特朗普的经济 playbook 正在失败

这指向了一个观点，即经济的实际表现与人们对经济的感受之间存在分歧。

And it it it points to this idea of, like, there's a divergence between the way that the economy is actually doing versus the way that people feel about the economy.

这是一个有趣且合理的观点。

And that is an interesting and fair point.

但问题在于，当人们开始对选民和消费者说：你们的要求太高了。

But where it gets into trouble, I think, is when people starts to say to to voters and to consumers, like, you you just have high standards.

你们觉得自己的生活很糟，但实际上生活很好。

Like, you think that your life is bad, but your life is actually good.

相信我。

Trust me.

我看着这些数据，可以告诉你，我会指着你，告诉你：你的生活其实很好。

I'm looking at this data here, and I can tell you, and I'm gonna wag my finger at you and tell you, your life is actually good.

在现实世界中，我的意思是，如果我们讨论的是政治领域——而我们确实是在讨论这个——这种说法是行不通的。

And in the world I mean, if we're talking about the world of politics, which we are here, that doesn't work.

你不能只是告诉别人他们的生活其实很棒，然后指着GDP增长图表，再指着如今智能手机的价格与三十年前的价格对比，说：看，你的生活其实很好。

Like, you can't just tell someone that their life is actually great and then point it at at a GDP growth chart and then point at, you know, the the price of a smartphone today versus the price of a smartphone thirty years ago and say, see, your life is good actually.

因为这并没有充分认可个人自身，他们很可能正在全面评估自己生活中的各种因素，并自己做出判断。

Because that's not giving nearly enough credit to the person themselves who's probably evaluating all the things in their life, and they're making the call themselves.

实际上，这对我来说并不奏效。

Actually, this isn't working out for me.

这对我来说行不通。

This doesn't work for me.

而且你知道，你可以说，是的，但现在你可以点优食，而三十年前你做不到。

And and, you know, you can make the argument, yeah, but you can order, Uber Eats, and you couldn't do that thirty years ago.

问题是，这真的从根本上改变了人们对生活的感受吗？

It's like, well, is that really changing fundamentally the way people feel about their lives?

他们能点餐，食物还能送到家门口，价格还比十年前便宜了一点？

The fact that they can order food and it gets delivered to their door at a slightly cheaper price than ten years ago?

还是我们需要思考更根本的东西，比如像你说的，能够拥有住房、组建家庭的能力？

Or do we need to think about the more fundamental things, the ability, as you say, to be able to get your hands on a home and build a family?

那种真正能够建立事业，从而积累资产并以此开启人生的想法。

The idea that you could really build up a career that can build an actual asset base from which you can then launch your life.

这些才是真正重要的事情。

Like, these are the things that that actually matter.

所以我认为，当政府说，是的，但看看GDP增长时，这种说法根本行不通，这正是我的观点。

So I think it gets it's it's not gonna work, essentially, is my point, when the administration says, yeah, but look at GDP growth.

看看股市。

Look at the stock market.

当人们明确告诉你‘不是这样’时，这些数据根本无法让人相信他们的生活真的如他们所愿。

That's not gonna fool people into being convinced that actually their life is the way they want it to look when they're literally telling you, no.

不是的。

It isn't.

对。

Yeah.

人们并不会以GDP增长为目标进行优化。

People don't optimize for GDP growth.

他们追求的是安全、进步、情绪健康，以及相对地位。

They optimize for security, progress, emotional health, and and also in relative standing.

我也觉得，年轻人在生活中并没有那么多乐趣和快乐。

I also think there's something to the notion that I don't think young people just have as much fun and joy in their lives.

我觉得他们缺乏一种社区感。

I don't think they have a sense of community.

他们去教堂做礼拜的人数已降至历史最低点。

They're not going to religious church attendance is at an all time low.

运动、户外活动、与陌生人相处、饮酒也都处于历史最低水平。

Sports, being outdoors, being in the being in the company of strangers, drinking is at an all time low.

老实说，我觉得你们这一代人并没有那么多乐趣。

I I just don't think, quite frankly, people of your generation are having that much fun.

而当他们真的玩得开心时，却觉得必须工作一下，发个帖子。

And then when they do have fun, they feel as if they need to, like, work and post it.

然后呢，想想，好吧。

And, you know, think, okay.

让我们展示一下我们有多开心。

Let's let's show how much fun we're having.

我们别吃这食物了。

Let's not eat the food.

我们拍几张照片吧。

Let's take pictures of it.

于是他们不断被提醒，自己在相对层面上正在落后。

And so I I and then constantly being reminded that they're that they're falling behind on a relative basis.

我只是觉得这严重损害了他们的情绪健康。

I just think it it just attacks their emotional well-being.

有一项研究发现，当女儿听到母亲的电话声音时，血压几乎立刻就会下降。

And the thing that there's a study that came out that when daughters hear their mother's voice on the phone, almost immediately, blood pressure goes down.

那么，年轻人的血压什么时候会下降呢？

And so, like, when do when do young people's blood pressure go down?

他们什么时候会和陌生人在一起？

When are they in the company of strangers?

他们什么时候能和朋友在一起？

When they when are they with friends?

他们什么时候才能从手机的毒品循环中抽身，真正放松下来，体验快乐和乐趣？

When when do they unplug from a cycle of dope a hit from their phones such that they can just sort of relax and experience joy and fun.

我觉得这很难。

I I think it's I think it's tough.

而且还要告诉他们：等等。

And and to tell them that, wait.

但事实上，在很多方面，你的生活比大多数人要好。

But you actually, on a lot of levels, have a better life than most people.

我明白。

I get it.

每个人都对10%的青年失业率感到恐慌。

Everyone's freaking out about a 10% youth unemployment rate.

但从历史角度看，这其实属于平均水平。

That's not actually historically, that's about average.

但同样，人们并不是这样想的。

But, again, that's not how people think.

人们用相对视角思考，而不是绝对视角。

People think in relative terms, not in absolute terms.

我认为这可以解释特朗普的支持率，目前是他执政以来最糟糕的支持率之一。

And I think it would explain the approval ratings, which are now for Trump, some of the worst approval ratings we've seen.

他的支持率已跌至36%的低点，其中大部分原因与经济有关。

His approval rating has hit a 36% low, and most of it is about the economy.

只有29%的美国人对他处理经济的方式表示认可。

Only 29% of Americans approve of his handling of the economy.

这是有史以来最低的支持率之一。

That's one of the lowest ratings ever.

如今的支持率甚至低于拜登政府时期我们经历新冠疫情后历史性通胀时的低谷。

It is now lower than the really bad lows that we saw during the Biden administration when we saw that historic inflation coming out of COVID.

他最糟糕的问题是通货膨胀和物价。

And his worst issue is inflation and prices.

净支持率已降至负39%，且仍在持续下滑。

Net approval's down to negative 39 and continues to decline.

十分之七的美国人表示，生活成本要么不太可负担，要么完全不可负担。

Seven in 10 Americans say the cost of living is not very affordable or not affordable at all.

61%的人表示，经济状况对他们的个人生活没有起到积极作用，这一比例较五月的57%有所上升。

61% say the economy is not working for them personally, and that is up from 57% in May.

所以，我的意思是，我们或许可以告诉人们，你们的感知是错的，但在这里，这种感知才是最重要的，至少如果你想要赢得选票的话。

So people I mean, we we could tell people, oh, your perception's wrong, but that perception is all that matters here, at least if you're trying to get votes.

如果你想要赢得政治上的胜利，你就不能只是告诉他们：别相信自己的想法。

If you're trying if you're trying to win, a political body, you can't just tell them, don't don't trust your own thoughts.

