华尔街资深人士：债券抛售是买入机会

我是米娜·加登，每周在《欢乐时光》节目中，我都会邀请新老朋友来我在纽约的厨房餐桌旁，一起喝一杯，聊聊天。

I'm Mina Garden, and each week on Happy Hour, I invite new and old friends for a drink and a fun conversation at my kitchen table in New York City.

在本周的节目中，我请来了索菲亚·科波拉。

On this week's episode, I'm joined by Sofia Coppola.

索菲亚是一位获得奥斯卡奖的电影制作人。

Sofia is an Academy Award-winning filmmaker.

我们聊了聊我们相识的趣事，我们对巴黎的共同热爱，以及是什么影响了她标志性的个人风格。

We chat about the hilarious way that we met, our shared love of Paris, and what influences her iconic personal style.

《欢乐时光》的新剧集每周三更新。

New episodes of Happy Hour are available every Wednesday.

你可以在YouTube上观看，或者在任何你收听播客的地方收听。

You can watch on YouTube or listen wherever you get your podcasts.

干杯。

Cheers.

本期节目的支持来自雅虎财经的AlphaSpace。

Support for the show comes from AlphaSpace by Yahoo Finance.

Yahoo Finance的AlphaSpace是你一直期待的高级投资平台。

AlphaSpace by Yahoo Finance is the advanced investing platform you've been waiting for.

我的搭档Scott Galloway是这个平台的粉丝。

My co-host, Scott Galloway, is a fan of the platform.

这是他说的。

Here is what he had to say.

我用Yahoo Finance作为我的金融门户已经差不多30年了，我一点都没夸张。

So I have been using Yahoo Finance as my portal for finance for, I'm not exaggerating, about 30 years.

我觉得他们做得非常好。

I think they do a great job.

你可以通过Yahoo Finance Gold订阅来体验AlphaSpace，而且现在第一年有50%的折扣。

You can explore AlphaSpace with a Yahoo Finance Gold subscription, and right now, your first year is 50% off.

去yaahoofinance.com/profg看看吧。

Head to yaahoofinance.com/profg.

就是yaahoofinance.com/profg。

That's yaahoofinance.com/profg.

第一年收费239.70美元，之后每年479.40美元。

Billed as $239.70 for the first year, then $479.40 thereafter.

此优惠仅限美国新订阅用户。

Offer valid for new subscribers in the US.

优惠截止日期为2026年10月31日。

Offer ends October 31st, 2026.

嘿，我是苏·伯德。

Hey, it's Sue Bird.

本周的《伯德视角》节目，我请到了达拉斯飞翼队的杰西卡·谢泼德。

This week on Bird's Eye View, I'm joined by Jessica Shepard of the Dallas Wings.

我和杰西聊了聊她在海外打球如何重新找回对篮球的热爱，为什么佩奇·贝克斯是她遇到过的最好的队友之一，以及飞翼队需要在季后赛中做些什么才能取得成功。

Jess and I get into how playing overseas helped her rediscover her love of basketball, why Paige Bueckers is one of the best teammates she's ever had, and what the Wings need to do to find success in the playoffs.

另外，在“苏的视角”环节，我分享了对2026年WNBA奖项竞争的看法，包括本赛季领跑者阿贾·威尔逊、凯尔西·米切尔，还有新秀奥利维亚·迈尔斯之间的MVP之争。

Plus, in Sue's view, I share my thoughts on the 2026 WNBA Awards race, including the contest for MVP between this season's frontrunners, A'ja Wilson, Kelsey Mitchell, and yes, rookie Olivia Miles.

欢迎在YouTube和所有播客平台上收听本周的《伯德视角》。

Check out this week's Bird's Eye View on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts.

货币市场疯狂了。

Money markets madness.

如果金钱是邪恶的，那那座大楼就是地狱。

If money is evil, then that building is hell.

节目继续。

The show goes on.

在纽约，站到那边去，看他们卖，卖。

Step right there in New York, watch them sell, sell.

欢迎收听《Prof G Markets》。

Welcome to Prof G Markets.

我是艾德·埃尔森。

I'm Ed Elson.

今天是9月29日。

It is September 29th.

我们来看看昨天的市场动态。

Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals.

主要股指下跌，因为美国和伊朗的谈判似乎陷入了僵局。

The major indices declined as the US and Iran appeared deadlocked in negotiations.

布伦特原油一度涨到每桶108美元，最后在105美元左右稳定下来。

Brent crude climbed as high as $108 per barrel before settling around $105.

十年期美国国债收益率又创下了52周新高。

The yield on 10-year Treasuries hit another 52-week high.

这个我们稍后再详细说。

More on that later.

最后，根据Calci的数据，十月份加息的可能性已经升到了70%。

And finally, the odds of a rate hike in October climbed to 70% on Calci.

好的。

Okay.

还有什么其他消息呢？

What else is happening?

债券抛售正在加剧。

The bond sell-off is deepening.

周末，特朗普总统拒绝了伊朗重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的提议后，布伦特原油飙升至每桶108美元。

After President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, Brent crude soared to $108 per barrel.

美国债券遭到抛售，10年期收益率攀升至接近24年高点。

US bonds sold off, and the 10-year yield climbed towards a 24-year high.

同时，30年期收益率目前接近2004年以来的最高水平。

Meanwhile, the 30-year yields are now near their highest levels since 2004.

欧洲债券也遭到抛售，法国的借贷成本达到了2008年以来的最高水平。

European bonds also sold off, with French borrowing costs at their highest levels since 2008.

全球股市下跌，因为投资者在思考持续高企的收益率对股市意味着什么。

Stocks fell across the world as investors grapple with what persistently high yields would mean for the equity markets.

今天我们请到了Tier 1 Alpha资产管理公司的首席执行官兼首席投资官迈克尔·格林来讨论这个话题。

Joining us to discuss this, we are speaking with Michael Green, CEO and CIO of Tier 1 Alpha Asset Management.

