加拿大经济学家：特朗普的关税是马克·卡尼的礼物

在人工智能时代，你必须从源头阻止网络攻击，所以安全必须融入基础设施本身。

In the AI era, you have to stop cyber attacks where they start, so security has to be fused into the infrastructure itself.

这就是为什么连接一切的网络也是你最好的防御。

That's why the network that connects everything is also your best defense.

思科，人工智能时代的关键基础设施。

Cisco, the critical infrastructure for the AI era.

我是伊娜·加滕。

I'm Ina Garten.

在我的新播客《与伊娜的欢乐时光》中，我会邀请非常有趣的嘉宾来纽约的厨房餐桌旁，和我一起喝一杯，聊聊天。

On my new podcast, happy hour with Ina, I'm inviting really interesting guests to join me for a drink and a fun conversation at my kitchen table in New York City.

我会和我敬佩的厨师、演员、喜剧演员、音乐家和作家进行私人交流。

I'll be getting personal with chefs, actors, comedians, musicians, and writers I admire.

所以，拿点零食，拉把椅子，加入我们吧。

So grab a snack, pull up a chair, and join us.

在YouTube或任何你收听播客的地方订阅《与伊娜的欢乐时光》。

Subscribe to Happy Hour with Ina on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.

从9月16日起，每周三都会有新一期节目上线。

New episodes will be available every Wednesday starting September 16.

本期节目由BCX赞助播出，BCX是私人科技公司的公开股票代码。

Support for the show comes from BCX, the public ticker for private tech.

美国股市开启了历史上最伟大的财富创造浪潮，从底特律的工厂工人到奥马哈的农民。

The US stock market started history's greatest wave of wealth creation from factory workers in Detroit to farmers in Omaha.

每个人都可以拥有伟大的美国公司的一部分。

Anyone can own a piece of the great American companies.

但如今，我们最具创新力的公司保持私有状态的时间更长了，这意味着普通美国人一直错过投资机会，直到现在。

But today, our most innovative companies are staying private longer, which means everyday Americans are missing out until now.

现在推出VCX，一个私人科技公司的公开股票代码，现在可以在任何购买股票的地方购买。

Introducing VCX, a public ticker for private tech, now available wherever you buy stocks.

更多信息请访问getvcx.com。

Visit getvcx.com for more info.

网址是getvcx.com。

That's getvcx.com.

投资前请仔细考虑投资材料，包括目标、风险、费用和开支。

Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses.

这些信息及其他信息可以在基金招募说明书中找到，网址是getvcx.com。

This and other information can be found in the fund's prospectus at getvcx.com.

这是一条付费赞助。

This is a paid sponsorship.

一万七。

17,000.

我会在旁边。

I'll be on the side.

我的货币市场账户已经达标了。

My money market's met.

如果金钱是邪恶的，那么那栋楼就是地狱。

If money is evil, then that building is hell.

演出继续。

The show goes on.

压力从来不会看着节目卖出去。

The pressure never watched the show sell.

欢迎收听《Prof G Markets》。

Welcome to Prof G Markets.

我是Ed Elson。

I'm Ed Elson.

今天是9月9日。

It is September 9.

我们来回顾一下昨天的市场动态。

Let's check-in on yesterday's market vitals.

由于中东紧张局势，主要股指下跌。

The major indices declined on tensions in The Middle East.

布伦特原油价格升至每桶99美元以上。

Brent crude rose above $99 per barrel.

十年期国债收益率攀升。

The yield on ten year treasuries climbed.

最后，SpaceX上涨了4%，因为有报道称，本月纳斯达克100指数重新调整时，它的权重可能会增加。

And finally, SpaceX rose 4% amid reports that its weighting in the Nasdaq 100 may increase this month when the index rebalances.

好的。

Okay.

还有什么其他新闻？

What else is happening?

加拿大正在对美国进行反击，实施自己的关税。

Canada is striking back against The US with tariffs of its own.

新的关税税率从15%到50%不等，覆盖了大约200亿美元的美国商品。

The new levies range from 15 to 50%, covering around $20,000,000,000 worth of American goods.

对美国钢铁、铝和铁产品的关税翻倍至50%，其他目标产品包括家具、服装、家电和乳制品。

Tariffs on US steel, aluminum, and iron products doubled to 50%, and other targeted products include furniture, clothing, appliances, and dairy.

此举是对特朗普上个月对加拿大征收50%关税的报复。

The move is payback for the 50% tariff that Trump levied against Canada last month.

两国之间的贸易谈判在8月底破裂，现在马克·卡尼承诺，引用他的话，"对特朗普的欺凌进行反击，""一美元对一美元，一税率对一税率。"

Trade talks between the two nations fell apart at the end of August, and now Mark Carney is pledging to, quote, hit back against Trump's bullying, quote, dollar for dollar, rate for rate.

今天我们请到了加拿大经济学家、Missing Middle Initiative 的创始董事 Mike Moffatt，来和我们聊聊这次贸易升级对美国和对加拿大意味着什么。

Joining us to discuss what this escalation means for The US and for Canada, we're speaking with Mike Moffatt, Canadian economist and founding director of the Missing Middle Initiative.

Mike，很高兴再次见到你。

Mike, it's great to see you again.

感谢你参加我们的节目。

Thanks for joining us.

我想从最开始说起。

I'd love to just start at the very beginning.

我们有一段时间没聊美加贸易战了，但这个问题一直在持续。

We haven't talked about the Canada US trade war for a while, but it's an ongoing situation.

这一切是怎么开始的？

How did this all begin?

夏天的时候又是怎么再次激化的，我们又是怎么走到今天这一步的？

How did it flare up again over the summer, and how did we arrive at this moment?

这个问题问得很好。

It's a great question.

我觉得加拿大人都在问自己这个问题。

I think Canadians are asking themselves, that question.

