本集简介
双语字幕
仅展示文本字幕，不包含中文音频；想边听边看，请使用 Bayt 播客 App。
我是伊娜·加滕，每周在《欢乐时光》节目中，我都会邀请新老朋友来纽约的厨房餐桌旁，一起喝一杯，聊聊天。
I'm Ina Garten, and each week on "Happy Hour," I invite old and new friends for a drink and a fun conversation at my kitchen table in New York City.
本周的节目，我请来了安迪·巴拉加尼。
On this week's episode, I'm joined by Andy Baraghani.
我们聊了很多，从他十几岁在Chez Panisse开始职业生涯，到因为烹饪视频成为网络红人，再到今年秋天在纽约开第一家餐厅。
We talk all about how he started his career as a teenager at Chez Panisse, to becoming an internet heartthrob from his cooking videos, to opening his first restaurant in New York City this fall.
《欢乐时光》的新一期节目每周三更新。
New episodes of "Happy Hour" are available every Wednesday.
你可以在YouTube上观看，或者在任何你收听播客的平台上收听。
You can watch on YouTube or listen wherever you get your podcasts.
干杯。
Cheers.
我是梅根·拉皮诺。
Megan Rapinoe here.
本周的《你为什么这样？》节目。
This week on "Why Are You Like This?"
我在和Jaden Shaw聊天。
I am talking with Jaden Shaw.
我们聊了Gotham中场球员职业生涯中的高光时刻、低谷和意想不到的转折。
We're diving into the highs, the lows, the unexpected turns the Gotham midfielder has gone through in her career.
我还会点评美国女足国家队最新公布的大名单，她们正在为明年夏天的世界杯做准备。
I'm also weighing in on the latest USWNT roster to drop on their road to the World Cup next summer.
快去收听《Why Are You Like This?》的最新一期节目吧。
Check out the latest episode of "Why Are You Like This?"
你可以在任何播客平台或YouTube上观看。
wherever you get your podcasts and on YouTube.
在拥挤的火车上占座，不说借过，不带耳机用手机看视频。
Hogging seats on a crowded train, not saying excuse me, watching videos on your phone with no headphones in.
有时候感觉我们好像都不知道该怎么做了。
Sometimes it feels like we don't know how to act anymore.
我们越来越多地看到人们违反规则。
What we have been seeing, increasingly, is people breaking rules.
如果别人都不守规矩，我凭什么要守规矩？
Why should I play by the rules if nobody else is going to do that for me?
本周的《给我解释一下》节目，我们来聊聊如何讲礼貌。
This week on "Explain It to Me," how to mind your manners.
每周日更新，你可以在任何播客平台收听。
New episodes Sundays, wherever you get your podcasts.
听我说。
Listen to me.
市场比我们想象的要大。
Markets are bigger than us.
你现在看到的是财富分配的结构性变化。
What you have here is a structural change in the wealth distribution.
现金就是垃圾。
Cash is trash.
股票看起来相当有吸引力。
Stocks look pretty attractive.
总得有个东西要崩。
Something's got to break.
别管它了。
Forget about it.
欢迎收听《Prof G 市场》。
Welcome to "Prof G Markets."
这周第三季度结束了，有很多东西要聊。
This week marked the end of the third quarter, and there is a lot to unpack.
有AI研究人员警告说，这项技术可能对人类构成生存威胁。
We had AI researchers warning that the technology could pose an existential threat to humanity.
美联储三年来首次加息。
The Fed raised rates for the first time in three years.
国债收益率创下几十年新高，我们也开始对Anthropic的IPO有了些眉目。
Treasury yields hit multi-decade highs, and we started to get a sense of what we're going to see in the Anthropic IPO.
这些只是其中的几个亮点。
Those are just a few of the highlights.
所以我们想退一步，梳理一下这个季度发生了什么，最重要的收获是什么，以及我们对今年最后一个季度可以有什么期待。
So we wanted to take a step back and break down what happened this quarter, what the biggest takeaways are, and what we can expect heading into the final quarter of the year.
为了帮助我们理解这一切，我们请来了一位嘉宾，他一直在帮我们解读今年的头条新闻，分辨哪些是真正重要的信息，哪些只是噪音。
So to help us make sense of it all, we are joined by a guest who has been helping us navigate this year's headlines and separate the signal from the noise.
下面是我们与史蒂夫·艾斯曼的对话，他是投资分析师、投资组合经理，也是《大空头》里的传奇人物。
Here is our conversation with Steve Eisman, investment analyst, portfolio manager, and Big Short legend.
史蒂夫，很高兴你再次来到我们的节目。
Steve, great to have you back on the show.
我想从一段你非常火的视频片段开始。
I want to start with a clip that you went very viral for.
这是你最近在CNBC接受采访时的一段，当时你们在讨论那些AI公司发出的各种末日威胁，说人类有10%的概率会因为AI而灭绝，甚至还有更高的概率。
This was from your recent interview on CNBC, where you all were discussing all of these doomerist threats from these AI companies, saying that there's a 10% chance that humanity will go extinct because of AI, or even higher probability ratings.
你对此有非常有趣的看法。
You had a very interesting take on the matter.
很多人都听到了。
A lot of people heard it.
我这就放给你听，然后听听你的反应。
I'm going to play it, and we'll get your reaction.
那种《终结者》式的说法完全是胡说八道。
The idea that this whole Terminator thing is nonsense.
所以我觉得，实际情况完全不是那么回事。
So I think something completely different is going on.
我认为，现在的情况是，堆算力的时代已经结束了。
And what I think is happening is that token maxing is over.
开源模型正在抢占大量市场份额。
The open weight models are taking big market share.
我觉得这些公司现在非常紧张。
I think these companies are very nervous.
他们意识到自己的业务根本没有护城河，所以想制造一场危机，推动监管出台，然后他们觉得可以利用监管来建立护城河，打造他们想要的双头垄断。
They realize that there are no moats around their business whatsoever, and they're trying to manufacture a crisis that will create regulation, that they think they can then manipulate to create the moats, to create the duopoly that they want.
你再说说，你这话具体是什么意思？
Talk more about what you mean by all of that.
哇，我不知道那个居然火了。
Wow, I didn't know that went viral.
谢谢你告诉我。
Thanks for letting me know.
确实火了。
It did.
我从小读了很多科幻小说，多到离谱的那种。
I grew up reading a tremendous amount of science fiction, like an insane amount.
我觉得挺有意思的是，硅谷那些人基本上读的科幻小说跟我差不多多。
And I'm just amused by the fact that I think all these people who live in Silicon Valley basically read almost as much science fiction as I did.
他们只是特别当真。
They just take it very seriously.
这挺搞笑的，但我觉得也是事实。
And that's funny, but I think also true.
首先，完全没有证据表明AI离AGI有多近。
First of all, there's absolutely no evidence whatsoever that AI is anywhere close to AGI.
没有。
None.
完全没有。
Absolutely none.
人工智能其实就是一个预测下一个词的模型。
What AI is, is a next-word retrieval model.
就是这样。
That's what it is.
它不会思考。
It doesn't think.
而且没有任何证据表明它将来会思考。
And there's no evidence at all that it's ever going to think.
也许有一天它会，但即便如此，认为它会真的变成《终结者》那样的东西，我觉得太疯狂了。
Now, maybe one day it will, but even so, the idea that somehow that is going to literally create "Terminator," I think is insane.
顺便说一句，我重新看了《终结者1》和《终结者2》。
By the way, I re-watched "Terminator 1" and "Terminator 2."
还是很好看的。
Still good.
对吧？
Okay?
这两部电影我都非常喜欢，虽然特效现在看起来确实不怎么样了。
I enjoyed both movies enormously, even though the sci-fi effects obviously weren't so great anymore.
当有人说世界末日要来了，我根本不当回事。
When somebody says that the world's about to end, I just don't take it seriously.
所以我问自己，好吧，如果他们真的不相信世界会毁灭，也许有些人信，但我认为高层里没人真信。
So I ask myself, okay, if they really don't believe that the world's going to end, maybe some of them do, but I don't think any of the senior people really do.
那到底是怎么回事？
What's really going on?
而在过去六个月左右发生的变化是，如果回到六个月前，token 使用量简直疯狂。
And what has changed in the last six months or so is, if we were going back six months, token maxing was going crazy.
公司员工基本上被告知，用 AI 用到吐，然后再多用点。
Employees at firms were basically told, use AI till you're ill, and then use it some more.
我们会追踪你，还会把你放到排行榜上。
And we're going to track you, and we're going to put you on a leaderboard.
我会盯着你，确保你全天候使用AI。
I'm going to track you to make sure that you are using AI 24/7.
结果呢，他们几个月内就把预算花光了。
And what happened was they blew through their budgets within months.
所以今年夏天某个时候，我觉得token maxing大概就结束了。
So sometime this summer, I think token maxing probably ended.
我觉得所有用AI的企业，数量可不少，都变得对成本敏感多了。
I think everybody who uses AI, which is a lot of enterprises, have gotten a lot more cost-conscious.
与此同时，开放权重模型真的成熟起来了，据我所知，它们开始抢占非常大的市场份额。
And at the same time, the open weight models have really come into their own and, as far as I can tell, are starting to take very, very large market share.
所以如果我是Anthropic或OpenAI，我会紧张，因为以前市场全是我一个人的，现在不是了。
So if I was Anthropic and OpenAI, I'd be nervous because I had everything to myself and now I don't.
那我该怎么办呢？
So what can I do about that?
所以，如果我能制造一场危机，推动监管介入，然后监管者来了，我能操纵他们，让他们不想要开放权重模型，那突然之间我就成了双头垄断。
So if I can manufacture a crisis where there's regulation, and then the regulators come in and I can manipulate them so that we don't want the open weight models, all of a sudden I've got a duopoly.
