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本节目由VCX赞助，VCX是私营科技公司的公开股票代码。
Support for the show comes from VCX, the public ticker for private tech.
美国股市开启了历史上最大规模的财富创造浪潮。
The US stock market started history's greatest wave of wealth creation.
从底特律的工厂工人到奥马哈的农民，任何人都能拥有美国伟大公司的股份。
From factory workers in Detroit to farmers in Omaha, anyone could own a piece of the great American companies.
但如今，我们最具创新性的公司长期保持私有状态，这意味着普通美国人直到现在才得以参与。
But today, our most innovative companies are staying private longer, which means everyday Americans are missing out until now.
推出VCX，私营科技公司的公开股票代码。
Introducing VCX, a public ticker for private tech.
访问getvcx.com获取更多信息。
Visit getvcx.com for more info.
那就是getvcx.com。
That's getvcx.com.
投资前请仔细考虑投资材料，包括投资目标、风险、费用和开支。
Carefully consider the investment materials before investing, including objectives, risk charges, and expenses.
更多相关信息可在getvcx.com上的基金招募说明书里找到。
This and other information can be found in the fund's prospectus at getvcx.com.
这是付费赞助内容。
This is a paid sponsorship.
本节目由Public提供支持，Public是为认真投资的人打造的投资平台。
Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously.
在Public上，您可以构建包含股票、债券、期权和现生成资产的多元资产投资组合，其中生成资产能让您借助AI将任何想法转化为可投资的指数。
On Public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, and options, and now generated assets, which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI.
前往public.com/podcast，转账您的投资组合即可获得无上限的1%奖励。
Go to public.com/podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio.
网址是public.com/podcast。
That's public.com/podcast.
由Open to the Public Investing Inc.旗下的Public投资经纪服务提供，该公司为FINRA和SIPC会员；顾问服务由SEC注册的投资顾问Public Advisors LLC提供。
Paid for by public investing brokerage services by open to the public investing inc member FINRA and SIPC advisory service by Public Advisors LLC, SEC registered adviser.
生成资产是一个互动分析工具。
Generated assets is an interactive analysis tool.
输出仅用于信息参考，不构成投资建议或推荐。
Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice.
完整披露内容请访问 public.com/disclosures。
Complete disclosure is available at public.com/disclosures.
本节目由 Indeed 赞助支持。
Support for this show comes from Indeed.
如果您正在寻找精通您领域的一流人才，Indeed 表示他们可以提供帮助。
If you're looking to hire top tier talent with expertise in your field, Indeed says they can help.
Indeed 赞助职位能让您的职位更突出，并帮助您接触到能带来所需成果的优质候选人。
Indeed sponsored jobs gives your job the best chance at standing out and grants you access to quality candidates who can drive the results you need.
花更多时间面试符合您所有要求的候选人。
Spend more time interviewing candidates who check all your boxes.
更少压力，更少时间，更多成果，立即使用 Indeed 赞助职位。
Less stress, less time, more results now with Indeed sponsored jobs.
本节目听众可获得 75 美元的赞助职位抵扣额，助您的职位获得应得的高级待遇，详情请访问 indeed.com/foxbusiness。
And listeners of this show will get a $75 sponsored job credit to help get your job the premium status it deserves at indeed.com/foxbusiness.
现在就前往 indeed.com/foxbusiness，通过说明你是从这个播客了解到 Indeed 来支持我们的节目，网址是 indeed.com/foxbusiness。
Just go to indeed.com/foxbusiness right now and support our show by saying you heard about Indeed on this podcast, indeed.com/foxbusiness.
条款和条件适用。
Terms and conditions apply.
招聘，就用 Indeed，做对的事。
Hiring, do it the right way with Indeed.
今天的数字：1300万。
Today's number, 13,000,000.
上周，一段 RFK 小伙子穿着牛仔裤跳进泳池的视频获得了这么多观看量。
That's how many views a video of RFK junior jumping into a pool with jeans on received last week.
这段古怪的视频本意是鼓励美国人‘积极活动’，但最终却让观众纷纷去寻求心理治疗。
The bizarre clip was designed to encourage Americans to, quote, get active, but it ultimately drove viewers to get therapy instead.
17000。
17,000.
我来给你一个数字。
I'm gonna give you a size.
货币市场很疯狂。
Money market's mad.
如果钱是邪恶的，那么那栋楼就是地狱。
If money is evil, then that building is hell.
节目继续。
Show goes on.
价格并没有在关注，所以节目。
The price are not watching so Show.
欢迎来到Profew Markets。
Welcome to Profew Markets.
我是埃德·埃尔森。
I'm Ed Elson.
今天是2月25日。
It is February 25.
让我们回顾一下昨天的市场关键数据。
Let's check-in on yesterday's market vitals.
主要指数全部上涨，科技股从周一的抛售中反弹。
The major indices all climbed as tech rallied out of Monday's sell off.
AMD领涨，涨幅达9%，因为Meta签署了一项多年协议，购买其芯片。
AMD led the way climbing 9% after Meta signed a multiyear deal to buy their chips.
Meta在未来一段时间内还有权以收购芯片制造商10%的股份。
Meta will also have the option to take a 10% stake in the chipmaker over a period of time.
尽管有此消息，Meta的股价实际上持平。
Meta's stock was actually flat on the news.
与此同时，黄金下跌，而比特币最终跌破63,000美元。
Meanwhile, gold declined, and finally, Bitcoin fell below $63,000.
好的。
Okay.
还有其他什么动态吗？
What else is happening?
一篇新的Substack文章导致软件股再次暴跌。
A new substack piece has sent software stocks into yet another freefall.
一篇由Citrini研究公司于周日发布的题为《2028年全球智能危机》的文章，描绘了一个噩梦般的场景：如果人工智能导致我们陷入金融危机怎么办？
An article entitled the twenty twenty eight global intelligence crisis published by Citrini Research on Sunday outlines a nightmare scenario, and that is what if AI leads us into a financial crisis?
这个前提很简单。
The premise is simple.
到2028年，人工智能取代人力导致失业率飙升至10%，消费骤降，标普指数暴跌，经济变得面目全非。
By 2028, AI displacement has caused unemployment to hit 10%, spending plummets, the S and P slumps, and the economy becomes unrecognizable.
这篇文章发布后，道琼斯指数一度下跌2%，软件股下跌5%。
After this piece was released, the Dow fell as much as 2% and software stocks fell 5%.
因此，为了剖析这篇Citrini研究文章及其引发的混乱，我们邀请到了Ritt Holz的首席执行官、《Compound and Friends》播客主持人Josh Brown。
So here to break down this Citrini research article and the chaos that ensued, we're speaking with Josh Brown, CEO at Ritt Holz and host of the Compound and Friends podcast.
Josh，很高兴见到你。
Josh, good to see you.
我想听听你对这篇Citrini研究博客文章的看法。
I wanna get your reaction to this Citrini research blog post.
这已经是三周内第二篇因人工智能而爆红的博客文章了。
This is like the second blog that's gone mega viral in three weeks related to AI.
现在我们看到市场出现了疯狂的抛售。
And now we're seeing just crazy selling in the markets.
你认同市场的这种反应吗？
Do you agree with the market's reaction?
你和其他投资者一样担心吗？
Are you as worried as other investors seem to be?
其实没有，但我很喜欢这篇文章。
Not really, but I love the I love the piece.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得这非常有趣。
I think I think it's fascinating.
