Anthropic是否终结了软件时代？

而你现在可以考虑的另一件事就是直接购买名为IGV的软件行业ETF。

And then the other thing that you could consider right now is just like buying the ETF, which is called IGV, just the whole software ETF.

但我的看法是，这里可能会有一些失败者。

But my view is, you know, it's possible that there are gonna be some losers here.

所以我认为最好深入进去，挑选一些赢家。

I So think it's better to go in and start picking some winners.

但这就是我选择的方向。

But that's what I've gone for.

我本来也会选择微软，但大多数人已经拥有大量的微软持仓了。

I also would have gone for Microsoft as well, but most people have just huge amounts of Microsoft exposure already.

但微软的股价也受到了重创。

But that's gotten pummeled as well.

而且，再次强调，这其实说不通，因为微软已经持有OpenAI的很大一部分股份。

And, again, it doesn't really make sense because Microsoft owns a huge portion of OpenAI already.

所以如果OpenAI真要击败微软，那微软早就已经拥有它了。

So if OpenAI is gonna kill Microsoft, well, Microsoft already owns it.

所以这完全没问题。

So it's gonna be totally fine.

我非常欣赏你的观点。

I really like your thesis.

有人问我，有没有考虑过软件公司。

I was asked didn't think of software companies.

几个月前有人问我，如果必须押注AI热潮会击垮哪些公司，你会选哪些？

I was asked a couple months ago, what are the companies that if you had to bet, if you had to go short companies because of AI boom, which companies would you pick?

我选了两个。

And I picked two.

我选了OnlyFans。

I picked OnlyFans.

我想我六个月前告诉过你，有人给我打电话，问我想不想加入一个收购OnlyFans的投资团体？

And I think I told you, like, six months ago, someone called me and said, do wanna be a part of an investor group to buy OnlyFans?

我当时说，第一，不。

I'm like, one, no.

第二，你为什么觉得我会对这个感兴趣？

And two, why would you think I'd be interested in this?

他们为什么会觉得你不感兴趣呢？

And Why wouldn't they think you're interested?

我从来没有……我从来没有注册过任何色情网站或类似的东西。

I've never I've never I've never signed up for anyways, I've never signed up for a porn site or anything like that.

不过，那些来自《牧场物语》还是什么游戏的同性恋冰球运动员哦，

Although, those gay hockey players from Harvest Moon or whatever it's called Oh,

太对了。

hell yeah.

Rivaly，我绝对愿意，每分钟4.99美元，我会做的。

Rivaly, I would definitely like, $4.99 a minute, I'd I'd do that.

嘿。

Like, hey.

我喜欢你的节目。

I love your program.

总之，我要取消订阅HBO Max，所以正在狂看这个同性冰球的内容，重新思考一切，埃德。

Anyways, I'm I'm unsubscribing from HBO Max, and so I'm binging the gay hockey thing, and I'm rethinking everything, Ed.

我在重新思考一切。

I'm rethinking everything.

总之，我们刚才在聊什么来着？

Anyways, back to what were we talking about?

我们啊，人工智能。

We're oh, AI.

OnlyFans我觉得完蛋了。

OnlyFans, I think it's fucked.

我觉得你用AI就能以原价3%的价格，找到一个超性感的人做他们那些事。

I think you're gonna be able to get a really hot person, you know, doing whatever it is they do on OnlyFans for 3% of the price with AI.

另一家公司，其实它是一家软件公司。

And the other company, not it's really a software company.

它是一家研究公司。

It's a research company.

就是收购了我公司的那家公司。

It's the company that acquired my company.

我觉得盖特纳完蛋了。

I think Gartner is fucked.

他们发布的每一份研究报告都是这样。

And that is every research report they put out.

他们的活动仍然非常有影响力，但我觉得，几乎任何IT经理或CTO只需用两分钟的提示，就能获得类似水平的反馈。

Their events are still really powerful, but every research report they put out, I feel like almost any IT manager or any CTO could get a similar level of feedback with a fit with a two minute prompt.

他们的股价在过去一年里下跌了72%。

And their stock at this, in the last year, it's off 72%.

我猜会有激进投资者进来，说你们得裁掉70%的员工，用AI替代，推出类似Figma之于Adobe那样的产品。

My guess is that an activist is gonna come in there and say, you need to lay off 70% of the people and use AI and offer have a kind of a what Figma is to Adobe.

盖特纳需要推出一个更低成本的产品。

IT's Gartner's gonna need to come up with a lower cost product.

但我之前没想过软件公司会受到这么严重的打击。

But I hadn't thought about the software guys getting this badly hurt.

但如果你用Adobe，你就精通Adobe。

But I if you use Adobe, you're fluent in Adobe.

它本身就是一种语言。

It's its own language.

这本身就是一项工作要求。

It's its own job requirement.

我们喜欢Figma。

And we like Figma.

所有设计学校的年轻人都在用Figma。

All the kids are using Figma in design design schools.

它也受到了重创。

It's also gotten crushed.

受到了重创。

Gotten crushed.

是的。

Yeah.

我拥有Figma。

I I own Figma.

无论如何，我们应该给这个做时间戳，三个月、六个月和十二个月后再回来看这些股票的表现如何。

Anyways, we should, time stamp this and come back in three, six, and twelve months and see how these how these stocks are doing.

ServiceNow 是一个很有趣的公司。

ServiceNow is an interesting one.

我曾经在他们的大会上演讲过，但我对这家公司了解不多。

I've I've spoken at their conferences, but I don't I don't know that much about the company.

是的。

Yeah.

它只是，再次被严重高估了。

It just, again, massively oversold.

但你提到的Gartner观点很有意思，因为Gartner正是那些因AI概念而被彻底打压的公司之一。

But your Gartner point is an interesting one because Gartner would be one of those companies that is in that bucket of companies that have been absolutely crushed due to the AI thesis.

但我觉得，选股在这里确实派得上用场，而且真的很有意义。

But this is where I think stock picking actually does come in handy, and it actually is useful.

我的意思是，我们通常支持ETF，也就是分散化的指数基金。

I mean, I know that we're usually pro ETFs, just, you know, diversified indices.

但当像这样的技术出现，彻底颠覆整个行业的叙事时，这并不是不合理的。

But when something like this happens, where a technology comes in and it just decimates the whole narrative of of an industry, And it's not unreasonable.

我的意思是，AI将极大程度地颠覆软件行业，这是一个非常合理的判断。

I mean, the idea that AI is going to massively disrupt software is a very reasonable pick.

重点在于，总会有人赢，也会有人输。

The point being, there are gonna be winners and losers.

在这种情况下，可能会有输家，这就是为什么你需要深入分析，找出哪些是真正的赢家。

It's possible that there will be losers in this, which is why you wanna go in and figure out, okay, what are the winners here?

因为现在，每个人都被低估了。

Because right now, everyone is being undervalued right now.

无论你的业务做得如何，所有人都在被抛售。

Everyone is getting sold regardless of what you're doing with your business.

