伊朗战争风险被市场忽视

如果出现难民危机怎么办？

What if there is a refugee crisis?

我的意思是，这是一个拥有九千万人口的国家。

Mean, this is a country with a population of 90,000,000 people.

如果他们都决定，好吧。

What happens if they all decide, okay.

我们走吧。

We're out of here.

这是一个热点地区，事实确实如此，而他们决定不再逃往欧洲。

This is a hot zone, which it is, and they decided to stop fleeing to Europe.

这对欧洲的政治格局意味着什么？

What does that mean for the political, complexion of of Europe?

这对欧洲已经初现势头的右翼民粹主义崛起意味着什么？

What does that mean for the rise of right wing populism, which is already gaining some steam in Europe?

这对欧洲市场会有什么影响？

What would that do to European markets?

这会对美国市场产生什么影响？

How would that affect American markets?

我的大脑一直在转个不停，想各种可能的情况，我知道自己比大多数人更悲观。

Like, my mind is, like, whirring with all of the what ifs, and I get that I'm more of a pessimist than most.

但我感觉，这正是当前市场本应面对的问题。

But I feel like that's kind of what the markets are supposed to be contending with right now.

仅凭我与投资者的交谈，我觉得没有人真正认真考虑过这些潜在的糟糕结果。

And purely based on my conversations with investors, I feel like no one is honestly contending with those potentially bad outcomes.

广告后我们马上回来。

We'll be right back after the break.

如果你到目前为止喜欢这个节目，请分享给朋友，如果你还没关注的话，请关注我们。

And if you're enjoying the show so far, send it to a friend and please follow us if you haven't already.

本节目由Monarch赞助。

Support for the show comes from Monarch.

闻到了吗？

Smell that?

春天来了。

Spring is in the air.

这意味着阳光明媚、百花盛开，还有报税季。

That means sunshine, flowers in bloom, and tax season.

听好了。

Listen.

有些人期待着给会计师发送半年一次的邮件，但对其他人来说，别担心。

Some of us look forward to sending out our semiannual emails to our CPAs, but for the rest of us, fear not.

Monarch 来了。

Monarch is here.

用 Monarch 简化您的财务。

Simplify your finances with Monarch.

Monarch 是一款一体化的个人财务管理工具，旨在让您的生活更轻松。

Monarch is the all in one personal finance tool designed to make your life easier.

它将您的整个财务生活——预算、账户、投资、净资产和未来规划——整合到手机或笔记本电脑上的一个仪表板中。

It brings your entire financial life, budgeting, accounts, and investments, net worth, and future planning together in one dashboard on your phone or laptop.

在这个报税季，时刻掌握你的财务状况，使用代码 MARKETS 享受 Monarch 订阅五折优惠。

Feel aware and in control of your finances this tax season and get 50% off your Monarch subscription with code MARKETS.

Monarch 能够分析数据，为你提供个性化的洞察，例如发现隐藏模式、区分生活方式膨胀与通货膨胀、储蓄率变化等，这些信息或许能帮助你更明智地决定如何使用退税款。

Monarch can comb through the data to surface insights personalized to you such as hidden patterns, identifying lifestyle creep versus inflation, changes in savings rates and more, which might help you make an informed decision about how to use your tax return.

借助 Monarch——这款让财务管理变得简单的全能工具，彻底实现你的财务目标。

Achieve your financial goals for good with Monarch, the all in one tool that makes money management simple.

前往 monarch.com 并使用代码 markets，即可享受首年半价优惠。

Use code markets at monarch.com for half off your first year.

在 monarch.com 使用代码 markets，立享五折优惠。

That's 50% off at monarch.com, code markets.

本节目由 VCX 赞助，VCX 是私募科技公司的公开股票代码。

Support for the show comes from VCX, the public ticker for private tech.

几代以来，美国企业凭借其创造力和决心推动了世界进步。

For generations, American companies have moved the world forward to their ingenuity and determination.

几代以来，普通美国人也能够通过或许是人类最伟大的创新之一——美国股市，参与到这一进程中。

And for generations, everyday Americans could be part of that journey through perhaps the greatest innovation of all, The US stock market.

无论你是底特律的工厂工人，还是奥马哈的农民，都无关紧要。

It didn't matter whether you were a factory worker in Detroit or a farmer in Omaha.

任何人都能拥有这些伟大美国公司的股份。

Anyone could own a piece of the great American companies.

但如今，这种情况已经改变了。

But now that's changed.

如今，我们最具创新性的公司选择保持私有，而不是上市。

Today, our most innovative companies are staying private rather than going public.

结果是，普通美国人被排除在投资之外，越来越落后，而少数人却一直独享所有收益。

The result is that everyday Americans are excluded from investing and getting left further behind while a select few reap all the benefits until now.

推出VCX，私有科技的公开股票代码。

Introducing VCX, the public ticker for private tech.

VCX由Fundrise提供，让每个人都有机会投资于下一代创新，包括人工智能革命、太空探索、国防科技等领域。

VCX by Fundrise gives everyone the opportunity to invest in the next generation of innovation, including the company's leading AI revolution, space exploration, defense tech, and more.

访问getvcx.com了解更多信息。

Visit getvcx.com for more info.

那就是 getvcx.com。

That's getvcx.com.

投资前请仔细考虑投资材料，包括目标、风险费用和支出。

Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risk charges, and expenses.

更多信息可在 getvcx.com 上的基金招募说明书里找到。

This and other information can be found in the Fund's Prospectus at getvcx.com.

这是一则付费赞助。

This is a paid sponsorship.

今天节目的支持来自 Framer。

Support for today's show comes from Framer.

假设你的市场团队想要一个新着陆页，设计团队做好原型后，本就任务繁重的工程部门回应说：好，我们会处理的。

Let's say your marketing team wants a new landing page, so the design team mocks it up and then your engineering department who's already got too much on their plate responds with, yeah, we'll get to it.

从初创企业到《财富》500 强企业，成千上万的企业选择使用 Framer 构建网站，因为在这里，更改只需几分钟而非数天就能完成，正是为了解决这个问题。

Thousands of businesses from early stage startups to Fortune five hundreds are choosing to build their sites in Framer where changes take minutes instead of days to solve this very problem.

Framer 是一款企业级无代码网站构建器，被 Perplexity 和 Miro 等公司的团队用来加速工作。

Framer's enterprise grade no code website builder used by teams at companies including Perplexity and Miro to move faster.

通过实时协作、功能完备的CMS系统（包含所有必要的SEO工具）以及集成A/B测试的高级分析功能，您的设计师和市场团队可以从第一天起就自主构建并最大化提升您的.com网站。

With real time collaboration, a robust CMS with everything you need for great SEO, and advanced analytics that include integrated AB testing, your designers and marketers are empowered to build and maximize your .com from day one.

无论您是想推出新网站、测试几个着陆页，还是迁移整个.com网站，Framer都为初创企业、成长型企业和大型企业提供了相应方案，让从创意到上线的过程尽可能简单快捷。

So whether you wanna launch a new site, test a few landing pages, or migrate your full .com, Framer has programs for startups, scale ups, and large enterprises to make going from idea to live site as easy and as fast as possible.

了解如何从Framer专家那里获得更多关于提升您.com网站的建议，或立即免费开始构建，访问Framer.com/markets，享受Framer Pro年计划30%的折扣。

Learn how you can get more out of your .com from a Framer specialist or get started building for free today at Framer dot com slash markets for 30% off of Framer Pro annual plan.

