人工智能恐慌中的误解

所有的汽车都实现了自动驾驶，因为有了机器人配送司机。

All the cars are autonomous because of a robotic delivery driver.

这条评论在YouTube上很受欢迎。

This was a popular comment on the YouTube.

我只是想看看你们对此有什么想法或回应。

I just wanna see if you have any thoughts or responses to that.

我认为这条评论反映了人们对经济现状的不满——太少人享受到了经济成果。

I think that comment is a function of dissatisfaction with our economy where too few people are enjoying the spoils.

我甚至不认为这完全是技术的问题，而是我们不愿承认的事实：我们一直选举出这样的人。

And I don't even think there's some of that as a function of technology, but what we hate to admit is we keep voting in people.

你知道，伯尼、桑德斯参议员和沃伦参议员在参议院里抱怨不平等问题已经三十年了，即使在他们掌控国会三院的时候也是如此。

You know, Bernie and senator Sanders and senator Warren have been bitching and moaning about inequality for thirty years while they've been in the senate, including when they controlled all three houses.

我们有意选择了收入不平等，无论是民主党还是共和党。

We have purposely chosen, Democrats and Republicans, income inequality.

所以，是的，技术在其中确实起到了一定作用。

So, yeah, technology has been played a part in it.

但要明确的是，我们有意选择了美国的收入不平等，因为我们所有人都相信，总有一天自己会成为百万富翁，然后等着看当我们跻身前1%时，会如何对待底层的99%。

But be clear, we have decided we want income inequality in The US because we all believe at some point that we'll be a millionaire and just wait to see how we treat the bottom 99% when we're in the top 1%.

现在这是否已经到了一个临界点？基尼系数已经和法国大革命时期的法国持平了？

Now is that a breaking point where it's the same the Gini coefficient is at the same levels of France during the French Revolution?

绝对是的。

Absolutely.

但乔什说的那番话真正触动了我——你需要问问自己，什么事情可能会变好。

But the what Josh has said that really struck me, you need to ask yourself what could go right.

我非常喜欢这一点。

I love that.

那么你的孩子将来打算做什么？

So what does your kid do?

首先，关于你大学学位不值钱这种说法，他实际上是在说，像斯特恩学院或弗吉尼亚大学这样的学位，不值三五十万美元。

First off, in terms of this narrative that your college degree isn't worth that's effectively, what he's saying is that the college degree at Stern or at UVA is not worth 3 to $500,000.

好吧。

Okay.

我从理论上明白，但你猜怎么着？

I get it in theory, but guess what?

今年申请法学院的人数达到了历史最高水平。

Applications hit record highs this year to law school.

如果有一个地方，人们本不该申请学校，或者应该没有定价权，那一定是法学院。

If there's a place you would think people would not be applying to school or would have no pricing power, you would think it'd be law schools.

但并没有这样的迹象。

No evidence of that.

人们仍在加倍投入法学院。

People are still doubling down on on law school.

我认为，这很可能是因为情商和成为一个全面发展的人，能比其他任何事情更好地让你抵御来自这项技术或其他技术的任何变化。

I would argue that probably it's because EQ and being a well rounded person better immunizes you against whatever change comes down from this technology or others than any than anything else you can do.

此外，当人们问我，我在英国演讲时有什么不同？

In addition, when people ask me what's the difference when I speak here in The UK?

英国和美国之间有什么区别？

What's the difference between The UK and The US?

我说的也是同样的事。

I say the same thing.

是你们留了下来。

You're the ones that stayed.

风险这个词定义了我们的成功。

The word risk defines our success.

我们更愿意在资本上承担风险。

We're more willing to take risks on capital.

我们更愿意去创办那些疯狂又愚蠢的生意。

We're more willing to start crazy stupid businesses.

人们对自己资金的使用更加随意，想着也许有一天我投资的会是下一个谷歌。

People are much more promiscuous with their own capital, thinking maybe someday I'll I'm investing in the right Google.

人们在风险承担上更加激进，宁愿放弃一份好工作，搬到旧金山，拿更低的薪水，换取初创公司的更多股权。

People are much, much more risk aggressive giving up a good job and moving to San Francisco and taking a lower salary and more equity in a start up.

就风险而言，2004年——没多久以前——新的商业许可或新企业申请数量是15万份。

And just along the lines of risk, the number of new business permits or new business applications in 2004, not that long ago, was a 150,000 new business applications.

今年或去年，这个数字达到了五十万。

This year or last year, it was half a million.

决定尝试创业的人数增加了三倍。

Triple the number of people have decided to try and start their businesses.

其中一部分原因可能是他们对职场感到厌倦，或者别无选择，但不管怎样，如此多的人开始创业，这确实令人震惊。

Some of that might be because they're fed up in the corporate world or they don't have any choice, but whatever it is, it's it's just striking how many people are starting businesses.

我1992年2月从商学院毕业时，整个班级只有两位创业者，而我的联合创始人就是第二位。

When I graduated from business school in 02/1992, there were only two entrepreneurs in my entire class, and my cofounder was the second.

当时根本没人创业。

There were no one was starting businesses.

当然，作为乐观主义者，这里确实有充分的理由相信事情会向好的方向发展。

I you know, just to be the optimist here, there is a really solid case here around what could go right.

美国的冒险精神和对技术的理解，使得每一项技术革新在中长期都创造了更多的就业机会。

The American ethos of risk taking and understanding of technology, every innovation in technology has over the medium and the long term created more jobs.

市场会通过良好的政府政策作出回应。

The market responds with good government policy.

它试图填补这些空白。

It tries to fill in the gaps.

不幸的是，这里的状况在美国可能更严重。

Unfortunately, the v might be more severe here in America.

我们在照顾那些在这场贸易中处于不利地位的人或为他们提供再培训方面做得不好。

We are not good at taking care of the people or retraining them who are on the wrong side of this trade.

但我不想听起来太像一个，我不知道，盲目乐观的人。

But not to sound too much like a, I don't know, a Pollyanna here.

我觉得现在大学毕业、寻找不同机会是个非常有趣的时期。

I think it's a pretty interesting time to be coming out of college and looking at different opportunities.

如果埃德·埃利森从普林斯顿毕业，你有两个联合创始人，当然，你是白人，有特权，还带点傲慢。

If Ed Ellison was coming out of Princeton and you had two cofounders, now granted you're white and privileged and a little bit snooty.

但好吧，如果你从俄亥俄州立大学或密歇根州立大学毕业，这两所都是很好的学校，你擅长利用人工智能，打算创办一家帮助人们为父母或祖父母寻找合适养老机构的公司，收费200美元，而不是顾问收的5000美元，并用AI代理谈判出最佳方案。

But, okay, you come out of Ohio State or you come out of Michigan State, which are both really good schools, and you you are outstanding at leveraging AI, and you're gonna start a seniors you know, some sort of you're gonna help people find the right seniors facility for pop up or Nana, and you're gonna charge them $200 instead of the consultants charge 5,000, and then you're gonna negotiate using AI agents the best deal possible.

我觉得这真是一个很酷的小点子。

I think that's a really cool little bit.

我刚刚只是随口编的，你知道的，花了三十秒。

I just made that up in, you know, thirty seconds.

我觉得这是一个非常棒的小生意，人们将会填补各种细分领域，能够找到资金，做真正酷炫有趣的创业。

I think it's a really cool little business, and people are gonna fill all sorts of niches and be able to find capital and not you know, and do really cool interesting businesses.

如果我现在刚毕业，我会说，我想学习人工智能，我想了解医疗健康，我想在这两个领域之间开辟一条路。

If I was coming out of school right now, I'd be saying, I'd wanna learn AI, and I'd wanna understand health care, and I'd wanna I'd wanna cut a swath through the middle of those two things.

