下一轮通胀浪潮已经到来

哦，不。

Oh, no.

这是战争。

It's war.

然后第二年市场实际上大幅上涨。

And then the markets actually go way up at the the following year.

所以感觉市场每次因为海外冲突（通常由我们引发）导致下跌时，都把它视为一个买入机会。

So it feels like the markets have said every time there was a dip in the markets because of the outbreak of hostilities overseas usually caused by us, it's been a buying opportunity when the market goes down.

所以市场似乎在说，直接跳到买入机会吧，我们不会像过去那样恐慌性抛售。

So it feels like the market's like, let's just skip to the buying opportunity or, we don't buy that no one no one wants to panic sell like they one wants to sell like they have in previous.

但再次强调，过去的表现并不能作为未来表现的依据。

So but, again, past performance is not an indication of future performance.

没错。

Exactly.

至于衰退，即使不考虑伊朗战争，我也很喜欢 Jamie Dimon 的说法：衰退每七年就会发生一次。

And in terms of recession, even distinct of the war in Iran, I love what Jamie Dimon said that a recession is something that happens every seven years.

我们已经整整十七年或十八年没有经历过一次了。

We haven't really had one in seventeen years or eighteen years.

还是我说得不对？

Or is that right?

2008年？

2008?

我的意思是，我们真的该到了该发生的时候了。

I mean, it's just been we're just so due.

再说一遍，对你们和克莱尔来说，我认为这未必是件最糟糕的事。

And again, I go to, for you and Claire, I don't think that would be the worst thing that could happen.

你们各自的生活成本，以及其他年轻人的生活成本，在经济衰退和萧条时期已经高得离谱了，我不希望出现大萧条。

You know, the cost of your lives respectively and of other young people have gotten so crazy in recessions, depressions I don't want a depression.

经济衰退，由外部事件引发，通常来说，它是周期中健康的一部分，能将财富从拥有者转移给劳动者。

A recession, an exogenous event, they have a tendency, generally speaking, they're a healthy part of the cycle that transfers wealth from owners to earners.

所以，我不是说要盼着股市下跌，但这是基本的数学逻辑，朋友们。

And so I don't, you know, you don't want to root for stocks to go down, but it's basic math, folks.

如果你在投资，你和克莱尔正处于人生的投资阶段，因为你们的雇主提供了极其慷慨的401(k)匹配计划，但你们确实处于投资阶段。

If you're investing, you and Claire are in the investing portions of your life because of an exceptionally generous four zero one k matching program by your employer, but you're in the investing part of your life.

那么，你是希望股市上涨还是下跌？

So do you want stocks up or down?

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

你希望它下跌。

You want them down.

我们持续在这里做的事情如此危险，就是印钞票，回头又要求国会像醉醺醺的水手一样不断花销、累积更多债务，这推高了通胀，而其中大部分负担都落在了低收入家庭，尤其是年轻人身上。

And what is so dangerous about what we continue to do here is to print money and go back to and ask for congress as if we're just drunken sailors spending more and more and racking up debt, which increases inflation, of which the majority of of that burden is shouldered by lower income households and especially the young.

所以，我并不是希望经济衰退，但迟早我们得停止用你们的信用卡来支撑市场。

So I'm not rooting for a recession, but at some point, we have to stop propping up the market with your credit card.

如果突然间，我想象你和克莱尔，你们俩都不是房主。

And if all of a sudden I would imagine you and Claire, neither of you are homeowners.

对吧？

Right?

不对。

No.

我猜你们俩都希望成为房主。

I would imagine both of you would like to be homeowners.

所以如果市场横向盘整或大幅下跌，突然间布鲁克林的房地产下跌了20%、40%，这算是坏事吗？

So if the market went sideways or down substantially, and all of a sudden, real estate in Brooklyn was off 20%, 40%, is that bad?

我对这个问题其实持两种看法。

So I I I'm I'm of two minds on this.

我不希望看到衰退带来大量痛苦，但感觉我们确实该经历一次了。

I don't wanna see there's a lot of pain in a recession, but it feels like we're due.

坦白说，衰退和下行周期是经济周期中健康的一部分。

And quite frankly, recessions and down cycles are a healthy part of a cycle.

否则，这就不叫周期了。

Otherwise, it's not a cycle.

我不是希望出现衰退，但如果要在衰退和失控的通货膨胀之间做选择，我每次都选衰退。

I'm not rooting for a recession, but if it's a choice between a recession and uncontrolled inflation, I'll take the recession every time.

我的意思是，通货膨胀对年轻人和低收入人群的打击最严重。

I mean, the inflation's what's gonna hit young people and lower income people the hardest.

这其实就是你的购买力在下降。

That's just you're losing your purchasing power.

但我认为，掌权的人，特别是特朗普，非常喜欢股市上涨，而他对物价上涨似乎并不太在意。

But I think the people in charge, specifically Trump, has decided he really likes when stocks go up, and I guess he doesn't really care that much if prices go up.

他看起来好像很在意，但实际上并非如此。

He seems to pretend like he cares.

他说他现在认真对待住房可负担性危机，但随后却竭尽全力让情况变得更糟。

He says that he oh, I'm taking the affordability crisis seriously now, but then he does everything in his power to make it even worse.

而在住房问题上，他表示他实际上希望房价上涨。

And then when it comes to housing, he says that he actually wants the price of housing to go up.

这让人觉得

That made

他花这么多钱，简直太荒谬了。

no spends all of this money to just it was just ridiculous.

所以他根本不在乎可负担性。

So he doesn't actually care about affordability.

他根本不在乎价格，而且为此会遭到严厉抨击。

He doesn't actually care about prices, and and he's gonna get absolutely clobbered for it.

我们必须找出

We have to figure out

一种方法，让平均家庭收入为7.7万美元的家庭能够买得起房子。

a way such that the average household income of $77,000 can afford a home.

不应该是‘钻探吧，宝贝，钻探’，这是特朗普政府提出的方案。

It shouldn't be drill, baby, drill, which the Trump administration proposed.

而应该是‘建造吧，宝贝，建造’。

It should be build, baby, build.

我们绝对需要通过‘是的，在我家后院’立法和对开发商提供税收补贴，来释放私营部门的潜力。

We absolutely need housing prices through Yimbe legislation and through tax subsidies to developers to unleash the private sector.

我们需要大量的建设。

We need a massive amount of construction.

但不幸的是，回到最初的话题，关税和反移民政策推高了建筑成本。

And, unfortunately, back to the original story, construction costs through tariffs, anti immigration policy.

我的意思是，如果你是个邦德反派，你可能会说：如何在房价已经不可思议地飙升之后，再进一步推高房价？

I mean, you could almost argue if you were a Bond villain saying, how do you take housing prices up even more after an unbelievable acceleration?

好吧。

Okay.

让我们让真正参与建房的人几乎无法移民。

Let's make immigration nearly impossible for the people who are actually building the homes.

让我们大幅提高建房材料的成本。

Let's take the supplies of building a home way up.

对吧？

Right?

再把利率大幅提高。

And let's take interest rates way up.

然后我们再轰炸全球石油和天然气运输的唯一通道——正如我们所了解到的，这实际上是整个经济的基础。

And then let's bomb the one place where all of the oil and gas is transported through throughout the world, which is, as we're learning, literally the basis of the entire economy.

我的意思是，我们真正所对抗的正是这个。

I mean, that's what we're really fighting is.

我们所有人都比自己愿意承认的更依赖石油和天然气。

We we all need oil and gas a lot more than we would like.

它几乎渗透到每一个环节。

It literally funnels through to everything.

