通胀即将加剧

今天的节目由Darktrace提供支持。

Support for today's show comes from Darktrace.

Darktrace是网络安全人员应得的防护工具，也是他们需要用来超越常规防御的工具。

Darktrace is the cybersecurity defenders deserve and the one they need to defend beyond.

Darktrace是一款人工智能网络安全解决方案，能够在电子邮件、云平台、网络等场景中，阻止新型威胁演变为实际入侵。

Darktrace is AI cybersecurity that can stop novel threats before they become breaches across email, clouds, networks, more.

凭借对整个攻击面的全面洞察，网络安全人员，包括IT决策者、CISO和网络安全专业人员，现在能够在零日攻击发生之前就将其遏制。

With the power to see across your entire attack surface, cyber defenders, including IT decision makers, CISOs, and cybersecurity professionals now have the ability to stop zero days before day zero.

世界需要守护者。

The world needs defenders.

守护者需要Darktrace。

Defenders need Darktrace.

访问 darktrace.com/defenders 了解更多信息。

Visit darktrace.com/defenders for more information.

真正成为邻居意味着什么？

What does it really mean to be a neighbor?

就是普通的老百姓。

It's just everyday people.

你知道的。

You know?

就是一些退休的人。

It's just people who are retired.

他们下午有空闲时间，所以会去巡逻。

They have a couple hours in the afternoon, so they're gonna do patrols.

还有像房地产经纪人这样的人，开车到处转，留意冰层的移动情况，并在发现不安全时提醒邻居。

And it's people who are, you know, real estate agents, you know, driving around, like, trying to track how ice is moving and alert neighbors when things are not safe.

危机时刻互助精神的兴起。

The rise of mutual aid in times of crisis.

本周《解释给我听》就到这里。

That's this week on Explain

到此为止。

It To Me.

新集数每周日上线，各大播客平台均可收听。

New episodes, Sundays, wherever you get your podcasts.

今天的数字是49,500。

Today's number, 49,500.

这是道琼斯指数的当前点位，低于周四的50,000点。

That is the current value of the Dow, down from 50,000 on Thursday.

因此，司法部长帕姆·邦迪已正式宣布，儿童性贩卖再次成为非法行为。

As a result, attorney general Pam Bondi has officially declared that child sex trafficking is once again illegal.

72,000。

72,000.

我觉得很抱歉。

I feel like I'm sorry.

货币市场乱套了。

Money market's mad.

如果钱是邪恶的，那么那栋大楼就是地狱。

If money is evil, then that building is hell.

节目继续进行。

The show goes on.

诺亚想要这个节目的价格。

The price of Noah wants the show.

所以

So

欢迎来到预言市场。

Welcome to Prophecy Markets.

我是埃德·埃尔森。

I'm Ed Elson.

今天是2月17日。

It is February 17.

让我们回顾一下昨天的市场关键数据。

Let's check-in on yesterday's market vitals.

由于总统日，美国市场休市，且上周的通胀报告发布后，股指期货表现平淡。

Markets were closed in The US for President's Day and stock futures were muted following last week's inflation report.

更多内容稍后为您呈现。

More on that in a minute.

与此同时，比特币跌至68,000美元以下，其熊市持续蔓延。

Meanwhile, Bitcoin dropped below $68,000 as its bear market dragged on.

这已是连续第四周下跌。

It has now fallen for four weeks in a row.

此外，彭博社报道称，华纳兄弟探索公司可能重新与派拉蒙展开谈判。

And finally, Bloomberg reported that Warner Brothers Discovery may reopen negotiations with Paramount.

好的。

Okay.

还有哪些其他动态？

What else is happening?

一月份的通胀数据初看似乎是好消息。

January inflation data looks like good news at first glance.

根据消费者价格指数，总体通胀同比上涨2.4%，略低于预期。

According to the consumer price index, headline inflation rose 2.4 year over year, which is slightly lower than expected.

与此同时，核心通胀率恰好达到目标值2.5%。

Meanwhile, core inflation came in right on target at 2.5%.

但在表象之下，情况并不那么令人安心。

But beneath the surface, the picture is less reassuring.

一月份，除能源外的服务价格环比上涨了0.4%。

Prices for services, excluding energy, jumped point 4% in January.

这是自七月以来最快的月度涨幅。

That's the fastest monthly pay since July.

还有另一个复杂因素。

There is another wrinkle.

我们仍然缺少十月的数据，这扭曲了同比的走势。

We are still missing October data, which is distorting the year over year picture.

所以真正的问题是：

So here is the real question.

通胀真的在放缓，还是数据出了问题？

Is inflation actually cooling, or is the data just wrong?

为了帮助回答这个问题，我们采访了穆迪分析公司的首席经济学家马克·赞迪。

To help answer that question, we're speaking with Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.

马克，感谢你做客《房地产市场》节目。

Mark, thanks for joining us on Property Markets.

嗨，埃德。

Hi, Ed.