总之，我啰嗦了一大堆，想说的是，我觉得这很重要。

Anyways, long winded way of saying, I think it's important

要问什么可能会成功。

to ask what could go right.

我觉得现在很多人感受到一种巨大的认知失调，因为正如你所说，可能成功的理由实际上非常非常有力。

I think the the thing that a lot of people are feeling right now is there's this incredible cognitive dissonance because the argument for what could go right, as you say, is actually very, very strong.

我们已经从你那里、从我这里，以及从许多其他人那里听到了这些观点。

And we've heard it from you, we've heard it from me, and we've heard it from many others.

但与此同时，可能出错的理由也同样很强，因为这项技术极其强大，而我们还不知道会发生什么。

At the same time, the argument for what could go wrong is also quite strong because this technology is incredibly powerful, and we don't know what's going to happen.

我们正处在一个极其不确定的时期，无论持哪一方立场，都是很有道理的。

We are at such a time of incredible uncertainty that having a position on either side, both of them are very reasonable.

这就是为什么我认为，很多人现在听我们说话时，会觉得我们前后矛盾。

And that's why I think a lot of people would maybe listen to us right now and say, oh, they're talking out of both sides of their mouth.

是的，因为这里有不同的未来，而这些不同未来发生的概率也各不相同。

It's like, yeah, because there are different futures here, and there are different probabilities to those different futures.

而我们现在正试图厘清这一点。

And it's that's what we're trying to parse out right now.

它成功的概率有多大？

What is the probability of it going right?

它失败的概率有多大？

What is what's the probability of it going wrong?

这两种可能性都相当高。

They're both decent probabilities.

现在，我想为这一点补充一个框架：我认为，未来投资者的职责是追问：什么可能会成功？

Now a framework that I would add on to this, I think, going forward, I think it is the investor's job to ask what could go right.

因为正如你所说，如果你是个投资者，整天只想着可能发生什么坏事，那你肯定会彻底失败。

Because as you say, if you are an investor and you spend all your time thinking what could go wrong, you're going to get absolutely destroyed.

如果你从不投入资本，从不承担风险，总认为明天就是末日，那你永远不可能致富。

If you never put your capital to work, if you never take risks, if you always think that tomorrow's gonna be doomsday, you're just never gonna get rich.

这就是现实。

That's just the reality.

所以我们才提出这个问题。

So that's why we're asking this question.

这是一档投资节目。

This is an investing show.

这是一档市场节目。

This is a market show.

如果你想有机会致富，很抱歉，你必须问自己：可能发生什么好事？

If you want a chance of getting rich, sorry, you must ask yourself what could go right.

你别无选择。

You have no other choice.

如果你只想坐着不动，不增加收入，也不增加资产，那好吧，你就尽管去一直问什么会出错吧。

If you wanna just sit and stay you know, never increase your income, never increase your assets, then, okay, go for it and just always ask what could go wrong.

话虽如此，我也认为政府有责任去问什么会出错。

Having said that, I also think that it is the government's job to ask what could go wrong.

监管者的职责就是提出这个问题。

It's the regulator's job to be asking that question.

人工智能会对工作岗位替代造成什么影响？

What could AI do to job displacement?

它理论上能消除多少个工作岗位？

How many jobs could it theoretically get rid of?

如果真的发生了，我们该如何应对？

If that happens, what is going to be our response to that?

我们该如何监管这项技术，以避免陷入经济灾难？

How do we regulate this technology such that we don't walk into an economic disaster?

我现在注意到的是，投资者目前似乎沉迷于‘什么会出错’这个问题，这其实是个错误的想法，而政府却似乎沉迷于‘什么会成功’这个问题。

And the thing that I am noticing right now is that the investors right now seem to be obsessed with the question of what could go wrong, which is a bad idea, and the government seems to be obsessed with the question of what could go right.

政府似乎认为一切都会好起来。

The government seems to think everything's gonna be fine.

别担心。

Don't worry about it.

别插手。

Hands off.

一切都会很棒。

Everything's gonna be great.

我们甚至不会制定任何政策。

We're not even gonna include any policies.

事实上，我们会制定政策，确保其他人也无法制定任何政策。

In fact, we're gonna create policies that make sure that no one else creates any policies.

这是一个非常、非常愚蠢的想法，因为我们应该提出这个问题。

And that is a very, very stupid idea because we should be asking that question.

这是一种合理的可能性。

It is a legitimate possibility.

我们应该考虑像全民基本收入这样的事情。

We should be thinking about things like UBI.

我们应该考虑建立工人再投资基金。

We should be thinking about a worker reinvestment fund.

我们应该思考，如果失业率真的达到10%会怎样，而不是从投资者的角度来看。

We should be thinking about what would happen if the unemployment rate actually was 10%, not if you're an investor.

我认为假设这种情况并不明智。

I don't think that's a very wise move to assume that.

但如果你身在政府，或者你是监管者，我认为这些假设是合理的。

But if you're in government, if you're a regulator, I think these are good things to assume.

你应该偏向于谨慎行事。

You should be erring on the side of caution.

而我们在政府中看到的完全不是这样。

And what we're seeing in government is not that at all.

我们正在讨论这个问题这一事实，让我相信事情不会像预期的那样发展。

The fact that we're talking about this means convinces me this is not gonna happen as it's played out.

是的。

Yeah.

因为真正击垮你的，往往是那些你没料到的事情。

Because it's the shit you're not expecting that gets you.

除了极少数非常聪明的情报分析师，没人会想到，一群年轻的沙特男子会劫持飞机并撞向大楼。

Very few people other than a really intelligent CI analyst was thinking, oh, a bunch of young men from Saudi Arabia are gonna hijack planes and slam them into buildings.

这根本不是我们担心的事情。

That just wasn't something we were worried about.

它曾短暂地摧毁了经济。

That took down the economy for a brief time.

次贷危机，迈克尔·伯里看出来了，但很少有人注意到，包括世界上最有智慧的金融人士，他们层层加码，而所有他们的风险模型都没能预警这一点。

The subprime crisis, you know, Michael Burry saw it, but not many people saw that, including the smartest financial people in the world were layering on layering, and all their risk models did not turn this up.

我们没料到病毒会让经济停摆，使GDP下降31%。

We did not see a virus shutting down the economy and taking GDP down 31%.

真正危险的，就是那些你根本没担心过的事情。

It's the shit you're not worried about.

你太年轻了，不记得这件事了。

Do you're you're too young to remember this.

我们花了一年时间沉迷于希腊主权债券。

We spent a year masturbating over Greek sovereign bonds.

我们坚信希腊会拖垮欧盟和全球经济。

We were convinced that Greece was gonna take down the EU and the global economy.

你知道的，希腊只占欧洲GDP的2%，可我们却在这里 obsessively 关注它。

You know, 2% of the GDP of Europe, and we just sat here obsessing over it.

当你过度担心某件事时，它反而不会发生，因为你已经开始为此做准备了。

There's a phenomena when you worry about something a lot, it doesn't happen because you start to prepare for it.

所以，仅仅因为我们对这件事进行了大量灾难化想象，反而不再担心它了。

So I I just don't think by virtue of the fact that we've done so much catastrophizing around this, we don't worry about it.

目前市场上真正更大的问题是以下这一点。

The thing that is actually a bigger issue in the markets right now is the following.

人工智能、资本支出，以及围绕AI的巨大机遇和热情——我认为这些可能也被过度炒作了一样——已经创造了真实的经济增长、资本支出，并提振了市场。

AI and the CapEx and the incredible opportunity of AI and excitement around these things, which I think is probably overhyped as well to the upside, has created real economic growth, CapEx, and buoyed the market.

对吧？

Right?