因此，我认为我选择了一些具体公司，而不是直接投资整个行业板块，因为我确实认为，观察当前发生的情况并说‘好吧’是合理的。

And that's why I think I I I'll I've chosen a few names as opposed to going for the whole bucket of companies themselves because I do think it is reasonable to look at what's happening and say, okay.

这家公司在AI方面并没有认真对待。

Well, this company isn't taking AI very seriously.

这家公司的产品实际上并没有太大差异，而且他们与企业的关系也不如其他一些公司牢固。

This company's product actually isn't very differentiated, and their relationships with their enterprises isn't as strong as some others.

因此，这家公司实际上会遭受损失，也许高德纳就是这样的公司之一。

Therefore, this one actually will get burned, and maybe Gartner is one of those companies.

但这是一个关键时刻，就像说：好吧。

But it is a moment where it's like, okay.

如果所有人都在抛售，你就需要介入，像巴菲特说的那样，在别人恐惧时变得贪婪。

If everyone's selling at some point, you do need to go in there and and start, as Buffett says, being greedy while everyone else is fearful.

同意。

Agreed.

广告后我们马上回来。

We'll be right back after the break.

如果你到目前为止喜欢这个节目，请分享给朋友，如果你还没有关注，请务必关注我们。

And if you're enjoying the show so far, send it to a friend, and please follow us if you haven't already.

本节目由Monarch赞助支持。

Support for the show comes from Monarch.

今年你的财务目标是什么？

What are your financial goals this year?

你正在为首付存钱吗？

Are you saving for a down payment?

今年你会终于摆脱债务吗？

Is this the year you finally get out of debt?

或者你可能想实现那趟梦想中的旅行。

Or maybe you wanna take that bucket list vacation.

无论你的目标是什么，只有一种方法能让你达成。

Whatever your goals are, there's only one way you'll get there.

今年为自己打造财务上的成功吧。

Set yourself up for financial success this year.

Monarch是一款一体化的个人理财工具，旨在让您的生活更轻松。

Monarch is the all in one personal finance tool designed to make your life easier.

它将你的整个财务生活——包括预算、账户、投资、净资产和未来规划——整合到手机或笔记本电脑上的一个仪表盘中。

It brings your entire financial life, budgeting, accounts, investments, net worth, and future planning together in one dashboard on your phone or laptop.

今年让你对财务状况了如指掌、掌控自如，使用代码 MARKETS 享受 Monarch 订阅五折优惠。

Feel aware and in control of your finances this year and get 50% off your Monarch subscription with code MARKETS.

Monarch 还让你轻松与伴侣共享财务信息。

And Monarch makes it easy to share your finances with a partner.

你可以共同或单独查看你的资产。

You can view your assets together and individually.

根据他们的数据，该公司报告称，其用户中有七成表示，使用 Monarch 改善了他们与伴侣之间的财务沟通。

And according to their data, the company reports that seven out of 10 of their members say using Monarch improved their financial conversations with their partners.

用 Monarch 为 2026 年的财务成功做好准备，这款一体化工具让全年主动理财变得简单易行。

Set yourself up for financial success in 2026 with Monarch, the all in one tool that makes proactive money management simple all year long.

前往 monarch.com 并使用代码 markets，享受首年半价优惠。

Use code markets at monarch.com for half off your first year.

在 monarch.com 使用代码 markets，首年立享五折优惠。

That is 50% off your first year at monarch.com with code markets.

本节目由Fundrise赞助。

Support for the show comes from Fundrise.

投资已经入选标普500的公司，有时感觉就像在吃别人剩下的饭菜。

Investing in companies already in the S and P 500 can sometimes feel like you're being served someone else's leftovers.

这顿饭依然很棒，但你难免会想象，如果刚出炉时吃，味道该有多好。

It's still a great meal, but it's hard not to imagine what the food tasted like when it was fresh out of the oven.

历史上，只有风险投资人才能接触到那些尚未上市的全球顶尖科技公司。

Historically, only venture capital investors were served access to the best tech companies in the world that hadn't gone public yet.

这意味着世界上的其他人只能干等着IPO的到来。

And that meant the rest of the world simply had to sit on their hands and wait for an IPO.

Fundrise表示，他们正通过全新的风险投资产品彻底改变这一局面。

Fundrise says they're completely upending that dynamic with its new venture capital product.

只需10美元的最低投资，Fundrise的使命就是让每个人都能在科技和人工智能公司上市前获得投资机会。

They're With just a $10 minimum investment, Fundrise's mission is to give everyone the access required to invest in the best tech and AI companies before they go public.

剩菜剩饭本身没什么不好，但现在，如果你选择Fundrise，你就能和顶尖科技投资人士一样，坐到餐桌旁。

There's nothing wrong with leftovers, but now if you want with Fundrise, you can take a seat at the table alongside the biggest names tech investing.

访问 fundrise.com/propg 了解 Fundrise 的风险投资组合，并在几分钟内开始投资。

Visit fundrise.com/propg to check out Fundrise's venture portfolio and start investing in minutes.

所有投资都涉及风险，包括本金损失的可能性。

All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal.

过往表现并不预示未来结果。

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

这是一则付费广告。

This is a paid advertisement.

本节目由 Vanta 赞助。

Support for the show comes from Vanta.

如果你是企业主，你可能已经注意到，风险和监管都在加剧，而客户在开展业务前都要求提供安全证明。

If you're a business owner, you may have noticed that both risk and regulation are ramping up, and customers expect proof of security just to do business.

向客户和潜在客户展示信任对于促成交易至关重要，但这可能成本高昂、耗时且复杂。

And demonstrating trust to customers and prospects is critical to closing deals, but it can also be costly, time intensive, and complex.

Vanta 表示，他们正是为此而来。

Vanta says that's where they come in.

Vanta 通过一个由人工智能驱动的平台，自动化您的合规流程，将合规风险与客户信任融为一体。

Vanta automates your compliance process to bring compliance risk and customer trust together on one AI powered platform.

他们自动化了实现和维护超过35个安全与隐私框架的流程，包括SOC 2、ISO 27001和HIPAA。

They automate the process of achieving and maintaining compliance with over 35 security and privacy frameworks, including SOC two, ISO two seven zero zero one, and HIPAA.

这帮助企业快速实现合规并持续保持合规，开启更高层次的增长机会，并释放宝贵的时间。

This helps companies get compliant fast and remain compliant, opening doors to next level growth opportunities and freeing up valuable time.

而且，Vanta 不仅仅帮助您完成合规检查项。

And Vanta doesn't just help you check boxes.

它帮助您大规模建立真正的信任。

It helps you build real trust at scale.

通过持续监控、实时报告和可立即共享的安全审查，Vanta 让您轻松向客户、合作伙伴和投资者证明您的安全状况。

With continuous monitoring, real time reporting, and security reviews you can share instantly, Vanta makes it easy to prove your security posture to customers, partners, and investors.

因此，您不再需要为审计和电子表格手忙脚乱，而是获得一个在后台运行的系统，持续保障合规、降低风险，并助力您的业务更自信地加速发展。

So instead of scrambling for audits and spreadsheets, you get a system that works in the background, keeping you compliant, reducing risk, and helping your business move faster with confidence.

