深入英伟达5000亿美元AI融资循环

本节目由BCX赞助播出，BCX是私营科技公司的公开股票代码。

Support for the show comes from BCX, the public ticker for private tech.

美国股市开启了历史上最伟大的财富创造浪潮，从底特律的工厂工人到奥马哈的农民。

The US stock market started history's greatest wave of wealth creation from factory workers in Detroit to farmers in Omaha.

每个人都可以拥有美国大公司的一部分。

Anyone can own a piece of the great American companies.

但如今，我们最具创新力的公司选择更长时间保持私有化，这意味着普通美国人一直错失机会，直到现在。

But today, our most innovative companies are staying private longer, which means everyday Americans are missing out until now.

现在推出VCX，私营科技公司的公开股票代码，现在你在任何购买股票的地方都能买到。

Introducing VCX, a public ticker for private tech, now available wherever you buy stocks.

访问getvcx.com了解更多信息。

Visit getvcx.com for more info.

记住，getvcx.com。

That's getvcx.com.

在投资前请仔细考虑投资材料，包括目标、风险、费用和开支。

Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses.

这些信息和其他信息都可以在基金的招募说明书中找到，网址是getvcx.com。

This and other information can be found in the fund's prospectus at getvcx.com.

这是一条付费广告。

This is a paid sponsorship.

本期节目由校友创投公司赞助播出。

Support for the show comes from alumni ventures.

你的理财顾问可能很乐意让你继续投资公开指数基金，然后下午去打高尔夫，希望你一直不打电话给他。

Your financial adviser may be perfectly happy keeping you in public index funds and spending the afternoon golfing, hoping you don't call.

但公开市场已经不再是全部市场了。

But public markets are not the whole market anymore.

校友创投公司花了十多年时间，为个人合格投资者建立了一种方式，让他们可以打造自己的蓝筹风投组合，有专业尽调支持，还能与顶级风投机构共同投资。时代杂志和CB Insights都将其评为美国前20大风投机构。

Alumni Ventures has spent over a decade building a way for individual accredited investors to assemble their own blue chip venture portfolio, Backed by professional diligence and co investment alongside leading VC firms, Time and CB Insights both rank Alumni Ventures a top 20 US venture firm.

你可以免费注册，查看每周的交易机会，自己判断，或者直接向校友创投基础基金投入一笔资金，就能获得一个包含大约25个私募风投项目多元化的组合。

You can sign up for free, see the weekly deal flow, and decide for yourself, or write one check into the Alumni Ventures Foundation Fund for a diversified portfolio of about 25 private venture deals.

前往av.vc/professorg。

Go to av.vc/professorg.

这不是出售证券的要约。

Not an offer to sell securities.

风险投资涉及重大风险，包括投资本金的损失。

Venture capital involves substantial risk, including loss of capital invested.

更多信息请参阅披露文件和基金发行材料。

See disclosures and fund offering materials for more information.

本期节目由毕马威赞助播出。

Support for the show comes from KPMG.

在任何组织中，变革都是不可避免的，但你不必在挣扎中度过。

In any organization, disruption is inevitable, but struggling through it doesn't have to be.

毕马威适应性指数是你的蓝图，帮助你建立应对未来挑战的能力。

The KPMG Adaptability Index is your blueprint for building capabilities to handle what comes next.

它利用真实数据，分析你的企业文化、战略和合作伙伴关系如何协同作用，助力你的业务蓬勃发展。

It uses real data to look at how your culture, strategy, and partnerships all work together to help your business thrive.

别再被动应对，开始主动适应吧。

Stop reacting and start adapting.

今天就去 kpmg.com/us/adaptability 网站，看看适应力指数和脉搏调查吧。

Visit kpmg.com/us/adaptability to explore the Adaptability Index and Pulse surveys today.

货币市场已经到位了。

Money market's met.

如果金钱是邪恶的，那栋楼就是地狱。

If money is evil, then that building is hell.

演出继续。

The show goes on.

专业人士可不会闲着没事看这些。

The pros are never watching.

节目广告时间。

Show sell.

欢迎来到Prof G Markets。

Welcome to Prof G Markets.

我是Ed Elson。

I'm Ed Elson.

今天是8月12日。

It is August 12.

我们来看看昨天的市场行情。

Let's check-in on yesterday's market vitals.

主要股指再次下跌，因为伊朗问题又一天没有进展。

The major indices declined again after another day without progress in Iran.

布伦特原油价格上涨了。

Brent crude climbed.

在今天上午公布下一次通胀报告之前，十年期国债收益率小幅走低。

The yield on ten year treasuries inched lower ahead of the next inflation report due this morning.

最后，苹果股价下跌超过1%，因为其Apple Pay负责人即将退休的消息。

And finally, Apple shares fell more than 1% on news that its head of Apple Pay is retiring.