但一种僵化的产业政策，让欧洲显得更有竞争力、更果断，政府直接对Anthropic说：你必须按我们的要求做。

But a sclerotic industrial policy that makes Europe look more competitive and more decisive, where we have an administration saying, anthropic, you gotta do what we want.

即使你是一家私营公司，你也必须按我们的要求做。

Even though you're a private company, you've gotta do what we want.

我们并没有制定关于企业行为规范的法律。

We're not putting in place laws around guardrails around how companies should behave.

我们只是根据这人的血糖水平随意做些临时决定。

We're just gonna do one offs based on this guy's blood sugar level.

哦，政府将决定谁可以收购谁。

Oh, the administration is gonna get to decide who gets to acquire whom.

哦，我们只对一家芯片公司投资，而不投资其他公司。

And, oh, we're taking a stake in one chip company and not others.

哦，我们懂得怎么经营一家钢铁公司。

Oh, we know how to run a steel company.

当最深的资本池因外国投资者不知道下次会醒过来面对谁而变浅，因为他们可能面临不同的法规。

When the deepest pools of capital become more shallow because foreign investors don't know who the fuck they're waking up to next because there's different laws that might be imposed on them.

发生了什么？

What has happened?

在过去十二个月里，尽管这些科技公司获得了巨额投资和成功，美国市场却表现逊于所有主要市场。

In the last twelve months, despite the massive investment and success of these tech companies, the American market has underperformed every major market.

为什么？

Why?

因为美元大幅走弱，人们对美国政府的全额信用和偿债能力失去了信心，原因在于财政上的不负责任。

Because the dollar's gotten much weaker because people have less faith in the full credit and faith of the United States government, our ability to pay back its debts because of fiscal irresponsibility.

整个世界都在绕开我们重新布局供应链，包括对这些公司的资本投资。

And the entire world is rerouting their supply chain around us, including the capital they invest in these companies.

人们过去愿意向美国投入如此多资本的原因之一，是因为存在公平竞争的规则，而我们已经失去了它。

And one of the reasons that people were willing to invest so much capital in The US is because there was a rule of fair play, and we have lost that.

人们正在撤出美国股票。

And people are rotating out of US stocks.

在我看来，当我们决定凭借占全球三分之一GDP的体量就能掌控它时，这才是对我们经济更大的威胁。

That is a, in my opinion, a much bigger threat to our economy when we have decided that with a third of the world's GDP, we can control it.

过去，我们通过合作、法治和标准的一致性成为操作系统，主导了全球三分之二的经济，人人都想在美国投资。

Whereas we used to be the operating system through cooperation rule of law and standards and consistency, where we were the operating system for two thirds of the world's economy, and everybody wanted to invest in The US.

你觉得加拿大大型养老基金现在会考虑如何增加对美国的投资吗？

Do you think big Canadian pension funds are thinking how do we invest more in The US right now?

去你的。

Fuck you.

我会投资阿里巴巴，或者Mistral，或者德国的Salonis，随便哪个都行。

I'll invest in Alibaba or I'll invest in Mistral or whatever it is or Salonis in Germany.

他们会觉得：我们得远离这个混蛋。

They're like, we need to diversify away from this asshole.

你正看到这种趋势反映在我们市场的估值上。

And you're seeing that show up in our valuations in our market.

在我看来，这才是对我们繁荣衰退的根本威胁：当人们禁止或停止购买我们的产品时，产品价格会上涨，我们的出口市场会萎缩。

That is a in my view, that is the existential threat here to a decline in our prosperity is the price of products go up when people either ban our products or stop buying our products, shrinking our markets for exports.

他们实施对等关税。

They impose reciprocal tariffs.

人才不再来这里，这降低了我们团队的质量。

Human capital stops coming here, which reduces our the quality of our teams.

机构也不愿投资我们在这里做的所有事情，压低了我们所有资产的市盈率，提高了我们的资本成本，使我们因政府荒谬、僵化、非理性的产业政策而丧失竞争力。

And institutions don't want to invest in everything we do here, taking the PE down of everything, reducing or increasing our cost of capital, making us less competitive because of absolutely head up your ass sclerotic, lurching, irrational industrial policy from our government.

在我看来，会毁灭我们的不是终结者。

In my opinion, it's not the Terminator that it's gonna kill us.

而是一个叫总统的混蛋。

It's a fucking clown called the president.

广告后我们马上回来。

We'll be right back after the break.

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这不仅仅是一次性服务。

This is not a one and done service.

DeleteMe 会定期向您发送个性化的隐私报告，显示他们发现了哪些信息、在何处发现，以及已删除了哪些内容。

DeleteMe sends you regular personalized privacy reports showing what info they found, where they found it, and what they removed.

我们的制作人珍妮弗·桑切斯试用了 DeleteMe。

Our producer, Jennifer Sanchez, tried DeleteMe.

她惊讶地发现，网上竟然已经存在如此多关于她的个人信息，而 DeleteMe 让清理这些信息变得轻而易举。

She was surprised to find out how much personal information was actually already out there about her and DeleteMe made it easy to clean it up.

立即注册 DeleteMe，享受为我们的听众特别提供的折扣，掌握您的数据，保护您的私人生活。

Take control of your data and keep your private life private by signing up for DeleteMe now at a special discount for our listeners.

访问 joindeleteme.com/profg 并在结账时使用促销码 prof g，即可享受 DeleteMe 计划 20% 的折扣。

Get 20% off your DeleteMe plan when you go to joindeleteme.com/profg and use promo code prof g at checkout.

要享受 20% 折扣，唯一的方式是访问 joindeleteme.com/profg，并在结账时输入代码 prof g。

The only way to get 20% off is to go to join deleteme.com/profg and enter code prof g at checkout.

那就是 joindeleteme.com/profg，代码 prof g。

That's join deleteme.com/profg, code prof g.

本节目由VCX赞助，VCX是私营科技公司的公开股票代码。

Support for the show comes from VCX, the public ticker for private tech.

几代以来，美国公司凭借其创造力和决心推动了世界前进。

For generations, American companies have moved the world forward through their ingenuity and determination.

几代以来，普通美国人可以通过或许是人类最伟大的发明之一——美国股市，参与到这一进程中。

And for generations, everyday Americans could be part of that journey through perhaps the greatest innovation of all, The US stock market.

无论你是底特律的工厂工人，还是奥马哈的农民，都无关紧要。

It didn't matter whether you were a factory worker in Detroit or a farmer in Omaha.

任何人都能拥有这些伟大的美国公司的股份。

Anyone could own a piece of the great American companies.

但如今，这种情况已经改变了。

But now that's changed.

如今，我们最具创新性的公司选择保持私有，而不是上市。

Today, our most innovative companies are staying private rather than going public.

结果是，普通美国人被排除在投资之外，越来越落后，而少数人却独享所有利益，直到现在。

The result is that everyday Americans are excluded from investing and getting left further behind while a select few reap all the benefits until now.

推出VCX，一个面向私营科技公司的公开股票代码。

Introducing VCX, a public ticker for private tech.

VCX由Fundrise提供，让每个人都有机会投资于下一代创新，包括该公司引领的人工智能革命、太空探索、国防科技等。

VCX by Fundrise gives everyone the opportunity to invest in the next generation of innovation, including the company's leading AI revolution, space exploration, defense tech, and more.

访问getvcx.com获取更多信息。

Visit getvcx.com for more info.

那就是getvcx.com。

That's getvcx.com.

投资前请仔细考虑投资材料，包括投资目标、风险费用和开支。

Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risk charges, and expenses.

更多相关信息可在getvcx.com上的基金招募说明书里找到。

This and other information can be found in the fund's prospectus at getvcx.com.

这是一则付费赞助内容。

This is a paid sponsorship.

本节目由领英赞助。

Support for the show comes from LinkedIn.

