们不知道伊朗会发生什么。

We don't know what's gonna happen in Iran.

我们不知道油价会如何变化。

We don't know what's gonna happen to the price of oil.

我们不知道人工智能会对就业市场、软件、科技等领域产生什么影响。

We don't know what AI is going to do to the job market, what it's gonna do to software, to tech, etcetera.

所以，就我目前的感受而言，这就像一场全面混乱。

So it's kind of like a free for all is the way I feel right now.

我很想听听你是否同意。

I I'd be interested to hear if you agree.

你觉得这是否是我们过去至少十年里见过的最不确定的时刻？

Like, do you agree that this is the most uncertain time we've seen at least in the past, I don't know, ten years?

我想用的词其实是‘不稳定’。

The u word I would use is actually unstable.

是的

Mhmm.

不稳定和不确定对我来说是不同的。

And unstable and uncertain are to me are different.

这实际上是我们进入2026年时的一个关键主题，尽管我们并没有以任何方式预测到我们目前所处的战争。

That was actually a key theme that we had coming into 2026, not that we in any way predicted, you know, the war that, we're in right now.

但不稳定稍微多一些，它确实让你更不舒服，因为你能看到这些正在变化的事物，只是你不一定知道作为投资者该如何应对。

But, instability is a little bit more, it's definitely less comfortable in terms of you can see these things that are shifting, you just don't necessarily know how to respond as an investor.

所以，我们并不是认为你需要对所有这些事件做出反应，我反而会反对这一点，认为你应该延长投资期限，重新评估你的风险承受能力以及在这些环境中的情绪风险承受能力。

So not that we think you need to respond to all of these events, I would actually argue against that and say that you you should be lengthening time horizons and really reassessing what your risk, your risk tolerance and your emotional risk tolerance is in these environments.

但我觉得，针对你的观点，我最近一直在思考，正在经历眼下发生的这一切。

But I think to your point, know something I've been thinking about lately and going through all of these things that are happening right now.

这有点像以往各种危机的大杂烩，或者说，是过去危机的幽灵同时回来困扰我们。

It's sort of a monster mashup of prior crises or it's sort of the ghost of prior crises, you know, past that are coming to haunt us all at once.

因为你有AI的故事，很多人将它比作九十年代末的互联网泡沫。

Because you have the AI story, a lot of people, you know, liken it to the late nineties with the internet bubble.

现在正发生一场能源危机，人们将其与1990年或上世纪70年代中后期相提并论。

You have an energy crisis going on right now that people liken to 1990 or the late nineteen mid to late 1970s.

但同时，我们仍处于一种关税体系中，这让人回想起2017年、2018年，甚至去年的情况。

But then you also have this tariff regime that we're still in which harkens back to '17 and '18 or even last year.

所有这些因素同时发生、交织在一起，我认为这正是导致人们感到压力和焦虑的原因——在如此多动荡之下，市场如何还能持续走强，或为何没有像我们预期的那样大幅下跌。

So it's all of this sort of happening at once and mashed up and I think that's what's causing a lot of the stress and the anxiety around how can the market continue to do well or not sell off as much as we'd expect with all of this going on.

但对我而言，这又回到了我在这类时刻一直使用的框架：什么是头条风险？什么是根本性风险？

But to me it gets back to I guess a framework that I've been using for these moments which is what is the front page risk, what is the bottom line risk.

今年我们已经经历了许多头条风险，无论是委内瑞拉、格陵兰，还是美联储的种种举动。

We've gone through a lot of front page risks and faced a lot of that this year whether it was Venezuela, whether it was Greenland, it was everything with the Fed.

但根本性风险并没有那么紧迫或尖锐，因为它尚未真正影响到标普500指数的盈利前景。

But the bottom line risk wasn't as acute or as sharp because it wasn't filtering down to how is this gonna affect S and P 500 earnings?

因为归根结底，市场最关心的很可能就是这一点。

Because at the end of the day, it's probably what the market that is what the market cares about the most.

最近这场冲突，我认为正在缩小这两者之间的差距。

This more recent conflict you know I think is is kind of narrowing the gap between those two.

所以，我正在关注的是，这种直接面向消费者的冲击到底会显现多少，以及会增长多少。

So that's kind of what I'm on watch for is to see how much of this direct to consumer hit really manifests and how much of it grows.