好的。

Okay.

还有什么其他动态吗？

What else is happening?

英伟达正在与华尔街联手，进行有史以来最雄心勃勃的融资项目之一。

Nvidia is joining forces with Wall Street in one of the most ambitious financing efforts ever attempted.

周一，英伟达宣布与六家大型资产管理公司签署谅解备忘录，筹集5000亿美元用于人工智能基础设施建设。

On Monday, Nvidia announced memorandums of understanding with six major asset managers to secure $500,000,000,000 to fund the AI build out.

这些公司将把资金借给英伟达的客户，帮助他们建设更多数据中心，购买更多芯片。

The firms will lend that capital to Nvidia's customers, helping them build more data centers and buy more chips.

贝莱德首席执行官拉里·芬克称该项目是“金融工程下一个未来”的开端。

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink called the project the beginning of, quote, the next future for financial engineering.

英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋表示，人工智能芯片现在已经成为一种可投资的资产类别。

And Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said that AI chips have now become an investable asset class.

然而，据《金融时报》率先报道，消息公布后英伟达股价下跌近4%。

However, Nvidia shares fell nearly 4% on the news, which was first reported by the Financial Times.

我们邀请到海港全球证券的分析师杰伊·戈德堡，来一起讨论这笔5000亿美元的融资安排。

Joining us to discuss this $500,000,000,000 financing arrangement, we are speaking with Jay Goldberg, analyst at Seaport Global Securities.

杰伊，感谢你参加我们的节目。

Jay, thanks for joining us on the show.

我一直在琢磨这五千亿美元的交易。

I've been looking at this $500,000,000,000 deal.

我实在搞不清楚这笔交易到底是什么。

I can't really tell what the deal actually is.

有很多华尔街的银行和公司参与其中。

There are a bunch of Wall Street banks and firms involved.

数字是很大，但谁把钱借给谁呢？

It's a big number, but who's lending money to what?

这个融资方案具体是什么样子的？

What is the financing package actually look like?

我们实际上知道些什么？

What do we actually know about this?

我们知道的不多。

We don't know a lot.

这里面有很多不确定的地方。

There's a lot of unknowns in here.

他们昨天发了个新闻稿，内容几乎全是各方参与者那些客套的地理式夸奖，互相吹捧说对方有多棒。

They had a press release out yesterday, and the press release was almost entirely sort of hey, geographic quotes from all the participants about how great they all were.

然后今天Jensen在推特上又发了一条，稍微透露了一点点细节，但总体来说我们还是不太清楚具体情况。

And then Jensen posted on Twitter today, gave a little bit more a little bit of granularity to a couple things, but we don't really know.

我觉得值得指出的是，新闻稿里其实写得很明白，这些协议还没最终敲定。

And I think it's worth pointing out that in the press release, it actually is very clear that the agreements are not finalized.

所以具体的条款细节他们目前也还不清楚。

So they don't know what the details are yet.

对。

Yeah.

我是说，让我印象最深的一个词是谅解备忘录。

I mean, the the the term that jumped out to me was memorandum of understanding.

我以前在跟伊朗的协议里听过这个词，结果最后没谈成，还搞得一团糟。

I've heard that before in a deal with Iran that turned out to not be a deal and turned out to be a little bit of a disaster.

这里的情况适合这么类比吗？

Is is that the right comparison here?

我得说，英伟达之前跟OpenAI也有过类似的谅解备忘录，大概是六个月前、八个月前吧，在AI领域那已经是很久以前的事了。

I I will say that Nvidia had a similar memory MOU with OpenAI, I don't know, six months ago, eight months ago, eons in AI time.

他们当时打算向OpenAI投一大笔钱。

And they were gonna invest a lot of money into OpenAI.

那笔交易，同样是在合同敲定之前就发了新闻稿，结果最后没成。

And that deal, again, was press released before the contract was finalized, and it ended up not happening.

或者说，交易发生了根本性的变化。

Or it it radically shifted.

最终达成的协议和六个月后实际出现的那个版本完全不同。

It was a very different deal than the one that actually emerged six months afterwards.

所以，英伟达是一家非常注重形象、喜欢让大家保持兴奋的公司，所以他们发了这份新闻稿。

So in Nvidia is a company that cares a lot about its image and likes to keep people excited, and so they put out this press release.

我很好奇。

I I'm curious.

我不明白他们为什么现在这么做。

I don't know why they did it now.

这有点奇怪。

I'm it's a that's a little odd.

我不知道时机是怎么回事。

I don't know the timing.

看起来，我不想说太早，但就是有很多未知数。

It it seems I don't I don't wanna say premature, but, like, there's just a lot of unknowns.

你怎么看股价的反应，英伟达股价下跌了近4%？

What do you make of the stock reaction, the fact that Nvidia shares fell nearly 4%?

