为何科技巨头不敌平淡股票

故事。

story.

下一个故事是什么，埃德？

What's the next story, Ed?

我们的听众就像说，好吧。

It's like our listeners like, alright.

够了。

Enough already.

我们明白了。

We get it.

我们明白了。

We get it.

埃德喜欢Salesforce。

Ed loves Salesforce.

我们明白了。

We get it.

他们想发财。

They wanna get rich.

我们就要在这里发财了。

We're we're gonna get rich here.

就是这样。

There you go.

广告后马上回来。

We'll be right back after the break.

如果你到目前为止喜欢这个节目，分享给朋友吧，如果你还没关注，请务必关注我们。

And if you're enjoying the show so far, send it to a friend, and please follow us if you haven't already.

本节目由VCX赞助，VCX是私营科技公司的公开股票代码。

Support for the show comes from VCX, the public ticker for private tech.

几代以来，美国公司凭借其创新精神和决心推动了世界前进。

For generations, American companies have moved the world forward to their ingenuity and determination.

几代以来，普通美国人通过或许是人类最伟大的发明之一——美国股市，得以参与这一进程。

And for generations, everyday Americans could be part of that journey through perhaps the greatest innovation of all, The US stock market.

无论你是底特律的工厂工人，还是奥马哈的农民，都无关紧要。

It didn't matter whether you were a factory worker in Detroit or a farmer in Omaha.

任何人都可以拥有这些伟大的美国公司的股份。

Anyone could own a piece of the great American companies.

但如今这种情况已经改变了。

But now that's changed.

如今，我们最具创新性的公司选择保持私有，而不是上市。

Today, our most innovative companies are staying private rather than going public.

结果是，普通美国人被排除在投资之外，越来越落后，而少数人却独享所有收益，直到现在。

The result is that everyday Americans are excluded from investing and getting left further behind while a select few reap all the benefits until now.

推出VCX，私有科技的公开股票代码。

Introducing VCX, a public ticker for private tech.

VCX由Fundrise提供，让每个人都有机会投资于下一代创新，包括该公司引领的人工智能革命、太空探索、国防科技等。

VCX by Fundrise gives everyone the opportunity to invest in the next generation of innovation, including the company's leading AI revolution, space exploration, defense tech, and more.

访问getvcx.com了解更多信息。

Visit getvcx.com for more info.

这就是 getvcx.com。

That's getvcx.com.

投资前请仔细考虑投资材料，包括投资目标、风险、费用和开支。

Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risk charges, and expenses.

更多相关信息可在 getvcx.com 上找到该基金的招募说明书。

This and other information can be found in the fund's prospectus at getvcx.com.

这是一则付费赞助内容。

This is a paid sponsorship.

本节目由 Public 支持，Public 是为认真对待投资的人打造的投资平台。

Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously on Public.

您可以构建包含股票、债券、期权以及现在新增的生成式资产的投资组合，这些资产能让您借助人工智能将任何想法转化为可投资的指数。

You can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, and options, and now generated assets, which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI.

一切从您的提示开始，例如高自由现金流的可再生能源公司，或年收入增长率超过 20% 的半导体供应商。

It all starts with your prompt from renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% a year over year.

您可以直接输入任何提示，让人工智能为您工作。

You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work.

它会筛选成千上万只股票，构建一个独一无二的指数，并允许你将其与标普500指数进行回测，然后只需点击几下即可投资。

It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index, and lets you back test it against the S and P 500, then you can invest in a few clicks.

生成资产就像具有无限可能性的ETF，完全可定制，基于你的观点，而不是他人的观点。

Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's.

前往 public.com/probg，在转移你的投资组合时可获得无上限的1%奖励。

Go to public.com/probg and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio.

这是 public.com/probg。

That's public.com/probg.

由Public Investing赞助，经纪服务由Open to the Public Investing Inc提供，系FINRA和SIPC会员；投资顾问服务由Public Advisors LLC提供，系美国证券交易委员会注册投资顾问。

Paid for by Public Investing, broker services by Open to the Public Investing Inc, member FINRA and SIPC advisory services by Public Advisors LLC, SEC registered adviser.

生成资产是一个交互式分析工具的输出结果。

Generated assets is an interactive analysis tool output.

仅用于信息参考，不构成任何投资建议或推荐。

It's for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice.

完整披露信息请参见 public.com/disclosures。

Complete disclosure is available at public.com/disclosures.

本节目由ShipStation赞助。

Support for the show comes from ShipStation.

当您的业务需要同时处理众多分散的应用程序和工具时，快速发货会变得困难得多，这可能会在您试图扩张时拖慢您的步伐。

When your business is juggling a patchwork of disconnected apps and tools, getting orders out the door quickly gets a lot more difficult and that can slow your momentum when you're trying to scale.

ShipStation表示，他们的平台专为帮助您而设计。

ShipStation says they're built to help.

他们的智能平台将订单管理、比价、库存与退货、仓库数据分析等功能整合到一个易于使用的界面中。

Their intelligence driven platform brings order management, rate shopping, inventory and returns, warehouse powerful analytics into one easy to use place.

ShipStation表示，他们的省时自动化功能可以帮助您每周在订单履约上节省多达十五个小时。

ShipStation says their time saving automation can help you win back up to fifteen hours a week on order fulfillment.

该平台会自动选择合适的快递公司，找到最优运费，批量打印运单，甚至向您的客户发送物流跟踪信息。

The platform automatically chooses the right carrier, finds the best rate, prints labels in bulk, and even sends tracking updates to your customers.

他们还表示，ShipStation会对比包括USPS、UPS和FedEx在内的主要全球快递公司的运费。

They also say ShipStation compares rates across major global carriers, including USPS, UPS, and FedEx.

您可以免费试用ShipStation六十天，全程无限制使用所有功能，无需提供信用卡。

You can try ShipStation free for sixty days with full access to all features, no credit card needed.

前往 shipstation.com 并使用代码 markets 享受免费六十天服务。

Go to shipstation.com and use code markets for sixty days for free.

六十天的时间足以让你清楚看到每笔发货节省了多少时间和金钱。

Sixty days gives you plenty of time to see exactly how much time and money you're saving on every shipment.

那就是 shipstation.com，代码 markets。

That's shipstation.com code markets.

shipstation.com，代码 markets。

Shipstation.com code markets.

我们继续回到 Prophecy Markets 的节目。

We're back with Prophecy Markets.

财富税突然重回公众视野，各种提案层出不穷。

Wealth taxes are suddenly back in the spotlight, and the proposals are piling up.

今年九月，一位法国经济学家提议对资产超过一亿欧元的法国居民征收2%的税。

Back in September, a French economist proposed a 2% tax on French residents with over €100,000,000 in assets.

在荷兰，立法者刚刚批准了一项针对股票、债券和加密货币等资产未实现收益征税的计划。

In The Netherlands, lawmakers just approved a plan to tax unrealized gains on assets such as stocks, bonds, and crypto.