我们有人提交他们的创意写作作品，就像在上大学一样，而市场立刻开始重新定价万事达和维萨，跌幅达10%。
We have people, like submitting their creative writing projects, like it's college and the market instantly like starts repricing MasterCard and Visa by 10%.
我觉得这简直太搞笑了。
I think it's fucking hilarious.
我觉得写得非常好。
I I think it was very well written.
是的。
Yes.
而且
And
我很欣赏这种能够试着提前两年思考并考虑所有连锁反应的能力。
I and I appreciated that ability to, like, try to think two years ahead and all the knock on effects.
问题是，我以前见过这种情况，但我不会说完这句话说我知道结局会怎样。
The thing is, I've seen this before, and I'm not going to finish that sentence by saying I know how it turns out.
我只是知道，结局会和所有负面因素叠加却没有丝毫缓解迹象的情况截然不同。
I just know it turns out differently than every single negative piling on top of each other without an offset in sight.
这些事情很少会以这种方式收场。
That is very rarely how these things end up.
因此，我认为我们有必要认真思考苏特里尼提出的问题。
And so I think it's important for us to think through the the issues that Suttrini raises.
但我认为我们所有人都下定论是完全没有必要的。
But I think it's highly unnecessary for us to all conclude.
哦，是的。
Oh, yeah.
它很可能就会像这样发展。
It'll probably it'll probably shake out just like this.
嗯。
Mhmm.
所有可能的糟糕外部影响都会同时发生，经济就完蛋了。
Every possible terrible externality will occur all at once, and it'll be game over for the economy.
显然，事情并不是这样发展的。
Like, obviously, that's not the way these things play out.
是的。
Yeah.
完全同意。
A 100 I I a 100% agree.
写得非常好。
It was so well written.
非常有趣。
It was so interesting.
是的。
Yeah.
它贯穿了整个叙事。
It carried through the the whole narrative.
它收集了所有我们应当讨论的相关细节。
It collected all of the details, all of the relevant details that we should be talking about.
让我感到困惑的是，当市场决定抛售几乎所有资产，至少是所有软件类股票时。
And then the the part where I it lost me was when the market decided to sell pretty much everything or at least everything in software.
软件板块下跌了5%。
Software was down 5%.
你看到许多大公司股价大幅下跌。
You saw very big names falling.
DoorDash下跌了多达6%，因为
DoorDash fell as much as 6% because
当然。
Sure.
为什么不呢？
Why not?
因为这个人写道，人工智能将从根本上取代它。
Because this guy wrote that AI would essentially replace it.
你对这篇文章的实际论点怎么看？
What do you make of the actual argument of the piece?
它的核心论点是，人工智能将变得如此强大、高效，以至于会以各种意想不到的方式摧毁我们的经济。
Which is essentially that AI is gonna be so incredible, so productive that actually it's going to destroy our economy in all of these unexpected ways.
GDP会增长。
GDP will grow.
产出会很多，但经济本身将陷入结构性危机。
There will be a lot of output, but the economy itself will be in a a state of structural crisis.
这只能是由一个从不雇佣任何人、也没有任何客户、从未真正做过生意的人写出来的。
This could only be written by someone who employs no people and has no customers and has never really been in business before.
这就像一篇由非常聪明的Z世代或千禧一代撰写的观点文章，但他们根本不理解经济中的摩擦并不是那些带着友好面孔的烦人小事。
It's a it's a it's like a Gen Z slash millennial think piece written by very bright people, of course, who don't understand that the frictions in the economy are not just like these annoying things with a friendly face.
现实世界中的关系并不是说：‘哦，这里有个摩擦，我们派个销售员去解决它，于是它就会永远存在。"
The relationships in the real world are not just like, oh, here's a friction, but we put a salesperson in front of it and therefore it'll persist forever.
因为企业家真正理解的是——我不是指那些想开对冲基金的企业家。
Because the thing that business owners understand is that and I don't mean business owners like I want a hedge fund.
我不是整天坐在彭博终端前的那种人。
I sit in front of a Bloomberg all day.
我是指那些真正经营着需要面对面互动生意的人。
I mean, like people that actually run businesses where there is like face to face interaction.
我们所有人都默认知道的是，每个企业本质上都是一个问题的解决方案。
The thing that we all implicitly know is that every business effectively is a solution to a problem.
是的。
Yes.
即使是最抽象的例子，比如我马上能想到的例子，医院就是一个企业，它解决的是人们生病并希望康复的问题。
Even like like even like the most abstract example, because the the the examples that are right at my fingertips, a hospital is a business and it's solving the problem of people being sick and wanting to get better.
好吧，这个很简单。
Okay, that's easy.
四季酒店是什么？
What is the Four Seasons?
它是一个问题的解决方案。
It's a solution to a problem.
人们想要娱乐，或者想去旅行，但他们有足够的财力和足够高的标准，普通的酒店无法满足他们。
People want to be entertained slash they want to travel to places, but they have the means and the standards that are high enough where a regular hotel won't do.
所以，如果你把企业看作仅仅是解决问题的方案——而它们确实就是——那么这篇文章的意思就是，我们终将无问题可解。
So like if you think of businesses as just solutions to problems, which is really all they are, then what this is this piece is saying is that we're going to run out of problems.
对。
Right.
得了吧。
Come on.
在人类社会十万年的进化过程中，我们真的会用完所有需要解决的问题吗？
In one hundred thousand years of of the evolution of human society, do we ever actually run out of problems to solve?
所以这种认为我们正处于后劳动经济时代、人们不再需要工作，因为没什么事可做的观点。
So this idea that we're in a post labor economy and people aren't going to have to work anymore because there's gonna be nothing for them to do.
我们难道集体失去理智了吗？
Like, are we losing our collective minds?
总会有一些问题需要解决，每一次技术浪潮都会解决旧问题，同时带来新问题。
There will always be problems to solve and every wave of technology solves old problems, introduces new ones.
而这种认为我们可以把所有事情都交给代理来替我们解决问题的观点。
And this idea that we'll be able to just turn everything over to agents who will solve problems on our behalf.
好吧。
Okay.
我同意，很多即将发生的事情确实如此。
I'll buy that a lot of what's going to happen is that great.
你以为我们就会安静地坐在房间里看书吗？
And you think we're just going to sit in a room quietly and read a book?
对。
Right.
不，我们会去创造新的问题。
No, we'll be out creating new problems.
想想一个律师。
Think about a think about a lawyer.
律师提起诉讼的根本限制是他没有足够的助理来处理文书工作。
The fundamental constraint of a lawyer filing lawsuits is he doesn't have enough associates to do the paperwork.
如果这个限制被消除，借助代理式AI，他可以无限制地提交文书。
What if that constraint were removed and utilizing agentic AI, he could file paperwork till his heart's content.
在这种情况下，他是提起更多的诉讼还是更少的诉讼？
Is he filing more or less lawsuits in that scenario?
对。
Right.
提起更多。
Filing more.
显然是更多。
Obviously more.
更多的诉讼意味着更多的人需要为自己辩护。
And more lawsuits means more people defending themselves against lawsuits.
你看，这个想法不是我想出来的。
And you see how this I didn't come up with this.
这个概念不是我提出的，但它非常重要。
I didn't come up with this concept, but it's a very important one.
有人在1955年说过，工作会膨胀以填满可用的时间。
Someone said in 1955, the work will expand to fit the the time available.
