本集简介
双语字幕
仅展示文本字幕，不包含中文音频；想边听边看，请使用 Bayt 播客 App。
本节目由Plaud赞助支持。
Support for the show comes from Plaud.
如果你是高管、小企业主、项目经理、记者，或者任何需要做重要决策的人，细节就至关重要。
If you're an executive, small business owner, project manager, journalist, or anyone responsible for important decisions, details matter.
对话进行得很快，会议一结束，关键联系人、后续跟进和待办事项很容易就被忽略了。
Conversations move fast, and it's easy for key contacts, follow ups, and action items slip through the cracks once the meeting ends.
Plot是一个由AI驱动的笔记系统，专为专用录音设备设计。
Plot is an AI powered note taking system built around dedicated recording hardware.
它能记录对话、转录内容，并自动生成可搜索的文本、摘要和待办事项，让你专心参与讨论，而不必自己费力记录每一个细节。
It captures conversations, transcribes them, and turns them into searchable transcripts, summaries, and action items so you can focus on the discussion instead of worrying about capturing every detail yourself.
访问plod.ai/markets了解更多信息，并使用该markets代码享受最高15%的折扣。
Visit plod.ai/markets to learn more and use that markets code to get up to 15% off.
推荐真的可能很棒。
Recommendations can be amazing.
我的意思是，也许有人推荐过你最近沉迷的那部电视剧。
I mean, maybe someone recommended that TV show you've been obsessed with lately.
但说到家里的装修项目，情况就不一样了。
But when it comes to home projects, it's different.
如果你不喜欢一部剧，最多就是浪费几分钟。
If you don't like a show, you might lose a few minutes.
要是你请了一个朋友的朋友的朋友来修漏水的天花板，结果可能搞得厨房全淹了。
If you hire a friend of a friend of a friend to fix a leaky ceiling, you could end up with a flooded kitchen.
光靠熟人介绍，可能还不够靠谱。
Maybe I know a guy just isn't enough for your home.
这就是为什么Thumbtack这么管用。
That's why Thumbtack works so well.
他们会帮你匹配到本地评分最高的专业人士，你还能在App里直接看到他们以前的作品照片、资质和用户评价。
They'll match you with a top rated local pro, and you can see photos of past work, credentials, and reviews all right in the app.
下次做家装项目，试试Thumbtack吧。
For your next home project, try Thumbtack.
今天就雇个靠谱的专业人士吧。
Hire the right pro today.
晒太阳可能会被晒伤，但有些人就是愿意冒这个险。
If you sit in the sun, you may just get burned, but some people are willing to take that chance.
有种虚无主义的想法，觉得反正世界已经够糟了。
There is this certain degree of nihilism of like, oh, well, the world is bad anyway.
那我为什么不能也晒黑一点呢？
Why wouldn't I just also get a tan?
追求极致晒黑。
Tan maxing.
以上就是本期《为你解释》的全部内容。
That's this week on Explain It To Me.
你可以在任何播客平台收听最新一期。
Find new episodes wherever you get your podcasts.
今天的数据是70。
Today's number 70.
这是美国成年人每周听播客的比例相比2022年的增长幅度。
That's a percentage increase in US adults who listen to podcasts weekly compared to twenty twenty two.
埃德，有好几个人告诉我，摩根大通的首席投资官迈克尔·西姆博利斯发了一篇备忘录，说他对我在做客播客时开的一个粗俗笑话感到不满。
Ed, I've had several people tell me that Michael Symbolis, the chief investment officer of JPMorgan, put in a note, a research note that he's upset about a vulgar joke I made at the beginning of the podcast that he was a guest on.
迈克尔，我们向你道歉。
Michael, we apologize.
所以接下来我们要讲一个迈克尔·西姆博利斯式的冷笑话。
So we are going to have the Michael Symblis dad joke.
在收到你的回应、确认你接受我的道歉之前，我就只讲冷笑话了。
And that is until I hear from you and that you have accepted my apology, I'm just going to do dad jokes.
好。
Okay.
准备好了吗，埃德？
So you ready, Ed?
对。
Yeah.
迈克尔·桑德斯的冷笑话。
Michael Sanders dad joke.
来吧，让我们听听。
Let's hear it.
假面条叫什么？
What do you call a fake noodle?
什么？
What?
叫Impasta。
An impasta.
迈克尔，我们很喜欢你。
Michael, we love you.
别生我们的气。
Don't be angry at us.
跟我们联系吧。
Reach out.
跟我们联系吧。
Reach out.
宽恕真是件美好的事，迈克尔。
Forgiveness is a wonderful thing, Michael.
我特别喜欢。
I love it.
咱们今天开始聊正题吧？
Should we get into our our talk today?
今天我们有个特别有意思的对话，嘉宾是汤姆·李。
We have a very interesting conversation with Tom Lee.
我们最爱的嘉宾之一，那个总是看到积极面的汤姆·李。
One of our favorites, the what could go right, Tom Lee.
我真的很喜欢汤姆。
I love Tom.
咱们直接开始吧。
Let's get into it.
去年年底，有一位嘉宾上节目，对2026年提出了非常乐观的展望。
At the end of last year, one guest came on the show and laid out a notably bullish case for 2026.
再看现在，美国股市确实表现强劲，今年迄今已上涨近9%。
Fast forward to today, and The US stock market has indeed performed very well, up nearly 9% year to date.
但市场上仍有不少重大疑问悬而未决。
But a number of big question marks still loom over the market.
既然上半年已经结束，我们想回头问问那位嘉宾，他现在还看多吗？
So now that the first half of the year is in the books, we wanted to check back in with that guest and find out, is he still bullish?
投资者们忽略了哪些关键因素？
What are investors underestimating?
下半年市场又会走向何方？
And where are markets headed for the second half?
为了解开这些疑问，今天我们邀请到了Fundstrat Global Advisors的联合创始人、管理合伙人兼研究主管汤姆·李。
So to find out all of this, we are speaking with Tom Lee, co founder, managing partner and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors.
汤姆，欢迎来到节目。
Tom, great to have you on the show.
我们想先听听你对上半年的回顾，再聊聊你对下半年的展望，为今天的讨论定个基调。
We wanted to get your H1 review and then your kind of outlook for h two just to sort of set the stage here.
上半年标普指数涨了近9%，道指涨了8%，纳斯达克涨了11%。
We've got the S and P up nearly 9% in the first half, the Dow up 8%, the Nasdaq up 11%.
这其中当然有表现突出的，也有拖后腿的。
There are certainly some winners and losers among them.
你看那七大科技股，今年到目前为止表现一直不太理想。
You know, you look at the Mag seven, big tech, which has been kind of punished so far this year.
还有加密货币，这个我们待会儿再聊。
Also crypto, which we will get into in a moment.
不过咱们先聊聊你对今年上半年的整体看法。
But let's just start with your reflections on the first half of the year so far.
2026年有望成为连续第四年实现两位数涨幅。
2026 is tracking to be the fourth year of double digit gains.
可能会让观众意外的是，当市场连续三年强劲上涨——就像2023、2024和2025年这样——第四年通常也依然稳健。
It may surprise viewers, but when markets post three years of strong gains, which we've seen, 2023, 2024, 2025, the fourth year actually tends to be pretty solid.
这正是我们当初保持乐观的原因之一。
That was one reason we were constructive.
今年年初，大家觉得企业盈利会成为推动市场的关键因素，事实确实如此。年初时，市场对2027年标普500的盈利预期是350美元，现在已上调到400美元。
And at the start of this year, the thought was that the earnings could be the driver of the markets, And that's been the case, because at the start of this year, 2027 S and P earnings consensus, and very similar to ours, was $350 and now it's currently 400.
上涨了50美元。
So it's risen by $50.
年初时，2027年盈利对应的市盈率是19.4，现在降到了18.4。
And the PE on 2027 earnings was at 19.4 at the start of the year, it's now 18.4.
所以，尽管股市已经涨了9%，但其实现在的估值比今年一月还要更低，这点可能让人意外。
So the stock market, which might surprise people, has actually gotten cheaper now than it was in January, even though we're 9% higher.
我觉得现在保持乐观很有道理，因为我觉得美国企业的盈利还有进一步上调的空间。
I think it makes a lot of sense to be constructive here, because I do think there's room for earnings to further revise higher for The US.
推动盈利增长的基本面因素依然存在。
The drivers of earnings have remained in place.
一部分是眼下正在推进的人工智能和能源基础设施建设。
You know, part of it is this AI and energy infrastructure build that's taking place.
另一部分则是产业回流的趋势。
Part of it is this trend towards onshoring.
当然，政府还在继续投入一些基础设施建设资金。
And, of course, there's still some residual infrastructure spending by the government.
这些因素都在为支出提供助力。
So those are all tailwinds to spending.
我认为，大部分投资者的情绪还没有变得过度乐观，但到了年中，还有两个其他因素值得考虑。
And I think for the most part, investor sentiment has not become ebullient, but there are, two sort of other factors to weigh in now that we're mid year.
一个是，目前的保证金债务比年初高出了很多。
One is that margin debt is much, much higher now than it was at the start of the year.
事实上，同比上涨了55%。
In fact, it's risen 55% year over year.
这在近七十年里，是第五高的年度增幅。
That is, I think, the fifth highest year over year increase ever in almost seventy years.
历史上，这种情况往往意味着那些借钱炒股的交易者快要没劲儿了。
And historically, that's associated with that cohort of traders, you know, that borrow money running out of firepower.
但另一方面，今年来看基金经理的表现，大盘成长股领域有76%的基金经理跑输基准，这个比例相当罕见。
But on the flip side, when we look at fund manager performance this year, looking at large cap growth, 76% of fund managers are trailing their benchmark this year, which is a pretty historic number.
在大盘混合型股票上，有60%，这还没到历史性的程度。
On large cap blend, 60%, which is not as historic.
所以今天来看，成长型基金经理很可能错过了半导体和DRAM的这波上涨。
So today, I would say growth managers probably missed a lot of that semi and DRAM rally.
我觉得他们在下半年会拼命追赶，这也是我为什么倾向于保持乐观的原因。
I think they're gonna be chasing it in the second half, which is why I would probably stay bullish.
我对当前市场有很多担忧，比如看看席勒市盈率，现在高得离谱，快赶上互联网泡沫时期了。
I'm anxious about this market in a lot of ways because I look at, you know, the Shiller PE as an example, which is extremely high right now, basically coming up on .com territory.
我开始觉得，前瞻收益和历史收益之间的区别很重要。
And I guess I I there's a distinction between the forward earnings and the trailing earnings that I'm starting to feel is important.
我们看到的很多盈利，其实都依赖于这些AI公司的合同，但这些公司到底有没有能力兑现合同付款，是个问题。
And that is a lot of these earnings that we're seeing, they they hinge on these contracts with these AI companies whose ability to actually pay out on those contracts.
