就业报告比表面看起来更糟

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过去七年里，金融界一直有一个普通人无法进入的领域。

For the past seven years, there's been a room in finance most people couldn't enter.

在这个领域里，你本可以在Airbnb和Uber等科技巨头上市前，就投资于它们，而那时它们的估值还不到数十亿美元。

A room where you could have invested in some of the biggest names in tech companies like Airbnb and Uber before their multibillion dollar IPOs.

我说的就是风险投资。

I'm talking about venture capital.

Fundrise最近用一记重锤砸开了这些封闭的大门，推出了一款面向大众的风险投资产品。

Fundrise recently took a sledgehammer to those closed doors by launching a venture capital product that's available to anyone.

他们的使命是让每个人都有机会在科技和人工智能公司上市前参与投资。

Their mission is to give everyone the chance to invest in the best tech and AI companies before they go public.

你可以访问fundrise.com/profg，查看Fundrise的风险投资组合，并尽早参与。

You can visit fundrise.com/profg to check out Fundrise's venture portfolio and get in early today.

所有投资都存在风险，包括本金损失的可能性。

All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal.

过往表现并不预示未来结果。

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

这是一则付费广告。

This is a paid advertisement.

你好。

Hi.

我是贝拉·弗洛伊德。

This is Bella Freud.

我是《时尚神经症》的主持人。

I'm the host of Fashion Neurosis.

本周节目中，埃丝特·佩雷尔坐在我对面。

This week on the show, Esther Perel is on my couch.

情欲的恢复是创伤疗愈的一部分。

Erotic recovery is part of trauma healing.

天啊，这真有意思。

God, that's interesting.

并不是最后的奖励。

It's not the reward at the end.

是的。

Yeah.

这就是区别。

That's the difference.

我认为我们都围绕着这个概念走到一起。

And I think we both come together around that construct.

对。

Yeah.

在YouTube或你收听播客的任何平台找到《Fashion Neurosis》。

Find Fashion Neurosis on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.

今天的数字是八。

Today's number, eight.

这是美国声称最喜欢冬季奥运会项目是冰壶的人所占的百分比。

That is the percentage of Americans who say their favorite Winter Olympic sport is curling.

这一比例也大致相当于美国患有严重精神疾病的人口比例。

That is also roughly the percentage of Americans who have a serious mental illness.

这一定是巧合。

Must be a coincidence.

建造真是地狱。

Building is hell.

演出还得继续。

Show goes on.

诺亚想要一场促销活动的价格。

The price of Noah wants a show sale.

欢迎来到Frafty市场。

Welcome to Frafty Markets.

我是埃德·埃尔森。

I'm Ed Elson.

今天是2月12日。

It is February 12.

让我们回顾一下昨天的市场关键数据。

Let's check-in on yesterday's market vitals.

就业数据公布后，主要指数小幅下跌。

The major indices ticked down after employment data was released.

稍后我们会详细说明。

More on that in a minute.

与此同时，由于就业报告增加了美联储在下次会议上维持利率不变的可能性，国债收益率飙升。

Meanwhile, treasury yields spiked as the jobs report increased the likelihood that the Fed will hold rates at the next meeting.

最后，比特币跌破了67,000美元。

And finally, Bitcoin sank below $67,000.

好的。

Okay.

还有其他什么动态吗？

What else is happening?

一月份的就业报告好于预期。

The January jobs report came in stronger than expected.

经济新增了13万个就业岗位，失业率小幅下降至4.3%。

The economy added a 130,000 jobs and the unemployment rate edged lower to 4.3%.

但总体增长掩盖了劳动力市场的不平衡状况。

But the headline growth masks a lopsided picture of the job market.

几乎所有增长都来自医疗保健和社会援助这两个行业。

Nearly all of the gains came from just two sectors, health care and social assistance.

与此同时，最新的年度修订数据显示，2025年经济仅新增了18.1万个就业岗位，低于最初报告的58.4万个。

Meanwhile, new annual revisions show that the economy added just a 181,000 jobs in 2025, which is down from the initial 584,000 that was reported.

这使得2025年成为自2003年以来非衰退年份中就业最差的一年。

That makes 2025 the worst non recession year for hiring since 2003.

好的。

Okay.

今天我们邀请到凯瑟琳·安·爱德华兹来帮我们解读这份就业报告，她是一位劳动力经济学家、经济政策顾问，也是《乐观经济》播客的主持人。

Here to help us break down this jobs report, we're speaking with Catherine Ann Edwards, labor economist, economic policy consultant and host of the Optimist Economy podcast.

凯瑟琳，感谢你加入我们。

Katherine, thanks for joining us.

再次感谢您邀请我。

Thank you again for having me.

那么我们来谈谈这份就业报告。

So let's get into this jobs report.

我们增加了13万个就业岗位。

We added 130,000 jobs.

失业率有所下降。

Unemployment rate came down.

这些是好消息。

That's kind of the good stuff.

但也有一些坏消息。

There is some bad stuff as well.

我们先从您的初步反应说起吧。

Let's just start with your initial reactions.