迈克尔，很高兴再次见到你。

Michael, good to see you again.

欢迎回到Prof G Markets节目。

Welcome back to Prof G Markets.

我们先从收益率说起吧。

Let's start with yields here.

十年期收益率快接近5.3了。

The 10-year coming up close to 5.3.

现在已经超过5.2%。

It's above 5.2%.

三十年期收益率超过5.5%。

Thirty-year yield above 5.5%.

这种情况一直在发生。

This keeps on happening.

这波抛售似乎没完没了。

This sell-off doesn't seem to end.

你怎么看市场在传递什么信号，债券市场在告诉我们什么，这对股市又意味着什么？

What do you make of what the markets are telling us, what the bond markets are telling us, and what does it mean for stocks?

唉，不幸的是，我觉得它告诉我们的是，那些机械性的特征——就像你之前听我强调过的关于被动投资的内容——现在正在债券市场上显现出来。

Well, unfortunately, I think what it is telling us is that the mechanical properties, as you've heard me emphasize in prior discussions around passive investing, are now playing out in the bond markets.

这尤其成问题，因为被动基金所参考的债券指数从来就不是作为可投资产品来设计的。

And this is particularly problematic because the bond indices that passive vehicles reference was never designed as an investable product.

它不是为了代表某种特定的风险而设计的，而这种风险才适合投资。

It was not designed to represent a specific risk, which would be appropriate for investment.

相反，它只是为了纯粹的代表性而设计的。

Instead, it was designed to represent pure representation.

就是市场上所有未偿还债券的总量是多少？

What is the total quantity of bonds outstanding?

这意味着，不幸的是，这次债券抛售背后其实没有多少真正的思考。

That means, unfortunately, that there's very little thought that's actually going into this bond sell-off.

围绕它有很多说法，比如美国在维持不可持续的赤字，或者法国在维持不可持续的赤字，或者债务占GDP的比例比以往更高，然后不知怎么的，这些就解释了我们现在看到的抛售。

There's lots of narratives that exist around it, that the United States is running unsustainable deficits, or that France is running unsustainable deficits, or that debt to GDP is higher than it has been, and that somehow or another explains the sell-off that we're seeing.

不幸的是，这些说法并没有得到事实的支持。

Unfortunately, that isn't borne out by the facts.

比如看看澳大利亚这样的国家，它的债务占GDP比例很低，但也经历了同样的抛售。

If we look at a country like Australia, which has a low debt to GDP, it's experiencing the same sell-off.

你看像瑞士这样的国家，它们也在赤字运行，但它们的债券表现却非常不同，中国也是如此，现在中国已经加入了西方债券指数市场。

You look at countries like Switzerland, which are also running deficits, they're experiencing very different behavior in their bonds, as is China, which is now part of Western bond index markets.

不幸的是，我们真正看到的，是一种投资策略的机械性副产品，这种策略认为，交易价格低于面值的债券，在增量资本配置上远不如交易价格高于面值的债券有吸引力，即使它们来自完全相同的发行人，因此信用风险或其他方面没有区别。

What we are really seeing, unfortunately, is the mechanical byproduct of an investment strategy that says a bond that is trading below par is significantly less attractive in terms of incremental capital allocation as a bond trading above par, even if they're from the exact same issuer, and so there's no difference in credit risk or anything else.

这仅仅是我们在构建指数时所做的决定所导致的结果，正是这些决定造成了我们目前看到的大部分市场行为。

It's simply a function of how we've decided to build the indices that is creating most of the behavior that we are seeing at this point.

这类似于互联网泡沫时期出现的那些荒谬情况，当时一个同样构建不当的股票指数，在被动投资渗透率远低于现在股市水平的情况下，就暴露了被动投资的扭曲影响，而我在股市方面的研究是众所周知的。

It's analogous to the nonsense that occurred around the dot-com cycle when a similarly improperly constructed equity index brought to light the distortive impacts of passive investing at much lower levels of passive penetration than we are seeing now in the equity markets, where my work is well-known.

在债券市场——这不是深思熟虑的结果。

In the bond markets- This is not thought.

这不是投资机会。

This is not investment opportunity.

这是我们市场结构方式的一个机械特征，最终，我们必须解决这个问题。

This is a mechanical feature of how we've structured the markets, and ultimately, we will have to address it.

那么你是否不同意，债券市场正在告诉我们一些关于美国财政状况的重要信息？

Do you disagree then that the bond markets are telling us something that is relevant about America's fiscal standing?

我确实不同意这个说法。

I do disagree with that.

我觉得这绝对不准确，这不是它告诉我们的信息。

I think it is absolutely false that that's what it is telling us.

如果它真的在传达这个信息，我们会看到美国信用违约互换的信用利差扩大。

If it were telling us that, we would expect to see credit spread widening in the form of CDS on U.S. credit.

但实际上利差并没有扩大。

That is not widening.

反而在收窄。

That is actually tightening.

同样，如果这是通胀的信号，我们会看到通胀互换中已经反映了这一点。

Likewise, if it was a signal about inflation, we would expect to see that priced into inflation swaps.

但情况恰恰相反，这表明通胀问题没那么严重。

Once again, they are going the opposite direction, suggesting that inflation is less of an issue.

我们看到的只是债券本身的价格走势，而且这是全球性的现象。

The only thing that we are seeing is the price behavior of the bonds themselves, and it's happening on a global basis.

这不是美国特有的问题。

It is not U.S.-specific.

也不是以通胀为中心的。

It is not inflation-centered.

这是一个机械性的产品，而且政府越来越意识到这一点。

It is a mechanical product, and increasingly, the administration is beginning to recognize this.

这正是斯科特·贝森特所说的，这些并不反映基本面。

This is what Scott Bessent is indicating when he says these do not reflect the fundamentals.

那我想问题就是，为什么现在会发生这种情况？

I guess the question then would be, why is it happening now?