也就是说，我们拥有的时间越多，就会为自己创造越多的工作。
Like, the more time we have, the more work we will create for ourselves.
完全正确。
Absolutely.
直到
Until
你仔细想想，就会明白这些科幻作品的想法有多么荒谬。
you process that, you're not gonna understand just how misguided these types of sci fi writings really are.
是的。
Yeah.
它似乎还暗示，我们日常生活中所经历的这种摩擦，将因为人工智能而被彻底消除。
It seems to also say that this idea of friction, friction that we experience in our daily lives is going to be just totally eliminated as a concept because of AI.
也许我们在日常生活中会少感受到一些摩擦，但可能只是稍微少一点。
Maybe we'll see it less in our daily lives, maybe a little bit.
但即便如此，摩擦依然有人在处理。
But even so, I mean, the friction's still being handled by someone.
只是现在由人工智能来处理了。
It's just being handled by an AI now.
所以这仍然是一个生意。
So that's still a business.
这依然会创造价值。
That's still gonna create value.
这还将围绕它创造出一个完整的生态系统和经济。
That's still gonna create a whole ecosystem and an economy around it.
曾经有人整天待在电梯里，穿着制服，戴着一顶特别的帽子。
And there were people who used to sit on an elevator all day and they would wear a uniform and a special cap.
只有电梯操作员才能戴这顶帽子。
It was literally only the elevator guy could wear this cap.
是的。
Yeah.
当他为人们按楼层时，他就站在那里。
And he stood there when he pressed people's floors for them.
他操作电梯，或者这可能是按钮出现之前，他用的是操纵杆。
He operated the elevator or maybe this is before buttons and he used the lever.
有没有人想过，那些优秀的电梯操作员的工作都去哪儿了？
Is anyone like what happened to all the good elevator operator jobs?
曾经有卡车在布鲁克林四处行驶。
There were trucks that drove around Brooklyn.
它们是磨刀车。
They were knife sharpening trucks.
它们有和冰淇淋车一样的铃声，会缓缓驶过 neighborhoods。
They had the same bells as like an ice cream truck, and they would roll slowly through a neighborhood.
嗯。
Mhmm.
所有的妇女都会从厨房里跑出来，系着围裙，手里抱着一堆需要磨的刀。
And all all the the women would come running out of their kitchens, aprons on with an armful of knives that needed sharpening.
是的。
Yeah.
然后技术进步了，我们其实不再需要磨刀了。
And then the technology improved to the point where, hey, we don't actually need to sharpen knives.
我们直接把旧刀扔掉，买新的。
We throw them out and buy new ones.
是的。
Yeah.
当然，我们会看到颠覆性变化，整个职业类别都会消失。
It's like, of course, we're going to have disruption and entire categories of jobs being lost.
人们担心的是，这些变化会同时发生。
The thing that people are worried about is that they all happen at once.
是的。
Yes.
更现实的情况是，这种变化会一个行业接一个行业地推进。
The more realistic scenario is that this rolls industry through industry.
当每个行业都经历大量工作岗位的变动时，随之也会创造出新的岗位。
And as each industry sees lots of jobs be disrupted, it creates new ones in their wake.
我认为，大多数人最终会意识到，人工智能更像是资深员工的辅助工具，而不是替代品。
And look, I think what most people end up realizing is that AI is a better complement to experienced workers than it is a replacement.
这并不意味着没人会被取代。
Doesn't mean no one gets replaced.
这意味着那些没被取代的人会利用人工智能，开展更大的业务，从而在经济的其他领域创造更多就业机会。
It means the people that don't get replaced utilize AI and do bigger business, And that leads to more job creation in other areas of the economy.
每次都会这样。
It happens every time.
这次也会这样。
It'll happen this time.
某些领域会感到不适。
It'll be uncomfortable in certain pockets.
没人会对这一点感到幻想。
Nobody is is nobody's delusional about that.
没错。
Exactly.
问题是时间框架。
And the time frame the time frame is question.
就像在特定时间内会有多少工作被取代或取代？
It's like how many jobs will be replaced, displaced within a certain time frame?
在这个时间框架内有多少？
How many of them in that time frame?
这将带来颠覆性变化。
That's gonna be the disruption.
但说这彻底改变了整个宇宙的结构，我就开始感到困惑了。
But the idea that this has structurally changed the entire fabric of the universe, that's where it's I start to get lost.
我得在这里结束了。
I I do need to wrap us up here.
我认为这其中一个重要部分，或者至少让我非常感兴趣的是，市场对一篇发布在Substack上的博客的反应——正如你所说，那是一篇由一位非常聪明的人撰写的、极具创意和深度的深度文章。
I think a big piece of this or at least something that is very interesting to me is, again, the market's reaction to a blog that was posted on Substack by, as you call it, it was a think piece by a very smart person who wrote a very, very interesting and creative article.
这篇文章引发了巨大的抛售压力和巨额价值毁灭，这对我来说说明了投资者当前的心态。
And it inspired incredible selling pressure, incredible value destruction, which to me says something about how investors are feeling right now.
是的。
Yeah.
你曾提到一个术语叫HALO，代表重资产、低过时性，这正是投资者目前青睐的新类型公司，而这些公司与人工智能毫无关系。
Something that you have described, you you came up with this term HALO, which stands for heavy assets, low obsolescence, which is the new type of company that that investors seem to like right now, which is companies that have nothing to do with AI.
人工智能根本不会触及它们。
AI won't even touch it.
在我们结束之前，你能描述一下这个变得很流行的‘光环’术语吗？
So before we go, could you just describe this halo term that's gone gotten pretty popular?
《华尔街日报》写过一篇关于它的文章。
Wall Street Journal wrote an article about it.
这是你的术语。
It's your term.
请解释一下它的含义，以及投资者现在的心态。
Just describe what that means and how investors feel right now.
今年二月初，我在讨论那些处于52周高点的股票，它们的共同点是资产负债表上有大量资产，且过时风险很低。
So in early February, I was talking about the types of stocks that were on the fifty two week high list, and what they all had in common was they have heavy assets on their balance sheets and they have low obsolescence risk.
我突然意识到，这与金融危机后整个时期的趋势完全相反——那时我们痴迷于轻资产的商业模式。
And it occurred to me that this was a reversal of the entire post financial crisis period where we fetishized the opposite asset light businesses.
我们想要的是有订阅收入、经常性收入、运营成本极低、资产负债表上几乎没有任何资产的公司。
We wanted companies with subscription revenue, ARR, very little cost of doing business and almost no assets on their balance sheet.
而现在，情况完全逆转了。
And now it's flipped.
这是反过来的。
It's the reverse.
你看看安海斯-布希、可口可乐、百事可乐这样的股票，你不可能在提示词里输入‘我要一瓶健怡可乐’，然后让别人生产出这个产品。
You look at stocks like Anheuser Busch, Coca Cola, Pepsi, you cannot type, I want a diet Coke into a prompt and have somebody else create that product.
这是无法被颠覆的。
It's it it is not disruptable.
天然气输送管线、公用事业、卡特彼勒、迪尔公司，几乎所有与重工业相关的股票，实际上都完全符合‘光环’特征。
Natural gas transmission lines, utilities, Caterpillar, deer, most stocks that are related to heavy industry, in fact, completely halo.
而且在一个行业内部，有一些非常有趣的例子。
And there were some really fascinating examples inside of one industry.
