为什么美国的通胀问题不会消失

本节目由BCX赞助，这是私营科技公司的公开股票代码。

Support for the show comes from BCX, the public ticker for private tech.

美国股市开启了历史上规模最大的财富创造浪潮，从底特律的工厂工人到奥马哈的农民，人人都受益。

The US stock market started history's greatest wave of wealth creation from factory workers in Detroit to farmers in Omaha.

任何人都能拥有这些伟大美国公司的股份。

Anyone can own a piece of the great American companies.

但如今，最具创新力的公司长期保持私有状态，普通美国人一直无缘参与——直到现在。

But today, our most innovative companies are staying private longer, which means everyday Americans are missing out until now.

推出VCX，私营科技公司的公开股票代码，现已在所有股票交易平台上线。

Introducing VCX, a public ticker for private tech, now available wherever you buy stocks.

了解更多，请访问getvcx.com。

Visit getvcx.com for more info.

网址是getvcx.com。

That's getvcx.com.

投资前请仔细阅读相关材料，包括投资目标、风险、费用和开支。

Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses.

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This and other information can be found in the fund's prospectus at getvcx.com.

本节目为付费赞助内容。

This is a paid sponsorship.

推荐有时候真的挺管用的。

Recommendations can be amazing.

比如说，也许有人推荐了你最近超爱的那部剧。

I mean, maybe someone recommended that TV show you've been obsessed with lately.

但要是说到家里装修，那就另当别论了。

But when it comes to home projects, it's different.

要是剧不好看，顶多浪费点时间。

If you don't like a show, you might lose a few minutes.

可要是你找朋友的朋友的朋友来修漏水的天花板，搞不好厨房就得淹了。

If you hire a friend of a friend of a friend to fix a leaky ceiling, you could end up with a flooded kitchen.

光靠‘我认识个人’这种说法，怕是解决不了你家的问题。

Maybe I know a guy just isn't enough for your home.

这就是Thumbtack如此有效的原因。

That's why Thumbtack works so well.

他们会为你匹配一位评分最高的本地专业人士，你还能在应用里直接查看他们过往的作品照片、资质和用户评价。

They'll match you with a top rated local pro, and you can see photos of past work, credentials, and reviews all right in the app.

下次做家装项目时，试试Thumbtack吧。

For your next home project, try Thumbtack.

今天就雇个靠谱的专业人士吧。

Hire the right pro today.

如果你晒太阳，可能会被晒伤，但有些人就是愿意冒这个险。

If you sit in the sun, you may just get burned, but some people are willing to take that chance.

有种消极的心态，觉得反正世界已经够糟了。

There is this certain degree of nihilism of like, oh, well, the world is bad anyway.

那我为什么不能也晒个黑呢？

Why wouldn't I just also get a tan?

拼命晒黑。

Tan maxing.

这就是本周的《为你解释》。

That's this week on explain it to me.

你可以在任何听播客的地方找到最新一期。

Find new episodes wherever you get your podcasts.

货币市场太疯狂了。

Money market's mad.

如果钱是邪恶的，那栋楼就是地狱。

If money is evil, then that building is hell.

节目还得继续。

Show goes on.

这个人根本不想做节目。

The person never wants a show.

节目。

Show.

欢迎来到《Prof G 市场》。

Welcome to Prof G Markets.

我是埃德·埃尔森。

I'm Ed Elson.

今天是7月15号。

It is July 15.

咱们来看看昨天的市场关键数据。

Let's check-in on yesterday's market vitals.

主要股指因为通胀数据好于预期而上涨。

The major indices climbed on a better than expected inflation report.

稍后详细说说这个。

More on that in a minute.

通胀数据还导致国债收益率下降。

The inflation reading also sent treasury yields lower.

与此同时，布伦特原油价格下跌，因为特朗普总统放弃了在霍尔木兹海峡对货物征收20%费用的计划。

Meanwhile, Brent crude declined after president Trump scrapped his idea for a 20% fee on cargo in the Strait Of Hormuz.

最后，IBM在提前公布财报不及预期后，股价暴跌了25%。

And finally, IBM plunged 25% after preannouncing earnings that missed expectations.

这是它有史以来最糟糕的一天。

It was its worst day of all time.

明白了。

Okay.

还有哪些动态？

What else is happening?

六月份的通胀率降至年率3.5%，低于经济学家的预期。

Inflation cooled to an annual rate of three and a half percent in June, which was lower than economists had predicted.

五月至六月间，消费者价格下降了0.4%。

Consumer prices fell point 4% between May and June.

这是自2020年4月以来最大的单月降幅。

That was the largest one month decrease since April 2020.

这一降幅主要得益于美国与伊朗停火后能源价格下跌，缓解了对供应中断的担忧，但这种缓解可能不会持续太久。

Much of that drop was driven by lower energy prices after The US Iran ceasefire eased fears of supply disruptions, but that relief may be short lived.

上周，特朗普总统宣布停火结束。

Last week, of course, president Trump declared the ceasefire over.

昨天，美国对伊朗目标发动了新一轮空袭。

And yesterday, The US launched a new round of strikes on Iranian targets.

