迈克·诺沃格拉茨：加密货币的投资者已经转向其他领域

他在设计这些东西的时候非常用心。

he was very thoughtful on how he structured this stuff.

但还不够周全，因为一旦这么做了，游戏就结束了。

It just is not thoughtful enough because once you do that, then the game's over.

现在他背上了沉重的包袱，除非——等等，什么能让比特币再次上涨？

And now he's got a big burden to carry unless, listen, what could get Bitcoin going higher again?

你看到今天公布的CPI数据了吗？

You saw the CPI number today.

凯文·莫尔斯长舒了一口气。

Kevin Morse breathed a huge sigh of relief.

我觉得凯文在这次会议上不会加息，如果通胀继续保持温和，秋天应该也不会加。

I don't think Kevin hikes rates at this next meeting, and he probably doesn't in the fall if inflation stays sanguine.

但如果你看看他可能降息的时机，一旦前景明朗，中国在这其中可是重要角色，我从来不信四年周期的说法，可别人都信。

But if you flip to where he's cutting and you get clarity past, and the Chinese are big players in this, and I never believed in the four year cycle, but everyone else did.

而中国人确实信这个。

And the Chinese certainly do.

而且这个周期会在今年十月重新启动。

And that cycle kind of kicks back off in October of this year.

所以你完全可以构建一个故事，说买家会回来，市场又能热起来。

And so you could, but you can make a narrative where the buyers come back in and you get a story again.

我觉得这个领域现在没什么活力。

I don't see a lot of energy in the space.

以前我的对冲基金团队每天都给我打电话。

My hedge fund guys used to call me every day.

现在他们每两周才找我一次，聊聊加密货币。

Now they call me once every two weeks about crypto.

他们倒是经常打电话，不过谈的是别的事。

They call about other stuff.

这个领域已经没那么让人兴奋了。

It's just not as exciting of a space.

所以所有加密货币公司都在收紧开支，静观其变。

And so all the crypto businesses are kind of batten down the hatches.

我们其实也能看到接下来要发生什么，对吧？

And we do see what's coming, right?

我的意思是，XYZ的交易量已经做到一万亿美元了。

I mean, XYZ is doing a trillion dollars of volume.

这种业务以前根本不存在。

Like that business didn't exist.

Hyper Liquid搞了个代币，感觉就像股票一样，对吧？

Hyper liquid who created a token where it feels like an equity, right?

只要表现越好，价格就越高。

As it does better, the price goes up.

所以未来确实存在，只是我们还没真正看到。

And so the future is kind of out there, but we haven't seen it yet.

广告结束后我们马上回来。

We'll be right back after the break.

如果你到目前为止喜欢这个节目，推荐给朋友吧，也请在YouTube、Spotify或者你听播客的平台关注我们。

And if you're enjoying the show so far, send it to a friend and please follow us on YouTube, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

本节目由先锋基金赞助。

Support for the show comes from Vanguard.

所有正在听节目的理财顾问，咱们来聊聊债券吧。

To all the financial advisers listening, let's talk bonds for a minute.

在固定收益市场中捕捉价值并不容易。

Capturing value in fixed income is not easy.

债券市场体量庞大，信息混乱，说实话，确实如此。

Bond markets are massive, murky, and let's be real.

很多公司就扔给你几只花哨的基金，完事了事。

Lots of firms throw a couple flashy funds your way and call it a day.

但先锋基金不是这样的。

But not Vanguard.

先锋的债券产品线是以机构级品质为基础打造的。

Vanguard's bond lineup is built around institutional quality.

机构级品质可不是随便说说的口号。

And institutional quality isn't just a tagline.

这代表着我们致力于为您的客户提供真正配得上的投资方案。

It's a commitment to delivering the kind of investment solutions that your clients deserve.

这意味着您可以接触到80多种债券基金，均由全球超过200名资深债券专家、分析师和交易员团队主动管理。

That means access to more than 80 bond funds actively managed by a global team of over 200 secondtor specialists, analysts and traders.

有些公司喜欢突出某一位明星基金经理，但先锋采取的是完全不同的方式。

While some firms like to spotlight a single star portfolio manager, Vanguard takes a different approach.

他们相信，最有效的主动投资策略源于团队协作，让整个投资团队共享见解。

They believe the strongest active strategies come from collaboration, with ideas shared across the entire investment team.

这样一来，您的客户受益的是数百位专业人士的集体智慧，而不仅仅是一个人的观点。

That means your clients benefit from the collective expertise of hundreds of investment professionals, not just one person's perspective.

所以，如果您希望为客户提供年复一年的稳定回报，不妨亲自去vanguard.com/audio看看他们的业绩记录。

So if you're looking to give your clients consistent results year in and year out, go see the record for yourself at vanguard.com/audio.

网址是vanguard.com/audio。

That's vanguard.com/audio.

所有投资都存在风险。

All investing is subject to risk.

本节目由Anthropic赞助支持。

Support for the show comes from Anthropic.

如果你想要制作一个像我们这样频繁更新节目的节目，就得保持条理，建立一套可靠的工作流程。

If you want to produce a show that releases episodes as often as we do, you need to stay organized and have a workflow you can rely on.

相信我，你的流程永远有改进和优化的空间。

And believe me, there will always be ways to improve and streamline your processes.

如果这听起来对你有吸引力，那现在是时候了解一下Claude了。

If that sounds appealing, it might be time to check out Claude.

Claude是为那些不满足于及格线的人打造的AI。

Claude is the AI for minds that don't stop at good enough.

它是一个真正理解你整个工作流程、能和你一起思考的合作伙伴。

It's the collaborator that actually understands your entire workflow and thinks with you.

无论你是半夜调试代码，还是规划下一个商业决策，Claude都能延伸你的思维，帮你解决真正重要的问题。

Whether you're debugging code at midnight or strategizing your next business move, Claude extends your thinking to tackle the problems that matter.

Cowork将Claude Code的智能代理能力带到了你的桌面。

Cowork brings Claude Code's agentic power to your desktop.

不需要用终端，任何人都能用 Claude 做正经的工作。

No terminal required so anyone can use and have Claude do real work.

你只要指向电脑上的一个文件夹，或者连接 Google Drive 和 Gmail 就行。

Point it to a folder on your computer or add connectors like Google Drive and Gmail.

你只要说清楚需要什么，剩下的它都会帮你搞定。

Describe what you need and it handles the rest.

比如整理文件、制作表格，或者把零散的笔记整理成报告。

Like organizing files, building spreadsheets or drafting reports from scattered notes.

想不想有个 AI 能真正帮你干活？

Ready to have an AI that can tackle real work?

今天就试试 Claude CoWork 吧。

Try Claude CoWork today.

Claude dot aiMarkets。

Claude dot aiMarkets.

就是 claude.aimarkets。

That's claude.aimarkets.

另外别忘了试试Claude Pro，它包含了今天节目中提到的所有功能。

And check out Claude Pro, which includes access to all of the features mentioned in today's episode.

Claude.ai/markets。

Claude.ai/markets.

本节目由BCX赞助，这是私营科技公司的公开股票代码。

Support for the show comes from BCX, the public ticker for private tech.

几代以来，美国企业凭借其创造力和毅力推动了世界前进。

For generations, American companies have moved the world forward through their ingenuity and determination.

