历史上最大的IPO并不是你所想的那样

本节目由Odoo赞助。做生意已经够难了，干嘛还非得用一堆互不相通的软件给自己添堵？

Support for this show comes from Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other?

来认识一下Odoo吧。

Introducing Odoo.

这是你这辈子唯一需要的商业软件。

It's the only business software you'll ever need.

它是一个全集成的一站式平台，让你的工作轻松不少。

It's an all in one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier.

客户管理、财务、库存、电商，还有更多功能，全都有。

CRM, accounting, inventory, ecommerce, and more.

最棒的是什么？

And the best part?

Odoo用不到几分之一的价钱，就取代了多个昂贵的系统。

Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost.

所以，成千上万的企业都选择了换用Odoo。

That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch.

那你为什么不来试试呢？

So why not you?

去 odoo.com 免费试用 Odoo 吧。

Try Odoo for free at odoo.com.

就是 odoo.com。

That's odoo.com.

朋友推荐真的挺管用的。

Recommendations can be great.

说不定就是有人推荐了这个播客，你才点进来的。

Maybe someone recommended this podcast, and here you are.

但家里搞装修就不一样了。

But home projects are a little different.

要是这播客不合你胃口，最多就是浪费几分钟。

If the podcast isn't your thing, you might lose a few minutes from your day.

可如果你请表弟的邻居来帮你装电视，搞不好电视装歪了，墙还给你砸坏了。

But if you hire your cousin's neighbor to mount your TV, you might end up with a lopsided screen and wall damage.

找个人帮忙，这可不能当靠谱的家装策略。

I know a guy isn't a good strategy for your home.

所以Thumbtack才这么管用。

That's why Thumbtack works so well.

它能把你和本地评分最高的专业人士匹配起来，照片、评价、资质，全都在一个地方，方便得很。

It matches you with top rated local pros with photos, reviews, and credentials all in one convenient place.

下次搞家装，试试Thumbtack吧。

For your next home project, try Thumbtack.

今天就雇个靠谱的师傅。

Hire the right pro today.

本节目由Odoo赞助。做生意已经够难了，干嘛还非得用一堆互不相通的App给自己添堵？

Support for this show comes from Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other?

介绍下Odoo。

Introducing Odoo.

这是你这辈子唯一需要的商业软件。

It's the only business software you'll ever need.

这是一个一体化的完整平台，让你的工作轻松多了。

It's an all in one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier.

客户管理、财务、库存、电商，还有更多功能。

CRM, accounting, inventory, ecommerce, and more.

最棒的是什么？

And the best part?

Odoo 用不到原来几分之一的价格，就取代了多个昂贵的系统。

ODOO replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost.

所以才有成千上万的企业都换成了 Odoo。

That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch.

你还有什么理由不试试呢？

So why not you?

去 odoo.com 免费体验一下吧。

Try Odoo for free at odoo.com.

就是 odoo.com。

That's odoo.com.

今天的数字是90。

Today's number, 90.

拉塞尔·布兰德在皮尔斯·摩根节目上，想找个他最爱的圣经段落，折腾了90秒都没找到，最后放弃了。

That's how many seconds Russell Brand spent trying to find his favorite bible quote live on Piers Morgan before he finally gave up.

这位前喜剧演员上节目，是为宣传他的新书《七天成为基督徒》。

The former comedian was on the show to discuss his new book, How to Become a Christian in Seven Days.

据说第一步，就是被指控性犯罪。

Sources say step one is to be accused of sex crimes.

搞建设真是要命。

Building is hell.

但节目还得继续。

Show goes on.

总统压根儿没看过，真是可惜。

The president never watched it so sad.

欢迎来到Prof G市场。

Welcome to Prof G Markets.

我是埃德·埃尔森。

I'm Ed Elson.

今天是4月28号。

It is April 28.

咱们来看看昨天的市场关键数据。

Let's check-in on yesterday's market vitals.

主要股指涨跌不一，因为特朗普正在考虑伊朗提出的提议——解除封锁，开放霍尔木兹海峡。

The major indices were mixed as Trump considered a proposal from Iran to end the blockade and open the Strait Of Hormuz.

标普和纳指都创了新高，道指则微跌了一点。

The S and P and the Nasdaq edged up to new records while the Dow fell slightly.

与此同时，油价上涨，微软股价因与OpenAI重新谈判协议而在盘初下跌。

Meanwhile, oil prices rose and Microsoft stock fell early on the day on a renegotiated deal with OpenAI.

不过后来股价反弹，收盘转涨。

The stock later recovered to end in the green.

更多细节待会儿再说。

More on that later.

好的。

Okay.

还有啥新鲜事？

What else is happening?

SpaceX正准备进行史上最大规模的IPO，但投资者开始琢磨：他们到底被要求买啥？

SpaceX is gearing up for the biggest IPO in history, but investors are starting to wonder what exactly they are being asked to buy.

这家公司目标估值两万亿美元，一上市就能挤进标普500最强公司行列，但它早就不只是家航天公司了。

The company is targeting a 2,000,000,000,000 valuation, which would instantly rank it among the largest companies in the S and P 500, but this is no longer just a space company.