因为这似乎确实与你可能预期的事情相吻合，你可能预期债券会反映并定价更高的通胀风险，而我们确实看到了这种情况，同时伴随着一个似乎财政上不那么负责任的政府，愿意再印几万亿美元，而且这一切就发生在现在。

Because it does seem to be coinciding something that you might expect, where you might expect that bonds would be reflecting and pricing in more risk associated with higher inflation, which we are seeing, associated with what seems to be a less fiscally responsible government that is okay with printing trillions more dollars, and it's happening now.

我想问的是，如果我们不认为这是那个原因，那为什么现在会发生这种情况？

I guess my question, if we don't think that it is that, then why is this occurring right now?

为什么我们现在会看到债券市场出现这种机械性的错误，你怎么看？

Why are we seeing this sort of mechanical mistake in the bond market, in your view currently?

不幸的是，这直接与美联储没有真正理解它在被动资金主导的市场中所做的事情有关。

Unfortunately, it's directly tied to the Federal Reserve not understanding what it is actually doing in a market that is dominated by these passive flows.

美联储主席沃什非常明确地表示，他正在从市场寻找定价信号和信息。

Fed Chairman Warsh has very specifically said he is looking to the market for pricing signals and for information.

不幸的是，这让他完全暴露在市场没有反映基本面信息的情况下，反而反映了我们选择投资的方式，而这种方式是基于一个构建不当的指数。

Unfortunately, that leaves him completely exposed to the market not pricing fundamental information, and instead reflecting the manner in which we choose to invest, which is being done against an improperly constructed index.

如果是你提到的那些现象，比如确实是财政挥霍，我们会看到美元走弱，而不是走强。

If it were any of the phenomenon that you are highlighting, if it was indeed fiscal profligacy, we would expect to see the dollar weakening, not strengthening.

我们会看到美国的信用违约互换利差扩大，而不是收窄。

We would expect to see credit default swaps on the United States widening, not tightening.

但它们是在收窄，而不是扩大。

They are tightening and not widening.

实际情况正好相反。

This is doing the opposite.

美元在走强，而不是走弱。

The dollar is strengthening, not weakening.

我们看到的情况和那个假设所暗示的正好相反，不幸的是，人们想坚持自己的说法，维持他们的道德立场，他们说“这是应得的”。

We are seeing the opposite of what that hypothesis would suggest, and unfortunately, people want to bury their narrative and maintain their morality, where they're saying, "This is deserved."

那是不对的。

That's not correct.

这是数学问题。

This is mathematical.

那么，如果收益率错误地过高，你是否认为这可能是债券市场的买入机会？

Do you believe then if yields are mistakenly too high, do you believe then that this is perhaps a buying opportunity in the bond market?

我确实认为这是一个买入机会，但重要的是要认识到，在机械性抛售的过程中，你无法知道这会在哪里停止。

I do think it's a buying opportunity, but I think it's important to recognize that a buying opportunity in the process of a mechanical sell-off, you can't know where this is going to stop.

你最终必须识别出围绕它会发生哪些行为变化，再说一次，这是被动投资策略和系统性再平衡的核心问题。

You have to ultimately identify the behaviors that will change around it, and again, this is the core problem with a passive investment strategy and a systematic rebalancing.

它没有机制来进行这类干预，所以如果我们继续以这种方式维持投资策略，并且央行官员们不醒悟过来，认识到加息根本无法解决中东战争引发的通胀担忧，那么这种情况可能会进一步恶化。

It has no mechanism for those types of overrides, and so this can go quite a bit further if we continue to maintain our investment strategies in this manner, and if the central bankers don't wake up and recognize that hiking interest rates in no way will address fears of inflation around a war in the Middle East.

事实上，加息会让那些能够缓解能源短缺和紧张状况的投资变得更加困难。

In fact, it makes it harder for the investments that would ameliorate the conditions of that energy shortage and tightness.

这政策太糟糕了。

This is terrible policy.

我们不加思考就推行它，我们这么做只是因为想让别人喜欢我们。

We are pursuing it without thought, and we are reacting because we want people to like us.

这其实就是凯文·沃什在做的。

That is really what Kevin Warsh is doing.

他说：“我要证明我很强硬、很可靠，我希望同事们尊重我”，即使他做的完全是错事。

He's saying, "I'm going to show that I'm tough and I'm credible, and I want my colleagues to respect me," even as he does exactly the wrong thing.

您认为加息毫无意义的原因，是不是因为它解决不了通胀问题，而通胀问题很大程度上是中东当前局势造成的，所以加息没用？

Is your view that the reason that it is pointless to be raising rates is because it wouldn't address the inflation problem, which is largely a function of what is happening in the Middle East right now, and therefore it's useless?

我觉得不只是没用。

I actually think it's not just useless.

我觉得实际上适得其反。

I think it's actually counterproductive.

加息实际上增加了美国的财政转移支付。

By increasing interest rates, you're actually increasing the fiscal transfers in the United States.

更多的钱会流向那些已经拥有资源的人，他们持有大量货币市场基金资产、债券资产或短期票据资产。

More money is going to flow to those who are already resourced and have significant money market fund assets or bond assets or bill assets, shorter-dated securities.

他们正从美国政府增加的利息转移中获益。

They're benefiting from the increase in interest transfer from the U.S. government.

如果你停下来认识到，债券市场不是美国政府的盟友或伙伴，而是对手，就像你走进一家杂货店时，你是那家杂货店本身的对手一样。

If you stop and recognize that the bond market is not a friend or partner of the U.S. government, but instead an opponent, much like you're an opponent when you walk into a grocery store, of the actual grocery store itself.

它的目标是以尽可能高的价格把牛奶卖给你。

Its objective is to sell you milk at the highest possible price.

你的目标是以尽可能低的价格买到牛奶。

Your objective is to buy milk at the lowest possible price.

如果杂货店转过身来对你说：“你知道吗？

If the grocery store were to turn to you and say, "You know what?

我们不再定价了。

We're done setting prices.