布伦特原油价格因此回升至每桶85美元左右，这意味着能源价格和通胀可能再次上升。

Brent crude has since climbed back to around $85 a barrel, raising the prospect that energy prices and inflation could move higher again.

今天我们邀请到穆迪分析公司的首席经济学家马克·赞迪，来和我们聊聊这份通胀报告。

So joining us to discuss this inflation report, we are speaking with Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.

马克，很高兴见到你。

Mark, great to see you.

感谢你参加我们的节目。

Thank you for joining us on the show.

通胀确实降下来了。

Inflation's come down.

之前一度高达4.2%，那可是相当高了。

We were at 4.2, which was really high.

现在降到3.5%了，虽然还是偏高，但比预期要低。

We're now down to 3.5, still pretty high, but lower than expected.

不过我觉得更大的问题是，这其中有多少是因为六月油价下跌导致的？

I think the bigger question, though, is how much of that was because oil prices went lower in June?

我这么问是因为油价当然又在涨，这让我觉得通胀可能不会就此稳定下来。

And I ask that because oil prices are, of course, rising again, which makes me think maybe this is not here to stay.

对。

Yeah.

你刚才说通胀已经放缓到3.5%，这确实有点奇怪。

It's odd when you said inflation is easing to 3.5%.

你知道，情况正在好转。

You know, that that it is easing.

虽然降下来了，但你知道，还是高得让人难受，高得让人不舒服。

It's down, but, you know, it's still awfully high, uncomfortably high.

大家都知道，美联储的目标通胀率是2%。

You know, as everyone knows, the Fed's target, what is 2% inflation.

这通常被认为是比较舒适的通胀水平。

That's kind of what we take as being a comfortable rate of inflation.

我觉得，撇开数据中那些杂乱无章的因素，真正的核心通胀率大概在那个水平。

And I think under what I'll call underlying inflation, of abstracting from all the vagaries of the data.

顺便说一句，这份报告里信息量很大，但也很混乱。

And by the way, in this report, there was a lot of noise.

我不知道你有没有注意到，这份报告其实特别杂乱。

I don't know if you noticed, but it was a very noisy report.

数据里一堆异常值，我也不太确定该拿它当多大参考。

And you know, a lot of anomalies in the data, and I'm not sure how much to read into it.

但抛开这些不说，我觉得核心通胀率大概在百分之三到三点五之间，还是高得让人不安。

But you know, abstracting from that, I think underlying inflation is kind of three to three and a half percent, somewhere in there, again, uncomfortably high.

这还没算上战争带来的能源价格波动——那段时间战争刚爆发，春末夏初的时候，能源价格推高了通胀，现在又反过来压低了通胀。

And that's abstracting from the swings in energy prices related to the war, which obviously, you know, added a lot to inflation, you know, coming into the war back in the spring, early summer, and is now detracting from inflation.

撇开这些因素，我们现在的通胀水平依然非常高，让人很不踏实。

But abstracting from that, you know, we're at a very high, uncomfortable level of inflation.

而这还是在经历了好几年超高通胀之后的情况。

It's and this is after a number of years of very high inflation.

事实上，通胀率已经连续五年高于美联储的目标了。

In fact, the inflation's been above the Fed's target for five years.

所以生活成本高得惊人。

And so the cost of living is extraordinarily high.

这反映了多年来高通胀累积的影响。

It reflects the cumulative effect of those high rates of inflation.

我觉得大家对这种情况都感到非常不安。

And I think people just are feeling very uncomfortable with that.

希望伊朗局势能朝着好的方向发展，让通胀压力逐渐缓解，但正如你所说，这现在又成了一个新的风险。

And hopefully, the Iran war moves in the wrong right direction here and begins to abate, but as you point out, that that's now a a new risk.

我觉得关键问题是，这会成为一种趋势吗？

I think the the big question is, is this gonna be the trend?

我们还能继续看到数据下降吗？

Will we keep seeing the number go down?

这正是我想从这份报告里弄清楚的。

And that's what I'm trying to understand from this report.

这是否说明通胀现在真的开始回落了，还是只是暂时的波动？

Does this tell us that inflation is now headed in the right direction, specifically down, or is this a blip?

因为上个月的情况是，尤其是能源市场，大家似乎觉得战争已经结束了。

Because what we know about last month is that, you know, specifically when we look at the energy markets, people seem to think the war was over.

可现在到了七月，价格又涨上去了，人们又觉得不对劲了。

Now here we are in July, prices are going back up, and people seem to think, no.

这可不是因为总统说了什么才这样的。

It's not because the president told us as much.

显然，很多事情取决于总统会怎么做，或者会不会让霍尔木兹海峡重新开放，让石油重新流通。

I mean, obviously, a lot depends on what the president does or doesn't do and whether the strait reopens and we get oil flowing through or not.

我的意思是，鉴于这些起起落落和反复变化，我们根本没法确定到底会怎样。

I I mean, I think the and the only there's no way to know for sure, obviously, given the ups and downs and all the rounds here.

我觉得最有可能的情况是，总统和伊朗政权都有很强的动力去解决这个问题，慢慢让海峡重新开放，让石油流通起来，从而压低油价，他们最终会找到办法的。

You know, I think the most likely scenario is that the incentives here for the president and the Iranian regime to figure this out and open up the strait, you know, over time and get oil flowing, get oil prices down are pretty high, and that they will figure that out.

