OpenAI 财务数据泄露——亏损数额惊人

本节目由Odoo赞助支持。

Support for the show comes from Odoo.

经营企业需要你倾尽所有，但市面上很多号称能帮你减负的工具，根本没法好好协同工作。

Running a business takes everything you've got, and a lot of the tools out there that are supposed to make your life easier just aren't great at talking to each other.

结果你只能在十几个不同的应用之间来回切换，只为维持基本运转。

And that means you end up having to toggle between a dozen different apps and services just to keep the lights on.

别再这样了。

Enough of that.

现在有了Odoo，这是一个全功能、高度整合的平台，或许真能帮你把所有事情搞定。

Now there is Odoo, the all in one fully integrated platform that might actually help you get it all done.

成千上万的企业已经换了系统，你为什么不免费试试Odoo呢？去odoo.com吧。

Thousands of businesses have made the switch, so why not you try ODDO for free at ODDO dot com.

网址是odoo.com。

That's odoo.com.

本节目由Odoo赞助支持。

Support for this show comes from ODDO.

做生意已经够难了，干嘛还要用一堆互不相通的软件给自己添堵？

Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other?

这就是Odoo。

Introducing Odoo.

你这辈子再也不需要别的商业软件了。

It's the only business software you'll ever need.

它是一个全功能、高度整合的平台，能让你的工作轻松不少。

It's an all in one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier.

客户管理、财务、库存、电商，还有更多功能。

CRM, accounting, inventory, ecommerce, and more.

最棒的是什么？

And the best part?

Odoo用不到几分之一的价钱，就取代了多个昂贵的系统。

Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost.

所以才有成千上万的企业选择了它。

That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch.

那你为什么不来试试呢？

So why not you?

去 odoo.com 免费试用 Odoo。

Try Odoo for free at odoo dot com.

就是 odoo.com。

That's odoo.com.

本节目由 Odoo 赞助支持。

Support for this show comes from Odoo.

Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other?

Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other?

Introducing Odoo.

Introducing Odoo.

It's the only business software you'll ever need.

It's the only business software you'll ever need.

It's an all in one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier.

It's an all in one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier.

客户关系管理、会计、库存、电子商务，还有更多功能。

CRM, accounting, inventory, ecommerce, and more.

最棒的是什么？

And the best part?

Odoo 以不到十分之一的价格，取代了多个昂贵的系统。

Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost.

所以才有成千上万家企业选择了切换到 Odoo。

That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch.

那你为什么不来试试呢？

So why not you?

去 odoo.com 免费试用 Odoo。

Try Odoo for free at oddo.com.

就是 odoo.com。

That's odoo.com.

一万七千家。

17,000.

我感觉自己真的要试试了。

I feel like I'm gonna try.

货币市场太疯狂了。

Money market's mad.

如果钱是邪恶的，那栋楼就是地狱。

If money is evil, then that building is hell.

节目还得继续。

Show goes on.

诺亚的手表价格真是让人心酸。

The price of Noah's watch is so sad.

欢迎来到Prof G市场。

Welcome to Prof G Markets.

我是埃德·埃尔森。

I'm Ed Elson.

今天是6月17日。

It is June 17.

我们来看看昨天市场的关键数据。

Let's check-in on yesterday's market vitals.

标普500和纳斯达克都下跌了，因为芯片股集体抛售。

The S and P five hundred and the Nasdaq declined as chip stocks sold off.

与此同时，道指再创历史新高。

Meanwhile, the Dow hit another all time high.

布伦特原油价格继续下滑。

Brent crude fell lower.

由于今天下午即将公布美联储的利率决议，十年期国债收益率有所下降。

The yield on ten year treasury slid ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision due this afternoon.

此外，美联储维持利率不变的概率高达99%。

On casualty, the odds that the Fed holds rates steady are at 99%.

今天早些时候，SpaceX股价一度飙升15%，但后来大部分涨幅又回吐了。

And finally, SpaceX stock popped another 15% early in the day before paring back most of those gains.

目前它的估值已经接近亚马逊了。

It is now roughly as valuable as Amazon.

这个我们待会儿再说。

More on that later.

好的。

Okay.

还有哪些大事发生？

What else is happening?

OpenAI的财务数据刚被曝光，数字简直惊人。

OpenAI's financials were just leaked, and the numbers are wild.

去年公司营收达到了130亿美元，比2024年增长了超过250%。

The company hit $13,000,000,000 in revenue last year, up more than 250% from 2024.

但让所有人议论最多的，是OpenAI去年亏了多少钱。

But the number that has everyone talking is how much OpenAI lost last year.

答案是390亿美元。

The answer, $39,000,000,000.

