石油危机即将打破全球供应链吗？

本节目由VCX赞助，VCX是私营科技公司的公开股票代码。

Support for the show comes from VCX, the public ticker for private tech.

美国股市开启了历史上最大规模的财富创造浪潮。

The US stock market started history's greatest wave of wealth creation.

从底特律的工厂工人到奥马哈的农民，任何人都能拥有美国伟大公司的股份。

From factory workers in Detroit to farmers in Omaha, anyone could own a piece of the great American companies.

但如今，我们最具创新性的公司长期保持私有状态，这意味着普通美国人直到现在才得以参与。

But today, our most innovative companies are staying private longer, which means everyday Americans are missing out until now.

隆重推出VCX，私营科技公司的公开股票代码。

Introducing VCX, a public ticker for private tech.

了解更多详情，请访问getvcx.com。

Visit getvcx.com for more info.

那就是getvcx.com。

That's getvcx.com.

投资前请仔细考虑投资材料，包括投资目标、风险费用和开支。

Carefully consider the investment materials before investing, including objectives, risk charges, and expenses.

更多相关信息请参阅基金招募说明书，网址为getvcx.com。

This and other information can be found in the Fund's Prospectus at getvcx.com.

这是付费赞助内容。

This is a paid sponsorship.

本节目由public.com赞助。

Support for the show comes from public.com.

你有核心持仓，一些高信心度的选股，甚至可能还有一些策略性选项。

You got your core holdings, some high conviction picks, maybe even a few strategic options at play.

那么，为什么不换一个为认真投资者打造的投资平台呢？

So why not switch the investment platform built for those who take it seriously?

前往public.com/profg，转移你的投资组合即可获得无上限的1%奖励。

Go to public.com/profg and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio.

网址是public.com/profg。

That's public.com/profg.

由Public Investing付费投放。

Paid for by Public Investing.

所有投资都涉及损失风险，包括本金损失，经纪服务适用于美国上市的注册证券。

All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal brokered services for US listed registered securities.

自我指导账户中的期权和债券由Public Investing Inc提供，该公司是FINRA和SIPC的成员。

Options and bonds in a self directed account are offered by Public Investing Inc, member FINRA, and SIPC.

完整披露信息请访问public.com/disclosures。

Complete disclosures available at public.com/disclosures.

在一个阴郁的日子里，鲍勃的冰淇淋车看起来灰暗而沉闷。

Once upon a dismal day, Bob's ice cream van looked gloomy and gray.

尽管他志向远大，但他的社交媒体却缺乏创意视野。

Although he had big ambitions, his socials lacked creative vision.

哦，这么糟糕吗？

Oh, that bad?

也许是吸血鬼的食欲？

Maybe vampit appetite?

我有个主意。

I have an idea.

鲍勃推出了Canva并开始行动。

Bob launched Canva and got into gear.

制作一个以吸血鬼为主题的视频，并让它成为

Create a video in the vampire theme and make it the

有趣的中小企业。

funny SME.

它火了。

It went viral.

鲍勃的生意迎来了复兴。

Bob's business, a revival.

现在想象一下，当你在canva.com上发挥想象力时，你的梦想会变成什么样子。

Now imagine what your dreams can become when you put imagination to work at canva.com.

今天的数字是190亿。

Today's number, 19,000,000,000.

这就是翻新纽约新约翰·肯尼迪机场所需的费用。

That's how many dollars it will cost to renovate New York's new JFK Airport.

这使得它成为自凯莉·詹纳以来美国最昂贵的重建项目之一。

That makes it one of the most expensive US reconstruction projects since Kylie Jenner.

我要开始了。

I'm gonna start.

货币市场疯了。

Money market's mad.

如果钱是邪恶的，那么那栋楼就是地狱。

If money is evil, then that building is hell.

演出开始了。

The show goes up.

总统从来没看过，就这样吧。

The president never watched it so so.

欢迎来到Prof G市场。

Welcome to Prof G Markets.

我是埃德·埃尔森。

I'm Ed Elson.

今天是3月25日。

It is March 25.

我们来回顾一下昨天的市场关键数据。

Let's check-in on yesterday's market vitals.

标普500和道琼斯指数小幅下跌，因为投资者正在寻求伊朗谈判的明确信号。

The S and P and the Dow declined marginally as investors looked for clarity on negotiations with Iran.

与此同时，特朗普政府向中东增派了更多军队，油价再度上涨。

Meanwhile, the Trump administration deployed more troops to the Middle East and oil resumed its climb.

最后，纳斯达克指数下跌，因为软件股再次大幅下挫。

And finally, the Nasdaq dropped as software stocks took yet another dive.

关于这一点，稍后再详细说明。

More on that later.

好的。

Okay.

还有其他什么大事发生吗？

What else is happening?

霍尔木兹海峡承担着全球五分之一的能源出口，如今已实际关闭了二十五天，其连锁影响正在全球范围内显现。

The Strait Of Hormuz, which carries a fifth of global energy exports, has now been effectively closed for twenty five days, and the ripple effects are being felt across the globe.

