英伟达的爆发性增长难平AI焦虑

本节目由VCX赞助，VCX是私营科技公司的公开股票代码。

Support for the show comes from VCX, the public ticker for private tech.

美国股市开启了历史上最伟大的财富创造浪潮。

The US stock market started history's greatest wave of wealth creation.

从底特律的工厂工人到奥马哈的农民，任何人都能拥有美国伟大公司的股份。

From factory workers in Detroit to farmers in Omaha, anyone could own a piece of the great American companies.

但如今，我们最具创新性的公司长期保持私有状态，这意味着普通美国人直到现在才得以参与。

But today, our most innovative companies are staying private longer, which means everyday Americans are missing out until now.

隆重推出VCX，私营科技公司的公开股票代码。

Introducing VCX, a public ticker for private tech.

访问getvcx.com获取更多信息。

Visit getvcx.com for more info.

那就是getvcx.com。

That's getvcx.com.

投资前请仔细考虑投资材料，包括投资目标、费用和风险。

Carefully consider the investment materials before investing, including objectives, risk charges, and expenses.

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This and other information can be found in the fund's prospectus at getvcx.com.

这是一则付费赞助内容。

This is a paid sponsorship.

当事情变得艰难时，你会怎么跟自己说话？

When things get hard, how do you talk to yourself?

我是拉维纳杰·索恩，Peloton 健身项目副总裁兼首席教练。

I'm Ravinaj Son, VP of fitness programming and head instructor at Peloton.

本周，我在我的新播客《Project Swagger》中分享了如何建立更积极的自我对话的策略。

And this week on my new podcast, project swagger, I'm sharing my strategies for how to build better self talk.

是时候学会与自己成为朋友了。

It's time to work on befriending yourself.

请在您收听播客的平台关注《Project Swagger》。

Follow Project Swagger wherever you get your podcasts.

我是梅根·拉皮诺。

Megan Rapinoe here.

本周在《再多一点》节目中，我们为每个人准备了内容。

This week on a touch more, we've got something for everyone.

我们将讨论美国女运动员在奥运会上获得的奖牌数超过男性，美国女足国家队即将参加她相信杯的阵容，以及WNBA劳资协议谈判的最新进展。

We're talking about The US women Olympians taking home more medals than the men, the US women's national team roster heading into the She Believes Cup, and the latest on the WNBA CBA negotiations.

请在您收听播客的平台或YouTube上收听《再多一点》的最新一期。

Check out the latest episode of a touch more wherever you get your podcasts and on YouTube.

今天的数字是二。

Today's number, two.

这是比尔·盖茨在为他与杰弗里·爱泼斯坦的关系道歉后，承认与俄罗斯女性发生过的关系数量。

That's how many affairs with Russian women Bill Gates admitted to have had after he apologized for his ties to Jeffrey Epstein.

这位微软创始人表示，他‘没有做过任何非法的事’，也‘没有见过任何非法的事’，并且‘从未与身边的女性共度时光’。

The Microsoft founder says he, quote, did nothing illicit and saw nothing illicit, and that he, quote, never spent any time with the women around him.

今天的另一个数字是零。

Today's other number is zero.

这是相信他的人数。

That's how many people believe him.

货币市场疯了。

Money market's mad.

如果钱是邪恶的，那么那栋楼就是地狱。

If money is evil, then that building is hell.

节目开播了。

Show goes up.

那些人根本不看节目销售情况。

The guys are not watching show sales.

欢迎来到Frafty市场。

Welcome to Frafty Markets.

我是埃德·埃尔森。

I'm Ed Elson.

今天是2月26日。

It is February 26.

我们来回顾一下昨天的市场关键数据。

Let's check-in on yesterday's market vitals.

主要指数在英伟达财报公布前上涨。

The major indices climbed ahead of NVIDIA's earnings.

稍后会详细介绍这一点。

More on that in a moment.

比特币从近期低点反弹，回升至7万美元附近。

Bitcoin bounced from recent lows rallying back towards 70,000.

黄金、白银和铂金的价格均有所上涨。

The price of gold, silver, and platinum increased.

最后，奈飞股价上涨6%，创下一年多来最佳单日表现。

And finally, Netflix rose 6% in its best day in more than a year.

这一涨势是在报道称派拉蒙的新报价可能足以赢得对华纳兄弟探索的竞购战之后出现的。

That rally followed reports that Paramount's new offer may be good enough to win the bidding war for Warner Brothers Discovery.

好的。

Okay.

还有其他什么消息吗？

What else is happening?

全球最有价值的公司英伟达昨日公布了财报，其营收和利润均超出预期。

The world's most valuable company, NVIDIA, reported earnings yesterday that beat expectations on the top and bottom lines.

这主要得益于数据中心收入，本季度同比增长了75%。

That was largely driven by data center revenue, which rose 75% year over year in the quarter.

本季度的营收预测也高于投资者的预期。

Revenue projections for the current quarter also came in higher than investors had expected.

英伟达股价在盘后交易中一度上涨了5%，但随后在电话会议期间有所回落。

NVIDIA stock rose as much as 5% after hours, but then moderated during the call.