从农场到超市的食品运输，再到飞机使用的燃料，以及用于生产粮食的化肥所用的柴油，全都依赖于此。

The the transport to get the food from the farm to the grocery store and then, to the the fuel that goes into the airplane and then the diesel that goes into the fertilizer, which is used to grow the food.

我的意思是，我们每一件事都离不开它。

I mean, we rely on this for literally everything.

所以，是的，正如你所说，我们竟然想出了办法，把到手的胜利硬生生搞砸了。

And so, yeah, we have figured out a way somehow, as you say, to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

我们原本已经看到通胀在下降。

We had inflation going down.

它当时正在下降。

It was trending down.

我们已经搞清楚了，但现在又大幅回升了。

We'd figured it out, and now it's going way back up again.

而且看起来这种情况还会继续。

And it seems like that will continue.

只是在讨论可能的发展方向。

Just going to what could go.

对吧？

Right?

确实有一种观点认为，这远不足以抵消通胀和利率上升的影响。

There is an argument, and it's not nearly the compensation for inflation and and increased interest rates.

但我怀疑这是否会重新推动替代能源的销售增长。

But I wonder if this is gonna put renewed wins in the sales of alternative energy.

是的。

Yes.

从国家安全的角度来看，有人绝对地、没错，就是这么回事。

And someone absolutely, from a national security standpoint, right, just okay.

除非我们开始轰炸自己的风力涡轮机，或者太阳被遮住了，你知道，封锁霍尔木兹海峡比遮住太阳容易多了。

Unless we start bombing our own windmills or or the sun gets blocked, you know, it's it's much easier to block the Straits Of Hormuz than the sun.

让我震惊的一个数据是，卡琳·斯威舍的前妻梅根，这位极其聪明的人，把我从一个会议中赶了出去，说：‘我有你一定会喜欢的数据’，然后给我看了。

The one stat that just blew me away, my Cara Swisher's ex wife, Megan, who's this incredibly smart person, chased me out of a session and said, I have data you're gonna love, and she showed it to me.

有一个非常棒的网站，可以实时显示德克萨斯州当前的电力来源。

There's this incredible site that shows where at that moment where Texas is getting its electricity and the source of that electricity.

是煤炭吗？

Is it coal?

是液化天然气吗？

Is it LNG?

到底是什么？

What is it?

就在那个周五下午1点左右，德克萨斯州60%的电力来自风能，18%来自太阳能。

And at that moment at 1PM on a Friday, whenever it was, Texas is getting 60% of its electricity from wind power and 18% from solar.

因此，那个通常让人联想到埃克森和油气的州，实际上在可再生能源方面正引领全国。

So the state that is, you know, the backdrop to landman, and we always think of Exxon and oil and gas, is really leading the nation in alternatives.

我当时想，好吧，或许这里还有几个积极的方面。

And I thought, okay, if there's I'd like to think there's several silver linings here.

我想看看事情可能会往好的方向发展。

I'd like to think what could go right.

但其中一个可能是：这会不会让我们开始思考更安全的能源管道，避免依赖易受攻击的船只，以及更自然地发展能源？

But one of them might be, okay, does this a, get us thinking about more secure pipelines where we don't have vulnerable ships, and two, just organically built?

我的意思是，如果你是韩国，我猜现在肯定有很多新的太阳能初创企业正在寻求融资。

I mean, if you're South Korea, I would imagine there's a lot of new solar startups being pitched right now.

对吧？

Right?

当它让人们看到，没有自己的能源来源时，各国是多么脆弱。

When it shows countries just how vulnerable they are when they don't have their own sources of energy.

广告后我们马上回来。

We'll be right back after the break.

如果你到目前为止喜欢这个节目，请分享给朋友，如果你还没有关注的话，请务必关注我们。

And if you're enjoying the show so far, send it to a friend, and please follow us if you haven't already.

本节目由VCX赞助，VCX是私营科技公司的公开股票代码。

Support for this show comes from VCX, the public ticker for private tech.

几代以来，美国公司凭借其创造力推动了世界前进，而几代普通美国人则通过或许是人类历史上最伟大的创新——美国股市，参与了这一进程。

For generations, American companies have moved the world forward to their ingenuity And for generations, everyday Americans could be part of that journey through perhaps the greatest innovation of all, The US stock market.

无论你是底特律的工厂工人，还是奥马哈的农民，都无关紧要。

It didn't matter whether you were a factory worker in Detroit or a farmer in Omaha.

任何人都能拥有美国伟大公司的股份。

Anyone could own a piece of the great American companies.

但如今，这种情况已经改变了。

But now that's changed.

如今，我们最具创新性的公司选择保持私有，而不是上市。

Today, our most innovative companies are staying private rather than going public.

结果是，普通美国人被排除在投资之外，越来越落后，而少数人却独享所有收益，直到现在。

The result is that everyday Americans are excluded from investing and getting left further behind while a select few reap all the benefits until now.

推出VCX，一个面向私营科技公司的公开股票代码。

Introducing VCX, a public ticker for private tech.

VCX由Fundrise提供，让每个人都有机会投资于下一代创新，包括该公司引领的人工智能革命、太空探索、国防科技等。

VCX by Fundrise gives everyone the opportunity to invest in the next generation of innovation, including the company's leading AI revolution, space exploration, defense tech, and more.

访问getvcx.com了解更多信息。

Visit getvcx.com for more info.

那就是getvcx.com。

That's getvcx.com.

投资前请仔细考虑投资材料，包括投资目标、风险和费用。

Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risk charges, and expenses.

更多相关信息可在getvcx.com上的基金招募说明书里找到。

This and other information can be found in the fund's prospectus at getvcx.com.

这是一则付费赞助内容。

This is a paid sponsorship.

本节目由Vanta赞助。

Support for the show comes from Vanta.

如果你是企业主，你可能已经注意到，风险和监管都在增加，而客户为了开展业务，期望看到安全性的证明。

If you're a business owner, you may have noticed that both risk and regulation are ramping up, and customers expect proof of security just to do business.

向客户和潜在客户展示信任对于促成交易至关重要，但这可能成本高昂、耗时且复杂。

And demonstrating trust to customers and prospects is critical to closing deals, but it can also be costly, time intensive, and complex.

Vanta 表示，他们正是为此而来。

Vanta says that's where they come in.

Vanta 通过自动化你的合规流程，将合规性、风险与客户信任整合到一个基于人工智能的平台上。

Vanta automates your compliance process to bring compliance risk and customer trust together on one AI powered platform.

他们自动化了实现和维护超过35项隐私框架合规性的流程，包括 SOC 2、ISO 27001 和 HIPAA。

They automate the process of achieving and maintaining compliance with over 35 and privacy frameworks, including SOC two, ISO two seven zero zero one, and HIPAA.

这帮助企业快速实现合规并持续保持合规，从而开启更高层次的增长机会，并释放宝贵的时间。

This helps companies get compliant fast and remain compliant, opening doors to next level growth opportunities and freeing up valuable time.

Vanta 不仅帮助你完成合规检查，更能帮助你规模化地建立真正的信任。

And Vanta doesn't just help you check boxes, it helps you build real trust at scale.

通过持续监控、实时报告和可即时分享的安全审查，Vanta 让你轻松向客户、合作伙伴和投资者证明你的安全状况。

With continuous monitoring, real time reporting, and security reviews you can share instantly, Vanta makes it easy to prove your security posture to customers, partners, and investors.

