Snap 的“关键时刻”在华尔街遭遇滑铁卢

本节目由菲拉格慕赞助。

Support for the show comes from Ferragamo.

今年父亲节，菲拉格慕推出这一系列，致敬我从您身上学到的一切——父亲的影响体现在细节里，体现在穿衣的品味、对材质的讲究，以及每一个深思熟虑的选择。

This Father's Day, Ferragamo presents there the things I have learned from you collection because a father's influence is reflected in the details, in the way they dress, in the appreciation of materials, and in making considered choices.

这些点点滴滴日积月累，最终成为我们共同的身份印记。

These elements build over time and become part of a shared identity.

菲拉格慕希望展现父亲与所爱之人日常相处中自然流露的风格、自信与从容。

And Ferragamo wants to highlight the style, assertiveness, and poise that are naturally showcased with the everyday moments between a father and the ones they love.

更多父亲节精选礼品，请访问 ferragamo.com 或前往门店了解。

Discover Ferragamo's Father's Day gifting selection at ferragamo.com or in store.

本节目由Odoo赞助。

Support for the show comes from Odoo.

经营企业需要你倾尽所有，但市面上很多号称能帮你省事的工具，其实根本没法顺畅协作。

Running a business takes everything you've got, and a lot of the tools out there that are supposed to make your life easier just aren't great at talking to each other.

结果你只能在十几个不同的应用和服务之间来回切换，只为维持日常运转。

And that means you end up having to toggle between a dozen different apps and services just to keep the lights on.

别说了。

Enough of that.

现在有了Odoo，这是一个全集成的一体化平台，真的能帮你把所有事情搞定。

Now there is Odoo, the all in one fully integrated platform that might actually help you get it all done.

成千上万的企业都已经转用了，你为什么还不试试？

Thousands of businesses have made the switch, so why not you?

去odoo.com免费试用Odoo。

Try Odoo for free at odoo.com.

就是odoo.com。

That's odoo.com.

本节目由BCX赞助，这是私营科技公司的公开股票代码。

Support for the show comes from BCX, the public ticker for private tech.

美国股市开启了人类历史上规模最大的财富创造浪潮，从底特律的工人到奥马哈的农民，人人都受益。

The US stock market started history's greatest wave of wealth creation from factory workers in Detroit to farmers in Omaha.

任何人都能拥有美国伟大企业的股份。

Anyone can own a piece of the great American companies.

但如今，我们最具创新力的公司都迟迟不上市，导致普通美国人一直无缘参与——直到现在。

But today, our most innovative companies are staying private longer, which means everyday Americans are missing out until now.

推出VCX，一个让普通人也能投资科技初创公司的公开股票代码，现在各大券商都能交易了。

Introducing VCX, a public ticker for private tech, now available wherever you buy stocks.

了解更多，请访问 getvcx.com。

Visit getvcx.com for more info.

网址是 getvcx.com。

That's getvcx.com.

投资前请仔细阅读相关材料，包括基金目标、风险、费用和收费情况。

Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses.

更多详情请参阅 getvcx.com 上的基金招募说明书。

This and other information can be found in the fund's prospectus at getvcx.com.

本内容为付费广告。

This is a paid sponsorship.

一万七千。

17,000.

我感觉自己快撑不住了。

I feel like I'm try.

货币市场已经达标了。

Money market's met.

如果钱是邪恶的，那栋楼就是地狱。

If money is evil, then that building is hell.

总统根本没怎么看。

The president never watched it so so.

欢迎来到Prof G市场。

Welcome to Prof G Markets.

我是埃德·埃尔森。

I'm Ed Elson.

今天是6月18号。

It is June 18.

咱们来看看昨天的市场关键数据。

Let's check-in on yesterday's market vitals.

美联储记者会后，主要股指大幅下挫。

The major indices tumbled following the Federal Reserve's press conference.

稍后我们会详细分析。

More on that in a moment.

国债收益率和美元都出现了飙升。

Treasury yields spiked as did the dollar.

根据Cauchy的数据，今年年底前加息的概率已升至62%。

And the odds of a rate hike before the year end are now at 62% on Cauchy.

与此同时，SpaceX上市以来首次下跌，全天收跌5%。

Meanwhile, SpaceX declined for the first time since it went public, ending the day down 5%.

明白了。

Okay.

到底发生了什么？

What's happening?

Snap刚刚发布了新款增强现实眼镜。

Snap just unveiled its new augmented reality glasses.

尽管之前备受期待，宣传声势也很大，但实际表现却不太理想。

And despite a lot of anticipation and a lot of hype, it was a bit of a flop.

这款名为 Snap Specs 的眼镜内置了镜框显示屏，能把应用程序叠加到现实世界中。

The glasses called Snap Specs feature an in frame display, which overlays apps onto the real world.

售价高达2195美元，比Meta的Ray-Ban智能眼镜贵得多，后者起步价才800美元。

They're priced at $2,195, making them significantly more expensive than Meta's Ray Ban display glasses, which start at $800.