你理解错了。

You you have it wrong.

情况其实很好。

Things are great.

他们会自己做出判断，而他们已经认定，目前的情况并不理想。

They will decide that for themselves, and they've decided that things are not working out right now.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

想观看我们研究负责人米亚·西尔维奥关于故事叙述科学的独家直播，请在 profgmedia.substack.com 订阅我们的 Substack。

And for an exclusive livestream on the science of storytelling from our research lead, Mia Silverio, sign up for our Substack at profgmedia.substack.com.

她将在明天与付费订阅者进行直播。

She will be going live with paid subscribers tomorrow.

这是一场非常精彩的演示。

It is an excellent presentation.

千万别错过。

Don't miss it.

立即订阅。

Subscribe now.

今天节目的支持来自 Framer。

Support for today's show comes from Framer.

假设你的市场团队想要一个新着陆页，设计团队做好原型后，你的工程部门——本来就忙得不可开交——回应说：好，我们会处理的。

Let's say your marketing team wants a new landing page, so the design team mocks it up and then your engineering department who's already got too much on their plate responds with, yeah, we'll get to it.

从初创公司到《财富》五百强企业，成千上万的企业选择使用 Framer 构建网站，因为在这里，修改只需几分钟，而不是几天，完美解决了这个问题。

Thousands of businesses from early stage startups to Fortune five hundreds are choosing to build their sites in Framer where changes take minutes instead of days to solve this very problem.

Framer 是一款企业级无代码网站构建器，被包括多家公司在内的团队用来加速工作进程。

Framer's enterprise grade no code website builder used by teams at companies including and to move faster.

通过实时协作、功能完备的 CMS（包含所有必要的 SEO 功能）以及包含集成 A/B 测试的高级分析工具，您的设计师和市场人员可以从第一天起就自主构建并优化您的 .com 网站。

With real time collaboration, a robust CMS with everything you need for great SEO, and advanced analytics that include integrated AB testing, your designers and marketers are empowered to build and maximize your .com from day one.

无论您是想推出新网站、测试几个着陆页，还是迁移整个 .com 网站，Framer 都为初创企业、成长型企业和大型企业提供了相应方案，让从创意到上线的过程尽可能简单快捷。

So whether you wanna launch a new site, test a few landing pages, or migrate your full .com, Framer has programs for startups, scale ups, and large enterprises to make going from idea to live site as easy and as fast as possible.

了解如何从 Framer 专家那里获得更多关于您 .com 网站的建议，或立即免费开始构建，访问 framer.com/markets，享受 Framer Pro 年度计划 30% 的折扣。

Learn how you can get more out of your.com from a Framer specialist or get started building for free today at framer.com/markets for 30% off of Framer Pro annual plan.

访问 framer.com/markets，享受 30% 折扣。

That's Framer dot com slash markets for 30% off.

Framer.com/markets。

Framer.com/markets.

规则和限制可能适用。

Rules and restrictions may apply.

本节目由 VCX 赞助，VCX 是私营科技公司的公开股票代码。

Support for the show comes from VCX, the public ticker for private tech.

几代以来，美国公司凭借其创造力和决心推动了世界前进。

For generations, American companies have moved the world forward to their ingenuity and determination.

几代以来，普通美国人通过或许是人类最伟大的创新——美国股市，得以参与这一进程。

And for generations, everyday Americans could be part of that journey through perhaps the greatest innovation of all, The US stock market.

无论你是底特律的工厂工人，还是奥马哈的农民，都无关紧要。

It didn't matter whether you were a factory worker in Detroit or a farmer in Omaha.

任何人都能拥有这些伟大美国公司的股份。

Anyone could own a piece of the great American companies.

但如今，这种情况已经改变了。

But now that's changed.

如今，我们最具创新性的公司选择保持私有，而非上市。

Today, our most innovative companies are staying private rather than going public.

结果是，普通美国人被排除在投资之外，越来越落后，而少数人却独享所有收益，直到现在。

The result is that everyday Americans are excluded from investing and getting left further behind while a select few reap all the benefits until now.

推出VCX，私有科技的公开股票代码。

Introducing VCX, a public ticker for private tech.

VCX由Fundrise提供，让每个人都有机会投资于下一代创新，包括该公司引领的人工智能革命、太空探索、国防科技等。

VCX by Fundrise gives everyone the opportunity to invest in the next generation of innovation, including the company's leading AI revolution, space exploration, defense tech, and more.

访问getvcx.com获取更多信息。

Visit getvcx.com for more info.

就是getvcx.com。

That's getvcx.com.

投资前请仔细考虑投资材料，包括投资目标、风险费用和开支。

Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risk charges, and expenses.

更多相关信息可在getvcx.com上的基金招募说明书里找到。

This and other information can be found in the fund's prospectus at getvcx.com.

这是一则付费赞助内容。

This is a paid sponsorship.

本广告内容由维珍大西洋教育提供。

This is advertiser content brought to you by Virgin Atlantic Ed.

几周前，我给你准备了一份生日礼物，不是为了自夸，但确实是个不错的礼物。

A couple weeks back, I got you a birthday gift not to pat myself on the back, but it was a pretty good one.

确实如此。

It was indeed.

你送了我一张维珍大西洋航空头等舱的伦敦机票，让我很惊喜。

You surprised me with Virgin Atlantic upper class tickets to London.

所以，跟我们详细说说吧。

So, tell us all about it.

那真的非常棒。

It was pretty incredible.

从我踏入头等舱的那一刻起，我必须说，我感觉自己像个贵宾。

From the moment I entered that upper class cabin, I have to tell you, I felt like a VIP.

我需要的任何东西——饮料、小吃、座椅调整协助——都随时可得。

Anything I needed, a drink, snack, assistance with the seat.

平躺座椅。

Flat seats.

平躺座椅。

Flat seats.

没关系。

That's okay.

平躺座椅。

Flat seats.

没错。

Exactly.

吃了四道菜的餐点。

Had the four course meal.

喝了香槟。

Got my champagne.

非常美味。

Very delicious.

享受了这顿饭。

Enjoyed the food.

回家的旅程呢？

And the journey home?

回家的旅程很棒。

The journey home was great.

我去了维珍大西洋伦敦希思罗俱乐部。

I went to the Virgin Atlantic LHR Clubhouse.

那就是希思罗俱乐部。

That's the Heathrow Clubhouse.

希思罗俱乐部太棒了。

Heathrow Clubhouse was awesome.

我给自己买了一杯咖啡，然后去了他们称为Soma Dome的冥想舱。

Got myself a coffee, headed over to the meditation pod they call the Soma Dome.

那里感觉像一艘宇宙飞船，你可以放松，想些美好的事情。

Kind of felt like a sort of spaceship where you relax and think nice thoughts.

所以我在那里待了一会儿。

So I did that for a little bit.

然后我们去了机翼区，那里是隔音的独立隔间，可以工作。

Then we went over to the wing, which are these acoustically sealed booths where you could do some work.

你甚至可以录制一个播客。

You could even record a podcast.

我没这么做，但也许我本该这么做。

I didn't do that, but maybe I should have.

这是一次非常愉快的体验。

It was a very enjoyable experience.

所以，埃德，真正的问题是，你打算给我买什么生日礼物？

So, Ed, the real question here is what are you planning to get me for my birthday?

用维珍大西洋航空，换个角度看世界。

See the world differently with Virgin Atlantic.

飞行不应仅仅是交通工具。

Flying should be more than just transport.

它是冒险的一部分。

It is part of the adventure.