访问Framer.com/markets，享受30%折扣。

That's framer.com/markets for 30% off.

Framer.com/markets。

Framer.com/markets.

规则和限制可能适用。

Rules and restrictions may apply.

我们继续回到Prof G Markets的节目。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

一旦你发动战争，就会出现巨大的不确定性因素，比如最坏的情况——陷入恶性循环，最终导致有人引爆核弹。

Anytime you start a war, there's an enormous x factor, including, you know, the worst case scenario, a downward spiral that results in somebody detonating a nuclear bomb.

我的意思是，现实是敌人在这个问题上有发言权，而你无法预测他们会做什么。

I mean, that there's just because the reality is the enemy gets a voice in this, and you can't predict what they're gonna do.

所有的准则都会被抛诸脑后。

All norms kinda go out the door.

那是什么？

What is it?

战争就是在所有外交努力失败后的谈判。

War is is negotiation when all diplomatic efforts have failed.

所以，你当然可以提出这些论点，却依然决定不介入科索沃去解放人民，不组建多国部队去科威特驱逐萨达姆，不重蹈一战后的覆辙——那时我们除了大量伤残的美国人外一无所获，也不去和希特勒达成协议。

So there but, also, you could make these arguments and never decide to go into Kosovo and liberate people, to not create a multilateral force and go into Kuwait and push out Hussein, to not to not fight their war again after we got nothing from World War one but a bunch of injured and maimed Americans and to strike a deal with Hitler.

而且，你知道，当时有一个规模庞大的运动。

And, you know, there was a very large movement.

当时美国最大的英雄是查尔斯·林德伯格，而不是埃隆·马斯克，他坚决反对参战。

The biggest hero, the Elon Musk, the biggest hero in thirties America was Charles Lindbergh, who was who was absolutely against it.

当时存在着一股强大的反战力量。

There was a huge anti war.

基本上，许多人指责罗斯福欺骗美国公众，试图向欧洲运送军火。

Basically, a lot of people accused FDR of lying to the American public to try and send armaments to Europe.

因此，总有人会理性地论证，任何战争或冲突都可能带来末日。

So there is always a a thoughtful and reasoned argument around how any war or any conflict could result in Armageddon.

我明白。

I get it.

我会说，这是我的预测。

I would argue that and this is my prediction.

一年后，石油价格将低于这场冲突或战争开始时的水平。

Oil in a year from now will be less expensive than it was at the beginning of this conflict or war.

我们就称之为战争吧。

Let's call it a war.

如果一切顺利，如果我们能找到方法确保乌克兰战争结束，并让他们获得一定程度的安全感，我认为由于技术、无人机和监视技术的外溢效应，大量投资将涌入乌克兰，乌克兰经济必将迎来繁荣。

And that the biggest opportunities from an investment standpoint, if things go right, if we can figure out a way to ensure that if the war in Ukraine comes to an end and we can figure out a way to ensure that they have some reasonable sense of security, I think the amount of investment that's gonna pour into Ukraine because of the spillover of technology and drones and surveillance technology, I think the Ukrainian economy is absolutely gonna boom.

但关键在于，我们必须确保至少帮助他们赢得战争，拥有足够的谈判筹码，以防止我们只是推迟了下一场战争，而不是真正阻止它。

But the key will be to make sure that we're we help them at least win the war, have enough negotiating power such that we're not we're preventing the next war, just not scheduling it.

如果我们真的能找到一种方法，使伊朗军队的发射能力、在霍尔木兹海峡布雷的能力以及浓缩铀的能力都大幅削弱。

If we, in fact, can figure out a way, if the Iranian military is diminished to the point in their launch capabilities, their ability to lay mines in the Straits Of Hormuz, their ability to enrich uranium.

如果这一切都被彻底中和，我认为中东会更安全。

If all of that is absolutely neutered, I think The Middle East is safer.

如果我们能够——这是乐观者的观点——让我们来看看乔什·布朗怎么说，哪些事情可能会变好。

If we can and this is the optimist viewpoint, and let's go to what Josh Brown says, what could go right.

如果我们甚至不需要一个亲西方的政府或执政党，而是一个拥抱技术、可能与以色列实现关系正常化的中立政府，而以色列拥有大量技术，同时与欧洲和美国保持足够中立的关系，以改善石油基础设施和技术，我认为伊朗经济将迎来繁荣。

If we got not even get a pro West government or ruling party, but a neutral one that embraces technology, maybe normalizes relationship relations with Israel, which has a lot of technology, normalizes or has enough a neutral enough relationship with Europe and The US to get better oil infrastructure and technology, I think you're gonna see an economic boom in Iran.

我认为，私募股权人士会突然纷纷飞抵伊朗，德黑兰会出现一家四季酒店，他们正试图寻找投资机会。

I think the the private equity guys will all of a sudden be flying in there'll be a Four Seasons in Tehran where they're they're trying to figure out a way to invest.

所以很多时候，我们来看看第二次世界大战。

So a lot of times look at World War two.

在那半个世纪里，哪两个经济体最具生产力？

What have been the two most productive economies the last half of that century?

德国和日本，但这些只是少数例外。

Germany and Japan, but but those are the exceptions to the rule kind of here.

如果我们谈论政权更迭，以及美国的介入，这些曾经是成功的案例。

If we're talking regime change and if we're talking US involvement, like, those were success stories.

你觉得委内瑞拉经济两年后会比两年前更好，还是更差？

Do you think the Venezuelan economy is gonna be better two years from now or two years or two years back?

我认为这是一个非常开放的问题。

I think it's a very open question.

我觉得现在这么说也合理。

I think right now Fair enough.

我认为目前有一些人支持美国，而且正如你提到的，在德黑兰和伊朗，有些人支持美国的立场，因为他们长期受到压迫。

I think right now, there is some support for The US, and I think that there is, as you mentioned, in Tehran and Iran, there is support for the American cause because they have been so oppressed.

但我的想法是，我觉得我们以前看过这部电影。

But, I mean, my mind just go I feel like we've seen this movie before.

我们在伊拉克就见过类似的情况，当时也曾有一些人支持美国。

We saw this in Iraq where there was also some support for The US.

但接下来的几年里，局势变得极度不稳，突然之间，所有人都觉得：其实我们希望这些人别来才好。

And then there was so much instability over the next few years that suddenly everyone decided to go, actually, we wish these guys didn't come in here.

他们是对是错，我不做评判，留给他们自己去决定。

Whether or whether they're they're right or wrong, I'm not I'll leave that up to them.

但现实是，入侵发生一年后，伊拉克人内部意见分歧很大。

But the reality is, you know, when the a year after the invasion happened, the Iraqis were pretty split.

三年后，所有人都认为美国成了敌人。

And then three years later, all of them decided that that America was the enemy.

到目前为止，这是本世纪最糟糕的地缘政治错误：乔治·布什欺骗了我们，并让中情局局长和陆军元帅鲍威尔声称伊拉克拥有大规模杀伤性武器。

So far, that was the worst geopolitical mistake of this century, was George Bush lying to us and getting propping up as CI director and and general Powell to say there are weapons of mass destruction.

实际上根本没有。

There wasn't.

他本人根本没有这样的计划。

He wasn't he he himself didn't have plans.

与伊朗不同，伊拉克的组织原则并不是‘打倒以色列’和‘打倒美国’。

His the organizing principle of an Iraq, unlike Iran, wasn't death to Israel and death to America.