首席执行官埃文·斯皮格尔称 Snap Specs 是一次跨越式突破，是未来的计算机，但市场似乎并不买账。

CEO Evan Spiegel called Snap Specs a leapfrog advancement and the computer of the future, but the market doesn't seem to agree.

今天股价收盘下跌近8%，过去一年累计跌幅已达40%。

The stock closed down almost 8% today, and it's now off 40% over the past year.

接下来我们请来专家，深入聊聊 Snap Specs 的情况，以及它为何在华尔街遭遇冷遇。

So here to tell us more about the Snap specs and potentially why it was such flop to Wall Street.

今天我们邀请到彭博社的主编兼首席记者马克·古尔曼。

We're speaking with Mark Gurman, managing editor and chief correspondent for Bloomberg News.

马克，感谢您参与我们的节目。

Mark, thank you for joining us.

这些眼镜在我社交媒体上到处都是，但都不是好评。

These glasses are all over my social media feed and not in a good way.

人人都在嘲笑它们。

Everyone is making fun of them.

我得说，我确实仔细看过这些东西。

And I gotta say, I've looked at these things.

我看过它们戴在伊万·斯皮格尔脸上的样子，尤其是耳朵那块。

I've seen the way that they sit on Evan Spiegel's face, particularly his ears.

我觉得这东西太重太笨拙，戴上去也不怎么好看。

And I just think this thing is way too heavy and cumbersome, and they don't seem to look very good.

我不禁想，这会不会就是问题所在。

And I wonder if that's the problem here.

你怎么看这些Snap眼镜，还有大家对它们的反应？

What do you make of these Snap specs and also the reaction to them?

以现在的技术来说，能实现增强现实、一体式可穿戴的设备，我觉得设计其实还不错。

I think for the available technology today, something that's has augmented reality, something that's an all in one wearable headset, I think the design actually is quite good.

我觉得就这项技术而言，这个价格其实还算合理。

And I think the price is actually quite reasonable for the tech.

但我不觉得普通消费者会认为这价格合适。

Now I don't think it's reasonable for a mass consumer.

这种东西标价2200美元，根本不可能大卖。

I don't think anything of this is gonna become a hit at $2,200 US.

不过考虑到当前技术的水平，他们已经做得不错了。

But I do think for what the state of this technology is, they are in a fairly good place.

我觉得他们股价下跌8%，更多是因为大家意识到开发和生产这些设备成本太高，而且Snap在这款几乎不可能爆红的产品上投了太多钱。

I think the 8% decline in their stock is more a reaction to how expensive these are to develop and build and how much money Snap is putting into this product that is unlikely to become a smash hit.

所以我觉得大家的担忧其实就源于这一点。

So I think that's what the concern is stemming from.

但从技术本身来看，这可是非常前沿的技术。

But in terms of the technology, it's intense technology.

属于顶尖水平的技术。

It's advanced technology.

我觉得这个尝试正在向我们展示，未来主流的计算形态会是什么样子，因为我非常看好增强现实这个领域。

And I think it's an exercise that's showing us what eventually is going to be a mainstream computing form factor because I do heavily believe in the augmented reality category.

我只是不确定Snap能不能把这项技术推向下一个阶段。

I'm just not sure Snap is going to be the one to take it to that next level.

我们清楚他们在这上面花了多少钱吗？

What do we know about how much they're spending on this stuff?

我们知道Meta一直在往里砸几百亿美元。

Because we know that Meta's been plowing, you know, tens of billions into this thing.

苹果也是同样在投入，但它们有资本和现金流支撑，几乎是轻而易举。

Apple, the same doing the same thing, but it's almost like they have the capital and the cash flows to do it.

Snap是一家规模小得多的公司，却也在瞄准增强现实这个大市场。

Snap is a significantly smaller company, and yet they're also going for the big fish in augmented reality.

那么，我们到底知道多少关于他们的投入？这种事对Snap这样的公司来说，真的可能吗？

So what do we know in terms of the spending and and and whether this is even possible for a company like Snap?

他们已经在上面投了几十亿美元，我觉得Snap完全有可能做到。

They've spent billions on this, and I do think it is certainly possible for a company like Snap.

如果市场对这些东西的需求真的爆发了，我觉得他们总会找到办法把产品送到消费者手上。

If there's a scenario in which there is gigantic demand for these things, I think they are gonna find a way to be able to get these into the hands of consumers.

但一开始，这肯定是极客中的极客才会玩的东西。

But I think early on, this is going to be the early adopter of early adopters.

第一批用户大概就是开发者。

This is going to be developers.

这可能更偏向于企业级应用。

This is maybe gonna be an enterprise play.

你想想这个领域之前推出的那些产品，没有哪一个真正在消费者市场掀起过热潮。

If you think about the other products that have launched in this space, none of them have been really taken have really taken the world by storm with consumers.

很多其实都是面向企业的解决方案。

A lot of these are enterprise products.

而且很多公司根本不再直接卖产品了。

And a lot of these companies, they don't even sell the product anymore.

微软就试过用HoloLens进军这个领域。

Microsoft tried their hands on this with the HoloLens.

Meta 也试过这一块。

Meta has tried their hands on this as well.

