中国AI成本低20倍——且正迎头赶上

成为邻居真正意味着什么？

What does it really mean to be a neighbor?

就是普通的普通人。

It's just everyday people.

你知道的。

You know?

就是一些退休的人。

It's just people who are retired.

他们下午有空闲时间，所以会去巡逻。

They have a couple hours in the afternoon, so they're gonna do patrols.

还有那些，你知道的，房地产经纪人，开车到处转，留意冰层的移动情况，并在不安全时提醒邻居。

And it's people who are, you know, real estate agents, you know, driving around, like, trying to track how ice is moving and alert neighbors when things are not safe.

危机时刻互助精神的兴起。

The rise of mutual aid in times of crisis.

这就是本周《为我解释》的内容。

That's this week on Explain It To Me.

新集数每周日上线，各大播客平台均可收听。

New episodes, Sundays, wherever you get your podcasts.

当政治风向转变时，那些曾向特朗普政府低头的人会受到问责吗？

When the political winds change, will there be accountability for those who bent the knee for the Trump administration?

如果这些企业认为，当民主党重新掌权时，会遵守旧规则，说‘算了，不追究了’。

If these corporations think that the Democrats, when they come back in power, are gonna play by the old rules and say, oh, never mind.

我们会原谅你们的。

We'll we'll forgive you.

我认为他们想错了。

I think they've got another thing coming.

我是普里特·巴拉拉。

I'm Preet Bharara.

本周，苏珊·赖斯大使将与我讨论领导力、决策以及美国法治的现状。

And this week, ambassador Susan Rice joins me to discuss leadership, decision making, and the state of the rule of law in America.

这一集现已上线。

The episode is out now.

在您收听播客的任何平台搜索并关注《与普里特同行》。

Search and follow Stay Tuned with Preet wherever you get your podcasts.

你通常不会在深夜电视节目中期待一场关于言论自由的严谨辩论，但这就是我们所处的世界。

You don't normally tune into a late night TV show expecting a rigorous debate about free speech, but somehow this is the world we live in.

本周在《The Verge Cast》中，我们讨论了联邦通信委员会委员布伦丹·卡尓如何将他的机构变成言论警察，以及为什么像斯蒂芬·科尔伯特和吉米·基梅尔这样的人不得不挺身而出反击。

This week on the verge cast, we're talking about how FCC commissioner Brendan Carr has turned his agency into the speech police and why it's falling to people like Stephen Colbert and Jimmy Kimmel to fight back.

此外，还有今年苹果及其他公司推出或未推出的科技产品，以及聊天机器人战争的最新动态，尽在《The Verge Cast》，在您收听播客的任何平台收听。

That plus the gadgets we are and maybe aren't getting from Apple and others this year and the latest in the chatbot wars on the vergecast wherever you get podcasts.

今天的数字是二百一十九。

Today's number, two hundred and nineteen.

这是成年人从朋友变成挚友平均所需的时间，以小时计。

That's how many hours it takes on average for adults to go from friends to best friends.

今天的另一个数字是一千。

Today's other number is one thousand.

这是我与斯科特·加洛韦相处的总时长。

That's how many hours I've spent with Scott Galloway.

然而，我仍然没有走出熟人阶段。

However, I still haven't made it out of the acquaintance service.

我来试试。

I'll give shot.

货币市场疯了。

Money market's mad.

如果钱是邪恶的，那么那栋大楼就是地狱。

If money is evil, then that building is hell.

节目继续进行。

The show goes on.

几乎没人看的节目售价。

The price of nearly watched the show sell.

欢迎来到Profty市场。

Welcome to Profty Markets.

我是埃德·埃尔森。

I'm Ed Elson.

今天是2月19日。

It is February 19.

我们来回顾一下昨天的市场关键数据。

Let's check-in on yesterday's market vitals.

在美联储会议纪要发布后，主要指数普遍上涨。

The major indices paired gains after the Federal Reserve minutes were released.

官方记录显示，与会者对通胀上升表示担忧。

The official record of their last meeting revealed rising concerns over inflation.

记录还表明，若通胀持续，多位官员可能支持加息。

It also showed several officials may want to raise rates if inflation persists.

这一消息推动了国债收益率上升。

That news sent treasury yields climbing.

与此同时，比特币跌至约66,000美元，好吧。

Meanwhile Bitcoin fell to roughly $66,000 Okay.

还有其他什么动态吗？

What else is happening?

最近，Anthropic 和 OpenAI 吸引了大部分头条新闻，但中国公司也在积极发布自己功能强大的人工智能模型。

Anthropic and OpenAI have grabbed most of the headlines recently, but Chinese companies have been busy releasing very powerful AI models of their own.

似乎从周二开始的农历新年，已经成为了中国的非正式产品发布季。

It seems that Lunar New Year, which began on Tuesday, has become China's unofficial launch season.

阿里巴巴率先推出了 RinBrain，这是一个旨在帮助机器人理解物理世界的模型。

Alibaba kicked things off with RinBrain, a model designed to help robots understand the physical world.

他们还发布了 QUEN 3.5，这是一个专注于编码和智能体的模型，速度比前代产品快达五倍。

They also unveiled QUEN 3.5, a coding and agent focused model that is up to five times faster than its predecessor.

与此同时，字节跳动推出了 Cdance 2.0，一个视频生成工具，以及 Dubow 2.0，其深度推理模型。

Meanwhile, ByteDance dropped Cdance two point o, a video generation tool, as well as Dubow two point o, its deep reasoning model.

随后，智谱AI发布了 GLM-5，该模型专为智能体智能设计。

And then Zepu released GLM five, which is engineered for agentic intelligence.

