英伟达称万亿规模即将到来——但市场并不买账

本节目由VCX赞助，VCX是私营科技公司的公开股票代码。

Support for the show comes from VCX, the public ticker for private tech.

美国股市开启了历史上最大规模的财富创造浪潮。

The US stock market started history's greatest wave of wealth creation.

从底特律的工厂工人到奥马哈的农民，任何人都能拥有美国伟大公司的股份。

From factory workers in Detroit to farmers in Omaha, anyone could own a piece of the great American companies.

但如今，我们最具创新性的公司长期保持私有状态，这意味着普通美国人直到现在才有机会参与。

But today, our most innovative companies are staying private longer, which means everyday Americans are missing out until now.

隆重推出VCX，私营科技公司的公开股票代码。

Introducing VCX, a public ticker for private tech.

了解更多详情，请访问getvcx.com。

Visit getvcx.com for more info.

那就是getvcx.com。

That's getvcx.com.

投资前请仔细考虑投资材料，包括投资目标、费用和风险。

Carefully consider the investment materials before investing, including objectives, risk charges, and expenses.

更多相关信息可在getvcx.com的基金招募说明书中找到。

This and other information can be found in the fund's prospectus at getvcx.com.

这是付费赞助内容。

This is a paid sponsorship.

我曾经收到过的最糟糕的建议就是：安守本分。

The worst advice I have ever gotten is stay in your lane.

我是拉比·埃尔森，运动员、高管、创始人，如果我安守本分，就会一直局限在狭小的范围内。

I am Rabbi Elson, athlete, executive, founder, and staying in my lane would have kept me small.

不要为了维护他人的舒适感而牺牲自己的成长。

Don't protect other people's comfort at the cost of your growth.

本周《Project Swagger》：我关于拥抱多重身份的策略。

This week on Project Swagger, my strategies for embracing your multi hyphenate existence.

立即在您收听播客的平台搜索《Project Swagger》收听。

Tune in now at Project Swagger wherever you get your podcasts.

如果你给某人一块饼干，他们可能会再吃三块，然后感到极度内疚。

If you give someone a cookie, they may eat three more and then feel horribly guilty.

这里有个问题，就是你是否真的做出了正确的选择，而这又说明了你是个怎样的人。

There is this, like, question about whether or not you're actually making a good choice, and what does that say about who you are as a person.

所以我们完全进入了与糖相关的道德议题中。

So we fully entered into the morality that's associated with sugar.

糖是怎么变成全民公敌的？

How did sugar become the boogeyman?

它真的像我们被引导相信的那样糟糕吗？

And is it as bad as we're led to believe?

这周就在这档节目《解释给我听》中揭晓。

That's this week on explain it to me.

新集数每周日上线，各大播客平台均可收听。

New episodes out Sundays wherever you get your podcasts.

今天的数字是8.87亿。

Today's number, 887,000,000.

据预测，华纳兄弟探索公司首席执行官大卫·扎斯洛夫在将公司出售给派拉蒙时，将获得这笔金额。

That's how many dollars Warner Brothers Discovery CEO David Zasloff is expected to receive when he sells the company to Paramount.

在他任职期间，扎斯洛夫负责了《魔力麦克：最后之舞》和《小丑2》等即时经典作品。

During his tenure, Zasloff was responsible for instant classics such as Magic Mike's Last Dance and Joker Part two.

但他将永远因其真正的巅峰成就——将Riri重新品牌为HBO Max——而被铭记。

But he will always be remembered for his true crowning achievement, Riri rebranding to HBO Max.

我的货币市场已经达标了。

My money market's met.

如果钱是邪恶的，那么那栋楼就是地狱。

If money is evil, then that building is hell.

演出继续。

Show goes on.

不看节目的代价就是销量下滑。

The price of not watching shows sell.

欢迎来到Prof G市场。

Welcome to Prof G Markets.

我是埃德·埃尔森。

I'm Ed Elson.

今天是3月18日。

It is March 18.

让我们来看看昨天的市场关键数据。

Let's check-in on yesterday's market vitals.

主要指数小幅上涨。

The major indices posted modest gains.

油价上涨，因为特朗普总统指责盟友没有帮助他应对伊朗战争并重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。

The price of oil climbed higher as president Trump slammed allies for not helping him fight the war in Iran and reopen the Strait Of Hormuz.

此外，在今天晚些时候美联储公布利率决定之前，债券收益率下降了。

And finally, bond yields fell ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision due later today.

好的。

Okay.

还有其他什么动态吗？

What else is happening?

英伟达预计到2027年，从Blackwell和Rubin芯片中获得至少1万亿美元的收入。

Nvidia expects at least $1,000,000,000,000 in revenue from Blackwell and Rubin chips through 2027.

这是该公司GTC大会的主要新闻，该大会也被称为人工智能的超级碗，本周刚刚开幕。

That is the headline news out of the company's GTC conference, also known as the Super Bowl of AI, which kicked off this week.

在周一的主题演讲中，首席执行官黄仁勋描绘了一个未来，在这个未来中，英伟达不仅为聊天机器人和数据中心提供动力，还为机器人、工厂以及物理世界中的自动驾驶设备提供支持。

In his keynote on Monday, CEO Jensen Huang pitched a future where Nvidia powers not just chatbots and data centers, but also robots, factories, and autonomous machines in the physical world.

自他的演讲以来，英伟达的股价上涨了近1.5%。

Nvidia's stock is up nearly 1.5% since his speech.

这次大会还有更多内容值得深入探讨。

Lots more to unpack from this conference.

因此，今天我们邀请到DA Davidson科技研究主管吉尔，来与我们全面讨论这些内容。

So here to discuss all of it, we're speaking with our friend Gil Head of Technology Research at DA Davidson.

