这个市场没有方向（这应该让你感到恐惧）

这提供了一个绝佳机会，让我们观察DNA链、干细胞等在失重环境下如何生长和演化。

An opportunity to see how DNA strands, stem cells, and more might grow and evolve without the weight of the world on them.

现在，一款颠覆性的新型空间站——Starlab即将发射，将开展农业、医学、机器人技术等领域的研究。

Now a game changing new space station, Starlab, is launching that will study agriculture, medicine, robotics, and more.

负责空间站持续设计与工程的空客公司，将其打造为早期科研与真实商业生产的下一代平台。

And Airbus, who lead the ongoing design and engineering of the station, have designed it to be the next evolution for early research and real commercial production.

在StarLab上，科研和制造的规模可以灵活调整。

On StarLab, it's possible to scale the amount of research and manufacturing.

人类在太空中开展的研究，能反哺地球上的我们；微重力环境下的实验，可能彻底改变我们对生物学和医学的理解。

The research humans are doing up in space can help us down here on Earth, and experiments in microgravity might fundamentally change our understanding of biology and medicine.

了解更多关于Starlab以及空客如何推动这一计划的信息，请访问fly.airbus.com/theflightpath。

Learn more about StarLab and how Airbus is making it happen at fly.airbus.com/theflightpath.

本节目由Upwork赞助。

Support for the show comes from Upwork.

经营企业需要大量精力，而没有什么比招聘更能锻炼你的精力和企业运营能力了。

It takes a lot of energy to run a business, and there's nothing to trains your energy and your business more than hiring.

好在有Upwork这个应用，让招聘变得很简单，这样你就能把精力留给更重要的事。

Luckily, there's Upwork, the app that makes hiring easy so you can preserve your energy for the bigger problems.

Upwork是一个一站式平台，帮你找到、雇佣并支付专业自由职业者。

Upwork is a one stop platform to find, hire, and pay expert freelancers.

你可以找到网页与软件开发、数据分析、市场营销、业务运营等领域的专业人才。

You can find specialized talent across web and software development, data and analytics, marketing business operations, and more.

你可以浏览个人资料，查看过往作品，还能获得岗位需求的建议，让你放心 hiring。

And you can browse profiles, review past work, and get help scoping the roles so you can hire with confidence.

Upwork还提供Business Plus服务，让你接触到平台上顶尖的1%人才。

Upwork also has Business Plus, which gives you access to the top 1% of talent on their platform.

借助AI智能筛选，你能在六小时内匹配到合适的自由职业者。

With AI powered shortlisting, you'll get matched to the right freelancer in under six hours.

别再没完没了地海选了。

Skip the endless searching.

至于合同和付款，完全不用操心。

And when it comes down to contracts and payments, don't sweat it.

Upwork 把所有运营事务都帮你打理好了。

Upwork has all the operational stuff covered.

注册免费，发布职位也很简单。

It's free to sign up, and posting a job is easy.

现在就去 upwork.com/markets 发布你的职位，完全免费。

Visit upwork.com/markets right now and post your job for free.

去 upwork.com/markets 找到那些随时准备帮你业务成长的顶尖人才。

That's upwork.com/markets to connect with top talent ready to help your business grow.

就是 upwork.com/markets。

That's upwork.com/markets.

upwork.com/markets。

Upwork.com/markets.

本节目由 Odoo 赞助支持。

Support for the show comes from Odoo.

如果你的业务靠五个不同应用、十二个浏览器标签页，还有那份谁都不敢碰的表格在撑着，那确实该换 Odoo 了。

If your business runs on five different apps, 12 browser tabs, and one spreadsheet that everyone's afraid to touch, it's probably time for Odoo.

Odoo是一款集成式企业管理软件，能把您业务的各个环节整合到一个强大又易用的平台上。

Odoo is an all in one business management software that connects every part of your business into one powerful, easy to use platform.

这样一来，您就不必在一堆互不相通的系统之间来回切换，整个企业都能实时协同运作。

So instead of wasting time switching between disconnected systems, your entire business works together in real time.

团队效率更高了，数据更准确了，您也能真正把精力放在业务增长上。

Your team moves faster, your data stays accurate, and you can actually focus on growing your business.

用一个统一的系统来管理您所有的业务。

Let one unified system run your entire business.

从第一个潜在客户到最终收款，所有流程都集中在同一个地方无缝衔接。

From the first opportunity to the final payment, everything works together in one place.

无论您是小企业，还是在运营大型业务，Odoo都提供一个灵活的平台，能跟着您一起成长。

Whether you're a small business or managing a large operation, Odoo gives you one flexible platform built to grow with you.

现在就去 odoo.com/gmarket 免费试用。

Try today for free at odoo.com/gmarket.

就是 odoo.com/gmarket。

That's odoo.com/gmarket.

我们继续回到Prof G Markets的节目。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

这是最后的预测了。

Final prediction here.

我原本觉得非美国股市还会继续跑赢大盘。

I thought that non US equities would continue to outperform.

到目前为止，确实如此。

So far, that has been true.

MSCI全球指数已经上涨了13%，说明海外股票表现更强。

The MSCI World Index is up 13%, so international stocks are outperforming.

但迈克尔·塞姆利斯在他最近的研究报告中指出，海外股票之所以表现好，其实主要靠三家公司：台积电、三星和SK海力士，全是芯片股。

But as Michael Semblis pointed out in his recent research note, the reason that that international stocks are outperforming is basically because of three stocks, TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix, all chip stocks.

所以说，真正带动整体上涨的，还是芯片股。

So that's another story of the chips are the ones that are pulling up the rest of it.

要是没有这几家，海外市场的整体表现根本达不到这个水平。

And if those those didn't exist, you would not see that level of outperformance.

所以结论是对的，但理由可能不太对。

So correct, but not necessarily for the right reasons there.

是的。

Yeah.

但在投资里，这些都算数。

But they all count in in investing.

你知道的。

You know?

对就是对，错就是错。

Right is right and wrong is wrong.

你做得不错。

So good for you.

我觉得你这次表现得很不错。

I think I think you accounted yourself pretty well there.

我觉得我表现得还行。

I had to I think I think I did not bad.

来吧，我来聊聊你那几个例子。

Come now I'm gonna go to a couple of yours.

天哪。

And Oh, god.

我简直不敢想接下来要听什么。

I I'm I'm, like, dreading even

听你说。

hearing you.

别担心。

Worry.

别担心。

Don't worry.

你做得不错。

You're good.

你做得不错。

You're good.

你只错了一个。

You only got one wrong.

好的。

Okay.

不错。

Good.

你说过，我们正处于人工智能泡沫中，但今年不会破裂。

You said, we are in an AI bubble, but it won't pop this year.

到目前为止，确实如此。

So far, that's been true.

但我对后半段有点不安。

But I'm feeling a little queasy about the second half.