这些发布和所有这些模型背后的共同点是，据称它们在多个关键基准测试中已达到甚至超越了美国竞争对手的水平。

The through line behind all of these announcements, all of these models are reportedly matching and even beating US competitors on multiple key benchmarks.

好的。

Okay.

今天我们邀请到预言媒体的艾丽丝·韩，她也是《中国解码》播客的联合主持人，来为我们解读这一轮发布潮。

Here to break down this season of launches, we're speaking with Prophecy Media's very own Alice Han, cohost of the China Decode podcast.

艾丽丝，很高兴见到你。

Alice, good to see you.

嗨，埃德，新年快乐。

Hi, Ed, and happy New Year.

祝你马年吉祥。

Happy year of the fire horse.

马年吉祥。

Happy year of the fire horse.

这似乎正是这里故事的一部分：每逢农历新年，这些中国公司就会推出大量新模型，比如Cdance、DuBao、GLM5。

That seems to be part of the story here, which is right as the Lunar New Year shows up, we see tons of new models coming out from these Chinese companies, these new AI models, Cdance, DuBao, GLM5.

我的意思是，这些名字至少在中国的头条新闻中占据了主导地位。

I mean, a lot of these names are kind of dominating the headlines, at least in China.

你如何看待中国推出的这些新人工智能模型？

What do you make of these new AI models that have come out of China?

它们有多重要？

How important are they?

这对消费者和投资者意味着什么？

Do they mean for consumers and investors?

当然，埃德，中国人工智能确实像脱缰的野马一样迅猛发展，借用一个马的比喻。

Well, Ed, it's definitely true that Chinese AI has bolted from the stables to borrow a horse metaphor.

正如你所说，我们已经有了几个新模型，

And as you rightly say, we've got a couple of models that have

刚刚推出的，是Jepore的GLM。

just come out, Jepore's GLM.

我们还推出了新的Quen五代Max模型。

We've also got Quen, the new Quen five max model that's come out.

我们还看到了新的AI视频生成模型，这给好莱坞带来了巨大的惊喜、震惊和不安。

We've also got new AI video generation models that have taken Hollywood, I think, by huge surprise and shock and consternation.

但总的来说，当我审视这些模型时，

But, generally, when I look at the models,

在过去几天里，我一直使用它们，对我来说很明显的是，它们已经提升了。

and I've I've been using them in the last few days, what's clear to me is that they have improved.

它们更快了。

They are faster.

如果你将它们与OpenAI和Claude等提供的专有闭源模型进行比较，它们显然更具成本效益。

They are more cost effective if you obviously compare them to the closed proprietor models offered by OpenAI as well as, by Claude, for instance.

但说实话，我对这场辩论的挫败感在于，这是在拿苹果和橘子做比较。

But, really, the my frustration with this debate is that it's apples to oranges.

人们会以不同的方式使用中国模型。

People are gonna use the Chinese models differently.

我认为，Airbnb首席执行官布莱恩·切斯基几个月前明确表示，许多工程师正在使用这些模型来构建智能代理聊天机器人，因为它们更便宜、更快，这似乎表明中国模型的使用场景与美国的闭源模型非常不同。

I think the fact that Brian Chesky, the Airbnb CEO, says outright a couple months ago that a lot of these engineers are using this, for agentic, chatbots, because it's cheaper and faster seems to suggest that the use cases for this are very different, the Chinese models that is, than the American closed models.

首先，许多工程师和普通民众都在使用并尝试中国模型，比如Qwen。

Firstly, a lot of engineers and just everyday people are using and experimenting with the Chinese models, Quinn, for instance.

他们将模型下载到本地，进行微调，并用于自己的特定场景。

They're downloading them locally, fine tuning them, and using them for their particular use cases.

他们可能参与的任何项目。

Any kind of projects that they may be involved in.

由于是本地下载，隐私性也得到了提升。

It's it's got improved privacy because they're downloading it locally.

通常比OpenAI和Claude提供的服务便宜10到20倍。

It's cheaper, often 10 to 20 times cheaper than what's offered by OpenAI and Claude.

所以，实际上，他们对这些模型的使用方式与你和我，埃德，可能完全不同。

So, really, they're using this very differently from, say, potentially you and me, Ed.

我会大量使用Claude的企业版，因为当涉及到我所从事的地缘政治分析和金融分析时，它的推理能力异常出色。

I'd use Claude a lot, the enterprise level, because the reasoning is exceptionally good when it comes to the geopolitical analysis, the financial analysis that I'm involved in.

因此，我认为美国的模型真正专注于精确性与最高水平的推理，这是一场追求通用人工智能的探索。

So the way that I think about it is that the American models are really focusing on precision, on reasoning at the highest level as a as a really quest for AGI.

中国的模型则真正致力于打造一个市场，让普通民众、工程师甚至企业都能本地下载、实验和微调，从而享受更便宜、更快的模型带来的好处。

The Chinese models are really figuring out how to create a market in which everyday people, engineers, corporates even, are downloading them locally, experimenting, fine tuning, and just capturing the benefits of cheaper, faster models.

所以，我认为不存在直接的可比性。

So I don't think there's a direct comparison.

我认为这两种模型的市场是能够共存的。

I think that the market exists for both these models, so to speak, to coexist.

我们还看到的一件事是基准测试。

One of the things that we're also seeing is just the benchmarking.

我的意思是，我不确定该多认真对待这些基准测试排行榜。

I mean, can't tell how seriously I'm supposed to take these benchmarking leaderboards.