你可以说Expedia很容易被人工智能颠覆。
You could say Expedia is highly disruptable by AI.
你可以规划行程、预订航班，让一个代理去浏览这些航空公司的网站，为你找到最优的行程，从而让Expedia失去市场。
You can plan trips, you can book flights, you can have an agent that scours these airline websites and find the optimal trip for you, putting Expedia out of business.
但在同一行业中，还有达美航空。
But within the same sector, there's Delta.
你能通过提示自己生成一架该死的飞机吗？
Can you prompt yourself a fucking airplane?
显然不能。
Obviously not.
所以这是一个非常有趣的市场。
So this is a really interesting market.
这到底意味着什么，埃德？总结一下，它彻底推翻了人们在股市中一直持有的那些旧有观念。
What what this does, Ed, just to sum up, it throws out all these old paradigms that people think about in the stock market.
它粉碎了现在已无关紧要的增长与价值之分。
It crushes the growth versus value thing that's now irrelevant.
它消除了周期性与防御性之分。
It gets rid of cyclical versus defensive.
这个也无关紧要了。
That's irrelevant too.
它甚至打破了科技与非科技的划分，因为像苹果这样的某些科技股具有极强的护城河。
It even breaks the tech versus nontech idea because certain tech stocks like Apple are extremely halo.
你无法绕开实体的iPhone设备，而ChatGPT很可能只是成为iOS生态系统中的一个插件。
You cannot get around the physical iPhone device and ChatGPT is probably just gonna become a plug in to the iOS ecosystem.
所以苹果是光环企业，而Adobe不是。
So Apple is halo while Adobe is not.
我认为这是看待股市的一个非常重要的视角，而且我认为这种动态在今年余下的时间里仍将保持重要。
So I think that that's a really important prism through which to view the stock market, and I think that dynamic will remain important throughout the rest of the year.
完全正确。
Absolutely.
我们还能讨论很多其他内容。
Lots more that we could discuss.
我的理解是，人们现在非常困惑，也非常焦虑。
I mean, again, my takeaway, people are very confused and very anxious right now.
他们一直遵循的所有范式都被彻底推翻了，而要弄清楚哪些范式真正有效，却让人非常困惑。
All of the paradigms that they've been following are just being thrown out the window, and it's very confusing to see which ones it.
实际上起作用。
Actually work.
适应吧
Get used
如果容易的话，早就做了。
it were easy, could do it.
适应吧。
Get used to it.
说得对极了。
That's exactly right.
乔什·布朗，非常感谢你抽出时间。
Josh Brown, thanks very much for your time.
干杯，埃德。
Cheers, Ed.
广告后，来自Blue Owl的预警信号。
After the break, warning signs from Blue Owl.
如需获取更多市场洞察，欢迎订阅我的每周通讯，地址是：edwardelson.substack.com。
And for even more markets insights, you can subscribe to my weekly newsletter simply put at edwardelson.substack.com.
本节目由以下赞助商支持：经营企业已经够难了，为什么还要用十几个互不相通的应用程序让事情变得更复杂呢？
Support for this show comes from Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other?
介绍 Odoo。
Introducing Odoo.
这是你一生中唯一需要的商业软件。
It's the only business software you'll ever need.
它是一个一体化、完全集成的平台，能让您的工作更轻松。
It's an all in one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier.
客户关系管理、会计、库存、电子商务，等等。
CRM, accounting, inventory, ecommerce, and more.
最棒的是什么？
And the best part?
Odoo 以极低的成本取代了多个昂贵的平台。
ODOO replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost.
因此，成千上万家企业已经选择了切换到 Odoo。
That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch.
那你为什么不呢？
So why not you?
前往 odoo.com 免费试用 Odoo。
Try Odoo for free at odoo.com.
就是 odoo.com。
That's odoo.com.
本内容由 Stonyfield Organic 赞助提供。
This is advertiser content brought to you by Stonyfield Organic.
我们的奶牛，它们出去吃草，特别喜欢。
Our cows, them going out to pasture, they love it.
它们一出去就特别兴奋。
They're so excited to go out.
每天，它们都在门口等着。
Every day, they wait right at the door.
事实上，我们挤完奶后，就打开通道，让它们直接出去吃草。
In fact, We milk them and we just open up the laneway and let them just go right out to pasture.
我是伦达·米勒·古德里奇，是一名来自佛蒙特州卡博特的乳农。
I'm Rhonda Miller Goodrich and I'm a dairy farmer in Cabot, Vermont.
我们的农场叫莫莉溪农场。
Our farm is Molly Brook Farm.
我们是一家有机乳品农场，为Stonyfield供货。
We're an organic dairy farm and we are a supplier to Stonyfield.
莫莉溪农场自1835年以来就一直属于我丈夫的家族。
Molly Brook Farm has been in my husband's family since 1835.
我们于2015年开始进行有机转型。
We started our organic transition in 2015.
我们当时有53英亩的玉米地，不得不使用除草剂和杀虫剂，土壤实际上已经完全失去了生机。
We had 53 acres of corn ground and of course we had to use herbicides and pesticides and the soil was dead really for all intents purposes.
我们停止了玉米种植，也不再使用除草剂和杀虫剂，转而种植了多年生牧草。
We stopped growing corn and stopped using herbicides and pesticides and we seeded that down to perennial grasses.
之后，我们再次看到了土壤中生物多样性的恢复。
After that, we began to see biodiversity in that soil again.
要获得有机认证，我们的奶牛每年必须在牧场放养至少120天。
To be organic certified, our cows need to be in pasture at least 120.
我认为有机养殖方式确实对我们的牲畜有益。
I think the organic practices really benefit our animals.
你知道，提供优质的饲料、干净的水源和良好的光照环境，这对我们来说很重要，对Stonyfield也是如此。
You know, having good feed, good water, a nice light area, that's what's important to us and that's what's important at Stonyfield.
访问 stonyfield.com 查找您附近的Stonyfield有机酸奶。
Visit stonyfield.com to find Stonyfield Organic Yogurt near you.
本节目由Wix赞助。
Support for this show comes from Wix.
您可以使用Wix制作一个外观精美的网站，并且完全按照您的方式来操作。
You can make a great looking website with Wix, and you can do it your way.
无论您希望AI协助还是偏好亲力亲为，都可以通过Wix的AI网站构建器在几分钟内获得一个定制化且即用的网站，或者从2000多个模板中选择。
Whether you want AI to jump in or prefer to do things yourself, get a custom ready to use website in minutes with Wix's AI website builder, or choose from more than 2,000 templates.
获取专为您的业务量身定制的内置解决方案，并享受便捷无忧的域名注册和包含在内的网页托管服务。
Get built in solutions tailored to your business and enjoy easy, fuss free domain registration, web hosting included.
Wix 为全球超过两亿八千万家企业提供支持。
Wix powers more than 280,000,000 businesses around the world.
因为使用 Wix，你可以保持个性，自由创造，无畏扩张。
Because with Wix, you can own your individuality, create freely, and scale fearlessly.
准备好创建你的网站了吗？
Ready to create your website?
前往 wix.com。
Go to wix.com.
就是 wix.com。
That's wix.com.
我们继续回到 Profty Markets 的内容。
We're back with Profty Markets.
Blue Owl Capital 正处于私人信贷新恐慌的中心。
Blue Owl Capital is at the center of a new panic over private credit.
