OpenAI 暂停其 IPO 计划

本节目由Odoo赞助支持。

Support for the show comes from Odoo.

经营企业不该像应付一个软件小组作业那样累人。

Running a business shouldn't feel like surviving a software group project.

会计用一个软件，库存用另一个，销售又用第三个，结果这些软件全都不互通。

One app for accounting, another for inventory, another for sales, and somehow none of them talk to each other.

这就是Odoo的用武之地——一款集所有业务功能于一身的管理软件，把你的整个生意整合在一起。

That's where Odoo comes in, an all in one business management software that brings every part of your business together.

从销售、会计，到库存和营销，全部集中在一个强大的平台上。

From sales and accounting to inventory and marketing, all in one powerful platform.

不用折腾复杂的集成，不用在多个标签页间来回切换，最重要的是，再也不用碰Excel表格了。

No messy integrations, no bouncing between tabs, and best of all, no spreadsheets.

别再花时间管理软件了，用一个统一的系统，专心经营你的生意吧。

Stop managing software and start managing your business with one unified system.

立即免费试用，访问 odo.com/gmarket。

Try for free today at odo.com/gmarket.

网址是 odo.com/gmarket。

That's odoo.com/gmarket.

这里有一件事，大多数健康博主都不会告诉你。

Here's something most wellness influencers won't tell you.

整天纠结于补剂、蛋白粉、冷水浴、可穿戴设备和各种小技巧，反而会拖垮你的目标。

Obsessing over supplements, powders, cold plunges, wearables, and hacks, that's going to undermine your goals.

我把这叫作捡了芝麻丢了西瓜，这也是我在健康路上看到人们最常犯的五个错误之一。

I call it majoring in the minors, and it is one of the five mistakes I see people make most on their wellness journeys.

我是拉巴德·埃尔森，Peloton 的副总裁兼首席教练。

I'm Rabad Elson, VP and head instructor at Peloton.

这周在我的播客《Project Swagger》里，我会一一讲透这些错误，以及我真正希望你去做的事。

And this week on my podcast, Project Swagger, I'm sharing all of those mistakes and what I wanna see you do instead.

现在就去你常用的播客平台关注《Project Swagger》。

Follow Project Saga now wherever you get your podcasts.

货币市场乱得很。

Money market's mad.

如果钱是邪恶的，那栋楼就是地狱。

If money is evil, then that building is hell.

节目开始了。

Show goes

上场。

up.

上场。

Show up.

卖得出去。

Sells.

欢迎来到Prof G Markets。

Welcome to Prof G Markets.

我是埃德·埃尔森。

I'm Ed Elson.

今天是6月30日。

It is June 30.

咱们来看看昨天的市场关键数据。

Let's check-in on yesterday's market vitals.

主要指数上涨，科技股表现强劲。

The major indices climbed as tech stocks rallied.

道琼斯指数首次收于52000点以上。

The Dow closed above 52,000 for the first time.

康卡斯特宣布将NBC环球和Sky从有线业务中分拆后，股价上涨了5%。

Comcast jumped 5% after announcing it is spinning off NBCUniversal and Sky from its cable business.

由于美国和伊朗上周末发生军事对峙，油价随之上涨。

Meanwhile, oil rose after The US and Iran exchanged fire over the weekend.

特朗普总统称，双方今天将开启新的谈判，但伊朗方面否认了这一说法。

President Trump said the two sides are now set to hold fresh talks today, though Iran denied those claims.

最高法院推翻了特朗普试图解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克的举动后，国债收益率保持稳定。

And finally, treasury yields were stable after the Supreme Court overruled Trump's attempts to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook.

不过，在另一项裁决中，法院扩大了总统解除其他独立机构官员职务的权力。

Still in a separate decision, court expanded the president's authority to fire officials at other independent agencies.

好的。

Okay.

还有哪些动态？

What else is happening?

据报道，OpenAI 将推迟其 IPO，延至 2027 年。

OpenAI is reportedly delaying its IPO until 2027.

该公司已于 6 月 8 日秘密提交了上市申请，原本计划今年秋天就挂牌。

The company confidentially filed to go public on June 8 and was on track to debut as soon as this fall.

但据《纽约时报》称，由于 SpaceX 的 IPO 遇到挫折，OpenAI 的高管们决定暂缓进程。

But according to The New York Times, the fallout from SpaceX's Rocky IPO has pushed OpenAI executives to hit the brakes.

与此同时，竞争对手 Anthropic 正在加速推进。

Meanwhile, rival, Anthropic, is racing ahead.

Kalshi 目前预测，Anthropic 今年上市的概率为 76%。

Kalshi now puts the odds that Anthropic goes public this year at 76%.

因此，为了探讨这一延迟对 OpenAI 以及整个 AI 市场意味着什么，我们邀请了《Sources》通讯的作者、《Access》播客的联合主持人亚历克斯·海斯。

So to discuss what this delay actually means for OpenAI and for the AI markets in general, we're speaking with Alex Heath, author of the Sources Newsletter and co host of the Access Podcast.

亚历克斯，感谢你加入我们。

Alex, thank you for joining us.