与此同时，公司刚刚提交了IPO申请，计划今年晚些时候上市，这自然让人忍不住问：这样的烧钱方式能撑得住吗？

Meanwhile, the company has just filed to IPO and plans to go public later this year, which begs the obvious question, is this kind of spending sustainable?

为了深入分析这些数据，我们请到了最早曝光这则消息的人——正是他发现了这些财务文件，他就是《Where's Your Ed At》通讯的作者、《Better Offline》播客的主持人埃德·齐特隆。

So to dig into these numbers, we are speaking with the man who actually broke this news, the guy who found the financials, and that is Ed Zitron, author of the Where's Your Ed At Newsletter and host of the Better Offline Podcast.

埃德，很高兴见到你。

Ed, it's great to see you.

感谢你抽出时间参加我们的对话。

Thank you for joining us.

我知道你今天特别忙，毕竟你刚刚才刚发布这些财务数据。

Once again, I know you've had a busy day because you literally just reported, these financials.

我不会问你是怎么拿到这些文件的，但我知道《金融时报》已经独立核实并审计过这些内容。

I'm not gonna ask how you got your hands on them, but what I what I do know is it's been independently verified, audited by the Financial Times.

这些数据是真实可靠的。

These are real numbers.

这些数据是你发现的。

You found these numbers.

给我们详细讲讲吧。

Take us through them.

关于这些财务数据，我们该了解些什么？

What should we know about these financials?

去年，OpenAI 花了大约七百亿美金，收入只有十三亿左右，年底手头还剩两千二百亿美元现金。

So last year, OpenAI spent about $34,000,000,000 to make about 13.01, sorry, o $7,000,000,000 and, had about $22,000,000,000 in cash at the end of the year.

亏了大约两千一百亿美元。

Lost about $21,000,000,000.

那个三千八千三百九十亿的数字，我只能说完全是数字游戏。

That $3,839,000,000,000 dollar number is what I would describe as gap voodoo.

资产负债表上有些非常奇怪的地方，我以后的节目会详细拆解。

There is some very strange stuff, and I'll be going into this in future episodes, going on in the balance sheet and everything with this company.

他们去年从非营利机构转成了营利性公司，但依然没赚到钱，所以净亏损的数字显得特别反常。

They turned from a nonprofit to a for profit, though they've remained profitless, last year, which means that they have their net loss is quite strange.

亏损额高达三千八百五十亿美元。

It's like $38,500,000,000.

但我最想强调的是，他们从主营业务里亏了两千一百亿，而在销售和市场上的投入更是天文数字。

But the number I like to come back to is they lost $21,000,000,000 from operations, and they spent astronomical amounts on sales and marketing.

他们在收入成本上花了75亿美元，在研发上花了191.8亿美元。

They spent $7,500,000,000 on cost of revenue, $19,180,000,000 in r and d.

但那个57.3亿美元的销售和市场费用，我特别想重点说说，为什么呢？

But that sales and marketing cost, that $5,730,000,000 is one I really like to hammer on because what?

这简直太离谱了，抱歉，我真不知道该怎么说。

This is like it's just there's just like it's just like, excuse me.

那你们到底花了多少钱？

Well, how much did you spend?

我觉得这里有可能有一部分费用，其实是通过收入分成转嫁给微软了。

Because the thing is here, there could be I think that there's a potential that that could be partly passed through to Microsoft with revenue share.

我真的不清楚。

I truly don't know.

这纯粹是我个人的猜测。

This is just me guessing.

但不管怎样，这都是一笔惊人的开支。

But, nevertheless, that's an extreme cost.

但还有一件事要注意，就是8.67亿美元。

But another thing to note is $867,000,000.

去年OpenAI的收入中，大约6.6%来自软银。

So about 6.6% of OpenAI's revenue last year came from SoftBank.

但我真不知道这笔钱是干嘛用的。

Now I truly don't know what that's for.

他们有个项目叫Crystal Intelligence。

They have a thing called Crystal Intelligence.

我不是在开玩笑。

I'm not kidding.

名字确实就叫这个，拼写也完全一样。

It's actually called that, spelled the same way too.

但这个数字很让人担心，因为单靠一个合作伙伴就贡献了这么大一笔收入，而我猜这根本没怎么推高他们的运营成本。

And but that's a very alarming number because that's a huge amount of revenue from one partner that I don't think was probably causing their cogs to spike at all.

这么一大笔收入居然来自同一个合作伙伴，很可能根本不是因为Crystal Intelligence这个产品在运营——我猜它根本还没上线。

That's a large amount of that revenue coming from a single partner that is more than likely just I I mean, I can assume not like, Crystal Intelligence is not launched anywhere.

这产品花了好几个月才总算推出。

It's only it took a few months to even get out the door.

它是在2025年2月宣布的。

It was announced in February 2025.

直到年底才听到一点消息，但他们还是付了将近10亿美元。

Took until the end of the year to hear anything about it, but they still paid nearly $1,000,000,000.