似乎情况总是在不断变化。

It seems that things are constantly shifting.

但当你查看排行榜，查看关于哪个模型最好、性能最强、速度最快的数据时，无论你如何定义‘最好’。

But when you look at the leaderboards, when you look at the stats on which is the best model, which is the best performing, the fastest, what however you define the best.

我不确定他们是如何定义的。

I'm not sure how they define it.

中国模型往往表现最佳，或者至少在排名中位居前列。

The Chinese models tend to be the best or at least they they tend to be at the top of the rankings.

你怎么看这一点？

What do you make of that?

这意味着中国模型更好吗？

Does that mean that the Chinese models are better?

这意味着它们会超越Mhmm吗？

Does that mean they're going to overtake Mhmm.

美国的模型？

The American models?

或者，这会不会是苹果和橘子的比较，这些基准测试可能根本没意义？

Or, again, is this perhaps maybe apples to oranges and these these benchmarks maybe don't make sense?

我很高兴你问了这个问题，埃德。

Well, I love that you asked that question, Ed.

我认为，这些基准测试常常是误导性的。

I I think often that the benchmarks can be red herrings.

计算机科学中有一个很好的强化原则，应用于这种情况，即即使它们达到了这些基准目标并超越了其他模型，但在某些方面，它们在某些不可量化的目标和性能表现上，可能仍不如Claude和OpenAI的产品。

There's a good hardening principle, in computer science that is applied to this, which, suggests that even although they may meet those benchmark goals and exceed the other models, there are certain unquantifiable goals and performance outcomes that they may still be inferior in certain respects to the Claude's and the OpenAI's of the world.

所以，再次回到我之前的观点，我认为，如果你重视隐私、成本和速度，也许你可以选择Quinn、Jipur或Kimmy。

So, again, back to my previous point, I really think that if you care about privacy and and cheapness and speed, maybe you go for Quinn, you go for Jipur, you go for Kimmy.

但如果你关心的是前沿、尖端的推理精度，那么你仍然会倾向于选择Claude和OpenAI的产品。

But if you care about, you know, frontier cutting edge reasoning precision, then you are still going to favor the Claude's and the OpenAI's.

所以，它们实际上生活在完全不同的宇宙中，我认为即使这些模型有动力宣称自己超越了其他竞争对手的基准，基准也常常具有误导性。

So it's really different universes that they inhabit, and I think benchmarks can often be red herrings even although there's incentive for these models to come out and say that we're exceeding the benchmarks of other rivals and competitors.

但再说一次，成本是可以直接比较的。

But, again, you know, the cost is something that is directly comparable.

中国模型便宜十倍、二十倍，这并不令人意外。

It's no surprise that the Chinese models are ten, twenty times cheaper.

我认为，随着成本持续下降，惯性将继续有利于中国模型。

And I think that that with cost deflation, inertia will continue to favor the Chinese.

成本什么时候才会真正发生变化，从而改变这里的市场格局？

At what point will the will the cost really change and shift the way the market works here?

我的意思是，是的。

I mean Mhmm.

我认为，消费者都知道OpenAI。

Consumers, I think, they know about OpenAI.

他们开始了解Anthropic和Claude。

They're beginning to know about Anthropic and learning about Claude.

所以那里可能有一些品牌忠诚度。

So there's some maybe some brand loyalty there.

但我感觉，到了某个时候，如果你面对一个便宜十倍或二十倍的选择，你会选择那个。

But I feel like at a certain point, if you're presented with an option that is 10 or 20 times cheaper, you go with that option.

所以，我有点困惑的是，这种情况什么时候会发生？

So I guess my what I'm a little confused about is when is that going to happen?

这种情况不会发生吗？

Is that not going to happen?

这对OpenAI、Anthropic甚至谷歌的Gemini来说，难道不是一个巨大的担忧吗？

Is that not a giant concern for a company like OpenAI or Anthropic or even Google with Gemini?

是的。

Yes.

对。

Yeah.

但我认为，当我们审视技术扩散和价值创造时，软件经济真正从美国兴起并由美国主导，软件创造的价值，我认为真正受益于企业价值链部分的将是Claude和OpenAI这样的公司。

But I do think when we look at technology diffusion and value creation, the way that the software economy really came out of The US and US dominated that and the value created by software, it's really, I think, gonna be the Claude's and the OpenAI's that benefit from the enterprise part of the value chain.

嗯。

Mhmm.

企业愿意为此付费，而且它们在订阅模式上通常更具黏性。

The enterprise can pay for it, and, you know, they tend to be stickier in terms of the subscription.

因此，我认为我们将进入一个世界，在这个世界里，大部分价值可能被Anthropic和OpenAI捕获，但这并不意味着阿里巴巴、字节跳动、Kimi等公司就没有任何机会。

So I think that we'll end up in a world in which maybe the majority of the value is captured by Anthropic, by OpenAI, but that doesn't mean that there won't be anything left on the table for Alibaba, for ByteDance, for Kimi.

只是它们所处的市场不同，我们甚至还没有讨论其他一些应用场景。

It's just a different market that they're inhabiting, and we haven't even talked about some of the other use cases.

现在中国已经有了AI聊天机器人玩具。

There's now Chinese AI chatbot toys.

我认为这将是一个巨大的市场。

That is gonna be a big market, I think.

而且，这无疑与中国强大的制造和硬件能力完美契合。

And, certainly, it marries well with China's manufacturing and hardware capabilities.

你刚才说玩具？

You said toys?

它们就是玩具。

So they're toys.

是的。

Yeah.