这是个大新闻，虽然还没官方确认，但《纽约时报》已经报道了OpenAI的事。

This is huge news, unconfirmed officially, but this was reported by The New York Times, OpenAI.

原本他们的计划是上市。

The plan was they were gonna go public.

他们已经悄悄提交了申请，但现在看来，今年上市他们有点犹豫了。

They filed confidentially, and now apparently they're scared of doing it this year.

你一直深入报道OpenAI的情况。

You do a lot of reporting on OpenAI.

你到底知道些什么内情？

What do you actually know about this?

我们能从这条消息里看出什么实质信息？

What can we actually take away from this news?

我觉得这件事一直都没定下来。

I think this was always very much in flux.

过去几周，媒体上关于OpenAI上市的消息版本真是一波接一波，挺有意思的。

It's been interesting to see how many versions of OpenAI IPOing we can get in the press in the last couple of weeks.

这确实有点出人意料。

It's been kinda remarkable.

我觉得有不少投行人士在故意炒热度。

I think there's a lot of investor banker types who are trying to gen this up.

我觉得OpenAI还没准备好。

I don't think OpenAI is ready.

我知道他们还在组建财务和投资者关系团队，为上市做准备。

I know that they're still trying to get their finance and investor relation org in place for what is needed for a public company.

就像OpenAI自己说的，提交保密文件只是为自己留个后路，方便以后再决定何时上市。

When you do the confidential filing, you're as OpenAI said when it did that, you're really just setting yourself up with optionality to then be able to go out at a later date.

我记得Reddit也是，保密文件一交就是好几年，本来以为要上市了，结果没成。

But, you know, I remember Reddit, that thing was in confidential filing for years because they thought they were gonna go out and then they didn't.

我记不清是疫情还是别的原因，但公司提交保密文件后一拖再拖，甚至拖上好几年，其实挺常见的。

And I can't remember if it was the pandemic or something else, but it's very common for companies to do a confidential filing, which is just starting the process with the SEC and then delay multiple times, even years in some cases.

但至少公司内部有些人是真心想上市的，这不很明显吗？

Doesn't it seem though that at least there are people within the company who definitely did want to?

我想到的这个人是萨姆。

The person I'm thinking of was Sam.

我记得当时看到过相关报道，但现在到底哪些是真的，谁也说不准。

And I remember we we saw that reporting, and who knows what's true at this point.

但当时报道说萨姆·阿尔特曼想上市，他确实在积极推动这件事。

But when we saw this reporting where Sam Altman wanted to go public, he was trying to push that.

结果首席财务官莎拉·弗莱尔直接否了，说不行。

And then the CFO, Sarah Fryer, said, no.

我觉得我们还没准备好。

I don't think we're ready.

现在不是上市的合适时机。

I don't think this is the time to do it.

我只能推测，公司里肯定有人特别希望上市，现在他们大概也得承认，也许现在真不是时候——尤其是萨姆。

I mean, I I have to assume that there are people within the company who really wanted this to happen, and now they're probably having to concede maybe this isn't the right time, specifically Sam.

是的。

Yeah.

报道称萨姆一直在推动这件事，这一点我完全相信，他还想要一万亿美元的估值，我也完全信服。

Mean, the reporting is that Sam has been pushing for it, which I totally buy, and that he wants a 1,000,000,000,000 valuation, which I also totally buy.

我觉得应该还有其他人觉得我们还没准备好。

I do think there's probably others who are saying we're not ready.

OpenAI、Anthropic这些公司都不是普通的公司。

OpenAI, Ananthropic, these are not normal companies.

它们的运作方式跟普通公司完全不同。

They don't work like normal companies.

它们非常混乱。

They're incredibly chaotic.

没有成熟上市公司那种规范的流程。

They don't have formal processes in place that a mature public company would have.

作为商业实体，它们才发展了短短几年而已。

As commercial entities, they're really only a few years old.

尽管它们的估值高达数十亿，但你跟内部人员聊过就会发现，它们的氛围完全就像一家初创公司。

Even though they have these massive valuations, they very much feel, and you feel this when you talk to people internally, like a startup.

在上市之前，还有很多问题需要解决。

And that has a lot of things that have to be ironed out before you can IPO.

我觉得Anthropic会率先上市。

I do think Anthropic will go out first.

我听说了，也有其他人提到，他们可能打算在十月或十一月行动。

I I have heard and others are reporting that they're eyeing October or November.

我觉得他们在打造上市所需的能力方面走得更靠前一些。

I think they're a little farther along on building that muscle.

而且他们的故事对投资者来说更清晰，因为他们主要做的是企业级API业务，定位很明确。

They also have a bit of a simpler story to tell investors because of the kind of clarity of what they do is primarily an enterprise API business.

OpenAI那边的变数就太多了。

OpenAI just has a lot of wild cards.

对吧？

Right?

广告还在陆续上线。

Ads are still rolling out.

这个故事还没成型。

That story is not there yet.

他们和约翰尼·艾夫合作的硬件项目，从第一款设备开始，我觉得会在秋天公布。

The hardware stuff they're gonna be doing with Johnny Ives starting with the first device, I think they're gonna announce in the fall.