而在加利福尼亚州，一项拟议的2026年公投措施将对净资产超过10亿美元的个人征收每年5%的税。

And in California, a proposed 2026 ballot measure would impose a 5% annual tax on individuals worth more than $1,000,000,000.

这一提案尤其引发了大量争议。

That proposal in particular has sparked a lot of debates.

以下是我们在《旧金山标准报》上看到的一些标题：‘亿万富翁税的反弹正远远超出了亿万富翁的范围’。

Here are some of the headlines we are seeing from the San Francisco standard, quote, the billionaire tax backlash is spreading far beyond billionaires.

来自CNBC的报道：加州的罗·康纳因支持财富税而遭到硅谷的抵制。

From CNBC, California's Roe Conner faces Silicon Valley backlash after embracing wealth tax.

来自Politico的报道：亿万富翁税在加州引发了党内战争。

And from Politico billionaire tax sparks intra party war in California.

所有这些反弹都凸显了一个更重大的问题。

All of this backlash underscores the bigger question.

财富税真的合理吗？

Does a wealth tax actually make sense?

斯科特，我们在节目中经常谈论不平等问题，包括收入不平等和财富不平等。

Scott, we talk a lot about inequality on the show, income inequality, and wealth inequality.

这是一个针对该问题的提议解决方案。

This is a proposed solution to the problem.

你对财富税有什么看法？

What do you think of the wealth tax?

首先，我得在这儿做个说明或加个注脚：我不认为前1%的人缴纳了他们应缴的税款，尤其是那些超级富豪。

So first off, let me just put a land acknowledgment or an asterisk on this, and that is I don't think the top 1% are paying their fair share, especially the super owners.

那些属于1%的超高收入者，比如律师合伙人的妻子、职业运动员、年入百万的精英，或者成功的整骨医生夫妻，两人合计收入两百万，

The super earners at the 1% that are, you know, moms, a baller, partner in a law firm, makes a million, million, hot bucks, dads of successful chiropractor makes 400,000, combined income, 2,000,000.

他们因为是当前收入，所以缴纳了巨额税款。

They're paying a ridiculous amount of taxes because it's current income.

而那些靠买卖资产为生的人，虽然拥有大量资产，但只是偶尔出售，缴纳的税率却低得多。

The person who makes their living buying and selling assets has a lot of assets and then occasionally sells them, pays a much lower tax rate.

人们没有意识到的是，他们通过以这些资产作为抵押借款，从而推迟了纳税义务，使得他们的税前资产规模以指数级速度增长，因为他们几乎从不缴税，或者只是推迟纳税。

And what people don't recognize is what they do is they borrow against those assets, thereby deferring the tax liability such that their bigger pretax asset grows exponentially bigger faster because they they kinda never pay taxes on it or they defer the taxes.

因此，我认为我们应该实行替代性最低税。

So I do think we should have alternative minimum tax.

我认为，如果你以资产作抵押借款，就应该对这些资产征税。

I think we should tax assets if you borrow against them.

但总体而言，财富税行不通，因为收入更容易征税。

But a wealth tax in sum does not work because income is easier to tax.

这是从公司A流向个人B的资金流动，政府可以相当容易地拦截这种转移，并计算出他们征收的税率。

It's a flow of money from company a to person b, and, basically, the government can fairly easily intercept that transfer and figure out what percentage they're taking.

而且，估算某人的资金流动也相当容易。

And it's also pretty easy to estimate what someone's flow is.

财富税的问题在于，你会陷入一场巨大的纷争，催生一个庞大的行业来试图确定这些资产的价值。

The problem is with the wealth tax is you get into an enormous war that'll create an a pretty sizable industry trying to figure out the value of these things.

所以，如果你的净资产是100亿美元，因为你拥有公司15%的股份，而公司总估值是670亿美元。

So if your net worth is $10,000,000,000 because you own 15% of a company, we're 67,000,000,000.

事实上，你并没有100亿美元躺在支票账户里，所以你不得不卖出资产。

The reality is you don't have 10,000,000,000 sitting in a checking account, so you would have to sell stuff.

因此，这会催生一些不自然的行为。

So it would create unnatural acts.

此外，你如何评估一个人的艺术品收藏或房产的价值？

In addition, how do you assess someone's art collection, the value of their homes?

这就像是根据Zillow上对房屋的估价来征税，然后要求他们用现金支付。

So it's sort of like you're trying to tax someone's house based on what Zillow says it's worth and then demanding that they pay cash for it.

如果他们手头没有现金怎么办？

And what if they don't have the cash on hand?

他们得卖掉房子吗？

Do they have to sell the house?

但如果每个人都被迫出售房屋或资产来缴纳财富税，资产价值会怎样？

But if everyone's forced to sell their houses or assets to pay wealth taxes, what happens to asset values?

是的。

Yeah.

它们可能会下降。

They probably go down.

我不认为会崩溃，但肯定会下跌。

I wouldn't think they collapse, but they go down.

估值简直是一场噩梦。

And valuation is an absolute nightmare.

你该怎么评估一幅毕加索的作品？

How do you value a Picasso?

它是值三百万还是三千万？

Is it worth 3,000,000 or or 30,000,000?

如果我们考虑征收10%的财富税，该怎么评估呢？

How would we value say they wanted to take say it was a 10% wealth tax.

他们该怎么评估我在Prophet Media的股份价值？

How would they value what my stake in Prophet Media is worth?

然后，我上哪儿去弄这笔钱？

And then where do I come up with that money?

所以我花了三到六个月的时间，与审计师和顾问周旋，试图获得证明Prophet Media估值为两百万而非两千万或一亿的文件。

So I spent three or six months fighting with auditors and consultants and trying to get letters saying that Prophet Media is worth 2,000,000, not 20 or 100.

对吧？

Right?

所以这充满了风险。

So it's it's it's just fraught with risk.

此外，这些政策根本不起作用。

In addition, they don't work.

曾经实施过财富税的16个国家中，除三个外都已废除了该税种。

16 countries that have had wealth taxes, all but three have repealed them.

超级富豪是全球流动性最强的人群。

The uber wealthy are the most mobile people in the world.

此外，从哲学角度看，我认为这种税制侵犯了私有财产权。

Also, just philosophically, I think there's something to the notion that it it violates private property laws.

一旦你完成了现行的税收体系——无论它是公平还是不公平——你拥有的资产、缴税后的现金或房产，就已经是你的了。

And that is once you get through the current tax regime, whatever it is, fair, unfair, and you have that asset, that cash post tax or that house, and you've already paid taxes on it, whatever, and it's gone up in value, bought the house, it's yours.

没有人有权强迫你出售，或拿走你已拥有的部分资产。

And no one has the right to come in and force you to sell it or to take a portion of your a portion of your assets you already have.

所以，首先，我认为这行不通。

So, a, I don't think it works.

亿万富翁会立即聘请最顶尖的税务律师和会计师，声称他们的资产价值只有政府评估的40%。

Billionaires will immediately hire the best tax attorneys and accounts to argue their assets are worth 40% of what the government says it is.