我觉得，对这些盈利的可持续性提出质疑，完全说得通。
I think it's not unreasonable to say that they should be at least questioned.
比如OpenAI、Anthropic、SpaceX这些公司的支出计划。
Open AI and their spending plans, Anthropic and their spending plans, SpaceX, etcetera.
同时，我们也看了最近一些研究，高盛也证实了这一点：我们看到的很多收益，尤其是大型科技公司的收益，其实反映的是它们对人工智能公司的私人投资持股增值，而这些增值因为会计准则被直接计入了当期利润。
And so and at the same time, we've also been looking at some of this research that was coming out recently that Goldman actually confirmed, which is that a lot of the earnings that we we're seeing, especially from big tech companies, a lot of those earnings reflect the increase in their stakes in their in their private investments in AI companies, and that is being reflected in the actual earnings themselves because of these accounting standards.
所以说，我关注的是收益增长。
Point being, I look at the earnings growth.
收益增长确实很强劲，但我对此有点犹豫，特别是当他们说未来十二个月的收益会达到多少多少的时候。
The earnings growth is really strong, but I feel a little bit ambivalent about it, especially when they say earnings over the next twelve months are gonna be x, y, z.
我很想听听你对我的这种怀疑怎么看。
I'd just be interested to hear your views on my, I guess, skepticism.
我同意你的看法，因为你确实提出了关于收益质量的问题。
I'm gonna agree because I think you're raising questions about quality of earnings.
我觉得有几件事确实值得怀疑收益的质量。
You know, I guess there's a few things that would make me question quality of earnings.
比如，投资带来的资产负债表收益，和实际的经营性收益是两回事。
You know, one is balance sheet gains from investments aren't the same as an operating earnings.
还有第二个区别，就是当前存在一定的定价行为。比如说，在芯片供应链里，有些公司没法扩大产能，或者扩产周期太长，于是就选择提价。
I think there's a second difference, which is that there is an element of pricing taking place, because for instance, you know, in the supply chain for chips, there's companies that can't increase fab production, or there's a long lead time, so they can take price instead.
所以现在更多的利润会直接体现在底部，但这会带来牛鞭效应，因为我们都知道，供应链最终还是会跟上来的。
So now you're gonna get more flow through to the bottom line, but that creates the bullwhip effect, because we know ultimately the supply chain catches up.
还有就是支出高度集中，毕竟大型云服务商正在大笔花钱，现在又要求股市来为这些支出买单。
And then there is concentrated spenders, because we know hyperscalers are writing big checks, and now they're asking equity markets to fund that.
这就是为什么谷歌有这种融资渠道，Meta也可能效仿，当然还有SpaceX的IPO，这些都是为了从公开市场筹集资金。
That's why Google has their ATM, and that's why we're seeing Meta potentially do that, and of course, you know, SpaceX's IPO, these are all efforts to raise the money from the public markets.
最后一点是，信贷消费也在增加。
And then lastly is that there's consumption of credit taking place.
所以我们现在是在动用资本结构的另一个部分来支撑这些开支。
So now we're tapping into another part of the capital structure to fund that.
因此，我认为这些理由都说明，我们在评估盈利增长时，应该对市盈率保持更谨慎的态度。
So I think those are all appropriate reasons to be sort of raising the bar on how much multiple you apply to the earnings growth.
不过话说回来，大部分这类活动主要集中在四个国家。
That being said, I think a lot of the activity is mainly taking place in four countries.
所以我们得认真想想这背后意味着什么。
And so we have to really think about what that means.
这四个国家，当然是美国和中国，然后我通常把韩国和台湾归为一类，也就是AI基础设施的合作伙伴，再就是日本可能也算在内。
You know, the four countries, of course, are The United States and China, and then it's, I kinda say KoreaTaiwan, so the AI infrastructure partners, and then possibly like Japan.
所以，尽管我们可能持怀疑态度，但正在上演的现实是，人工智能真正受益的只有少数几个国家。
So the story that's unfolding, as much as we might be skeptical, really is one where AI is clearly only benefiting a handful of countries.
比如看席勒市盈率，对我们来说，现在真正的问题是：市场是不是过热了？
So when you look at the the, like, the Schiller PE, for example, I mean, the the the real question for us right now is, is it frothy?
目前大家对这一点似乎意见不一，挺有意思的是，每个人都盯着不同的指标，都在琢磨：这到底是不是泡沫？
And I it's almost seems like there's there's not a lot of agreement on this on this point right now, which is interesting, that we're all kind of looking at different metrics and we're all trying to determine, is it really bubblicious?
这真的过热了吗？
Is it really frothy?
还是说其实并没有？
Or is it not?
你对这个问题怎么看？
What is your view on that point?
我觉得，盈利的质量在这个讨论中应该是个关键因素。
Because I think the quality of earnings probably has a role to play in that conversation.
以前我在摩根大通的时候，我们就这么做过，现在在Fundstrat我们依然保持这个做法——你可以按行业分别计算席勒市盈率。
One thing that we've done in the past at when I was at JPMorgan, and we continue to maintain at Fundstrat is, you know, you can run a Schiller PE by sector.
这样比较起来，才更公平合理。
And in that way, it kinda more is apples to apples.
比如，如果你单独看科技板块的席勒市盈率，就能把现在和1929年的情况直接对比。
Like, for instance, if you did text Schiller PE, then you can sort of judge it nineteen twenty nine versus now.
当然，那时候所谓的科技公司，跟现在完全不一样，那时候主要是做收音机、微波炉的公司。
Of course, what is a technology company back then is very different, because, you know, that was radio makers and microwave ovens at some point.
但按这个方法算，现在的席勒市盈率就没那么高了，因为如今的盈利结构里，科技行业的占比越来越大。
But by that measurement, the Schiller PE is not nearly as extended, just because the composition of earnings now today is increasingly coming from tech.
科技板块的盈利增长，我记不清具体数字了，但估计占了整体盈利增长的六七成，不过在总盈利中的占比大概在四成左右。
So tech is probably, I'm sorry, don't have the exact numbers, but I think it's gonna be 60 or 70% of all earnings growth, but it's probably close to 40% of the level of earnings.
但在1999年，情况完全不是这样。
And in '99, that wasn't true.
那时候科技板块对盈利贡献并不大，但它对估值倍数的推高作用却非常强。
You know, tech wasn't a big earnings contributor in '99, but it a big multiple contributor.
所以从结构上看，ISM数据也反映了同样的趋势——如果把制造业和服务业分开来看，过去五十年里，经济活动的主力已经从制造业转向了仅占三成的制造业。
So I think that compositionally, and the ISM is the same, showing the same thing, if you do the split between manufacturing services, we've flipped just in the last fifty years from manufacturing being the majority of activity to only 30%.
因此，我觉得舒勒市盈率还有可能继续走高。
So I think we have room for the Schiller PE to be higher.
不过我想补充一个合理的问题：信贷利差是不是在低估风险？
But a fair question I would add to what you're saying is like, is credit spreads, you know, is credit underpricing risk?
因为国债收益率一直在上升，但高收益债和投资级债券的利差却一直维持在低位，这让我挺意外的。
Because, you know, the tenure's been going up, and I've been surprised at how tight high yield spreads have remained, and investment grade.
按理说，地缘政治风险加上高利率带来的资本成本压力，利差应该扩大才对，但事实并非如此。
You'd think that with geopolitical risks and the high level of rates that is creating a cost of capital burden that spreads should widen, but they haven't.
对我来说，与其盯着股市会不会崩，我更关注信贷市场的情况，我觉得信贷市场其实在告诉我们，市场上可能还是流动性过剩。
And, you know, it could I mean, to me, I'd be watching credit before I watched equities crack, but I think credit is probably telling us there's actually still too much liquidity out there.
我觉得现在围绕一些大型IPO的影响，或者它们的次级效应，存在一些相互矛盾的说法。
It feels like there's contradictory forces or narratives around the impact or second order effects of some of these big IPOs.
我注意到的一个观点是，这些IPO会吸走市场上大量的资金或资本。
And one of the themes I've seen is it'll soak up a lot of the market or a lot of the capital out there for IPOs.
另一个说法是，这对IPO市场会非常有利，等于说IPO的大门又打开了。
And the other narrative I've seen is that it'll be very constructive for IPOs because it's sort of saying the IPO window is open again.
嘿。
Hey.
你对这个怎么看？
Do you what are your thoughts on that?
你觉得这些即将上市的大公司IPO会带来哪些连锁影响？
And what do you see as the second order effects of some of these bigger IPOs coming down the pipeline?
我觉得IPO主要影响三类群体。
I think there are, like, sort of three cohorts being affected by IPOs.
首先是发行方。
You know, one is the issuer.
其次是这些拟上市公司背后的股东。
The second is the holders of the private companies of these IPOs.
第三是整个更广泛的市场。
And the third is, you know, sort of the broader market.
SpaceX 就是个很好的例子。
And SpaceX, you know, is is a good example.
他们上市时的市值才750亿美元，而公司总估值超过1.5万亿美元。
Their IPO was only 75,000,000,000 of a $1,500,000,000,000 company for over one and a half trillion.
所以现在流通股的市值只有900亿美元。
So today, this the float's only 90,000,000,000.
作为一只股票，SpaceX 的市值还不如大多数纳斯达克100指数成分股。
SpaceX, as a stock, is trading less market cap than most of the Nasdaq 100.
你明白吧？
You know?
它大概能排进纳斯达克前几名。
It's probably Nasdaq.
按总市值算，它稳居前50。
It's top 50 in terms of total market cap.
所以股价表现不错，但这些股票会分批解禁。
And that's why it's trading well, but those those shares are gonna unlock in phases.
但到今年年底，应该会有超过一万亿美元的股份释放出来。
But by the end of the year, over a trillion should be available.
我觉得，对公众和整个市场来说，这个供应量实在太大了。
I think that that for the public and for the general market, that is a lot of supply.
我觉得，到了今年年底，SpaceX的股份释放会对市场产生巨大影响。
I think the supply effect of SpaceX is gonna be as we get to the end of this year.
但在那之前，已经创造了巨额财富，因为SpaceX整个历史上只融资了180亿美元，却估值涨到了1.5万亿美元。
But before that happens, there's massive wealth created because SpaceX only raised 18,000,000,000 in its entire history, and it turned into 1,500,000,000,000.
所以，那些在私有阶段持有SpaceX股份的人，现在拥有了惊人的财富，这些财富会真正带动经济——因为银行会以这些资产为抵押给他们贷款，我觉得这实际上能拉动GDP增长。
So the holders of SpaceX when it was private have enormous wealth created that actually is gonna be true economic stimulation because every bank will lend them money against their holdings, and so I think it actually boosts GDP.