Quest 已经不是重点了。

The Quest is no longer the priority.

现在全部聚焦在智能眼镜上。

It's all about the smart glasses.

Magic Leap 也不再卖他们的产品了。

Magic Leap no longer sells their product anymore.

他们现在转做 AR 镜头供应商，总部在美国。

They've become a AR lens supplier now based in in The US.

Apple Vision Pro 显然没达到苹果当初的预期。

The Apple Vision Pro, obviously, has not taken off in the way that Apple had anticipated.

所以目前这个领域还谈不上兴旺。

So this is not a thriving category at this point.

我觉得我们还处在非常早期的阶段。

I think we're still in a very early stage here.

要让这些东西真正用起来，得满足哪些条件？

What is it gonna take for this stuff to work?

毕竟我们听这话题听得够久了，可问题一大堆——续航短、外观笨重、还容易晕眩。

Because, you know, we've been hearing about it for such a long time, and it seems like there's issues with the how long it lasts in terms of battery, like, the look of them, motion sickness.

方方面面都是问题。

I mean, so many things.

你觉得，什么样的AR眼镜才可能真正流行起来？

Like, what do you think it it would look like to see an AR headset that actually is popular?

得好多条件同时到位才行。

A lot of things are going to have to converge.

首先得有全天候的续航能力，可现在还做不到。

You're going to have to see a combination of all day battery life, which we don't have yet.

价格也得降到一千到一千五百美元之间，目前离这个水平还远着呢。

You're going to have to see a price point in the thousand dollar to $1,500 range, which we're not at yet.

还得做成一体式设计，薄得轻得跟普通眼镜差不多，可离那一天还差好多年。

You're going to have to see that be in an all in one design that's nearly as thin and light as everyday glasses, and we're so many years away from that.

而且，这些设备还必须拥有极高的视觉清晰度和画质，让人根本分不清现实世界和屏幕上显示的内容有什么区别——因为这项技术必须看起来前沿、令人印象深刻，而且文字清晰易读。

And you're gonna have to see that all with visual fidelity and quality where you can't really tell the difference between the real world and what you're seeing in the displays because that that technology has to look innovative, has to look impressive, has to look highly legible.

所以我认为，要达到这些标准中的任何一个，甚至让它们全部同时汇聚到一个产品里，我们还得等上好几年。

And so I think we're several years away from hitting any of those metrics, let alone all of them converging simultaneously into a singular product.

但目前来看，Snap 发布的这款产品，已经是离那个理想状态最近的一次了。

But what we're seeing from Snap is the closest incarnation to that yet.

我想念一段我看到的推文给你听。

I just wanna read you a tweet that I saw.

这是来自一个叫 'uncle doomer' 的用户。

This is from a user uncle doomer.

这个人说：'任何亲手打造过产品的人家都知道，在开发过程中总有个节点，当投入的成本已经太高，整个公司都会小心翼翼地绕着那位固执的高管走，因为他完全陷在自己的想法里，根本看不到自己的产品有多糟糕。'

This this individual said, quote, anyone who has ever built anything can tell you that there's a point in the development cycle where the sunk costs become too great and the entire org chart starts walking on eggshells around an exec who is too tunneled in to realize that his product sucks.

这段话是在评论 Snap 的这款眼镜。

That was in relation to these Snap specs.

我觉得，这确实点出了华尔街的担忧——那就是，伊万·斯皮格是这家公司的创始人兼首席执行官。

And it I think it does kinda capture probably what the concerns are on Wall Street, which that Evan Spiegel is the founder CEO.

他和联合创始人至少掌握了99%的投票权。

He has he and his cofounder at least have 99% of the voting power.

公司的一切决策都由他说了算。

He decides what to do as a company.

他正全速推进这个项目。

He is going full steam ahead with this thing.

现在外界对这家公司有些担忧，毕竟股价一直低迷，大家觉得他可能太过执着，已经脱离现实，或者被这个愿景困住了。

And I think there are now concerns for the company, which, you know, the stock has been really struggling that he's out over his skis or maybe in over his head or too committed to this vision.

我想听听你对埃文·斯皮格尔和这家公司未来方向的看法。

I'd just be curious to get your reactions to that view of Evan Spiegel and the direction of this company.

我觉得投资者在问：既然利润主要来自高毛利的应用、软件和人工智能，为什么还要折腾硬件呢？

I think investors are asking why are we playing with hardware when, you know, the money is to be made on high margin products, which is applications and software and AI.

所以关键问题是，为什么要投入硬件，还烧这么多钱？

And so, yeah, the big question is why are you even playing in hardware and burning all this money?

Snap其实也清楚这个问题。

And Snap recognizes this.

所以他们专门成立了一家叫Specs Inc的子公司来运作这一切。

This is why they've created a subsidiary called Specs Inc, which they're running this all through.

我觉得这样能让他们在财报里谈数字时更灵活一些，你知道的，那些财务数据之类的。

I think it's gonna help, you know, the numbers they're able to talk about in their, you know, earnings reports and what have you.

我觉得这才是他们这么做的真正原因。

I think that's the driving force behind this.