就是，我们到底做了什么要受这种罪？

Like, what do we do to deserve this?

但其实这种情况在特朗普第一次当选之前，或者至少在他2017年第一次就职之前就已经存在了。

But this has been happening, before, Trump was elected, the first time or at least before he was inaugurated the first time in, 2017.

时不时就会有这种紧张局势。

There have been these flare ups, from time to time.

我们看到美国，特别是在特朗普第二届政府期间，对多种商品加征了额外关税。

We've seen The US put additional, tariffs, particularly under the second Trump administration on a variety of goods.

夏天有过谈判，但加拿大退出了。

There was negotiations over the summer, and Canada walked away from those.

目前还不完全清楚，你知道，到底什么是导火索。

It's not entirely clear, you know, what the sort of tipping point was.

你知道，部分原因是加拿大不想通过媒体进行谈判，但听起来特朗普政府在加拿大和美国之间的协议上提出了一些最后一刻的修改，而加拿大政府实在无法接受，所以我们就走到了今天这一步。

You know, part of it is, Canada not wanting to negotiate through the media, but it sounded like there were some last minute changes that the Trump administration put on a deal between Canada and The US, that the administration just couldn't abide to, so we find ourselves here today.

所以那些谈判就破裂了。

So those negotiations break down.

马克·卡尼退出了谈判，因为有些我们不太清楚的事情进展不顺利，至少在他看来是这样。

Mark Carney walks away from them because something that we're not totally clear on wasn't going correctly, at least in his view.

然后特朗普的决定就是

And then Trump's decision is

加征关税。

tariffs.

谈判基本上就是为了取消这些关税。

The negotiations were basically to take those tariffs off.

所以特朗普政府威胁要加征200亿美元的关税。

So the Trump administration had threatened these $20,000,000,000 in tariffs.

我们，加拿大，去找政府试图达成协议。

We had gone Canada had gone to the administration to try and work out a deal.

然后我们就退出了。

Then we walked back.

再说，原因其实不太清楚。

Again, it's it's kind of unclear, why.

有各种说法，比如协议里关于汽车的部分，或者加拿大能不能签其他贸易协定。

There's stories around, what was in the deal's terms of automotive, or Canada's ability to sign other trade deals.

而且，你知道，跟其他国家一样，加拿大被加关税也不会就这么忍着。

And, you know, like any other country, Canada wasn't just going to sit there when it had tariffs put on it.

所以，卡尼政府基本上是对等回应，你加多少我也加多少。

So, the Carney administration kind of matched dollar for dollar.

有些关税基本上是对等的。

Some of those tariffs are, you know, basically reciprocal.

你对我们加50%，我们也对你加50%。

So you put 50% on us, we'll put 50% on you.

但其他的关税更有针对性，针对摇摆州，针对加拿大经常从美国进口但不是100%依赖的地方，我们有点选择，可以从美国、日本或者欧盟买。

But others are a little bit more targeted towards, swing states, towards areas where Canada often buys, you know, not a 100% of its imports from The US, where we have a little bit of choice to buy from say The US or Japan or the EU.

所以想法是，我们不想让加拿大的物价涨太多，而是如果加拿大人能从日本或欧盟买，那就能减轻这些关税的影响。

So the idea is that we don't want to raise Canadian prices as much, but instead if Canadians can buy from Japan or EU instead, that should dampen the the effect of these tariffs.

这些关税目前对经济有什么影响？

What is the economic impact of these tariffs at this point?

对美国经济以及加拿大经济来说，影响有多大？

How significant is it for The US economy and then also for the Canadian economy?

嗯，对加拿大的打击肯定更大。

Well, it's certainly a bigger hit, for Canada.

我们的经济规模相对较小。

We're we're proportionately smaller.

我看到卡尔加里大学的特雷弗·图姆估计，如果这些关税持续一年，我们的GDP增长会减少大约0.3到0.4个百分点，这可不妙。

I've seen, Trevor Toome at the University of Calgary has estimated that if these, continue for a year, we shave about three to four tenths of a percent off of GDP growth, which isn't, fantastic.

不过，卡尼在时机上运气不错。

Now Carney's the beneficiary of a little bit of luck here though in terms of good timing.

他现在很受欢迎。

He's, quite popular right now.

他在民调中领先16个百分点。

He's ahead 16 points in the polls.

加拿大最大的出口商品之一是石油，西部精选原油的价格从伊朗行动前的每桶约50美元涨到了每桶80美元。

And one of Canada's biggest, exports is oil, and the price of Western Canadian Select has gone from about $50 a barrel prior to the actions in Iran to $80 a barrel.

所以，你当然不想让GDP减少0.3个百分点，但如果非得在某个时候承受这个，现在其实不是个坏时机。

So you never wanna take a three tenths of a point percentage point hit to GDP, but if you had to do it at some point, now's really not a bad time.

看起来这里几乎陷入了僵局，不知道谁会先让步，谁会放下自尊。

It seems as though there's almost a stalemate here, between who's going to back down and who's going, I guess, put their pride aside.

我不确定这样看是否合适。

I'm not sure if that's the right way to look at it.

但你觉得这种情况会持续下去吗？

But would you expect that this is something that will continue for the foreseeable future?

我当然不希望这样。

Well, I I certainly hope not.

我希望加拿大和美国能达成协议。

I I hope that Canada and US, can can come to a deal.

我觉得在加拿大有一些希望，即将到来的中期选举可能会促使美国提出一个我们能接受的协议。

I I think there is some hope in Canada that, the upcoming midterms, might get, The US to come forward with a a an agreement that that we can live with.

但与此同时，总理卡尼下周要去欧盟。

But in the meantime, we've got, prime minister Carney going to the EU next week.

我们听到了一些关于加拿大和欧盟达成协议的传闻，虽然还没到欧盟成员国的程度，但两国之间的融合会很紧密。

We've, heard rumblings of a deal between Canada and the EU, which is not quite at the level of EU membership, but a close integration with the two countries.

