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我们回到Prof G Markets节目。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

很明显，风险最大的就是那两家公司，OpenAI和Anthropic，根据我们所知，它们都在亏损。

The blast zone is very clearly those two companies, OpenAI and Anthropic, which are based on what we know losing money.

但我要补充一点，其实我们知道的并不多。

But I should I should add, like, we don't really know much at all.

我的意思是，就OpenAI而言，Ed Zitrin拿到了财务数据并泄露了出来，我们从这些数据中得知OpenAI去年亏损了210亿美元。

I mean, in OpenAI's case, Ed Zitrin got his hands on the financials and he leaked them, and we learned from those financials that OpenAI lost $21,000,000,000 last year.

而且，我们可以基于这些数据来估算和分析Anthropic那边的情况。

And, you know, we can we can make estimates and do analyses based on on that as to what we think is going on over at Anthropic.

但我想再播放一段Gavin Baker在Invest Like The Best播客中的采访片段。

But I wanna play you one more clip from this Gavin Baker interview, on the Invest Like The Best podcast.

我需要澄清一下。

And and I should just clarify.

其实我很想邀请Gavin Baker来上我们的播客。

You know, I'd love to have Gavin Baker on the podcast.

我想我们已经联系过他了。

I think we have reached out to him.

加文，如果你在听这个节目，我们很希望你能来聊聊这个话题。

And Gavin, if you're listening to this, we'd love to have you on and talk about this.

但他在那期节目里说了一些我觉得很有问题的话，而且他好像就一带而过了。

But he said something that I think was really problematic in that episode, and he kind of just skipped over it.

但我想很快给你放一下这段，然后我们分析一下。

But I wanna play this to you really quickly, and then break it down.

OpenAI 已经加速了。

OpenAI has accelerated.

Anthropic 继续强劲增长，而且几乎肯定在产生大量的自由现金流。

Anthropic continues to grow really strongly and is almost certainly pumping out significant amounts of free cash flow.

完全没有证据表明 Anthropic 产生了任何自由现金流。

There is zero evidence that Anthropic has generated any free cash flows whatsoever.

而且他们自己估计，要到 2028 年才会产生自由现金流。

And they have even said by their own estimates that they don't expect to generate any free cash flows until 2028.

顺便说一句，如果他们真的产生了自由现金流，我敢保证我们早就听到了风声，因为这会直接引爆股市。

And by the way, if they had generated any free cash flows, I can guarantee you we would be hearing about it because it would take the set the stock market.

为什么他们还要从债务市场筹集360亿美元，再加上几个月前从黑石集团筹集的另外350亿美元？

Why are they take raising $36,000,000,000 from the debt markets on top of the other $35,000,000,000 they raised a couple of months ago from Blackstone?

所以你看，他刚才说话的方式有点意思。

So and he just he kinda you notice his language there.

"几乎肯定"在产生大量的自由现金流。

Almost certainly generating significant amounts of free cash flow.

我是真搞不懂他到底怎么想的，居然能说出这种话。你不能就这么随口一说，因为现实情况是，他那个跳跃式的结论——几乎肯定地说这事儿正在发生——恰恰是整个AI生态现在最依赖的前提。

Like, I don't know what he's thinking when he says that, but that's that's you can't just you can't just say that because the reality is that jump that he makes there, just deciding that almost certainly it's happening, that is what the entire AI ecosystem is depending on right now.

在我看来，他这么说是暴露了目前股市对AI行业的真实状况存在严重的误解。

And to me, the fact that he says that tells me that there are some serious misunderstanding in the equity markets right now as to what is actually going on in AI.

毕竟，如果有很多像他一样的投资者，在没有任何证据支持的情况下，就凭空假设Anthropic的商业模式行得通，那说明投资者的预期和实际落地情况之间存在巨大的错位。

Because if there are a lot of other investors who, like him, are just randomly assuming that the Anthropic business model actually works despite there being zero evidence to support that argument, then we have a serious mismatch in terms of investor expectations and the actual reality on the ground.

当然，我们确实不清楚具体情况，因为Anthropic不肯透露数据，不过我们自己也对他们的财务数字做了分析。

And granted, we don't know because Anthropic won't tell us, but we did our own analysis of Anthropic's numbers.

我们是根据OpenAI的财务状况来分析的。

We did it based on what we saw with OpenAI's financials.

根据我们的估算，Anthropic去年亏损了大约110亿美元。

And based on our estimates, Anthropic lost around $11,000,000,000 last year.

而且我们预计这个数字还会继续上升，因为他们在训练和推理上投入巨大。

And we would expect that number to continue to go up because of the massive amounts that they're spending on training and inference.

所以，这就是问题所在。

So that to me is the problem.

为什么我们要假装OpenAI和Anthropic这些业务是可行的呢？

Why are we pretending like OpenAI and Anthropic, like those businesses are working?

我是说，我们是怎么得出这个结论的？

I mean, how are we making that jump?

因为这才是真正的问题。

Because that's the real problem.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得如果他说，如果这些公司大幅削减资本支出，他们很快就能实现正现金流。

I think if he'd said, if if these companies dramatically reduce their CapEx, they would get to cash flow positive pretty soon.

因为如果你看营收和行业的增长，我觉得这个论点站得住脚。

Because if you look at the top line and the sector's growth, I think that's a defensible argument.

不过通常来说，你得有正的毛利率才行。

Usually, though, you have to have positive gross margins.

而且我一直在说，我刚订阅了，好像是叫Cloud Pro什么的，一个月要200美元左右。

And what I've been saying is that I just signed up for I fear it was Cloud Pro, whatever, and it's $200 a month or something.

然后我在哪儿看到，他们服务我这个200美元一个月的产品，成本要1000美元。

And I read somewhere that it's costing them a thousand dollars a month to service my $200 a month product.

但确实是这样。

But yeah.

你看。

Look.

我觉得如果他说这些公司如果决定大幅缩减资本支出，就能实现正现金流，因为它们增长太快了，这个论点可能站得住脚，但我没看到任何证据表明这些公司现在能产生像样的自由现金流。

I think I think if he'd said these companies could be cash flow positive if they decided to dramatically scale back their CapEx because they're growing so fast, I think that's maybe a defensible argument, but I don't I don't see any evidence that these companies are producing anything resembling free cash flow right now.

这就是关键所在。

And that's the whole point.

而这正是这轮牛市的核心问题：OpenAI的业务能不能赚钱，Anthropic的业务能不能赚钱？

And that, like, that is the whole question in this bull market is can OpenAI's business make money, and can Anthropic's business make money?

而且，最看好AI的头号人物在播客上说他们几乎肯定已经在赚钱了，但事实并非如此。

And you have the number one AI bull going on podcasts saying that they're already making money almost certainly, quote, unquote, and it's not true.

所以我就想，我们到底在干什么？

And so I I'm just like, what are we doing here?

我有一个演讲，叫“AI乐观主义者”。

I have this deck or this talk I do called AI Optimist.

我们总是倾向于用美国的成功等同于标普500的成功来看待一切。

We have such a tendency to look at everything through the lens of the success of America is the success of the S and P.

这是一个很有误导性的指标，因为它不衡量PSA。

It's such a damaging metric because it doesn't measure PSA.

它也不衡量肥胖率。

It doesn't measure obesity.

它不衡量焦虑。

It doesn't measure anxiety.

它不衡量，你知道，年轻人中普遍缺乏目标感的情况。

It doesn't measure, you know, less a general sense of purpose among young people.

我相信人工智能对社会将是净正面的。

And I believe AI is gonna be an a net positive for society.

我认为它会提高生产力。

We're gonna be I think it's gonna increase productivity.

我们会想出新的想法、新的医疗方法，加快药品的研发周期。

We're gonna come up with new ideas, new medical treatments, faster cycle time for pharmaceuticals.

我认为，只要我们处理好风险和监管，努力应对外部性，它将是净正面的。

I I think it's gonna be a net positive as long as we figure out the risks and the regulation to try and start the externalities.