但我也得说，我对这件事可能走向何方其实一点把握都没有。

But obviously I say that with no confidence that this can go in a boatload of directions.

如果我们假设我说得对，油价下跌，通胀继续回落，这需要时间。

And if we just assume I'm right, oil prices come down and inflation continues to come in, it'll be a it'll take time.

不会那么快就见效。

It's not gonna come in fast.

会拖得很久。

It's gonna be sticky.

我觉得这里头还有其他不少因素在起作用。

You know, I think that there's a lot of other things going on here.

人工智能正在推高通胀。

You know, artificial intelligence is juicing up inflation.

移民政策也在推高通胀。

The immigration policy is juicing up inflation.

有太多事情在同时发生，就算总统的政策能按计划推进，通胀也不会很快下降。

There's just a lot of slew of things going on that suggest that while inflation will come in, assuming the Ron word sticks roughly to script, it's not gonna come in fast.

会缓慢而且顽固地回落，可能要两三年后，我们才能回到大家都觉得安心的水平。

It's gonna come in slow and sticky, and it might not be a couple, three years before we get back to anything we all feel comfortable with.

你觉得利率会从目前的3.5%在接下来几个月继续上升吗？

Do you expect that three and a half will it'll go up from three and a half over the next few months?

还是会下降呢？

It'll go go down?

我的意思是，从大方向上看，你认为接下来会怎么走？

I mean, what directionally, where do you think we're headed?

我觉得整体趋势是下行的。

I think we're directionally lower.

前提是，假设中东局势别失控，油价能维持在当前水平，比如每桶80到85美元，那我觉得通胀确实会回落。

Again, assuming that, you know, the raw and war doesn't go off the rails here and and oil prices stay where they roughly where they are, let's say, or $80.85 bucks a barrel, then I do think we will see it come in.

另外，谈到通胀，还有一个非常根本的因素，就是劳动力市场。

Because the other thing to consider on inflation that's really fundamental is the job market.

这关系到工资和劳动力成本，而这是推动通胀最核心的动力。

You know, that goes to wages and cost of labor, and that is the single most important driving force of inflation.

但目前来看，劳动力市场已经有所降温。

And right now the labor market is soft.

上一份就业报告就已经显示了这一点。

You know, we saw that in the last jobs report.

我们创造的就业岗位不多，劳动力市场中的闲置压力还在持续上升。

We're not creating a whole lot of jobs, and there's a lot of, there's slack in the labor market that's continuing to increase.

这给工资增长带来了下行压力。

That's putting downward pressure on wages.

无论哪个收入层级，工资涨幅都低于通胀率，而且还在进一步放缓。

Wage growth is below the rate of inflation and slowing across all different wage groups.

这最终会推动通胀率下降。

And that should ultimately drive the rate of inflation lower.

但同样，这是一个过程。

But again, that's a process.

需要时间才能见效。

That takes time.

不可能在一两个月甚至三个月内就看到变化。

That doesn't happen in a month or two or three.

这得花上一两年甚至三年的时间。

That happens in a year two or three.

看看美国的通胀率和其他国家相比，我们现在是七国集团里通胀最高的，这挺有意思，因为之前我们好像最能扛住油价波动，尤其是伊朗战争的影响。

Just looking at The US inflation rate compared to other nations, we currently have the highest inflation rate in the g seven, which is quite interesting because it seemed as though we were kind of the most sheltered from what was happening to oil prices as a result of, the Iran war.

但现在看来，情况并非如此。

But now I guess that's not really the case.

你说，我们怎么反而比许多其他经济体处境更糟？

I mean, what do you make of the fact that we're actually in a worse spot now than many of our peers?

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得这是因为大多数其他国家都会补贴能源价格，或者直接管控价格。

I think that goes to the fact that most other countries provide subsidies or regulate the price of energy.

他们不让成本完全转嫁到消费者身上。

They don't let it pass through.

欧洲人就不让油价直接传导到市场。

You know, the Europeans don't let it pass through.

有些国家确实会，比如一些亚洲国家，但大多数都不会。

Some countries do, you know, some Asian countries, but most don't.

美国的情况很不一样，油价一涨，汽油、柴油、航油的价格马上就跟着涨。

The US is very different in that the as soon as oil prices go up, our cost of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel goes immediately up.

这带来不少问题，大家的购买力都在下降，实际收入在减少，经济也受到拖累。

Now there's problems with that, and that is, you know, we're all struggling with lower purchasing power, real incomes are declining, and it's hurting the economy.

但好处是，我们调整得快得多。

But the benefit of that is that we adjust a lot more quickly.

我们会减少开车，少坐飞机，物流运输也变得更高效，送货上门的卡车用得更节省。

We, you know, we pull back on our driving, you know, we fly less, you know, we become more efficient in the use of trucks that deliver packages to our door.

其他国家最终也会传导上去，只是需要更长的时间才体现出来。

The rest of the world, there will ultimately be a pass through, but it just takes a much longer period of time for that to occur.

另一个可能的原因，虽然更棘手，是市场竞争不足。

The other thing that might be going on to help explain, and this is a little more problematic, is lack of competition.

