SpaceX 明日上市——小心脚下

本节目由Odoo赞助支持。

Support for the show comes from Odoo.

经营企业需要你倾尽所有，但市面上很多号称能帮你减负的工具，根本没法好好协同工作。

Running a business takes everything you've got, and a lot of the tools out there that are supposed to make your life easier just aren't great at talking to each other.

结果呢？你不得不在十几个不同的应用和服务之间来回切换，只为维持基本运转。

And that means you end up having to toggle between a dozen different apps and services just to keep the lights on.

别再这样了。

Enough of that.

现在有了Odoo，这是一个全功能、深度整合的平台，真正能帮你把事情搞定。

Now there is Odoo, the all in one fully integrated platform that might actually help you get it all done.

成千上万的企业已经换了系统，你为什么还不试试？

Thousands of businesses have made the switch, so why not you?

立即免费试用Odoo，访问odoo.com。

Try ODDO for free at ODDO dot com.

网址是odoo.com。

That's odoo.com.

本节目由BCX赞助，这是私营科技公司的公开股票代码。

Support for the show comes from BCX, the public ticker for private tech.

美国股市开启了人类历史上规模最大的财富创造浪潮，从底特律的工人到奥马哈的农民，人人都能受益。

The US stock market started history's greatest wave of wealth creation from factory workers in Detroit to farmers in Omaha.

任何人都能拥有美国顶尖企业的股份。

Anyone can own a piece of the great American companies.

但如今，最具创新力的公司推迟上市，导致普通民众长期无缘参与——直到现在。

But today, our most innovative companies are staying private longer, which means everyday Americans are missing out until now.

现在推出VCX，一个面向私营科技公司的公开股票代码，您在任何股票交易平台都能买到。

Introducing VCX, a public ticker for private tech, now available wherever you buy stocks.

了解更多，请访问getvcx.com。

Visit getvcx.com for more info.

网址是getvcx.com。

That's getvcx.com.

投资前请仔细阅读相关材料，包括投资目标、风险、费用和开支。

Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses.

更多相关信息请访问 getvcx.com 查看基金招募说明书。

This and other information can be found in the fund's prospectus at getvcx.com.

这是付费赞助内容。

This is a paid sponsorship.

我不希望养出那种‘乖’的女孩。

I don't think I wanna raise girls who are nice.

乖女孩容易顺从，总按别人说的做，只为讨人喜欢。

Girls who are nice are pliable and do what other people tell them so that they can be liked.

本周《Project Swagger》邀请到的是非凡的舒娜·莱姆斯。

This week on project swagger, the incredible Shonda Rhimes.

《格蕾丝》大获成功后，我感觉压力特别大。

I felt really overwhelmed after Grace was a giant hit.

然后我就想，我该怎么再搞出一个这样的作品呢？

And then I thought, like, well, how am I supposed to do this again?

我们聊了当妈妈、自信、认识自己的价值，还有加税的事。

We talk about motherhood, confidence, knowing your worth, and adding tax.

如果你一上来就觉得自己非得接受这个条件，

If you go in already thinking to yourself, have to take a deal.

我非得做成这笔交易不可，

I have to make this deal.

那你从一开始就已经输了。

You've already lost.

现在就收听《Project Swagger》。

Listen now at Project Swagger.

一万七千。

17,000.

我感觉我马上就要开始了。

I feel like I'm gonna start.

我的货币市场很重要。

My Money markets matter.

如果钱是邪恶的，那这栋楼就是地狱。

If money is evil, then that building is hell.

节目开始了。

Show goes up.

诺亚希望举办一场促销活动，价格是这样定的。

The price of Noah wants a show sale.

欢迎来到Prof G市场。

Welcome to Prof G Markets.

我是埃德·埃尔森。

I'm Ed Elson.

今天是6月11号。

It is June 11.

咱们来看看昨天的市场关键数据。

Let's check-in on yesterday's market vitals.

总统特朗普对伊核谈判进展太慢感到不满后，主要股指全都下跌了超过百分之一点五。

The major indices all tumbled more than one and a half percent after president Trump expressed frustration that negotiations with Iran were taking too long.

标普500指数跌至五周来的最低点。

The S and P 500 hit a five week low.

随后在盘后交易时段，美国对伊朗多个目标发动了打击，布伦特原油价格随即上涨。

And then after hours, The US began striking multiple targets in Iran, at which point the price of Brent crude climbed.

与此同时，尽管发布了三年来最热的通胀数据，十年期国债收益率总体保持稳定。

Meanwhile, the yield on ten year treasuries was mostly stable despite the hottest inflation report in three years.

关于这一点，我们稍后再详细说。

More on that later.

好的。

Okay.

还有哪些值得关注的消息？

What else is happening?

这对人工智能行业来说是关键的一周。

It is a monumental week for the AI industry.