因此，你不再需要为审计和电子表格手忙脚乱，而是获得一个后台运行的系统，持续帮你保持合规、降低风险，并让你的业务更有信心地加速发展。

So instead of scrambling for audits and spreadsheets, you get a system that works in the background, keeping you compliant, reducing risk, and helping your business move faster with confidence.

你可以在 mana.com/markets 开始使用。

You can get started at mana.com/markets.

那是 vanta.com/markets。

That's vanta.com/markets.

Vanta.com/markets。

Vanta.com/markets.

本节目由 Public 支持，Public 是为那些认真对待投资的人打造的投资平台。

Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously on Public.

你可以构建一个包含股票、债券和期权的多资产投资组合，现在还能生成资产，让你通过人工智能将任何想法转化为可投资的指数。

You can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, and options, now generated assets, which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI.

这一切都始于你的提示，例如：现金流充裕的可再生能源公司，或年收入增长率超过 20% 的半导体供应商。

It all starts with your prompt from renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% a year over year.

你可以直接输入任何提示，让人工智能为你工作。

You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work.

它会筛选成千上万只股票，构建一个独一无二的指数，并允许你将其与标普500指数进行回测，然后只需点击几下即可投资。

It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index, and lets you back test it against the S and P 500, then you can invest in a few clicks.

生成资产就像具有无限可能的ETF，完全可定制，基于你的观点，而非他人的观点。

Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's.

别人的。

Else's.

前往 public.com/profg，转账投资组合即可获得无上限的1%奖励。

Go to public.com/profg and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio.

那就是 public.com/profg。

That's public.com/profg.

本服务由Public Investing提供，经纪服务由Open to the Public Investing Inc.提供，成员FINRA和SIPC；投资顾问服务由Public Advisors LLC提供，系SEC注册投资顾问。

Paid for by Public Investing, brokered services by Open to the Public Investing Inc, member FINRA and SIPC advisory services by Public Advisors LLC, SEC registered adviser.

生成资产是一个交互式分析工具的输出结果。

Generated assets is an interactive analysis tool output.

仅用于信息参考，不构成任何投资建议或推荐。

It's for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice.

完整披露信息请访问 public.com/disclosures。

Complete disclosures available at public.com/disclosures.

我们继续回到 Prof G Markets。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

目前对 OpenAI 的一个主要批评是，它同时做的事情太多了。

A big criticism of OpenAI right now is that it's doing too much at once.

该公司正在同时处理从视频生成器 SORA，到新网页浏览器，再到硬件的广泛项目。

The company is juggling a wide range of projects from SORA, its video generator, to a new web browser, to hardware.

据《华尔街日报》报道，员工表示，这种面面俱到的做法导致了缺乏专注，并使公司战略更难理解。

According to the Wall Street Journal, employees say that this do everything approach has created a lack of focus and made it harder to understand the company's strategy.

这种担忧现在也开始在管理层中浮现。

That concern is now starting to surface among the leadership as well.

应用部门的首席执行官最近对员工表示：'我们不能因为被支线任务分散注意力而错过这个关键时刻。'

The CEO of applications recently told employees, quote, we cannot miss this moment because we are distracted by side quests.

因此，所有这些都引发了一个更广泛的问题。

So all of this raises a broader question.

公司如何决定何时专注于核心业务，何时追逐新机会？

How does a company decide when to double down on its core business or when to chase new opportunities?

斯科特，我对这一点非常感兴趣，我想听听你的看法，因为你过去曾经营过多家企业。

Scott, I was very interested to see this, and I wanted to get your views on it because you've run multiple businesses in the past.

有些非常成功。

Some have been very successful.

有些则不太成功。

Some have been less successful.

你知道成功或失败需要什么。

You know what it takes to either win or fail.

你对这个困境怎么看？

What do you think of this dilemma?

这可以说是OpenAI——目前全球排名第一的AI公司——所面临的一个经典商业战略问题，那就是：我们是专注于核心业务，还是去玩这些旁支项目，看看能否碰出一些好结果？

It's sort of a classic business strategy question that OpenAI, the number one AI company in the world right now, is facing, and that is, do we focus on the core thing, or do we go have fun in these side projects and see if if something good can happen?

我的大多数企业都是为首席营销官和首席执行官提供咨询。

Well, the the majority of my businesses have been advising CMOs and CEOs.

每个优秀的CEO都需要思考的一个真正问题是，或者他或她需要具备的整体认知是：当你是一名初级或中级员工时，你一直在想我们能做些什么？

And the the real question every good CEO needs to ask or the gestalt he or she needs to When you're a junior level or mid level employee, you're trying to think about what could we do?

我们能进入哪些新市场？

What could we what new markets?

我们能拓展哪些新地区？

What new geographies?

你试图寻找增长的机会。

And you're trying to find areas of growth.

我如何提高效率？

How do I create more efficiency?

我如何推动公司增长？

How do I grow the company?

我们能做些什么？

What could we do?

我们应该做什么？

What should we do?

当你成为CEO时，更重要的问题不是该做什么，而是不该做什么。

When you become a CEO, the bigger question is not what to do, it's what not to do.

因为每天你都会收到来自供应商、投资银行家、并购人员、新员工或想崭露头角的现有员工的各种好点子。

Because every day, you're gonna be pitched on great ideas from vendors, investment bankers, the ones who make acquisitions, new employees trying to make a or existing employees trying to make a name for themselves.

每个人都想在你的资本上慷慨大方、富有远见。

Everyone has everyone wants to be generous and visionary with your capital.

我认为萨姆·阿尔特曼和OpenAI的做法非常明智，因为具体性会挤出泛泛而谈，专注是任何战略能否成功的关键要素。

And if you look at this is a really good move on the part of Sam Altman and OpenAI because the the specific crowds out the general focus is the key component of almost any strategy if it wants to work.

甚至在个人层面上，我也讨厌副业。

I even think on a personal level, I hate side hustles.

你想成功吗？

You wanna be successful?

找到你擅长的事情，全力以赴。

Find something you're good at, go a 110% in.

富有和非常富有的区别在于最后那10%，而这来自于极致的专注。

And the difference between being wealthy and being very wealthy is the last 10%, and that comes from extreme focus.

如果你有副业，那就说明你还没找到正确的主业。

And if you have side hustles, it means you haven't found the right main hustle.

所以，如果你把副业当作探索手段，直到它变成主业，那没问题。

So if you have side hustles as a means of exploring something until it becomes a main hustle, fine.

但如果你看看 Alphabet 或 Google，他们请来了埃里克·施密特这位出色的管理者来帮助公司扩张。

But if you look at Alphabet or Google, they brought in Eric Schmidt, a fantastic manager, to help scale the company.

但真正大幅提升了股东价值、却未得到应有认可的，是首席财务官露丝·佩拉特。

But then the adult in the room who actually ended up growing shareholder value a great amount and doesn't get the credit she deserves is Ruth Peratt, the CFO.

她们是从摩根士丹利请来的。

They brought her in from Morgan Stanley.

她一来就问：这些乱七八糟的东西到底是什么？

And the first thing she did was like, what the fuck is all this shit?

谢尔盖和拉里那些没人敢说不的宠物项目，到底都是些什么？

What are all these pet projects from Sergei and Larry that nobody wants to say no to?

他们甚至有一个项目，使命居然是治愈死亡。

They literally had a project whose mission was to cure death.

露丝说，好吧。

And and Ruth said, okay.

用你自己的钱，花你自己的时间去做。

Do that with your own money and on your own time.