各个行业的竞争程度，这些年一直在减弱。

You know, competition in different industries has eroded over time.

越来越多的行业被少数几家公司主导，它们能更大幅度地定价，或者在需求疲软、经营成本下降时仍能长时间维持高价。

Increasing number of industries are dominated by a few companies that can set prices more significantly or are able to hold their pricing for longer in the face of weakening demand or slower costs of doing business.

这种缺乏竞争的情况，多年来一直在加剧，现在更加明显，可能也是导致我们这里通胀率居高不下的原因之一。企业因为竞争压力减小，没有动力降价，所以通胀更难消退。

And so that lack of competition, which has, I think, occurred over the years and become more pronounced now, maybe may be also playing a role in the higher rates of inflation that we're seeing here and the fact that maybe why inflation the reason why inflation might be more sticky here because businesses are under less pressure to cut prices because of the lack of competition or the the less lessening of competition.

美联储新任主席凯文·沃尔什向国会发表了讲话。

Kevin Walsh, new Fed chair, spoke to congress.

他说，CPI的下降并不意味着通胀问题已经解决。

He said the CPI drop does not mean, quote, mission accomplished on inflation.

他表现出的立场比人们预期的要强硬得多。

He seems to be a lot more hawkish than people expected.

你觉得他的这些话意味着什么？

I mean, what do you make of his statements?

你认为这对未来的利率会有什么影响？

What do you think this means for interest rates going forward?

是的。

Yeah.

他这么强硬，确实让我有点意外。

I've been surprised at how, as you say, hawkish he has been.

你想想看，回看FOMC会议，那个政策制定委员会的会议，他好几次提到‘价格稳定’，他让投资者相信他是认真的——如果你看看通胀预期，看看债券投资者对未来通胀的预期，它们已经回落到伊朗战争爆发前的水平了。

You know, going back to the FOMC meeting, the policy making committee meeting, he used the words price stability several times, you know, and he convinced investors that he's serious about that if, like, if you could look at inflation expectations and what bond investors think inflation will be in the future, they came back down, back to where they were prior to the Iran war.

所以投资者相信，他会全力以赴压住通胀。

And so they're convinced that he's going to work hard to keep inflation down.

这可是他的首要任务。

That's his primary focus.

这让我安心不少，因为六个月前我们聊这些的时候，我特别担心美联储的独立性，怕新任主席扛不住总统的压力——毕竟总统一直说想要更低的利率。

And I take a great deal of solace in that because I, you know, six months ago when we were having these conversations, I was much worried about the Fed's independence and that whoever the Fed chair was going to be could buckle under the weight of the pressure from the president who says he wants lower interest rates.

但现在，我对这点没那么担心了。

But I feel less worried about that.

不过还得走着瞧，毕竟事情怎么发展还不知道，还有很多东西要观察。

We'll have to see, you know, obviously there's, we'll have to see how this plays out and there's a lot to be learned.

但目前为止一切顺利，感觉真的很不错。

But so far so good, and I think that feels very good.

这意味着利率有上升的可能。

Now, does mean the potential for higher rates.

我的意思是，市场现在预期，根据最新的通胀数据，可能会在今年内两次各加息0.25个百分点。

I mean, markets are now anticipating, last I looked, might come in today with these better inflation numbers, but last I looked, two rate increases quarter point each time.

所以投资者认为，这种强硬的表态最终会转化为实际的利率上调。

And so the investors are expecting that that hawkish rhetoric will translate into higher interest rates.

而更鹰派的美联储主席带来的一个副作用，就是利率会在高位维持更长时间。

And, you know, one of the side effects of more hawkish Fed chair is you're going have higher rates for longer.

但我认为，归根结底，最关键的是美联储的独立性，自从凯文·莫里斯上任以来，他做的这些事让我对这一点更有信心了。

But I think ultimately, you know, the key thing here is Fed independence, and I feel much better about that in the wake of all the things that Kevin Morris has done since he's been appointed.

你对明年利率走势有什么看法吗？

Do you have a view on the poll for interest rates for the year ahead?

这似乎是投资者最关心的问题。

I mean, this seems to be, like, the biggest question for investors.

利率会上升、下降，还是会保持不变？

Will rates go up or down, or will they stay flat?

从今年年初开始，人们就一直在讨论这个问题。

And people have been debating this since the beginning of the year.

年初的时候，大家都觉得利率会下降。

Everyone seemed to agree they were gonna come down heading into the year.

但现在情况不一样了。

That's changed now.

你对这场争论有什么看法？

Do you have a view on that debate?

是的。

Yeah.

当然了，埃德，我有很多看法。

Of course, Ed, I've got lots of views.

没错。

Yeah.

就连世界杯我都有自己的看法。

Even on the World Cup, I got a view.

那么费城人队呢？

So or will the Phillies

会赢吗？

win Yeah.

我也有个看法。

I got a yeah.

我有自己的观点。

I got a view.

这跟主流看法有点不一样。

It's it's it's a bit out outside of consensus.

我觉得美联储不会加息也不会降息。

I don't think the Fed's gonna raise or or lower rates.

我认为政策会保持不变，因为他们有两个目标。

I think policy will remain on unchanged because I do think, you know, they have two mandates.