当最好的B2B营销被用在错误的受众身上时，真是令人遗憾。

It's a shame when the best b to b marketing gets wasted on the wrong audience.

比如，在周六早晨的卡通节目中投放白内障手术广告，或者在关于Roblox的视频里推广这个节目，这简直太荒谬了。

Like, running an ad for cataract surgery on Saturday morning cartoons or running a promo for this show on a video about Roblox or something.

并非针对我们的Gen Alpha听众不敬，但这样做无疑是在浪费任何人的广告预算。

No offense to our Gen Alpha listeners, but that would be a waste of anyone's ad budget.

因此，当你想触达正确的专业人士时，可以使用领英广告。

So when you wanna reach the right professionals, you can use LinkedIn ads.

根据领英的数据，其网络已发展到拥有超过10亿专业人士和1.3亿决策者。

LinkedIn has grown to a network of over 1,000,000,000 professionals and a 130,000,000 decision makers according to their data.

这正是领英与其他广告投放方式的不同之处。

That's where it stands apart from other ad buys.

你可以根据职位、行业、公司角色、职级、技能、公司营收等精准定位买家，从而避免将预算浪费在错误的受众身上。

You can target buyers by job title, industry company role, seniority, skills, company revenue, all so you can stop wasting budget on the wrong audience.

这就是为什么LinkedIn广告拥有所有在线广告网络中最高的B2B广告投资回报率。

That's why LinkedIn ads boast one of the highest b to b return on ad spend of all online ad networks.

真的，所有广告网络中都是最高的。

Seriously, all of them.

在LinkedIn广告上为您的首个活动投入250美元，即可获得下一次活动的250美元免费额度。

Spend $250 on your first campaign on LinkedIn ads and get a free $250 credit for the next one.

只需访问linkedin.com/scott。

Just go to linkedin.com/scott.

就是linkedin.com/scott。

That's linkedin.com/scott.

条款和条件适用。

Terms and conditions apply.

我们继续回到Prophecy Markets。

We're back with Prophecy Markets.

特朗普总统利用他长达107分钟的国情咨文，描绘了国家乐观的前景，并宣称这是一次‘史无前例的转折’。

President Trump used his one hundred and seven minute state of the union to paint an optimistic picture of the country declaring what he called a, quote, turnaround for the ages.

他谈到了从通货膨胀和移民到医疗保健和选举舞弊的所有话题，但并非每个人都对此感到乐观。

He touched on everything from inflation and immigration to health care and voter fraud, but not everyone feels so positive about it.

所以，让我们抛开言辞，深入数据本身。

So let's move past the rhetoric, and let's dig into the numbers.

我们将审视通货膨胀、市场、GDP和失业率的数据，并就美国的真实状况达成共识。

We're going to take a look at the data on inflation, on markets, on GDP, unemployment, and we are going to reach a consensus on the real state of the union.

所以，斯科特，我想我们或许应该先从这次国情咨文中一些明显的不实之词开始，以便大家对美国的现状、哪些是事实、哪些不是达成一致。

So, Scott, I think maybe we should just start with some of the untruths that we that we witnessed, in this state of the union just so that we're all on the same page here about how America is doing, and what's true and what isn't.

我认为我们首先要立即澄清的一个重大谎言是，我们在十二个月内吸引了18万亿美元的外国投资。

So I think the first big lie that we need to just dispel immediately is that we secured $18,000,000,000,000 of foreign investment in twelve months.

我不知道特朗普这个数字是从哪里来的。

I have no idea where Trump has gotten this number from.

这几乎超过了我们当前GDP的一半。

That is literally more than half of our current GDP.

他自己的网站上说这个数字是9.7万亿美元，但这也是一个捏造的数字。

His own website says that the number is 9,700,000,000,000, which is also a made up number.

这完全是空穴来风。

This is, like, based on nothing.

正如我们所说，这些都不是真正的交易。

As we've said, none of these are actual deals.

它们只是口头承诺，然后根据每天的情况，把数字上下翻倍地夸大。

They're just verbal commitments, and then they explode the numbers by a 100% to the upside and the downside depending on the day.

我的意思是，这个数字完全虚假，这是第一点。

I mean, that number is totally bogus, so that's the first thing.

你提到的另一点是，外国政府在支付关税。

The other thing you said is that foreign countries are paying the tariffs.

不对。

Not true.

已经有多项研究进行了验证。

Multiple studies have been done.

90%到96%的关税负担实际上落在了美国企业和美国消费者身上。

90 to 96% of the tariff burden is falling on US firms and US customers.

他说价格正在急剧下跌。

He said that prices are plummeting downward.

不对。

Not true.

价格上涨了近3%。

Prices have risen nearly 3%.

通货膨胀正在上升。

Inflation is going up.

大多数州的汽油价格低于2.30美元，有些州甚至低至1.99美元——这也不对。

Gas is below $2.30 in most states, $1.99 in some, also not true.

没有任何一个州的平均价格低于2.37美元，只有两个州的平均价格低于2.50美元。

No state had an average below $2.37, and only two states averaged below $2.50.

那些基本上都是大的谎言。

Those were sort of the big lies.

既然我们现在已经达成共识，希望这些说法都不属实，那我们来谈谈你对国情咨文的反应吧。

So now that we agree, hopefully, that those are not true, let's start with your reactions to the State of the Union.

我觉得这基本上就是个空架子。

I thought it was mostly a nothing burger.

如果我试着消除自己的偏见，我觉得他的演讲显得很有力度。

I I thought if I try to cleanse my biases, I thought it came across as robust.

他没说多少内容。

He didn't say a lot.

我的意思是，我觉得没什么特别的。

I didn't think it was that I mean, it felt like not much to me.

我本以为他会宣布些什么。

I was waiting for some sort of announcement.

没有任何新的政策或新的民意调查。

There was no new poll real new policies.

他曾炒作过减税。

He'd teased tax cuts.

但我们没看到任何实质内容。

We didn't see that.

持续了七十五分钟。

It was seventy five minutes.

有二十次起立鼓掌。

There was 20 standing ovations.

有八十次掌声中断。

There was 80 applause breaks.

我觉得，国会成员鼓掌消耗的热量，可能比实际立法还多。

I feel like these you know, I feel like congress burns more calories clapping than actually legislating.

完全同意。

Totally agree.

而且

And

好吧。

okay.

所以，公平地说，失业率相当低。

So unemployment to be fair, unemployment is pretty low.

通货膨胀已从峰值回落，但仍高于拜登离任时的水平。

Inflation is down from its peak, but it's still above where it was when Biden left office.

GDP增长为正，但尤其集中在少数几家公司。

GDP growth is positive, but it's especially concentrated around a small number of companies.

他有点让所有人盯着人工智能和大公司的资本支出，但一看购物账单就摘掉眼镜。

He's sort of asking everyone to stare at AI and big company CapEx and then take off your glasses when you're looking at your grocery receipts.

对吧？

Right?

所以，我不确定。

So I I don't know.

我觉得这简直就是选择性引用的典范。

I felt like it was a master class in cherry picking.

我很难看完整个内容。

I have trouble getting through the whole thing.

所以，我其实觉得民主党方面由阿比盖尔·斯彭伯格做的回应，她叫什么名字？

So I didn't I actually thought the the democratic response from Abigail Spamburger, that her name?

我觉得那真的很有力。

I thought that was really strong.

我其实有个想法想向你提一下。

I actually have an idea there that I wanna pitch you.

但数据本身确实是真实的。

But, like, the data the data was sorta real.

而那种解读却更真实。

The spin was much realer.

而且，再次强调，我认为我们在这里并没有真正面对问题，那就是赤字。

And, again, I just don't think we're dealing with the real issues here, and that is the deficit.