她砍掉了大量项目，把团队的精力集中在搜索这个有史以来最惊人的赚钱机器上，然后说，你知道吗，搜索领域每多投入一美元，就能创造巨额收益。

And she killed a ton of projects and focused people on this unbelievable greatest greatest cash machine tollbooth in the history of mankind called search, and then said, you know, another dollar in search creates a shit ton of money.

所以，别拿任何东西来找我，除非你能说服我，它能在合理的期限内带来巨额收益。

So don't bring anything to me that you can't convince me isn't going to create a shit ton of money with some reasonable timeline.

他们之前涉足的方向太多了，值得称赞的是，萨姆和他们的领导层正在集中精力。

So they have gone too in way too many directions, and it's a credit to Sam and their leadership that they're focusing.

而且，他们也有强烈的动机去聚焦，因为企业市场——我认为这才是这里更重要的部分——Anthropic正在全面压制OpenAI。

And also, have huge incentive to focus because enterprise market, which I think is the more important part of the market here, Anthropic is kicking the shit out of OpenAI.

所以，他们正在做应该做的事。

And so they are doing what they should be doing.

他们正在集中精力。

They are focusing.

所以我认为这是OpenAI的一个非常明智的举措。

So this is this is sort of a I think this is a really smart move for OpenAI.

我觉得这绝对是正确的做法。

I think it's absolutely the right thing to do.

说到干扰，我们能聊聊元宇宙吗，埃德？

And speaking of distractions, can we talk a little bit about the metaverse, Ed?

我们能聊聊元宇宙吗？

Can we talk a little bit about the meta?

我不知道你有没有看到，但Meta的那些人发现他们把公司名字起错了。

I don't know if you saw this, but it ends up that the good people at Meta have decided they they renamed the company incorrectly.

是的。

Yes.

这个没有身体的世界并不是未来。

And that, that this legless world is not the future.

克莱尔，碰巧有没有一段关于我对这个问题看法的视频？

Claire, by chance, per chance, do we have a clip about my views on this?

在播放之前，我只想确保每个人都知道我们在谈什么，也就是Meta的副项目——也许他们称之为主要项目——元宇宙。他们投入了800亿美元来打造这个名为Horizon Worlds的元宇宙平台。

Well, before we before we play it, I just wanna make sure everyone knows what we're talking about, which is that Meta's side project, I guess maybe they called it their main project, but the side project of the metaverse, they've invested $80,000,000,000 into creating this metaverse platform called Horizon Worlds.

人们可能还记得2021年和2022年，那时马克·扎克伯格一直在谈论这个。

People may remember from 2021 and 2022 when this is what all that Mark Zuckerberg was talking about.

就在上周，他们决定关闭这个平台。

As of last week, they are shutting that platform down.

现在，我们来播放这段视频。

Now let's cue the clip.

过去五年里最大的战略失误，就是Meta决定将元宇宙作为新的增长引擎。

What is probably the biggest strategic misstep of the last five years was Meta deciding that the new growth engine would be the metaverse.

不。

No.

不是这样的。

It's not.

不管你们公司叫什么名字都没关系。

Doesn't matter what the name of your company is.

这行不通。

This is not working.

你有个无法控制的人。

You got a guy who can't be controlled.

他掌控着公司。

He controls the company.

他全身心投入元宇宙。

He's all in on the metaverse.

他本来就很有钱。

He's gonna he's already rich.

他不在乎钱。

He doesn't care about money.

所以他的态度是：我来给你看看。

So his attitude is, I'll show you.

我要让所有人证明自己错了，继续全身心投入，花数百亿美元在元宇宙上。

I'm gonna prove everyone wrong and keep going all in and spending tens of billions of dollars on the metaverse.

股东们只能坐在后排，系着安全带，却无法下车。

And shareholders are in the back seat, you know, buckled in, and they can't get out.

这趟被称为元宇宙的疯狂、令人作呕的旅程，车门都被锁死了。

And the doors are locked on this this crazy nauseating ride called the the metaverse.

据我所知，元宇宙只不过是一群在线创建的牢房式隔离间，给那些生活根本没运转起来的人用的。

As far as I can tell, the metaverse is just a bunch of in cell panic rooms created online for people who have it just isn't working.

我最喜欢的一个关于Horizon世界之类的统计数据是，MySpace

I mean, my favorite stat about Horizon's world or whatever it is is that MySpace

目前的访问量超过了Facebook的

currently gets more traffic than Facebook's

元宇宙版本。

version of the metaverse.

所以，你看，这是一场史上最严重的分心和幻觉，而且甚至不是一种共识性的幻觉。

So, look, this was the mother of all distractions and hallucinations, and it wasn't even consensual hallucination.

它从来就没有丝毫道理。

It has never made any sense.

这又回到了一个基本的人类学真理：纵观历史，能吃的东西或会吃你的东西，从来不会直接朝你冲过来。

And it went back to just this basic anthropological truism, and that is throughout history, the things you could eat or could eat you don't come straight at you.

它们总是从你的侧面或背后袭来。

They come at you from your side or behind you.

因此，如果你的周边视觉移动得太快，你会感到不安，甚至恶心。

And so you get uneasy and even nauseous if you can't if your peripheral vision is moving too fast.

而人们竟然打算戴着混合现实头显到处走动、观看视频——我记得卡拉曾和我争论过空间计算的未来。

And the idea that people were gonna take their mixed reality headset with them and start watching I mean, I remember Kara arguing with me about the future of spatial computing.

我戴上这种设备才八秒钟，就觉得这太他妈愚蠢、太虚无了，我们居然想进入另一个宇宙。

I I put one of these things on for eight seconds, and I'm like, this is so fucking stupid and so nihilistic that we wanna go into another universe.

我们的物种早已习惯并深深喜爱这个现实世界。

Our species is really used to and really fond of this universe.

而那些怪人却想把我们带进另一个宇宙。

And this notion that these weirdos wanna take us into another universe.

好吧。

Okay.

我理解沉浸式体验。

I get immersive experiences.

我和别人一样喜欢IMAX。

I like IMAX as much as the next person.

这是一项小生意。

It's a small business.

我喜欢穹顶剧场，但只待几个小时，出来时我就感觉像一块被捶打过的牛腩，感官超载得不行。

I enjoy the Sphere, but for only a couple hours, I feel like a piece of beaten flank steak by the time I leave there in terms of sensory overload.

顺便说一句，IMAX其实并不是一门好生意。

By the way, IMAX really hasn't been a good business.

穹顶剧场据说仍在亏损。

The Sphere is supposedly still losing money.

你想要的生活方式，是经历一系列在这个宇宙中美好的体验，在这里你能掌控自己的周边视觉。

The the way you wanna live life is you wanna have a series of experiences that are wonderful in this universe where you have control of your peripheral vision.

广告牌之所以如此成功，且能获得不错的千次展示成本，原因在于，尽管你并没有在高速路边真正阅读广告牌，但你非常清楚它的存在，因为它关乎威胁与机会。

And the reason why billboards are so incredibly still successful and get decent CPMs is despite the fact you're not reading a billboard on the side of the highway, you're very conscious of it because it's threats and opportunities.

最基础的人类学或行为学研究都会指出，有百分之四十的人把这种荒唐玩意儿当避孕套戴在头上，二十分钟内就会感到恶心，但他还是继续投入，把700亿美元的资金砸进了这个项目。

And just the most basic level of anthropological or behavioral research would have said that, okay, forty percent of the people putting this nonsense as condom on their head, that they're getting nauseous within twenty minutes, and yet he kept pouring he poured $70,000,000,000 of capital into this thing.