一个是保持低而稳定的通胀，这正是我们一直关注的。

One is low and stable inflation, and that's what we've been focused on.

那就会要求加息。

That would call for higher rates.

但另一个目标是充分就业。

But the other mandate is full employment.

在我看来，现在的就业市场偏弱。

And there, the job market, in my humble opinion, is soft.

情况不乐观。

It's weak.

我们根本没创造出什么新岗位。

I mean, we're not creating any jobs.

现在新增的岗位全集中在医疗行业，范围太窄了。

All the jobs we're creating is in the healthcare sector, it's very narrow.

要是丢了工作，你就麻烦了，根本找不到新工作。

If you lose your job, you're in big trouble because you can't get hired back.

招聘的频率非常低。

Hiring rates are very low.

长期失业的人在失业人口中的比例现在正在上升，而且已经很高了。

Share of the unemployed that are unemployed for long periods of time is now rising and very high.

工资增长非常疲软。

Wage growth is very weak.

所以我担心劳动力市场还有很大的闲置空间。

And so I worry that there's slack in the labor market.

你从失业率上看不出来，因为劳动人口正在减少。

You don't see it in the unemployment rate because labor force is collapsing.

很多人正在退出劳动力市场。

People are leaving the labor force.

如果过去一年劳动参与率没有保持不变，失业率其实已经达到5%了，到那时大家对这个问题的看法肯定完全不一样。

And you know, the labor force participation rate had just remained unchanged over the past year, the unemployment rate would be 5%, and we'd all be talking very differently if it was 5%.

所以我觉得就业市场非常疲软，最终这会说服委员会不要加息。

And so I think the job market is very soft, and I think ultimately that will convince the committee not to raise rates.

但就像很多事情一样——比如这场战争会怎么发展——我说这话的时候信心并不足，毕竟这里头不确定性太多了。

But, you know, like many things, like which way is this war gonna go, I say this with low levels of confidence because, you know, obviously there's a lot of uncertainty here.

没错。

Right.

问题跟往常一样，到底哪个更成问题？

It seems like the question is, as usual, which one is more of a problem?

我倾向于认为通胀才是更大的麻烦，因为我个人对伊朗局势的发展非常担忧。

I think I tend to on the side of the inflation problem is more of a problem because I'm personally very worried about what we're seeing in terms of the Iran situation.

不过我明白你的意思，你最近在社交媒体上也提到过。

But I take your point, and you you said this recently in your social media.

你说过，对六月就业报告的评论太过轻描淡写，完全没重视数据有多疲软。

You said that the commentary on the employment report for June was, quote, much too dismissive of how weak the numbers looked.

所以，我们其实和美联储总是面临的处境一样——必须做出选择。

And so I guess we find ourselves in the same position that the Fed always finds itself in, which is you gotta choose.

但话说回来，他们不也是被逼到这个地步的吗？

Well, although we they're pushed into this really bad place, right?

毕竟，政策问题——关税、移民、战争，这些都导致增长放缓、通胀上升。

I mean, because of policy, I mean, because of the tariffs, because of immigration, because of the war, that leads to weaker growth and higher inflation.

这就是滞胀。

That's stagflation.

现在就是个滞胀的环境。

This is a stagflation environment.

美联储在这种情况下该怎么办？

And what do you do with that at the Fed?

你是该优先管通胀，还是该优先管增长？

Do you focus on inflation or do you focus on growth?

这真是个进退两难的处境，他们现在就卡在这儿了。

And it's a very tough spot to be in, and that's the situation that they're in.

我觉得他们只能拖着，说实在拿不定主意该优先处理哪个。

My sense is they punt and they say, I I can't figure out which one to focus on.

所以我暂时不调整利率。

I'm not changing rates.

但我明白你的意思。

But I hear you.

我的意思是，归根结底，真到那一步，也只能这么办。

I mean, you know, at the end of the day, push comes to shove.

他们最终还是得盯住通胀。

They've got to focus on inflation.

我觉得，最终决定因素还是通胀预期。

Now I think the deciding factor ultimately on that will be inflation expectations.

如果通胀预期保持低位，他们或许不用加息，因为通胀自己就会下来。

If inflation expectations stay down, then they may be able to get away without raising rates because inflation should come in.

但如果通胀预期开始上升，比如现在，大家预期美联储会加息，这才压住了预期。

If inflation expectations start to rise, say, you know, right now inflation expectations are based on the expectation the Fed's gonna actually raise rates.

假设他们宣布不加息，结果通胀预期反而往上走，那情况就变了。

Now let's say that they say, okay, they're not raising rates, So inflation expectations start to rise.

所以，他们只能被迫加息。

Therefore, they gotta raise rates.

我的意思是，这道理你应该懂吧。

I mean, you know?

我知道这听起来让人头大，但事情就是这么运作的。

So I know that's mind numbing, but that's the way this this all works.

确实让人晕头转向，不过你说得对。

It does make your head spin, but you're right.

是的。

Yeah.

这就像是镜屋一样。

It's like a hall of mirrors.

对。

Yeah.

好的。

Alright.

马克·赞迪，穆迪分析公司的首席经济学家。

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.

马克，感谢你抽出时间。

Mark, appreciate your time.

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢。

Thank you.