SpaceX今晚将公布定价，明天将在纳斯达克上市，这将是历史上规模最大的一次IPO。

SpaceX is expected to price tonight and will begin trading on the Nasdaq tomorrow in what will be the largest IPO of all time.

目前SpaceX的股票认购倍数已经超过四倍，反映出投资者需求至少达到三千亿美元。

Currently shares for SpaceX are more than four times oversubscribed, implying at least $300,000,000,000 in investor demand.

与此同时，OpenAI 本周早些时候悄悄提交了上市申请，紧随 Anthropic 之后。

Meanwhile, OpenAI filed confidentially for its IPO earlier this week, hot on the tail of Anthropic.

很快，公众就能首次深入了解人工智能企业的运营情况了。

So very soon, the public markets are going to get an unprecedented look into the business of AI.

与此同时，我们从甲骨文昨晚发布的财报中看到了投资者对人工智能的态度，股价因此暴跌了 8%。

In the meantime, we got a preview of investor sentiment on AI from Oracle's earnings last night, which sent the stock plummeting 8%.

关于人工智能投资的下一步走向，以及他对 SpaceX 上市的看法，我们采访了 D 公司科技研究主管吉尔·卢里亚。

For more on what is next for the AI trade and also his thoughts on the SpaceX IPO, we are speaking with Gil Luria, head of technology research at D.

A。

A.

Davidson。

Davidson.

吉尔，很高兴见到你。

Gil, it's good to see you.

这周市场大事连连，我觉得我们得先聊聊 SpaceX。

An unbelievably important week for the markets here, and I think we gotta start with SpaceX.

估值高达1.77万亿美元。

$1,770,000,000,000 valuation.

市销率达到了95倍。

It's priced at 95 times sales.

我对这个问题的看法，早就跟大家说得很清楚了。

I've made my opinion on the matter quite known to our audience.

我觉得这估值偏高了，不过我很想听听你的看法。

I think it's overvalued, but I'd love to hear your views.

我的观点更偏向于描述现状，而不是给出建议。

My view is going to be more descriptive than prescriptive.

我关注埃隆·马斯克的公司已经十多年了，它们很少按基本面来定价。

I've been following Elon Musk companies for more than a decade, and they rarely trade on fundamentals.

它们的估值方式，跟其他公司完全不一样。

They rarely trade on the same valuation metrics as other companies.

我一直在思考，为什么会这样。

And I've thought about why that is.

我觉得原因在于，埃隆玩了一个巧妙的把戏。

And I think the answer is that Elon has this trick that he plays.

他同时在经营三样东西：眼下实际的业务、正在发展的业务，还有那个宏大的梦想业务。

He has the business that he has today, the business that's on the come, and then the big dream business.

以特斯拉为例，他眼下做的业务就是卖车。

So for Tesla, the business he has today is selling cars.

正在发展的业务是机器人出租车。

The business that's on the come is Robotaxi.

再往后，还有Optimus机器人到处跑的场景。

And then somewhere down the line, there's Optimus robots running around.

对SpaceX来说，眼下是星链系统。

The equivalence for SpaceX is right now, we have Starlink.

接下来是轨道上的数据中心，最终目标是把一百万人送上火星。

Soon, we'll have orbital data centers, and then eventually, we're putting a million people at on Mars.

对吧？

Right?

这就让他能避开用当前业务的实际基本面来评估公司价值，因为总有一项更宏大的计划近在眼前，还有一项更庞大的愿景在更远的未来。

And that allows him to get away from having his companies valued on the fundamentals of what he has today because there's always something bigger coming near term and then something even bigger coming long term.

特斯拉就是这么操作的，而且他早就靠这套方法取得了成功。

And that's how he does it with Tesla, and he's been successful doing it with Tesla for a long time.

现在看来，这套方法似乎也在SpaceX身上奏效了。

And now it seems to be working for SpaceX.

不过话说回来，我很欣赏你在明天之前提醒大家保持警惕。

Having said all that, I think it's great that you're cautioning people ahead of tomorrow.

买家须谨慎。

Buyer beware.

我怀疑真会有多少人相信这个故事。

I'm skeptical how many people will actually believe in that story.

至于把人送上火星，说要让类人机器人走进世界，至少他们已经展示过一些原型，这还能让人接受。

And the putting people on Mars I mean, it's one thing to say we're gonna put these humanoid robots into the world, which, by the way, at least they've they've shown some models of how it would look.

但把人送上火星，对我来说，这就从乐观变成幻想了。

But putting people on Mars, to me, there's a it starts to go from optimism to delusion.

我怀疑真有多少人会相信这事真能成。

And I'm skeptical of how many people actually believe this thing is actually going to happen.