您对这份报告怎么看？

What did you make of the report?

我认为这份报告提醒我们，好与坏是相对的。

I thought it was a report that reminds us that good and good and bad news is relative.

两年前，我们会对如此低的就业数字感到担忧。

Two years ago, we would have been alarmed at a jobs number this low.

考虑到2025年的动荡，看到新增了13万个工作岗位，反而让人感到一丝宽慰。

Given the tumult of 2025, I think it gave a sense of relief to see even a 130,000 jobs added.

我关注这份报告时最大的担忧是，没错，我们确实创造了这么多岗位，但全是医疗和社工类岗位。

The the big concern for me looking at it was, yes, we added all these jobs, but it's all health care jobs and social assistance jobs.

这一点你早在播客里就反复强调过了。

And this is a point that you've been making on the podcast for a long time.

我们确实在增加岗位，但仅限于这些领域。

We are adding jobs, but specifically in those categories.

如果去掉这些行业，据我理解，就业增长实际上会呈下降趋势。

And if we didn't have those sectors, then actually job growth would be in decline is my understanding.

请详细谈谈医疗行业在这份就业报告中的作用，以及它揭示了当前劳动力市场的哪些情况。

Take us through the role that health care played in this jobs report and what it tells us about the strength of the labor market right now.

在某些方面，这反映了过去一年的情况。

In some ways, it's indicative of the last year.

大部分就业增长来自医疗、教育和社会援助领域。

The majority of job growth came from health care, education, and social assistance.

这些行业并不能反映经济的强劲程度。

These are industries that do not reflect the strength of the economy.

嗯哼。

Mhmm.

它们并不反映对企业投资的增加。

They don't reflect investments in businesses.

它们也不反映招聘和扩张的机会。

They don't reflect opportunities for hiring and expansion.

它们反映的是一种长期、周期性的人口服务需求。

They reflect a kind of permanent, a cyclical need to service the human population.

从这个角度看，它们之所以创造就业，是因为我们人口结构的原因——我们有很多老年人。

And in that sense, they're adding jobs because of the composition of our, you know, population, and we have a lot of old people.

我们需要教育年轻人，但这些就业增长并不能说明我们的经济政策取得了成功，也不能说明市场是积极的、正在促进经济活动。

We need to educate young people, but they don't reflect that our economic policies are being successful, that the market is positive and is, you know, enabling economic activity.

在某种程度上，这就像一种压舱物，支撑着一个糟糕的经济，使其不至于沉没。

And in some ways, it's it's a ballast to a bad economy that is large enough to keep it afloat.

但这是一种安慰，我不知道是冷安慰还是纯粹令人沮丧。

But that's I mean, it's comfort, but I don't know if it's cold comfort or just depressing.

对。

Right.

这真的取决于你怎么看待它。

It depends really on how you think about it.

我的意思是，我很高兴我们有这种支撑。

I mean, I'm I'm glad that we have it.

我很高兴我们有这个压舱物，它像一个锚，防止我们被过去一年政府推行的极端经济政策迅速拖入衰退。

I'm glad that we have this ballast, that there's an anchor to keep us from having, you know, very drastic economic policies pull us quickly into a recession like what we've seen come out of the administration over the past year.

但与此同时，它几乎是在纵容这种不良状况，因为它在支撑着经济。

But at the same time, it it is almost enabling this bad activity because it's propping up the economy.

你指出我们国家有很多老年人，而且老年人越来越多。

You pointed out the fact that we have a lot of old people in this country and more and more old people in this country.

我也得出同样的结论：这不是因为我们劳动力市场强劲，而是因为我们国家老龄化非常严重。

That was my conclusion too, that it's not that we have a strong labor market, it's that we have an extremely old nation.

因此，如果老年人很多，就需要更多的医护人员。

And therefore, if you have a lot of old people, you need a lot more health care workers.

我明白这可能有点笼统，但这是我们应当得出的结论吗？

I'm sure that's a little bit of a a generalization, but is that kind of the conclusion that we should be drawing here?

另一个结论是，医疗保健行业本身，嗯，我对目前的情况感觉更好一些，就说吧。

Well, the other conclusion is that, you know, health care as a sector is is not I would feel better about what's happening and just say, look.

老年人需要大量的医疗服务。

Old people demand a lot of health services.

一般来说，人们也在越来越多地需求医疗服务。

You know, people in general are demanding health services.

这没什么问题。

That's that's fine.

让我担心的是，医疗行业在履行其应有职责方面的表现实在太差了。

What worries me is just how poor performing the health care sector is, you know, when it comes to the job that it's supposed to do.

美国人花巨资购买医疗保险，但他们并不满意。

Americans pay a fortune for health insurance, and they don't like it.

他们不喜欢自己能获得的服务。

They don't like what they can access.

他们不喜欢为此支付的费用。

They don't like how much they pay for it.

他们也不喜欢保险的运作方式。

They they don't like how insurance works.