咱们走着瞧吧。

We will see.

天啊。

God.

你说过美国股市不会跑输非美国股市。

You said US stocks will not underperform non US stocks.

到目前为止，情况恰恰相反。

So far, that has not been true.

但这是种特殊的现象。

But it's that special phenomenon.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

你说过，美联储利率今年年底不会低于3%。

You said Fed the Fed funds rate will not end the year below 3%.

到目前为止，这一点确实没错。

So far, that is definitely true.

你还说过，这可能是你最准的判断：2026年最大的风险将是通胀。

And you also said, and this is probably your biggest win, that the biggest risk in 2026 will be inflation.

对。

Mhmm.

而到目前为止，这一点非常准确，甚至比大多数人预测的还要严重，因为伊朗事件之后，通胀飙升得相当惊人。

And so far, that has been very true and more true than a lot of people would have predicted because it has risen kind of spectacularly after after Iran.

现在的问题是，这种趋势能持续下去吗？

Now there's a question of will this last?

它还会继续吗？

Will it continue?

但到目前为止，这一点非常明确，尤其体现在利率讨论上——这当然是最大的变化。

But so far, that's very true, and it's especially reflected in the interest rate conversation, which, of course, has been the biggest shift.

大家都以为利率会在2026年之前下降。

Everyone thought interest rates were coming down into 2026.

现在大家都觉得利率要么维持现状，要么可能因为通胀而上调。

Now everyone believes they're either gonna stay where they are or they might go up because of inflation.

能源通胀是个特殊情况。

Energy inflation is a special case.

这确实是老百姓要承担的成本。

And It's of course a price people pay.

你没法把它忽略掉。

You can't just put it aside.

它会对经济造成影响。

It affects the economy.

如果能源价格持续上涨，就会挤压实际收入，拖累经济增长。

If energy inflation is high, that eats into real incomes and drags on growth.

但说到利率政策、持续通胀这些事，我们真正担心的是剔除能源后的核心通胀，而这部分不会轻易消失。

But in terms of things like rate policy, sustained inflation, etcetera, etcetera, it's core inflation that we're worried about taking energy out, and that thing will not go away.

对吧？

Right?

这就好比有的月份情况乐观，有的月份比较糟糕。但就服务类通胀而言，尤其是我们目前的水平已经高于目标值，而且趋势也没有朝着正确的方向走。

It's sort of like some you have a hopeful month, you have a bad month, but it just service and inflation in particular, we're above target and we're not moving in the right direction.

最多也就是原地踏步，甚至可能更糟，这得看你具体指的是哪个月份的数据。

We're moving sideways at best, maybe worse than sideways depending on which month you're talking about.

这就引出了我们最近看到的一些数据。

So this gets us to the the some of the recent data we've seen.

很明显，五月份的CPI达到了4.2%。

Obviously, CPI hit 4.2% in May.

美联储偏好的通胀指标PCE，进一步印证了这一观点。

The PCE, which is the Fed's preferred inflation measure, just bolstered the point.

最新数据刚出来，是4.1%。

It just came in at 4.1%.

然后我觉得，真正的大问题在于，比如通胀要是涨上去，或者一直居高不下。

And then I think what's really I mean, a big question has been, say inflation goes up or that it sticks around.

这原本是你的预测，现在看来正在应验。

And that was your prediction, and it appears to be playing out.

这对普通人意味着什么？

What does that mean for people?

为什么这会产生影响？我们都知道这对消费者意味着什么。

Why does that affect I mean, we know what it means for consumers.

我们知道，生活成本变高了，尤其是当物价上涨速度超过工资增长时，而眼下正是这种情况。

We know that it means that your life is more expensive, especially if it outpaces wage growth, which it is right now.

但投资者关心的是，这对股市意味着什么？

But the question that investors are asking is, what does this mean for stocks?

这对股市是坏事吗？

Is this a bad thing for stocks?

我很想听听你的看法，因为这正是你之前的预测之一——通胀是对市场最大的风险之一，不只是对美国人，而是对所有投资者，而我们现在正看到它逐步成真。

And I'd be curious to hear your views on because this was one of your predictions is, you know, one of the biggest risks to the markets, not to just American people, but to investors is inflation, and we are seeing that kind of play out.

那么，你现在怎么看这个问题？

So how do you view it at this point?

要讲的内容很多，我们先从历史说起吧。

Huge amount of different stuff to unpack, but let's just start with the history.

过去二十五年左右的历史是这样的。

The history is that of the last going back twenty five years, whatever it is.

一旦出现通胀，最终就会进入加息周期。

When you have a rate hiking cycle, which if you have inflation, you will eventually get a rate hiking cycle.

美联储不可能一直容忍这种情况下去。

The Fed, you know, probably is not gonna put up with this forever.

这往往伴随着市场的大幅回调。

That has coincided or correlated with ugly market corrections.

如果你看看过去三四次加息周期中的市场回调，确实有这种关联——但我特别小心，不谈因果关系。

If you look at the last three or four corrections in the last three or four rate hiking cycles, they do I'm not saying anything about I'm being very careful not to talk about causation here.

我只是在说相关性。

Just talking about correlation.

这一点很重要。

It's an important point to make.

我们上一次的大回调其实是个比较特殊的情况。

You know, the last big correction we had was was a trickier case, though.

对吧？

Right?

因为那是疫情引发的调整，当时利率本来就在上升，接着疫情就来了，

Because it was the COVID correction, and we'd been the rates had been coming up, and then COVID hit,

而且

and

市场直接崩盘了。

there was a collapse.

所以有个问题：就算没有疫情，光是加息会不会也把市场拖垮？

So there's a question, would that rate hiking have sunk the market anyway, virus or no virus?

这还不好说。

Open question.

但如果你把联邦基金利率和标普500指数的走势放在一起看，就会开始担心这些事了，不管它们到底有没有关联。

But if you just look at a chart of the federal funds rate superimposed on the S and P 500, you start to worry about this stuff, whatever the correlation is.

对吧？

Right?

所以这是个大问题。

So big question.

核心问题是，我们现在通胀还高于美联储2%的目标，但也不是特别离谱——好一点的月份，剔除能源后，用各种统计方法调整一下，通胀大概在2.7%左右；差一点的月份，就跑到3.5%了。

The the the massive question is, here we are bumbling along above target, above the 2% target of the Fed, but not you know, it's like on a good month, you strip out energy, and you're like you do trim mean or whatever statistical package you want, and you get kind of inflation is like 2.7, and in a bad month, it's like 3.5.

我们就这样在明显高于目标的水平上横盘震荡，平均来看，大概高出一个百分点。

And we're kind of going along sideways in this clearly above target by call it roughly on average a percentage point.

对吧？

Right?

市场大概也能接受这种状态。

And, you know, the markets can probably live like that.