最近几周，投资者试图从这家资产管理公司撤资。
In recent weeks, investors have attempted to pull their money from the asset manager.
这些请求部分源于对该公司对软件借款人风险敞口的担忧。
Those requests are driven in part by concerns over the company's exposure to software borrowers.
随着提款需求增加，BlueOwl 正在关闭其一只私募信贷基金的赎回通道。
Now following the increased demand for withdrawals, BlueOwl is shutting the gates on one of its private credit funds.
投资者将不能再每季度申请提取资金。
Investors will no longer be able to ask to withdraw their money every quarter.
相反，该公司将通过出售资产，每季度提供有限的流动性。
Instead, the firm will sell assets and offer limited liquidity on a quarterly basis.
这一消息公布后，BlueOwl 的股价下跌了 10%，抛售潮也波及了其他另类资产管理公司。
Shares of BlueOwl plunged 10% on the news, and the sell off rippled across other alternative asset managers as well.
Ares、Apollo 和黑石的股价均下跌超过 5%。
Ares, Apollo, and Blackstone fell more than 5%.
那么，BlueOwl 究竟是什么？为什么它要阻止投资者提取现金？
So what exactly is BlueOwl, and why is it preventing its investors from withdrawing cash?
今天我们邀请到《金融时报》美国金融评论员罗伯特·阿姆斯特朗，为我们解答这些问题。
Here to help us answer these questions, we're speaking with Robert Armstrong, US financial commentator for the Financial Times.
罗布，欢迎再次回到Prophecy Markets。
Rob, welcome back to Prophecy Markets.
我想和你聊聊Blue Owl。
I want to get into Blue Owl with you.
我一直在新闻里看到这个名字。
I keep on seeing this name in the news.
我知道他们大概做什么，但不太清楚。
I kind of know what they do, but not really.
你能先给我们简单介绍一下吗？
Can you just start off for us?
Blue Owl是什么？
What is Blue Owl?
我们为什么应该关注他们？
Why should we even care about them?
Blue Owl是一家大型的，我该怎么称呼它呢？
Blue Owl is a large what would I call them?
固定收益投资者。
Fixed income investor.
他们管理着多种基金，以不同方式为投资者进行信贷投资。
So they run assorted funds that manage credit investments on behalf of investors in various different ways.
他们在这一领域是重要的参与者。
And they're a big player in the space.
他们已经存在很长时间，并且赚了很多钱。
They've been around for a long time, and they've made a lot of money.
因此，他们是一个重要的参与者，尤其是在私人信贷领域，而私人信贷正是过去几年最热门的资产类别。
So they're they're a meaningful player, especially in private credit, which is, of course, kind of the asset du jour of the last couple of years.
所以谈谈为什么私人信贷会成为最热门的资产，因为这可能是这个故事的关键部分。
So talk a little bit about how it is the asset du jour because I think that's a big piece of the story here.
它之所以对人们重要，是因为私人信贷突然变得非常重要，而过去并非如此。
The reason why it probably matters to people is because private credit is suddenly a big deal, and it used to not be.
过去确实不是。
It used to not be.
一个新的资产类别并不常出现。
And it's not so often that a new asset class kind of appears.
对吧？
Right?
如今，私人信贷已经成为一种机构——比如一家有声誉的机构——会在其投资组合中配置的资产类别。
The last you know, private credit is now something that an institution say, you know, a respectable institution will have a private credit allocation in their portfolio.
而这一点在三四年甚至五年前可能并不成立。
And that might not have been true three or four or five years ago.
再往前推三十年，当时垃圾债券才刚刚成为人们热衷的新资产类别。
And, you know, you have to go back thirty years before that when kind of junk bonds became, like, this new asset class that people were getting into.
我认为这个资产类别的魅力有两个方面。
And I think the magic of the asset class has two parts.
一方面，它被认为能提供类似固定收益的回报，比如高收益债券的回报，但会略高一些，因为你贷款给的是特殊一类的借款人。
One is that it is reputed to have fixed income like returns, like the returns you might get from high yield bonds, but with a little bump because you are lending to a special class of borrowers.
这些基金向那些出于某种原因希望避开公开市场的借款人提供贷款。
The these funds are lending to borrowers who for one reason or another would like to avoid public markets.
要么他们不希望有公开市场的关系，而是希望与贷款方建立双边关系，要么他们的业务性质使得大型市场难以理解，或者他们的现金流不稳定，或者出于其他原因，他们不想受到高收益债券市场每日波动的影响。
Either they don't want you know, they want a bilateral relationship with their lender or their business is such that it's hard for larger markets to understand or their cash flows are uneven or for whatever reason, they don't want to be buffeted by the the daily grind of of the high yield bond market.
因此，他们会与贷款方达成一笔双边交易，而贷款方会向他们收取稍高的利率。
So they do a bilateral deal with a lender who charges them a little bit more.
假设你在投资组合的高收益债券部分获得8%的回报，机构也是如此。
So let's say you were getting 8% on your your high yield bond part of your portfolio and institution.
也许私人信贷方能提供给你10%的回报，比如说。
Maybe the private credit guy offers you 10, let's say.
我只是随便举个例子，但你确实能获得一点额外收益。
I'm just kind of picking those up, but you get a little edge there.
这被称为获取流动性溢价。
And that is called reaping an illiquidity premium.
对吧？
Right?
你并没有参与债券市场。
You're not in the bond market.
你可以随时进出交易。
You can trade in and out all the time.
你转向私人信贷。
You go to private credit.
理论上，你能获得多几个百分点的收益，但你得被锁定在这个基金里五年，而大家都喜欢这样。
In theory, you get a couple more percentage points of yield, but you're, like, locked into this fund for five years, and everybody likes this.
额外的收益，人人都喜欢。
Extra yield, everybody loves it.
所以我们这里有一个规模迅速扩大的资产类别，是的。
So what we have here is this massively growing asset class Yes.
这个资产类别因为各种原因对很多人很有吸引力。
That is interesting to a lot of people for various reasons.
其中一个原因是他们可能不想进入公开市场。
One of them being they might not wanna go to the public markets.
这是针对借款人的。
That's for the borrowers.
对于借款人来说。
For the borrowers.
因为他们不想
Like it because they don't wanna
对于借款人来说。
For the borrowers.
对于出钱的人来说，他们赚了很多钱。
For the people who are lending the money, they're making a lot of money.
是的。
Yeah.
还有另一个非常重要的观点，这个观点待会儿在这场对话中会出现，我觉得我应该提一下，请允许我说。
There's another very important point, which I I I it's gonna come up in this conversation, which I I think I should mention Please.
那就是，持有这些私人贷款的基金的价值并不是每天都按市价计价。
Which is that the value of the funds that have these private loans in them are not mark to market every day.
对。
Yes.
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对吧？
Right?
它们大约每个季度才估值一次，或者类似的时间间隔，但频率非常低。
They're marked every quarter or so or however, but very infrequently.
机构投资者喜欢这一点的原因是，由于数学原理，私人信贷的回报看起来与公开市场无关。
And one of the things institutional investors love about this is that just because of the way the math works, this means that the returns from private credit look uncorrelated to public markets.
我不打算用投资组合构建的数学细节让你厌烦，但拥有一个不相关的投资组合更好。
And without boring you with the mathematics of portfolio construction, it's better to have an uncorrelated portfolio.