自战争爆发以来，化肥价格已上涨了25%。

Fertilizer prices are up 25% since the war began.

汽油价格上涨了30%。

Gas is up 30%.

柴油价格上涨了40%。

Diesel is up 40%.

与此同时，航运中断推高了全球货运成本并延长了交货时间。

Meanwhile, shipping disruptions are raising global freight costs and extending delivery times.

船舶战争风险保险保费上涨了约50%，而油轮航运成本更是飙升了高达200%。

War risk insurance premiums for vessels have increased by about 50% and oil tanker shipping costs have exploded by as much as 200%.

因此，为了深入分析这一切对全球供应链意味着什么，我们邀请到了Flexport的首席执行官瑞安·彼得森，该公司是全球领先的货运与物流平台之一。

So here to break down what all of this means for global supply chains, we're joined by Ryan Petersen, CEO of Flex port, one of the world's leading freight and logistics platforms.

瑞安，每当供应链出现状况时，我都非常高兴邀请你来做客，因为你是少数真正身处这个行业、亲眼目睹前线动态的人之一。

Ryan, I always love having you on whenever something is happening with supply chains because you're one of the few people who is actually in this business and you're seeing what is happening on the ground.

我一直在关注价格的变化，特别是柴油价格。

I have been reading about what is happening to prices, specifically diesel prices.

我一直在观察柴油和燃油价格的变动。

I've been seeing what's happening to diesel prices and fuel.

我注意到，这导致了所有类型货运价格的急剧上涨，基本上任何运输货物的环节都受到了影响。

And I've been seeing that this is just exploding prices for all forms of freight, basically anything that ships anything.

我很好奇，想听听你目前在实地看到的情况。

I'd just be interested to hear what you're seeing on the ground right now.

是的。

Yeah.

嘿。

Hey.

很好。

Great.

谢谢邀请我参加。

Thanks for having me on.

特别是，我们在航空货运市场看到了这种情况，这显然严重依赖喷气燃料，还有中东的航空公司，比如阿联酋航空、卡塔尔航空、阿提哈德航空，还有沙特航空，它们共同占据了全球航空货运能力的18%。

Especially, we're seeing it in an air freight market, which obviously is very jet fuel driven, but also the Middle Eastern air carriers, think Emirates and Qatar and Etihad, and and I guess Saudia, which is the Saudi one, they represent 18% of all air cargo capacity in the world.

阿联酋航空是全球最大的航空公司，我认为，而迪拜是全球最大的航空货运枢纽。

Emirates is the world's biggest airline, I think, and Dubai is the biggest air cargo airport in the world.

所以这些航线基本上已经停摆了。

So it's just a huge and those have basically been taken offline.

它们刚开始缓慢恢复。

They started to eke their way back up.

我今天没看到最新数据，但它们正试图恢复航班，结果机场又遭遇了新的袭击。

I didn't see the latest today, but they were trying to bring flights back and then, you know, new attacks at the airport.

它们的运力基本上又被大幅削减了。

They've they've more or less ramped that way, way down.

因此，尤其是亚洲到欧洲的航空货运价格翻了一倍。

So especially Asia to Europe, the air cargo prices are double.

事实上，我们在Flexport开发了一项服务，从亚洲运货到欧洲：我们先把货物跨太平洋运到洛杉矶，再从洛杉矶飞往欧洲，这显然不是最优方案，但这样能帮客户省钱并确保货物送达。

In fact, we at Flexport have built this service to ship going from Asia to Europe, we're shipping cargo across the Pacific Ocean, bringing it to LAX, and then flying it to Europe from Los Angeles, which is not suboptimal to say the least, but saving people money to by doing it that way and getting it there.

实际上，波斯湾对海运的影响从集装箱运输的角度来看并不大。

The alternative actually, the biggest impact on ocean freight is the Persian Gulf is not that big of a deal from a container shipping standpoint.

更大的故事，显然远不止于此，那就是石油。

The bigger story, obviously, by far is oil.

你提到了化肥，以及一些从石油产品衍生出来的其他下游产品。

You mentioned fertilizer, some of these other downstream kind of things that come off of the petroleum products.

但从集装箱运输的角度来看，更大的问题是红海——自2023年12月胡塞武装袭击以来，集装箱船基本上就不再通过红海了。

But the bigger story from container shipping is the Red Sea, which had we have not been using container ships have effectively not been going through the Red Sea since December 2023 with the Houthi attacks, these terrorist attacks in the Red Sea.

到了二月，三家航运公司刚刚开始恢复经由苏伊士运河的服务，但随即又立即撤出了，因为风险太高。

And in February, the carriers, three of them had just started to return service via the Suez Canal, and they immediately pulled out, for too much.

风险实在太大了。

It was too risky.

所以，真正的影响是，原本情况正要大幅好转。

So that actually, the big impact here is it was about to get a lot better.

供应链本即将恢复正常，但现在我们又不得不绕行非洲南端。

Like, supply chains were about to sort of normalize, and now we've gone back to going around the tip of Africa.

所以现在这使得海运价格上升了大约50%。

So that's gonna add right right now, it's increased the price of ocean freight about 50%.