你懂我的意思吧？

You you know what I mean?

两和三之间的差别。

The difference between two and three.

大家总在讨论，美联储说目标是2%，他们说的2，是不是指目标区间的下限？

You know, there's these discussions like when the Fed says two is the target, do they mean two is the first number of the target?

你懂的吧？

You know?

我的意思是？

What I mean?

还是说他们指的是2.0这个精确数值？

Or do they mean two with two point zero?

不管怎样，如果通胀再次上升，我觉得那就糟了。

Anyway, the question is if it goes up again, I think that's a disaster.

我觉得市场可以承受核心通胀比目标高一个百分点的情况。

I think markets can live with in core inflation that's a percentage point above target.

它已经这样撑了很久了。

It has been living with it.

这当然不是理想状态，但还能接受。

It's not ideal or whatever.

但如果通胀从这儿开始失控，结合我们对历史关系的了解，以及它带来的不稳定性，我真的想不出市场怎么还能维持在当前高位，如果通胀不仅高于目标，还在继续攀升的话。

But if it gets loose from there, I just can't see how given what we know about the historical relationship, given the instability that brings, I just can't see how markets can stay at this high level if inflation is above target and rising again.

我也不清楚。

I don't know.

我要真能预测通胀，就不会坐这儿跟你聊了。

If I could predict inflation, wouldn't be sitting here talking to you.

这肯定是真的。

That's for sure.

但问题是，这情况确实挺糟的。

But but, like, that's but, like so does it's it's bad.

如果就维持在现在这个糟糕程度，那还能接受。

If it stays the level of bad, is now okay.

我们还能应付得了。

We can live with that.

但如果再恶化到另一个程度，我就真担心了。

If it gets to another level of bad, I'm scared.

我觉得最终确实会这样。

And I think this ultimately does.

伊朗这时候又成了关键，因为没错，我们再怎么想摆脱能源依赖，但霍尔木兹海峡至少表面上还是开着的。

This is where Iran comes back into the mix because, yes, we can strip out energy as much as we'd like, but supposedly the Strait is open.

至于这海峡能开多久，我觉得还是个未知数——毕竟我们面对的这位总统，行事不按常理，动不动就夸大其词，甚至快到撒谎的地步，尤其是他总说那些协议已经谈成了，其实根本没影儿。

The question of how long it will remain open, I think, is an open question because I think we're dealing with president who is irrational and has a tendency to exaggerate to the point of basically nearly lying, especially when it comes to how done his deals actually are.

事实上，这根本算不上什么协议。

We have the fact that this isn't really a deal.

这顶多是个暂停，结果他们一天之内就毁约了。

It's a pause that they violated within, like, a day.

所以，这所谓的‘协议’到底有多牢靠呢？

And so how how, you know, strong is this?

还有以色列，这也是个大问号，他们根本没参与这个协议。

And then there's also Israel, which is another giant question mark, was not involved in this deal.

如果以色列继续袭击黎巴嫩，那是不是意味着美国违背了协议？

And if Israel strikes, Lebanon or continues to strike Lebanon, then does that mean that America violated the deal?

那伊朗会不会再次发火，说：不行？

Does that mean that Iran will then get angry again and say, no.

我们会运用自己在过去一年里意识到的筹码，那就是要么关闭海峡，要么对所有通过的船只收费——这他们完全做得到，而且还会推高油价。

We're gonna use our leverage, which we just realized in the past year, which is that we can either close the strait or just charge everyone who comes through it, which they could easily do, which would also increase oil prices.

所有这些问题其实都回到你的核心观点：这可能会加剧通胀。

And all of those questions go back to your big point, which is that could increase inflation.

如果真这样，通胀就可能持续高于4%。

And if it does, it could mean that inflation remains above 4%.

一旦发生，利率就可能继续上调，而正如你所说，这通常和熊市是相伴而生的。

And if that happens, interest rate hikes, which as you say, are kind of go hand in hand with bear market.

我觉得市场一直以来那么有信心，觉得这场贸易冲突最终会有个了结，是因为大家都明白一点：

I think the reason the market was so confident all along that there would be some kind of resolution in this trade was recognition that look.

双方其实都需要把热战暂时压成冷战。

The the both sides needed the hot war to turn into a cold war for a while.

所以我认为，市场大概是对的，核心假设就是这种不稳定的和平会持续一阵子。

And so I, you know, I think the market is probably right that the central hypothesis is that an uneasy peace continues for a while.

如果我是伊朗，我可能会想，我也不确定。

I might if I was Iran, I might want the I I don't know.

我对伊朗能懂多少呢？

I what do I know about Iran?

但话说回来，如果我是伊朗，我可能希望这种不稳定的和平能持续到下一任总统上台。

But, you know, I might want the uneasy piece to last until there's a different president maybe.

顺便说一句，总统本人也可能希望这种不稳定的和平能撑到下一任总统上台。

And the president might want the uneasy piece to last until there's another president, by the way.

所以，我同意你的看法。

So, like, I agree with you.

这看起来像是一场假和平。

It seems like a fake piece.

但对市场来说，哪怕只是假和平，也已经够用了。

But for the market's purposes, fake piece might be enough.

对吧？

Right?

你明白我的意思吗？

Do you know what I mean?

我们正在补充石油库存，诸如此类，但我同意你的看法。

We're refilling oil inventories, whatever, but I agree with you.

这很不稳定，是个未知数。

It's unstable, and it's a question mark.

我觉得你的观点很有普遍性，比如你一说，如果不考虑这次冲击，那之前不是还有新冠冲击吗？

And I would I would say your point is generalizable that, you know, if you start saying, well, if you don't count on count this shock, oh, we had the COVID shock.

还有石油冲击。

We have the oil shock.

还有人工智能冲击。

We have the AI shock.

还有这个冲击。

We have this shock.

看来我们生活在一个充满各种冲击的时代。

Well, we seem to live in an age of shocks.

这些冲击，说到底，大多是供应方面的，有时是需求方面的，而且一个接一个，从来没停过。

And they they, you know, they seem to be, you know, supply shocks of one sort or another, sometimes demand shocks, and they keep happening.

当然，如果你从一开始就排除所有意外事件对经济的影响，不把它们算进通胀数据里，那很可能会得出通胀很低的结论。

And, of course, if you specify at the outset that you're not counting every unexpected thing that happens into the economy into your inflation calculation, you're probably gonna end up with a low a view that inflation is pretty low.

但冲击总是会来。

But shocks happen.

对吧？

Right?

所以，我觉得，通胀之后跟着加息，这才是最大的风险。

So, anyway, I, you know, I think, you know, inflation followed by higher interest rates is the big risk.

但我不是在预测它会发生，只是这最容易解释事情为什么会失控。

But I'm I'm not predicting it, but it it's the easiest way to see things coming off the rails.