而几代普通美国人也通过或许是人类最伟大的发明之一——美国股市，参与了这一进程。

And for generations, everyday Americans could be a part of that journey through perhaps the greatest innovation of all, The US stock market.

不管你是在底特律的工厂工人，还是在奥马哈的农民，人人都能拥有这些伟大美国公司的股份。

It didn't matter whether you were a factory worker in Detroit or a farmer in Omaha, anyone could own a piece of the great American companies.

但如今，这种情况已经改变了。

But now that's changed.

如今，我们最具创新力的公司更倾向于保持私有，而不是上市。

Today, our most innovative companies are staying private rather than going public.

结果就是，普通美国人被挡在了投资门外，越落越远，而少数人却独享所有红利，直到现在才有所改变。

The result is that everyday Americans are excluded from investing and getting left further behind while a select few reap all the benefits until now.

推出VCX，专为私人科技公司打造的公开股票，现在你在哪里买股票，就能在哪里买到VCX。

Introducing VCX, the public ticker for private tech, now available wherever you buy stocks.

VCX由Fundrise提供，让每个人都有机会投资下一代创新企业，包括引领人工智能、太空探索、国防科技等领域的先锋公司。

VCX by Fundrise gives everyone the opportunity to invest in the next generation of innovation, including the companies leading the AI revolution, space exploration, defense tech, and more.

了解更多，请访问 getvcx.com。

Visit getvcx.com for more info.

详情请访问 getvcx.com。

That's getvcx.com.

投资前请仔细阅读相关材料，包括投资目标、风险、费用和开支。

Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses.

更多详情，请参阅 getvcx.com 上的基金招募说明书。

This and other information can be found in the fund's prospectus at getvcx.com.

本内容为付费赞助。

This is a paid sponsorship.

我们继续回到Prof G Markets的节目。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

我觉得西勒尔已经成了整个行业的代表人物。

I think that Saylor has has really become the face of the industry.

他每次公开说要抛售，结果真的就抛了，这对整个行业来说真是个大问题。

And when he goes out and he's says he's selling and then does sell, I mean, that's a that's a real problem for the industry.

但另一方面，特朗普的参与也值得说一说——我们刚得知，他去年靠加密货币赚了14亿美元，比美国任何一家加密公司赚得都多。

But then on the other side, I would say that Trump's involvement, I mean, the fact that we just learned that he he earned $1,400,000,000 from crypto last year, he outearned every crypto company in America.

他去年在加密货币上的收入，可能比Coinbase还高。

He may he earned more on on crypto than Coinbase last year.

简直难以置信。

Just unbelievable.

你觉得该怪他多少？

How much do you blame it on him?

这真有意思。

It's so interesting.

这是一把双刃剑。

It's a double edged sword.

根斯勒和民主党在加密货币问题上做得太差了。

Like Gensler and the Democrats were terrible on crypto.

作为民主党人，我觉得他们做的事简直不像美国该有的样子。

And as a Democrat, was like, this is almost not American.

他们那种做法，真是让人看不懂。

Like what they were doing.

特朗普竞选时说，他会支持加密货币。

And Trump ran on, I'm gonna take care of crypto.

他确实做到了。

And he did.

所以一开始的势头是好的，我们有了一个对加密货币非常友好的证交会和商品期货交易委员会。

So that initial surge was, okay, we've got an SEC and a CFTC that are gonna be very crypto positive.

说实在的，公平地说，证交会主席还问过：你有没有在就职典礼前跟他聊过？

And quite frankly, to be fair to the head of the SEC, he said, have you ever talked to him right before the inauguration?

他说，在规则出台之前，他不会去执行任何规则。

He said, Until there are rules, I'm not going to enforce the rule.

不会去执行那些根本不存在的规则。

I'm not going to enforce non rules.

所以本质上，他是在说：在《清晰法案》通过前，你们尽管放手去做。

And so in essence, he said, Go for it until the Clarity Act passes.

结果大家真就这么干了。

And people did.

像Hyperliquid和XYZ这样的公司，说实话，都在快速发展。

And so companies like, quite frankly, Hyperliquid and XYZ, right?

非KYC的公司正在蓬勃成长，压根没觉得会重蹈CZ或亚瑟·海耶斯的覆辙。

Non KYC companies are growing and thriving, not thinking they're gonna have the same thing that CZ or Arthur Hayes did, right?

他们以为美国法律的长臂够不着他们，哪怕公司根本不在美国。

The long arm, The US law getting them, even if they're not US companies.

我觉得特朗普也一样，听好了，保罗·阿特金斯告诉我，他说：我完全支持信息披露。

I think what Trump also, and listen, Paul Atkins telling me this, he said, listen, I'm all about disclosure.

要是都明示了，那就买家自负风险，对吧？

If it's disclosed, buyer beware, right?

这可是共和党那种大人的思路，民主党则想保护消费者，可他们也说买家自负风险。

That's a big boy's Republican idea, Democrats want to protect the consumer, buyer beware.

所有这些特朗普币，比如WILFY这种迷因币，你要是真看了那 tiny 的免责条款，就会发现，其实他并不是靠卖币赚了这么多钱。

All of these Trump coins, WILFY, the meme coin, if you read the fricking tiny fine print, says, oh, it's not that he made all this money from selling the coins.

每笔交易，他们都会收一笔营销费。

Every transaction, they got a marketing fee.

所有这些门道，全藏在那该死的免责条款里。

And so it's all in the fricking fine print.

真是让人无语。

It's like, oh my goodness.

问题是，有谁会去读那些该死的免责条款？

The question is who reads the fucking fine print?

是啊。

Yeah.

所以他们靠特朗普币暴跌赚了六亿美元。

So like they made $600,000,000 off Trump coin when it went straight down.

还有不少人把币卖了出去。

And then there's also people that sold the coins.

听好了，这根本帮不上忙。

So listen, it doesn't help at all.

比如这个透明法案，如果通不过，就会因为伦理问题卡住。

Like this clarity act, if it doesn't pass, it's gonna stumble because of the ethics piece.

连共和党人都说，得有点约束才行。

Because even Republicans are saying, need some.

那些靠这个议题竞选的共和党人，现在越来越难了，这事儿看起来越来越腐败。

It's hard for Republicans that are running on this thing that looks more and more corrupt.

人们都说，我现在至少每个月都要去一趟华盛顿。

And people are like, and I go down to DC at least once a month now.

我就跟他们说，别光看表面。

I'm like, guys, look past it.

什么对国家有利？

What's good for the country?

什么对这个行业有利？

What's good for the industry?

给出明确的规则。

Give clear rules.

这对任何行业都有好处。

That's good for any industry.

以前明明有好多合法途径可以对付行为不端的总统，对吧？

And there were plenty of legal ways to go after a president who's doing bad things, right?

从利益冲突条款，到禁止内幕交易，都明明白白写着呢。

From emoluments clause to just you're not allowed to insider trade.

司法部却决定不去追查那些正常情况下一定会查的案子。

We have a Department of Justice who has decided not to pursue cases against what normal Department of Justices would pursue.

所以我才说，为什么加密货币就得有套特殊规则？

And so I argue that why should crypto have a special set of rules?

你可以用稀土和哈萨克斯坦那笔交易来看同样的情况。

You can look the same thing with the rare earths, the Kazakhstan deal.

我的意思是，不少交易都让人觉得不太地道。

I mean, are plenty of deals that don't feel up and up.