您可以通过访问 vanta.com/markets 开始使用。

You can get started at vanta.com/markets.

那就是 vanta.com/markets。

That's vanta.com/markets.

Vanta.com/markets。

Vanta.com/markets.

我们继续回到 Profty Markets。

We're back with Profty Markets.

娱乐行业这周非常忙碌。

It was a busy week in the entertainment industry.

迪士尼终于任命了下一任首席执行官，乔什·达马罗。

Disney finally named its next CEO, Josh D'Amaro.

他是其体验部门的负责人。

He is the head of its experiences division.

他将于下个月接替鲍勃·艾格的职位。

He'll take the helm from Bob Iger next month.

与此同时，奈飞和华纳兄弟探索公司的高管们前往国会山，为他们计划的巨额合并辩护。

Meanwhile, Netflix and Warner Brothers Discovery executives were on Capitol Hill defending their planned mega merger.

原本作为反垄断听证会的会议，迅速演变为一场关于政治偏见的更广泛争论。

What started as an antitrust hearing quickly veered into a broader fight over political bias.

参议员埃里克·施密特甚至指控Netflix制作了‘史上最具觉醒意识的内容’。

Senator Eric Schmidt went as far as accusing Netflix of producing, quote, the wokest content in the history of the world.

所以，斯科特，迪士尼出现了领导层变动，新任CEO将接替鲍勃·艾格，同时我们在华盛顿还就华纳兄弟探索频道的收购案举行了反垄断听证会。

So, Scott, we've got leadership shakeup at Disney, new CEO, gonna replace Beau Wiger, and then we had this antitrust hearing in Washington investigating the the acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery.

我们先从反垄断听证会说起，先来看一下这次听证会的一些亮点。

Let's start with the antitrust hearing, and let's start with just some of the highlights from that hearing.

我们来播放一段视频。

Let's play a clip.

一般来说，Netflix没有任何政治立场。

Generally, Netflix has no political agenda of any kind.

我会告诉你

I would tell you

那为什么

that Well, why is

你们的儿童节目怎么会充满如此高度性化、极具争议的议程？

your children's program so full of this highly sexualized, highly controversial, highly controversial agenda?

我不明白，我真的不明白。

I don't I don't I don't understand it.

这对我来说很奇怪。

It seems strange to me.

尊敬的议员，这是因为这种说法不准确。

Respectfully, sir, it's because it's inaccurate.

我们有数百万小时的儿童节目内容。

We have millions of hours of children's programming.

我知道。

I get

你的意思是这些内容根本不存在？

You're saying it's not there.

你们根本没有 transgender 角色、transgender 故事线或 transgender 主题。

You you don't you don't have trans you don't feature trans characters, trans storylines, trans themes.

我的意思是我们

It's I'm saying we

这在你们的节目中不存在。

It's not in your programming.

我的意思是，我们提供丰富多样的故事和节目，以满足不同人群的口味。

I'm saying we feature a wide variety of of stories and programs to meet a wide variety of people's tastes.

为什么几乎占了一半？

Why is almost half of it?

为什么你们几乎一半的儿童节目都包含这种高度争议、高度性化的素材？

Why does almost half of your children's program feature this highly controversial, highly sexualized material?

这对我来说真的很奇怪。

What that that just seems strange to me.

奈飞的内容与现代的种族置换现象密不可分，无论是历史人物、真实人物还是虚构角色。

Netflix content is synonymous for the modern phenomenon of race swapping, both historical and real and fictional characters.

奈飞持续向儿童灌输性与性别理论，也许这正是之前所指的内容。

Netflix continues to push sexual and gender theory on kids, and maybe this is what was being referred to earlier.

41%的G级儿童认证剧集包含LGBTQIA+内容。

41 of g rated kid approved series contain LGBTQIA plus content.

HBO上有广泛多样的节目。

You have a wide range of programming on HBO.

请说出一个专门吸引保守派的节目。

Name one program that is designed to appeal to conservatives.

我们设计节目时并不是为了迎合

We don't design our programming to appeal to

我能想到很多专门迎合自由派的节目。

Well, I can think of a lot that are designed to go to liberals.

说出一个。

Name one.

让我问你一个问题。

Let me ask you.

你觉得CNN公平公正吗？

Do you think CNN is fair and balanced?

先生，我并未参与CNN的事务，事实上，CNN也不在这笔交易之中。

Sir, I am not involved with CNN, and in fact, they're not part of this transaction.

提醒你一下。

Remind you.

这是一场反垄断听证会。

This was an antitrust hearing.

斯科特，你的看法呢？

Scott, your reactions.

J。

J.

D。

D.

万斯前往欧洲，向欧盟领导人讲授他们缺乏言论自由的问题。

Vance goes to Europe and lectures EU leaders on their lack of free speech.

如今，共和党却声称私营企业有自己的议程，而他们不被允许这样做。

And now the Republican Party is claiming that private companies have an agenda and they're not allowed to.

所以，公平地说，CNN有偏见。

So so to be fair, CNN is biased.

福克斯也有偏见。

Fox is biased.

私营媒体公司可以有偏见，因为消费者本身就有偏见。

And private media companies are allowed to have a bias because consumers have a bias.

Netflix可能是所有媒体中政治立场最中立的。

Netflix is probably the most politically neutral of all of them.

两年前，他们因为播放戴夫·查佩尔的节目而遭到抨击，当时进步派人士对节目中他们认为的反跨性别言论感到恐慌。

They were getting shit two years ago for airing Dave Chappelle because progressives were freaked out about what they felt were anti trans comments.

那么，到底哪一种说法才是对的呢？

So which is it?

我认识泰德·萨兰多斯。

I know Ted Sarandos.

无论如何，我都搞不清楚泰德·萨兰多斯的政治立场，而且我觉得他也不想让人知道。

For the life of me, I could not figure out what Ted Sarandos' politics are, and I think he wants to keep it that way.

所以这个说法莫名其妙，而且我甚至不需要看数据，我就知道所谓‘50%的儿童内容包含LGBTQ元素’完全是胡说八道。

So this notion somehow and, also, I don't even need to know the data, and I know that it's bullshit that 50% of kids' content features an LGBTQ.

这根本不是他们的目的。

That is not their agenda.

他们只是想让孩子们花更多时间观看Netflix。

That's just they they're just trying to get kids to spend more and more time watching Netflix.

他们并没有任何类似的政治议程。

They're not they don't have a they don't have any sort of agenda along those lines.

即使他们真有，那又怎样？

And even if they did, guess what?

他们有权这么做。

They're allowed to.

真正的问题是反垄断。

The antitrust is a real issue here.

如果Netflix还拥有HBO，他们会不会在高端精品订阅内容市场形成垄断？

And that is if Netflix also owns HBO, do they consolidate the market at the high end artisanal subscription content?

这是一个真正的问题。

That's a real issue.

如果派拉蒙/CBS被允许拥有CNN和TikTok，这是否也构成反垄断问题？

If Paramount slash CBS is allowed to own CNN and TikTok, is that also an antitrust concern?