你说得对，斯科特。
So you're right, Scott.
确实存在一些反向力量。
There's countervailing forces.
我的看法是，这些IPO会让整体经济受益，因为这是一次大规模的财富释放。
My take is that the broad economy is gonna benefit from all these IPOs because it's massive wealth unlock.
在解锁发生之前，股市表现会不错。
The stock market will do well until the unlocks happen.
因为一旦解锁，市场就得消化掉这么多新增股份。
Because at that point, when the unlocks happen, you have to absorb all that supply.
发行方会受益很大，因为他们现在能从公众市场筹钱，可能还会加快支出。
And the issuers are gonna do very well because now they have a way to tap public money and to raise and and maybe accelerate spending.
所以我觉得发行方会从他们的上市中获益。
So I think issuers will benefit from their IPOs.
我们还是回到资本支出这个话题上，特别是这些AI公司对资本支出做出的惊人承诺，我认为这推高了大量股票的价格。
Let's stick on this notion of CapEx and our second order effects of specifically of these AI companies who've made these extraordinary commitments around CapEx, which I believe has elevated a lot of these stocks.
我想提出一个观点。
And I'll put forward a thesis.
看起来OpenAI可能会搁置上市计划。
It looks like OpenAI might be shelving its IPO.
我怀疑这意味着市场势头变了，或者增长预期没达到预期。
I gotta think that that means the momentum has shifted or the growth expectations aren't living up to expectation.
你有没有担心，我们已经开始看到AI这个故事出现了一些裂痕？我不是说AI泡沫，但这种裂痕可能会波及整个市场？还是说你并不太担心？
Do you have any fear that that we are starting to see some cracks in the I don't wanna call it the AI bubble, but in the AI story, and that would ripple through the markets, or are you less worried?
确实，AI这个故事里有很多潜在问题，斯科特。首先，你知道的，我们必须同步建设大量电力和基础设施来支撑这一切。
Well, there's a lot of things that can go wrong with the AI story, Scott, and that because one, as you know, we have to build a parallel amount of power and infrastructure to support all this.
要把这些东西全都建起来，难度大得惊人。
Getting all that built is is an enormous lift.
我的意思是，我们甚至都还不清楚这会对居民电费造成什么影响。
I mean, you know, we won't even really know what it means for residential electricity prices.
对吧？
Right?
还有环境破坏，或者你要是住在大型数据中心旁边，生活质量会不会受影响，这些我们都还不清楚。
Or, like, environmental damage, you know, or, like, quality of life if you live around a hyperscaler, a data center.
我觉得Anthropic和OpenAI双双推迟IPO的原因，目前还不明确。
And I think that we don't exactly know why both Anthropic and OpenAI delayed their IPOs.
这其实挺让人好奇的，因为如果其中一家先上市，另一家反而能从中受益。
I think that's actually very curious because both would benefit from one going public first.
没人想当最后一个，对吧？
Nobody would want to be last, you know?
我觉得可能是美国政府在限制新模型的发布，你说呢？
I think it's possible it has to do with the US government throttling new models, right?
你瞧，Mythos 遭到了大量审查，结果 Fable 也被叫停了。
Because, you know, like mythos faced a lot of like, you know, scrutiny, and then fable had to get pulled.
会不会是美国政府说，我们得好好审查你们的所有模型，然后你们就得暂停计划了？
You know, is it possible the US government is actually saying like, we gotta like, look at all your models now, and then they gotta like throttle their plans?
有可能吧，我也说不准。
Maybe, I don't know.
但对我来说，这确实挺让人疑惑的。
I mean, but to me, it's curious.
我觉得 SpaceX 取得了巨大成功，所以我不认为它和 OpenAI 或 Anthropic 延迟上市有什么关系。
I actually think SpaceX is huge success, so I don't think SpaceX has any reason anything to do with OpenAI and Anthropix slowing their IPOs.
广告后我们马上回来，如果你喜欢这档节目，周日别忘了收听我们的创始人系列。
We'll be right back after the break, and if you're enjoying the show so far, tune in on Sunday for our founder series.
我们接下来将采访Hims和Hers的首席执行官兼联合创始人安德鲁·杜德姆。
We'll be speaking with Andrew Dudem, the CEO and cofounder of Hims and Hers.
一、二、三。
One, two, three.
我是单口喜剧演员，约翰·马尔科·塞拉西。
I'm stand up comedian, John Marco Serraci.
我是演员兼男性模特，拉塞尔·丹尼尔斯。
And I'm actor, penis model, Russell Daniels.
《阴暗面》是我们的一档播客，专门邀请嘉宾聊聊他们生活有多惨。
The Downside is our podcast where we bring on guests to talk about how miserable their lives are.
说白了，事情并没有变得更好。
Because let's face it, things are not getting better.
每期节目我们都会聊聊自己、嘉宾，还有这个世界到底哪里出了问题，但方式是轻松有趣的。
Every episode we talk about what's wrong with our lives, our guests' lives, the world, but in a fun way.
总之，听完之后，你会觉得自己的生活其实还不错。
Bottom line is you're going walk away feeling better about your life.
我们请过好多有趣的嘉宾，比如凯莱布·休伦。
We've had so many cool guests, Caleb Huron.
布西·菲利普斯。
Busy Phillips.
斯塔夫罗斯·哈尔基亚斯。
Stavros Halkias.
拉弗恩·考克斯。
Laverne Cox.
哈桑·派克。
Hassan Piker.
阿兰娜·格拉泽。
Alana Glazer.
我保证你会过得特别开心。
I promise you're gonna have a good time.
现在在Vox Media播客网络播出。
Now on the Vox Media Podcast Network.
这是《Downside》。
This is the Downside.
一切始于《Call Me Maybe》。
It all started with Call Me Maybe.
十多年前，
Over ten years ago,
我们创办了《Switched On Pop》，就是为了更仔细地听音乐，揭开那些最浮华的流行金曲背后的创作奥秘。
we created Switched On Pop to listen closer, uncovering the song craft behind even the glossiest of pop hits.
从那以后，我们已经推出了将近五百期节目。
Since then, we've released almost 500 episodes.
我们定义了这个时代的声音图景，采访了数百位音乐人和业内人士，包括《Call Me Maybe》的原唱卡莉·蕾·杰普森本人。
We've defined the sounds of our modern soundtrack and interviewed hundreds of musicians and music insiders, including the singer of Call Me Maybe herself, Carly Rae Jepsen.
我是音乐学家内特·斯隆。
I'm musicologist Nate Sloan.
我是词曲作者查理·哈丁。
And I'm songwriter Charlie Harding.
7月14日，《Switched On Pop》将开启新篇章。
And on July 14, Switched on Pop is embarking on a new chapter.
我们不再只躲在麦克风后面，而是走到镜头前，在Netflix上直播我们的播客。
We're stepping out from behind our microphones and in front of the camera to stream our podcast on Netflix.
当然，你依然
Now, you'll still be
可以在任何听播客的地方收听节目，但现在你每周还能看到我们剖析当下热门歌曲的音乐细节，深入探讨那些细微之处，和你喜爱的音乐人一起，顺便继续讲那些不怎么好笑的爸爸笑话。
able to listen to the show anywhere you get podcasts, but now you'll be able to watch us each week breaking down the sounds of the moment, digging into musical minutiae with your favorite and offering questionable dad jokes as always.
我们首播的Netflix系列将分为四集，主题是歌曲的艺术，邀请了亚伦·德斯纳、奥德丽·霍巴特、特雷弗·霍恩、赛普雷斯山和泰勒·帕克斯等音乐人、制作人和词曲作者共同参与。
We're kicking off our Netflix debut with a four part series on the art of the song with help from artists, producers, and songwriters like Aaron Dessner, Audrey Hobart, Trevor Horn, Cypress Hill, and Taylor Parks.
从7月14日起，每周二，《Switched On Pop》将在Netflix和所有播客平台同步上线。
Stream Switched on Pop on Netflix and anywhere you get podcasts every Tuesday starting on July 14.
我们回来了，继续《Prof G 市场》。
We're back with Prof G Markets.
我只是想再深入问问，为什么OpenAI不打算上市呢？
I mean, just to push on this idea of, like, why why is OpenAI not going public?
他们到底在担心什么？
Why are they worried?
他们到底焦虑些什么？
What are they anxious about?
我想听听你的看法。
I'd like to get your view views on this.
说实话，从财务角度看，OpenAI 的处境有点糟糕。
I mean, it seems as though from a financial perspective, OpenAI is a little bit of in a little bit of a shitty spot.
直白点说，从盈利的角度来看。
I mean, just to put it plainly, from the from the profitability side.
去年他们亏了将近四千亿美金，这事实摆在这儿。
I mean, just the fact that last year they lost, you know, almost $40,000,000,000.
单看运营利润，他们去年就亏了大约两千一百亿美金。
If you look at, like, the operating profitability, they lost around $21,000,000,000 last year.
目前我们对人工智能的了解是，收入增长非常迅猛。
What we know about AI at this point is that the revenues are the growth is tremendous.
使用量也在增长，但运行和训练这些模型的成本实在太高了。
Usage is growing as well, but they're incredibly expensive to both run these models and also to train these models.
到目前为止，还没看到人工智能业务真的能赚钱。
And we haven't seen that the AI business is actually a profitable business yet.
现在还处在试验阶段。
It's still sort of in the test phase.
所以我在想，OpenAI最近财务数据泄露了，他们是不是有点慌？
And so I wonder if OpenAI I mean, we saw that their financials were leaked recently.
从我个人角度看，大家的反应其实不太乐观。
The reaction was a little bit not great, just on a anecdotal basis.
我觉得从盈利角度看，他们的财务数据糟糕得有点出乎意料。
I thought the financials were surprisingly bad from a profitability perspective.
我怀疑他们是觉得投资者承受不了，所以得先把商业模式理清楚再公开。
And I wonder if they're just like, investors can't handle this, and we need to figure our our our business out before we go out.
我很好奇，你觉得这会不会是原因之一？另外，你怎么看这类公司？现在大家把太多希望押在它们身上，可它们连赚钱的方式都还没搞明白。
I'd just be I'd be curious to hear if maybe that if you think that might have played into it, and also what you think of these businesses themselves, the fact that we're we have there's so much riding on these companies, and yet they haven't figured out their business models.
好吧。
Okay.
我只是说说我的看法，毕竟我也没掌握全部情况。
Well, I'm just gonna speak my opinion because I don't really have the full facts.
我觉得如果OpenAI选择上市或者做慈善机构，他们的IPO一定会非常成功。
I think if OpenAI was to go public or philanthropic, their IPOs would be very, very successful.
原因很简单，他们的故事很容易让人理解。
And the reason being is that their stories are pretty straightforward to understand.
他们不是那种业务庞杂的 conglomerate。
You know, they don't they're not a conglomerate.