吉尔，欢迎你来到我们的节目。

Gil, good to have you on the show.

我们必须从这个引发所有头条新闻的1万亿美元数字开始谈起。

I think we have to start with this $1,000,000,000,000 number that is making all the headlines.

到2027年，芯片销售额将达到1万亿美元。

1,000,000,000,000 in chip sales through 2027.

这就是詹森·黄所相信的。

That's what Jensen Huang believes.

谈谈你对这个数字的看法。

Give us your views on that number.

这个数字是真实的，还是只是个标题？

Is that a real number, or is that just a headline?

不是。

No.

这是个真实的数字。

It's a real number.

真正令人惊讶的是，投资者对此漠然置之

What's really surprising is that investors shrugged it

觉得这并不令人印象深刻。

off as unimpressive.

实际上，它在一年内就增加了整整半万亿美元的收入。

It it really added a half $1,000,000,000,000 of revenue in, really, in a year.

你会认为投资者会对此趋之若鹜，因为这暗示了英伟达下个日历年业绩的上升空间。

And you would think investors would jump all over that considering it it implies upside to next calendar year's numbers for Nvidia.

然而投资者却对此置之不理，这告诉我们一些非常有趣的事情。

And yet investors shrugged it off, which tells us something really interesting.

投资者并不相信数据中心的大规模建设会在明年继续下去。

Investors don't believe the great data center build out will continue into next year.

市场现在告诉我们，它预计2026年将是数据中心建设的峰值年。

The market is now telling us that it is expecting 2026 to be the peak year in the data center build out.

这表明市场有点

Now that's indicating a little

矛盾，因为正如你所说，我们之前也讨论过，市场同时也在说大规模失业即将到来，软件公司毫无价值。

bit of split personality for the market because as you discussed and we've discussed, the market is also saying mass unemployment is coming, software companies are worthless.

所以人工智能一定会到来。

So AI is going to happen.

它将产生巨大的变革性影响。

It's going to have a huge transformational effect.

但与此同时，市场并不相信大规模的数据中心建设会延续到明年。

And yet at the same time, the market's not believing that the great data center build out will will continue into next year.

所以 somewhere along there，存在某种不一致。

So somewhere along there, there's an inconsistency.

我想我能理解市场在此处的反应。

I guess something that I would empathize with the market's reaction here.

我的意思是，当我们听到埃隆·马斯克谈论乐观机器人，并提及未来那些庞大的数字时，他常常会说，我认为这将产生数万亿美元的收入。

I mean, when we hear Elon Musk, for example, talk about optimist robots and sort of talk about these big numbers in the future, he'll often say something like, I think this is gonna generate trillions of dollars worth of revenue.

而他似乎只是随口一提。

And he seems to sort of just say it on the fly.

他对机器人出租车也说过类似的话，但后来却从未真正实现。

He said similar things about robotaxis as well, and then it it never materialized.

或者即使实现了，其规模也远小于许多人预期的那么大。

Or if it did, it materialized in a much more insignificant way than a lot of people expected.

因此，对于黄仁勋来说，问题依然存在。

And I guess the question remains here for Jensen Huang too.

我的意思是，为什么这个是真实的，而它看起来也像是对未来的一种预测呢？

I mean, why is this one real when it seems to be also a little bit of a projection out into the future?

为什么我们应该认真对待它？

Why is it something that we should really be taking seriously?

这是个合理的问题，因为这些数字太夸张了。

That's a fair question because these numbers are fantastical.

所以当有人给我们这种夸张的数字时，我们确实必须保持怀疑。

So we do have to always be skeptical when people give us fantastical numbers like that.

但公平地说，这是两个人。

But to be fair, two different people.

是的。

Mhmm.

埃隆·马斯克长期以来一直有过度承诺和压缩时间表的记录，即使他知道实际需要更长的时间。

Elon Musk has a long illustrious track record of overpromising and and compressing timelines even when he knows it's gonna take a lot longer.

尽管他通常最终还是会兑现承诺，但时间表往往会大大延长。

Even though he usually delivers on the promises eventually, the timeline gets extended a lot.

对。

Right.

黄仁勋实际上一直相当稳健。

Jensen Huang has actually been pretty consistent.

他一直谨慎，不提前预测太远的未来。

He's actually been cautious not to guide too far into the future.

直到六个月前，英伟达还只预测一个季度的业绩。

Up until just six months ago, Nvidia was only guiding one quarter at a time.

六个月前，他改变了做法，说：我觉得到2026年或未来十八个月内，Blackwell和Rubin的市场规模将达到五万亿美元左右，这略微超过了2026年。

Six months ago, he took a departure to say, you know, I think there's gonna be half $1,000,000,000,000 of Blackwell and Rubin by the '26 or in the next eighteen months, which is slightly past '26.

他指出了这一点，并说：看，我就在这里。

And he and he pointed to that and said, look, here I am.

五个月后，我告诉你们，那个数字太低了。

Five months later, I'm telling you that number's too low.

如果我把时间延长到2027年2月，我需要把这个数字提升到一万亿美元。

I need to take that to a trillion dollars if I extend it to 02/2027.

所以他非常谨慎。

So he's being thoughtful.

而且，从他沟通和澄清这一说法的方式来看，他似乎是在保守预测。

And he, at least in the way he's communicated and clarified that statement, feels like he's under promising.

他澄清说，这个数字不包括CPU、Grok芯片、网络设备或Rubin Ultra。

He clarified this doesn't include CPUs or the Grok chips or the networking equipment or or Rubin Ultra.

所以他实际上说，这已经超过了一万亿美元。

So he actually said it's more than a trillion.

因此，在他看来，这个数字是他有很高可见度的，因为他已经获得了来自最大客户——微软、亚马逊、谷歌、Meta等——的订单。

So from his perspective, this is a number that he has high visibility into because he has these orders from his largest customers, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, etcetera.