国税局没有足够的资源来应对这种争议。

The IRS does not have the resources to fight this.

要实施财富税，你实际上需要将审计人员和国税局的预算增加十倍。

And you'd need you would literally need 10 times the budget of your auditors and your IRS to administer a wealth tax.

而大部分资金都会花在聘请律师争论你的游艇估值上。

And most of the money would go to paying lawyers to argue about your yacht valuations.

它们根本就行不通。

They're they just don't work.

所以我认为，正如我们之前讨论的AI对消费股产生了阴影效应一样，爱泼斯坦事件现在也正在产生类似的阴影效应。

So I think quite frankly, just as AI in our previous story was having sort of the shadow effect on consumer stocks, I think Epstein is having a shadow effect here.

我认为普通公众对这些超级富豪的特权和所谓的堕落行为已经忍无可忍。

I think that the general public is just so fed up with the entitlement and what is arguably the depravity of the uber wealthy here.

他们就想：好吧。

They're like, okay.

我们真的受够了。

We've just sorta had it.

所以，我能理解这种情绪、社会压力和基本理念。

So, you know, I can understand the sentiment, the social pressure, the basic philosophy.

我们需要提高企业和超级富豪的税率。

We need to increase taxes on corporations and the uber wealthy.

这并不是

This is

正确的做法。

not how you do it.

我同意你说的部分内容，但也不同意其他部分。

I agree with some of what you said, and I disagree with other parts of what you said.

我先从我不同意的地方说起。

I will start with where I disagree.

你说征税于非流动性资产太复杂了。

I I so I mean, you you talk about how taxing illiquid assets is too complicated.

比如，你怎么评估它？

Like, how do you value it?

如果它不是当前收入，那你怎么处理？

If it's not current income, like, what do you do about that?

我的回应是，这正是财产税的做法。

I mean, my response to that is like that that's exactly what property taxes are.

比如财产税，你有一套房子，我们会给出一个估值，进行评估，然后你根据房子的价值按一定比例缴纳现金税款。

Like property a property tax is you have a home, we're gonna we're gonna come up with a valuation, we're gonna figure out an appraisal, and then you're gonna pay a certain amount of cash as a percentage of the value of that home.

所以我不明白为什么同样的方法不适用于所有资产。

So I don't see any reason why the exact same thing shouldn't apply to everything.

我们的确通过财产税对不动产等非流动资产征税。

I mean, we we we do tax illiquid assets, specifically real estate through the form of property taxes.

那么，你怎么评估房地产或其他资产呢？

So, you know, like, how do you value property media?

你会请审计师来查看现金流报表，确定估值，然后根据这个估值来设定税率，就像我们对房屋所做的那样。

You have an auditor come in and look at the cash flow statement and figure out a valuation and then determine a tax rate based on that valuation in the same way that we do that with houses.

所以我认为，我同意这确实工作量很大，而且比仅仅对当前收入征税要复杂得多。

So I think that I mean, I agree it it's a lot of work, and it is, like, more complicated than just tax and current income.

但我认为这并不疯狂，也不是不可行的。

But I don't think it's crazy, and I don't think it's out of the question.

而且我认为，正如你所说，针对 Epstein 级别和亿万富翁阶层的抵制，虽然我同意你的观点，我觉得 'Epstein 级别' 这个说法更好。

And I think given, as you say, the pushback against the Epstein class and the billionaire class, though I to your point, I like Epstein class.

我觉得这个说法更合适。

I think that's better.

反对它的理由，我认为必须比 '太难了' 更有力，因为现在人们已经说：去你的吧。

An argument against it, I think, needs to be stronger than it's too difficult because, you know, the I think the people at this point say, screw you.

我们总能想出办法。

We could figure something out.

我们会找到征税的方式。

We'll figure out a way to tax it.

而且我认为这实际上并没有那么难。

And I don't think it actually is too difficult.

所以这是其中一部分。

So that that's one piece of it.

另一方面，我认为确实有一个合理的观点，那就是它并不真正有效。

On the other side, I do think there is a valid point that it doesn't really work.

你提到那些尝试过但后来废除的国家，因为它们发现这行不通。

And that is you bring up all of those countries that have tried it and then repealed it because it didn't work.

而这些废除案例的共同点是，人们往往会离开。

And it seems like the common thread among those repeals is that actually people tend to leave.

至少亿万富翁会离开。

Billionaires tend to leave at least.

我不喜欢这个说法。

And I don't like that answer.

我的意思是，我不喜欢这样的想法：因为我们太需要这些人的钱，就得迎合这个极小的群体，修改所有法律只为留住他们。

Like, I I I mean, I don't like the idea that we're having to cater to this very small subset of people because they're so wealthy and we need their money so badly that we've gotta tailor all of our laws just to have them stay.

在我看来，这既荒谬又令人反感。

To me, I find that ridiculous and annoying.

但公平地说，并不是所有亿万富翁都会离开。

And to be fair, it isn't always the case that bit billionaires leave.

我的意思是，我们看到了马曼尼当选后发生的事。

I mean, we saw what happened after Mamdani was elected.

每个人都说，我要走了。

Everyone said, I'm gonna leave.

这事肯定会发生。

It's gonna happen.

结果奢侈品市场和房地产市场开始飙升，库存下降，因为需求太大了。

And then the luxury market housing market started to rip and inventory went down because there was so much demand.

他们其实是在装样子。

Like, they they were kind of faking it.

但确实存在这种情况真的发生的时候。

But there are cases where actually that does happen.

挪威就发生过。

It happened in Norway.

看起来加利福尼亚州似乎也开始出现这种情况。

It appears to be beginning to happen in California.

马克·扎克伯格刚刚在迈阿密买了一栋房子。

Mark Zuckerberg just bought a house in Miami.

他 reportedly 计划在四月搬去迈阿密。

He apparently is gonna move to Miami in April.

所以我认为这确实是一个合理的理由，说明这件事可能不会成功。

So I think that that is a legitimate reason why it actually might not work.

另一个我会补充的原因是，这些亿万富翁根本不会允许这种情况发生。

And then another reason that I would add on to why it probably won't work is that, I mean, these billionaires are just not gonna let it happen.

即使加利福尼亚州通过了这项政策，我猜还是会有一些人离开加州。

Like, even if it goes through in California, I guess there'll be some movement out of California.

但除此之外，他们还会投入数亿美元资助诉讼，以阻止这件事发生。

But in addition, it will be hundreds of millions of dollars funding lawsuits to make this not happen.

如果我们回顾过去几年公民联合案之后的情况，就会发现富人确实掌控着政治。

And if there's anything we've seen over the past few years after Citizens United, it's that rich people kind of control politics.

所以，如果你提出一个让那些极其富有的人非常、非常、非常讨厌的计划，而他们确实讨厌这个。

So if you come up with a plan that rich people that very, very rich people really, really, really hate, and they hate this.