OpenAI 和 Anthropic 明显走在前沿，正在打造未来能为我们服务的复杂推理模型。
Opening and Anthropic are clearly at the forefront of, like, creating complex reasoning models that are eventually gonna become our agents for us.
但普通公众根本接触不到这些技术。
And the public has no access to it.
就连机构投资者也很难真正接触到。
Institutional investors don't really have access.
我觉得他们在私募市场筹钱根本不是问题。
I think that their ability to raise money in the private market is still not a problem.
你知道，他们已经轻松融到了几百亿美元，这可能是他们选择暂停的原因之一。
You know, I think that they've had no problem raising tens of billions of dollars, so it's probably one reason that they are pausing.
但说真的，我觉得这挺让人好奇的。
But it, I mean, again, I'd say it's curious to me.
不过我觉得，投资者看OpenAnthropic的时候，并不把它当成一个订阅制业务，他们更看重自由现金流。
But I think investors, when they look at OpenAnthropic, aren't looking at this as a subscription business, and, you know, they need to see free cash flow.
他们需要看到一家愿意花钱、招人，来保持领先地位的公司，毕竟这两家公司的模式非常独特。
I think they need to see a company willing to spend and recruit to maintain leadership, which because they they are two very unique businesses.
但再说一遍，我不是内部人士，所以我也说不准。
But, again, I I'm not an insider, so I I don't know.
作为投资者，你个人喜欢这个故事吗？
Do you as an investor like that story personally?
这正是我想弄明白的地方，因为我觉得我跟你想法一致。
This is the thing that I I I'm trying to figure out because I think I'm with you.
我觉得，现在正是人工智能对市场至关重要的时刻，而这两家公司正是领头羊。
I think, you know, AI is, you know, it's such an important moment for the markets, and these are the two leaders.
既然机会摆在眼前，为什么不抓住呢？
And if it's on the table, why wouldn't you go for it?
但我认为，商业模式这个问题依然是个巨大的未解之谜。
But I do think that the business model question is still a giant unanswered question.
我很想听听你个人怎么看这个问题。
I'd be curious to hear how you view it personally.
这仍然是一个未来才会有定论的故事。
This is still a story that's gonna is being written in the future tense.
我们现在才刚翻开第一章。
Like, we're only chapter one.
充其量，我们只能做一些猜测和类比。
At best, we can make guesses, analogies.
举个例子，虽然不想岔开话题，但在我看来，他们最了不起的成就其实是把卫星频谱盘活了。
I mean, for instance, not to fork the conversation, but to me, SpaceX is the most significant achievement they did, is they turned satellite spectrum, right?
SpaceX 完全靠卫星频谱运行，也就是 Starlink，而当初这些频谱的价值，跟地面频谱比起来简直微不足道。
SpaceX entirely runs on satellite spectrum, Starlink, and then their future, that was worth pennies compared to terrestrial spectrum.
但他们却让这些频谱成了全球最有价值的资源。
And they made it the most valuable spectrum in the world.
埃隆几乎没花什么钱，就拿下了全球的卫星频谱。
Like Elon was able to get all the global spectrum for like nothing.
可现在在美国，想拿到 20 兆赫的蜂窝频谱，得花 200 美元每人。
Whereas in The US today, it's like to get 20 megahertz wide of cellular, you're paying $200 per person.
他把原本几乎免费的卫星频谱，变成了全球最有价值的频谱。
I mean, so he took satellite spectrum for nothing, and now it's the most valuable spectrum in the world.
Meta 抓住了用户生成内容这个免费的模式，当初这不过是大家发发照片的电子年鉴，结果他们把它做成了历史上最赚钱的商业模式之一。
Meta took a free business with user generated content, which was originally just sort of like a yearbook for people, and and they turned it into one of the biggest monetization businesses ever.
我记得 Meta 刚做移动端的时候，很多人都觉得不可能——Facebook 在电脑上已经那么丰富了，手机上还能怎么更好？
And I remembered when Meta launched the mobile business, people didn't think there was anything to how could Facebook be even better on a mobile because, you know, there was so much richness on the desktop version?
但恰恰就是移动端，让他们抢走了整个广告市场。
But if that's that was the key to them take stealing the advertising business.
OpenAI 和 Anthropic 凭借他们开发的复杂推理模型，谁知道他们会吞并哪个行业呢？
OpenAI Anthropic, with because of their creation of basically complex reasoning models, who knows what kind of industry they're gonna subsume?
我们可能觉得，顶多就是广告行业吧。
Like, we think maybe it's just advertising.
也许我们对他们的商业模式理解得太简单了。
Maybe we're oversimplifying their what their actual business model is.
他们会不会去搞未来的生物技术实验室呢？
Like, are they gonna be creating biotech labs, you know, of the future?
还是说，他们会打造全新的劳动力体系？
Or are they gonna create workforces?
我觉得这事儿还得等着看，现在说不准。
I I think it's a sort of a story to be told.
但当我看看像 Meta 这样的公司，他们做到了什么，或者 Google，他们拿下了搜索领域，
But I would say when I look at the most valuable companies like Meta and what they achieved, or even Google, which took search.
对吧？
Right?
他们把搜索做到了一个完全不同的高度。
They really took search to a much different level.
还有SpaceX掌握了卫星频谱资源。
And and SpaceX taking satellite spectrum.
我觉得正因如此，这些公司未来上市时仍有可能成为巨大的爆款。
I think that that's why there's a not zero chance that these could be massive home runs as IPOs still.
我完全同意你的看法。
100% agree with you.
很高兴你提到这一点。
I think it's I'm glad you bring it up.
但你有没有想过，像OpenAI这样的公司如果失败了呢？比如没打出本垒打，萨姆·阿尔特曼做错了决定，最终一败涂地？
Do you think, though, that the risk of them of OpenAI, as an example, not working, that they don't make that home run, that it something goes wrong, Sam Altman makes the wrong move, and they crash and burn in some way.
在我看来，这种可能性也不是零，不仅OpenAI的估值应该考虑这个风险，整个市场也高度依赖OpenAI的成功——他们花大钱买算力、买芯片，这些都得靠它撑着。
Part of my view is I feel like that's also a non zero probability that ought to be priced in, not just in terms of the price of OpenAI, but also in the price of the markets at large, have become so dependent in a lot of ways in OpenAI succeeding and also OpenAI spending lots and lots of money and paying for all of this compute and all of these chips.
有意思的是，OpenAI越成功，就有两件事越明显。
Well, it's an interesting irony because the the more successful OpenAI becomes, two things are apparent.
萨姆·阿尔特曼越重要，因为他作为一个人，必须亲自做决定。
The more important Sam Altman is, because it is really him having to, as a human, make decisions.
你懂的，我敢打赌他不会在聊天窗口里问：‘我接下来该干嘛？’
You know, like, I'm sure he's not typing into chat GBT, like, should I do next?
对吧？
Right?
不，你可能真会这么干。
No, you might be.
但他的战略要想实现，离不开顶尖人才的支撑。
But the self actualization of like his strategy requires highly, highly skilled humans.
你明白吧？
You know?
说到底，打造这两家了不起的公司，核心还是靠人。
So like, it's a very much a people story to make both amazing companies.
你说得对。
And you're right.
所以你是在押注萨姆和他的愿景，同时也押注了Anthropos团队和他们的方向。
So you're betting on Sam and his vision, and you're betting on Anthropix team and their vision.
这简直就是一场双雄对决。
And, you know, it it it's it is a two horse race there.
如果他们走上不同的路，两家都有可能成功。
And they both could be successful too if they fork in different directions.
让我担心的是，整个市场都把希望寄托在他身上，指望他能真正把AI这个故事做出来。
That bet is the thing that makes me anxious about this market, that a lot is riding on him and his ability to execute and to make the AI story actually work.
如果这事没成，我觉得标普500今年涨了近9%，大部分涨幅其实都来自少数几家公司——不是那些大科技巨头，而是半导体、DRAM、存储芯片这类公司，全是支撑这场AI热潮的‘卖铲人’。
And if it doesn't, it seems to me that the S and P, which has risen nearly 9% this year, most of that growth is coming from a handful of companies, not the big tech companies, but the semis and the dram companies, the memory companies, all of the sort of chips and shovel stocks that are fueling this AI boom.
要是这个逻辑崩了，事情没像我们预期的那样发展，那市场很可能会迎来一次剧烈而迅猛的下行调整。
If that story doesn't work out, if things don't work out the way with the way that we'd hoped, it seems as though you're gonna see a very, very significant and violent shift to the downside.
但到现在还没发生，这个故事还在继续往前走。
But it hasn't happened yet, and the story continues to roll on.
我想，这肯定也在你的关注范围内吧。
I just I I assume that's on your radar.
不过我觉得我们得记住一点，我们可能只是在讲一个故事。就算OpenAI和Anthropic真的出了问题，我觉得标普的盈利也不会比400点差太多，对吧？
I think one thing, though, we should keep in mind is that it is we're sort of maybe speaking in a narrative sense, because, you know, even as important as OpenAI is and Anthropic, if they were to, let's say, stumble here, I think S and P earnings wouldn't fall that much short of the 400, you know?
但我们也得明白，从1940年代至今，历史上每个关键时点，真正掌控市场的人只有一个——那就是美联储。
But we also have to keep in mind that, like, one there's actually one person that in every point in history since the 1940s, is like the most important person's hand on the market, which is the Fed.
美联储主席，就一个人。
Like the Federal Reserve chairman is a single person.
这可是典型的‘关键人物风险’。
Like that's big key man risk.
而且说实话，这事儿挺神奇的，我们从来没遇到过美联储主席突然无法履职的情况。
And you know, it's been amazing because, you know, we've never really had a Fed chairman suddenly, like, be incapacitated from their job.
你知道吧？
You know?
我觉得这简直是资本主义的奇迹。
I mean, I think that's a miracle of capitalism.
比如说，今天凯文·沃什，实际上可能是世界上最重要的几个人之一。
Because, like, you know, Kevin Warsh today is actually arguably one of the most important people in the world now.
我同意你的看法。
I'd agree with you.
确实存在脆弱性。
There's there's fragility.
你看，标普指数现在是7300点。
I mean, the market is, you know, S and P here, it's 7,300.
我刚想起来，2009年市场最低的时候才六百多点。
It you know, I just remembered in 2009, the market bottomed in the 600s.
你明白我的意思吧？
So, you know what I mean?
确实涨了不少，不过幸运的是，现在的市盈率比2009年低多了。
It's definitely come a long way, but fortunately, the multiple is lower today than it was in 2009.