说到这点，你看现在布伦特原油的价格，已经跌到每桶74美元左右了。

And to your point, I mean, just looking at the price of Brent crude right now, it's down to around $74 a barrel.

比战争前高一点，但高得不多。

It's higher than it was before the war, but barely higher.

基本就跟以前差不多。

It's basically where it was.

但与此同时，我们正处在一个不确定性明显更高的时代，正如你所说。

And yet, we are living in a time where, to your point, the uncertainty around that straight is inarguably higher.

确实，现在的困惑和不确定性都增加了，这可能会引发问题。

There is certainly higher confusion, higher uncertainty, which could lead to a problem.

但我们依赖的是交易员的乐观情绪，来维持价格低位。

But what we're counting on is the optimism of traders to keep that price low.

他们就是这么想的，而这种心态实际上有助于防止通胀进一步恶化。

And that's how they feel, and it actually works in preventing inflation from getting worse.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得我们在危机期间学到了一些关于全球能源系统弹性的经验，这些经验总体上是令人鼓舞的。

I think we did learn some things during the crisis about the flexibility of the world energy system, and those things are mostly encouraging.

你知道的。

You know?

如果霍尔木兹海峡再关闭几个月，我们的石油库存真的见底了，情况可能会完全不同，但好在我们还能消耗库存。

I mean, it would have looked a lot different if the Strait had stayed closed for another couple of months and we really hit the end of oil inventories, But we were able to burn inventories.

供应链都调整了方向。

Supply chains moved around.

需求确实有所下降。

There was some demand destruction.

所以说，全球能源经济在压力之下表现得相当不错。

So, you know, you have to say that the world energy economy performed pretty well under strain.

因此，我觉得在我们历史上这段相当黯淡的时期里，这算是个好消息。

And, so I I think that's a little good news coming out of a rather dreary period in our history.

接下来我们来聊聊对下半年可能情况的判断，这确实密切相关。

I'm going to, move us on to our our thoughts on what might happen in the second half, and it's certainly related.

我这里列出了2026年下半年最值得关注的几个问题。

I have a a a list here of the biggest question marks for h two twenty twenty six.

我列表上的第一个，就是我们刚才讨论的这个。

And the first one on my list is what we're talking about.

那就是伊朗问题——具体来说，是伊朗冲突何时、以何种方式解决，或者根本解决不了。

It's Iran, specifically when and how the Iran conflict will be resolved or if it won't.

我们看Kalshi上的概率，真正达成协议的可能性非常低。

On when we look at the probabilities on Kalshi, the chances of a, quote, real deal are very low.

九月前发生的概率是23%，2027年前发生的概率是46%。

It's 23% happening before September, 46% happening before 2027.

所以人们在赌的，是最终会不会真的达成协议，签字停战？

So that that that that's people betting on, will we come to an actual resolution where we sign and the war is over?

但这可能和航道会不会继续保持开放是两个不同的问题。

But that might be a different question from will the straight remain open?

我的预测是，说实话，我可不敢拿房子打赌，但咱们大概率就是继续装下去。

I mean, my prediction on this is, you know, I wouldn't bet my house on it, but we're gonna keep faking it.

对吧？

Right?

大家磕磕绊绊地往前凑合。

We fumble through.

把球一脚踢进高草丛里，先拖着再说。

We kick the ball in the high grass.

我们摸着石头过河。

We grope our way along.

问题从没真正解决，但也没再升级。

It's never resolved, but it it doesn't heat up again.

这大概就是我的判断。

That would be my guess.

但这也只是猜测而已。

But it's no better than a guess.

我都不愿把这称作什么预测。

I don't wanna even call that a prediction.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得你说得对。

I think I think that's right.

我还想问，通胀会恶化吗？

I also have here, will inflation get worse?

这当然也是相关的。

And this is, of course, related.

我拒绝做预测。

I refuse to predict.

你一旦做出预测，我就……

You make a prediction, and I'm gonna

看着吧。

watch.

我不打算去预测。

I'm not I'm not I'm not gonna predict.

不过，我其实还是会预测一下。

Well, I kind of will predict.

我年初时的预测是，通胀率会达到4.5%，或者说是年初的时候。

My prediction at the beginning of the year was that inflation would hit four and a half percent or not beginning of the year.

那时候我们刚刚开始跟伊朗的事情打交道。

It was it was just as we were getting started with Iran.

我觉得这事儿会持续更久。

My view is that this was gonna last a lot longer.

我原本预计年底通胀会达到百分之四点五。

I thought it would hit four and a half percent by the year end.

现在是百分之四点二。

We're at 4.2.

我仍然坚持我之前的判断。

I think I hold to that prediction.

不过呢，我刚才听了马克·赞迪的发言，他来过我们节目。

But I I I mean, you know, I I was listening to Mark Zandy who we have on the show.

你好像也跟他一起上过节目。

I think you've appeared on the show with with him.

对。

Mhmm.

他觉得通胀已经接近顶峰了，不太可能再恶化了。

And he he believes that we're close to a top in with inflation, that it probably won't get worse.

我个人不这么看，但这确实是关键问题。

I don't buy that personally, but that is kind of the big question.

听起来你也觉得通胀可能会再往上走一点。

It sounds like you believe that it might get a little bit worse as well.

我跟你说一件事。

I'll tell you one thing.

如果你打算买 MacBook，那通胀可不止 4%。

If you're planning on buying a MacBook, you're gonna get more than 4% inflation.

对啊。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

今天苹果刚发布了消息，我要说一个想法——这其实是直接借来的。

I mean, we got that news from Apple today, and I'm gonna now say something that is an idea that I'm outright stealing.

让我把功劳归于那个被我借鉴的人。今天早上我和他喝了杯咖啡，他叫Rob Cox，以前是路透社的记者。

And let my let me credit the person I stole it from was a guy I had a cup of coffee this morning, former Reuters journalist called Rob Cox.

他指出，问题不在于苹果出来解释说，你知道的，内存芯片太贵了。

And he pointed out that it's not you know, Apple comes out and says, you know, the memory chips are very expensive.

所以不得不提高手机、笔记本电脑和平板电脑等产品的价格。

We have to increase the prices on the phones and the laptops and the tablet and so forth.

好吧。

Fine.

苹果产品的价格在我们经济中是个非常关键的指标。

The price of Apple goods are a very important price in our economy.

对吧？

Right?

这个价格大家在心里都特别有数，毕竟我们很多人都在用iPhone。

That is a very salient price in people's minds is, you know, we all a lot of us use iPhones.

还有很多人用iPad。

A lot of us have iPads.

很多人用的都是麦金塔电脑。

A lot of us are Mac people.

这个价格变动明明白白摆在那儿，人人都看得到，也知道它在涨。

And that is there that, like, that's a price that everybody can see and knows going up.

所以我忍不住想，这会不会是一种信号？

So I wonder if that is like a signaling one.