但我会这样总结它。

But this is how I would summarize it.

他们这么做的原因和目的，我认为，如果特朗普去国会的话，他可能会寻求使用武力的授权。

The why and what they're doing, I think I think that Trump would have had potentially had he gone to congress, He would have gone for an authorization of the use of military force.

他们从未获得过宣战声明。

They never get a declaration of war.

我认为他可能获得也可能没获得，但他必须这么做，因为这迫使他必须说：哦，这是一种防御姿态。

And I think he may have gotten or may not, but he needed to do that because what it forced him to do was to say, oh, this is a defensive posture.

那为什么说是防御呢？

Well, why is it defensive?

因为他们即将遭到攻击，一旦被攻击，他们就会反击我们。

Because they were about to be attacked, and if they were attacked, they would attack us back.

明白了。

Okay.

所以你是说，现在以色列在主导军事和美国的政策？

So you're you're saying that Israel is now running the military and and US policy?

这里的事情是什么、为什么以及为什么现在发生，我认为都有合理的依据。

The what and the why here and why now, I think have real rational justification.

问题是，没人信任那个负责执行的人，担心他会搞砸，甚至适得其反。

The problem is no one trusts the guy that's driving the bus to execute it correctly and that it could backfire.

因为如果我们沟通失误、执行不力，说实话，我现在觉得每个人都只想让这场战争赶紧结束。

Because if our messaging is wrong, if we don't execute well, if we, I mean, right now, quite frankly, I believe everyone just wants this war to be over.

我认为我们现在最糟糕的做法，就是找一堆空洞的借口，仓促撤退。

I think the worst thing we could do right now is make a bunch of hollow excuses for pulling up stakes and leaving.

那下次我们想采取军事行动时，该怎么办？

Because what's the next time we wanna take military action?

这个国家只是把导弹对准邻国，然后说：等等四五天，再雇一堆水军在社交媒体上攻击总统。

The nation just points its missiles at its neighbors and says, wait four or five days and hire a bunch of troll farms to piss on the president on social media.

俄罗斯方面，我不说他们有多了不起，但他们已经损失了一百万人，花了四年时间，却寸土未进。

Russia to their I won't say to their credit, but Russia has lost a million people and has spent four years and has not moved an inch.

与此同时，西班牙连一只脚都不会踏进战场。

Meanwhile, Spain won't put a single fucking boot on the ground.

我不愿这么说，但这其实又回到了那位我忘了名字的先生——Mashiyoshi先生说过的一个明智观点。

And I hate to say this, but it kinda goes back to what the one smart thing that I forget the guy, Mashiyoshi san said.

你更不愿意和哪种人打架？

Who would you rather be less rather be in a fight with?

是和一个特别聪明的人，还是和一个疯子？

Someone who's really smart or someone who's fucking crazy?

现实是，如果西方现在撤出，我明白，当初介入伊朗本身就缺乏合法性，你在宣战时缺乏正当性，而这确实是一场战争。

And the reality is the West if the West leaves right now and I I I understand that there was no legitimacy going into Iran, that they lacked he lacked the legitimacy when you declare war, and this is war.

你本应获得国会批准，让美国公众通过他们的代表对此进行投票。

You are supposed to get congressional approval and let The US public have a vote in this vis a vis their representatives.

如果你以多国部队的身份介入，合法性会更强。

And you have more legitimacy going in if you go in with a multinational force.

但他没有这么做。

He did not do that.

左右两派的人都很愤怒。

People on the left and right are pissed off.

顺便说一下，他大约获得了72%到77%的共和党人支持，但只有17%的民主党人支持。

By the way, he's got about, I think, it's 72 or 77 support of Republicans, 17% of Democrats.

这完全体现了深刻的政治分歧。

This has everything is a dramatic political divide.

更可能成为更好测试标准的是独立性，而它的支持率只有大约32%。

The more probably better litmus test is independence, and it's only got about 32% support.

但再说一次，我认为这又是一个数据点，表明自由世界的领袖不知道如何以负责任、安全的方式分配资源。

But, again, I go to this is another data point that the leader of the free world does not know how to allocate resources in a responsible, safe way.

如果他能明确列出非常清晰、可衡量的目标，组建包括欧洲国家和海湾国家在内的多国部队，并前往国会，向相关人士进行简报，他本可以提出一个非常有力的理由来说明这为何是个好主意。

I think he could have made a very solid argument for why this was a good idea if he'd outlined objectives that were very straightforward, measurable, had a multilateral force, including European nations and Gulf nations, gone to congress, briefed the right people.

如果国会没有通过投票，那他就不该行动，因为这是一场战争。

And if congress if he didn't get the votes, then he shouldn't do it because this is war.

这并不是一种防御性行动，那种情况下他有权迅速采取行动。

This isn't an this isn't a defensive act where he's understandably given the rights to move quickly.

所以，在我看来，这已经不再是关于这件事是否该做的问题了。

So this isn't in my opinion, this has moved from whether or not this was the right thing to do.

关键是，这又是一个数据点，表明我们面前的是一位专制者，他从不深思熟虑，只根据他最后交谈的人的建议行事——无论是卢比奥国务卿还是内塔尼亚胡，都在以非常不负责任、危险的方式动用我们的资源，让全世界都惊呼：天哪。

The bottom line is this is another data point where we think we have an autocrat who does not think things through, who acts based on the last person he spoke to, whether it was secretary Rubio or Bibi Netanyahu, and is allocating our resources in a very irresponsible, dangerous way, and has the whole world going, Jesus Christ.

现在我们被要求害怕的敲门声，原本应该是好人来的。

The knock at the door now that we're supposed to be scared of was supposed to be the good guys.

现在他们成了那个敲门的人。

Now they're the knock at the door.

有一件事我不太认同你的观点，就是你说他们的表态——比如，他们明确表示，这是内塔尼亚胡的决定。

The the one thing I don't I'm not sure I'm aligned with you on is when you say that their messaging I mean, as the as the example, they come out and they say in so many words, this was Netanyahu's decision.

是他把我们拖入这场危机的。

He brought us into this.

这基本上就是卢比奥的说法。

That's what Rubio basically says.

这是他们说过最愚蠢的话，而这可是个很高的标准。

That is the stupidest thing they have, and this is not this is a high bar.

这绝对是他们能说出的最愚蠢、最具破坏性的话。

That is absolutely the stupidest, most damaging thing they could have said.

但如果这是真的呢？

But what if it's true?

我的意思是，如果这是个沟通问题，也就是说，如果他们把解释搞砸了，那是一回事。

Like, I mean, if it's a messaging prob I mean, if it's they they flubbed their explanation, that's one thing.

所以你觉得内塔尼亚胡和APAC实际上在控制总统，决定我们在哪里、何时宣战吗？

So you think that that Netanyahu and APAC are effectively controlling the president and deciding what if and where we we we we declare war?

我觉得鲁比奥说的那番话，我觉得可能是真的，那就是内塔尼亚胡说：我们要进去了。

I think that what Rubio said, I could see as being true, which is that Netanyahu said, we're going in.

加入我们，或者不加入。

Join us or not.

然后美国决定加入我们。

And then America decided to join us.

我不认为美国会这么容易被吓住。

I don't think America scares that easily.

我甚至不觉得特朗普会这样。

I I don't even Trump.