Salesforce 昨日也发布了财报，但其结果却截然不同。

Salesforce also reported yesterday, but those earnings had a very different outcome.

该公司在财年第四季度的收入增长了12%，这是两年来最快的增长率。

The company's revenue grew 12 in the fiscal fourth quarter, which was its fastest growth rate in two years.

然而，投资者对该公司2026年的营收指引感到失望。

However, investors were disappointed with the company's revenue guidance for 2026.

这导致其股价在盘后交易中下跌了近6%。

That sent the stock down nearly 6% after hours.

今天我们邀请到DA Davidson科技研究主管吉尔·卢里亚，来为我们解读这些财报。

Joining us to unpack these earnings, we are speaking with Gil Luria, head of technology research at DA Davidson.

吉尔，很高兴见到你。

Gil, good to see you.

我想先聊聊英伟达。

I wanna start with NVIDIA here.

又是一个惊人的超强季度。

Another incredible monster quarter.

这种情况一直在持续。

This keeps on happening.

每个人都以为会出现问题，大家都很焦虑，结果却又是不可思议的季度。

Everyone thinks that we're gonna see an issue, and everyone gets very anxious, and then just an unbelievable quarter.

你最初的反应是什么？

Your initial reactions.

这不仅令人难以置信，而且确实如此。

Well, not only is it and it is unbelievable.

这些数字简直令人震惊，尤其是对于一家已经如此盈利的公司来说，还能持续保持如此高的增长率。

The numbers are just getting staggering, especially for a company that's so profitable to be able to grow at these rates continuously.

但除此之外，他们还表示今年剩余时间将继续实现环比增长。

But beyond that, they just said they're going to grow sequentially for the rest of the year.

他们通常不会给出超过一个季度的指引。

They don't typically give more than one quarter out.

因此，他们能有如此高的可见性，并谈到2027年日历年的前景，说明他们的前瞻性比以往任何时候都更强。

So the fact that they have that visibility and talked about that going into calendar 2027, tells you that they have more visibility than ever.

他们的客户正在做出比以往更长期的承诺。

Their customers are making longer term commitments than ever.

他们能清晰看到数据中心的部署正以如此快的速度推进，且积压订单如此之多，因此他们确信未来将继续保持增长，这尤其令人印象深刻，尤其是在数字已经如此庞大的情况下。

They can see the rollout of the data centers happening at such a rate and with such a backlog that they know that they'll be able to continue to grow from here on out, which is, again, very impressive, especially when the numbers are this big.

这对所谓的AI泡沫故事意味着什么？我不确定现在还能不能称之为AI泡沫。

What does this mean for the I I don't know if I could call it AI bubble story at this point.

也许我们得改称它为AI焦虑故事了。

The the AI anxiety story, maybe we have to call it.

我的意思是，我们看到了本周发布的Citirini研究文章，让所有人都对AI感到非常焦虑。

I mean, we saw the Citrini Research article that came out this week and got everyone very anxious about AI.

我们看到了软件行业出现了惊人的下跌，同样是因为AI。

We've seen just incredible drawdowns in the software sector, again, because of AI.

这对AI故事意味着什么？

What does this do to the AI story?

在英伟达持续占据主导地位的情况下，投资者现在如何看待这个问题？

How are investors thinking about this now that NVIDIA continues to dominate?

嗯，有两种不同类型的焦虑，而且它们实际上是完全相反的。

Well, there's two different types anxiety, and they're actually the polar opposite of each other.

一种焦虑是，天哪，我们正在建设这么多数据中心。

One level of anxiety is, oh my goodness, we're building so many data centers.

这不可能持续下去。

This can't be sustainable.

一旦停止，音乐就会停止。

When it stops, the music's gonna stop.

经济将会下滑。

The economy's gonna decline.

英伟达也会下滑。

Nvidia's gonna decline.

这些巨头公司和超大规模云服务商负担不起这样的开支。

The mega caps, the hyperscalers can't afford to do this.

这种焦虑我们已经持续了几个月。

That's one level of anxiety that we've been living with for a few months.

另一种焦虑则完全相反。

The other level of anxiety is the exact opposite.

天哪。

Oh my goodness.

人工智能太强大了。

AI is so potent.

它会把我们彻底淹没。

It's gonna run us over.

它会一个行业接一个行业地席卷并摧毁它们。

It's gonna go industry by industry and destroy it.

软件公司的股票在它们的终值上毫无价值。

And software stocks are worth nothing at at their terminal value.

这两件事是截然相反的。

These are those two things are opposite.

要么你相信人工智能很棒，是的。

Either you believe AI is great Mhmm.

它将在两年内彻底改变经济；要么你认为人工智能没那么厉害，我们会停止建设数据中心。

And it's gonna transform the economy in two years, Or you believe that AI isn't that good and we're gonna stop building data centers.

这两种想法代表了两种截然不同的焦虑。

Those two things are opposite types of anxiety.

我们认为，你知道，我这一生经历了很多焦虑，但我们可以深吸一口气，说这两种观点都太过极端了。

And we think that, you know, I've lived with a lot of anxiety in my life, but we we can take a deep breath and say both of those things are pretty extreme perspectives.