我的意思是，人们对这个行业有如此多的不满，但从宏观经济的角度来看，医疗行业确实在创造就业，这很合理，因为我们的人口老龄化，消耗了大量医疗资源。

I mean, there's just there's so much dissatisfaction with this industry that from the lens of the macro economy, health care is adding jobs, and that makes sense because we have a older population and we consume a lot of health care.

它占到了我们经济的六分之一。

It's one sixth of our economy.

我认为，医疗行业在经济衰退时期支撑市场的这种角色，让我们忽视了这个行业存在的严重问题。

I think that it that type of role that it plays in propping up a market through what would be kind of recessionary periods blinds us to the fact that this industry has severe problems.

是的

Mhmm.

我担心的是，我们仍然增加了8万个就业岗位，因为医疗保健行业新增了8.2万个岗位，所以就业报告看起来不错，但这恰恰掩盖了该行业内部的问题。

And I worry that its role of we still added 80,000 jobs because health care was added or health care added 82,000 jobs, so we had a good report, is really blinding us to the problems within this sector.

对

Right.

对吧？

Right?

我们太不敢仔细审视医疗保健行业到底有多糟糕了，尤其是在一些关键指标上，比如让人民更健康。

We're too we're we're too afraid to look too closely at just how bad of a sector health care is on some pretty important important metrics like making people healthier.

对

Right.

而且，医疗保健的一大抱怨或主要问题似乎是它变得过于臃肿了。

And it seems like one of the big complaints with health care or the big problems with health care has been how bloated it has become.

这实际上正显示它正变得越来越臃肿。

This is basically showing us it's getting even more bloated.

也许增加的就业岗位数量是合理的，但劳动力市场似乎越来越依赖医疗行业，甚至是医疗行业的过度扩张，这看起来并不可持续。

Maybe it's warranted, the the number of jobs, but it does seem that the labor market is increasingly reliant on health care, perhaps on bloat in health care, which doesn't seem that sustainable.

这里另一个需要强调的问题是去年就业数据的修正。

The other problem to highlight here is the revision to last year's job numbers.

他们将去年的年度就业总数修正为2025年增加了18.1万个岗位，这使得2025年成为自2003年以来非衰退年份中招聘表现最差的一年。

So they revised, the annual job totals from last year, to a 181,000 jobs added in 2025, and that makes 2025 the worst non recession year for hiring since 2003.

你如何看待这次数据修正？

What do you make of the revision?

它对我们当前经济状况意味着什么？

What does it tell us about the state of the economy right now?

是的。

Yeah.

好吧，有两个方面。

Well, two things.

第一，情况很糟糕，无法粉饰。

One, it's bad, and there's no way to spin it.

好的。

Okay.

2025年我们新增的就业岗位数量异常低。

The number of jobs that we added in in 2025 was remarkably low.

我想说的第二点是，2025年仍有可能成为衰退年。

The second thing I say is it is not too late for 2025 to be a recession year.

美国判定经济衰退的方式存在极大的滞后性。

The way that The United States declares recession is with an incredible amount of lag.

当有人提到，或者当国家经济研究局的商业周期判定委员会宣布经济衰退开始时，他们可能会在六月宣布衰退实际上是从去年十月开始的。

So when I when when someone says or when the National Bureau of Economic Research, a business cycle dating committee comes down and says a recession has started, they might declare in June that a recession started last October.

你知道，我们往往要等到经济陷入深度衰退时，才真正认定衰退开始了。

You know, we don't we don't really start a recession until we're deep in it.

这其中有很多原因。

There's lots of reasons for that.

大多数都是积极的。

Mostly good.

我们不希望引起恐慌。

We don't wanna instill panic.

我们希望给政策发挥作用的机会。

We wanna give a chance for policy to make a difference.

但这份报告和这次修订表明，我们可能已经处于一场衰退中，而这场衰退的起始时间被认定为去年秋季或春季。

But this report and this revision keeps in play that we could be in a recession where the declaration was to have started last fall or last spring.

这仍然没有被排除。

It it's not out of play yet.

因此，由于这是一个就业增长极低的年份，我们仍然面临风险——只要一份非常糟糕的就业报告，或几轮严重的裁员，就可能让我们认定自己已经陷入衰退达六个月之久。

So the fact that it was such a low job producing year means that we're still at risk of, you know, one one really bad jobs report, a couple really bad rounds of layoffs in an aggregate number, and we'll have decided that we've been in a recession for six months.

这种情况并不罕见。

That's not unheard of.

许多衰退都是轻微而疲弱的，而这样的报告可能将我们推入其中。

A lot of recessions are small and weak, and a report like this could push us into one.

我不认为这种情况会发生，但它并未被完全排除。

I don't think that that's what's going to happen, but it doesn't take it off the table.

这些数据告诉我们关于当前状况的什么信息？

What what does this tell us about the current data?

因为似乎不断发生的是，我们非常关注一月份的数据，然后在同一份报告中发现，过去一年你所看的所有数据其实完全错了，实际情况比我们想象的要糟糕得多。

Because it seems like what keeps on happening is we pay a lot of attention to, say, the January numbers, and then we learn in that same report that, by the way, all of the data that you looked at over the past year is completely wrong, and actually the numbers are way worse than we thought.

