迈克尔·伯里称市场已见顶——真的吗？

本期节目的赞助商是：经营企业已经够难了，何必再用一堆互不兼容的应用程序来增加难度呢？

Support for this show comes from Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other?

隆重推出 Odoo。

Introducing Odoo.

它是你唯一需要的商业软件。

It's the only business software you'll ever need.

它是一个集所有功能于一体的综合平台，让你的工作更轻松。

It's an all in one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier.

客户关系管理、会计、库存、电子商务等等，一应俱全。

CRM, accounting, inventory, ecommerce, and more.

最棒的是什么？

And the best part?

Odoo 以极低的成本取代多个昂贵的平台。

Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost.

这就是为什么成千上万的企业已经转向使用 Odoo。

That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch.

那你为什么不试试呢？

So why not you?

去odoo.com免费试用Odoo。

Try Odoo for free at odoo.com.

就是odoo.com。

That's odoo.com.

我是Seth Matlins，本周在我的播客《创造或毁灭》中，这是一个商业节目，一个营销节目，也是一个认为这两者从来就是一回事的节目。

I'm Seth Matlins, and this week on my podcast, create or destroy, which is a business show, a marketing show, and a show that argues they've always been the same thing.

我邀请了摩根大通的首席营销官Carla Hassan，聊聊她如何赢得8400万客户的信任，尤其是在她的产品在很多方面都是无形的。

I sit down with JPMorgan Chase CMO, Carla Hassan, to talk about how she builds trust in 84,000,000 customers when amongst other things, her product is in many ways intangible.

结果发现，这需要真正的人际联系和实体分行，全公司的协调一致，以及敢于承认自己搞砸了的勇气。

Turns out it requires real human connection and physical branches, enterprise wide alignment, and the discipline to admit when you've broken it.

在YouTube和你最喜欢的播客平台上，看看《创造或毁灭：重新定义营销》吧。

Check out create or destroy reimagining marketing on YouTube and your favorite podcast

贵。

expensive.

机票、酒店、吃饭。

Flights, hotels, food.

何必呢？

Why bother?

所以我觉得，今年夏天很多人都在四处张望，心里想：唉，我想去度假，但这会不会又贵又糟心？

And so a lot of people, I think, just this summer are kind of looking around and saying, like, ugh, I wanna go on vacation, but also, is this gonna be a really expensive disaster?

本周的《给我解释一下》节目，教你如何充分利用宝贵的年假。

This week on Explain It To Me, how to make the most of that precious PTO.

每周日更新，在您收听播客的任何平台都能找到。

New episodes, Sundays, wherever you get your podcasts.

货币市场疯了。

Money market's mad.

如果金钱是邪恶的，那那座建筑就是地狱。

If money is evil, then that building is hell.

节目继续。

The show goes on.

这节目真该看看。

The show should never watch the show.

节目。

Show.

欢迎来到Prof G Markets。

Welcome to Prof G Markets.

我是Ed Elson。

I'm Ed Elson.

今天是8月6号。

It is August 6.

咱们来看看昨天市场的整体情况。

Let's check-in on yesterday's market vitals.

在连创新高之后，主要指数出现了分化。

The major indices were mixed after a series of highs.

稍后详细说说。

More on that in a second.

布伦特原油价格相对稳定。

Brent crude was relatively stable.

国债收益率持平。

Treasury yields were flat.

最后，谷歌股价下跌近4%，原因是DeepMind的首席科学家离职，其CEO德米斯·哈萨比斯也将卸任。

And finally, Google shares fell nearly 4% on news that DeepMind's chief scientist is leaving and its CEO, Demes Hassabis, is stepping aside.

好的。

Okay.

市场情况怎么样？

What's happening?

标普500指数刚刚又创下了新高。

The S and P 500 just hit another record.

昨天盘中再创新高，此前周二该指数大涨近2%，创下自6月以来的首次收盘新高。

The fresh intraday high yesterday followed Tuesday's performance in which the index rose nearly 2% to its first record close since June.

纳斯达克当天也涨了将近3%，道琼斯指数更是首次突破54,000点大关。

The Nasdaq also gained nearly 3% that day, the Dow crossed 54,000 for the first time.

从市场整体来看，投资者似乎已经摆脱了过去一个月大部分时间里对AI的担忧。

Across the markets, it seems as though investors have shaken off the AI anxieties that have defined much of the past month.

但有人并不买账，那就是迈克尔·伯里。

But someone isn't buying it, and that is Michael Burry.

在周二的一份报告中，这位预测到2008年崩盘的投资者表示，他坚持对英伟达、美光、特斯拉、Palantir以及半导体指数的做空押注。

In a note on Tuesday, the investor who called the 2008 crash said he's sticking with his bets against Nvidia and Micron and Tesla and Palantir and the semiconductor index.

他说，引用原话：“我仍然认为我们有可能接近一个重要的顶部”，并补充说我们可能会看到“1987年式的下跌”。

He said, quote, I continue to believe it is possible we are near a major top, adding that we could see, quote, a 1987 type fall.

现在投资者都在想，到底谁是对的，是空头还是多头。

Now investors are left wondering who's right, the bears or the bulls.