你知道，我们通过监管和利用，已经能够控制核爆炸近八十年，我相信核裂变已经造福全人类。

We you know, we've been able to control nuclear detonation for almost eighty years with regulation and leverage and harness, I believe, nuclear fission to the benefit of all of mankind.

而真正的问题是，监管是否跟得上这项技术的发展。

And there's a real issue around whether what regulation is keeping up with this technology.

但是，认为一切都取决于这些股票是否会继续上涨，这种想法是不对的。仅仅因为你觉得这些股票不会继续上涨，并不意味着技术失败了，也不意味着你错了。

But the notion that everything comes down to whether these stocks are gonna continue to go up, okay, just because you don't think these stocks are gonna continue to go up doesn't mean that technology is a failure, doesn't mean you're wrong.

结果就是，我从来没有因为质疑风投投资组合中公司的估值而受到过这样的抵制和仇恨。

It turns into I have never received the type of pushback and hate as when I question the valuations of companies in a VC's portfolio.

他们会攻击你的人格。

And that is they attack your character.

他们不想进行真诚的辩论。

They don't wanna make a good faith argument back and forth.

不。

It's no.

整个世界都取决于OpenAI能否成功上市。

The whole world depends on whether or not OpenAI has a successful IPO.

不。

No.

不是这样的。

It doesn't.

而且，这些资本支出也有积极的一面。

And, also, there is a positive to all this CapEx.

谢天谢地。

Thank god.

或者说，美国总是愿意比别人更早地冲出去，这算是个特点而不是缺陷；股东们也愿意承受这种大幅回撤，因为我们喜欢冒险，也愿意承担这些风险。

Or it's it's a feature, not a bug, that America is willing to get out well ahead of its skis on a regular basis, and that shareholders are willing to incur these types of drawdowns because we like risk, and we're willing to take these risks.

大多数国家可不愿意冒这种险，而我们能从中受益。

And most nations aren't willing to take these risks, and we benefit.

我们会从这个资本支出中受益。

We will benefit from this CapEx.

我觉得这可能会引起一些波动。

It may, I believe, cause some volatility.

市场可能会出现回调。

The market might be a drawdown.

在我看来，很多投资者在未来一到两年里，至少会损失掉不少账面收益。

I think a lot of investors, in my view, are likely to lose a lot of at least paper gains in the next twelve to twenty four months.

投入铁路的资本支出其实超前了不少。

The CapEx that went into railroads was well ahead of where it should have been.

这让股东们亏了不少钱。

It cost shareholders a lot of money.

不过我们都从这些投资中受益了。

We have all benefited from that CapEx.

互联网领域的资本支出当时在投资者眼里简直疯狂得不理性，但我们也从中获益了。

The CapEx in the Internet, which got hysterical and irrational from an investor standpoint, we have benefited from.

所以，就算标普真的出现我预计的那种回调，我依然认为，美国这种敢于冒险的文化带来了实实在在的社会效益，而且我们愿意进行这类大规模的资本支出。

So even if the S and P has the kind of drawdown I think it's gonna have, I would still argue there's real societal benefits from the fact that America is a risk aggressive culture, and we make these types of extraordinary CapEx.

你知道的，这可不是像环球电信或者那些九十年代末因为电信基础设施泡沫而破产的公司留下的废铁，那些东西早就没用了。

You know, it's not the steel in the ground from Global Crossing or whatever, you know, these companies that imploded from these telco infrastructure in the late nineties.

我觉得，我们现在依然能从当年那些非理性的投资中获益。

We're still registering, I think, benefit from those irrational investments.

这里有很多值得肯定的地方。

There's a lot to like here.

但是，那种认为人类所有的好处、进步或繁荣都跟标普指数的涨跌挂钩的想法，我不太认同。

But the notion that everything about the the benefit or the the progress or prosperity of humanity is all linked to whether the S and P goes up or down, I don't know.

我早就跟你说过，我觉得你们这一代人会受益于一次，怎么说呢，理性的回调，这样你们就能像我年轻时那样，以同样的入场点买入优质公司。

I've said to you for a long time, I think your generation would benefit from what I call, I don't know, a sane correction such that you have the same entry point into great companies that I had as a younger man.

因为网上所有的舆论、吹捧和嘲讽，如果你不说“哦，440亿美元收购X是合理的”，所有的嘲讽都指向一个方向，那就是现有股东希望股价继续上涨。

Because all the narrative and all the pumping and all the shaming online, if you don't say, oh, a $44,000,000,000 acquisition of X made sense, all of the shaming is one thing, and that is the current equity holders want this thing to go higher.

而舆论就是，好吧。

And the narrative is, okay.

我们需要理性的人来问，这会不会是像迈克尔·伯里那样的崩盘？

We need rational people to say, you know, is it kind of the Michael Burry, like, implosion?

可能不会。

Probably not.

是不是那种永远上涨的永久牛市？

Is it the Perma bull things go up forever?

不是。

No.

可能介于两者之间吧。

It's probably somewhere in between.

让我受不了的是，现在好像只要你继续吹捧，你就是好人、好公民。

And what I can stand is the the narrative is you're a good guy and a good citizen if you're continuing to pump.

但如果你想理性地讨论一下现在市场可能被高估了，那你就有问题。

But if you wanna have a rational conversation about maybe shit's overvalued right now, there's something wrong with you.

你就是反美。

You're anti American.

没错。

Exactly.

我们只是想搞清楚真相。

All we're trying to do is to get to the truth.

真的，我在这里就是想做这件事。

Like, that's literally all I'm trying to do here.

这些公司的实际价值到底是多少？

What is the actual value of these companies?

这些大型科技公司的实际公允价值估算到底是多少？

What is the actual fair value estimate for these big tech companies?

我们有没有考虑到，它们的人工智能增长实际上只依赖两家公司？

Have we considered the fact that they're relying on two companies alone for their AI growth?

它们现在的增长全部来自那里。

That's where they're getting all of their growth right now.

还有，我们有没有考虑到，它们依赖的那两家公司目前并不赚钱，如果它们没法继续从股市无限期地筹集数十亿美元，它们很可能就会倒闭，而这种现象已经开始出现了。

And have we considered the fact that those companies that they're relying on aren't making money and could easily go out of business if they can't keep raising billions of dollars ad infinitum from the equity markets, which we're already starting to see.

你看看Anthropic这周从黑石集团借了360亿美元。

Look at Anthropic going and borrowing $36,000,000,000 from Blackstone this week.

这就是我们想说的全部。

I mean, that's all we're trying to do.

你一提到这个，我觉得你不应该因为我们做这个而感到冒犯。

And as soon as you say that, I mean, you shouldn't be so offended by that by us doing that.

你明白吗？

You know?

我们只是想搞清楚真相，这不应该是什么冒犯的事。

Like, it shouldn't be an offensive thing that we're trying to get an understanding of the truth.

这没什么。

It's it's fine.

如果我们错了，那就证明我们错了。

If we're wrong, then we'll be proven wrong.

但这就是我们在这里想做的。

But that's all we're trying to do here.

我们想弄清楚这里的实际价值是什么。

We're trying to get an understanding of what actually is the value here.

而且似乎每个人都很敏感，因为他们脑子里有这些故事，如果你开始戳破这些故事的任何一个漏洞，他们就会非常不高兴，因为他们觉得这是他们翻身的机会。

And it seems that everyone's so sensitive because they have these stories in their heads, and they get very upset if you decide to start poking any any hole in that story because I guess they believe that this is their ticket out.

但就像重力一样，迟早会来的。

But it's like gravity's gonna come at some point.

所以我觉得我们应该理性地讨论这些问题。

So I think we should be having a rational conversation about all of these.

关于这一点，我觉得值得问一个问题，就是我们现在提到一些AI焦虑。

On this point, I think it's worth asking the question, like, you know, we're bringing up some of the AI anxiety right now.

我一直在问自己的问题是，这种焦虑在多大程度上已经被市场定价了？

And the question that I keep asking myself is to what extent is that anxiety priced into the markets right now?