如果目的是激发兴奋和信心，那显然没有达到效果。

I mean, if the idea was to inspire excitement and confidence, that's not what happened.

股价在告诉我们什么？

What what is the the stock price telling us?

华尔街对这笔交易是什么看法？

What is Wall Street feeling on this deal?

对。

Yeah.

我觉得有一部分投资者，不是全部，但确实有相当一部分投资者，心里有个隐忧，就是担心循环融资的问题。

I think there is an undercurrent among some investors, not all, but certainly sizable chunk of investors who are worried about circular financing.

而这次交易看起来就是其中的一环，而且是很大的一环，因为英伟达在给客户提供资金，让他们来买英伟达的产品。

And this certainly looks like it's a it's one piece of it's a it's a big piece of circular financing going on here because Nvidia is providing money to customers to buy Nvidia parts.

我觉得这让很多人感到不安。

I think that makes people uncomfortable.

不是说大家要赶紧跑路，把英伟达的股票全卖了，而是我们看到投资者开始对这类交易提出更多疑问，想知道这到底会走向何方。

Not, you know, run for the hills, sell all our our Nvidia stock, but just like we're starting to see investors ask more questions about these kinds of deals and where where this is all headed.

黄仁勋在宣布这笔交易的博客文章里写道，

Jensen Huang wrote in the blog post sort of announcing the deal.

他直接回应了那个问题。

He he addressed that question.

他说，引用一下，这是循环融资吗？

He said, quote, is this circular financing?

然后他接着说，这个计划就是为了解决这个担忧而设计的。

And then he continued on to say, this initiative is designed to address that concern.

我们正在把独立的长期机构资本引入AI基础设施市场。

We are bringing independent long term institutional capital into the AI infrastructure market.

需求是真实存在的。

The demand is real.

这些需求来自前沿AI实验室、AI原生初创公司、企业、云服务提供商，以及正在建设AI服务的国家。

It comes from Frontier AI labs, AI native startups, enterprises, cloud providers, and countries building AI services.

投资者会做出独立的融资决策。

The investors make independent financing decisions.

我不确定他是否回答了这个问题。

I'm not sure he answers the question.

他确实没有直接说“不”，也没有说“这不是循环融资”。

He he certainly doesn't say the word no or the words it isn't circular financing.

这在多大程度上是循环融资？

To what extent is this circular financing?

如果存在循环融资的话，具体体现在哪里？

What is circular about this, if at all?

所以我觉得，公司为客户提供融资时，在支持需求和创造需求之间有一条很细的线。

So I think there's a fine line between when companies provide financing for their customers, there's a fine line between enabling demand and creating demand.

而英伟达这几年一直在越来越靠近这条线。

And Nvidia has been walking that line ever closer for a couple years now.

而且我觉得，提供某种形式的营运资金贷款是完全合理的。

And I think it's I think it's perfectly reasonable to provide some form of working capital loan.

你借给他们，你知道，你给他们优惠的条件。

You you lend your you know, you you give them favorable terms.

你让客户六个月、九个月后再付款。

You let the the customer pay six months, nine months.

这也是一种融资形式。

That's a form of financing.

或者你借给他们一点钱。

Or you loan them a little bit of money.

这在很多资本密集型行业里是常见的做法。

It's it's common practice in a lot of, you know, CapEx intensive industries.

我觉得这个特别引人注目，因为数额非常大。

The the this one, I think, catches everyone's eye because it's it's so big.

对吧？

Right?

五千亿美元，就像你说的那样。

$500,000,000,000, like you said.

而且这并不完全清楚。

And it's just not entirely clear.

如果你从AI是泡沫的角度出发，而且没人能说清投资的回报是什么，甚至用途或商业模式都说不清楚，这周早些时候你有个嘉宾就聊到了这个。

If you are coming from the point of view that AI is a bubble and nobody can articulate what the ROI on that investment is or what even the use case is or the business model, You had a guest on earlier this week who was talking about that.

如果你从这个角度出发，这看起来就像英伟达在制造原本不存在的需求。

If you come from that viewpoint, this looks very much like Nvidia's creating demand that might not exist otherwise.

但英伟达的说法是，不是这样。

Now Nvidia's take is, no.

不是。

No.

我们不是在创造需求。

We're not creating a demand.

我们看到的，怎么说呢，是一个被错误定价的资产类别。

We see a you know, mispriced asset class, if you will.

贷款方不知道怎么给这类资产放贷。

The lenders don't know how to lend to this.

他们没抓住重点。

They're missing the point.

他们错过了机会。

They're missing the opportunity.

他们根本不了解。

They don't understand it.

我们会介入，帮忙弥合这个缺口。

We will step in and help bridge that gap.

我理解这个逻辑，但那个数字太大了，围绕它的疑问也太多了。

I I I I get the logic, but we're it's such a big number, and there's so many questions around it.