但大部分财富都集中在加密货币上，这就成了一个真正敏感的政治话题。

But the bulk was crypto of the wealth, and so that's become a real political hot potato.

你之前说加密货币是个故事，没错。

So what you said before that kind of crypto is a story.

如果你有个资产，既不产生现金流，也没有实体资产，那它就像个空容器，全靠故事或叙事来填充——现在好多股票不就是这样吗？我们管这叫‘迷因’。

If you have an asset that doesn't produce underlying cash flows, doesn't have hard assets, then it is sort of it's a it feels like an empty vessel that is filled with a story or a narrative, and that describes a lot of stocks right now, and the word we use is meme.

对吧？

Right?

你刚才说的那番话，我挺认同的，那种能量感确实很到位。

Do you think that the energy and I like the way you described it.

但其他地方的能量更强。

There's just more energy elsewhere.

你觉得焦点转向了SpaceX和人工智能，那些以前热衷于炒加密货币的人，现在是不是更想买卖SpaceX的零日期权了？

Do you think the story shifting to SpaceX and AI, do you think a lot of that mentality or that gestalt or the kind of person that was buying crypto is now quite frankly more interested in trading, you know, zero day options on SpaceX right now?

我们看得清清楚楚。

We see it 100%.

确实如此，而且特别有意思的是，不只是加密圈里的人，连非加密圈的人也一样。

That's that's and it's so interesting because you could even in non crypto people, so 100% within crypto people.

我之前跟你说过的那两家中国大公司，他们也急着想进入代币化股权领域，因为客户都在要求这个。

When I talked to those two big Chinese firms I was telling you about, they were like, they're dying to get into the tokenized equity game because their customers want it.

人都往最热的地方跑。

People want to go where the heat is.

但放眼更大的宏观格局，对吧？

But even in bigger macro, right?

因为特朗普一上台就猛踩美元，这事儿你懂的。

Because Trump came out at the beginning and started bashing the dollar really, right?

他压根不想参与国际社会。

I don't want to be part of the international community.

他们想要一个独立的美元。

Like they wanted a weed dollar.

现在贝森稍微改变了一下，但早期的说法是，去他的加拿大，去他的，我们要

Now Bessen's changed that a little bit, but the early story was screw Canada, screw, we're gonna

把

take

格陵兰岛搞到手。

out Greenland.

那我想问问，如果你突然继承了1000万美元，埃德，你觉得把钱放在哪里最安全？

And this idea of where should you, if you inherit $10,000,000 Ed, like what's the safe place to be?

是放在美元里吗？

Was it in the dollar?

结果大家都跑去买黄金和白银了，黄金和白银在那段泡沫期里涨幅巨大。

And so everyone went gold and silver, and gold and silver had a huge move in its bubble.

先是比特币，然后是黄金和白银，接着是韩国股票。

It was Bitcoin and then gold and silver, and then Korean stocks.

所以大家都在抢着躲开那个烫手山芋，生怕被邻居甩在后面。

And so moving the hot potato of where to stay ahead of your neighbor.

因为你要记住，财富说到底就是比谁更有钱。

Because remember, wealth is all about, am I richer than you?

对吧？

Right?

不是看绝对数字。

It's not an absolute number.

而是看相对位置。

It's a relative number.

所以我觉得，当财富管理顾问现在变得复杂多了，因为有这么多高波动的市场，还都被杠杆放大了。

And so I think being a wealth manager has gotten so much more complicated because you have these hyper vol places, which are exaggerated by all the leverage.

就说现在在美国吧。

I mean, right now in The U.

股票市场里，全球从未像现在这样充斥着如此高的杠杆。

Equity market, we have never ever had as much leverage in global markets.

我们在这里是独一无二的。

We're one of one here.

我们已经超过29了，超过7了，也超过99了。

We're above 29, we're above seven, we're above 99.

所以现在所处的位置非常危险。

And so it's a very dangerous place to be.

我们之前请过汤姆·李做客节目，那时候比特币正经历一波下跌。

We had Tom Lee on the show, and he said, I mean, we had him on when Bitcoin was suffering recently.

他说他预计比特币今年年底会突破十万美元。

He said he sees Bitcoin going over $100,000 by the end of the year.

你同意这个看法吗？

Do you agree with that?

你对比特币价格有什么预测吗？

And do you have any predictions for Bitcoin price?

就当是听个耳风吧。

Just lips to God's ears.

听我说，我能说说我的看法吗？

Listen, can I make a case for it?

当然可以。

Sure.

我们需要《清晰法案》的支持。

We would need Clarity Act.

还得靠美联储降息，再加上有人重新进场买入。

We would need the Fed cutting rates, and we would need some buyer base to get reignited.

这三样我现在都没看到。

I'm not seeing those three things.

我觉得今年不会降息。

I don't think we cut rates this year.

但至少我们不至于还得加息。

I think we'll be good enough not to hike them.

至于法案的通过，现在大概有六成到四成的机会，甚至可能已经到三分之二了。

Clarity, I think there's a sixtyforty, maybe even a two thirds at this point.

我的直觉是，他们 somehow 能够在终点线前找到突破口，那样就能帮上忙。

My gut feeling is somehow they find it to get away across the finish line and that will help.

我看不出新的热情从哪儿来。

I don't see where the new enthusiasm comes from.

但我想说的是，每次加密货币看起来都完蛋了，总会发生点什么，让你惊呼一声：哇。

But the one thing I would say is every time crypto feels dead, like something happens and you're like, woah.

所以我不会直接否定它，但我目前真看不到希望。

And so I don't wanna count it out, but I don't see it.

过去最轻松的一次加密牛市就是新冠疫情，因为那时候大家觉得：对，这正是我的故事。

In the past, like the easiest crypto bull market of all time was COVID, because you're like, oh, that's my narrative.

我觉得自己像个圈内人，毕竟我也是讲故事的那一个。

And I feel like I'm an insider because I'm one of the storytellers.

我一直在琢磨，该怎么讲个故事让大家兴奋起来。

And I figured out what's the story I can tell to get people excited.

结果就是，大家都知道，印钞机开动了，对吧？

And it was, you know, the money printer goes, right?

我们当时打算砸大把大把的钱去解决新冠疫情问题。

Like we were gonna throw tons and tons of money at the COVID problem.

结果孩子们有了更多空闲时间，整天没事干就去赌博。

And you had kids that now had more time to sit around and do nothing but gamble.

对，说得太准了。

Yeah, that's exactly right.

那如果你要预测一下今年年底的价格会到多少？

So if you had to predict a price point by the end of the year?

我觉得60美元能撑住，80.80美元可能会是高点。

I think 60 is gonna hold, and I think $80.80 is gonna be a top.

如果我们真能突破80美元，那100美元就会成为新的高点。

And if we can get through 80, then a 100 is gonna be a top.

不过我觉得今年剩下的时间，价格大概就在60到80美元之间波动，除非出现特别好的契机。

But I would I would say we're $60.80 for the the rest of the year, unless we get a real nice setup.

我们先聊聊人工智能。

Shifting to AI for a moment.

大家都知道银河数字是一家加密货币公司，也都知道你是加密投资者，所以上周，或者前几周，《华尔街日报》登出一条新闻时，很多人可能都挺意外的。

And if everyone knows Galaxy Digital as a crypto company, they know you as a crypto investor, which is why I think a lot of people might have been surprised to read a headline in the Wall Street Journal last week or maybe a couple weeks ago.