而我认为，这可能会让事情从单纯的 headline 风险，转化为真正的基本面风险。

And that's where I could see this translating from, you know, just the front page stuff to an actual bottom line risk.

好的。

Alright.

凯文·戈登，嘉信理财研究中心宏观研究与策略主管。

Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy for the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

凯文，每次请你来我都非常高兴。

Kevin, always love having you.

感谢你加入我们。

Thank you for joining us.

谢谢，埃德。

Thanks, Ed.

广告后，更新一下芯片市场的情况。

After the break, an update on the chips market.

如果你喜欢这个节目，请从下周开始关注我们的新频道‘Prof G Markets’YouTube频道。

And if you're enjoying the show, please follow our new Prof G Markets YouTube channel starting next week.

所有我们在YouTube上的新内容都会发布在这个频道上。

That is where you will find all of our new content on YouTube.

链接在简介中。

The link is in the description.

现在就订阅吧。

Subscribe now.

你好。

Hi.

我是布琳·布朗。

I'm Brene Brown.

我是亚当·格兰特。

And I'm Adam Grant.

我们在这里邀请你来探索‘好奇心商店’。

And we're here to invite you to the Curiosity Shop.

这是一个专注于倾听、好奇、思考、感受与质疑的播客。

A podcast that's a place for listening, wondering, thinking, feeling, and questioning.

这会很有趣。

It's going to be fun.

我们很少意见一致。

We rarely agree.

但我们几乎从不真正对立，而且总在学习。

But we almost never disagree, and we're always learning.

确实如此。

That's true.

你可以在YouTube上订阅《好奇心商店》，或在您最喜欢的播客应用中关注我们，每周四自动接收新 episodes。

You can subscribe to The Curiosity Shop on YouTube or follow in your favorite podcast app to automatically receive new episodes every Thursday.

本节目由领英赞助。

Support for the show comes from LinkedIn.

当最好的B2B营销用错了受众时，实在令人惋惜。

It's a shame when the best b to b marketing gets wasted on the wrong audience.

比如在周六早间的卡通节目上投放白内障手术广告，或者在关于Roblox的视频里推广这个节目。

Like, running an ad for cataract surgery on Saturday morning cartoons or running a promo for this show on a video about Roblox or something.

并非对我们的Gen Alpha听众不敬，但这样做简直是浪费任何人的广告预算。

No offense to our Gen Alpha listeners, but that would be a waste of anyone's ad budget.

所以，当你想触达正确的专业人士时，可以使用LinkedIn广告。

So when you wanna reach the right professionals, you can use LinkedIn ads.

根据他们的数据，LinkedIn已经发展成为一个拥有超过10亿专业人士和1.3亿决策者的网络。

LinkedIn has grown to a network of over 1,000,000,000 professionals and a 130,000,000 decision makers according to their data.

这正是LinkedIn与其他广告投放方式的不同之处。

That's where it stands apart from other ad buys.

你可以根据职位、行业、公司、角色、职级、技能、公司营收等精准定位买家，从而避免将预算浪费在错误的受众身上。

You can target buyers by job title, industry company, role, seniority, skills, company revenue, all so you can stop wasting budget on the wrong audience.

因此，LinkedIn广告拥有所有在线广告网络中最高的B2B广告投资回报率之一。

That's why LinkedIn ads boast one of the highest b to b return on ad spend of all online ad networks.

真的，所有平台里都是最高的。

Seriously, all of them.

在 LinkedIn 广告上为您的首个活动投入 250 美元，即可获得下一次活动 250 美元的免费额度。

Spend $250 on your first campaign on LinkedIn ads and get a free $250 credit for the next one.

只需访问 linkedin.com/scott。

Just go to linkedin.com/scott.

就是 linkedin.com/scott。

That's linkedin.com/scott.

条款和条件适用。

Terms and conditions apply.

我们回来了，欢迎收听 Prof G 市场。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

芯片股的持续上涨遇到了瓶颈。

The relentless rise of chip stocks has hit a roadblock.

上周，在谷歌公布了一款名为 TurboQuant 的算法后，美国内存芯片股的市值蒸发了 1000 亿美元，该算法可降低对芯片的需求。

Last week, US memory chip stocks shed a $100,000,000,000 in market value after Google revealed an algorithm called TurboQuant that could reduce demand for the chips.