我觉得答案就是，基本上这周市场大涨的时候，这种焦虑越来越被忽视了。

And I think that the answer is that as of basically this week when the markets went way up, the anxiety is increasingly being ignored.

所以如果我们只看一些市盈率，微软已经达到27倍市盈率，我觉得现在估值已经相当充分了。

So if we just look at some of the multiples, Microsoft is up to 27 times earnings, which I think at this point, it's pretty fully valued.

你知道的，我买这只股票的时候是3.80美元。

I mean, you you know that I bought the stock at $3.80.

从那以后涨了30%，所以挺好的。

It's up 30% since then, so that's great.

但我一直想看的基准是，这些公司在AI热潮之前是怎么交易的？

But, I mean, the the the benchmark that I keep trying to look at is how did these companies trade before the AI boom?

答案是上周，微软的交易价格低于AI之前的市盈率。

And the answer is last week, Microsoft traded lower than its multiple pre AI.

这周，它的交易价格更高了。

This week, it trades higher.

我们以Meta为例。

We look at Meta as an example.

Meta这家公司，我觉得焦虑已经反映在股价里了。

Meta is a company company that I think the anxiety is priced in.

它的市盈率是22倍。

It's trading at 22 times earnings.

在AI热潮之前，它的市盈率是31倍。

Pre AI, it was trading at 31.

所以，这家公司我认为投资者在审视情况时，心里想的是：我们不确定AI的投资回报会从哪里来，我觉得这很好。

So that's a company where I think investors are looking at the situation saying, we're not sure where the arrow ROI is gonna come from, which I think is great.

我觉得现在这只股票里有一些理性的成分。

I think there's some rationality built into that stock right now.

但是，你知道，谷歌和亚马逊现在变得非常贵，尤其是谷歌。

But, you know, Google, Amazon, they're getting very expensive at this point, especially Google.

而且看起来投资者们确实在找各种理由，就为了回避整个AI可能行不通的这种可能性。

And it does seem that investors are looking for any reason whatsoever to just kind of shirk away the possibility that this whole AI thing won't work out.

所以这正是我们需要密切关注的事情。

And so that's really what we have to keep an eye on.

我觉得我们还没到完全疯狂的地步，但确实像你说的，市场有点过热了，这一点我们得承认。

I don't think that we're we're in totally crazy town, but I do think that that it's, as you say, it's quite frothy, and that's something that we have to acknowledge.

我不知道。

I don't know.

我觉得我们已经完全处于疯狂状态了。

I think we're firmly in crazy town.

说得对。

Fair enough.

我认识你的一些朋友，他们是有才华的年轻人，为自己的公司融资，估值能达到十亿美元，而且还真能融到。

When, I know friends of yours who are talented kids raising money for their companies at billion dollar valuations, and get it.

我也经历过那种情况。

I was there.

你知道吗？

You know?

1997年或98年，我为Red Envelope融资，估值1.2亿美元，基于营收。

In 1997 or '98, I raised money for Red Envelope at a $120,000,000 valuation on revenues.

我忘了具体是多少。

I forget what it was.

但当时，我很乐意为此辩护，并谈论为什么我们会值十亿美元，而且瑞士信贷第一波士顿还在讨论让我们上市。

But and at the time, I was happy to defend it and talk about why we were gonna be worth a billion dollars, and Credit Suisse First Boston was talking about taking us public.

当你身处疯人院并从中受益时，你永远不会觉得自己处于疯狂之中。

You're you're never you don't feel what you're in crazy town when you're in the asylum and benefiting from it.

我的意思是，所以，但是，是的，按任何合理的标准来看，这确实，你知道，随便你怎么称呼它。

I mean so but, yeah, on any reasonable metric any reasonable metrics, this does, you know, whatever you wanna call it.

对我来说，这感觉就像，是的，我们已经正式搬进疯人院并定居下来了。

This to me feels like, yeah, we've officially moved in and taken up residence in crazy town.

这几乎每周都在变化。

It almost changes week to week.

我觉得你说得对。

I think you're probably right.

就像这周，我们处在疯狂状态。

It's like, this week, we're in crazy town.

上周市场完全不一样，这也是问题的一部分。

Last week, it was a very different market, and this is part of the problem.

每周波动太剧烈了。

The volatile is so insane week to week.

亚马逊公布财报后，单日股价涨了15%。

The fact that Amazon reports its earnings, and then it goes up 15% in a single day.

说真的，现在很难判断我们到底处于什么位置。

Like, I mean, it's almost hard to gauge where actually we are at this point in time.

但我同意你的看法，这周，也就是2026年8月6日星期四，我们录制的时候，确实处在疯狂状态。

But I think I will agree with you that in this week, on August 6, Thursday Thursday, August sixth of twenty twenty six, which is when we're recording this, we are in crazy town.

不过我觉得明天或下周可能又会变回去。

But I could see it swinging back tomorrow or the next week.

现在真的很难判断。

It's very, very hard to gauge at this point.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

想要更多市场内容，请在 profgmarkets.com 订阅我们的新闻通讯。

And for even more markets content, sign up for our newsletter at profgmarkets.com.

本期节目由 SoFi 赞助播出。

Support for the show comes from SoFi.

教育可能是你对自己最有价值的投资之一，但如何支付这笔费用是一个重大的财务决策。

Education can be one of the most valuable investments you can make in yourself, but figuring out how to pay for it is a huge financial decision.

好消息是，在旅程的每个阶段你都有选择。

The good news is you have options at every stage of that journey.

这就是 SoFi 的用武之地。

That's where SoFi comes in.

无论你是准备上学、已经入学，还是想更好地管理现有的学生贷款，SoFi 提供的贷款解决方案都旨在帮助你自信地前进。

Whether you're getting ready to head off to school, already enrolled, or looking for a better way to manage the student loans you already have, SoFi offers lending solutions that are designed to help you move forward with confidence.

如果你要支付学费，SoFi 的私人学生贷款可以帮你覆盖学校认证费用的 100%，包括学费、书本费、住宿费等。

If you're paying for school, SoFi private student loans can help cover up to a 100% of your school certified costs, including tuition, books, housing, and more.

你可以在网上几分钟内查看你的利率，而且没有任何费用，包括手续费或滞纳金。

You can check your rate online in minutes, and there's no fees required, including origination or late fees.

如果你已经有学生贷款，用 SoFi 进行再融资可以帮你节省数千美元的利息，减少每月还款额，并帮助你更快还清贷款。

And if you already have student loans, refinancing with SoFi could save you thousands in interest, reduce your monthly payment, and help you pay down your loan sooner.

你也可以将多笔贷款合并为一笔简单的每月还款，而且在线查看利率只需几分钟。

You can also consolidate multiple loans into one simple monthly payment, and checking your rate just takes a few minutes online.

前往 sofi.com/profgstudent 探索你的选择，今天就开始吧。

Head to sofi.com/profgstudent to explore your options and get started today.

SoFi 学生贷款由 SoFi Bank NA 提供，FDIC 成员。

SoFi student loans are originated by SoFi Bank NA, member FDIC.

其他条款和条件适用。

Additional terms and conditions apply.

NMLS 696891。

NMLS 696891.

请理性借贷。

Please borrow responsibly.

本节目由BCX赞助，BCX是私营科技公司的公开股票代码。

Support for the show comes from BCX, the public ticker for private tech.

几代以来，美国公司凭借其聪明才智和决心推动世界前进。

For generations, American companies have moved the world forward through their ingenuity and determination.

同样，几代以来，普通美国人也能通过也许是最伟大的创新——美国股市——参与这一进程。

And for generations, everyday Americans could be a part of that journey through perhaps the greatest innovation of all, The US stock market.

无论你是底特律的工厂工人还是奥马哈的农民，任何人都能拥有伟大美国公司的一部分。

It didn't matter whether you were a factory worker in Detroit or a farmer in Omaha, anyone could own a piece of the great American companies.

但现在情况变了。

But now that's changed.

如今，我们最具创新力的公司选择保持私有，而不是上市。

Today, our most innovative companies are staying private rather than going public.