前往 virginatlantic.com 了解更多信息。

Go to virginatlantic.com to learn more.

机票和休息室准入由维珍大西洋航空提供。

Tickets and lounge access provided by Virgin Atlantic.

我们继续回到Prof G Markets。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

一项新的两党法案可能会撼动金融领域增长最快的一个细分领域——预测市场。

A new bipartisan bill could shake up one of the fastest growing corners of finance, prediction markets.

两位参议员提出了一项立法，禁止在CFTC监管的平台（如Calci和Polymarket）上进行与体育相关的博彩。

Two senators introduced legislation that would ban sports related betting on CFTC regulated platforms such as Calci and Polymarket.

该法案还将禁止这些平台未来提供赌场类游戏。

It would also prohibit them from offering casino style games in the future.

这包括从老虎机、二十一点到视频扑克和宾果游戏的所有项目。

That includes everything from slots and blackjack to video poker and bingo.

值得注意的是，这是首次由两党参议员推动的旨在监管预测市场的努力。

Notably, this is the first bipartisan senate effort aimed at regulating prediction markets.

所以，斯科特，这项新提案被称为《预测市场是赌博法案》。

So, Scott, this this new proposal that it's called the prediction markets are gambling act.

简单总结一下这项法案的实际内容。

Just a quick summary of what it would actually do.

它本质上将禁止在这些预测市场平台上进行任何形式的体育博彩。

It would essentially just ban all forms of sports betting on these prediction markets.

这才是主要重点。

That's the main event.

它还规定，禁止这些预测市场平台提供类似赌场的游戏，比如扑克、二十一点、宾果等所有这类游戏。

It also says it's it's banning the these prediction markets platforms from hosting games like casino style games like poker and blackjack, bingo, all this stuff.

我认为这一条款具有误导性，因为这些平台实际上并不提供这些游戏。

I think that's a misleading provision because none of these platforms actually host those games.

它们并不允许你在Kalshi或其他任何平台上玩二十一点。

They're they're not you can't play blackjack on on on Kalshi or any of the other platforms.

但他们基本上是在说，未来也不允许这么做。

But they're basically saying you can't do that in the future.

因此，这项提案的核心其实是禁止体育博彩，而体育博彩在这些平台上已经发展成为一个非常重要的市场。

So the the real meat of this proposal is no more sports betting, which has become a very significant market on these platforms.

所以我想我们先从你对这项两党提案的反应开始吧。

So I guess we'll just start with your reactions here to this proposal, that is bipartisan.

首先，我应该说明一下，Calci 是 Prof G 的数据提供商。

So first off, I should disclose, just before I make my comments that Calci is a data provider for Prof G.

我们非常喜爱他们提供的关于经济学、收益预测和地缘政治的数据。

We absolutely love their data on economics and earnings predictions and geopolitics.

关于这项立法，这是一个难题，因为将投注机会置于更冒险、前额叶皮层发育尚不成熟的群体中，我们已经看到过这样的后果有多糟糕。

With respect to this legislation, this is a tough one because putting the opportunity for wagering in a more risk aggressive, less developed prefrontal cortex, We've seen how that can go wrong.

我认为挑战在于区分这些不同的类别。

I think the challenge is parsing between these different segments.

有游戏，也就是所谓的传统赌博。

There's gaming, quote unquote traditional gambling.

有预测市场，还有期权合约。

There's the prediction markets, and then there's options contracts.

而实际上，预测市场所提供的，是一种感觉、气味和外观都像期权合约的东西。

And effectively, what the prediction markets are doing is they're offering what feels, smells, and looks like an options contract.

你是在为某个结果支付一定金额，而另一个人则相信相反的结果。

And that is you're paying for a certain amount on an outcome against someone else who believes in another outcome.

所以有趣的是，我的观点是，无论他们制定什么立法，都应该适用于所有这些行为。

So what will be interesting is if I mean, my viewpoint is whatever legislation they should have should apply to all of it.

对吧？

Right?

我希望能看到的是，我15岁的孩子急着想跟我一起去拉斯维加斯。

Something I would like to see, you can't my 15 year old is dying to go to Vegas with me.

我不确定这对他来说会有多有趣，因为如果你不到21岁，是不能进入赌场的。

I'm not sure it's gonna be that much fun for him because you can't be on a casino floor if you're under the age of 21.

我希望在所有这些活动中都设置年龄限制。

I would like to see age gating across all these things.

我不确定19岁的年轻人是否真的需要参与零日期权交易。

I'm not sure a 19 year old needs to be playing options zero day options.

零日期权就是赌博。

Zero day options are gambling.

你知道吗，股票市场中80%到90%的买卖本质上都是投机。

I you know, 80% to 90% of stock market purchases and sales are effectively speculation.

你并不是在进行长期投资。

You're not investing for the long term.

而且，如果你在BetMGM上，或者在某些预测市场上，你实际上是在追求一种多巴胺的快感，因为你相信自己能洞察某些事情，并试图赚钱，而输赢的风险会带来这种刺激。

And then and then there's no getting around it if you're on BetMGM or in certain instances on these prediction markets, you are essentially trying to get a dopa hit on a belief that you want to have insight into something and you're trying to make money and the risk of winning or losing creates a hit.

问题是，是否应该针对不同市场制定不同的法规？

The question is, should there be legislation disparate by market?

因为我不认为期权市场会希望将年龄限制设为21岁。

Because I don't think the options markets would want age gating at 21.

我觉得你会看到证券交易所或股票交易平台试图反对这一点。

I think you'd see I think you'd see stock exchanges or stock market platforms try and fight against that.

所以问题在于，我真希望看到的是，去审视这三个类别。

So the question is, do you what I'd love to see is look at those three categories.

这三个类别对心理健康和成瘾率会带来什么影响？

What is the ramifications on the mental health and the rates of addiction across those three categories?

这是否需要不同的监管层级？

And does it warrant distinct or different levels of regulation?

如果不是，那为什么不能统一制定一套监管规则，比如年龄限制、消费额度上限、禁止使用父母的信用卡，或者部署AI算法在用户需要休息时提醒他们，甚至直接关闭账户，等等？

And if not, why wouldn't you just have one set of regulation around age gating, certain limits on how much you can spend, or, you know, not being able to use your parents' credit card, whatever it might be, or have certain AI driven prediction algorithms that say, you need to take a break or we've shut down your account, whatever it might be.

但这无疑将是一个非常有趣的时期，因为最害怕预测市场受到监管的正是期权市场。

But they this is definitely going to be a very interesting period because you know who's most scared of the regulation of prediction markets is the options markets.

因为期权市场正在观察这一切，并思考：它们将如何被监管？

Because the options markets are looking at this and going, okay, how are they going to be regulated?

然后我们又该如何证明自己是不同的？

And then and then how are we going to say we're different?

因为我们的合约看起来惊人地相似。

Because our contracts look shockingly similar.

我的意思是，你一开始就说这是个难题。

I mean, you started with this is a tough one.

而我认为你实际上已经完成了这项任务中最困难的部分，也就是大家都在讨论的问题：到底该在哪里划线？

And then I think you actually did the tough part, the hard part of the task here, which everyone's been talking about, which is I mean, the question is where do you draw the lines?

比如，你如何对这些不同的事物进行分类？

Like, how do you categorize these different things?

但你确实做到了，而且在我看来，你做得对。

But you did that, and in my view, you did that correctly.

你说体育博彩是一种赌博形式，而期权和期货交易或许也可以被看作某种形式的赌博，但我们可能都同意，这与赌体育比赛结果是不同的。

And that is you said there's sports betting, which is a form of gambling, and there's options in futures trading, which you could maybe say is kind of like gambling, but we both probably agree it's different from betting on the outcome of sports games.