所以我觉得这就是加拿大现在的策略，我们仍然想和美国达成协议，但也在探索B计划，同时努力实现贸易多元化。

So I think that's how Canada's playing it now that we still want a deal with The United States, but we're also exploring plan b and and trying to diversify our trade in the meantime.

这周最火的视频之一，是特朗普在Truth Social上发的一个AI生成的卡通视频，画面上他在冰上用曲棍球棒打马克·卡尼。

One of the most viral videos of the week this week has been a video that Trump posted on social media, on Truth Social, and it's it's like an AI generated cartoonish video of him beating Mark Carney with a hockey stick, on the ice.

你对那个视频有什么反应？

What is your reaction to that video?

它确实挺火的。

It's gone pretty viral.

很多人对此非常不满。

A lot of people are very upset about it.

这件事有多严重？加拿大对此有什么反应？

How significant is it, and what is Canada's reaction to that video?

我们当然不高兴，但我觉得加拿大人想采取的态度就是，我们不应该上钩。

We're certainly not, happy about it, but I I think Canadians are trying to take the position that we just shouldn't take the bait.

对吧？

Right?

这是想激怒我们。

That this is an attempt to go to us.

所以就是那种，我们开始生气，然后就想，好吧，深呼吸。

So it's one of those things where we start to get angry and then we go, okay, deep breaths.

冷静下来。

Let's just calm down.

你知道，这就是特朗普想从加拿大人这里得到的反应。

We don't you know, this is the what Trump is trying to get from Canadians.

所以我们稍微冷静一下，但我们当然不高兴。

So let's let's calm a little bit, but we're certainly, not happy about it.

而且，讽刺的是，当这种事情发生时，反而会有一种团结效应，卡尼本人会更受欢迎。

And there is, you know, ironically, when those things happen, there is kind of a rally around the flag and Carney himself gets more popular.

所以如果美国政府想逼加拿大签协议，这可能是最糟糕的做法，因为这只会让卡尼在加拿大人眼中更受欢迎，也让他更有底气拒绝一份糟糕的协议。

So if the administration is trying to force Canada to sign the deal, this is probably the worst possible thing to do because it just makes Carney more popular in the eyes of Canadians and gives Carney more ability to to back away from a bad deal.

对。

Yeah.

这确实是我得到的印象。

That has certainly been my takeaway.

看起来每次特朗普想打压马克·卡尼，因为加拿大是个小国，基本上就是欺负人。

It seems as though every time Trump tries to punch basically what looks like down on Mark Carney because Canada is a smaller nation.

他好像想用这种霸凌手段。

It seems like he's trying to do this make it make this bullying tactic or something.

结果人们反而更喜欢马克·卡尼了。

People just like Mark Carney more.

他们更喜欢加拿大了。

They like Canada more.

看起来一直是这样。

It seems like that is consistently what has been happening.

我们之前也看到过类似的情况，比如把安大略湖改名为美国湖。

We saw the same thing with changing the name of Lake Ontario to Lake America.

看起来人们普遍更支持特朗普想当作敌人的加拿大。

It seems as though people are generally more supportive of the, quote, unquote, enemy that Trump wants to make out of Canada.

马克·卡尼现在有多受欢迎，其中有多少是因为特朗普试图欺负他？

How popular at this point is Mark Carney, and how much of that popularity is a function of Trump's attempts to bully him?

我觉得相当多。

I I think quite a bit.

根据我最近看到的Nanos民调，马克·卡尼的自由党支持率是47%，保守党是31%，而且你知道，和英国一样，我们是一个多党制国家。

That right now, the latest polling I saw from Nanos has the Liberals of Mark Carney's party at 47%, the Conservatives at 31%, and, you know, like The UK, we are a multi, party country.

所以16个百分点的领先是巨大的。

So a 16 lead is massive.

我认为其中很大一部分原因是，那些不一定是保守党的人，还有很多保守党人，现在都把票投给了自由党。

And I think a lot of that is, you know, all of the the folks who aren't necessarily Conservatives and many Conservatives are parking their votes, with the liberals right now.

如果你看看关于对这些反制关税的回应民调，非保守党选民的支持率高达90%到95%。

And if you look at polling about the response, to these terror the the counter tariffs, you know, Canadians who are non conservative voters support them in, you know, 90 to 95%.

这真是压倒性的。

It's it's overwhelming.

你没法让加拿大人在任何事情上达成90%到95%的共识。

You can't get Canadians to agree on 90 to 95% on anything.

但他们在这一点上达成了共识。

They agree on that.

甚至保守党人也差不多是五五开。

And even conservatives are about fifty fifty.

所以总的来说，我觉得加拿大人喜欢总理的做法，这在民调结果中体现出来了。

So overall, it you know, I think Canadians like what the prime minister is doing, and it's showing up in the polling results.

还有特朗普发的那张病毒式传播的图片，是一张美国地图，但把加拿大、墨西哥和格陵兰都包括进去了，上面还盖着一面美国国旗。

There was also the viral image that Trump posted of a map of The US, but then it includes Canada and Mexico and Greenland, and it's got, like, a US flag covering all of it.

基本上，这些都是我们的。

Basically, all of this is ours.

现在加拿大还有人喜欢他吗？

Is there anyone in Canada who likes him at this point?

比如说，这种情况真的存在吗？

Like, is that does that even exist?

确实存在。

It does.

我觉得大概有15%的人口是这样，而且其中大约一半是我刚才提到的保守派选民，确实有一群人喜欢特朗普。

I would say it's about 15% of the the population, and it's about half of those, conservative voters that I that I mentioned, that there is a a cohort, that, you know, likes, likes Trump.

他们通常非常保守。

They, you know, tend to be quite conservative.