这些玩具能够直接与孩子对话、教导他们并与他们互动，我不知道你有没有读过尼尔·斯蒂芬森的《钻石年龄》，书里描述了一种作为故事情节一部分的AI启蒙工具。

They're these toys that are being sold that can speak directly to children and teach them and and interact with them in I don't know if you've ever read Neal Stephenson's Diamond Age, but it's this kind of AI primer that is part of the story.

从科幻的角度来看，我们其实已经生活在那个‘钻石时代’了。

We're already living in that diamond age, so to speak, in the sci fi realm.

这是一方面。

That is one area.

另一个OpenAI和Anthropic不太占优势的领域是多语言支持。

And then another area in which the the, I would say, OpenAI and Anthropic have not been as competitive is in multilanguage.

如果你看看中国推出的模型，这很合理，因为它们大量使用了包含英语、中文及其他语言的多语言数据集进行训练。

If you look at the models coming out of China, it makes sense because they've been trained a lot on on multilanguage English, Chinese, and other language datasets.

它们在其他语言上往往表现更好。

They tend to be better at at other languages.

因此，如果你是一家全球公司，关注中文或亚洲市场，这一点也可能非常重要。

And so if you're a a global company where you care about a Chinese Asian speaking market, that could also be quite an important distinction.

我们还没提到的一个名字是DeepSeek，它大约一年前非常流行，但今天似乎没那么热门了。

One name we haven't mentioned, which was very popular about a year ago, seems to be less popular today, DeepSeek.

嗯。

Mhmm.

DeepSeek在这一切中处于什么位置？

Where does DeepSeek sit in all of this?

我认为DeepSeek仍然是领导者。

Well, I I think DeepSeek is still a leader.

他们仍然拥有大量顶尖的AI人才，这在考虑国内和全球的AI竞争时非常重要。

They still have a lot of the high level AI talent, and that counts a lot when you think about the AI competition domestically and globally.

我确实在事实上知道，虽然我不确定是否该说，DeepSeek正在与中国各地的政府机构密切合作，将人工智能融入地方公共治理中。

I do know for a fact, although I'm not sure if I should say this, that DeepSeek is working a lot with local governments, with government bodies in China to integrate AI into local public governance.

我认为这正好赶上了这样一个时机：埃德接下来的两三周会屏息以待，因为第十五个五年计划即将出台，现在很明显，‘AI+’将成为未来五年政策的核心支柱。

And I think this is coming at a time where, you know, Ed will be watching with bated breath in the next two weeks or so because the fifteenth five year plan is gonna come out, and it's very, very clear now that AI plus is gonna be a huge cornerstone of the policy for the next five years.

所以人工智能将渗透到各个领域，包括公共治理、公共服务和公用事业。

So AI in every realm, including in public governance and and public service and utilities.

因此，DeepSeek仍然是一个重要玩家，但我认为阿里巴巴最新推出的模型，甚至Kimi，都表明在中国至少AI竞争已经变得异常激烈。

So DeepSeek is still a player, but I think the latest models coming out of Alibaba, even Kimi, show us that in China, at least, the AI race is hypercompetitive.

这不再是简单的双寡头格局，甚至也不是围绕三个主要玩家的竞争——这似乎正变得越来越明显；美国则有众多参与者，我认为他们能够占据市场的不同部分。

It's not just a duopoly, which it's or or even centered around three players, which is increasingly what's happening, it seems, The US is many different players, and I think they can capture different parts of the market.

好的。

Alright.

爱丽丝·汉，‘中国解码’播客的联合主持人。

Alice Hahn, cohost of the China Decode podcast.

爱丽丝，谢谢。

Alice, thank you.

感谢你抽出时间。

Appreciate your time.

非常感谢，埃德。

Thanks so much, Ed.

广告后，欧元或将挑战美元。

After the break, the euro may take on the dollar.

如需获取更多市场洞察，欢迎订阅我的每周通讯《Simply Put》，地址为 edwardelson.substack.com。

And for even more markets insights, you can subscribe to my weekly newsletter, simply put, at edward elson dot substack dot com.

本期节目由Framer赞助。

Support for today's show comes from Framer.

假设你的市场团队想要一个新着陆页，设计团队完成原型后，工程部门——本就任务繁重——回应说：好，我们会处理的。

Let's say your marketing team wants a new landing page, so the design team mocks it up and then your engineering department who's already got too much on their plate responds with, yeah, we'll get to it.

从初创公司到《财富》五百强企业，成千上万的企业正选择使用Framer构建网站，因为在这里，修改只需几分钟，而非数天，完美解决了这一问题。

Thousands of businesses from early stage startups to Fortune five hundreds are choosing to build their sites in Framer where changes take minutes instead of days to solve this very problem.

Framer是一款企业级无代码网站构建工具，已被Perplexity、Miro等公司的团队采用，以加速工作流程。

Framer's enterprise grade no code website builder used by teams at companies including Perplexity and Miro to move faster.

通过实时协作、功能完备的CMS（包含所有SEO所需功能）以及包含集成A/B测试的高级分析，你的设计师和市场人员从第一天起就能自主构建并优化你的网站。

With real time collaboration, a robust CMS with everything you need for great SEO, and advanced analytics that include integrated AB testing, your designers and marketers are empowered to build and maximize your .com from day one.

无论你是想推出新网站、测试几个着陆页，还是迁移整个.com网站，Framer都为初创企业、成长型企业和大型企业提供相应方案，让从想法到上线的过程尽可能简单快捷。

So whether you wanna launch a new site, test a few landing pages, or migrate your full .com, Framer has programs for startups, scale ups, and large enterprises to make going from idea to live site as easy and as fast as possible.