所以他觉得这其实还是保守估计，这或许也解释了为什么他对市场对如此高数字的反应平淡感到有些意外。

So he feels like that's actually under promising, which is probably why he's a little surprised by the under reaction to such a high number.

那么，我们该如何理解市场对未来几年数据中心建设似乎并不那么兴奋这一事实呢？

So I guess what then do we make of the fact that the market doesn't seem to be so hyped about the next couple of years in data center build out?

为什么投资者会相信这一点？

Why do investors believe this?

为什么他们，听起来你是在说，认为我们已经达到了数据中心的峰值？

Why do they, it seems like you're saying, think that we've kind of reached peak data center?

我不认为我们已经达到了数据中心的峰值。

Well, I don't think we've reached peak data center.

我的意思是，这些股票的估值暗示了这一点。

I'm saying the the evaluations for for these stock imply that.

这其实并不是一个不合理的说法：看看这些大公司正在投入数千亿美元。

And and it's not an unreasonable thing to say, look, these big companies are investing hundreds of billions of dollars.

但它们目前还没有足够的收入和回报来证明这些投入是合理的。

They do not yet have the revenue and the returns to justify that.

在我们看到这些回报实现之前，我们会对这些公司继续以如此高速度投资持怀疑态度，因为这些公司正在用尽全部现金流，甚至更多资金来建设数据中心。

Until we see those returns come in, we're gonna be skeptical about these companies continuing to invest at these rates because these companies are using all their cash flow and then some to build out data centers.

它们不可能永远这样下去。

They can't keep doing this forever.

所以，我们投资者作为一个整体，观点是：等回报表现得更好一些再做判断。

So we, the investors, the market as a collective, view is let's wait until we see the returns come in a little better.

那时我们才能有信心相信数据中心的建设将继续保持这种速度。

Then we'll be able to make that leap of faith that the data center construction is going to continue at these rates.

我们的观点，也是我的观点，是我们会获得这些回报。

It is our opinion, it is my opinion that we will get these returns.

OpenAI、Anthropic以及消费者和企业对AI的使用增长如此显著，而技术仍在发展中，我们实际上需要更多的数据中心。

That the growth rates we're seeing at OpenAI and Anthropic and in usage of AI by consumers and enterprises is so significant and the technology is still developing that we will actually need a lot more data centers.

但保持怀疑态度总是有道理的。

But the skepticism is always warranted.

这反而创造了投资机会。

It just creates opportunities for investments.

对。

Right.

他主题演讲中的一个主要主题是物理AI。

One of the big themes in his keynote was physical AI.

也就是机器人、工厂、自主系统等。

So robots, factories, autonomous systems, etcetera.

在你看来，这在AI基础设施建设的展开过程中扮演了重要角色吗？

Does that play a big role in your view on how this AI build out will unfold?

你在考虑物理AI吗？

Are you thinking about physical AI?

这个故事对你有吸引力吗？

Was that story compelling to you?

这很有说服力，但时间表不同。

It's compelling, but the timeline is different.

你之前提到埃隆·马斯克关于将数百万机器人引入每个家庭的承诺，而我们知道这还需要几年时间。

You you pointed earlier to to Elon Musk and his promises about optimists enrolling millions of optimists into every home, and and we know that's a few years away.

我会把这看作是延长AI周期。

I would think of that as extending the AI cycle.

如果AI周期是关于提升白领工人的生产力，那么物理AI和机器人则是关于扩展蓝领工人的生产力。

If the AI cycle is about increasing productivity of white collar workers, physical AI and robotics are about extending the productivity of blue collar workers.

对于那些没看主旨演讲的人，他们甚至用《冰雪奇缘》中的奥拉夫做了动画，让他上台与黄仁勋对话。

For those of you that didn't see the keynote, they even animated Olaf from Frozen and had him come on stage to talk to Jensen Huang.

所以这一趋势正在到来，我们已经看到一些Optimus和Figure机器人的演示等。

And, and and so it is coming, and we've seen some demos of Optimus and Figure Robots, etcetera.

我们知道这还需要几年时间。

We just know that that's several years out.

因此，这可能落后于大的AI浪潮。

So that's probably behind the big AI wave.

我们将迎来一波大型人形机器人浪潮，帮助自动化从白领到蓝领的其他类型工作。

We're gonna have a big humanoid robot wave that'll help automate the other types of jobs from white collar jobs to blue collar jobs.

你认为会是

What would you

到目前为止，GTC最核心的收获是什么？

say was the single most important takeaway from GTC so far?

NVIDIA收购的Grok技术的整合。

The incorporation of the Grok technology that Nvidia acquired.

如果我们一直在讨论Broadcom和AMD试图追赶NVIDIA，那么AMD已经推出了新一代GPU，包括为Meta和OpenAI开发的定制GPU。

So if we've been talking about Broadcom and AMD trying to catch up to Nvidia, AMD has a new generation of GPUs, some custom GPUs they're doing for Meta, for OpenAI.

博通生产ASIC芯片，也就是为谷歌等大型公司定制的加速器芯片。

Broadcom does the ASICs, which is custom accelerator chips that they do for for other large companies like Google, etcetera.

这些公司似乎正在追赶英伟达。

And those companies appeared to be catching up to Nvidia.

通过将Grok技术整合到其数据中心系统中，英伟达进一步拉大了与这些公司的差距。

By incorporating Grok technology into their data center systems, Nvidia is extending its lead from those companies.

他们提到，自己能够比任何其他替代方案更快、更便宜地生成更多令牌。

They're talking about the fact that they can generate more tokens faster and cheaper than any of those alternatives.