今天我们请到了史蒂夫·艾斯曼来讨论，他是传奇的《大空头》投资者，也是《真实艾斯曼剧本》的主持人。

Here to discuss, we're speaking with Steve Eisman, the legendary Big Short investor and host of The Real Eisman Playbook.

史蒂夫，感谢你来到《Prof G Markets》节目。

Steve, thank you for joining us on Prof G Markets.

你是另一个预测到2008年崩盘的人，也是那部电影里的另一位主角。

You are one of the other guys who called the 2008 crash, one of the other guys in that movie.

这肯定会刻在我们的墓碑上。

Well, it'll be on our tombstones.

这一点毫无疑问。

There's no question about it.

没错。

Exactly.

我的意思是，你现在怎么看这个市场？

I mean, what do you make of this market right now?

因为我以为我们都在担心AI，担心债务，担心对少数AI实验室的依赖，但现在我们却处在历史高位。

Because I thought we were all worried about AI, worried about the debt, worried about the reliance on a handful of AI labs, but we're sitting at record highs.

那市场现在到底在告诉我们什么？

So what is the market actually telling us right now?

第一，美国经济非常强劲。

Number one, The US economy is very strong.

你知道，7月中旬所有银行都发布了财报，信贷数据好得不能再好了。

You know, all the banks reported mid month in July, and the credit statistics were as benign as they possibly could be.

所以整体来看，美国经济并没有信贷问题。

So there's no credit issues in in in The US economy overall.

并购周期很活跃。

It's a strong m and a cycle.

IPO市场也不差，而且毫无疑问，现在的经济仍然是K型分化。

The IPO calendar is not bad, and there's no question there's still a k shaped economy.

但你看维萨和万事达的数据，整体支付量其实相当强劲。

But, you know, if you look at the numbers of Visa and Mastercard, the overall payment volumes are quite robust.

K型经济表现在像宝洁这样的公司，它们的营收没有增长。

Where you do see things like the k shaped economy would be like in a company like Procter and Gamble who has no revenue growth.

但这不是推动经济的主要因素。

But, you know, that's not what's driving the economy.

现在的情况其实都还好。

Right now, you know, things are are fine.

尽管有人叫嚣AI会摧毁地球上所有的工作，但就业数据依然非常强劲。

There's no there's no one you know, despite all the hysteria about AI is going to destroy every single job on planet Earth, the employment numbers are still very, very strong.

我觉得这就是为什么市场一直在上涨，因为一切还算正常。

I think that's why the market keeps going higher because things are just okay.

不过，我确实认为AI的故事已经变得复杂多了。

Now I do think that the AI story has gotten a lot more complicated.

你知道，如果一年前我们坐在这里，你很难找到有人说AI的坏话。

You know, if we if if you and I were sitting here a year ago, you'd be hard pressed to find anyone who had anything negative to say.

也许像加里·马库斯那样的人，他上过我的节目。

You know, maybe someone like Gary Marcus who has has been on my show.

他可能也上过你的节目。

He's probably been on your show as well.

是的。

Yes.

我很喜欢

I love

加里。

Gary.

你知道的，Gary

You know, Gary

Gary有很多话要说，而且都是很好的观点。

Gary has a lot to say, and it's all it's all great.

但去年七月的时候，Gary几乎是地球上唯一对AI持负面看法的人。

But Gary was like the lone you know, July of last year, Gary Marcus was, like, the only person on planet Earth who had anything negative to say about AI.

还有Ed Zitron也是。

You know, you have Ed Zitron as well.

但是，你知道的，如果拿这个跟08年相比，我和迈克尔的观点是一样的，那就是房贷承销标准大幅恶化。

But, you know, if you compare this to o eight so Michael and I both had the same thesis, which was underwriting mortgage underwriting standards have deteriorated dramatically.

而这个观点厉害的地方在于，每个月都有证券化数据出炉，显示出成百上千、甚至数以百亿计的抵押贷款信用质量在下滑。

And then what was good about the thesis was every single month, securitization data came out showing credit quality of hundreds upon and and billions upon billions of mortgages.

所以你能亲眼看到这种恶化趋势，每个月都在发生。

And so you could see you could actually see the deterioration every single month.

你手头有一个非常扎实的数据集，每个月都出来告诉你：你说得对。

You had a you had a a dataset that was incredibly robust that came out every single month and said to you, you're right.

所以你看，这样一来你就有这种正反馈了。

That that so so you had this reinforcement.

你知道，如果你想讲一个关于AI的负面故事，那你可没有证券化数据库能帮你。

You know, if you're gonna construct a negative AI story, well, you don't have a securitization database that's gonna help you.

那负面故事又是什么呢？

So what what's your what's what's the negative stories?

让我告诉你我认为可能成为负面故事的点，但这事还没发生。

So let me tell you what I think is potentially the negative story, but it's not here yet.

让AI的故事变得更复杂的原因是这样的。

So what's made the AI story more complicated is the following.

第一，毫无疑问，这个行业比任何人想象得都要资本密集得多。

Number one, there's no question that the business is much more capital intensive than anybody possibly could have imagined.