新闻说：‘银河数字股价因人工智能数据中心业务飙升。’

It said, quote, Galaxy Digital stock surges on AI data center business.

这个故事真的很有趣。

This is a very interesting story.

现在，银河数字已经进入人工智能领域了。

Galaxy Digital is now in the AI business.

这到底是怎么发生的？

How did that happen?

你是怎么切入这个行业的？

How did you get into this?

你知道，加密圈有时候就像自带一道彩虹，走到哪儿跟到哪儿。

You know, the crypto community sometimes has a little rainbow that follows it around.

人工智能领域耗能最大的用户，其实就是比特币矿工。

The biggest users of energy for AI were Bitcoin miners.

我们涉足比特币挖矿，部分原因是受特朗普的另一项政策影响。他提出了2020年的机会区计划，或者可能是2016年。

And we got into Bitcoin mining partly out of another Trump thing when he came up with the twenty twenty opportunity zones, or maybe it was 2016.

机会区计划是什么时候推出的来着？

When was the opportunity zone thing came in?

不过在2021年，那是利润和加密货币爆发的一年。

But in 2021, it was a monster year in profits and crypto.

而且我

And I

当时就想，

was like,

不想交这么多资本利得税。

don't want pay all this capital gains tax.

不如投到机会区里。

Let's put it into an opportunity zone.

在我们这个领域里，机会区里最好的资产之一就是比特币挖矿。

One of the best assets for an opportunity zone within our space was Bitcoin mining.

所以我以前根本没做过比特币挖矿，因为我不喜欢这行，但为了这个税务优惠，我们还是入了这一行。

And so having never been a Bitcoin miner, because I didn't like the business, I'm like, well, but for this tax advantage, we'll go into Bitcoin mining.

我之前说过，加密货币圈里并不是所有人都干净利落。

And, you know, I said something before, you don't have all the cleanest players in crypto.

在把机器托管在别人的数据中心出了几次岔子后，我们决定干脆自己买一个数据中心。

And after a couple mistakes of hosting our machines at other people's data centers, we decided we wanted to buy our own data center.

到了2022年，有一家公司拥有德克萨斯州一个大型数据中心，眼看就要破产了。

And now it's 2022, and there's this company that owns a giant data center in Texas that is close to bankruptcy.

我们帮他们躲过破产，买下了他们的数据中心，还借了他们一笔钱。

And we help them avoid bankruptcy by buying their big data center and lending them some money.

于是我们拿到了全美最棒的比特币挖矿数据中心之一。

And so we got our hands on what looked like one of the best Bitcoin mining data centers in the country.

我们把机器搬进去，那确实是个不错的挖矿数据中心。

And we put our machines there, it was a decent Bitcoin mining data center.

等到AI热潮起来，大家开始热议电力市场的巨大牛市时，我就想：天啊，我们手上有大量电力资源。

When AI kicked in and people started talking about this giant bull market in power, I was like, Dude, we own a lot of power.

这其中有一部分是运气。

And so some of it's luck.

还有一部分是我们够聪明，当时大家都想买下它或者合作，但我们说不，这东西的价值比我们想的还要高。

Some of it was us being smart and saying, because everyone wanted to buy it or partner with it and say, No, no, this is more valuable than we think.

现在我们已经把它发展起来了。

And now we've developed it.

我觉得这个海力斯就是整个园区。

I think this Helios is the campus.

我很有把握，它会成为美国最大的数据中心。

I'm pretty certain it will be the largest data center in The United States.

它不是建在电网计量表后面的。

That's not being built behind the meter.

它是电网的一部分。

That's part of the grid.

我们目前已经获得了16亿瓦的审批额度。

We're already 1.6 gigawatts approved.

还有另外一吉瓦的项目在排队，我们将在第一季度得到明确消息。

There's another gigawatt that is in the queue that we'll know about in first quarter.

但即使只有1.6吉瓦，这也是一个规模巨大的数据中心。

But even at 1.6 gigawatts, that is a massive data center.

对我们来说，这相当于一千六百亿美元的资本支出。

For us, it's about a $16,000,000,000 CapEx spend.

而那些把芯片装进去的公司，可能还要再加六千亿。

Then the people that put the chips inside it, probably another 60.

光是我们目前已经签约的部分，资本支出就将达到七千五百亿美元。

So just from what we're already contracted, it's gonna be a $75,000,000,000 CapEx bill.

如果全部建成，总额会超过一万亿美元。

If you build the whole thing out, it'll be over 100.

美国历史上唯一一个达到一万亿美元资本支出的项目，就是州际高速公路系统。

The only $100,000,000,000 CapEx build in American history is the interstate highway system.

所以对我来说，当个房东挺有意思的，因为我们手里的资源是电力。

And so for me, it's interesting to become a landlord because our business is we have the power.

我们会去找人签租赁合同，对方说愿意租给我们。

We go get a lease from somebody who says, I'll rent it from you.

拿到合同后，我们就去找银行，说需要贷款来建这个项目。

You take that lease, we go to the bankers and say, we need to borrow the money to build it.

你得按时、按预算建好，然后收租，祈祷租户别倒闭。

You gotta build on time and on budget, and then you collect rent and pray your tenant doesn't go bust.

对，没错。

Yeah, exactly.

这对一些公司的AI数据中心模式来说，正变得越来越关键，对吧？

Which is increasingly the question for the AI data center models for some of these companies, right?

是的。

Yeah.

我回头看了看，从来没听说过全球市值前三的公司会在十五年内破产。

I look back, and I couldn't find an example of a top three market cap company in the world ever going bankrupt in a fifteen year period.

对吧？

Right?

诺基亚差点就倒了，你知道的。

Nokia got close, you know?

是的。

Yeah.

但我得再强调一下，亚马逊市值跌了92%，思科也是。

But there I just wanna double tap on that because Amazon lost 92% of its value, so did Cisco.

它们没破产，但市值蒸发了92%。

They didn't go bankrupt, but they lost 92.

我想说说这个趋势，听听你的看法。

And what I I'm I'm wanna describe a dynamic and just get your thoughts.

我觉得最近九十天里，AI领域可能从供给短缺转向了需求不足。

It seems to me that in the last ninety days, there's been this dramatic shift potentially from a supply crisis in AI to a demand crisis.

很多原本负责推动前端需求的公司——包括全球最大的平台Meta、X AI——突然意识到，他们高估了自己在大语言模型上的需求创造能力，但手头却积累了庞大的基础设施。

And that is a lot of the front end guys who were supposed to be creating this all this demand on the front end, including Meta, the largest scaled platform in the world, x AI, have all of a sudden decided, okay, we overestimated our ability to create demand on the front of these LLMs, but we have this incredible infrastructure we've developed.

而迈克·诺沃格拉茨则提前（或幸运地）为加密货币建了不少数据中心容量。

And then we have Mike Novogratz, who preciently or fortunately built a bunch of data center capacity for crypto.

我觉得是这样，你帮我看看我哪儿说得不对。

It feels like and tell me where I got this wrong.