这很难让人看成不是英伟达给客户钱，让他们来买英伟达的产品，左手递给右手。

I it's it's it's hard to see this as something that's not Nvidia giving money to customers so they can buy from Nvidia, left hand paying the right hand.

那这是不是公司目前最大的风险？

Is that the biggest risk for the company right now?

这主要问题就是这样吗？

Like, is that the main problem?

那这是不是就是黄仁勋在博客里专门指出的原因？

And and if so, is that why Jensen Huang is specifically calling it out in his blog post?

我不太知道他为什么要用那种方式来回应。

I I don't know why he's doing what doing addressing it in that way.

我觉得他很清楚华尔街对他的评价以及现在市场的风向。

I think he is he's very cognizant of what the street says about him and what the sort of what the zeitgeist on the on the on the street is.

所以我觉得他是想回应一下这个。

So I I think he wanted to address that.

但我觉得这里有个更大的担忧，不管这事有多复杂，你可以叫它金融工程，或者新的资产类别，但本质就是债务。

But I do think there is a bigger concern here, which is as as complicated as this is, and you wanna call it, you know, financial engineering or, you know, a whole new asset class, ultimately, it's debt.

对吧？

Right?

而且放贷的人根本不在乎什么花哨的技术。

And lenders lenders don't care about fancy technology.

他们也不在乎AI。

They don't care about AI.

他们在乎的是什么时候能拿到还款。

They care about when they're gonna get paid back.

还有，万一还不上钱，谁来负责？

And ultimately, who's responsible in the event of nonpayment?

所以看来看去，这些我们都不清楚。

And so looking through all this, we don't know.

但我强烈怀疑，英伟达在暗中兜底，提供某种形式的担保，不是针对那5000亿的全部，而是其中一部分。

But my strong suspicion is that Nvidia is backstopping, providing some form of guarantee, not for the whole 500,000,000,000, but some some portion of it.

他的博客文章里提到25%的覆盖范围，大概是承担折旧风险、偿还之类的，具体机制不太确定。

There's talk in his blog post about a 25% coverage of certain things, sort of paying for the depreciation risk, paying down what whatever the exact mechanism.

我们不知道。

We don't know.

但英伟达最终提供了某种形式的担保，这让放贷方感到安心，从而能以合理的利率放贷。

But Nvidia is providing some form of guarantee ultimately that is giving the lenders comfort enough that they can lend at a reasonable interest rate.

对吧？

Right?

因为想想如果情况相反会怎样。

Because because imagine the counterfactual.

如果英伟达不参与这件事，会发生什么？

If Nvidia weren't involved in this, what would happen?

这些交易根本做不成。

These deals wouldn't get done.

对吧？

Right?

因为利率会被压得太高。

Because the the interest rates would be too pressed too high.

这归根结底也算是英伟达的一种债务形式。

What what that also boils down to is some of this is ultimately a debt a form of debt for Nvidia.

而且我觉得债务是非常顺周期的。

And I I think debt is very procyclical.

对吧？

Right?

当形势好的时候，就像现在这样，人人都想要AI，需求这么大，这会大大加剧这种需求。

When times are good, like they are now, everybody wants AI, so much demand, this is gonna amp that up considerably.

问题是，当周期转向的时候——而周期总是会转向——这种机制会放大下行时的痛苦。

The problem is when the cycle turns and the cycle always turns, this kind of thing will amplify the pain on the downside.

对吧？

Right?

因为想象一下，未来某个时候，超级数据中心运营商耗尽了资产负债表，不再想买AI，或者买不起更多的英伟达GPU，那会是什么情况。

Because imagine what happens some point in the future when the hyperscalers have run out of balance sheet and don't wanna buy anymore AI or can't afford to buy anymore NVIDIA GPUs.

AI需求就会饱和。

AI demand gets saturated.

就在那些时刻，这些债务会到期，而那些从平台借了钱的新兴云服务商会突然发现产能闲置，然后把设备退回给英伟达。

Just at that moment is when these obligations are gonna come due, and all the Neo Clouds who have borrowed money from this platform are gonna suddenly see unused capacity, and they're gonna put that back to Nvidia.

但与此同时，英伟达自身核心业务的销售额或利润率都会下滑。

But but at the same time, Nvidia's own sort of core business, sales will be declining or margins will be declining.

他们的盈利水平也会呈下降趋势。

They'll you know, earnings will trend downwards.

这样一来，周期下行时的痛苦就会更加剧烈。

And that's gonna be it makes it much more painful on the on the backside of this.

这就是大家最担心的问题。

That's that's the the big sort of fear.

归根结底还是债务问题。

It is debt.

对吧？

Right?

那五千亿美元的规模。

That $500,000,000,000.

我猜是债务。

It's I assume it's debt.

你说这看起来主要是债务。

You say it's seems like it's mostly debt.