很高兴能和你一起交流。

Good to be with you.

我想直接切入主题。

So I want to jump right into this.

好的。

Okay.

CPI报告发布了。

The CPI report comes out.

通货膨胀率同比上涨了2.4%。

Inflation's up 2.4% year over year.

这份报告表面上看非常好。

Really good report on its face.

人们对此感到兴奋，尤其是这个政府，他们说通胀正在下降。

People were excited about it, especially this administration, which, you know, they're saying that basically inflation is coming down.

我一看这份报告，立刻想到一个巨大的问题，这在我们之前讨论上一份报告和再上一份报告时就提到过：这些数据可能是错误的。

The the giant elephant in the room to me as soon as I saw this was something that we've discussed in previous conversations when the last report came out and the report before that came out, which is the numbers are probably wrong.

我们一直讨论的一个问题是，十月份发生的停摆导致劳工统计局没有统计十月份的价格。

And something that we've been talking a lot about is the fact that this shutdown that happened in October caused the Bureau of Labor Statistics to just not count up prices in October.

他们只是假设通胀保持不变，这显然没有道理，而且这种错误已经影响了此后所有通胀报告的数据。

They just made the assumption that inflation was flat, which, of course, doesn't really make any sense, and that that has reverberated through to the numbers that we're seeing in every inflation report subsequently.

所以我的反应是，这又错了，这才是人们应该讨论的问题。

And so my reaction was this is this is just wrong again, and that's what people should be talking about.

数据是错的。

The numbers are wrong.

那我们来谈谈这个问题。

So talk about that for us.

这些数字错到什么程度？

To what extent are these numbers wrong?

它们错了吗？

Are they wrong?

你对今年一月的新CPI报告怎么看？

And what did you make of this new CPI report for January?

是的。

Yeah.

我不认为应该过分强调这一点。

I don't know that I'd overstate the case.

我的意思是，由于十月的政府停摆，以及统计局确实无法收集数据，这些数字可能低估了通胀，但如果你考虑这一点，可能会使同比增速增加十分之一个到两个百分点。

I mean, there are overstate these numbers understate inflation because of the the October government shutdown and the fact that the bailouts couldn't collect the data for sure, but probably, you know, if you count for that, it probably adds a tenth or two to year over year growth.

所以，原本公布的CPI和核心CPI是2.4或2.5，但实际可能是2.5、2.6，甚至2.7左右。

So instead of 2.4, 2.5, which was top line CPI, core CPI, it's probably, what, two five, two six, maybe two seven, something like that.

嗯。

Mhmm.

所以，通货膨胀，如果你单纯从这些数字本身来看，不考虑其他背景，也不做我刚才提到的修正。

So inflation, you know, if you take these numbers at face value, don't put it into any other context, make the correction I just made.

你会说，好吧。

You'd say, okay.

这，你知道的，并不理想。

It's it's, you know, not great.

它仍然高于美联储认为的目标水平，也高于我认为大多数美国人认为的舒适水平，但还算可以接受。

It's still above where the Fed would consider to be target and what I think most Americans would consider to be comfortable, but it it's okay.

但你知道，这还不是全部。

But, you know, that's not the end of the story.

这个故事远不止这些CPI数字那么简单。

There's a lot more to the story than just these CPI numbers.

让我们听听这个故事中还有些什么。

Let's hear what else is in the story here.

我们还应该关注哪些方面？

What else should we be focusing on?

还有其他衡量通胀的指标。

Well, there's other measures of inflation.

我的意思是，最重要的是消费者支出平减指数，也就是PCE。

I mean, obviously, most important is the consumer expenditure to flip or the PCE.

这是美联储用来设定2%通胀目标的衡量标准。

That's the measure of inflation the Fed uses to set its 2% target.

我们现在正收到越来越多的数据，包括CPI、PPI，所有这些信息都会纳入这一其他通胀衡量指标。

And we are now getting a lot of more data coming in, the CPI, the PPI, all that information feeds into this other measure of inflation.

这可以说是通胀衡量的圣经。

That's kind of the Bible for inflation measures.

它能更好地衡量通胀，解决了CPI存在的许多问题。

Better measures inflation in a better way, accounts for a lot of the problems the CPI has.

而且，一月份的这一数据将会很高。

And that that is gonna come in hot for the month of January.

你知道，当我们一个月后拿到这个数字时，我们会就它展开不同的讨论。

You know, when we get that number a month from now, we're gonna have a different con you know, conversation around that.

这个月的数据至少会上涨百分之零点三，可能达到百分之零点四，同比将接近百分之三。

It's gonna come in at least three tenths of a percent up in the in the month, maybe four tenths, and year over year is gonna be close to 3%.

这就是通胀的现实。

And and that's the reality of inflation.

如果你把所有不同的通胀指标都加起来，做上所有的修正和调整，我觉得通胀实际上就在百分之三左右。

If you you take all the different measures and you add it all up and you make all the corrections and adjustments and everything else, feels like to me inflation is sitting around 3%.