你知道，预测市场参与者给我们的一些略带调侃的反驳是：你们到底该怎么划这条线？

And, you know, this is the I I think some of the slightly facetious pushback that we've gotten from the prediction markets players is they say, how are you supposed to draw the line here?

你们在哪里划线？

Where do you draw the line?

我最喜欢约翰·奥利弗说的一句话，伟大的约翰·奥利弗，他说：你们在哪里划线？

And my favorite line from from John Oliver, the great John Oliver, he said, where do draw the line?

你总得在某个地方划一条线。

You draw it somewhere.

我们在这里所做的，以及你刚刚所做的，就是划出了一条线，我完全同意这条线：体育博彩有其自身的监管形式和联邦框架。

So what we've done here and what you've just done is you've drawn a line, which I completely agree with, and that is that there is sports betting, which has its own form of regulation and has its own federal framework.

大部分监管都是在州一级进行的。

It most of the regulation does happen at the state level.

根据你所在的州不同，法律也各不相同。

And depending on what state you're in, there are different laws.

在一些州，有年龄限制。

In some states, there is an age requirement.

你必须年满21岁。

You have to be 21.

在其他州，18岁就可以。

In in other states, you can be 18.

大多数州关于安全赌博的规定都类似。

Most of the states have similar rules around how to gamble safely.

你有安全广告的规定。

You have safe advertising rules.

你有展示赌博问题求助资源的规定。

You have rules on displaying resources for problem gamblers.

这些规则各不相同，但你需要一个框架。

There there are all of these different rules, but you need the framework.

你需要明确划定界限和范围，才能开始监管这类活动，而我们在体育博彩上已经这样做了。

You need the lines and the boxes to be drawn in order to start regulating this stuff, which we have done with sports betting.

它并不完全有效，但至少让我们前进了一步。

And it doesn't work totally, but it gets us somewhere.

还有期权和期货交易。

Then there's options and there's futures trading.

目前，我们在法律上将它们视为不同的事物。

And currently, we treat that legally as a different thing.

你是在押注股票价格的涨跌。

This is where you bet on the price of stocks going up and down.

你是在押注大宗商品的价格。

You bet on the price of commodities.

它由商品期货交易委员会监管。

It's regulated by the CFTC.

正如你所提到的，最低年龄是18岁。

The minimum age, as you mentioned, is 18.

你或许可以提出一些理由，说明为什么可能应该将年龄提高到21岁。

Maybe you could have an argument as to why it might you might wanna make it 21.

但关键是，这个框架已经存在并实施了，而且它与体育博彩不同。

But the point being, the framework is there and it's in place, and it is different from sports betting.

因此，我认为我们这里实际上有一项不错的监管措施。

And so I think what we have here is actually a good piece of regulation.

我原本以为监管机构可能会过度反应，直接全面禁止预测市场。

I was thinking that maybe regulators would go overboard and say, ban prediction markets entirely.

它们全都是坏的。

They're all bad.

这全是赌博。

It's all gambling.

不是的。

No.

相反，他们决定说，嘿。

Instead, what they've decided is they said, hey.

很多人在这些平台上投注体育赛事。

A lot of people are betting on sports on these things.

这看起来很像赌博，确实与我们在这个节目中真正喜欢的内容——金融事件合约——大不相同。

That looks a lot like gambling, and it does look a lot different from the stuff that we actually like on this program, which is the financial events contracts.

合约和预测市场会问：利率会发生什么变化？

The contracts and the prediction markets would say, what's gonna happen to interest rates?

通货膨胀会如何发展？

What's gonna happen to inflation?

汽油价格会怎样变动？

What's gonna happen to gas prices?

对我来说，这基本上就是期权交易。

To me, that's basically options trading.

这基本上就是期货交易。

That's basically futures trading.

是的。

Yes.

这有风险。

It's risky.

是的，你或许可以论证它与赌博类似，但它与押注超级碗、世界杯冠军或猜测谁能进入甜蜜十六强，完全是两码事。

And, yes, you could make arguments that it's similar to gambling, but it is far and away a different thing from betting on the outcome of the Super Bowl or the World Cup or trying to figure out who's gonna be in the sweet 16.

这是两件不同的事情。

Those are two separate things.

所以我认为这里的做法实际上是合理的。

So I think this is actually sensible here.

你看。

It's like, look.

继续交易这些金融合约吧，因为我们已经发现，它们在预测未来事件方面，很多时候比华尔街还要精准。

Keep trading these financial contracts because what we've learned is they're actually really great for predicting things about the future better than Wall Street in a lot of cases.

它们对于理解新闻也非常有帮助。

They're also really helpful for understanding the news.

这就是我们经常使用这些数据的原因，因为如果我们想了解这一重大事件如何影响未来的发展，我们通常会看向像Kalshi这样的市场或平台，然后说：好吧。

That's why we use that data all the time because if we wanna understand how did this big event affect what is going to happen in the future, we often look to a a market, a platform like Kalshi, and we say, okay.

是的。

Yeah.

利率下降或上升的概率已经上升了x y个百分点。

The probability of of interest rates coming down or going up has gone up x y percent.

这很有用，但你必须开始划清界限，弄清楚每种不同事物的类别。

And that's a useful thing, but you have to start drawing the lines and figuring out what is the category of each different thing.

一旦你做到了这一点，你就能开始达成某种合理的监管框架。

And once you do that, then you can start to reach some semblance of sensible regulation.

但如果你一直说，哦，一切都太模糊了。

But if you keep saying, oh, it's all too blurry.

这全是灰色地带。

It's all gray zone.

你将永远无法取得任何进展。

You're never gonna get anywhere.

这件事有两个方面。

There's two ends of this.

一方面是终端消费者，另一方面是B2B那边。

There's the end consumer, and then there's, I don't know, the b two b side.

我们联邦储备系统的经济学家表示，Kalshi在预测通胀和联邦基金利率决策方面优于专业经济指标。

We so Federal Reserve economists have said that Calci is better than professional economic indicators of predicting inflation and fed fund rate decisions.

这些数据对媒体公司和分析师，比如我们自己，具有真正的价值。

This data has real value to media companies and analysts, like ourselves.

Kalshi在美联储利率决策上有着完美的预测记录。

Calcchi has a perfect forecast record on Fed rate decisions.

完美。

Perfect.

到目前为止，他们在美联储利率预测上的准确率是100%。

So far, they're batting 100% on Fed rate predictions.

而且，这不仅仅是宏观经济数据。

And also, it's not just macroeconomic data.

Calcchi的盈利预测与华尔街的预测一样准确。

Calcchi's earnings predictions are as accurate as Wall Street's.

现在的问题是，在体育方面，我们既不关心也不谈论公羊队赢得NFC季后赛的赔率。

Now the question is, all right, on the sports side, we don't care nor do we talk about what the odds are of the Rams winning the NFC playoffs.

对吧？

Right?

我们根本不关心。

We don't don't care.

这并不是我们所从事的业务。

That's not the business we're in.

对于一个21岁的年轻人来说，在拉斯维加斯下注，和在体育赛事预测市场上下注，难道应该比去拉斯维加斯或印第安人保留地下注体育比赛更难吗？

Should it be more difficult for a 21 year old to bet in Las Vegas or bet on a prediction market on a sporting event than it is to go to Vegas or a Native American reservation and bet on sports there.