就是这样。

That's what it is.

对吧？

Right?

就是5000亿美元的债务？

It's just $500,000,000,000 in debt?

对。

Yeah.

我，是的。

I I yeah.

我们不确定这一点。

We don't we don't know that.

所以我

So I'm

我我

I'm I'm

稍微留点余地，但归根结底，就是债务。

hedging a little bit, but but, it's debt.

说白了，它本质上就是一种债务形式。

Like, let's let's ultimately, it's a form of debt.

还有一件事我一直想听听你的看法，他提到了一个观点，说芯片是一种可投资的资产类别。

The one thing that I always wanna get your reaction to as well, he he mentioned this idea that chips are an investable asset class.

这看起来似乎是这次公告的主要重点。

That seems to be kind of the main thrust of this announcement.

而且他是在CNBC上说的这番话。

And he said that on CNBC.

他当时和华尔街的CEO们开了一个圆桌会议。

He had this roundtable with all of the Wall Street CEOs.

我想给你放这段音频，看看你怎么看。

I wanna play you this clip and see what you make of it.

这真的是科技芯片第一次成为一种可投资的资产类别。

This is really the first time that technology chips have become an investable asset class.

这是一个非常重大的概念。

This is a very big concept.

说它重大，是因为这些电脑系统不像我们的个人电脑或手机。

It's big concept because the computers, these systems are not like our PCs or like our phones.

它们现在变成了能产生收入的资产。

These are revenue generating assets now.

高效、耐用、可替代、灵活。

Productive, they're long lived, they're fungible, they're flexible.

你可以用它们做各种不同的事情。

You can use it for all kinds of different things.

为什么对他来说，强调芯片是可投资资产类别这么重要？为什么这是这个重大公告中不可或缺的一部分？

Why is it so important to him to communicate that the chips are an investable asset class, and why is that why is that such an essential component of this big announcement?

那我把时间倒回几年前。

So let me wind back the clock a couple years.

英伟达在为客户提供融资方面是有历史的。

There there's there's a history here for Nvidia providing financing for customers.

早期，也就是2022年和2023年，英伟达基本上就是我刚才说的那种，给第一波新云公司比如CoreWeave提供了宽松的营运资金条件。

In the early days, in 2022 and 2023, Nvidia provided essentially what I was talking about before, easy working capital terms to the first round of neo clouds like CoreWeave.

那时候市场太热了，CoreWeave拿到系统后，跑几个月就能赚够钱，很快就把钱还给英伟达了。

And it was it was so hot back then that Core Weave could take delivery of systems, earn enough from running those systems for a few months that they could pay back Nvidia very quickly.

但后来，随着新云公司和英伟达的野心越来越大，光靠这个就不够了。

Over time, as the Neo Clouds and Nvidia's ambitions grew, that wasn't enough.

金额变得太大了。

The numbers got too big.

所以英伟达开始更积极地介入。

And so Nvidia started getting more actively involved.

而当时他们做的关键一步，就是提供担保。

And the the key thing they did at that point was they provided backstops.

对吧？

Right?

如果你卖不掉我们卖给你的所有算力，如果你用不完，我们会买回一部分。

If you if you can't sell all the compute we're selling you, if you can't use it all, we'll buy some percentage of it.

对吧？

Right?

现在，截至上个季度，英伟达已经签订了价值300亿美元的所谓计算服务协议。

Now today, Nvidia already has as of last quarter, Nvidia had $30,000,000,000 of, what do they call, compute service agreements in place.

这些不在账面上。

It's not on the books.

不在资产负债表上，但在脚注里。

It's not on the balance sheet, but it's in the footnotes.

在债务方面，随着这些新云服务提供商的出现，现在有数百家，他们都去找贷款机构说，嘿。

What's been happening in the on the debt side as these neo clouds, these new cloud service providers are coming up, there there are hundreds of them now, and they've all gone to lenders and said, hey.

借我们点钱，让我们买些GPU。

Loan us loan us some money so we can buy some GPUs.

贷款机构看到这种情况，他们想要抵押物。

And the lenders look at that, and they they want collateral.

他们一直认为，光靠GPU是不够的，不能作為有效抵押。

And they have always said that the GPUs are not sufficient collateral.

所以你看，很多大型的新兴云计算融资，最终撑起债务的不是GPU，不是硬件，而是客户合同。

And so if you look at most of the really big neo cloud financings that have taken place, the debt is ultimately backed not by the the GPUs, not the hardware, but by the customers.

对吧？

Right?

微软签一份长期协议。

Microsoft signs signs a long term agreement.

他们承诺购买这些算力。

They're gonna buy this compute.

这才是贷款机构想要的信用保障。

That's that's the credit guarantee that the lenders want.