了解如何通过Framer专家让您的.com网站发挥更大价值，或立即免费开始构建，访问 framer.com/markets，享受Framer Pro年计划30%的折扣。

Learn how you can get more out of your .com from a Framer specialist or get started building for free today at framer.com/markets for 30% off of Framer Pro annual plan.

访问 framer.com/markets，享受30%折扣。

That's framer.com/markets for 30% off.

framer.com/markets。

Framer.com/markets.

适用规则和限制条件可能适用。

Rules and restrictions may apply.

本节目由先锋集团赞助。

Support for the show comes from Vanguard.

财务顾问的职责是尽一切努力为您的客户成功奠定基础。

The role of financial adviser is to do everything you can to set your clients up for success.

实现这一目标的方式有很多。

There are plenty of ways you can go about it.

也许是对你的固定收益策略进行升级，但债券可能比较复杂。

Maybe a leveling up of your fixed income strategy, but bonds can be tricky.

市场庞大，利率波动，风险就藏在明处。

The market is huge, rates shift, and risks hide in plain sight.

因此，拥有一个规模庞大且专业可靠的合作伙伴至关重要。

That's why having a partner with scale and expertise matters.

先锋集团两者兼具。

Vanguard brings both.

先锋的债券具有机构级品质。

Vanguard bonds are institutional quality.

机构级品质不是一句口号，而是对客户的承诺。

Institutional quality isn't a tagline, it's a commitment to your clients.

这意味着全线产品都达到顶级标准。

It means top grade products across the board.

产品线包括超过80只债券基金，均由一支由200名全球行业专家、分析师和交易员组成的团队主动管理。

The lineup includes over 80 bond funds that are actively managed by a 200 person global squad of sector specialists, analysts, and traders.

许多公司喜欢突出他们的明星投资经理，仿佛所有奇迹都依赖于这一个天才的头脑。

A lot of firms love to highlight their star portfolio managers like it's all about that one brilliant mind making the magic happen.

但先锋的理念略有不同。

Vanguard's philosophy is a little different.

他们认为最好的主动投资策略不应被局限于某一个人手中。

They believe the best active strategies shouldn't be locked away with one person.

而应在整个团队中共享。

They should be shared across the team.

因此，如果您希望为客户提供年复一年的稳定回报，请亲自前往 vanguard.com/audio 查看业绩记录。

So if you're looking to give your clients consistent results year in and year out, go to see the record for yourself at vanguard.com/audio.

那就是 vanguard.com/audio。

That's vanguard.com/audio.

所有投资都存在风险。

All investing is subject to risk.

先锋营销公司，分销商。

Vanguard Marketing Corporation distributor.

本节目由Public提供支持，Public是为认真对待投资的人打造的投资平台。

Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously on Public.

你可以构建一个包含股票、债券和期权的多资产投资组合，现在还可以投资生成式资产，通过AI将任何想法转化为可投资的指数。

You can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, and options, and now generated assets, which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI.

这一切都从你的提示开始，比如现金流充裕的可再生能源公司，或年收入增长率超过20%的半导体供应商。

It all starts with your prompt from renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% a year over year.

你可以直接输入任何提示，让AI为你工作。

You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work.

它会筛选成千上万只股票，构建一个独一无二的指数，并让你将其与标普500指数进行回测，然后只需点击几下即可投资。

It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index, and lets you back test it against the S and P 500, then you can invest in a few clicks.

生成式资产就像拥有无限可能的ETF，完全可定制，基于你的观点，而非他人的观点。

Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's.

前往 public.com/probg，转账投资组合即可获得无上限的1%奖励。

Go to public.com/probg and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio.

网址是 public.com/probg。

That's public.com/probg.

由Public Investing提供资金，经纪服务由Open to the Public Investing Inc提供，该公司为FINRA和SIPC会员；咨询服务由Public Advisors LLC提供，该公司为美国证券交易委员会注册顾问。

Paid for by Public Investing, brokerage services by Open to the Public Investing Inc, member FINRA and SIPC advisory services by Public Advisors LLC, SEC registered adviser.

生成资产是交互式分析工具的输出结果。

Generated assets is an interactive analysis tool output.

仅供信息参考，不构成任何投资建议或推荐。

It's for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice.

完整披露内容请参见public.com/disclosures。

Complete disclosure is available at public.com/disclosures.

我们继续回到Prof2Markets的节目。

We're back with Prof2Markets.

特朗普总统混乱的贸易政策使欧洲动荡不安，一些国家正在考虑采取新措施予以回应。

President Trump's chaotic trade policy has rattled Europe, and some countries are weighing new methods to push back.

对瑞典而言，这意味着重新考虑其使用克朗作为本国货币，并转向使用欧元。

For Sweden, that means reconsidering its use of the krona as its currency and switching to the euro.

该国财政部长刚刚支持一项关于采用欧元的正式调查，此举将加强瑞典与欧盟的贸易联系。

The country's finance minister just backed a formal inquiry into euro adoption, which would strengthen the country's trade ties to the EU.

全面采用欧盟的共同货币，也将是对欧元的信心投票，恰逢美元的主导地位受到质疑。

A full embrace of the EU's common currency would also be a vote of confidence in the euro just as the dollar's dominance has fallen into question.

在过去一年中，欧元上涨了13%。

In the past year, the euro has climbed 13%.

与此同时，美元下跌了9%。

Meanwhile, the dollar has declined 9%.