它还是家卫星互联网公司、发射服务公司，而且越来越像家AI公司——新投资、新收购，故事越堆越多。

It's also a satellite Internet company, a launch company, and increasingly an AI company with new bets and new acquisitions adding to the story.

尽管 hype 满天飞，但这个可能几年内最大市场事件背后，真有不少问号：比如，太空数据中心真能大规模跑起来吗？

And for all of the hype, there are real questions hanging over what would be the market's biggest event in years, such as can space based data centers actually work at scale?

公司上市后，马斯克还能不能牢牢掌控？

What happens to Elon Musk's control once the company goes public?

最终，这两万亿美元的估值，能在公开市场撑得住吗？

And ultimately, can that 2,000,000,000,000 valuation be sustained in the public markets?

今天请来帮我们解答这些问题的是帕特里克·布瓦，伦敦国王学院的教授，前对冲基金经理，也是最受欢迎的金融类YouTube频道之一的主理人。

Well, here to help us answer many of these questions, we are speaking with Patrick Boyle, professor at King's College London, former hedge fund manager and host of one of the most popular finance YouTube channels.

帕特里克，真高兴见到你，终于把你请到节目里来了。

Patrick, so good to see you and so glad to finally have you on the show.

我找你来是因为SpaceX这次IPO很可能是金融市场上多年以来最重要的一件事，而你最近刚发布了一个视频，标题叫《SpaceX上市丑闻》。

I wanted to speak with you because this SpaceX IPO is set to be one of the most important events in a really long time in the financial markets, and you recently released a video titled, quote, the SpaceX IPO scandal.

那我先问个最直接的问题：你为什么说这是一场‘丑闻’？

So I will start with the obvious question, which is why did you describe this IPO as a scandal?

这家公司到底是怎么向投资者推销自己的？

How is this company being sold to investors?

你对这次IPO最怀疑的地方是什么？

What are you skeptical of with this IPO?

其实最让人质疑的，是他们硬要把SpaceX塞进纳斯达克100指数，而且几乎是立刻就要加进去。

Well, the the thing that's quite questionable about the way this IPO is being done is just the way that it is being forced into the Nasdaq 100 index almost instantly.

我听说大概会有十五天的延迟。

I think there's gonna be a fifteen day delay.

而且，给它的等待期也远超一般低流通股公司的水平。

And also the waiting that it'll be given is much higher than you would expect for a company with a very low float.

说来有点讽刺，这家公司上市时的估值高得离谱。

So in a funny way, the company goes public at a very high valuation.

很多人肯定会抢着买。

People will probably buy in.

首先，大家对马斯克和他的公司都特别狂热。

Firstly, there's a lot of people are just very excited about Elon Musk and his companies.

他们冲进去投资，但指望的是十五天后指数基金接着接盘。

They'll put money in, but then the expectation is that the indexes will be buying fifteen days later.

按现在说的估值，它在纳斯达克100指数里能占到4.5%的权重。

You know, at the current valuation they're talking about, it would have a four and a half percent weight in the in the Nasdaq 100.

还有人说标普也可能想提前把它加进去。

There's also been talk about possibly S and P pushing for early inclusion as well.

那就会引发一场疯狂抢购，把股票硬塞进那些不看估值的指数基金口袋里。

And that would essentially mean that there's just a frenzy of it being bought up, stuffed into the portfolios of people who index, who are not really valuation sensitive.

但得说清楚，他们说的这个估值，是营收的125倍。

And it's the the valuation they're talking about, to be clear, they're talking about a 125 times sales.

这不是利润，是销售额。

So that's not earnings, that's sales.

我们甚至都不知道SpaceX的实际利润是多少。

And we don't even really know what the earnings are of SpaceX.

路透社之前报道说他们EBITDA有80亿美元，但EBITDA不等于利润。

There was, you know, the Reuters published that they had EBITDA of, $8,000,000,000, but EBITDA is not earnings.

EBITDA还没扣掉造卫星、造火箭这些成本，而对SpaceX来说，这些开销可不小。

It's earnings before essentially the cost of building satellites and building rockets, you know, which for SpaceX, you have to imagine is a significant cost.

我记得2002年左右，太阳微系统的CEO斯科特·麦克尼利说过一段特别有名的话，讲的是大家给太阳微系统投的天价估值，他就问：‘他们到底在想什么？’

There there's a famous quote from, I think, around 2002 where Scott McNeely, who was the CEO of Sun Microsystems, spoke about, you know, the the price that people had invested in Sun Microsystems at, and he said, well, you you know, what were they thinking?

当时大家是按10倍营收来投的。

They invested a 10 times sales.

他说，如果你真按10倍营收投钱，想十年内回本，那我得把所有营收都当股息发给你，还得假设我一分钱不花在员工、研发和生产上。

And he said, you know, if you put your money in a 10 times sales in order for me to return it to you in ten years' time, I have to pay all of the earnings out or sorry, all of the sales out as dividends, and that assumes that I'm not paying any staff, that I have no r and d cost, that there's no manufacturing costs.

他说，以十倍营收的估值，投资者根本别想回本。

He said there was no way people were gonna get a return on investment at 10 times sales.

现在倒好，人家谈的是一百二十五倍营收。

Now we're talking about a 125 times sales.

顺便说一句，SpaceX确实是个让人兴奋的公司。

And, you know, it's worth noting as well that that SpaceX is it it is an exciting company.