公平地说，这种情况一直在发生，我们不断修订这些数据。

And to be fair, this is a this is something that keeps on happening where we keep on revising the numbers.

一般来说，修订后的数据呈现出比实际情况更黯淡的图景，这让我质疑：我们究竟该多认真地看待月度数据呢？

Generally speaking, the numbers are being revised to show a slightly darker picture of what is really going on, which makes me question, like, how seriously should we even be taking the the monthly data?

比如，我们真的应该根据一月份的数据得出新增或流失了多少就业岗位的结论吗？

Like, should we even be drawing any conclusions about how many jobs were added or lost in January?

这有点像你买了一辆新车后，突然发现路上到处都是这种车。

Well, there is a little bit of when you buy a new car, you suddenly see it everywhere on the road.

我们已经处于一个脆弱的经济状态超过两年了。

Like, we have been in a tenuous economic position for more than two years.

我们经历了非常高的通货膨胀。

We've had very high inflation.

利率一直侵蚀着人们的消费能力，而现在我们又面临动荡的行政经济政策。

We've had interest rates gutting people's ability to purchase things, and now we've been met with tumultuous administration economic policy.

所以我们就像买了一辆新车后，突然在街上到处都看到和自己一样的车，这或许说明经济比我们想象的更疲软。

So we are in this, like, in the new car looking for the car that looks like ours, which is maybe the the economy being weaker than we thought it was.

这种情况在一定程度上正在发生，因为每次经济衰退时都会这样。

That that's happening to a certain degree because this happens every downturn.

数据会有大幅修正。

There are big revisions to the numbers.

实际的增长没有我们原先以为的那么高。

The the growth wasn't as high as we thought.

我们通常不会像现在这样，连续三年陷入‘是否处于衰退’的模糊状态。

We just don't normally get held in kind of this, are we in a recession purgatory for three years.

是的。

Mhmm.

正因如此，这在美国经济史上是非常独特的一个时期。

It's a very unique time in American economic history for that reason.

我的意思是，通常情况下，经济衰退来了又走，我们很清楚自己处于什么状态。

I mean, normally, it's like recession in, recession out, and we know where we are.

我认为这是其中一部分原因。

I think that's part of it.

但没错，你应该相信月度数据，因为即使有修正，也从来不会彻底改变整体趋势。

But, yes, you should believe the monthly numbers because even when a revision comes in, it never, like, dramatically changes the direction.

好的。

Okay.

并不是说我们把去年每个月的数据都替换成与之前完全无关的新数字。

It's not as if we replace every month of last year with a whole new number that was unrelated to the one that came before.

它们只是逐步被修正。

They get they get revised in degrees.

是的。

Yes.

而且实际上，我们原本以为增加了这么多就业，结果修正后下调了，实际上反而失去了这么多工作岗位。

And not and not it was actually, we we thought we added all these jobs, they were, you know, revised downward, and we actually lost all these jobs.

我的意思是，从整体上看，这一年就业增长疲软，秋季比春季更弱，而修订结果也正好印证了这一点。

I mean, for the most part, it was a weak year of job growth, weaker in the fall than in the spring, and that's exactly what the revision showed too.

只是稍微下调了一点。

It just took it down a little bit.

你知道的？

You know?

但如果我不强调，不能仅依赖单一数据得出的数字来解读，那我就失职了。

But I would be remiss if I didn't say any reliance on one single number produced by the data is not the right way to interpret it.

是的。

Yep.

经济总是沿着趋势发展，而不是跟着数字走。

The economy always moves in directions and not with the not with the numbers.

所以，我们应该吸取的教训是，不要过于关注具体数字，而更应关注经济的相对位置。

So that it's a lesson to not focus too much on the number, more so the relative position of the economy.

今天的这份报告就是一个很好的例子。

This report today is a great example.

13万是好还是坏？

Is a 130,000 good or bad?

如果数字从10万涨到15万，你的看法会改变吗？

Well, would your opinion change if it went from one ten to one fifty?

没错。

Right.

你知道通常的修正幅度范围是多少吗？

You know, the range of a typical revision?

不知道。

No.

你还是会认为这是一份中等水平的就业报告，美国经济本应创造更多岗位，但你也会庆幸数字没有更低，毕竟今年整体表现太弱了。

You would still think this is a pretty mid lane job report, and The US economy should be adding more, but you're gonna be grateful that it wasn't a really low number because we've had such a weak year.

所以我看待这个问题的方式是：不管就业数据是多少，都在两边加上2.5万，然后问问自己，这会不会真正改变你对这份报告的看法。

So I I think about it that way of just take whatever is the jobs number, add 25,000 to each side, and ask if it would really change your opinion of the report.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yeah.

这是一个很有帮助的框架。

That is a helpful framework.

最后一个问题。

Final question.

16至24岁年轻人的失业率再次下降。

Unemployment rate for young people for sixteen to twenty four year olds fell again.

目前已降至9%。

It's now down to 9%.

此外，大学毕业生的起薪同比下跌了8%。

Also, the starting salary for college graduates is down 8% year over year.