所以我觉得，如果不是因为这家伙是个商业天才，自打这个荒唐项目启动以来已经为股东创造了大约2万亿美元的价值，这简直就是一次巨大的失败。

And so I just think this was if it hadn't been for the fact that the guy is a business genius and has added probably $2,000,000,000,000 in shareholder value since they started this nonsense, this is an enormous thud.

这事儿拖得太久了。

It went way too long.

实在太久了。

Way too long.

当你是一家像Meta这样的公司，拥有如此强劲的现金流时，你可以大胆押注。

When you're a company like Meta and you have those cash flows, you can take big swings.

十亿、五十亿、一百亿。

1,000,000,000, 5,000,000,000, 10,000,000,000.

但把钱一直往里砸到700亿美元，

But to keep pouring money up to 70,000,000,000

还把整个公司改了名字。

And to rename the entire company.

这就是我们都忘记的事情。

This is what we all forget.

他们把整个东西都改名了。

They renamed the whole thing.

他们对这件事太有信心了。

They were so confident about this.

这简直难以置信。

It's unbelievable.

各位，就在我们录制时传来最新消息：根据Meta的说法，Horizon Worlds并不会关闭。

Guys, breaking as we record this, Horizon Worlds is not shutting down after all according to Meta.

胡说八道。

Bullshit.

这是他们在试图体面地收场。

This is them trying to have peace with honor.

这东西已经死了。

This thing is dead.

这东西已经死了。

This thing is dead.

他们还想让它开心点，然后送进临终关怀。

They're gonna try and make it happy and put it in hospice.

随便吧。

Whatever.

你一年前失去了Pop Pop。

You lost pop pop a year ago.

也许他还在用导尿管，脑子里还有脑电波。

Maybe he still has catheter, and there there's brain waves there.

这东西已经完了。

This thing's being done.

这东西正在被缓慢地安乐死。

This thing's being euthanized slowly.

他们发什么新闻稿我都不在乎。

I don't care what their press release says.

让我读给你看看我在TechCrunch上看到的内容。

Let me just read you what I'm seeing on TechCrunch.

quote，我们就在今天刚刚决定，将继续让Horizon Worlds在VR中运行，Bosworth在Instagram故事的问答环节中表示，当时有一位该应用的粉丝联系他们，说他们对这一决定感到心碎。

Quote, we have decided just today, in fact, that we will keep Horizon Worlds working in VR, Bosworth said as part of an Instagram stories q and a after a fan of the app reached out to say they were, quote, heartbroken about the decision.

所以让我

So let me

跟奶奶说再见吧，埃德。

just Say goodbye to Nana, Ed.

跟奶奶说再见。

Say goodbye to Nana.

末日临近了。

The end is nigh.

是的。

Yeah.

这引发了关于什么才是一个好的副项目的疑问，因为这个项目——Horizon Worlds，Meta的元宇宙——显然是一个非常糟糕的副项目。

It does bring up this question of what makes a good side project because this one was Horizon Worlds, Meta's Metaverse, clearly a very bad side project.

没成功。

Did not work.

Apple Vision Pro 看起来也会是类似的故事。

Apple Vision Pro looks like it's gonna be a very similar story.

它并没有真正发挥作用。

It's not really working.

他们开始逐步收尾。

They're beginning to wind things down.

Google Glass，我的意思是，我们在这里看到一个趋势：可穿戴设备，尤其是虚拟现实可穿戴设备，并不怎么样。

Google Glass I mean, we're seeing a theme here that wearables or at least virtual reality wearables are not really great.

Google Glass 也是类似的情况。

Google Glass was a similar story.

没成功。

Didn't work.

关闭了。

Shut it down.

谷歌Plus是另一个有趣的副项目。

Google Plus was another interesting side project.

这是谷歌的社交媒体竞争对手，他们在尝试了整整十年后，于2019年关闭了它。

That was Google's social media competitor, which they shut down in 2019 after trying to get it off the ground for literally ten years.

有很多副项目彻底失败的例子，根本行不通。

There are many examples of side projects being total failures, and it doesn't work.

与此同时，也有一些副项目取得了巨大成功。

At the same time, there are some side projects that have been really successful.

例如，还是以谷歌为例，Waymo。

For example, just to stick with Google, Waymo.

Waymo最初是谷歌在2009年启动的自动驾驶项目。

Waymo started out as Google project chauffeur, in 2009.

我认为最好的例子，可能是历史上最成功的副项目，那就是AWS。

I think the best example probably would be the best side project in history would have to be AWS.

说得很对。

Great point.

它最初是亚马逊内部的一个项目，当时他们意识到，不同团队之间的沟通相当困难。

Which started out as this internal thing where Amazon realized, oh, it's kind of difficult to communicate across different teams.

让我们构建一套数字基础设施。

Let's build this digital infrastructure.

他们把它做出来了。

They built it.

然后安迪·贾西意识到，不如把这个变成一项业务。

And then Andy Jassy realizes, actually, let's turn this into a business.

于是他开始销售它，如今它贡献了公司超过一半的运营利润。

And so he started to sell it, and now it makes up more than half of the operating profit for the company.

杰夫·贝佐斯本人曾称 AWS 为‘商业史上最大的商业运气’。

Jeff Bezos himself has called AWS, quote, the greatest piece of business luck in the history of business.

这真是一个出色的副项目。

That was a great side project.

所以我认为这引出了一个有趣的问题。

So I think that becomes this interesting question.

那么，什么样的副项目才算好呢？

Like, what makes a good side project?

它在什么情况下能成功？

What when does it work?

它在什么情况下会失败？

When does it not work?

管理者和高管们该如何建立一个框架，以判断哪些项目应该批准，哪些应该否决？

And how can managers and executives take a framework moving forward to understand which things to green light and which things to say no to?

这归根结底是管理问题。我最早的客户之一是李维斯公司，他们推出了Dockers，这是历史上从零到十亿美元最快的衣服品牌。

It comes down to management, and that is so one of my first clients was Levi Strauss and Co, and they launched, they launched Dockers, which was the fastest zero to billion garment garment brand in history.

随后，他们又推出了一款新产品，叫Slates。

And then they launched a new thing called Slates.

结果是，一位高级管理人员说：这是我的愿景。

And what happens is is that a very senior person says, this is my vision.

这是我的孩子。

This is my baby.

而你取悦这个人、并可能在另外两位合格的人选中脱颖而出的方式，就是告诉他们Slates有多棒，他们有多有远见，然后你开始忽视真实的数据。

And the way you please that person and perhaps get promoted over two other people qualified is you tell them how amazing SLAITS is and what a visionary they are, and you start to ignore the actual data.

这归结为做一件非常困难的事情。

And it comes down to doing something really difficult.

来自三个MS的便利贴是一个副项目。

Post it notes from three ms was a side project.

对吧？

Right?

这归结于对自己负责，并在一开始就设定合理的衡量标准。

It comes down to holding yourself accountable and setting up reasonable metrics at the outset.

我们正在推出新的播客。

We are launching new podcasts.

我们推出了《中国解读》。

We launched China Decode.

我说，好吧。

And I said, okay.

我们在X日期前的三个月、六个月、十二个月内推出了《激进中间派》。

We launched raging moderates by x date within three months, six months, twelve months.

这些是定义成功与否的指标。

These are the metrics that define success or not.

问题是，你会说服自己相信那个丑陋的继子是你的孩子，而且还觉得它很美。

And the problem is you talk yourself into believing that your ugly step headed child is your child, and it's beautiful.

不。

No.

你必须有能力做出痛下杀手的决定。

You have to be able to perform infanticide.

Facebook曾经推出过手机。

Facebook had a phone.