我觉得这才是这一切的真正目的。
And that's what I think this is really all about.
这跟我们这周刚得到的消息非常相关，我们现在对Anthropic的运营状况有了些了解。
Well, this is very relevant to the news that we just got this week, which is we now have some insight into how Anthropic is doing as a business.
这是路透社的报道。
This was the reporting from Reuters.
谁知道呢，等这期节目播出的时候，也许S-1文件已经完整公开了。
Who knows, by the time this episode comes out, maybe the S-1 will actually be fully out.
但就我们对Anthropic这家公司的了解，去年他们创造了46亿美元的收入，比2024年增长了超过1000%。
But what we know about Anthropic as a company, last year, they generated $4.6 billion in revenue, up more than 1,000% from 2024.
收入增长惊人。
Extraordinary revenue growth.
但他们的运营亏损超过了80亿美元。
But their operating losses came out to more than $8 billion.
他们的净亏损，虽然有个很大的前提，就是其中很大一部分是跟这些融资工具重新估值相关的非现金支出，但即便如此，净亏损也差不多有420亿美元。
And their net loss, which has a giant caveat, which is that a big portion of this number was a non-cash charge tied to revaluing these financing instruments, but still, the net loss was almost $42 billion.
运营层面亏损80亿美元。
$8 billion on an operating basis.
所以我们大概应该主要关注那80亿美元的运营亏损。
So we should probably pay most of our attention to the $8 billion operating loss.
80亿美元已经够糟糕的了。
$8 billion is bad enough.
我们没必要去纠结那400亿。
We don't need to pursue the 40.
对。
Yes.
我们就看那80亿，因为那个没有星号——
We'll stick with the eight because there are no asterisks-
……没有任何附加条件。
... there are no caveats.
这是一个真实的数字。
That is a real number.
这就是他们去年日常运营亏损的金额。
That is how much they're losing, or they lost last year just from day-to-day operations.
你对这些数字怎么看？
What do you make of those numbers?
这对AI业务说明了什么？是否证实了你对这个危机制造者的怀疑？
What does it say about the AI business, and does it confirm your suspicions related to this crisis manufacturer?
我觉得2025年的数字不重要。
I don't think the 2025 numbers matter.
好的。
Okay.
我想看到的是……
I think what I want to see is...
其实我还有一个阴谋论，就是——
I actually have another conspiracy theory, which is-
好的。
Okay
……Anthropic现在上市的原因，我不完全确定自己是对的，但如果我猜对了，那这个理由挺有意思的。
... the reason why Anthropic is going public now, and I'm not 100% sure I'm right here, but if I am right, it's a good one.
那就是，我觉得Anthropic现在上市，可能是因为今年上半年业绩看起来特别好，因为token消耗量大，而且没有开源权重模型竞争。
Which is that I think Anthropic might be going public now because the first half of the year looks really good because of token maxing and the lack of open weight models.
而且可能当他们公布第三季度数据时，因为IPO时还不用公布，所以第三季度数据可能会显示出一些放缓，因为token消耗高峰结束了。
And maybe when they report their third quarter numbers, which they won't have to report when they do the IPO because it'd be too early, the third quarter numbers might show something of a slowdown because of the end of token maxing.
我其实觉得到第四季度，我们肯定会看到放缓。
I actually think by the fourth quarter, we'll definitely see a slowdown.
所以我觉得他们需要现在上市。
And so I think they needed to go public now.
我更感兴趣的是比较2026年上半年和下半年的情况。
I'm more interested in comparing the first half of 2026 versus the second half.
你觉得2025年的数据有什么参考价值吗，还是说我们只需要关注现在的情况？
Do you take anything from the 2025 numbers, or do you think that we purely need to understand what's going on right now?
因为说实话，我们对他们在2026年的表现一无所知。
Because to be clear, we don't know anything about how they've done in 2026.
我们听到了一些传闻，在一些报道里。
We've heard some rumors, in some of the reporting.
当然，有报道说他们可能在季度基础上实现了调整后的运营盈利。
There was, of course, the reporting that they might have achieved adjusted operating profitability on a quarterly basis.
但接着我们就会琢磨，这个调整后的运营盈利到底意味着什么，这里头有不少大问题。
But then we kind of dig into what does the adjusted operating profitability actually mean, and there are some big questions there.
你现在在关注什么？从我们目前掌握的信息里，能不能看出这家公司实际经营得怎么样？
What are you looking for right now, and is there anything we can glean from the current information that we have to understand how this business is actually doing?
我觉得路透社关于2024和2025年的那些信息，对大家来说不会太有参考价值。
I don't think the information that came out in Reuters about 2024 and 2025 is going to be all that relevant to people.
大家会想看2026年的情况，而且会想拿公司对2026年下半年的说法和上半年做个对比。
People are going to want to look at 2026, and they are going to want to compare what the company's saying about the second half versus the first half of 2026.
我觉得那才是最关键的。
I think that's the most relevant.
这种制造危机，你觉得这些公司是真的遇到麻烦了，还是他们自己觉得遇到麻烦了？
This crisis manufacturing, do you think that these companies are actually in trouble, or do you think that they think that they're in trouble?
我真的不知道。
I really don't know.
我觉得他们很紧张。
I think they're nervous.
他们现在到底有多麻烦？
How in trouble are they are at this point?
我不知道。
I don't know.
我觉得他们看到自己在失去市场份额。
I think they see that they're losing market share.
我觉得你开始看到各个玩家之间爆发价格战的迹象，这非常糟糕。
I think that you're starting to see signs of a price war breaking out by all the various players, which is very bad.
我觉得我在CNBC上说的，这个行业没有护城河，这真的很对。
I think what I said on CNBC, that this business has no moats, I think is really true.
谷歌的搜索业务，几十年来一直有不可逾越的护城河。
Google, with its search, had a moat that was insurmountable for decades.
这些公司都没有任何护城河。
None of these companies have any moats.
今天这个模型领先，明天那个模型领先。
One day, one model is up, next day, another model is up.
今天Muse领先，明天又是别人领先。
One day, Muse is up, the next day, somebody else will be up.
你做的事情没有任何保护。
There's nothing protecting what you're doing.
那这是否意味着可能存在泡沫？
Does that indicate, then, the possibility of a bubble?
你以预测2008年泡沫而闻名。
You are famous for predicting the bubble of 2008.
那你现在怎么看AI泡沫存在的可能性？
Where are you in your perspective on the possibility of the existence of an AI bubble at this point?
让我担心的是集中风险。
What worries me is the concentration risk.
因为你看英伟达，比如，它的营收增长超过100%，但70%的应收账款来自五个客户。
Because if you look at NVIDIA, for example, and you look at, NVIDIA had revenue growth of over 100%, but 70% of their accounts receivable were from five accounts.
再看那些超大规模云服务商，他们70%的AI收入来自OpenAI和Anthropic。
If you look at the hyperscalers, 70% of their AI revenue is from OpenAI and Anthropic.
整个链条基本上都流向了Anthropic和OpenAI。
The whole chain basically flows to Anthropic and OpenAI.
如果这两家公司成功了，一年后我们再坐在这里会说，‘哇，AI真是……’
If those two companies succeed, we'll be back in a year from now and saying, "Wow, AI is really..."
……太厉害了。
... triumphing.
但如果这两家公司出了问题，那我觉得整个链条都会陷入困境。
But if there's a problem with those two companies, then I think the whole chain is in trouble.
我想知道你对当前科技股估值的看法，因为我一直在思考并关注循环融资问题和集中风险问题，正如你所说，这在我看来是个大问题。
I'm wondering what you make of current valuations in tech, because I have been thinking about and looking at the circular financing problem for a long time, and the concentration risk problem, which to me, as you say, seems like a very big deal.
但我好奇的是，这些风险在多大程度上已经被市场消化了。
But I wonder the extent to which that is actually priced in.
我们在节目里也聊过，英伟达按远期市盈率来看，其实比过去几年便宜不少。
And something we've been talking about on the show is the fact that NVIDIA, on a forward earnings multiple basis, is actually quite cheap compared to the past several years.
你觉得华尔街对这种情况了解得很透彻吗？
Do you think this is a dynamic that Wall Street understands quite well?
你觉得投资者真的把这些风险想明白了吗？
Do you think that investors have their heads wrapped around these risks?
你觉得他们有没有把这些风险计入定价？
And do you think that they are pricing it in?
我喜欢别人问我这个问题，因为我的答案是：我完全不知道。
I love when people ask me that question, because my answer to that question is I have no freaking idea.
我的答案是，我们得搞一场超大规模的集体心理治疗——把一百万人全塞进一个房间里，然后我们——
My answer is we would need to have a massive group therapy session- ... where all one million of us are in a room, and we-
对
Yes
……传递接力棒，说：“嘿，你在想什么？”
... pass the baton and say, "Hey, what are you thinking?"
我真的从来不知道市场到底定价了什么，没定价什么。
I literally never know what is and is not priced into the market.
从来不知道。
Never.
我确实认为，关于AI有一个正面的叙事，也有一个负面的叙事，我不清楚哪一个会占上风。
What I do think is that there's a narrative about AI that's positive, and then there's a narrative about AI that's negative, and it's not clear to me which one of those is going to succeed.
但我确实认为，在接下来的六个月内，某个时候我们会更清楚。
But I do think at some point, within the next six months, we'll have a better idea.
你会不会说，在2008年，你确实了解市场定价了什么，特别是很多风险没有被定价进去？
Would you not say that in 2008, you did have an understanding of what was priced into the market, specifically that there was a lot that wasn't priced in?
哦，当然。
Oh, absolutely.