我认为更可能的情况是，当这种事情发生时，我们直到那些录音最终公开才会知道真相，而真相就像被困在水下的氧气。

I don't think that I think it more likely when something like this, and we won't know until, you know, those tapes are eventually, the truth is like oxygen trapped underwater.

在某个时刻，会发生一次轻微的地震，氧气最终将真相带到表面。

At some point, there's a bit of an earthquake and the oxygen reaches the truth reaches the surface.

我认为更可能发生的情况是，他尊重内塔尼亚胡，而内塔尼亚胡可能是多个建议者之一，告诉他：这可能会成为你的遗产。

I think what more likely happened, I think he respects Netanyahu, and Netanyahu was one of probably several voices saying, this could be your legacy.

通过这一大胆的领导行动，你可以利用美国军队——世界上表现最出色的组织——所掌握的惊人资源，解锁中东前所未有的和平、繁荣与稳定。

You could unlock, vis a vis this incredible resource in the best performing organization in the world, the US military, you could unlock unprecedented peace, prosperity, and stability in The Middle East with this bold leadership action.

而且，附赠的‘免费礼品’呢，你懂的，就是你能把埃普斯坦的新闻从头条压下去几周。

And, oh, the free gift which with purchase, wink wink, is p you're gonna push Epstein out of the news for for a few weeks.

但我就是不信，我对这种说法感到不安：它似乎在迎合一种刻板印象，即美国2%的犹太人口 somehow 控制着美国政府。

But I don't I just do not buy, and I'm uncomfortable with the notion that I feel kinda plays into this trope that 2% of the population in The US that is Jewish is somehow controlling, you know, the the the US government.

同意。

Agreed.

我并不怀疑特朗普会听从内塔尼亚胡并尊重他，但这是特朗普自己的决定，而不是被迫的；如果他们说‘我们要进去了，不管你同不同意’，那也完全没问题。

I don't doubt that I don't doubt that Trump listens to Netanyahu and and respects him, but this was Trump's decision not and if they said we're going in with or without you, they could have fine.

他们并不害怕这么做。

They're not afraid to do that.

自10月7日以来，一个清晰的事实是，以色列是中东的超级大国。

What what's become clear since October 7 is that Israel is the superpower in The Middle East.

是的。

Yeah.

他们确实是，我的意思是，如果我们看看我们之前讨论的地缘政治灾难。

That they are I mean, if you look at we talked about geopolitical disasters.

伊拉克，一场灾难。

Iraq, disaster.

彻底的灾难。

Total fucking disaster.

并引发了一场幻觉，这种幻觉伤害了你们这一代人，可以归结为以下几点。

And set off a hallucination that has damaged your generation that can be distilled down to the following.

嘿，大家。

Oh, hey, everybody.

嘿，老人们。

Hey, old people.

我们可以减税并发动战争。

We can cut your taxes and go to war.

因为猜猜怎么着？

Because guess what?

由于上一代人的责任感和领导力，我们积累了巨大的信任，因此拥有庞大的借贷能力。

We have so much built up trust because of previous generation's responsibility and leadership that we have massive borrowing capacity.

没错。

Exactly.

从乔治·华盛顿到乔治·布什，赤字高达7万亿美元。

George Washington to George Bush, 7,000,000,000,000 in deficits.

从乔治·布什到唐纳德·特朗普，又增加了30万亿美元的赤字。

George Bush to Donald Trump, another 30,000,000,000,000 in deficits.

对吧？

Right?

所以这是一个巨大的错误。

So that was a huge mistake.

第二个重大的地缘政治错误，甚至可能已经超越了的是10月7日。

The second biggest geopolitical mistake and may have surpassed was October 7.

如果有人告诉辛瓦尔和霍梅尼，你们俩都会死，阿萨德会在莫斯科打电子游戏，而真主党——这个所谓的强大武装力量——将被解除武装。

If someone had told Sinwar and Khomeini, you're both gonna be dead, and Assad is gonna be playing video games in Moscow, and Hezbollah, the supposedly great fighting force, is gonna be neutered.

也门的胡塞武装基本上只会成为令人烦扰的存在，而不再是真正的力量。

The the Houthis in Yemen are gonna have are basically gonna be just bothersome, but not a real force.

伊朗甚至无法控制自己的领空。

And Iran is not even gonna have control over its own skies.

而叙利亚现在由一些人掌控，我的意思是，这是最大的错误。

And Syria is now run by some I mean, this was the biggest mistake.

我们犯下了本世纪迄今为止第二大错误，或者说是最大的错误。

We made the second biggest mistake or biggest mistake so far of the century.

我认为辛瓦尔和伊朗——坦白说，是伊朗——犯下了最大的错误。

I think Sinwar and Iran, and let's be honest, it was Iran, made the biggest mistake.

再让我总结一下这一切。

Again, let me just wrap all this up.

市场对此有何反应？

How are the markets responding?

他们认为这只是短期现象，并且会被控制在有限范围内。

They believe this is short term and gonna be ring fenced.

总有一个未知因素，因为对手也有发言权。

There is always an x factor because the enemy has a say in it.

我认为这里最大的错误是，如果特朗普能明确阐述为何要这么做、为何现在做、为何这是当前的机遇，并且任命一位头脑清醒、能力更强的战争部长，他本可以提出非常有力的论点。

I do believe that the biggest mistake here, I think that Trump could have made a very strong argument for why to do this, why now, why it's an opportunity right now if he'd set very clear objectives, and quite frankly, a secretary of war that didn't have his head up his ass and was a little bit more competent.

我们已经严重偏离了市场。

We are veered so far from the markets.

把真正的美国拉回来，埃德。

Real us back in, Ed.

把真正的美国拉回来。

Real us back in.

我们确实偏离得很远，但我认为这一切都是相关的。

We have veered far, but I do think that it all relates.

这就是问题所在。

That's the problem.

我们正在试图为如此巨大的不确定性定价。

It's we're we're trying to price massive levels of uncertainty here.

这正是市场此时应该做的事情。

That is what the market's job is to do at this point.

所以这就是问题所在。

And so that is the question.

他们认为我们没问题。

They believe we're we're okay.

那么我想问的是，如果你是投资者，你同意这一点吗？

And then I guess the question is, if you're an investor, do you agree with that?

我认为这有相当合理的论据，同时我也认为另一方也有不少合理的论据。

And I think there's a decent argument for that, and I also think there are some decent arguments on the other side as well.

那我们来打个赌吧，顺便做个时间戳。

Well, let's let's make a bet here, and let's time stamp it.

我一直在说我们来做个时间戳吧，但我们的制作团队根本不听我的。

And I keep saying let's time stamp it, and our producers don't listen to me.

一年后，你觉得油价会比现在高还是低？

In a year, do you think oil is gonna be higher or lower than it is now?

我觉得可能会更低。

I think it will probably be lower.

我觉得我同意你的看法。

I think I agree with you.

但我对这个观点的确定性非常低。

But my certainty rating on that is very low.

这不是我会下重注的赌注，因为我对此没有太多信心。

I that's not a bet that I'm willing to put a lot of money on because I don't feel much conviction in it.

但如果非得逼我选，我会同意你的观点。

But if I had to, gun to my head, I would agree with you.

油价会下跌。

Oil goes lower.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

如需获取更多市场内容，请前往 profgmarkets.com/subscribe 订阅我们的通讯。

And for even more markets content, sign up for our newsletter at profgmarkets.com/ subscribe.

本节目由 Vanta 赞助。

Support for the show comes from Vanta.