它在增长，但分析师预计明年也就增长25%左右。

It is growing, but it's not grow you know, analysts expect it to grow 25% next year.

这点增长远远不够。

That's not good enough.

你看谷歌上市的时候，我记不清是多久以前了，但那会儿它每年增长240%，上市时估值也是十倍营收。

Like, Google went public, I forget how long ago, but it they were growing at 240% a year, and they went public at 10 times sales once again.

所以问题根本不在这家公司是好是坏。

And so the the price the it's not really the the question isn't whether it's a good or a bad company.

公司差，但买得便宜，也可能赚大钱；公司再牛，买贵了，照样亏得惨。

A bad company can be a good investment if you get in at a low enough price, and an amazing company can be a terrible investment if you overpay for the stock.

这里面信息量太大了，得慢慢理。

So so much in there to unpack.

咱先别扯远的，就聊聊这价格吧。

I mean, I guess let's just focus on the price for a moment.

你说，要是真按有效市场假说来，等它上市那天，投资者肯定得说：‘两万亿美元？开什么玩笑！’

Why is I mean, when it goes public, you could imagine a world if we lived in in an efficient markets world, you can imagine a world where investors would say $2,000,000,000,000 that's ridiculous.

我不买，这价太离谱了。

I'm not buying.

股价立马就得崩。

And the stock immediately plummets.

那倒好，问题也就解决了。

In which case, maybe it's not a problem.

但私有市场里，这种忽悠事儿好像特别多，估值能炒到这种荒唐数字，大概就是因为谈判太僵了，没人较真。

It seems as though in the private markets, there seems to be a little bit more BS available, and you can command these kind of ridiculous valuations, I guess, because the negotiations are a little bit more entrenched.

埃隆一开口就说两万亿，咱们也只好随口应下，签字了事。

And Elon just says 2,000,000,000,000, and we say whatever, and we sign the contract.

但我觉得，公开市场设的门槛其实更高，没那么容易过。

But I feel like there's a a bit of a it's a harder bar to hurdle to get over in the public markets.

我完全同意你前面说的，不过我倒觉得这里头可能还有点别的道理。

So I'm with you on all of this, but I wonder if maybe there's an argument to be made here.

要是真上市了，市场自然会给出真实估值，说不定根本就不是骗局。

Well, if it goes public, the markets will decide what the true valuation is, and therefore, maybe there isn't a scam.

对。

Yeah.

说白了，市场的功能本来就是给这些公司定价。

I mean, that that is the that is the purpose of of markets is to essentially weigh these companies.

从长远来看，其实都不重要。

And in the long run, it doesn't matter.

长期来看，只要公司盈利增长，股价自然会上去。

Like, that in the long run, a good company that grows earnings will go up.

当然了，要想跑赢大盘，公司还得不断超预期才行。

And and but, of course, in order to go up more than the market, it needs to surprise to the upside.

对吧？

Right?

公司要想跑赢市场，就得比大家想的还要厉害。

Like, a company needs to be better than people thought it was to perform better than the market.

如果大家对这家公司的评价本来就是对的，那它的回报也就只是市场平均水平而已。

If it's if people are right about how good the the company is, well, then it would expect to get, you know, standard stock market returns.

所以当你以这么离谱的估值上市——这种估值以前根本没人见过。

So when you go public at such an extreme valuation, I mean, the likes of which has never been heard of before.

没错。

Right.

说来有趣，有些分析师说，根本找不到能跟它比的公司。

You know, it's funny because there's some analysts out there and they're saying, there's nothing to compare it to.

航空航天公司可以跟科技公司比，甚至可以跟Nvidia这种产品供不应求的公司比。

And and, you know, aerospace companies, you can compare it to technology companies, you can compare it even to, we'll say just companies like Nvidia that have a product that there's a lot of demand for.

然后你就会问，Nvidia的增速到底有多快？

And, you know, and then you'd say, well, how much is Nvidia growing?

SpaceX到底能长到多大？

How much will SpaceX grow?

就是嘛，说来说去。

Blah blah blah.

但问题是，要是真按这么高的估值来看，根本找不到对标的东西。

But the problem is there's nothing to compare it to if you go with a valuation like this.

要是你用个更实际、更接地气的估值呢？

If you went with a more, I don't know, moderate or earthbound valuation.

那就有得比了——一个做互联网服务、小小AI公司，还负责往太空送货物的公司。

Plenty to compare a company that is an internet service provider, a very small AI company and, you know, delivers payloads into space.

对啊。

Right.

说真的，市场确实决定估值，但到目前为止，他们为了抬高估值，走了不少捷径。

It it almost seems as though I I mean, the markets will decide what the valuation is, but thus far, they have taken a few kind of shortcuts to achieve this valuation.

这些捷径包括吹什么太空数据中心、画未来大饼，再把X AI并进来，又收购Cursor塞进AI公司，搞得公司必须不断膨胀、不断膨胀、再膨胀。

And it seems that some of those shortcuts would include talking about data centers in space and talking about the future and then merging x AI and putting that into the company and then buying Cursor and putting another AI company into the thing so that you have to keep on growing and growing and growing.