我的看法是，他们就是不会让这件事发生。

My view is they're just not gonna let it happen.

这完全是民粹主义的胡说八道，完美诠释了‘正确’和‘有效’之间的区别。

So, this is total populist bullshit that defines the term, the difference between being right and being effective.

超级富豪们并没有支付他们应缴的份额。

The super rich are not paying their fair share.

他们获得了前所未有的财富，却没支付应缴的份额，我们必须解决我们的赤字问题。

They've registered unparalleled prosperity and haven't paid their fair share, and we need to do something about our deficit.

而且，考虑到基尼系数已经达到了法国大革命时期的水平，为了联邦的整体利益，我们不得不采取行动。

And just for the good of the Commonwealth when the Gini coefficient is where it was during the French Revolution.

好吧。

Alright.

我们得做点什么。

We've gotta do something.

完全正确。

100% right.

然后让我们进入节目的下一部分，专注于实际效果，而不是搞一个非居民税收政策，结果在英国收的钱比以前还少，还以为自己在针对亿万富翁。

And then let's go to the part of the program where we try to be effective and not do a non dom tax where we're gonna collect less money in The UK than we did before the non dom thinking we were going after billionaires.

对吧？

Right?

所以，如果我们最终的目标是帮助缓解收入不平等、筹集资金，我们需要建立社会安全网和强大的军事力量。

So how do we actually if if the net net is to help address income inequality, raise the funds, we need to have a social safety net in a military.

这才是目标。

That's the goal.

目标是筹集更多钱，而不是更少，然后让自己感觉良好。

The goal is to get more money, not less, and then feel good about ourselves.

你提到了房产税本质上是一种财富税。

So you brought up the notion of basically property taxes are kind of a wealth tax.

我认为，从理论上讲，我理解。

I think, theoretically, I understand.

我拥有我所在大楼14个单元中的一个。

I own one of 14 units in my building.

每年都有交易发生，他们可以说：好吧。

There are transactions every year, and they can say, alright.

你的单元价值大约为x。

Your unit is worth approximately x.

埃德，Prof G Media的价值是多少？

Ed, what is the value of Prof G Media?

这是个严肃的问题。

Serious question.

价值是多少？

What's the value?

在Nobearer，它的价值是多少？

What's the value at Nobearer?

它的价值区间是多少？

What's the value range?

我该认真回答吗？

I'll I'll shall I answer it seriously?

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

你认为Prof G Media的价值范围是多少？

What's what do you think the range of value is for Prof G Media?

我认为，人们喜欢这个节目的原因之一是我们提供了幕后内容。

You I would argue one of the reasons people like this show is we give them behind the music.

我们试图比任何该死的节目都更透明。

We try to be more transparent than any fucking show.

乔·基尔南不会告诉你他有多高薪。

Joe Kiernan isn't gonna tell you how overpaid he is.

你拥有Prophet G Media的大量股权，因为你相信它未来会值钱，而拥有公司股权正是你积累财富的方式。

You own a large equity stake in Prophet G Media because you believe it's going to be worth something, and owning equity in a company is how you build wealth.

它会递延纳税。

It grows tax deferred.

我之所以给你Prophet G Media的股权，是因为我希望你像所有者一样行事，而不希望你成为乔·基尔南的继任者。

It and I the reason I give you ownership in Prophet G Media is I want you acting like an owner, and I don't want you to go be Joe Kiernan's successor.

那你认为Profg能给我一个估值范围吗？

So what do you think profg give me a range.

Profg是什么意思？

What does profg mean?

我可以很有把握地告诉你，我的公寓估值在5%到8%的浮动范围内，那你认为Prophet G Media的估值范围是多少？

I can give you within five to 8% certain with five to 8% variance what I think my condo is worth, what do you think the range of value is for Prop two Media?

我估计在七千五百万到一亿美元之间。

I'm gonna go with 75 to a $100,000,000.

但如果大卫·埃里森是买家，我会把这数字翻倍。

But if David Ellison were the buyer, I'd I'd double it.

好的。

Okay.

这个范围是零。

The range is zero.

最低范围是零。

The bottom range is zero.

如果我明天出现在爱泼斯坦文件里并被逮捕，这家公司值多少钱？

What is this company worth if I show up in the Epstein files tomorrow and I'm arrested?

我是认真的。

Serious question.

这家公司值多少钱？

What's this company worth?

它的价值会达到500万美元。

It's worth will go $5,000,000.

你认为如果没有我，会有人愿意花500万美元买下这家公司吗？

Do you think someone would pay $5,000,000 for this company without me?

我会算出来的。

I'll figure it out.

我会办成的，斯科特。

I'll make it happen, Scott.

好的。

Alright.

那我们就说五百万吧。

So let's say 5,000,000.

我买你的高端业务。

I buy your high end.

如果我们持续增长，你知道的，播客表现不错。

If we continue growing, it's the you know, podcasts are doing well.

我们的EBITDA利润率非常高。

We have crazy EBITDA margins.

我们每年增长20%到30%。

We're going 20 to 30% a year.

我们已经做一些多元化布局，远离了那位愤怒的教授。

We have done some diversification away from the angry professor.

人们都想进入这个领域。

People wanna get into the space.

这很热门。

It's hot.

我明白。

I get it.

我现在认为这家公司的估值范围在0到一亿美元之间。

I believe the range of this company is somewhere between 0 and a 100,000,000 right now.

所以假设他们选中间值，五千万。

So say they pick the midrange, 50,000,000.

对吧？

Right?

假设有人持有这家公司10%的股份。

Let's say someone owns 10% of the company.

明白吗？

Alright?

这意味着他们声称你的资产价值500万美元，因此你有500万美元的负债。

That means they have a $5,000,000 liability that they're saying your assets worth 5,000,000.

他们想要其中的3%。

They want 3% of it.

你现在能拿出

Could you come up with a

现在能拿出15万美元吗？

$150,000 right now?

不行。

No.

但公平地说，他们说的是那些资产超过5000万美元的人，不过我们还是实际看看沃伦参议员的提案吧——顺便说一句，这位参议员作为国会议员，自己的财富却在持续增长，她一边监督着一个税收不断下降的参议院，一边不断抱怨收入不平等。

Now to be fair, they're saying for people who make over 50,000,000, but let's let's walk through practically senator Warren's proposal, who, by the way, keeps getting richer and richer as a congressperson, as a senator who continues to oversee a senate where taxes go down while she constantly complains about income inequality.

那你他妈的就好好干活吧。

Well, do your fucking job.

而且，你知道的，你就像场上的裁判，一边抱怨裁判判罚不公。

And, you know, you're the referee on the field complaining about the officiating.

总之，她的提案是对超过五千万美元的财富征收每年2%的税。

Anyways, her proposal is a 2% annual tax on wealth over 50,000,000.

每年2%。

2% annually.

对超过十亿美元的财富征收3%。

3% on wealth over a billion.

那我们来具体分析一下。

So let's take it through.