这可是个巨大的变数。

That's a giant wild card.

他们的超级应用战略还没落地。

Their super app strategy has not yet come into place.

这类AI实验室总是有太多不确定因素。

There's a lot of moving parts, there will always be with these AI labs.

但我觉得Anthropic现在讲的故事更简单，

But I think Anthropic actually just has a simpler story to tell right now, which

这也就是我们可能率先上市的原因。

is also why we'll probably go first.

我觉得你说得一点都没错。

I think that's exactly right.

但我的体会是，OpenAI 在好几个层面都显得一团糟。

But I part of my takeaway from this is it seems as though OpenAI on multiple different levels doesn't really have its shit together.

说到这个机密文件，确实，这种事情就会发生。

And it it this the confidential filing, to your point, this happens.

公司都会提交文件。

Companies file.

但过程总是要拖一段时间。

It takes a while.

不过你也得想，公司里总该有人知道，一旦提交，肯定会被报道。

But you also have to assume that, I mean, someone within the company should have known if we file, it's gonna be reported on.

如果我们不公开，这件事也会被曝光。

And if we don't go public, that'll be reported on.

到时候，大家都会对这一切议论纷纷。

And everyone's gonna have a lot to say about all of this.

说好要停掉这些副业，这本来是他们的风格，结果呢，还是继续干，甚至花两亿美元去做个播客。

The same is true of saying we're gonna stop doing these side hustles, which was sort of their MO, and then they go out and continue to do these side hustles, including going out and spending $200,000,000 on a podcast.

我觉得OpenAI在很多方面都乱七八糟的，至少从这些忽停忽起的声明来看，给人的就是这种感觉。

I mean, I feel like there are multiple different levels in which OpenAI doesn't really know what it's doing, or at least that's the vibe I'm getting from all of these stop and start announcements.

我这么说是不是太苛刻了？还是说，这其实挺准确地概括了这家公司的情况？

Am I being too critical, or would that be a somewhat fair characterization of the company?

我觉得他们就是一家心神不宁的公司。

I think they are a jittery company.

我觉得这个IPO的事，主要是投资者在媒体上炒起来的。

I think this IPO thing is really being gend up in the media by investors.

目前为止，唯一真正发生的事，就是他们提交了那份保密的S-1文件。

I think the only concrete thing that's happened is they filed a confidential s one.

他们之前说过要这么做。

They said they would do that.

他们宣布的时候还说，根本没打算给时间表。

They when they announced it, they said we do not have a sense of timing.

这是他们唯一确认过的事情。

That is the only thing they have confirmed.

然后媒体上有很多匿名报道，说他们原本考虑秋季，现在又改口说2027年。

And then there's a lot of anonymous reporting about, you know, they were thinking about the fall, and now they're thinking about 2027.

说不定下周又会冒出新消息，说他们重新考虑秋季，全看Anthropic那边漏出什么风声。

We may get a new round next week saying they're thinking about the fall again based on whatever leaks out of Anthropic.

现在媒体上到处都是各种信号在传递。

There's a lot of messages being sent through the press right now.

我不觉得这些都能当真，当成铁板钉钉的事。

I wouldn't necessarily take all of this as, like, super concrete.

这局势变化太快了，太不稳定了。

I think it is a very dynamic, fast moving situation.

Anthropic下个季度的年经常性收入要是突然暴跌，这故事就没人提了。

Anthropics ARR could crater for some reason in the next quarter, and then the story is not there.

OpenAI的那个超级应用要是搞砸了，他们还得再花一年时间调整。

OpenAI super app thing could not work, and then it needs another year to regroup from that.

广告可能行不通。

Ads could not work.

硬件也可能搞不定。

The hardware could not work.

他们或许得重新调整管理团队。

You know, they may need to redo the executive bench.

对吧？

Right?

他们得应对的事情太多了。

There's there's a lot of things that they have to get through.

我觉得他们最终会上市。

I do think they will IPO.

要是拖到2027年下半年才上市，我才会觉得惊讶。

I would be shocked if it was in the second half of twenty twenty seven.

我觉得应该会在此之前，具体是今年三季度、四季度，还是明年一季度、二季度，现在还不清楚。

I think it will be before that, whether that's q three, q four, or q one, q two next year remains to be seen.

但我们终究得上市，因为这是没办法的事。

But we are going to get an IPO because you kinda have to.

他们已经融了太多钱了。

They've raised too much money.

这本来就是自然而然的结局。

I mean, is the natural end state.

他们也可以再搞一轮私募。

They could do another private round.

他们很快就会搞一次员工股权回购。

They'll do an employee tender offer here soon.

但我觉得，尤其是萨姆，是真心想上市的。

But, you know, I do think Sam, in particular, wants to IPO.

而且，就SpaceX的成功来看，至少在上市那天，他们确实有这条路径，我觉得。

And, you know, based on the success of SpaceX, at least, you know, on the IPO day, they certainly have a path to that, I think.

说来有趣，你提到这个，因为那篇文章里说他们担心上市，其中一个理由就是觉得SpaceX是个失败案例。

Well, it's funny you mentioned that because one of the reasons that was cited in that article for why they're worried about going public was that they saw SpaceX as a failure.