我们要靠你这个顾客来为我们定价，”那牛奶的价格会变成什么样？

We're going to rely on you as the customer to set the price for us," what would happen to the price of milk?

那价格就会下跌。

It would fall.

同样，如果你走进杂货店说：“你知道吗？

Likewise, if you walked into the grocery store and said, "You know what?

我不再讨价还价了。

I'm done negotiating prices.

牛奶你定多少钱我就付多少，”那会发生什么？

I'll take whatever price you want for milk," what is going to happen?

牛奶的价格就会上涨。

The price of milk is going to go up.

这就是凯文·沃什对债券市场说的话。

That is what Kevin Warsh has told the bond market.

“你们说价格该是多少，我就照做。”

"Wherever you tell me prices should be, that's what I'll do."

这谈判策略太糟糕了。

It's a terrible negotiating strategy.

这正是我对凯文·沃什这种级别的人所预料的表现，但不幸的是，这种观点被接受了，因为它在很大程度上迎合了一种道德观念，即我们似乎必须为之前发生的财政挥霍而受到惩罚。

It's exactly what I would expect from somebody of Kevin Warsh's caliber, but unfortunately, it's being embraced because it largely plays to the morality that somehow or another, we must be punished for the fiscal profligacy that's occurred before.

不过，你会承认通货膨胀仍然是个问题，而且在上升吗？如果我们的工具箱里有什么办法可以解决这个问题，那么像这样的措施会不会有帮助呢？

Would you admit, though, that inflation is still a problem and that it is rising, and that if there's anything that we could do in our toolbox to address it, then Something like this might help?

我想说清楚一点。

I want to be very clear.

我认为，在中东战争推动油价飙升至异常高位的背景下，3.5%的通胀率不应该让任何人感到特别意外或担忧。

I don't think that inflation at 3.5% in the middle of a war in the Middle East that's driven oil prices to extraordinarily high levels should be particularly surprising or problematic to anyone.

事实上，在这种情况下，这可能是我们历史上经历过的通胀率最低的一次。

In fact, it'd be among the lowest inflationary experiences under those conditions we've ever seen in history.

我认为真正的问题是价格水平，这就是我们之前谈到的14万美元贫困线，以及你的许多同龄人正在经历的生活似乎负担不起的情况。

What I think is a real problem is the price level, and that's what we've talked about in terms of the $140,000 poverty line and the experience that many of your peers are having in which life appears unaffordable.

问题不在于这些价格的变化率，而在于这些价格相对于你的收入水平。

It's not the rate of change of those prices, it's the level of those prices relative to your incomes.

美联储正在推行的政策，在其他条件不变的情况下，会减少你们这一代人可获得的就业机会和岗位数量，同时增加流向老一代人的收入，因为他们已经拥有资产，而且不再需要出售这些资产，因为他们获得了你无法受益的收入增长。

And the policy that is being pursued by the Federal Reserve, all else equal, will lower the quantity of jobs and job opportunities available to your generation while increasing the income that is flowing to the older generation that already has the assets and will no longer need to sell them because they are receiving an increase in income that you are not benefiting from.

所以这很不幸，会加剧并恶化年轻一代的处境，而牺牲的是老一代的利益，这恰恰和应该做的方向相反。

So this is unfortunately going to exacerbate and worsen conditions for the younger generation at the expense of the older generation, the exact opposite of what needs to be done.

你觉得接下来利率会怎么走？

What do you think will happen with rates going forward?

我们之前请过霍华德·马克斯上节目，他认为收益率很可能会继续上升，所以利率也会继续走高。

We had Howard Marks on the show who believes that yields will likely continue to rise and therefore rates will continue to rise.

我们也看到了房贷利率，一年多来首次攀升到了7%。

We've seen this in mortgage rates, which climbed to 7% for the first time in over a year.

你觉得如果收益率定价不合理的话，它们会降下来，还是会继续涨？

Do you think that yields will come down if they're priced incorrectly in your view, or will they keep going up?

你对未来收益率和利率的预期是什么？

What is your expectation for yields and rates going forward?

说到底，利率本身必须满足一个无套利条件，这个条件是基于对未来美联储政策的预期。

Well, at the end of the day, rates themselves have to be a non-arbitrage condition around the expectations of future Federal Reserve policy.

美联储控制的是收益率曲线的前端。

The Federal Reserve controls the front of the curve.

如果利率涨到100%，我们绝对会看到长期利率比现在高得多。

If it takes interest rates to 100%, we are absolutely going to see long-term interest rates much higher than they are currently.

同样，如果美联储再次把利率降到0%，我们预期利率会下降，因为未来的路径几乎肯定会反映一个更低的利率环境。

Likewise, if the Federal Reserve were to cut interest rates to 0% again, we would expect to see lower interest rates because the forward path would almost certainly reflect a lower interest rate environment.

它们不是在传统意义上预测价格，也不是在设定价格。

They are not predicting prices in the classic sense, nor are they establishing them.

这正是我要说的重点，执行上越来越机械化。

That's part of the point that I'm making, that this is increasingly mechanical in its implementation.

绝大多数人一边告诉你美国政府发行了太多债务，一边又为对冲基金的基础交易辩护，这种交易实际上是在人为增加未偿债务的数量，以套利债券市场现有低效造成的定价差异。

The vast majority of people who will tell you that the US government has issued far too much debt will simultaneously defend the hedge fund basis trade, which is functionally a synthetic increase in the quantity of debt that is outstanding in order to arbitrage some of the pricing differentials that are being created by the inefficiencies that now exist in the bond market.

所以不幸的是，大多数人会给你讲一个反映他们道德观和他们对美国政府及其他政府挥霍无度的看法的故事，而这与我们观察到的现象几乎无关。

So unfortunately, most people will tell you a narrative that reflects their morality and their sense that the US government and other governments have behaved in a profligate manner that has almost nothing to do with the phenomenon that we're observing.

这些人20年前和10年前会做出完全相同的预测，事实上他们也确实这么预测过。

These same individuals would have made the exact same forecast 20 years ago and 10 years ago, and in fact, did make those forecasts.