投资组合中不同资产的回报朝不同方向变动，会使整体回报在同等风险水平下更优。
The returns from different things in your portfolio moving in different directions makes the whole thing the the return for the level of risk superior
是的。
Yes.
在一个不相关的投资组合中。
In an uncorrelated portfolio.
但现在它可能实际上并不是不相关的。
Now it may not really be uncorrelated.
这种看似不相关的表现，是由于这些资产不像你的债券、高收益债券组合、股票组合或其他任何资产那样每日进行公允价值计量。
The the appearance of uncorrelation is created by the fact that the thing isn't mark to market every day like your bond, your your junk bond portfolio, your equity portfolio, or whatever else.
但这正是人们如此喜欢这种产品的一个非常重要的原因。
But that's a very important feature of why people like this product so much.
我认为这触及了为什么这一点重要，以及它可能成为一个真正问题的核心，人们已经开始讨论这个问题。
And I think this gets to the core of why this is important and perhaps could be a real problem and people are beginning to talk about this.
我认为这一切都归结于它的名称——私人信贷，这意味着你并不真正了解发生了什么。
And I think it all comes down to the name, which is private credit, which is you don't know what is really going on.
你看不到。
You don't see.
它不是按市价计价。
It's not mark to market.
你看不到真正发生的事情。
You don't see what's really happening.
你根本看不到真实的赎回情况。
You don't see really the redemptions.
你其实看不到这些投资的业绩表现。
You don't really see the performance of these investments.
这现在正成为一个真正的问题，尤其是在AI领域，BlueOwl一直是主要参与者，是的。
And this is now becoming a real issue, especially in the AI world where BlueOwl has been a huge player Yep.
向建设这些数据中心的项目借出巨额资金。
Loaning out tons and tons of money to build all of these data centers.
然后我们面临一个问题。
And then we're posed with the question.
就像，我们其实并不清楚这些债务的全部情况。
It's like, well, we don't really know what all of that debt is.
投资者一直担心的大问题是，有多少债务被用于建设这一基础设施。
And the big question that investors have been worried about is how much debt is being used to build out this infrastructure.
这把我们带到了我们正在与乔什·布朗讨论的这个话题上。
And this brings us to the the conversation that we've we're we're speaking with Josh Brown on this.
本周显然有一篇Citrini的博客文章引发了巨大反响，提出了AI与私人信贷之间关联的问题，以及这种关联可能对私人信贷生态系统造成的影响，以及我们可能看到多少违约。
There was obviously the the Citrini blog post that went absolutely haywire this week that brings up this issue, of what what AI and private credit's association with AI could do to the private credit ecosystem and how much default we might see in this ecosystem.
我的意思是，这里面内容很多。
So, I mean, a lot there.
这里面内容确实很多。
There's a lot there.
如果你能谈谈所有
If you could speak to all
这些内容。
of this.
你给了我们很多需要思考的东西。
Let me you've given us a lot to think about.
让我再进一步复杂化一下。
Let me complicate it even further.
关键是，这里有两个问题。
The the the point, there is two issues there.
其中一个问题是，私人信贷需要尽量保持独立。
One of them is that with private credit that you need to try to keep separate.
其中一个问题是缺乏透明度。
One of the issues is lack of transparency.
是的。
Mhmm.
我们对底层贷款的表现了解多少？
How much do we know about the performance of the underlying loans?
我们又对它们在并非每日按市价计价时的价值了解多少？
And how much do we know about what they are worth when they are not mark to market every day?
你知道，根据产品不同，透明度可能会更高或更低。
And, you know, you might have greater or lesser transparency depending on the product.
流动性是另一个问题。
Liquidity is a separate issue.
对吧？
Right?
但这两个问题在某种程度上是交织在一起的。
But the two kind of converge.
对吧？
Right?
因为当人们感到紧张时，不管对不对，也许这个AI问题确实值得关注，也许又不是。
Because when people get nervous, rightly or wrongly, you know, maybe this AI thing is really worth worrying about, and maybe it's not.
但只要人们感到紧张，流动性问题就会变成一个问题。
But as long as people are nervous, then the liquidity thing becomes an issue.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yes.
因为如果有一两个人开始撤资，而基金表示——就像Blue Owl旗下某只基金发生过的情况——基金对投资者进出设有上限。
Because if, you know, a couple people head for the exit and the fund says and something like this happened to one of Blue Owl's funds, and the fund has a limit on how many people can come or leave.
正如我们在讨论开始时所说，这些是长期贷款，属于双边协议。
As we said at the beginning of the discussion, these are long term loans, bilateral agreements.
你不能在投资者想退出时就随意清算。
You can't just liquidate when investors wanna leave.
因此，许多私人信贷基金都有赎回限制，每个季度只有有限的人可以退出。
So there's gates on a lot on a lot of these private credit funds, and only so many people can leave in a given quarter or so forth.
但无论如何，一旦有人被告知：实际上，我们已经达到限额了。
But, anyway, the instant anybody gets told, actually, we're up to our limit.
其他人就不能再退出了。
Nobody else can leave.
就在这一刻，所有人都想退出。
That is the moment where everybody wants to leave.
这正是本周刚刚发生的事情。
Which is exactly what has just happened this week.
对。
Right.
是的。
Yes.
好的。
Yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
这正是硅谷银行发生的情况。
It's exactly what happened to Silicon Valley Bank.
这是家银行
It's the bank
硅谷银行。
Valley Bank.
但你知道，硅谷银行这样的机构，你可以随时取出存款。
But, you know, it's but Silicon Valley Bank, they don't have you you you can take a deposit out of a bank anytime.
对。
Right.
私募信贷基金的关键在于，合同上明确写着，你只能在特定条件下取回资金。
The the point about a private credit fund is it says right on the wrapper, you're only gonna have an access access to your money back.
对于机构来说，可能需要好几年。
In the case of an institution, it might be years.
嗯嗯。
Mhmm.
而且你一开始就知道这一点，所以你必须和他们一起坚持下去。
And you kind of know that going in, and so you have to ride it out with them.
但当你要把这种机构级产品——其低流动性正是机构所适应的——推销出去时，故事才变得有趣。
But where the story gets interesting is when you try to sell this institutional product with the kind of low liquidity that institutions are designed to handle.
它们具有无限的存续期。
They have an infinite life.
它们拥有一个多元化的投资组合。
They have a diversified portfolio.
你难道不觉得，把这种绝佳的产品卖给散户投资者会很棒吗？
And you say, wouldn't it be great to sell this wonderful product to retail investors?
毕竟，真正的钱在于向退休人士销售产品。
Because after all, where the real money is is selling a product to retirees.
那是最大的资金池。
That's the biggest pile of money there is.
于是你把这种低流动性产品卖给零售投资者，而他们对流动性的要求却更高。
And so you take this product with low liquidity and you sell it to retail investors, they actually have higher demands for liquidity.
现在你试图去解决这个看似矛盾的问题。
And now you're trying to kind of square the circle.
你面对的是零售投资者，而不是机构投资者，他们需要并期待流动性，而你的产品本质恰恰是不提供流动性的。
You've got investors who are retail investors, not institutional investors who want and need liquidity, and you have a product whose very identity is in not providing liquidity.
再把你提到的AI因素掺杂进来，这就可能形成一种极其危险的组合。
And then you mix in the AI stuff you're talking about, and it can be quite a combustible mixture.