你提到的另一个点，我之前还真没好好想过，就是直接走捷径进纳斯达克——这等于立马给股票带来更大买盘压力，因为全美无数个401(k)养老金账户都会被动买入，自然推高了估值。

And then the other point that you make, which I up until now, hadn't thought properly about is the idea of just shortcutting your way into the Nasdaq, which I assume immediately puts more buying pressure on the stock because it's essentially inserted into people's portfolios, many four zero one k's throughout the country, thus resulting in an elevated valuation.

所以问题就在这儿：他们用这一连串操作，简直是在造假。

Hence, it seems like that's kind of where the scandal is that when it's employing all of these strategies to almost fake it.

是的。

Yeah.

首先，纳斯达克得改掉所有规则才能让这家公司进来，因为正常情况下，指数纳入有明确标准：比如小盘股要进指数，得看流通股比例、上市时间多久，毕竟得让市场真正磨合出价格，有真实的买卖双方参与。

Like, the, you know, the the idea that so firstly, Nasdaq had to change all of their rules to allow this inclusion because normally a company needs to be you know, there's a list of rules as to how they weigh, you know, a low float company going into an index, how long it's been public because the idea is it needs to be seasoned in the market and sort of find a valuation with real buyers and sellers.

通常来说，至少得等一年才可能考虑纳入。

So normally, you would expect it to take about a year at least to even consider adding it.

十五天就搞定，这根本闻所未闻，还取消了流通股上限的限制。

Fifteen days is unheard of, and then getting rid of the caps for the float on it.

路透社报道说，这是因为马斯克亲自跟纳斯达克谈的，意思就是：你们想让我上纳斯达克？行，但得走快速通道。

And, you know, Reuters reported that this is because Elon Musk negotiated with NASDAQ and said, you know, we we can list this thing on the nicey, we can list it on the NASDAQ, we can list it wherever we want.

你们要是真想让我上纳斯达克，就得接受这种快速纳入指数的安排。

If you want it on the NASDAQ, you have to go with fast tracked index insertion.

所以，对所有已经持有SpaceX股票的人来说，这当然是好事。

And so that, you know, it's I mean, obviously, that's good for everyone who already owns SpaceX stock.

但如果你买的是指数基金，得注意了——这还不只是指数基金的事，很多自称是主动管理的基金经理，其实也差不多。

But if you are a person who owns index funds and and it's worth noting, it's not even just index funds because there's an awful lot of, you know, fund managers who claim to be active managers.

你要是看他们的持仓，根本就跟指数一模一样。

But if you look at their portfolios, they look exactly like an index.

所以除了指数基金买入，还有一大堆基金经理会想：‘我要是不买这只占纳斯达克4.5%的股票，拿什么跟纳斯达克比业绩？’

And so apart from the indexes buying, there will be just a bunch of portfolio managers who say, I can't afford to take the risk of not owning a stock that's four and a half percent of the Nasdaq if I'm being judged against the Nasdaq.

说白了，这招真是绝了，正好在公司上市那刻，把需求推到顶峰。

And so, you know, in all honesty, it's a very smart way of maximizing demand for the stock right on the point of it going public.

从纳斯达克的角度看，临时改规则，这事伦理上挺站不住脚的——毕竟赶在了史上最大IPO前夕，我印象中之前最大是沙特阿美，融了两千九百亿。

You know, it's questionably ethical from the perspective of the people at NASDAQ to sort of change all of their rules, you know, right around what is by far the I I believe it's the biggest IPO in history because, before that with Saudi Aramco where they did, I think they they did a $29,000,000,000 IPO.

这次呢，光是公开募股就打算搞七千五百亿。

They're talking about 75,000,000,000 for for this, you know, the public float.

所以

So

是的。

Yeah.

很多道德问题其实都落在了纳斯达克身上，这让我想起当年纳斯达克决定把MicroStrategy纳入指数的时候。

A lot of the ethical questions do land on the Nasdaq here, and I'm reminded of when the Nasdaq decided to include MicroStrategy in the index.

我一看见这个消息，心里就咯噔一下：这下真出问题了。

And as soon as I saw that, I was like, oh, now it now it's really a problem.

以前这不过是个搞比特币金库的公司，说白了就是一堆忽悠。

It used to be that this was just a guy who had this Bitcoin treasury company, and it was kind of a bunch of BS.

但你要是真买了，那是你自愿的，也没啥好说的。

But if you bought it, you bought it, and that's okay.

可一旦我们把它系统化了……

But as soon as we systematize

而且你买了，也得到了你想要的东西。

it And if you bought it, you got what you wanted.

对。

Yeah.

但突然间，你把这东西交到根本不知道它是什么、买的是啥的人手里了。

But then suddenly, you're putting it into people's hands who don't even know what it is or what they're actually buying.

对。

Mhmm.

我想问的是，纳斯达克到底为啥要这么做？

And I guess the question that that that I would ask is, like, why is the Nasdaq incentivized to do this exactly?

他们为啥要改规则？

Why are they changing their rules?

为啥非得这么着急把这家公司塞进指数里？

Why are they so desperate to include this company in the index?

因为这公司体量太大了，要是真上市，估值得有1.75到2万亿美元吧。

Well, it's a huge it's going to be a huge company, especially if it if it goes public at at, what, 1.75 to $2,000,000,000,000.