我们所知道的是，人工智能具有极高的价值。

What we do know is that AI is incredibly valuable.

这是一种非常强大的技术，我们才刚刚开始意识到它对商业客户和消费者有多么有用。

It's very potent technology that we are just starting to realize how useful it is to both business customers as well as consumers.

商业客户愿意做出长期承诺，这就是微软、亚马逊和谷歌正在建设这些数据中心的原因，因为他们有这些长期承诺。

Business customers are willing to make long term commitments, which is why Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are building these data centers, because they have these long term commitments.

而消费者也愿意为这些订阅服务支付越来越多的费用，并以更全面的方式使用这些工具。

And consumers are willing to pay more and more for these subscriptions and and using these tools in an even more comprehensive way.

我们知道这种情况正在发生。

We know that's happening.

因此，对人工智能的担忧并不真实，我们也不需要这些数据中心。

So the anxiety about AI isn't real and we don't need these data centers.

英伟达可以通过告诉我们：看，这些数据中心的建设将继续进行，来帮助我们放下这种担忧。

NVIDIA can help us put that aside by telling us, look, this data center construction is gonna continue.

对于人工智能发展太快、所有人都将失业的担忧，我们也可以深呼吸一下，认识到：在那些深受人工智能影响的软件工程师，和未来几十年内几乎不会被人工智能影响的护士之间，存在着巨大差异。

On the anxiety of AI is happening too fast and everybody's gonna be unemployed, we can also take a deep breath about that and say, somewhere between software engineers that that can that are very much impacted by AI and nurses that are probably not gonna be impacted by AI for in decades.

我们还有其他所有职业。

We have all the other professions.

是的，AI将会逐步影响每一个职业，但不会同时影响所有职业。

And yes, AI is gonna impact every single profession in that progression, but not all at once.

有些职业比其他职业更容易受到影响。

Some professions are more susceptible than others.

它们会发生变化。

They will change.

围绕这些职业的招聘也会发生变化。

The hiring around those will change.

那些不再适应原有职业的人会转向其他职业。

People that no longer fit in that profession will move to the other professions.

这种变化不会在两年内发生。

This is not gonna happen in a two year time frame.

这类文章属于科幻小说。

Those types of essays are science fiction.

它们是末日色情内容。

They are doomer porn.

我们可以把那些事情放一边，专注于眼前的东西，那是一种非常强大的技术，能够推动生产率增长，这是好事。

We can we can put them aside and and just focus on what's in front of us, which is a very powerful technology that could drive productivity growth, which is a good thing.

它将帮助提升我们劳动的价值，让我们赚得更多。

It'll help increase the value of our labor, which will get us paid more.

它将帮助我们的公司更快增长，从而雇佣更多人。

It'll help our companies grow faster so they can hire more.

相比那些极端令人担忧的情景，这种情况更有可能发生。

That's the more likely scenario than those extreme concerning scenarios.

我认为，Salesforce和NVIDIA同一天公布的财报形成了很好的对比，这反映了你刚才提到的那些对AI的焦虑——即AI会如此强大，以至于摧毁所有传统公司。

I think that the Salesforce earnings is a good sort of foil to the NVIDIA earnings both coming out the same day, which is a reflection of those AI anxieties that you just brought there, that AI is gonna be so great that it's gonna kill all of the legacy companies.

我看了Salesforce的财报，营收增长了12%。

I look at this these Salesforce earnings, revenue grew 12%.

这非常强劲。

That's very strong.

我看了未履行的绩效义务，达到350亿美元，实际上高于预期。

I looked at remaining performance obligations, $35,000,000,000, which is actually higher expected.

唯一的问题是全年的收入指引，大家都说没达到预期，但在我看来，这恰恰符合预期。

The only issue was the revenue guidance for the year, which everyone is saying was a miss, but to me, it was a meet.

他们的指引是458亿到462亿美元。

I mean, they said 45.8 to 46,200,000,000.

华尔街的预期是460亿美元。

Wall Street expected 46,000,000,000.

在我看来，这完全就是他们所说的数字。

That to me mean, that sounds like exactly what they what they said.

但盘后股价下跌了近6%。

But shares are tanking down nearly 6% after hours.

这份财报告诉你关于AI焦虑故事的什么信息？

What does that earnings tell you about the AI anxiety story?

你对这些财报怎么看？

And what do you think of these earnings?

你认为它们真有大家说的那么糟糕吗？

Do you think that they are as bad as everyone else seems to think they are?

我认为Salesforce最不重要的问题就是AI。

I think the least of Salesforce's issue is AI.

实际上，我认为Salesforce的问题在于其业务正在迅速放缓。

I actually think the issue in Salesforce force is that their business is just decelerating rapidly.

本季度的增长率较高，是因为他们收购了Informatica，这至少为增长率贡献了三到四个百分点。

The growth rate was higher this quarter because they acquired Informatica, which is contributing at least three or 4% to that growth rate.

所以他们现在的增长率仅保持在个位数高位。

So they're already only growing high single digits.

就在几年前，他们的增长率还是15%。

Just a couple of years ago, they were growing 15%.

他们的业务放缓是因为与AI无关的原因。

It's their business that's decelerating for reasons that have nothing to do with AI.