而且绕行路线的运输时间要长得多。

So and that's a much longer transit time going around.

所以我们看到油价上涨，这意味着为所有这些船舶、飞机航母——基本上所有运输工具——加油的成本都更高了。

So we've got oil prices going up, which means that it's more expensive to fuel all of these vessels and all of these, aircraft carriers, basically anything that carries anything.

而且现在几乎不可能有任何船只通过霍尔木兹海峡。

We've got the fact that it's almost impossible for any of these ships to go through the Strait Of Hormuz.

你现在还指出，红海也出现了这些问题。

And now you're also pointing out that we've got these issues at the Red Sea.

所以这里存在多个不同的问题。

So multiple different issues here.

与历史上其他时期相比，现在从事供应链业务有多困难？

How difficult is it right now to be in the supply chain business compared to other times in history?

我认为，比如新冠疫情就是一个典型的供应链危机例子。

I think, for example, maybe COVID as an example, where it was obviously like a real supply chain problem.

那现在情况有多糟？

Like, how bad is it out there?

我认为这显然取决于你具体想做什么。

I I think it obviously depends very much on what you're trying to do.

比如，如果你要运货到中东，那简直是灾难。

Like, if you're trying to ship to the Middle East, it's a disaster.

我的意思是，你根本进不了波斯湾。

I mean, you can't get into the Persian Gulf.

现在没有集装箱船通过那里。

There's no container ships going through.

如果我说得没错，石油和天然气方面，我们昨天只看到三艘船出港。

If you like, I think oil and gas, I think we're seeing about three ships went out yesterday.

通常情况下，这个数字超过一百艘。

Normally, it's over a 100.

所以这条供应链的运力大幅下降。

So it's a huge reduction in in that supply chain.

如果从全球范围来看，这里的海洋货运影响其实规模很小。

If you're on a global basis, like, the ocean freight story here is a pretty small scale.

如果新冠疫情是十分中的八分，红海的中断是六分，那么霍尔木兹海峡的集装箱航运问题只有三分左右。

If COVID was at eight out of 10 and the Red Sea disruption has been, like, a six out of 10, this container shipping story of the Strait Of Hormuz is only, like, a three.

这是因为，是的。

It's it's because yes.

我并不是说对全球经济来说只有三分。

And I was I'm not saying it's only three for the global economy.

我只是特指集装箱航运这一块。

I just mean for container shipping specifically.

对全球经济而言，如果短期内无法解决，这可能是我们这一代人遇到的最糟糕的情况，因为能源是所有事物的上游，更重要的是粮食和该地区生产的化肥，而现在正是播种季节。

For the global economy, this is probably the worst thing in in our lifetime if they can't get it resolved soon because how energy is upstream of everything and more importantly, food, the the fertilizer production coming of that region, and it's planting season.

所以这对全球农业供应链来说，时机非常糟糕。

So it's a very bad timing for the world's agricultural supply chains.

但从集装箱航运的角度来看，波斯湾是个死胡同。

But it's the Persian Gulf from a container shipping standpoint is a cul de sac.

除非你要送货到那里，否则没必要进去。

You don't need to go in there unless you're delivering to there.

是的。

Yep.

我们关注的统计数据是，目前有0.6%的全球集装箱船被困在海峡内。

And there's only the the stat that we're looking at is 0.6% of the world's container ships are currently stuck inside the Strait.

所以这可以说是个可以忽略不计的数字。

So it's not a you know, it's kind of a rounding error.

对集装箱运输来说，这算不上大事。

It's not a big deal for container shipping.

现在，用于船舶动力的海洋船用燃油价格已经上涨了87%。

Now fuel prices have gone up 87% for ocean bunker fuel, the the fuel that powers the ship.

所以我认为这更像一个能源问题，而不是集装箱运输问题。

So that's you know, there's definitely it's an energy story is what I would say rather than a container shipping story.

最终，这个能源问题会影响到你们这样的人。

Ultimately, that energy story is going to affect people like you.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，如果加注船舶或飞机的燃料成本更高了，这难道不会也影响到你吗？还是说影响较小？

I mean, if it's more expensive to get the fuel to put the fuel in the ship or to put the fuel in the aircraft to go somewhere, is that not also an issue on your end, or is it less of an issue?

是的。

Yeah.

确实如此。

It is.

确实如此。

It is.

正如我所说，油价已经上涨了50%以上。美国联合航空公司的首席执行官上周或上周末表示，他们预计此次航油价格上涨将给他们带来110亿美元的成本压力。

As I said, the prices have gone above 50%, and the United Airlines CEO said earlier this week or end of last week, he said that this is their model was they're modeling this this the the jet fuel price increases is gonna cost them $11,000,000,000.

哇。

Wow.

他还说，即使在联合航空有史以来利润最高的年份，他们的利润也只有50亿美元。

And he said that in their best year ever at United, they made 5,000,000,000 in profit.

哇。

Wow.

这表明他们的模型基本上认为，为了支付燃油成本，机票价格必须上涨30%。

Which tells you they're gonna the model basically says they have to increase plane ticket prices by 30% to just to pay the fuel.