现在美国市值比这高的公司，估计就五家左右。

It will be I think there's only five US companies bigger than that right now.

你想想，谷歌、微软、英伟达这些，它一上市，就是个巨无霸了。

You're talking about like Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, you know, they they will be listing a big company.

他们从这些交易所费用、交易手续费上可是赚了不少钱。

There's all sorts of exchange fees, trading fees, whatever that they earn off of this.

是的。

Yeah.

要是这公司最后上了纳斯达克，他们才不会高兴呢。

It it would not be they would be unhappy if it ended up on the NICEE, for example.

对。

Yeah.

单从这家公司的业务本身来看，你怎么看SpaceX？

Just looking at the the business itself, what do you make of SpaceX as a business?

很明显，你和很多人都觉得这估值有点离谱。

I mean, clearly, you believe and many believe that the valuation is a little bit nuts.

它的估值甚至会超过特斯拉。

It would be more valuable than Tesla.

你到底怎么看待这家公司的？

What do you make of this business?

你凭什么觉得这个估值合理？

What make you the valuation?

其实真正的问题是，里面好多东西根本就像彩票一样。

Well, the the real question is there's there's an awful lot of stuff in there that you would consider sort of lottery tickets.

对吧？

Right?

比如什么太空数据中心，听着就不太靠谱。

Like, where it's stuff that it seems a little bit unlikely, this whole data centers in space thing.

这事儿以前试过。

It's been tried.

有家公司，名字我一时想不起来了，他们真把一块NVIDIA芯片装进小卫星里，想用它跑个AI程序，好像是要让它学莎士比亚的作品之类的。

There's a company, I can't think of their name now, but they they launched one Nvidia chip into space in a little satellite, to run an AI program where I think it was meant to, you know, learn the works of Shakespeare or something like that.

结果老是自动关机，因为太热了，在太空里散热太难了。

It constantly had to be shut down because it overheats, because it's very difficult.

人人都说太空冷，可那是真空啊，散热得靠空气或水流对流，这根本做不到。

You know, everyone says, well, space is cold, but it's also a vacuum and you need air blowing over something or water or whatever to to cool it via convection.

如果只能靠辐射散热，那得装上巨大无比的散热片才行。

If it has to cool radiatively, you need these massive, massive cooling fins on it.

所以这个迷你‘莎士比亚卫星’的下一代，散热片规模得排到太空第二，仅次于国际空间站。

And so the next version of this tiny, you know, Shakespeare satellite is going to have the second largest cooling array in space behind the International Space Station.

对吧？

Right?

咱们说的可是怎么给一个真正的数据中心散热——就是地球上那种规模的数据中心。

Like, so we're talking about, you know, a very question to to cool like an actual data center, the type of thing they build on Earth.

你想想，那散热片得有好几英里见方那么大。

I mean, you're talking about cooling fins that are miles and miles square.

这玩意儿要是真搞出来，绝对是人类在太空中造过的最大物体，而且远远超过第二名。

Like, I mean, it's it's it would be the largest man made object in space by a long, long, long shot.

所以从实际可行性来看，这事儿能成吗？

So in terms of like, could this ever work?

理论上是能成，毕竟不违反物理定律，但制造起来难度太大，想把它送上去也得花上老长时间。

It could, like, I mean, you know, it doesn't violate the laws of physics, but it might be very difficult to manufacture and to get up there in a timely manner.

你知道吗，真正赚钱的其实是Starlink，据我们所知，SpaceX至少66%的利润都来自这家卫星互联网公司。

You know, there's also this kind of insane expectations around the real profit center, like 66% of the profits, at least as far as we know, of SpaceX come from Starlink, you know, the satellite Internet company.

目前他们大概有一千万付费用户，我觉得是这样。

And they have at the moment around 10,000,000 paying customers, I believe.

有些分析师说，他们最终可能能拿下十二亿用户。

You know, there's some analysts out there and they said that that they would reach 1,200,000,000 customers.

你想想，地球上现在有十亿人每天收入只有35美元，一年还不到一万两千块。

Now that's quite an amazing number when you look at the population of the planet who are like, there's 1,000,000,000 people on the planet who earn $35 a day, which comes to a bit under $12,000 a year.

这些人怎么可能花一百五十美元一个月买网络服务呢？

They will not be paying for, you know, a $150 a month Internet access.

对吧？

Right?

所以问题来了，Starlink到底能长多大？

Like, the the question is how big can can Starlink get?

说真的，它可能已经快接近上限了。

And the the it's reasonable to think that maybe it's close to its capacity.

再说 SpaceX 的发射业务，他们已经是全球最大的发射服务商了。

And then when you even look at at SpaceX's launch, they are the biggest launch provider in the world.

他们送进太空的东西，比谁都多。

Like, they take the most stuff into space.

但我觉得，他们运上去的货物里，至少有三分之二，甚至更多，都是星链卫星。

But I think around two thirds of what they bring into space, if not more, is Starlink satellites.

说白了，就是他们自己家的东西在往天上送。

Like, it's their own stuff they're putting up there.

所以，对于其他想把东西送进太空的公司来说，这个市场到底有多大，其实并不明显，可能跟现在发射的总量差不了多少。

So in terms of, like, how big the market is for other companies that want to put stuff in space, it's not obvious that it's a whole lot bigger than what's being launched right now.