结果是，普通美国人被排除在投资之外，被抛在后面，而少数人却独享所有好处，直到现在。

The result is that everyday Americans are excluded from investing and getting left further behind while a select few reap all the benefits until now.

现在介绍VCX，私人科技公司的公开股票代码，现在在任何买股票的地方都能买到。

Introducing VCX, the public ticker for private tech, now available wherever you buy stocks.

Fundrise的VCX让每个人都有机会投资下一代创新，包括引领AI革命、太空探索、国防科技等领域的公司。

VCX by Fundrise gives everyone the opportunity to invest in the next generation of innovation, including the companies leading the AI revolution, space exploration, defense tech, and more.

更多信息请访问getvcx.com。

Visit getvcx.com for more info.

网址是getvcx.com。

That's getvcx.com.

投资前请仔细考虑投资材料，包括目标、风险、费用和开支。

Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses.

这些信息和其他信息可以在基金的招股说明书中找到，网址是getvcx.com。

This and other information can be found in the fund's prospectus at getvcx.com.

这是付费赞助。

This is a paid sponsorship.

本节目由以下赞助商支持：经营企业已经够难了，何必再用一堆互不兼容的应用程序来增加难度呢？

Support for this show comes from Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other?

介绍一下Odoo。

Introducing Odoo.

这是你唯一需要的商业软件。

It's the only business software you'll ever need.

它是一个一体化的集成平台，让你的工作更轻松。

It's an all in one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier.

客户关系管理、会计、库存、电子商务等等。

CRM, accounting, inventory, ecommerce, and more.

最棒的是什么？

And the best part?

Odoo以极低的成本替代多个昂贵的平台。

Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost.

这就是为什么成千上万的企业已经转向了Odoo。

That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch.

那你为什么不试试呢？

So why not you?

免费试用Odoo，请访问odoo.com。

Try Odoo for free at odoo.com.

就是odoo.com。

That's odoo.com.

欢迎回到Prof G Markets节目。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

上周是SpaceX上市后首次锁定期结束，员工和早期投资者首次有机会出售股票。

Last week marked SpaceX's first post IPO lockup expiration giving employees and early investors their first opportunity to sell shares since the company went public.

总共有超过9.11亿股内部股票可以交易，流通股数量翻了一倍多。

In total, more than 911,000,000 insider shares became eligible to trade, more than doubling the free float.

锁定期结束后，股价相对稳定。

The stock was relatively stable following the expiration.

就在几天前，SpaceX公布了上市以来的首份财报。

That came just days after SpaceX reported its first earnings as a public company.

从表面上看，业绩相当亮眼。

On the surface, the results looked impressive.

营收同比增长了92%，但投资者并不满意，财报公布后股价下跌了8%。

Revenue surged 92% year over year, but investors weren't satisfied, and the stock fell 8% after the report.

在录制这段节目时，股价大约在109美元左右。

At the time of this recording, the stock is trading around a $109.

它已经从历史高点下跌了52%。

It's down 52% from its all time high.

所以我现在要好好庆祝一下。

So I'm gonna take my victory lap right now.

这是我在IPO之前的预测。

This was my prediction before the IPO.

一旦上市，SpaceX的股价会立刻暴涨25%。

As soon as it hits the market, SpaceX stock will immediately explode 25%.

不过我的另一个预测是，在六个月内，可能更早，SpaceX的股价会腰斩。

However, my other prediction is that within six months, probably sooner, SpaceX stock will be cut in half.

为什么？

Why?

因为估值完全不合理。

Because the valuation makes no sense whatsoever.

确实被腰斩了。

It has indeed been cut in half.

从每股225美元的高点下跌了52%。

52 percent down since its high of $225 per share.

我们也会聊聊财报。

We'll get into the earnings as well.

不过，斯科特，你对这个股价走势的第一反应是什么？

But maybe, Scott, your initial reactions to this stock price movement.

这是个好生意。

It's a good business.

火箭业务，还有星链，或者说火箭业务之上的产品，星链的收入增长了66%，达到43亿美元。

The the the the rocket business, Starlink and the or the product on top of the rocket business, Starlink revenue was up 66% to 4,300,000,000.

那是帕兰提尔季度收入的两倍。

That's double what Palantir's quarterly revenue is.

用户数量增长了一倍，达到1200万。

Subscriber growth doubled to $12,000,000.

但问题是，好的业务如果估值过高，再加上这层厚厚的、可能成功也可能失败的巨大赌注，就麻烦了。

But the problem is great businesses that are overvalued with this thick layer of this enormous bet that may or may not be paying off.

AI资本支出一个季度增长了550%，达到180亿。

AI CapEx was up 550% to 18,000,000,000 in one quarter.

所以SpaceX现在的资本支出比甲骨文还多，也比埃克森美孚多，而且这部分业务目前还没被验证，还在稀释本来表现不错的卫星业务。

So SpaceX is now spending more on CapEx than Oracle and more than Exxon for a a unit that is unproven right now, diluting a generally strong satellite business.

而且说到底，估值仍然高得离谱。

And then there's just the bottom line is the valuation is just still insane.

如果你不知道这家公司股价已经被腰斩，你不会觉得它被低估了，你反而会觉得它被高估了。

If you didn't know this company had been cut in half, you wouldn't think it's undervalued, or you wouldn't think it's you would think it's overvalued.

现在这个价格还是太荒唐了。

It's just it's still ridiculous right now.

另外，我觉得最负面的前瞻性指标，除了估值之外，还有一点关于受托责任的问题，就是他名义上是三家上市公司的CEO，却一天发20条推文。

In addition, the I think the most the most negative forward looking indicators is is in addition to just the valuation is kind of a point around the fiduciary here, and that is you have the nominal CEO of three public companies, and he's tweeting 20 times a day.

所以，对于管理三家公司的CEO来说，注意力是关键资源，而他并没有合理分配。

So attention is a is a key resource here for a CEO running three companies, and he's not allocating it correctly.

所以，我原本预测会有小幅的逼空行情，因为我认为通常在公司上市时，当我在公司董事会时，我们上市，收入通常会……

So, I thought my prediction was there'd be a tiny bit of a short squeeze because I thought the revenues typically, when you take a company public, when I've been on the board of companies, we go public.

我们知道第一季度的盈利会是什么样，除非我们知道第一季度的盈利报告会非常强劲，否则我们不会让公司上市。

We know what the first quarter earnings are gonna be, and we don't take the company public unless we know the first quarter earnings report is gonna is gonna be really strong.

这是一份强劲的盈利报告，但对于一家以常规价值权重交易的公司来说，强劲的盈利报告并不够。

This was a strong earnings report, but a strong earnings report for a company that's trading at a regular value weight.

市场在寻找任何理由打压这家公司，而且，我认为已经持有这只股票一段时间的现有股东也在寻找任何机会卖出。

The market is looking for any reason to take this company down, and, also, I think existing shareholders that have been in this thing for any distance of time are looking for any opportunity to sell.

因为，公平地说，他们可能已经获得了巨大的收益，这要归功于埃隆·马斯克。

Because they've probably, to Elon Musk's credit, registered enormous gains.

他们会想，好吧。

And they're like, okay.

尽管股价已经腰斩，我可能还赚了10倍或20倍。

Even though the stock's been cut in half, I might be up 10 or 20 x.

天哪，如果这家公司六个月后股价跌到12美元，我会很讨厌这种情况的，但这完全有可能。

Boy, am I gonna hate it if this company is at $12 in six months, Which it could be.

如果这家公司，或者说这只股票，现在交易在20美元，而你不知道它曾经到过210美元，你只要对它所处的行业以及该行业最成功公司的估值做个合理分析，就会发现20美元一股并不便宜。

If this company was straight if this stock was trading at $20 and you didn't know it had been at one point at 210, and you did any sort of reasonable analysis looking at the sectors it competes in what the most successful companies in that sector trade at, it wouldn't be cheap at $20 a share.

所以，我觉得任何卖出的机会，人们都会在这里算一笔账，然后说，对。

So any opportunity to sell, I would argue people are doing the math here and going, yeah.