所以，让你了解一下，这如何影响到其他所有领域，而这确实关乎一切。

So just to give you a sense of, like, how this is upstream of everything else, and that's really everything.

我的意思是，我们平时不会想到，但塑料几乎全部由石油产品制成，还有很大比例的药品和医疗用品、化妆品、消费品、油漆等等。

I mean, there's we don't think about it, but plastic is all made from petroleum products, like, huge percent of pharmaceuticals and health care, cosmetics, consumer goods, paint.

你知道的。

You know?

它无处不在。

It's in everything.

美国相对其他市场会好一些，因为我们自己能保障能源和燃料的供应。

And The US will be okay relative to other markets because we're self sufficient in energy and fuel.

你会看到很多市场、很多国家，问题根本不是价格。

You're gonna see a lot of markets, a lot of countries where they it's not about prices.

这简直是真正的短缺。

It's like actual shortages.

比如，你花多少钱都买不到东西。

Like, you can't get stuff at any price.

当然，到那时价格会飙升，但这才是我认为当前经济面临的真正危险。

And, yeah, of course, the price will go parabolic at that point, but that's that's that's the real danger that I think the economy is facing right now.

希望如此，我们往往理所当然地认为供应链和现代文明都是建立在和平共处的基础之上，一旦打破这种平衡，情况可能会变得非常糟糕。

And, hopefully, I mean, we take it for granted that supply chains and modern civilization actually just like it's all built on a foundation of kind of peaceful coexistence here that if you upset that apple cart, it can get really bad.

是的。

Yeah.

让我们感受一下这如何影响到消费者，因为目前我们所看到的，如果你在加油站加油，你已经立刻感受到了这种影响。

Give us a sense of how this could trickle down to the consumer because it seems like all that we're really seeing right now, if you're paying for for gas at the pump, you're immediately feeling this right now.

你已经直接看到了这对你的生活造成了什么影响。

You're immediately seeing how this is impacting your life.

但我认为可能更少人理解的是，供应链中断也可能以某种方式影响你的生活。

But I think the thing that is probably less understood is how the disruptions in the supply chain could also affect your life in some way.

这可能会导致我不知道的哪些商品价格上涨。

It could translate to price increases in I don't know what.

所以给我们描绘一下这对消费者意味着什么。

So paint us a picture of how this could translate for consumers.

我们刚刚躲过一劫的是西海岸的情况。

The one that we narrowly avoided is on the West Coast.

加利福尼亚关闭了全部或大部分炼油厂，以推动绿色转型。

So California shut down all or most of its refineries in a in a effort to go green.

但当然，加利福尼亚仍然消耗大量石油、石油制品、汽油等等。

But, of course, we still we still consume a lot of oil in California, lot of oil based petroleum, gasoline, whatever.

因此，由于我们关闭了加利福尼亚的炼油厂，我们一直在从韩国和其他亚洲市场进口精炼石油产品。

And and so we've been importing refined oil refined petroleum from Korea and other Asian markets because we shut down the refineries in California.

嗯。

Mhmm.

这些市场现在缺乏原油进行加工，因为它们的原油来自中东。

Well, those markets are now out of crude to process because they're getting their crude from The Middle East.

因此，总统上周不得不暂时豁免并暂停了琼斯法案的一项规定。

And so there the the president had to, last week, suspend waive at a temporary provision, but waived the Jones Act.

琼斯法案正是导致他们必须从亚洲进口精炼石油的原因——这是一项百年法律，规定如果想通过船舶从德克萨斯州运输石油到加利福尼亚州，必须使用美国制造的油轮，并配备美国船员，即美国公民。但这样的油轮根本不存在。

And the Jones Act is what prevents the reason that they have to get refined petroleum from Asia is because under the Jones Act, which is a 100 year old law, if you wanna move oil by ship from Texas to California, it has to be on a US made tanker, with a US crew, citizen American citizens as the crew, and those don't exist.

所以，美国国内无法实现加利福尼亚与德克萨斯能源市场的连接。

So it's not possible for American that we don't have California is not connected to the Texas energy market.

他们实际这么做的目的并不是为了拯救加利福尼亚，而是为了拯救阿拉斯加，因为安克雷奇是世界上最大的货运机场之一。

And they actually did it not to save California, but to save Alaska because Anchorage is the world's I said Dubai is the biggest cargo airport.

安克雷奇和迪拜一样重要。

Dubai Anchorage is right up there.

这是一个极其重要的航空货运枢纽，因为满载货物的波音747无法从亚洲直飞美国而无需中途加油。

It's it's a massively important air cargo market because you can't fly a a a seven forty seven loaded with cargo, can't make it from Asia to The United States without refueling.

所有航班都必须在安克雷奇加油。

They all stop in Anchorage to refuel.

因此，如果当时没有豁免琼斯法案，安克雷奇将面临没有航空燃油的危机。

And so Anchorage isn't and if they they were about to not have any jet fuel if they hadn't waived this the Jones Act.

所以这些事情我们通常都习以为常了。

So there's these things that are you know, we just kinda take for granted.

是的。

Yeah.