帕特里克·博伊尔，伦敦国王学院教授，前对冲基金经理，热门金融 YouTube 频道主。

Patrick Boyle, professor at King's College London, former hedge fund manager, host of a popular finance YouTube channel.

帕特里克，今天咱们得先到这里了，话题实在太多，这事太重要了，大家真得好好理清楚里面的门道。

Patrick, we're gonna have to continue this discussion another time because there's so much to get into here, and it is gonna be such an important event that people need to wrap their heads around and actually understand the details.

你提到的这些细节，真的特别关键。

And a lot of those details that you bring out are massively important.

非常感谢你参与我们的节目。

So thank you very much for joining us.

谢谢你们邀请我。

Thank you for having me on.

这真是一次愉快的对话。

It's been a pleasure.

广告后我们聊聊，为什么新兴市场现在这么火。

After the break, why emerging markets are on a tear right now.

顺便说一句，我们五月份要开始巡演了。

And by the way, we are heading out on tour at the May.

想来看我们现场演出的话，去 profgmarketstour.com 买票吧。

So if you wanna come see us live, go to prof g markets tour dot com to get your tickets.

特别期待见到你。

Can't wait to see you.

本节目由以下赞助商支持：经营企业已经够难了，干嘛还用十几个互不相通的App给自己添堵？

Support for this show comes from Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other?

介绍下这款软件，它是你这辈子唯一需要的商业工具。

Introducing It's the only business software you'll ever need.

这是一个集成了所有功能的一站式平台，让你的工作轻松多了。

It's an all in one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier.

客户管理、财务、库存、电商，样样都有。

CRM, accounting, inventory, ecommerce, and more.

最棒的是什么？

And the best part?

Odoo 用不到几分之一的价钱，就取代了那些昂贵又零散的系统。

Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost.

所以才有成千上万的企业都换成了它。

That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch.

你还在等什么？

So why not you?

马上去 odoo.com 免费试用吧。

Try Odoo for free at odoo dot com.

就是 odoo.com。

That's odoo.com.

某个平平无奇的早晨，Barb 的日子突然就炸了。

Once upon a mundane morning, Barb's day got busy without warning.

一位房产中介急需

A realtor in need of

一块开放日的指示牌。

an open house sign.

不。

No.

要五十块，还得在九点前设计好。

50 of them and designed before nine.

我头都大了。

My head hurts.

有啥神器能帮帮我搞定这破管子吗？

Any mighty tools to help with this pipe?

巴布行动了。

Barb made her move.

她打开Canva，立马进入状态。

She opened Canva and got in the groove.

用Canva一做，50块标牌全搞定。

Both creating Canva sheets create 50 signs

特别适合郊区街道。

fit for suburban streets.

点一下就完事了？

Done in a click?

全部弄好了。

All complete.

太棒了。

Sweet.

想象一下，只要你把想象力用在Canva.com上，你的梦想能变成什么样。

Now imagine what your dreams can become when you put imagination to work at canva.com.

本节目由Harvey AI赞助支持。

Support for this show comes from Harvey AI.

法律的未来不是靠辅助工具，而是由能独立处理复杂事务的AI代理来驱动。

The future of law is agentic, not just tools that assist, but AI agents that navigate complex matters.

所以Harvey打造了能从头到尾全程干活的代理系统。

That's why Harvey created agents that can do the work from end to end.

它们会制定计划，调取安全数据源，并行运行多个子代理，最后生成可以直接交给你审阅的成果。

They build a plan, pull from secure data sources, run sub agents in parallel, and draft the work product ready for your review.

你只管把活儿交出去，决策权依然在你手里。

So you delegate the work and own the judgment.

已有超过60%的美国百强律所和顶级财富500强法务团队都在用Harvey，它是专为法律工作打造的AI操作系统。

Trusted by more than 60% of the Amlaw one hundred and leading Fortune 500 legal teams, Harvey is the AI operating system designed specifically for legal work.

Harvey AI，专为法律而生。

Harvey AI tailored for law.

了解更多，请访问harvey.ai。

Learn more at harvey.ai.

我们回来了，继续聊Prof G Markets。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

现在新兴市场股票涨得可真猛。

Emerging market stocks are on a tear right now.

昨天，MSCI新兴市场指数创了新高，超过了二月的峰值。

The MSCI Emerging Markets index hit a new all time high yesterday, surpassing its February peak.

今年这指数已经涨了大约16%。

The index is up about 16% this year.

这差不多是标普500涨幅的三倍。

That's roughly three times the gains of the S and P 500.

韩国和台湾领涨，主要靠AI芯片需求拉动。

South Korea and Taiwan are leading the move driven by AI chip demand.

这次上涨是因为有消息说，伊朗提出要重新开放海峡，条件是美国解除对伊朗港口的封锁。

This latest rally came on a report that Iran offered to reopen the strait in exchange for The US lifting its blockade of Iranian ports.

不过油价还是紧张，布伦特原油还在每桶110美元左右徘徊。

However, the oil markets remain on edge with Brent crude still trading at around a $110 a barrel.

今天我们请来GQG Partners的副投资经理西德，帮我们深入分析一下当前新兴市场的情况。

So here to help us unpack what we're seeing in emerging markets right now, we are speaking with Sid deputy portfolio manager at GQG Partners.