这是六年来最低的水平。

It's the lowest it's been in six years.

我的意思是，总体来看，年轻人的就业市场至少比中年人、老年人等群体更糟。

I mean, overall, the job market for young people has been at least worse than it has been for, you know, middle aged people, older people, etcetera.

我的意思是，劳动力市场目前的紧张状况，尤其是对年轻人而言，感受尤为明显。

I mean, it seems like whatever tightness we're seeing in the labor market is being acutely felt, among young people especially.

而且每次我们看到这些报告时，这种情况似乎都会一再发生。

And this this seems to keep on happening every time we get these reports.

我只是想以你对这个问题的结论来结束。

I just wanted to end with your conclusions on that.

这说明了当前年轻人的就业市场状况如何？

What does this say about, the job market for young people right now?

年轻人在就业市场上总是表现得比其他人差，因为他们经验较少，而且经济负担也较轻。

Young people are always doing worse than the job market because they have less experience and they're they're have less financial responsibilities.

因此，他们能够更长时间地承受不利的劳动力市场，因为大多数21岁的年轻人并没有房贷。

So they're also able to kind of ride out a bad labor market for longer because they are not you know, most 21 year olds don't have mortgages.

他们没有孩子。

They don't have children.

他们也没有托儿费用等支出。

They don't have childcare payments and so on.

所以他们在劳动力市场中的处境更糟，对这种处境的应对能力也更弱。

So they they are both weaker in how they're treated by the labor market and weaker in how they respond to that.

尤其是当前这种招聘低迷、近乎冻结的劳动力市场，对那些无法顺利进入职场的年轻人伤害特别大。

This labor market in particular, this low hiring, almost frozen labor market that we see is particularly damaging to young people who are not getting their their foot in the door.

而且，你知道，失业率从百分之十一降到百分之九，这并没有改变现实情况——年轻人依然找不到工作。

And, again, you know, it's dropping to nine, being up at eleven doesn't change the story on the ground, which is that young people are not finding jobs.

嗯。

Mhmm.

他们找到工作的速度和数量都达不到我们期望的水平。

And they're not finding them at the degree we want or the pace that we want.

我对这种轻微的下降表示欢迎。

I welcome this slight dip.

我不太满意的是25到34岁群体的失业率略有上升，这让人不禁怀疑，是不是有一批人只是年龄增长了一点，从而导致了整体数据的下降，这可能只是年龄分界点附近的人口结构变化造成的。

I didn't love that the 25 to 34 year old rate jumped up a little bit, so you do wonder if a bunch of people just got a little older, and that might have been the reason for the the the fall, is the composition around the age cutoff.

但同样地，

But, again,

年轻人在劳动力市场中的地位，使得他们在经济周期中往往成为领先指标，同时也是恢复最慢的群体。

it's a it's a feature of economic business cycles that young people tend to be almost a leading indicator as well as the slowest to recover given their position in the labor market.

但我们通常不会在这种劳动力市场的炼狱中被困如此之久。

But we're not normally held here for so long to be kind of wallowing in this labor market purgatory.

这种情况本不该持续好几年。

It's not supposed to be multiple years long.

因此，在很长一段时间里，他们处于最不利的位置，而那些保住工作的劳动者却安然无恙。

And so they're they're in some ways, they're kept in the worst position for a long period of time when workers who have kept their job are okay.

我不知道这个回答是否令人满意，因为除了让经济变得更强大之外，他们并没有真正的解决办法。

I don't know if that answer is satisfying at all because there's no short of let's make the economy stronger, there's not really a solution for them.

好的。

Alright.

凯瑟琳·安·爱德华兹，劳动经济学家、经济政策顾问，《乐观经济》播客主持人。

Katherine Anne Edwards, labor economist, economic policy consultant, host of the Optimist Economy podcast.

凯瑟琳，感谢你抽出时间。

Katherine, appreciate your time.

谢谢。

Thank you.

再见了，各位。

Bye, y'all.

广告后，人工智能迎来转折点。

After the break, AI reaches a turning point.

如需获取更多市场洞察，欢迎订阅我的每周通讯《Simply Put》，地址是 Edward Elson.substack.com。

And for even more markets insights, you can subscribe to my weekly newsletter, simply put, at Edward Elson dot Substack dot com.

这里是梅根·拉皮诺。

Megan Rapinoe here.

本周《更进一步》节目中，唯一无二的弗拉杰·约翰逊加入我们，讨论如何在WNBA实现突破、管理NIL收入，以及如何发展她的音乐事业。

This week on a touch more, the one and only Flaje Johnson joins us to talk about leveling up for the WNBA, managing NIL money, and how she's nurturing her music career.

我们还将深入探讨为何女孩参与体育运动的人数正在下降。

We're also taking a closer look at why participation in girls sports is declining.

令人惊讶。

Surprising.

我们知道。

We know.

我们还会聊聊情人节，以及和职业运动员约会是什么感觉，还有史上最佳运动员情侣是谁。

And we're giving some love to Valentine's Day and what it's like dating a pro athlete and who's the best athlete couple of all time.