这是一个真正的问题。

That's a real issue.

但这就是正在发生的事。

But this is what's going on.

埃利森家族向共和党议员提供资金。

The Ellisons give money to Republican lawmakers.

埃利森家族正在寻找理由，阻止Netflix收购时代华纳。

The Ellisons are trying to come up with a reason for Netflix to not be able to acquire Time Warner.

因此，他们正在煽动一批共和党参议员，制造某种争议或借口，以阻止Netflix收购时代华纳。

And so they are ginning up a bunch of Republican senators to create some sort of controversy or reason why Netflix should not be able to acquire Time Warner.

有充分理由表明，无论是派拉蒙CBS还是埃利森家族，都不应被允许收购它。

There are reasons why neither Paramount CBS slash The Ellison should be allowed to acquire it.

Netflix不应该被允许收购它的原因有很多。

There are reasons Netflix should not be allowed to acquire it.

这些都是反垄断问题。

They are antitrust.

这与他们内容的偏见或缺乏偏见毫无关系。

It has nothing to do with the bias or the lack thereof of their content.

这涉及到霍利参议员，还有另一个我忘了名字的人，他们纯粹是被金钱操控的，是被埃利森家族指示的：我们不想多付钱。

And this is senators Hawley, and I forget the other guy, who are just fucking coin operated, who've been told by the Ellisons, we don't wanna have to pay more.

所以去制造争议，制造一些关于监管机构何时该介入、何时不该介入的虚假偏见，而这些人根本没有任何批判性思维能力。

So go create controversy and some sort of bias among people who have absolutely no ability to think critically about when regulators should weigh in and they shouldn't.

你的昆汀·塔伦蒂诺电影就他妈有偏见。

Your Quentin Tarantino films have a fucking bias.

他们有权卖给任何人。

They're allowed to sell to whoever they want.

这根本不是关于编辑偏见的问题。

This isn't about an editorial bias.

这关乎的是权力集中，会导致价格上涨，而这种担忧是真实存在的。

This is about a concentration of power that would lead to higher prices of which there are real concerns.

而伯克议员实际上认真尝试解决这些担忧，但你却看到一群被艾里森家族操控的议员，屁股都快被他们塞到喉咙里了，连腿都快看不见了，还假装对言论自由真正在乎，还说Netflix太进步了。

And senator Booker actually thoughtfully tried to address these concerns, but instead you have coin operated senators with the Ellison's head so far up their ass, you can barely see their legs dangling out of their asses, trying to pretend they give a flying fuck about free speech and that somehow Netflix is too progressive.

对于'CNN没有偏见'这个问题，正确的回答是。

And the right answer to, oh, CNN doesn't have a bias.

它更公平、更平衡。

He it's more fair and balanced.

他本该说：我认为它比福克斯更公平、更平衡。

He should have said, I believe it's more fair and balanced than Fox.

我相信福克斯有权做任何他们想做的事，观众可以自己决定是否观看或投放广告。

And I believe Fox has the right to do whatever the fuck they want, and people can decide if they wanna watch or or have advertising.

这本应关乎的是权力集中，将资本和权力从消费者和工人转移到股东手中。

This was supposed to be about concentration of power that transfers capital and power from consumers and workers to shareholders.

这是来自两家竞购方的真正担忧。

That is a real concern from both bidders.

但这就是它应该运作的方式。

But this is how it's supposed to work.

谁拿出最大的支票，谁就能获得收购的预先批准，然后司法部、联邦贸易委员会和外国投资委员会会就安全问题和反垄断进行审查。

Whoever shows up with the biggest check gets preapproved for the acquisition, and then there is review across the DOJ, the FTC, and CFIUS around security concerns and antitrust.

相反，我们却在想，即便根本没有偏见，他们也不该有偏见。

Instead, we're thinking somehow that they're not allowed to have a bias even when there isn't one.

总之，谢谢你们听我这场TED演讲。

Anyways, thank you for my TED talk.

这简直荒谬至极。

It's completely ridiculous.

而且，再次强调，这本是一场关于反垄断的听证会，却完全演变成了一场关于‘觉醒文化’的审判。

And, again, it was a hearing on antitrust, and it just completely devolved into a trial on wokeness.

我觉得这再次提醒了我们，虽然我们总这么说，但这些参议院听证会有多愚蠢。

I feel like this is yet another reminder, I know we say this all the time, of how stupid these senate hearings are.

每次这些听证会举行，都只不过是一场盛大的政治表演。

Like, every time the these hearings happening, it's just a giant display of political theater.

这些都根本不重要。

None of it even matters.

我觉得特别可笑的是，这些共和党参议员们默认诉诸‘觉醒’论点，可能是因为他们真的不知道该在反垄断问题上站在哪一边。

And I think it's so funny that these people, these these Republican senators default to the wokeness argument probably because they don't really know where to land on the antitrust argument.

问题是，这里有这么多不同的利益方，他们根本不知道该支持谁。

Because the trouble is that you've got all these different players in here, and they don't really know who to side with.

因为一方面，哦，也许奈飞是‘觉醒’的，所以也许他们应该反对他们。

Because on the one hand, like, oh, maybe Netflix is woke, so maybe they should be against them.

但另一方面，派拉蒙由埃里森家族控制，而埃里森家族是科技巨头。

But on the other hand, Paramount's controlled by the Ellisons, and the Ellisons are big tech.

但你知道，历史上他们一直反对科技巨头。

And but, you know, historically, they've been against big tech.

但等等。

But, also, oh, wait.

埃里森家族曾向唐纳德·特朗普捐款，那我们到底该支持谁？

The Ellisons have been donated to Donald Trump, so who are we supposed to side with?

所以，觉醒主义几乎成了你们在根本不知道自己在说什么时，本能反应下立刻抓出来的默认借口。

So it's almost like wokeness is just the default backup calling card that you immediately knee jerk reaction go to when you don't really know what the fuck you're talking about.

而这似乎正是这场参议院听证会发生的情况——这场听证会本应讨论的是，当一家规模庞大的娱乐公司收购另一家规模庞大的娱乐公司时，该如何应对，而大多数这些娱乐频道现在都将被整合进同一家公司，这家公司显然存在严重且正当的垄断问题。

And that seems to be what has happened in this senate hearing, which was supposed to be, again, what do you do when an extremely large entertainment company is purchasing another extremely large entertainment company, and most of these entertainment channels are now gonna be housed under one company that has, like, very legitimate and serious monopoly concerns.

另一方面，关于YouTube、Instagram、TikTok等数字平台作用的论点也相当有力。

There are also decent arguments on the other side about the role of YouTube and Instagram and on TikTok and all these digital platforms.

但对这些人来说，这些东西似乎无聊至极。

But it's almost like that stuff is boring to them.

他们根本搞不懂这些。

They don't really understand that.

这是商业事务。

That's business stuff.

我们根本不关心。

We don't really care.

我宁愿聊聊LGBTQ和跨性别演员出现在儿童节目里的事，因为我知道我的支持者们对这个话题一定会特别激动。

I'd rather talk about LGBTQ and transgender actors in children's shows because that's something that I know my supporters are really gonna get riled up about.