他们正在失去市场份额，输给HubSpot、Monday、ServiceNow、Braze、Klaviyo以及一大批提供比Salesforce更优秀销售和营销软件的公司。

They're losing share to HubSpot and Monday and ServiceNow and Braze and Klaviyo and a whole cottage industry of companies that are providing sales and marketing software that's just better than Salesforce.

话虽如此，你说得非常对，市场会抓住这一点，说：天啊，AI正在摧毁软件行业。

Having said that, what you're saying is spot on, and that the market is gonna glop onto this and say, oh my goodness, AI is killing software.

不是的。

It's not.

Salesforce只是增长放缓，业绩在下滑。

Salesforce is just decelerating and the results are declining.

今年本季度已经有不少公司公布了良好的业绩，但它们的股价还是下跌了，因为市场上存在对软件行业的负面叙事。

There's been plenty of companies that reported good results so far this quarter, but their stocks went down anyway because of this negative narrative about software.

但在Salesforce的情况下，问题根本在于其核心业务表现不佳。

But in Salesforce's case, it's really about just their core business not doing well.

是的。

Yeah.

你对当前这种AI焦虑的紧张态势怎么看？

What do you think about this the tension of this AI anxiety right now?

你提到AI的影响可能比我们预期的要小，这就是为什么它是个泡沫，导致所有公司的估值都会下降。

You mentioned there's the the AI's gonna be less impactful than the than we thought it was going to be, which is why it's a bubble, and so the valuations of everything are gonna come down.

还有另一种观点认为，AI将如此强大，以至于会摧毁我们所熟知的所有商业模式。

And then there's the other argument, which is the AI is gonna be so powerful that it's gonna ruin all the business models as we know it.

这两种力量似乎正在激烈冲突。

Those two forces seem to be in real contention with one another.

我很难判断，究竟是哪一种情绪在华尔街占主导地位，哪一种才是正确的，哪一种更荒谬。

And I'm struggling to figure out which one is actually the dominant sentiment on Wall Street, which one is actually the right sentiment, which one is crazier than the other.

很难分辨这些股票的价格此刻究竟在告诉我们什么，因为正如你所说，这是两个完全相反的故事。

And it's hard to sort of parse out what the price of these stocks are actually telling us at this point because those are two, as you say, completely opposite stories.

我认为，我们一直生活在第一种焦虑之中。

I'd say that we've been living with that first type of anxiety.

数据中心的建设在几个月内都不会有回报。

The, oh, the data center build out isn't gonna get a return for several months.

软件方面的焦虑是最近才出现的，但我认为这两种情绪目前都在市场上发挥作用，并引发了许多恐惧。

The the software anxiety is more recent, but I'd say both are playing out in the market right now and causing a lot of fear.

但我想提出，这可能与更大的问题有关。

But I would actually posit that maybe that's about something bigger.

投资者如今如此不安，很可能是因为我们经历了一段非常漫长的牛市，人们对美国政府及其政策、全球关系的地缘政治、以及每周都要变化的贸易政策感到担忧。

The fact that investors are so jittery right now is probably an indication that we've had a very long bull run, that there's concerns about the US government and its policies, the geopolitics of our global relationships, our geopolitics of our trade policy that has to change every week now.

所以我觉得市场现在很不安。

And and so I think the the market is jittery.

它在寻找坏消息。

It's looking for bad news.

现在投资者们心中有两种对立但极具说服力且令人恐惧的故事

And now we have two opposing but compelling and scary stories that investors are telling themselves

嗯。

Mhmm.

这些故事正促使他们抛售股票。

That are causing them to knock down stocks.

我认为，从整体宏观经济和地缘政治的角度来看，市场目前确实存在一种普遍的不安情绪。

I think that that there there is that layer of just overall jittery markets based on where we are from from an an overall macroeconomic and geopolitical perspective.

当我看到这种大规模抛售时，我的直觉和你类似，我觉得这似乎是过度反应。

My instinct when I see these massive sell offs is I think similar to yours, which is this seems to me an overreaction.

这在我看来情绪化严重，远未基于我们现实中看到的情况和数据，远远不够。

This seems to me highly emotional and not not nearly grounded in the reality that we're seeing on the ground and the data, not nearly enough.

同时，我也可以理解有人会说，你只是把这些担忧掩盖起来了。

At the same time, I could also see someone saying, you're just sweeping these these concerns under the rug.

对你来说，尤其是作为这个行业内的吉卢里亚，说这没什么大不了的，确实很方便。

You're it's convenient for you, especially you, Giluria, as someone who's in this industry to say it's not a big deal.

人们反应过度了。

People are overreacting.

事情会好起来的。

Things are gonna be okay.

看看科技有多高效。

Look how productive the technology is.

你对这些人会怎么说？

What would you say to those people?

我确实不是在试图掩盖任何问题。

That I'm I'm really not trying to sweep anything under the rug.

我在说的是，我们所有人都必须对可能的结果做出有权重的概率判断。

I'm talking about we all have to make weighted probability decisions about potential outcomes.

我只是说，我们过度建设数据中心的可能性是10%。

I'm just saying the we're overbuilding data centers is a 10% outcome.