或者，我的意思是，为什么这些人——也许他们只是受到同样的影响——但我觉得我很难界定：到底是过度保护人们，还是承认这里确实存在真正的潜在危害。

Or, I mean, why are these guys and maybe it's they're just being subject to the same things, but it strikes me I I struggle with the the the line between infantilizing people and and also recognizing there's real potential for harm here.

我猜监管机构也在为这个问题所困扰。

And I imagine that's what the regulators are struggling with.

但当你在拉斯维加斯时，是可以赌体育赛事的。

But when you were in Vegas, you could bet on sports.

对吧？

Right?

是的，当然。

Oh, yeah.

毫无疑问。

For sure.

那论点是什么呢？

So what's the argument?

我先做个稻草人论证吧，支持这个观点的论点是什么？或者反过来，最强论点是什么？

I'll just straw man is what's the argument or steel man is?

支持为什么不能在预测市场上这么做，理由是什么？

What's the argument for why you shouldn't be able to do that on the predictions markets?

我觉得你可以，但应该像赌博一样进行监管。

I think you should, but it should be regulated like gambler.

我的意思是，这基本上就是全部了。

I mean, that's that's basically it.

如果是赌博，就按赌博来监管。

If it's gambling, regulate it like gambling.

我的意思是，这些公司真正的问题在于，它们利用了一个漏洞：如果它们不被当作赌博来监管，而是被当作期权来监管——这正是当前法律的规定——那么它们就不受任何赌博法规的约束，这意味着它们可以在体育博彩非法的州运营。

So, I mean, I think the real problem for these companies is the the workaround that is beneficial is that if you're regulated not like gambling and you're regulated like options, which is what the current laws are, then you're not subject to any gambling regulations, which means that you can operate in states in which sports betting is illegal.

所以这确实是个问题。

So that's a problem.

这是个合理的观点。

That's a fair point.

所以对我来说，就是这么回事。

So for me, it's just like, okay.

属于赌博的那部分，就按赌博来监管。

The stuff that's gambling, regulate that like gambling.

你不应该在那些已经决定禁止体育博彩的州交易体育赛事合约。

You shouldn't be trading sports events contracts in states in which they've decided that sports gambling is illegal.

这不应该是 happening 的。

That shouldn't be happening.

但在那些合法的州，就让他们做吧。

But in states where it is legal, let them have it.

另一个问题。

Another question.

当你在赌绿湾包装工队的时候。

And as you're betting on the Green Bay packers.

对吧？

Right?

你是在跟那些认为他们会输的人对赌，而你认为他们会赢。

You're betting against someone who thinks they're gonna lose, and you think they're gonna win.

零日期权。

Zero day options.

我在赌苹果股票会上涨。

I'm betting Apple stock's gonna go up.

你在赌它会下跌。

You're betting it's gonna go down.

你在撰写合约。

You're writing you're writing the contract.

我是在购买。

I'm buying it.

这两者哪一种更像赌博？

Is one more or less gambling than the other?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为体育博彩比其他形式的赌博更像赌博。

I believe that the sports gambling is more more gambling than than the other.

我认为另一种，我认为零日期权是有道理的。

I think the other I think the the zero day option makes a case.

它很接近赌博。

It has a it's pretty close to gambling.

但再说一遍，如果我们打算划清界限——这正是我想做的——我认为这个界限很容易划。

But, again, if we're drawing lines, which I'd like to do, I think that's a pretty easy line to draw.

一个是关于金融产品的。

One is about a financial product.

如果苹果的分析师戴上头盔、穿上球衣呢？

What if the Apple analyst puts on a helmet and a jersey?

我看不出有什么区别。

I I don't see the difference.

根据这个定义，我认为零日期权就是赌博。

I I I I see zero day options by that definition as gambling.

那我们就只好举手投降，说好吧。

Then we just throw our hands up and say, okay.

那就都让他们做吧。

Let them all have it.

我的意思是，我们已经在监管中划过一条线了：如果你去DraftKings下注比赛，那就是赌博。

I mean, we we have drawn a line already in our regulation where we say, if you go on DraftKings and you bet on the game, that's gambling.

如果你在Robinhood上交易期权，那就是另一回事了。

If you go on your, Robin Hood and you bet on options, that's something else.

当我看到零日期权并去平台查看时，在我看来，这就像维加斯加上了一个强大的Reddit元素。

When I saw zero day options and I went on a platform to look at it, to me, it was just it was Vegas with a a strong Reddit component.

所以我觉得没什么太大区别。

And and so I don't see much of a difference.

完全同意。

Totally agree.

这里最紧张的人其实是预测市场这个现象。

The people who are actually the most nervous here the prediction markets are phenomena.

它们正在多个维度上迅速扩张，对吧？

They're they're exploding, right, across a number of dimensions.

我认为这里最紧张的人是CFTC，也就是期权合约的监管机构。

I think the people who are most nervous here are whatever it is, the CFTC, the governing body of options contracts.

因为他们在零日期权上的做法，已经非常接近赌博了。

Because where they have gone with zero day options, it's getting awfully close to gambling.

我认为他们很难解释为什么我们应该受到不同于赌博的其他监管。

And I think they're gonna have a difficult time saying why why we should be subject to different regulations and other things deemed as gambling.

我认为我们更需要的是关于这种现象对人们影响的研究。

What I think we need more of is research on on the effect and the impact this is having on people.

你知道，有一些研究指出，一旦赌博在某个州合法化，破产率会立即上升。

You know, there's some there's some research saying that gambling once gambling is legalized in the state, bankruptcies immediately go up.

对吧？

Right?

这是个负面效应。

That's that's a negative.

年轻人具体受到了什么影响？

What's happening specifically to young people?

他们的心理健康如何？

What's happening to their mental health?

他们的财务状况如何？

What's happening to their financial well-being?

所以，你看，我觉得这些类别之间需要更多的研究，以及一个坚实的理由来说明是否以及如何界定它们的差异，从而支持针对不同类别制定不同的法律。

So, look, I I it feels like there needs to be more research across these categories and a really solid justification for if and how we create its distinction that warrants different legislation across these categories.

我不认为我们需要把事情搞得这么复杂。

I don't think we need to complicate things that much.

比如，只要说这是赌博，并不意味着你就不能继续做了。

Like, just by saying, yes, that's gambling, doesn't mean that you're just saying you're not allowed to do it anymore.

它只是意味着现在你应该像赌博一样受到监管，这意味着你确实无法在那些这项活动非法的州运营。

All it's saying is you should be regulated like gambling now, which means, yes, you won't be able to operate in this number of states where this thing is illegal.

但当然，你可以去内华达州设立据点，在那里进行体育博彩，但让我们就按事物的本质来监管它们。

But, of course, you go go set up camp in Nevada and and do your do the sports sports betting there, but let's just regulate the things for what they are.

有一件事更类似于期权交易。

One thing is more similar to options trading.

有一件事更类似于体育博彩。

One thing is more similar to sports betting.

广告后我们马上回来。

We'll be right back after the break.

如果你喜欢这个节目，请从下周开始关注我们的新频道‘Prof G Markets’YouTube频道。

And if you're enjoying the show, please follow our new Prof G Markets YouTube channel starting next week.

我们的YouTube内容都会发布在这个频道上。

That is where you will find our content on YouTube.

本节目由SoFi赞助。

Support for the show comes from SoFi.

在这个经济环境中，你的首要任务是掌控好自己的财务状况。

To stay ahead in this economy, your number one priority should be staying on top of your finances.

面对通货膨胀和市场波动，你不能被动应对。

With inflation and market shifts, you can't afford to be passive.

你需要主动规划每一笔钱的去向。

You need to be proactive about where every dollar is going.

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And part of that is having a bank that actually works for you.