我知道刚才说了很多，但我认为，只要一出现关于信用质量的任何疑问，流动性问题就会立刻显现。
I I know that was a lot, but I I think the liquidity issue becomes live as soon as there's even questions about the the credit quality issue.
是的。
Yes.
完全正确。
A 100%.
而且我们正看到蓝 Owl 的股价因这条消息下跌了10%。
And and that is we're we're seeing shares of Blue Owl plunging 10% on this news.
我认为这是一个我们许多人尚未充分应对的故事，因为其中涉及太多复杂的因素。
I think this is a story that many of us are not fully tackling because there are so many complicated moving parts.
是的。
Yes.
但似乎已经到了我们必须讨论Blue Owl的时候了。
But it is getting to that point, it seems, that we do need to be talking about Blue Howe.
对。
Yeah.
我认为确实如此。
I think we do.
但我想向您和您的听众强调的一个重要观点是，您可能会陷入麻烦。
And but and the important point I'd like to make to you and to your listeners is that you can get in trouble.
在这样的时期，即使底层贷款质量良好，一个产品、一只基金也可能出问题。
A product you know, a fund can get in trouble at times like this even if the underlying loan quality is good.
我认为有充分的理由认为，Blue Owl这个产品中的贷款可能存在问题，你知道，它们原本打算合并，但没有合并，而且已经停止了赎回。
And I think there's good reason to think maybe the loans in this Blue Owl product that, you know, they were gonna merge and they didn't and they've stopped redemption so forth.
也许这些贷款其实没问题。
Maybe the maybe the loans are fine.
是的。
Yeah.
对吧？
Right?
但你把一个原本为机构投资者设计的产品卖给了零售投资者，还试图给他们一点流动性，这会让你自己陷入麻烦。
But because you are taking this product that is designed for institutional investors and selling it to retail investors and trying to give them a little bit of liquidity, you're setting yourself up for trouble.
对吧？
Right?
没人会等着看麻烦到底有多严重。
Nobody waits around to see how bad the trouble really is.
没错。
Exactly.
我想用一句话来结束：这位名叫奥兰多·吉姆斯的人，他是资产管理公司的首席投资官。
I I wanna end here with a a quote from the this guy this guy, Orlando Giems, chief investment officer for the asset management.
他说：‘我们今天在私人信贷中看到的警示信号，与2007年的情况惊人地相似。'
He said, quote, the red flags we are seeing in private credit today are strikingly familiar to those of 2007.
哦。
Oh.
这种比较我们越来越常见了。
This is a comparison we are seeing more and more.
是的。
Yeah.
你对这个说法怎么看？
What do you think of this statement?
这说法听起来相当有力。
It seems pretty strong.
我的意思是，你一开始提到的是对人工智能投资的担忧，这有点奇怪。
I mean, the weird thing you started you started us out with concerns about AI investment.
嗯。
Mhmm.
关于这些担忧，企业是否过度投资了？
And the thing about those concerns, have companies overinvested?
贷款能如期偿还吗？
Will the loans come good?
人工智能会不会颠覆我们所熟知的软件业务，等等等等？
Is AI gonna undermine the software business as we know it, etcetera, etcetera?
所有这些都属于中长期的担忧。
All those are concerns in kind of medium to long term.
所以现在出现了一种奇怪的情况：你所接触的企业，或者你融资的数据中心，等等，都在按时支付月度款项。
So it's this weird situation where the companies you're dealing with or the the data centers you're financing or whatever, like they're making their monthly payments.
收益也如预期般到账。
Earnings is coming in as is expected.
但地平线上有一件事，你知道它存在，也为此担忧，但它还没发生。
There's just this thing on the horizon that you know it's a thing and you're worried about it, but it's not today.
它今天还没有体现在收益、现金流或利息支付中。
It's not showing up in earnings or cash flows or interest payments today.
是的
Yep.
但明天呢？
But what about tomorrow?
这使得情况很难判断。
And that makes the situation really hard to judge.
在2007年，情况已经失控，当时根本没有现金流。
In 2007, the wheels were coming off, and there was no cash flow today.
对吧？
Right?
那个问题在当时就真实地发生了，而我们现在担心的是未来，我认为这是重要的区别。
That that problem happened very much in the present, whereas we're having anxieties about the future, and I think that's an important difference.
好的。
Alright.
罗布·阿姆斯特朗，英国《金融时报》美国金融评论员。
Rob Armstrong, US financial commentator for the Financial Times.
罗布，感谢你为我们梳理了这个复杂的话题，但我觉得你把事情简化了。
Rob, we appreciate you taking us through a complicated topic, but I think this simplified things.
谢谢。
Cheers.
好的。
Alright.
在我们结束之前，让我们回到那份引爆互联网并拖垮市场的Citrini研究博客。
Before we end here, let's return to this Citrini research blog that took the Internet by storm and took the markets down with it.
这是三周内第二篇引发病毒式传播的博客文章，它在一夜之间抹去了数千亿美元的市值，这更多地反映了投资者的情绪，而非博客本身的内容，因为你要记住，这些博客实际上并没有提供任何新信息。
This is the second viral blog post in three weeks that has erased hundreds of billions of dollars in market value overnight, which tells you more about how investors are feeling than about the blogs themselves because what you have to remember here is that these blogs aren't actually telling us anything new.
它们只是以富有创意和引人入胜的方式整合了现有信息，真正引发巨大反应的是它们激起我们的情感，而不是信息本身，正是这种情绪导致这些大型企业仅在几小时内就损失了高达5%、6%甚至7%的市值。
They are simply synthesizing existing information in a creative and interesting way, and it's the feeling they are arousing within us, not the information, that is causing these massive corporations to lose as much as five, six, 7% of their value within just a few hours.
所以，让我谈谈我对这篇再次引发市场崩盘的病毒博客的看法。
So let me give you my perspective on this viral blog that sent the markets into meltdown yet again.
首先，这是一篇非常出色的博客。
So first off, it's a really good blog.
这比我们几周前讨论的那篇博客好太多了。
It's way better than that other blog we discussed a few weeks ago.
它之所以这么好，是因为它把所有可能因人工智能而出现的相关问题都串联了起来。
And the reason it's so good is because it ties together all of the relevant issues that could materialize because of AI.
不仅仅是它可能如何颠覆软件行业，还包括它可能如何影响就业市场、消费经济、债务市场、保险行业等等。
Not just how it might disrupt software, but also how it might disrupt the job market and the consumer economy and the debt markets and the insurance industry and so on and so forth.
它展示了人工智能如何质疑我们系统中那些通常被我们视为理所当然的各个组成部分。
It illustrates how AI is calling into question all of the little pieces in our system that we tend to take for granted.
另一种说法是，它描述了阿斯沃斯·达莫达兰在我们周五的节目中警告我们的那些灾难性风险。
Another way to put it is that it describes the catastrophic risks that Aswath Damodaran was warning us about in our episode on Friday.
因此，从这个意义上说，这是一篇非常值得阅读的文章，我鼓励你们去读一读。
And so in that sense, it is a really good read, and I encourage you to read it.
但它真的值得市场出现如此灾难性的反应吗？
But does it warrant the cataclysmic reaction that we saw from the markets?
不值得。
No.
它并不值得。
It doesn't.
因为，再次强调，它并没有提供任何新信息。
Because, again, it doesn't tell us anything new.