请在您收听播客的平台或YouTube上收听《A Touch More》的最新一期。

Check out the latest episode of a touch more wherever you get your podcasts and on YouTube.

上个月，蒙大拿州的一名记者诺拉·梅贝正在Facebook上寻找新闻素材。

Last month, Nora Maybe, a reporter in Montana, was looking around on Facebook for story ideas.

在蒙大拿州，尤其是在乡村地区，Facebook是许多新闻传播的地方。

In Montana, particularly in rural areas, Facebook is where a lot of news is shared.

一条来自当地警长的帖子引起了她的注意。

And a post from the local sheriff caught her eye.

他说，边境巡逻人员来到蒙大拿州一个名叫弗洛伊德的极小城镇的一家商铺外，要带走某人，而他作为警长，正在协助他们。

He said that border patrol agents had rocked up outside of business in the very small town of Freud, Montana to take someone in, and that he, the sheriff, was trying to assist them.

但在帖子的末尾，他

But then at the end of post, he

他补充了这一点。

added this.

需要注意的是，这个人并没有构成威胁，对社区没有危险，没有任何犯罪记录，一直是这个社区的优秀成员。

It's important to note that this man was not a threat, not a danger to his community, has no criminal history, and has been a a great member of this community.

我从未见过执法部门，尤其是在一个通常大力支持各类执法机构、包括边境巡逻队的保守地区，做出这样的声明。

Which I just haven't seen a statement like that from law enforcement, particularly in a really, you know, conservative area that typically has a lot of support for all types of law enforcement, border patrol included.

接下来是关于蒙大拿州弗洛伊德镇的故事，这个小镇的大多数人曾投票支持特朗普总统，以及当现实降临后居民们的反应。

Coming up on Today the story of Freud, Montana, a town where most people voted for president Trump and how residents reacted when reality hit home.

《今日解释》每天工作日更新。

Today Explained drops every weekday.

大家好。

Hi, everyone.

本周《与卡拉·斯威舍尔同行》节目中，我邀请到了传奇演员兼活动家简·方达。

This week on On with Kara Swisher, I'm joined by the iconic actor and activist Jane Fonda.

你们都听说过她。

You've heard of her.

简和我聊了她作为活动家的根源，从上世纪七十年代抗议越南战争，到她至今仍在为气候、言论自由，乃至我们的民主而斗争。

Jane and I talked about her roots as an activist dating back to the nineteen seventies when she was protesting the Vietnam war to her ongoing fight for climate, free speech, and ultimately our democracy.

以下是她的一些精彩观点。

Here's a taste of what she had to say.

希望与乐观是完全不同的。

Hope is very different than optimism.

你知道，乐观就是觉得一切都会好起来，而你却什么都不做。

You know, optimism is everything's gonna be fine, and you don't do anything about it.

希望是一种肌肉。

Hope is a muscle.

希望就是你奋起抗争的时候。

Hope is when you fight.

希望可以充满愤怒，像用撞墙锤砸开大门一样。

Hope can be rage filled, breaking down the door with a battering ram.

这是一场很棒的对话。

This is a wonderful conversation.

我有幸能与这样的人交谈。

I am privileged to be able to talk to people like this.

简·方达太棒了。

Jane Fonda is the bomb.

她就是这样的。

She just is.

她一直就是这样。

She's always been that way.

她至今依然如此。

She remains that way.

她将被载入史册，成为这样的人。

She will go down in history as that.

你可以在任何收听播客的平台搜索我们，也可以在YouTube上关注我们，并记得关注卡拉·斯威舍，获取更多内容。

You can listen to wherever you get your podcasts and search for us too on YouTube, and be sure to follow on with Cara Swisher for more.

我们回到Prophecy Markets。

We're back with Prophecy Markets.

OpenAI 和 Anthropic AI 的发布总是引人注目，但它们最新工具的影响极为深远。

OpenAI and Anthropix AI releases are always interesting, but the impacts of their latest tools have been profound.

上周，在 Anthropic 发布 Opus 4.6 和 OpenAI 发布 Codex 5.3 之后，软件股票市值蒸发了 2 万亿美元。

Last week, after Anthropic released Opus 4.6 and OpenAI released Codex 5.3, software stocks lost $2,000,000,000,000 in value.

我们在周一的节目中讨论过这一点。

We discussed that on our Monday episode.

本周，科技公司 Altruist 推出了一款帮助用户报税的 AI 工具，导致 Charles Schwab 和 Raymond James 等金融股股价下跌了约 10%。

This week, tech firm Altruist released an AI tool which helps you do taxes, and financial stocks such as Charles Schwab and Raymond James lost around 10% of their value.

昨天，一篇讨论这些新 AI 工具的博客文章不仅走红了。

And then yesterday, a blog post that discussed these new AI tools didn't just go viral.

它直接引爆了全网。

It went nuclear.

这篇帖子在 24 小时内触达了超过五千万人。

The post reached over 50,000,000 people in twenty four hours.