不是百分之二，那是美联储希望的水平，也是我认为大多数美国人会感到安心的水平。

Not 2%, that's where the Fed wants it, that's where I think most Americans again would feel comfortable with.

更接近百分之三。

It's closer to 3%.

我觉得很多人感到困惑的是，有这么多不同的通胀指标。

I think the thing that's confusing for a lot of people is there are all these different measures of inflation.

你有消费者价格指数。

You've got CPI.

你还有个人消费支出平减指数。

You've got, PCE.

关于这些指标是如何衡量的，以及哪一个更准确，存在一些疑问。

There are questions about how those are measured and which one is more accurate.

然后你还有第三方数据。

Then you have the third party data.

你一直在使用穆迪的数据来衡量你的通胀情况。

You have you know, you you've been measuring your inflation over Moody's.

你还有其他一些数据来源。

You've got, you know, other sources.

问题是，你该相信哪个？哪个读数最准确？哪个数字才是正确的？这正变得越来越成为一个真正的问题，尤其是在十月的数据出现混乱之后。

And a question is like, what are you supposed to trust, and what is actually the most accurate reading, and what what number is the right number, which is increasingly becoming a a a real question, especially when the data was kind of messed up in October.

作为旁观者，我坐在这里想，

You know, just as an observer, I'm sitting here.

我到底该关注哪个数字呢？

I'm like, which number am I even supposed to be focusing on?

没错。

Like Right.

对于那些试图弄清楚实际情况的人，你有什么建议？

What would you recommend to people who are trying to figure out what what the actual deal is?

这就是为什么我拿薪水的原因，埃德。

Well, this is why I get paid a salary, Ed.

你知道的？

You know?

我为你提供数据指导。

I direct the data for you.

你看。

You know, look.

你看。

Look.

现实是，任何数据都是对现实的不精确反映。

The reality is that data, any data, are an imprecise representation of reality.

有些数据能提供更精确的反映，有些则没那么精确。

Some data gives you a more precise representation, others not as precise.

它们都不完美。

None of them are perfect.

它们都有各自的缺陷和问题，你知道的，原因多种多样。

They all have their flaws and issues, you know, for lots of different reasons.

有些很明显，有些则不那么明显。

Some obvious, some not so obvious.

但我认为看待这个问题的方式是，你要综合所有可用的信息。

But I think the way to think about this is you take the plethora of information that's available.

你会根据方法论原因、调查依据或其他你所关注的标准，对那些你认为更可靠的资料进行加权，从而做出判断，了解我们当前所处的位置。

You weight those pieces of information data that you know are more reliable for methodological reasons, survey based reasons, whatever the you know, whatever your criteria you're looking at, and you make a judgment as to, you know, where we are.

美联储在开会时就是这么做的。

This is what the Federal Reserve does when they meet.

他们必须考虑就业市场，也必须考虑通货膨胀，这就是他们所做的。

They, you know, have to think about the job market, and they have to think about inflation, and this is what they do.

他们会进行这类讨论和辩论：这个指标更好吗？

They have these kinds of discussions and debates about, well, is this measure better?

那个指标更好吗？

Is that measure better?

这个有什么问题？

What's wrong with this?

那边那个东西呢？

What about that thing over there?

你知道，那些新的第三方指标怎么样？

You know, what about these new third party measures?

他们就是这么做的。

That's what they do.

他们就是靠这个来制定政策的。

That's what they do for a living to to set policy.

所以很遗憾，我没法给你一个让你真正满意的东西。

So there's no good unfortunately, I can't give you something you're gonna feel really satisfied with.

是的。

Yeah.

这里没有任何令人满意的地方。

There is no satisfaction here.

你必须把这些信息片段综合起来，基于这种对现实的不精确描述做出判断。

You've gotta, you know, take all these pieces of information together and make a judgment based on that imprecise representation of reality.

是的。

Yeah.

当我看到公布的数字2.4%时，这意味着物价在上涨，而不是我们期望的2%。

When when I look at the number that came out, 2.4%, I mean, that that's prices going up, and it's not it's not the 2% number that we wanted.

但我正在综合的信息之一，是我们之前讨论过的十月份出现的问题。

But the the information that I'm sort of synthesizing, one, the issues that we had in October that we've discussed.

对。

Right.

其二，我在考虑关税问题，根据这份报告，关税的传导率达到了96%。

Two, I'm thinking about tariffs and the fact that tariffs had been passed through at 96% completion rate according to this report.

96%的关税成本都转嫁给了消费者。

96% of the the pass through is going being passed on to consumers.

所以你有关税，这也会推高价格。

So you got tariffs, which is, you know, raising prices as well.

我还基于我个人的日常经验，我出去买东西，发现杂货店和其他地方的东西都比以前贵多了。

I'm also going off of just general personal experience where I go around and I'm paying for things that are a lot more expensive than they used to be, at the grocery store and otherwise.