当然，你可以在机场加到航空燃油，但现在这一切都紧密相连。

Of course, you can get jet fuel at the airport, but it's very interconnected now.

其实，我来之前本该查一下的。

And, actually, I should've looked this up before I came on.

我不知道他们实际能暂停《琼斯法案》多久，但这并不是永久性的。

I don't know how long they actually can suspend the Jones Act for, but it's not permanent.

这是一项国会法案。

The it's an act of congress.

总统有一些紧急权力，但这并不是对该法案的永久豁免。

The president has some emergency powers, but it's not a permanent waiver of that.

所以我们拭目以待吧。

So we'll see how that plays out.

当我想到现在的全球供应链时，感觉我们经历了巨大的冲击。

When when I think about the global supply chain at this point, it feels like we've had these immense shocks.

我的意思是，首先是新冠疫情，突然间所有人都意识到，好吧。

I mean, first, it was COVID, and suddenly everyone realized, okay.

供应链很重要。

Supply chains matter.

我认为，正是在那时，你真正崭露头角，因为每个人都惊呼：天哪。

I think that's when you became, honestly, you really burst into the scene in that moment because everyone was like, oh my gosh.

我们需要理解这些东西。

We need to understand this stuff.

接着，我们显然看到了中东发生的事情，以及它如何扰乱了红海，正如你提到的，这一点却较少被讨论。

Then we see, obviously, what what's happened in The Middle East and what and how it's disrupted the Red Sea, as you mentioned, something that's less talked about.

还有关税对供应链造成的影响。

Also tariffs and what that has done to the supply chain.

而现在，我们又面临伊朗的战争。

And now here we are again with this war in Iran.

我想问你的是，你认为这是一次暂时性的冲击，我们会在短期内或中期内度过，还是供应链已经变得结构性地更困难了？

I guess my my question to you, do you think that this is a temporary shock that we will kind of move through over the maybe short to medium term, or have supply chains just structurally become more difficult?

这种问题会成为常态吗？

Is this kind of issue something that's here to stay?

这是个很好的问题。

It's a great question.

我希望这只是一时的，但我们也得做好不是这样的准备。

I think there's a there's a let's hope that it's temporary.

你制定计划时，却仿佛它不会是暂时的。

You had a plan as if it's not, though.

我们真的把这一切看得太理所当然了。

And there there we we really take this for granted.

我的意思是，过去并不是这样的。

I mean, it didn't used to be like this.

过去的情况甚至更糟。

It used to be worse.

二战之前，如果你想进行任何贸易，各国基本上只和自己的殖民地做买卖。你还记得，在大英帝国以及更早的几个世纪里，如果你想做生意，就得在商船上装满大炮。

Before World War two, if you wanted to do trade anywhere, you sort of countries just traded with their own colonies and, like, you most remember, like, you know, before during the British Empire and and and prior centuries prior, like, if you wanted to do trades, you put a bunch of cannons on your on your merchant.

是的。

Yep.

然后你环游世界，随时准备炮击任何人。

And you sail around the world ready to blast anybody.

你知道的。

You know?

那会儿情况要糟糕得多。

And it was, like, way worse.

二战后，我们建立了如今的世界秩序，美国海军基本上提供了保护和航行自由，说：嘿。

And we got to the world order that we have today after World War two with the US Navy basically providing protection and freedom of navigation and saying, hey.

不行。

No.

你知道，任何人都可以自由航行到任何地方。

You know, you can anyone can sail anywhere.

美国海军会保护海上航线，你可以开放贸易。

US Navy will protect the sea lanes, and you could, you know, open up trade.

所以这正是一个根本性的挑战，先是红海，现在是波斯湾，因为这挑战了全球秩序。

And and so that's why this is so such a fundamental challenge, the Red Sea first, and now and now the Persian Gulf, because it's a challenge to that global order.

美国海军有能力打通霍尔木兹海峡吗？

It's like, is the US Navy capable of opening the Strait Of Hormuz?

我们已经看到，他们无法打通红海。

And we we've already seen they're not capable of opening the Red Sea.

他们试过了。

They tried.

这支航母特遣队和也门的一小群叛军对抗，结果叛军获胜，并持续迫使集装箱船绕道航行。

This carrier task force and the Yemen you know, small group of rebels in Yemen prevailed and have continued to to made it so that the containerships have to go around.

这对全球化、我们经济的结构以及企业依赖的全球供应链都是一个巨大问题，我认为人们需要开始考虑B计划——建立更多区域性的供应链，以降低风险。

So it's it's a massive question for globalization, way that our economies are structured, our companies are all built around these globalized supply chains, and I think people need to start thinking about plan b of more regional supply chains that are not as exposed.

各国需要认真思考自己的战略伙伴是谁。

Countries need to think hard about their who their strategic partners are.

更多国家将加强军备，不得不投资建设自己的海军。

More countries are gonna arm up and create you know, have to invest in their own navies.

可能从日本开始看到这种趋势。

Probably see this from Japan.