这会对交易产生任何影响吗？

Is it gonna have any impact on the transaction?

这会改变美国垄断化的趋势吗？

Is it gonna change the trajectory of monopolization in America?

绝对不会。

Fuck no.

但这并不重要。

But it doesn't matter.

因为归根结底，这一切都是为了剪辑片段。

Because, again, it's all for the clips.

一切都是为了制造戏剧性。

It's all for the drama.

一切都是为了表演。

It's all for the show.

这再次提醒了我们这一点。

And this was just another reminder of that.

你知道人们常说政客是在对一个观众讲话吗？

You know how people say the politicians are speaking to a crowd of one?

比如，每当诺姆秘书讲话时，她心里想的都是：他希望我说这个吗？

Like, whenever secretary Noem speaks, she's just thinking, does he want me to say this?

他希望我说他们都正在演戏，他们都正在演戏。

Does he want me to say they're all playing they're all playing.

我还没听过这种说法。

I haven't heard that.

这很好。

That's good.

他们都在为参议院、为总统特朗普表演。

They're all playing to senate to president Trump.

霍利参议员，还有另一个我忘了名字的，他们都有一个观众，但那个观众不是总统特朗普。

Senators Hawley, and I forget the other one, they all had an audience of one, but it wasn't president Trump.

而是拉里·埃里森。

It was Larry Ellison.

不幸的是，唯一展现出真正专业领域知识并忠实于听证会主题的人，首先是克洛布彻参议员。

And, unfortunately, the only people who demonstrate any actual domain expertise or any fidelity to what the actual hearing was about was first and foremost, senator Klobuchar.

我的意思是，事情是这样的。

I mean, here's the thing.

如果我们谈论可负担性，却把400亿美元扔给大豆农民，同时激怒中国，然后把这笔钱转给阿根廷——而这种做法根本行不通。

If we're gonna talk about affordability, throwing $40,000,000,000 at soybean farmers while pissing off China and then taking that money and giving it to Argentina who's now of this shit works.

关税具有通货膨胀性。

Tariffs are inflationary.

没人愿意进行一场理性的对话。

Nobody wants to have an adult conversation.

如果你想降低通胀，我们需要做的两件事——虽然有很多方法，但最重要的是：自由贸易，取消所有这些荒谬的关税，降低关税。

If you want to bring inflation down, the two things we need to do, and there's a variety of things, but the two biggest things, free trade, get rid of all these ridiculous tariffs, reduce tariffs.

总会有一些人受损。

It'll there'll be some losers.

美国一些制造业和服务行业的企业将会倒闭。

Some businesses in manufacturing and services will go out of business in The US.

但最终，当你保护本国市场时，总有一天，你的国外竞争对手会掌控一切，然后最终他们会来抢走你的饭碗。

But eventually, when you protect your domestic markets, at some point, your competitors abroad own fucking everything, and then eventually, they come for your lunch.

其次，大规模的反垄断。

And two, massive antitrust.

我现在终于有足够的钱和影响力了。

I'm finally, like, have enough money and enough influence right now.

我知道，如果有一位民主党总统上台，我一定能影响到他。

I know I'll have if there's a democratic president, I'll know I'll have his ear.

在各种议题中，无论是强制性国民服务、每小时25美元的最低工资、单一支付者医疗体系，还是其他任何措施，我都会大力推动，明确指出：要为经济注入活力，要在两到五年甚至十年内降低物价，关键在于大规模反垄断。

And amongst a variety of things, whether it's whether it's mandatory national service, $25 an hour minimum wage, single payer health care, whatever it is, I'm gonna push so hard and say the way you oxygenate the economy, the way you bring down prices over two, five, ten years is massive antitrust.

作为选民，我们很懒惰。

As voters, we're lazy.

我们总想找捷径。

We're looking for a quick fix.

油价下跌了。

Oh, gas prices are down.

这跟我们一点关系都没有。

That has nothing to fucking do with us.

这关乎加拿大的页岩油。

That's about shale in Canada.

这关乎地缘政治。

That's about geopolitics.

这关乎沙特阿美决定打开、关闭或收紧油阀。

That's about Saudi Aramco deciding to open or close or tighten the spigot.

这跟任何事情都无关。

That has nothing to do with anything.

如果你想让价格下降，你需要大规模的自由开放贸易，尤其要打破这些收取垄断租金的垄断企业。

If you want prices to come down, you need massive free and open trade, and you need specifically to break up all of these monopolies who are charging monopoly rents.

但没人愿意就真正降低价格所需的艰难结构性工作进行一场理性的对话。

But nobody wants to have an adult conversation around the hard structural work of actually bringing down prices.

但事实是，我讨厌我们讨论的是一些被埃里森操控的村夫，而不是真正想讨论问题核心的克洛布彻和布克参议员。

But the fact and I I hate the fact that we're talking about these village idiots who are coin operated at the hands of the Ellisons as opposed to senators Klobuchar and Booker who actually wanna talk about the issue at hand.

不。

No.

我完全同意。

I 100% agree.

每当出现反垄断诉讼，或暗示可能存在垄断时，我们总是找借口说这实际上并不构成垄断。

It does feel that every time an antitrust lawsuit comes up or there is an implication that there could be potentially monopoly on the table, we always come up with an excuse as to why it isn't actually a monopoly.

在这种情况下，就是YouTube、Instagram和TikTok的论点。

In this case, it it's the it's the YouTube and Instagram and TikTok argument.

论点是，既然YouTube、TikTok和Instagram都存在，那么它们就在与这些平台竞争，这个我明白。

The argument is if YouTube exists and if TikTok exists and if Instagram exists, then, you know, they're competing against these platforms, which, you know, I I get.

我理解这个观点，它很有道理。

I I I understand that argument, and it makes a lot of sense.

然而，我们会不会有那么一刻，决定说：不，这不行。

However, are we ever gonna have a moment where we decide, actually, no.

这不可接受。

This isn't okay.

我的意思是，谷歌和谷歌反垄断案也发生了同样的事情。

I mean, the same thing happened with Google and the Google antitrust case.

然后他们决定，哦，是的。

And then they decided, oh, yeah.

你确实经营着垄断，但人工智能出现了，人工智能彻底摧毁了这个业务。

You were operating a monopoly, but AI came along and AI really destroyed the business.

所以我们又找到了另一个借口，来避免任何反垄断执法。

And so now we found another excuse to not have any antitrust enforcement.

每次我们都会找一些理由，无论是与系统缺陷有关还是其他原因，来解释为什么我们不应该实施任何形式的监管。

It just seems that every time we come up with some reason, whether it's brokenness related or otherwise, as to why we shouldn't be implementing any form of regulation.

因此，市场呈现出现在的样子也就不足为奇了，因为我们已经决定根本不想对此做任何事。

And so, yeah, it's it's not a surprise that the market looks the way it does because we've just decided that we don't really wanna do anything about it.

我们再来谈谈迪士尼的新CEO，乔什·达马罗。

Let's also talk about Disney's new CEO, Josh D'Amaro.