广告之后，华尔街银行又大赚一笔。

After the break, Wall Street banks make a killing again.

想了解更多市场洞察，欢迎订阅我的每周简报《Simply Put》，网址是 simplyput.profgmedia.com。

And for even more markets insights, you can subscribe to my weekly newsletter, Simply Put, at simplyput.profgmedia.com.

这是怎么回事？

What is happening?

我看到的是什么？

What am I seeing?

这不可能是真的。

This is not real.

我心想，这到底是怎么了

I'm like, what

那是什么？

is that?

《无法解释》——一档探讨我们所有未知之谜的节目，即将登陆Netflix。

Unexplainable, the show about everything we don't know, is coming to Netflix.

别开玩笑了。

Come on.

你认真的？

You're not serious.

对吧？

Right?

这可是真的。

It's real.

天哪。

Oh my gosh.

我快崩溃了。

I'm freaking out.

我们还是会深入探讨那些可能主宰你生活的重大问题。

We'll still be getting into all the huge questions that can take over your life.

人类的死亡会不会有好几种不同的方式？

Are there different ways that humans might be dead?

我们是不是生活在一个巨大的黑洞里面？

Do we live inside of an enormous black hole?

我们为什么会哭？

Why do we cry?

要是我吃了它会怎么样？

What if I eat it?

但现在，我们能向你们展示以前根本做不到的各种内容了。

But now we're gonna be able to show you all sorts of things we never could before.

你真的别无选择，只能任由你的想象力自由驰骋。

You really have no choice but to just let your mind go wild.

《Unexplainable》每周一在Netflix上线新的视频剧集，音频剧集也依旧每周一和周三更新。

Unexplainable is gonna have new video episodes every Monday on Netflix with new audio episodes still dropping every Monday and Wednesday.

《Unexplainable》是Vox出品的播客，现已登陆Netflix。

Unexplainable, a podcast from Vox, now on Netflix.

你还记得Snapchat吗？

Remember Snapchat?

那个以发送秒删照片和视频闻名的App？

The app best known for being the place to send disappearing photos and videos to your friends?

最近Snapchat又上了新闻，但这次跟秒删照片没关系。

Well, Snapchat was back in the news recently, but this time it was not about disappearing photos and videos.

这次是因为一副戴在脸上的智能眼镜。

It was about smart glasses that you put and keep on your face.

Snapchat推出了一款黑色粗框眼镜，想挤进这个市场。

Snapchat was trying to get in on the game with a pair of black, horn rimmed looking spectacles.

就像《飞屋环游记》里那位老爷爷戴的那种，但厚度是三倍，标价2195美元。

Think the pair that the old man in Up wears, but like three times thicker, and with a price tag of $2,195.

Snap公司CEO埃文·斯皮格尔戴这副眼镜的照片在网上疯传，但全是负面评价。

Photos of Snap CEO Evan Spiegel wearing his specs, that's what they're called by the way, specs, were all over the Internet and not in a good way.

人们都在笑。

People were laughing.

笑声一路传到了股市，Snap的股价因此大跌。

And they laughed all the way over to the stock market where Snap took a hit.

但正如你在福克斯的《今日解析》中将听到的，Snap在智能眼镜上玩的是长期策略，其他科技巨头也一样。

But as you're gonna hear on Today Explained from Fox, Snap's playing the long game with smart glasses and the rest of Big Tech is too.

智能眼镜已经正式登场了，所以我们在这期节目里也要认真聊聊它们，顺便担心一下我们的隐私问题。

Smart glasses are officially here, so we're gonna officially talk about them on the show and worry about our privacy.

这一切都始于《Call Me Maybe》。

It all started with Call Me Maybe.

十多年前，我们创办了《Switched On Pop》，就是想更仔细地听歌，揭开那些最浮夸的流行歌曲背后的创作秘密。

Over ten years ago, we created Switched On Pop to listen closer, uncovering the song craft behind even the glossiest of pop hits.

从那以后，我们已经推出了将近五百期节目。

Since then, we've released almost 500 episodes.

我们定义了现代音乐的声景，采访了数百位音乐人和业内人士，包括《Call Me Maybe》的原唱卡莉·蕾·杰普森本人。

We've defined the sounds of our modern soundtrack and interviewed hundreds of musicians and music insiders, including the singer of Call Me Maybe herself, Carly Rae Jepsen.

我是音乐学家内特·斯隆。

I'm musicologist Nate Sloan.

我是词曲作者查理·哈丁。

And I'm songwriter Charlie Harding.

7月14日，《Switched On Pop》将开启新篇章。

And on July 14, Switched on Pop is embarking on a new chapter.

我们将走出录音棚，走上镜头前，在Netflix上直播我们的播客。

We're stepping out from behind our microphones and in front of the camera to stream our podcast on Netflix.

当然，你依然可以

Now, you'll still be able

在任何听播客的地方收听节目，但现在你还能每周看到我们剖析当下的音乐，深入挖掘那些细微的音乐细节，和你喜爱的音乐人一起探讨，当然，也少不了那些不怎么好笑的爸爸式冷笑话。

to listen to the show anywhere you get podcasts, but now you'll be able to watch us each week breaking down the sounds of the moment, digging into musical minutiae with your favorite artists, and offering questionable dad jokes as always.