如果您是企业主，可能已经注意到风险和监管都在增加，客户为了开展业务，也要求提供安全证明。

If you're a business owner, you may have noticed that both risk and regulation are ramping up, and customers expect proof of security just to do business.

向客户和潜在客户展示信任对于促成交易至关重要，但这可能成本高昂、耗时且复杂。

And demonstrating trust to customers and prospects is critical to closing deals, but it can also be costly, time intensive, and complex.

Vanta 表示，他们正是为此而生。

Vanta says that's where they come in.

Vanta 通过一个基于人工智能的平台，自动化您的合规流程，将合规、风险与客户信任整合在一起。

Vanta automates your compliance process to bring compliance risk and customer trust together on one AI powered platform.

他们自动化了实现和维护超过 35 个合规与隐私框架的过程，包括 SOC 2、ISO 27001 和 HIPAA。

They automate the process of achieving and maintaining compliance with over 35 and privacy frameworks, including SOC two, ISO two seven zero zero one, and HIPAA.

这帮助公司快速实现合规并持续保持合规，开启更高层次的增长机会，并释放宝贵的时间。

This helps companies get compliant fast and remain compliant, opening doors to next level growth opportunities and freeing up valuable time.

Vanta 不仅帮助你完成合规检查，更能帮助你大规模建立真正的信任。

And Vanta doesn't just help you check boxes, it helps you build real trust at scale.

通过持续监控、实时报告和可立即共享的安全审查，Vanta 让你轻松向客户、合作伙伴和投资者证明你的安全状况。

With continuous monitoring, real time reporting, and security reviews you can share instantly, Vanta makes it easy to prove your security posture to customers, partners, and investors.

因此，你不再需要为审计和电子表格手忙脚乱，而是拥有一套在后台运行的系统，持续保障合规、降低风险，并让你的业务更有信心地加速发展。

So instead of scrambling for audits and spreadsheets, you get a system that works in the background, keeping you compliant, reducing risk, and helping your business move faster with confidence.

你可以前往 mana.com/markets 开始使用。

You can get started at mana.com/markets.

这是 vanta.com/markets。

That's vanta.com/markets.

Fanta.com/markets。

Fanta.com/markets.

本节目由 Public 赞助，Public 是为那些认真对待投资的人打造的投资平台。

Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously on Public.

你可以构建一个包含股票、债券和期权的多资产投资组合，以及现在新增的生成式资产，它能让你借助人工智能将任何想法转化为可投资的指数。

You can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, and options, and now generated assets, which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI.

这一切都始于你的提示，例如：寻找具有高自由现金流的可再生能源公司，或年收入增长率超过20%的半导体供应商。

It all starts with your prompt from renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% a year over year.

你可以直接输入任何提示，让人工智能为你工作。

You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work.

它会筛选成千上万只股票，构建一个独一无二的指数，并让你将其与标普500指数进行回测，然后只需点击几下即可投资。

It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index, and lets you backtest it against the S and P 500, then you can invest in a few clicks.

生成式资产就像拥有无限可能的ETF，完全可定制，基于你的投资观点，而非他人的观点。

Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's.

前往 public.com/profg，在转移你的投资组合时可获得无上限的1%奖励。

Go to public.com/profg and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio.

那就是 public.com/profg。

That's public.com/profg.

本节目由Public投资平台赞助，经纪服务由Open to the Public Investing Inc提供，系FINRA和SIPC会员；投资咨询由Public Advisors LLC提供，系美国证券交易委员会注册投资顾问。

Paid for by Public Investing, brokered services by Open to the Public Investing Inc, member of FINRA and SIPC advisory services by Public Advisors LLC, SEC registered adviser.

生成资产是一种交互式分析工具的输出结果。

Generated assets is an interactive analysis tool output.

仅供信息参考，不构成投资建议或推荐。

It's for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice.

完整披露信息请访问 public.com/disclosures。

Complete disclosures available at public.com/disclosures.

本节目由 SoFi 赞助。

Support for the show comes from SoFi.

坦白说吧。

Let's face it.

学生贷款正在拖慢你的财务目标。

Student loans are slowing down your financial goals.

是时候采取更聪明的策略了。

It's time for a smarter strategy.

这就是 SoFi 的用武之地。

That's where SoFi comes in.

SoFi 通过提供灵活的还款期限选项，帮助您应对学生贷款债务。

SoFi is helping you tackle student debt by refinancing your loans with flexible term options.

我们说的是，您可能在整个贷款期内节省数千美元，或者降低每月还款额，从而将这些钱用于储蓄买房或构建投资组合。

We're talking about potentially saving thousands of dollars over the life of your loan, or you could lower your monthly payments so you can put that money towards things like saving for a home or building an investment portfolio.

目前，通过 SoFi 的优惠，您可获得低至 4.24% 年利率的固定利率。

Right now, you can get fixed rates starting as low as 4.24% APR with SoFi's discounts.

最棒的是，没有任何提前还款罚金或额外费用。

And the best part, There are no penalties or fees required.

只需两分钟，您就可以查询 SoFi 的利率，而且查询不会影响您的信用评分。

It takes just two minutes to check your rate with SoFi, and checking your rate won't affect your credit score at all.

他们已经帮助超过 58 万名会员，对超过 500 亿美元的学生贷款进行了再融资。

They've already helped over 580,000 members refinance more than 50,000,000,000 in student loans.

访问 sofi.com/markets，查看您能节省多少。

Visit sofi.com/markets to see how much you could save.

前往 sofi.com/markets，用 SoFi 开启更明智的财务决策。

That's sofi.com/markets and start making smarter money moves with SoFi.

SoFi学生贷款由SoFi银行（NA）发放，该银行为FDIC成员。

SoFi student loans are originated by SoFi Bank, NA member FDIC.

其他条款和条件适用。

Additional terms and conditions apply.

NMLS编号：696891。

NMLS six nine six eight nine one.

我们回来了，欢迎收看Prof G Markets。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

上个月，我们以为Anthropic的超级碗广告将是它的高光时刻。

Last month, we thought Anthropic Super Bowl ad was going to be its big moment.

这则广告走红，在X平台上不到24小时就获得了近500万次观看，但随后热度逐渐消退。

The ad went viral, racking up nearly 5,000,000 views on X in under twenty four hours, but the buzz then faded.

而现在，真正的重要时刻可能已经到来。

And now the real big moment may have actually arrived.

今年二月，Anthropic拒绝了一项价值2亿美元的国防部合同。

At the February, Anthropic rejected a $200,000,000 Pentagon contract.

该公司拒绝允许其技术用于监视美国公民或自主军事打击。

The company refused to allow its technology to be used for surveillance of US citizens or autonomous military strikes.

特朗普迅速将他们列入黑名单，数小时后，OpenAI 接下了这份合同。

Trump swiftly blacklisted them, and hours later, OpenAI picked up the contract.

但采取这一立场似乎为 Anthropic 带来了回报。

But taking that stand appears to have paid off for Anthropic.

Claude 登顶 App Store 首位，Anthropic 的企业市场份额上升至 32%，超越了 OpenAI。

Claude climbed to number one in the App Store, and Anthropic's enterprise market share rose to 32 overtaking OpenAI.

与此同时，据报道，在其与五角大楼交易的消息曝光后，ChatGPT 在美国的卸载率飙升了近 300%。

Meanwhile, ChatGPT's uninstall rate in The US reportedly jumps nearly 300% after news of its Pentagon deal broke.