我觉得迟早会有一个有担当的人站出来说：好吧。

I I I think at some point, we're getting an adult in the room that says, okay.

各位，你们知道，民主党人，我们得削减开支。

Folks, you know, Democrats, we're gonna have to cut spending.

共和党人，我们得加税。

Republicans, we're gonna have to raise taxes.

我们开始吧。

Let's get to it.

你知道，谁才是这个房间里真正有担当的人？

You know, who is the who are the adults in this room?

真的有人准备好面对这个问题了吗？

Is anyone is anyone actually ready to address this?

我们需要十亿剂GLP-1药物，试图在未来十年内将人均医疗成本从13000美元降低400美元，以解决赤字问题，因为所有问题的根源都在于福利，而福利最终指向医疗保健。

Oh, and we we need a billion doses of GLP one drugs to try and bring the average cost of health care from 13,000 per person down by $400 a year for the next ten years and address the deficit because all roads lead to entitlements, which lead to health care.

总之，不行。

Anyway, no.

我感觉我真想写好这篇演讲，然后看着他们所有人说：好吧。

I I feel like I would love to just write this speech and just look at all of them and say, okay.

谁准备好了？

Who's ready?

这里有没有人愿意真正面对这些问题？

Is is there anyone in the middle here ready to actually address these issues?

所以，你知道，我现在看这个都有点困难。

So, you know, I had I have trouble watching it at this point.

我只是觉得这太疯狂了。

I just think it's so insane.

曾经有一次，我觉得他说我们带来了18万亿美元的投资。

And these at one point, I think he said that we brought an $18,000,000,000,000 in investment.

我在想，他到底从哪儿弄来这些数字的？

I'm like, where the fuck is he even getting these numbers?

这感觉就像一场财报电话会，投资者是共和党人，而且没有任何证交会监管。

It's like so it it felt like it's an earnings call, whereas investors are the Republicans, and there's no SEC.

他不会惹上麻烦。

He can't get in trouble.

你可以随便抛出一些数字。

You can just throw out numbers.

这个比喻太贴切了。

It's a great great analogy.

这就像是如果黄仁勋说，我们的收益增长了11000000%。

It'd be like if Jensen Huang said, our earnings were up 11000000%.

这是历史上最棒的一个收益季度，而且我们的积压订单，我们打算继续增长，我们的收入增长了440倍。

That's the greatest earnings quarter in history, and and our backlog, we're we're gonna grow this we grew our revenues 440 fold.

这确实是个很好的观点。

It's honestly a great point.

在国情咨文演讲中对经济数据撒谎，理应承担法律后果。

There should be legal implications for lying about the numbers of the economy during the State of the Union address.

如果我们对黄仁勋说错话有法律追责，那为什么总统就不能呢？

If we have legal implications for Jensen Huang saying the wrong thing, shouldn't that exist for the president?

这真是个非常好的观点。

I it's a really good point.

这番话揭示了美国的一个现状：我们更保护和重视投资者，而非公民本身。

That's an interesting statement on America, and that is we're much more protective and value investors more than we do citizenry.

没错。

Right.

天啊。

So oh my god.

埃德，这是我们说过最有洞察力的话了。

That was the most insightful thing we've ever said, Ed.

来西南偏南见我们吧。

That was come see us at South by Southwest.

这是个非常好的观点。

That's a really good point.

我之前没想过。

I hadn't

想到这一点了。

thought of that.

让我稍微降低一点。

Let me just bring it down a bit.

四分之一磅汉堡。

Quarter pounder.

总之，抱歉刚才那样。

Anyway, sorry about that.

我的意思是，把这个国情咨文和财报之间的类比继续展开，我觉得这完全正确。

I mean, just to run with this analogy between the State of the Union address and an earnings report, I think that's exactly right.

这里存在一定程度的炒作和选择性呈现，而且实际上相当巧妙。

There's a level of spin here and cherry picking, which was actually quite deft.

我认为你确实应该赞扬撰写这篇演讲稿的人，因为他很好地应对了所有这些问题。

And I think you actually have to give credit to whoever wrote that speech for navigating all of these issues pretty well.

但正如你所指出的，他要求美国人相信，所有美国人的生活都过得非常好，汽油价格在下降，食品价格和杂货账单也在下降。

But to your point, he's asking America to believe that everything is going really great for Americans and that gas prices are are coming down and that food prices and grocery bills are coming down.

他要求每个人都相信这一点，但事实根本不是这样。

He's asking everyone to believe that when that is simply not true.

目前美国民众的消费情绪正在急剧下滑。

And consumer sentiment among Americans right now is absolutely tanking.

大多数美国人，三分之二的美国人认为，他在这些关税问题上完全搞砸了。

Most Americans, two thirds of Americans agree that he has completely bungled these tariffs.

我认为大多数美国人已经意识到关税对消费品价格的影响，以及它们对家庭杂货账单的影响。

I think most Americans are realizing what tariffs are doing to consumer prices, what they are doing to their grocery bills.

也就是说，关税推高了他们的杂货账单，因为正如我们讨论过的，关税成本最终转嫁给了消费者，所以实际上是消费者在为关税买单。

That is they're making their grocery bills go up because as we've discussed, the tariffs are being passed through onto the consumer, and so it's consumers that are paying the cost of the tariffs.

我们还看到，许多美国人表示，他们不认同、也不赞成他对经济的处理方式。

They're also we're also seeing that a lot of Americans are saying, we just don't agree with and we don't approve of how he is handling the economy.

然而，他在国情咨文中却要求我们只说一切都在好转。

And yet he's asking in the state of the union for us to just say, things are going well.

看看这边这个数字。

Look at this number over here.

看看那边这个数字。

Look at this number over here.

看看我们的GDP已经增长了。

Look at the fact that our GDP has grown.

看看我们的经济，正如他所说，正以前所未有的势头蓬勃发展。

Look at the fact that our, quote, economy is roaring like never before.

正如你所指出的，他却没有承认，这种情况的发生是因为人工智能目前正为GDP增长贡献整整半个百分点，因为美国本质上正在对人工智能进行一场巨大押注。

And then as you kinda point out, not acknowledging that the reason that is happening is because AI is adding a full half percentage point to GDP growth right now because America is essentially becoming a giant bet on AI.

我们明年可能还会看到更多增长的原因，正如你所说，是因为这种不可思议的赤字支出，明年将达到2万亿美元。

The reason that we're probably gonna see some more growth in in the next year is, as you say, because of this unbelievable deficit spending, which is gonna reach $2,000,000,000,000 next year.

这种水平以往只在经济衰退和疫情期间出现过。

That's a level that we've only reached during recessions and during pandemics.

因此，基本面和整体情况并不乐观，而他却要求我们相信一切都很美好。

So the underlying situation and picture isn't great, and he's asking us to believe it is great.

但最重要的观点是你在上一部分提出的：你看股票价格。

But the most important point is the one you brought up in the previous section, which is that you look at the stock price.

目前，我们的表现远远落后于所有主要指数和主要国际市场。

We are underperforming every major index, every major international market right now by a pretty significant margin.

当你回顾去年，虽然标普500指数上涨了16%，表现不错，但如果你看不含美国的全球所有国家指数，它上涨了29%，几乎是美国回报率的两倍。

When you look at last year where, yes, the S and P rose 16%, which was good, but you look at the all country world index minus The US, which rose 29%, which is almost double the return of The US.

甚至还没有考虑汇率调整。

Not even dollar adjusted.

我们2024年的大预测是什么？

What was our big prediction at '24?

从美国股票中轮动到

Rotation out of US stocks into

从美国市场轮动出去。

Rotation out of US.

然后关键问题是，这种趋势会在2026年继续下去，还是在2025年就已经把这波行情的潜力榨干了？

And then the big question was, is this going to continue in 2026, or was all of the juice squeezed out of that trade in 2025?