她估计这将在十年内筹集三万亿美元。

So she estimates it would raise $3,000,000,000,000 over ten years.

这假设人们不会开始迁往马德里或迪拜，也不会放弃护照前往新加坡——就像Medid的创始人之一那样。

That's assuming people don't start piecing out to Madrid or Dubai or turn in the passports and go to Singapore as one of the founders of Medid.

对吧？

Right?

所以，假设她是对的，每年能收到三千亿美元。

So she's let's say, let's give it to her, 300,000,000,000 a year.

2026年联邦预算为7万亿美元。

The 2026 federal budget is 7,000,000,000,000.

因此，这项在行政上极其复杂、在宪法上存疑的增税措施，仅占预算的4%。

So this radical administratively complex constitutionally questionable tax raise is 4% of the budget.

这还没算上逃税、避税、资本外流、被迫抛售导致的资产价值下跌，以及执法成本。

And that's before accounting for evasion, avoidance, capital flight, depressed asset values from forced selling, the cost of enforcement.

每年的实际收入可能会比预期低30%到50%。

The annual revenue would likely be 30 to 50% low lower.

你实际可能每年比目前支付的国债利息少收入1.5万亿到2.5万亿美元。

You're you're likely getting a 150 to 250,000,000,000 a year less than we currently spend on interest on the debt.

再对比一下。

And compare that.

我不是那种‘别向富人征税’的人，但这里有个建议。

I'm not one of these don't tax the rich, but here's an idea.

取消投资公司的附带权益漏洞，并取消较低的资本利得税率。

Get rid of the carrying interest loophole on investment firms and get rid of the lower capital gains tax.

每个人都缴纳37%，而不是21%。

Everyone pays 37%, not 21.

顺便说一下，做这两件事。

By the way, do those two things.

你每年提高她声称的这种高度投机、危险、奇怪的财富税的金额。

You raise the amount every year that she claims this highly speculative, dangerous, weird wealth tax would.

我卖股票时缴21%，而你赚钱时缴37%，这毫无道理。

There's no reason I should be paying 21% when I sell my stocks, and you're paying 37% when you make money.

私募亿万富翁对其附带权益适用长期资本利得税率，而这种权益本质上就是佣金，这毫无道理。

There's no reason that the private equity billionaires should be paying long term capital gains on their carried interest, which is essentially a commission.

但如果你作为一名销售员出售复印机，你得按当期收入缴税。

Whereas if you sell a copier as a salesperson, you pay current income.

但当我通过买卖资产获得佣金时，即使我没有承担任何资本风险，却仍按长期资本利得税率缴税。

But when I get a commission on buying and selling assets, I pay long term capital gains even though I haven't put any capital risk.

有更多务实、可执行且可接受的方式来对富人征税。

There are much more pragmatic, enforceable, acceptable means of raising taxes on wealthy people.

我完全同意这一点。

Totally agree with that.

我认为最好的税收解决方案是借贷税。

I I think the thing that I the tax solution I think is best is the borrowing tax.

正如你所指出的，为什么亿万富翁不缴税呢？

As you pointed out, like, why don't billionaires pay taxes?

因为他们从不出售自己的资产。

It's because they just never sell their assets.

那么问题是，他们怎么筹到钱呢？

And then it's like, well, how do they come up with the money?

因为他们以资产为抵押进行借贷。

It's because they borrow against their assets.

如果你这样做

And if you do that

就会触发应税事件。

Triggers a taxable event.

没错。

Exactly.

所以，如果你将这一点设为应税事件，那么问题就直接解决了。

So that if you were to make that a taxable event, then you're solving the problem right there.

但我想从反方角度来讨论一下财富税，我觉得很多人可能认为，你在提出一个替代方案。

But I think just to play devil's advocate on this wealth tax thing, I think the way a lot of people probably see it is, you know, you're presenting an alternative.

你是在说，这个不行，那我们换一个怎么样？

You're like, this doesn't work, but how about we do this?

不。

No.

但亿万富翁们只是觉得，这是个坏主意。

But the billionaires are just like, this is a bad idea.

这是个坏主意。

This is a bad idea.

这行不通。

It doesn't work.

这太复杂了。

It's too complicated.

你该怎么去计算呢？

How are you even gonna figure it out?

我拥有这家公司。

I own this company.

比如，当我这样做的次数越来越多时，到了某个点，听起来就像是，好吧。

Like, I and when they do that more and more times, at a certain point, it starts to sound like, okay.

你们只是在编造一堆该死的借口，因为你们不想缴税。

You guys are just making up a bunch of fucking excuses because you don't wanna pay taxes.

如果你们这么做，我们都会离开，所以你们不能这么做。

If you do this, we're all gonna leave, so you can't do it.

就像是，好吧。

It's like, okay.

那你们提出另一个解决方案吧，因为这个国家的不平等问题，现在大家都同意已经失控了。

Well, propose another solution because the inequality in this country, everyone agrees at this point, has gotten out of control.

让我给你另一个我觉得更好的征税方式。

Let me give you another one that I think is a better way to taxation.

扎克伯格威胁要离开。

Zuckerberg is threatening to leave.

对吧？

Right?

我觉得他会离开。

I think he will leave.

是的。

Yeah.

他买了那栋房子。

He bought the house.

我不知道。

I don't know.

我觉得他有八千亿到一千二百亿美元。

I think he's got between 80 and 120,000,000,000.

我们姑且称之为他在Meta股票上拥有一千亿美元。

Let's call it a $100,000,000,000 in in Meta stock.

很可能这波上涨已经非常惊人了。

Probably realize it's been amazing run.

价格已经相当高了。

It's pretty high.

也许现在是开始套现的时候了，而他却说他已经受够了。

Maybe it's time to start liquidating, and he's gonna come up with a bull I've had it.

我可不干了。

I'm out of here.

我不喜欢无家可归者营地。

I don't like the homeless encampments.

我受不了他总会找一堆荒唐的借口，只为能少交点税。

I can't stand he'll come up with a bunch of Keithra boy bullshit reasons for why he just wants to pay lower taxes.

说到底就是这么回事。

Here's the bottom line.

马克·扎克伯格从加州大学、优秀的加州州立大学系统、我们的高速公路，以及我们在社会项目上的巨额投资中获得了巨大收益，这些使加州成为一个非常宜居的地方。

Mark Zuckerberg has enormously benefited from the University of California, the great Cal State system, our highways, the fact that we have massive investments in social programs that make it a really nice place to live.

尽管有那么多网络喷子，但世界上最富有的人——拉丁语中意为‘拥有最多选择的人’——都选择留在加州。

For all the shitposting, the most the wealthiest people in the world, which is Latin for the people, the most options, all decide to stay in California.

这是因为加州公民为基础设施投入了巨额资金。

And it's because there's enormous investments in the infrastructure paid for by California citizens.

所以，如果马克·扎克伯格在加州积累了1000亿美元的财富，然后搬去佛罗里达，

So if Mark Zuckerberg aggregates a $100,000,000,000 in wealth while in California, he can piece out to Florida.