为了实现这一点，将Grok技术整合进来对他们来说至关重要。

And it was very important for them to bring the Grok technology in in order to accomplish that.

因此，英伟达正在扩大其对竞争对手的领先优势，并论证即使在推理阶段，英伟达系统的总体拥有成本也更低，而关键就在于加入了Grok技术。

So it's Nvidia extending its lead over the competition and making the argument that the total cost of ownership even for inference is lower with Nvidia systems, and the key to that was adding the Grok technology.

另一个让我对这次大会印象深刻的是它的规模之大。

One other thing that has struck me about this conference is just how big it is.

人们说这是人工智能的超级碗，是人工智能的伍德斯托克。

People are going at Super Bowl of AI, Woodstock of AI.

我的意思是，你看到那些照片，巨大的人群几乎填满了整个体育场。

I mean, you see these images of these gigantic crowds literally filling out a stadium.

我看到网上有人说，黄仁勋是男性中的泰勒·斯威夫特，我觉得这种说法虽然奇怪，但意外地并不算太离谱。

I saw someone online saying that Jensen Huang is the Taylor Swift of men, which I think is weirdly actually not that not that inaccurate.

没错。

That's right.

你觉得这个活动发展到如此规模意味着什么？

What do you make of just how big of an event this has become?

我想知道，到2026年黄仁勋的明星地位反映了社会和当前市场怎样的状况？

And I guess the stardom of Jensen Huang in 2026, what does that say about society and where we are as a market right now?

是的。

Yeah.

这是今年人工智能领域最重要的盛会。

This is the big event of the year for AI.

这绝非偶然。

And it's not a coincidence.

黄仁勋比所有人都更早预见了人工智能的未来。

Jensen Huang foresaw the future of AI before anybody else did.

对吧？

Right?

他当时正在会面，对。

He was meeting Yeah.

2017年就和萨姆·奥尔特曼碰面，给他提供芯片。

Sam Altman in 2017 to give him chips.

所以他早就预见了这一切的到来。

So he saw this coming.

他提前预判了好几步行业的发展。

He's anticipated several steps forward.

如今的热度其实是实至名归的，毕竟这场AI革命，黄仁勋本人还有英伟达都功不可没。

So this is really well deserved in the sense that he is very much and Nvidia is very much responsible for the AI revolution.

而他们能拿下AI行业的大部分利润，并且未来一段时间还会维持这个态势，这也绝非偶然。

And it's not a coincidence that they also capture most of the profit dollars in AI and will continue to do so for a while.

正是他的远见推动了大量进展。

So it's his vision that's has been responsible for a lot of the progress.

这使得英伟达和GTC成为当前AI领域的核心事件，因此这是一场盛大的庆祝。

It's made Nvidia and GTC the main event for AI right now, and that's why it's such a big celebration.

而且他还穿着标志性的黑色皮夹克。

And plus he has the iconic black leather jacket.

拥有这样的标志性形象确实很有帮助。

That always helps that you have something like that.

看起来很不错。

It looks pretty good.

我觉得我们也该弄一件。

I think we need to get one ourselves.

最后一个问题。

Final question.

每股181美元。

A $181 a share.

这就是英伟达股票目前的交易价格。

That is what Nvidia stock is trading at right now.

你对DA Davidson那边的估值怎么看？

What do you make of the valuation over at DA Davidson?

这非常有吸引力。

It's very attractive.

这是一个市场市盈率。

That's a market multiple.

因此，他们以21倍的市盈率交易，而这个盈利数字可能偏低。

So they're trading at 21 times earnings on a number that's probably too low.

对于一家今年增长将超过50%、很可能也超过30%的公司来说，这是一个市场市盈率。

A market multiple for a company that's gonna grow more than 50% this year and probably more than 30% this year.

这远高于市场平均增长率。

That's a lot more than market growth.

所以，只要你相信我们明年仍将继续需要更多AI并建设更多数据中心，英伟达可能是最具吸引力的超级大盘股。

So as long as you believe that we're gonna continue to need more AI and build more data centers next year, Nvidia's probably the most attractive mega cap out there.

好的。

Alright.

吉尔·卢里亚，DA Davidson。

Gil Luria, DA Davidson.

吉尔，非常感谢你抽出时间。

Gil, always appreciate your time.

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢。

Thank you.

广告后，中国在伊朗战争中的角色。

After the break, China's role in the Iran war.

如需获取更多市场洞察，欢迎订阅我的每周通讯《Simply Put》，网址是 simplyput.profgmedia.com。

For even more markets insights, you can subscribe to my weekly newsletter, Simply Put, at simplyput.profgmedia.com.

今天的节目由Granola赞助。

Support for today's show comes from Granola.

一整天连续开会的痛苦，真是难以忍受。

The struggle of having back to back meetings throughout the day is a painful one.

你一边点头附和，一边积极参与，努力保持专注。

You're nodding along, contributing, trying to stay present.

但你心里却在偷偷刷着记忆，回想刚才说了什么，谁该跟进哪件事。

But in the back of your mind, you're secretly stress scrolling your memory for what was just said or who's supposed to follow-up on what.

会议简直一团糟。

Meetings are a mess.

Granola 想要解决这个问题。

Granola wants to fix that.

Granola 是一款为真实会议场景打造的AI笔记工具。

Granola is an AI powered notepad built for the way real people actually meet.

你只需像往常一样随手记下粗略笔记，Granola 会在后台安全地转录会议内容。

You simply take rough notes like you normally would, and in the background, Granola securely transcribes the meeting.

会议结束后，它会将所有内容整理成清晰、结构化且真正有用的笔记。

Then it turns everything into clean, structured, actually useful notes when the meeting ends.

你想知道最棒的部分是什么吗？

And you wanna know the best part?