人工智能在未来两年内将主导一切，这种可能性也是10%。

The AI is gonna run everything over in the next two years is a 10% outcome.

而有80%的可能性，这两件糟糕的事都不会发生。

And there's an 80% outcome that neither of those terrible things is gonna happen.

嗯哼。

Mhmm.

如果是这样，我们就需要看看有哪些值得投资的机会。

And if that's the case, we need to look at what the investable opportunities are.

其中一个就是英伟达。

So one of them is NVIDIA

对。

Right.

英伟达的市盈率是25倍，而AMD和博通的市盈率是32倍，但它们的业务并不更好。

Trading at 25 times when AMD and Broadcom are trading at 32 times with not as good of a business.

软件公司多年来一直以收入倍数估值，这从来就很荒谬。

Software, which for years traded on revenue multiples, which was always ridiculous.

所谓六倍收入或八倍收入，到底意味着什么？

What what does it even mean to be six times revenue or eight times revenue?

这毫无意义。

That means nothing.

股东只关心现金流。

Shareholders only get cash flows.

一家公司的价值，仅仅取决于其未来的现金流。

The value of a company is only the value of their future cash flows.

突然间，我们开始从现金流和盈利的角度来审视这个庞大的软件公司群体。

All of a sudden, we're looking at this big universe of software companies on a cash flow basis, on an earnings basis.

微软的现金流倍数是20倍。

We have Microsoft at 20 times cash flow.

ServiceNow、Dynatrace 和 Adobe 的市盈率或现金流倍数都低于20倍。

We have ServiceNow and Dynatrace and Adobe trading at less than 20 times earnings or cash flow.

我们还有像Snowflake、Datadog和Shopify这样的超高速增长公司，它们的现金流倍数可能达到35倍。

And we have super hyper growth companies like Snowflake and Datadog and Shopify trading at maybe 35 times cash flow.

因此，这些确实是市场因极端情境所创造的实际投资机会。

So those are actual real opportunities that the market has created because of the extreme scenarios.

但我并不想把它们掩盖起来。

But I don't wanna I don't wanna sweep them under the rug.

它们是潜在的情景。

They are potential scenarios.

我只是在权衡可能性和概率，我认为有80%的可能性我们会安然无恙，AI将以提升生产力的方式让软件公司变得更好，尤其是软件领域的领先企业。

I'm just taking the weight and probability and saying, I think there's 80% right up the middle that we're gonna be fine, that AI enhances productivity in a way that makes software companies better, especially winners in software.

并不是每一家软件公司都如此。

Not every software company.

会有很多软件公司失败。

There'll be plenty of software companies that fail.

但优秀的公司会胜出，而且它们现在的估值比以往任何时候都更具吸引力。

But the good ones will win, and those are more attractively priced than they've ever been.

好的。

Alright.

吉尔·卢里亚，DA Davidson科技研究主管。

Gil Luria, head of technology research at DA Davidson.

吉尔，感谢你为我们做此解析。

Gil, thank you for taking us through this.

谢谢。

Thank you.

广告后，听听特朗普国情咨文中没提到的内容。

After the break, what you didn't hear in Trump's State of the Union.

如需获取更多市场洞察，欢迎订阅我的每周通讯《Simply Put》，地址是 edward elson dot substack dot com。

And for even more markets insights, you can subscribe to my weekly newsletter, simply put, at edward elson dot substack dot com.

嗨。

Hey.

这里是卡拉·斯威舍。

Kara Swisher here.

我想通知大家，Vox Media 将重返德克萨斯州奥斯汀的西南偏南大会，进行您喜爱播客的现场录制。

I wanna let you know that Vox Media is returning to South by Southwest in Austin for live tapings of your favorite podcast.

请在3月13日至15日期间加入我们，现场录制《今日解析》《Tuffy Talks》《Prof G 市场》以及当然还有您最爱的两档播客《Pivot》和《On with Kara Swisher》。

Join us from March 13 through the fifteenth for live tapings of Today Explained, Tuffy Talks, Prof G Markets, and of course, your two favorite podcasts, Pivot and On with Kara Swisher.

舞台还将呈现由蕾妮·布朗、亚当·格兰特、马奎斯·布朗利、基思·李、维维安·图和罗宾·阿尔赞带来的精彩环节。

The stage will also feature sessions from Renee Brown and Adam Grant, Marques Brownlee, Keith Lee, Vivian Tu, and Robin Arzan.

这一切都是由Odoo冠名赞助的Vox Media播客舞台在西南偏南大会上的活动。

It's all part of the Vox Media podcast stage at South by Southwest presented by Odoo.

请访问 voxmedia.com/sxsw 预注册，获取您的创新通行证专属折扣。

Visit voxmedia.com/sxsw to preregister and get your special discount on your innovation badge.

要注册请访问 voxmedia.com/sxsw。

That's voxmedia.com/sxsw to register.

真的，您应该去注册。

Really, you should register.

活动票务常常售罄，我们期待在那里见到您。

We sell out, and we hope to see you there.

唐纳德·特朗普国情咨文中的外交政策部分主要有哪些要点？

What are the main takeaways of the foreign policy section from Donald Trump's State of the Union address?