但当他出售股票时，他仍需就其在加州生活、利用并享受加州基础设施期间所积累的财富缴纳州税。

But when he sells his stock, he is subject to state taxes on the amount of money accreted while he was living in and leveraging and enjoying the California infrastructure.

所以当贝索斯从华盛顿州搬到佛罗里达时——这最让我印象深刻——是为了能花更多时间陪父亲。

So when Bezos moved from Washington state to Florida, and this is my favorite, to spend more time with his father.

真是个好人啊。

What a guy.

真是个好人啊。

What a guy.

当他开始减持股票时，事实上他刚搬走就立刻开始卖股票，我猜是他爸爸劝他这么做的。

When he starts selling down his stock, which he did immediately after getting his I guess his dad talked him into selling his stock.

因为一旦他搬去陪父亲，就马上开始卖股票。

Because the moment he moved to spend more time with his dad, he started selling stock.

好的。

Okay.

当你离开时，他们会说：扎克，这是你的标记。

When you leave, they go, Zuck, here's a mark.

1000亿美元的财富。

A 100,000,000,000 in wealth.

在你为这1000亿美元缴纳14%的税款之前，即使股价下跌，也需相应调整。

Until you have paid 14% on that 100,000,000,000, maybe adjust it if the stock goes down in value.

但如果股价涨到2000亿美元，那就没问题。

But if it goes to 200,000,000,000, fine.

在佛罗里达州，对这1000亿美元缴纳0%的税。

Pay the 0% in Florida on that 100,000,000,000.

但在你出售的这最初的1000亿美元中，你是在加州积累的财富，这得益于加州卓越的文化和基础设施，以及吸引人才汇聚于此的环境——他们可以在马里布的Nobu吃寿司，在海湾里航海，去看洛杉矶公羊队比赛。

But on that first 100,000,000,000 you're selling that you accreted in California as a function of the amazing culture and infrastructure of California, an amazing human capital that is drawn to California such that they can go have eat sushi at Nobu in Malibu and go sailing in the bay and go see, you know, the Rams play.

我正努力列举一些文化例子，来说明加州有多么了不起，比如去希腊剧院，或者住在

I'm trying to come up with cultural references for just how fucking awesome or go to the Greek theater or go to stay at the pool at

比佛利山庄酒店。

the Beverly Hills Hotel.

所有这些加州独有的精彩事物，你都在为在这里积累的财富买单。

All the amazing things that are singular about California, you are paying for what you accrued here.

有很多合乎常理的税收，反对它们是毫无道理的。

There are a lot of common sense taxes that are indefen it's indefensible to argue against them.

毫无道理。

Indefensible.

如果你在加州赚了这么多钱，却想一走了之，不回报加州，不行。

If you made all this fucking money in California and then wanna peace out and not pay back California, no.

不行。

No.

你正在为在加州赚取并积累的财富缴纳加州税款。

You're paying California taxes on the money you made and the wealth you accrued in California.

取消附带利益的漏洞。

Get rid of the carried interest loophole.

取消资本利得的减税政策，你的州税将跟随你积累的资本和财富，而这些资本和财富是在享受该州的特权与投资时获得的。

Do away with the tax the reduced taxes on capital gains, and your state taxes follow you on the capital and wealth you have accreted while enjoying the privilege and investments of that state.

太棒了。

Boom.

把借款也设为应税事件。

And make borrowing a taxable event.

就是这样。

There you go.

这是我们第四个了。

That's our fourth.

没错。

That's right.

真相是一种应税事件。

Truth is a taxable event.

没错。

Exactly.

最后一点，说完我们就继续。

Just the final point, and then we'll move on.

当你看到这种严重的不平等现象——19个家庭掌控了美国全部家庭财富的2%时，真是令人沮丧。

It is just so frustrating when you've got this rampant inequality where 19 households control two percent of all the household wealth in America.

我们都了解这些数据。

We all know the stats.

前1%的人掌控了国家三分之一的财富。

Top 1% commands a third of the nation's wealth.

不平等程度从未如此之高，正在彻底失控。

Never been higher, inequality going out of control.

这些看似关心国家和民族福祉的富人，却无人发声。

None of these rich people who appear to care about or or say that they care about this the state and the health of the nation, no one says a word.

当提出财富税时，他们突然全都情绪激动，纷纷抱怨这毫无道理。

And then the wealth tax is proposed, and suddenly, they're all triggered, and they're all up in arms about how this doesn't make sense.

他们突然间都展现出非凡的分析能力，谈论什么对美国最好、税收制度如何合理等等。

And suddenly, they have this great analytical minds about, you know, what is best for America, what makes sense in terms of the tax code, etcetera, etcetera.

你的动机在这里如此自私，这一点再明显不过了。

And it's like, the is so obvious how self interested you are with your motives here.

我认为他们需要明白的是，这趟列车不会停下。

And I think what they need to get through their heads is that this train isn't stopping.

美国人从未像今天这样如此不受欢迎亿万富翁。

I mean, billionaires have never been as unpopular in America as they are today.

这些统计数据简直令人震惊。

I mean, the statistics are just striking.

十分之七的美国人认为亿万富翁应该被征收更多税款。

Seven in 10 think Americans think billionaires need to be taxed more.

超过一半的人认为亿万富翁正在威胁民主。

More than half think billionaires are threatening democracy.

人们不喜欢亿万富翁。

People do not like billionaires.

你可以说这不合理，或者他们是在嫉妒，等等，但这就是现实，这是不平等变得失控的结果。

And you can say that that's unreasonable or they're being jealous or whatever it is, but that is the reality of the situation, and it's a function of how out of control inequality has gotten.

所以这个说法是没道理的。

So this argument of that doesn't make sense.

我们要走了。

We're gonna leave.

这根本行不通。

It just it doesn't really work.

我觉得你得对加利福尼亚的民众做个调查，他们很可能说：好吧。

Like, I think you'd have to take a poll of the of the people of California who would probably say, okay.

走吧。

Leave.

我们不在乎。

We don't care.

从我们的角度看，你根本就没怎么交税。

From our view, you're not really paying taxes anyway.

我们其实不喜欢你。

We don't really like you.

滚出去。

Get out of here.

我们无所谓。

Fine with us.

也许将来这会是个错误，但目前的现实就是如此。

And, you know, maybe that will be a mistake later down the line, but that's the reality on the ground right now.

这就是现实，而且是个错误。

It is reality, and it is a mistake.

在英国，这种情绪就是人们说：去你的。

That that was the sentiment here in The UK was people are like, fuck you.

滚。

Leave.

他们确实这么做了。

And they did.

现在他们将收取更少的钱。

And now they're gonna collect less money.

也许这会是一个错误。

And maybe it will be a mistake.

而且公平地说，我并不太喜欢这种财富税，与其他税种相比。

And and to be fair, like, I I'm not a huge fan of this wealth tax compared to others.