所以，像微软、谷歌、亚马逊这些公司，以前现金流像流水一样，现在都变成负的了。

So, you know, companies like Microsoft and Google and Amazon, you know, companies who once threw off cash like it was water have negative cash flow.

是的。

Yeah.

所以这是个很大的变化。

So that's that's a big change.

但这并不意味着这些公司快要出什么大问题。

Now that doesn't mean that the that, you know, these companies are on the verge of anything bad.

只是说明它们的业务模式真的发生了改变。

It just means that the dynamics of their business has have really shifted.

它们在大量投资。

They're investing massively.

至于能不能获得高回报，现在还不好说，但这是个大变化。

Whether they'll get great returns, we don't know yet, but that's one big change.

另一个主要变化是，大语言模型和智能体AI这个领域，主要是Anthropic和OpenAI这几家，好像没什么护城河，因为用户会不断换不同的模型。

And I think the other major change is that the LLM agentic AI business, which is really anthropic and OpenAI and and really just a few other people, doesn't seem to have any moats around it because, you know, people switch from models to models.

现在中国也有开源模型了，价格便宜很多，而且大家好像都在转向这些模型。

And that and now you have the the open end models from China, which are much cheaper and people seem to be switching to.

所以可能会有价格战，也可能不会。

And so maybe there'll be a price war, maybe not.

我觉得潜在的弱点在于，我看到一份报告，基本上说亚马逊、谷歌和微软的AI资本开支中有大约70%是来自OpenAI和Anthropic的。

Where I think the the chink in the armor potentially is I read this report that basically said something like 70% of Amazon and Google's and and Microsoft's AI CapEx businesses are from OpenAI and Anthropic.

所以这就是我在关注的点。

So if this this this is what I'm looking for.

如果因为中国的模型而爆发大规模价格战，OpenAI和Anthropic陷入大麻烦，那会瓦解很多AI交易，因为那样的话OpenAI和Anthropic就不能花那么多钱，也就意味着购买的芯片会减少。

If a massive price war broke out because of the Chinese models and OpenAI and Anthropic got in big trouble, that would unwind a lot of the of the AI trade because then OpenAI and Anthropic would not be able to spend as much, which would mean that the fewer chips would be bought.

你知道，剩下的你就可以自己推断了。

I mean, you could figure out the rest.

但在那发生之前，这些公司还是在大手大脚花钱，就像流水一样。

But until that happens, you know, these companies are keep spending money like it's water.

所以，你知道，英伟达大概在8月26号发财报。

So, you know, Nvidia is gonna report on, I think, August 26.

它必须有一个好的季度。

I mean, it has to have a good quarter.

亚马逊今年在资本开支上要花2250亿美元，它怎么可能没有一个好的季度呢？

How could how could it not have a good quarter when Amazon is spending $225,000,000,000 this year on CapEx?

所以在看到OpenAI和Anthropic真正出现疲软之前，我不站在Burry那边。

So until we see real weakness, I think, out of OpenAI and Anthropic, I'm not on Burry's side.

嗯，这很有意思，因为你刚才提到，我们看到更多数据显示大科技公司对OpenAI和Anthropic的依赖程度。

Well, this is very interesting because as you mentioned, we're seeing more numbers on the reliance on OpenAI and Anthropic, at least among the big tech companies.

就在今天，彭博社的分析报告指出，微软70%的AI收入来自OpenAI，而微软当然也投资了这家公司。

Just today, Bloomberg reporting, in their own analysis that 70% of Microsoft's AI revenue is coming from OpenAI, a company which, of course, Microsoft had invested in.

所以我觉得可以这么说，微软把钱投给OpenAI，然后这些钱又以AI收入的形式流回微软，而这几乎占了他们整个AI业务的绝大部分。

So I I think it's a fair thing to say that Microsoft is investing money in OpenAI, and the money is coming back to them in the form of their AI revenue, which literally is most of their entire AI business.

你提到了一个很重要的点。

You brought up a a a a important point.

你知道，如果出现价格战，或者OpenAI和Anthropic出了什么问题，这两家都在亏损数十亿美元，那整个链条就会崩掉。

You know, if we see a price war come into play, if anything goes wrong for OpenAI and Anthropic, both of whom are losing billions of dollars, then the whole thing unwinds.

说亏损数十亿都是轻的了。

Losing billions is is a euphemism.

要是他们只是亏几十亿就好了。

If only they were just losing billions.

对。

Right.

亏的比那多得多。

Losing a lot more than that.

所以，我的问题是，这种情况发生的可能性有多大？

So, I mean, the question to me is, how likely is that if?

在我看来，目前可能性相当大。

To me, it's quite likely at this point.

我觉得各种迹象都在往那个方向发展。

To me, it seems as though the signs are going in that direction.

至少，我认为这种可能性应该在一定程度上被市场定价了。

And at the very least, I would expect the likelihood of that if to be priced into some extent.

但当我看到标普指数在公认的高位交易时——

But when I see the S and P trading at recognized

市场可不是那样运作的。

Markets don't work that way.

好的。

Okay.

我是说，你知道，新闻上还是说经济还不错。

I mean, you know, the the the news is still the economy is still good.