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And if you join SoFi Plus between now and April 15, you'll have a chance to win over $75,000 in cash.

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SoFi is also giving 20 individuals a thousand dollars in cash prizes and 50 winners free SoFi Plus memberships for a year.

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Head to sofi.com/scottg to enter.

条款和条件适用。

Terms and conditions apply.

要了解更多关于SoFi Plus的信息，请访问sofi.com/sofi-plus。

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多年来，共和党政治圈里基本上只有一人主张对伊朗进行政权更迭，并呼吁美国采取积极的军事行动来实现这一目标。

There's basically been one guy in Republican politics who's argued for a regime change in Iran for years and for America to take a proactive military role in making it happen.

这位人士就是约翰·博尔顿大使，特朗普总统前国家安全顾问。

Ambassador John Bolton, president Trump's former national security adviser.

但如今，就连博尔顿也表示，唐纳德·特朗普把事情搞砸了。

But now, even Bolton says Donald Trump is messing it up.

据我们所知，他根本没有为伊朗境内的反对派做任何准备。

As far as we can tell, he did no preparation of the opposition actually inside Iran.

没有协调，没有尝试了解他们会如何行动，也没有提供任何支持——无论是资源、资金、武器，还是电信支持，完全没有任何协调。

No coordination, no effort to, see what they would do, no no effort to support them to provide resources, money, arms if that's what they wanted, telecommunications, just just no coordination at all.

而且，他们似乎也完全没有做好准备。

And, they don't seem prepared for it.

特朗普是如何失去共和党最大鹰派支持的。

How Trump lost the Republican Party's biggest around Warhawk.

今天《解释》工作日每天更新，周六也有。

Today Explain every weekday and on Saturdays too.

你好。

Hi.

我是布琳·布朗。

I'm Brene Brown.

我是亚当·格兰特。

And I'm Adam Grant.

我们在这里邀请你来探索‘好奇心商店’。

And we're here to invite you to the Curiosity Shop.

这是一个适合倾听、思考、感受和质疑的播客。

A podcast that's a place for listening, wondering, thinking, feeling, and questioning.

这会很有趣。

It's gonna be fun.

我们很少意见一致。

We rarely agree.

但我们几乎从不争吵，而且总是在学习。

But we almost never disagree, and we're always learning.

确实如此。

That's true.

你可以在YouTube上订阅《好奇心商店》，或在您最喜欢的播客应用中关注我们，每周四自动接收新 episodes。

You can subscribe to the Curiosity Shop on YouTube or follow in your favorite podcast app to automatically receive new episodes every Thursday.

我们回到《Prof G 市场》。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

上周两项重大法院裁决可能成为社交媒体公司的转折点。

Two major court rulings last week could mark a turning point for social media companies.

首先，新墨西哥州的一个陪审团裁定，Meta未能保护用户免受儿童掠食者的侵害，违反了州法律。

First, a New Mexico jury found Meta had violated state law by failing to protect its users from child predators.

Meta被判决支付3.75亿美元的赔偿金。

Meta was ordered to pay $375,000,000 in damages.

本周晚些时候，洛杉矶的一个陪审团裁定Meta和YouTube在社交媒体成瘾案件中负有责任，认定其平台故意设计成上瘾形式，并加剧了年轻用户的心理健康问题。

Later in the week, a Los Angeles jury found Meta and YouTube liable in a social media addiction case, concluding that their platforms were intentionally addictive and contributed to a young user's mental health issues.

Meta必须支付420万美元的赔偿金，YouTube必须支付180万美元。

Meta has to pay $4,200,000 in damages, and YouTube must pay 1,800,000.

这场审判是针对这些社交媒体公司提起的1600多起相关案件中的第一起。

The trial is the first in a wave of more than 1,600 related cases brought against these social media companies.

许多人将这一判决称为风向标，认为它可能为更多关注用户福祉的诉讼打开大门。

Many are calling the decision a bellwether, saying it could open the door to a surge of new lawsuits focused on user well-being.

斯科特，这基本上是我们首次看到针对大型科技公司的此类裁决，而你多年来一直对此强烈批评。

Scott, this is basically the first ruling we've seen of its kind against big tech, a subject you have been railing against for many, many years.

这正是你第一本重要著作的主题。

It was literally the subject of your first, major book.

在这两起案件中，法院都裁定大型科技公司败诉。

And they ruled in favor or they ruled against big tech in both of these trials.

你怎么看？

What do you make of it?

这确实是个大事。

Like, it is a big deal.

这并不是结束的开始，而是开始的结束，这就是我的看法。

And it's it's not the beginning of the end, but it's the end of the beginning is the way I would describe it.

对于那些具有外部性、严重损害公众利益的有害物质或行为，我们通常需要很长时间才能认清真相。

And that is typically with with harmful substances or practices that have an externality that really damages the the public, It takes we usually figure it out.

烟草花了三十年才被认清。

It took thirty years of tobacco.

阿片类药物花了二十年。

It took twenty years of opiates.

如果你看看社交媒体在2013年进入移动端的时间点，看起来也差不多需要二十年。

And if you look at when social went on mobile in 2013, it looks like it's gonna take about twenty years.

我认为这些公司现在正面对陪审团，而这些陪审员的孩子们亲身经历过智能手机和社交媒体的侵蚀，他们亲眼目睹了其危害，并感到被欺骗了。

I do think that these companies are now facing juries, and these juries have children who have gone through phones, smartphones with social media, and they've seen firsthand just how damaging it is, and they feel lied to.

当我2017年写《四》这本书时，争论的焦点还在于这些公司到底是不是坏的。

When I wrote the four in 2017, the argument was over whether these companies were bad or not.

当时争论的是，谁会成为总统——杰夫·贝佐斯还是谢丽尔·桑德伯格。

It was who was gonna be president, Jeff Bezos or Sheryl Sandberg.

我的意思是，人们对这些公司、这些创新者、这些科技高管的喜爱非同寻常，社交媒体帮助连接了那些孩子患有罕见童年疾病的父母。

I mean, the the the affection for these companies, these innovators, these tech executives was extraordinary, and social media was helping connect parents of kids with childhood, you know, strange childhood diseases.

它重新连接了你从学校时代就认识的朋友，简直就像彩虹和独角兽一样美好。

It was reconnecting your friends from from call I mean, it was all like rainbows and unicorns.

当我刚开始写这本书时，它简直是一封写给这些公司的情书。

And when I initially started writing the book, it was like it was a love letter to these companies.

但当我真正开始研究数据时，我想：好吧。

And then as I really started looking at data, I'm like, okay.

这里有些不对劲。

This doesn't something's wrong here.

这种感觉很危险。

This feels this feels dangerous.

在过去九年里，他们缓慢但坚定地将政府武器化，利用公民联合案创造了令人难以置信的模糊策略，并聘请了极其出色的公关人员、顶尖的法律顾问，以及极具魅力和亲和力的高管，从尼克·克雷格到谢丽尔·桑德伯格，还有那个谁，伊万。

And slowly but surely, and over the last nine years, they have weaponized government, created unbelievable tactics around the land obfuscation leveraging Citizens United, and exceptionally star PR people, exceptional comps people, exceptionally charming and likable executives from Nick Clegg to Sheryl Sandberg to, you know, I forget his name, Evan.

他非常讨人喜欢。

He's super likable.

我有个快照。

I had a snap.

我忘了他的名字。

I forgot his name.

这是个大问题。

It's big one.

事实上，我们的孩子开始自残，我们也不再喜欢彼此。

And the reality is our kids started self harming, and we started not liking each other.