但我认为，如果亿万富翁们真想认真对待这个问题，就应该提出替代方案。

But I think the billionaires should be, if they wanna take this seriously, propose alternatives.

别只是坐在那里说不行。

Don't just sit there and say, no.

这说不通，然后就一走了之。

It doesn't make sense, and then peace out.

我的意思是，给出一个真正的解决方案。

I mean, give a real solution.

那些亿万富翁自己永远不会这么做。

They will the billionaires themselves will never do that.

亿万富翁永远不会提出这样的方案。

The billionaires will never come up with with that.

我的意思是，我看过一个类似这个播客的右翼版本的片段，里面有几个亿万富翁。

I mean, I I heard I saw a clip of basically what is the right wing version of this podcast, and it has a couple billionaires.

他们说，除非你向中产阶级征税，否则无法获得所需的税收。

And they said, you can't get the taxes we need unless you go after the middle class.

所有的收入都在那里。

That's where all the revenue is.

我当时想，好吧。

I'm like, okay.

让我理清一下。

Let me get this.

你说了这个？

You said that?

你们建议的务实方案是提高中产阶级家庭的税收。

You guys are suggesting the pragmatic solution is to raise taxes on middle class households.

他们会输的。

They're gonna lose.

我的意思是，他们完全脱离现实。

I mean, they're so out of touch.

爱泼斯坦的关联。

The Epstein overlay.

看看这个。

Look at it.

总统，这个世界最富有的人，还有被视为亿万富翁财富与科技典型代表的比尔·盖茨，都在爱泼斯坦文件中出现了数十次，甚至上百次。

The president, the wealthiest man in the world, and the guy who's considered the kind of prototypical icon of billionaire wealth and technology, Bill Gates, they're all in the Epstein files dozens, if not hundreds of times.

这并不利于他们的立场。

That is not helping their case.

让我理清一下。

Let me get this.

收入不平等已经失控，现在我认为，不公平的是，每个我认识的亿万富翁——我觉得现在有一部分相当可观的人口，认为绝大多数亿万富翁都是恋童癖。

Income inequality is out of control, and now I believe unfairly every billionaire I think there are no I think there's a decent size of the population right now, a decent segment of the population right now that feels as if the majority of billionaires are pedophiles.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，哦，那就征税？

I mean, so oh, tax them?

是的。

Yeah.

我同意这个做法。

I'm down with that.

管它是什么呢。

Whatever it is.

我不在乎它有多务实。

I don't care how pragmatic it is.

我不在乎。

I don't care.

就，嗯，狠狠地打击他们。

Just, yeah, hit them hard.

狠狠地打击他们。

Hit them hard.

我们受够这些人了。

We've had it with these guys.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

如需获取更多市场内容，请在 profgmarkets.com/subscribe 订阅我们的通讯。

And for even more markets content, sign up for our newsletter at profgmarkets.com/ subscribe.

本节目由 Upwork 赞助。

Support for the show comes from Upwork.

扩大你的业务不是靠执行某个增长技巧。

Scaling your business isn't about executing some growth hack.

而是要壮大你的团队，学会委派任务，而不是觉得自己必须亲力亲为。

It's about growing your team and knowing how to delegate instead of feeling like you have to do it all yourself.

Upwork 可以帮助你在需要时轻松找到合适的自由职业者，让你专注于自己最擅长的事情。

Upwork can help make it easy to bring in the right freelancer when you need them so you can stay focused on what you do best.

成千上万正在成长的企业已经信赖 Upwork，为从单次项目到持续支持的各种需求招聘灵活且高质量的自由职业人才。

Thousands of growing businesses already trust Upwork to hire flexible, high quality freelance talent for everything from one off projects to ongoing support.

你可以浏览个人资料，查看过往作品，并获得帮助明确岗位需求，从而自信地招聘并快速启动项目。

You can browse profiles, review past work, and get help scoping the role so you can hire with confidence and get started quickly.

Upwork 还通过集中处理合同和付款等事务，减少运营繁琐，让你有更多时间经营业务。

Upwork also cuts down operational hassle by handling things like contracts and payments in one place so you can spend more time running your business.

立即访问 upwork.com 免费发布你的职位需求。

Visit upwork.com right now and post your job for free.

访问 upwork.com，连接那些准备好帮助你业务增长的顶尖人才。

That is upwork.com to connect with top talent ready to help your business grow.

就是 u p w o r k 点 com。

That's u p w o r k dot com.

Upwork.com。

Upwork.com.

本节目由Indeed赞助支持。

Support for the show comes from Indeed.

此刻，正有一位才华横溢的人才，能够帮助你的业务更上一层楼。

Right now, there is a talented person somewhere out there who could help take your business to the next level.

但找到这样的人并不需要费尽周折。

But finding that person doesn't need to be a grind.

只需使用Indeed赞助职位功能。

Just use Indeed Sponsored Jobs.

它能提升你的职位曝光度，触达优质候选人，让你更快找到心仪的人选，效果显著。

It boosts your job posting to reach quality candidates so you can connect with the exact people you want faster, and it makes a big difference.

根据Indeed的数据，直接在Indeed上发布的赞助职位，报告招聘成功的几率比非赞助职位高出90%，因为你能触达更广泛的优质候选人池。

According to Indeed data, sponsored jobs posted directly on Indeed are 90% more likely to report a higher than non sponsored jobs because you reach a bigger pool of quality candidates.

加入已有160万家公司使用Indeed赞助职位的行列，让你有更多时间面试完全符合要求的候选人。

Join the 1,600,000 companies that sponsor their jobs with Indeed so you can spend more time interviewing candidates who check all your boxes.

现在使用Indeed赞助职位，减少压力、节省时间、获得更多成果。

Less stress, less time, and more results now with Indeed sponsored jobs.

本节目的听众将获得75美元的赞助职位优惠券，帮助您的职位在indeed.com/profg获得应得的高级待遇。

And listeners of this show will get a $75 sponsored job credit to help get your job the premium status it deserves at indeed.com/profg.

立即前往indeed.com/professorg，通过说明您是在本播客中了解到Indeed来支持我们的节目，indeed.com/professorg。

Go to indeed.com/professorg right now and support our show by saying you heard about Indeed on this podcast, indeed.com/professorg.

条款和条件适用。

Terms and conditions apply.

招聘，就用Indeed，做对的事。

Hiring, do it the right way with Indeed.

本周《财富与闲聊》节目，我们邀请到扎尔纳·加尔格和她的女儿佐亚，母女二人将围绕金钱、抱负与重塑自我展开对话。

This week on Net Worth and Chill, we're joined by Zarna Garg and her daughter Zoya for a mother daughter conversation about money, ambition, and reinvention.

扎尔纳证明了，无论何时追求梦想都不算晚——从从事法律工作，到创办婚恋业务，再到成为喜剧界最令人期待的声音之一。

Zarna proved it's never too late to chase your dreams from practicing law to building a matchmaking business to becoming one of comedy's most exciting voices.