如果发生价格战，市场可能得被一根大棒狠狠敲一下，因为牛市已经持续这么久了，每个人都逢跌就买。

If there is a price war, the market's gonna kinda have to have have it hit head over the head by a two by four because this it's been a bull market for so long, and everybody just buys every dip.

换句话说，现在市场是纯粹被动反应，而不是主动预测可能发生什么。

In other words, it's purely reactive at this moment versus proactive in predicting what might happen.

它根本不会主动。

It's not gonna be proactive at all.

你知道，迈克尔试图预测。

You know, Michael is trying to anticipate.

老天保佑。

God bless.

他这时候比我更有胆量，因为我觉得对我来说，现在预测还为时过早。

He's got more guts at this point than me because I I just think it's for me, it's premature.

我在等它真的发生。

I'm waiting if it does happen.

我是说，你觉得可能性很大，我也不会完全反对，但也许得等到一年以后。

And, I mean, I mean, you think it's very likely, and and I wouldn't necessarily disagree, but it could be a year from now.

所以这就是关键所在。

So that that's the thing.

我是说，如果是两个月后发生，那又是另一回事了。

I mean, if it's a if it's two months from now, that's one thing.

如果是一年后，那这些公司还是会像以前一样大手大脚地花钱，情况还是一样。

If it's a year from now, then all these companies are gonna be spending money like they'd like they've been spending money, and it's the same story.

所以假设 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 真的出了麻烦，关键问题、真正的问题是：什么时候？

So assuming that Anthropic and OpenAI do get into trouble, the the operative question, the real question is when?

还要等多久？

How long is it gonna take?

我觉得没人能回答这个问题，我肯定没有答案，我想别人现在也没有答案。

And and I don't think anybody I I certainly don't have an answer to that question, and I don't think anybody else has an answer to that question at this point.

你认为华尔街的其他投资者，或者说整个市场，在多大程度上在问这个问题？

To what extent do you think that other investors on Wall Street to what extent do you think the market is asking the question?

我同意你的看法，没有人有答案。

Agree with you that no one has an answer.

我没有答案。

I don't have an answer.

你也没有答案。

You don't have an answer.

但你和我至少都在问这个问题，这给整个生态系统带来了一点犹豫感，或者说至少是焦虑感。

But you and I seem to be asking that question at the very least, which is instilling a little bit of a sense of hesitancy or at least anxiety around the whole ecosystem.

你觉得人们是在问这个问题，还是只是因为数字太令人兴奋了？

Do you think that people are asking the question, or is it the numbers are just too exciting?

没人在乎。

No one cares.

我真希望我能回答这个问题。

Wish I could answer that question.

要是能把所有投资者都叫到一个房间里，做点集体心理疏导，那我们就可能有答案了。

It'd be nice if we could all get all the investors in the room and do a little group therapy, and then we could have an answer.

做个调查呗。

Take a survey.

但除此之外，说实话，我也不知道。

But otherwise, you know, I don't know.

我真的就是不知道。

I've absolute I just don't know.

我的意思是，你知道，有件事我甚至有点意外，就是我以为当十年期国债收益率超过4.5%的时候，那可能是个分界线。

I mean, you know, I mean, one thing that I'm even a little surprised about is the fact I thought that when the ten year climbed above four and a half percent, that was that could be a demarcation line.

但事实并非如此。你知道，如果市场会因为利率而出现回调，我觉得十年期国债收益率可能得涨到5%以上。

And it it hasn't you know, if if if the market's gonna get a correction because of rates, I think the ten year's gotta go probably above five.

所以这绝对是个牛市。

So it's definitely a bull market.

你知道，市场会经历一些震荡。

You know, things get shaken off.

说实话，我挺意外的。我之前以为Meta上周的数据简直糟透了，非常糟糕。

I mean, I'm surprised by the fact that I thought Meta's numbers last week were hellacious, just awful.

结果股价也就跌了一天，然后又涨回去了。

And the stock has, you know, went down for one day and then climbed back up.

你当时最担心的是他们数据的哪一部分？是支出方面吗？

Which part of their numbers were you most concerned about, the spending?

有两块。

Two sets.

其中一个是营收增长28%，这还不错，但费用增长了55%，自由现金流只有7.85亿美元。对。

So one was 28% revenue growth, which is fine, 55% expense growth, and then 785,000,000 in free cash flow Yeah.

这基本上等于没有。

Which is basically nothing.

你知道的，就像我之前说的那家公司，以前现金流充沛得像流水一样，现在却没有任何自由现金流。

You know, a company like I like I was describing before that used to throw off cash like it was water now has no free cash flow.

一点都没有。

None.

还有另一件事，当你深入看这些数字的时候，挺有意思的，就是芯片的折旧开始带来压力了。

And and the other thing, you know, when you dig into the numbers, which was interesting, is the depreciation of the chips is starting to hurt.

我记得这个季度大概是60亿，而三个月前可能才40亿。

I I think it was something like 6,000,000,000 in the quarter, up from, like, 4,000,000,000 maybe three months ago.

我可能记得不太准，但差不了太多。

I I could be off, but not provide that much.

但现在开始发生的是，所有那些资本支出，之前都记在资产负债表上，现在开始慢慢反映到损益表里，这会在未来几年对他们造成负担。

But what's starting to happen is all that CapEx which went on the balance sheet is now starting to roll through the income statement, and that's gonna be a weight on them for years.