你说得对，最大的不同在于，美国经济突然加速增长了，这全是因为人工智能，也正因如此，我们一方面能安心，因为这事主要就发生在几个国家；但另一方面又很担忧，因为你没错，它让我们越来越依赖那么几个人。
But you're right, it's you know, what's very different is The US economy suddenly is growing faster for everything you've described, which is because of AI, and that's really, you know, the reason we can be both comforted, because it's really happening mostly in a few countries, but then we can be very worried because you're right, it's creating path dependency on, you know, a on a handful of people.
对。
Yeah.
这几乎让人忍不住想问，面对这种脆弱性，你到底该怎么做？
It's almost like the question becomes, what do you wanna do about that fragility?
你会因为市场太脆弱，就干脆退出吗？
Do you decide because it's fragile, oh, I'm out?
还是说，你同时意识到，确实有像你提到的那样一举成名的机会，你不想错失它？
Or do you recognize at the same time, yeah, there is home run opportunity as you mentioned, and do I wanna miss out on that?
这确实是关键问题。
It's kind of the big question.
我先把话筒交给Scott，之后我们再聊聊你对今年下半年的一些预测。
I'll pass it over to Scott and then we'll get into some of your predictions for the second half of the year.
Tom，你提到AI正在推动生产率的大幅提升，我们确实看到了生产率的上升，这不只是技术热潮。
So Tom, you've said that AI is creating a productivity boom and we have seen an uptick in productivity and not just a technology boom.
你认为哪些行业最能从这种生产率提升中受益？
What industries do you think benefit most from that increase in productivity?
这一点其实很难直接量化。
It's one of the things that is fairly hard to measure explicitly.
我觉得AI已经证明了几件事，当然，我这说的是个人观察——首先，它让那些本来就很能干的人效率提升了很多。
Because I think that what AI has proven is a couple of things, you know, one, and I'm being anecdotal, but one is of course it makes people a lot more, people who are highly capable, very productive.
我在Fundstrat资本和Fundstrat公司就亲眼见过，我们其实是在用一大群研究人员，但说白了，都是那些AI代理在干活。
Because I've seen that at Fundstrat Capital and Fundstrat, where we are deploying essentially an army of researchers, but it's really just our clawed agents.
同时，它也让我们看清了工作的本质，因为大多数人总觉得，哎，这不就是个每周四十小时的工作吗？
But it's also revealing the nature of work, because most people say, hey, this is a forty hour week job.
从经济统计的角度，我们通常说你每周工作三十六小时，或者因为打卡记录，就认定是四十小时。
And from an economic when we measure it economically, we say, oh, you work thirty six hours, or, you know, we have, like, because they punched a clock or, you know, a forty hour week.
但我们都清楚，在这四十小时里，大多数人真正高效工作的时间其实只占一小部分。
But we know that most people in that forty hours probably only work x percent of the time.
说到底，人们到底有多少时间是在真正产出的？
You know, what is the actual time people are productive?
会不会一周四十小时里，真正有效工作才六个小时？
Is it six out of the forty hours a week?
这完全有可能。
Know, it's possible.
展开剩余字幕（还有 288 条）
其余大部分时间，人们只是在找东西、吃午饭，或者做些别的事。
And most of other time, people are just searching and eating lunch and, you know, doing other things.
所以AI做的，就是填补了这些空白，创造了实际的工作成果。
So what AI has done is it's helped fill in all that blank space and created work.
我想，这大概就是生产力的提升吧。
And so I guess that's productivity.
我觉得很多白领工作，还有医疗、金融和科技行业，都完全符合这种情况。
I believe a lot of white collar jobs, and even healthcare industries, and financial services, and tech really meet all that criteria.
AI让这些人的效率大幅提升，理论上他们每周还是只投入那百分之几的四十小时，但产出却多得多。
That AI is making all of those people highly productive, and they might still, in theory, only be working the same X percent of the forty hours, but now a lot more is being accomplished.
再过几年，我们就能看到，机器人会变得非常灵巧，技术也很高超，现在大家觉得这只会发生在仓库和工厂里。
In a couple of years, we know that it shouldn't be too long before we could say, hey, robots are gonna be highly skilled with a lot of dexterity, and people think it's only gonna be warehouses and factories.
这个说法没错。
And I think that's true.
但我认为，用不了几年，住宅建筑行业也会被彻底改变。
But I think in a couple years, like residential construction will be transformed.
想象一下，未来家宅会由艺术家和机器人一起建造。
Like, think homes will be built by artists and robots.
我们可以用石头雕刻出一座卢浮宫当你的家，价格却和普通房子差不多。
Like, we could build a Louvre as your house carved out a stone, and it's like the same price as your house.
借助机器人，我们能重现欧洲那些如今在美国根本建不起来的精美建筑。
And we could recreate all of this wonderful architecture that Europe had built that you can't build in America today, but with robots.
所以我认为，当机器人具备更强能力后，生产力就会迎来这样的飞跃。
So I think there's gonna be that kind of productivity when robots gain a lot of capabilities.
我想再深入说一点，我们每年都会挑一家表现突出的大科技公司做重点分析，这事儿挺冒险的。
I just wanna double click on that because our one of our you know, every year we try and, and it's dangerous, pick one of the big tech companies that outperform.
今年我最关注的是亚马逊，原因正是你刚才提到的。
And the the one that I'm most interested in this year is Amazon for the reason you just highlighted.
我们的观点是，真正能兑现AI创造股东价值的，主要在两个领域：一是自动驾驶，特别是Waymo；二是工业机器人。
And that is our thesis is that where AI actually does create the shareholder value creation lives up to the hype is in one autonomous, specifically Waymo, but two industrialized robots.
亚马逊已经拥有一百万台工业机器人，而全美国其他公司加起来才四十万台。
And Amazon has a million industrialized robots, and the rest of the nation has 400,000 combined.
你觉得亚马逊会从你所设想的这个机器人时代中受益吗？
Do you think Amazon will benefit from that great sort of robotics age that you're envisioning?
当然会，斯科特。
100%, Scott.
我的意思是，亚马逊，你对这家公司可能比我了解得多得多，但归根结底，他们是一家物流公司，对吧？
I mean, Amazon, you probably know the company way more than me, but they're a logistics company, right?
他们到处都有仓库，还有大量商家。
They are warehouses everywhere, they have merchants.
为什么亚马逊不能参与未来的住宅建设呢？
Why won't Amazon be part of, like, future home construction?
就像西尔斯百货一样，他们完全有能力运送房屋，再用机器人当木工和安装工，把一切组装起来。
Because, you know, just like Sears Roebuck, they they could probably deliver homes, and then their robots could be the carpenters and agents putting it all together.
这样一来，潜在市场规模一下子就翻倍了，因为涵盖了整个住宅和办公市场。
All of a sudden, TAM is, you know, doubled because it's the entire residential and office market.
你明白吧？
You know?
我的意思是，作为一家物流公司，所有需要物流服务的领域都是他们的潜在市场。
I I mean, I think as a logistics company, that means anything that requires logistics is really their addressable market.
所以，没错，我觉得这确实很有道理。
So, yeah, I think, yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense.
我们来聊聊你对今年下半年的一些预测吧。
Just going to some of your predictions for the second half of this year.
年初的时候，你设定了一个目标点位。
So at the beginning of the year, you set a price target.
你刚上节目时，标普500的目标是7700点。
When you came on the show at beginning of the year, the price target of the S and P was 7,700.
现在看来我们快能达到这个目标了，但你在年中报告里调整了预期。
We are tracking to hit that, but you changed that in your half time report, half year report.
你现在认为，到年底标普500会冲上8000点。
You now see the S and P hitting 8,000 by the end of the year.
不过你加了个前提，我觉得挺有意思——你认为今年秋天市场会经历一波类似熊市的回调，然后迅速反弹。
But with this caveat, which I find interesting that you think that the S and P in the fall, that the markets are gonna hit something that resembles a bear market and then come ripping back up.
你能说说为什么你觉得这些都会发生吗？
If you could just lay out why you think that's all gonna happen.
是的。
Yeah.
我们确实把目标上调到了8000点，这相当于基于2027年每股400美元的盈利，再乘以20倍的市盈率得出的数字。
We did raise our target to 8,000, which is basically $400 in 2027 earnings, and then we trade it 20 times that multiple, that would be 8,000.
但从六月到十二月，市场要面对的考验会一个接一个到来。
But June to December, I think a lot of tests the market has to pass are going to be coming.
最明显的一个是，美联储将迎来一位新主席。
The first most obvious is we have a new Fed chair.
凯文·沃什的目标相当宏大。
And Kevin Warsh has some ambitious goals.
他打算彻底重新设计美联储的运作方式，还设立了五个专项小组。
You know, he wants to essentially reconfigure how the fed functions, and he has five task forces.
其中一个任务就是重新定义通货膨胀。
One of those is redefining inflation.
第二个是分析他们的沟通方式。
You know, the second is analyzing communications.
第三个是他们如何收集数据，还有其他一些方面。
The third is, you know, how they collect data and there's others.
但对我来说，这些都是市场需要适应的新挑战，因为他们早已习惯了固定的新闻发布会节奏。
But to me, that is all new challenges for the market to understand, because they are very used to a cadence of press conferences.
不过在鲍威尔之前，FOMC利率决议后开新闻发布会并不是常态。
Prior to Powell, though, you know, a press conference after FOMC rate decision was not the norm.
听上去凯文·沃什可能只在有重要信息时才会开发布会。
And it sounds like Kevin Worsch might only do it when he has something to say.
他也不打算再提供前瞻性指引了。
He also doesn't want to provide forward guidance any longer.
所以市场得找别的东西来替代前瞻性指引。
So markets have to find a proxy for forward guidance.
说不定最终会转向预测市场。
You know, it may end up being prediction markets.
他可能还想重新定义通胀，但这就有点难了，毕竟他自己也想先把通胀压到百分之二，可这百分之二到底是按哪个指标算呢？
And then he may wanna redefine inflation, but that's gonna be tough when he himself wants to keep inflation at, you know, to get to two percent first, but then 2% inflation on what measurement?
第二个挑战是所有IPO锁定期资金的释放。
You know, the second challenge is gonna be the unlocking of all the IPO liquidity.
比如SpaceX，真正开始是在秋天。
So for SpaceX, that really starts in the fall.
第三，伊朗的战争导致石油产品出现累积且不断扩大的缺口，因为霍尔木兹海峡还没恢复正常。
The third is this war with Iran is creating a cumulative and growing deficit with petroleum products because the Strait Of Hormuz isn't back to normal.
尽管美国汽油供应充足，但并不意味着润滑剂和其他石油产品在其他地方也充足。
And even though gasoline is plentiful in America, it doesn't mean, like, lubricants and other petroleum are plentiful everywhere else.
我是说，字面意思上，石油才是让整个机器运转起来的润滑油。
And, I mean, it's the I mean, I'm being literal, but, like, it's oil that greases the machine.
对吧？
Right?