她非传统的道路让她登上了Hulu的喜剧特辑，与艾米·波勒和蒂娜·菲共同举办满座巡演，并出版了回忆录《这位美国女性》。

Her unconventional path has led her to Hulu comedy specials, sold out tours with Amy Poehler and Tina Fey, and her memoir, This American Woman.

与此同时，佐亚一直在观察、学习，并为自己作为一名年轻专业人士开辟属于自己的道路。

Meanwhile, Zoya has been watching, learning, and carving out her own path as a young professional.

准备好一场关于移民、金钱、大器晚成的成功，以及如何按照自己的方式打造真实而充实生活的精彩而坦诚的对话吧。

Get ready for a hilarious and honest conversation about immigration, money, late blooming success, and what it really means to build a big authentic life on your own terms.

在您收听播客的任何平台收听，或在 youtube.com/yourrichbff 观看。

Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch on youtube.com/yourrichbff.

我们回到 profg 市场。

We're back with profg markets.

人工智能正迅速成为这一十年最具决定性的政治议题。

AI is quickly becoming one of the defining political issues of decade.

曾经被视为具有广泛前景的突破性技术，如今却因能源需求、基础设施压力以及对就业和经济冲击的担忧而受到审视。

What once looked like a breakthrough technology with broad upside is now drawing scrutiny over its real world costs from energy demand and infrastructure strain to concerns about jobs and economic disruption.

这种担忧并非仅来自某一政治派别。

That concern isn't coming from just one side of the aisle.

从罗恩·德桑蒂斯到伯尼·桑德斯，各派政治人物都开始对这一行业的影响发出警告。

Politicians across the spectrum, from Ron DeSantis to Bernie Sanders, have started sounding alarms about the industry's impact.

所以，斯科特，我认为这是未来十年最具决定性的议题。

So, Scott, I think this is the defining issue for the next ten years.

我认为这将决定职业的成败。

I think this will make or break careers.

我认为它已经在摧毁一些职业了。

I think it's already breaking careers.

人工智能的问题，我们想要它吗？

The question of AI, do we want it?

我们打算如何应对它？

How do we wanna handle it?

我们希望如何监管它？

How do we want to regulate it?

它曾经看起来像是一场科技极客的闲聊。

It seemed like it was sort of a technological nerd bro conversation.

它现在正迅速成为主流话题。

It is now very quickly becoming a mainstream conversation.

它正在全美催生出众多草根组织，人们正在抗议数据中心的建设。

It is spurring all of these grassroots organizations across the country, people who are protesting against data center constructions.

这正在华盛顿乃至全美变得越来越重要。

It's becoming a really big deal, in Washington and basically across America.

所以这里有很多话要说。

So a lot to say there.

我想我还是先从你对‘AI如今成了新的政治足球’这一说法的最初反应说起吧。

I guess I'll just start with what are you what are your initial reactions to the notion that AI is now the new political football?

很容易去强调问题或原因，而不是解决方案。

It's easy to, you know, to highlight the problems or the causes and not necessarily the solution.

但在我看来，你面对的只是一群所谓的聪明人。

But the way I see it is all you have is a bunch of, quote, unquote, very smart people.

这里正在发生两件事。

There's two things going on here.

美国公众对AI普遍反感，就像巧克力和花生酱的组合，这种反感源于两个原因。

The chocolate and peanut butter of the just general distaste of AI from the American public is a function of two things.

第一，我真的很厌倦听到这些所谓的AI创始人，他们一兑现了价值数亿的股票，通过二级市场套现，就突然开始对AI表示担忧。

One, I'm really sick of hearing all these, quote, unquote, founders of AI who the moment they vest their 100 or 200 or $300,000,000 in shares and sell them on a secondary market, all of a sudden get very concerned about AI.

你知道吗，老兄，现在说这个没用。

You know, bitch, that's not helpful now.

你写了这段该死的代码。

You built this fucking code.

我做了什么？

What have I done?

当你在积累财富的时候，你什么都没说。

While you were accreting your wealth, you you you didn't say anything.

现在你决定好了，行吧。

And now that you've decided, okay.

我拿到了Anthropic的3%股份。

I got my 3% of anthropic.

这值一百亿美元。

That's worth $10,000,000,000.

我要去写他妈的诗了。

I'm gonna go write fucking poetry.

去你妈的。

Well, fuck you.

他们只谈论巨大的危险。

And all they talk about is the massive peril.

你到底是什么意思？

Well, what do you mean exactly?

然后把这一切都用在你身上。

And use all that to you.

你亲自编写了这个危险。

You you coded this peril.

你有什么办法能把它剥离掉吗，婊子？

Any thoughts on how we uncoat it, bitch?

顺便问一下，你这么担心这个危险，是不是打算把钱退回去，或者承认你制造了如此存在性的威胁？

And by the way, are you so worried about the peril that you're gonna give your money back or realize that you have created such an existential threat?

你根本不配拥有这些期权，还是说你只会夸大其词，吓唬我们，同时在科特迪瓦写诗，身边还带着你那该死的白俄罗斯妓女？

You're not entitled to the options, or are you just gonna catastrophize and scare the shit out of us while you're writing poetry from the Cote D'Izzur with your fucking Belarusian whores?

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

这很有帮助。

That's really helpful.

你真是个好公民。

You're a great citizen.

非常感谢。

Thanks so much.

其次，从实际角度来看，有数百万家庭的电费上涨了67%，原因竟是某座空置的大楼里 supposedly 有电脑和芯片——那个隔壁的数据中心根本不雇佣任何人，却把电网的电力全吸走了。

And then the second thing is on a pragmatic level, you have millions of households who've seen their electricity rates go up 67% because there's some fucking empty building that supposedly has, you know, computers and chips, this data center down the road that's not employing anybody, that's sucking all the energy off the grid.

我看到的只是我的电费，从每月80美元涨到了140美元。

And all I see is my bill, my my electric bill's gone from $80 a month to 140.

所以需要立法，我的意思是，有一项立法其实很简单。

So there needs to be legislate I mean, one legislation is pretty simple.

我们需要对数据中心征收重税。

We need to start taxing the shit out of data centers.

是的。

Yes.

我的意思是，至少应该根据其增加的能源消耗和价格上涨来征税。

I mean, at least to at least tax them to the incremental cost of the incremental energy and incremental price increases.

中产阶级家庭不应该现在就为人工智能公司提供补贴。

Middle class households shouldn't be subsidizing AI companies right now.

但我真的对那种‘我赚到钱了就恐慌’的论调感到厌烦，我不认同这种说法。

So but I am I am really fed up with the post I've made my money catastrophizing, and I don't I don't buy it.

我不明白为什么人工智能不能同样用于防御和进攻性用途。

I don't see any reason why AI can't be used as much for defensive as offensive measures.

也许我在这里忽略了什么。

And maybe I I might be missing it here.

有一些比我聪明得多的人声称这非常危险。

There's people much smarter than me claiming it's really dangerous.