我觉得，一旦这些禁售期结束，市场上肯定会迎来一波抛售。

And I guess my thought is that we're gonna see a lot of selling activity, at least when these lockups start to expire.

你觉得这只股票全天会怎么走？接下来几周、几个月又会怎样？

So how do you think the stock will trade over the course of the day and, I guess, in in the in the next weeks and months as well?

我觉得股价会非常波动，而且会给整个市场带来很大不确定性。

I think it'll be very volatile, and I think that's gonna add a lot of volatility to the market.

因为一旦没有明确的估值参考，也没有可比公司，就像你说的，股价真能涨到收入的95倍。

Because when you don't have a valuation backdrop, when you don't have comparables, then to your point, it can trade at 95 times revenue.

也可能涨到50倍。

It can trade at 50 times.

甚至可能冲到150倍。

It could trade at a 150 times.

根本没什么道理可讲。

There's no rhyme or reason.

这其实取决于有多少人真正相信这个愿景，并且持续坚持下去。

It really is about how many people buy into that vision and continue to hold on to that vision.

而且明天我们会迎来一波兴奋点。

And there's the excitement that we're gonna have tomorrow.

之后还会迎来大规模的解禁潮。

There's gonna be the lockups, very significant lockups after that.

还会纳入一些指数。

There's gonna be index inclusions.

也会有被剔除出指数的情况。

There's gonna be index noninclusions.

我们本该预期这只股票的波动性会超过任何一只规模相当的股票。

We're I should we would should expect more volatility in this stock than anything we've seen in a stock of this size.

而且它还会对整个市场产生重大影响。

And again, it's gonna also have a big impact on the market.

其实影响已经出现了。

It already has.

为了支持这只股票，大量资金已经从其他科技股和整个AI板块撤出。

We've seen a lot of capital taken out of a lot of other technology stocks, lot of the rest of the AI trade in order to fund this.

如果他们发行750亿美元，而且认购倍数达到四倍，那就意味着投资者手上有3000亿美元随时准备投入。

Because if they're issuing 75,000,000,000 and it's four times oversubscribed, that means investors have $300,000,000,000 ready to invest.

他们未必能拿到全部配额，但必须备好现金，以防万一真的能拿到。

They're not gonna get their full allocation, but they have to have it in cash just in case they do.

所以市场上已经抽走了不少资金，接下来会发生什么，还得看情况才能知道。

So a lot of capital's already been pulled out of the market, and we're gonna have to see what happens in order to perpetuate this.

另外，OpenAI也要来了。

Plus, you've got OpenAI coming up.

Anthropic也要来了。

You've got Anthropic coming up.

谷歌即将进行850亿美元的股权融资。

You've got Google's $85,000,000,000 equity offering.

据说Meta也在考虑类似的操作。

You've got Meta supposedly considering a similar thing.

还有甲骨文，他们刚宣布了200亿美元的股权融资，你信不信。

You've got Oracle, which we could get into, which just announced a $20,000,000,000 equity offering, believe.

还有200亿美元的债务。

$20,000,000,000 in debt as well.

现在市场上发行的股票太多了，源源不断往里灌。

It's starting to get to the point where there is so much stock being issued into the markets, injected into the markets.

我都不确定投资者有没有足够的钱来买下这些股票。

I'm not totally sure if people even have the money to buy all of this stuff.

如果买不起，他们就得抛售手里的其他持仓。

And if they don't, then they're gonna have to sell their existing positions.

听起来你觉得这种情况其实已经在发生了，这也解释了为什么最近几天一些大型科技股出现了回调。

It sounds like you believe that that is what is already happening and that might describe why we've seen some of the drawdowns in some of the larger tech names over the past few days.

接下来真会这样吗？

Is that what's gonna happen?

你觉得情况会不会变得更糟？

And do you think it could get, I guess, worse?

是的。

Yeah.

会有大量资本在市场中来回流动。

There's gonna be a lot of floshing around of capital.

原因之一是，等OpenAI和Anthropic上市后，这种情况会更明显，因为SpaceX的规模比AI公司还大。

And and the reason is part of the reason, and this is gonna happen even more so when OpenAI and Anthropica public, because SpaceX is bigger than AI.

对吧？

Right?

它关乎太空探索，把人类意识扩展到星辰大海——这是马斯克亲口说过的话。

It's about space exploration and expanding consciousness into the stars, A literal quote from the s one.

没错。

Exactly.

但OpenAI和Anthropic才是纯粹的AI公司，是AI领域最直接的投资标的。

But OpenAI and Anthropic are the pure plays on AI, the big pure plays on AI.

到目前为止，如果你在市场里投资AI，都是通过买半导体、光通信、量子计算这些间接方式参与的。

So if so far in the market, you've invested every other way in AI by buying semis and optical and nuclear and quantum and all these other ways to invest indirectly in AI.