我们已经从算力短缺的状况，转向了可能连供给都过剩的局面——因为现在几乎所有人都在从制造需求转向扩大供给。据我所知，目前真正还在创造需求的，只有Anthropic和OpenAI两家。

We've moved we've flipped from a supply crisis where there's not enough compute to potentially not only meeting the supply because everyone's flipping from demand generation to supply generation for essentially, as far as I can tell, the only one the only people creating demand right now are Anthropic and OpenAI.

你是不是担心，这股风向会突然反转，变成需求不足的问题？

Are you worried that the pendulum swinging the other way to a demand crisis?

这股风向会来回摆动得特别快。

It's gonna be a very quick moving pendulum back and forth.

我跟你说，你提到的那些算力，我们16亿瓦的总容量里，已经有2亿瓦投入运行，正在生产AI相关的东西。

And I tell you what, so first of all, most of the power that you've talked about, like of our 1.6 gigawatts, 200 megawatts is now up and running and producing AI stuff.

但这些算力才刚刚开始发挥作用。

And so it's just getting started, this power being brought online.

可大多数公司还没真正用上AI，主要是他们不敢用，也不知道怎么用。

But most companies aren't really using AI yet because they're scared to, they don't know how to.

我们目前连机器人还没搞出来呢。

We don't have robots yet.

当你看到算力使用量开始爆发式增长时，很难想象，但我们还处在最初的起步阶段。

When you look at the exponential usage of compute when it starts really happening, it's hard to think of this, but we're in the first out of the first inning.

就说我们公司吧，我都没喊出来，但我们还得用更多。

And I mean, even in my company, and I didn't scream, we got to use more.

我们刚和Anthropic的内部团队开了四十分钟的会，因为他们专门有人帮企业学会怎么更好地使用这项技术。

We just did a forty minute call with Anthropic and their internal team to, because they have a team to help people learn how to use it better.

我觉得我们还应该更前沿一些。

I think, and we should be more cutting edge.

我觉得美国大部分企业根本还没真正用上AI。

I think the bulk of America isn't even really using AI yet.

真正落地的应用场景，会消耗多得多的电力。

And the real use, I mean, the real use cases are gonna take so much more power.

但我认为这不会是线性增长，因为你说得对。

But I don't think it's a linear line because I think you're right.

你不可能有五个这样的公司。

You're not gonna have five of them.

总会有一些人胜出，另一些人被淘汰。

You're gonna have some guys win and other guys get knocked out.

现在讨论这个还为时过早。

I just think it's early to debate.

就连我觉得谁会赢，现在也太早下定论了。

Even to think I'm dropping is gonna be the winner, it's early to know.

我这辈子每次觉得马斯克要完蛋，结果都被他狠狠打脸。

Like every time I've counted Elon Musk out in my life, I've been smacked in the jaw.

这话真说到我心坎里了。

Tell me about it, brother.

你刚才一下子抓住了重点，我觉得这正是核心所在——那些正在激烈碰撞的焦点问题。

But that's So, you just zeroed in or you've identified what I think is the fulcrum or the epicenter, the the the plates crashing into each other around what is the central question or debate.

关键问题是：我们是不是才刚摸到皮毛？

And that is, are we just scratching the surface?

我们当初根本想象不到宽带会有这么多用途。

We we we didn't even imagine all the different uses for broadband.

对吧？

Right?

我们当时觉得，只要芯片每十八个月性能翻倍、成本减半，总有一天我们就不需要更多了。

We thought, oh, at some point, if the chip keeps doubling in power and halving in cost every eighteen months, we're we're not gonna need anymore.

但我们实际用宽带的方式，比它的指数级增长还要快得多。

And we have invented ways to use broadband a lot faster than even the exponential increase in it.

我完全从概念上能理解这一点。

And I absolutely conceptually understand.

但同时，我也觉得有个相反的观点：其实我们并没有站在爆发式应用的边缘。

At the same time, I think there's a countervailing argument that, actually, it's not it's not that we're on the precipice of an explosion in ways to use it.

很多公司确实在用，

A lot of companies are using it.

只是没拿到当初预期的回报。

They're just not getting the return they'd initially anticipated.

事实上，我觉得不少CFO会说：玩儿够了，该收手了。

And then we might, in fact I think there's a decent thesis that a lot of CFOs are gonna say playtime is over.

你得要么证明我们使用令牌的回报率，要么就减少使用量。

I need you to either justify the return on investment in our token consumption or to reduce it.

令牌的成本得大幅下降才行。

Well, the cost of tokens is gonna have to go way down.

让我给你讲个简短的故事。

Here, let me tell you a story, a quick one.

我投资了一个年轻人，不是通过银河资本，而是个人投资，他正在得克萨斯州创办一家健康保险公司，这孩子特别出色。

I invested not through Galaxy, PA investment in this young kid who was building an insurance company, a health insurance company based in Texas, a brilliant kid.

他16岁的时候就获得了英国年度科学家奖。

He was scientist of the year in The UK when he was like 16.

不是年度青年科学家，是年度科学家。

Not young scientist, scientist of the year.

他有个很好的构想，打算用人工智能，但核心问题是：我能不能激励人们尽早做检查？

He had a great thesis and he was gonna use AI, but the thesis was more, can I incentivize people to get tested early on?

如果能做到，我就给他们零自付额、零保费，因为这样能把医疗支出降低30%。

And then if I do that, I'm gonna give them no copay and no premiums because I can drive medical costs, medical expense down 30%.

他现在真的在这么做。

And he's doing that.

于是他说，我要用人工智能。

So then he says, I'm gonna use AI.

一开始是所有后台工作，对吧？

First it was all the back office, right?

在美国医疗体系里， paperwork 多得惊人，对吧？

There's huge amounts of paperwork pushing at Aetna and US healthcare, right?

这正是美国医疗体系需要解决的。

That needs US healthcare.

按法律规定，他们最多能收15%的费用。

Legally, can have a 15% charge.

85%给医疗服务提供方，15%归他们。

85% goes to the providers, 15% to them.

他们的利润率只有百分之二到三。

And they do two to 3% margins.

他说，我可以把所有这些文书工作都交给AI处理。

And he said, well, I can AI all the paperwork.

接着他又说，我要做个AI版的Salesforce。

Then he said, let me create an AI Salesforce.

我当时就愣住了，什么？

And I was like, what?

就在那一刻，成百上千家医院、精神科医生和医疗系统，都是你想要推销的对象。

And right there, hundreds of hospitals and psychiatrists and healthcare systems that you're trying to sell this to.

他开发了AI Lucy，用来替代电话簿。

And he created AI Lucy that the phone book.

我要先找出目标客户，弄清楚该联系谁，然后发邮件，开启对话。

I'm gonna figure out who my targets were, figured out who to talk to at that target, sent them an email, started the conversation.

从头到尾，他直接拿到了DocuSign的签约。

Start to finish, he got the DocuSign.

他那支50人的Salesforce团队，一共签下了90个客户。

And his Salesforce of 50 people did 90 clients.

在两个月的销售期内，他们签了90份合同。

90 in the two month sales period did 90 contracts.

平均下来，每人两份。

So basically two each.

露西一个人在头两个月就完成了五倍的数量。

Lucy in her first two months did five times that by herself.

他当时就说：天哪。

And he was like, oh my God.

这是我第一次见到真正意义上的超人级员工。

And so it's the first example I've seen as someone who's actually created a real superhuman employee.

这可是从头到尾全流程搞定销售，而且还是个挺复杂的行业。

That's soup to nuts sales in a pretty complicated business.