但就算这样还是不够，所以英伟达不得不越来越多地介入，给这个承诺再加一层保障。

And even that wasn't enough, and so Nvidia's had to step in more and more to provide sort of a topper on that commitment.

我觉得这个市场上的很多借款人真的非常非常希望用GPU本身作为抵押品。

I think the a lot of the the borrowers in this market would really, really, really like to have GPUs themselves as collateral.

对。

Mhmm.

对吧？

Right?

因为现在的情况是，那些超大规模云服务商到目前为止提供了大部分承诺，但他们现在在建设自己的产能方面变得越来越激进。

Because we're at the point now where the the hyperscalers who have been providing most of the commitments so far are getting much more aggressive in building their

自己的

own

产能。

capacity.

他们不再那么需要依赖第三方了。

They don't need to use third parties as much.

他们不太愿意和第三方新兴云服务商签这些协议了。

They're less willing to sign these these deals with with third party new clouds.

他们想用自己的资产负债表来为自己服务，用于自己控制的建筑和数据中心。

They they wanna use their balance sheet for them for their own purposes, for their own for buildings and data centers that they control.

所以那种担保来源并不会消失。

And so that that sort of source of guarantee is not going away.

这种担保没有消失，但可能正在缩小。

It's it's not it's not gone, but it's it's probably shrinking.

那接下来什么来提供担保呢？

And so what's gonna what's gonna provide the guarantee here?

什么会成为抵押品呢？

What's gonna be the collateral?

如果贷款方面愿意接受GPU作为抵押品，那就太好了。

It sure would be nice if the lenders would accept GPUs as collateral.

我觉得这就是他想传达的信息。

And I think that's that's the message he's trying to get across.

但我不太认为投资者会买账。

I personally don't think that's gonna land with investors.

我觉得他们还是想看到其他形式的担保，所以最终英伟达会承担某种形式的义务。

I think they're still gonna wanna see some other forms of guarantees, and that's ultimately why Nvidia is gonna take on some form of obligation here.

所以他基本上是在说，这就是我即将筹集的5000亿美元债务的锚点，你们也应该这么做，因为这是大家都能做的事情。

So he's basically saying this is the anchor of the $500,000,000,000 in debt that I'm about to go raise, and you guys should all do the same thing because this is this is something that we can all do.

对吧？

Right?

没错。

That's right.

不过，公平地说，我得承认这个市场的一大担忧就是GPU的贬值。

Now now in in in fairness to them, I I I will say that one of the big concerns around this market has been depreciation of GPUs.

是的。

Yes.

对吧？

Right?

这个问题一直备受争议。

This has been, you know, hotly debated.

迈克尔·伯里也谈过这个。

Michael Burry's talked about it.

你们也讨论过这个。

You guys have talked about it.

黄仁勋说得有道理，旧硬件确实不像那些看空的人说的那样贬值那么快。

Jensen makes a valid point in that older hardware doesn't depreciate quite as quickly as the the worst as the bears will say.

而且英伟达在更新和提升旧平台性能方面做得确实很好。

And Nvidia has actually done a really good job of updating and advancing the capabilities of its older platforms.

所以现在同样的系统，通过软件和其他调整，能比一年前产生更多的输出和更多的令牌。

So you can get more output, more tokens from a system now than you could a year ago from the same system through software and other tweaks.

所以这方面的影响也是存在的。

So there is there is some of that too.

他也是在努力传达这个信息，而且他们确实做得不错。

He's trying to get that message across too, and and and they've done a good job of that.

我要为这一点给他们点赞。

I wanna give them credit for it.

但归根结底，这是在试图把GPU当作抵押品来卖，这对投资者来说很难接受。

But ultimately, it's it's trying to sell GPUs as collateral, and it's it's not it's it's tough sell to investors.

好的。

Alright.

Jay Goldberg是Seaport Global Securities的分析师。

Jay Goldberg is analyst at Seaport Global Securities.

Jay，非常感谢你抽出时间。

Jay, we really appreciate your time.

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢。

Thank you.

休息之后，带来航天行业的最新消息。

After the break, an update on the space industry.

顺便说一下，从周一开始，这个节目将进入夏季休假。

And by the way, starting Monday, this show will be taking a summer vacation.

是的。

Yes.

我们接下来两周会休息。

We will be on break for the next two weeks.

我们会在8月31日带着新一期节目回来。

We will be back on August 31 with a fresh episode.

在那之前，祝你们夏天愉快。

Until then, enjoy your summer.

本期节目由granola赞助播出。

Support for the show comes from granola.

你知道连续开会有多累吧。

You know the struggle of back to back meetings.

你一边点头附和，一边努力参与，想保持专注，但眼睛还是忍不住瞟向时钟，盼着它快点走。

You're nodding along, contributing, trying to stay present, but you still find your eyes drifting to the clock and willing it to go faster.

开会可能很烦，但有了granola，开会就轻松多了。

Meetings can be a lot, but granola makes them a whole lot better.