苹果这么做，可不只是在改电脑价格，因为苹果就是苹果。

It's not just computers when Apple does it because Apple's Apple.

你明白我刚才说的意思吧？

You know what I was saying?

不过我就是提一下这个想法，因为罗布的见解确实不错，我想再重复一遍。

Anyway, I'm just throwing that idea out there because I thought it was a a good idea from Rob, and I I wanted to repeat

我觉得这一点很重要，尤其是在美国公众对人工智能的看法这个背景下——他们普遍对AI很反感。

I think it's important and also important in the context of how the American public views AI, specifically how much they dislike it.

我们知道，蒂姆·库克也明确说过，我们提高电脑、手机和Mac mini价格的原因，是内存芯片的价格涨得太离谱了，我这辈子都没见过这么高的涨幅。

Because what we know and what Tim Cook has said outright is the reason that we're increasing the price of our computers and our phones and our chips or or, excuse me, our Mac minis is because the price of memory chips has exploded to a degree that I've never seen before.

发生这种情况的原因是，大家都在建数据中心。

And the reason that's happened is because everyone's trying to build a data center.

这又是另一个关联点。

And so that is another link.

每一句话都是真的。

Every word

这话一点不假。

of that is true, by the way.

全都是真的。

All of it's true.

如果你本来就讨厌AI，那这又是一个更讨厌它的理由——你要是想换新iPhone，价格涨了，说到底就是AI造成的。

And if you're if you don't like AI, this is another reason to not like AI even more because the reason your iPhone, if you wanted to upgrade, has gotten more expensive is literally because of AI.

就是因为数据中心的需求暴涨。

It's because of data centers.

那些要抢你饭碗、推高电费的机器，也在让你的iPhone变得更贵。

So the machines that are coming to get you fired and make electricity more expensive are also making your iPhone more expensive.

我现在真不明白，怎么还会有人不喜欢这项技术。

Now I wonder why people wouldn't like that technology.

真是让人费解。

What a mystery.

这些人真是信息严重滞后。

What poor misinformed people.

说得一点都没错。

That's exactly right.

就是那个让人失业、推高所有东西价格的机器。

The you're fired machine that makes everything expensive.

说得一点都没错。

That's exactly right.

我不确定这些是不是真的，但大家确实就是这么想的。

I don't know if any of that's true, but that's the perception very clearly.

你懂的。

You know?

我们知道，它确实让东西变得更贵了。

We know that it's true in terms of making things more expensive.

这一点已经得到证实了。

That much has been proved.

至于裁员那回事，我们再看看吧。

We'll see about the you're fired thing.

没错。

Exactly.

顺便说一句，我们一会儿再聊AI，但这个因素很可能成为AI发展的巨大障碍。

So and that, by the way and we can get to AI in a moment, but that could be a huge obstacle in AI's way.

事实上，它现在就已经是了。

In fact, it seems it already is.

不过我还是先按我的问题清单继续往下说。

But I'm just gonna keep moving through my list of question marks.

我觉得这个问题最关键，而且没人能达成共识——利率将来会怎样。

I think that this is the biggest question mark, and no one is is able to agree on this, is what will happen to interest rates.

我们看到各家银行给出了不同的预测。

We we've seen different predictions made by different banks.

摩根大通全球研究部门认为，美联储今年余下时间都会维持利率不变。

JPMorgan Global Research said that they believe that the Fed will hold rates for the rest of the year.

高盛也表示，他们不预期会有任何降息。

Goldman Sachs also said they're not expecting any cuts.

他们觉得利率可能会保持稳定，也不会上涨。

They think that they will hold or or that they they don't think it'll rise either.

美国银行则预计今年会有三次加息。

Bank of America said they expect three interest rate increases

今年。

this year.

所以各家预测差异挺大的。

So there's dispersion in the predictions.

正因如此，我们的工作才这么有意思。

That's what makes our job fun.

对吧？

Right?

并不是每个人都看法一致，看到的情况也不一样。

Not not everybody is on the same is seeing the same stuff here.

部分原因是因为美联储新换了个负责人，我们其实还不太了解他这个人。

And part of that is simply because got a new guy in charge of the Fed, and we don't know we don't really know who he is.

接下来几个月，我们就会慢慢看清了。

And we're gonna find out over the next few months.

我很想听听你对这个问题的看法。

I'd be interested to hear your views on this.

我觉得这将是影响利率走向的关键因素，就像我们之前说的，你也提到过，这基本上会决定今年下半年股市的走势。

Like, I think that is a big piece of what's gonna happen to interest rates, which as we said, as you pointed out, that basically could determine what happens to the stock market in the second half of the year.

如果历史能作参考的话，确实会这样。

If history is any guide, it will be.

我的意思是，新任负责人凯文·沃什，这位新领导——

I mean, I think Kevin Warsh, who's the new head of the the okay.

我这么形容他，并不是想显得太刻薄，但我管他叫‘追到车就停下的狗’。

How I describe him, and I don't mean this to be as critical as it sounds, but I call him the dog who caught the car.

我的意思是，过去十五年他几乎一直在批评美联储。

And what I mean by that is he's literally spent most of the last fifteen years criticizing the Federal Reserve.

他在金融危机期间就在美联储任职。

He was on the Federal Reserve back in the financial crisis.

后来他和美联储分道扬镳，部分原因是因为对资产负债表政策有分歧，大概是2011年左右的事。

He parted ways with the Federal Reserve partly because of disagreements about balance sheet policy or whatever back in, like, 02/1011, or something like that.

他离开了美联储。

He left the Fed.

从那以后，他花了不少时间发表演讲，批评美联储把一切都搞砸了。

And since then, he's been suing a fair percentage of his time giving speeches about how the Fed is screwing everything up.

现在大家心里都在想，多谢你了，大聪明。

And now it's like, oh, thanks a lot, wise guy.

钥匙给你。

Here's the keys.

你明白我的意思吧？

You know what I mean?

作为记者，我特别能理解那些站在外面批评圈内人的人。

So as a journalist, I'm very sympathetic to people who sit outside of the game criticizing the players.

这本来就是我的本职工作。

That is basically my job.

所以我并不想在外头随便批评这样的人。

So I don't wanna criticize such people out of court.

但这次不一样，他从外面自以为知道该怎么做的立场，变成了真正掌权、要面对所有压力的内部人。

But this is a case where he's going from thinking he knows the right way to do it from the outside to being on the inside and being under all the pressures that go with actually running the thing.

第二点，当然有人会担心他会不会被特朗普牵着鼻子走。

Point number two is, of course, there is a question about whether he will be bullied by Trump.

我一直都说，我之前在节目里也提过。

As I've been saying all along, I think I've said it on the show here before.

我觉得这根本不是问题。

I don't think that's an issue.

有两个原因。

Two reasons.