我学到这个是因为我记得贝尔斯登，他们在2007年5月有一个固定收益基金爆仓了。
I learned this because I remember when Bear Stearns, they had this fixed income fund that blew up in May of 2007.
那个基金做的事情就是投资次级抵押贷款证券。
And what that fund had done was invest in subprime paper.
我记得有个卖方分析师，跟我关系很好，他在一家深度参与次级抵押贷款证券的公司工作。
And I remember there was a sell-side analyst who I was very friendly, he worked at a firm that was very heavily involved in subprime paper.
他是做金融服务行业分析的。
He was a financial services analyst.
他问我发生了什么，我就说：“你为什么不坐电梯下去两层，去问问你们自己的交易部门呢？”
And so he asked me what was going on, and I said, "Well, why don't you just get in the elevator, go down two floors, and go talk to your own desk?"
我意识到，股票部门的人之所以不知道发生了什么，是因为这不是股票的事，而是固定收益的事。
And what I realized was that the reason that the equity people didn't know what was going on because it wasn't an equity story, it was a fixed income story.
除非你深入了解固定收益领域，否则你根本没法搞清楚状况。
And unless you immersed yourself in the world of fixed income, there was no way you could figure out what was going on.
但这次不一样。
That's not true here.
这次是科技领域的事，我觉得大家都明白，这里存在巨大的集中风险。
This is a tech story, which I think everybody understands there's massive concentration risk.
我觉得即使是那些非常看好的人也会这么说。
I think even the people who are very bullish would say that.
归根结底，我认为至少目前来说，这取决于OpenAI和Anthropic能否成功，这个说法是对的。
And at the end of the day, I think the statement that, at least for now, it depends on OpenAI and Anthropic being successful, I think is true.
也许他们会成功，一切都会好起来。
Now, maybe they'll be successful and it'll all be okay.
但也可能不会。
And then again, maybe not.
我还不确定。
I don't know yet.
你还提到了一些表外债务问题，这些问题在AI领域和数据中心领域似乎越来越普遍。
You've also talked about some of the off-balance sheet debt issues that are becoming more and more pervasive, it seems, in AI world, in data center world.
你能谈谈我们在债务发行方面看到的情况吗？可能的风险是什么？以及这对当前的AI建设有多大的系统性和重要性？
Could you speak a little bit to what we're seeing there in terms of debt issuance, what the risks might be, and how systemic and important it is to the AI build-out right now?
嗯，今年大约有5000亿美元的AI债务被筹集。
Well, there's something like $500 billion worth of AI debt being raised this year.
其中有多少是表外项目？
How much of that is off the balance sheet?
我还不清楚。
I don't know yet.
我觉得这个数字不小。
I don't think it's insignificant.
我觉得他们搞这些表外操作的原因，最好的说法就是，他们想尽量保住自己的信用评级。
I think the reason why they're doing some of these off-balance sheet shenanigans, is the best way I could put it, is they're trying to preserve their credit ratings as much as possible.
所以如果能把它弄到表外，就像变魔术一样，好像它就不存在了。
So if you can get it off balance sheet, it's like poof, magic, it doesn't exist.
评级机构也不会把它算进去。
And the ratings agencies won't count it.
这种把戏我以前见过。
I've seen this movie before.
你以前就经历过这种把戏。
You've been in that movie before.
通常这种事的结局都不太好。
It usually doesn't end well.
我经历过那种事。
I've been in that movie.
所以我有点震惊。
So I'm kind of appalled.
Meta去年做了一笔将近300亿美元的交易，在路易斯安那州建数据中心，他们搞了一个表外工具，基本上那300亿的债务什么的都不出现在他们的资产负债表上。
Meta, last year, did an almost $30 billion deal where they're building a data center in Louisiana, and they created some off-balance sheet vehicle where basically all 30 billion of debt or something like that doesn't show up on their balance sheet.
如果你去看Meta的10-K报告，里面有三四段，审计师用很绕的描述来解释这件事。
And if you go into Meta's 10-K, there's an entire three or four paragraphs where the auditor goes through a tortured description.
说‘绕’都不足以形容这里面的情况。
Torture doesn't even begin to tell you what's going on here.
但就是那种很绕的描述，解释这笔交易为什么放在表外。
But a tortured description of this transaction and why it's off balance sheet.
所以我上周的总结里，把那四段全引用了。
So in my wrap for last week, I quoted the entire all four paragraphs.
我花了大概三四分钟才把整段读完，然后我对观众说：“让我用大白话给你们翻译一下，告诉你们这里到底发生了什么。”
It took me about three or four minutes to read the whole thing, and then I said to my viewers, "Let me translate this into plain English to tell you what's really going on here."
审计师真正想说的是：“我们真的不确定这个东西应不应该放在表外。
What the auditor is really saying is, "We really don't know if this thing should be off balance sheet or not.
我们可能觉得不应该，但Meta告诉我们没问题。
We probably think it shouldn't, but Meta told us that it's okay.
我们其实挺担心的，但Meta说：‘别紧张，哥们。’
We're really nervous about it, but Meta said, 'Chill, bro.'
所以我们就说：‘好吧。’
And so we said, 'Okay.'
我们就放松了。”
We chilled."
这基本上就是10-K报告里说的内容。
And that's basically what the 10-K said.
这就是安然公司当年发生的事。
That's what happened in Enron.
这就是华尔街为了把大量资产移出资产负债表而设立的那些结构性投资工具（SIV）所发生的情况。
That's what happened in the SIVs that Wall Street created to get a lot of stuff off balance sheet.
就像我说的，这种把戏我以前见过。
Like I said, I've seen this drill before.
估计最后不会有好结果。
Presumably, it doesn't end well.
看起来，每当市场出问题的时候，问题就在于没有人承担责任——不管是公司不为自己的那些小动作负责，还是审计师和评级机构，他们的职责本来是准确评估这些公司承担的风险水平。
It seems that the problem, whenever something goes wrong, whenever there is a problem in the market, it's because there is a lack of accountability on anyone's part, whether it's the companies not taking accountability for their own, as you call it, shenanigans, or the auditors and the ratings agencies whose responsibility is to accurately assess what level of risk these companies are taking on.
如果你认为审计师是在说：“我们其实不太清楚。
And if it's your view that the auditors are saying, "We don't really know.
他们告诉我们没问题，那就没问题吧。”那我想问的是，这个问题有多严重？
They told us it's fine, so it's fine," I guess the question is, how large of an issue is that?
我不知道现在有多少资产在资产负债表之外。
I don't know how much is off balance sheet at this point.
这是我对这件事唯一的保留意见。
That's my only caveat to it.
也就是说，你还没法确定——
Meaning you're not ready to determine-
我还不清楚具体规模有多大。
I don't know the size of it yet.
我在想，这5000亿美元里，有多少是表外的，有多少是表内的。
I'm trying to figure out, of the $500 billion, how much of it is off balance sheet and how much of it is on balance sheet.
我现在还不知道。
I don't know yet.
那这个数字的大小，会对你的分析产生什么影响？
And depending on how large that number is, what will that mean for your analysis?
我觉得这意味着这些公司非常非常担心自己的信用评级，他们想尽一切办法来保住评级。
I think what it would mean is that these companies are very, very nervous about their credit ratings, and they're trying to do everything they can to preserve them.
如果这意味着要设立那些本不该表外的表外工具，而且还能让审计师同意这么做，那他们就会这么做。
And if that means creating off-balance sheet vehicles that really shouldn't be off balance sheet, but they get their auditors to agree that it's off balance sheet, so be it.
这就是我的看法。
That's what I think it means.
广告之后我们马上回来。
We'll be right back after the break.
我们有个好消息要告诉大家。
And we have some exciting news.
我们入围了三个信号奖，请到 vote.signalaward.com 给我们投票。
We have been nominated for three Signal Awards, so please go vote for us at vote.signalaward.com.
在搜索栏输入 Prof G Markets，就可以投票了。
Type in Prof G Markets in the search bar, and there you can vote.
我们入围了最佳金融播客、最佳每日播客，还有最佳视频播客。
We've been nominated for Best Money in Finance Podcast, also Best Daily Podcast, and also Best Video Podcast.
请为这三个都投上一票。
Please vote for all of them.
非常感谢大家。
We really appreciate it.
我们也会在简介里放个链接，方便你们投票。
We'll also leave a link in the description to make it easy for you.
大家好，我是卡拉·斯威舍。
Hi, everyone, I'm Kara Swisher.
我是斯科特·加洛韦。
And I'm Scott Galloway.
我们每周两次在《Pivot》节目中聚在一起，梳理科技、商业和政治领域最重要的新闻。而且我们将在11月把节目带到现场，进行巡回演出。
Twice a week, we get together on "Pivot" to sort through the biggest stories in tech, business, and politics, and we're taking the show back on the road for a live tour in November.
所以我们会带来热门观点，我会带来见解和荤段子，而卡拉会尝试——关键词是尝试——
So we'll bring hot takes, I'll bring the insight and the dick jokes, and Kara will try, keyword is try-
尝试
Try
……让我保持规矩。
... to keep me in check.
你们将有机会在现场亲眼看到她打我。
You'll get to see her hit me in person live.
我会这么做的。
I'll do it.
如果非得有人来做的话。
If someone has to do it.
我们会聊AI，还有华盛顿那周搞出的各种乱子，以及每一个不守规矩的亿万富翁。
We'll cover AI, whatever chaos Washington's cooked up that week, and every billionaire misbehaving.
那不就是全部人嘛。
That's all of them.
而且你们还能参与观众问答环节，所以带上你们最棒的问题吧。
And you'll also get to participate in an audience Q&A, so bring your best questions.
斯科特可能会回答你没问的那些问题。
Scott will probably answer ones you didn't ask.