我们首播的Netflix系列将分为四集，主题是歌曲的艺术，邀请了亚伦·德斯纳、奥德丽·霍巴特、特雷弗·霍恩、赛普雷斯山和泰勒·帕克斯等音乐人、制作人和词曲作者参与。

We're kicking off our Netflix debut with a four part series on the art of the song with help from artists, producers, and songwriters like Aaron Dessner, Audrey Hobart, Trevor Horn, Cypress Hill, and Taylor Parks.

从7月14日起，每周二，《Switched On Pop》将在Netflix和所有播客平台同步上线。

Stream Switched On Pop on Netflix and anywhere you get podcasts every Tuesday starting on July 14.

我们回到《Prof G 市场》。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

美国五大银行刚刚公布了财报，全都传递了同一个信息。

Five of America's biggest banks just reported earnings, and they all delivered the same message.

华尔街正在火热升温。

Wall Street is booming.

摩根大通在营收和利润上双双超出预期，首席执行官杰米·戴蒙宣布，所有主要业务都创造了历史最高收入。

JPMorgan beat on the top and bottom lines with CEO Jamie Dimon announcing record revenues across every major business.

高盛录得了历史上最强劲的季度之一，利润同比飙升近80%；美国银行、富国银行和花旗银行也都超过了市场预期。

Goldman Sachs posted one of its strongest quarters in history with profits up nearly 80% year over year, And Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup all topped expectations as well.

推动这些业绩的，是交易活动的复苏，尤其是太空探索技术公司（SpaceX）有史以来最大规模的IPO，为银行带来了五亿美元的手续费收入。

Driving those results was a revival in deal making, including 500,000,000 in fees from the largest IPO of all time, SpaceX.

但投资者对各家银行的反应并不一致。

But investors didn't reward the banks equally.

消息一出，高盛股价飙升了近9%。

Goldman popped nearly 9% on the news.

摩根大通和美国银行股价都上涨了约2%，而富国银行和花旗集团则分别下跌了25%。

JPMorgan and Bank of America both rose about 2%, while Wells Fargo and Citigroup fell 25% respectively.

接下来，我们邀请到汇丰银行美国金融研究主管索尔·马丁内斯，来聊聊华尔街这一季的亮眼表现对市场和经济意味着什么。

So here to tell us what Wall Street's blowout quarter means for the markets and for the economy, we are speaking with Saul Martinez, head of US Financials Research at HSBC.

索尔，感谢你做客《Prof G Markets》。

Saul, thanks for joining us on Prof G Markets.

根据杰米·戴蒙的说法，各家银行的业绩全面爆表，几乎达到了摩根大通乃至整个行业所能达到的最好状态。

Blowout earnings across the board, according to Jamie Dimon, it's, quote, getting close to as good as it gets for JPMorgan and for basically everyone.

为什么现在对银行来说是这么好的时机？

Why is it such a good time to be a bank right now?

眼下，经济环境几乎完美：经济韧性十足，实际利率居高不下，这对银行的净息差非常有利。

Right now, you you have, you know, almost a perfect storm of good a good economic backdrop, a resilient economy, high real rates, which is positive for the net interest margins of banks.

同时，并购交易活动重新活跃，资产价格也在攀升。

And you're seeing a resurgence of deal making activity, asset prices are going higher.

所以，从传统银行业务来看，无论是贷款增长、净利息收入，还是净息差，全都得到了有力支撑。

So you have a backdrop that is supportive of a wide, wide range of is everything from traditional banking, which is benefiting from good loan growth, good net interest income growth, good net interest margins.

但这一季最突出的，我觉得是资本市场业务，并购交易简直卷土重来。

But what was exceptional, I guess what was most exceptional, I think about the results this quarter were the capital markets businesses, deal making is back in spades.

这季度，你提到的五家投行的投行业务收入同比增幅在30%到55%之间，尤其是IPO活动，过去一直低迷，现在明显反弹了。

So this quarter investment banking fees for the five companies you highlighted grew anywhere from 30 to 55% year on year, and it's across product IPO activity, which is, you know, has been historically low has rebounded.

同时，并购交易也十分活跃。

At the same time, and A activity has been strong.

债券发行量也达到了历史高位。

Debt issuance is historically elevated.

更让人意外的，其实是交易业务这边的表现。

And then on top of that, what may have surprised more than that is on the trading side.

银行作为中介，为机构投资者提供交易和融资服务，这些业务也在全面爆发，尤其是股票交易，相关银行的收入同比飙升了45%到90%。

So banks intermediate trades, they finance institutional investors, and that those businesses are also booming, especially equities, which was up for those banks anywhere from 45 to 90% year on year.

这样一来，传统银行业务和资本市场业务齐头并进，背后反映的是良好的经济环境——利率处于历史高位，同时并购交易异常活跃。

And then, so it's almost a perfect storm where traditional banking capital markets businesses are doing well, and it's reflective of a good economic backdrop with high rates or higher rates than we've had in the past and a lot of deal making activity going on.

所以，咱们来捋一捋这些利好因素：贷款增长、股票交易表现惊人，听起来客户和投资者的交易活跃度，有些情况下几乎是过去的两倍以上。

So just to go through some of these things that are going right, you've got the loan growth, you've got these the phenomenal equities trading, which, I mean, it basically sounds like clients, investors are trading stocks more than double than they were in some cases or sorry.