这非常令人担忧，也说明OpenAI的增长可能没我们想的那么快。

It's very concerning, and it also suggests that OpenAI's growth is not quite as fast as we believe too.

我们再回过头看看亏损情况，因为这对投资者来说最关键的是：他们到底烧了多少钱。

Just going back to the the losses here because this seems to be the most important thing for investors to understand is how much money are they burning really.

我看到的数字是，你们和《金融时报》各自独立报告的净亏损，我知道你们都看了同一份文件，但上面数据太多，有点让人糊涂。

The number that I saw, the net loss that was reported by you and by the Financial Times independently, I know you guys looked at the same document, but there are lot of numbers on there and it gets a little confusing.

我看到的数字是净亏损385亿美元，比去年增加了八倍。

The number I saw was 38 and a half billion dollars in net losses, up eightfold year over year.

这里面确实有些细节，就像你提到的，如果算上利息收入和利息支出这些因素，数字就涨到了600亿美元。

Now there were there was some nuance in here, because as you pointed out, when you take into account these other factors like interest income and interest expense, the number goes up to $60,000,000,000.

你提到他们把那些项目剔除后，数字就降低了。

And you pointed out that they lowered that number by taking that stuff out.

但《金融时报》还采访了一位了解内情的人士。

But then the Financial Times also spoke with someone, quote, familiar with the matter.

这位了解内情的人说，这个数字这么高，是因为随着OpenAI估值上升，他们不得不确认一笔300亿美元的投资者权利费用，我理解这其实相当于股权激励支出。

This person who was familiar with the matter said that the reason that that number was so high was because as OpenAI's valuation went up, they had to create this $30,000,000,000 charge in investor rights, which I kind of understood to be stock based compensation.

所以他们的观点是，如果剔除这一项，实际的净亏损大约在80亿美元左右。

And so their argument was when you adjust for that, the real net loss is closer to $8,000,000,000 in losses.

这些说法确实让人很困惑，我自己也没完全搞明白。

All of this is obviously very confusing, and I don't fully understand it.

所以我只想听听你的看法：我们该怎么理清这些数字？这么多数据、这么多细节，我真不确定它们到底意味着什么。

So I just wanna get your view on how do we make sense of this because there's a lot of numbers, a lot of nuance, and I'm not fully sure what it all means.

我并没有联系过那位了解内情的人士。

So I did not speak to the person familiar with the matter.

我也不知道他们是谁。

I do not know who they are.

我觉得这纯属胡扯。

I think that's wank.

我就直说了啊。

I'm just gonna be completely honest.

你花了三千四百亿，才赚了一千三百零七亿。

You spent you spent $34,000,000,000 to make $13,070,000,000.

你可不是只亏了八百亿。

You didn't just lose $8,000,000,000.

别闹了。

Stop.

我看到那条评论，直接笑出声了，就知道一堆人要炸锅。

Like, I read that comment, I did a big chuckle, and I knew all the boosters would all get hot and heavy.

他们肯定说：这不就是铁证吗？

They'd be like, the proof we need.

真正该看的，是实际的成本和实际的收入。

The numbers to look at are the actual costs and the actual revenues.

这些公司，尤其是OpenAI，一直过着奢侈的生活，把数字搞得乱七八糟。

These companies, OpenAI in particular, have lived high on the hog, spreading weirdness around numbers.

真正该关注的是他们烧钱的速度。

The numbers to focus on on how much they're burning.

光是日常管理和行政开支，就花了15.7亿美元，全都是付给人的工资。

$1,570,000,000 just on general and administrative, just on people.

而且我都不确定这笔钱是否涵盖了所有员工。

And I don't even think that that includes all the people.

我对这些细节也不太清楚，因为没拿到财务报表里的具体定义。

It doesn't I don't have any other knowledge as to this because I don't have the definitions of these terms from within the sheets.

但关键是，这家公司成本一路飙升，远超我们之前的想象。

But the the thing is here is this is a company with spiraling costs, dramatic costs, way beyond what we thought.

他们把研发费用混在一起报，我觉得这是故意的，就想让人觉得这只是暂时现象。

There is spending, and they put research and development in there, and they market that, I believe, personal belief here, because they want people to think that this is a temporary situation.

他们想让人相信，等研发投入够了，这些开支自然就会降下来。

This is something that will go away, that when there's enough r and d, they can stop.

不对。

No.

不对。

No.

不对。

No.

研发费用涨得太高了。

R and d number going up very high.

所有开支都在上涨。

Everything is increasing.

每一项成本都在上升。

Every cost is increasing.

我觉得这清楚地揭示了这些公司内部的真实状况，实在让人担忧。

And I think it's just a kind of a frightening sign of what the innards of these companies look like.