不过，昨天投资者逢低买入，股价有所回升，但本周仍处于下跌态势。

Stocks rallied yesterday, though, as investors bought the dip, but they are still down for the past week.

与此同时，伊朗战争加剧了人们对氦气供应短缺的担忧，而氦气是芯片制造的关键材料。

Meanwhile, the Iran war is stoking fears of a supply crunch in helium, a critical material in chip manufacturing.

尽管昨天整体市场上涨，但英伟达的市盈率（未来12个月）首次在十三年来低于标普500指数。

Despite yesterday's broad market rally, NVIDIA is still trading at a forward PE below the S and P 500 for the first time in thirteen years.

所以目前芯片市场正在发生很多事情。

So lots going on in the chips market right now.

今天我们邀请到SemiAnalysis的总裁道格·奥劳林，来为我们解析当前的情况。

Here to break down what's happening, we're speaking with Doug O'Laughlin, president of SemiAnalysis.

道格，很高兴见到你。

Doug, great to see you.

我们目前看到的芯片市场动向有点令人困惑。

This movement in the chip market that we're seeing is a little bit confusing.

我的意思是，首先，谷歌推出了名为TurboQuant的算法，据说会重创内存股票，人们称之为谷歌的‘内存版DeepSeek时刻’。

I mean, first, Google comes out with this algorithm, TurboQuant, which supposedly is going to kill memory stocks, and people were calling it Google's or memory's deep seek moment.

但随后，昨天内存芯片股票上涨了，其他所有半导体股票也一同上涨。

But then the the memory chip stocks rise yesterday, so did all the other semiconductor stocks.

这里到底发生了什么？

What is going on here?

好的。

Okay.

所以我认为我们实际上看到的是表面之下的大量杠杆。

So I think what we're actually seeing is a lot of leverage under the surface.

对吧？

Right?

今年到目前为止，内存一直是一个非常热门的交易，而且已经变得非常拥挤。

Memory has been a really popular trade year to date, and it's become very crowded.

对吧？

Right?

这是最简单的一种理解方式。

That's the most simplistic way to think about it.

我认为三星海力士，作为一家估值更低的替代公司，其股票在基本面指标上更便宜，但它的交易地点在韩国。最近它在讨论发行美国存托凭证（ADR），这将导致一部分原本流向美光股票的需求转向三星海力士股票。

And I think SK Hynix, which is a cheaper alter like, the stock is cheaper on fundamental metrics, but it trades in Korea, It's recently been, talking about leasing, you know, an ADR, and because of that, that's gonna kind of, you know, move some of the supply of, rather some of the demand for Micron away from Micron shares into SK Hynix shares.

这是一种简单的思考方式。

That's one simplistic way to think about it.

另一方面，我认为这只是大量动量在逆转。

The other side of it, I think, is just, you know, a lot of momentum unwinding.

很多走势都远远偏离了正常水平，达到了多个标准差之外，特别是负面的芯片股和正面的软件股。

A lot of this the moves were very like, multiple standard deviations out of the normal, specifically for negative negative chip stocks and positive software stocks.

这实际上是今年到目前为止最受欢迎的交易。

That's effectively been the most popular trade year to date.

因此，我认为你所看到的这些令人困惑的走势，更多是去杠杆的结果，而非基本面信息。

And so what I think what you're you're witnessing in terms of the confusing moves is more a function of degrossing than fundamental information.

我确实想谈谈TurboQuant，因为TurboQuant是假的。

And I definitely wanna talk about TurboQuant because, like, TurboQuan's fake.

我的意思是，我找不到别的说法了。

I mean, I I have no other way to put this.

好吧。

There's okay.

我甚至可以透露一些内部情况。

And I I can even give some, like, insider baseball.

我觉得这会很有帮助。

I feel like that will really help.

首先，几乎总是这样：如果他们在封闭实验室里还愿意公开发布一篇论文，那就意味着出现了某种问题。

One, almost always what happens is in a closed lab, if they're willing to publish a paper about it publicly, that means that there's some kind of breakdown.

这意味着它无法在更大规模上扩展。

That means it can't scale at a larger amount.

因为如果它真的能在更大规模上有效运作，你们就会把它保密起来，从而相对于竞争对手提高利润率。

Because if it, you know, if it did work at a larger amount, you just keep it inside, and you would essentially increase your margin versus your competitors.