我们开始相信，敌人不是俄罗斯军队越过乌克兰边境。

And we started believing that the enemy wasn't Russian troops pouring over the border in Ukraine.

而是那个挂着错误总统标语的邻居。

It was our neighbor with the wrong presidential sign.

我们开始在网上互相攻击，而外部势力——那些在经济或军事上无法击败我们的人——利用了这些以最差股东利益为导向的平台，投放煽动性内容，使我们分裂。

And we started attacking each other online, and then outside actors with who couldn't beat us economically or kinetically took advantage of a poorest shareholder driven platforms to start planting incendiary content that got us divided.

我不认为美国人真的分裂了，而是有人在故意制造分裂。

I don't think Americans are actually divided, but we have people dividing us.

这些公司正是这一现象的推手，如今它们有着强烈的经济动机去生产大量内容——其中许多是有用的、无害的，但有些内容却会让你对自己或他人感到愤怒。

And these companies are the agents for it, and now there's just this economic incentive to create a serious set of content, much of which is useful, much of which is benign, but some of it just gets you angry at yourself, angry at others.

回到刚才那个关于年轻人为何即使取得了一些微小进步仍感到糟糕的故事：他们每天都被告知自己不够好，不够性感，不够富有，不够出色。

And going back to the last story about why young people feel bad even though maybe they've made modest gains, they they're told every day that they're failing, that they're not hot enough, they're not wealthy enough, they're not impressive enough.

这些公司在此次审判中暴露的问题令人极度不安：新墨西哥州总检察长伪装成一名11岁女孩创建了一个账户。

And these firms, what came out in this trial, which was so incredibly disturbing, is the New Mexico attorney general created an account posing as an 11 year old girl.

几乎在瞬间，这个11岁的账户就收到了来自已知性侵犯者以及青少年欺凌其他青少年的大量色情图片。

And almost instantly, the 11 the account got bombarded with explicit images from known sexual abusers, from kids preying on kids.

所以让我确认一下。

So let me get this.

你们能知道我正在参加碧昂丝的演唱会，就给我推送从该地点回家的打车广告；或者知道我孩子快到考驾照的年龄了，就开始给我推送佛罗里达州针对青少年的汽车保险广告。

You can serve me you can tell when I'm at a Beyonce concert and serve me an ad for a ride home from that location, or you know when my kid's about to turn, get his learner's permit, and start serving me ads for auto insurance for a kid in Florida.

但你们之前不知道吗？

But you didn't know this?

你们不知道这种事情正在发生吗？

You didn't know this was going on?

这一点揭示的发现将对这些公司造成极大的冲击，因为事实是，他们早就知道发生了什么。

And what this shows, the discovery here is gonna be so horrific for these companies because the reality is they knew what was going on.

但任何对商业模式造成阻碍的事情，他们都会置之不理。

But anything that introduced friction to the business model, they ignored.

我想说清楚一点。

And I wanna be clear.

我认为这些公司总体上对社会是有益的，除了Meta。

I think these companies are a net good for society, except for Meta.

我认为Meta已经过界，现在成了净负面影响。

I think Meta's jumped the shark and is now a net negative.

但大型科技公司总体上对社会是有利的。

But big tech is a net positive for society.

问题在于‘净’这个词——我们从农药和化石燃料中获得了净收益，但我们仍然有环保署和排放标准。

The problem is with the word net, and that is we're net beneficiaries from pesticides and fossil fuels, but we still have an EPA and emission standards.

这些公司目前没有任何监管，而它们一直在抵制监管。

We have no regulation around these companies, and they have fought.

他们假装关心儿童安全，推出那些根本无法使用和理解的儿童保护功能。

They pretend to give a flying fuck about children with child safety features that are impossible to navigate and figure out.

而真正为此付出代价的是低收入家庭，因为我有足够的资源去努力让我的孩子远离屏幕。

And then, of course, the people who've really paid the price here are low income households because I have the resources to try and make my kids try and keep my kids off screens.

我有钱支付课后活动的费用。

I have the money to pay for after school stuff.

我有时间和精力待在家里，确保他们不能独自一人待在有屏幕的房间里——这是我们家的规定。

I have the time and attention to be at home to ensure they can't go into the room alone with a screen, which is a rule we have.

我小时候，我妈在我起床前就出门了，有时直到我睡着后才回家，甚至更晚。

When I was growing up, you know, my mom was out of the house before I got up, sometimes didn't get home till after I was asleep or later.

如果我当时一个人在家，手里拿着iPad，还有YouTube、Instagram、YouPorn、Reddit和Discord，我不确定我是否还能走出家门。

If I'd been at home bored with an iPad and and, you know, YouTube and Instagram and YouPorn and Reddit and Discord, I'm not sure I would have ever left the house.

而我的大脑在青春期时，被不断即时获取多巴胺的需求重塑，我认为这一代人，不幸的是，我的15岁和18岁的孩子们不得不忍受这种胡扯。

And then my brain being rewired as I'm going through puberty around a constant need and access to DOPA right away whenever I wanted to squeeze it, I think this generation, unfortunately, my kids at 15 and 18 had to endure this bullshit.

我不认为你的孩子会这样，我觉得我们正在逐渐明白过来。

I don't think your kids I think we're gonna I think we're figuring it out.

我认为在三到五年内，真正关键的不是罚款。

And I think in three to five years, it wasn't the fines that are the big deal.

而是现在其他成千上万起针对这些公司的诉讼有了法律先例可以追责。

It's the fact that now the other thousands of lawsuits against these companies have legal precedent to go after them.

我们前同事玛丽亚·彼得罗娃向我强调的另一个有趣点是，原本应该为这些公司承担此类责任的保险公司表示，他们不会赔付，因为这些公司是故意为之。

And last interesting feature that our old colleague Maria Petrova highlighted to me is that the insurance companies meant to insure these companies against this type of liability are saying that they're not gonna pay, that they're not covered because they intentionally did this.

他们知道自己在做什么，并且是故意这样做的。

They knew they were doing it, and they intentionally did it.

如果保险公司早就知道他们是故意违法，就不会为他们提供保险。

And if the insurance companies had known they were intentionally breaking the law, they couldn't insure them.

当然，保险公司一向以在你真正需要他们赔付时千方百计推脱而闻名。

Now far be it for any insurance company to actually you know, insurance companies are famous for trying to get out of when you actually call on them to pay for it.

但这正是当年的‘大烟草’时刻。

But this is this is that big tobacco moment.

我记不清是1991年了。

I forget it was 1991.

我记不清具体是什么时候了。

I forget when it was.

但这就是那个关键时刻。

But this is that moment.

所以，再次强调，我不认为社交媒体会消失，但这是开端的结束。

So, again, I I don't think social media is going away, but this is the end of the beginning.

这是西部荒野时代的终结，那时这些公司可以享有完全的豁免权。

This is the end of the Wild West when these companies could operate with total immunity.

所以，我认为这是一个重要的时刻。

So I'm I think this is a big moment.

我对这感到兴奋。

I'm excited about it.

我以前也说过这样的话。

I've said that before.

我曾经感到失望，但我觉得这次不一样了。

I've been disappointed, but I think it's I think this is different this time.

而且这两起案件在数小时内相继作出相同判决，这一点本身也说明了问题。

And the fact that both these cases came down with the same verdict within hours of each other also says something.

这里出现了一种模式，这将给许多原告律师和众多家长带来全新的动力。

This is a pattern here, and it's gonna give a lot of plaintiffs' attorneys and a lot of parents newfound mojo.

顺便说一下，市场也认同这一点，这对我来说是最突出的时刻。

And by the way, the market agrees, and that was the big standout moment for me.