你说得对，上市那天股价确实暴涨了。

To your point, massive pop on IPO day.

但从那以后又跌回去了，不过现在差不多回到了当初的水平。

Since then, it's come, crashing back down, but it's kind of around where it was when it started.

你觉得他们看到SpaceX的情况，真的因此担心上市吗？

Do you think that that that is genuinely a reason that they're worried about it when they look at SpaceX?

我也不太确定，老兄。

Or I don't know, man.

我是说，SpaceX的数据你可是看过了。

I mean, SpaceX, you you went into the numbers.

SpaceX的估值曾经达到2160亿美元，这算不算成功？

Is SpaceX trading at one point or 2,160,000,000,000 a good outcome or not for SpaceX?

依他们的营收来看，我觉得这成绩相当不错。

I mean, based on their revenue, I think it's pretty good.

我也觉得，从长远来看，这结果其实挺好的。

I also think it's it's ultimately pretty good.

我觉得归根结底这撑不了多久，这会是个问题，说实话，看到报告里说他们把SpaceX当成问题，我还挺惊讶的。

I think ultimately, it's not gonna last, and I think that's gonna be a problem, which was honestly why I was a little surprised to see that in the reporting that they saw SpaceX as a problem.

斯科特说特斯拉已经过头了，这都没让你长点记性吗，埃德？

Did Scott calling Tesla being over not teach you anything, Ed?

这事儿没法这么简单看。

You can't.

这是马斯克啊。

This is Elon.

得了吧。

Come on.

你听我说。

Look.

我觉得SpaceX估值两万亿美元，IPO还能再融八百亿，这本身就说明市场是认的。

I think I think SpaceX at 2,000,000,000,000 and raising 80,000,000,000 or whatever on the IPO signals there is a market here.

我不确定，比如第三个大型AI公司上市，会不会像第二个那样受追捧。

I don't know if, like, you know, the third big AI IPO gets as much love as the second.

对吧？

Right?

我觉得这就是OpenAI和Anthropic都想抢着第一个上市的原因。

I think that's why OpenAI and Anthropic really wanna go first, one of them.

等到第三个的时候，说服大家可就没那么容易了。

It will be a little tougher sell when you hit the third one.

我的意思是，普通投资者对这些东西到底有多少需求？

I mean, how much retail demand is there for these things?

到了秋天，中期选举加上全球各种大事，世界会变成什么样？

And where will the world be in the fall with the midterms, everything going on in the world.

对吧？

Right?

所以到了秋天，很多事情都会变得模糊又复杂。

So the fall gets kinda hazy and complicated in a lot of ways.

我觉得埃隆选在现在让SpaceX上市，时机拿捏得刚刚好，正好赶上了市场里这股AI热潮。

I think Elon times SpaceX perfectly in the sense of this, you know, AI bubble fervor we're in in the markets.

我觉得现在根本说不准会发生什么。

And it's I think it's very unclear what happens.

你知道的。

You know?

美联储可能在秋天加息。

The Fed may raise rates in the fall.

有很多因素会让股市变得特别危险。

There's a lot of things that could make the stock market, a really dangerous place.

你觉得这最终会对整个AI行业产生影响吗？

Do you think that ultimately this has implications for the AI trade at large?

我的意思是，如果OpenAI传递的信号是市场需求不足、热度不够、我们还没准备好，那这说明AI整体市场要出问题，还是只是OpenAI一家的问题？

I mean, if the signal we're getting from OpenAI is there isn't enough demand out there, there isn't enough excitement or hype or we're we're not ready, Does that mean that we're headed for some problems in the AI market at large, or is this more of an OpenAI specific issue?

我觉得这是OpenAI自身的问题。

I think it's an OpenAI thing.

我觉得这些公司根本还没准备好，它们内部的混乱程度，比外界看到的要严重得多，哪怕是对密切关注它们的人也是如此。

I think these companies are just not ready, and they're way more chaotic than they look even on the outside, even to people following them.

他们还是初创公司。

They're startups still.

他们还没有建立起上市公司应有的那种严谨体系。

They don't have all of the rigor in place that you need as a public company.

OpenAI的信息披露一团糟，你知道的，萨姆根本没持股。

OpenAI's disclosures are a mess, right, with you know, Sam owns no equity.

他们投资了自己正在合作的方方面面。

They're invested in all these things that they're doing deals with.

公司治理乱七八糟。

The governance is all over the place.

如果你是证交会的人，想搞清楚这家公司到底怎么回事，简直太复杂了。

I mean, it's it's just a very complicated company to try to, like, make sense of if you're just like the SEC.

所以我觉得他们大概只会不断放出模糊信号，比如‘我们马上就要做了’。

So think they're probably just gonna keep sending smoke signals out, you know, of like, oh, we're gonna do it now.

哦，不会吧。

Oh, no.

我们现在就要行动了。

We're gonna do it now.

像Anthropic也会这么做，我们确实是在探索未知的领域。

And, like, Anthropic will do the same thing, and we are in uncharted territory.

我是说，这在AI和AI投资领域一直都很常见，但现在感觉尤其如此，对吧？

I mean, I feel like that's always the case with AI and, the AI trade, but it really feels that way now, doesn't it?