第一，唐纳德·特朗普试图恐吓杰罗姆·鲍威尔，结果完全没用。

One, Donald Trump tried to bully Jerome Powell, and it really, really didn't work.

你懂我的意思吧？

You know what I mean?

彻底失败了。

It was a complete failure.

对吧？

Right?

从他的角度看，那些恐吓反而让事情变得更糟。

His bullying efforts probably made things worse from his point of view.

对吧？

Right?

所以这一招没奏效。

So that didn't work.

第二，美联储主席的位置不会因为总统喜不喜欢谁就改变。

And two, the chairman of the Federal Reserve is not gonna be it doesn't matter whether the president likes them or not.

真正重要的是，你在历史上会留下怎样的评价？

What matters to someone who has that job is who am I in the eyes of history?

如果你任内任由通胀失控，你的子孙后代都会听到别人拿你当笑话讲，说你是个糟糕的美联储主席。

And if you are the chair of the Federal Reserve under whom inflation got out of control, you your grandchildren will be hearing jokes about what a crap Fed chair you are.

你的名字会被记住。

You will be remembered.

亚瑟·伯恩斯就是上世纪七十年代让通胀彻底失控的那位美联储主席。

This is Arthur Burns is the Fed chair who famously let inflation get out of control in the seventies.

你可不想成为那样的人。

You don't wanna be that guy.

所以我觉得，他一定会紧盯通胀这个目标。

So I think he's gonna have his eye on the ball in terms of inflation.

这是否意味着他处理得完美无缺，或者类似的情况？

Does that mean he managed it perfectly or anything like that?

我不确定。

I don't know.

但我认为总统没法吓唬他去做什么。

But I don't think the president is gonna intimidate this guy into doing anything.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

顺便说一下，斯科特明天6月30日下午3点会直播年中回顾。

And by the way, Scott is going live with his midyear check-in tomorrow, June 30 at 3PM.

想看直播的话，去Substack订阅Prof G Plus吧。

Become a Prof G plus subscriber on Substack to tune in.

如果想订阅，请访问profgmedia.com/subscribe。

If you wanna do that, visit profgmedia.com/subscribe.

我们都得喝水，保持水分充足是让自己状态最好的简单方法之一。

We all have to drink water and staying hydrated is one of the simplest ways to feel your best.

但说实话，你和水的关系到底怎么样？

But come on, how is your relationship with water really?

你喝够了吗？

Are you getting enough from it?

喝水让你觉得满足，还是变成了一种负担？

Is it satisfying you, or is drinking it becoming a chore?

有个小建议，能让你的喝水体验不一样。

Here's a tip to spice things up.

喝Hint水。

Hint water.

Hint水有西瓜、佐治亚桃子，甚至柠檬皮冻等多种美味风味，会让你真心想喝水。

With delectable flavors like watermelon, Georgia peach, even lemon zest freeze, hint is water that will make you desire water.

不含糖，不加甜味剂，零卡路里。

No sugar, no sweeteners, no calories.

这说明了，选对了补水搭档，一切都会不一样。

It just goes to show, sometimes the right hydration partner changes everything.

试试Hint水。

Try hint.

可在 drinkhint.com 和全国各大门店购买。

Available at drinkhint.com and in stores nationwide.

本节目由 BCX 赞助，这是私营科技公司的公开股票代码。

Support for the show comes from BCX, the public ticker for private tech.

几代以来，美国企业凭借创新与毅力推动了世界前进。

For generations, American companies have moved the world forward through their ingenuity and determination.

而几代普通美国人，也通过或许是人类最伟大的发明之一——美国股市，参与了这一进程。

And for generations, everyday Americans could be a part of that journey through perhaps the greatest innovation of all, The US stock market.

不管你是在底特律的工厂工人，还是在奥马哈的农民，人人都能拥有美国伟大企业的股份。

It didn't matter whether you were a factory worker in Detroit or a farmer in Omaha, anyone can own a piece of the great American companies.

但如今，这种情况已经变了。

But now that's changed.

现在，最具创新力的公司选择长期保持私有，不再上市。

Today, our most innovative companies are staying private rather than going public.

结果就是，普通美国人被挡在了投资大门外，越落越远，而少数人却独享所有红利——直到现在。

The result is that everyday Americans are excluded from investing and getting left further behind while a select few reap all the benefits until now.

推出VCX，专为私人科技公司打造的公开交易股票，现在你买股票的任何地方都能买到。

Introducing VCX, the public ticker for private tech, now available wherever you buy stocks.

VCX由Fundrise提供，让每个人都有机会投资下一代创新企业，包括引领人工智能、太空探索、国防科技等领域的前沿公司。

VCX by Fundrise gives everyone the opportunity to invest in the next generation of innovation, including the companies leading the AI revolution, space exploration, defense tech, and more.

了解更多，请访问getvcx.com。

Visit getvcx.com for more info.

就是getvcx.com。

That's getvcx.com.

投资前请仔细考虑相关材料，包括目标、风险、费用和开支。

Carefully consider the material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses.

更多详情请参阅getvcx.com上的基金招募说明书。

This and other information can be found in the fund's prospectus at getvcx.com.

本内容为付费赞助。

This is a paid sponsorship.

想象一下。

Picture it.

夏天，你和朋友们在你最爱的露天酒吧里。

Summer, you and your girls at your favorite patio bar.

阳光正好，微风舒适，你穿着那条新买的连衣裙，美得让人移不开眼。

The sun's out, the breeze is perfect, and you're looking stunning in that new sundress.

那咱们喝点什么？

And what are we drinking?

来一杯金巴利气泡酒。

A Campari Spritz.

就三种东西：金巴利、普罗塞克起泡酒，还有苏打水。

It's just Campari, Prosecco, and soda water.

味道浓烈、经典、微苦，就像你一样。

Bold, iconic, and perfectly bitter, just like you.

更多官方鸡尾酒配方，请访问 campari.com。

Check out official cocktail recipes at campari.com.

金巴利气泡酒。

Campari Spritz.

保持尖锐。

Stay bitter.

金巴利利口酒，酒精含量24%，48度。

Campari liqueur, 24% alcohol by volume, 48 proof.

2026年，金巴利美国公司，纽约，纽约。

2026, Campari America, New York, New York.

请适量饮用。

Please enjoy responsibly.

我们继续回到Prof G Markets的节目。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

如果你是在YouTube上看的，罗伯特刚刚被赶出了他在‘ Feet’的办公室。

So if you're watching on YouTube, Robert was just kicked out of his office at the Feet.

我想他们那边对你的尊重还不够，所以他才会有这么不一样的背景。

I guess I guess they don't respect you enough over there, so that's why he's got a bit of different background.