如果你要想想接下来几个月会怎么发展，我是说，伯里说这就是顶部了。

If you had to think about how this will play out over the next several months or so, I mean, Burry is saying this is the top.

或者他说这有可能是顶部。

Or he's saying it's possible that this is the top.

我不知道他怎么敢这么说。

I don't I don't know how he could say that.

我是说，你可以这么说，但我真不知道你怎么能这么说。

I mean I mean, you could say it, but I don't I don't really know how you could say it.

我的意思是，这不像次贷危机那样，那时候我们有证券化数据，他和我都能看到那些数据。

I mean, there's no it's again, it's not like subprime where we had the securitization data where where he and I both had this came securitization data.

他并没有掌握你我都没有的数据点。

There's no he doesn't have a data point that you and I don't have.

所以如果他有证据表明OpenAI和中国模型之间爆发了价格战，那我可能会说，好吧。

So if he had some evidence that that there was a price war breaking out on between and OpenAI and the Chinese models, I'd say, okay.

你知道，那确实是个非常重要的数据点，他说的有道理。

You know, he's that that's that's a very important data point, he's got a point.

但除此之外，我觉得他，恕我直言，他只是随便猜猜，然后说，好吧。

But otherwise, I just think he's you know, with all due respect to him, don't think he's just putting a finger in the air and saying, okay.

试试看吧。

Let's give it a shot.

也许他最后会是对的，但我觉得他没有什么可以拿出来说的实际数据。

And maybe he'll be right, but but I does he I don't think he has any data that he could point to.

你看。

I mean, look.

就像我说的，银行信贷质量很好。

Like like I said, bank credit quality was great.

就业数据也非常强劲。

Employment data is very strong.

你知道，现在你能指出哪个数据点能说明就是这个时候了吗？

You know, what what data point can you point to right now that would say this is it?

如果你要判断市场见顶，你想看到什么？

What would you want to see if you were to call a top in that regard?

你需要看到什么信号？

What would you be needing to see?

你之前提到了一些定价数据。

You hinted at it with some of the pricing data.

对。

Yeah.

再说一次，我需要看到价格战。

Again, I need a price war.

我需要在大语言模型领域来一场价格战。

I need a price war in in the LLM world.

在出现这种情况之前，它会一直上涨。

And until we don't get until we have that, it keeps going up.

在那之前，我觉得事情会继续像现在这样发展。

Until we have that, things will continue to, I think, go on kind of the way they have.

好的。

Alright.

史蒂夫·艾斯曼，The Real Eisman Playbook 的主持人。

Steve Eisman, host of The Real Eisman Playbook.

史蒂夫，我们一直很欣赏你的见解。

Steve, we always appreciate your perspective.

非常感谢。

Thank you so much.

很高兴再次见到你。

It was a pleasure to see you again.

广告之后，我们来聊聊关税和伊朗的最新情况。

After the break, an update on tariffs and Iran.

想获取更多市场洞察，可以订阅我的每周通讯《简单说》，网址是simplyput.profgmedia.com。

And for even more markets insights, you can subscribe to my weekly newsletter, Simply Put, at simplyput.profgmedia.com.

本期节目由先锋领航赞助播出。

Support for the show comes from Vanguard.

各位正在收听节目的理财顾问们，咱们花一分钟聊聊债券。

To all the financial advisers listening, let's talk bonds for a minute.

在固定收益领域捕捉价值并不容易。

Capturing value in fixed income is not easy.

债券市场规模庞大、信息不透明，而且说实话，

Bond markets are massive, murky, and let's be real.

很多公司随便推几只热门基金就完事了。

Lots of firms throw a couple flashy funds your way and call it a day.

但先锋领航不是这样。

But not Vanguard.

先锋领航的债券产品线是围绕机构级品质打造的。

Vanguard's bond lineup is built around institutional quality.

而机构级品质不只是一个口号。

And institutional quality isn't just a tagline.

它代表了一种承诺，致力于提供你的客户应得的投资解决方案。

It's a commitment to delivering the kind of investment solutions that your clients deserve.

这意味着你可以接触到80多只主动管理的债券基金，由一支超过200人的全球团队负责，包括行业专家、分析师和交易员。

That means access to more than 80 bond funds actively managed by a global team of over 200 secondtor specialists, analysts and traders.

有些公司喜欢突出某个明星基金经理，但先锋领航采取了不同的做法。

While some firms like to spotlight a single star portfolio manager, Vanguard takes a different approach.

他们认为最强大的主动策略来自于协作，整个投资团队之间共享想法。

They believe the strongest active strategies come from collaboration, with ideas shared across the entire investment team.

这意味着你的客户受益于数百名投资专业人士的集体智慧，而不是仅仅依靠某个人的观点。

That means your clients benefit from the collective expertise of hundreds of investment professionals, not just one person's perspective.

所以如果你希望年复一年地为客户提供稳定的业绩，那就亲自去vanguard.com/audio看看他们的记录吧。

So if you're looking to give your clients consistent results year in and year out, go see the record for yourself at vanguard.com/audio.