现在的问题是，Anthropic 真正愿意划出多强硬的底线？

Now the question will be, how hard of a line is Anthropic actually willing to draw?

看起来该公司现在已重新与五角大楼展开谈判，寻求一种折中方案，使政府能够继续使用其技术。

Looks like the company is now back in negotiations with the Pentagon seeking a compromise that would enable the government to keep using its technology.

这也将防止 Anthropic 被排除在军事供应链之外。

It would also prevent Anthropic from being excluded from the military supply chain.

所以，斯科特，我觉得这非常有趣，因为这回溯到你很久以前谈到关税问题时说过的话，当时你说，实际上，如果你是一家大型上市公司的领导者，很多公司都害怕对特朗普说任何负面言论，或与他对抗，或以任何方式表示不同意。

So, Scott, I think this is very interesting because this goes back to something that you were saying a long time ago when tariffs were unfolding, where you said, actually, if you're the leader of a large public company, a lot of them were very scared to say anything bad about Trump or to stand up to him or to disagree with him in any way.

而你当时指出，这实际上可能对你有利。

And you made the point, actually, this could be good for you.

在

In

在商学院，我们有伦理课、领导力课和可持续发展课。

business school, we have we have ethics, we have leadership, and we have sustainability courses.

每门课的费用都是7000美元。

And they each cost every course cost $7,000.

让我帮你省下21000美元。

Let me save you $21,000.

伦理。

Ethics.

想想对与错。

Think about right and wrong.

好的。

Okay.

这就是伦理课。

That's the ethics course.

领导力。

Leadership.

即使困难也要做正确的事。

Do the right thing even when it's hard.

搞定。

Boom.

领导力课程结束。

You're done with leadership.

至于可持续发展，就是思考做正确的事，即使非常困难也要坚持，你可能会从中获利。

And the sustainability, thinking about doing the right thing, doing the right thing when it's really hard, you might make money out of it.

搞定。

Boom.

你完成了。

You're done.

我刚刚帮你省了21,000美元。

I just saved you $21,000.

当你不为我们的优秀盟友和其他公司发声，而只为你自己的公司发声时，等着瞧吧，各位。

When you don't speak out on behalf of our wonderful allies and other companies and speak out on behalf of your own company, just wait, folks.

从长远来看，你不发声真的非常不利。

In the long run, it's just really bad for you not speaking out.

现在有人在达里奥·阿马德尝试过了，他敢于对抗总统。

Someone's now tried it in Dario Amade who stood up to the president.

结果怎么样？

And what happens?

Anthropic和Claude的安装率飙升，实际上，他们的收入、年经常性收入在两周内从140亿美元增长到190亿美元，增幅达36%。

Install rates of Anthropic and of Claude skyrocket, and, actually, their revenue, their ARR went from $14,000,000,000 to $19,000,000,000 in two weeks, which is a 36% increase.

这简直难以置信。

It's just unbelievable.

所以看起来他们实际上证明了你的观点，但让我们听听你对Anthropic、特朗普、五角大楼和OpenAI之间发生的事情的反应。

So it seems that they have actually proven your point here, but let's get your reactions to what's happening between Anthropic and Trump and the Pentagon and OpenAI.

他是第一个说‘不’的首席执行官，而且他完全正确。

He's the first CEO who said no, and he's absolutely right.

Anderell制造武器，让政府能够杀人。

Anderell builds weapons so the government can kill people.

硅谷的‘觉醒’意识形态就是不行。

The Silicon Valley Wokester ethos was no.

我们会在午餐时罢工，因为我们不喜欢谷歌与国防部门合作。

We're gonna walk out during lunch because we don't like Google working with the defense department.

那你做得很好。

Well, good for you.

这下可让他们长记性了，你这个小觉醒婊子。

That's that'll show them, you little woke bitch.

与此同时，他们回到食堂，吃着你的寿司，对着大西洋哭泣。

Meanwhile, they go back to the cafeteria and get your sushi and cry into your Atlantic.

不管怎样，他们有权这么做。

Anyways, they get to do that.

帕兰蒂尔如果想向以色列提供数据，只要获得安全许可，他们就可以这么做。

Palantir, if they want to provide data to Israel, long as they get security clearance, they're allowed to do that.

因为只要你遵守法律，你就有权在法律框架内运营，并受法律约束。

Because as long as you comply with the law, you get to operate within, you're entitled to and subject to the laws.

当五角大楼开始说不的时候。

When the Pentagon starts saying, no.

你必须这么做。

You gotta do this.

他说他竖起了中指。

And he said he stuck up the middle finger.

你猜怎么着？

And guess what?

我们支持这种做法。

We're here for it.

美国支持这一行动。

America's here for it.

正如我之前提到的，周日我们将前往明尼阿波利斯。

And, as I mentioned before, on Sunday, we're going to, Minneapolis.

我们一直有一个抵制退订的运动，揭露了许多公司被退订的情况。

We've had this resistant unsubscribe movement highlighting a bunch of companies unsubscribe from.

它的下一步发展如下。

The next evolution of it is the following.

我们将发布大量数据、信息和媒体内容，鼓励人们不使用并退订OpenAI，转而支持和使用Anthropic。

We're gonna try and put out a bunch of data and a bunch of messaging and a bunch of media encouraging people to not use and unsubscribe from OpenAI, but to subscribe and patronize Anthropic.

如果你相信公司有权在法律框架内运营，不应因总统或五角大楼的施压而被迫做他们不认同的事，那就注册Anthropic吧。

If you believe that companies have the right to operate under the laws and not and should not be subject to intimidation from the president or the Pentagon to do exactly what they want when they're not comfortable with it, then sign up for Anthropic.

他就是我们一直在等待的英雄。

He's the hero we were waiting for.

我们一直这么说，我己经说了六到九个月了。

And it's and we have been saying this for I've been saying this for six or nine months.

第一个敢站起来说‘去你的’的人，将抓住巨大的商业机会。

There's an enormous commercial opportunity for the first person who gets off their knees and says, fuck you.

我是美国人。

I'm an American.

这是一家美国公司。

This is an American company.

我们有权依据法律运营。

We get to we get to operate by the law.

我们有权决定与谁合作。

We get to we get to decide who we work with.

我们不能基于性取向行事。

We can't do it based on sexual orientation.

我们不能因为人们的性取向或种族而拒绝服务。

We can't not serve people because of their their sexual orientation or their race.

实际上，这并不准确。

Actually, that's not true.

现在我认为，最高法院已经裁定，你不必为同性婚礼制作蛋糕。

Now I I think the Supreme Court has decided you don't have to make a cake for someone if a gay wedding cake.

但无论如何，我的观点是，他终于抓住了过去六个月最大的商业机会，那就是站出来 saying, 你知道吗？

But, anyways, my point is he's the guy finally, someone took advantage of the biggest commercial opportunity of the last six months, and that is to stand up and say, you know what?

据我所知，身为美国人并在美国注册意味着我们必须严格遵守法治，同时也受到法治的保护，这意味着我们有权做出这些决定。

Is last I checked, being an American and being incorporated in America means we have to we absolutely have to operate by rule of law, but also we are protected by rule of law, meaning we get to make we get to make these decisions.

他表达得非常清晰。

And he's been articulate.

他立场非常坚定。

He's been forceful.