但我刚才问你，罗布，关于凯文·沃尔什对‘反迷恋’的态度，还有他明确表示不希望美联储向公众过多解释他们的实际操作，这一点一直争议很大。

But I was asking you, Rob, about Kevin Walsh's anti fetishness and also the fact that he he has signaled that he does not want the Federal Reserve to be communicating as much to the public about what they're actually doing, which has been a a large point of controversy.

我个人真搞不懂，这些事对利率这个关键决策到底有什么影响。

I personally can't figure out why any of that actually matters on the big decision, which is basically interest rates.

可能跟利率和资产负债表都有关系。

Possibly interest rates in the balance sheet.

把这两点合起来看吧。

Call it those two together.

对。

Yeah.

你对他那种反对美联储的立场怎么看？

What what are your views on on his, I guess, anti Fed philosophy?

他那种沟通方式确实有点奇怪，我先说说反对他的理由。

The communications thing is is a bit weird, and let me give you first the case against his approach.

他的观点是，我们不该给市场预测未来会怎么做。

His thing is we don't wanna give the markets guidance on what we're going to do.

我们只该说明已经做了什么，但不该谈论未来。

We want to say what we have done, but we don't want to talk about the future.

他们打算从声明中去掉所谓的前瞻性指引，也就是每次利率决议后发布的新闻稿里那种略带暗示性的措辞，用来让人推测下一次他们会往哪个方向走。

We're going to take for what they call forward guidance out of the statement, which is the kind of slightly coded language in the press release that comes with every interest rate decision that sort of gives you a way to predict which way they're leaning the next time.

他不想解释美联储的应对机制，就是不想让人产生这样的想法：如果就业报告这样，美联储就会那样行动。

He doesn't wanna explain what they call the Fed's reaction function, which is a he doesn't want people to have the thought, if the employment report does this, the Fed will do that.

你明白我的意思吧？

You know what I mean?

他希望你对我们的做法了解得更少。

They don't he wants you to know less about what we're doing.

他在第一次新闻发布会上说过这么一句话，完全站不住脚，也不真实——他说，我们想通过市场本身来了解情况，但如果市场总是根据他们对我们的预期来过滤信息，我们就做不到这一点。

And he said this thing in his first press conference about this, which was complete nonsense and not true, which is he said, we want the market we wanna know what's going on by looking at the market, and we can't do that if the market is filtering all the incoming information through their idea of what we're gonna do.

他的想法是，美联储从经济中收到的信号，会因为提供了前瞻性指引而被扭曲。

So it's this idea that, like, the signals the Fed is getting about the economy will be distorted by the fact that we give forward guidance.

在我看来，这完全说不通，因为不管美联储怎么做，市场对经济的反应，永远都会受到他们对美联储是谁、会怎么做的判断影响。

To me, this makes no sense whatsoever because you can be damn sure the markets are no matter what the Fed does, how the the markets respond to the economy is gonna be conditioned by who they think the Fed is and what they think the Fed's gonna do.

不管怎样，信号从来都是模糊的。

It's always gonna be a muddled signal.

所以我觉得，他这只是编了个荒唐的故事来给自己找借口。

So I think that is just a silly story that he's telling to justify himself.

这才是我真正认为正在发生的事。

This is what I think is really going on.

他觉得市场把美联储当成了最后的靠山，而他想减少这种依赖。

He is a person who thinks the market counts on the Fed as a backstop, and he wants less of that to be happening.

他希望市场更动荡、更恐慌，因为他觉得市场太依赖美联储的兜底政策了。

He wants the market to be more volatile and more scared because he thinks the market is too dependent on the Fed put and Fed put like stuff.

一旦出问题，杠杆加得太猛，不管怎样，美联储总会来救我们。

If we get in trouble, if we leverage ourself too far, if we whatever, the Fed will always bail us out.

他想把这种麻醉剂从系统里拿掉，我觉得他的沟通策略就是其中一部分。

And he wants to take that anesthetic out of the system, and I think the communications policy is part of that.

你们自己去琢磨吧。

Like, you guys figure it out for yourselves.

如果你们觉得这很吓人，觉得没有我们告诉你们该做什么就心里没底——那正好。

And if you find that scary, if you find it scary to operate without us telling you what we're gonna do, good.

我希望你们更害怕一点。

I want you more scared.

我就喜欢这样。

That's how I like it.

你明白吧？

You know?

这就是我对这件事的理解。

That that would be my interpretation of that.

我们等着看结果会怎样。

And we will see how that goes.

这就像那句老话：在战壕里没有无神论者。

So, there is a kind of there are no atheists in foxholes aspect to all this.

说想让市场更波动，听起来挺容易，可真到局势失控的时候，你再看看你是不是还这么想。

Like, it's all very well and good to say you want more volatility in the markets until the shit really starts to fly, and then we'll see how you feel about volatility.

换句话说，一旦危机爆发、机构接连垮台、纷纷向美联储求救时，美联储又能怎么办？

In other words, when there's a crisis and institutions are falling over and they're begging for lines of credit from the Fed, what's the Fed gonna do?

当你开始缩减资产负债表时——这正是他非常想做的事，他特别希望进一步缩减资产负债表。

When you start shrinking the balance sheet, which is something that he wants to do you know, he's very keen on shrinking the I should say more, shrinking the balance sheet more.

然后货币市场就出问题了。

And there's a crisis in the money markets.

到那时候，你还硬得起来吗？

How much of a tough guy are you gonna be then?

你懂我的意思吧？

You know what I mean?

真正能看出一位美联储主席、一个美联储委员会是什么样的人，只有在他们面对困境的时候——那时你才能看清他们愿意做什么、不愿意做什么。

So we you don't really find out what kind of Fed chair you have and what kind of Fed board you have until they're in a difficult situation, and then you take the measure of of what they're prepared to do and not do.

这就让华尔街在遭遇某种冲击、危机或极端熊市时更加紧张。

Which is all makes it scarier for Wall Street in the scenario where there is some sort of shock or crisis or extreme bear market.

以前每次市场崩盘，都有所谓的‘格林斯潘对策’——格林斯潘最近刚去世，他一贯的做法就是让美联储出手托住资产价格，不让它们下跌，这成了惯例。

Because what we had in previous crashes was what was, of course, the Greenspan put, Alan Greenspan, who recently died, who, this was kind of his doing is this idea that the Federal Reserve can come in and prop up asset prices such that that prices don't go down, and it became a theme.

伯南克上台后也延续了这一套。

We saw it from Ben Bernanke.

我们在杰罗姆·鲍威尔身上也看到了这一点。

We saw it from Jerome Powell.

就像你刚才说的，如果这个人一上来就说，我们不再这么干了。

And to your point, if you've got this guy coming in saying, we're not doing that anymore.

所以，如果你们想继续搞AI泡沫，最后崩盘了，我可不会来救你们。

So if you guys wanna go have your AI bubble and things crash, I'm not saving you.