Granola 通过你设备的音频工作，这意味着它可以无缝集成到你已使用的视频会议工具中。

Granola works through your device's audio, which means it integrates seamlessly into the video conferencing tools you already use.

无需设置，无需尴尬的机器人。

No setup, no awkward bots.

这就像你正常的会议，但拥有了让你工作更高效的强大功能。

It's just your normal meeting with superpowers you need to do your job better.

所以如果会议正在吞噬你的一天，Granola 是不二之选。

So if meetings are eating up your day, Granola is a no brainer.

你可以免费试用三个月。

You can try it totally free for three months.

只需访问 granola.ai/markets。

Just head to granola.ai/markets.

前往 granola.ai/markets，拿回你的时间。

That's granola.ai/markets to get your time back.

前往 granola.ai/markets 获取三个月免费试用。

Get three months free at granola.ai/markets.

当你思考美国的财富不平等问题时，可能第一个想到的人就是他。

When you think about wealth inequality in America, there's probably one man whose name comes to mind.

是的，他确实将美国的亿万富翁时代与镀金时代相提并论。

And, yes, he did compare America's billionaire era to the gilded age.

我们正处在一个时代：最顶层的1%所拥有的财富超过底层93%的总和，一个人——埃隆·马斯克——的财富超过了美国底层53%的家庭，而当60%的美国人还在靠工资过活时，亿万富翁阶层的财富自特朗普上任以来已增加了1.5万亿美元。

We're living in a moment where the top 1% owns more wealth than the bottom 93%, where one man, Elon Musk, owns more wealth than the bottom 53% of American households, where while 60% of our people are living paycheck to paycheck, the billionaire class has seen its wealth increase by a trillion and a half dollars since Trump was elected.

这怎么样？

How's that?

他们过得还不错吧？

They doing pretty well?

我采访了参议员伯尼·桑德斯，聊了聊他最新的财富税法案、呼吁暂停人工智能数据中心建设，以及他本人使用人工智能的程度。

I talked to Senator Bernie Sanders about his latest bill for a wealth tax and his call for a moratorium on AI data centers, plus how much he uses AI himself.

《今日解读》，工作日每日更新，现在周六也更新了。

Today explained, every weekday, and now on Saturdays too.

大家好！

What's up, everybody?

我是卡姆·哈耶德，匹兹堡钢人队的队长，也是《不只是足球》的主持人。

It's Cam Hayward, your Steelers captain and host of Not Just Football.

这周，我们请来了传奇人物。

And this week, we brought on the legend.

小韦恩到场了。

Lil Wayne is in the building.

当今最伟大的说唱歌手，铁杆橄榄球迷，现在还创办了自己的体育经纪公司——Young Money Sports。

Greatest rapper alive, certified football head, and now running his own sports agency, Young Money Sports.

我们聊了他是如何起步的，他的愿景是什么，以及特拉维斯·亨特为何选择了Young Money。

We got to know how it started, what the vision is, and how Travis Hunter ended up choosing Young Money.

我们深入探讨了橄榄球、包装工队、选秀即将来到匹兹堡、NIL政策，以及如何从零开始打造运动员的品牌。

We went deep in the football, the packers, the draft coming to Pittsburgh, NIL, and what it really takes to build an athlete's brand from the ground up.

我们还聊了音乐、《卡特六号》、接下来的计划，以及一些你从未听过的幕后故事。

We talked music, the Carter six, what's coming next, and stories you have never heard before.

我们谈到了他的传奇经历、新奥尔良、11岁时的Cash Money，以及25年屹立巅峰的动力所在。

And we got into his legacy, New Orleans, cash money at 11 years old, and twenty five years at the top, and what still drives him.

这次不一样。

This one is different.

这次很特别。

This one is special.

在匹兹堡，选秀即将回家。

In Pittsburgh, the draft is coming home.

请前往Not Just Football官网购买卡姆·哈沃德的选秀派对门票，日期是4月23日，并使用代码mister Carter。

Grab your ticket for Cam Hayward's draft party on April 23 at Not Just Football dot com and use code mister Carter.

代码是m r c a r t e r，可享受预售折扣，并在社交媒体上关注我们。

That is m r c a r t e r for a presale discount and follow us on socials.

我们开始吧。

Let's get it.

我们回到Prof G Markets。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

特朗普正在施压中国，帮助他赢得伊朗战争。

Trump is pressuring China to help him win the Iran war.

周一，特朗普要求将他计划与习近平举行的峰会推迟大约一个月。

On Monday, Trump asked to push his planned summit with Xi Jinping back by, quote, a month or so.

原定于3月31日的会晤，将是自2017年以来美国总统首次访问中国。

The meeting was set for March 31 and would have been the first US presidential visit to China since 2017.

这一推迟被广泛视为一种策略，旨在促使中国协助重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，而中国恰恰具备独特的能力来促成此事。

This delay is widely seen as a tactic to push China to help reopen the Strait Of Hormuz, and China is uniquely positioned to help do that.

中国购买了伊朗约91%的石油出口，是唯一对伊朗拥有实际经济影响力的大国。

It buys roughly 91% of Iran's oil exports, making it the only country with real financial leverage over Iran.

因此，今天我们邀请到格林曼特公司的董事、《中国解码》播客的联合主持人爱丽丝·韩，帮我们分析中国在伊朗战争中的角色。

So here to help us unpack China's involvement in the Iran war, we're speaking with Alice Han, director at Greenmantle and cohost of the China Decode podcast.

爱丽丝，感谢你加入我们。

Alice, thank you for joining us.

我想问问你对中国在此事中角色的看法，但我们或许应该先从特朗普可能试图向中国传递信息、促使他们重新开放霍尔木兹海峡说起。

I want to ask you about China's role in all of this, but we should probably start with Trump maybe trying to send a message to China, trying to get them to reopen the Strait Of Hormuz.