这涉及到我们大约三四个月前做出的另一个预测：一年内，Anthropic 的价值将超过 OpenAI，主要是因为我认为 OpenAI 的价值将会下降。

And this goes to another prediction we made, I think, about three, four months ago, that within a year, Anthropic would be worth more than OpenAI, mostly because I think OpenAI is going to decline in value.

这一点现在已经得到了证实。

It's been proven now.

我的意思是，我刚了解到一个惊人的数字：两周前，他们的年经常性收入（ARR）是140亿美元，而今天已经达到了190亿美元。

I mean, I just returned to this unbelievable number that their ARR, their annualized recurring revenue, two weeks ago was $14,000,000,000, and today it is $19,000,000,000.

我们眼前就有数据表明，正如你所说，从跪着变成站起来对抗总统，直接带来了50亿美元的收入机会，未来还可能增长更多。

Like, we literally have the data in front of us that getting off of your knees, as you say, standing up to the president literally translated into a $5,000,000,000 revenue opportunity, and who knows how much it'll increase in the future.

与此同时，看看这对他的最大竞争对手——OpenAI和萨姆·阿尔特曼——造成了多大的损害。

Meanwhile, look at the damage that it is levying on his greatest competitor, which is OpenAI and Sam Altman.

他们介入了。

They step in.

他们说，好吧。

They say, okay.

我们要拿下五角大楼的合同，结果卸载率直接飙升。

We're gonna take the the contract with the Pentagon, and suddenly the uninstall rate absolutely skyrockets.

一百五十万用户离开了ChatGPT。

One and a half million users leave ChatGPT.

接着，网上开始兴起一股趋势，标签是#取消GPT。

And then there's this movement online that starts to trend, hashtag cancel GPT.

所以我们正在实时见证这些证据的展开。

So we're watching the evidence play out in real time.

我认为另一件非常有趣的事情是，萨姆·阿尔特曼在公关和沟通方面每次都表现得一团糟。

And I think the other thing that is so interesting is how badly Sam Altman is fumbling the bag every time from a PR and communications perspective.

一个相当引人注目的事实是，一年前，有9%的美国人表示不喜欢萨姆·阿尔特曼。

Something that is quite striking, a year ago, 9% of Americans said they disliked Sam Altman.

这已经是一个相当大的数字了。

That's already a pretty big number.

而今天，这个数字已经上升到20%。

Today, that number is 20%.

因此，过去一年里，这个比例翻了一倍多。

So it has more than doubled in the past year.

你想想他所有做错的事情——比如对超级碗广告的回应、他在参议院听证会上极其尴尬的表现，还有他在吉米·法伦节目中的访谈，他试图表现得有趣、亲切、接地气，结果却显得非常笨拙，甚至在很多方面显得有点邪恶。

And you think about all the things that he's gotten wrong, obviously, response to that Super Bowl ad, his very awkward senate hearings, his very awkward interview on Jimmy Fallon where he tried to present as this fun, likable, relatable guy, ended up being quite awkward and and seeming quite honestly a little evil in a lot of ways.

但我认为，我们见过的他最糟糕的时刻发生在几周前。

But then I think the most accept the the the worst moment we've seen from him happened a couple weeks ago.

我想给你播放这段视频，听听你的反应，因为我觉得这可能是萨姆·阿尔特曼在公开场合说过的最糟糕的一句话。

And I just wanna play this clip for you, get your reaction, because I think this is probably the worst thing Sam Altman has ever said in a public forum.

人们经常谈论训练一个AI模型所需的能量，与人类进行一次推理查询所消耗的能量相比。

People talk about how much energy it takes to train an AI model relative to how much it costs a human to do one inference query.

但训练一个人也需要大量的能量。

But it also takes a lot of energy to train a human.

你需要耗费大约二十年的生命，以及这期间吃下的所有食物，才能变得聪明。

It takes, like, twenty years of life and all of the food you eat during that time before you get smart.

不仅如此，你的诞生还依赖于历史上曾经活过的百亿人漫长的进化过程——他们学会了不被掠食者吃掉，学会了探索科学等等，而你只是继承了这些成果。

And not only that, it took like the very widespread evolution of the 100,000,000,000 people that have ever lived and learned not to get eaten by predators and learned how to like figure out science and whatever to produce you, and then you took whatever you, you know, you took.

所以公平的比较应该是：当提出一个问题时，一个训练好的模型回答这个问题需要多少能量，与人类回答需要多少能量相比？

So the fair comparison is if you ask a question, how much energy does it take once its model is trained to answer that question versus a human?

从这种能量效率的角度来看，AI可能已经追平甚至超越了人类。

And probably AI has already caught up on an energy efficiency basis measured that way.

让我们听听你们的看法。

Let's get your reactions.

有些方式能折射出一个人的性格和灵魂，我有两个简单的观察标准：就是人们如何对待服务人员。

There are certain looking glasses into people's character and souls, and I've also two easy ones are how people treat service staff.

他们会不会直视对方的眼睛？

Do they look them in the eye?

他们对他们有耐心吗？

Are they patient with them?

他们给的小费大方吗？

Do they tip well?

还有他们如何对待自己的宠物。

And then also how they treat their pets.

我有个好朋友，我喜欢和他一起喝酒，但无论如何，到了正好11点，我可能会失去他这个酒友。

I have a close friend who I like to drink with, and no matter what, at exactly 11, and he I might lose him as a drinking buddy.

他会说：我得回家去放我的狗出来。

He's like, I gotta get home and get my dog out.

你看一个人如何对待宠物、如何对待服务人员，就能窥见他们的灵魂。

It just how you treat your pets and how you treat staff, looking glass in the people's soul.

还有很多其他方面。

And there's a lot of different things.

对吧？

Right?

这是一次难得的时刻，让我们窥见了萨姆·奥尔特曼的内心，他简直是个虚无主义者。

This was a rare moment when we had a bit of a looking glass into Sam Altman's soul, and he's a fucking nihilist.

他基本上在说，有理性理由去更多投资于非意识生命，因为意识生命需要太多资源。

He is basically saying there is a rational reason to invest more in non sentient beings because sentient beings require too many resources.

好吧，老板。

And it's like, well, alright, boss.

这意味着你是那个寻找 fucked all 的人，而不是想和人类建立关系，你根本不懂什么是真正的较量。

That means you're the guy who's looking for the fucked all and rather than having a human to have a relationship with, that you don't you really don't understand what the shooting match.

我们存在的理由，正是为了创造摩擦、资源、投资和关系，来培育可以与之建立关系的意识生命。

The reason we're here is to is to create friction and resources and investment and relationships and resources to create sentient beings we can have relationships with.

他竟然会这样想，这很不公平——当你想到养育一个孩子到具备智慧需要投入多少能量时，你却想着：‘嘿，我可以用更少的能量复制这个过程。’

And that he even thinks that way, that it's unfair when you think about the amount of energy we have to put into raising a child to get to the point where it's intelligent that, wait, I can replicate that with less energy.

仅仅是他会这样思考，就让人感觉非常可怕。

Just that just that he's thinking that way feels it feels quite frankly, it just feels frightening.

一个将权力和投资回报率置于情感、关系和意识之上的人。

Someone who sees power and ROI as besting emotion, relationships, and sentience.

不，市场和人工智能中的权力与投资回报率，其目的都是为了在没有焦虑的情况下释放更大的繁荣，让你能专注于那些耗能的小噩梦——也就是孩子。

And, no, power and ROI in the markets and AI are all meant to unlock greater prosperity in an absence of anxiety such that you can focus on those little energy consumptive nightmares called children.