它还在继续。

It is continuing.

今年至今，标普指数持平。

Year to date, S and P is flat.

今年至今，剔除美国的MSCI全球指数上涨了10%。

Year to date, MSCI World minus USA index is up 10%.

所以所有这些其他股市，它们的表现都更出色。

So all of these other stock markets, I mean, they are outperforming.

你可以走上舞台，指着股市说：看，我们的股市表现不错。

And you can get up there on on the stage, and you can say, look at the stock market.

我们表现得很好。

We're doing well.

但正如我们都知道的，所有事情都是相对的。

But as we all know, all of the stuff is relative.

当你把我们和世界其他地区比较时，实际上我们的表现并不好，这令人惊讶，因为你会觉得，既然我们拥有所有AI公司——而我们确实拥有，为什么情况没有好转呢？

When you compare us to the rest of the world, we're actually not doing so well, which is surprising because you would think that if we own all of the AI companies, which we do, why aren't things going well?

我认为这正如你所说，资本流动正在调整。

And I think it's to your point, the capital flows are adjusting.

人们正在撤出资金。

People are rotating out.

人们正在寻找借口卖出这些公司，转而投入其他领域。

People are looking for an excuse to sell these companies and to get into something else.

这对他的处境和美国人都构成了真正的问题。

And that's a real problem for him and for Americans.

但再说一遍，如果外面在下雨，烧烤再好也没用。

But, again, it doesn't matter how great the barbecue is if it's raining outside.

氛围和背景很重要。

Like, the atmospherics and the context matter.

拉丁美洲有一些非常出色的企业，过去十年、二十年里每年都实现收入和利润增长，但它们的股价却停滞或下跌，因为你无法摆脱资金流动的影响。

And you can't there's some amazing companies in Latin America that have grown their revenues and profits every year for the last ten, twenty years, and all of them are flat or down because you can't outrun flows.

直到去年，资金从拉丁美洲流出的方向一直是一边倒地流向其他市场。

And the flows out of Latin America have been one way to other markets until last year.

所以，即使是一些优秀的企业，除了MercadoLibre可能是个例外，也都下跌了。

So great companies, maybe with the exception of MercadoLibre, just went down.

你不能指望市场动态屈从于个别公司的表现。

You can't you know, market dynamics trump individual performance.

而我们现在看到的情况，是因为人们对当前政府的产业政策缺乏信心，以及法治的削弱，我认为这导致了资金外流。

And what we're seeing now, because, again, of a lack of faith in our current current administration industrial policy and a degradation of the rule of law, I think you're seeing flows out.

关于国情咨文，我很喜欢我印象中Jonathan Haidt所说的内容。

And with respect to the state of the union, I loved what I think it was with Jonathan Haidt.

我忘了是谁说过关于马克·扎克伯格和Meta的这句话。

I forget who said this about Mark Zuckerberg and Meta.

你知道，他们会说，好吧。

You know, they they would say, alright.

青少年抑郁情况怎么样？

What's happening with teen depression?

他们会引用一堆虚假数据或谎言，或者很明显是在隐瞒自己的数据，即平台对年轻人、尤其是女孩造成的心理影响和痛苦。

And they would they would cite a bunch of false data or lies, or they would it was clear that they were hiding data, their own data about how much mental impact anguish it was creating on young people, especially girls.

有一个人说的话让我印象深刻。

And this one person said something that really struck me.

也许那是弗朗西斯·豪根说的，意思是当所有错误都对你有利时，它们就不是错误了。

Maybe it was Frances Haugen, and that is when all the mistakes are in your favor, they're not mistakes.

它们是谎言。

They're lies.

我每次退房时都会用这句话来提醒自己。

And I constantly use that quote when I I check out of hotels.

我从不核对账单，但每次我核对时，都会发现错误。

I never check my bill, but whenever I do, I find mistakes.

这些错误从来不会对我有利。

The mistakes are never in my favor.

总是这样，哦，等等。

It's always, oh, wait.

你不是登记入住了一天吗？不。

Didn't you check-in a day no.

我没有办理入住。

I didn't check-in.

我周三入住的。

I checked on Wednesday.

我周四办理的入住。

I checked in on Thursday.

哦，这里写着你喝了六瓶姜汁汽水。

Oh, it says here you had, you know, six ginger ales.

不。

No.

我没有碰过任何人。

I I didn't touch somebody.

从来不会有他们忘记收费的错误。

There's never a mistake where they forget to charge you.

我总是这么说。

And I always say this.

我说，当所有错误都对你有利时，那就不叫错误。

I'm like, when all the mistakes are in your favor, they're not mistakes.

那是谎言。

They're lies.

他所处状态下的每一个错误，我的意思是，这种撒谎已经失控到被正常化、被接受了。

And every single mistake in his state of the I mean, the lying has gotten so out of control that it's been normalized, that it's been okay.

我们已经放弃了事实核查，而朝鲜或苏联政治局的杜马成员现在只是站着，我的意思是，这让我想起了朝鲜和萨达姆时期的伊拉克，那时他们开会或发表国情咨文时，你真真切切地感觉到，如果他们没有站起来鼓掌，第二天就可能被绑在大炮上处决。

We've just given up on fact checking, and the North Korean or the Soviet Politburo Duma here will just stand I mean, the the the thing that it reminded me of is in North Korea and in Iraq under Hussein when they'd have these meetings or state of the unions, you you got the very real sense that if they were not seen jumping up and applauding, there was a chance they might be strapped to a cannon and executed the next day.

这并不过分夸张。

And that's not much of an exaggeration.

就是这种感觉。

That's how it felt.

好吧，敌人。

It's like, okay, foe.

我不在乎你是共和党人还是别的。

I don't care if you're Republican or not.

你们都是聪明人。

You're smart people.

你们会算数。

You do math.

他们并没有把一万八千亿美元带回美国作为新的投资。

They didn't bring $18,000,000,000,000 back to The US in new investment.

这些关税并没有让美国变得更好，我的意思是，这些人知道这完全是胡说八道，但他们也很害怕。

These tariffs aren't are making America I mean, these guys know this is fucking bullshit, but they're also scared.

我只是想不通，当一名民选领导人到底有什么了不起的，因为我觉得他确实有权主导人事任命。

I just can't figure out what is so amazing about being an elected leader because I do think he has the power to primary people.

但当国会议员就真的那么了不起吗？

But is it just that awesome to be in congress?

到底当国会议员有什么这么了不起，让你愿意如此卑躬屈膝？

Like, what what is so incredible about being in congress that you're willing just to prostrate yourself like this?

但没错，那是一系列会议，接下来的主意都是我的。

But, yeah, it was it was a series of meetings, and it was my ideas the following.

你有看到阿比盖尔·斯彭伯格的民主党回应吗？

Did you see the democratic response from Abigail Spamberger?

我没看。

I didn't.

好吧。

Okay.

所以阿比盖尔·斯彭伯格，46岁，以前我认为她曾在国安局或中情局工作，是一名前情报官员，真是个极其出色的人，正是你希望政府里有的那种人，她还是弗吉尼亚州的第75任州长。

So Abigail Spamberger, 46, former, I believe she was either in the NSA or the CIA, just, a former intelligence officer, just such an incredibly impressive person, exactly who you want in government, and she's the seventy fifth governor of Virginia.

她做了回应。

She did the response.

这是我的想法。

This is my idea.

我打了电话，联系了一位正在竞选总统的民主党参议员，所以他得接我电话，因为他觉得我会给他很多钱。

I called, and I called a a Democratic senator who's running for president, so he has to take my calls because he thinks I'm gonna give him a lot of money.

但我还是会给他发短信，说：我有个主意。

But I'll text him and say, I have an idea.