因此，为了更深入了解瑞典这一货币计划的意义，我们邀请了布鲁金斯学会高级研究员、前高盛首席外汇策略师罗宾·布鲁克斯。

So for more on what this currency plan in Sweden means, we are speaking with Robin Brooks, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and also former chief FX strategist at Goldman Sachs.

罗宾，感谢您做客《房地产市场》。

Robin, thank you for joining us in Property Markets.

是的。

Yeah.

我的荣幸。

My pleasure.

谢谢邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

所以，这一决定尚未做出，但至少瑞典似乎正在考虑放弃使用多年的克朗，转而采用欧元。

So this decision or we haven't reached a decision, but at least Sweden appears to be mulling over the prospect of ditching the krona, which they've had for years, and moving over to the euro.

这似乎与美国和欧洲之间的关系，或至少与全球不确定性有关。

It appears that this kind of has to do with the relationship between The US and Europe or at least global uncertainty.

这似乎在一定程度上是对这一情况的回应。

This seems to be somewhat a response to that.

请解释一下为什么会发生这种情况。

Take us through why this is happening.

为什么瑞典正在考虑这一举措？

Why is Sweden considering this?

正如你所知，上世纪九十年代，一些欧洲国家聚在一起，决定建立一种共同货币。

So as you know, a bunch of European countries got together back in the nineties, and they decided to form a common currency.

欧元于1999年正式诞生。

The euro was formed and began in 1999.

当时有一批国家没有加入欧元区，比如英国——我猜你对那里有些了解——还有瑞典、丹麦、波兰、捷克共和国和匈牙利。

There were a bunch of countries that did not join the euro when it was created, The UK, where I'm guessing you have a little bit of a connection, And then Sweden, obviously, Denmark, Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary.

首先，不加入欧元区并不算什么异常情况。

So it's not, first of all, any kind of outlier status to not be in the euro.

当时，各国就是否加入欧元区举行了全民公投。

Countries at the time had referenda on whether joining the euro was a good idea.

瑞典在2003年举行了一次公投，结果有56%的选民反对加入欧元区。

Sweden did one in 2003, and it was rejected by a margin of 56% of the vote was against joining the euro.

如今，民意调查的支持率已转向倾向于加入欧元区。

The margin in terms of popular opinion polls now has moved in the direction of joining the euro.

你对此的判断完全正确。

You're totally right about that.

这主要与地缘政治有关。

That's mostly about geopolitics.

尤其是俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，让世界变得更不安全。

So a fear that, in particular, Russia's invasion of Ukraine just makes the world less safe.

美国作为盟友的可预测性降低了。

The US is less of a predictable ally.

因此，一定有一些瑞典人认为加入欧元区能带来额外的安全感。

And so it must be that some Swedes think joining the euro gives you that extra safety.

我认为，如果真是这样，那这种想法是缺乏理性的，因为欧元本质上只是一个货币挂钩体系。

I think that's if that is what's going on, then I think that's poor reasoning because the euro is really just a system of currency pegs.

它并不会带来任何安全保障。

It doesn't confer any kind of safety.

你只需要问问波罗的海国家，比如爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛，它们因为是欧元区成员就感觉对俄罗斯入侵更有安全感了吗？

You just have to ask the Baltic states, for example, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, do they feel any safer from Russian invasion because they're members of the euro?

没有。

No.

波兰的财政部长刚刚表示，我们认为欧元是个好主意，但我们更愿意保持在外而非加入。

Poland, the finance minister, just said, you know, we think the euro is a great idea, but we prefer to be on the outside than on the inside.

所以我认为，从地缘政治角度来看，这是否是一个明智的决定，目前还完全不确定。

So I think whether or not from a geopolitical point of view, this is a smart decision, I think it's totally up in the air.

听起来，放弃克朗、采用欧元更多是一种象征性姿态，表明我们与欧洲站在一起，而这种做法实际上对瑞典的影响可能微乎其微，甚至可能并不有利。

It sounds like dumping the corona, taking the euro would mostly be a symbolic gesture to say we stand with Europe, and and that it wouldn't really have much impact or whatever impact it would have would maybe not even be good for Sweden.

整个对话中是否涉及去美元化或货币贬值的成分？

Is there an element of de dollarization or debasement in this whole conversation.

我的意思是，我们最近一直在探讨的一个重要主题是，越来越多的人对美元感到担忧。

I mean, one of the big themes we've been exploring recently is the fact that increasingly people are wary of the dollar.

他们担心美国的债务水平。

They're concerned about debt levels in The US.

他们正在转向黄金等资产。

They're turning to things like gold.

而我只是在想，作为下一个最受欢迎的货币，欧元是否值得被用作交易货币？

And I I just wonder if the euro as the next most popular currency, if there's an argument to be made that we should be transacting in euros.

也许瑞典人认为，这就是他们转向欧元的原因。

Maybe people in Sweden think that that's the reason why you switch over to the euro.

在这场对话中，是否涉及挑战美元的问题，还是这也只是个误导？

Is taking on the dollar a part of this conversation at all, or is that also a red herring?

首先，我认为你问的正是最关键的问题。

First of all, I think you're asking exactly the right question.

有一项针对央行储备经理的调查。

There's a survey of, central bank reserve managers.

这些人都管理着亚洲所有的主权财富基金和积累了大量美元及其他外汇储备的各国央行。

So these are you know, picture all the sovereign wealth funds in Asia, all the central banks that have piled up tons of dollars and other foreign exchange reserves.

他们管理着数万亿美元的资金。

These guys manage trillions of dollars.

这项调查由国际货币基金组织进行。

And this survey is done by the IMF.