我们每个城市还有秘密特邀嘉宾，你们会喜欢的。
We also have secret special guests which you'll enjoy for every city.
去pivottour.com买票。
Get tickets at pivottour.com.
就是pivottour.com。
That's pivottour.com.
我们的票快卖完了，所以别等了，期待见到你们。
We are selling out, so don't wait, and we look forward to seeing you.
本期节目由Hims赞助播出。
Support for the show comes from Hims.
独自减肥就像一场你永远赢不了的战斗。
Losing weight on your own can feel like a fight you're never going to win.
幸运的是，Hims的减肥服务提供FDA批准的Wegovy药片和Wegovy注射笔。
Luckily, weight loss by Hims offers access to the FDA-approved Wegovy pill and Wegovy pen.
Wegovy是首个以药片形式提供的GLP-1减肥药，也有注射笔形式，所以你有多种选择。
Wegovy is the first ever GLP-1 weight loss medication available in a pill, and it also comes as a pen, so you've got options.
使用Wegovy，你可以减掉多达20%的体重。
With Wegovy, you can lose up to 20% of your body weight.
在一项Wegovy的临床试验中，配合饮食和运动，参与者在64周内平均减重14%。
People lost an average of 14% body weight at 64 weeks in a clinical trial of Wegovy, alongside diet and exercise.
要开始使用Wegovy，只需访问hims.com，完成在线咨询，由持牌医生判断是否适合开具处方。
To get started with Wegovy, just go to hims.com and complete an online consultation with a licensed provider who will determine if a prescription is appropriate.
Hims 不仅仅是开处方药。
Hims is more than just a prescription.
营养和生活方式指导也是计划的一部分，你还可以随时与你的核心团队沟通，所以总有人支持你。
Nutrition and lifestyle guidance are part of the plan, along with access to 24 by 7 messaging with your core team, so you've always got someone in your corner.
准备好实现你的目标了吗？
Ready to reach your goals?
访问 hims.com/markets，获取个性化、负担得起的护理，涵盖减肥、脱发、性健康、睾酮等更多领域。
Visit hims.com/markets to get personalized, affordable care for weight loss, hair loss, sex, testosterone, and more.
网址是 H-I-M-S.com/markets，也就是 hims.com/markets。
That's H-I-M-S.com/markets, hims.com/markets.
个人效果可能有所不同，停止治疗可能会导致体重反弹。
Individual results may vary, and stopping treatment may result in weight regain.
本节目由 VCX 赞助，VCX 是私人科技领域的公开股票代码。
Support for the show comes from VCX, the public ticker for private tech.
几代以来，美国公司凭借他们的聪明才智和决心推动世界前进。
For generations, American companies have moved the world forward through their ingenuity and determination.
而且一直以来，普通美国人都能通过也许是最伟大的创新——美国股市，参与到这段旅程中。
And for generations, everyday Americans could be a part of that journey through perhaps the greatest innovation of all, the US stock market.
不管你是底特律的工厂工人，还是奥马哈的农民，任何人都能拥有伟大美国公司的一部分。
It didn't matter whether you were a factory worker in Detroit or a farmer in Omaha, anyone could own a piece of the great American companies.
但现在，情况变了。
But now that's changed.
如今，我们最具创新力的公司选择保持私有，而不是上市。
Today, our most innovative companies are staying private rather than going public.
结果就是，普通美国人被排除在投资之外，越来越落后，而少数人却独享所有好处。
The result is that everyday Americans are excluded from investing and getting left further behind while a select few reap all the benefits.
直到现在。
Until now.
隆重推出VCX，私人科技公司的公开股票代码，现在在任何买股票的地方都能买到。
Introducing VCX, the public ticker for private tech, now available wherever you buy stocks.
Fundrise旗下的VCX让每个人都有机会投资下一代创新，包括引领AI革命、太空探索、国防科技等领域的公司。
VCX by Fundrise gives everyone the opportunity to invest in the next generation of innovation, including the companies leading the AI revolution, space exploration, defense tech, and more.
想了解更多信息，请访问 getvcx.com。
Visit getvcx.com for more info.
网址是 getvcx.com。
That's getvcx.com.
投资前请仔细阅读投资材料，包括投资目标、风险、费用和支出。
Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses.
这些信息以及其他信息可以在基金的招募说明书中找到，网址是 getvcx.com。
This and other information can be found in the fund's prospectus at getvcx.com.
这是一条付费赞助。
This is a paid sponsorship.
欢迎回到 Prof G Markets。
We're back with Prof G Markets.
现在，股票的故事越来越像是债券的故事，或者说，是收益率和利率的故事。
Increasingly, the story of stocks seems to really be actually a story of bonds or a story of yields and rates.
你写道，10年期国债收益率达到5%是市场的“卢比孔河”。
You wrote that the 5% on the 10-year is the, quote, "Rubicon for the market."
有可能。
Could be.
我们把话说清楚。
Let's be clear.
没有人能在事情发生之前就知道结果。
Nobody ever knows until after the fact.
对。
Yes.
你之前说过，引用一下，“除非有什么事情把利率推回5%以下，否则市场调整似乎不可避免。”
You said, quote, "Unless something happens that pushes rates back below 5%, a market correction seems imminent."
你能解释一下你这话是什么意思吗？
Could you explain what you mean by that?
为什么这些高收益率会导致市场调整呢？
Why is it that these high yields could result in a market correction?
十年期国债收益率超过5%对大家意味着什么？
What does a 10-year at 5% plus mean for everybody?
所以很明显，这会打击房地产市场，因为以前你拿的是6%的房贷，现在变成7.5%了。
So obviously, it hurts housing, because you were taking out a 6% mortgage before, now it's 7.5%.
你不会那么快就去申请房贷了。
You're not taking out a mortgage so fast.
你也不会去买房子了。
You're not going to buy a house.
所以这会影响整个房地产行业。
So that hurts the entire housing sector.
其实房地产行业本来就不太好，但这就像是压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草。
Now, the housing sector hasn't been doing too great anyway, but it's like one more nail in the coffin.
然后任何要发债的公司，融资成本都更高了。
Then any corporation that's going to raise debt, it's more expensive.
还有所有这些数据中心债务，CoreWeave六个月前发债时利率是9%。
And all this data center debt, CoreWeave raised debt six months ago at 9%.
今天的话，可能就得11%了。
Today, it'd probably be 11.
所以东西就变得更贵了。
So things get more expensive.
就是越来越贵。
They just get more expensive.
当利率开始上升，经济就会变得脆弱。
The economy gets creaky When rates start to go higher.
所以我觉得这就是让大家紧张的原因，因为它让赤字更大，也让AI的债务更贵。
So I think that's what's making everybody nervous because it makes the deficit bigger, and it makes AI debt more expensive.
所有东西都变得更贵。
It makes everything more expensive.
你觉得AI债务问题是不是高收益率影响经济中最大的问题？
Do you see the AI debt problem as the largest problem in terms of how higher yields could affect the economy?
因为正如你指出的，AI数据中心的建设越来越依赖发债。
Because as you point out, increasingly, this AI data center build-out is becoming dependent on debt issuance.
我想这些公司有很多钱，但像CoreWeave这样的公司，比大型科技公司和真正的超大规模云服务商，钱要少得多。
And I guess these companies have a lot of money, but there are companies like CoreWeave which have a lot less money than the big tech companies and the hyperscalers, the true hyperscalers.
所以你得假设，如果他们为了建数据中心而发行债务，利息越付越多，到某个时候，这可能就撑不下去了。
And so you'd have to assume that if they're paying more and more on interest for the debt that they're issuing to build the data centers, at some point, that might not be sustainable anymore.
对，我同意。
No, I agree.
我是说，你可以这么想。
I mean, think of it this way.
假设有一家公司，拥有一个大语言模型或者一个智能体AI模型。
Let's imagine a company that has an LLM model or an agentic AI model.
他们投入了大量资金，但期望的回报是投入的好几倍。
They've invested a ton of money in it, but they're expecting a return of multiples of what they invested.
不然，为什么要做呢？
Otherwise, why do it?
如果你是CoreWeave，在建数据中心，你能向使用这个数据中心的人收取的费用是有限的。
When you're CoreWeave and you're building a data center, there's only so much you can charge to whoever is going to employ the data center.
总得有个回报。
There's a return.
这其实就是房地产。
This is real estate.
这就是一笔房地产交易。
This is a real estate transaction.
所以如果利率高出100个基点，那只会让交易更难做。
So if rates are 100 basis points higher, it just makes the transaction more difficult.
你就得向客户收更多的钱。
You're going to have to charge your customer more.
客户愿意付吗？
Is the customer going to want to pay?
我不知道，但确实让事情变得更难了。
I don't know, but it just makes it more difficult.
还有一些其他数据中心的消息，我们觉得挺有意思的。
There was some other data center news that was quite interesting to us.
其中一个就是，甲骨文给蓝猫头鹰发了一份不可抗力通知，蓝猫头鹰正在新墨西哥州帮他们建数据中心园区。
One of them was the fact that Oracle sent this force majeure notice to Blue Owl that was building their data center campus in New Mexico.
我记得那个数据中心叫“木星计划”。
Project Jupiter, I believe, was the name of the data center.
对，木星。
Yeah, Jupiter.
你对这个消息怎么看？
What did you make of that news?
基本上，它的意思是，如果出了什么事，他们不承担责任，我是这么理解的。
Essentially, what it meant is that they're saying that if something bad happens, we're not liable, is my understanding.
你对这个消息怎么看？
What did you make of that news?
我觉得甲骨文非常担心自己的信用评级。
I think Oracle is petrified of their credit rating.