他就会说，

And he's like,

哦，别提他的名字，别毁了他的竞选。

oh Name drop him and ruin his campaign.

他他

He he

马上给我回电话。

calls me right away.

这些可怜的人，他们不得不听我说话。

These poor guys, they have to they have to listen to me.

这太糟糕了。

It is awful.

不管怎样，

Anyways,

所以我就说，我有个下一个的想法。

so I'm like, I got an idea for the next.

三十年前，中场秀根本无关紧要。

So thirty years ago, the halftime show was irrelevant.

大家都去休息了。

Everyone took a break.

没人在意。

No one cared.

没人真的关心迈克尔·杰克逊或者其他人。

No one really cared about Michael Jackson or whoever.

嗯，他们曾经办过一场，我记得我最喜欢的是他们办过一场迪士尼中场秀。

Well, they'd had a well, I remember my favorite was they had a Disney halftime show once.

你最喜欢的迪士尼角色是什么？

What are your favorite Disney characters?

而现在，中场秀的重要性已经超过比赛本身了。

And now the halftime show is more important than the game.

我会在未来两年内全力以赴，让民主党的回应比共和党的回应更重要。

I would make a real effort over the next two years to make the half to make the Democratic response more important than the Republican response.

我会租一个超棒的场地。

I'd rent an amazing venue.

我会聘请杰伊·兹的摇滚军团，给他们巨额预算，安排一万名狂热、年轻的民主党粉丝，用震撼的音乐为它造势。

I would hire Jay Z's Rock Nation, give them a huge budget, 10,000 rabid, hot, young Democrats, have fucking amazing music lead up to it.

她的演讲太棒了，我会安排灯光和性感元素，因为一旦在宏伟的圆形大厅和性感魅力之后登场，就会显得平淡无奇。

Her speech was so awesome, and I'd have lights and sex because the moment it comes after the majesty and the sex appeal of the rotunda, it just feels flat.

让场面更性感一点。

Sex it up.

让这一切更性感一些。

Sex it up.

让它超级酷炫、超级制作精良，变成一场更重要的中场表演。

Make it super cool, super overproduced, and turn it into the halftime show that's more important.

因为对比之下，如果你读过她的演讲，那真是出色至极。

Because the contrast, if you read her speech, it was outstanding.

它经过了事实核查。

It was fact checked.

内容非常扎实。

It was really solid.

她直击要害，每一句话都切中要点。

She went right for the jugular, and everything she said was on point.

他们没有为它做包装，真是亏待了她。

They did her a disservice by not wrapping it.

全是干货，没有一点花哨。

It was all chip, no salsa, all substance.

他们需要让这个更吸引人。

They need to sex it up.

总之，这就是我的主要想法。

Anyways, that was my big idea.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

如需获取更多市场洞察，请前往 proftymarkets.com/subscribe 订阅我们的通讯。

And for even more markets insights, sign up for our newsletter at proftymarkets.com/subscribe.

嘿。

Hey.

我是卡拉·斯威舍。

Kara Swisher here.

我想通知大家，Vox Media 将重返德克萨斯州奥斯汀的西南偏南大会，进行您喜爱播客的现场录制。

I wanna let you know that Vox Media is returning to South by Southwest in Austin for live tapings of your favorite podcast.

请在3月13日至15日来现场观看《今日解析》《Tuffy Talks》《Prof G 市场》以及当然还有您最喜爱的两档播客《Pivot》和《On with Kara Swisher》的现场录制。

Join us from March 13 through the fifteenth for live tapings of Today Explained, Tuffy Talks, Prof G Markets, and of course, your two favorite podcasts, Pivot and On with Kara Swisher.

舞台还将呈现布琳·布朗和亚当·格兰特、马尔克·布朗利、基思·李、维维安·图和罗宾·阿尔赞的演讲。

The stage will also feature sessions from Brene Brown and Adam Grant, Marques Brownlee, Keith Lee, Vivian Tu, and Robin Arzan.

这一切都是由Odoo赞助的Vox Media播客舞台在西南偏南活动中的组成部分。

It's all part of the Vox Media podcast stage at South by Southwest presented by Odoo.

请访问voxmedia.com/sxsw进行预注册，并获取您的创新通行证专属折扣。

Visit voxmedia.com/sxsw to preregister and get your special discount on your innovation badge.

要注册，请访问voxmedia.com/sxsw。

That's voxmedia.com/sxsw to register.

真的，你应该去注册。

Really, you should register.

我们场场爆满，期待在那里见到你。

We sell out, and we hope to see you there.

本集由SoFi中小企业贷款平台赞助。

This episode is brought to you by SoFi Small Business Loan Marketplace.

你知道SoFi，它帮助你妥善处理学生贷款和高收益储蓄。

You know SoFi, the one that helps you get your money right with student loans and high yield savings.

现在，他们正在帮助小企业获得快速融资。

Now they're helping small businesses find fast funding.

如果你经营一家小企业，你很可能正面临现金流问题，试图为新的机会寻找资金，或考虑其他扩张方式。

If you run a small business, you're probably dealing with cash flow, trying to find capital for new opportunities, or thinking about other ways to expand.

通过SoFi的小企业贷款平台，你可以获得快速的数字化解决方案。

With SoFi's small business loan marketplace, you can get fast digital solutions.

这就是SoFi的小企业贷款平台。

That's SoFi's small business loan marketplace.

通过一次简单快捷的搜索，SoFi能在几分钟内为你匹配经过审核的贷款机构。

In one single simple search, SoFi matches you with vetted providers for your business in just minutes.

你会获得符合你目标的贷款选项。

You'll get matched with loan options that meet your goals.

如果你找到合适的贷款，你可以在获批当天就收到资金。

And if you find a loan that works for you, you can receive funds as soon as the same day you're approved.

你还可以探索企业银行账户和企业信用卡。

You can also explore business bank accounts and business credit cards.

访问 sofi.com/profg，几分钟内查看您的贷款选项，且不会影响您的信用评分。

Visit sofi.com/profg and see your loan options in minutes, all with no impact your credit score.

SoFi 市场网站由 SoFi 借贷公司所有。

The SoFi marketplace website is owned by SoFi Lending Corp.

条款、条件及州级限制适用。

Terms, conditions, and state restrictions apply.

CFL 6054612。

CFL 6054612.

NMLS 1121636。

NMLS 1121636.

唐纳德·特朗普国情咨文中外交政策部分的主要要点是什么？

What are the main takeaways of the foreign policy section from Donald Trump's State of the Union address?

我认为他们已决定在中期选举临近时将重点放在国内议题上。

I do think they've made a decision to elevate domestic issues as we head towards the midterms.

我们会看看这种策略能否持续，因为他总是会被拉回到外交政策问题上。

We'll see if that sticks because he keeps getting drawn back to the foreign policy issues.

我是约翰·费纳。

I'm John Feiner.

我是杰克·苏利文，我们是《长远博弈》的主持人，这是一档每周播出的国家安全播客。

And I'm Jake Sullivan, and we're the hosts of The Long Game, a weekly national security podcast.

本周，我们将对特朗普总统的国情咨文、伊朗局势以及墨西哥贩毒集团爆发的暴力事件进行点评。

This week, we'll react to president Trump's state of the union address, the situation with Iran, and the eruption of violence involving cartels in Mexico.

本期节目现已上线。

The episode's out now.

在您收听播客的任何平台搜索并关注《长远博弈》。

Search for and follow the long game wherever you get your podcasts.

我们回到Prophecy Markets。

We're back with Prophecy Markets.

Netflix已退出华纳兄弟探索公司的竞购战。

Netflix has dropped out of the Warner Brothers Discovery bidding war.

这为派拉蒙在提交修订后的1110亿美元报价后仅数日便完成收购扫清了道路。

That clears the path for Paramount to make the acquisition just days after submitting a revised $111,000,000,000 offer.