你可以这样想。

And think about it like this.

OpenAI 在马斯克的庭审中已经表示，仅在2026年这一年，他们就要花500亿美元在计算资源上。

OpenAI has already said as part of the Musk trial that they're gonna spend $50,000,000,000 on compute this year alone in 2026.

他们的亏损将会达到惊人的程度。

Their losses are going to be astronomical.

我并没有接触到2026年的具体数据，但根据目前的趋势，他们的烧钱速度可能高达8.09万亿美元。

I don't have any privy knowledge to the 2026 numbers, but based on these, they could be burning $8,090,000,000,000 dollars.

这真的让人感到毛骨悚然。

It's genuinely it's genuinely horrifying.

我很庆幸能在S-1文件发布前讲出这个故事，因为我觉得，人们在这些数据被包装之前，有必要看清这家公司的真实面貌。

I'm glad that I got to tell this story before the s one is filed because I think people need to see what what the innards of this company look like before they get a chance to massage them.

是的。

Yeah.

我同意，他们其中一个最离谱的数字就是销售和市场开支涨到了57亿美元。

I I agree that they're actually one of the craziest numbers was the sales and marketing number up to $5,700,000,000.

一年之内就飙升了418%。

It jumped 418% in one year.

这占了总收入的44%。

That's 44% of total revenue.

作为参考，Facebook的营销费用在2008年峰值时也只占收入的28%。

And we just look for for context when you look at Facebook's marketing, it peaked at 28% of revenue in 2008.

谷歌在2003年最高也就到11%。

Google's hit 11% in 2003.

而OpenAI现在已经到了44%。

OpenAI is at 44%.

所以他们花的巨额资金不是为了研发AI，而是为了卖AI、让它赚钱。

So they're spending astronomical amounts of money not to build AI, but to sell AI, to make it profitable.

这确实是个严重的问题。

And that does seem to be a real problem.

拿SpaceX的IPO来对比一下。

I mean, just looking at the SpaceX IPO as a comparison point.

S-1文件公布的时候，我写过相关文章，当时很多人也在讨论。

When when the s one came out, I wrote about it, and a lot of people talked about it.

我猜你也讨论过这个话题。

I'm sure you talked about it as well.

从盈利的角度来看，这些数字并不好看。

The numbers did not look great from a profitability perspective.

我们当时管这叫‘印钞机’，亏钱，等等，因为当时就是这样，现在还是这样。

We called it a money furnace, cash, etcetera, etcetera, because that's what was happening and continues to happen.

这家公司正在巨额亏损地开发AI，还有火箭，但真正亏钱的是AI。

The company is losing astronomical amounts of money building mostly AI, also rockets, but AI is the real money loser.

可现在股价却一路飙升。

And yet the stock is flying right now.

它的市值现在已经和亚马逊差不多了。

It's as valuable as Amazon currently.

所以我很好奇，等OpenAI的S1最终公布时，你觉得会发生什么？

So I guess I'd be interested to hear what you think will happen, when the s one finally does come out for OpenAI.

也许这些数字根本没人放在心上，或者，也许到时候大家就会担心了。

Maybe these numbers aren't concerning to people, or or maybe they will be.

我很想听听你的看法。

I'd be interested to hear your views.

如果OpenAI有SpaceX那样的亏损，他们肯定乐开了花。

If OpenAI had SpaceX's losses, they'd be so happy.

但话说回来，SpaceX也没有OpenAI那样的收入，所以谁说得准呢？

But then again, SpaceX doesn't have OpenAI's revenues, so who knows?

我觉得SpaceX能有今天，主要靠马斯克那种现实扭曲力场，还有他能挑动高盛和摩根大通互相较劲。

I think the the reason SpaceX has flown in the way it has is because of the Musk reality distortion field and his ability to play Goldman and JPMorgan against each other.

这两家机构的每个人，都该为自己这么做感到羞愧，明明知道AI收入四年涨三百倍根本是胡扯，还跟着吹。

Both of them everyone everyone there should be ashamed of themselves for pumping this for what they're just like, oh, AI revenue will increase 300 x in four years.

先不管这些了。

Putting all that aside.

说得对。

Yeah.

这两家公司本质上完全不一样。

These are fundamentally different companies.

尽管SpaceX在AI业务上搞得一团糟，但它还有Starlink。

Even though SpaceX has its horrible burning AI element, it still has Starlink.

它还有火箭，也涉足了社交网络，不过我不确定这算不算优势。

It still has the rocket ships, and it also has the social network, but I don't know if I'd say that was a plus.

它依然有个正常运转的生意。

It still has a functioning business.

OpenAI只有ChatGPT和API。

OpenAI has chat GPT and API.

就这些了。

That's it.