Granola 是一款 AI 驱动的记事本，专为真实人的真实会议方式而设计。

Granola is the AI powered notepad built for the way real people actually meet.

它的工作方式是这样的。

Here's how it works.

你可以像平时一样随手记笔记，后台中，Granola 会安全地转录会议内容。

You take rough notes like you normally would and in the background, granola securely transcribes the meeting.

会议结束后，它会把所有内容整理成清晰、结构化和真正有用的笔记。

Then it turns everything into clean, structured, actually useful notes when the meeting ends.

最棒的是，Granola 通过你的设备音频工作，这意味着它可以无缝集成到你已经在使用的视频会议工具中。

And the best part, granola works through your device's audio, which means it integrates seamlessly into the video conferencing tools you already use.

无需设置，没有尴尬的机器人。

No setup, no awkward bots.

现在你可以真正倾听，而不是疯狂地逐字输入，同时还能清楚知道决定了什么，谁在做什么，以及接下来要做什么。

Now you get to actually listen instead of frantically typing every word and still walk away knowing exactly what was decided, who's doing what, and what comes next.

如果你天天被会议占据，Granola 绝对是明智之选。

So if meetings are eating your day, granola is a no brainer.

你可以完全免费试用三个月。

You can try it totally free for three months.

直接访问 granola.ai/markets。

Just head to granola.ai/markets.

就是 granola.ai/markets，帮你把时间找回来。

That's granola.ai/markets to get your time back.

在 granola.ai/markets 免费获得三个月。

Get three months free at granola.ai/markets.

本期节目由 Framer 赞助支持。

Support for the show comes from Framer.

如果你的团队想要一个看起来和感觉上都像手工打造、但又能快速上线的网站，Framer就是为此而生的。

If your team wants a website that looks and feels handcrafted but is still fast to ship, Framer is built for that.

你在可视化画布上设计，内置响应式布局、托管和CMS，所以从第一天起就能直接投入生产。

You design on a visual canvas with responsive layouts, hosting, and a CMS built in so the work is production ready from day one.

Agents会和你一起工作，起草页面、打磨各个部分，然后你审核并发布最终上线的内容。

Agents work alongside you to draft pages and polish sections, then you review and publish what goes live.

Framer是创作者、团队和企业使用的专业网站建设工具，适合那些想要专业网站并注重每个细节的人。

Framer is the pro site builder for creators, teams, and businesses that want a professional site and care enough to get every detail right.

智能助手弥补了AI生成创意与实际网站开发之间的差距。

Agents solve the gap between AI generated ideas and production ready website work.

这个助手就在真实网站设计、管理、审核和发布的地方工作。

The agent works in the same place where the real site is designed, managed, reviewed, and published.

内容直接呈现在画布上，保持可编辑状态，团队准备好后即可发布。

It lands on the canvas, stays editable, and can be published when the team is ready.

智能助手和框架与团队协作，在同一画布上简化合作，构建自定义代码组件，创建和管理CMS内容，优化SEO设置，并在一个地方完成所有发布。

Agents and Framework alongside teams to streamline collaboration on the same canvas, build custom code components, create and manage CMS content, optimize SEO settings, and ship everything all in one place.

了解如何从Framer专家那里获得更多网站功能，或立即在framer.com/markets免费开始建设，享受Framer Pro年度计划30%的折扣。

Learn how you can get more out of your site from a Framer specialist or get started building for free today at framer.com/markets for 30% off of Framer Pro annual plan.

访问framer.com/markets即可享受30%折扣。

That's framer.com/markets for 30% off.

Framer.com/markets。

Framer.com/markets.

可能会有一些规则和限制。

Rules and restrictions may apply.

本期节目由BCX赞助播出，BCX是私人科技领域的公开股票代码。

Support for the show comes from BCX, the public ticker for private tech.

几代以来，美国公司凭借他们的聪明才智和决心推动着世界前进。

For generations, American companies have moved the world forward through their ingenuity and determination.

而几代以来，普通美国人也能通过也许是最伟大的创新——美国股市——参与这段旅程。

And for generations, everyday Americans could be a part of that journey through perhaps the greatest innovation of all, The US stock market.

不管你是底特律的工厂工人还是奥马哈的农民，任何人都能拥有伟大美国公司的一部分。

It didn't matter whether you were a factory worker in Detroit or a farmer in Omaha, anyone can own a piece of the great American companies.

但现在，情况变了。

But now that's changed.

如今，我们最具创新力的公司选择保持私有，而不是上市。

Today, our most innovative companies are staying private rather than going public.

结果就是，普通美国人被排除在投资之外，越来越落后，而少数人却独享所有好处，直到现在。

The result is that everyday Americans are excluded from investing and getting left further behind while a select few reap all the benefits until now.