我把这些都综合起来，觉得通货膨胀并没有改善。

And, you know, I'm putting that all together, and I'm thinking, like, inflation's not improving.

根据我的判断，通货膨胀正在加剧。

Inflation is getting worse based on that's my read.

但有些人会说，不。

But some would say, no.

那没有正确地考虑数据，也许你因为各种原因存在偏见。

That that that's not taking the data, into proper account, and maybe you're biased for various reasons.

所以当你综合所有现有的信号和数据点时，你对当前通货膨胀的整体判断是什么？

So when you look at all of the signals and and data points that are out there, what would be your general characterization of inflation right now?

你会说通货膨胀是在好转、恶化，还是基本持平？

Would you say that it is getting better, worse, or about the same?

我觉得通胀太高了。

I I think it's too high.

我觉得大约是3%，而且我觉得并没有好转。

I think it's about 3%, and I don't think it's getting any better.

如果让我预测的话，我认为在最终好转之前，情况还会稍微恶化一些。

I and I suspect if we do a four if give I you my forecast, I'd say it's gonna get a little bit worse before ultimately it will get better.

我们的关税传导效应还没有完全释放。

I mean, we've got more tariff pass through to go.

我们仍然在看到严厉移民政策对劳动力市场、工资和成本带来的影响。

We got still still seeing the fallout from the effects of the heavy handed immigration policy on the labor market, on wages, on cost.

你可以在服务价格通胀中看到这一点。

You can see it in the service price inflation.

所以，你知道，通胀很高。

So, you know, it's high.

高得让人不安，而且至少在短期内不会好转。

It's uncomfortably high, and it's not gonna get any better, at least not anytime soon.

当然，这个说法有很多前提条件。

There there's, you know, cat all kinds of caveats to that statement.

你知道的，最高法院会怎么判，总统又会对最高法院关于关税的裁决做出什么回应，等等等等。

You know, what the supreme court decides, what the president does in response to what the supreme court decides on the tariffs, so forth and so on.

但这是我对此的概括。

But that's my character characterization of it.

关于埃德提到的通胀率，我要说，每个人都有自己的通胀率。

I will say in response to, you know, Ed's inflation rate, everybody has their own inflation rate.

对吧？

Right?

因为每个人购买的东西不同，关注的点也不同。

Because everyone's buys different things and are focused on different things.

我购买的一篮子商品和服务，和你的不一样。

My basket of goods and services I buy are different than yours.

和这里的工程师克莱尔的也不一样。

They're different than, you know, Claire's, the engineer here.

所以我们每个人都有自己的商品组合。

So we each have our own, you know, basket of goods.

我想说的另一点是，关于感知，我们对通胀的感知通常与我们日常购买的东西有关。

I the other thing I'd say is in terms of perception, you know, often what we perceive about inflation is related to what we buy on a regular basis.

我每天早上都会买一杯咖啡。

You know, I buy a cup of coffee every morning.

对。

Right.

我每周会买一两次牛肉。

You know, I buy I have beef, you know, once or twice a week.

我经常买某种类型的衣物。

You know, I I I buy certain kind of clothing regularly.

我每天都需要用电，诸如此类。

You know, I I need electricity every single day, you know, so forth and so on.

这些商品的价格，比如汽油，显然，因为我们大多数人——你们在纽约的除外——大多数人每周都会买一两次汽油。

Those the prices for those things, gasoline, obviously, because we all, you know, buy gas when most of us want not you guys in New York, but most of us buy gas once or twice a week.

所以，这些就是我们经常看到的东西。

So, you know, those are the things that are we see those on a regular basis.

我们定期关注这些项目，因此它们对我们关于通胀实际状况的看法影响更大。

We are monitoring those on a regular basis, and so they have a heavier influence on our thinking about what inflation actually is.

所以，还有很多其他东西，比如你去买一辆车，你知道，你不会每三、五、七年就买一次，但这些仍然被计入价格指数中。

So there's a lot of things out there, like, you go buy a car, you know, you don't buy that once every three, five, seven years, and but that's still in the in the price index.

顺便说一句，这也是另一个需要考虑的点。

By the way, that's another thing to consider.

还有一个重要的注意事项。

One other big caveat.

在消费者价格指数（CPI）和个人消费支出平减指数（PCE）中，都包含了质量调整。

In the CPI, the consumer price index, and and in the PCE, there are quality adjustments.

所以，汽车就是个明显的例子。

So, you know, that cars are obvious.

你知道，每年当你去看新推出的汽车时，它们都比前一年的更好。

You know, the every year, you if you go look at the new cars that come out, they're better than the year before.

这在消费者价格指数中被算作质量提升，你实际上可以看到价格下降。

That's measured in the CPI as a quality improvement, and you can actually see price declines.

事实上，由于这种质量调整，你正看到车辆价格的下降。

In fact, you're seeing price declines for vehicles in part because of that quality adjustment.