现在，你终于有机会直接投资AI了。

Now you're gonna get a chance to invest directly in AI.

所以，大量资金会从其他AI相关领域抽离，转向OpenAI和Anthropic。

And so, again, a lot of capital is gonna be pulled from the rest of the AI trade into OpenAI and Anthropic.

这部分原因在于竞争，你提到那些巨头正在进军资本市场。

And part of this is a race because you mentioned the mega caps are going to the capital markets.

这三家公司的IPO都要开始了。

These three IPOs are happening.

每家都打算筹集数百亿，甚至可能高达一千亿美元，但市场上能腾出来的资金是有限的。

This is each of them wants tens of billions, maybe even a $100,000,000,000 to raise, there's a finite amount of capital that can come out of everything else.

因此，在某种程度上，这是一场竞速。

And so to some extent, this is a race.

我记得OpenAI在秘密提交文件时说过，他们更愿意保持私有，但明白可能不得不上市——这其实就是说，他们得赶在Anthropic前面，或者至少紧随其后，不然对方会主导舆论，决定信息披露的内容和关键指标怎么定。

I think when we heard OpenAI what OpenAI said when they filed confidentially is we'd rather stay private, but we understand that we may need to go public, which is code for we may need to beat Anthropic out, or at least be soon after Anthropic because we don't want them to drive a narrative to drive how disclosures happen, what metrics get reported.

所以现在，所有这些大玩家都在争分夺秒地抢资本。

So a rush to capital right now from all these big players.

这说明了一件我觉得很重要的事：如果他们现在急着卖，那是因为他们觉得，要是拖到以后，可投资的资金会更少，根本卖不出现在这个价。

Which implies something which seems to me to be quite important, which is if they're racing to sell now, that's because they believe if they sell later, there will be less available capital and they won't be able to to command the prices at which they would like to sell today.

SpaceX 的时机把握得真不错。

So SpaceX seems to have timed it great.

但越往后看，像萨姆·阿尔特曼这样的CEO们似乎都觉得，以后能拿到的钱没这么多，这让我有点看空，说实话。

But the further you go down the line, then it seems like like these CEOs like Sam Altman believe there might not be as much capital available later down the line, which makes me feel a little bit bearish, to be honest.

这让我觉得，我们可能正处在高点。

It makes me think that maybe we're at the top.

他们现在急着出手，显然就是觉得现在是最好的时机。

They think that now is the time to sell clearly because that's what they're doing.

这让我觉得，下面可能要跌了。

It makes me think maybe look out below.

你觉得这个观点怎么样？这场IPO竞赛、这种IPO狂热，会不会其实是市场见顶的信号，至少对科技板块来说？

What do you think about that thesis that potentially this IPO race, this IPO mania could signal the top, at least for the tech sector?

从整体来看，我倒是更乐观一点，因为我真觉得AI模型非常强大，而且还在不断进步

I'm a little bit more optimistic from the overall perspective because I actually think the AI models are very powerful and they're getting a

好太多了。

lot better.

这个

The

过去几天使用Anthropic的Fable的人说，这又是一次巨大的飞跃。

folks that have been using Fable from Anthropic over the last couple of days are saying that's another big leap forward.

我们已经在其他AI模型上获得了大量使用。

And we're already getting a lot of good usage from the other AI models.

归根结底，这才是关键。

At the end of the day, this is what matters.

我们的用户愿意为AI服务付费订阅。

Our consumer's gonna pay subscriptions for AI.

我们公司也会为这些AI模型的调用付费。

Our company's gonna pay for the tokens coming from these AI models.

只要这种情况持续，我们就还会看到增长。

As long as that happens, we're gonna continue to see growth.

这些公司现在拼命抢钱。

What these companies are doing, they're racing to capital.

这并不意味着他们觉得自己的估值已经到顶了。

It's not necessarily that they're saying that their valuations are peaking.

他们只是在说你之前提到的：如果现在不把钱拿到手，以后可能就没机会了，因为别人早就排好队了。

They're saying what you said earlier, which is if I don't get the capital now, it may not be around later because everybody else will have stood in line first.

这是一场王与后之间的博弈。

This is a game of kings and queens.

想参与人工智能，没几十亿、上百亿美元根本玩不转。

You can't participate in AI without tens of billions and hundreds of billions of dollars.

如果你觉得这笔钱迟早会花完，那就得抢在前面。

And if you think that the couple's gonna run out at some point, you wanna be early.

顺便说一句，谷歌这周率先完成了巨额融资，值得称赞。

By the way, also compliments to Google for for being early with the very big fundraise this week.

至于亚马逊和微软，我可不觉得他们会一直躲在后面。

And and again, I wouldn't expect Amazon and Microsoft to to linger in the background.

他们明白这是一场竞速。

They understand this is a race.