这整个该死的意义就在于，我们做所有这些其他事情，是为了对这些孩子进行值得的投资。

That's the whole fucking point is that we do all this other stuff such that we can make the investments in these children that are worth it.

我觉得，这是一个从未充分感受过爱、未曾体验过养育孩子之真谛的人才会说出的话，他甚至可能认为机器人崛起是有道理的。

And I thought this is such a this is such a a statement from someone who has not had enough love in his life or hasn't experienced what it's like to raise children and genuinely sees maybe a legitimacy of the rise of the robots.

这有点像彼得·蒂尔那种荒谬的虚无主义，把投资回报率当作终极目标。

It's kind of this Peter Thiel nihilism weirdness that would they just look at stuff as as ROI being the endgame.

不。

No.

我们追求投资回报率，是为了能浪费时间与金钱，对我们的孩子进行低效但充满爱的投资——埃德，我至今还没从孩子身上收回一分钱。

The reason why we pursue ROI is such that we can waste time and money and be very inefficient with the investments we make in our I still haven't got my money back on my children, Ed.

我不确定我这辈子会不会收回。

I'm not sure I'm ever going to.

我几乎每次计算投资回报率时都会对我孩子说这句话。

And almost every calculation of ROI I say this to my kids all the time.

我会跟他们谈如何成为一个男人，谈剩余价值，然后说：你现在是负剩余价值。

I'm like I talk to them about becoming a man and the idea of surplus value, and I'm like, you're surplus negative right now.

学校花在你身上的钱，远远超过你回馈的。

I'm like, the the school is spending way more than you're giving back.

我们给你的爱，远比你给我们的多。

We give you so much more love than you give us.

我简直不知道你知不知道我为你花了多少钱。

I can't I'm like, do you know how much I'm spending on you?

我儿子一直在卖宝可梦卡片，我就说：好吧。

Like, my son's been selling Pokemon cards, and I'm like, okay.

把那些钱还给我。

Give that to me back.

我逼刚上大学的儿子算清楚，我需要赚多少税前收入，才能让他加入兄弟会和姐妹会，还能和里士满的女生约会。

I've forced my kid who just got into college to go through and tell me how much I will have to make pretax such that he can join a fraternity and sorority and, you know, and and and make out with girls from, you know, from Richmond, Virginia.

负的，负的价值。

Negative, negative value.

但这就是关键所在。

But this is the whole point.

人性或为人父母的全部意义就在于，你做出这些投资，因为这才是你投身于使命的地方。

The whole point of humanity or being a parent is that you make these investments because that's where you give in to purpose.

最忠诚的美国人和最满足的美国人中，有很多是退伍军人。

That's where you give in to the most loyal Americans and some of the most satisfied Americans are veterans.

他们永远不会从服役和与家人分离中获得实际回报，但这种付出赋予了他们意义——你能够放弃自己的资源和情感，投入到某件事中，明明知道在有形的、实际的层面上，你永远不会看到回报。

They will never get an actual return on their service and being away from their families, but it gives them purpose that they're able to invest in something, that you're able to give up your resources and your emotions and invest in something, realizing on a tangible anodyne level, you'll never see a return.

你得到的是知道自己创造了价值。

What you get back is knowing that you added value.

我觉得说得很好。

I think that's well said.

我认为这对我们来说是一个非常重要且令人担忧的问题。

I think that it is a very significant concerning question for us.

我的意思是，面对未来科技的领导者和构建者似乎对生命的意义、我们存在的目的、以及人类本质究竟为何存在根本性的误解，我们该怎么办？

I mean, what do we do about the fact that the leaders and the builders of the technology of tomorrow appear to have a genuine fundamental misunderstanding of the point of life, of the point of why we're all here, what existence and humanity is actually all about.

我的意思是，这对我们的意义是什么？

I mean, what does that mean for us?

我完全同意你的观点。

I totally agree with you.

我认为萨姆·阿尔特曼在那里看透了他的内心。

I think Sam Altman saw into his soul there.

他根本不理解这些事情。

He does not have an understanding of these things.

他不懂得目的的意义。

He doesn't have an understanding of purpose.

我认为那句话已经说尽了一切。

And I think that quote said it all.

现在问题是，达里·阿马德，他似乎又开始与五角大楼进行会谈了。

Now the question's gonna be, Dari Amade, he now appears to be in talks again with the Pentagon.

他会放弃他之前的观点吗？

Is he gonna fold on his previous position?

我的意思是，我希望不会。

I mean, I I I hope not.

我们看看这些谈判会如何发展。

We'll see how these talks unfold.

但我认为他这里做了一件好事，那就是坚持自己的真实信念和价值观。

But I think he has something good here, which is standing up for his actual beliefs and his values.

如果他退缩了，那也许一切都是假的。

If he caves, then maybe it was fake.

也许他根本没有价值观，那样的话我们就得重新考虑了。

Maybe he didn't have values, at which point we'll have to turn again.

但看到这一切如何发展确实非常有趣。

But it is very interesting to see how this is all unfolding.

我在这里结束吧，因为我知道你得走了。

I'm gonna wrap us up here because I know that you need to go.

让我们来看看下周的情况。

Let's take a look at the week ahead.

我们将看到一月份的个人消费支出指数和二月份的消费者价格指数的通胀数据。

We will see inflation data from the personal consumption expenditures index for January and the consumer price index for February.

我们还将看到甲骨文和Adobe的财报。

We will also see earnings from Oracle and Adobe.

有什么预测吗，斯科特？

Any predictions, Scott?

我的预测是：不会。

My prediction is no.

这是达里奥·艾哈迈迪的做法，他通过一个简单的策略，将公司的年经常性收入从140亿美元提升到了190亿美元。

And that is Dario Ahmaday, has taken his company from 14,000,000,000 a year in AR to 19,000,000,000 a year in AR with one simple strategy.

不会。

No.

顺便说一下，标普500公司的平均年收入，我认为是180亿美元。

And by the way, the average S and P company, I think, does 18,000,000,000 a year.

我认为这会给予首席执行官们说不的勇气。

And I think that is gonna give CEOs the confidence to say no.

我认为在未来三十天内，你会看到六到十二位首席执行官挺起腰板，说不。

I think you're gonna see a half a dozen to a dozen CEOs over the next thirty days find their testicles and say, no.

本集由克莱尔·米勒和艾莉森·韦斯制作，本杰明·斯宾塞负责音频制作。

This episode was produced by Claire Miller and Alison Weiss and engineered by Benjamin Spencer.

我们的视频编辑是豪尔赫·考格蒂。

Our video editor is Jorge Caugherty.

我们的研究团队包括丹·沙隆、伊莎贝拉·金斯蒂、克里斯汀·奥多诺霍和米亚·西尔维奥。

Our research team is Dan Shalon, Isabella Kinstle, Kristen O'Donohue, Mia Silverio.

杰克·麦克弗森是我们社交媒体制作人。

Jake McPherson is our social producer.

德鲁·伯罗斯是我们技术总监，凯瑟琳·迪伦是我们执行制片人。

Drew Burrows is our technical director, Catherine Dillon is our executive producer.

感谢收听来自Prof G Media的《Prof Markets》。

Thank you for listening to Prof Markets from Prof G Media.

如果你喜欢刚才的内容，请关注我们，明天继续收听我们对市场的全新解读。

If you like what you heard, give us a follow and join us for a fresh take on markets tomorrow.