这就是他传递的信息吗？他们能做到吗？

Is that the message he's sending, and can they do that?

他们真的能让这件事发生吗？

Can they really make it happen?

谢谢您邀请我再次做客这个节目，埃德。

Well, thanks for having me back on the show, Ed.

真是非常有趣的内容。

Really interesting stuff.

美国与中国之间的局势与伊朗的局势正在碰撞，让我逐一分析。

We've got a collision of what's happening on The US China front with what's happening in Iran, so let me take it sequentially.

我认为特朗普是在温和地请求中国提供帮助，不仅仅是中方，还包括欧洲及其他地区相关方，因为他显然觉得自己无法单独完成这件事。

I would say what Trump is trying to do is soft requesting the Chinese to help out, not just the Chinese, by the way, the Europeans, other actors in the region as well because he clearly doesn't feel that he can do this alone.

我个人认为，以及我所在公司的同事们也有类似看法，美军地面部队介入、打击威胁霍尔木兹海峡安全的伊朗设施的风险正在上升。

Now my own sense, and this is a sense amongst my colleagues here at my firm, is that there actually is a growing risk of boots on the ground of a US operation to eliminate Iranian miners that opposing a risk to the Strait Of Hormuz.

这种情况是有可能发生的。

That could happen.

但毫无疑问，在当前时刻之前的几周里，华盛顿一直在发出一种温和的信号，希望中国能像上世纪八十年代苏联协助美国那样，参与进来、共同合作应对伊拉克与伊朗战争的局面。

But, certainly, I think in the weeks leading up to the current moment, there has been this sort of soft signaling from Washington that they would like to have the Chinese come in and contribute, collaborate in the way that the Soviets did with the Americans back in the eighties during the Iraq Iran war.

但对我来说，以及从王毅外长在3月8日两会期间记者会上的表态来看，中国并不想卷入其中。

But what is clear to me and what was clear from the readout of Wang Yi, the Chinese foreign minister's press conference back on March 8 during the two sessions is that China doesn't wanna get involved.

王毅明确表示，中国恪守所谓的和平稳定与不干涉内政五项原则。

Wang Yu made it very clear that China is abiding by the, quote, unquote, five principles of peace and stability and noninterference in foreign affairs.

这意味着，中国实际上正在采取观望态度。

What that means concretely is that the Chinese are playing a wait and see game.

截至目前，中国尚未直接援助伊朗，据我所知，他们也不愿派遣护航船队，或与美国合作真正保障霍尔木兹海峡的安全。

They are not directly aiding the Iranians as of yet and so far as I understand, but they are so not willing to commit convoys or collaborate with the Americans to really securitize the Strait Of Hormuz.

最后但同样重要的是，我认为，如果这场冲突持续更长时间，中国在短期甚至中期都将从中获益，因为美国将被拖入中东，从而远离其核心战略关注区域——印太地区。

And last but not least, I would say that they, I think, benefit in the short term or even the medium term if this becomes a more prolonged conflict from The US being bogged down in the Middle East, you know, moving away from the Indo Pacific as its core area of strategic concern.

而且，我认为中国相信，这在短期和中期可能促使海湾国家——事实上已经如此——更靠近北京，因为从他们的角度看，美国和以色列在伊朗问题上的处理方式令人非常不满。

And and, really, I think the Chinese believe that this could, in the short medium term, push the Gulf countries, which it, I think, already is doing closer towards Beijing because the Gulf countries are very upset with what has been happening in terms of The US and Israelis mismanagement from their perspective of the Iran issue.

看起来，权力和影响力才是这里最关键的问题。

It seems like leverage and power is really the big question here.

而根据特朗普以你所说的这种温和请求所采取的行动来看，这似乎暗示中国有能力让霍尔木兹海峡的局面好转，因为他们大量购买伊朗的石油。

And based on what what Trump is doing with this sort of soft ask, as you put it, it seems to suggest that China has the power to make things okay in the Strait Of Hormuz because they buy so much of Iran's oil.

同时，我也知道中国自身进口的大量石油也依赖伊朗。

At the same time, I also know that China depends on Iran for a lot of the oil that they import to their own nation.

所以在很多方面，也许中国在这一点上并没有真正的影响力。

So in a lot of ways, maybe they don't have the leverage there.

事实上，也许中国在很多方面反而更需要伊朗。

Maybe they actually need Iran, in a lot of ways too.

所以，能否请你为我们梳理一下关于权力和影响力的基本情况？

So I guess give us the the the lay of the land when it comes to power and leverage.

从地缘政治的角度来看，目前谁才是伊朗冲突中真正的实力玩家？

Who is the real power player from a geopolitical perspective when it comes to the Iran war right now?

我认为应该从国家安全的框架出发，从能力和意图两个维度来分析。

Well, I think about it from a national security framework of capabilities and intentions.

你的第一个观点，埃德，是他们是否拥有对伊朗的权力和影响力？

Your first point, Ed, is do they have the power and the leverage of Iran?

百分之百。

A 100%.

是的。

Yes.

他们购买了伊朗石油出口总量的90%以上。

They have bought over nine just over 90% of all Iranian oil exports.

在那之前，中国约有15%的石油进口来自伊朗。

China imports around 15% of its oil prior to this from Iran.

因此，这是一种不对称的关系，伊朗方面高度依赖。

So this is a an asymmetric relationship in which the Iranians are highly reliant.

这是因为中国的需求和进口受到了制裁。

This is you know, because of sanctions on Chinese demand, Chinese imports.

顺便说一句，在过去四十年里，中共和北京方面与伊朗伊斯兰共和国保持着非常紧密的战略关系，因为他们认为伊朗是该地区的关键资产，能为其在中东带来优势。

And by the way, over the last four decades, the CCP, Beijing has had really close strategic ties with the Islamic Republic because they see them as a key asset in the region and giving them an advantage in the Middle East.