调查每季度进行一次，询问你的储备资产中美元、欧元、瑞士法郎、瑞典克朗等的配置比例是多少。

It's once a quarter, and it surveys what is your allocation of your reserves to dollars versus euros versus Swiss franc versus Swedish krona, etcetera.

令人惊讶的是，尽管去年有那么多噪音——回想一下解放日，2025年4月美元的大幅下跌，以及随后特朗普总统与美联储的激烈冲突，特别是10月之后黄金价格的大幅上涨——外国储备管理者对美元的配置比例却保持了完全稳定。

And the amazing thing is that with all the noise last year, you know, just think back to Liberation Day, the big drop in the dollar in April 2025, and then, you know, as we went through the year, the altercations that President Trump had with the Fed, the massive rise in gold prices that we saw after October in particular, the allocations that foreign reserve managers are making to the dollar have been totally stable.

并没有出现逃离美元的现象。

There has been no flight from the dollar.

也没有出现转向欧元的现象。

There's also been no flight into the euro.

考虑到我们经历的种种动荡，这确实非常惊人。

That's pretty remarkable when you think about all the noise that we've had.

因此，我认为从中得出的教训是，美元要失去储备货币地位，或者出现严重的美元贬值，门槛相当高。

So I think the lesson that I draw from that is the hurdle for the dollar to lose reserve currency status for there to be serious dollar debasement, it's pretty high.

但对瑞典来说，这确实是一个巨大的机遇。

But again, for Sweden, this is a really big opportunity.

是的。

Yeah.

瑞典传统上一直被视为一种高贝塔货币。

Sweden traditionally has always been considered kind of a high beta currency.

它极其波动。

It's super volatile.

你并不真正愿意持有它，因为它总是随着新闻消息剧烈波动。

You you didn't really wanna hold it because it banged around all over the place on news.

最近，在过去六到九个月里，瑞典克朗开始像瑞士法郎一样交易，成为一种避险货币。

Most recently, so over the course of the last six, nine months, the Swedish krona has started trading like the Swiss francs, so like a safe haven currency.

所以当全球不确定性上升时，例如解放日关税，瑞典克朗实际上表现良好。

So when global uncertainty goes up, for example, Liberation Day tariffs, Swedish krona actually does well.

因此，我会把瑞典克朗归入与黄金、白银、铂金同类的类别，你懂的。

So I would put the Swedish krona in the same bucket as gold, silver, platinum, you name it.

它是一种安全资产。

It is this safe asset.

关于美元贬值究竟发生了什么，我认为是另一个问题。

What exactly is going on with dollar debasement, I think, is a separate question.

顺便说一下，今天美元走强是因为FOMC会议纪要提到了加息，这令市场感到意外。

Incidentally, the dollar is up today because the FOMC minutes talked about hikes, and that surprised the market.

所以我认为显然出现了避险情绪。

So I think there's clearly a flight to safety.

但人们究竟在逃离什么，目前还不太清楚。

What exactly people are fleeing from isn't quite clear yet.

是的。

Yeah.

这很有趣，因为外汇货币这类话题通常属于投资者、华尔街、智库、经济学家等人的讨论范畴。

It's interesting because, I mean, foreign exchange currencies, these are the conversations that are typically in the purview of investors, Wall Street, think tanks, economists, etcetera.

但去美元化问题引发了大量热议，很多人都对此感兴趣。

But the de dollarization question has generated a lot of heat and a lot of people are interested in it.

我认为这是因为，它传达了一种可能性，即我们多年来所熟知并生活的、以美国为主导力量的世界秩序，

And I think because it it it it communicates a possibility that this world order that we've all known and and lived with for so many years that where, you know, The US is the dominant power.

存在着美国的霸权地位。

There is an a hegemony of America.

这反映在该货币的强势上，可能意味着这种情况即将结束。

It's reflected in the strength of this currency that that may be coming to an end.

我想补充一点，很多投资者正在基于这种宏观可能性进行交易，这就是我们看到黄金出现当前走势的原因。

And I would add, you know, a lot of investors are making trades off of this macro possibility, which is why we're seeing what we're seeing with gold.

但听起来，作为一名真正的货币专家，作为高盛的首席外汇策略师，你的观点似乎是，如果我们实际审视美元的全球储备情况，这可能有点反应过度了，实际上这更像是雷声大雨点小。

But it sounds like you as a as a real currency expert, as the chief FX strategy foremost chief FX strategist, at at Goldman, It sounds like your view is that maybe this is a little bit overdone, if you're actually looking at the the global reserves of the dollar that actually this isn't this is more kind of bulk than bite.

嗯，我们知道在美国，财政政策某种程度上已经失控了。

Well, we know that in The United States, fiscal policy is kind of out of control.

是的

Yep.

债务正朝着非常糟糕的方向发展。

Debt is on a trajectory that is not good at all.

赤字已经失控。

Deficits are out of control.

但事实上，许多其他国家也是如此。

The thing is that's true for many other countries too.

对的

Yeah.

每个国家在财政上都面临困境。

Everyone is in trouble on fiscal.

因此，从相对角度来看，美国确实令人担忧，但相比之下，情况也没那么糟。

And so in a relative sense, The United States is worrying, but relatively speaking, it doesn't look that bad.

所以当你观察债券市场中美国国债与其他国家可比政府债券的风险溢价时，实际上美国的表现相当出色。

So when you look at, for example, risk premium in the bond market on treasuries over other comparably measured government bonds in other countries, Actually, The United States smells like roses.

这听起来太疯狂了。

That sounds crazy.

所以我认为我们现在的情况确实存在一种货币贬值交易。

So I think where we are is that there's a debasement trade, for sure.