而且你会看到，我认为需求方面唯一可能的买家，是那些锚定在2.30美元的人，他们会觉得，哦，这是个不错的入场点。

And what you will see, I think the only thing on the demand side will people who anchored off that $2.30 and go, oh, it's a good entry point.

当股价低于某个水平时，这是我作为投资者的一大缺点，我总是会想，好吧，如果我要买Snap的股票。

Where a stock traded below, and this is one of my flaws as an investor, I always think of, okay, if you know, I'm thinking about buying shares in Snap.

我认为Snap被严重高估了，而且我觉得总有一天，埃文必须从他这长达十年的幻觉中醒过来，他花了35亿美元去试图证明。

I think Snap is dramatically overvalued, and I think at some point, you know, Evan has to wake up from this this decade long hallucination where he's wasted $3,500,000,000 to try and prove.

他是史蒂夫·乔布斯。

He's Steve Jobs.

但他不是。

He's not.

他是马克·扎克伯格，而且这是个很棒的核心业务。

He's Mark Zuckerberg, and it's a great core business.

如果能让这个人把硬件部门分拆出去，或者减少他拿出去烧的钱，这是我在市场上看到的最容易赚五倍或十倍的机会。

It's the easiest five or 10 x I see in the marketplace if we can just convince this one guy to either spin the hardware unit or reduce the amount of money he's taking into the street and burning it.

但我觉得你得看基本面和估值，然后判断：上行风险不对称还是下行风险不对称？

But you have to look at, I think, at underlying fundamentals and valuations and say, is the asymmetric risk to the upside or the asymmetric risk to the downside?

我不觉得——再说一次，这只股票很刻薄。

I don't see and, again, this is a mean stock.

我看不出有任何合理的理由让这家公司重新值120倍营收。

I don't see any reasonable justification for how this company, again, goes back to being worth a 120 times revenues.

我就是想不通，怎么会有股东真心实意地愿意出这个价，除非马斯克又变戏法，开始说什么太空数据中心之类的，然后解释为什么行得通。

I just don't see how you thoughtfully find demand from different shareholders to do that unless Elon again pulls a rabbit out of the hat and starts talking about, I don't know, space you know, space data centers in space and why it works.

他试过。

And He tried.

那次财报电话会上，他确实想变好几个戏法，但我觉得我们学到的是，现在人们开始揭穿他了。

In that earnings, he tried to to pull many rabbits out of the hat, and I think what we learned is that people are now calling bullshit on him.

我来说说他说了些什么吧。

I'll just let me just tell you some of the things he said.

他说他们要在月球上建数据中心。

He said that they're gonna build data centers on the moon.

所以不只是轨道数据中心了。

So it's not just orbital data centers.

现在是月球数据中心了。

It's now it's lunar data centers.

他说那些月球数据中心将由人形机器人来维护。

He said that those moon based data centers are gonna be serviced by humanoid robots.

他还说他们的工厂将让人类能够，引用一下，把送往太空的智能规模扩大到地球经济的1000倍，甚至可能是一百万倍。

And he also said that their factories will allow humanity to, quote, scale to 1,000 times the economy of Earth in terms of intelligence launched to space, but probably maybe even a million times.

所以他确实在尝试你说的那种做法。

So he's trying to do what you're saying.

而且这也是唯一能让股价回到上市后几天那种高位的办法，基本上就是忽悠大家，挥舞魔法棒，开始谈论数据中心、太空、星际旅行，还有我们早就听腻了的他那些鬼话。

And it is the only way that they can get that stock back up to where it was in the few days after it went public is they basically just need to pull the wool over people's eyes and wave a magic wand and start talking about data centers and space and interstellar travel, all of the bullshit that we've gotten so used to coming out of him.

但我觉得大家现在开始烦了，因为这不再吸引人了。

But I think people are now getting sick of it because it's not compelling anymore.

就像你说的，他一半时间都花在推特上。

And as you say, he's spending half his time on Twitter.

他一半时间都在发推特，谈论觉醒主义、明尼苏达发生的事，天知道他在说什么。

He's spending half his time tweeting about wokeness or about things happening in Minnesota or god knows what he's talking about.

他同时是两家公司的CEO，特斯拉和SpaceX。

He's the CEO of two companies at the same time, Tesla and SpaceX.

我猜他现在也是xAI的CEO了。

I guess he's also the CEO of X AI now.

我猜他也是X的CEO，就是以前的推特，因为琳达·亚卡里诺已经离开了。

I guess he's also the CEO of of of X, formerly known as Twitter, because remember Linda Yaccarino left.

他们甚至还没找到接替者。

They haven't even found a replacement.

而且这还不算他在华盛顿做的那些破事，他现在承认那是错误。

And and that's in addition to all of the bullshit that he was getting up to in Washington, which he now admits was a mistake.

他说他当时对政治太投入了。

He says he got carried away with the politics.

我是说，这家伙的脑子真的坏掉了。

I mean, this guy's brain has genuinely rotted.

他完全疯了，我们在采访里都能看出来。

He's totally lost his marbles, and we see it in the interviews.

我觉得我们终于到了投资者至少开始意识到这一点的地步。

And I think we're finally reaching a point where investors are at least beginning to recognize that.

他们听到他说的话，听起来不像是什么懂未来的疯狂天才。

They're hearing the things that come out of his mouth, and they don't sound like some crazy genius who understands things about the future.

听起来就是个疯子，失去了对现实的把握，老实说也失去了自我。

They sound just like a crazy person who's lost his grip on reality and honestly lost his grip on his sense of self.

我觉得我们从股价上就能看出来。

I think we're seeing that in the prices.

特斯拉那边也能看出来。

We're seeing it in Tesla too.

今年以来已经跌了30%。

It's down 30% year to date.

这就是马斯克溢价在消失。

That's the Elon premium dying.

我觉得这就是正在发生的事。

I think that's what's happening.

我也希望自己能像别人一样早点行动，不过到现在我仍然觉得，做一篮子做空AI及AI相关公司的股票，可能是现在不错的对冲方式。

I wish I'd acted on this like anyone, and I still think a basket a basket of shorts around AI and AI adjacent companies is probably a decent way to hedge right now.

但马斯克这个梗，所有梗股最终都会变成普通的股票。

But the the Musk meme every meme stock eventually just becomes a stock.

就像我儿子告诉我的一个数据，我觉得特别有意思。

And it's like my son gave me this stat that I thought was so interesting.

他说没有人能在空中停留超过一秒钟。

He said that no one is ever able to stay airborne for longer than a second.

连迈克尔·乔丹也不行。

Even Michael Jordan.

这有点奇怪。

It's like it's weird.

他们能到0.95、0.97，甚至0.98，但似乎一秒的障碍，讽刺的是，最终重力总会赢。

They can get to point nine five, point nine seven, maybe even point nine eight, but it seems like the one second barrier, ironically, everyone eventually gravity wins.

重力从未被击败。

Gravity is undefeated.

我仍然相信股市的中长期表现。

And I still believe in the stock market over the medium and the long term.

重力从未被击败。

Gravity is undefeated.

最终，公司的估值会落在其所在行业的高端或低端，以及市场估值的高端或低端。

And, eventually, companies trade at the high or the low end of their sector, and the high or the low end of market, you know, market valuations.

这家公司最终也会如此。

That will eventually happen to this company.

现在正在发生。

It's happening now.

特斯拉就是一家把钢铁包在车轴上的汽车公司。

Tesla's an automobile company that wraps steel around, you know, around an axle.

它是一家很棒的公司。

It's a great company.

它应该排在汽车行业估值的顶端，这意味着它的股价还有70%到80%的下跌空间。

It should trade at the top of the automobile range, which means its stock has another 70 or 80% to fall.

SpaceX是一项了不起的业务。

SpaceX is an amazing business.

它是做火箭发射的。

It's a launch business.

它几乎是垄断的。

It has a near monopoly.

很好。

Great.

它会增长的。

It'll grow.