我认为他们在中期选举临近之际，决定优先强调国内议题。

I do think they've made a decision to elevate domestic issues as we head towards the midterms.

我们会看看这个策略能否持续，因为他总是又被拉回到外交政策问题上。

We'll see if that sticks because he keeps getting drawn back to the foreign policy issues.

我是约翰·费纳。

I'm John Feiner.

我是杰克·苏利文，我们是每周一期的国家安全播客《长远博弈》的主持人。

And I'm Jake Sullivan, and we're the hosts of The Long Game, a weekly national security podcast.

本周，我们将对特朗普总统的国情咨文、伊朗局势以及墨西哥贩毒集团暴力事件的升级做出回应。

This week, we'll react to president Trump's state of the union address, the situation with Iran, and the eruption of violence involving cartels in Mexico.

这一期已经发布了。

The episode's out now.

请在您收听播客的平台搜索并关注《长远博弈》。

Search for and follow the long game wherever you get your podcasts.

本周在《财富与放松》节目中，我邀请到了Her First 100的创始人托里·邓洛普，她是一位正在改变整个世代对金钱认知的个人理财创作者。

This week on Net Worth and Chill, I'm joined by Her First 100, aka Tori Dunlop, a fellow personal finance creator who's changing how an entire generation thinks about money.

托里的经历堪称将个人理财的成就转化为赋能数百万人平台的典范。

Tori's journey is a master class in turning personal finance wins into a platform that empowers millions.

她坦诚分享了在没有典型特权阶层误导建议的情况下，如何实现六位数财务目标的真实策略，以及她如何重新定义2026年‘富有女性’的含义。

She opens up about the real strategy behind hitting that 6 figure milestone without the typical privileged blind advice and how she's redefining what it means to be a wealthy woman in 2026.

我们将深入探讨适合普通人、有实际预算的投资策略，并说明为什么财务女性主义不仅仅是一个流行词，而是一场运动。

We're diving deep into investment strategies for real people with real budgets and why financial feminism isn't just a buzzword, it's a movement.

准备好迎接一场关于金钱、创业以及真正构建个人财富与商业帝国所需付出的坦诚对话吧。

Get ready for an unfiltered conversation about money, entrepreneurship, and what it really takes to build both personal wealth and a business empire.

你可以在任何播客平台收听，或在youtube.com/you'rerichbff观看视频。

Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch on youtube.com/you'rerichbff.

我们回到Profty Markets。

We're back with Profty Markets.

在历史上最长的国情咨文演讲中，特朗普总统称国家实现了‘前所未有的转折’。

In the longest state of the union address in history, president Trump said the nation has achieved, quote, a turnaround for the ages.

他赞扬了经济的强劲，声称通货膨胀正在急剧下降。

He celebrated the strength of the economy, claiming that inflation is, quote, plummeting.

这并不真实。

It's not true.

而且收入正在迅速增长。

And incomes are rising fast.

特朗普还谈到了一些新举措，包括特朗普投资账户以及要求大型科技公司自行承担电力成本的承诺。

Trump also touched on new initiatives, including the Trump investment accounts and a pledge to make big tech cover its own electricity needs.

尽管国内议题主导了演讲，特朗普也简要提及了外交政策。

While domestic issues dominated the speech, Trump did briefly touch on foreign policy as well.

他声称自己结束了八场战争，并警告伊朗正在重建其核武器计划。

He claimed that he's ended eight wars and warned that Iran is rebuilding its nuclear weapons program.

他还简要承认了最高法院作出的、将关税裁定为非法的‘不幸裁决’。

He also briefly acknowledged the, quote, unfortunate ruling from the Supreme Court that deemed the tariffs illegal.

就在当天早些时候，他的新10%全球关税税率正式生效。

Earlier that day, his new 10% global tariff rate officially went into effect.

因此，今天我们邀请到欧亚集团的创始人兼总裁伊恩·布雷默，来讨论国情咨文。

So here to discuss the state of the union, we're speaking with Ian Bremmer, founder and president of Eurasia Group.

伊恩，感谢您做客我们的节目，讨论房地产市场。

Ian, thank you for joining us on property markets.

抱歉，我说错了。

My bad.

这次国情咨文，特朗普发表了长达107分钟的讲话，创下了纪录。

So this state of the union, Trump spoke for a record hundred and seven minutes.

这里的内容非常丰富，值得深入分析。

Lots to unpack here.

我们先从您的初步反应说起吧。

Let's just start with your initial reactions.

您印象最深的是什么？

What stood out to you?

我算的是108分钟，不过可能我们计时的起点和终点不一样？

I had a hundred eight minutes, but I mean, you know, we might have started and stopped the time, or is it different points?

你永远猜不到。

You never know.

演讲非常长，但没什么新内容。

It was very long, and there wasn't much new there.

我的意思是，委内瑞拉反对派的一位高层成员，一个在民主政府中具有公信力的人，竟然被释放了，紧接着就在国会大厦现场被介绍给他的家人，这真是出人意料。

I mean, there was a surprise that a a high level member of the Venezuelan opposition and someone that would be credible in a democratically elected government released, and then surprised right there, introduced to his family on right there in in the Capitol Building.