对。

Right.

所以，像这样的各种因素造成了你实际感知与统计数据之间的差距。

So, you know, there's all kinds of things like that that make a a gap between, you know, what's actually going on in your perception.

但我想我同意你的感受。

But you're it probably I I agree with your perception.

通胀太高了。

Inflation is too high.

高得让人不舒服。

It's uncomfortably high.

对大多数美国人来说，通胀高得离谱，而且还没有回落。

For most Americans, it's way too high, and it's not it's not coming in.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为，这种质量调整在一定程度上反映了CPI中发生的情况，但很多人可能对此感到困惑。

I think that that quality adjustment kind of portrays a good picture of what's happening in the CPI where, you know, a lot of people, I think, are confused.

一月的同比数据，并不是简单地测量一月份所有商品的价格，然后与去年同月的价格做差值。

That year over year number in January, it's like, it's not just we're gonna measure what prices are in January across the board and then take the difference between what prices were last year.

他们每个月都在进行大量此类估算和调整，这就是为什么数据显得如此疲软，让我这样想要真实答案的人感到非常不满意。

There are so many of these imputations and adjustments that they're making on a rolling month to month basis, which is why the numbers are so soft, and it's so unsatisfying for someone like me who wants the real answer.

是的。

Yeah.

你的工程师背景是从小培养的吗？

I mean, were you raised as an engineer?

听起来你确实有工程师的背景。

You you it sounds like you were.

你的追求是精确性。

I mean, you want precision.

我不是。

I was not.

根本不存在这样的事。

There's no such thing as there's no such thing.

好吧。

Okay.

但还有另一件事。

But here's the other thing.

经济学家所谓的基数效应。

There's so called what economists call base effects.

每年一月，许多企业都会提高他们所销售商品的价格。

So every January, you get these a lot of businesses, that's when they raise their prices whatever it is that they're selling.

对吧？

Right?

它们，它们，这是新年的开始。

They they they this is the beginning of the year.

他们说，好吧。

They say, okay.

现在我们要开始实施这个新的涨价。

Now we're gonna start with this new price increase.

在最近几年，也就是疫情以来的两三四年里，你看到一月份出现了大幅涨价。

And in recent years, last couple, three, four years since the pandemic, you saw big price increases in January.

今年一月我们也看到了大幅涨价，但没那么严重。

We saw big price increase in January this, but not quite as big.

这就涉及到季节性调整。

So this goes to seasonal adjustment.

对。

Right.

季节性调整让数据看起来比实际情况更疲软。

The seasonal adjustment makes things look weaker than they otherwise would have been.

即使是从同比角度看，你仍然会受到这些调整效应和基数效应的影响。

Even though it's year over year, you still have those adjustment effects and the those base year effects.

因此，这也可能压低了同比的消费者价格指数（CPI）涨幅，使其与我们对整体通胀的感知和感受不一致。

And so that's also probably pushing down the measured CPI rate year over year that and making it inconsistent with, you know, how we think and and feel about inflation broadly.

是的。

Yeah.

展望未来，你对通胀的预测是，你提到认为在好转之前情况会先变得更糟。

Just looking ahead, your forecasting for inflation, you mentioned you think that it's gonna get a little bit worse before it gets better.

是的。

Yeah.

在我们结束之前，再多谈谈你预计未来十二个月内全美物价将如何变化。

Speak more before we end here about what you expect will happen to prices across America over the next, say, twelve months.

是的。

Yeah.

如果你告诉我，在未来六个月里，以PCE衡量的同比通胀率会从3%升至3.25%，甚至可能在年中达到3.5%，之后才会开始回落，因为仍然还有更多关税成本会从企业传导到消费者。

If you told me over the next six months six months, the year over year rate of inflation, let's use the PCE because I think that's just the what we should be using, is gonna go from 3% to three and a quarter, could be a size three and a half percent by mid year, and then it'll start to fade because, you know, we'll get most of the there's still more pass through to go between businesses to consumers on the tariffs.

对。

Yep.

96%，我认为你指的是纽约联储的一项研究，该研究显示96%的关税成本转嫁给了消费者和企业。

96% that I think that's a New York Fed study you're probably referring to, that the 96% pass through was to consumers and businesses.

从企业到消费者之间还有大量成本尚未传导，这一定会发生。

There's still a lot more to go from business to consumer, and that's gonna happen.

因此，我预计短期内价格会继续上涨，但到年底，我们将度过这一阶段，届时应能看到通胀有所缓和。

And so I expect some higher but by the end of the year, we'll get through the other side of that, and we should start to see some moderation.

我抱有希望，但愿我们能在明年年初——也就是明年这个时候——让通胀明确地回归2%的目标。

And I'm hopeful, fingers crossed, that we get inflation, you know, headed definitively back to that 2% target by, you know, early next year, this time next year.

好的。

Alright.