现在甲骨文的信用评级是BBB-。
Right now, Oracle's credit rating is BBB minus.
BBB-只比垃圾级高一级。
BBB minus is one level above junk.
展开剩余字幕（还有 341 条）
甲骨文不想被降级为垃圾级。
Oracle does not want to get downgraded to junk.
他们确实不想，而且他们会竭尽全力保护自己的信用评级。
They do not, and they're going to try and do everything they can to protect their credit rating.
我觉得这就是那件事背后的原因。
I think that's what that was about.
你觉得甲骨文是不是目前在AI交易中资产负债表最弱的公司？
Is that company, would you say Oracle, has sort of the weakest balance sheet in the AI trade right now?
我不确定它是不是最弱的。
I don't know if it's the weakest.
在大型公司里，它是最弱的。
Amongst the larger companies, it's the weakest.
如果拿它跟CoreWeave或者其他公司比，我不一定会说它比那些公司更弱。
If I were to compare it to CoreWeave or somebody else, I don't know if I would say it's weaker than those companies.
但就像我说的，当你的评级是BBB减的时候，情况可能会变得很难看。
But like I said, when you're rated BBB minus, things can get ugly.
你觉得这些大型科技公司离那些水平有多近？
How close to those levels do you think some of these larger tech companies are?
因为据我了解，它们财务状况相当不错，除非表外业务比我们想象的要大得多。
Because my understanding is they're pretty well off, unless this off-balance-sheet stuff is a lot larger than we think.
据我了解，如果是Meta、Google或微软，那就没问题。
My understanding is if you're Meta, Google, Microsoft, you're okay.
我认为目前它们确实没问题。
I think at this point they are.
那些公司我倒是没怎么操心。
I don't lose sleep over those companies.
我现在比较担心的是甲骨文、CoreWeave，还有其他的几家公司。
I worry about Oracle, CoreWeave, and all the other companies at this point.
不过就像我刚才说的，万一 Anthropic 或者 OpenAI 出了什么岔子，大家可就无处可躲了，因为它们对整个 AI 生态来说太重要了。
But like I said, if something bad ever happened to Anthropic or OpenAI, there'll be no place to hide because they're just too important to the entire AI ecosystem.
先撇开 AI 不谈，说说宏观层面吧，之前通胀率是 3.4%。
Just in terms of macro, getting away from the AI stuff, we had inflation was last at 3.4%.
我们经历了第一次加息。
We had our first rate hike.
你对那次加息有什么看法？
What were your takeaways from that rate hike?
而且看起来我们可能还会迎来一次加息。
And it seems that we're probably going to get another one.
这让你有什么想法？
What does it have you thinking about?
你对此感到意外吗？
Were you surprised by it at all?
你的反应是什么？
What are your reactions?
有一段时间，通胀数据其实有所好转，但油价上涨了，所以我觉得美联储基本上是在买保险。
For a time, the inflation numbers were actually getting a little bit better, but oil prices are higher, so I think the Fed was basically taking out some insurance.
他们可能还会再买一些保险。
They may take out some more insurance.
我更担心的是十年期国债的情况。
I'm much more concerned by what's happening with the 10-year.
我觉得十年期国债收益率这么高，除了油价上涨和人们紧张之外，还有一个原因是今年AI领域发行了五千亿美元的债券，对国债市场产生了挤出效应。
And I think part of the reason why the 10-year is so high, other than that the oil prices are up and people are nervous, is that AI is a $500 billion issuance this year, and it's having a crowding-out effect of the Treasury markets.
如果没有AI，完全没有的话，十年期国债收益率会低很多。
If there was no AI, none, the 10-year would be much lower.
你能给我们详细解释一下为什么会这样吗？
Could you spell out why that would be the case for us?
如果你是微软、Meta、谷歌——嗯，不是Meta，是谷歌——你在建数据中心，那是个长期项目。
If you're Microsoft or Meta, Google, well, not Meta, but Google, and you're building a data center, that's a long-term project.
你不是借隔夜债，而是借长期债。
You're not raising overnight debt, you're raising long-term debt.
你借的是十年期债务之类的。
You're raising 10-year debt, something like that.
所以今年美国财政部的赤字有六万亿美元。
So the Treasury has a $6 trillion deficit this year.
现在再加上5000亿的AI债务，就有点竞争了，这是以前没有的。
Now, add on top of that $500 billion in AI debt, and there's a bit of a competition, which didn't exist before.
所以我觉得10年期收益率这么高的原因之一，就像我说的，存在挤出效应，AI债务把国债挤出去了，这说法挺疯狂的，因为以前从来没人能把国债挤出去，但现在他们做到了。
So I think one of the reasons why the 10-year is as high as it is because, like I said, there's a crowding-out effect where AI debt is crowding out Treasury, which is a crazy statement because nobody ever crowded out Treasury before, but now they are.
这就是为什么斯科特·贝森特想玩个花招，通过所谓的“扭曲操作”买60亿美元的长期国债，就是发行短期债务来买长期国债，结果彻底失败了。
And that's why Scott Bessent tried to pull a rabbit out of the hat by trying to buy $6 billion worth of long-term Treasuries in something called Operation Twist, where he would issue short-term debt to buy long-term Treasuries, and it's failed miserably.
所以财政部失去了很多信誉，因为他刚开始的时候，10年期收益率我记得是4.75，现在都到5.21了。
So the Treasury Department has lost a lot of credibility because when he started, I think the 10-year was at 4.75, and now it's at 5.21.
你怎么看他对那个回购计划的评论？
What do you make of his comments about that buyback program?
因为他的观点是收益率错了，市场错误地暗示了美国经济的可持续性有问题，而他想把它纠正回真相。
Because his view was that yields were wrong, that the markets were incorrectly saying something about the sustainability of the US economy that wasn't true, and he was trying to correct it back to the truth.
你同意他吗？
Do you agree with him?
你怎么看他的评论？
What do you make of his comments?
我觉得这个说法挺奇怪的。
I think it's a weird argument.
我是说，国债市场是相当高效的。
I mean, the treasury markets are pretty efficient.
它们不仅仅是相当高效。
They're more than pretty efficient.
它们是非常高效的。
They're really efficient.
所以说它们错了，那它们到底错在哪里呢？
So to say that they're wrong, what are they wrong about?
我是说，现在有战争在进行。
I mean, there's a war going on.
油价也更高了。
The oil prices are higher.
柴油价格创了历史新高。
Diesel fuel is at an all-time high.
我不太明白他在说什么，因为他到底在讲什么？
I mean, I don't know what he's talking about, because what is he saying?
是说通胀要降下来了？
That inflation's about to come down?
如果通胀要降下来，那到时候国债收益率也会跟着降下来。
Well, if inflation's about to come down, then treasury yields will come back down when that happens.
我真的搞不懂这个论点，真的搞不懂。
I mean, I don't get the argument, I really don't.
就这个AI泡沫的故事来说，到现在已经存在很长时间了。
Just in terms of this AI bubble story, which has been around for a very long time at this point.
我们别太激动了。
Let's not get carried away.
这个故事已经存在六个月了，在我们这个圈子里感觉像过了一个世纪。
It's been around for six months, which in our world feels like an eternity.
但在人类历史的长河里，这其实很短。
But in the scheme of human history, it's pretty short.
我觉得不止六个月。
I would put it to beyond six months.
我觉得大概一年前，人们就开始……
I would say maybe a year ago was when people started to-
好吧。
All right.
那就是一年。
So it's a year.
但就像我说的，历史很长。
But like I said, history is long.
对。
Yes.
一年的故事，就像我说的，因为你和我每天都泡在市场里，一年的故事感觉就像永恒。
A one-year story, like I said, because you and I are immersed in the markets every single day, a one-year story feels like an eternity.
但显然它不是永恒。
But clearly it's not an eternity.
但我确实觉得，对于很多对市场感兴趣的人来说，我们现在整天泡在社交媒体上，听播客，看CNBC，我想很多听众也会觉得这段时间挺长的。
But I do think that for a lot of people who are interested in the markets, I mean, now that we're on social media all the time, we're listening to podcasts, we're watching CNBC, I would imagine that for a lot of listeners, it feels like it's been a long time to them as well.
从泡沫周期的角度来看，这只是一瞬间的事。
In bubble cycle terms, it is a blip.
我的问题是，尽管有这些风险，你对市场的韧性感到惊讶吗？
My question is, have you been surprised at all by the resiliency of this market despite these risks?
需要说明的是，我们指出的那些风险都没有错。
And to be clear, none of the risks that we have been pointing out have been wrong.
我们只是在陈述可能导致回调的事实。
We've simply been stating facts that could lead to a correction.
但我们并没有真正看到这种情况发生。
But we haven't really seen that.
我很想听听你的看法，市场的这种韧性有没有让你感到意外，还是说这本来就是意料之中的事？
And I'd be interested to get your views on whether this has surprised you, how resilient the market has been, or if this is par for the course.
哦，我一点都不惊讶。
Oh, it hasn't surprised me at all.
我觉得自从互联网泡沫破裂以来，大家学到的教训是，十次里有九次，新新事物最终都会成功。
I mean, the lesson I think that people have taken since the dot-com crash is that 9 times out of 10, the new, new thing becomes usually successful.
不管是亚马逊、谷歌、Meta，还是其他什么公司。
Whether that's Amazon or it's Google or it's Meta or you name it.
不管是什么，十次里有九次，它都是赢家。
Whatever it is, 9 times out of 10, it's a winner.
而这就是那个新新事物，所以每个人都在翻出老剧本，说："这就是2001年的亚马逊"，或者随便挑一只股票，然后开始玩吧。
And this is the new, new thing, and so everybody's just taking out the playbook and saying, "This is Amazon Circuit 2001," or pick your stock, and let's play ball.