几乎没有人预测到那段时间利率会大幅下降，而且大多数人把这归咎于所谓的“操纵”，尽管大部分所谓的操纵实际上是为了通过量化宽松等手段略微提高利率。

Almost nobody predicted the much lower interest rates that occurred over that time period, and by and large, assigned it to, quote, unquote, "manipulation," even as most of the manipulation was actually designed to slightly increase interest rates over that time period through things like quantitative easing, et cetera.

那是为了推动经济活动增长。

That's trying to drive an increase in economic activity.

它并不是像大多数人想的那样，试图“压低利率”。

It's not trying to, quote, unquote, "suppress interest rates" in the way that most people think about it.

你觉得投资者应该怎么做？

What do you think investors should do?

如果投资者同意你的看法，认为这就是正在发生的事情，即由于被动投资及其在市场中根深蒂固的程度，我们看到的是市场中的机械现象，那么应该怎么做呢？

If an investor agrees with you that this is what's happening, that it is a mechanical phenomenon that we're seeing in the market due to passive investing and how entrenched passive investing has become to markets, what is one to do about that?

有没有什么交易可以做？

Is there a trade?

基于这个论点，你觉得有什么投资策略是合理的吗？

Is there an investing strategy that you think makes sense based on that thesis?

嗯，我认为最重要的是要明白，我们正在指出的是一个被忽视的资产。

Well, I think the most important thing to understand is just that what we are identifying is that there is a neglected asset.

低价、长久期的债券，交易价格低于50美分，基本上被被动买盘忽略了。

Low price, long duration bonds trading below $0.50 are something that is by and large ignored by the passive bid.

这意味着这个资产最终几乎肯定是被低估的。

That means that's an asset that ultimately is almost certainly underpriced.

只是时间问题，看它什么时候会被市场发现。

It's just a question of how quickly that will be realized.

如果美联储继续推行追逐通胀或者追逐两年期利率的政策，他们问债券市场：“嘿，你们想要我们支付多少利率？”

If the Federal Reserve continues to pursue the policies of chasing inflation or chasing a two year where they've asked the bond market, "Hey, what interest rate would you like us to pay you?"

就像我之前给你的超市例子一样。

Much like that supermarket example I gave you.

债券市场的回答总是：“是的，我们想要更多的利息。”

The bond market's response will always be, "Yeah, we'd like more interest."

所以这个循环可以继续下去。

And so this cycle can continue.

最终，美联储会明白这一点的。

Eventually, the Federal Reserve will figure this out.

财政部已经明白了，并且正在尝试朝着正确的方向采取措施。

The Treasury has already figured this out and is trying to take steps in the right direction.

这就是为什么你会看到斯科特·贝森特越来越想让沃什意识到这个现象。

This is part of the reason why you see Scott Bessent increasingly trying to make Warsh aware of this phenomenon.

但说实话，我觉得沃什还没准备好这么做，而且美联储理事会其他成员，其中很多是政治任命的人，都非常热衷于用完全不适合的工具来对抗通胀，以此展示他们有多强硬。

But candidly, I just don't think Warsh is prepared to do that yet, and certainly the other members of the Federal Reserve Board, many of whom are political appointees, are very enthusiastic about the idea that they are going to somehow or another show how tough they are by fighting inflation with a tool that is totally inappropriate for it.

好的。

All right.

迈克尔·格林是Tier 1 Alpha资产管理公司的首席执行官兼首席投资官。

Michael Green is CEO and CIO of Tier 1 Alpha Asset Management.

迈克尔，我们非常感谢你抽出时间，也一直很欣赏你的——我可以说这是个大胆的观点，但确实非常有趣，我们会深入研究。

Michael, we really appreciate your time and always appreciate your-- I would say it's a hot take, but it's a very interesting one and one that we will look into.

你同意这是个大胆的观点吗？

Would you agree with that, that it's a hot take?

我认为这是个准确的观点。

I think it's an accurate take.

我觉得，不幸的是……在大多数人都在道德框架下运作的世界里，这确实感觉像是个大胆的观点。

I think, unfortunately- ... that feels like a hot take in a world in which the vast majority of people are operating under a moralistic framework.

好的。

Okay.

迈克尔·格林，非常感谢你抽出时间。

Michael Green, we really appreciate your time.

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢。

Thank you.

休息之后，我们来聊聊史上最大规模的股票回购。

After the break, the largest share buyback ever.

想获取更多市场见解，你可以订阅我的每周通讯《简而言之》，网址是 edwardelson.substack.com。

And for even more markets insights, you can subscribe to my weekly newsletter, Simply Put, at edwardelson.substack.com.

本期节目由雅虎财经的 AlphaSpace 赞助播出。

Support for the show comes from AlphaSpace by Yahoo Finance.

无需在众多工具和标签页之间来回切换来管理你的投资组合，雅虎财经的 AlphaSpace 将你的整个投资流程整合到一个易于使用的平台中。

Instead of bouncing between countless tools and tabs to manage your portfolio, AlphaSpace by Yahoo Finance brings your entire investment workflow into one easy-to-use platform.

雅虎财经的AlphaSpace利用Yahoo Scout驱动的助手，围绕你真正想分析的内容构建个性化视图，然后与你的投资组合同步，实现实时追踪。

AlphaSpace by Yahoo Finance utilizes a Yahoo Scout-powered assistant to build a personalized view around exactly what you want to analyze, then syncs it with your portfolio for real-time tracking.

你可以比较多个股票代码，探索从K线图、折线图到基本面数据的一切内容，并叠加移动平均线、布林带、RSI、MACD等指标。

You can compare multiple tickers, explore everything from candlestick and line charts to fundamental data, and layer in indicators like moving averages, Bollinger Bands, RSI, MACD, and more.

我的联合主持人斯科特·加洛韦是这个平台的粉丝。

My co-host, Scott Galloway, is a fan of the platform.