西德，感谢你做客我们的节目。

Sid, thank you for joining us on the show.

在深入讨论当前局势之前，你能先帮我们回顾一下，什么是新兴市场吗？

Before we get into what's happening here, could you just remind us what emerging markets actually are?

这个类别到底指的是什么？

What is this category?

它都包括哪些内容？

What does it entail?

当然可以。

Absolutely.

新兴市场其实是个很宽泛的说法，通常指的是那些金融体系还处在早期发展阶段、相对不那么发达的国家。

So emerging markets, it's just a broad term, generally includes countries that are less developed earlier on in their financialization.

但说实话，从市场角度看，很多被归入这一类的国家，其实并不像传统意义上‘新兴’的样子。

And then but frankly, from a from a markets perspective, a lot of countries that fall under that aren't what you would consider emerging.

比如台湾、韩国，这些国家和地区其实高度发达、收入也很高，但因为历史原因，投资上还是被归到新兴市场里。

So for example, a Taiwan, South Korea, this is generally highly developed, high income countries, but because of their legacy, they still get included under the emerging markets from from a markets perspective.

对。

Yep.

我觉得咱们真该给它们换个名字。

I always think that we should create a new name for them.

‘新兴市场’这词儿，根本配不上它们。

I just feel like emerging markets doesn't really do it justice.

不管怎么说，今年到目前为止，这些市场已经涨了16%。

Either way, those markets are up 16% year to date.

伊朗战争一爆发，它们就跌了，但现在已经全数收复失地。

They sold off when the Iran War started, but they've now recovered all of it.

这涨幅是标普500今年涨幅的三倍还多。

And that's three times more than three times higher than the S and P's gain so far this year.

所以眼下，它们的表现远远甩开美国市场。

So they are massively outperforming US markets at the moment.

所以问题来了，这到底是为啥？

I guess the question is, why is that happening?

没错。

Sure.

现在的新兴市场指数成分根本反映不了这些国家真实的经济状况。

So what's with the the the current composition of the emerging market index is that it's really not a reflection on the underlying emerging market economies.

它现在更像是在押注你看到的AI资本开支热潮。

It's basically become a bet on the AI CapEx build out you're seeing.

过去两三年里，推动新兴市场的主要力量其实是半导体板块，尤其是台湾的台积电，还有韩国的内存厂商——SK海力士和三星。

So the big drivers of the emerging markets for the last better part of last two, three years now have been the semiconductor plays, specifically in Taiwan, TSMC being the big one, and South Korea, the memory companies, SK Hynix and Samsung.

有个数据特别惊人：今年到目前为止，台积电、三星和SK海力士这三家半导体公司，贡献了整个指数近七成的盈利增长。

And in one stat that's pretty mind blowing is that if you look at it on a year to date basis, those three semiconductor companies, TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix, are driving almost 70% of the entire index's earnings growth.

太惊人了。

Wow.

所以这本质上已经变成一场单边押注，赌的就是这场资本开支的爆发。

So this has basically become a one way bet on the CapEx build out that you're seeing.

去年我们也看到过类似的情况，新兴市场表现远超标普指数。

We saw a similar thing last year where, again, emerging markets way outperformed the S and P.

标普涨了16%。

S and was up 16%.

新兴市场全年涨了30%。

Emerging markets was up 30% for the year.

这表现简直太惊人了。

Kind of incredible performance.

那次也是同样的情况吗？

Was that the same story?

是那几家芯片公司，再加上几个发展中国家在撑着吗？

Was that a handful of chip companies and a few of these less developed economies?

对，那是个主要推动力。

So that was a big driver.

因为这些公司在指数里占的权重太大了，稍微动一动就影响整个大盘。

And just based on how large these companies are as a portion of benchmark, it moves the needle.

比如，台积电一家在指数里的权重，就比整个印度还高。

So for example, TSMC alone has a higher weighting in this benchmark than the entire country of India.

所以这影响可不小。

So it matters.

但你也能看到，其他非半导体领域也有很多亮眼的机会。

But there are a lot of bright spots you're seeing across other non semiconductor markets.

比如2025年，南美几乎所有国家的表现都特别出色。

So for example, 2025 was a fantastic year for pretty much every country in South America.

巴西就是个大赢家，不光是2025年，今年到目前为止都挺猛的——经济在好转，股市便宜得离谱，关键还赶上选举周期，这些国家正从左翼转向更亲商的右翼政策。

Brazil being another large winner, not just in 2025, but year to date, where the countries are actually doing quite well, economies are improving, their stocks are incredibly cheap, and an important catalyst has been a electoral cycle where the countries are moving from the left on the spectrum to more of a right wing business friendly environment.

这种趋势你确实能看出来。

So you're seeing that dynamic.

总的来说，我觉得这些新兴市场跟十年前比，基本面已经大幅提升了不少。

But by and large, would say a lot of these emerging markets have structurally improved versus what was the case ten years ago.

十年前，这些经济体可都蔫得很。

Ten years ago, these economies were in a funk.

摩根士丹利以前管这些国家叫‘脆弱五国’。

Morgan Stanley had a term called a fragile five for a lot of these countries.

但随着周期轮动，这些国家终于迎来了久违的增长反弹。

But as these cycles go, they've turned around, and growth is finally coming back up for a long time.