但他们已经在这上面投入了整整十二年了。

But, you know, they've been investing so much in this for twelve years.

说到增强现实，Snapchat里的滤镜和各种视觉叠加功能，他们绝对是行业先驱之一。

They are really one of the pioneers in the AR space if you think about the lenses and different overlays and such you can do in Snapchat.

我觉得这个产品其实有很多亮点。

So I think there's a lot to like from this product.

只是消费者可能并不愿意为它买单。

It's just not something that people are gonna buy.

假设这件事最终没成功。

Say this just doesn't work out.

Snap眼镜根本卖不动，这明显是个失败的产品。

Snap specs, there are no sales, and it's it really is a flop.

你觉得这对公司意味着什么？

What do you think that means for the company?

如果Snap眼镜搞不起来，Snap还有没有翻身的可能？

Like, is there a viable way out for Snap if Specs don't work?

真正的出路在于做平台或应用提供商，成为像当年在iPhone上那样成功的软件产品——不管未来是苹果、亚马逊、Meta，还是Snap，总得有人在这类新设备上成功。

Well, the viable way out is being the platform or the app provider and becoming a hit software product like they were on the iPhone for these next generation of of devices that someone is going to have success with, whether it's Apple, Amazon, or Meta, or even Snap.

总有人会做成功，而Snap下一步很可能就是把Snapchat变成这类设备上的杀手级应用，而不是盯着硬件本身。

Someone is gonna do this successfully, and being able to transform Snapchat to being the killer app on that platform and not on that hardware will probably be their next step.

但我觉得，就算Snap眼镜这次不成功，也还不算完。

But I think if this Specs product is not successful, I don't think this is a wrap.

他们还会继续尝试，不断改进，推出更薄、更轻的下一代产品。

I think they'll keep trying and keep building and try to get out a subsequent version that's thinner, lighter.

马克，我最后一个问题。

My final question for you, Mark.

你会买或戴这些东西吗？

Would you ever buy these things or wear these things?

很难说。

It's hard to tell.

到目前为止，我还没用过最新版。

I haven't used the latest version at this point.

我得看看实际应用场景，以及它们能不能融入我的日常生活。

I'm gonna have to see the use cases and how they would fit into my daily life.

我非常看好AR眼镜这个品类。

I am a huge believer in the AR glasses category.

这一点我必须承认。

I will say that.

好的。

Alright.

马克·古尔曼，彭博社的执行主编兼首席记者。

Mark Gurman, managing editor and chief correspondent for Bloomberg News.

马克，非常感谢你抽出时间。

Mark, we really appreciate your time.

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢您。

Thank you, sir.

广告后，我们将带来今年首次一致通过的美联储利率决定。

After the break, the first unanimous Fed rate decision of the year.

如需更多市场洞察，欢迎订阅我的每周通讯《Simply Put》，网址是 simplyput.profgmedia.com。

And for even more markets insights, you can subscribe to my weekly newsletter, Simply Put, at simplyput.profgmedia.com.

本节目由Odoo赞助。

Support for the show comes from Odoo.

经营企业已经够难了。

Running a business is hard enough.

那又何必再用十几个互不相通的软件，让自己更麻烦呢？

So why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other?

一个用来管销售，另一个管库存，再单独来一个管财务。

One for sales, another for inventory, a separate one for accounting.

不知不觉，你就被一堆软件压得喘不过气，生意却没怎么发展。

Before you know it, you are drowning in software instead of growing your business.

这时候，Odoo就派上用场了。

This is where Odoo comes in.

Odoo是你这辈子唯一需要的商业软件。

Odoo is the only business software you'll ever need.

它是一个全功能、高度整合的平台，什么都能搞定。

It's an all in one fully integrated platform that handles everything.

客户关系管理、财务、库存、电商、人力资源，还有更多功能。

CRM, accounting, inventory, ecommerce, HR, and more.

再也不用被一堆应用搞得头大。

No more app overload.

再也不用来回切换登录账号。

No more juggling logins.

只有一个流畅统一的系统，让工作变得更轻松。

Just one seamless system that makes work easier.

最棒的是什么？

And the best part?

Odoo 用不到几分之一的价钱，就取代了多个昂贵的软件平台。

Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost.

它能随着你的业务一起成长，不管你刚起步，还是已经在扩张。

It's built to grow with your business, whether you are just starting out or already scaling up.

而且操作简单，支持自定义，专为优化每个流程而设计。

Plus, it is easy to use, customizable, and designed to streamline every process.

这样你就能专心做好真正重要的事——经营你的企业。

So you can focus on what really matters, running your business.

成千上万的企业已经换了系统，你为什么还不试试？

Thousands of businesses have made the switch, so why not you?

去 oddo.com 免费试用 Odoo。

Try ODDO for free at oddo.com.

这就是 odoo.com。

That's odoo.com.

本节目由VCX赞助播出，VCX是私营科技公司的公开股票。

Support for the show comes from VCX, the public ticker for private tech.

几代以来，美国企业凭借其创新精神和坚定决心推动了世界的发展。

For generations, American companies have moved the world forward through their ingenuity and determination.