这大约相当于今年超级碗观众人数的三分之一。

That is equal to roughly one third of this year's Super Bowl audience.

这甚至超过了《华尔街日报》网站一个月的浏览量。

It's also more views than The Wall Street Journal website gets in a month.

这篇文章的前提很简单。

The premise of the post is simple.

这些新工具不是即将改变一切。

These new tools aren't about to change everything.

它们已经改变了这一切。

They already have changed everything.

作者马特·舒默写道：‘过去一年，科技工作者目睹了人工智能从辅助工具转变为比自己做得更好的工作伙伴，而其他人即将经历同样的过程。'

The author, Matt Schumer, writes, quote, the experience that tech workers have had over the past year of watching AI go from helpful tool to does my job better than I do is the experience everyone else is about to have.

来自多个行业的领导者都称赞了这篇文章。

Leaders from multiple industries praised the piece.

亚历克西斯·奥哈尼安表示他强烈赞同。

Alexis Ohanian said he strongly agrees.

梅迪·哈桑说，这是‘你今天、本周、本月读过的最重要的文章。'

Mehdi Hassan said that it is, quote, the most important piece you read today, this week, this month.

显然，人工智能领域正在发生一场深刻变革，这种变革不仅激发了程序员的想象力，也触动了所有使用计算机的人。

Clearly, a sea change is happening in AI right now, one that is pushing the imaginations of not just coders, but everyone who works with a computer.

我们想深入探讨一下这个话题，即这些新的AI工具，正如这篇博客文章所讨论的那样。

We wanted to dig into this, the new AI tools, well as the blog post.

因此，今天我们邀请到Sources通讯的创始人、Access播客的主持人亚历克斯·海斯来与我们讨论这个问题。

So joining us to discuss it, we're speaking with Alex Heath, founder of the Sources newsletter and host of the Access Podcast.

亚历克斯，很高兴见到你。

Alex, good to see you.

很高兴见到你，埃德。

Good to see you, Ed.

我们已经有段时间没请你来做客了。

So it's been a while since we had you on.

科技和人工智能领域发生了太多变化，我想和你深入聊聊这些。

So much has happened in tech and in AI, which I wanna get into with you.

我们不妨先从最近发布的这些新AI工具说起，比如Opus 4.6、5.3 Codex，还有这些插件工具。

I guess let's just start with these new AI tools that we've seen released, Opus 4.6, 5.3 Codex, all of these plug in tools.

上周我们看到软件股票遭到严重抛售。

We saw this just evisceration of software stocks last week.

现在我们看到金融股也在下滑。

Now we're seeing financial stocks are in decline.

你对这些新的AI工具怎么看？你对市场对这些新AI工具的反应又怎么看？

What do you make of the new AI tools, and what do you make of how the market is reacting to these new AI tools?

我认为在西海岸，每个人都对Claude Bot着迷。

Well, I think out here on the West Coast, everyone's obsessed with Claude Bot.

对吧？

Right?

这种自动化代理软件，你需要给它一台Mac Mini或者某种云实例，它就能为你控制电脑上的所有操作，你还可以通过iMessage、Telegram等渠道与它交互。

This automation agentic software that you have to give a Mac Mini to or some kind of cloud instance, and then it can control everything on a computer for you, and you can route it through iMessage or Telegram or whatever.

这无疑在硅谷的极客和早期采用者中引发了热潮。

That's definitely taken, I would say, the tinkerers and the early adopters in Silicon Valley by storm.

而且新的模型确实很出色。

And then the new models are good.

我的意思是，这些模型持续改进，尤其是在工具使用方面，能够控制和操作软件的能力。

I mean, the models continue to improve, especially on tool use, the ability to control and manipulate software.

你在Codex身上就能看到这一点。

You're seeing that with Codex.

OpenAI 在这方面获得了大量关注。

OpenAI is seeing a ton of traction there.

我认为这正在从Claude和Anthropic那里抢走一些市场份额。

I think stealing market share a little bit from Claude and Anthropic.

而Claude继续发布新产品，像你所说的一样，走在前沿，比如OPUS 4.6。

And then Claude continues to ship and be at the frontier with with OPUS 4.6, like you said.

所以，这些工具似乎正以稳定的速度进步。

So the tools are progressing, it seems, at a steady pace.

每个人都想寻找一个故事。

And I think everyone is looking for a story.

每个人都想找到一个叙事，来解释自己的不安和市场的波动。

Everyone is looking for a narrative to hang their jitters on and the market's jitters on.

我不是宏观领域的专家。

And I'm not a macro expert.

但我敢说，这次这么大的抛售可能跟Opus 4.6和Claude Bot没什么关系。

But I would venture to say that this much sell off maybe doesn't have to do with, you know, Opus four point six and Claude Bot.

你知道的吧？

You know?

这看起来有点夸大其词了。

It just seems a little overblown.

但再说一遍，我是个技术 guy，不是宏观领域的专家。

But, again, I'm a I'm a tech guy, not a not a macro guy.