我应该说，越来越多的欧洲国家开始首次加强军事力量，认为不能再仅仅依赖美国来保护我们。

Starting to see a lot of European companies start to European countries, I should say, start to build up military force for the first time, saying maybe we can't count on just America to defend us.

人们逐渐意识到，世界上坏人很多，不能坐等一切安然无恙。

And and there's a realize there's lot of bad guys in the world, and you can't just sit around and expect that everything's gonna be fine.

这是一个非常有趣的观点。

It's a really interesting point.

我想知道，作为一家恰好深耕这一领域的全球最大公司之一的CEO，这对您意味着什么？

I guess I'm wondering, as the CEO of one of the biggest companies that that works exactly in this space, what does that mean for you?

在无法再将全球化和自由无阻的贸易视为理所当然的世界里，您该如何调整战略？您必须开始思考地缘政治、暴力和战争？

Like, how do you change your strategy in a world where you can't take globalization and free and unfettered trade for granted, and you do have to start thinking about geopolitics, about violence, about war?

我的意思是，如果我们谈论的是舰船上的大炮，而您说欧洲需要像第一次世界大战或第二次世界大战之前那样，重新思考这个问题。

I mean, if we're talking about cannons on ships and you're saying that Europe needs to think about that again for the first time since before the war, for before the the World War one or World War two.

那对你来说意味着什么？

Like, what does that mean for you?

是的。

Yeah.

你知道吗？

You know what?

而且实际上，经过红海的那条航线，过去几年提供服务的海洋运输公司是CMA，因为法国海军一直在为法国的集装箱航运公司提供护航。

And and it it it actually going through the Red Sea, like, one ocean carrier that was providing service last couple years was CMA because the French Navy was providing escorts to their to the French container shipping line.

所以你已经开始看到一点点这种变化了。

So you're starting you are starting to see a little bit of that.

哇。

Wow.

是的。

Yes.

当然，这并不好。

Of course, it's not good.

我们希望生活在一个开放自由贸易的世界里。

Like, we wanna live in a world of open free trade.

我们的使命是让全球贸易对每个人来说都更简单，而这些事情让贸易变得更困难。

Like, our mission is to make global trade easy for everybody, so these things make it harder.

我们发现，而且你希望进入一个增长中的市场。

We found and and you wanna be in a growing market.

每个创业者都希望进入一个增长中的市场。

Like, every entrepreneur wants to be in a growing market.

我们常说，我们常常想，哦，等等。

You we like to say you know, we like to think, like, oh, wait.

我会说，我们的市场太大了。

I'll say the mark our market is so big.

确实如此。

It is.

它非常广阔。

It's it's vast.

因此，即使市场萎缩，Flexport 依然可以成功。

And so Flexport can be successful even if the market shrinks.

但我们已经明白，如果市场在增长，而且你不必去竞争，那情况要好得多。

But we've already learned, like, man, it's way better if your market's growing, and you don't have to fight.

没必要为了每一个增量客户都打得你死我活。

It doesn't have to be such a knife fight for every, you know, incremental customer.

所以，这对生意来说确实不好。

So, yeah, it's bad for business.

我们已经找到了脱颖而出的方法。

We have found ways to stand out.

你知道，技术在这个拼图中变得至关重要，我们的可视化技术比以往任何时候都更重要，嗯。

You know, and technology becomes a big piece of this puzzle of, like, our visibility tech has been more important than ever Mhmm.

帮助人们弄清楚我的货物在哪里、什么时候到达、哪些集装箱船需要改道、这些集装箱在哪些地方被卸下。

For helping people figure out where's my stuff, when is it gonna arrive, what container ships are having to be rerouted, where are these containers getting dropped.

像 Flexport 提供的一些核心价值主张，在这种环境下实际上变得更加重要和独特。

Like, some of the core value props that Flexport offers are, like, actually more valuable and more differentiated in that environment.

关税方面也是如此。

Same on the tariff front.

我们开发了所有这些技术，帮助公司管理关税并计算他们欠多少。

Like, we built all this tech to help companies manage their tariffs and figure out how much do they owe.

因为以前计算起来很简单，但现在你需要知道这个集装箱是在哪一天清关的。

Because it used to be simple to calculate, but now you need to know on what date did this cast this this container clear customs.

你知道，某一天的关税税率和一周前或一周后可能完全不同。

You know, the tariff rate on one day is way different than it was a week earlier or a week later.

我还能拿到多少退款？在最高法院推翻了这些关税之后，我该如何帮助人们申请关税退款？

And at what refund am I gonna get, and how do I help people get refunds from tariffs now that the Supreme Court kinda overturned the tariffs?

因此，我们看到，在这种波动中，我们确实可以通过技术脱颖而出，并将其转化为我们的优势。

So we've seen we've seen that we can definitely stand out with tech in this volatility and and turn it to our advantage.

不过，你知道，我更希望有一个增长的市场，一切都恰到好处。

That said, like, you know, I'd much rather have a growing market where everything's Goldilocks.

这非常有趣。

It's very interesting.

好的。

Okay.

瑞安·彼得森，Flexport的首席执行官。

Ryan Petersen, CEO of Flexport.

瑞安，非常感谢。

Ryan, really appreciate it.