而几代普通美国人，也通过或许是人类最伟大的发明之一——美国股市，得以参与这一进程。

And for generations, everyday Americans could be a part of that journey through perhaps the greatest innovation of all, The US stock market.

无论你是底特律的工人，还是奥马哈的农民，人人都能拥有美国伟大企业的股份。

It didn't matter whether you were a factory worker in Detroit or a farmer in Omaha, anyone can own a piece of the great American companies.

但如今，这种情况已经改变了。

But now that's changed.

如今，最具创新力的公司选择长期保持私有，而不是上市。

Today, our most innovative companies are staying private rather than going public.

结果就是，普通美国人被挡在投资门外，越来越落后，而只有少数人独享所有收益——直到现在。

The result is that everyday Americans are excluded from investing and getting left further behind while a select few reap all the benefits until now.

推出VCX，这是专为私营科技公司设立的公开交易股票，现在你在哪里买股票，就能在哪里买到VCX。

Introducing VCX, the public ticker for private tech, now available wherever you buy stocks.

VCX由Fundrise提供，让每个人都有机会投资下一代创新企业，包括引领人工智能、太空探索、国防科技等领域的前沿公司。

VCX by Fundrise gives everyone the opportunity to invest in the next generation of innovation, including the companies leading the AI revolution, space exploration, defense tech, and more.

了解更多，请访问getvcx.com。

Visit getvcx.com for more info.

网址是getvcx.com。

That's getvcx.com.

投资前请仔细阅读相关材料，包括投资目标、风险、费用和开支。

Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses.

更多详情请参阅getvcx.com上的基金招募说明书。

This and other information can be found in the fund's prospectus at getvcx.com.

本内容为付费赞助。

This is a paid sponsorship.

本节目由毕马威提供支持。

Support for the show comes from KPMG.

在任何组织中，变革都不可避免，但不必非要苦苦挣扎着应对。

In any organization, disruption is inevitable, but struggling through it doesn't have to be.

KPMG适应力指数为你提供了一份蓝图，帮助你打造应对未来挑战的能力。

The KPMG adaptability index is your blueprint for building capabilities to handle what comes next.

它基于真实数据，分析你的文化、战略和合作关系如何协同作用，推动业务成长。

It uses real data to look at how your culture, strategy, and partnerships all work together to help your business thrive.

别再被动反应，要主动适应。

Stop reacting and start adapting.

立即访问 kpmg.com/us/adaptability，了解适应力指数和脉搏调查的详情。

Visit kpmg.com/us/adaptability to explore the Adaptability Index and Pulse surveys today.

我们继续回到《Prof G 市场》。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

在主席凯文·沃尔什的首次决策中，美联储维持利率不变。

In its first decision under chair Kevin Walsh, the Federal Reserve held rates steady.

这是连续第四次利率保持不变，但也是今年首次投票结果完全一致。

It was the fourth meeting in a row that rates went unchanged, but it was the first time this year that the vote was unanimous.

不过，委员会内部对未来的路径仍有分歧。

Still, the committee is divided on the path forward.

九位官员预计今年至少会加息一次，八位认为会维持不变，一位则预期会降息。

Nine officials expect at least one hike this year, while eight expects to hold and one expects to cut.

与此同时，沃尔什拒绝公布自己的利率预测，这对于一位现任主席来说非同寻常。

Meanwhile, Walsh declines to submit his own rate forecast, an unusual move for a sitting chair.

提醒一下，通胀依然高企，五月达到4.2%，是三年来的最高水平。

As a reminder, inflation remains elevated reaching 4.2% in May, the highest reading in three years.

今天我们邀请到穆迪分析公司的首席经济学家马克·赞迪，来和我们聊聊这次利率决策以及凯文·沃尔什的首次新闻发布会。

Joining us to discuss this interest rate decision and Kevin Walsh's first press conference, we're speaking with Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.

马克，感谢你做客我们的节目。

Mark, thank you for joining us on the show.

美联储决定维持利率不变，这一点没人感到意外。

The Fed has decided to hold rates here, which no one was surprised by.

至少对我来说，最引人注目的是，这次投票竟然全票通过。

I think the one thing that really stands out to me at least is that the vote was unanimous this time.

没人投票支持降息，这说明美联储及其官员们现在对通胀非常重视，或者至少比以前更重视了。

No one voted to cut, which to me says that the Fed and all of its officials are really taking inflation seriously at this point or at least maybe more seriously than they were before.

你对这次新闻发布会看到的情况怎么看？

What do you make of what we saw in this press conference?

是的。

Yeah.

没错，埃德。

That's right, Ed.

我觉得他们对通胀的态度非常认真。

I I think they're taking the inflation very serious.

正如你提到的，现在通胀大约在4%，是美联储2%目标的两倍。

You know, as you point out, we're 4% ish, and that's double the Fed's 2% target.

主席沃尔什在会上多次强调，价格稳定的目标就是2%。

And Chair Wash did make a point several times about price stability in the 2% target.

还有点阵图，非常明确地显示，许多美联储成员预计今年至少会加息一次，有些人甚至认为可能会加息两次。

And then you got the dot plots, which are very clear that many of the Fed members want at least one rate hike this year or thinking there will be at least one rate hike this year and perhaps two.