他们知道自己的运营现金流正在逐渐耗尽，接下来必须筹到资金，才能继续建设AI计算数据中心。

They understand that they're starting to exhaust their operating cash flow, and they will need resources in order to keep building the AI compute data centers.

最后一个问题是，问完我们就放你走。

Final question, and then we'll let you go.

我不知道你愿不愿意回答，因为之前你好像没说清楚。

I dunno if you're gonna answer it because you didn't quite answer it before.

你觉得SpaceX是被高估了，还是被低估了？

Do you think SpaceX is overvalued or undervalued?

我一般不评价埃隆的公司，因为我觉得它们的估值从来就没合理过。

I try not to do that with Elon companies because I don't think their valuation has ever made sense.

说得有道理。

Fair enough.

这些估值跟基本面根本没关系。

It's never been had anything to do with fundamentals.

所以人们买的是一个梦想、一个故事和一份希望，有时候还真能成。

So, people are buying a dream and a story and hope, and sometimes that works out.

十五年前买下特斯拉股票的人，确实赚大了。

It sure did work out for Tesla holders that bought the stock fifteen years ago.

确实如此。

It did indeed.

好的。

All right.

吉尔·卢里亚，D公司科技研究主管。

Gil Luria, head of technology research at D.

A。

A.

戴维森。

Davidson.

吉尔，非常感谢你。

Gil, thank you so much.

感谢你抽出时间。

Appreciate your time.

谢谢。

Thank you.

五月同比通胀上升了4.2%，是三年来最高水平。

Inflation rose 4.2% in May from a year earlier, the hottest reading in three years.

燃油价格较一年前上涨了近60%，机票价格上涨了27%。

Fuel oil is up nearly 60% from a year earlier and airfare is up 27%.

连续第二个月实际工资下降，意味着物价上涨速度超过了薪资增长。

And for the second straight month, real wages fell, meaning prices are rising faster than paychecks.

这份报告让投资者重新思考美联储未来的政策走向。

The report has investors rethinking the Fed's path ahead.

今年年底前加息的概率现在大约是五成。

The odds of a rate hike before the end of the year are now around 50%.

关于柯西。

On Cauchy.

今天我们邀请到穆迪分析公司的首席经济学家马克·赞迪，来和我们聊聊这份通胀报告。

Joining us to discuss this inflation report, we are speaking with our friend Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.

马克，谢谢你来参加我们的节目。

Mark, thank you for joining me on the show.

每次见到你都特别好。

It's always good to see you.

我第一个问题就是，4.2%这个数字。

I guess my first question here, 4.2%.

说实话，这个数字让我很震惊。

I mean, this number is staggering to me.

听起来好像全是因为伊朗。

Seems like it's all Iran.

是这样吗？

Is that right?

埃德，很高兴能和你交流。

Ed, good to be with you.

不是。

No.

原因不止伊朗。

It's more than Iran.

伊朗当然是一个重要因素。

I mean, obviously, Iran's a big part of it.

通胀加速的主要原因是能源价格，但也跟关税有关。

The bulk of the of the inflation acceleration is energy prices, but it goes to the tariffs.

目前关税的影响还在持续传递。

There's still some tariff passed through.

严格的移民政策也产生了影响，波及多个行业，导致服务价格居高不下。

It goes to the restrictive immigration policy, which is, having an impact on different industries and causing sticky service price inflation.

还有人工智能，AI推高了对数据中心基础设施建设的需求，也因财富效应带动了消费支出。

And also AI, artificial intelligence, it the AI is juicing up demand, you know, of the data center infrastructure build out, consumer spending because of the wealth effects.

但目前为止，它还没能显著提升供给。

But it's not lifting supply, at least not yet to any significant degree.

到目前为止，生产率的提升其实很小。

The productivity boost so far has been pretty small.

需求增加了，但供给没跟上，这就推高了通胀。

So more demand, not as much supply that adds to inflation.

电价就能看出来。

Can see in electricity prices.

芯片价格也能看出来。

You can see it in chip prices.

这里头牵扯的因素可太多了。

So there's a lot of stuff going on here.

通胀上涨的原因有很多，但最主要还是伊朗战争。

Inflation is up for a lot of different reasons, but the bulk of it is is the Iran war.

接下来的问题是，这种情况会持续多久？

I guess the next question is how long is this gonna last?

我的意思是，它一直在往上蹿。

I mean, it's been going up and up and up.

如果我们维持在4.2%，那可是比美联储的目标高出两个百分点多了。

If we stick around at 4.2%, I mean, we're over two percentage points above the Fed's target rate.

这问题看起来是越来越严重了。

This problem only seems to be getting worse.

投资者最关心的是，这种情况到底会持续多久？

And I think the question on investors' minds is how long is this gonna persist?

这确实得看战争的发展。

Well, it does depend on the war.

对吧？

Right?