顺便说一句，我也玩过。
And by the way, I've played ball, too.
我也投资过这些公司。
I've invested in these companies.
我也承担了一些风险。
I've taken some risk down.
但让我对这个故事感到紧张的是，市场极度集中。
But my nervousness about the story is the incredible concentration.
也许一两年后，情况就不再是这样了。
Now, maybe a year or two years from now, that will no longer be true.
到时候会更加多元化，一切都会好起来的。
It'll be much more diversified, and it'll all be fine.
但也可能不会。
And then again, maybe not.
不过我觉得现在没人能确定。
But I don't think anybody knows at this point.
过去一年左右，你是怎么降低风险的？
How have you reduced your risk in the past year or so?
你采取了哪些措施来保护自己？
What steps are you taking to protect yourself?
嗯，就在过去一个月里，我把我持有的四只AI类股票，部分做了卖空对冲。
Well, in the past month, I took four of my AI-type stuff, and I just shorted part of it against the box.
你会推荐这种对冲策略吗？
Would you recommend that as a hedging strategy?
我不建议任何人这么做。
I am not recommending that to anyone.
我跟我的观众说的是，这是一种你可以选择的做法，但如果你做了，就必须在1月底之前解除，否则国税局会把它视为一次卖出。
What I did say to my viewers was that this is an option that you can do, but that if you do it, you have to unwind it by the end of January, because otherwise the IRS will treat it as a sale.
你对目前标普500的整体估值怎么看？
What do you make of valuations overall at this point across the S&P?
因为希勒市盈率在41左右，是有史以来第二高的读数。
Because the Shiller cape is around 41, second highest reading ever.
唯一比这更高的时候是1999年底。
The only time it was higher was in late '99.
我的意思是，从某些估值指标来看，现在的市场确实显得相当昂贵。
I mean, the market on certain valuation metrics does seem quite expensive right now.
但与此同时，盈利也在暴涨。
But at the same time, earnings are exploding.
人工智能似乎确实在显著发展，而且有可能像特朗普说的那样，成为一只会下金蛋的鹅。
AI does seem to be advancing quite significantly, and there is a possibility that it could be, as Trump says, the golden goose.
你觉得目前整个市场的估值怎么样？
What do you make of valuations across the market at this point?
我不关心这个。
I don't.
这不是我关注的重点。
That's not my bugaboo.
我觉得叙事对估值的影响要大得多。
I think that narrative is a far more powerful force in valuation.
所以如果AI的叙事继续下去，股市就会上涨。
So if the AI narrative continues, the stock market'll go up.
而如果AI的叙事破裂，股市就会大幅回调。
And if the AI narrative breaks, the stock market will have a huge correction.
到时候估值高低根本不重要。
And it wouldn't matter what the valuations are.
不管高还是低，都会被砸得很惨。
High or low, it would get crushed.
所以我觉得，更重要的是去搞清楚基本面到底怎么样，以及这个叙事会不会变，而不是高高在上地坐在那儿说：“我觉得市场太贵了，所以我不投资。”
So I think it's much more important to try and figure out what's going on fundamentally and is the narrative going to change than to sort of sit there on your high horse and say, "I think the market's too expensive, so I'm not going to invest."
你个人是怎么去观察和分析这个叙事的？
What are some of the ways that you personally check in on and analyze the narrative?
你主要关注哪些方面？
What kinds of things are you focused on?
我在试图搞清楚开源权重模型从那些更贵的模型那里抢走了多少份额。
I'm trying to figure out what share open weight models are taking from the more expensive models.
这是很重要的一点。
That's one big thing.
然后我特别想看到Anthropic的S-1文件，好弄清楚到底是怎么回事。
And then I'm dying to see the S-1 of Anthropic so I can figure out what the hell's going on.
我们马上回来。想获取更多市场内容，请访问profgmarkets.com订阅我们的通讯。
We'll be right back, and for even more markets content, sign up for our newsletter at profgmarkets.com.
就像任何一个典型的千禧一代一样，我对Z世代又爱又恨。
So like any good millennial, I have a love-hate relationship with Gen Z.
这是让千禧一代感到不安的现象。
It's the phenomenon rattling millennials.
他们只是看着你。
They just look at you.
他们自己想要更大的东西。
They want something bigger themselves.
生活方式是优先考虑的事情。
Lifestyle is a priority.
动力来自于被激励。
Motivation is being inspired.
但不管你对Z世代怎么看，不可否认的是，他们正在改变国家政治。
But regardless of how you feel about Gen Z, it's undeniable that they're changing national politics.
Z世代对传统政党的忠诚度越来越低。
Generation Z is increasingly showing less loyalty to traditional political parties.
现在很多人更可能把自己视为独立选民。
Many now more likely to identify as independent.
那这些年轻人到底是怎么回事？
So what is going on with the kids?
我觉得现在对Z世代政治立场最大的误解，就是突然觉得他们都是社会主义者。
I think the biggest misconception about Gen Z's politics right now is that all of a sudden, they're all socialists.
但事实根本不是这样。
That is just not the case.
他们之所以支持那些提出大胆新想法的候选人，是因为建制派民主党人没有提出这些想法。
They are embracing candidates who are offering new, bold ideas in the absence of those ideas from establishment Democrats.
本周的《真实的美国》节目，我们请来了Z世代研究员Rachel Gianfaza，来帮我们分辨关于Z世代的真真假假。
This week on "America Actually," Gen Z researcher Rachel Gianfaza joins us to separate Gen Z fact versus fiction.
这并不复杂，我一直说年轻选民其实没那么难懂。
It's not rocket science, and I keep saying young voters aren't that complicated after all.
很简单。
It's pretty simple.
每周六在YouTube或你收听播客的任何平台，都能看到我们。
Catch us every Saturday on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.
人工智能恐慌无处不在。
AI panic is everywhere.
我们不希望这个县里建数据中心。
We do not want a data center in this county.
人工智能模型在入侵和退出计算机系统方面的能力正在变得超乎人类。
AI models are becoming superhuman in their ability to break in and out of computer systems.
那些时钟摄像头，兄弟。
the clock cameras, bro.
我讨厌那些东西。
I hate those things.
但这种恐慌到底从何而来？
But where is that panic really coming from?
根据《纽约时报》和锡耶纳的民调，在今年的中期选举中，只有不到1%的选民将人工智能或数据中心列为首要关注事项。
According to a poll from "The New York Times" and Siena, less than 1% of voters listed artificial intelligence or data centers as their top priority in this year's midterms.
我是个老派的人。
I'm an old school person.
我不在乎AI。
I don't care about AI.
你是说这对你来说没什么影响。
You're saying that doesn't register for you.
对。
No.
有时候我在想，所谓的“真正的美国”里，人们真的在乎AI吗？
And sometimes I wonder, do they care about AI in so-called real America?
我所在选区的选民们说：“我们认为风险大于收益。”
What people in my district are saying is, "We think the risks outweigh the benefits."
本周的《真实的美国》节目，我采访了密歇根州国会候选人威尔·劳伦斯，聊聊他为什么把整个竞选都押在对抗AI革命上。
This week on "America Actually," I'm talking to Michigan congressional candidate Will Lawrence on why he shaped his entire campaign around confronting the AI revolution.
说到底，我觉得这关乎控制权。
Really, it's about control, I think, above all.
谁来做决定？
Who decides?
因为人们觉得他们在这整个事情上根本没有发言权。
Because people feel like they just are not really given any say so in the whole matter.
每周六在YouTube或其他播客平台收听我们。
Catch us every Saturday on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.
美国的外交政策是否已成为私人利益和反民主意识形态的工具？
Has American foreign policy become a tool for private gain and anti-democratic ideology?
他们寻求联盟和关系，并不是基于建立广泛和平与繁荣的理念。
They look for alliances and relationships not based on the idea that they're building a broad realm of peace and prosperity.
相反，他们寻找对自己有利的交易和关系。
Rather, they're looking for deals and relationships that are good for them.
我是乔恩·法伊纳。
I'm Jon Finer.
我是杰克·沙利文，我们是《长期博弈》的主持人，这是一档每周更新的国家安全播客。
And I'm Jake Sullivan, and we're the hosts of "The Long Game," a weekly national security podcast.
本周，记者安妮·阿普尔鲍姆加入我们，讨论她的报道，关于私人财富和极右意识形态如何重塑美国外交政策。
This week, journalist Anne Applebaum joins us to discuss her reporting on how private wealth and far-right ideology are reshaping American foreign policy.
这一集已经上线了。
The episode is out now.
无论你在哪里收听播客，都可以搜索并关注《The Long Game》。
Search for and follow "The Long Game" wherever you get your podcasts.
我们回到了Prof G Markets节目。
We're back with Prof G Markets.
现在我们进入第四季度，你对接下来可能发生的情况有什么预测吗？
As we enter the fourth quarter here, do you have any predictions for what we might see?
另外，你对2026年有什么回顾或反思？
And also, what are your reflections on 2026?
回顾过去三个季度，你最大的收获是什么？
Looking back over the past three quarters, what have been your biggest takeaways?
我最大的收获是，尽管市场面临各种挑战，但它表现出了惊人的韧性。
My biggest takeaway is that the market's been unbelievably resilient despite everything that's been thrown at it.
现在有战争。
There's a war.
通胀还在加剧。
There's more inflation.
但美国的经济增长依然相当强劲。
But US growth is still quite strong.
所以市场一直非常抗压。
So the market's been very resilient.
这确实值得重视。
It really needs to be respected.
第四季度会发生什么？
What will happen in the fourth quarter?
我完全不知道。
I have no idea.