亚马逊曾进入拍卖领域，并且做得对。

Amazon went into auctions, and they did it the right way.

我认为贝索斯是一个非常自律的管理者，他说：好吧。

And I think Bezos is a very disciplined operator and said, okay.

亚马逊也做过手机。

Amazon had a phone.

他们说好的。

They said Yeah.

他们做过手机。

They had a phone.

我刚刚想起来。

I just remembered.

他们说，好吧。

They said, okay.

如果到 y 日期前没有达到 x 的用户增长，我们就取消项目。

If it doesn't get x pickup by y date, we're pulling the plug.

成功的小项目关键不在于那些成功的项目。

The key to successful side projects is not the ones that work.

而在于你愿意放弃的那些项目，因为你只有有限的资源去支持一个方向。

It's the ones you're willing to kill because you only have so much wood to put behind an arrow.

所以一定要寻找增长机会。

So absolutely look for growth.

狠狠地测试它，但同时，我们刚刚推出了Substack策略，也就是订阅收入。

Battle test the shit out of it, but also, you know, we just launched the Substack strategy, subscription revenue.

我们制定了现实但又具有挑战性的目标。

We have realistic, but yet at the same time aggressive benchmarks.

如果我们没达到这些目标，我们会聚在一起，决定是否终止这个项目。

And if we don't hit them, we're gonna get together as a group, and we're gonna decide whether to pull the plug on it.

不幸的是，到目前为止它非常成功。

Unfortunately, it's very successful so far.

请访问我们的Substack页面。

Please visit us on Substack.

但CFO的职责是敢于尝试新事物，也有勇气在它们不奏效时果断终止，并说：好吧，停止。

But but a CO's job is to have the stones to try new things and to have the backbone to kill them when they're not working and to say, okay, Slates.

那实际上是李维斯的第三个品牌。

That was actually a third brand from Levi's.

我觉得它叫Slates。

I think it was called Slates.

好的，Slates。

Okay, Slates.

这是个正确的想法。

This was the right idea.

我们做出了正确的决定。

We made the right decision.

我们承担风险很重要。

It's important we take risks.

它没有奏效。

It's not working.

终止它。

Kill it.

你知道，它只是需要更多时间，或者需要更多资金。

And, you know, well, it just needs more time or it just needs more capital.

大概不会。

Probably not.

这些事情中，大多数成功的案例可能起步缓慢，但通常，那些真正有效的项目都会亮起一堆绿色的指示灯。

These things, the most of them that work, they may get out of the gate slowly, but usually, there's a lot of blinking green lights on the shit that works.

但再说一遍，实际情况是，一位资深经理在自己的legacy中看到它时，会非常欣赏愿意和他们一起踏上阿亚瓦斯卡之旅的人。

But again, what happens is a senior manager sees sees it at their legacy and really appreciates anyone who's willing to go on their Ayahuasca trip with them.

所以归根结底还是领导力的问题，也就是说，好吧。

So it just comes down to leadership, and that's to say, okay.

HBO Go、HBO Now、HBO Joey 一袋甜甜圈。

HBO Go, HBO Now, HBO Joey bag of donuts.

好了，各位。

Alright, folks.

我理解所有子品牌都在试图针对不同的受众和不同的技术平台。

I get all the sub brands trying to address different audiences and different technology platforms.

这行不通。

It's not working.

我们还是回到HBO吧。

Let's just go back to HBO.

归根结底是领导力的问题，因为你们支付薪酬的人，总的来说，大多会说任何让你感觉良好的话。

So it comes down to leadership because people you are paying, generally speaking, most of them will say whatever the fuck makes you feel good.

因为如果某人让你感觉良好，你就更倾向于想要提拔他。

Because if someone makes you feel good, you're more inclined to want to promote them.

但这并不是衡量标准。

Well, that's not the litmus test.

这个人是否真的能提升股东价值，是否能设定明确、具体的指标，并让你和他自己都负起责任？

Is this person really good for shareholder value and setting up really tangible hard metrics and and holding you and themselves

承担责任。

accountable.

是的。

Yeah.

这是个非常好的观点。

It's such a good point.

我们团队之前讨论过这个问题，认为如果要启动一个副项目，有一些基本问题至关重要，决定了它是否值得做。

We were discussing this as a team, and that there were some basic questions that we think are pretty crucial to if you're going to launch a side project if it makes sense.

我们觉得这里有三个相关的问题。

Three questions that we think are relevant here.

第一，你有资金来承担这个赌注吗？

One, do you have the money to make the bet?

这是一个非常重要的根本性问题。

And that's a very important fundamental question.

你需要有持续的现金流入。

Like, you need to have cash coming in the door.

我的意思是，亚马逊在推出AWS之前就已经明白了这一点。

I mean, that's Amazon had figured that out before they launched AWS.

当时他们已经有了可观的现金流，因此才能做出这个决定。

They had significant cash flows at that point, and then they had the they were able to make that bet.

你也可以认为，Meta当时也具备这样的条件。

You could argue that Meta had that positioning as well.

第二个问题是，它是否在利用现有的基础设施？

The second question is, is it leveraging existing infrastructure?

比如，你是不是最适合做这件事的人？

Like, are you the right person to be doing it?

如果你是一个服装品牌，那就不行。

If you're, like, a clothing brand, like, no.

你不应该仅仅因为觉得这是个好主意，就去开一家糖果公司。

You shouldn't launch, like, a candy company just because you think it's a good idea.

这不在你的专长范围内，所以你不该涉足这个领域。

That's not your wheelhouse, so you shouldn't be getting into that.

第三点，这也是我认为Meta没有真正质疑、没有正确回答，甚至可能根本没问过自己的问题。

And then the third thing, and this is the the the thing that I think Meta didn't really question that Meta did not answer correctly or perhaps never even asked themselves.

那就是，这真的是个好主意吗？

And that is, is it actually a good idea?

这本身没什么帮助，但也许我们可以换种说法：它是否真正解决了人们存在的一个真实问题？

It's not that helpful, but maybe we could put it in terms of, is it actually solving a problem, a real problem that people have?

如果答案是否定的，你就根本不能做，因为无论投入多少资金，如我们所见，都无法把一个非常愚蠢、非常糟糕的想法变成一个好想法。

And if the answer is no, you just can't do it because no amount of capital as we saw will turn a very stupid idea, a very bad idea into a good idea.

如果想法本身很愚蠢，钱也解决不了问题。

The money doesn't solve the problem if the idea is stupid.

这似乎就是Meta犯的错误：他们从未真正思考过这个问题：这甚至是个好主意吗？

And that seems to be this mistake that Meta made is they never really thought to ask themselves, is this even a good idea?

我们真的在解决人们想要解决的问题吗？

Is this are we actually solving a problem here that people want to be solved?

答案是否定的。

The answer is no.

然后他们投入了巨额资金，可能还投入了大量自尊和 ego，陷入了沉没成本谬误，以至于他们决定必须继续下去，因为我们已经孤注一掷了。

And then they invested so much money into it, probably so much pride and ego into it as well, victims of the sunk cost fallacy, to the point where they decided, like, we have to keep going because we've bet the ranch.

我们已经把所有赌注都押在这上面了。

We've bet the farm on it.

我们甚至把公司的名字都押在了这个项目上，指望它能成功。

We've literally bet the name of the company on this working out.

而我们现在来到了2026年，结果并不成功。

And here we are in twenty twenty six, and it didn't work.