接近去年同期的两倍。

Close to double, what they were trading from a year ago.

这势头很猛，我猜很大程度上是因为市场波动加剧，而波动通常会推高交易量。

So that's booming, and I assume a lot of that is the volatility that's happening in the markets that often increases trading.

并购交易、项目融资，当然还有IPO，其中最重要的是SpaceX，这五家银行都参与了承销。

M and A, the deal making, and then, of course, the IPOs, the most significant of which was SpaceX, which all five of these banks were underwriters of.

我想问的是，SpaceX的这次IPO对这些收益有多大的贡献？

My question, how important was that SpaceX IPO to these earnings?

未来那些IPO，比如OpenAI和Anthropic，会对收益产生多大影响？它们的重要性会更低吗？

And how important will these future IPOs, namely OpenAI and Anthropic, be to these earnings as well, or are they less important?

我的意思是，如果单独看这些项目，相对于总收入来说，数额其实并不算大。

Well, I mean, you look at them in isolation, it's not they're not huge numbers relative to the total revenue numbers.

我们虽然不清楚每家银行具体收了多少费用，但这些确实推动了股权资本市场业务，不过占整体收入的比例还是很小。

So even even you know, we don't know the exact, fees collected by each individual bank, but it helps the equity capital markets business, but that's a pretty small proportion of the overall revenue stream.

不过别误会，整体来看IPO活动确实回暖了，这也带动了投资银行业务的整体收入。

Now, don't get me wrong, you've seen IPO activity more broadly, you know, rebound, and that is helping investment banking fees generally.

而且未来还会有更多大型IPO可能落地，这可能会在今年晚些时候到明年初带来额外的推动力。

And you do have additional IPOs, large IPOs that could be coming, which provide an additional tailwind possibly later this year and into early next year.

所以确实有帮助。

So it's helpful.

但这并不是最主要的收入来源。

It's not the biggest driver.

不过，这些交易也会带来一些连锁效应。

That said, there are, you know, are other there's a sort of a multiplier effect also from some of these transactions.

比如SpaceX这样的公司造就了很多亿万富翁，这就为你的财富管理业务创造了机会。

You, you know, you meant a lot of billionaires, for example, with something like SpaceX, and that provides opportunities for your wealth management business.

围绕这些公司也会出现交易机会。

There are trading opportunities around that.

SpaceX上市后还会引发指数成分调整，迫使投资者重新配置投资组合。

There's going to be index rebalances around in, you know, SpaceX, which forces investors to reposition their portfolio.

你们的做市业务也因此会更加活跃。

Your market making activity increases.

单看这些交易的IPO费用和投行业务费用，可能只看到了一部分情况。

Looking at the IPO fees and the investment banking fees in isolation on these deals probably tells you only part of the story.

很多这类交易——不管是IPO还是并购——都会产生连锁效应，带来类似的现象，让你的多个资本市场业务都受益。

There's sort of a multiplier effect on a lot of these transactions, whether they're IPOs or, you know, M and A transactions as well, where you have a lot of that same phenomenon going on, where they're, where it helps you in multiple of your capital markets businesses.

现在，这种连锁效应正明显地显现出来。

So you're you're you're seeing that multiplier effect really take hold right now.

这么说可能有点粗浅，但资本市场上一有动静，对银行来说通常是好事。

Might be a crude way to put it, but when stuff happens in the capital markets, that's a good thing for banks.

大卫·所罗门提到的一个关键点是AI基础设施的建设，这给公司带来了巨大机遇。

One of the things that is happening that David Solomon pointed out was the AI infrastructure build out, which has been a boon for the company.

他特别指出，目前正有大量数据中心在建设和融资中。

He pointed out all of these data centers that are being built and financed.

这挺有意思的，因为你能理解为什么英伟达会成为AI建设的最大赢家。

And that's kind of interesting because, you know, you could understand why, you know, NVIDIA would be a winner of the AI build out.

但你可能不会第一时间想到华尔街。

You wouldn't immediately think of Wall Street.

他们为什么能从这次建设中获益？

Why have they benefited from this build out?

这个答案和之前说的差不多。

It's a sort of a similar answer to the prior answer.

这其实是一种乘数效应，对吧？

There's sort of a multiplier dynamic, right?

我们谈AI的时候，最直接的影响是在融资层面。

We think about AI, there's sort of the first order, or first order of magnitude is on the financing side.

银行贷款增加了，债务发行也多了，债务资本市场活动更活跃了。

So you have banks lending more, you have more debt issuance, you have more debt capital markets issuance.

这带来了明显的经济乘数效应。

You have sort of an economic multiplier effect.

受益的不只是AI基础设施公司，还有能源公司和其他相关企业。

It's not just the AI infrastructure companies, it's also the energy companies and other firms that benefit from that.

既有融资，也有贷款，还有债务发行，银行可以放贷，再把这些产品推荐给财富管理的客户。

And there's, you know, financing, there's lending, there's, you know, there's a debt issuance, there are opportunities to lend and then distribute them to some of those products for your wealth management clients.