他们没法像扯淡那样说，哎，我们有Joni Ives那种玩意儿。

Like, they have they couldn't dance around being like, oh, we got Joni Ives nonsense.

哎，我们有个消费级产品。

Oh, we got, like, a consumer device.

哎，我们打算做个万能应用。

Oh, we got we're gonna do an everything app.

但他们只是绕开一个事实：他们只有一个产品。

But they're just dancing around the fact that they have one product.

他们只有一个产品，外加一些衍生功能。

They have one product with a few offshoots.

他们没有其他方式可以投入更多资金来赚钱。

They don't have ways of investing more money to make money.

你刚才提到了盈利问题。

You mentioned profitability earlier.

我觉得这根本不可能。

I don't think that's possible.

他们的成本太高了，我觉得任何一家AI公司都不可能实现盈利。

I don't like, their costs are so severe that I don't think profitability is actually possible for any AI lab.

我觉得Anthropic的情况也会同样糟糕。

I think that Anthropic is gonna look similarly horrible.

我觉得市场不知怎么的，还以为情况不会这么糟。

I think that the markets believe for some reason that things won't look this bad.

我今天一整天都在跟人聊这个，每个人都说：天哪。

I've been speaking to people all day about this, and everyone's saying, wow.

我真没想到会糟到这个地步。

I didn't know it would be that bad.

我忍不住想笑一笑。

And I genuinely I I gotta laugh a bit.

难道大家以为我在开玩笑？

It's like, did people think I was kidding?

他们是不是觉得我那会儿笑，是因为情况没那么糟？

Did people think I was I was chuckling to just I guess they were bad.

不是的。

No.

当然，情况就是这么糟。

Of course, they were this bad.

我觉得OpenAI和Anthropic既没有马斯克那种敏锐的洞察力，也没有他那种咄咄逼人的作风——不过我得说清楚，我非常反感那种在明知要靠一堆胡扯才能把这玩意儿卖出去的情况下，还非要上市的做法。

So I don't think the OpenAI and Anthropic have the nuance and also the aggressive bully mentality of Musk, though I really deeply dislike, to be clear, to do an IPO with the amount of bullshit that will be necessary to sell this dog.

我不知道他们怎么搞，别忘了，第一代产品还得展示增长前景。

I don't know how the because remember, in the s one, they're also gonna have to do growth trajectory.

他们得说清楚自己未来能发展成什么样。

They're gonna have to say what they could grow into.

我觉得上市会很难。

I think it's I think it's gonna be difficult to float.

理论上他们可以，但考虑到SpaceX是怎么做的，我觉得他们成功的可能性虽然不大，但总比没有强。

I they could theoretically, but I don't considering how SpaceX is done, I think they have a higher chance than none.

不过话说回来，SpaceX当初的数据也不怎么样。

But at the same time, their SpaceX's numbers were bad.

这些数据简直吓人。

These numbers are terrifying.

这些数字太吓人了。

These are scary numbers.

我正在推特上看人们讨论‘COPE奥运会’，有人说其实也没那么糟。

I'm watching the Cope Olympics on Twitter as people like, well, actually, it's okay.

你看到那句话了。

You saw that quote.

你看到那句说八十亿美元的话了。

You saw the quote that said 8,000,000,000.

没关系。

It's okay.

他们其实没花三百四十亿美元。

They didn't actually spend 34,000,000,000.

他们只花了八十亿美元。

They only spent $8,000,000,000.

没关系。

It's okay.

根本没出什么问题。

Nothing bad happened at all.

一点异常都没有。

Nothing weird.

这整个事情太荒谬了，这家公司花了三千四百亿，才赚了一千三百零七亿，而且这当中还有八十六亿，看起来是软银白给的。

It's all very silly because this is a company that spent $34,000,000,000 to make $13,070,000,000 and also 867,000,000 of that was what looks like given to them by SoftBank.

这根本算不上一个稳定或有活力的生意。

And it's that is not a stable or thriving business.

这公司纯粹在疯狂烧钱，而且一点停下来的迹象都没有。

This is a business that is just consuming capital at an alarming rate with no sign of stopping.

今年年初，他们刚融了一千二百二十亿美元。

They just raised a $122,000,000,000 at the beginning of this year.

我不觉得他们是冲着盈利去的。

I don't think they're doing that because they're gonna get profitable.

这家公司一旦上市——他们已经提交了今年秋天上市的计划——估值可能会跟SpaceX差不多，但几乎全靠CEO讲一个让人信服的故事，让足够多的人相信他。

It does seem as though when this company goes out, when it goes public, it appears that it is going to go public, they have filed planners to go public in the fall, the valuation will be similar to SpaceX, almost entirely dependent on the CEO's ability to tell a compelling story that enough people buy into and believe.