他是乐园部门的负责人。

He's the head of Parks.

他将于3月18日接任，届时鲍勃·艾格将卸任。

He's gonna be taking over on March 18 when Bob Iger will be stepping down.

他在迪士尼工作了二十八年。

He's been working at Disney for twenty eight years.

他一直对拓展迪士尼体验业务至关重要，这基本上就是他们的主题公园和邮轮业务，如今已成为公司的核心部分。

He has been, you know, crucial to expanding the Disney experiences business, which is basically their parks and cruises, which is now the core piece of the business.

这完全是另一个话题了，但令人着迷的是，这一块业务发生了怎样的转变：曾经，运营主题公园这种资本密集型业务被投资者严重低估，但现在叙事完全反转了。

And this is a whole other conversation, but it is fascinating how that has changed where the the highly capital intensive piece of the business, which is operating a theme park, used to be way undervalued by investors, but now the narrative has flipped.

他们对传统的线性电视业务，以及流媒体业务的兴趣都降低了。

They're less interested in certainly the linear, also kind of the streaming.

他们对体验业务非常看好。

They're very excited about the experiences.

他一直在负责这项业务。

He's been running that business.

所以现在他即将接任首席执行官。

So now he's gonna be taking over as CEO.

你对这个新任命以及鲍勃·艾格统治可能结束有什么看法吗？

Do you have any reactions to this new pick and the end potentially of the reign of Bob Iger.

鲍勃·艾格是那个从越南战争回来后，作为战争英雄，却决定重返公司，结果被自己的决策毁了的人。

Bob Iger is the guy that after coming back from Vietnam, a war hero, decided to go back and had his legs blown off.

他从观众席上不断挑衅继任者，还说服董事会让他回去，损害股东价值，这堪称企业史上最糟糕的个人决定之一。

That was one of the worst personal decisions in corporate history for him to start heckling from the cheap seats around his successor and then convince his board that he should go back and shed shareholder value.

我的意思是，这确实发生了很多事，但很多责任并不在他。

I mean, it's just been and a lot of it isn't his fault.

他基本上就像是市场给他撒了蜂蜜，然后派他去追熊一样。

He's basically you know, the market has poured honey on him and sent him hunting for bears.

我喜欢这个说法。

I like that.

这听起来像是布莱恩·威廉姆斯会说的话。

That's like something that Brian Williams would say.

这就像是在敞篷车里养了一只驼鹿。

That's that's like having a moose in a convertible.

总之，这为什么让我开心，埃德？

Anyways, the why does that make me happy, Ed?

听好了。

Look.

这家公司会有一个负担。

This company will have an overhang.

这同样是个买入机会。

This is also a buy.

这家公司要直到摆脱其线性业务后，负担才会消除，而这些业务就是迪士尼、国家地理和ABC。

This company is gonna have an overhang until they're able to get rid of their linear stuff, and that is, you know, Disney, Nat Geo, ABC.

因为在集团化结构中，我在《纽约时报》担任董事会成员两年时就亲身体验过。

Because in a conglomerate structure, and I experienced this at the New York Times where I was on the board for two years.

我不知道你是否知道这一点。

I don't know if you knew that.

哇。

Wow.

是的

Yeah.

知道

Know.

这非常令人印象深刻

It's very impressive.

但关键是

So but here's the bottom line.

我们拥有一些出色的资产

We had some great assets.

我们持有红袜队17%的股份

We owned 17% of the Red Sox.

我们拥有世界第七高的大楼

We had we own the seventh tallest building in the world.

我们拥有一家非常杰出的媒体公司——《纽约时报》

We owned a really outstanding media company called the New York Times.

然后我们还有这些糟糕的地区性报纸，它们就像正在融化的冰块。

And then we had all these shitty regional papers that were a melting ice cube.

那么，在一个多元化企业模式下会发生什么？

And what happens in a conglomerate business model?

我们还拥有一个叫bout.com的公司。

We also owned a bout.com.

不管怎样，在一个包含毫无意义业务的多元化模式下会发生什么？

Anyways, what happens in a conglomerate model with stuff that makes no sense?

市场讨厌这种模式，它会找出最差的业务，并用该业务的估值倍数来评估整个公司。

The market hates it, and the market finds the shittiest business and assigns that multiple to the entire business.

实际上，每一份分析师报告、问答环节、财报电话会议、投资者关系材料，或者鲍勃·艾格在电话会议中的发言，都大致如此。

And essentially, every every analyst report and q and a and earnings call or the investor relations or Bob Iger on a call goes something like this.

乐园是一个令人难以置信的业务，拥有坚不可摧的竞争优势。

Parks unbelievable business with an incredible moat around it.

电影工作室表现良好，创作出被引入乐园的IP，提供独一无二的体验。

Film studio doing well, creating IP that is drafted into our parks, singular experience.

没人能与我们的乐园竞争。

No one can compete with our parks.

如果你不花1400美元一晚住进一家糟糕的酒店，吃着难吃的饭，带孩子去迪士尼四到五次，等他们十岁之前，别人就要举报你虐待儿童了。

If you don't take your kids to a $1,400 a night shitty hotel with shitty food and take them to Disneyland four or five times by the time they're 10, someone's gonna call child services on you.

迪士尼流媒体正在获得一些优势。

Disney streaming is getting some leverage.

它在家庭领域具有独特的定位。

It has singular positioning around family.

人们总说他们错过了某些东西，错过了趋势。

You know, people say they've missed stuff and they miss trends.

我不信这套说法。

I don't buy that.

我认为迪士尼在IP运营上依然做得很好，人才出众，文化卓越。

I think Disney still does a great job with their IP, very talented people, outstanding culture.

所有这些都很棒，但他们还得继续前进。

All of it's great, and then they have to go.

但我们的线性平台收入下降了8%，每股收益下降了14%。

But our linear platform showed 8% decline in revenues and 14% decline in EPS.

只要他们甩掉这些烂摊子，实行好银行坏银行分拆，或者卖给行业整合者，专注于乐园、体验、邮轮、流媒体和影视工作室，这家公司的价值就会大幅上涨。

As soon as they shed that shit and go good bank, bad bank, or sell it to a consolidator, and it's all about the parks, and it's all about the experiences, cruises, and the streaming and the studio, this company goes up substantially in value.

迪士尼目前处于十年来的最低点。

Disney is at a ten year low.

鲍勃显然早就把那些电视网络挂上了出售标牌，但我认为还没人愿意出他想要的价格。

And Bob has clearly had the for sale sign out on those networks, but I don't think he's gotten no one has offered him probably the price he wants.

他可能对ABC和ESPN的价值有着不切实际的预期。

He probably has an unrealistic view of the value of ABC and ESPN.

顺便说一句，ESPN曾经是迪士尼的现金奶牛，这足以说明一切变化有多大。

By the way, ESPN used to be the cash cow for Disney just to tell you how much things have changed.

另一点是，我怀疑接下来的六个月会不会很糟糕，因为他提前离职，这让我觉得他看了下半年的前景后心想：‘糟了。’

The other thing is I wonder if the last six months are gonna be awful because the fact that he's leading he's actually leaving ahead of schedule says to me that he looked at the back half of the year and went, oh, fuck.