他们往往对加拿大感到有些不满。

They tend to, you know, have been just sort of frustrated with Canada.

他们一直希望加拿大在税收和社会问题等方面更像美国。

They've always wanted Canada to be more like The United States when it comes to, you know, taxation and social issues and so on.

所以这种情况确实存在，但大概是85%对15%的比例。

So that does exist, but it's, you know, about an 85, 15 split.

我觉得我们大多数人对于特朗普政府相当不满，这让我们不幸地比一两年之前更加反美了。

I think most of us are quite upset with the Trump administration, and it has made us unfortunately more kind of anti American than we were a year or two ago.

就后果和对全球经济实际影响而言，你提到加拿大和欧盟现在似乎正在制定一项全面的新协议，以回应美加之间缺乏伙伴关系的状况，看起来全球秩序正在重新调整，远离美国。

Just in terms of consequences and what this will actually mean for the global economy, you mentioned how Canada and the EU are now working on a new all encompassing deal seemingly as a response to the lack of partnership between The The US and Canada, and it seems as though the global order is kind of rerouting itself away from The US.

你觉得这就是我们全球经济正在走向的方向吗？

Would you say that that is kind of the direction that we are headed as a as a as a global economy?

对。

Yeah.

我觉得是这样。

I I think so.

而且在加拿大这里，即使明天就达成协议，不确定性还是很大。

And, here in in Canada, like, even if we had a deal tomorrow, there's just so much uncertainty.

你知道，这个协议感觉就像是用铅笔写的，随时可能变。

You know, you know, the deal would feel like it was written in in pencil.

所以投资者和企业都在寻求多元化。

So investors and and businesses are looking to diversify.

加拿大以前大约80%的出口都是去美国的。

Canada used to about 80% of Canadian exports used to go to The United States.

几年前，这个数字降到了70%。

Couple years ago, it was down to 70.

现在又降到了大约67%。

It's now down to about 67%.

所以奇怪的是，特朗普政府某种程度上算是帮了我们一个忙，虽然方式有点奇怪，因为我们在加拿大一直说要实现贸易多元化。

So oddly, you know, the Trump administration's kind of done us a bit of a favor in a strange way because we've always talked in Canada about the need to diversify our trade.

现在我们真的在做了。

Well, we're actually doing it, now.

所以这里有点讽刺，尽管我们非常讨厌那些关税。

So there is some irony here as much as, you know, we we hate the, we hate the tariffs.

我们讨厌那些冰球视频梗。

We we hate the, you know, hockey video memes.

你知道，这确实在迫使我们做很多可能几十年前就该做的事情，但一直缺乏动力去做。

You know, we are it is kind of forcing us to do a bunch of things we probably should have done decades ago, but just never had the motivation to do it.

你觉得这还会带来哪些其他后果？

What are some of the other consequences that you think will come out of this?

我是说，有没有可能，比如说，这段关系真的永远无法修复了？

I mean, is it possible that, for example, the relationship could never really be repaired?

我是说，还有哪些其他的长期后果？

I mean, what are the other long term consequences?

我觉得在短期和中期内，我们会看到国防开支的变化。

I I think in the kind of short and medium term, I think we're going to see a shift in defense spending.

我觉得这可能会从这次欧盟协议中体现出来。

I think that may come out of the this this EU deal.

所以，你知道，加拿大几十年来一直在争论是否购买F-35。

So, you know, there's been this debate in Canada for decades about buying the f 35.

你知道，我们可能会看到这个计划被取消。

You know, we might see, see that go away.

我确实认为美加关系是可以修复的，但这需要时间。

I I do think the Canadian US, relationship is, repairable, but it's it's going to, it's going to take a while.

这需要几届政府展现善意，你知道的。

It will take, you know, kind of a few administrations of, you know, goodwill.

但是，你知道，我确实认为我们两国之间有太多共同点，不可能永远对立，但现在确实感觉是这样。

But, you know, I I do think our countries have too much in common, you know, to be forever at odds, but it certainly feels that way right right now.

就像，这真的感觉我们正在经历一场混乱而愤怒的离婚。

Like, this really does feel like we're we're going through a messy, angry divorce.

而且感觉很难和解，但我是一个乐观主义者。

And it does feel hard to reconcile, but I'm an optimist.

我当然希望我们能度过这个难关。

I'm certainly hopeful that, we can get through this.

你认为马克·卡尼最终在加拿大会留下什么样的遗产？

What do you think the legacy ultimately of Mark Carney will be in Canada?

嗯，这很难说。

Well, it's it's tough.

他上任才大约一年半，但几乎你不想把任何人比作温斯顿·丘吉尔，但这确实有点像战时领导人，这实际上让卡尼处于一个具有挑战性的位置，因为，你知道，现在他被视为能带领我们度过这场战争的领导人。

He's only, been in office about a year and a half, but it's almost you don't you don't wanna compare anybody to Winston Churchill, but it does kinda feel like this kind of wartime, leader, which actually puts Carney in in kind of a challenging position because, you know, right now he's seen as the leader who can get us through this war.

但是，一旦战争结束，会不会有人出现，成为当时的克莱门特·艾德礼呢？

But is somebody gonna come around and, you know, become the the Clement Attlee of the situation, one once the war is over?

所以，我们得看看二三十年后的情况，但我觉得他就是那个在动荡时期稳住局面的人。

So we'll we'll kind of see where we are twenty, thirty years from now, but I think that's how he's seen as as the kind of steady hand who's, you you know, keeping us through through this at a time of intense turmoil.

好的。

Alright.

迈克·莫法特是加拿大经济学家，也是“缺失中间层倡议”的创始主任。

Mike Moffatt is Canadian economist and founding director at the Missing Middle Initiative.

迈克，一直很感谢你抽出时间。

Mike, always appreciate your time.

谢谢。

Thank you.

不客气。

No.