马克·赞迪，穆迪分析公司的首席经济学家。

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.

马克，非常感谢你的分享。

Mark, always appreciate it.

谢谢。

Thank you.

随时都可以，埃德。

Anytime, Ed.

广告后，国家首席反垄断律师被解雇。

After the break, the nation's top antitrust lawyer is fired.

如需获取更多市场洞察，欢迎订阅我的每周通讯：edwardelson.substack.com。

And for even more markets insights, you can subscribe to my weekly newsletter at edwardelson.substack.com.

是时候提升水平了。

It's time to level the up.

我是罗宾·阿尔宗，我点燃激情。

I'm Robin Arzon, and I light fires.

我是一名高管、创始人、畅销书作者、超马跑者、母亲、自豪的拉丁裔女性，而我的旅程远未结束。

I'm an executive, founder, best selling author, ultra marathoner, mother, proud Latina, and I'm not done yet.

推出我的全新每周播客《你的蜕变工具箱》——Project Swagger。

Announcing Project Swagger, my new weekly podcast, Your Transformation Toolkit.

我会拨开迷雾，每周为你提供可在三十分钟内完成的实用建议。

I'm gonna cut through the noise and give you actionable takeaways each week in under thirty minutes.

通过我亲自验证过的日常习惯、策略和心态转变，提升你的奋斗效率。

Elevate your hustle with routines, strategies, and mindset shifts that I have pressure tested.

我早就把这根碧昂丝香薰蜡烛烧得只剩底座了。

I have burnt down this Beyonce candle, like, all the way to the bottom.

我们一直在努力实现愿望。

We have been trying to manifest.

碳水化合物并不是敌人。

Carbs are not the enemy.

我身边几乎随时都带着一片面包或一个贝果，这可不是夸张。

I probably have a piece of bread or a bagel with me at all times, and I am not exaggerating.

2月24日收听第一集，学习自我对话的技巧。

Tune in on February 24 for episode one, building the skill of self talk.

这是基础。

This is the foundation.

在你收听播客的任何平台关注Project Swagger。

Follow project swagger wherever you get your podcasts.

我们走吧。

Let's go.

在明尼苏达州之前，伊利诺伊州基本上制定了一份应对特朗普移民执法行动的行动指南。

Before Minnesota, Illinois basically wrote a playbook on how to fight back against Trump's ICE crackdown.

州长JB·普利茨克要求全州民众在移民执法局到来时采取行动。

Governor JB Pritzker told everyone in the state to take action when ICE came to town.

拿出你们的手机。

Pull out your phones.

录下一切。

Film everything.

他们对着母亲们的脸开枪。

They're shooting moms in the face.

是的。

Yep.

因此，和平抗议似乎是你们至少应该做的，也是我们应该鼓励人们去做的事。

So peaceful protest seems like the least you could do and what we should be encouraging people to do.

他们，你知道的，他们在芝加哥就因为有人在车里旁观，朝她开了五枪。

They they've they you know, they've shot somebody here in Chicago five times for just observing from her car.

伊利诺伊州成立了一个问责委员会，并将ICE特工告上了法庭。

Illinois created an accountability commission, took ICE agents to court.

当特朗普派出国民警卫队时，他们阻止了这些部队上街，并且赢了。

And when Trump sent in the National Guard, they blocked them from the streets, and they won.

这是州级抵抗特朗普的典范。

A model for Trump resistance on the state level.

《今日解析》每天工作日播出，现在周六也更新了。

Today Explained drops every weekday and now Saturdays too.

我们继续回到《G教授市场》。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

白宫刚刚解雇了其最高反垄断执法官员。

The White House just fired its top antitrust enforcer.

上周四，盖尔·斯莱特被解除了司法部反垄断主管的职务，而她是在去年三月才获确认上任的。

Last Thursday, Gail Slater was ousted as the DOJ's antitrust chief when she was confirmed last March.

斯莱特告诉国会议员，她会抵制任何对她的部门进行的政治干预。

Slater told lawmakers she would resist any political interference in her division.

不到一年后，她因拒绝与受特朗普关联游说者代表的公司达成和解而被迫离职。

Less than a year later, she was forced out for resisting settlements with companies represented by Trump connected lobbyists.

她的离职标志着民粹主义者主张严格执法与亲商业派别支持企业利益之间的斗争结束。

Her departure marks the end of a battle between populists who wanted tough enforcement and a pro business wing that sides with corporate interests.

今天我们邀请到 Semaphore 的商业与金融编辑莉兹·霍夫曼，来为我们解析这一切意味着什么，以及她为何被解职。

Here to break down what all of this means, why she was fired, we're speaking with Liz Hoffman, business and finance editor at Semaphore.

莉兹，感谢你做客 ProfG Markets。

Liz, thank you for joining us on ProfG Markets.

谢谢你们再次邀请我。

Thanks for having me back.

所以盖尔·斯莱特已经被解职了。

So Gail Slater is out.