如果战争快到顶了，正在缓和，油价也不再上涨，就停在每桶100美元左右，稍微回落一点，那通胀最糟的阶段就过去了。

I mean, if, if the war is kind of, close to peaking, winding down here, and oil prices are not going any higher, they're gonna they're around a $100 a barrel if that's where they stay, come in a little bit.

但要说回到美联储觉得合适、舒适的2%通胀率，那是很久以后的事了。

Then the worst of the inflation is behind us, but, you know, there's no going back to the kind of 2% inflation rate that the Fed would consider to be appropriate, you know, comfortable for a long time.

我说的很久，是指明年这时候通胀可能还是高于目标，甚至后年也未必能降下来。

And when I say a long time, Ed, we'll be talking a year from now inflation will still be above target, maybe two years from now.

即使一切按计划发展，包括伊朗战争逐渐平息。

There even if everything sticks to script, including the Iran war winding down.

所以，虽然最糟糕的阶段可能过去了，但想回到从前的水平，短期内根本不可能。

So this is you know, we may be past the worst of it, but we're not getting back to where we were anytime soon.

你觉得情况还会恶化吗？

Do you think it will get worse?

这一点我真的拿不准会怎样发展。

This is the thing that I'm not sure what to expect.

还记得2022年吗？那时候通胀也突然飙升过。

I mean, we saw back in '22, we saw a similar thing of inflation kind of ripped back up.

一度涨到了9%。

It went as high as 9%.

情况真的很严重。

It got really bad.

我的意思是，这一轮通胀，你预计会恶化到什么程度？

I mean, how much worse do you expect it will get in this round of inflation?

我觉得总统最终会和伊朗达成协议，打通霍尔木兹海峡，让石油产量重新回升，油价也会随之回落。

Well, I do expect the the president to come to terms with the Iranians and open up the strait and get production oil production ramping up back up again and oil prices moving south again.

所以我认为这是最有可能发生的情况。

So I think that's the most likely scenario.

但正如你所暗示的，这里头有无数种可能，几乎每一种都比当前基准更糟，尤其是通胀会持续更久。

But as you as you, you know, are alluding to, there's a gazillion different scenarios here, and almost all of them are worse than the baseline, know, inflation being higher for longer.

不过，要回答你的问题，我觉得我们得盯紧通胀预期。

The one thing I do think that we need to watch, though, to answer your question is inflation expectations.

如果通胀预期，特别是债券市场的预期，继续攀升，那风险就在于通胀会变得更顽固、更根深蒂固，这对美联储的决策将产生重大影响。

I mean, if expectations continue to for inflation continue to rise, particularly bond market expectations, then the risk is that this inflation becomes more persistent, more entrenched, and obviously has big implications for what the Fed's gonna do.

到目前为止，通胀预期确实偏高，超出了美联储觉得安心的水平，但还没彻底失控，不过这一点确实值得密切关注。

So so far, you know, inflation expectations, they're on the high side of where I think the Fed would feel comfortable, but they haven't kind of breached to, you know, up to the upside, but that's something to watch to to answer your question.

我们不妨从博弈的角度想一想：假设特朗普根本没法和伊朗谈拢。

Just to game theory this out, like, let's imagine a world where Trump does not figure out how to negotiate with Iran.

那么霍尔木兹海峡就继续封锁，局势维持现状。

The strait remains closed or the situation persists as it is.

很难说到底是关闭了还是开放了，谁在封锁什么。

It's hard to tell whether it's closed or open or who's blockading what.

关键是，那边的情况并不乐观。

Point is, it's not going great over there.

我们只知道这么多。

That's all we know.

如果现状持续下去，就假设接下来六到九个月甚至十二个月都这样。

If it remains as is, call it for the next six, nine, twelve months.

情况会越来越糟，还是你觉得最终会稳定下来？

Does the number get worse and worse and worse, or do you expect that it will plateau at some point?

不会。

No.

那是个很糟糕的局面，因为我们的库存快耗尽了。

That's a pretty ugly scenario because we're running out of inventories.

全球石油库存一直在大幅减少。

I mean, you know, global inventories of oil have been being significantly drawn down.

我觉得得回到八十年代初，才能找到像现在这么低的库存水平。

I think you have to go back to the early eighties to find inventories as low as they are today.

而且如果跟经济规模相比，得回溯得更久才行。

And compared to the size of the economy, you have to go back even further.

现在根本没什么库存了。

So there's just no inventory.

如果战争没有结束，海峡不开通，产量也不回升，库存迟早会跌到出现实际短缺、实物短缺的地步。

And if, we don't see a resolution to the war, if the strait doesn't open, if production doesn't pick up, those inventories are gonna get to a place where we're gonna start seeing actual shortages, physical shortages.