华纳兄弟给了奈飞四天时间提出反报价，但该公司拒绝了，称这笔交易‘不再具有财务吸引力’。

Warner Brothers gave Netflix four days to counter, but the company declined saying the deal was, quote, no longer financially attractive.

这笔交易仍需获得监管批准，但目前来看，派拉蒙在新闻中胜出。

The transaction will still need regulatory approval, but for now, Paramount has come out on top on the news.

华纳兄弟股价下跌3%，派拉蒙上涨7%，奈飞则上涨10%。

Warner Brothers stock fell 3%, Paramount climbed 7%, and Netflix popped 10%.

斯科特、派拉蒙、大卫·埃里森——拉里·埃里森的儿子，他们是赢家，或者至少看起来他们将成为赢家，前提是获得监管批准。

Scott, Paramount, David Ellison, the son of Larry Ellison, they are the winners, or it appears they're going to be the winners pending regulatory approval.

关于派拉蒙击败奈飞的初步反应。

Initial reactions to Paramount beating Netflix.

这要看你怎么定义‘赢家’了。

Well, it depends what you mean by winners.

让我们来谈谈这里的赢家和输家。

So let's talk about winners and losers here.

从赢家名单来看，排在首位的是华纳兄弟探索公司的股东，也就是大卫·达斯洛。

And the top of the list in terms of winners is Warner Brothers Discovery shareholders, and that is David Daslov.

我觉得他其实是个挺一般的管理者，说不上多出色。

I I think he was a pretty, I don't know, mediocre operator.

但他是个顶尖的投资银行家。

He's an outstanding investment banker.

我的意思是，如果当年埃里森家族或塞兰多那边有人觉得你会出价超过每股25美元，六个月前他们肯定会说：绝对不可能。

I mean, they literally got if either the Ellisons or Cerandos ever thought you're gonna bid more than $25 a share for this, they you know, six months ago, they would have said no fucking way.

这公司根本不值那个价。

That company's not worth it.

这家公司的股价从7美元的低点涨到了31美元，而公司本身却没有任何实质改变。

This is a company that's gone from a low of $7 a share to 31, with no change.

可以说，这段时间里，这家公司的业务反而更糟了。

Arguably, the business has gotten worse over that period.

所以他给他的银行团队上了一堂大师课，教他们如何激发肾上腺素和竞争态势，结果桌面上每一分钱都进了华纳兄弟探索公司的股东口袋。

So he he was he put on a master class and his bankers and how to get testosterone involved and competitive dynamics, and literally the the every possible cent on the table has gone to Warner Brothers Discovery shareholders.

所以他们是最大的赢家。

So they're the biggest winners.

在赢家中位居第二的是奈飞股东。

A close second in terms of winners is Netflix shareholders.

因为这展示了特德·塞拉诺的特质。

Because what this shows or Ted Serrano specifically.

这表明特德是一个有纪律的管理者。

What this shows is Ted is a disciplined operator.

他能够发布一份声明，称我们有义务对股东负责，任何时候都不应做无意义的交易。

He can put out a press release saying, we have a obligation to shareholders at some point.

没有任何交易是有意义的。

No deal makes sense.

他能够展示出自己有能力完成一笔交易。

He was able to show he could do a deal.

他处理得非常好。

He handled it well.

我认为他表现得很出色，他们正在做优秀管理者该做的事。

I think he acquitted himself well, and they're doing what good operators do.

他们会在某些情况下选择退出，因为每笔交易在某个价格上都有意义，但在某个价格点上，任何交易都没有意义。

And that is they walk away when no longer you know, every deal makes sense at some price, and no deal makes any sense at a certain price.

因此，他退出这笔交易，我认为他们节省了大约1200亿美元的总对价。

So him walking away from from this deal, they save, I think, total consideration was approximately a $120,000,000,000.

然后，我们之前就预测到了这一点。

And then, and we predicted this.

消息公布后，奈飞的股价上涨了10%。

The stock is up 10%, Netflix on the news.

在3500亿美元的估值基础上，他们因为退出交易获得了360亿美元的收益，同时提升了市值。

So with a $350,000,000,000 valuation, they they got a they got $36,000,000,000 for walking away and increased market cap.

他们还将因交易终止获得25亿美元的分手费。

They're gonna get another 2 and a half billion in in cash for the breakup fee.

如果把总对价1200亿美元，加上股票上涨和分手费这大约400亿美元的‘额外赠品’加在一起，奈飞实际上因为没做这笔交易而获得了1600亿美元。

So if you look at the total consideration of, say, a 120,000,000,000 plus the kind of 40,000,000,000 free gift with purchase in terms of stock appreciation and the breakup fee, know, Netflix got a $160,000,000,000 technically for not doing this deal.

我们正逐渐接近这样一个阶段：奈飞可以用因放弃收购华纳兄弟而获得的资金以及股价上涨的收益，现在距离收购迪士尼已经不远了。

And, I mean, you're we're getting to the point where Netflix could take the money that they're registering from not buying Warner Brothers and the increase in their stock price, and now they're in striking distance of potentially buying Disney.

迪士尼的市值大约为2000亿美元。

Disney's got about a $200,000,000,000 market cap.

因此，从赢家的角度来看，紧随其后的是特德·塞拉诺斯和奈飞，因为他们展现了自律，果断放弃了毫无意义的交易。

So for you know, close second in terms of winners, Ted Serranos and Netflix from showing discipline and walking from a deal that made no sense.

此外，如果我是他们，并且更倾向于权谋策略，我会开始动员我的游说团队，质疑这笔交易，引发大量诉讼。

In addition, if I were them and I were more Machiavellian, I would start firing up my lobbyists and start questioning this deal, lawsuits everywhere.

我会设法，即使不能彻底破坏这笔交易，也要拖延它，这将使整个好莱坞陷入停滞状态。

And I would try and, if not scuttle this deal, but delay it, and it's gonna put most of Hollywood into a sense of stasis.

事实上，我和奈飞有一笔交易。

And that is, like, I have a I have a deal with Netflix.

在这段时间里，我并不想说处于暂停状态，但关于他们将要采取的行动，存在很多不确定性。

During this period, it was sort of I don't wanna say on hold, but there was a lot of insecurity around what they were gonna do.

据说，CBS和派拉蒙目前由于各种原因正处于某种动荡之中。

Supposedly, CBS and Paramount are in a bit of, like, flux right now for a lot of different reasons.

因此，这里的不确定性将会非常显著。

So the insecurity here is gonna be pretty dramatic.

与此同时，特德·萨兰多斯可以对他的创意团队说，随便玩玩，我们还能做点什么？

Meanwhile, Ted Sarandos can say to his creative team, just for shits and giggles, what could we do?

我们用这1200亿美元还能做些什么？

What else could we do with a $120,000,000,000?

我们能不能掌控体育？

Could we own sports?

我们能不能成为历史上最大的体育网络，去收购一大批赛事版权，比如奥运会、NFL？

Could we become the biggest sports network in history and go out and buy a bunch of rights, Olympics, NFL?

我们能不能决定在未来十年内，成为东南亚、拉丁美洲和非洲最主导的流媒体平台？

Could we decide that we're going to be the most dominant streaming media platform in all of Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa over the next decade?

我的意思是，他们现在拥有了之前根本不会动用的庞大资源。

I mean, there's just they've got a lot of firepower now that they weren't gonna shoot at this.

所以，Netflix是这里的第二大赢家。

So Netflix, the second biggest second biggest winner here.

我们再谈谈派拉蒙吧，因为这对派拉蒙来说是一场关乎生死的必须行动。

Let's talk about and then I I think you'd have to say Paramount because this was an existential must do for Paramount.