她的任期很短。

It was a short run.

我们是怎么走到这一步的？

How did we get to this point?

是的。

Yeah.

你知道，这种长期积累的、司法部反垄断部门内部的意识形态崩溃，终于在上周达到了顶点。

You know, this kind of long and coming kind of ideological collapse inside the DOJ's antitrust division, you know, finally came to a head last week.

正如你所说，盖尔·斯莱特已经被解职了。

Gail Slater, as you said, is out.

这发生在她的首席副手离职几天之后。

It happened a couple days after her top deputy left.

这些冲突主要集中在几起大型并购案上，而这些争议几乎从特朗普政府初期就开始酝酿了。

And there had been these flash points mostly over a handful of large mergers that had been brewing almost since the Trump's like, the early days of the Trump administration.

这个故事最简单的版本——虽然我对此有些怀疑——是说存在一些大型企业并购案。

And the simplest version of the story, which I I actually have some doubts about, but that there were these big corporate mergers.

你可能还记得惠普企业试图收购瞻博网络。

You might remember HP Enterprise trying to buy Juniper Networks.

有一起大型房地产经纪公司的合并案，普遍认为司法部对此存在疑问，并怀疑这些合并会削弱相关市场的竞争，而这些公司聘请了大量游说者，绕过司法部直接向白宫和特朗普政府的司法部官员施压，最终得以放行。

There was a large merger of of two real estate, brokerages where the consensus was that the DOJ had some questions and were skeptical that those mergers would result in sort of a lessening of competition in those markets, and that the companies hired a bunch of lobbyists and went over their heads to the White House, to Trump officials at DOJ, and they kind of got waved through.

这其中确实有几分真实性。

And there's a little bit of truth to that.

我认为这种说法可能被夸大了，还有其他一些原因导致这件事本来就不大可能成功，但矛盾最终爆发了。

I think it's probably a little overblown, and there's some other reasons that this was kind of never going to work, but that the tensions just sort of boiled over.

而且，盖尔·斯莱特是依总统意愿任职的，而她的任期到此结束了。

And, you know, Gale Slater served at the pleasure of the president, and, and that ran out.

所以你一直在报道这件事。

So you've been reporting on this.

几周前，你写道：‘斯莱特办公室所审查或调查过的公司，通过绕过她去游说特朗普政府的司法部官员，获得了有利的和解协议。’

A few weeks ago, you wrote, quote, companies whose mergers have been challenged or investigated by Slater's office have won favorable settlements by going around her to lobby Trump DOJ officials.

你还指出，她的副手罗杰·阿尔福德曾表示，决策取决于请求或信息是否来自‘MAGA朋友’。

You also pointed out that one of her deputies, Roger Alford, that he said the decisions are made, quote, depending on whether the request or information comes from a MAGA friend.

后来，这个人也被迫离开了。

That guy was later pushed out.

所以他被撤职了。

So he gets pushed out.

现在盖尔·斯莱特也被撤职了。

Now Gale Slater gets pushed out.

这件事早就积怨已久。

This has been building for a while.

在我看来，这正是没人谈论的大新闻：盖尔·斯莱特和她的团队确实尝试过反垄断执法，但只要总统或政府的亲信出面，他们就能绕过她，根本不用面对执法，这在我看来简直就像腐败。

This seems to me to be the big story that no one is talking about, this idea that Gail Slater and her team actually tried antitrust enforcement, but then if a friend of the president or a friend of the administration comes along, they can just go around her, and they don't have to deal with the enforcement, which seems kind of like corruption, at least to me.

难道不是吗？

Is it not?

听好了。

Look.

特朗普政府有许多其他政府没有的渠道，企业正在利用这些渠道为自己谋利。

The Trump administration has a lot of channels that don't exist in other administrations, and companies are using those to their advantage.

话虽如此，司法部由总统任命的总检察长领导，说他希望任命与自己政治立场和意识形态一致的人，并不离谱。

That said, the Department of Justice is run by the attorney general who's appointed by the president, and, like, it is not crazy to say that he wants people in those seats who share his politics and his ideology.

是的。

Yeah.

所有这些中有趣的是，特朗普政府上台时，人们普遍认为我们会迎来一股MAGA势力。

And what's interesting about all of this is that coming into the Trump administration, there was a sense that we were going to have this sort of MAGA populace.

MAGA中有一股力量，对大企业极为反感，对并购和企业权力持怀疑态度，几乎非常进步。

There's a strain of MAGA that is almost very progressive in its dislike of big corporations and its skepticism of mergers and corporate power.

人们常谈论政治的马蹄铁理论，即伯尼的支持者和史蒂夫·班农之流在这一问题上有很多共同点。

And, you know, people talk about kind of the horseshoe theory of politics, where the kind of Bernie Bros and the Steve Bannon's of the world are, share share a lot, have a lot in common on this particular issue.

他们被戏称为保守派。

You know, they were sort of jokingly called conservatives.