现在听好了，他是个天才少年。

And now listen, he's a boy genius.

他们觉得我会从这家公司赚到比以往任何风投都多的钱，我也希望如此。

They think I'm gonna make more money out of this company than I have on any venture bet, I hope.

所以我更像是个啦啦队队长，但更重要的是，我当时就想，这不仅仅是提升流程效率那么简单。

And so I'm a cheerleader, but more importantly, I was like, that's not just processing and making someone more efficient.

这简直就是超人般的表现。

That literally is superhuman.

我觉得我们才刚起步，但这里还有个例子。

I just think we're so early in this thing, but it's a good Here's another example.

高盛的人告诉我，他们把所有对话都录下来了。

Goldman was telling me that they record all the conversations.

每天晚上再分析一遍，看看团队整体的思路是什么。

And at the end of the night, they run it through and figure out what's the collective brain thinking.

他说，现在可以买那种跟着人走的小机器人。

And he said, well, you can get these little robots that followed people around.

比如我和你聊天，除非机器人一直跟着我，否则根本录不到对话。

So if I'm having a conversation with you, the only way the recording is gonna be if the robot follows me around.

所以现在，连我们在饮水机旁闲聊的内容都被录下来了。

And so now it's recording us talking by the water cooler.

那个机器人有太多方式可以跟踪你、记录你的一举一动。

That robot has so many touch points to be able to follow you around and record.

这就是他们说的‘无限延伸’的用例，对吧？

That's the usage where they say it goes infinite, right?

每个设备都会接入这个AI网络。

That every last device is connected to this grid of AI.

这未来有点怪，但这就是他们的赌注。

It's a future that's a weird one, but that's the bet.

如果大家只是用它来提高邮件效率，Scott，你确实完全对。

And if it's just people using it to make their email more efficient, Scott, you're a 100% right.

但你得有这种想象力——现在纽约根本看不到无人驾驶汽车。

But you've gotta have that imagination that like there are no driverless cars in New York right now.

好吧，可能有几辆，但你压根见不着。

I mean, sure there are a couple, but you never see them.

要是五年后整个车队都变成无人驾驶了，而你刚好买了新款特斯拉，那特斯拉的自动驾驶功能你就用上了。

Like if in five years the whole fleet's driverless, and if you've gotten the new Tesla, you know, Tesla self drive.

我其实好几年没碰过了，那时候就是松开手，车就自己停了。

I mean, hadn't done it in years because I was just, you know, take my hands off the wheel and it would stop.

现在呢，你就能这么随便开。

Now you just can go like this.

我也不太确定。

I don't know.

我知道的是，斯科特说得对，接下来肯定会左一下、右一下、再左一下、再右一下。

I do know is Scott's right in that you're gonna have this lurch left, lurch right, lurch left, lurch right.

这事儿不可能是直线发展的。

This is not gonna be linear.

咱们现在正处于一个陡升的阶段，对吧？

And we're at parabolic, right?

股市早就冲上去了。

Markets went parabolic.

所以我觉得，现在的股票市场其实非常危险。

And so I think it's very The equity markets I think are very dangerous right now.

是的。

Yeah.

我想问题在于，正如你所说，这些未来场景完全有可能实现。

I guess the the trouble is, to your point, these futures are totally possible.

它们都摆在桌面上了。

They're totally on the table.

投入这些领域的资金规模之大，会让人觉得它们势在必行。

The amount of capital that is going into them, that is being invested, would make you think that they're inevitable.

但问题就在这儿——它们未必真的不可避免。

And that's the problem is they're not necessarily inevitable.

就像当年的互联网泡沫，当时出现了大规模的过度投资和过度建设，大家只觉得某种变化一定会发生，却说不清具体会是什么。

And similar to what we saw with the .com boom, there was a massive period of overinvestment, overbuilding, knowing that something would happen, but not necessarily knowing what it would actually be.

现在的情况看起来和那时非常相似。

It does seem quite similar to what we're seeing right now.

就连我跟你说过的那些数据，要建成我们完整的数据中心，投资超过一千亿美元，这将是史上最大的资本支出。

Even the stats I gave you, for us to build out our full data center is over $100,000,000,000 and that'll be the biggest CapEx.

我的意思是，银河公司当初是个小公司。

I mean, Galaxy was a small company.

我们现在是一家数据中心公司。

We're in a data center company.

我们现在市值超过一千亿美元了，要想在2031年真能说‘我花了整整一千亿美元’，得有太多事情都得顺利才行。

We're a 10 plus billion dollar market cap now, there's a lot that has to go right for us to actually, by 2031, say, Dude, I spent a $100,000,000,000.

我觉得你完全可以

See, I think you could

花掉这笔钱。

spend it.

老兄，这事儿真成了。

Dude, it worked.

最难的地方在于

It's the

执行。

hard part.

在这个环境下，你其实很容易就把这笔钱花掉。

Think in this environment, you could probably spend it.

但问题是，需求太多了。

Well, but there's so many.

你看现在得克萨斯州的情况，他们就说：停一停。

I mean, what you're seeing now in Texas is they're like, okay, stop.

因为太多人申请了建设许可之类的。

Because so many people applied for permits and whatnot.

如果你把所有申请建数据中心的项目都算上，整个国家都会变成一个巨大的数据中心。

If you looked at, and why the politics are changing at data centers, if you looked at every thing that was applied to be built, the whole country would look like one giant data center.

整个州都会这样。

I mean, whole state.

所以现在所有政客都吓坏了，说：等等，这不对劲。

And so now all the politicians are like, woah, woah, woah, that's not right.

于是他们开始采取一些明智的措施，比如要求先拿钱出来。

And so they're doing some smart things to say, hey, gotta put the money up first.

很多人已经退出了。

And lots of people are falling away.

但我觉得，你听说的那些提案里，最终能收费的大概只有百分之十。

But I think of what you read about and hear about and are proposed, 10% will get billed.

即便如此，那也是个巨大的数字。

That's still a huge dumper.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

想了解更多市场内容，请到 profgmarkets.com 订阅我们的通讯。

And for even more markets content, sign up for our newsletter at profgmarkets.com.

你还记得 Snapchat 吗？

Remember Snapchat?

那个以发送会消失的照片和视频给朋友而闻名的App？

The app best known for being the place to send disappearing photos and videos to your friends?

最近，Snapchat 又上了新闻。

Well, Snapchat was back in the news recently,

但这次不一样了

but this time

这次跟消失的照片和视频没关系了。

it was not about disappearing photos and videos.

这次是关于一种戴在脸上的智能眼镜。

It was about smart glasses that you put and keep on your face.

Snapchat 想进军这个领域，推出了一副黑色粗框眼镜。

Snapchat was trying to get in on the game with a pair of black horn rimmed looking spectacles.

就像《飞屋环游记》里那位老爷爷戴的那种，但厚度要再翻三倍。

Think the pair that the old man in Up wears, but like three times thicker.

而且售价高达2195美元。

And with a price tag of $2,195.

SnapCEO伊万·斯皮格尔戴这副眼镜的照片在网上疯传，但全是嘲讽的评论。

Photos of Snap CEO Evan Spiegel wearing his specs, that's what they're called by the way, specs, were all over the internet and not in a good way.

大家都在笑。

People were laughing.

他们笑归笑，结果Snap的股价还是跌了。

And they laughed all the the way over the stock market where Snap took a hit.