网址是 vanguard.com/audio。

That's vanguard.com/audio.

所有投资都伴随风险。

All investing is subject to risk.

由先锋领航营销公司发行。

Vanguard Marketing Corporation distributor.

本节目的支持来自 VCX，这是私募科技领域的公开股票代码。

Support for the show comes from VCX, the public ticker for private tech.

几代以来，美国企业凭借创新精神和坚定决心推动着世界前进。

For generations, American companies have moved the world forward through their ingenuity and determination.

同样在几代人的时间里，普通美国人也能通过也许是史上最伟大的创新——美国股市——参与到这段历程中。

And for generations, everyday Americans could be a part of that journey through perhaps the greatest innovation of all, The US stock market.

无论你是底特律的工厂工人，还是奥马哈的农民，每个人都有机会拥有这些伟大美国企业的一份股份。

It didn't matter whether you were a factory worker in Detroit or a farmer in Omaha, anyone could own a piece of the great American companies.

但现在情况已经改变了。

But now that's changed.

如今，我们最具创新力的公司都选择保持私有，而不是上市。

Today, our most innovative companies are staying private rather than going public.

结果是，普通美国人被排除在投资之外，越来越落后，而少数人却独享所有好处，直到现在。

The result is that everyday Americans are excluded from investing and getting left further behind while a select few reap all the benefits until now.

隆重推出VCX，私人科技领域的公开股票代码，现在可以在任何购买股票的地方买到。

Introducing VCX, the public ticker for private tech, now available wherever you buy stocks.

VCX by Fundrise让每个人都有机会投资下一代创新，包括引领AI革命、太空探索、国防科技等领域的公司。

VCX by Fundrise gives everyone the opportunity to invest in the next generation of innovation, including the companies leading the AI revolution, space exploration, defense tech, and more.

访问getvcx.com了解更多信息。

Visit getvcx.com for more info.

网址是getvcx.com。

That's getvcx.com.

投资前请仔细考虑投资材料，包括目标、风险、收费和费用。

Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses.

这些信息及其他信息可在基金招股说明书中找到，网址为getvcx.com。

This and other information can be found in the fund's prospectus at getvcx.com.

这是一条付费广告。

This is a paid sponsorship.

本期节目的赞助商是：经营一家企业已经够难了，何必再用一堆互不兼容的应用程序来增加难度呢？

Support for this show comes from Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other?

隆重推出Odoo。

Introducing Odoo.

这是你唯一需要的企业软件。

It's the only business software you'll ever need.

它是一个集成了所有功能的一体化平台，能让你的工作更轻松。

It's an all in one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier.

客户关系管理、会计、库存、电子商务等等。

CRM, accounting, inventory, ecommerce, and more.

最棒的是什么？

And the best part?

Odoo用极低的成本，取代了多个昂贵平台。

ODOO replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost.

正因如此，成千上万家企业都选择了转型。

That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch.

那你呢？为什么不试试？

So why not you?

去 odoo.com 免费试用 Odoo。

Try Odoo for free at odoo.com.

网址是 odoo.com。

That's odoo.com.

我们回到Prof G Markets节目。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

随着与伊朗的战争以及新关税的影响，全球供应链正面临重大动荡。

Between the war with Iran and new tariffs, global supply chains are facing major upheaval.

昨天，伊朗和阿曼同意为通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只开辟一条新航线，并正在接近达成协议，但伊朗表示，在美国解除封锁之前，它不会开放该海峡。

Yesterday, Iran and Oman agreed to a new route for ships transiting the Strait Of Hormuz and are closing in on a deal, but Iran says it won't open the Strait until The US lifts its blockade.

上周末，特朗普总统暂缓了所谓“二战以来最大规模的攻击”，以便给外交努力再试一次的机会。

Over the weekend, president Trump pulled back from, quote, the biggest attack since World War two in order to give diplomacy another try.

他警告说，最新的谈判是结束战争的最后机会。

He warned that the latest negotiations are, quote, the last chance to end the war.

与此同时，特朗普政府给全球贸易带来了新的不确定性。

At the same time, the Trump administration has injected fresh uncertainty into global trade.

七月底，特朗普援引1974年贸易法第301条，对60个经济体征收大规模新关税，覆盖了美国99%的进口商品。

At the end of July, Trump invoked section three zero one of the trade act of 1974 to impose sweeping new tariffs on 60 economies covering 99% of US imports.

周一，25个州提起诉讼，要求阻止这些关税，认为政府是在用第301条来替代IEEPA关税。

On Monday, 25 states sued to block them arguing the administration is using section three zero one to replace the IEEPA tariffs.

当然，这些关税正是最高法院今年早些时候否决的那些。

Of course, those are the tariffs that the supreme court struck down earlier this year.

所以我们想更清楚地了解这里到底发生了什么，以及这一切如何影响全球供应链。

So we wanted to get a better understanding as to what is actually going on here and how everything is affecting global supply chain.

所以，还有谁比Flexport的首席执行官兼创始人Ryan Petersen更适合来聊聊呢？

So who better to speak to than Ryan Petersen, CEO and founder of Flexport.

Ryan，非常感谢你加入我们。

Ryan, thank you so much for joining us.