你的意思是，哪里会不会出问题？
Like, you know, is there gonna be problems somewhere?
这个嘛，我也说不准。
Like, I don't know.
这事儿不确定性太高了。
That's think it's highly uncertain.
第四点是，保证金债务通常预示着未来六个月内的市场调整。
And the fourth is the margin debt is usually associated with some sort of correction in the next six months.
所以我觉得，在中期选举前，可能会冒出第五个风险，或者我们之前说过的那种脆弱性，进一步推动市场回落。
So I think between now and midterms, there might be a fifth risk that emerges, you know, or the fragility that we talked about that helps drive that drawdown.
你知道的，一旦调整开始，情况往往会变得非常糟糕。
And, you know, as you know, corrections, once they start, they can be very, very ugly.
所以我也真说不好。
So I don't really know.
我也不觉得现在就是顶部。
And I wouldn't wanna call it top either.
我们一直建议客户保持投资，而且我们依然持乐观态度，因为现在市场上的怀疑情绪已经足够多了。
So we you know, we've been advising our clients to stay invested, and we're still constructive because I think there's enough skepticism now.
但即使我们从那个峰值回落，我认为跌幅也会非常大。
But even from that whatever level we peak at, I think it's a it's a big drawdown.
你为什么觉得市场会这么快反弹回来？
Why do you believe that it'll come ripping back so quickly?
你提到的那些关键指标，正是我一直在想的问题。
Because all of the all of the tests that you highlighted, that's what I my mind's on.
这几乎看起来是不可避免的，但当然，我们不该这样看待市场和投资。
And it it almost seems inevitable, But, of course, that's never the way to think about markets or investing.
但这些指标确实非常重要。
But those tests seem really important.
如果我们看到这次回调，你为什么认为反弹会这么快？
Why do you think we'll see such a quick comeback from that correction if we see it?
每当美国市场出现严重回调时，我们的观点一直都是，这会是V型反弹，你知道的。
Whenever there has been a severe correction in The US market, you know, our stance has been that these would be V shaped recoveries, you know?
但这种看法一直遭到很多质疑。
And it's always been met with a lot of skepticism.
今年早些时候，我们就说过，战争带来的回调会是V型反弹。
Even earlier this year, you know, we had said that the war, the pullback associated with the war would be a v shaped recovery.
你确实这么说过。
You did say that.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
很多人不信，因为他们会提到石油和各种不确定性，但我现在明白，市场会提前消化负面冲击。
And many don't believe it because they would point to oil and all these uncertainties, but I think what I've realized is markets front load negative shocks.
所以我觉得，我们可能会经历一次非常剧烈的调整。
So that's why I think we we could have a very severe correction.
但只要经济没崩溃——也就是说，没有进入负向循环，经济状况和收益率曲线会告诉我们，还有企业信贷利差也会给出信号。
But unless the economy is breaking, so we actually have a negative cycle, I I think that and the yield curve will tell us, and spreads will tell us, corporate credit spreads.
只要经济没出大问题，任何调整都将是V型的。
But as long as the economy isn't breaking, whatever correction we have will be v shaped.
我知道我说的听起来有点机械，但当然，这最终会经受住考验，不过这仍然是我目前的基本判断。
And I know I'm saying something that sounds mechanical, but and, of course, you know, it'll be put to the test, but that would still be my default belief.
当我们看这些复苏持续时间有多短时，似乎市场正变得越来越像V形反弹。
And it seems as though the market has been getting more and more v shaped when we look at just how short these recoveries have been.
战争就是一个完美的例子。
The war was a perfect example.
你年初确实说过，预计会先经历一波熊市式的调整，然后迅速反转。
And you you did say at the beginning of the year, you thought that we would see a bear market like correction and then a whipsaw back.
我们确实看到了这样的走势，只不过它的形式有点意外——竟然是因为要对伊朗开战。
That is what we saw, but it just came in the form of a strange thing, was going to war with Iran.
你今年最看好的几个板块是能源、小盘股、金融、工业，这些我都同意，你还加上了科技板块。
Looking at your favorite sectors right now for the year, you have energy, small caps, financials, industrials, agreed on all of those, and then also technology.
你还特别提到了七巨头和IGV指数，也就是那些被‘SaaS末日’和‘SaaS末日2.0’重创的软件股。
And you point out the Mag seven and the IGV, I e software stocks, stocks that got pummeled by the SaaSpocalypse and then SaaSpocalypse two.
我也认同你的看法，但你为什么还看好七巨头和IGV呢？
I'm also with you on that, but why are you long mag seven and IGV?
我认为它们都是人工智能的下游受益者。
I believe they're both downstream beneficiaries of AI.
就像斯科特提到的，亚马逊是人工智能的巨大受益者，我觉得金融服务行业也是如此。
In the same way that Scott mentioned that Amazon's a huge beneficiary of AI, and I think the financial services industry is a huge beneficiary of AI.
所以现在投资者买的是那些有明显增长的瓶颈环节。
So I think, you know, today people, investors are buying bottlenecks because there's visible growth there.
但每个月过去，人工智能下游的公司和软件都会积累更多好处。
But every month that passes, there's a compounding benefit taking place to people who are downstream of AI, because that's companies and software.
这些软件公司并不是铁板一块。
And, you know, these software companies, they're not monolithic.
它们有董事会、首席执行官，有销售和工程师，大家都在亲身经历我们看到的这些变化。
They have boards and CEOs, and they have salespeople and engineers, and they're all witnessing what we're witnessing.
它们从人工智能中获益的方式有很多。
And there's many ways that they can benefit from AI.
对我们来说，正是这些股票的估值下调，才让它们的风险收益比变得非常有吸引力。
So to us, it's the derating that's taken place in all of those stocks that tells us the risk reward is is really attractive.
我们马上回来。
We'll be right back.
想了解更多市场内容，请前往 profgmarkets.com 订阅我们的通讯。
And for even more Markets content, sign up for our newsletter at profgmarkets.com.
哈里斯会再次竞选总统吗？
Is Kamala Harris running for president again?
听我说。
Listen.
有可能。
I might.
有可能。
I might.
我在考虑这件事。
I'm thinking about it.
但有人希望她参选吗？
But does anybody want that?
是的
Yeah.
真的吗？
Yeah?
是的
Yeah.
我觉得是的
I think so.
我觉得没什么不可以的
Well, I don't see why not.
当然
Absolutely.
我觉得卡玛拉·哈里斯应该再次竞选总统
I think Kamala Harris should run for president again.
我不认为美国会永远没有女性总统
I don't think there'll never be a woman president in The United States.
等等。
Now wait.
等等，等等。
Wait, wait.
你不能就这么撂下这句话走人。
You can't just walk away on that.
跟我们说说为什么。
Tell us why.
我知道现在谈2028年还太早，但随着我们为后特朗普时代做准备，民主党未来的发展方向确实是个大问题。
I know it's still early to talk about 2028, but as we build to our post Trump future, it seems to be a big question about the Democratic party.
卡玛拉·哈里斯在所有总统民调中都遥遥领先。
Kamala Harris leads all of the presidential polling.
那这是否意味着，2024年领衔出战的人，也会在2028年再次带领民主党？
So does this mean that the person who led the ticket in 2024 is going to lead the party again in 2028?
这场竞选应该叫‘买买买’。
The campaign needs to be called Buy Buy Buy.
这只是一个声誉受损的品牌。
It's just a tainted brand.
你觉得在捐赠者群体中，有人还愿意支持哈里斯重返政坛吗？
Do you think from a donor community largely that there's any appetite for a Harris return?
我不这么认为。
I don't.
我是埃斯特布·赫廷格，欢迎收听《美国真相》。
I'm Esteb Hirting, and this is America Actually.
每周六请在YouTube或你听播客的平台收听我们的节目。
Catch us every Saturday on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.
我们继续回到《G教授市场》。
We're back with Prof G Markets.
所以，汤姆，加密货币已经从高点回落了。
So, Tom, crypto is well off its highs.
比特币跌了，已经腰斩了。
Bitcoin's down, has been cut in half.
以太坊的价值已经跌去了三分之二。
Ethereum's lost about two thirds of its value.
你们公司BitMine，作为一家数字资产储备机构，昨天购入了超过四千万美元的以太坊。
Your firm BitMine, a digital asset treasury, yesterday bought over 40,000,000 of Ethereum.
你们为什么这么看好？
Why are you bullish?
我们从今年年初，其实过去十年一直看多加密货币，是因为加密货币和区块链真正解决了一个核心问题：如何在两个互不信任的主体之间实现可信交易。
The reason we were bullish on crypto at the start of this year and and really for the last ten years is that cryptocurrencies and blockchains do solve an important problem, which is how do you do trusted transactions between two untrusted parties?
这种结算和最终性已经被证明了，因为比特币和以太坊从诞生至今，从未出现过任何一笔欺诈性记录。
And that type of settlement and finality has been proven because, you know, Bitcoin and Ethereum in their entire history has never recorded a fraudulent entry.
正因如此，华尔街才在大力布局代币化资产和稳定币支付网络，我相信随着时间推移，区块链最终会取代大量传统金融基础设施。
And that is why, like, Wall Street is building tokenized assets and building stablecoin rails, and I think over time, I think using blockchain actually as a replacement for a lot of the legacy financial rails.
比如今天在伦敦有一场高盛举办的欧洲会议，参会人数比去年几乎翻了三倍。
For instance, there's a Goldman Sachs conference in Europe, in London today, and the number of attendees is actually almost tripled from a year ago.
同样，我对加密货币持乐观态度，是因为我觉得随着智能代理和人工智能越来越富裕，我们已经开始看到代理和机器人在为我们创造财富，未来可能迎来一个转折点——代理所拥有的财富会超过人类本身。
Similarly, I'm bullish on crypto because I think as agents and AI become a lot wealthier, and we're starting to see, you know, agents create wealth for us and robots create wealth for us, to us, the opportunity is that we may be reaching a point where agents actually own more wealth than we do.
你知道吧。
You know?
我想把这叫做‘财富的诡异谷’。
And I'm gonna call that the, quote, uncanny valley of wealth.
当我们的代理所赚的钱比我们还多的时候，我们可能会开始怀疑，到底是谁为谁工作。
That there may be a point in time where if our delegated agents make more money than us, we're gonna wonder if we work for them or they work for us.
我认为，这正是加密货币和许多科技人士开始意识到，加密货币其实是人类掌控代理未来角色的一种方式。
And I think that is the reason why crypto and and a lot of the technologists are starting to realize that crypto is really one of the ways for humans to control the future role of agents.
所以我觉得这两个大趋势依然存在，但今年加密货币的价格简直一塌糊涂。
So I think those two megatrends are still in place, but crypto prices have been absolutely terrible this year.
我觉得部分原因在于宏观环境。
I think part of it is macro.