这确实是个相当重要的事件。

That was a pretty big deal, frankly.

我的意思是，这不只是像电影里的情节。

I mean, wasn't just cinematic.

这确实是特朗普政府的一项成就，也是对专制政权的一次胜利。

It is an actual success of the Trump administration, and it's a success for for an attack against an authoritarian regime.

这背后是自由与民主的力量。

There's like forces of liberty and freedom.

任何一位美国总统如果做了这样的事，人们都会称赞他。

This is the kind of thing that any American president, if they had done, you would say good on them.

所以，是的，我必须为美国冰球队赢得金牌感到兴奋。

So and and, yeah, I gotta be excited about having the American hockey team win the gold.

我记得在温哥华观看金牌赛时，那时美国和加拿大队关系还不错，那是我一生中经历过的最激动人心的体育赛事之一。

I'm I remember being in Vancouver, for the gold medal match back when the Americans and the Canadians liked each other, and it was one of the most exciting sporting events I've ever been to in my life.

我其实并不喜欢冰球，但当时每个人都在现场激动不已。

I don't even like hockey, but everyone was so excited to be there.

坦白说，美国人也为加拿大人的到场感到高兴，因为归根结底，加拿大人对冰球的热情更高。

And frankly, the Americans were pretty happy for the Canadians were there because they're pretty more excited they're more excited about about hockey at the end of the day.

但看到他们在那场惊心动魄的加时赛胜利后凯旋归来，真是太棒了——那场比赛本可能朝任何一方倾斜，而他们当时兴奋地回家，首先作为运动员，他们高举国旗，为自己是美国人而自豪，所有人都在为他们欢呼，那景象真令人振奋。

But but it was great to see them come home after that extraordinary overtime win that could have easily gone the other way, and there they were, and excited, and they're athletes first and foremost, and they're flying the flag, and they're proud to be Americans, and everyone was cheering them, and that was great to see.

但我的确是从美好的时刻开始讲的。

But I mean, I'm obviously starting with the good moments.

没错，因为你知道，之后就没多少值得提的事了。

Right, because, you know, after that, there wasn't a lot.

没什么值得提的。

There wasn't a lot.

经济状况不佳。

The economy is not doing well.

特朗普无法凭意志改变这一点。

Trump cannot will it so.

这是Prof G Markets频道。

This is Prof G Markets.

你知道的。

You know that.

普通美国人对经济现状并不满意。

The average American is not happy about where the economy is.

在这方面，特朗普的支持率很低。

Trump is underwater on that.

尽管我们已经谈论了好几个星期，但他根本没有提到埃普斯坦。

He didn't mention Epstein even though it's been what we've been talking about for weeks now.

拉里·萨默斯正被迫离开哈佛。

Larry Summers is being forced out of Harvard.

他显然不想去。

He clearly did not wanna go.

他又是踢又是喊。

He was kicking and screaming.

有很多民主党人正陷入麻烦。

There are a lot of Democrats that are getting in trouble.

那为什么特朗普对此却一字不提呢？

So why is it that Trump is actually not saying a word about this?

而且这

And it's

因为这是一个双轨司法体系。

because it's a two tier judicial system.

他是在保护自己。

He's protecting himself.

他是在保护他的内阁成员和朋友们。

He's protecting his members of his cabinet, his friends.

这对他也明显不受欢迎。

And that's clearly unpopular for him too.

距离中期选举只剩下不到几个月了。

And there are only so many more months to go before midterm elections.

如果选举今天举行，共和党将会遭到惨败，而他心里清楚这一点。

And if those elections were today, the Republicans would get thumped pretty badly, and he knows it.

他心里清楚这一点。

He knows it.

所以，这番演讲对他来说并不容易。

So this was not an easy speech to give.

对于一个只有有限机会能面对公众、真正向他们解释为何需要为他以及十一月 ballot 上代表他的候选人投票的人来说，据我看来，他昨晚并没有做多少这方面的工作。

And for someone who's only gonna have so many opportunities to be in front of the population and and really explain to them why it is they need to turn out for him and for the people that are his proxies on the ballot in November, he didn't do much of that last night in my view.

听起来我们可能意见一致，或者至少我对这次国情咨文的初步反应是这样。

It sounds like we might agree, or at least my initial reaction to this state of the in union address.

我原本预期它会非常糟糕，或者至少有些疯狂、失常。

I expected it to be or at least was waiting and preparing for it to be quite awful or at least somewhat insane, kind of unhinged.

这正是我所预期的。

That was kind of what I was expecting.

在我看来，我们看到的是一场相对正常、相对不那么疯狂的演讲，对于特朗普来说。

What we saw was a speech that was relatively normal and relatively less unhinged, in my view at least, for Trump.

我认为你提到的一点是，他有很多事情没有说，似乎他实际上是在回避所有那些对他不利的问题。

And I think one of the things that you bring up there is there was a lot that he didn't say, and it seemed that he was actually weaving around all of the things that seemed to go to be going wrong for him.

经济就是一个有趣的例子。

The economy would be an interesting one.