事实上，它只是描述了一个假设情境，由于写作方式而显得像绝对事实，而且它使用了过去时态，仿佛所有这些事情都已经发生，这使得它显得更可怕。
In fact, it simply describes a hypothetical situation which sounds like an absolute because of the way it was written, and that is it's written in the past tense as if all this stuff actually happened, which makes it feel scarier.
但让我们说得清楚一点。
But let's be very clear.
整个帖子，从头到尾，都只是推测。
The entire post, top to bottom, is conjecture.
这是有根据的推测，但终究还是推测。
It's informed conjecture, but it is conjecture nonetheless.
此外，它还遗漏了几个关键点。
In addition, it also misses several key points.
例如，这篇博客的前提是，所有处理摩擦的公司——如律师事务所、软件公司和支付流程公司——都将慢慢消亡，因为人工智能将消除处理摩擦的业务。
For example, the premise of this blog is that all the companies that handle friction, so law firms and software companies and payments processes, they will all die a slow death because AI will eliminate the business of handling friction.
代理将为我们做一切事情。
Agents will be doing everything for us.
这可能在某种程度上是对的，但如果真是这样，那么处理摩擦的业务实际上并不会被消除。
Now that might be kind of true, but if that is the case, then the friction handling business won't actually be eliminated.
它只是转移到了一组新的参与者手中，也就是那些拥有代理的公司。
It will simply be transferred to a new set of players, namely the companies that own the agents.
这可能是一批新的公司。
Now that might be a new set of companies.
可能是OpenAI。
It could be OpenAI.
可能是Anthropic。
It could be Anthropic.
这会造成一些颠覆，或者也可能只是现有的公司群体。
That would cause some disruption, or it might just be the existing set of companies.
可能是大型科技公司，如果是这样，那些拥抱AI的公司将变得极其富有。
It could be big tech, in which case, those companies that embrace AI are going to get very, very rich.
换句话说，是的，这项技术是这个时代独有的，但颠覆的一般规律依然不变。
Put another way, yes, this technology is unique to this era, but the general rules of disruption remain the same.
正如Visa消除了支票支付的摩擦，它最终围绕信用卡建立了一个完整的商业模式，创造了就业机会，产生了价值，并像其他任何市场一样构建了一个生态系统。
Just as Visa eliminated the friction of paying by check, it ultimately created a whole business around that in credit cards, which did employ people and did generate value and ultimately created an ecosystem just like any other market.
这篇博客似乎有意忽略了这一现实。
This blog seems to conveniently ignore that reality.
它对AI可能带来的价值破坏描述得非常详细，但对AI也可能带来的价值创造却几乎闭口不谈。
It's very descriptive about the value destruction that AI could inspire, but it's almost silent on the value creation that it could also inspire.
这篇博客还有一些其他盲点，我们或许可以改天再讨论，但总而言之是这样。
There are some more blind spots in the blog that we can maybe discuss another time, but the net net is this.
这是一篇出色、富有创意且引人入胜的博客，但它本不该抹去三千亿美元的价值。
It was an excellent, creative, interesting blog that also shouldn't have erased $300,000,000,000 in value.
但它确实抹去了，这说明了投资者当前的真实感受。
But it did, which tells you how investors are really feeling right now.
焦虑、担忧，而且非常困惑。
Anxious, apprehensive, and very, very confused.
好的。
Okay.
今天就到这里。
That's it for today.
本集由克莱尔·米勒和艾莉森·魏斯制作，由乔尔·帕特森剪辑，本杰明·斯宾塞负责音效。
This episode was produced by Claire Miller and Alison Weiss, edited by Joel Patterson, and engineered by Benjamin Spencer.
我们的视频剪辑师是布拉德·威廉姆斯。
Our video editor is Brad Williams.
我们的研究团队包括丹·沙兰、伊莎贝拉·金泽尔、克里斯·奥多诺霍和米亚·西尔维里奥。
Our research team is Dan Shalan, Isabella Kinzel, Chris O'Donohue, and Mia Silverio.
我们的社交媒体制作人是杰克·麦克弗森。
And our social producer is Jake McPherson.
感谢收听Prophecy Media出品的《Prophecy Markets》。
Thanks for listening to Prophecy Markets from Prophecy Media.
如果你喜欢本期内容，请关注我们。
If you like what you heard, give us a follow.
我是埃德·埃尔森。
I'm Ed Elson.
明天见。
I will see you tomorrow.
本节目由Odoo赞助。
Support for this show comes from Odoo.
经营企业已经够难了，为什么还要用十几个互不相通的应用程序让事情变得更复杂呢？
Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other?
介绍Odoo。
Introducing Odoo.
这是你唯一需要的商业软件。
It's the only business software you'll ever need.
它是一个一体化、完全集成的平台，让您的工作更轻松。
It's an all in one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier.
客户关系管理、会计、库存、电子商务等。
CRM, accounting, inventory, ecommerce, and more.
最棒的是什么？
And the best part?
Odoo 以极低的成本取代了多个昂贵的平台。
Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost.
因此，成千上万家企业已经转向了 Odoo。
That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch.
那你为什么不来试试呢？
So why not you?
前往 odoo.com 免费试用 Odoo。
Try Odoo for free at odoo.com.
就是 odoo.com。
That's odoo.com.
本节目由 CoreWeave 赞助。
Support for the show comes from CoreWeave.
无论你看向哪里，人工智能都在拓展我们曾经认为的极限，而这一切的核心正是 CoreWeave。
Everywhere you look, AI is expanding what we thought was And at the center of it all is CoreWeave.
医疗研究与诊断、教育、电影中的复杂视觉效果、科技突破。
Medical research and diagnosis, education, complex visual effects for movies, science and technology breakthroughs.
CoreWeave 为全球的 AI 先驱者提供专为 AI 打造的技术，构建前所未有的东西。
CoreWeave powers AI pioneers around the world with purpose built tech, building what's never been built before.
CoreWeave 是 AI 所需的云端基础设施。
CoreWeave is the essential cloud for AI.
随时准备应对一切，随时准备迎接 AI。
Ready for anything, ready for AI.
要了解更多关于 CoreWeave 如何赋能全球顶尖 AI 的信息，请访问 coreweave.com/ready-foranything。
To learn more about how CoreWeave powers the world's best AI, go to coreweave.com slash ready for anything.
在销售领域，效率才是关键。
When it comes to sales, efficiency is the name of the game.
你每花一分钟手动输入数据或追要文件，就错失了一次成交的机会。
Every minute you spend manually entering data and chasing down documents is a lost opportunity to close the deal.
这就是 Pipedrive 的用武之地。
That's where Pipedrive comes in.
Pipedrive 通过为整个团队自动化流程，大幅提升每笔销售的效率。
Pipedrive lets you supercharge every sale by automating the process for your entire team.
从安排销售电话到电子邮件营销，这是一个由销售人员为销售人员打造的强大而简洁的 CRM 系统。
From scheduling sales calls to email marketing, it's a powerful simple CRM built by salespeople for salespeople.
加入已使用 Pipedrive 的十多万家公司行列吧。
Join the over 100,000 companies already using Pipedrive.
无需信用卡或任何付款。
No credit card or payment needed.
只需访问 pipedrive.com/vox 即可开始使用。
Just head to pipedrive.com/vox to get started.
访问 pipedrive.com/vox，享受三十天免费试用。
That's pipedrive.com/vox and get started with a thirty day free trial.
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