这种情况严重到我知道封闭实验室里甚至存在一种政治运动。

It's so much so that I know that closed labs have a political movement.

所以，基本上，如果你想毁掉某人的职业生涯，就发布他们所研究的成果。

So pretty much like if you want to screw someone's, career as you publish the finding that they worked on.

我真的不认为TurboQuant有人们想象的那么重要。

I really don't think turbo quant is a big of deal as people think.

如果你将其扩大，实际上会发生的是立即出现吞吐量劣势。

And if you scale it up, pretty much what happens is that there's an immediate throughput disadvantage.

部分原因，也很重要的一点，是对比了不同的量化方案。

Partially, a big part of it too, was comparing the the quantization schemes.

所以是32位和大约4位之间的对比。

So it was like a 32 bit versus like, know, I think it was like a four bit.

仅这一差异就显著提升了KV缓存的压缩效果。

That difference alone accounts for a meaningful uplift in the KV cache compression.

但最后但同样重要的是，整个问题中最关键的部分是：如果你能通过KV缓存获得更多的上下文，用户就会使用更多的上下文。

But last and not not least is the most important portion of this whole thing is if you get more context and and via KBCache, essentially, users will just use more context.

所以我认为这真的没什么大不了的。

So I I think I think it really is a nothingburger.

我真的怎么强调都不为过。

Like, I really cannot express this enough.

我知道，如果它真的特别、秘密且出色，就不会被发布出来。

I know that if it was really, really special and secret and good, it wouldn't have been released.

各个顶尖实验室都有针对KBCache的优化技术，而这只是其中一项被公开发布的技术。

There are optimization techniques for KBCash that happen at every of the leading labs, and this is just one of them that was published to the to the public.

是的。

Yeah.

市场对Turbo Quan发布后的反应很有趣，这又是谷歌推出的一种算法，其理念是减少运行大型语言模型所需的内存。

It's interesting how how the the market reacted to that Turbo Quan release, which was again, I mean, Google comes out with this algorithm that the idea is that it's gonna reduce the amount of memory that is needed to run these large language models.

所有人都惊慌失措，但现在看来，市场似乎正在重新理解实际情况，因为内存股票又开始上涨了。

And and everyone freaks out, but it it appears that now markets are kind of reunderstanding what's happening because memory stocks are now rising again.

我读到的报道称，贝恩公司发布了一些研究，表示我们对此并不那么担心。

And what I read is that Bernstein had put out some research saying we're not so worried about this.

于是大家又开始买入。

Everyone decides to buy again.

重点是，投资者似乎对这里发生的事情有点摸不着头脑。

The point being, it seems that investors are kinda don't know what's going on here.

仅仅从技术层面来看。

Just just on a technical basis.

他们等着别人告诉他们这到底是怎么回事。

Like, they're waiting for someone else to tell them this is the deal.

这对你意味着什么。

This is what this means for you.

你同意这一点吗？

Would you agree with that?

如果是这样，这对市场意味着什么？

And if so, what does that mean for this market?

我基本同意这一点，我认为这归根结底是风险偏好以及全球投资者的动向。

I would mostly agree with that, and and I think it really comes down to risk appetite and what's happening at investors all around the world.

对吧？

Right?

上涨得非常快的股票往往也会迅速回落，我认为这正是我们正在见证的大趋势。

Stocks that go up very quickly often have give it back very quickly, and I think that that's the big thing that we're witnessing.

美光的远期市盈率非常低，但内存股常常在市盈率还很低的时候就见顶了，因为它们本质上具有周期性。

Micron trades really cheap on a forward price to earnings, but oftentimes memory stocks kind of top out at a cheap price to earnings because they're inherently cyclical.

现在这个时候，我认为发生的情况是，随着内存价格不断上涨，价格变得越来越便宜，这简直就像一场胆小鬼游戏。

Now in this point in time, I think what happens is, like, as it becomes, you know, cheaper and cheaper and cheaper as the memory price goes up and up and up, effectively, it's like a game of chicken.

总有一天，内存价格会下跌，而那时，那些在高位时已经非常便宜的股票，其运营杠杆会显著放大下行压力。

One day, the memory price will go down, and what will happen is the the shares, which often, are very, very cheap at the top, become, you know, the operating leverage is meaningful to the downside.