他虽然没把话说得这么直白，但我认为这才是他真正的潜台词。

Now he's not saying this explicitly, but I think this is the subtext.

这是我对他言外之意的理解。

That's my interpretation of the subtext of what he's saying.

新官上任。

New sheriff in town.

我们希望让市场回归市场本身。

We wanna let markets be markets.

对。

Yes.

这是一个很有意思的看法，也引出了我清单上的下一个大问号：如果我们相信存在泡沫，那它会破裂吗？

Which is a really interesting interpretation, which brings us to the next big question mark on my list here, which is, will the bubble burst if we believe that there is a bubble?

看起来去年秋天确实有过这样的讨论，当时大家对这个问题有很多疑问。

And it does seem this was a conversation that was being had, in the fall of last year, and there were a lot of question marks around this.

我们当时的看法是，泡沫确实在膨胀，但还没到要破裂的地步，也不像互联网泡沫那样，因为那时候没出现这么高的价格。

Our view was that a bubble was growing, but it wasn't about to burst or and it wasn't quite like what we saw in the .com era because you didn't see the the these prices.

但我现在有了新的看法：实际上，现在的价格已经和互联网泡沫时期差不多了，我们可以看看席勒市盈率，也就是标普500的周期性调整市盈率。

But I have a new view, which is that actually prices are like what we saw in the .com bubble, and that is we can look at the Shiller PE ratio, which is the the cyclically adjusted price earnings of the S and P.

目前它达到了41，而互联网泡沫顶峰时是44。

It's currently at 41, And during the height of the .com bubble, it was 44.

所以它已经进入了那个区间，而历史平均水平只有17.4。

So it's it's in it's in that territory, and the historical average is 17.4.

当然，过去几十年里这个数值一直偏高，因为股票整体变得越来越贵。

Granted, it's it's been a lot higher in the last several decades because stocks have just gotten more expensive.

但事实是，现在的股市已经是历史上第二贵的了。

But the reality is this is the second most expensive stock market of all time is now.

唯一一次比现在更贵的时候，就是1999年到2000年崩盘前。

The only time it was more expensive was right before it crashed from '99 into 2000.

所以这确实是个值得认真对待的问题。

So this is now a real question to contend with.

你怎么看？

What do you think?

我以前在节目里说过很多次了，每次有机会我都忍不住要提，因为我总拿这个来调侃自己——我个人投资和储蓄里亏得最多的一件事，就是总想躲开泡沫。

As I'm sure I've said on the show before because I repeat it whenever I get a chance just to humiliate myself, The the thing I have done that has cost me the most money, you know, with my personal investments and my savings is try to get out of the way of bubbles.

对吧？

Right?

想提前预测泡沫，往往会变成一项特别烧钱的爱好，因为你错失了太多上涨的机会。

Trying to anticipate a bubble can turn into an extremely expensive hobby because you miss out on a lot of gains.

只要价格还在持续上涨，我绝不会说，埃德，你疯了。

I would never if the price momentum was still headed up and to the right, I would say, Ed, you're crazy.

今年根本没必要去预测什么泡沫。

There are no point predicting a bubble this year.

这事短期内不会发生。

It's not happening soon.

让我有点不安的是，过去六周左右市场一直横盘震荡，每次想反弹都冲不上去。

What makes me slightly nervous is the determined sideways movement of markets over the last six weeks or so, that the market tries to rally, and it kind of can't.

这就意味着我们现在处于趋势之间的空档期。

And, that now that means we're between trends.

既不是上涨趋势，也不是下跌趋势。

We're not in an uptrend, and we're not in a downtrend.

我来打个比方，这个比喻和常见的市场说法还挺贴切的。

And let me give you a metaphor for this that actually has a nice resonance with a standard market metaphor.

我年轻的时候特别傻，跑去潘普洛纳看奔牛节，这简直是年轻美国人的经典傻事。

When I was a young and very stupid man, I went to the to the running of the bulls in Pamplona, which is a kind of classic thing for a dumb young American to do.

这太傻了。

That is stupid.

我就是喜欢，我就是爱。

I love it, but I love it.

是的

Yeah.

一大早，你才睡了一个小时，就听说那些公牛马上要冲进这条窄路，你跟着它们跑，心里开始打退堂鼓。

It's first thing in the morning, and you're like, you know, had an hour of sleep, and you're they're about to release these bulls into this narrow road, and you run along with them, and you're starting to have second thoughts.

我记得当时问了陪我的那个西班牙人该怎么办。

And I remember asking the the Spaniard I was with for advice.

他说，别担心。

And he said, don't worry.

只要公牛是顺着路往前冲，这就很安全。

This is all very safe as long as the bull is just running down the road.

公牛要是朝一个方向跑，你只要贴着它跑，就没事儿。

A bull that's going one direction, you can just run along next to it, you're fine.

要是哪头公牛倒了，赶紧躲开，因为它站起来后往哪边跑，谁也说不准。

If one of those things falls over, get out of the way as fast as you can because you don't know what direction it's gonna go when it gets up.

对吧

Right?

你懂的。

You know?

只要公牛朝着一个方向跑，你就没事。

As long as the bull is pointed one direction, you are good.

对吧？

Right?

但真的，有时候它们拐弯时会摔倒，然后可能就往回冲了。

But, like, literally, because they'll one of them will wipe out, you know, going around the corner, and it could start coming back the other direction.

市场也是同样的道理。

And it's the same thing with markets.

没有趋势的市场，让人挺不安的。

A market with no trend is a bit unsettling.

对吧？

Right?

我觉得现在市场就处在没有明显趋势的状态。

And I feel like right now we're in a market with no trend.

你知道吧，说真的，这不会改变我的做法。

You know, look, it's not gonna change my approach.

你明白的。

You know?

我的资产配置是固定的。

I have a fixed allocation.

我始终坚持这个安排。

I stick to it.

你懂的。

You know?

我只投资于ETF基金。

I'm I'm, you know, I'm only in ETFs.

我分散了风险，诸如此类。

I'm diversified, etcetera.

但作为市场观察者，没有趋势的市场真的很让人不安，今天就有一个很好的例子。

But as an observer of the market, a trendless market is a scary thing, and there's a good example of this just today.

我们之前聊过，市场在美光财报公布前特别紧张。

So we discussed how the markets were very nervous heading into the Micron earnings.

美光的财报终于出来了，表现非常出色。

Micron earnings finally land, and they're terrific.

现在美光股价已经涨了，大概15%左右吧。

Micron is up, I don't know, 15% or something as we speak.

我也不太确定。

I don't know.

今天纳斯达克还是下跌的。

The Nasdaq today, still down.

大家期待的好消息终于来了。

So we got the good piece of news that everybody was looking for.

而且比所有人预想的还要好。

It was better news than even everybody expected.

我刚看了一眼，这股票现在涨了17%。

That stock, I'll just look at it now, is up 17%.