谢谢你们的邀请。

Thank you for having

休息之后，我们来聊聊为什么世界各地的孩子变笨了。

After the break, why kids around the world are getting stupider.

嘿。

Hey.

大家好，最近怎么样？

What's up, guys?

我是Babish，在本周的《In The Booth》节目里，我请来了厨师、烹饪书作者，还有美食频道的传奇人物Alex Guarnaschelli。

It's Babish, and on this week's episode of In The Booth, I'm joined by chef, cookbook author, and Food Network legend, Alex Guarnaschelli.

我们会聊聊排骨、汉普顿，还有怎么做出一道让人想哭的意面。

We're talking about chops, the Hamptons, and what it takes to make a cry worthy pasta.

现在就可以在你收听播客的任何平台收听。

You can listen now wherever you get your podcasts.

本节目由Anthropic提供支持。

Support for markets comes from Anthropic.

日常工作中，要把所有事情都处理好可不容易，尤其是当你的数据任务和信息分散在无数个标签页和窗口里的时候。

Day to day work can be tough to keep together, especially when your data tasks and information are scattered across countless tabs and windows.

Cloud能把你需要的东西整合在一起，帮你解决复杂问题，让工作持续推进。

Cloud brings what you need together, helping you tackle complex problems and keep your work moving forward.

Claude 是为那些不满足于现状的头脑而生的 AI。

Cloud is the AI for minds that don't stop at good enough.

它是一个真正理解你整个工作流程并与你一同思考的伙伴。

It's the collaborator that actually understands your entire workflow and thinks with you.

无论你是在午夜调试代码，还是在谋划下一步商业举措，Claude 都能扩展你的思维，帮你解决重要的问题。

Whether you're debugging code at midnight or strategizing your next business move, Cloud extends your thinking to tackle the problems that matter.

你可以把繁琐的 bug 修复和探索新功能想法等任务交给 Claude，然后专注于其他工作，让 Claude 在后台运行。

You can delegate tasks to Cloud by tedious bug fixes and exploring new feature ideas, then you can focus on other work while Cloud runs in the background.

检查点功能让你可以保存进度并快速回到之前的状态，而定时工作流可以自动化重复性任务，比如每日报告、每周总结和定期数据拉取，帮助你的日常工作顺利进行。

Checkpoints let you save your progress and quickly return to an earlier state, while scheduled workflows can automate recurring tasks like daily reports, weekly summaries, and regular data pools, helping keep your day to day operations running smoothly.

对于值得解决的问题，请访问 claude.ai/markets 开始使用 Claude。

For problems worth solving, get started with Claude at claude.ai/markets.

网址是 Claude 点 AI 斜杠 markets。

That's Claude dot a I slash markets.

另外，看看 Claude Pro，它包含今天节目中提到的所有功能。

And check out Cloud Pro, which includes access to all the features mentioned in today's episode.

Claude.ai/markets。

Cloud.ai/markets.

本期节目由BCX赞助播出，BCX是私营科技公司的公开股票代码。

Support for the show comes from BCX, the public ticker for private tech.

几代人以来，美国公司凭借他们的聪明才智和决心推动着世界向前发展。

For generations, American companies have moved the world forward through their ingenuity and determination.

而几代人以来，普通美国人也能通过也许是最伟大的创新——美国股市——参与到这段旅程中。

And for generations, everyday Americans could be a part of that journey through perhaps the greatest innovation of all, The US stock market.

不管你是底特律的工厂工人还是奥马哈的农民，任何人都能拥有伟大美国公司的一部分。

It didn't matter whether you were a factory worker in Detroit or a farmer in Omaha, anyone can own a piece of the great American companies.

但现在，情况变了。

But now that's changed.

如今，我们最具创新力的公司选择保持私有，而不是上市。

Today, our most innovative companies are staying private rather than going public.

结果是，普通美国人被排除在投资之外，被远远甩在后面，而少数人却独享所有好处，直到现在。

The result is that everyday Americans are excluded from investing and getting left further behind while a select few reap all the benefits until now.

现在介绍VCX，私人科技公司的公开股票代码，现在在任何买股票的地方都能买到。

Introducing VCX, the public ticker for private tech, now available wherever you buy stocks.

Fundrise旗下的VCX让每个人都有机会投资下一代创新，包括引领AI革命、太空探索、国防科技等领域的公司。

VCX by Fundrise gives everyone the opportunity to invest in the next generation of innovation, including the companies leading the AI revolution, space exploration, defense tech, and more.

更多信息请访问getvcx.com。

Visit getvcx.com for more info.

就是getvcx.com。

That's getvcx.com.

投资前请仔细考虑投资材料，包括目标、风险、收费和开支。

Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses.

这些信息和其他信息可以在基金的招股说明书中找到，网址是getvcx.com。

This and other information can be found in the fund's prospectus at getvcx.com.

这是付费赞助。

This is a paid sponsorship.

我们回到Prof G Markets节目。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

经合组织昨天发布了全球教育报告卡，结果令人沮丧。

The OECD released its global education report card yesterday, and the results were dismal.

该组织的测试衡量了全球90多个国家15岁学生在阅读、数学和科学方面的表现。

The organization's test measures 15 year olds in reading, math, and science for more than 90 countries around the world.

今年的结果显示，过去十年平均阅读成绩下降了28分，大约相当于一年半的学校教育。

And this year's results revealed that average reading scores have fallen 28 points over the past decade, equal to roughly a year and a half of schooling.

与此同时，数学成绩下降了22分，科学成绩下降了大约10分。

Meanwhile, math scores are down 22 points and science roughly 10 points.

这三项都是经合组织有史以来记录的最低平均分。

All three are the lowest averages that the OECD has ever recorded.

美国的表现比大多数国家要好，但这并不值得夸耀。

America held up better than most countries, but that's not saying much.