我们上次聊天已经有一阵子了。

It's been a while since we last chatted.

我想确保大家都了解你的专业背景。

I just wanna make sure everyone understands your expertise.

你经营着一家物流公司。

You run a logistics firm.

你对全球货运供应链的动向有非常深入的了解。

You have a really good insight into how, supply chains are moving around the world when it comes to freight.

当然，这些正是受关税和伊朗战争影响最大的领域，而且这两者都是时断时续的。

And of course, this is what is largely being affected by tariffs and by the war in Iran, and both are on again, off again.

我实在搞不清楚到底发生了什么。

I can't get an understanding as to what is actually happening.

现在到底是什么情况？

What is happening?

你怎么看？

What do you read?

我觉得你总结得挺好的。

I think your summary is pretty good.

确实挺让人困惑的，因为一会儿有，一会儿又没有。

It's, it's it is confusing because it's on and again, off again.

尤其是伊朗战争，真的很难理解。

There's been, the the Iran war, especially, is just, like, really difficult to understand.

我们已经看到过那么多不同的和平协议和最后机会，真的很难判断接下来会怎么发展。

We've had so many different peace deals in last chances already that it's hard to really get a sense for, like, how that's gonna play out.

我在这方面的预测能力也不是很强。

My predictive powers on that are not not that great.

关税方面，我们也有很多不确定性，不过我觉得比之前301关税出台之前要多一些。

On the tariffs piece, also, we have quite a bit of uncertainty, although I would argue a little bit more than we had before these section three zero one tariffs came out.

因为，嗯，这些关税会被挑战，就像你提到的，各州在起诉。

Because, well, they're gonna go they are gonna go and get challenged as you mentioned, the state's suing.

还有很多其他的诉讼。

There's a lot of other lawsuits as well.

301条款的关税在应对这些诉讼方面有更长的存活记录。

The section three zero one tariffs have a longer track record of surviving these lawsuits.

它们背后有更多的程序支撑。

There's a bit more process behind them.

IEPO有点像总统解释的那种非常宽泛的授权，他可能早上起来心情不好，有人惹他生气了，就直接对某个国家加关税。

IEPO is kinda like of really blanket authority that the as the president interpreted it, where he could just wake up on the wrong side of the bed and somebody pissed him off and just, like, throw a tariff at a country.

而301条款要求更多的程序，而且他们已经走完了这些程序。

And section three zero one requires a lot more process, and they've gone through that process.

他们做了这些研究，商务部，抱歉，做了这些研究来说明这个或那个国家，这个行业。

They've created these the commerce department, excuse me, has done these studies to say, this or that country, the sector.

这涉及更多的细节，更多的深思熟虑，可以这么说。

It's been a lot more detail, a lot more thoughtfulness, let's call it.

所以它们更有可能站得住脚。

So they're they're more likely to stand.

我一直觉得AIPA有点，大多数人都认为它基础不太稳固。

I thought AIPA was always a little bit most people thought it was on pretty shaky ground.

所以这就是关税方面的一些情况。

So that's a bit on the tariff side of things.

如果你是个进口商或出口商，要应对这一切，那真是忙得不可开交。

It's it's a whirlwind if you're if you're out there as an importer or exporter trying to deal with all this.

对。

Yeah.

这对货运和物流有什么影响？

How does it affect freight and logistics?

如果有一个关税制度，你不太清楚第二天会发生什么，然后假设它真的发生了，那是不是意味着你突然就要支付那些关税了？

If you have a a tariff regime and you don't really know what's gonna happen the next day and then say it does happen, Like, does that mean that suddenly you're paying those tariffs?

有没有一个滞后期？

Is there a lag time?

这种混乱在多大程度上影响了全球货物的流动？

To what extent does the confusion of all of this actually impact the movement of goods around the globe?

这关乎不确定性，也关乎快速变化以及高税率。

It is about the uncertainty, and it's about the the rapid changes as well as high rates.

现在，我可能会把这两者分开来看。

Now and I'd probably, like, separate those.

去年，这两者都存在。

The last year, we had both.

对吧？

Right?

比如，关税税率在某些时候真的非常高。

Like, high really high at some point, tariff rates.

我忘了具体是多少。

I forget.

对中国的关税一度达到145%，持续了几周。

It was, a 145% on China for, like, a few weeks.

现在对中国的关税仍然很高，但已经低了很多。

They remain pretty high on China, but so there there's the high rates piece, but they're much lower now.

即使是301条款的关税，根据国家的不同，要么是10%，要么是12.5%，进口商说这个税率还算可以接受。

Even these section three zero one were either, like, 10% or 12 and a half percent depending on the country, and that's kind of a manageable rate is what importers are saying.

如果税率保持稳定、可预测，那进口商就挺满意的。

Like, if it stays there and it's stable and predictable, then they're pretty good.

去年是两种情况都有。

Last year, you had both.

既有关税高企，又有很大的不确定性。

You had both high rates and a lot of unpredictability.

所以2025年，有52次，不，

So in 2025, there were 52 no.

53次关税代码变更，分布在全年52周里。

53 changes to the tariff code in fifty two weeks throughout the year.

所以那简直是彻底混乱。

So it was like complete chaos.