你知道，但它以24%的速度增长，或者说曾经以24%的速度增长。

It you know, but it's growing 24% or was growing 24%.

假设它翻倍。

Assume it doubles.

那也无法证明这个估值是合理的。

There's no way to justify the valuation.

它基本上就是太空中的康卡斯特，拥有惊人的发射能力，但重力总是赢。

It's basically Comcast in space with incredible launch capabilities, but gravity always wins.

嗯，他们甚至不再是太空公司了。

Well, they're not even a space company anymore.

他们甚至不想成为太空公司。

They don't even wanna be a space company.

他们是人工智能公司。

They're an AI company.

即使太空业务表现良好，即使连接业务——顺便说一句，这个业务正在蓬勃发展，而且我们很久以前就对星链持乐观态度，我们当时很兴奋。

Even if the space business is doing well, even if the connectivity business, which by the way is crushing and you and I were bullish on ages ago on Starlink, which we were excited about.

我是说，我不知道你还记不记得。

I mean, I don't know if you remember.

当我们开始听说SpaceX要上市时，我们对这家公司感到兴奋，那是一个令人耳目一新的时刻，我们觉得我们真的喜欢这个东西。

When we started hearing about SpaceX going public, we were excited about this company, and it was a moment it was a refreshing moment where we were like, we actually like this thing.

这个东西确实有道理。

This thing actually makes sense.

然后他们不得不把那些乱七八糟的东西塞进去，特别是AI。

And then they had to just stuff all the bullshit around it, specifically the AI.

现在我们在财报里看到了这一点，我也想谈谈这个。

And now we're seeing that in the earnings, which I also wanna get into.

他利用市场的兴奋和他工程能力，造就了历史上规模最大、估值最高的IPO之一，如果不是最高的话，来资助他对AI的愿景。

He's using the excitement in his ability to engineer what is one of the most overvalued IPOs in history at this size, if not the most overvalued given its size, to fund his vision for AI.

他可能是对的。

And he might be right.

这家伙是个有远见的人。

The guy's a visionary.

但就算他是对的，你买到的其实是一家AI公司，而且估值倍数比那些目前看起来比他公司更成功的AI公司还要高。

But even if he is right, you're buying essentially an AI company at a multiple to the AI companies that seem to be more successful than his company right now.

对。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

你看，如果参考OpenAI和Anthropic在最近一轮融资中的估值，看看它们的营收倍数是多少。

Mean, if you look at what are the multiples on revenues of OpenAI and Anthropic based on their most recent rounds of valuation.

它们是多少？

What are they?

大概是营收的十倍到二十倍。

Somewhere between ten and twenty times revenues.

但他这是在说，投资我的这家又 Comcast 又 SpaceX 的公司，其实它的人工智能业务很糟糕。

But he's saying invest in my my my Comcast and Space company that's really a bad AI.

它在人工智能领域其实是个落后者。

That's really a laggard in the AI business.

这就是我花钱的地方。

That's where I'm spending all the money.

这个估值就靠这个了。

That's what this valuation is dependent upon.

而且跟AI领域的其他玩家相比，这个投资在估值上简直糟糕透了。

And it's a it's a horrible investment compared to the other players in the AI space with respect to valuation.

所以，在某个价位上，几乎任何股票都值得买，不管它是什么行业。

So at some point, almost every stock is a good buy regardless of the business it's in.

同样，在某个价位上，任何股票都不值得买，不管它背后的业务有多强。

And at some point, every stock is a bad buy, you know, regardless of how strong the the underlying business is at the valuation.

这是一门生意。

This is a business.

在我看来，这是一家失败的——不，不能说失败——平庸甚至蹩脚的AI公司，却装成太空探索、火箭、网红股这些高大上的样子。

This is this is a failed, in my view, a I won't say failed, a mediocre or meddling AI company cosplaying a space exploration, all these big words, rocket, meme stock.

我觉得人们就像你说的，都在说这是扯淡。

And I think people are, like you said, are calling bullshit.

而且大多数股东都在想，我要在十二个月内赚到十倍而不是三倍的收益，所以都在抛售离场。

And most of the shareholders are thinking, I'm gonna clock my 10 x gain versus a three x gain in twelve months and and are getting out and selling.

我简直无法想象，随着这些股票解禁，这里会有多大的抛售压力。

I can't even imagine the amount of selling pressure that's gonna happen here as these unlock.

而且，他设置的所有额外增量锁定期也表明，他不相信市场能承受住，当前股价能承受住股东们如果能够自由卖出股票并自己做决定时带来的自然抛售压力。

And, also, all of the all of the additional incremental lockups he put in place indicate that he doesn't believe the market can support that the current price can support the natural selling pressure if shareholders were able to sell these shares and make their own decisions.

所以他让买入变得容易，但给卖出设置了障碍。

So he's made it easy to buy, but he's put in place friction around selling.

这让你对他的当前估值信心有什么看法？

What does that tell you about his confidence in the current valuation?

我想回到你刚才提到的财报中的一些数字，因为我觉得乍一看，这个季度似乎还不错。

I just wanna go back to some of the numbers you brought up in the earnings because I think at first, this seems like a pretty good quarter.

比如，他们的营收增长了92%，比预期要好。

Like, their revenue grew 92%, which was better than expected.

他们的运营亏损收窄到了大约1.43亿美元，而上一季度是20亿美元。

Their operating losses narrowed to around a $143,000,000 in losses versus last quarter where it was, like, 2,000,000,000.

所以，你知道，一开始看起来不错，但大家忽略或没注意的关键数字，后来一看到就突然注意到的，就是资本支出，上个季度是100亿美元。

So, you know, it looked good at first, but the key number that people forgot about or didn't acknowledge and then suddenly acknowledged when they saw it was the CapEx, which was $10,000,000,000 last quarter.

而这个季度，是185亿美元。

And this quarter, it was $18,500,000,000.

而且几乎全部都是用在AI上。

And almost all of that was AI.

所以基本上我们看到的是，SpaceX每产生1美元的收入，就要花2.35美元在资本支出上。

So essentially what we're seeing here is for every dollar that SpaceX is generating in revenue, they're spending $2.35 on capital expenditures.

所以如果他们继续按照我们现在看到的资本支出速度花钱，他们会在大约16个月内烧光从IPO筹集的860亿美元。

And so if they were to continue spending money at the pace that we're seeing in in terms of their capital expenditures, they will burn through the entire $86,000,000,000 that they raised from their IPO in about sixteen months.

所以他们现在非常非常快地耗尽资金。

So they're they're running out of money very, very quickly here.

所以每当我们看一个超大规模云服务商的运营支出时，我觉得我们现在得开始把SpaceX叫做超大规模云服务商了，任何建数据中心、并且他们的AI增长故事是建立在建数据中心和卖算力上的人，运营收入或运营亏损都不重要。

And so whenever we look at the operating expenditures for a hyperscaler, and I think that's what we gotta start calling SpaceX at this point, anyone who's building a data center and whose story about their AI growth comes from building data centers and selling compute, operating income or operating losses don't matter.

你只需要看资本支出，因为所有的钱都花在那里了。

All you need to look at is the capital expenditures because that is where all of the money is going.

他们在买芯片。

They're buying chips.

他们在购买大量长期资本密集型资产来建设这些业务。

They're buying big long term capital intensive assets in order to build out these businesses.

当你看到那个数字时，你突然意识到，等等。

And when you look at that number, suddenly you realize, hold on.

这事儿行不通。

This thing doesn't work.

至少现在行不通，而且将来能不能成，有点像白日梦。

At least it doesn't work right now, and it's kind of a pipe dream as to whether it'll work out in the future.

顺便说一句，他们将在不到一年半的时间里烧光所有IPO募资，这告诉你他们接下来必须做什么，那就是他们得再筹集大量股权，还要发行更多债务。

By the way, the fact that they're gonna burn through all of their IPO proceeds in, like, less than a year and a half, it tells you something about what they're gonna have to do next, which is they're gonna have to raise a shit ton more equity, and and more debt issuance too.