美国阅读成绩下降了14分，这是美国有史以来最低的分数。

US reading scores fell 14 points, the lowest score America has ever posted.

数学成绩持平，正好在经合组织的平均水平上，科学成绩也持平。

Math was flat at exactly the OECD average, and science was flat as well.

美国也是所有受测国家中，高分学生和低分学生差距最大的国家之一。

The US also had one of the widest gaps between its highest and lowest scoring students of any country tested.

那么这对美国的教育体系意味着什么，对国际经济又可能意味着什么呢？

So what does this mean for the American education system, and what might it mean for the international economy?

为了回答这些问题，我们请到了《金融时报》的专栏作家兼首席数据记者约翰·伯恩-默多克。

Here to answer these questions, we are speaking with John Burn-Murdoch, columnist and the chief data reporter for The Financial Times.

约翰，感谢你来到《Prof G Markets》节目。

John, thank you for joining us on Prof G Markets.

我想先听听你对这份全球教育报告的看法，阅读分数十年内下降了28分，数学下降了22分。

I'd love to just start with your reactions to this global education report card reading down 28 points in a decade, math down 22.

看起来，不仅美国的孩子，全世界的孩子都变笨了。

It seems like children, not just in America, but around the world are frankly getting stupider.

我想问题在于，这对我们其他人意味着什么。

And I guess the question is what that means for the rest of us.

你怎么看？

What do you think?

对。

Yeah.

你看。

Look.

我的意思是，这些数字非常惊人。

I mean, the numbers are very striking.

在这样大规模的国际数据中，看到如此急剧的恶化，确实很不常见。

This it's really not very common that we see such a drastic deterioration in a massive international dataset like this.

我觉得这次特别令人惊讶的是，三年前我们拿到上一批类似数据时，很多人说，没错，情况变差了，但毕竟我们刚经历了疫情。

And I think something that's particularly surprising this time is that three years ago when we got the equivalent data, the last batch of these results, a lot of people said, right, things have got worse, but we've just been through a pandemic.

学校教学被打乱，学习过程受到一些干扰也是意料之中的。

Schools were disrupted, you're gonna expect some disruption to the learning process from that.

但三年过去了，不仅没有部分恢复，甚至没有保持稳定，反而持续下滑。

Three years on, instead of a partial recovery or even stability, we see sustained decline.

你提到的这些数字，实际上在过去十年里，相当于数学和阅读方面损失了两年的教育成果。

The numbers you're talking about here, we're looking really at over the past decade, a decline equivalent to two years of lost education in mathematics and reading.

这些数字真的非常惊人，也非常有意义。

Like these are are really, really striking and really, really meaningful.

这些不是毫无意义的数字，它们反映了全球年轻人和儿童实际可测量的更差结果。

These are not just meaningless numbers, they reflect really measured measurable worse outcomes for young people and children around the world.

正如你所说，涉及这么多国家，范围如此广泛，这一点也非常重要。

As you say, the fact that this is so broad based in terms of the number of countries is really significant as well.

但这并不是某个地方某项特定政策的清晰故事。

But this is not a clear story of a particular policy in a particular place.

这比那要广泛得多，广泛得多。

This is much, much, much more broad based than that.

所以，是的，我认为我们看到的这些担忧反应是完全合理的。

So, yeah, I think, the concerned reactions we're seeing to this are completely justified.

那么，你觉得现在是什么在推动这种情况？

So what do you think is driving this at this point?

我是说，情况一直在恶化，然后最近变得更糟了。

I mean, things were getting worse, and then recently they got dramatically worse.

我猜很大一部分原因是疫情带来的技术影响。

I assume a lot of it is COVID technology.

那发生这种情况的原因是什么呢？

What are the reasons that this is happening?

对。

Yeah.

你看。

Look.

现在有很多种说法。

There's a bunch of theories out there.

而且，我觉得重要的是，大家都一致认为情况确实在变糟。

And, again, I think the significance of this is that there's real agreement that things are going wrong.

所以，发布这些数据的经济合作与发展组织也附带了一些评论。

So the OECD who produced these numbers have also put out some commentary accompanying this.

这不仅仅是人们在寻找一个负面的、令人担忧的故事。

This is not just sort of people looking for a negative alarming story.

这些都是教育领域的资深专业人士，他们说这里确实有问题的迹象。

These are seasoned professionals in the education space who are saying that there are real signs of problems here.

有些人甚至把矛头指向了人工智能可能扮演的角色。

Some are pointing fingers even at potential role for AI.

所以，作为今年或去年评估的一部分，今年的结果，他们实际上研究了年轻人使用AI与其表现之间的关系。

So as part of this year or last year's assessments, this year's results, as part of this, they actually looked at the relationship between young people's AI use and their performance.

在一项特定的分析中，他们发现，在孩子们中间，我们这里主要说的是15岁的孩子。

And in one particular piece of analysis, they found that among children, so we're mainly talking about 15 year olds here.

所以，在那些经常使用AI的15岁孩子中，他们总结教育文本的能力明显不如那些不使用AI的孩子。

So among 15 year olds who are pretty regular users of AI, their ability to summarize educational texts was significantly worse than people who don't use AI.

即使他们试图调整那些可能解释这一现象的因素，比如可能使用较少AI的人来自更富裕、教育背景更好的家庭，即使在控制这些因素之后，仍然存在这种联系。

And even when they had tried to adjust for the kinds of things that might explain that, like maybe the people who use less AI are also from better off, more educated backgrounds, Even after controlling that, there was a link there.

所以一种可能性是，其中一部分原因是，就在过去一两年里，一些年轻人使用AI来帮助他们的作业，这意味着当AI被拿走时，他们就会遇到困难。

So one possibility is that some of this is that just in the last year or two, some young people are using AI to help with their work, which that means when it's taken away, they struggle.