你觉得这种趋势能持续下去吗？

Do you think that this is something that we're going to see continue?

去年新兴市场涨得特别猛，今年还在继续，这事儿你没觉得挺意外吗？

I mean, it's been kind of a spectacular rally for emerging markets last year continuing into this year.

年初大家都在问：去年美国被几乎所有国家都超过了，这真是偶然吗？

And I feel like that was a big question at the start of the year, which is like, is I mean, it was an anomaly that The US was kind of outpaced by basically everyone else last year.

2026年大家关心的是：这种局面还能不能维持？

The question for 2026 was like, is that going to continue to happen?

到目前为止，答案是肯定的。

So far, the answer is yes.

你觉得未来还会是‘肯定’吗？

Do you think that it will continue to be yes going forward?

所以我觉得，还是得一个国家一个国家地看，毕竟这个指数被AI板块严重扭曲了，误导性太强。

So I I I would say you do have to look at it from a country by country basis because, again, the index is so misleading given how lopsided it is on AI.

对。

Yeah.

要是AI这个话题降温，甚至 worse 点，转成负面，那这个指数可就惨了。

If the AI topic story slows down or, God forbid, turns negative ever, then the index will be in a world of pain.

不过，撇开AI不说，还有很多自下而上的机会挺吸引人的。

However, outside of that, there's a lot of attractive bottom up stories.

比如南美、印度，我们一直在找机会，东欧也是。

I mean, talked about South America, India, we're finding opportunities, Eastern Europe.

其实有不少让人眼前一亮的标的。

So there's actually quite a bit of exciting names.

而且我觉得，现在我们正好处在周期的有趣节点——头一回，这些国家的企业盈利增长真的挺强劲的，这跟疫情前完全不一样。

And I think what's, again, where we are in the cycle is so fascinating where for the first time you're seeing earnings growth in these countries actually look pretty strong, which was not the case pre COVID.

举个例子，印度从2010年到2019年，按美元计的盈利增长基本是零。

So for example, if you take in India, from 2010 to 2019, India earnings growth was basically zero on a dollar basis.

现在这些国家的盈利增长已经跑到个位数到中 teens 的水平了，跟以前完全不一样。

Now you're getting low to mid teens earnings growth in terms of fundamental change versus what was the case before.

这跟去年闹得沸沸扬扬的‘做空美国’说法有多大关系？

How much of this has to do with the sell America trade, which got a lot of made a lot of headlines last year?

结果发现根本不是什么‘做空美国’。

It turned out not really to be sell America.

更准确地说，是‘对冲美国’。

It was probably more like hedge America.

美国股票其实没怎么被抛售，反而是其他市场的股票买盘汹涌。

You weren't really seeing that much selling pressure on US stocks, but ultimately, were seeing a lot of buying pressure on all the other stocks.

这背后有多少是这个原因，又有多少是纯粹因为那几家AI公司表现太炸了？

How much of this is that versus, say, just the incredible performance of a handful of these AI companies?

我不觉得这是‘做空美国’，而是大家突然意识到，自己对全球其他市场的配置实在太少了。

So I wouldn't go I wouldn't characterize it as Sell America, but rather just people realizing how underexposed they are to the rest of the world.

对。

Yeah.

过去十五年里，增长最猛的根本不是美国。

Because for the better part of fifteen years, the best earnings growth by far wasn't The US.

当时真没几个别的选择。

There really was not many other options.

所谓的‘TINA交易’——别无他选，只能投美国。

The Tina trade, so to speak, there's no alternative.

现在这情况快结束了。没错，美国确实有不少顶尖公司，但从增长角度看，好机会正慢慢扩散到世界其他地方。

That's kind of over where yes, US has some fantastic companies, but from a growth perspective, you're seeing it percolate to other parts of the world.

那还值得把所有钱都押在美国吗？外面不少地方机会更好，估值还更低。

And so does it make sense to have all your eggs in one basket where you can find better opportunities at generally lower valuations outside The US?

这更像是一种再平衡，而不是彻底清仓美国市场。

So it's more of a rebalancing than a wholesale, let's get out of America.

对。

Yes.

但显然也跟这个有关。

But certainly to do with it, it sounds like.

美国市场占比太高了，一看到这样，就觉得不对劲。

Mean, so much exposure in The US, and then it's like, okay.

我们确实得想办法降低风险了。

Well, we we need to derisk somehow.

咱们再回头说说伊朗的事。

Just going back to to Iran for a moment.

正如我之前提到的，当时市场大跌，但新兴市场后来又反弹了。

As I mentioned, there was this sell off and then emerging markets recovered.

我觉得这主要跟投资者对这些芯片公司供应链的预期有关。

And it seems as though this is largely a a result of investor expectations about the supply chains of these chip companies, I think.

不过，市场到底怎么看待伊朗和霍尔木兹海峡的局势，还真有点难琢磨。

Though it's kind of hard to understand how the markets really feel about Iran and the straight up Hormuz.

伊朗那边现在发生的事，跟新兴市场目前的表现到底有什么关系？

What can be said about what's happening in Iran and how it relates to the performance of emerging markets so far?

这两者之间到底有啥联系，我们到底知道多少？

What do we know about the relationship between the two?