货币政策并不宽松。
You know, the monetary policy is not dovish.
六个月前看起来还像是宽松的。
It looked dovish six months ago.
对吧？
Right?
市场原本期待降息两次，现在却预期加息两次。
Market was looking for two cuts, now it's two hikes.
这构成了阻力。
That's a headwind.
《清晰法案》原本旨在确立联邦层面的加密货币监管统一标准，让商品期货交易委员会全面接管这个行业，但至今仍卡在国会流程里。
The Clarity Act, which was supposed to help provide and create federal preemption of cryptocurrency rules and let the CFTC essentially have purview over that industry, you know, that's still stuck in the Congress processes.
至于人工智能，它表现得太好了，不仅抢走了关注，还吸走了大量投资资金。
And AI, of course, has done so well that it's think it's not only taken away attention, but it's actually taken away investor capital.
在我看来，这些是阻力，但还不至于构成根本性的替代。
So I think those are, to me, headwinds, but they're not creating what I call intermodal replacements.
我认为区块链仍将是金融服务行业未来的核心，甚至是我们管理人工智能的关键。
I think blockchain is still gonna be central to the future of the financial services industry and actually to how we manage AI.
有两家公司，规模巨大、利润丰厚，今年到目前为止却惨遭重创。
Two companies that have are huge companies, extremely profitable, got absolutely murdered so far this year.
我觉得这个评价挺中肯的。
I think that is a fair characterization.
微软跌了24%，市盈率还是22年水平；Meta跌了15%，市盈率停留在20年水平。
Microsoft down 24%, price to earnings of '22, and Meta down 15%, price to earnings of '20.
你对这两家公司怎么看？
What do you think of those companies?
我非常确信，这两家公司未来会比市场现在认为的要聪明得多。
I'm very confident both are going to play this play the future way smarter than the market believes at the moment.
它们都有很长的历史，证明自己能准确把握重大的战略转型。
They have they both have a long history of proving that they understand major existential pivots that are needed.
现在大家很容易说，Meta的问题在于砸太多钱搞超大规模扩张，现金流也不像以前那么充裕了。
And so, you know, today, it's kinda easy to say, oh, well, know, Meta's got an issue because they're spending so much on hyperscaling, and they you know, they're no longer free cash, Joy.
但这家公司人才济济，扎克伯格也一次次证明了自己做战略调整的能力。
But, you know, that is an incredibly talented organization, and, you know, Mark Zuckerberg has proven to make very, very smart pivot.
所以我对它们能顺利度过这个转型期很有信心，尽管眼下财务数据看起来像是在过渡阶段。
So I have a lot of confidence that they are gonna navigate this very well, even though, you know, their financials look like they're in potential transition.
微软也是同样的情况。
And similarly, Microsoft.
我的意思是，微软更是如此，他们很早就做了几项非常明智的AI投资，看看他们现在在云计算领域有多强大。
I mean, Microsoft even, I mean, just to to sort of demonstrate their, I think, their foresight, you know, they are they've made some very smart investments in AI, and look at how they've become so big in cloud.
在我看来，他们有一套很准的预测系统，我觉得这两家公司在未来几年都能很好地应对这个转折。
So to me, I think that they have a dashboard that they they they do have a pretty decent crystal ball, and so I I'd be confident that both companies navigate this really well in next couple years.
我同意你的看法。
I'm with you on that.
今年表现最突出的股票，基本上都是半导体板块。
Looking at the the stocks that have crushed this year, it's basically like semis.
托尔斯坦对阿波罗的分析显示，半导体股票现在占标普500指数的19%。
And there's some interesting data from Torsten's lock at Apollo, which is that semiconductor stocks now account for 19% of the S and P.
也就是说，整个市场里五分之一都是半导体公司。
So it's literally a fifth of the entire market.
2025年的时候，这个比例还不到10%。
It was below 10% in 2025.
我很好奇，你觉得半导体这个故事接下来会怎么发展？因为现在真正推动市场的就是它。
I'd just be curious to hear how you think this semiconductor story is gonna play out because that that's really what's driving the market.
我们甚至可以看看小盘股，比如罗素2000指数。
We could we could even look at, like, the small caps, the Russell 2,000.
这些股票的上涨，很大程度上来自一些更细分的AI相关公司。
Again, a lot of that growth is coming from these sort of, like, more niche AI plays.
并不是来自你通常想到的小盘股里那些价值型股票。
It's not coming from the more sort of value stocks that you might think about when you think of small caps.
现在整个市场基本上就是半导体在撑着。
It's it's really like it's it's the the whole market is semis at this point.
你觉得这波行情接下来会怎么走？
How do you think that's gonna play out?
你觉得还有上涨空间吗？
Do think there's room to run there?
为什么到现在为止，涨得这么猛？
And why has it been such a such a violent swing to the upside so far?
半导体行业历来是个周期性很强的板块，过去大家主要看账单比来交易。
You know, semis, you know, historically been a a very cyclical group, and, you know, and you you traded them on on book to bill ratio.
但最近几个周期，这种情况已经没那么明显了。
But over the last couple of cycles, you know, that's become less the story.
你刚才问的问题其实很关键——这到底是个长期周期，还是有什么根本性的变化？
And, you know, the the very question you're asking is, you know, is this a long cycle, or has something changed, you know?
对，就是这样。
Yes, exactly.
就眼下来看，不管是2026年还是2027年，这些都不太重要，因为短期的前景非常清晰。
And for the moment, like for 2026, and maybe even 2027, neither will actually matter, because in the near term, the visibility is very good.
我猜测，半导体可能正进入一个全新的周期，一个全新的故事。
I might guess that semiconductors are in a new cycle, a new story.
原因很简单：回顾过去五十年，每次半导体周期都没真正改变过总可触达市场。
Only because, like, if we look at the last fifty years, every semi cycle didn't really have a change in the TAM.
买家还是那些人，资本投入增加，再加上牛鞭效应，波及了从设备到芯片的整个链条。
You know, it was the same set of buyers, and there might have been capital raised, and you had the bullwhip effect affecting everything from semi cap equipment to the semis.
但这次我们看到的是机器人，它们对半导体的需求量远超iPhone。
But this time, we're looking at, you know, robots, which are very semiconductor intensive versus an iPhone.
我的意思是，机器人需要的半导体数量，具体数字我不清楚。
You know, like, the amount of semiconductor that you need to put into a robot is what I mean, I don't know the number.
我猜，会不会是iPhone的五十倍之多？
I'm gonna guess, is it 50 times versus what you need in an iPhone?
所以，每部署一台新的自动驾驶机器人——作为节省人力成本的工具——都会消耗大量半导体。
So all of a sudden, every new autonomous robot that you deploy, which is gonna save you money as a labor tool, is very semi intensive.
当然，如果半导体要用在太空环境中，你知道，它们得能承受那种极端条件吧？
And then of course, there's gonna need to be if there's semiconductors and space, know, I mean, conditions do they have to survive?
而且这些需求会非常独特。
And they're gonna be quite unique.
所以我觉得，这可能是半导体行业的一个全新故事。
And so I I think there's a chance that it is a it's a new story for semis.
对。
Yeah.
这确实像你说的那样，到底是新一轮大周期，还是真的有什么变了？
It does seem like that's exactly as you put it, is this a big cycle or has something changed?
对。
Yeah.
我觉得两种可能性都挺合理的，但真不好判断。
I I think it's I think both are pretty reasonable outcomes, and it's it's a really tough one.
我们快收尾了，你刚才提到的一些风险，今年你们自己也经历了重大考验。
Just as we start to wrap up here, some of the stuff that you mentioned in terms of risks, You had your your big tests this year.
美联储也面临考验。
The Fed gets tested.
所有IPO，比如SpaceX，还有石油产品短缺这些问题都集中爆发了。
They unlock all all of the IPOs like SpaceX, especially the the petroleum product shortages.
另一个最近我们注意到的新风险是AI的成本问题，不只是基础模型，企业自己用起来也贵得吓人。
One other new risk that's kind of been on our radar is this issue of how expensive AI is, not necessarily just for the the foundation models, but for enterprises themselves.
现在不少公司都在转向更便宜的开源中文AI模型，因为负担不起Claude或者OpenAI的产品。
And a lot of these companies are now shifting to these cheaper open weight, open source Chinese AI models because they can't afford Claude and they can't afford, OpenAI's products, etcetera.
如果突然间大家都转用中国模型，这对美国公司来说可能真是个大问题。
That seems like it could be a real issue for American companies if suddenly everyone just starts deciding to switch over to Chinese models.
你觉得这是个风险吗？你怎么看这种转变？
Do you view that as a risk, and how do you think about that shift?
AI成本高，再加上资本似乎很充裕，这正在催生竞争。
The high cost of AI and the apparent, you know, abundance of capital is creating competition.
这种竞争是跨模式的，因为有些人开发开源模型，甚至不收费，而是通过其他方式盈利。
And, you know, competition is intermodal because, you know, there may be people who create open sourced models that also don't even charge anything, but they try to monetize it somewhere else.
我认为每个未来的使用者都得权衡这一点，毕竟中国的模型不可能免费。
And I think that that's the trade off every future user has, because of course no model from China is gonna be free.
它们可能功能很强，但风险在于，这些模型背后的商业模式是不是在收割租金？
I mean, it might have great capabilities, but the risk is, you know, what is the quote rent seeking business model of that other model?
如果只是想推广中国AI，那我觉得问题不大。
And if it is deployment and they just want China AI to to spread, then I think things are fine.
但如果涉及监控或控制，那就给企业带来不小的风险了。
But if there's a surveillance element or, you know, a capture, then and that poses, of course, a lot of risk to businesses.
你知道，很多早期使用这些AI模型的人犯了一个大错，就是把太多数据分享出去了。
Because as you know, that's that was really an early mistake for a lot of users of of these AI models was was sharing too much data.
所以我觉得这确实是个值得关注的风险，因为它正在强烈推动人们去寻找更便宜的替代方案。
So I I think it's, you know, I think it is a risk that's worth watching because, you know, it it's creating enormous incentives to find intermodal replacements, you know, for expensive models.
今年迄今，新兴市场上涨了25%，是标普涨幅的两倍多，而去年它们已经涨了34%。
Emerging markets up 25% year to date, more than double the S and P's gain, and that's after increasing 34% last year.
我们的一大观点是，过去二十年来首次，资金开始回流新兴市场，出现了明显的风格切换。
One of our big themes was we saw a rotation out of or flows reversing for the first time in the better part of two decades back to emerging markets.
你怎么看美国市场和新兴市场的对比？
Your thoughts on The US versus emerging markets?
我认同新兴市场表现更强的逻辑。
I can believe the emerging markets outperformance thesis.
但我个人只关注美国市场。
I actually only focus on The US.