但正如你待会儿在福克斯的这期《解释》里会听到的，Snap在智能眼镜上玩的是长远布局，其他科技巨头也一样。

But as you're gonna hear on today explain from Fox, Snap's playing the long game with smart glasses, and the rest of big tech is too.

智能眼镜已经正式来了，所以我们这期节目也正式聊聊它，顺便担心一下我们的隐私问题。

Smart glasses are officially here, so we're gonna officially talk about them on the show and worry about our privacy.

民主党内部正爆发一场内战，而这场内战最明显的表现，就在密歇根州。

There's a civil war happening in the Democratic party, and if there's one place that that's playing out most clearly, it's in Michigan.

密歇根州一场关键的参议员初选，

A crucial senate primary battle in Michigan that

可能决定今年十一月国会的控制权。

Could determine control of congress in November.

国会议员海莉·史蒂文斯和阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德。

Congresswoman Haley Stevens and Abdul El Sayed.

一位进步派民主党人，一位温和派民主党人。

A progressive Democrat and a moderate Democrat.

归根结底，一切都绕不开那个让人头疼的词——可选举性。

In the end, it all comes down to the dreaded e word, electability.

但在密歇根，有一位候选人正试图颠覆‘可选举性’这个概念。

But in Michigan, one candidate is trying to turn the electability concept

翻转过来。

on its head.

如果我们以为选民出门前都在想：我到底属于左派还是右派？

If we think that voters walk around asking, where do I sit on some theoretical left right spectrum?

那理论上，大多数选民应该都处在中间位置。

Then in theory, the bulk of the voters are somewhere in the middle.

但问题在于，这种模型早就没法准确解释我们的政治现实了。

The problem though is that that model hasn't really accurately predicted our politics for a very long time.

如果密歇根人真喜欢温和派，那他们为啥两次都投了特朗普？

If Michiganders wanted moderate, why would they have elected Donald Trump twice?

阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德博士正在为‘美国优先’的激进路线辩护，同时也在试图解决民主党内那场意识形态之争。

Doctor Abdul El Syed is making the progressive case for America first, and he's trying to settle the Democrats' ideological battle in the process.

这关乎的是大众 versus 金钱。

This is about the many versus the money.

我是埃斯特eb·埃尔金，欢迎收听《真实美国》。

I'm Esteb Herngin, and this is America Actually.

每周六请在YouTube或者你听播客的平台收听我们的节目。

Catch us every Saturday on YouTube or wherever you get your podcast.

一切始于那首《叫我名字》。

It all started with Call Me Maybe.

十多年前，我们创办了《流行音乐解码》，就是为了更仔细地聆听，揭开那些最光鲜的流行歌曲背后的创作奥秘。

Over ten years ago, we created Switched On Pop to listen closer, uncovering the song craft behind even the glossiest of pop hits.

从那以后，我们已经推出了将近五百期节目。

Since then, we've released almost 500 episodes.

我们定义了这个时代的声音图谱，采访了数百位音乐人和业内专家，包括《叫我名字》的原唱卡莉·蕾·杰普森本人。

We've defined the sounds of our modern soundtrack and interviewed hundreds of musicians and music insiders, including the singer of Call Me Maybe herself, Carly Rae Jepsen.

我是音乐学家内特·斯隆。

I'm musicologist Nate Sloan.

我是词曲作者查理·哈丁。

And I'm songwriter Charlie Harding.

7月14日，《Switched On Pop》将开启新篇章。

And on July 14, Switched on Pop is embarking on a new chapter.

我们将走出录音棚，走到镜头前，在Netflix上直播我们的播客。

We're stepping out from behind our microphones and in front of the camera to stream our podcast on Netflix.

当然，你依然可以

Now, you'll still be able

在任何听播客的地方收听节目，但现在你每周还能看到我们剖析当下热门歌曲的音乐细节，和你喜爱的音乐人深入探讨创作奥秘，顺便继续讲那些不怎么好笑的爸爸冷笑话。

to listen to the show anywhere you get podcasts, but now you'll be able to watch us each week breaking down the sounds of the moment, digging into musical minutiae with your favorite artists, and offering questionable dad jokes as always.

我们首期Netflix系列将聚焦歌曲创作的艺术，邀请了亚伦·德斯纳、奥德丽·霍巴特、特雷弗·霍恩、西普雷斯山以及

We're kicking off our Netflix debut with a four part series on the art of the song with help from artists, producers, and songwriters like Aaron Dessner, Audrey Hobart, Trevor Horn, Cypress Hill, and

泰勒·帕克斯等音乐人共同参与。

Taylor Parks.

从7月14日起，每周二登陆Netflix和各大播客平台，收看《Switched On Pop》。

Stream Switched On Pop on Netflix and anywhere you get podcasts every Tuesday starting on July 14.

我们继续回到《Prof G 市场》。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

迈克，当别人问你成功的秘诀是什么时，我该怎么回答呢？可能有些人还不太了解，你可是有着很长的一串成就。

Mike, when I ask people what the secret was to your success, And just for people who don't know, I mean, it goes there's a long track record here.

你之前就做出了一个了不起的AI押注，现在终于收获了回报。

You before I mean, now you've made this incredible AI bet that is paying off.

你当初押注加密货币，也赢了。

You had the crypto bet that paid off.

你还创办了银河数字公司。

You started Galaxy Digital.

你在高盛工作了很长时间。

You worked at Goldman for a long time.

1998年你就成了合伙人。

You made partner by 1998.

再往前，你是普林斯顿大学摔跤队的队长，我自己也是普林斯顿毕业的，为老虎队加油！还当过新泽西国民警卫队的直升机飞行员。

Before that, you were the captain of the Princeton wrestling team, Princeton alone myself, go tigers, helicopter pilot in the New Jersey National Guard.

你这一路真是相当了不起。

Like, you've had a pretty incredible track record.

他正推出一款叫‘睾酮’的香水。

He's launching a cologne called testosterone.

天哪。

Jesus Christ.

所以我的问题是，天啊。

So my my question Fucking a.

是的。

Yeah.

这履历真是没得说。

It's it's a good it's a good it's a good resume.

当我问别人，诺沃成功的秘诀是什么，我总听到同样的回答。

My so when I when I ask people, like, what is the secret to Novo, They I always hear the same thing.

每个人都说，诺沃的风险承受能力，是我见过的最一贯、最独特的。

Everyone tells me Novo has a risk tolerance unlike anyone I've ever seen consistently.

这种心态是从哪儿来的？

Where does that come from?

讽刺的是，一开始是因为害怕失败。

The irony is it start off with fear of failure.

本来是希望表现得很好的。

Was supposed to do well.

小时候长得挺可爱的。

Born a cute little kid.

我妈说，我将来一定会当上参议员。

My mom told me I was gonna be the senator one day.

所以我一直背负着巨大的成功压力。

So I had felt all this pressure to succeed.

这其实阻碍了我很多早期的发展。

Actually it stopped a lot of early success.

我觉得，要是当时没那么紧张，我的摔跤生涯可能会更出色。

I think my wrestling career would've might've been better if I wasn't so nervous all the time.

后来几次失败后，我发现我也没死，反而对失败的恐惧完全反转了。

And then having failed a couple times and realized I didn't die, there was kind of the opposite of fear of failure.