他有些地方 outright撒了谎，比如他说物价在下降，这根本不是事实。

There were some moments where he flat out lied about things, like when he said, you know, prices are coming down, which is just not true.

不是事实。

Not true.

那18万亿美元的外国投资，对我来说根本说不通。

The 18,000,000,000,000 in foreign investment that didn't really seem to make any sense to me.

我不知道他从哪里得出这个数字的。

I don't know where he pulled that number from.

我的意思是，他说他亲自拯救了印度和巴基斯坦的六千五百万人，这真的吗？

I mean, for me, the 65,000,000 people that he personally saved in India and Pakistan, I mean, were that true?

你说，他是不是应该当终身总统？

You know, we should he should he should be president for life?

这真是太惊人了。

That's pretty extraordinary.

当然，这完全是胡说八道。

Of course, it's utter bollocks.

所以，是的。

So, yeah.

我的意思是，公平地说，你认为这对特朗普来说是正常的，这本身就是一个重要的前提。

I mean, it it is to be fair, you're saying it's normal for Trump, and that's a that's a significant caveat.

是的。

Yes.

我认为我们应该尽量避免这种前提，是的。

I I think that we should try to avoid that caveat Yes.

因为这仍然是一个代议制民主。

Because it is still a representative democracy.

你看，他任内第一年最重要的政策被最高法院推翻了，这是他必须应对的最大问题。

Look, mean, the biggest thing he had to respond to was his signature policy for his first year was struck down by the Supreme Court.

我从未在国情咨文演讲中见过这种情况。

I've never seen that happen in the State of the Union before.

没错。

Right.

而最高法院的法官们——包括他亲自任命的那些人——都投票反对他的标志性政策，因为这项政策明显违法。

And there, the Supreme Court justices are, and people that he appointed voted against his signature policy because it was clearly illegal.

他的内阁成员也告诉他：‘先生，这是违法的。’

And he was told by members of his cabinet, this is illegal, sir.

是的。

Yes.

你不需要

You don't need

去做这件事。

to do this.

你其实可以用其他方式实施这些关税，而且不会遭到反制，但他就是不听。

You can actually do these tariffs in other ways, and you're not gonna get hit back, and he refuses to listen.

这真是纯粹的疯癫。

That is uniquely batshit crazy.

这是自摆乌龙，现在他得面对由此带来的后果。

It's an own goal, and now he's gotta deal with the consequences of that.

让他变得更弱了。

Makes him weaker.

他对此也显得很尴尬。

And he seemed quite sheepish about that as well.

他对关税问题也显得很尴尬。

He seemed quite sheepish about the tariffs.

他反复提到边境问题，却几乎完全没提关税，这很有趣，因为正如你所说，关税才是政策的核心，也是本周最大的新闻。

He was mentioning things like the border over and over again, didn't really seem to mention the tariffs at all, which is interesting because as you say, that is the centerpiece of the policy, and it's the biggest news of the week.

我也很想听听你对我们所看到的关税政策以及最高法院的决定有什么看法。

I I would also love to get your reactions to the tariff policies that we've seen, the decision from the Supreme Court.

现在我们已经有了10%的关税。

Now we've we've got the 10% tariffs.

他说他要把关税提高到15%。

He says he's going to bump it up to 15%.

对。

Right.

作为外交政策专家，这对其他国家意味着什么？

As the the the foreign policy expert, what does this mean for other nations?

这对外国政府意味着什么，如果有影响的话？

What does this mean for foreign governments, if anything?

他不想这样做的原因，除了他缺乏自律和缺乏耐心之外，是因为这让他获得了最大限度的、不受制约的单边权力，可以对任何人——不仅是任何国家，甚至几乎任何公司、任何行业——根据他任意选择的理由加征关税，而总统根本没有这样的权利。

Well, the reason he did not want to do it this way, aside from the fact that he's undisciplined and impatient, is that it gives him maximal unchecked unilateral authority to place tariffs on anyone, not only any country, but frankly, on pretty much any company, any sector, for whatever reason he chooses, which the president just doesn't have the right to do.

因为现在他仍然拥有关税权限，

Because now he still has tariff authority,

并且

and

这项关税授权绝对能让他对大多数这些国家施加几乎同等水平的关税，但这需要经过一个调查程序，允许这些国家做出回应。

that tariff authority will absolutely allow him to put these tariffs on most of these countries at pretty much the same level, but it is going through an investigative process which allows those countries to then respond.

而特朗普正是想避开这个程序，因为它对他构成了更多限制。

And that process is precisely what Trump wanted to avoid, so it constrains him more.

是的。

Yeah.

事实证明，美国总统不是习近平。

It turns out that the American president is not Xi Jinping.

他也不是弗拉基米尔·普京。

He's not Vladimir Putin.

这不仅是因为他有中期选举——尽管这是相当重要的一个因素——还因为存在一个独立的司法体系。

And it's not only because he has midterm elections, though that is one pretty significant component, but it's also because there's an independent judiciary.

而且，即使最高法院是六比三的保守派多数，即使他任命了其中好几位大法官，事实证明，他们实际上遵循的是法律，而非总统的意志。

And even if it's six three conservative, and even if he appointed a bunch of them, it turns out that they actually follow the law as opposed to the president.