在我看来，AI是一整套全新的基础设施建设，必然会催生一批配套的基础设施服务商。
But to me, AI is a whole new infrastructure build, and there's gonna be infrastructure partners to this process.
韩国已经证明了这一点。
Korea has proven to be one.
在我看来，每一步AI的发展，韩国都能跟上节奏。
So to me, for every advancement in the AI story, Korea has a beta to that.
不只是韩国，还有台湾，我相信很多新兴市场也都一样。
And it's not just gonna be Korea, it's Taiwan, and I'm sure a lot of emerging markets.
从结构上看，有些国家表现更优是合理的，因为它们对这场结构性变革的敏感度更高，经济随之表现更好，股市自然也会更强。
So to me, structurally, it makes sense that some countries should outperform because they might have higher beta to this structural story, and therefore their economies will outperform, and therefore stocks.
汤姆，我们一直很欢迎你，也很感谢你带来更乐观的视角，虽然你同时也认为今年下半年会出现回调，但会是V型反弹，很快就能恢复。
Tom, we always love having you, and we appreciate getting your more bullish perspective, although with the caveat that you do believe that we'll see a correction in the second half of the year, but that it'll be v shaped and we'll come right back.
这更多是关于加密货币方面的事，今年加密货币确实遭受重创，比特币和以太坊都跌得很惨。
This is more on the crypto side of things, Obviously, crypto has gotten pummeled this year, Bitcoin and Ethereum.
但我知道你对以太坊很看好，对股市也同样乐观。
But you I know that you're you're bullish, specifically on Ethereum, and you're bullish on the stock market too.
我想知道，得发生什么情况，才会让你改变主意，觉得其实并不行？
I'd I'd be curious to know what would change your mind to to basically say, actually, no.
价格在下跌。
The price is going down.
我的意思是，如果加密市场持续低迷，比如到了明年六月，比特币还徘徊在四万到五万美元之间，那会怎样？
I mean, what what would it take if we saw continued pain in the crypto markets, as an example, if we get to, say, June of next year and Bitcoin is hovering around, I don't know, 40 or 50.
这纯属假设，我也不确定这种推测有多大意义。
I mean, it was all hypothetical, so I'm not even sure how much value it has.
但这种情况会改变你的看法吗？或者说，到底什么才会让你改变主意？
But would that change your mind on things, or what what what would?
你知道，加密货币波动性特别大。
You know, crypto is hyper is hyper volatile.
比特币从十二万美元跌到五万八，以太坊跟着比特币跌，从五千美元掉到一千六，这种跌幅其实还在加密市场牛熊周期的历史正常范围内。
So Bitcoins fall from, you know, a 120,000 to 58,000, and Ethereum, which is, you know, beta to Bitcoin falling from 5,000 to 1,600, that fall still within the historical parameters of, like, the crypto bull and bear market cycles.
所以价格还没低到能说明有什么根本性问题。
So price hasn't moved to a level that would say anything's broken.
但真正出问题的是，今年股市表现不错，加密货币却跌得惨不忍睹。
But what has been broken is the fact that stocks have done well this year and crypto's done badly.
我觉得这跟我和斯科特之前聊过的那些宏观因素有关，比如美联储态度变得更鹰派，人工智能吸走了大量资本，还有《清晰法案》，以及预期中的豁免条款暂时还没落地。
And I think part of it is some of the macro things that Scott and I discussed, like the Fed becoming a little more hawkish and AI really taking away some capital, and the Clarity Act, and that the positive exemption that would come with it not happening just yet.
但这些都没能动摇加密货币的根本逻辑——作为‘捕鼠器’，区块链依然是在无需信任的前提下传输和存储价值、记录交易的最佳方式。
But none of those really break the crypto story because as a, you know, as a, quote, mousetrap, blockchain is still the best way to to still transmit and store value and record transactions without trust.
所以我觉得华尔街仍在积极构建，而且正在快速地基于区块链开发应用。
And that's why I think Wall Street is still gonna build and is rapidly building on blockchains.
只是这些变化还没渗透到我们日常生活的层面而已。
You know, it's just not happening to our everyday lives just yet.
同样地，我也觉得很多AI工程师正在尝试用区块链来管理未来的智能代理，保护人类的利益——因为当AI变得越来越富有时，人类可能会被排除在经济循环之外。
And for the same reason why I think a lot of the AI engineers are tinkering with using blockchain to manage future agents to protect us because as AI becomes quite wealthy, you know, humans might be taken out of that economic loop.
你明白吧？
You know?
所以在我看来，比特币一定会完全反弹回来。
So I think that's why, to me, Bitcoin will make a full recovery.
我相信到今年年底，比特币会突破十万美元，以太坊也会重回五千美元以上。
You know, I I I believe you're gonna see Bitcoin over a 100,000 by the end of the year and Ethereum, you know, back to over 5,000.
所以，我觉得投资者的耐心确实受到了考验，因为比特币已经连续三个季度下跌了，但历史上从未有过连续四个季度下跌的情况。
So, you know, I think investors' patience is clearly tested because we've I think Bitcoin's been down three quarters in a row, But I think it's never been down four quarters in a row.
所以这是一个考验，如果从六月到九月价格没有反弹，那你说得对。
So this would be a test that if they don't bounce from June to September, then you're right.
可能真的出问题了。
Maybe something's broken.
有没有一个具体的价格点位，到了那个位置你就会说，是的？
Is there a price point at which you would say, yes.
确实已经崩了。
It is broken.
整个故事都站不住脚了，以后也不管用了？
The story is broken, and it won't work anymore?
比如，你有没有想过这种情况？
Like, do do you ever think about think about that?
对于比特币来说，
For Bitcoin,
看待这个问题的角度，应该是它的生产成本。
the way to look at it is its production cost.
因为挖矿是有成本的，要找到
Because there is a cost of mining and to to find the
下一个区块。
next block.
我觉得目前比特币的价格比生产成本低了大约5%。
And I think Bitcoin is, like, 5% below production cost right now.
如果比特币跌到生产成本的一半以下，那就意味着整个网络撑不住了。
If Bitcoin falls below 50% of production cost, it literally said it means you just take down the network.
以现在的价格，根本没法维持比特币网络的运行。
It you can't support managing the Bitcoin network with its current price.
对我来说，这就好比摩根大通的股价跌到了账面价值的一半。
I mean, that to me, you know, that that would be the equivalent of, like, JPMorgan trading at half a book value.
对。
Yeah.
好吧。
So okay.
这个背景信息很有帮助。
That's that's helpful context.
最后一个问题。
Final question.
当你思考自己的投资理念时，你天性就是看多的。
When you think about your investment philosophy, you you're kind of bullish by nature.
你会去想未来可能发生什么，哪些事情可能会朝好的方向变化，机器人和智能代理能做些什么。
Like, you think about what what could happen in the future, how things could change in the right ways, what robots could do, what agents could do.
我觉得这种思维方式对投资来说非常好。
And it's and it's a great I think it's a great way to think about investing.
我最后一个问题，你是怎么一直保持这么乐观的？
My final question, like, how do you stay so bullish?
目前推动你观点的投资理念是什么？
What is your investment philosophy that drives your views at this point?
我最早在华尔街工作的时候就明白了一件事，毕竟我已经做了三十五年的研究分析师，我觉得美国的创新能力确实与众不同。
One of the things that I learned from my earliest days on Wall Street, because this is my thirty thirty fifth year as a research analyst, is that I think that there is something unique about US innovation.
美国那种激励创新的机制，加上相对有利的监管环境，还有企业持续创新的能力——这些正是我保持乐观的原因。
You know, I think that The US structure of creating incentives for innovation, and I think somewhat positive regulatory backdrop and the ability for companies to innovate, and constantly innovate, and I think companies continue to innovate, is the reason I've been optimistic.
新冠疫情就是一个很好的例子。
I think COVID was a really good example of that.
当时全世界都停摆了，各地的公司收入都暴跌。
You know, the whole world shut down, and around the world, many companies suddenly saw a collapse in earnings.
但在美国，通过一系列措施，包括政府支出，标普500的盈利反而增长了。
But in The US, through a variety of measures, including government spending, S and P earnings actually grew.
当然，这也离不开很多优秀公司做出了明智的决策。
But it was a lot of good companies making good decisions too.
所以只要美国还保持着这种活力和进取精神，我就依然看好未来。
So I think as long as that vitality and dynamism exists in America, then I think I can stay constructive.
你说得对。
But you're right.
商业周期总会结束，创新也有可能会停止。
A business cycle will end, and of course, innovation could end.
如果美国陷入所谓的荷兰病，不再追求创新，那其他国家就会取而代之。
You know, if America becomes has what we call Dutch disease and no longer seeks to innovate, then another country will take the lead.
汤姆·李是基金策略全球顾问公司的联合创始人、管理合伙人兼研究主管，这是一家领先的独立研究机构。
Tom Lee is the cofounder, managing partner, and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, a leading independent research firm.
他拥有二十五年以上的股票研究经验，自1998年以来每年都入选机构投资者评选的顶级分析师。
He has more than twenty five years of experience in equity research and has been top ranked by institutional investor every year since 1998.
在联合创立基金策略公司之前，他曾在2007年至2014年担任摩根大通的首席股票策略师。
Prior to cofounding Fundstrat, he served as JPMorgan's chief equity strategist from 2007 to 2014.
汤姆，今天这场对话太棒了。
Tom, this was awesome.
非常感谢你抽出时间。
We really appreciate your time.
谢谢，汤姆。
Thanks, Tom.
谢谢。
Thank you.
本集由克莱尔·米勒和艾莉森·韦斯制作，本杰明·斯宾塞负责技术制作。
This episode was produced by Claire Miller and Alison Weiss and engineered by Benjamin Spencer.
我们的视频剪辑由豪尔赫·卡蒂负责。
Our video editor is Jorge Carty.
我们的研究团队包括丹·沙隆、伊莎贝拉·金塞尔、克里斯汀·奥多诺霍和米亚·西尔维里奥。
Our research team is Dan Shalon, Isabella Kinsel, Kristen O'Donohue, and Mia Silverio.
杰克·麦克弗森担任我们的社交媒体制作人。
Jake McPherson is our social producer.
德鲁·伯罗斯是我们的技术总监，凯瑟琳·迪伦是我们的执行制片人。
Drew Burrows is our technical director, and Catherine Dillon is our executive producer.
感谢收听来自Prof G Media的《Prof Markets》。
Thank you for listening to Prof Markets from Prof G Media.
如果你喜欢本期内容，欢迎关注我们，周一再来听我们带来全新的市场解读。
If you liked what you heard, give us a follow and join us for a fresh take on markets on Monday.
关于 Bayt 播客
Bayt 提供中文+原文双语音频和字幕，帮助你打破语言障碍，轻松听懂全球优质播客。