埃隆这个人，你确实可以押他一把，因为他一向擅长给市场讲动听的故事，让人相信他的公司能做成什么大事。

Elon is someone that you could arguably bet good money on doing that because he has a proven track record of being an incredible storyteller specifically to the markets on what his companies will achieve.

至于萨姆·阿尔特曼，我不确定他有没有这个本事，能讲出让投资者信服的故事，毕竟数字本身根本撑不起他的野心。

Sam Altman, I'm not sure I back him, to tell a compelling story or to capture the imaginations of investors in the markets because it's clear that the numbers aren't gonna do it for him.

对了，刚才我们聊着聊着，我特地去查了一下这事。

Also, the other day, I've just I had to go and check on this while we're talking.

我之所以不完全同意您的看法，原因在这儿。

Here's the reason I don't think, sir, I agree with you fully.

我觉得萨姆·阿尔特曼根本扛不住这摊事——客户一抱怨价格太高，他在论坛上直接说：‘AI成本现在真是个大问题。’

I don't think Sam Altman's got the head for this because when his customers started complaining about the cost, he said in a panel, yeah, AI costs are a huge issue now.

你可别这么说话，萨姆。

You don't say that, Sammy.

真不该这么说。

You don't.

投资者可不想听这种话。

That's not that's not what investors wanna hear.

你应该编点别的，比如说我们在优化成本，但大家对AI能做什么都特别兴奋。

They you said you'd make some crap up about how, like, we're doing cost adjustments, but people are really excited to see what they can do with AI.

你可别来一句‘是啊’。

You don't go, yeah.

这是个大问题。

That's a huge problem.

他路演的时候到底该怎么说？

Like like, what what's he gonna do on the roadshow?

人家肯定会说，是啊。

They're gonna be like, yeah.

你一直在亏钱。

You keep losing money.

对。

Yeah.

你明白吧？

You know?

你得亏钱才能亏钱啊。

You gotta lose money to lose money.

是的。

Yeah.

这确实让人非常担忧。

It's it's certainly very concerning.

好了，时间差不多了，埃德·齐特隆，非常感谢你今天来。

Well, gonna wrap this up, Ed Zitron, we always appreciate it.

你能搞到这些资料，真是了不起。

It's amazing that you got your hands on this.

对于这些公司来说，它们的规模、估值，以及它们在多大程度上已经成为整个市场和市场预期的核心，这一点至关重要。

It really is so important in these companies, the size and the valuation and the sense in which they are becoming, in a lot of ways, systemic to this market and to expectations of this market is so important.

现在我们终于看清了这里真正发生的事情。

And now we've finally gotten some transparency into what's really going on here.

真的很感谢你分享这些。

So we appreciate it.

埃德·齐特隆是《Where's Your Ed At》通讯的作者，也是《Better Offline》播客的主持人。

Ed Zitron is the author of the Where's Your Ed At Newsletter, also the host of the Better Offline Podcast.

埃德，感谢你抽出时间。

Ed, appreciate your time.

谢谢邀请

Thanks for having

我。

me.

广告后，SpaceX的股价还在继续上涨。

After the break, SpaceX stock keeps going up.

想了解更多市场洞察，欢迎订阅我的每周通讯《Simply Put》，网址是 simplyput.profgmedia.com。

And for even more markets insights, you can subscribe to my weekly newsletter, Simply Put, at simplyput.profgmedia.com.

本节目由Odoo赞助。

Support for the show comes from Odoo.

经营企业已经够难了。

Running a business is hard enough.

何必再用十几个互不相通的软件，让自己更麻烦呢？

So why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other?

一个管销售，一个管库存，再单独用一个做财务。

One for sales, another for inventory, a separate one for accounting.

不知不觉，你就被一堆软件淹没了，生意却没见长。

Before you know it, you are drowning in software instead of growing your business.

这时候，Odoo就派上用场了。

This is where Odoo comes in.

Odoo是你这辈子唯一需要的商业软件。

Odoo is the only business software you'll ever need.

它是一个全功能、高度整合的平台，什么都能管。

It's an all in one fully integrated platform that handles everything.

客户管理、财务、库存、电商、人力资源，还有更多功能。

CRM, accounting, inventory, e commerce, HR, and more.

再也不用被一堆应用压得喘不过气。

No more app overload.

再也不用来回切换登录账号。

No more juggling logins.

只有一个流畅统一的系统，让工作变得轻松多了。

Just one seamless system that makes work easier.

最棒的是什么？

And the best part?

Odoo 以不到几分之一的价格，取代了多个昂贵的系统。

Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost.

无论你是刚起步，还是正在快速扩张，Odoo 都能陪你一起成长。

It's built to grow with your business, whether you are just starting out or already scaling up.

而且它操作简单、可定制，专为简化所有流程而设计。

Plus, it is easy to use, customizable, and designed to streamline every process.