他们得卖更多债务，这就解释了为什么银行还在拍这家公司的马屁，因为银行知道这家公司还有巨额的交易费用可赚。

They're gonna have to sell tons more debt, which tells you why the banks are being still so sycophantic about this company because the banks know there's still huge deal making fees that are in this company.

他们想第一个去卖SpaceX的下一轮增发或下一轮债务。

They wanna be first up to sell SpaceX's next follow on offering or SpaceX's next debt round.

我的意思是，他们得筹集更多的资金。

I mean, they're gonna have to raise so much more money.

我觉得这就是为什么你看到一些大银行尽管在资本支出方面这个季度的表现相当惨淡，却依然上调了他们的目标价。

And I think that's why you saw some of these big banks actually raising their price targets despite a quarter that was quite frankly pretty miserable from a CapEx perspective.

这感觉就像是我发现自己色盲时的那种震惊程度。

It was like how surprised I was when I found out I was color blind.

说真的，埃德，这个消息来得完全出乎意料。

Literally, Ed, the news came out of the purple.

我觉得这儿得加点老爸式的幽默。

Just thought we needed a little dad humor there.

就是想调节一下气氛。

Just thought we needed to break up.

真是同病相怜啊。

Your woe is me.

没人欣赏我这种带着老爸式幽默的深思熟虑的空头观点。

No one appreciates my my thoughtful, bearish remarks with a little dad humor there.

埃德，你对SpaceX的判断是对的。

Ed, you got you got SpaceX right.

你还会被证明更加正确。

You're gonna even be proved more right.

而且就像我说的，我在思考教育的问题。

And and like I said, what I was thinking about education.

我最近一直在想高等教育的事情。

I've been thinking a lot about higher ed recently.

比尔·马赫说高等教育的问题在于你们在推行一种正统观念。

And Bill Maher was saying that the problem with higher ed is you guys are are promoting an orthodoxy.

但我觉得那不是问题所在。

And I'm like, that's not the problem.

问题在于高等教育的同质化，五分之四的教员表示他们认为保守派无法融入他们的教师队伍。

The problem is the homogenization of higher ed, and that is four out of five faculty members have said they don't think a conservative would fit into their faculty.

我亲眼见过这种情况。

And I've seen this firsthand.

我在纽约大学的系里，简直太政治正确了。

My department at NYU is just, like, so woke.

挺吓人的。

It's frightening.

我觉得这对孩子们是不利的，因为即使他们决定接受进步价值观，而且有证据表明，随着人们学习更多历史和科学知识，他们在接受高等教育的过程中往往会变得更进步。

And I'm like, this does the kids a disservice because even if they decide to adopt progressive values, and there's evidence showing that as people learn more about history and science, they do tend to skew more progressive as they go more higher education.

如果我们不给他们进行深思熟虑的对话的能力，去讨论对立的观点，反而开始教他们，持有不同政治观点的人在道德上有缺陷，那我们就害了他们。

We're doing them a disservice if, one, we don't give them the ability to have a thoughtful conversation around opposing viewpoints, and we start teaching them that having a different political viewpoint makes other people morally deficient.

同样的事情也发生在市场上，人们试图说，如果你不看好这些AI，不吹捧那些经常上CNBC的风险投资家的投资组合，以及整个从膨胀的市场、更多的交易和波动中受益的生态系统，那么你在道德上就有缺陷。

And the same thing's happening here in the in the markets, and that is people are trying to say that if you're not a bull on these AI and not pumping the portfolio of the VCs who are constantly on CNBC and the entire ecosystem that benefits from an inflated market and more trading and more volatility and up up in a way that somehow you're morally deficient.

不。

No.

我们需要在双方之间进行深思熟虑的对话，这样人们才能学习，变得更聪明，坦白说，也能稍微保护自己。

We need to have a thoughtful conversation on both sides such that people learn, are smarter, and quite frankly, protect themselves a little bit.

我希望我能和更多人进行更深入的对话，比如，斯科特，你是个有才华、勤奋的人。

And I wish I'd had more thoughtful conversations with people around, Scott, you are a talented, hardworking person.

你为这些收入很少的公司筹集这么多钱，这说不通。

It makes no sense that you're raising this kind of money for these companies, which have little revenue.

你应该多卖一些，分散投资，并且意识到现在很多成功并不是你的功劳，事情变化会很快。

You should sell more, and you should diversify and realize a lot of this success right now is not your fault and that things can change fast.

而且，我在想，我被邀请了。

And, I mean, I was thinking about I got invited.

让我们把话题转回我自己，Ed。

Let's bring this back to me, Ed.

99年，我被邀请去达沃斯。

In '99, I got invited to Davos.

我当时就像个摇滚明星。

I was a like, a rock star.

我被邀请去给全球最大的40家能源公司的CEO们演讲。

I was invited to speak to the 40 largest, the CEOs of the 40 largest energy companies in the world.

我在给沙特阿美、埃克森和壳牌的CEO们讲话，他们问我怎么经营企业，而我才33岁。

I was speaking to the CEOs of Saudi Aramco and Exxon and Shell, and they were asking me how to run a business, and I was all of 33.

到了2001年，也就是第三年，我又被邀请回去了。

By 2001, the third year, I was invited back.

我连个会都约不上，因为大家真的觉得我是个骗子。

I couldn't get a meeting because people literally thought I was a criminal.

哦，你就是那个硅谷来的骗子，筹了钱然后全亏光了。

Oh, you're one of those fraudsters from Silicon Valley that raised money and lost it all.

实际上，你知道，双方进行一场有深度的对话是很有帮助的，无论是对于创业者、投资者，还是对所有人来说，进行一场理性的对话都是有益的。

And the reality is, you know, it's just helpful to have a thoughtful conversation on both sides, both for the entrepreneur, for investors, you know, for everyone just to have, you know, a rational conversation.

如果你是个看涨自己股票的乐观派，你并不是坏人。

You're not a bad person if you're a bull talking up your own stocks.

好吧。

Fine.

如果你觉得市场已经过热了，你也不是坏人。

You're not a bad person if you think things have gotten way too frothy.

但我在你这个年纪时没有真正意识到的一点，也是我想对正在听的企业家们说的，就是市场动态永远会压过个人表现。

But the thing I didn't I really didn't appreciate when I was your age and advice to entrepreneurs listening is market dynamics will always trump individual performance.

我犯的错误是，以为只要我全身心投入，高度专注，事情就一定能成。

And the mistake I made was thinking that if I just threw myself at something, be highly concentrated, it will work out.

不是的。

No.

有时候，你的成功不是你的功劳，失败也不是你的错。

Sometimes sometimes your success isn't your fault, and neither is your failure.

在91年，我没有自己想的那么聪明。

And in '91, I wasn't as smart as I thought.

到了2001年，我也不是大家想的那么蠢。

And by 2001, I wasn't as dumb as everyone else thought I was.

但我觉得，这种双向的对话，或者说双方都能得到充分表达，真的很重要。

But I think these conversations that are two sided, if you will, or both sides get accurate representation are really important.

话虽如此，各位，这里只有一种声音。

And having said that, folks, there's only one side here.

这事儿要黄了。

This shit's coming down.

对不起。

I'm sorry.

这事儿要来了。

This shit is coming down.

好好享受吧，趁现在还能享受。

Enjoy it enjoy it while it lasts.

如果你持有这些公司的股票，而且有盈利，我会想尽办法锁定部分利润，然后投到非常无聊的东西上，至少离AI交易远远的。

And if you have shares in any of these companies and you you're sitting on a gain, I would do everything I could to lock in some of those gains and putting in put it in really boring shit right now that is least at least an arm's distance away from the AI trade.

不过，反正我是在做你所说的……我自相矛盾了。

But, anyways, I'm doing what you're I'm I'm I'm contradicting myself.

嗯，不过说到你的观点，我觉得Leopold Aschenbrenner和《情境意识》那件事就是个完美的例子。

Well, just to to your point though, I feel like Leopold Aschenbrenner and and what happened with situational awareness is the perfect example.