就是觉得，嘿，不如放手一搏。

It was like, Hey, let's go for it.

咱们玩点有意思的。

Let's have some fun.

我确实挺能扛风险的， partly 因为我成长在一个很好的家庭，穷的时候和中产时我都特别开心，当兵那会儿月薪一万八，那几年反而是我最开心的时光。

And I do have a high risk tolerance, partly, you know, I grew up in a great family and I was really happy when I was poor or middle class, I went to the army, I made $18,000 Those are my, some of my most fun years.

所以我现在花很多钱，也享受其中，但从来不会太把它当回事。

And so while I spend a ton of money and I have fun with it, I was never attached to it as much.

说实话，我骨子里还是不想失败，但那不再是害怕失败了。

So listen, there's still a, I don't want to fail gene in me, but it's not the fear of it.

我也不怕出丑。

And I don't have the fear of looking stupid.

也许这源于我妈一直给我满满的爱吧，反正我就是不怕出丑。

And maybe that's coming from confidence of having been raised by a loving mother or whatever, but but I don't have the fear of looking stupid.

我确实出过几次洋相。

And I've looked stupid a few times.

现在我身上纹了个Luna的纹身，结果Luna直接归零了。

Now I've got a Luna tattoo and Luna went to zero.

我看起来肯定没你想象中那么体面。

I'd like certainly have looked less than you'd like to.

但这真没让我多害怕。

That doesn't scare me so much.

我就跟大家说，嘿，我上了这艘船。

I'm like, hey guys, I got on this thing.

我们还真靠这个赚了钱。

We actually made money on it.

世界照样转了个圈。

And the world turned.

我觉得这种底气，可能小时候就慢慢有了，不然你只会一直纠结：别人怎么看我？

And so I do think it comes from some confidence that you get as a young kid because that, otherwise you're gonna sit there and it's always, what do people think about me?

只要你不再纠结别人怎么看你，心里就能踏实下来。

If you get away from what people think about you and say, Hey, all right.

我以前在电视上也这么说过。

And I used to say it on TV.

我过去总是认真听员工的意见。

I used listen to my employees.

我说过，你们加入这家公司冒了很大风险，毕竟加密货币可能失败，你们搭上的是人生中最宝贵的几年。

I said, You guys are taking a lot of risk joining this company because crypto might not work and you're gonna have taken your great years of your life.

我说，我呢，已经有钱了，风险小得多。

I said, oh, I'm risking, I already have money.

我冒的是名声的风险。

I'm risking reputation.

我可能会被人当成笑话。

I'm gonna look like a complete idiot.

但我愿意承担这个后果。

I'm willing to do that.

但对我来说，这种风险远小于那些28岁、正处于事业核心阶段的人，他们得花六年时间投身这个奇怪的行业。

But that hit me on my mind was less risk than the 28 year old who's at that core of their career saying, I'm gonna spend the next six years in this weird industry.

我很高兴看到很多人最终得到了回报。

And I'm happy for lots of people it paid off.

是的，我觉得对这个行业里的大多数人来说，这段经历本身就已经足够有价值，让他们觉得没白费，但我觉得五年后，这个行业里大概不会再是同一拨人了，对吧？

Yeah, I think the journey itself was good enough for most people in this industry to feel like it wasn't a waste, but I don't think you'll have the same people in this industry in the next five years, right?

他们会把学到的技能用到别的地方去。

They'll take those skills and do other things.

我想先停一下，说点别的。

I just wanna pause on that.

高盛、军队、市值数十亿美元的公司、普林斯顿，而你刚才说的那句话让我特别触动——如果你回溯自己的自信，最终会发现它源自一位充满爱的母亲。

Goldman Sachs, Army, multibillion dollar firm, Princeton, and what you said that really struck me is that if you reverse engineer your own confidence, you reverse engineer it to a loving mother.

我想让你就停在这里，但能不能再聊聊你的父母？

I want you to end here, but I just want you to talk a little bit about your parents.

是的，我出身于一个中产家庭。

Yeah, listen, I have a middle class family.

我爸爸刚去世，办葬礼的时候，我们写讣告，兄弟姐妹们说，他做过这个、那个。

My dad just passed and we were at his funeral and we were like, when we were writing his obituary, some of the siblings were saying, well, he did this.

他是个典型的美国普通人。

He was an all American.

最后讣告写的不是他做过什么，而是他是个怎样的人。

And the obituary really became who he was, not what he did.

我有个非常坚定的父亲，我从没拿他跟特朗普比较过。

And so I had a really strong, dad who I don't think I was comparing him to Trump.

我爸爸五十年来都没犯过七宗罪里的任何一条。

I don't think my dad has broken one of the seven deadly sins in fifty years.

他就是家里的道德支柱。

He was a very kind of moral center.

我妈妈则充满理想，总是给我们打气，我们一共有七个孩子。

And I had a mom who was really aspirational and a cheerleader, and there were seven of us.

她曾经当过服务员，就是为了能继续做古董生意。

She worked as a waitress at one point, you know, to kind of keep selling antiques.

她是个实干家，从皇后区打拼出来的。

She was a hustler, escaped from Queens.

她现在还健在，精神头儿一点不减。

She's still alive and is still going strong.

我们家就是那种典型的70年代美国军人家庭。

And, we just had that kind of idyllic 1970s American military family.

我妈总跟我们说，你们能成就任何事。

My mom always told us that we can be the world.

我觉得她希望我们能像肯尼迪家族那样。

I think she thought we should be the Kennedys.

我妹妹叫杰姬，弟弟叫罗布，名字里带鲍比，我叫迈克尔·约翰，名字都挺像的，但那就是那个年代的风气。

I mean, named my sister Jackie, my brother Rob Bobby, I was Michael John, we have similar names, but it was that era.

她到现在还是我们全家，连孙子孙女们，最铁杆的啦啦队长。

And she's still a big cheerleader to all of us and all the grandkids.

我爸下葬那天，最让人动容的是，灵柩缓缓穿过小岛，身后跟着二十三个孙子孙女。

Dad's funeral, the telling point was there was the caskets going down the island, there are 23 grandkids walking behind it.

这种大家庭的传承，现在在美国已经不多见了，但正因为有这种背景，你才敢去冒更大的险。

And that legacy of big family, you don't have that as much in America anymore, but it does allow you to take more risk.

因为你心里清楚，就算你搞砸了，也总会有人站出来支持你。

Because you know there's some people you're gonna screw up and they're gonna like, you know, have your back.

你要是成功了，他们反而会拿你开涮，对吧？

And when you do well, they're gonna take the shit out of you, right?

姐妹多、家庭大的环境，根本容不下谁自以为是。

Like, you know, and sisters and big families don't allow you to be special.

我正好想到一个相关的趣事。

So just one one anecdote that is related.

我之前和你妹妹杰奎琳一起做播客，我用我一贯那种愤世嫉俗、情绪低落的语气聊了点事。

I was doing a podcast with your sister, Jacqueline, and I was talking about something in my my usual cynical depressed manner.

她突然停了下来，盯着我看，不是那种温柔关心的眼神，就是那么看着我，然后说：我觉得你特别需要一个拥抱。

She just kinda stopped, and she said to me she looked at me in in not a in a sincere way, she just looked at me and she said, I get the sense you could really use a hug.

那句话真的让我一下子愣住了。

And it was so arresting.