美国可能还好，毕竟我们自己产很多油。

Maybe not in The United States because we produce a lot of oil.

我们产多少油，就消费多少油，但在世界其他地方就不一样了。

We produce as much oil as we consume, but in other parts of the world.

到那时候，交易员和其他人都会意识到，这事儿短时间解决不了。

And I think at that point, traders and everyone else would come to the conclusion that, well, this isn't gonna come to a quick end.

咱们这儿真出问题了。

You know, we got a problem here.

我们需要油价大幅上涨，才能让需求和减少的供应达到平衡，这意味着价格会涨得更高，进而推高通货膨胀。

We need much higher oil prices to equate demand with the reduced supply, and that means much higher prices, and that means much higher inflation.

在这种情况下，通胀预期可能会突破美联储认为可接受的上限，这可不是什么好局面。

And that that's a scenario where you do get inflation expectations, you know, breaching the upper limits of what the Fed would feel comfortable with, and that's a pretty dark scenario.

但这种情况显然不是空想，而是有相当可能性会发生的。

But, clearly, the scenario with a pro a meaningful probability attached to it.

换句话说，这一切似乎都取决于特朗普能否与伊朗达成协议。

In other words, it sounds like almost all of this rests on Trump's ability to negotiate a deal with Iran.

听起来你对他能在近中期成功促成此事还挺有信心的。

It sounds like you are somewhat confident that he will pull that off in the near to medium term.

我想问的是，你为什么这么认为？

I guess my question is why do you feel that way?

你知道，总统这个人，不管你怎么看他，有一点是肯定的——如果事情没按他想的走，他立马能来个180度转弯，宣布自己赢了，然后转身走人。

Well, you know, the president, you know, whatever you think of him, the one thing you can say is that, you know, he if things aren't working out in the way he wants them to, he'll pivot 180 degrees, declare victory, and move on.

至少目前为止，他一直都是这么做的。

At least that's been what he's done so far.

所以我用同样的逻辑来推测他接下来会怎么做。

So I'm applying the same kind of logic to my thinking around what he's gonna do here.

他显然急着想找个台阶下，好体面地收场，然后赶紧翻篇。

He's desperately, obviously, trying to figure out a way to wind this thing down to clear victory and move on.

希望他能早点找到出路吧。

So, hopefully, he finds that sooner rather than later.

否则，我们就要遭大罪了。

Otherwise, we're gonna be in a boatload of hurt.

如果他接下来几周、最多一个月内还谈不拢，那就是经济衰退的场景了——滞胀型衰退。

And, you know, that the the scenario where he doesn't come to terms in the next few weeks, next month or so, you know, that's that's the recession scenario, a stagflation recession scenario.

我个人没那么乐观，但有一部分原因是，他之前说过自己并不担心这事。

I personally don't feel so optimistic about it, but part of it is something some of the things that he said about he's not worried about it.

而且他昨天还提到了通胀的问题。

And then he also said this thing about inflation yesterday.

我们有他当时说这段话的视频片段。

We have a clip of of what he said.

有人问他关于这份通胀报告的事。

He was asked about this inflation report.

我这就放一下这段视频，很想听听你的看法。

I'm I'm just gonna play this clip, and I'd love to get your reactions.

不用了。

No.

我太喜欢了。

I love it.

这些数据其实是在试图说明——你知道我最欣赏什么吗？

The numbers were just trying to You know what I really love?

我最喜欢的就是通胀。

I love the inflation.

你知道为什么吗？

You know why?

因为只要这场战争一结束，我现在就可以说了。

Because as soon as this war is over you know, I can say it now.

有一件事你可能不知道。

Something you didn't know.

你知道我们一直在撤出数百万桶石油吗？

Do you know we've been taking out millions of barrels of oil?

没人知道这件事。

Nobody knows it.

你知道谁一直不知道吗？

You know who doesn't know about it?

伊朗，直到现在才得知。

Iran until right now.

所以特朗普说他喜欢通胀，因为他们在撤出石油。

So Trump says he loves inflation because they're taking barrels out.

我不太明白他到底想表达什么。

I don't fully understand what he's saying.

有没有办法理解他这话的意思？

Is there any way to make sense of what he's saying?

如果你都搞不明白，我觉得我也完全搞不懂。

If you can't make make sense of it and I don't think I could I I certainly can't.

我不太清楚他到底在说什么。

I I'm not sure what he's talking about.

我的意思是，我真的不知道。

I mean, I don't know.

通货膨胀在各个方面都是最糟糕的。

There's nothing worse than inflation on every level.

对消费者不利，对家庭不利，对企业不利，对投资者不利，对美联储也不利。

I mean, you know, it's bad for consumers, bad for households, it's bad for businesses, it's bad for investors, it's bad for the Federal Reserve Board.

这完全是输输输输，没有一丝赢面。

It's a lose, lose, lose, lose.