但中国是否有意愿真正介入呢？

But does China have the intent to to really get involved?

这就是我持怀疑态度的原因。

And this is why I'm skeptical.

理论上，他们可以对伊朗人说：嘿。

They could, in theory, say to the Iranians, hey.

你们应该停止在该地区部署矿工来阻碍贸易。

You should stop mining putting miners in the region to obstruct trades.

这可能在将来某个时候的某种外交和平进程中被提上议程。

That may be on the table at some later date in some kind of diplomatic peace process.

但目前，我认为中国处于优势地位，因为根据我在海湾地区听到的消息，当伊朗开始开放海峡时，很可能会把中国列在首位。

But right now, I think China is in the advantage seat primarily because from what I'm hearing in the Gulf Region, Iran will probably put China at the top of the list as it starts to open up the strait.

而且我们已经看到一些迹象，就在过去一两天里，有来自印度、巴基斯坦的油轮，其中一艘挂的是圭亚那旗帜，但最终目的地是中国。

And already, we see indications, you know, in the last day or so that there are tankers that are coming from India, Pakistan, one that's Guyana flagged but going ultimately to China.

这让我认为，伊朗未来的做法将是油轮一船一船、个案一个个地处理。

This suggests to me that the pattern moving forward from the Iranians will be tanker by tanker, case by case.

他们会根据自己认为友好的政权来做出决定。

They will decide, based on what they consider to be friendly regimes.

根据过去四十年的关系，对我来说很清楚的是，中国在通过海峡的优先待遇和准入方面，可能会排在首位。

And what is clear to me, given the relationship over the last four decades, is that China will probably be the top of the list in terms of preferential treatment, in terms of access through the strait.

这立即削弱了中国帮助美国的战略动机。

That immediately reduces China's strategic incentive to help the Americans.

因为如果他们仍然能够获得海峡的通行权，为什么还要帮助美国去保障它的安全呢？

Because if they can still get access to the strait, why would they wanna help the Americans in securitizing it Right.

而且如果他们卷入其中，显然会遭受人员和资源的损失。

And and obviously suffer, you know, blood and treasure loss if they do get involved.

你提到中国在这里似乎处于一个舒适的位置，市场也恰恰反映了这一点。

You mentioned how China is in kind of a comfortable position here, it seems, and the markets that's exactly what the markets are reflecting.

我的意思是，亚洲市场普遍遭受重创，唯独中国股市几乎没什么波动，或者至少受到的影响远小于其他地区。

I mean, Asian markets are getting pretty much clobbered across the board except for China where stocks seem to be barely moving or at least the the impact is far less significant in China.

因此，我们正处在一个被分散注意力、但又高度卷入该地区的动态中。

So we've got this dynamic where we're kind of distracted slash highly involved in the region.

这似乎也影响到了欧洲。

It seems to be affecting Europe too.

这似乎也在影响新兴市场。

It seems to be affecting emerging markets.

中国的情况还算不错。

China's kind of okay.

这是否意味着，由于我们都如此分心，中国可能更有动力去入侵台湾？

Does this mean that China may have more of an incentive to invade Taiwan at this point because we're all so distracted?

有一种说法正在流传，在某种程度上颇具说服力。

There is an argument that is going around, which is, to some extent, persuasive.

你知道，美国深陷中东、消耗了精确制导导弹和弹药，从军事力量平衡的角度来看，如果中国决定对台湾采取行动，这会带来一些关键优势。

You know, The US being bogged down and distracted in The Middle East, well, I mean, you know, using down its precision missiles, its ammunition, gives China from a military balance of power perspective some key advantages if it decides to go for Taiwan.

但我认为，这个论点低估了中国国内面临的挑战或国内的变化。

But I think that that argument understates the domestic challenges or the domestic changes in China.

是的。

Okay.

我认为其中有两点值得提及。

Two of them, I think, are worth citing.

第一点是，统管中国人民解放军的最高党政军机关已经经历了彻底的改组清洗。

Number one is we've had a complete wipeout of the highest party and state organ that oversees the PLA, the People's Liberation Army.

也就是中国的全军联合军事领导机构。

This is the the armed forces combined military of of China.

原本该机构的七名成员中有五名被撤换，仅剩的两名成员是国家主席习近平和他的反腐败部门负责人。这一事实在我看来表明，中国国内还没有梳理好内部秩序，即便现在局势对中国更有利，他们也没法贸然开展一场风险极高的战略豪赌。

And, you know, the fact that we've gotten rid of five of the seven members, the two remaining members just being Xi Jinping, the president, and his anti graft minister, suggest to me that they have not put their house in order to really engage in what would be a risky strategic gamble even at this point, even when the advantages are probably more accruing to the side of the Chinese.

第二点，我在过去大概一年多里一直有个判断：中国的高层领导层已经做出转变，打算启动一场政治影响力行动，试图争取国民党的支持。

Second, what I have suspected, for the last, I I would say, year or so, is that there has been a transition in the leadership, elite leadership in China to, really do a political influence campaign to try to get the KMT.

也就是倾向于更亲大陆的国民党将在下次选举周期，也就是2028年5月重新掌权。

This is the Kuomintang that tends to be more pro Mainland back in power in the next election cycle, which will be in 2028, you know, May 2028.

在我看来，习近平会希望能兵不血刃地达成这个目标，因为有个说得通、我也觉得有说服力的逻辑：如果他们能让国民党在台湾地区掌权，那他们甚至都不用实施封锁或是发动入侵。

Now I think that it is in Xi Jinping's interest to see if he can achieve that without even firing a shot because there is, you know, an argument to be had, which I find persuasive that if they if they can install a KMT party in the leadership position in Taipei, then they may not even have to do the quarantine or the invasion.