这比我对沃尔什主席首次会议的预期要强硬得多。

And that was much more hawkish than I had anticipated, certainly for this first meeting for chair Walsh.

所以，说实话，这次会议的激进态度确实让我有点意外。

So, yeah, I was a bit taken aback by how aggressive they were on this at this first meeting.

考虑到总统一直强硬要求降息，这一点尤其引人注目。

Which is also striking given what the rhetoric we've been hearing from the president who has been aggressively calling for rates to be cut.

他过去对鲍威尔主席抱怨最多的，就是这个问题。

This is what he was complaining about with chair Powell for the longest time.

之前大家一直在讨论，凯文·沃尔什到底会顺从这些隐性要求，还是会坚持强硬立场。

There was a lot of debate over whether Kevin Walsh would kind of obey those demands, those sort of implicit demands, or if he would decide to be hawkish.

他这次选择了强硬路线，某种程度上是在违背总统的意愿。

He has decided to be hawkish here, in a lot of ways, defying the president.

你觉得这会不会成为未来双方关系的一个摩擦点？

Do you think that this could be, I don't know, maybe a point of tension moving forward?

他没有按总统希望的那样做，这一点你感到意外吗？

Were you surprised by the fact that he didn't do what the president might have wanted him to do?

你知道吗？

Well, you know what?

他根本做不到。

He couldn't do it.

就算他想这么做，也不行。

And he you know, even if he wanted to.

对吧？

Right?

他是委员会里的一票，但委员会整体的看法完全不一样。

I mean, he's a vote on a committee with a lot of votes, and, clearly, the committee met a very different perspective on things.

所以，就算他想降息，也根本不可能实现。

So even if he wanted to cut interest rates, that that wasn't gonna happen.

我觉得数据已经很清楚了。

And, you know, I think the data are pretty clear.

通货膨胀率实在太高了，这根本没法否认。

I mean, it's irrefutable that, you know, the inflation is just too high.

而且，随着伊朗战争逐渐平息，油价有望回落并保持低位，这可能会让通胀重新抬头，这其中确实有一些说法。

And, yeah, there's some arguments as to why that might come back in as the Iran war winds down and hopefully oil prices come in and stay down and that translates through.

但也有不少理由让人担心，通胀可能会持续更久。

But there's a lot of reasons to be concerned that it will be more persistent as well.

上次我们聊过人工智能，以及它对通胀产生的影响，这种影响会更持久。

We talked last time about artificial intelligence and the impact that's having on inflation, which will be more durable.

所以，当前实际情况实在太明显了，根本没法忽视。

So I think the reality of what's going on is just too difficult to ignore.

你就是没法装作没看见。

You just can't.

因此，你必须采取强硬立场。

Therefore, you have to be hawkish.

还有一点值得考虑，我不知道总统会不会这么想，但很明显，如果你在一个处处提示该加息的环境里，却开始降息，你或许能把联邦基金利率目标压下来。

The other thing to consider, I don't know if the president would think this way, but, you know, I think it's it's clearly the case that if you start trying to cut interest rates in a world where everything screams you should be raising interest rates, you might get the federal funds rate target down.

毕竟，作为美联储，你理论上当然能把它降下来。

You know, by definition, you can get that down because you're the Fed.

但长期利率会朝相反的方向走。

But long term interest rates will go the opposite direction.

它们会上升，事实上今天就已经升了。

They'll they'll rise, and in fact, they did rise today.

所以我觉得沃尔什主席这里根本没有别的选择。

So I don't think he chair Walsh had any options here.

对吧？

Right?

他只能跟着这么做，在表达上必须采取非常强硬的立场。

He he had to go along with this and be very hawkish in in in the way he's presenting things.

是的。

Yeah.

你看看加州市场对美联储加息的预期概率就知道了。

Just look at the odds on Calci of a Fed rate hike.

年初的时候，这个概率大概只有12%左右。

It started around 12% towards the beginning of the year.

现在概率已经升到62%了。

Now we're up to 62%.

所以交易员们觉得，加息的可能性很大。

So traders believe that the likelihood is that we will see a a rate hike.

我同意这个看法。

I think I would agree.

我也很想听听你对这件事的看法。

I would be interested to hear your perspective on that too.

不过先说说伊朗，我们看到了这份协议备忘录，虽然还不确定它能落实到什么程度，但相比以往那些空谈，这次伊朗确实签了字，还公开表态了，显得真实得多。

But just going to Iran for a moment, we have seen this deal memorandum up for debate how real we think it will be, but seems certainly more real than previous announcements of deals that we have seen before because Iran has signed up for this, and they've publicly spoken about it.

那我们从美联储那里，有没有得到什么线索，能判断这个协议到底有几分真？

Did we did we learn anything from the Fed or at least on their views of how real this deal actually is?

因为伊朗的情况，对通胀和物价的影响可能是最大的。

Because it seems that what happens in Iran is the most consequential event as it relates to inflation and and prices.