但还不清楚这种贬值交易是针对美元，还是针对所有法定货币整体。

It's just not clear whether that debasement trade is against the dollar or against all fiat currencies together.

是的。

Yeah.

我总是回到的问题是，当然。

I think the question I always return to is, sure.

也许情况很糟糕。

Maybe it's bad.

你的替代方案是什么？

What's your alternative?

没错。

Exactly.

是欧元吗？

Is it the euro?

是人民币吗？

Is it the yuan?

是比特币吗？它作为一种货币形式也相当糟糕？

Is it bitcoin, which is also kind of bad as a form of currency?

是黄金吗？

Is it actually gold?

这些都是非常有趣的问题。

These are all very interesting questions.

我们时间到了，但感谢您的参与。

We are out of time, but, thank you for joining us.

罗宾·布鲁克斯，布鲁金斯学会高级研究员。

Robin Brooks, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

谢谢。

Thank you.

昨天，我们讨论了AI公司Anthropic与五角大楼，更具体地说是国防部长皮特·海格塞斯之间正在升级的冲突。

So yesterday, we discussed this feud that is unfolding between the AI company Anthropic and the Pentagon, or more specifically, the secretary of war, Pete Hegseth.

在结束之前，我想稍微剖析一下这个故事，因为它能让我们清楚地看到，我们当前正处于AI发展的哪个阶段。

And before we end here, I'd like to unpack that story a little bit because I think it tells you a lot about where we are in this AI moment.

为了帮助大家回忆一下，Anthropic最大的客户之一是国防部，该部门正支付数亿美元使用他们的AI工具。

So just to refresh your memory, one of Anthropic's biggest customers is the defense department, which is paying hundreds of millions of dollars to use their AI tools.

但本周，海格塞斯部长已威胁要切断与Anthropic的合作关系。

But as of this week, secretary Hegseth has threatened to cut ties with Anthropic.

他甚至将Anthropic列入了供应链风险名单，而这个标签通常只用于外国对手。

He has even gone so far as to put them on the supply chain risk list, which is a label that is usually reserved for foreign adversaries.

他们还威胁要切断与任何与Anthropic有业务往来的公司的合作。

They're also threatening to cut ties with any company that does any business with Anthropic at all.

总而言之，Anthropic现在已经被政府列入了黑名单。

In sum, Anthropic is now on the administration's shit list.

他们不喜欢Anthropic。

They do not like them.

问题是，为什么？

Question is, why?

这主要围绕着两个主要分歧。

Well, it all centers around two main disagreements.

第一，Anthropic 已经告诉五角大楼，他们不希望自己的技术被用于自主致命武器，也就是能杀人的人形机器人。

Number one, Anthropic has told the Pentagon that they do not want their technology to be used for autonomous lethal weapons, I e, robots that kill people.

第二，他们也不希望自己的技术被用于国内大规模监控，也就是监视美国公民。

And then number two, they also don't want their technology to be used for domestic mass surveillance, I e, spying on American citizens.

根据国防部的说法，这是不可接受的条件。

And according to the defense department, this is a deal breaker.

事实上，这个条件如此不可接受，以至于他们现在将 Anthropic 视为对美国的潜在威胁。

In fact, such a deal breaker that they now view anthropic as a potential risk to America.

因此，这件事有很多令人担忧的地方。

So there's a lot that is concerning about this.

我们如今要求 AI 用于无人机打击，同时也要求 AI 用于监视和监控美国公民。

The fact that we're now requiring that AI be used for things like drone strikes, also that we're requiring that AI be used to spy on Americans and surveil them.

这些事实本身就已经令人恐惧。

These facts are scary in and of themselves.

但或许更引人注目的是这里的虚伪。

But what is perhaps more striking is the hypocrisy here.

这竟出自一个长期宣称我们需要避免此类行为的政府——即政府监控和科技巨头监控的威胁。

The fact that this is coming from an administration that has long stated that this is exactly the kind of thing we need to avoid, the threat of government surveillance, of big tech surveillance.

特朗普本人曾表示，竞选的目标之一是‘监控我们的情报机构，确保它们不会监视我国公民’。

Trump himself said that one of the goals of the campaign was to, quote, monitor our intelligence agencies to ensure they are not spying on our citizens.

吉姆·乔丹曾警告称存在‘科技巨头与政府勾结’的风险。

Jim Jordan warned of the, quote, collusion of big tech and big government.

J。

J.

D。

D.

万斯，副总统，曾警告称企业可能会‘利用人工智能监视美国公民’。

Vance, the vice president, cautioned about companies, quote, using artificial intelligence to surveil Americans.

他说，我担心隐私被侵犯。

He said, I worry about invasions of privacy.

所以这正是MAGA本应阻止的事情——政府或深层政府与科技公司合作监控美国民众。

So this is exactly the thing that MAGA was supposed to prevent, this collaboration between the government or the deep state and also with technology companies to surveil the American people.

而现在，我们却陷入了一个极其讽刺的境地：一家人工智能公司实际上并不想朝这个方向发展。

And now we find ourselves in this very ironic position where an AI company actually doesn't want to move in that direction.

他们不想监控公民。

They don't want to surveil citizens.

他们愿意与政府合作，但不愿 spying on Americans。

They're down to work with the government, but they're not down to spy on Americans.

为此，他们正受到惩罚。

And for that, they are being punished.

现在我们可以深入探讨这里的虚伪之处。

Now we can dwell on the hypocrisy here.

这确实引人注目，但或许这也忽略了重点。

It is quite striking, but that might also be missing the point.