所以，这正是每一个内存周期的历史重演，但在这个时点，我想说得清楚一点。

And so this is like the history of every memory cycle, but at this point in time, I want to be pretty clear about this.

我们仍然坚信，需求远远超过供应，而供应面临一个独特的限制——几乎没有任何显著的新增产能会在明年下半年之前上线。

We still continue to believe that there is way more demand than there is supply, and supply has a unique constraint that pretty much there's no meaningful blocks of supply that will come online until the second half of next year.

这是因为建造整个无尘室等长周期设备需要很长时间，因此这将是我们市场中持续存在的供需缺口。

That's because the long lead time items of, like, building a whole clean room takes a long time, and so that's kinda gonna be this continued supply demand gap that we see in the market.

我只是想转到其他一些公司上。

I I just wanna shift to to some other names here.

英伟达就是一个例子，正如我提到的，其市盈率低于标普500的平均水平。

NVIDIA is an example, which is, as I mentioned, is trading at a forward PE that is below the S and P 500 average.

事实上，英伟达的未来市盈率现在已经低于埃克森美孚的未来市盈率，这相当惊人。

In fact, NVIDIA's forward PE is now lower than ExxonMobil's forward PE, which is pretty remarkable.

关于NVIDIA的叙事，现在有什么变化？

What has changed in terms of the NVIDIA narrative here?

为什么呢？这是一家AI公司，但投资者却说他们并不那么兴奋。

Why is it I mean, this is the AI company, and yet investors are saying we're not so excited.

事实上，我们对埃克森美孚的兴趣反而更大。

In fact, we're more excited about ExxonMobil.

这是一个很难回答的问题，我经常被我的客户问到。

This is a hard question and one that I've been answering to a lot of my clients.

我们真的很难理解，为什么大公司会以这样的方式交易。

It's really hard for us to understand, why the big companies trade the way they do.

我打算稍微回顾一下历史，举一个公司在其市场中取得惊人成功后，市盈率却暴跌的例子。

I'm gonna actually look to history a little bit and give an example of a company that won so so stupendously in its market that the earnings multiple collapsed.

首先想到的公司是苹果。

The company that comes top of mind is Apple.

苹果曾经在大约2010年代末期，甚至可能是中期的时候。

Apple, once upon a time in the, like, late teens or maybe even mid teens.

不知道。

Don't know.

我认为在晚期，它的市盈率（扣除现金后）是8倍。

Late teens, I think it traded for eight times earnings ex cash.

整个时期，这家公司的增长势头一直很健康。

The entire time, the company was growing at a healthy clip.

但有时候，如果你仔细想想，市场需要有新的买家加入。

But what happens is sometimes effectively, if you think about it, there needs to be an incremental buyer.

它是全球市值最大的公司。

It's the single biggest company in the world.

这是一个广为人知的故事，我认为股票未来仍会随着盈利增长而表现良好，而他们未来盈利预期这么低的原因在于，市场预计今年他们的收入将增长超过70%。

It's a well understood story, and I think what's gonna happen is the the stock will probably continue to work based on its earnings growth, which if you the reason why, you know, the, their forward earnings is so low is because they're expected to grow over 70% revenue this year.

对于一家规模如此庞大的公司来说，这样的收入增长率已经非常惊人了。

And that's that's a pretty remarkable revenue growth rate at a company that their size.

所以我认为英伟达会没事，但我觉得当你站在顶峰时，会有一套完全不同的特殊规则，而他们正是全球市值最大的公司。

So I think NVIDIA is gonna be fine, but I think part of it is when you're at the top, there is kind of a whole different special set of second rules, and they are the single biggest company in the world.

因此，资金流动和流动性实际上对你不利。

And so the flow, the liquidity kind of really fights against you.

你已经成为指数中如此大的一部分。

You become such a big portion in indexes.

我认为，从你股票的供需角度来看，这变成了一场小小的较量。

It it becomes a little bit of a battle, I think, from a supply and demand of your shares.

我认为，这正是限制了短期内股价预期的原因。

And that's, what I think is capping the, you know you know, near term, let's say, stock revisions.

我认为，持续的执行力将使英伟达的股票及其盈利价值重新变得有价值。

And I think continued execution is what will make NVIDIA's stock and the value of its earnings be valuable again.