谢谢。

Thank you.

是的。

Yeah.

我的荣幸。

My pleasure.

广告后，SaaSpocalypse第二轮冲击市场。

After the break, round two of the SaaSpocalypse hits the markets.

如需获取更多市场洞察，欢迎订阅我的每周通讯《Simply Put》，网址为 simplyput.profgmedia.com。

And for even more markets insights, you can subscribe to my weekly newsletter, Simply Put, at simplyput.profgmedia.com.

从前有一个阴郁的日子，鲍勃的冰淇淋车看起来灰暗无光。

Once upon a dismal day, Bob's ice cream van looked gloomy and gray.

尽管他志向远大，但他的社交媒体却缺乏创意眼光。

Although he had big ambitions, his socials lacked creative vision.

哦，太糟糕了。

Oh, that bad.

也许是因为吸血鬼的食欲？

Maybe vampered appetite?

我有个主意。

I have an idea.

鲍勃开始使用Canva，并迅速行动起来。

Bob launched Canva and got into gear.

创建一个视频，在

Create a video in

吸血鬼主题下制作一个有趣的中小企业广告。

the vampire theme and make it the funny SME.

它火了。

It went viral.

鲍勃的生意迎来了复兴。

Bob's business, a revival.

现在想象一下，当你在Canva.com上发挥想象力时，你的梦想会变成什么样子。

Now imagine what your dreams can become when you put imagination Imagine to work at canva.com.

你好。

Hi.

我是布琳·布朗。

I'm Brene Brown.

我是亚当·格兰特。

And I'm Adam Grant.

我们在这里邀请你来探索好奇心商店。

And we're here to invite you to the Curiosity Shop.

这是一个倾听、好奇、思考、感受和质疑的播客。

A podcast that's a place for listening, wondering, thinking, feeling, and questioning.

这会很有趣。

It's gonna be fun.

我们很少意见一致。

We rarely agree.

但我们几乎从不争吵，而且总是在学习。

But we almost never disagree, and we're always learning.

没错。

That's true.

你可以在YouTube上订阅《好奇心商店》，或在你最喜欢的播客应用中关注我们，每周四自动接收新 episodes。

You can subscribe to the Curiosity Shop on YouTube or follow in your favorite podcast app to automatically receive new episodes every Thursday.

当你想到21世纪最有影响力的美国政治家时，你可能会想到一个男人。

When you think of the most influential American politician of the twenty first century, you probably think of a man.

但有一位女性可能也符合这个描述。

But there's one woman who might fit the bill.

她从未想过自己会进入政界，但却打破了她所说的‘大理石天花板’。

She never thought she'd be in politics, but went on to break what she calls the marble ceiling.

然后他们会说，那你们为什么不列个单子，把女性想要的东西都写下来，我们来实现？

Then they'd say, well, why don't you all just make a list of things that the women want and we'll do those?

什么？

What?

这可是二十一世纪啊。

This is in this century.

真的吗？

Really?

所以这个大理石天花板，不是玻璃天花板，而是大理石天花板。

So the marble ceiling, it's not a glass ceiling, it's a marble ceiling.

他们早就排好了顺序，你先上，我接着上，我再接着上。

And they all had it lined up that you go next and I'll go next and I'll go next.

我们就说，你知道吗？

And we're like, well, you know what?

我们已经等了两百多年，就为了能排上队。

We've been waiting over two hundred years for breaking in line.

南希·佩洛西，这位长期担任众议院民主党议长的人，正在奥斯汀的西南偏南大会上现场直播。

Nancy Pelosi, the longtime Democratic Speaker of the House, live on stage at South by Southwest in Austin.

《今日解析》，工作日每日更新，现在周六也更新了。

Today Explained, every weekday, and now on Saturdays too.

我们继续回到《G教授的市场》。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

Anthropic 再次搅动了市场。

Anthropic is yet again moving markets.

周一晚上，该公司发布了新的 Claude Cowork 功能，该功能允许其人工智能模型自主访问应用程序、浏览网页和编辑文件。

On Monday night, the company released a new Claude Cowork feature, which allows its AI model to autonomously access apps, navigate browsers, and edit files.

这一消息立即引发了市场的恐慌。

This news immediately spooked the markets.

微软、Salesforce 和 Palantir 等主要软件公司当天股价均收跌。

Major software companies like Microsoft, Salesforce, and Palantir all ended the day in the red.

整体来看，IGV 软件ETF收盘下跌了约4%。

As a whole, the IGV software ETF closed down roughly 4%.

现在它的股价比去年秋天的高点下跌了超过30%。

It's now off more than 30% from its peak last fall.

今天我们邀请到D公司科技研究主管吉尔·卢里亚，来为我们解析软件行业正在发生的变化。

Here to break down what is happening in software, we are speaking with Gil Luria, head of technology research at D.

A。

A.

戴维森。

Davidson.

吉尔，这可以说是SaaSpocalypse第二季了，虽然可能没有第一季那么激烈，但值得注意的是，我们再次看到同一公司推出了一款新的AI工具。

Gil, this is the SaaSpocalypse part two, probably less intense than the first one, but it is striking that we're seeing the same thing, a new AI tool released by the same company.