所以，我们或许能从美联储的表态里，看出一些关于伊朗局势的端倪。

So it seems that there's something that we might be able to learn about what's happening in Iran from the Federal Reserve.

在这方面我们有没有得到什么线索，还是依然不清楚？

Did we get any insight on that front or still unclear?

说实话，我对伊朗那边的情况以及他们的想法并没有什么深入了解。

I don't know that we get any insight in into, you what's going on with Iran and how they're thinking about it.

我的意思是，确实如此。

I mean, I I yeah.

我相信他们和我们一样，也不确定这事最终会怎么发展。

I'm I'm sure they're as uncertain as we are about how this is gonna play out.

这种不确定性影响了他们的判断，觉得可能还得加息一两次，才能防止通胀在战争前景不明的情况下进一步恶化。

That's playing into their thinking that maybe we need a rate hike or two here just to keep things for inflation from becoming even worse in the context of the uncertainty around the war.

但我并没有从中学到任何关于这场战争如何发展的具体信息。

But I didn't learn anything per se about the war and how that might unfold.

我猜大家对这件事都是一头雾水。

I'm guessing there is in the dark about this as everyone else is.

这件事有太多可能的发展方向。

This thing can go in lots of different directions.

我说，埃德，我觉得我得反对一下加息这个说法。

I will say, Ed, you know, I mean, I'll push back on the rate hike.

我觉得经济其实挺疲软的。

My sense is the economy is also pretty soft.

你知道，我们确实。

You know, we yeah.

过去几个月就业数据还不错，但我怀疑这撑不了多久，尤其是今年年初以来那点靠赤字支撑的财政刺激马上就要退潮了，而汽油和食品价格还在高位。

We did get a couple, three months of good job numbers, but I suspect that's not gonna be sustained, particularly as the deficit financed fiscal stimulus that we've enjoyed since the beginning of the year fades into the background, and we're still paying higher prices for gasoline and grocery.

所以我觉得美联储面临的不只是通胀问题，增长乏力也会让他们很头疼，这会让局面更加复杂。

So I I think we they've the Fed's got a a problem not only with inflation, but they they are also gonna have a problem with growth, which is gonna complicate things even further for them.

哦，真的吗。

Oh, wow.

那你的意思是，今年很可能不会加息了？

So you would you would bet then that we probably won't see a hike this year?

我的意思是，你到底怎么看？

I mean, what where do you stand?

不会。

No.

我不这么认为。

I don't I don't think so.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得，虽然通胀明显在呼吁加息，但就业市场却传递出相反的信息——加息毫无意义，甚至可能需要降息，结果就是双方僵持，今年政策不会有任何调整。

My sense is that, you know, was clearly inflation screams for a rate hike, but the job market will be telling a strong story that rate hikes don't make any sense and maybe rate cut, and that'll go to a draw, and we don't get any change in policy this year.

这正是我的看法。

That would be my thinking.

不过，接下来还有很多变数等着发生。

So but, you know, a lot of script here to be written.

但我觉得，进入夏季后，经济又会开始走弱。

But my sense is as we move into the summer months, the economy's gonna start to weaken again.

好的。

Alright.

马克·赞迪，穆迪分析公司的首席经济学家。

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.

马克，非常感谢你抽出时间。

Mark, always appreciate your time.

谢谢。

Thank you.

随时欢迎，埃德。

Anytime, Ed.

人工智能在市场上的影响力越来越大，从人工智能公司上市，到AI代理代表用户进行交易。

AI is taking an outsized presence in the market from AI companies going public to the rise of AI agents trading on a user's behalf.

如今，投资者更需要认真思考人工智能在投资组合中应该扮演什么角色。

Now more than ever, investors need to consider what role AI should actually play in their portfolios.

今天我们邀请到一位人工智能研究员，他早在几十年前就把机器学习带到了华尔街。

So joining us to discuss that is an AI researcher who brought machine learning to Wall Street decades ago.

瓦桑特·达哈尔是纽约大学斯特恩商学院的教授，SCT资本管理公司的创始人，也是新书《与机器思考》的作者。

Vasant Dhar is a professor at the NYU Stern School of Business, founder of SCT Capital Management, and author of Thinking With Machines, his new book.

瓦桑特，感谢您做客我们的节目。

Vasant, thank you for joining me on the show.

您是一位人工智能研究者。

You are an AI researcher.

您创办了一家专注于机器学习和基于机器学习投资的对冲基金。

You founded a hedge fund that specializes in machine learning and machine learning based investments.

您在这个领域算是很早就入局了。

So you were quite early to this.

现在，人工智能已经全面接管了市场。

AI is now taking over.

我很想听听您的看法：人工智能正在如何改变投资方式？我们是否应该用它来投资？

So I'd be interested to hear from you how AI is changing investing and if we should be using it to invest.

是的。

Yeah.

你说得对。

You're right.

我刚到华尔街的时候，把机器学习带进去，那时候AI还被人看得很怀疑。

You know, when I went to Wall Street, when I brought Machine Learning to Wall Street, it was AI was sort of a you know, it was a thing that people viewed with suspicion.

你知道的。

You know?