我们真该从Sam Altman的家里发个信号弹，就像教皇最终决定时机成熟时那样释放出来。

We should literally do a smoke signal from Sam Altman's house, let it out like the Pope when he finally decides that it's time.

这对投资者来说会是一个很好的故事。

That'll be that'll be the right story for investors.

好的。

Okay.

Alex Heath是Sources Newsletter的作者，也是Access Podcast的联合主持人。

Alex Heath is the author of the Sources Newsletter and Co.

Access Podcast的联合主持人。

Of the Access Podcast.

亚历克斯，每次和你聊天都特别开心。

Alex, always great chatting with you.

真的非常感谢你。

Thank you so much.

我也是，每次都很愉快。

Always great.

谢谢，埃德。

Thanks, Ed.

广告回来后，比特币将进入一段艰难时期。

After the break, Bitcoin enters a world of pain.

想了解更多市场洞察，欢迎订阅我的每周通讯《Simply Put》，网址是 simplyput.profgmedia.com。

And for even more markets insights, you can subscribe to my weekly newsletter, Simply Put, at simplyput.profgmedia.com.

本节目由Odoo赞助。

Support for the show comes from Odoo.

如果你的公司还在用五个不同的应用、十二个浏览器标签页，外加一份没人敢碰的电子表格，那确实是时候换Odoo了。

If your business runs on five different apps, 12 browser tabs, and one spreadsheet that everyone's afraid to touch, it's probably time for Odoo.

Odoo 是一款一体化的商业管理软件，能把您业务的每个环节都整合到一个强大又易用的平台上。

Odoo is an all in one business management software that connects every part of your business into one powerful, easy to use platform.

这样一来，您就不用在各个孤立的系统之间来回切换，整个企业都能实时协同运作。

So instead of wasting time switching between disconnected systems, your entire business works together in real time.

团队效率更高，数据更准确，您也能真正专注于业务增长。

Your team moves faster, your data stays accurate, and you can actually focus on growing your business.

用一个统一的系统来管理您的全部业务。

Let one unified system run your entire business.

从第一个潜在客户到最终收款，所有流程都在一个地方无缝衔接。

From the first opportunity to the final payment, everything works together in one place.

无论您是小企业，还是在运营大型业务，Odoo 都提供一个灵活的平台，能随着您一起成长。

Whether you're a small business or managing a large operation, Odoo gives you one flexible platform built to grow with you.

现在就去 odoo.com/gmarket 免费试用。

Try today for free at odoo.com/gmarket.

网址是 odoo.com/gmarket。

That's odoo.com/gmarket.

一、二、三。

One, two, three.

我是单口喜剧演员，约翰·马尔科·苏雷西。

I'm stand up comedian, John Marco Suresi.

我是演员兼模特，拉塞尔·丹尼尔斯。

And I'm actor penis model, Russell Daniels.

《生活的阴暗面》是我们做的播客，每期请嘉宾聊聊他们有多惨。

The Downside is our podcast where we bring on guests to talk about how miserable their lives are.

说实话，日子一点都没变好。

Because let's face it, things are not getting better.

每期节目，我们都会聊我们自己、嘉宾们，还有这个世界到底哪里出了问题。

Every episode, we talk about what's wrong with our lives, our guests' lives, the world

但聊得挺有意思的。

But in a fun way.

总之，听完之后，你会觉得自己的生活其实还不错。

Bottom line is you're gonna walk away feeling better about your life.

我们请过好多有趣的嘉宾。

We've had so many cool guests.

凯莱布·哈隆。

Caleb Huron.

贝西·菲利普斯。

Busy Phillips.

斯塔夫罗斯·哈尔基亚斯。

Stavros Halkias.

拉弗恩·考克斯。

Laverne Cox.

哈桑·派克。

Hassan Piker.

阿拉娜·格拉瑟。

Alana Glaser.

我保证你会过得特别开心。

I promise you're gonna have a good time.

现在为您带来的是Vox媒体播客网络。

Now on the Vox Media Podcast Network.

欢迎收听《Downside》。

This is the Downside.

普通美国人每年在衣服上花1700美元，很多人花得还远不止这个数。

The average American spends $1,700 a year on clothes and a lot of us are spending way more than that.

但本周在《Net Worth and Chill》节目中，我会教你如何在不牺牲风格的前提下，避免为衣橱多花冤枉钱。

But this week on Net Worth and Chill, I'm breaking down exactly how to stop overpaying for your wardrobe without sacrificing your style.

因为从跟踪你上网行为的像素，到制造焦虑的限时促销，再到网红带货的套路，总有人在想办法掏空你的钱包。

Because between the tracking pixels following you around the internet, the FOMO drops, and the influencer halls, someone is always trying to get your money.

我会分享我那些省钱买大牌的秘诀，为什么二手购物正迎来前所未有的热潮，还有我买新衣服前必问自己的那条原则。

I'm sharing my best kept secrets for scoring designer pieces for less, why secondhand shopping is having its biggest moment ever, and the one rule I use before buying anything new.