这很有趣，因为根据你的看法，AI正在发生的事情，听起来比我从其他人那里听到的要理性得多。

Well, it's interesting because your read on what's happening with AI sounds to me as a lot more sober than what I'm hearing from other people.

而且昨天那篇博客文章爆火了，仅在X平台上就获得了超过五千万次浏览，其他平台也有不少。

And this blog post, which I wanna get into with you, that went absolutely viral yesterday, more than 50,000,000 views just on X, and it's on other platforms too.

它的影响力甚至比这还要大。

So it's it's it's larger than that.

那篇文章的重点不在于这些新工具代表了你所描述的稳步进展，而在于一种指数级的飞跃，突然间一切都不同了。

The story of that article isn't that these new tools represent sort of a steady progression as you're portraying, but an exponential progression and that suddenly everything is different.

你知道，这些AI工具一直在不断进步，但这些新工具代表了一个转折点。

You know, these AI tools have been getting better and better and better, but now these new ones represent an inflection point.

从这一刻起，一切即将发生改变。

And from this point forward, everything is about to change.

这可不是我从你那里听到的观点。

That's not what I'm hearing from you.

我认为它正在迅速改变编程。

I think what it's doing is it's rapidly changing coding.

它正在改变软件工程师的工作。

It's changing the job of a software engineer.

你在提到的那篇帖子中就看到了这一点。

You saw that in that post you're talking about.

他当时谈的是工程方面的问题。

He was talking about engineering.

确实，它正在抽象掉传统上被认为是软件工程的大量内容，并且速度惊人。

And it's true that it is abstracting away much of what was traditionally considered software engineering, and it's doing it incredibly quickly.

构建这些系统的人、这些AI实验室的领导者，并不真正预期这些模型能像在编程领域那样迅速泛化到新领域，至少不会像编程那样快速崛起。

People who build these systems, the leaders of these AI labs, they don't really expect the models to generalize to new domains in the way that they have to coding, at least not as quickly as coding has taken off.

编程有其特殊性。

There's a special thing to coding.

它是确定性的。

It's deterministic.

你可以确信你的代码是有效的。

You can know for sure that your code works.

这是数学，而AI和大语言模型在这种环境中表现得尤为出色。

It's math, and AI and LLMs really excel in that kind of environment.

当然，比如当Claude加入了法律AI和合同审查等功能后，我们看到了法律领域股票的抛售。

And sure, you know, we saw the sell off with legal stocks, for example, when Claude added the legal AI and the contract review and all of that.

因此，随着这些AI助手的成熟，它们确实有吞噬整个行业的威胁。

So there is a threat of, you know, these AI assistants eating whole sectors as they mature.

但你知道，山姆·阿尔曼在超级碗前后就指出了这一点。

But, you know, Sam Allman pointed this out around the Super Bowl.

你知道，ChatGPT在德克萨斯州的用户数量比Claude全球的用户还多。

You know, ChatGPT has more users in Texas than Claude has globally.

这些工具目前还没有被广泛使用。

These are still not widely used tools.

所以你看到的这种炒作，我今天早些时候在我的前账号上还开玩笑说，这就像《黑客帝国》里的尼奥在躲避子弹，努力不被卷入这些关于‘世界将永远改变’的X平台长文里。

And so this this hype that you see, and I was joking on my ex account earlier today, like, it's like Neo dodging bolts in the matrix trying not to, like, get sucked into all these, you know, the world is never gonna be the same essays on X.

对吧？

Right?

这些所谓的‘思想男孩’和AI营销人员在X平台上对这一切狂热不已。

All these these think boys and these AI marketers that are just going crazy on X about all this stuff.

你知道，我持两种看法。

You know, I'm of two minds.

我确实理解他们所经历的，也就是说，如果他们是工程师，他们生活中关键的一部分正以极快的速度在他们眼前发生巨变。

I I do appreciate what they're experiencing, which is, you know, if they're engineers, a key part of their lives quickly changing before their very eyes in a very fast clip.

我认为，世界上其他没有经历这种变化的人，只是在使用聊天版的PT，它可能只会给一只手多加一根手指之类的东西。

And I do think there is a bit of a gap between the rest of the world that is not experiencing that and is just experiencing chatty PT, which, you know, will still add an extra finger to a hand or something like that.

而这些编码系统正在构建应用程序和软件，一次性搞定。

And then these coding systems building apps and software, you know, one shotted.

所以，它是否会泛化，这就是争论的焦点。

So will that generalize is the debate.

它会多快地推广到其他领域？

How quickly will it generalize to other domains?

我认为，如果其中一个实验室宣布他们已经解决了所谓的持续学习问题——也就是大语言模型能够持续学习并自我积累——那可能将是另一个转折点。

I think if one of these labs comes out and says we've solved, you know, it's called continual learning, but this idea of, like, the LLM, like, continues to learn and build on itself, That's probably another sea change moment.

人们觉得这可能发生在明年，而不是今年。

People think that's maybe next year, not this year.

但你知道，很多正在被抛售的股票，其实都有长期的企业合同。

But, you know, a lot of these stocks that are getting sold, they have, you know, long term enterprise contracts.

你知道吗？

You know?