现在这个时期很特别，因为唯一重要的两个变量就是油价和利率。
Right now, it's a very weird time in that the only two variables that matter are oil prices and interest rates.
所以，AI的故事线很重要，但眼下它没那么重要。
So, the AI narrative is very important, but right now it's not as important.
更重要的是油价和利率。
What's much more important is oil prices and interest rates.
如果战争真的能结束，我觉得我们会回到某种更正常的叙事中。
If the war were to ever end, I think we would get back to some sort of more normal narrative.
投资者有没有什么可以做的，或者我们能针对油价和利率采取什么行动吗？
Is there anything that investors can do, or is there anything that we can act on as it relates to oil prices and interest rates?
这真的很有意思，因为投资者的工作是看股票和收益，然后突然每个人都被要求成为地缘政治分析师，因为正如你所说，这真的很重要。
It's one of those things that it's so funny because the job of the investor is to look at stocks and look at earnings, and then suddenly everyone's asked to be a geopolitical analyst because, as you point out, it really matters.
但我们不是地缘政治分析师，所以我觉得现在投资者面临一个问题，那就是，面对这一切，你到底应该怎么做？
But we're not geopolitical analysts, so I feel like there's a question for investors right now, which is, what are you even supposed to do about any of this?
我觉得你应该什么都不做。
I think you're supposed to do nothing.
因为，如果你冒险去做一些在油价大幅上涨时表现好的事情，比如说。
Because, if you went out on a limb and did something that would do well if oil prices went up a lot, let's just say.
战争可能明天就结束，那你就惨了，反过来也一样。
The war could end tomorrow, so you'd be screwed, and vice versa.
所以我觉得根本没人能预测得了这个。
So I don't think anybody can predict this at all.
所以最好就是稳住别动，如果你想降低点风险，那就降低点，但除此之外，我不会做任何操作。
So better to just hang tight and, if you want to reduce some risk, reduce some risk, but otherwise, I wouldn't do anything.
那你现在的策略是什么样的？
So what does your strategy look like these days?
我知道你做空了一家公司。
I know that you are short one company.
我挺想多听听这个的。
I'd be interested to hear more about that.
我在CNBC上听到的。
I heard that on CNBC.
对。
Yes.
嗯，今天发生了一些事。
Well, something happened today.
跟我们说说你现在是怎么投资的吧。
Tell us a little bit about how you're investing right now.
说实话，我手里有一些空头头寸。
Look, I have some shorts.
但大部分仓位还是做多的。
I'm mostly long.
我降低了一些风险，因为跟其他人一样，我对整个AI的叙事有点紧张。
I took down some risk because I think, like everybody else, I'm kind of nervous about the whole AI narrative.
但我不愿意下大赌注说整个AI的故事会崩盘。
But I am not willing to make some major call that the whole AI story's going to implode.
我真的不想这么做。
I'm just not willing to do that.
它可能会崩，但我觉得现在下这个结论还为时过早。
It may, but I think making that call is premature.
你能跟我们讲讲你做空FICO的事吗？
Could you tell us about your FICO short?
我在CNBC上听说了这件事。
That's what I heard about on CNBC.
所以FICO，对于不了解的观众来说，是一家这样的公司：比如你想申请房贷，贷款机构基本上会打电话给FICO问：“嘿，这个人的信用评分是多少？”
So FICO, for those of the viewers who don't know, is a company where, let's say you wanted to get a mortgage, the lender basically calls FICO on the phone and says, "Hey, what's this person's credit score?"
而FICO有史蒂夫·艾斯曼的信用评分。
And FICO has a credit score for Steve Eisman.
埃德·埃尔森也有FICO信用评分，基本上每个美国人都有。
Ed Elson has a FICO credit score for basically every single person in the United States of America.
根据你的FICO评分，你可能会获得房贷，也可能不会。
And depending upon what your FICO score is, you'll either get a mortgage or you won't get a mortgage.
这基本上就是房贷系统的运作方式。
And that's basically the mortgage system.
而FICO在这个领域一直垄断着。
And FICO has had a monopoly on this forever.
基本上，从它存在以来就一直如此。
Well, basically as long as it has existed.
而且这家公司变得非常非常贪婪。
And the company got very, very greedy.
以前，他们这项服务收费并不高。
In the past, they didn't charge that much for the service.
但在过去五年里，他们把价格提高了，你猜怎么着，1600%。
And over the past five years, they raised prices, get this, 1,600%.
我再重复一遍。
I'll say that again.
他们把价格提高了1600%。
They raised prices 1,600%.
这百分比可够高的。
That's a lot of percent.
对。
Yep.
而且我觉得他们惹怒了整个抵押贷款生态系统，包括房利美和房地美的监管者比尔·普尔特。
And I think they angered the entire mortgage ecosystem, including Bill Pulte, who's the regulator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
我这些年学到的人生一大教训就是，别去惹你的监管机构，因为那真的太蠢了。
And one of the great lessons in life that I have learned over the years is don't piss off your regulator because it's just really dumb.
所以比尔·普尔特帮忙搞出了一个叫VantageScore的替代评分系统。
And so Bill Pulte has helped create an alternative score called VantageScore.
昨晚他在X上发布了那个公告——我太喜欢这家伙了。
And the announcement last night, which he did on X-- I love this guy.
他总是在X上发布行业重大消息。长话短说，这个公告让VantageScore在评分上比FICO更有优势。
He puts out major announcements about the industry on X. To make a long story short, gives an advantage to VantageScore over FICO in terms of scoring.
所以现在VantageScore的市场份额大概在8%左右，但几个月内可能就能到50%，因为今天早上，美国最大的抵押贷款机构之一Rocket Mortgage宣布，他们以后只用VantageScore了。
So, right now, VantageScore probably has a market share of around 8%, and it's possible within a few months it could have 50% because this morning, Rocket Mortgage, which is probably the largest mortgage originator in the United States, announced that they were just going to use VantageScore from now on.
哇。
Wow.
所以股价跌了，我觉得差不多跌了20%。
So the stock's down, I think almost 20%.
开盘前就已经跌了快20%。
It was down to almost 20% before the market opened.
基本上，做空的逻辑就是，你原来有垄断地位，但现在你不再有垄断了。
Basically, the short thesis is you had a monopoly, and you're not going to have a monopoly.
你是怎么发现像FICO这样的做空机会的？
How do you identify short positions like FICO as an example?
你是怎么发现这个机会的，又是在什么时点决定真正建仓做空的？
How did you discover that, and at what point do you decide to actually take that short position?
这很相关，因为正如你所说，你在这波AI行情上并没有大举做空。
Which is relevant because, as you point out, you're not taking a big short position on this AI trade.
对你来说，就是时机还没到。
To you, it's we're not there yet.
还不值得做空。
It doesn't warrant it.
FICO这个做空的好处在于，它不依赖经济周期。
What's nice about the FICO short is that it's not economically dependent.
它也不依赖AI。
It's not AI dependent.
它活在自己的世界里，跟世界上其他任何事情都完全没关系。
It lives in its own universe that literally has nothing to do with anything else in the whole world.
让我注意到它的原因是，很多很多个月前，Pulte在X上发了一些关于FICO的非常难听的话。
What put me onto it was just, many, many months ago, Pulte got on X and said something really obnoxious about FICO.
我当时对自己说：“我见过这种情况。”
I said to myself, "I've seen this."
极少数情况下，金融服务公司真的惹恼了监管机构，结果从来都不好。
Once in a blue moon, a financial services company really angers their regulator, and the net result is never good.
他打算怎么做，我不知道。
What he's going to do, I don't know.
但后来慢慢就清楚了，他想要一个FICO的替代品，而且他会确保这个替代品出现。
But then over time, it became clear that he wanted an alternative to FICO, and he was going to make sure there was one.
你总体上是做多的。
You are generally long.
用“做多”来形容你的仓位，应该比较准确。
This market would be the right way to describe your position.
只是没那么重仓。
Just not as long.
你觉得现在这是一种流行的策略吗？
Do you think that that is a popular strategy at this point?
我完全不知道。
I have absolutely no idea.
我只知道我睡得挺好。
I just know I sleep fine.
现在，睡得好在你的投资策略里占多大分量？
To what extent does sleeping fine play a role in your investment strategy at this point?
哦，那太重要了。
Oh, it's huge.
绝对非常重要。
It's absolutely huge.
我睡不好的时候，就会开始发疯。
When I don't sleep, I start to go crazy.
所以我得做点什么。
And so I need to do something.
你需要睡觉。
You need to sleep.
你需要对自己的持仓感到安心。
You need to be comfortable with your positions.
你不能整天走来走去，慌慌张张的。
You can't walk around all day in a panic.
我觉得这对每个人都适用。
I think that's true for everybody.
如果结果是卖掉一些东西，或者降低风险，或者做空一些东西，只是为了让自己更舒服，那你就应该这么做。
And if the result is to sell something or take down some risk or short something just to make yourself feel more comfortable, that's what you should do.
2008年你是怎么睡的？
How did you sleep in 2008?
我一般睡得都挺好的。
I generally sleep fine.
其实问题不在睡觉。
It wasn't the sleep that was my issue.
我真正担心的是，我觉得地球真的要完蛋了。
My issue was I literally thought planet Earth was going to burn.
我发誓，真的。
I swear to God.
那时候有人来我办公室，我跟他们讲会发生什么，他们听完都是哭着走的。
People would come to my office, and I would tell them what was going to happen, and they would leave in tears.
我当时就是被自己觉得事情有多糟给吓坏了。
I was that freaked out by how bad I thought things were.
最让我和我的合伙人们害怕的是，2008年的时候，我们互相都说：“政府肯定知道我们知道的情况，如果他们知道，他们一定会采取行动的。”
And the thing that freaked me out the most and freaked out my partners as well is, in 2008, we all said to each other, "Surely the government knows what we know, and if they know what we know, they're going to do something."