另外，我还会回答你们的问题，比如：手头一分钱没有怎么穿得体面？如何用最少的钱升级衣橱？还有哪些细节真正暴露了一个人的财富水平。

Plus, I'm answering your questions including how to dress well when you have $0 to spend, how to upgrade your wardrobe for as little as possible, and what signs actually give away that someone is truly wealthy.

你可以在任何播客平台收听，或者在youtube.com/yourrichbff观看视频。

Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch on youtube.com/yourrichbff.

我们回来了，继续关注Prof G Markets。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

比特币价格正在暴跌。

The price of Bitcoin is plummeting.

截至目前，抛售势头完全没有放缓的迹象。

And as of now, the sell off is showing no signs of stopping.

就在过去一个月里，比特币从大约七万三千美元跌到了六万美元。

In just the past month, Bitcoin has fallen from around $73,000 to $60,000.

上周，它跌到了2024年大选前的最低点。

Last week, it hit its lowest point since October 2024 before the election.

尽管特朗普政府支持加密货币，但今天的投资者却踪影全无。

And despite the Trump administration's pro crypto agenda, investors today are nowhere to be found.

总的来说，比特币已经抹去了过去十八个月的所有涨幅，过去一年累计下跌超过百分之四十。

All told, Bitcoin has erased more than eighteen months of gains, and it's down over 40% in the past year.

因此，为了深入了解加密市场这次崩盘的来龙去脉，我们采访了《金融时报》的专栏作家杰米玛·凯利。

So for more on this implosion in the crypto markets, we are speaking with Jemima Kelly, columnist at the Financial Times.

杰米玛，非常感谢你参与我们的节目。

Jemima, thank you so much for joining us.

今年二月，我们就已经看到加密市场出现明显疲软。

Back in February, we were seeing a lot of weakness in the crypto markets.

当时比特币跌到了七万美元左右，那已经让人觉得非常糟糕了。

Bitcoin took a leg down to around 70,000 ish, and that seemed really bad at the time.

你当时写了一篇专栏，认为比特币接下来还会遭遇更大的下跌。

And you wrote this column basically saying that Bitcoin was in your view due for even more pain.

而事实确实如你所料，现在正在发生。

And that is indeed exactly what we're seeing.

现在比特币已经跌到了六万美元。

We're now down to 60,000.

从最高点约十二万美元算起，价格几乎腰斩了。

It's basically been cut in half since its highs of around 120,000.

我们先聊聊你对当前加密市场走势的看法。

Let's just start with your reaction to what we're seeing here in the crypto markets.

我的意思是，正如我写的，当比特币还在七万美元的时候，我就觉得它高了七万。

I mean, yeah, as I wrote, I still felt that Bitcoin was 70,000 too high when it was at 70,000.

所以现在我觉得它高了六万。

So I now think it's about 60,000 too high.

从基本面来看，比特币根本没什么价值，全靠信念支撑，迟早会归零。

I think that fundamentally, there's nothing there because it's all just belief and therefore eventually we'll get to zero.

我从来不会去预测具体什么时候会发生，但我写二月那篇文章，是因为我感觉比特币已经走到最后阶段了。

I've never been someone who wants to kind of, you know, say when that's going to happen, but it definitely has felt to me the reason I wrote that column in February is because it has felt to me that this is kind of the the kind of we're getting to the last bit of Bitcoin.

我不会冒险断言今年就会归零。

And I'm not gonna stick my neck out and say it's gonna happen this year that we're going to zero.

我觉得没那么快。

I don't think it will happen that soon.

但即便现在加密环境这么友好，价格还是找不到任何支撑，这说明它只会继续一路下跌。

But the fact that we have this incredibly friendly crypto environment and it still kind of doesn't seem to be finding any way of, like, any support does suggest that that we're heading down and down and down from here.

你的观点是六万美元也高了六万，实际价值应该是零，对很多人来说，这真是个惊人的说法。

Your view is that $60,000 is $60,000 too high, that actually the true value is zero, which for many, that would be an extremely striking statement.

你为什么觉得它一文不值？

Why do you believe that this is that this is worth nothing?

比特币除了信念之外，没有任何实质支撑。

There is nothing that underpins Bitcoin other than belief.

它完全建立在信念之上。

It is built on sheer belief.

当然，股市和其他市场也在一定程度上依赖信念，我们总是根据资产的历史表现和对未来增长、未来回报的预期来判断价格。

And, obviously, stock markets and other markets are built to some extent on belief, and we're constantly thinking about a price of an asset is based on past performance and expectations for future performance, future growth, future returns.

所以，任何资产的价格里都难免带点投机成分。

And so obviously there's always a speculative element within any kind of asset price.

但对比特币来说，就只剩下投机和加密货币了。

With Bitcoin, there is only speculation or crypto.

有些人不喜欢把比特币归到加密货币里，因为他们想靠这个来制造比特币的稀缺性。

And people don't like Bitcoin to be lumped into crypto because that's their way of making Bitcoin scarce.

这就引出了下一个问题。

That gets me to the next problem.

根本没有稀缺性。

There's no scarcity.

加密货币的数量是无限的。

There is an unlimited number of cryptocurrencies.