我唯一要补充的是，好点子和坏点子之间，有时候最好的点子看起来简直疯狂，同时又像是个坏点子，而有时候看似逻辑严密的东西却偏偏行不通。

The only answer I would add to that is that a good versus a bad idea, sometimes the best ideas are just fucking crazy and feel like a bad idea at the same time, and sometimes logical stuff just doesn't work out.

我认为你需要从主观和定性的角度转向客观和定量的视角，一个优秀的管理者和优秀的CEO会说：好吧，成功是什么样子的？

I think that you need to veer away from the subjective and the qualitative towards the objective and the quantitative, and that is a good manager and a good CEO says, alright, what does success look like?

然后设定明确的量化指标，说在90天内，我们要评估我们设想的成功标准，同时也明确失败的标准，并持续重新评估我们是否——还有管理与CEO们都知道但往往不践行的一个基本经济概念：沉没成本。

And then put hard metrics around it and say in ninety days, we're gonna look at what we think success would look like, and also what does failure look like, and constantly reevaluate whether we're and also a basic economic term that management and CEOs understand, but they don't really live by is the notion of sunk costs.

也就是说，我们已经投入了如此多的能量和资本到这件事上。

And that is we've put so much energy and so much capital into this thing.

我们很喜欢它。

We love it.

你知道的？

You know?

不。

No.

那已经过去了。

That's gone.

从现在开始，如果我们从零开始，还会往这个项目里投更多钱吗？

From this point forward, if we were at a standing start, would we put more money into this?

这才是唯一重要的问题。

That's the only question that mattered.

那些钱已经没了。

That money's gone.

这已经不重要了。

It doesn't matter.

那些投入、花掉的时间，根本无所谓。

That effort gone, the time spent on it, doesn't fucking matter.

如果我们现在从零开始，完全作为没有历史投资、没有投入、没有情感牵绊的外部投资者，看着这个项目当前的状态和进展，是好是坏，我们还会继续投资吗？

From a standing start here and now, where this project is, how it's going, how well, or how not well it's going, would we continue to fund this if we were outside investors who had no legacy investment, no effort, no affinity, no affection for it.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

想获取更多市场内容，请前往 profgmarkets.com 订阅我们的通讯。

And for even more Markets content, sign up for our newsletter at profgmarkets.com.

本节目由 ShipStation 赞助。

Support for the show comes from ShipStation.

当您的公司正在成长时，没有什么比客户因无法收到您的产品而停止增长更致命的了。

When your company is growing, nothing stops that growth quite like a bad customer because they couldn't get your product.

幸运的是，ShipStation 的智能平台将订单管理、比价、库存与退货、仓储系统以及全面的分析功能全部整合在一个地方。

Luckily, ShipStation's intelligence driven platform brings order management, rate shopping, inventory and returns, warehouse systems, and comprehensive analytics all in one place.

他们表示，仅订单履行一项，每周就能为您节省多达十五小时的时间。

They say they can even save you up to fifteen hours of time per week on order fulfillment.

ShipStation 会自动选择合适的快递公司，找到最优价格，批量打印运单，并向您的客户发送物流跟踪信息。

ShipStation automatically chooses the right carrier, finds the best rate, prints labels in bulk, and even sends tracking updates to your customers.

ShipStation 甚至会对比 USPS、UPS 和 FedEx 等主要全球快递公司的价格，结合您已有的折扣，为每笔订单选择最划算的配送方案，最高可节省 90% 的运费。

ShipStation even compares rates across major global carriers like USPS, UPS, and FedEx, including any discounts you already have to select the best shipping option for every order with savings of up to 90% off.

您可以免费试用 ShipStation 六十天，全程享有所有功能。

You can try ShipStation free for sixty days with full access to all features.

无需信用卡。

No credit card needed.

前往 shipstation.com 并使用代码 MARKETS 免费使用六十天。

Go to shipstation.com and use code MARKETS for sixty days for free.

六十天的时间足以让你清楚地看到每笔发货节省了多少时间和金钱。

Sixty days gives you plenty of time to see exactly how much time and money you're saving on every shipment.

那就是 shipstation.com，代码 markets。

That's shipstation.com code markets.

shipstation.com，代码 markets。

Shipstation.com code markets.

今天节目的赞助商是 Grammarly。

Support for today's show comes from Grammarly.

从邮件和报告到提案和更新，如今的工作要求清晰的思维和自信的沟通。

From emails and reports to proposals and updates, work today demands clear thinking and confident communication.

当每条信息都至关重要时，显得仓促或千篇一律是行不通的。

And when every message counts, sounding rushed or generic just doesn't cut it.

Grammarly 让你在一个地方集中思考并完成工作，它内置了多种智能助手，帮助你表达得更自然、更有吸引力。

Grammarly gives you one place to think right and finish your work, and it's loaded with agents that help you sound natural and engaging.

借助 Grammarly AI，你可以更快地记录想法，并在草稿和定稿之间更顺畅地过渡。

With Grammarly AI, you get ideas down faster and move from draft to done with less friction.

你可以使用 AI 聊天功能来头脑风暴、规划清晰的草稿，并根据你当前的工作内容获得上下文感知的修改建议来完善文稿。

You can use AI chat to brainstorm ideas, outline a solid draft, and refine it with context aware suggestions that fit what you are working on.

Grammarly AI 还能帮你更有效地沟通，通过预判读者可能的反应来调整语气。

Grammarly AI also allows you to communicate more effectively by getting a gut check on how readers might react.

调整措辞、清晰度和风格，让你的写作听起来像你自己，而不是千篇一律的 AI 语言。

Adjust phrasing, clarity, and style so your writing sounds like you, not generic AI.

你甚至可以简化复杂的想法，让你的信息清晰、迅速地传达出去。

You can even simplify complex ideas so your message lines clearly and quickly.

此外，Grammarly 表示，90% 的专业人士在撰写和编辑工作时都节省了时间。

Plus, Grammarly says that 90% of professionals have saved time writing and editing their work.

Grammarly 可以无缝集成在超过 50 万个应用程序和网站中，无论何时你需要帮助，它都会在你身边。

Grammarly works seamlessly across more than 500,000 apps and websites, so your support is always there when you need it.

在这个充斥着通用AI的世界里，别让自己听起来和别人一样。

In a world of generic AI, don't sound like everyone else.

有了Grammarly，你永远不会那样。

With Grammarly, you never will.

前往grammarly.com免费下载Grammarly。

Download Grammarly for free at grammarly.com.

就是grammarly.com。

That's grammarly.com.

本节目由SoFi赞助。

Support for the show comes from SoFi.

在这个经济环境中，你最重要的优先事项应该是掌控好自己的财务。

To stay ahead in this economy, your number one priority should be staying on top of your finances.

面对通货膨胀和市场波动，你承受不起被动的态度。

With inflation and market shifts, you can't afford to be passive.

你需要主动规划每一分钱的去向。

You need to be proactive about where every dollar is going.

而其中一部分就是拥有一家真正为你服务的银行。

And part of that is having a bank that actually works for you.

这就是SoFi。

Enter SoFi.

SoFi Plus是一种高级会员服务，能让你更聪明地花每一分钱。

SoFi Plus is a premium membership, a smart way to get more for your money.

SoFi Plus包含众多福利，通过参与符合条件的活动，每年可解锁一千美元或更多的价值。

SoFi Plus is packed with benefits and unlock a thousand or more in annual value with qualifying activities.

这些福利包括储蓄和IRA投资的有竞争力的年化收益率，以及与SoFi财富理财规划师的一对一咨询机会。

Values including a competitive APY on savings and investment match for your IRA and access to one on one sessions with SoFi Wealth Financial Planners.