我不想待在这儿经历这一切。

I don't wanna be around for this.

顺便说一下，我非常喜欢你对里奇·格林菲尔德的采访。

So and by the way, loved your interview with Rich Greenfield.

我听里奇的节目时，还以为是劳伦在说话。

I was Lauren when I listened from Rich.

你让他上了你的节目，还上了市场栏目。

And you had him on you had him on markets.

对吧？

Right?

你是什么时候请里奇上节目的？

When did you have Rich on?

我们上周请了里奇。

We had Rich on on last week.

没错。

That's right.

你有些日子在我没上线的时候也做节目吗？

You you do this some days when I'm not on?

总之，这就是你所说的规模。

Anyways, that's what you call scale.

顺便问一下，你看到我身后所有的东西了吗？

By the way, do see do you see all the all the stuff behind me?

看到了。

I do.

看到了。

I do.

我太喜欢了。

I love it.

这太棒了，不是吗？

How awesome is that?

太好了。

It's great.

哦，是谁最先注意到的，顺便说一下

Oh, and who noticed it first, by the

方式，为什么呢？

way, and why?

谁最先注意到的？

Who noticed it first?

我不知道。

I don't know.

让我这么说吧。

Let me put it this way.

谁不在上面？

Who's not up here?

谁不在上面？

Who's not up there?

卡拉·斯威舍。

Kara Swisher.

她给了我好多麻烦。

She gave me so much shit.

我是说，卡拉，咱们坦诚一点吧。

I'm like, let's be honest, Kara.

走吧。

Let's go.

你是我前妻。

You're my ex wife.

这些全是我从白俄罗斯找来的妓女。

These are all my Belarusian hookers.

我完蛋了。

I am so dead.

这些人给我赚钱，给我带来更多快乐，而你只是第一个妻子。

These people are making me money, giving me more joy, and you're just the first wife.

天哪。

Oh, man.

白俄罗斯水烟。

Belarusian hookah.

我付不起俄罗斯妓女的费用。

I can't afford the Russian hoes.

我选白俄罗斯的。

I go for the Belarusians.

不管怎样，这可能算是一种仇恨罪。

Anyways, that's probably a hate crime.

这是别担心。

This is Don't worry about it.

我认为迪士尼是一个被低估的资产。

This is Disney is, I think, an undervalued asset.

选负责乐园的人是正确的选择。

The Parks guy is the right pick.

这些事情是，我相信今年下半年对他们来说可能会很艰难，因为我们对最强盟友加拿大实施了这种蛮横的关税和经济战争。

These things are they're gonna I believe the back half of the year might be rough for them because of our head up your ass tariff economic warfare against our strongest ally, Canada.

不管怎样，乐园真的很棒。

Anyways, the park's amazing.

电影工作室很棒。

The film studio amazing.

流媒体公司正开始获得真正的动力。

The streaming media company is starting to get real momentum.

他们必须清理掉。

They have to get rid.

顺便说一下，新的公司——无论是独立运营，还是作为不良资产剥离出来独立运作，抑或被他人整合——都会是不错的投资标的，因为它的资本结构完全不同。

And by the way, the new the new co, whether it's the independent, whether it's just bad bank and they spend them out on their own or someone consolidates them, that will also be a good stock to own because it's a different complexion of capital.

只要成本下降的速度快于收入下滑的速度，你就能不断整合其他有线电视公司。

As long as you reduce cost faster than revenue declines, you can you can churn out and consolidate all the other cable guys.

我觉得这会是一只不错的股票。

I think that's gonna be a good stock.

但在他们完成好资产与坏资产分离之前，它始终会被当作一家不增长的、依赖广告收入的糟糕有线电视公司来估值。

But until they do this good bank, bad bank, it's always gonna be assigned a multiple of a shitty cable ad supported company that is not growing.

事实上，迪士尼正在增长。

And the reality is Disney is growing.

我相信，如果新任首席执行官把所有的线性频道全部出售，

I believe if the new CEO sold all of the linear all of the linear.

对吧？

Right?

国家地理、ESPN、ABC。

Nat Geo, ESPN, ABC.

我认为，即使他们一美元卖掉，股价也会上涨。

I think if they sold it for a dollar, the stock would go up.

我觉得我同意。

I think I agree.

因为他们所做的一切都像在道歉。

Because everything they're doing is an apology.

他们每件事都说‘是的，但是’。

Everything is, yeah, but.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

但这些线性网络的遗留问题、业务战略的混乱，以及在最近二十分钟的财报电话会议中不断道歉，给股价造成了巨大的压力。

But the overhang of these linear networks, the confusion of the business strategy, the constant apologizing for the last twenty minutes of the earnings call is just an enormous overhang on the stock.

完全同意。

100% agree.

我认为现在的问题是，什么时候会发生？

I think the question now being, when is it gonna happen?

而且有可能，现在有了新CEO，这件事就要发生了。

And potentially, it's gonna happen now that they have a CEO.

因为，你知道，你早就一直在关注这个问题了。

Because, you know, remember, you've been calling this for a long time.

你早就说过这是个问题，不只是最近几个月或去年，我认为你已经说了好几年了。

You've been saying this this is an issue, not just in the last few months or the last year, but I think you've been saying this for for years now.

他们必须剥离这些线性资产。

They have to get rid of the linear assets.

我猜想，每个人都会涌到乔什·达莫拉的门前，要求他做同样的事。

I would imagine that everyone's gonna be hammering on Josh D'Amora's door demanding the same thing.

所以我想知道，既然我们有了新CEO，这件事现在是否真的有可能实现？

So I wonder if now that we've got a new CEO in the building, is it actually going to be possible?

也许你对这件事是否真的会发生有一个预测，但我还是要问你这个问题。

Perhaps you have a prediction on if this is actually gonna happen or not, but I will ask you the question.

你认为在未来十二个月内会发生吗？

Do you think it's gonna happen in the next, say, twelve months?

好银行、坏银行，以及线性资产的出售？

The good bank, bad bank, the sale of the linear assets?

是的。

Yeah.

这些资产已经挂牌出售两年了。

Oh, they've been for sale for two years.

这只是一个谁能拿出报价的问题。

It's just a question of who can show up with an offer.

我猜可能有一些内容，或者我不知道，谁知道呢，一些创意合同正在试图把煮熟的蛋重新变回生蛋。

And I'm I imagine there's probably some content or, I don't know, who knows, creative contracts that are sort of trying to, you know, unmess or unfry or unscramble an egg.

但这些不是会不会发生的问题，而是什么时候发生的问题。

But these it's not a matter of if, it's just when.

所以，我认为他们原本希望以更好的价格出售ESPN，但始终没达到他们想要的报价。

So and I think they were probably hoping to get a better price for ESPN and they just never got the number they wanted.

但毫无疑问，新CEO上任时通常都会这样，你可以做几乎任何事，董事会都会盖章同意。

But absolutely, this guy has typically what happens with a new CEO, you can do almost anything and your board just rubber stamps it.