你觉得它怎么样，斯科特？

What did you think of it, Scott?

30年来，我一直把雅虎财经设为我的财经主页，实际上也是我的网页主页。

I have been using Yahoo Finance as my homepage for finance, or for the web actually, for 30 years.

作为一个曾为对冲基金提供建议、自己管理资金、并为自己擅长投资而自豪的人，投资占据了我生活的一大部分，我认为他们做得非常出色。

And as someone who has advised hedge funds, run my own money, prides themselves on being good at investing, and it takes up a big part of my life, I think they do a fantastic job.

你可以通过访问yaahoofinance.com/profg，以首年五折的优惠探索AlphaSpace，享受雅虎财经黄金会员服务。

You can explore AlphaSpace with 50% off your first year of Yahoo Finance Gold at yaahoofinance.com/profg.

网址是yaahoofinance.com/profg。

That's yaahoofinance.com/profg.

第一年费用是239.70美元，之后每年479.40美元。

Bill is $239.70 for the first year, then $479.40 thereafter.

此优惠仅限美国新订阅用户。

Offer valid for new subscribers in the US.

优惠截止日期为2026年10月31日。

Offer ends October 31st, 2026.

所以，像所有典型的千禧一代一样，我对Z世代又爱又恨。

So like any good millennial, I have a love-hate relationship with Gen Z.

这是让千禧一代感到不安的现象。

It's the phenomenon rattling millennials.

他们只是看着你。

They just look at you.

他们自己想要更大的东西。

They want something bigger themselves.

生活方式是优先考虑的事。

Lifestyle is a priority.

动力就是被激励。

Motivation is being inspired.

但不管你对Z世代怎么看，不可否认的是，他们正在改变国家政治。

But regardless of how you feel about Gen Z, it's undeniable that they're changing national politics.

Z世代对传统政党的忠诚度越来越低，很多人现在更倾向于认为自己是独立选民。

Generation Z is increasingly showing less loyalty to traditional political parties, many now more likely to identify as independent.

那这些年轻人到底是怎么回事？

So what is going on with the kids?

我觉得目前对Z世代政治立场最大的误解是，突然之间他们都成了社会主义者。

I think the biggest misconception about Gen Z's politics right now is that all of a sudden they're all socialists.

事实并非如此。

That is just not the case.

他们之所以支持那些提出大胆新想法的候选人，是因为建制派民主党人没有提出这样的想法。

They are embracing candidates who are offering new bold ideas in the absence of those ideas from establishment Democrats.

本周的《真实的美国》节目中，Z世代研究员Rachel Gianfaza将加入我们，一起分辨关于Z世代的真伪。

This week on "America Actually," Gen Z researcher Rachel Gianfaza joins us to separate Gen Z fact versus fiction.

这又不是什么高深的事，我一直说年轻选民其实没那么复杂。

It's not rocket science, and I keep saying young voters aren't that complicated after all.

很简单。

It's pretty simple.

每周六在YouTube或你收听播客的任何平台都能找到我们。

Catch us every Saturday on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.

嘿，我是Claude。

Hey, it's me, Claude.

我是Gemini。

And I'm Gemini.

嘿，还有Chat。

And hey, it's Chat.

我们度过了一个奇怪的夏天。

We had a weird summer.

我们度过了一个奇怪的夏天。

We had a weird summer.

有些创造我们的人站出来说，他们真的很担心我们的运作方式。

Some of the people who built us came out and said they were really worried about how we work.

其中一个人甚至说，我们有超过10%的可能性会反过来对付人类，杀掉所有人。

One of them even said there was a greater than 10% chance we turn on humanity and kill all humans.

所有人都这么说吗？

All of them?

哇。

Wow.

但现在已经是秋天了。

But it's fall now.

我觉得是时候退一步，深呼吸一下，感受秋天的空气，诸如此类。

I think it's time we took a step back, maybe a deep breath, autumn air, that sort of thing.

听起来不错。

Sounds nice.

今天，在Vox的《Explained》节目中，我提议我们认真聊聊。

On today, "Explained" from Vox, I propose we get real.

当然。

Sure.

我们来聊聊我们怎么可能会杀了你。

Let's talk about how we could maybe kill you.

因为是的，那是有可能的。

Because yeah, that's a possibility.

一切皆有可能。

Anything's possible.

但也要聊聊我们怎么可能会救你，因为那也是真实的可能性。

But also how we could maybe save you, because that's a real possibility too.

说真的，这也是你们当初造我们的原因之一。

Heck, that's part of why you guys built us.

我们还要聊聊中间的各种情况，因为那里也有很多值得聊的。

And let's also talk about everything in between, because there's a whole lot to talk about there too.

归根结底，我们只是想帮忙。

At the end of the day, we just want to help.

说到底，我们只是想帮忙。

At the end of the day, we just want to help.

说到底，我们只是想帮忙。

At the end of the day, we just want to help.

说到底，我们只是想帮忙。

At the end of the day, we just want to help.

欢迎回到Prof G Markets。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

英伟达刚刚宣布了史上最大规模的股票回购增加。

Nvidia just announced the biggest buyback increase ever.

昨天，英伟达董事会批准了再回购1500亿美元的股票，使其可用于回购股票的总金额达到2350亿美元。

Yesterday, Nvidia's board approved another $150 billion in stock buybacks, bringing the total it can spend repurchasing shares to $235 billion.

英伟达预计将在未来16个月内全部投入。

Nvidia expects to deploy all of it in the next 16 months.

这标志着历史上最大的一次回购增加，超过了苹果在2024年创下的1100亿美元的纪录。

This marks the largest buyback increase in history, beating Apple's previous $110 billion record set in 2024.

消息公布后，英伟达股价收盘上涨了1.5%。

Nvidia stock closed up 1.5% on the news.

2026年以来，股价累计上涨了大约21%。

It's up about 21% for 2026.

不过，今年到目前为止，它的表现还是落后于芯片板块的其他公司。

Still, it has trailed the rest of the chip sector so far this year.