而且，投资者对此再次感到非常担忧。

And, again, investors are very concerned about this.

你如何看待Anthropic推出的这款新工具？你是否也像其他投资者那样感到担忧？

What do you make of the new tool from Anthropic, and are you as concerned as other investors appear to be?

因此，AI使用计算机实际上是一个重要的里程碑。

So computer use by AI is actually a really big milestone.

因此，这标志着人工智能在工作场所和商业环境中的能力实现了巨大飞跃。

So it is a big leap forward for the capabilities for artificial intelligence within the workplace, within the business context.

而如今，正如过去几个月一直如此，市场将人工智能的利好视为软件的利空。

And these days, as has been the case for the last few months, the market is associating good for AI with bad for software.

在这方面，我们的观点可能有所不同。

That's where we probably diverge in our opinion.

我们确实认为人工智能的这一进展意义重大。

So we do think it's a very big deal for AI.

这对人工智能来说非常有利。

It's very good for AI.

但由此推断这对软件极为不利，可能有些过度了。

But to take from that, that it's really bad for software is probably a little too much.

当然，有些软件公司在这方面特别容易受到影响。

Now mind you, there are software companies that are particularly exposed to this.

UiPath 就是最典型的例子。

UiPath is is the most one.

你可以看到他们的股价今天跌幅最为剧烈，因为UiPath使用的是上一代的自动化计算机技术，即机器人流程自动化。

You can see their stock decline the most dramatically today because UiPath has the last generation of automated computer use, which is robotic process automation.

你可以把它想象成Excel中的宏，但适用于你桌面上的任何操作。

Think of it as macros in Excel for anything on your desktop.

这使用的是人工智能出现前的技术。

And that used pre AI technology.

现在，人工智能能够无需你干预就操作你的电脑，这是一个巨大的进步，对这类公司来说是个严重的问题。

So now the fact that AI can do that and use your computer without you interfering is a big leap forward, and it's a really big problem for companies like that.

说这对所有其他软件公司都是大问题，其实又回到了过去三到六个月里围绕软件展开的同一场争论。

To say that it's a big problem for all other software companies goes back to the same debate that's being had for the last three to six months around software.

我们的观点是，软件领域的赢家将继续获胜，而那些容易受到冲击的公司，颠覆的影响总是更大。

And it is our opinion that winners in software will continue to win, and companies that are vulnerable, disruption is always a bigger deal for.

给我们讲讲Anthropic到底发布了什么。

Walk us through what Anthropic has actually released here.

比如，我们最初推出了一系列新工具，像Claude Cowork，那正是第一次引发市场震荡的原因。

Like, we had that first slate of new tools like Claude Cowork, and that was that was what roiled the markets the first time.

现在我们看到了这一新的进展。

And now we're seeing this new development.

那么，他们在这里宣布的内容有什么特别引人注目的地方？它和第一轮有什么不同？

Like, what is so striking about what they have announced here, and how does it differ from the first round?

是的。

Yeah.

所以，计算机使用功能字面意思就是，你现在可以要求一个代理在你的桌面或笔记本电脑上执行以前只有你才能完成的操作。

So computer use is literally what it sounds like, which is to say, you can now ask an agent to do things on your desktop or your laptop that previously only you were able to do.

不仅仅是与单个软件交互或编写一点代码，而是可以点击屏幕上的按钮来启动应用程序、在应用中推进任务、在应用内做出选择、切换到另一个应用程序，并将信息转移到那个应用中。

So not just interact with a single piece of software or write a little bit of code, rather press buttons on your screen to start an application, to make progress in application, to make choices within an application, jump to another application, and move information to that one.

可能性是无限的，因为任何你能在电脑上做的事情，现在都可以让代理替你完成。

So the possibilities are endless because it's really anything that you could do on your computer, you can now ask an agent to do for you.

这比仅仅在应用程序中自动化任务又前进了一大步。

That is a leap forward from just having automated tasks happening in your applications.

例如，现在如果你不在家，但手机上安装了Claude，你就可以通过手机指令你的家用电脑执行任务，因为Claude现在可以控制你的桌面。

For instance, you can now use, if you're away from home, but you have Claude installed on your phone, you could now instruct your home computer to execute tasks from your phone because Claude can now control your desktop.

这确实是人工智能领域的一大飞跃。

That is actually a pretty big leap forward in AI.

而且，我想把这一点放在更大的背景下来看。

And again, I wanna put this in context.

这是通向通用人工智能的一个重要里程碑。

This is a milestone towards AGI.

没错。

Right.

一年前，我们还觉得这件事可能发生，也可能不会发生，而现在它已经实现了。

This is something that a year ago we thought may or may not happen, and now it's happened.

有一件事对我来说还不太清楚，我们之前见过类似的情况，比如最近爆红的AI代理OpenClaw。

One thing that's not totally clear to me, we have seen this before in the form of this AI agent that went viral recently called OpenClaw.

嗯。

Mhmm.

当时让很多人感到非常兴奋。

And it was very exciting to a lot of people.