所以我真的不知道。

So I don't know.

我实在想不通。

I don't get it.

但我也不确定是不是该太当真，说这真是他真实的想法。

But I'm not sure I don't know that I attach a whole lot of weight to that you know, and say that that's what he actually believes.

说实话，我不觉得情况真是这样。

You know, I'm not sure that's the case.

好的。

Okay.

马克·赞迪，穆迪分析公司的首席经济学家。

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.

马克，感谢你做客《Prof G 市场》。

Mark, thank you for joining us on Prof G Markets.

随时都行，埃德。

Anytime, Ed.

非常感谢。

Thanks so much.

广告之后，苹果的AI战略再次让人失望。

After the break, Apple's AI strategy disappoints again.

想获取更多市场洞察？欢迎订阅我的每周通讯《Simply Put》，网址是 simplyput.profgmedia.com。

And for even more markets insights, you can subscribe to my weekly newsletter, Simply Put, at simplyput.profgmedia.com.

嘿。

Hey.

大家最近怎么样？

What's up, guys?

我是安德鲁·雷，也就是Babish，非常高兴能为Vox Media主持一档新播客，叫《In the Booth with Babish》。

It's Andrew Ray aka Babish, and I'm so excited to be hosting a new podcast with Vox Media called In the Booth with Babish.

每期节目里，我都会邀请名人、厨师和其他有趣的人，一边做饭，一边聊聊天。

In every episode, I'll be sitting down with celebrities, chefs, and other fascinating folks to make a meal out of conversation.

《In the Booth with Babish》每两周更新一集，你可以在YouTube上观看，或者在任意播客平台收听。

New episodes of In the Booth with Babish drop every other Tuesday, and you can watch on YouTube or listen wherever you get your podcasts.

干杯。

Cheers.

本节目由SoFi赞助支持。

Support for the show comes from SoFi.

如果你是家长，正在帮孩子应对大学开销，你一定知道费用涨得有多快。

If you're a parent helping your child navigate college, you know just how fast the cost can pile up.

学费、住宿费、教材费，再加上日常生活开销，供孩子上大学是一笔不小的经济负担。

Between tuition, housing textbooks, and everyday living expenses, funding higher education is a major financial commitment.

这时候，今天的赞助商SoFi就派上用场了。

That's where today's sponsor, SoFi, comes in.

SoFi提供私人学生贷款，可以覆盖学校认证的全部费用，不仅包括本科和研究生的学费，还能帮您支付住宿、教材、伙食以及其他与学业相关的开销。

SoFi offers private student loans that can cover up to a 100% of school certified costs, not just undergrad and graduate tuition, but SoFi can also help cover housing, books, food, and other education related expenses.

SoFi的私人学生贷款主打灵活便捷。

SoFi's private student loans are all about flexibility.

提供有竞争力的固定或浮动利率，多种还款期限可选，月供也能根据你的预算灵活调整。

They offer competitive fixed or variable rates, multiple term options, and monthly payments so you can build around your budget.

申请全程在线完成，几分钟内就能查看你的贷款利率。

The application process is completely online, and you can check your rate in minutes.

对于全家一起规划的，如果加上一位符合条件的共同借款人，还有望获得更低的利率。

And for families exploring their options together, adding a qualified cosigner may help improve chances of securing a lower interest rate.

而且完全没有任何费用。

And there are zero fees required.

也就是说，没有申请费，也没有滞纳金，一切明明白白。

That means no origination fees or late fees, no surprises.

你看到的数字，就是你最终要还的金额。

What you see is what you pay back.

前往 sofi.com/profgstudent 查看你的贷款选项，以更聪明的方式资助你的学业。

Head to sofi.com/profgstudent to check your options and get your education funded the smarter way.

网址是 sofi.com/profgstudent。

That's sofi.com/profgstudent.

由 SoFi 银行，NA 会员 FDIC 发放。

Originated by SoFi Bank, NA member FDIC.

具体条款和条件适用。

Terms and conditions apply.

请理性借贷。

Please borrow responsibly.

本节目由Odoo赞助支持。

Support for the show comes from Odoo.

经营企业已经够难了。

Running a business is hard enough.

干嘛还要用十几个互不相通的软件，让自己更麻烦呢？

So why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other?

一个用来管销售，一个管库存，再一个单独管财务。

One for sales, another for inventory, a separate one for accounting.

还没反应过来，你就被一堆软件淹没了，根本没心思发展业务。

Before you know it, you are drowning in software instead of growing your business.

这时候，Odoo就派上用场了。

This is where Odoo comes in.

Odoo是你这辈子唯一需要的商业软件。

Odoo is the only business software you'll ever need.

它是一个一体化、完全集成的平台，能处理所有事务。

It's an all in one fully integrated platform that handles everything.