现在介绍VCX，私人科技公司的公开股票代码，现在你可以在任何买股票的地方买到它。

Introducing VCX, the public ticker for private tech, now available wherever you buy stocks.

Fundrise的VCX让每个人都有机会投资下一代创新，包括引领AI革命、太空探索、国防科技等领域的公司。

VCX by Fundrise gives everyone the opportunity to invest in the next generation of innovation, including the companies leading the AI revolution, space exploration, defense tech, and more.

更多信息请访问getvcx.com。

Visit getvcx.com for more info.

就是getvcx.com。

That's getvcx.com.

投资前请仔细考虑投资材料，包括目标、风险、收费和费用。

Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses.

这些信息和其他信息可以在基金的招股说明书中找到，网址是getvcx.com。

This and other information can be found in the fund's prospectus at getvcx.com.

这是一次付费赞助。

This is a paid sponsorship.

我们回来了，这里是Prof G Markets节目。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

美国两家最大的太空公司周一晚公布了财报，但都没让投资者满意。

Two of the biggest space companies in America reported earnings Monday night, and neither one gave investors much to like.

火箭实验室营收创纪录达到2.34亿美元，同比增长62%，但亏损比分析师预期的还要多。

Rocket Lab brought in a record $234,000,000 in revenue, up 62% from last year, but it lost more money than analysts were expecting.

AST太空移动收入未达预期，亏损扩大了一倍多，达到2.31亿美元。

AST SpaceMobile came in short on revenue, and its losses more than doubled to $231,000,000.

其中很大一部分亏损来自1.26亿美元的减值，原因是蓝源公司今年早些时候把一颗卫星发射到了错误的轨道。

A big chunk of that loss was a $126,000,000 write off from a satellite that Blue Origin had launched into the wrong orbit earlier this year.

两份财报公布后，两家公司的股价都下跌了。

Both stocks fell on those reports.

不过，这两家公司的真正故事要追溯到6月份，当时SpaceX上市，投资者纷纷抛售其他太空股，想必是为了买入SpaceX的股票。

The real story for these two, though, goes back to June when SpaceX went public and investors sold off the rest of the sector presumably to buy in.

SpaceX IPO当天，火箭实验室下跌了11%，AST下跌了16%。

Rocket Lab dropped 11% on the day of SpaceX's IPO, and AST dropped 16%.

到了7月，太空股继续下滑，其中一些跌幅高达40%。

Space stocks continue to slide through July with some of them cratering as much as 40%.

如今，SpaceX的股价已经跌破发行价，但那些资金还是没有回流到航天板块的其他公司。

Today, SpaceX trades below its IPO price, but that money still hasn't come back to the rest of the space sector.

那么航天行业接下来会怎么样呢？

So what is next for the space industry?

今天我们请到了TMF Associates的总裁蒂姆·法勒。

We are speaking with Tim Farrar, president of TMF Associates.

蒂姆，感谢你来到我们的节目。

Tim, thanks for joining us on the show.

我们刚刚看到了另外两家大型航天公司，AST SpaceMobile和Rocket Lab，发布了相当重要的财报。

We got some pretty important earnings reports from two of the other big space companies, AST SpaceMobile and also Rocket Lab.

看起来投资者现在对这个行业有点信心不足了。

It seems that investors are getting kinda shaky, about this sector right now.

你对这些财报怎么看？还有SpaceX上市之后，航天板块的走势你怎么看？

What do you make of the earnings, and what do you make of of space post SpaceX IPO?

嗯，其实Rocket Lab和AST都在试图模仿SpaceX。

Well, both Rocket Lab and AST are trying to emulate SpaceX.

他们想要垂直整合。

They're trying to vertically integrate.

所以火箭实验室一开始是造火箭的。

So Rocket Lab started off building rockets.

后来进入了卫星系统领域。

It moved into satellite systems.

现在他们收购铱星公司，是为了增加服务层面的应用。

Now it's buying Iridium to add the application layer to that service.

这和SpaceX一样，SpaceX也是从火箭起步，然后造卫星，自己搞出了星链。

So that's the same as SpaceX, which started off with rockets, building satellites, built up Starlink itself.

AST走的是另一条路。

AST started in a different direction.

他们一开始造卫星，想发射自己的星座。

They started building satellites to launch their own constellation.

他们几个月前刚筹集了超过十亿美元，想进入发射业务，因为他们很难从第三方获得发射机会，而且就像你说的，他们和蓝色起源之间出了问题，新格伦火箭在发射台上爆炸，让问题更加严重，那是在他们发射失败之后，现在他们正急着找发射机会。

They just raised over a billion dollars a couple of months ago to try and move into the launch business, because they're struggling to get launches from third parties, and as you said, they had the problems with Blue Origin, which were amplified when the New Glenn rocket exploded on the pad just after their failed launch, and now they're scrambling for launches.