如果没有稀缺性，东西就很难有价值，因为如果到处都是，谁还会愿意花钱买呢？

So you can't really have value without there being scarcity because otherwise, why would someone pay for something if there's an unlimited amount of it?

人们为了制造比特币的稀缺感，强调它只有两千一百万枚，这个上限从一开始就被写进了代码，于是他们声称比特币和其他加密货币不一样。

So the way that people try to make Bitcoin scarce, but which it is, because there'll only ever be 21,000,000 Bitcoins, that's that was baked into the code in the beginning, is by saying that Bitcoin's different from all the other cryptocurrencies.

从先发优势来看，它确实有点不同，但除此之外，其实也没多大区别，也许它有网络效应之类的。

It is insofar as it's got the first mover advantage, but apart from that, it really isn't and it maybe has a network effect and everything.

但归根结底，我们还是在说：比特币不一样，因为大家对它的信心更强。

But again, that's what we're saying there is Bitcoin's different because it has more belief.

它的可信度更久、更稳固，比其他币要强得多。

It's more established that the belief in it is more established than the others.

所以，还是没有稀缺性，也没有任何基本面支撑它的价格，没有底线，也没有支撑。

So again, there's no scarcity and there's nothing fundamentally underpinning that price, there's no bottom, there's no floor.

所以人们说，它就像黄金，而黄金本身也是投机性的。

So people say, oh, it's like gold and gold is speculative.

没错。

Sure.

黄金确实有一部分是投机，但你看，我戴的金饰就是实实在在的。

Gold is partly speculative, but people I'm wearing gold.

我们的iPhone里也用到了黄金。

We have gold in our iPhones.

黄金是有实际用途的。

Gold is useful.

人们喜欢戴黄金饰品。

People like to wear gold.

它是真实存在的东西。

It's a real thing.

而比特币和加密货币，说白了就是一串数字代码。

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies just represent digital strings of digits.

它们就只是这些数字串。

That's all they are.

但人们给这些数字串赋予了价值。

And they are but people have assigned value to those strings of digits.

一旦人们不再相信，它就会一文不值，因为除此之外什么都没有。

And once people once people stop believing, then it will go to nothing because that's all there is.

底下再没有别的东西了。

There's nothing else under there.

我一直想知道，人们到底会在什么时候做出决定？

I've been wondering, at what point will people decide?

我的意思是，我觉得比特币也是一种很不稳定的资产。

Because I I mean, I find Bitcoin to be a precarious asset as well.

我一直想，人们到底会在什么时候意识到？

I've been wondering at what point will people decide, you know what?

我们不再相信这个东西了。

We don't believe in this thing anymore.

这就是那个时刻吗？

Is this that moment?

我觉得那个时刻不会一下子突然到来。

I don't think that that moment is gonna happen all in one go.

我觉得那个时刻已经开始出现了，最后会迎来一场崩盘，所有人都争着逃出市场。

I think that moment is is starting to happen, and there will be a final kind of death spiral in which everyone quickly runs tries to run for the exit.

我们还没完全到那一步，因为比特币还没彻底崩盘。

We're not we don't seem to be completely there yet because Bitcoin isn't in complete freefall.

加密货币也还没彻底崩盘。

Cryptocurrencies aren't in complete freefall.

有太多既得利益者会出手干预，这才是关键。

There are a huge number of vested interests who will I mean, that's the thing.

所以我才说它是个没有领导者的庞氏骗局，它介于庞氏骗局、金字塔骗局和多层次营销之间——靠不断拉新人进来维持，而且在加密货币里，特别需要一大批人死死抱着不卖，死撑着不放手。

That's why I consider it a headless Ponzi scheme because it's or or kind of akin to somewhere between a Ponzi scheme, pyramid scheme, multilevel marketing scheme because it relies on constantly recruiting new people, and it requires also in in crypto's case, it really requires a lot of people who kind of stay and hold on huddle, you know, hold on for dear life and, you know, don't sell.

只有足够多的人不卖，崩盘才不会发生。

And you really need people to not sell in order for the death trial to not occur.

现在迈克尔·塞拉成了比特币圈里最有分量的人物，我都不知该怎么称呼他了，但他确实是全球持有比特币最多的人。

You've now got Michael Saylor who's like the big dog of bit of bit I don't know what to call him, but he is the kind of biggest holder of Bitcoin in the world.

他把自己的公司彻底转型成了一家比特币持有公司。

He, you know, turned his company into a Bitcoin holding company.

他现在说，打算抛售超过十亿美元的比特币。

He's now saying he's gonna sell sell over a billion dollars worth of Bitcoin.

所以，我不觉得现在就是关键时刻，但我觉得，每次加密货币大幅上涨时，都会出现一种说法。

So it's not I don't think it's, like, necessarily now, but I think that what what we're seeing is crypt each time crypto has had a big run up, there's been a narrative.

总有个理由解释为什么价格在涨，而且确实有原因。

There's been a story for why it's going up, and there has.

每次都有个说得通的解释。

There's been a reason.

对吧？

Right?

2017年的时候，大家疯炒ICO。

So you had in 2017, you had ICO mania.