这与我们从其他国家、其他年龄段看到的许多关于AI对人们吸收和保留信息能力的影响的结果是一致的。

That would match with a lot of results we've seen from other countries, other age groups, in terms of the impact AI has on people's ability to absorb and retain information.

另外，你提到了新冠疫情。

In addition, you mentioned COVID.

我确实认为新冠疫情可能还在起作用，因为三到五年前学校确实经历了严重的混乱。

Now I I certainly think it's possible that COVID is still playing a role in the sense that we did see that significant disruption three, four, five years ago in schools.

有些影响可能已经补回来了，但有些可能一直存在。

Some of that may have been caught back up, but some of it may have maintained.

除此之外，还有其他一些混乱也一直延续下来。

There were other disruptions that have continued from that as well.

所以有一小部分学生，在疫情期间封锁时不再正常上学，之后也一直没有真正恢复。

So a small number of students, of school students, stopped attending school regularly during their COVID lockdowns and never really got back into it.

所以所有这些因素都在起作用。

So all of that is going on.

然后我觉得我们确实需要指出更广泛的数字媒体和数字信息环境的影响。

And then I think we do need to point to the role of the broader digital media, digital information environment.

所以，这又是OECD在报告中自己提到的一点。

So, again, this was something that the OECD picked up on in the report themselves.

他们发现，越来越多的年轻人在做这些测试时，飞快地浏览题目，然后结果非常糟糕。

They found that an increasing share of young people when they're doing these tests are skimming through them super fast and then getting really bad results.

所以，确实有证据表明，人们消费信息的方式发生了变化，那种在社交媒体上不断刷到的碎片化信息，和做数学、阅读、科学考试时需要分析的长篇文章是完全不同的。

So there's there's certainly evidence that changes in how people consume information, the endless sort of stream of nuggets of information that people now encounter on social media, that is very different to the longer form pieces of text that people need to analyze when doing math, reading, science exams.

所以所有这些因素似乎都在起作用。

So all of these things do seem to be playing a role.

所以我真的很想请你来聊这个话题，毕竟这不是一个教育类播客。

So the reason I really wanted to have you on to talk about this, I mean, this is not an education podcast.

这是一个市场类播客。

This is a markets podcast.

我们关注金融。

We cover finance.

我们关注经济。

We cover economics.

但对我来说，这确实是一个经济故事，因为如果年轻人变笨了，他们的阅读成绩下降，数学成绩下降，科学成绩下降，在我看来，未来最大的影响之一就是GDP增长和经济生产力会受到巨大打击。

But to me, this really is an economic story because if young people are getting stupider, if their reading scores are going down, their math scores are going down, their science scores are going down, to me that seems like one of the biggest impacts that we'll see is in the future, we'll see a huge hit to say GDP growth and economic productivity.

如果我们有一个社会，人们不太懂得如何合作、如何沟通、如何解决数学、科学和技术上的难题，那在我看来就是一个极其低效的社会，对市场会产生实实在在的影响。

If we have a society of people who don't really know how to work together, how to communicate, how to solve hard problems in math and science and technology, then that to me sounds like an extremely unproductive society to me that has real impacts on the markets.

它基本上对一切都产生实实在在的影响。

It has real impacts on basically everything.

所以我想问你的问题是，我们的领导人对这个问题的重视程度，是否和我看到的一样高？

So I guess my question to you is, is this problem being taken as seriously as I see it by our leaders?

我们又在多大程度上采取了实际措施来解决它呢？

And to what extent are we taking measures to actually address it?

这确实是个严重的问题，但我可能会从更全面的角度来看待它。

It's definitely a serious problem, but I would look at it perhaps in a more holistic view.

我认为这是生活中任何地方都会遇到的问题，只要涉及到理解细节、权衡取舍、批判性地思考信息的质量。

I think this is a problem just anywhere in life where the ability to understand details, to think about trade offs, to think critically about the quality of information.

任何涉及这些方面的地方，都会成为问题。

Anywhere where that comes in, this is gonna be an issue.

所以这会影响经济，影响政治体系的运作，影响我们彼此之间的互动。

So that affects the economy, it affects the functioning of political systems, it affects how we interact with each other.

也许我可以说一个更有争议的观点，那就是我觉得其中一些东西对经济的影响可能比我们想象的要小。

More perhaps controversial take, as it were, that I could give to this is that I think some of this stuff actually may matter less than we think for the economy.

所以我最近为《金融时报》做了一项分析，我注意到美国成年人的识字率远低于英国，但美国经济的表现却比英国好得多得多。

So an analysis I did recently for the Feet, I looked at the fact that US rates among adults, rates of literacy in America are much lower than they are in The UK, but the American economy performs much, much, much better than the British.

所以最极端的例子是，在美国成年人口中，那些功能性文盲，即无法阅读或理解甚至非常基础文本的人，他们的平均收入与普通英国人相同。

So the extreme version of this is that among the subset of the American adult population who are functionally illiterate, unable to read or understand even quite basic texts, they earn on average the same amount as the average Brit.

所以我觉得现在有一种观点认为，推动经济的关键在于你顶尖人才的教育表现。

So I think there is this sense now that what matters to drive the economy is how your very, very top performers do educationally.

而在像美国这样的国家，至少在过去，你吸引了世界各地最熟练、最有才华、最聪明的人，正是这些人创办公司，塑造经济。

And in a country like The US where you, in the past at least, have taken in some of the most highly skilled, talented, brightest people everywhere in the world, those are the people who start the companies to shape the economy.

所以需要明确的是，我绝对不是说这不是一个非常重要的衰退。

So to be clear, I'm not I'm absolutely not saying that this is not a really important deterioration.

我认为这非常重要。

I think it's massively important.

它告诉我们很多事情正在出错，但就对经济的影响而言，我实际上并不完全确定这会如何发展。

It tells us that a lot of things are going wrong, but in terms of impact on the economy, I'm actually not entirely sure how this will pan out.