双方或许能达成政治协议，把台湾变成某种特别自治区，走香港的模式。

They may come to a political settlement where there is some version of, you know, a a special autonomous region, some kind of Hong Kong outcome.

我现在还是对这种情况的发生持怀疑态度，但我觉得有必要把这点提出来，因为这确实是北京领导层精英内部存在的一种思路。

Now I'm still skeptical that that will happen, but I think it's important to flag because I think this is a thinking within the elite leadership in Beijing.

因此，我认为在短期内，未来一年左右，中国不太可能对台湾实施封锁甚至入侵。

And that is why I think in the short term, in the next year or so, I'd I'm very doubtful that there will be a quarantine or even an invasion of Taiwan.

我想我们之所以会想到这一点，是因为我们都分心了。

I guess the reason that our minds go there is because we're all distracted.

我们都担心中东正在发生的事情。

We're all worried about what's happening in The Middle East.

正如你所说，中国处于更舒适、更稳定的位置，这让人觉得他们可能会以某种方式利用这些局势。

As you say, China is in a more comfortable, stable position, which makes you think, well, they're gonna take advantage of these circumstances somehow.

嗯。

Mhmm.

而台湾可能是首先浮现在脑海中的事情，至少对我而言是这样，我认为对很多人来说也是如此。

And Taiwan is probably the first thing that comes to mind, at least it was for me, and I think it was for many others.

但接下来的问题是，他们可能会如何利用这些我们都在承受痛苦、分心、专注于伊朗局势，而他们却处于更安全、更稳固位置的时机？

But then the follow-up question is, how might they take advantage of these circumstances where we're all in pain, we're all distracted, we're all focused on what's happening, in Iran, and they're in a more safe and secure position?

我仍然持怀疑态度，因为归根结底，我认为中国人民解放军的高级将领们缺乏足够的军事经验和准备，来真正主导如此雄心勃勃的行动。

I I'm still skeptical because, ultimately, they do not have, I think, the military experience and preparedness in the PLA elite general top brass level to really oversee such an ambitious move and endeavor.

我认为军事能力极其重要。

And I think the military capabilities are extremely important.

军事人员也极其重要。

The military personnel are extremely important.

因此，在我们看到领导层的关键变化之前——我认为这种变化不会发生在2027年10月的下一次党代会之前——我仍然持怀疑态度。

So until we see key changes in the leadership, which I don't think will happen until the next party congress in October 2027, I still remain skeptical.

我认为，当美国再次陷入中东的泥潭时，中国将利用这一机会，努力深化与这些其他海湾国家的贸易关系和战略关系。

I think, the the one area where I think China is going to take advantage, as The US gets quagmire quagmire again in The Middle East, is to really try to deepen its trading relationships and strategic relationships with these other Gulf states.

嗯。

Mhmm.

有一些迹象表明，特别是沙特阿拉伯，对当前发生的事情非常不满，这可能导致其与北京建立更紧密的战略联系。

There is some indications that Saudi Arabia, in particular, is really unhappy with what is happening and that there could be more strategic ties with Beijing on the back of this.

而且，我认为这同样符合欧洲人的利益，他们对特朗普和华盛顿处理整个伊朗行动的方式也极为不满。

And, certainly, I think that this plays well with the Europeans too who, again, are very unhappy with the way in which Trump and Washington have conducted this whole Iran campaign.

而且，最后但同样重要的是，你提到了亚洲和新兴市场。

And and I think last but not least, you mentioned Asia and and emerging markets.

它们将成为最大的输家，因为像印度这样的国家对石油进口高度依赖，尤其是来自海湾地区的石油。

They are going to be the biggest losers because they are so dependent, countries like India, for instance, on oil imports from the rest of the world, including notably The Gulf.

我认为，这些削弱的国家将更倾向于把中国视为该地区稳定可靠的支柱和强大力量。

I think these weakened countries will look to China more as a stable bedrock, and a stable power in the region.

再次强调，我认为这将提升中国在本地区乃至更广泛范围内的相对战略影响力和实力。

Again, I think raising China's relative strategic influence and power, in the region and beyond.

这是一个非常、非常重大的影响。

It's a very, very big implication.

艾丽丝·韩，绿石资本董事，中国解码播客的联合主持人。

Alice Han, director at Greenmantle, co host of the China Decode podcast.

艾丽丝，非常感谢你抽出时间。

Alice, always appreciate your time.

非常感谢你，埃德。

Thanks so much, Ed.

在结束之前，简要更新一下伊朗战争的最新情况。

Before we end, a quick update on the Iran war.

昨天，我们得知以色列军方在一次空袭中击杀了伊朗最高安全官员之一阿里·拉里贾尼。

So yesterday, we learned that Israeli's military had killed Ali Larejani, one of Iran's top security chiefs, in an airstrike.

事实上，这位人物地位极高，根据Calshi的数据，他曾一度有30%的可能性成为伊朗下一任最高领袖。

In fact, this was someone who was so high up, he at one point had a 30% chance of becoming the next supreme leader of Iran according to Calshi.

与此同时，死亡人数仍在上升。

Meanwhile, the death count is growing.

已有13名美国士兵丧生。

13 American soldiers have lost their lives.

以色列有15人遇难。

Fifteen are dead in Israel.

黎巴嫩有850人丧生。

850 in Lebanon.

伊朗有1500人遇难。

1,500 in Iran.

尽管政府最初向我们保证，但显然这场冲突短期内不会结束，这意味着美国国内民众也将受到冲击，主要体现在经济层面。

And it appears that despite what we were initially told by this administration, this will not end anytime soon, which means that Americans at home will also be affected mostly from an economic perspective.