这也是Michael Green上周来节目时告诉我们的，就是说，你不应该给一个24岁的年轻人200亿美元。

And this is what Michael Green was telling us on when he was on the show, last week where it's like, you shouldn't be giving $20,000,000,000 to a 24 year old.

那不会带来什么好结果。

That that's that's not gonna lead to to a great place.

而且你经常说，如果你反复告诉一个24岁的年轻人他是耶稣，他很容易就会相信你。

And as you often said, like, if you tell a 24 year old enough times that they are Jesus, they are inclined to believe you.

而且，我在想，他的基金在一周内就崩溃了，这对他的人生造成了什么影响，因为他确实说服了自己。

And, I mean, I wonder what it's done to his life that his fund collapsed in the matter of a week because he did convince himself.

他相信了那些投资者试图灌输给他的炒作，然后用外汇杠杆去投资市场上最热门的股票。

He bought the hype that a lot of the investors were trying to tell him, and he went forex leverage on the hottest stocks in the market.

然后你猜怎么着？

And then what do you know?

整个事情就崩溃了。

The whole thing comes crashing down.

我觉得这就是你描述的那种情况的一个完美例子，炒作实际上对很多人来说是有害的。

Like, I think it's a perfect example of the thing that you're describing where the pumpery actually turns out to be a negative for a lot of people.

它确实会造成长期的财务损失和心理伤害。

It actually does a lot of both financial damage and then also psychological damage long term.

因为，是的，现在人们会说，哦，利奥·阿申布伦纳是个骗子。

Because, I mean, yeah, people now say, oh, Leo Leopold Ashenbren is a fraud.

他就是那个山姆·班克曼-弗里德。

He's the he's Sandbankman Fried.

他就是伊丽莎白·霍姆斯。

He's Elizabeth Holmes.

其实他只是个管钱的小伙子，而人们一直给他钱。

And it's like he was just a kid who was managing money, and people kept giving him money.

所以他就继续做自己想做的事。

And so he kept doing what he wanted to do.

利奥波德没做错什么。

Leopold didn't do anything wrong.

我的意思是，他可能有点鲁莽。

I mean, he might have been reckless.

他可能有点不自量力。

He might have been out over his skis.

但如果一个24岁的年轻人能筹集到200亿美元，指望AI交易继续上涨，然后他加了巨大的杠杆，我……不，我不知道。

But if a 24 year old can raise $20,000,000,000 hoping that the AI trade keeps going and he puts on massive leverage, I I no.

真正的傻瓜是那些决定投资一个五倍杠杆基金的人，就凭一个24岁年轻人所谓的洞察力。我见过天才。

The the idiots here are the people who decided to invest in a fund that was five x based on a 24 year old supposedly insight into the I've met geniuses.

他们也是普通人，同样受市场波动影响。

They put their pants on one leg at the same time, and they're subject to the same market volatility as the rest of us.

我才不管你有多聪明。

I don't care how fucking smart you are.

如果标普500下个月跌40%，不管你拿了多少奖学金、多少奖项，你都会让你的股东损失很多钱。

If the S and P is off 40% over the next month, I don't care how many road scholar you know, whatever whatever prizes you've earned, you're you're gonna lose your shareholders a lot of your shareholders' money.

让我告诉你那是什么感觉。

And let me tell you exactly how it feels.

99年，99年中后期，大约24个人被一家私人飞机制造商邀请到一个机场看飞机，因为他们说愿意接受私营公司的股票来换飞机。

In '99, in mid late ninety nine, about 24 of us were invited by a private jet manufacturer to an airfield to look at jets because they said they were willing to take stock in private companies in exchange for planes.

我们都去了那个大机场，看了不同的飞机。

And we all went to this massive airfield, and we looked at different jets.

我们这些三十多岁的人都兴奋地说，哦，我想要那架。

And all of us in our kinda thirties were going like, oh, I I want that one.

我想要那架。

I want that one.

而且我当时确实有所谓的“意识”，觉得这玩意儿不会长久。

And I did have enough, quote, unquote, awareness at that point to go, this shit won't last.

我当时有自知之明，知道一群硅谷来的三十岁傻逼指着他们想要的飞机，这不会长久。

I was self aware enough to go that a bunch of 30 year old douchebags from Silicon Valley pointing at jets they want, that that wasn't gonna last.

不到十二个月，我的会计告诉我我的净资产为负，我应该考虑卖掉房子。

By within twelve months, my accountant told me I had negative net worth and I should consider selling my house.

就在那一刻，当我进行那次对话时，我清楚地记得我在哪里。

And and that moment, when I had that conversation, I remember exactly where I was.

我当时在办公室，像个先知一样。

I was in the office as a prophet.

我记得我在想，我需要回家和我妻子谈谈可能不得不卖掉我们房子的可能性。

I remember thinking, I need to go home and have a conversation with my wife around the possibility of having to sell our house.

而十二个月前，我还在告诉她我打算买的那个计划。

And twelve months before that, I was telling her about the plan I was gonna we were gonna buy.

我记得当时在想，让我告诉你。

And I remember thinking, so let me tell you.

我是说，新婚妻子，正在规划未来。

Let me tell I mean, new wife, building a future.

她拼命工作。

She's working her ass off.

她拼命工作。

She's working her ass off.

你开始考虑要孩子了。

You're starting to think about kids.

哦，亲爱的，我们要买一架挑战者300。

Oh, we're honey, we're buying a challenger 300.

哦，等等。

Oh, wait.

我们可能得卖掉房子了。

We may need to sell our house.

所以让我告诉你，这真的很糟糕。

So let me tell you, it sucks.

我觉得他的情况有点不同，因为我想他赚了那么多钱，应该不用卖房子，他应该已经赚够了费用，除非他做了什么蠢事，比如用自己的投资组合加杠杆。

I think his situation is a little bit different because my guess is he's made so much money that he's not gonna have to sell his house, that he's been able to clock enough fees unless he unless he did something stupid like leveraged his own portfolio.

这确实有很多声誉风险和损害，但他会没事的，因为他显然是个非常聪明的人。

It's a lot of reputational risk and damage, but he'll be fine because he's clearly a very intelligent person.

在我们的社会里，美国的一个好处就是我们喜欢原谅。

And in our society, one of the wonderful things about America is we love to forgive.

他呢，你知道，他胸前会挂着一个红字一段时间，但他还是能筹到钱的。

He'll you know, he'll have a scarlet letter on his chest for a while, but he'll be able to raise money.

如果亚当·纽曼能筹到几亿美元去买公寓，然后叫它“flow”，假装这是什么新鲜事，其实不过是买公寓，这本身是个好生意，你知道，美国的好处之一就是我们喜欢给人第二次机会。

If if Adam Newman can raise hundreds of millions of dollars for to go buy apartments and call them flow and pretend it's something new or different than just buying apartments, which is a good business, you know, that's one of the wonderful things about America is we love to give people a second chance.

我希望他不要像我一样陷入同样的财务困境，但毫无疑问。

And I hope he's not in the same financial position I was, but there's no doubt about it.

这绝对会搞乱你的，特别是，我想作为一个年轻人，在某些方面，年轻人更容易，因为你有更多时间恢复。

It absolutely fucks with your especially, I think I'm trying to think as a young man, in some ways, it's easier for a young man because you have more time to recover.

我那时候有点，我不想这么说，我有点反社会，就是不太有那种意识。

And I was a bit I don't wanna I was a bit sociopath, and that is I just wasn't that cognizant.

我不在乎风险。

I didn't care about risk.

我差点被UCLA开除三次，但我一点都不在意。

I almost got kicked out of UCLA three times, and it didn't bother me.

如果我真的被开除了，那后果会很严重。

If I'd been kicked out, it would have been really bad.

虽然会很严重，但我就是不太在乎。

It would have been but I just kinda didn't care.

从零岁到三十岁，我几乎没有焦虑感。

It's like from zero to 30, I did not have enough anxiety.

我就像梦游一样过日子。

I was sleepwalking through life.

我从不担心自己行为的后果或风险。

I wasn't worried about the ramifications of my actions or risk.