你只需每月支付10美元即可开始使用。

You can get started for $10 a month.

如果你在现在到4月15日期间加入SoFi Plus，就有机会赢取超过75,000美元的现金大奖。

And if you join SoFi Plus between now and April 15, you'll have a chance to win over $75,000 in cash.

SoFi还将为20位个人提供1,000美元的现金奖励，并为50位获奖者提供一年免费的SoFi Plus会员资格。

SoFi is also giving 20 individuals a thousand dollars in cash prizes and 50 winners free SoFi Plus memberships for a year.

前往 sofi.com/scottg 参与活动。

Head to sofi.com/scottg to enter.

条款和条件适用。

Terms and conditions apply.

要了解有关 SoFi Plus 的更多信息，请访问 sofi.com/sofi-plus。

To learn more about SoFi Plus, head to sofi.com/sofi-plus.

我们回到 Prof G Markets 的节目。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

迪士尼终于迎来了新任首席执行官。

Disney finally has a new CEO.

乔什·达马罗于周三正式上任，正值公司面临困难时期。

Josh D'Amaro officially took the helm on Wednesday stepping in at a difficult time for the company.

外部风险，包括伊朗战争，影响了其旅游业；其影视业务也面临逆风，当然，其传统媒体资产仍在持续下滑。

External risks, including the war in Iran, weigh on its tourism business, its studio business faces headwinds, and, of course, its linear assets continue to decline.

举个例子，在连续四年收视率稳步上升后，上星期日的奥斯卡颁奖典礼在 ABC 的观众人数较去年同期下降了 9%。

Just as an example, after four years of steady ratings gains, the Oscars stumbled last Sunday with viewership on ABC falling 9% from a year earlier.

所以，斯科特，乔什·达马罗上周已经接任了。

So, Scott, Josh D'Amouro has taken over, as of last week.

他面前的路非常艰难。

He has, you know, a a steep, road ahead.

你对这位CEO有什么建议？

What would be your advice to the CEO?

你现在会如何让迪士尼重回正轨？

How would you get Disney back on track at this point?

我认为他们应该和奈飞合并。

I think they should merge with Netflix.

我觉得这个行业正在整合，需要巨大的实力。

I I think that this is a business that's consolidating that requires so much heft.

如果我是联邦贸易委员会或司法部的负责人，我觉得这并不是个好主意。

I don't think that's a good idea if I were the head head of the FTC or the DOJ.

但你问我的建议。

But you asked me for advice.

主题公园是一个令人难以置信的业务。

The parks is just an unbelievable business.

我会从主题公园开始，向外扩展到影视制作。

I'd build from the parks out, parks in the studios.

他们会做他们需要做的事。

They'll they'll do what they need to do.

他们会剥离那些下滑的有线电视资产，实现好银行与坏银行的分离。

They'll shed the the declining cable assets so they can go good bank, bad bank.

这应该是一家以活动和体验式公园为核心，拥有强大影视制作能力和清晰家庭定位及流媒体战略的公司。

This should be an events experiential parks company with a really strong studio and a fantastic really clear positioning around around family, around streaming.

我觉得Netflix和Disney+是未来十年内唯一可能留存下来的两家公司。

I feel like Netflix and Disney plus are kind of the only only ones I would I think I know will be around in ten years.

这是一家了不起的公司。

It's an incredible company.

它某种程度上反映了好莱坞过去十年的状况：内容和产品从未如此优秀，但从股东角度看却令人极度失望。

It kind of identified it's sort of a bit of a proxy for how Hollywood has done the last ten years, and that is great content, products never been better, enormous disappointment from a shareholder perspective.

迪士尼股票现在的价格比十年前还要低。

Disney stock is lower than it was ten years ago.

标普指数是多少？

What is the S and P?

标普指数是多少？我不知道。

The S and P is what, I don't know.

从那时起，标普指数翻了两倍，纳斯达克则涨了三倍。

Tripled since then or doubled and the Nasdaq's tripled.

与此同时，如果你投资了迪士尼或者在迪士尼工作并持有期权，那真是巨大的失望。

And meanwhile, if you invested in Disney or worked at Disney and have options, you know, a huge disappointment.

如果从鲍勃·艾格的例子反向推导，给高管们一个教训：宁可早走，也不要晚走。

And if Bob Iger also just to reverse engineer this to a a learning for executives, you're always better off leaving too early than too late.

鲍勃·艾格就是这一点的绝佳体现。

And Bob Iger represents that in spades.

八年前，鲍勃·艾格从越南服役归来，胸前挂满勋章，是彻头彻尾的英雄，也是媒体史上最具威望的人物之一。

Bob Iger came home from Vietnam eight years ago after a tour, medals pinned to his chest, total hero, one of the most respected people in media history.

然后他感到无聊，开始从廉价座位上起哄，从外部发动政变，又回到了越南，如今带着严重的伤势归来。

And then he got bored, started heckling from the cheap seats, performed a coup from outside of the palace, and went back to Vietnam and is coming back with, you know, a massive injury.

他的声誉确实大打折扣。

His reputation has really been diminished.

如果他当初选择远离，他现在很可能是大家热议的民主党总统候选人人选。

If he had just stayed away, he would probably be one of the people everyone's talking about to run for the Democratic nomination for president.

是的。

Mhmm.

他曾经拥有那样的信誉。

He had that kind of credibility.

他曾经拥有那样的光环。

He had that kind of luster.

公平地说，他在广播市场面临诸多逆风，迪士尼的上线也还算成功，但无论如何都回避不了这个问题。

And to be fair, he faced a lot of headwinds in the broadcast market, and Disney's had a good launch, but there's just no getting around it.

作为CEO，你的评价标准是股东股价，而迪士尼的股价表现远低于预期。

The way you're evaluated as a CEO is on the shareholder price, and the share and the shares have vastly underperformed.

你知道吗，在过去十年里，我认为奈飞的股价上涨了四到五倍。

You know, in the last ten years, I think Netflix is up four or five whole fold.

迪士尼的股价则持平。

Disney is flat.

所以，这可以说是一个复杂的遗产。

So, like, this is a mixed legacy.

我觉得在这一点上，我在某个盛大的颁奖典礼上见过泰德·萨兰多斯。

And I think at this point, I called or I saw Ted Sarandos at one of these fancy award shows.

我当时想，好吧。

I'm like, okay.

你因为没有收购华纳兄弟而节省了2200亿美元。

You saved 220,000,000,000 by not buying Warner Brothers.

你的股价上涨了15%。

Your stock's up 15%.

你还有另外6000亿美元。

You've got another 60,000,000,000.

1200亿加600亿是1800亿。

A 120,000,000,000 plus 60,000,000,000 is a 180,000,000,000.

我在想，有个主意。

I'm like, here's an idea.

迪士尼值1780亿美元。

Disney's a 178,000,000,000.

你们为什么不合并呢？

Why wouldn't you merge?

我的意思是，趁联邦贸易委员会和司法部睡着的时候，你们为什么不——我觉得这可不是好事。

I mean, if while the FTC and the DOJ are asleep, why wouldn't you which I think is a bad thing.

你们能不能想象一下Netflix和迪士尼合并？

Why wouldn't you just can you imagine Netflix and Disney?

你能想象迪士尼把《星期三》和《怪奇物语》的IP融入他们的主题公园吗？

Can you imagine Disney getting to incorporate the IP of Wednesdays and stranger things into their parks?

世界上谁会不订阅迪士尼、Disney+或者Netflix中的至少一个呢？

Who in the world could not have a subscription that involves either Disney, Disney plus, or Netflix?