我认为让年轻人得到他们需要的教育，并且能够吸收他们需要的信息，这对我们所有人都有利，正如我所说，在生活的方方面面都是如此。

I think it's in all of our interest that young people are getting the instruction that they need and are able to absorb the information they need, as I say, in many, many, many domains of life.

但奇怪的是，经济可能恰恰是我们最后看到这种影响显现的地方之一。

But weirdly, it may actually be that the economy may be one of the last places that we see this start to show up.

不过，这确实指向了另一个经济问题，那就是不平等问题。

To that end though, it does seem to speak to a different economic problem, which is the inequality problem.

如果只有一小部分人接受了良好的教育，真正动脑解决难题，创造巨额财富，那么从数字上看，这对GDP是有好处的，但如果财富分配越来越不均，那就不太好了，而这正是我们正在看到的情况。

If you have a smaller subset of individuals who are getting a good education, who are actually using their brains and then solving hard problems and then creating immense amounts of wealth, then that is technically good for GDP as a number, but it technically isn't great if the spoils are spread increasingly unevenly across the population, which is indeed what we're seeing.

但更重要的是，这份报告也反映了这一点。

But also more importantly, that is what we saw in this report too.

我的意思是，教育不平等是这份报告中最突出的数字，在美国，科学成绩最好的学生和最差的学生之间相差近300分。

I mean, the the inequality of education was the number that stood out most, for The US, nearly 300 points between the top and the bottom students in science.

我很想听听你对这份成绩单中体现的教育不平等的看法，不是针对其他国家，而是特别针对美国。

I'd be interested to get your perspective on the educational inequality that seems to be coming through in this report card, not so much for the other countries, but specifically for The United States.

我觉得你说得完全对。

I think that's exactly right.

我觉得不平等正是我看待这个问题的角度。

I I think equality inequality is exactly the way that I would look at this.

我们看到美国在读写能力和教育表现方面的不平等正在扩大，远不止这次的结果。

And we're seeing a broader widening of inequality in literacy education performance in The US, well beyond this result.

美国每年都会进行各种其他考试，尤其是阅读评估，已经持续了几十年，最底层的10%学生确实在落后。

The various other exams, assessments of reading in particular in The US that are done every year and have been done for decades, the bottom 10% really falling away.

这在美国许多其他考试中都有体现。

This shows up in many, many other exams that are being done in The US.

所以我认为你说得对，在这个数字风险暴露更多、干扰更多的时代，最底层的20%确实在和其他人拉开差距。

So I think that's exactly right, that what we seem to be seeing in this era of greater exposure to digital risks, for example, and disruptions, it's the bottom 20% who are really falling away from the rest.

这又会对经济产生影响。

Again, that has implications to the economy.

对政治也有影响。

It has implications to politics.

对整体社会参与也有影响。我真的认为，如果十分之一或五分之一的年轻人长大后，却没有掌握应对现代生活复杂性所需的技能，我们不会走向一个好的方向。

It has implications for participation in society overall that I really don't think we're headed to a good place if you end up with one in ten, one in five young people and they become adults And these people really just do not or have not been equipped with the skills they need to navigate the complexity of modern life.

我想花点时间专门谈谈人工智能的问题。

I'd love to just focus for a moment on the AI problem as well.

报告显示，每天使用人工智能的人得分比从不使用的人低28分，也就是说，如果你每天使用人工智能，你大约比不使用人工智能的同龄人落后一年半。

The report showed that daily AI users scored 28 points below those who never use AI, meaning that if you're using AI every day, you are about a year and a half behind your peers who are not using AI.

对我来说，这确实是对学校中人工智能的一种控诉。

To me, this is really an indictment of AI in schools.

这也在纽约市成为了一个激烈的政治话题。

This has also become kind of an intense political topic here in New York City.

祖兰·马姆达尼已经选择在学校禁止人工智能，大概就是出于这个原因。

Zuran Mamdani has opted to ban AI in schools presumably for this reason.

我们该如何看待人工智能及其对儿童学习的影响呢？

What are we to make of AI and its impacts on learning for children?

对。

Yeah.

我认为这方面的证据开始越来越多。

I think the evidence is starting to mount up on this one.

所以几周前，中国的高中和大学也有一项研究，显示那些用AI帮助完成作业和考试的学生，在学年开始时的作业和考试中看起来表现很好，但到了没有AI的期末考试时，他们表现得非常非常差。

So there was also a study a few weeks back out of the Chinese high schools and universities that showed that students who were using AI to help with their assessments and their homework, they looked like they were doing really well on the homework and these examinations started the course of the year, but when it came to the final exam where they didn't have AI, they performed really, really badly.

我们在各种场合都看到了这种情况。

We're seeing this in all sorts of settings.

美国大学也出现了类似的情况。

We've seen this come out from US universities as well.

所以我认为，目前有充分的证据表明，在学习过程中依赖AI是极其危险的，因为它本质上就像一根拐杖，一旦拿走，人们最终就会崩溃。

So I think at this point, there's a really solid case that relying on AI as part of the learning process is extremely risky in terms of it essentially being used as a crutch that when taken away, people just collapse at the end.

我认为，在教育环境中，如果没有明确禁止，执行AI使用的规定也是极其困难的。

I think it's also just incredibly hard to enforce use of AI in the education setting where that doesn't happen.

你可以谈论使用锁定版本的ChatGPT之类的，来鼓励学习时间。

You can talk about having locked down versions of ChatGPT, that kind of thing, that encourage study hours.

但归根结底，如果有人想作弊，他们总会找到办法。

But ultimately, if someone wants to cheat, they're gonna find a way to cheat.

这些年来，我们在各种形式的教育技术中也看到了这一点。

And we've seen this with all sorts of different forms of educational technology over the years as well.