其中一些措施实施时毫无预警。

Some of these things were implemented with no notice.

实际上，这次几乎没给通知，因为第122条在7月24日午夜到期，而新措施在凌晨12点01分就生效了。

In fact, this one was done with almost no notice because section one twenty two ended on July 24 at midnight, and this one kicked in at 12:01AM.

而且他们就在那之前几个小时才宣布的。

And they announced it just a few hours before that.

所以几乎没有时间准备。

So very little planning time.

结果就是出了很多错，公司报错了，付错了金额，报错了关税金额。

And the way that manifested itself was just like a lot of mistakes were made, that companies filed the wrong paid the wrong amount, filed the wrong duty amount.

然后到了要退款的时候，他们就很费劲。你知道，他们因为最高法院的裁决拿到了退款，那些钱已经开始从1660亿美元的IEPA关税退款中流出来了。

Then when it comes to getting refunds, have, like, struggled to get their you know, they they got the refund because of the Supreme Court, and those have started to flow out of the 166,000,000,000 of refund that's owed from the IEPA tariff.

现在有1220亿美元正在处理中。

122,000,000,000 are in process right now.

我其实没有政府那边关于已经支付了多少的数据，但1220亿里面有很多还没付出去，或者严重延迟，部分原因是合规太难了，如果你报错了，你确实会拿到退款，但你必须走完整个法律程序先修正你的申报，然后才能拿到退款。

I don't actually have the figure from the government about what's been paid, but there's a lot in that 122 bucket that aren't getting paid out or heavily delayed in part because it was so difficult to comply that if you filed wrong, you're not, yes, you'll get a refund, but you have to go through this whole legal process to first correct your entry, and then you can get a refund.

所以人们肯定在应对这些后果，比如数据没整理好，申报不正确。

So people are definitely dealing with the repercussions of, like, not having their data organized, not having filed correctly.

我觉得这是一个地方，你知道，给我自己公司打个广告，我们作为一家科技公司，有管理这些的数据库，这真的给了我们很大的优势，能帮公司把事情做对。

I think it's one place, you know, plug for my own company where we as being a technology company and having databases for managing this, it's given us a real leg up in helping companies get it right.

嗯，这正是我想问你的，关于关税退款流程。

Well, this is what I was gonna ask you about is the tariff refund process.

我是说，我们从美国海关及其报告中得知，由于所有诉讼，他们不得不向法院提交这些报告，显然政府自最高法院裁决以来已经发放了1000亿美元的关税退款。

I mean, we we know from, US customs and their reporting, which they had to give over to the courts because of the all of the lawsuits, is that apparently the administration has issued a $100,000,000,000 in tariff refunds since the supreme court ruling.

但说到你的观点，这正是你们擅长的领域之一。

But to to your point, this is one of the things that you guys specialize in.

你们确实有一个关税退款计算器，帮助人们弄清楚如何支付关税或拿回关税款项，并真正追回这些退款。

You actually have a tariff refund calculator to help people figure out how to pay the tariffs or get the tariff money back and and actually recover those refunds.

那么，退款流程现在进展到哪一步了？

I mean, where are we in the refund process?

听起来有点混乱，但也许这么说有点过分了。

It sounds like it's a little bit of a shit show, but maybe that's too aggressive.

嗯，我觉得政府在这方面还是值得肯定的。

Well, I I I would give the government some credit here.

我实际上认为他们做得相当不错。

I actually thought they've done a pretty good job.

他们建了一个叫CAPE的系统，算是海关和边境保护局主要技术系统上的一个附加模块，大概花了两个月左右，两三个月就建成了。在政府搞技术项目里，这速度算是相当厉害了。

They built this system called CAPE, which is a sort of an attachment or a module on top of the primary technology system of the of customs of customs border protection, and they shipped it in just about two months or so, two or three months that it took them to build it, which in the scheme of government building technology is, like, quite a feat, actually.

你回头看看海关的政府技术系统，叫ACE，全称是自动化商业环境，当年交付这套软件可是拖了十到十五年，搞得一团糟。

If you go back and see the government technology system for customs, it's called ACE, automated commercial environment, and it was like this ten to fifteen year debacle to deliver the piece of software.

所以，他们能在几个月内加一个这么高风险、这么复杂的模块，处理上千亿的退款，比如一千亿、一千六百六十亿，我觉得从技术角度讲，已经相当不错了。

So for them adding a module that's as high stakes and complex is like refunding, you know, a 100,000,000,000, 166,000,000,000 in just a few months is to my view, a technology, it's, like, pretty it's pretty good.

我确实挺佩服的。

I I'm kind of impressed.

其实问题主要不是出在海关那边。

Where the problems are coming about are actually less because of customs.

问题出在那些报关行和进口商，他们走了太多捷径。

It was actually because of shortcuts that the broker the customs brokerage and the importing community, these businesses took too many shortcuts.

比如你提交申请的时候，尤其是现在大家拿不到退款的地方，你说是一千亿。

So, like, when you're filing especially where you see the pain right now where people are not getting refunds because you said it was a 100,000,000,000.

我之前没看到这个数据，不过，对，听起来差不多。

I hadn't seen that stat, but, yeah, that sounds about right.