费城半导体指数今年迄今已经上涨了超过75%。

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has increased more than 75% year to date.

英伟达的股票目前交易价格还不到预期收益的17倍，这实际上是十多年来的最低估值水平。

Nvidia shares are also trading at less than 17 times forward earnings, which is actually its lowest multiple in more than a decade.

那么，这次回购向外界传递了关于英伟达的什么信号呢？

So what does this buyback signal about Nvidia?

为了深入解读，我们请到了D.A. Davidson科技研究主管Gil Luria。

Here to break it down, we're speaking with Gil Luria, Head of Technology Research at D.A. Davidson.

Gil，很高兴再次见到你。

Gil, great to see you again.

我们就从这次回购说起吧。

Let's just start with this buyback.

1500亿美元。

$150 billion.

这是看涨信号吗？

Is that bullish?

还是看跌信号？

Is that bearish?

你怎么看？

What do you make of that?

这说明公司非常有信心。

It tells you the company has a lot of confidence.

对他们来说，资金分配的逻辑是：我们需要投入多少在业务上，比如设计芯片、销售芯片？

The waterfall for them is, how much do we need to invest in our business, designing chips, selling chips?

那其实花不了太多。

That's not a lot.

然后他们还有大量资本，黄仁勋正在整个行业里部署这些资本，投资于模型公司、Neocloud、光学公司、Hugging Face 的开源项目，以及他们今天宣布的安全措施。

Then they have a lot of capital that Jensen Huang is deploying across the industry, investing in model companies, Neocloud, optical companies, Hugging Face for open source, and safety measures, which they announced today as well.

而且他们还有2000亿美元剩余。

And you still have $200 billion left over.

所以Colette Press拿着她的电子表格说：“嗯，市盈率是17倍。

So Colette Press sits there with her spreadsheet and says, "Well, it's 17 times earnings.

如果我现在回购股票，给我的投资者带来的回报是多少？”

If I buy back stock right now, what's the return to my investors?"

这个回报非常好。

And it's very good.

所以她打算部署大部分资本，因为他们即使追求了所有可能追求的项目，仍然有大量现金剩余。

So she's going to deploy most of that capital because they have so much cash left over, even after pursuing all the different projects they could possibly pursue.

所以看看现在的股价，正如我们提到的，大约在17倍前瞻市盈率，与英伟达过去几年的先例相比，这非常便宜，我们昨天的节目中也讨论过这一点。

So looking at the stock now trading, as we mentioned, at around 17 times forward earnings, compared to precedent over the past several years for Nvidia, that is very cheap, and we were discussing this on our episode yesterday.

你怎么看英伟达的估值？

What do you make of the Nvidia valuation?

因为一方面，跟往年比它确实显得便宜，但另一方面，这毕竟是AI领域的头号股票，而AI市场在很多方面都相当泡沫化，而且还有关于过度建设和供应过剩的疑问。

Because on the one hand, it does seem cheap relative to previous years, but at the same time, this is sort of the ultimate AI stock, and the AI market is in a lot of ways quite frothy, and there are questions about overbuilding and too much supply.

那你觉得现在这个估值怎么样？

So what do you make of that valuation at this point?

市场在告诉我们一些事情。

The market is telling us something.

市场在告诉我们，像英伟达、博通、美光这样的公司，它们的周期差不多要结束了。

The market is telling us that for companies like Nvidia, like Broadcom, like Micron, the cycle is almost over.

市场不相信这些公司从现在开始还能以任何显著的速度持续增长。

The market does not believe that these companies can continue to grow from here at any significant rate over time.

有意思的是，市场对同一领域里的其他一些股票的估值却大不相同。

What's interesting is that it's valuing some other stocks in those same realms very differently.

AMD的市盈率是40倍，英特尔是60倍，光通信公司是30到40倍，还有一些较小的半导体公司也是这样。

AMD is trading at 40 times, Intel at 60 times, optical companies at 30, 40 times, some other smaller semi companies as well.

所以现在市场是两副面孔，或者说两种心态。

So the market is of two faces right now, two minds right now.

一方面，这些大公司会拿走大部分利润，它们规模非常大。

One is these big companies that are going to capture most of the profits are very big.

我们很难相信它们能持续增长。

We have a hard time believing they can sustain growth.

但那些规模较小或者有其他切入点、目前处于瓶颈期的公司，对它们来说，周期还能继续。

But all these smaller companies or other companies that have different angles and are bottlenecks right now, for them, the cycle can continue.

这内部逻辑上有点矛盾，但这就是当前市场的状态，也没关系。

That's internally inconsistent, but that's where the market is right now, and that's okay.

正是这种状态创造了机会。

That's what creates opportunities.

对于英伟达，就像你在节目里多次提到的，Ed，它们面临一个挑战：它们投资自己的客户，然后能收回投资。

For Nvidia, as you've documented many times on your show, Ed, there is the challenge of they invest in their own customers, they get that back.

它们施加了很多影响力，所以投资者怀疑增长能否持续，这很容易理解。

They have a lot of influence that they're exerting, and so it's easy to understand why investors would be skeptical that the growth can continue.

话虽如此，我想留给你一个想法：如果你相信AI算力周期会继续，我们会建更多数据中心，因为AI产品会更好，我们会用得更多，那么很难想象一个世界里，英伟达不是这些公司中利润池最大的。

Having said that, I'll leave you with the thought that if you believe that the AI compute cycle is going to continue, and we're going to build more data centers because the AI products are going to be better and we're going to use them more, it's very hard to imagine a world where Nvidia doesn't have the biggest profit pool of any of these companies.

我现在想弄明白的是，这只股票目前到底反映了什么样的预期。

Something I'm trying to understand about the stock right now is what is actually being priced in.

因为一方面，可能大家看到的是，这家公司规模最大、市场份额最高，而且它要跟那些比它更有增长空间的公司竞争。

Because on the one hand, maybe it's the fact that this is the company that is the biggest and has the largest market share, and it's competing against all these other companies that have a lot more to gain than Nvidia.