这样你就能专心做好真正重要的事——经营你的业务。

So you can focus on what really matters, running your business.

成千上万的企业已经换了系统，你为什么还不试试？

Thousands of businesses have made the switch, so why not you?

去 odoo.com 免费试用 Odoo。

Try ODDO for free at oddo.com.

就是 odoo.com。

That's odoo.com.

本节目由SoFi赞助支持。

Support for the show comes from SoFi.

作为家长，如果你正在帮孩子应对大学开销，一定深有体会——费用涨得有多快。

If you're a parent helping your child navigate college, you know just how fast the cost can pile up.

学费、住宿费、教材费，再加上日常开销，供孩子上大学是一笔不小的经济负担。

Between tuition, housing textbooks, and everyday living expenses, funding higher education is a major financial commitment.

这时候，今天的赞助商SoFi就派上用场了。

That's where today's sponsor, SoFi, comes in.

SoFi提供私人学生贷款，可覆盖学校认证的全部费用，不仅包括本科和研究生的学费，还能帮您支付住宿、教材、餐饮以及其他与学业相关的开销。

SoFi offers private student loans that can cover up to a 100% of school certified costs, not just undergrad and graduate tuition, but SoFi can also help cover housing, books, food, and other education related expenses.

SoFi的私人学生贷款，主打灵活便捷。

SoFi's private student loans are all about flexibility.

提供有竞争力的固定或浮动利率，多种还款期限可选，月供也能根据您的预算灵活调整。

They offer competitive fixed or variable rates, multiple term options, and monthly payments so you can build around your budget.

申请全程在线完成，几分钟内就能查看您的利率。

The application process is completely online, and you can check your rate in minutes.

对于家庭一起研究选项的情况，添加一位符合条件的共同借款人，可能有助于获得更低的利率。

And for families exploring their options together, adding a qualified cosigner may help improve chances of securing a lower interest rate.

而且完全没有任何费用。

And there are zero fees required.

既没有申请费，也没有逾期费。

That means no origination fees or late fees.

没有任何隐藏成本。

No surprises.

你看到的，就是你最终要还的。

What you see is what you pay back.

前往 sofi.com/profgstudent 查看你的选项，以更聪明的方式资助你的教育。

Head to sofi.com/profgstudent to check your options and get your education funded the smarter way.

就是 sofi.com/profgstudent。

That's sofi.com/profgstudent.

由 SoFi 银行，NA 会员 FDIC 发放。

Originated by SoFi Bank, NA member FDIC.

条款及条件适用。

Terms and conditions apply.

请理性借贷。

Please borrow responsibly.

本节目由格拉诺拉赞助。

Support for the show comes from granola.

如果会议真的有成效，我们都会愿意多花点时间，尤其是比起一堆毫无成果的短会。

We'd all take a slightly longer meeting if it was actually productive, especially over a bunch of short ones that accomplished nothing.

但问题是，我们的大脑能记住的信息量是有限的，会议一长，细节就容易忘。

But the trade off is this, our brains can only hold on to so much information, and it's easy to forget the details when the meetings keep going.

所以当那些长时间的会议到来，你需要清晰又实用的会议记录时，格拉诺拉就会帮上大忙。

So when those longer meetings roll around and you're in need of clear, actually useful notes, you'll be glad to have Granolah.

格拉诺拉

Granolah

是

is

一个为真实会议场景打造的AI笔记工具。

an AI powered notepad built for the way real people actually meet.

你只需像往常一样在后台做笔记，Granolah 会安全地实时转录会议内容。

You can take notes like you normally would in the background while Granolah securely transcribes the meeting.

会议结束后，它会把所有内容整理成清晰、有条理、真正有用的笔记。

Then after you wrap up, it turns everything into clean, structured, actually useful notes.

Granolah 还能通过设备的音频系统工作，无缝接入你正在使用的视频会议工具。

Granola also works through your device's audio, which means it integrates seamlessly into the video conferencing tools you already use.

你的会议流程还是老样子，只是变得更高效了。

It's your standard meeting setup but enhanced.

你可以专心听讲和参与讨论，不用再费力记下每一句话或实时总结。

You get to actually listen and contribute instead of trying to capture every word or summarize in real time.

会后你清楚知道达成了什么共识、谁负责什么、下一步该做什么。

You can walk away knowing exactly what was decided, who's involved, and what comes next.

如果会议占用了你太多时间，Granolah 简直是必然之选。

If meetings are eating up your day, granola is a no brainer.

你可以免费试用三个月。

You can try it totally free for three months.

直接访问 granola.ai/markets 就行。

Just head to granola.ai/markets.

去 granola.ai/markets，把时间赢回来。

That's granola.ai/markets to get your time back.

前往 granola.ai/markets，免费用三个月。

Get three months free at granola.ai/markets.