那时候出现了首次代币发行，也就是ICO，很多人简直是在凭空赚钱。

So you had these initial coin offerings, ICOs, that basically people were just, like, making money out of thin air.

人人都在发财，大家随便编个代币，套现就跑。

Everyone was getting rich, and people were just, like, coming up with these ridiculous tokens and running off with the money.

因为人们得用以太坊，也就是以太坊网络的原生加密货币来购买，所以以太坊价格暴涨，其他所有加密货币也都跟着涨。

And and because people had to buy Ethereum or Ether, the the the cryptocurrency native to the the Ethereum network, that was going up massively in value, and all the other cryptocurrencies were going up with it.

所以2017年那波大行情，背后就有这个原因。

So there was that reason for the kind of big boom in 2017.

后来又一波上涨，是靠NFT，也就是非同质化代币推动的。

Then you had a later boom was fueled by the NFTs, non fungible tokens.

如果你还记得，那时候还有元宇宙、Web3，大家突然都觉得天啊。

So if you remember that and the metaverse and web web three and people were suddenly convinced that, oh my gosh.

这简直是互联网的未来。

Like, this is the future of the Internet.

我觉得那是我这辈子见过最荒唐的市场阶段。

I think that was the dumbest era of markets in in my lifetime.

是的。

Yeah.

说实话，NFT和ICO真的很难分清楚哪个更靠谱。

Well, NFTs and ICOs, to be honest, it's really hard to know to, like, fit, like

界限很模糊。

Fine line.

ICO可能比NFT还糟，不过两者都不怎么样。

ICOs arguably worse than NFTs, but, yeah, they're both pretty bad.

但最近这次价格飙升，其实是赌特朗普会成为所谓的‘加密总统’，尽管几年前他第一次当总统时，明明说过自己不相信比特币和加密货币。

But the most recent run up in prices was a bet on Donald Trump basically being this, like, crypto president despite the fact that, obviously, a few years ago when he was president the first time around, he said that he doesn't believe in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

可突然之间，他好像跟一些大型加密企业高管见了面，这些人或许愿意买他的加密币，顺便给他投点钱。

Suddenly, it seemed like he had some meetings with some some some kind of big crypto executives who might have been willing to maybe buy his crypto coin and maybe give him some money.

于是他立马就被捧成了‘比特币总统’，说要让美国成为全球加密货币之都。

Suddenly, he was gonna be the, like, Bitcoin president, make America the crypto capital of the world.

可就在这种背景下，加密货币的实际表现却很糟糕。

And in that context, we've seen crypto actually doing badly.

所以当你不断看到这些叙事逐渐崩塌时，就会开始失去信心，心里不免想：等等，这不对劲。

And so it's kind of like that was like when you keep seeing these narratives unraveling, there starts to be like a loss of faith because it's like, well, hang on.

这本该是那个关键时刻。

This was meant to be the time.

人们现在把比特币放进ETF，放进401(k)退休账户。

Know, people are putting Bitcoin into their ETFs, into their 401ks.

这些高管们也都被赦免、出狱了，因为当时环境对加密货币极其宽容。可即便如此，加密货币不仅没崛起，反而比特朗普上台前更差，这难道不是个大问题吗？接下来还能讲什么故事？

All of these executives have been like, you know, pardoned and released from prison because like Donald Trump was in in that setting, in that like extremely permissive setting, if crypto is still not thriving and actually doing worse than it was before Trump came in, that seems like a kind of problem because what's the next story like?

我们是不是已经讲不出新故事了？

And we have we kind of run out of stories?

我觉得我们确实讲不出新故事了，因为大家渐渐失望了——每次冒出一个新故事，最后都化为泡影，然后加密市场又崩盘一次。

And I think perhaps we have run out of stories because people are becoming a bit little bit disillusioned because each time there's a new story, it turns out that it kind of turns to nothing and then crypto crashes again.

所以，我觉得加密货币的故事已经讲完了，这确实是个问题。

So, yeah, I think I think we've kind of run out of stories for crypto, and I think that's an issue.

杰米玛·凯利是《金融时报》的专栏作家。

Jemima Kelly is columnist at The Financial Times.

Jemima，非常感谢你抽出时间。

Jemima, thank you so much for your time.

谢谢你们邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

如果你担心我们现在处于泡沫中，我有个消息可能不会让你安心。

If you were worried we're in a bubble, I have some news for you that probably won't help.

佛罗里达大学金融学教授王宝莲发表了一篇新文章，指出今年第一季度的盈利被人为抬高了约12%。

A new article by Bao Lian Wang, a finance professor at the University of Florida, reveals that first quarter earnings this year were artificially inflated by roughly 12%.

这怎么可能呢？

How is that possible?

原因出在一个奇怪的会计准则上，叫ASU 2016-01。

Well, it's all because of a strange accounting standard known as ASU twenty sixteen zero one.

根据这项规定，公司需要评估自己持有的私人风险投资的价值，并将这些投资的收益或亏损计入利润表中的‘其他收入’项目。

Under this rule, companies are asked to measure the value of their own private venture investments and then report those returns or losses on those investments in the other income section of their income statement.

过去，这些数字基本可以忽略不计。

Now historically, those numbers have been rounding errors.