你会有一个蜜月期。

You gave a honeymoon period.

所以每当有新CEO上任时，你都会对他说：老板，好吧。

So whenever you have a new CEO, you wanna say to him, boss, okay.

放手干吧。

Go hard.

赶紧行动，因为你现在有完全的自由去做任何你想做的事。

Go early because you have license to do whatever the fuck you want right now.

他应该这么做。

He should do it.

如果可能的话，立刻去做。

If he can, do it right away.

马上去做。

Do it immediately.

顺便说一下，这听起来越来越像被迫出售了，我的意思是，只有两种选择。

By the way, it's starting to sound like forced seller territory, and, I mean, it's it there's two options.

要么把它卖给私人实体，要么分拆并推向公开市场。

Either you sell it to a private entity or you spin it and you take it to the public markets.

但你知道，我们看到了Versant的情况。

But, you know, we saw what happened with Versant.

他们做了分拆。

They did the spin.

情况糟透了。

It went terribly.

股价被彻底打垮了。

The stock's been absolutely crushed.

所以我在想，他们会不会在找私人买家。

So I wonder if they're gonna be looking for a private buyer.

无论如何，看起来他们必须卖了。

Either way, it seems like they have to sell.

这让我觉得，你需要组建一个财团，给他们一个相当低廉的报价，让他们不得不接受。

It's making me think that you need to put a consortium together and make them a a somewhat measly offer that they must accept.

我觉得这可能是个绝佳的投资机会。

I feel like that could be an awesome investment.

Versant的估值是43亿美元。

Versant's at 4,300,000,000.0.

这是为期一年的回报。

It's one year returns.

下跌了35%。

It's off 35%.

你说得对。

You're right.

有人，是的，有人需要把这些资源整合起来，努力一把。

Someone, yeah, someone needs to roll up these things and make a go of it.

我觉得这些股票实际上可能真的很好。

It's I don't these actually can be really good stocks.

有线新闻仍然是个不错的生意，我想他们可能也在等什么，我很想知道除了这些之外还能赚多少。

Cable news is still a good I think what they also might be waiting for, and I'd be curious to get riches beyond this.

通常情况下，公司都是亏钱的。

Typically, companies lose money.

尤其是零售业，有个不成文的秘密：他们一年48周都在亏钱，但从感恩节到圣诞节这四周，却疯狂赚钱。

It's like the the dirty secret, especially retail, is they lose money for forty eight weeks, and then for four weeks from Thanksgiving to Christmas, they just print money.

我觉得在一些有线新闻频道上，我不确定迪士尼是否拥有地方电视台，但他们在选举期间能赚大钱。

I think in some of these cable news, I don't know if Disney owns local stations or not, but they make a shit ton of money around the election.

还有那个主持ABC新闻的人，以及CBS新闻从每晚五百万观众下降到四百万，这可能并没有体现ABC的价值。

And that guy that guy who hosts ABC News and also the fact that CBS News went from 5,000,000 viewers a night to 4,000,000 probably hasn't held the value of ABC.

所以我的猜测是，他们一直认为，好吧。

So my guess is my guess is they keep thinking, alright.

有人向我们提出了报价。

Someone's offered us.

问题是，目前唯一的买家都很精明。

The problem is the only buyers right now are smart.

这很好。

That's good.

你应该成为那些精明的买家之一。

You should be one of those smart buyers.

是的。

Yeah.

但问题是

But the problem

有聪明买家的问题是，他们只想按市场价值支付。

with smart buyers is they wanna pay market value.

他想找的是一个有钱老爸的醉醺醺的年轻小子，进来高价收购这个东西。

What what he's looking for is some drunk kid with a rich father to come in and overpay for the thing.

他期待的是像Skydance、派拉蒙或华纳兄弟那样的估值，但没人会给他这个价格。

He's hoping for a Skydance, Paramount, Warner Brothers like valuation, and no one's gonna give him that.

因为所有愿意收购这些线性资产的人实际上都有计算器，他们希望——公平地说，现在这些资产非常危险。

Because all the people who will buy these linear assets actually have calculators and they want and to be fair, these things, it's very dangerous right now.

CNN的收视率，我想，同比下降了30%到40%。

CNN just I think CNN's viewership is off 30 or 40% year on year.

所以他们一直在等更好的价格，但每天价格可能变得更糟。

So they keep waiting for a better price, and every day the price probably gets worse.

所以，是的，我觉得你说得对。

So, yeah, at some point, I think you're right.

我认为现在有私募股权公司进场的机会，可以说：

I think there's probably is an opportunity for a PE player to come in and say,

这是一份糟糕透顶的报价。

here's a shitty, shitty offer.

你必须接受它。

You must take it.

我相信他们已经有过这些报价了，或者让Versant来接手这件事。

Well, I'm sure they've already had those or for or for Versant to come in and and take this out.

但在这个时候，任何价格都能为核心业务带来股东价值的增厚。

But any any price at this point is accretive to the core business in terms of shareholder value.

我很期待未来十二到二十四个月会发生什么。

I'm excited to see what happens for the next the next twelve to twenty four months.

我认为现在是买入的好时机。

I think it's a buy here.

我喜欢这个。

I like this.

我根本找不到任何有价值的东西。

I can never find value anywhere.

我喜欢你关于这些软件股票的观点，它们可能被过度打压了，我觉得迪士尼是个机会。

I like your idea around these software stocks that may have been over punished, and I do think Disney is an opportunity.

迪士尼通常不会在新CEO上任时出现激进投资者，因为他们愿意给新CEO一段蜜月期，给予信任。

Disney's gonna have usually usually don't get an activist with a new CEO because they like to give the guy the benefit of the doubt as a honeymoon phase.

但如果有人像佩尔茨这样的人物，或者其他人开始收购或集中持股，我一点也不意外。

But I wouldn't be surprised if someone a Peltz like figure or somebody is taking is taking is starting to acquire or aggregate shares here.

如果股价继续下跌，肯定会有玩家进场。

If this thing keeps going down, somebody's gonna show up.

乔什·达马拉只需要等待某个醉醺醺的亿万富翁子女出现，或者某个沙特王室成员出手。

Josh Dammara just needs to prey on either a drunk child of a billionaire showing up or a Saudi crown prince of some kind.

沙特方面不能拥有它。

Saudi can't own it.

海湾地区不能拥有ABC新闻。

Gulf can't own ABC News.

有道理。

Fair enough.

我们走着瞧吧。

We'll see.

但说得对。

But fair enough.

我认为他们应该保留这个主持人。

I think they should have that anchor.

我忘了那个人了。

I forget that guy.

他看起来种族特征不明确。

He looks ethnically ambiguous.

我觉得他们应该让他光着膀子播晚间新闻。

I think they should have him do the evening news with his shirt off.

如果他们想提升收视率，这人长得真帅。

If they wanna juice ratings, that guy's dreamy.

我希望看到他去打冰球，然后在更衣室里和一堆男人搞在一起。

I'd like to see him take up hockey and fuck a bunch of dudes in the locker room.