我们继续回到 Prof G Markets 的话题。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

SpaceX 在上市第三天，市值就跃居全球第五，与亚马逊并列。

In its third day of trading, SpaceX became the fifth most valuable company in the world tied with Amazon.

当天早些时候，股价飙升超过15%，达到这一里程碑，还短暂超过了微软。

The stock popped more than 15% early in the day to reach that milestone and briefly eclipsed Microsoft two.

这一涨势源于 SpaceX 宣布以600亿美元收购AI编程初创公司 Cursor。

That rally followed an announcement from SpaceX that it is acquiring AI coding startup Cursor for $60,000,000,000.

不过当天大部分涨幅都回吐了，最终只收涨5%。

The stock gave up most of those gains through the day, closing up just 5%.

尽管如此，自周五上市以来，股价已经上涨了48%。

Still, shares have rallied 48 from their IPO price on Friday.

显然，市场对这家公司的热情依然高涨。

So, clearly, there is still a lot of excitement around this company.

所以我们想请一位真正做过详细测算、尝试给这家公司估值的人来聊聊。

So we wanted to talk to someone who has actually run the numbers and attempted to value this stock.

今天我们邀请到晨星公司的股票分析师尼古拉斯·欧文斯，和我们讨论SpaceX。

So joining us to discuss SpaceX, we are speaking with Nicolas Owens, equity analyst for Morningstar.

尼古拉斯，感谢你参与我们的对话。

Nicolas, thank you for joining us.

你是少数真正对这家公司做过现金流折现分析的人。

You are someone who has actually done a discounted cash flow analysis of this company.

你给出了这家公司的估值。

You valued the company.

你写过一篇分析，得出的估值是7800亿美元，而目前市场的估值是2.6万亿美元。

You wrote about it, and your number that you reached was $780,000,000,000, which is I mean, we compare it to the current valuation, $2,600,000,000,000.

这个数字明显低了不少。

It is notably a lot lower.

能说说你是怎么算出这个数字的吗？

Take us through how you got to that number.

你刚才提到的这个数字，其实是三种不同情景的加权平均值。

The headline number that you just mentioned is the weighted average of three scenarios.

我们对SpaceX的估值分成了三块：火箭业务、星链，还有人工智能部分——这部分本身又包含好几个动态因素。

And the the way we valued SpaceX was in three parts, essentially, the rocket piece, Starlink, and the AI piece, which is itself kind of a a set of a set of moving parts.

我觉得火箭和星链这两块相对更容易评估。

I would argue that the the rocket and Starlink is is more straightforward.

它们已经是比较成熟的业务了。

It's a more mature part of the business.

在大多数情景下，这两块加起来的企业价值大约是6110亿美元，相当于每股40美元左右。

And in most of our scenarios, they're worth, say, $611,000,000,000 in terms of enterprise value, some $40 a share, let's say.

至于人工智能部分，我们认为很多预期都建立在尚未验证的结果上，我这里说的不是太空数据中心背后的科技或工程问题——虽然这方面也存在争议。

The AI, we think there's a lot of riding on some unproven outcomes, and I'm not really talking about the science or engineering behind data centers in space, though there's some debate about that.

真正关键的是，在太空中设立数据中心能带来哪些财务优势。

It's really the financial benefit of having a data center in space.

相比地面上的数据中心，它在运营成本上真有优势吗？

Is there some kind of operating cost advantage versus a terrestrial data center?

我们主要把这项业务当作基础设施来评估，也就是像他们现在对Anthropic和谷歌那样，出租计算能力。

We modeled this business primarily as an infrastructure play, so renting out computing capacity the way they've started to do with Anthropic and Google.

如果Grok真的火了，那我们其实不太在意他们是把算力租出去，还是自己拿去跑大量Grok任务，再通过其他方式变现。

You know, if Grok takes off, then we we we would say that we're sort of indifferent between them renting out the capacity and using it for for lots of Grok jobs and then monetizing that some other way.

我们默认市场上有相应的公允价格，这就是我们建模的依据。

We would assume there's some market rate for that, and that's how we modeled it.

所以，我们的估值和市场价格之间的差异，其实取决于你对两个关键前提的信心：一是星舰火箭能否实现几小时或几天内重复使用，二是太空数据中心的运营成本能否真正比地面的有明显优势。

And so the the difference between our valuation and the market price really has to do with how probable do you believe it is going to be that both the Starship rocket is highly reusable, like in hours or days, and that data centers in space are will be a call it a compelling bargain in terms of their operating costs versus terrestrial.

这两点也许都会成真，但我们认为它们同时成立的概率只有7%左右，而正是这个低概率，导致我们的估值远低于当前市场价。

Both of those might be true, but we think there's only about a 7% probability that they will both be true at the same time, and that results in a much higher valuation that's closer to the market price here.