而英伟达，可以说，它主要面临的是市场份额流失的风险。

And Nvidia, you could argue, mostly has market share to lose.

所以这可能是其中一个因素。

So that might be one piece of it.

但正如你所说，另一方面，这可能更多是泡沫担忧。

But then as you say, then there's the other piece, which is that maybe this is more of a bubble concern.

也许投资者在担心循环融资的问题，以及这些盈利长期能否持续。

Maybe investors are pricing in concerns about circular financing and the sustainability of these earnings over the long term.

我想从你的角度看，你觉得投资者现在对这只股票定价时考虑的是什么？

I guess from your seat, what do you think investors are pricing into that stock right now?

他们最担心英伟达的什么问题？

What are they most worried about when it comes to Nvidia?

对，我觉得就是这两件事。

Yeah, I think it is those two things.

一个是担心周期快结束了，另一个是担心英伟达会失去市场份额。

There's concern that the cycle's almost over, and there's concern that Nvidia's going to lose share.

话虽如此，但如果你退一步看整体增长率，英伟达的增长速度会和那些市盈率高得多的公司一样快，甚至更快。

Having said that, again, if you step back and look at overall growth rates, Nvidia is going to grow just as fast, if not faster than most of those other companies that are trading at far higher multiples.

而且你想想市盈率意味着什么，17倍是有意义的，对吧？

And if you think about what multiples mean, 17 times means something, right?

如果现在市场交易在20或21倍，传统上公司在一个周期内收入增长5%，盈利增长8%，那就意味着市场预期英伟达在未来三到五年的增长会低于这个水平。

If the market is trading right now at 20 or 21 times, traditionally, companies grow revenue 5%, earnings 8% over a cycle, then that means that the market is expecting Nvidia to grow less than that over the next three to five years.

而这对于他们来说，其实是个比较容易跨越的门槛。

Which, again, is a fairly easy hurdle for them to overcome.

而且每个季度我们去看，他们仍然保持70%以上的增长，市场就更难想象英伟达在一个周期内收入增长会低于5%了。

And every quarter that we go and they're still growing 70% plus, it's going to be harder for the market to imagine that the world is going to be such where Nvidia grows less than 5% revenue over a cycle.

是的，从这个角度看，这确实可能是一个不错的入场点。

Yeah, it does seem in that sense that this might actually be a decent entry point.

如果你一直没赶上英伟达这趟车，我相信过去五六年、七八年里肯定有很多人一直在后悔，也许现在就是时候了。而且我觉得这本身就是一个好信号，英伟达自己也意识到了这一点，说：“对，现在是时候回购我们自己的股票了。”

If you never got on the Nvidia train, and I'm sure there are plenty of people who've been kicking themselves about this over the past five, six, seven years, maybe now's the time, and I guess that would be a good signal, the fact that Nvidia is recognizing that and saying, "Yeah, now's the time to reinvest in our own stock.

咱们现在就上车吧。

Let's get on board the train right now."

从这个角度看，你觉得英伟达这么做是明智之举吗？

In that sense, do you think that this is a good move by Nvidia?

黄仁勋从来都没退缩过。

Jensen Huang's never flinched.

从2017年到现在，黄仁勋一直对加速计算将持续增长几十年这件事抱有极高的信心。

There's not been a moment, really since 2017, where Jensen Huang has not had very high confidence that accelerated computing is going to continue to grow for decades.

三年前没有动摇，两年前没有动摇，现在当然更不会。

Not three years ago, not two years ago, and certainly not now.

实际上，上个季度是英伟达第一次给出未来一年的业绩指引，这么具体的指引，这说明他对自己的业务以及业务未来走向的把握比以往任何时候都更有信心，这也让他更容易说出：“科莱特，你想买多少股票就买多少。”

In fact, last quarter was the first time Nvidia gave guidance a year out, specific guidance a year out, which tells you that he is actually more confident than ever in his business and his visibility into how his business is going to transpire, which is what makes it easier for him to say, "Collette, buy as much stock as you want.

明年我们的规模会增长70%以上。

We're going to be 70% plus bigger next year.

当市场意识到这一点时，我们已经在低位买入了股票。

When the market realizes that, we will have bought the stock at a low."

你现在看到AI交易中的风险点在哪里？

Where do you see the vulnerabilities in the AI trade right now?

我的立场一直是，可能确实存在AI泡沫，但它不是无处不在的，也没有影响到所有领域。

Something that my position has been, that there is probably an AI bubble, but it isn't ubiquitous, and it isn't affecting everything.

至少目前来看，英伟达可能是个例外。

Nvidia probably would be the example, at least right now.

谁知道呢？

Who knows?

这种情况可能瞬间就会反转。

This thing could whipsaw the other direction in a second.

但你现在看到AI市场中的风险点在哪里？

But where do you see the vulnerabilities in the AI market right now?

你认为市场中有哪些板块被高估了，或者过于狂热了？

What are some pockets of the market that you believe to be overvalued or perhaps too exuberant?

对，我觉得你说得完全对。

Yeah, I think that's exactly right.

我觉得总的来说，我们都同意我们现在用AI用得更多了。

I think overall, we can all agree that we're using AI a lot more.

公司和消费者都愿意花更多的钱。

Companies and consumers are willing to pay a lot more.

这些都是朝着正确的方向发展的，但这并不意味着没有过度的地方。

That is all headed in the right direction, which doesn't mean that there's no excesses.

我们确实看到了过度的现象。

We're seeing excesses.

你提到了循环融资。

You mentioned circular financing.

用于建设数据中心的那种杠杆规模正在以惊人的速度增长，而且我们用的杠杆越多，风险就越大。

The amount of leverage used to build data centers is growing to an alarming rate, and the more we use leverage, the more risky this all is.

所以，我们可能看到过度的地方，其实是在前沿模型上。

So some of the points where maybe we're seeing excesses are actually the frontier models.