这些是共和党人，他们欣赏莱娜·汗——拜登政府的反垄断执法者——积极打击并购、挑战垄断商业模式的做法。

You know, these are Republicans who liked what Lena Khan, the Biden antitrust cop, was doing in sort of really aggressively swatting away these mergers and and challenging monopoly business models.

因此，刚上台时人们觉得会出现一种有趣的张力，而对我来说，民众显然已经输掉了这场斗争。

And so there's a sense coming in that you were gonna see sort of an interesting tension, and and, like, it's just so obvious to me that the populace have lost that fight.

你可以争论盖尔·斯莱特究竟有多想推进这件事。

You can argue about, you know, to what extent Gale Slater was ever really inclined to pursue it.

但你知道，我认为最简单的解释是，这从来就不是真的。

But but that you know, I I think the simplest explanation it was is that it was never real.

我们真正看到的，其实是白宫、特朗普竞选团队和政府内部对大型科技公司的强烈反感，主要源于个人层面的文化战争原因。

That really what we were seeing was a dislike like, visceral dislike inside the White House and the Trump campaign and then administration of big tech for mostly personal culture war reasons.

对吧？

Right?

他们被这些平台封禁的经历，对很多人来说是一种极其深刻的塑造性体验，而这种怨恨他们一直耿耿于怀。

They're getting thrown off these platforms was, like, an incredibly searing formative experience for a lot of these guys, and it's a grunt that they'd have really nursed.

而这些平台的庞大体量，使得反垄断成为表达和讨论这一问题的方式。

And that the platform's bigness allowed antitrust to be kind of the way that that got enforced and talked about.

但这个问题实际上已经自行解决了，因为马克·扎克伯格已经将Meta的重心转向了不再严格管控内容，而埃隆·马斯克的前妻也显然重新回归并变得重要起来。

But that that problem has sort of solved itself, right, as Mark Zuckerberg has pivoted meta away from, you know, content policing content, and Elon Musk's ex is, like, sort of undeniably back and, like, relevant in in a way.

因此，这些争斗已经失去了锋芒，这意味着将反垄断作为表达这些观点的手段，其效用也就随之消失了。

And so those fights have just sort of lost their edge, which means that the sort of usefulness of antitrust enforcement as a way to express those those views just kind of went away.

对。

Right.

所以我认为，这不过是意识形态联盟不可避免的瓦解，我们所有人都希望这样的联盟存在，因为它有趣，而奇怪的结盟确实很有趣，但我怀疑它是否真的存在过。

So I I think this is just sort of the inevitable collapse of, an ideological coalition that we all kind of wanted to be there because it was interesting, and strange bedfellows are are fun politics, but I'm not sure it was ever real.

是的。

Yeah.

现在比以往任何时候都更清楚，这根本就不是关于反垄断。

It's it's becoming clearer than ever that it was never actually about antitrust.

这从来就不是关于垄断。

It was never about monopolization.

这关乎觉醒文化与审查制度。

It was about wokeness and censorship.

我们在Netflix身上也看到了这一点。

And that's what we saw with Netflix as well.

对吧？

Right?

当然。

For sure.

我的意思是，有很多合并案根本不会进入你我的视野，但司法部的日常工作就是挑战这些在小型市场中具有反竞争性质的合并。

I mean, there's lots of mergers that would never sort of get to, you know, your radar or mine, but that, like, the DOJ's sort of day to day job is challenging those because they are anticompetitive in smaller markets.

但我们也没看到任何这类情况。

And we didn't see any of that either.

并不是说盖尔·斯莱特一直在到处起诉，比如亚利桑那州一些牙科诊所的合并。

It's not like, you know, Gale Slater was bringing cases left and right over, like, the consolidation of some dental practices in Arizona.

我的意思是，如果你在寻找迹象，想看看是否真有意愿继续推行拜登政府的政策——即遏制合并，那我们根本没看到过。

I mean, that that wasn't you know, I think if if you were looking for signs that there was, like, a real appetite to continue really what the Biden administration's policy had been, which is deterring consolidation, we never really saw that.

是的。

Yeah.

这其实很有趣，因为在这个节目中，我们基本上是支持反垄断监管或反垄断执法的。

It's really interesting because, you know, on this show, we're kind of pro antitrust regulation or antitrust enforcement.

我想这是我们长期以来一直在讨论的问题，至少在G教授那里是这样：大型科技公司持续合并，我们或许希望有一定水平的反垄断执法，但这种执法实际上永远不会发生。

I think this is something we've been talking about for a long time, at least at Professor G, which is the just continued consolidation of big tech and this feeling that there's maybe we want some level of antitrust enforcement, but it's never actually gonna happen.

我认为最好的例子就是去年谷歌发生的事，当时大家达成共识：是的，它们确实在运营一个非法垄断。

And I think the best example was what happened with Google last year where it was decided, it was agreed, yes, they were operating an illegal monopoly.