结果我们错了。
And it turned out we were wrong.
政府根本不知道我们知道的情况。
The government did not know what we knew.
他们完全不知道。
They had no idea.
他们完全无知。
They were completely ignorant.
所以事情才会变得那么糟糕。
And that's why it got as bad as it got.
你似乎觉得我们还没到那个时刻，这似乎很重要。
It seems significant that you don't feel that we're at that moment yet.
是的，我不觉得。
No, I don't.
如果我们到了那个时刻，你期望看到什么？
Is there anything that you would expect to see if we were to get to that moment?
就像我说的，你需要关注Anthropic和OpenAI。
Like I said, you need to focus on Anthropic and OpenAI.
如果这两家公司中的任何一家在未来一年内发生什么不好的事情。
If anything bad happens to one of those two companies within the next year.
如果是五年后，业务会变得更加多元化。
If it's five years from now, the business will be much more diversified.
但在接下来的一年里，考虑到集中度，大约70%的AI超大规模收入完全来自Anthropic和OpenAI。
But within the next year, given the concentration levels, again, something like 70% of AI hyperscaler revenue comes purely from Anthropic and OpenAI.
这是令人难以置信的集中风险。
That's incredible concentration risk.
所以如果这两家公司中的一家出了问题，所有人都会受影响。
So if one of these two companies gets into trouble, everybody's in trouble.
你觉得他们会不会发展出某种“大到不能倒”的地位，让政府说他们不能倒闭？
Could you see them developing some sort of too-big-to-fail positioning where the government says they can't fail?
我当然不希望这样。
I certainly hope not.
我真的不想再走这条路了。
I really don't want to go down this road again.
但你觉得有可能吗？
Do you think that it could, though?
我的意思是，如果整个系统都依赖这两家公司不倒闭的话……
I mean, if the whole ... system is dependent on these two companies not going under
整个系统并不依赖这两家公司。
The whole system is not dependent upon these two companies.
不过，我不是说这一定会发生。
However, I'm not saying this is going to happen.
假设明天Anthropic破产了。
Let's just say tomorrow Anthropic went bankrupt.
我觉得美国经济很可能很快就会陷入衰退，或者非常接近衰退。
I think the US economy would probably either be in or very close to a recession very quickly.
但这并不是系统性风险。
That is not, though, systemic risk.
那只是衰退而已。
That's just a recession.
我们会没事的。
We'll be fine.
可能需要一两年才能走出来，但这不是世界末日。
It may take a year or two to get out of it, but it's not the end of the world.
摩根大通倒闭，那才是世界末日。
JPMorgan going down, that's the end of the world.
人们没法从银行取出钱，那才是世界末日。
People not being able to get their money out of the bank, that's the end of the world.
Anthropic或OpenAI倒闭虽然痛苦，但别误会，这不是世界末日。
Anthropic or OpenAI going down is painful, don't get me wrong, but it's not the end of the world.
Anthropic会上市的。
Anthropic will go public.
大家说预期估值大约两万亿美元。
People are saying around $2 trillion is the expectation.
那会使其成为世界上最大、最有价值的公司之一。
It would make it one of the largest, most valuable companies in the world.
你怎么看这个估值？
What do you make of that valuation?
你有兴趣投资吗？
Would you have any interest in investing?
一点兴趣都没有。
Zero.
就像SpaceX一样。
It's like SpaceX.
我对SpaceX也没兴趣，不过我觉得挺有意思的是，SpaceX想做的事情之一是小行星采矿。
I had no interest in SpaceX, although I did find it amusing that one of the things that SpaceX wanted to do was asteroid mining.
我对此非常高兴，因为苹果上有一部很棒的剧叫《为了全人类》，我强烈推荐，里面小行星采矿确实是一个重要主题。
I was very happy about that because there's a wonderful show on Apple called "For All Mankind," which I recommend very heavily, where asteroid mining actually plays a major theme.
所以我想也许埃隆在看这部剧，然后非得把它塞进S-1文件里。
And so I thought maybe Elon was watching the show and just had to shove that into the S-1.
我觉得很可能是这样。
I think that's probably right.
我觉得他就是这么想出来的。
I think that's how he comes up with it.
这故事挺有意思的。
It's a fun story.
你就是在天上飞的一块石头上发现了一大堆金子。
You just find a giant pile of gold on some rock flying across the sky.
你看，他完全是个科幻迷。
Well, look, he's totally into sci-fi.
不知道你知不知道Grok这个词的来历。
I don't know if you know the origin of Grok, the word Grok.
不知道。
I don't.
哦，那我告诉你。
Oh, I'll tell you.
Grok是他SpaceX里面的一个人工智能公司。
So Grok is his AI company within SpaceX.
Grok这个词的起源是在60年代初，罗伯特·海因莱因写了一本小说，他是个很有名的科幻作家，书名叫《异乡异客》。
So the word Grok, the origin of it was in the early '60s, there was a novel written by Robert Heinlein, who was a very famous sci-fi author, called "Stranger in a Strange Land."
《异乡异客》讲的是一个来自火星的年轻人，他是人类，回到地球后有点像救世主一样的人物。
And "Stranger in a Strange Land" was about a young man from Mars, human, who comes back down to Earth and is kind of like a messianic figure.
顺便说一下，我是在七十年代读高中的时候读的这本书。
I read this in the '70s when I was in high school, by the way.
在小说里，Grok基本上就是指一种非常非常非常深刻的理解。
And Grok, in the novel, basically means some very, very, very deep understanding.
这就是这个词的起源。
That's the origin of the word.
这个词是海因莱因自己造出来的，然后埃隆就用了这个词，把他的AI公司命名为Grok。
Heinlein made up the word himself, and Elon took the word and called his AI company after Grok.
我觉得我们得想办法给这些科幻作家一些版税之类的，因为他们好像才是真正的——
I think we're going to need to figure out some sort of commission fee for all these sci-fi authors because they seem to be the real-
他们都去世了。
They're all dead.
所以这样就行得通了。
That's why it works out.
史蒂夫，我们一直都很感谢你抽出时间。
Well, Steve, we always appreciate your time.
最后一个问题，对于正在考虑这一切、准备进入2026年最后一个季度的人，你有什么建议吗？
Just final question, is there any advice that you would give to anyone who's thinking about all of this heading into the final quarter of 2026?
你觉得我们的听众应该关注或留意些什么？
Anything you think that our listeners should be thinking about or paying attention to?
我觉得就是继续关注AI的动向，看看它会往哪个方向发展。
I would just keep paying attention to the AI narrative and see which way it's going to go.
市场的问题在于，除了利率和油价，一旦回到正常市场，基本上就是同一个交易。
The problem with the market, outside of interest rates and oil, whenever we go back to a normal market, is it's basically all one trade.
唯一不算AI相关的板块，我想就是必需消费品和医疗保健，这两个加起来大概占标普的14%。
The only sectors that are not AI-ish, for lack of a better word, I think would be staples and healthcare, which combined is something like 14% of the S&P.
所以标普剩下的86%，或多或少都跟AI沾边。
So the remaining 86% of the S&P, to one degree or another, is AI-ish.
所以这就是唯一重要的叙事。
So that's the only narrative that matters.
史蒂夫·艾斯曼是一位投资分析师和投资组合经理，在金融市场有几十年的经验。
Steve Eisman is an investment analyst and portfolio manager with decades of experience in financial markets.
他最出名的是在2008年次贷危机中发挥的关键作用，他预测到了危机并从中获利，这段经历被记录在《大空头》里。
He is best known for his pivotal role in predicting and profiting from the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis chronicled in "The Big Short."
史蒂夫创立并管理了Emrys Partners，这是一家专注于基本面分析的多空股票基金。
Steve founded and managed Emrys Partners, a long-short equity fund focused on fundamental analysis.
2014年，他加入了Neuberger Berman，担任董事总经理和投资组合经理。
In 2014, he joined Neuberger Berman as managing director and portfolio manager.
现在，史蒂夫是每周金融播客《The Real Eisman Playbook》的主持人。
Now, Steve is the host of "The Real Eisman Playbook," a weekly financial podcast.
史蒂夫，非常感谢你抽出时间。
Steve, really appreciate your time.
祝你今天愉快。
Have a good day.
本期节目由克莱尔·米勒和艾莉森·韦斯制作，本杰明·斯宾塞负责工程技术。
This episode was produced by Claire Miller and Allison Weiss and engineered by Benjamin Spencer.
我们的视频编辑是Jorge Carte。
Our video editor is Jorge Carte.
我们的研究团队是Dan Chalon、Kristen O'Donoghue和Mia Silverio。
Our research team is Dan Chalon, Kristen O'Donoghue, and Mia Silverio.
Jake McPherson是我们的社交制作人。
Jake McPherson is our social producer.
Drew Burrows是我们的技术总监，Katherine Dillon是我们的执行制片人。
Drew Burrows is our technical director, and Katherine Dillon is our executive producer.
感谢收听Prof G Media的Prof G Markets节目。
Thank you for listening to Prof G Markets from Prof G Media.
如果你喜欢我们的内容，记得关注我们，周一见，一起聊聊市场的新鲜观点。
If you liked what you heard, give us a follow, and join us for a fresh take on the markets on Monday.
一辈子。
Lifetime.
你拥有我。
You have me.
以实物形式。
In kind.
重聚。
Reunion.
随着世界的转动。
As the world turns.
鸽子在哭泣。
And the dove cries.
在爱中。
In love.
关于 Bayt 播客
Bayt 提供中文+原文双语音频和字幕，帮助你打破语言障碍，轻松听懂全球优质播客。