Meta公司在周四下跌超过5%，创下十个月来的最低点。

The Meta actually fell on Thursday down more than 5%, ten month low.

所以，市场正在告诉你：是的，这确实有实质性的影响力。

So that's the market telling you actually, yes, this does have teeth.

这是一件大事。

This is a big deal.

我想回到你一开始提到的一点，那就是这是一场陪审团审判。

And I just wanna go back to a point you made at the beginning there about the fact that this was a jury trial.

这两起案件都是由陪审团裁决的，并且在两起案件中，陪审团都认定大型科技公司的行为属于违法。

So both of these trials were ruled by a jury, and and that was and it was decided in both cases that, what big tech was doing was illegal.

但我们所看到的大多数大型科技案件都是陪审团审判。

But most of the major big tech cases that we've seen have been decide they've they've been bench trials.

它们都是由法官裁决的。

They've been decided by a judge.

所以，在FTC诉Meta的案件中，那是一场法官审判。

So in the FTC versus Meta trial, that was a bench trial.

法官裁定支持Meta。

The judge ruled in favor of Meta.

我们还有司法部诉谷歌的案件，同样是由法官裁决的。

We had the DOJ versus Google trial, which was decided on again by a judge.

法官阿米特·梅塔表示，谷歌实际上构成了垄断。

Judge Amit Mehta said that Google actually was a monopoly.

它们一直在运营这种垄断。

They were operating this monopoly.

但当涉及到处罚和补救措施时，他表示，实际上我们不会采取任何补救措施。

But when it came time for the penalties and the remedies, he said, actually, we're not gonna issue any remedies.

我们不会处以罚款，因为OpenAI正在崛起，很快就会抢占谷歌的市场份额。

We're not gonna issue a penalty because OpenAI is coming up and coming, and it's gonna start to eat Google's lunch.

所以对谷歌来说这不公平。

And so that would be unfair to Google.

那你猜怎么着？

And then what do you know?

谷歌凭借Gemini彻底压制了OpenAI。

Google starts to crush OpenAI with Gemini.

所以这个论点根本站不住脚，但为时已晚。

So that argument didn't make any sense, but too late.

判决已经做出了。

The decision is made.

2026年我们在FTC诉亚马逊案中也会遇到同样的情况，该案也将由法官裁决。

We had the same thing coming up in 2026 in the FTC versus Amazon case, which will also be decided by a judge.

所以，通常这些案件都不是由陪审团裁决的。

So, usually, these cases haven't been decided by a jury.

这些案件通常由法官裁决。

They've usually been decided by a judge.

我认为这是大型科技公司非常青睐的一点，因为他们更希望这些问题不通过民主、不通过民众来裁决。

And I think that is something that big tech really likes because I think that they would prefer to not have these issues adjudicated by the democracy, by the people.

由父母来裁决。

By parents.

由父母来裁决。

By parents.

法官的职责本质上就是把所有情绪从案件中剔除。

It's basically the judge's job to remove all of the emotion out of the equation.

这正是他们受训要做的——深入钻研所有法律条文的细节，而你必须 overwhelmingly 地专注于这些。

This is literally what they get trained to do and get really into the the minutiae of of all of the statutory elements, and that's what you have to focus on overwhelmingly.

但当你将案件交由公众裁决时，正如你所说，那些孩子上瘾、孩子自残的父母们，所有这些情绪都会累积起来。

But when you open it up to the people, as you say, whose whose children have gotten addicted, whose children have engaged in self harm, all of that starts to build up.

这意味着最终你会说：你知道吗？

And it means that eventually you're gonna say, you know what?

我不会对你们从轻发落。

I'm not gonna go lenient on you guys.

我不会轻易放过你们，也不会这么轻松地让你们过关。

I'm not gonna give it I'm not just gonna play it so easy and roll over so easily here.

我会非常严厉地对待，因为你们对我的生活、对整个社会所造成的影响极其恶劣，必须受到惩罚。

I'm gonna be very, very harsh because the things that you have done to my life, the things that you have done to our society at large are egregious, and they need to be punished.

我认为这些大型科技公司真的不希望看到这一点，因此我认为这两个案件都由陪审团裁决，这一点非常值得注意。

And that's something that I think these big tech companies really don't want to see, which is why I think it is so notable that it was a jury in both cases.

我相信其中一个案件的裁决是全体一致通过的，因为如今美国民众对大型科技公司的愤怒和不满已经积压已久，而这确实很重要。

I believe one of them, the the decision was unanimous across all of them because there is so much pent up anger and frustration among the American people right now against big tech, and that actually matters.

真正重要的是，我们需要一个宣泄的时刻，来明确指出：你们多年来对我们所做的一切都是错误的。

It actually is important to have a moment of catharsis where you can actually express, look at all of the wrongs that you have done to us over many, many years.

是的，我们将利用这个时刻、这场审判，向你们表达这一切：事实上，这根本不能被接受。

And, yes, this we are going to use this moment and this trial as our moment to express that to you and say, actually, this isn't okay.

所以我希望未来能看到更多由陪审团审理的案件。

So I hope that we will see many more jury trials.

我认为，我们将会发现，陪审团审判越多，它们就越倾向于判决大科技公司败诉。

And I think that what we'll find is that the more jury trials that we have, the more they're gonna be ruling against big tech.

每当有人声称屏幕使用时间关乎育儿好坏时，这就表明他们没有孩子。

Whenever anyone says that time on screens is about bad parenting or good parenting, that's a tell that they don't have children.

现在孩子们的作业都是在屏幕上完成的。

They get their homework on their screens now.

这就是他们与朋友交流的方式。

This is how they communicate with their friends.

纽约大学的同事亚当·阿尔特几乎没有得到应有的认可，因为他被乔纳森·海特以及其他更擅长炒作的教授们盖过了风头，那些教授们甚至开了多个播客。

And Adam Alter, a colleague at NYU, doesn't get nearly the recognition because he's overshadowed by Jonathan Haidt and anyways, other other profs that are more retail whores would start multiple podcasts.

他写了一本书，叫什么来着？

He wrote a book called what was it called?

《上瘾》还是《执着》？

Addicted or Relentless?

不管怎样，他写了一本关于这些产品成瘾性的优秀著作。

Anyways, he wrote a great book about the addiction of of these products.

他说，真正令人难过的是，如果你没有集体禁令，如果你告诉孩子不能用Snapchat，不能用Instagram，他们会因为社交孤立而更加抑郁。

And he said that the really sad thing is if you don't have a collective ban, if you take your kid, if you tell your kid you can't be on Snap and you can't be on Instagram, they're more depressed because they're isolated socially.

所以，除非有集体禁令，我的意思是，天啊，这些地方会声称这很难做到。

And so unless there's collective bans, unless there's I mean, for god's sakes, these these counties will claim that it's hard.

我最喜欢的是马克·扎克伯格声称他根本不在乎14岁孩子的第一修正案权利。

And my favorite is when Mark Zuckerberg claimed to give a flying fuck about a 14 year old's First Amendment rights.

是的。

Yeah.

我打赌他半夜醒来时，还在想14岁的孩子需要言论自由。

I bet he wakes up at night thinking 14 year olds need free speech.

我的意思是，他真的用这个当借口，说他们担心九年级学生的第一修正案权利。

I mean, he literally used that as an excuse that they were worried about their First Amendment rights in ninth grader.

但除非……我不明白为什么我们不能简单地实行年龄限制。

But unless I I don't see why we have I mean, simple one, age gating.

我觉得这个很快就会实现。

I think that's coming.