那时候经济学家习惯用线性模型，物理学家也只信物理模型，机器学习夹在中间，显得特别尴尬。

You had economists who were used to sort of linear models and you had physicists who were used to, you know, physical kinds of models and machine learning sort of fell in this awkward space.

大家都拿不准该怎么看待它。

They didn't quite know what to make of it.

我当时就想搞清楚，能不能让机器学会交易。

And my objective really was to see if I could get a machine to learn how to trade.

对吧？

Right?

那纯粹是个未知数。

That was just an open question.

说实话，我当时根本不确定这能不能做到。

You know, it wasn't clear to me that that was even possible.

几年后，我跟斯科特聊过一次，那是2015年，话题是：你敢把钱交给机器人管吗？

And, you know, after a few years, I had a conversation with Scott actually in 2015, you know, called should you trust your money to a robot?

我把投资市场按持有时间分成了三类。

And I sort of broke the investment landscape into three, holding periods.

高频、短期和长期。

You know, high frequency, short term, and long term.

高频是日内交易，短期是几天到几周，长期则是几周、几个月甚至几年。

High frequency being intraday, short term being days to weeks, and long term being like weeks to months to years.

那时候我觉得，AI在高频和短期投资上潜力巨大，因为数据够多，机器学习能捕捉到市场里那些细微的模式，而传统的线性模型根本看不出来。

And at that time, my position was that AI had tremendous potential in investing in the high frequency and the short term space because there was sufficient data and machine learning methods were actually capable of picking up on the nuances in markets that, you know, the cruder linear model has sort of missed.

我记得斯科特最后说了一句：好吧。

And I recall that Scott ended that conversation by saying, okay.

交易流水可能会消失，但私募和长期投资还是安全的。

So trading flows will disappear, but private equity and long term investing is safe.

我说，确实差不多就是这么回事。

And I said, yeah, that's pretty much the case.

有趣的是，2015年我也和他聊过类似的问题，就是我们能不能模拟他的思维。

And ironically, I'd had a similar con conversation with in 2015 about whether we could simulate him.

那时候我们觉得，用当时的工具根本做不到。

And at that time, we felt it just wasn't possible with the tools.

但到了2022年，随着大语言模型的出现，我们又重新考虑了这个问题。

But in 2022 with the emergence of LLMs, we sort of revisited that.

现在三年多过去了，我们准备下个月正式推出达莫达兰机器人，用于商业用途。

And now three years later, three plus years later, we're getting ready to release the Damodaran bot next month for, you know, commercial use.

我很有信心，我们已经相当不错地模拟出了他的思维方式。

And I'm fairly confident that we've actually managed to simulate his kind of thinking to a reasonable degree.

所以，如果你认同自由现金流和企业基本面分析这种投资方法，那我们确实已经做得相当到位了。

So to the extent that you actually believe in sort of a free cash flow model to the firm fundamentals approach to investing, we've actually managed to do that reasonably well.

我觉得，我们已经很接近了。

You know, I think we're close.

而且你知道，现在AI在长期系统性投资方面真的能发挥重要作用。

And, you know, we're there where AI can actually play a pretty significant role in sort of long term systematic investing.

那以前为什么长期投资很难用机器学习来做呢？

What was it about long term investing that made it difficult to use machine learning for long term investing previously?

我们都知道，机器学习早就用在高频交易上了，就是那些短期的操作。

I mean, we know that machine learning has been used for high frequency trading, you know, the stuff that is less long term, short term stuff.

但现在AI出现了，这件事就成了可能。

But then AI comes along and now it's possible.

那为什么现在可以做到了呢？

Why is it possible now?

传统上，大家对机器学习的理解都是监督学习。

So, you know, the the traditional view of machine learning is supervised learning.

就是你得有样本，靠这些样本来学习。

You have examples that you learn from.

但以前根本找不到足够多的样本或训练数据来支撑学习。

There's just weren't sufficient examples or training data to learn from.

对吧？

Right?

你知道吗，那位作者写的报告数量特别多，现在已经达到几千份了。

That, you know, know, the mother in is sort of exceptional in the in terms of the number of reports he's written, you know, which go into sort of the low thousands maybe at this point.

但这些数据还是不够用来训练AI，毕竟跟高频交易或短期领域里的数据量比起来差得太远了。

But that isn't sufficient data to really train an AI, like, you know, considering how you know, compared to how much data there was in the high frequency in the short term space.

所以当时根本缺乏足够的训练数据。

So there just wasn't enough training data.

现在不同了，我在书里提到过，那就是通用智能的出现——机器对各种事情都有所了解，常识推理和专业技能之间的界限被打破了。

What's different now, and this is something I write in my book, is this emergence of general intelligence where the machine knows something about everything and the division between common sense reasoning and expertise is broken down.

在我看来，这正是AI成为通用技术的关键所在。

To me, that's like the big deal about AI that's made it a general purpose technology.

过去我们总是人为地把专业知识和常识割裂开来，这一直是障碍。

That was always the hindrance that we sort of drew this artificial boundary between expertise and common sense.

而大语言模型的出现，让这个问题迎刃而解了。

And with LLMs, that became available.