因为你可以看看AI市场的其他部分，有很多很多不同的领域，它们的市盈率高达三十倍、四十倍，甚至更高，因为市场充满热情。

Because you can look at other parts of the market for AI, there's many, many, many different parts that trade for thirty, forty, very healthy times multiples of earnings because there's a lot of excitement.

我认为这仅仅是规模大小的差异。

I think it's just a difference in magnitude of scale.

是的。

Yeah.

如果以苹果作为比较，那我会认为这可能是一个不错的买入机会。

If Apple is the is the comparison, then it would lead me to believe that perhaps this is a good buying opportunity.

我确实觉得微软是这样的，我刚才正好在看。

I certainly seem to think that about Microsoft, which is I I was just looking.

它现在的交易价格大致与去年那次崩盘后的解放日水平相当。

It's now trading roughly where it was after Liberation Day, after that meltdown last year.

微软是另一家构建数据中心的AI公司，目前正遭受重创。

Microsoft is another AI company building the data centers, getting absolutely crushed right now.

顺便说一下，Meta也处于类似的位置，交易价格也接近去年解放日崩盘后的水平。

Meta, by the way, is in a slightly similar position, also trading near where it was after the meltdown after Liberation Day.

在我们结束之前，我想听听你对Meta和微软这两家公司的看法，为什么它们今年到目前为止也被严重打压。

Just before we let you go here, I'd love to get your views on those two names, Meta, Microsoft, and why they too are getting clobbered at least so far this year.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得这非常有趣，现在是时候思考人工智能如何影响它们的商业模式了，因为我认为这才是关键差异。

I think it's really interesting, and I think it's time to think about how AI impacts both their business models because I think that that's the big difference.

我认为微软的关键区别在于，它是一家拥有Office 365的横向软件公司，没有任何公司比它在核心业务上更受ChatGPT和Anthropic的CoWork的挑战。

Microsoft, I think the big difference is that they're a horizontal software company with Office '3 65, and there is no company that is challenged more than they are at a core basis, from ChatGPT, from Anthropix's co work.

而且，显然他们正在努力快速跟进，就像他们当初对Teams和Zoom所做的那样。

And, obviously, they're working really hard to fast follow, kinda like they did with Teams and Zoom.

对吧？

Right?

而且你其实也可以使用Slack。

And and you could already use Slack as well.

但与此同时，当AI市场的步伐和速度如此之快时，我认为完全没有理由质疑微软核心业务的持久性。

But at the same time, when this the the the pace and the speed of the market is moving so quickly in AI, I think that there's a real invalid reason to question the longevity of Microsoft's core business.

对吧？

Right?

如果AI将承担大量过去由人类通过桌面软件模式处理的信息工作，那么Office 365就面临威胁。

Office March is under threat if AI is going to be doing a lot of the information processing that humans on a seat based software consumption model previously did.

但与此同时，Azure恰好是全球最大的——我们不妨称之为新一代云平台。

Now at the same time, Azure happens to be the biggest, you know, we'll call it Neo Cloud in the world.

对吧？

Right?

他们是最大的基础设施提供商，这项业务正以非常健康的速度发展。

They are the single biggest infrastructure player, and that business is working at a very healthy clip.

所以我认为，微软正面临一种叙事逆风，他们的核心业务正面临外部冲击。

So I think that there's a a kind of a narrative headwind to Microsoft where they have kind of barbarians at the gates of their core business.

但与此同时，这些门外的野蛮人恰恰是他们最大的客户。

But at the same time, you know, the the barbarians at the gate happen to be their biggest customers.

对吧？

Right?

因此，在某种程度上，我相信你最终可能免费获得Office，因为Azure部分的价值及其带来的收入加速。

So there's this kind of this push and pull, but at some price, I believe you're kind of going to be able to get Office for free because the value of the Azure portion and the revenue acceleration from that.

如果再把Windows算进去或排除在外，这只股票就变得相当便宜了。

And then if you include or x out Windows, the stock becomes pretty cheap.

但我确实相信，虽然这很可能是一只便宜且令人兴奋的股票，但也确实存在一些叙事上的逆风。

But I do believe that there's gonna be quite so, like, look, it's probably a very cheap and exciting stock, but there's definitely some narrative headwinds.