为什么埃隆·马斯克可能会将特斯拉和SpaceX合并

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雅虎财经的AlphaSpace是你期待已久的高级投资平台。

AlphaSpace by Yahoo Finance is the advanced investing platform you've been waiting for.

我的搭档斯科特·加洛韦对这个平台很感兴趣。

My co-host, Scott Galloway, is a fan of the platform.

听听他是怎么说的。

Here is what he had to say.

说实话，我大概用了雅虎财经作为我的金融门户，差不多30年了，一点都不夸张。

So I have been using Yahoo Finance as my portal for finance for, I'm not exaggerating, about 30 years.

我觉得他们做得很好。

I think they do a great job.

你可以通过雅虎财经金卡订阅来体验AlphaSpace，而且现在第一年有五折优惠。

You can explore AlphaSpace with a Yahoo Finance Gold subscription, and right now, your first year is 50% off.

去 yahoofinance.com/profg 看看吧。

Head to yahoofinance.com/profg.

网址是 yahoofinance.com/profg。

That's yahoofinance.com/profg.

比尔，第一年是 239.70 美元，之后每年 479.40 美元。

Bill, that's $239.70 for the first year, then $479.40 thereafter.

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优惠截止到 2026 年 10 月 31 日。

Offer ends October 31st, 2026.

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你的财务规划让你走到了今天。

Your financial plan got you here.

下一阶段需要不同的思考方式。

The next stage calls for different thinking.

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摩根士丹利的原创播客，真实的人与他们的顾问坐下来，共同解决那些太大而无法独自处理的问题，比如分散集中持股、投资私募市场，或评估加密货币风险。

an original podcast from Morgan Stanley, real people sit down with their advisors to work through questions too big to tackle alone, things like diversifying concentrated stock, investing in private markets, or evaluating crypto risk.

听听他们从了解他们目标、家庭和担忧的顾问那里听到的意见。

Listen as they hear from advisors who know their goals, their families, and their worries.

策略很复杂。

The strategies are complex.

情感是真实的。

The emotions are real.

搜索“我该怎么处理我的钱？”

Search for "What Should I Do With My Money?"

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你这个赛季要跑马拉松吗？

Are you running a marathon this season?

那我需要你知道这10个错误，它们会在你到达起跑线之前就打乱你的比赛。

Then I need you to know the 10 mistakes that will disrupt your race before you even reach the starting line.

我是罗宾·阿尔佐恩，两周后我要参加我的第28次马拉松，也是第9次纽约市马拉松。

I'm Robin Arzon, and I am running my 28th marathon and ninth New York City Marathon in two weeks.

在我最新的播客《Project Swagger》里，我把我的错误变成你们的教训。

In the latest episode of my podcast, "Project Swagger," I'm turning my mistakes into your lessons.

现在就可以在任何播客平台观看或收听。

Watch or listen now wherever you get your podcasts.

直接搜索“Project Swagger”就行。

Just search "Project Swagger."

到时候见，终点线见。

See you there and at the finish line.

1.7万订阅者。

17,000 subscribers.

货币市场的疯狂。

Money market's madness.

如果金钱是邪恶的，那那座建筑就是地狱。

If money is evil, then that building is hell.

好戏开场了！

The show goes on!

卖，卖，卖！

Sell, sell, sell!

欢迎收听《Prof G 市场》。

Welcome to Prof G Markets.

我是埃德·埃尔森。

I'm Ed Elson.

今天是10月22日。

It is October 22nd.

我们来看看昨天的市场状况。

Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals.

主要指数上涨，SpaceX的财报带动了科技股的涨势。

The major indices rose with SpaceX's earnings sparking a rally in tech.

SpaceX股价上涨了8%，特斯拉在财报发布前也受到了提振。

SpaceX shares climbed 8%, and Tesla's got a boost too ahead of their earnings report.

我们待会儿就讲这个。

We will get to that in just a moment.

布伦特原油价格回升，逼近每桶110美元。

Brent crude rose back towards $110 per barrel.

十年期美国国债收益率保持稳定。

The yield on 10-year Treasuries was stable.

最后，奈飞在发布财报后股价下跌了5%。

And finally, Netflix shares fell 5% following their earnings.

请看到节目最后，我们会解释原因。

Stick around for the end of the show to find out why.

好的。

Okay.

还有什么其他消息呢？

What else is happening?

特斯拉公布第三季度财报后，股价上涨了大约1%。

Tesla shares rose around 1% after the company reported third-quarter earnings.

总收入与去年同期持平，符合分析师的预期。

Total revenue was flat year over year, which was in line with analyst expectations.

不过，其汽车业务仍然面临困境，收入和交付量都比去年同期有所下降。

However, its automotive business continued to struggle with both revenue and deliveries falling from a year earlier.

一个亮点是正向的自由现金流，这让分析师们感到意外。

One bright spot was its positive free cash flow, which was a surprise to analysts.

但在周二SpaceX的财报之后，埃隆·马斯克确认，特别委员会正在评估特斯拉与SpaceX之间的潜在合并。

But after Tuesday's SpaceX earnings, Elon Musk confirmed that special committees are evaluating a potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX.

所以大多数投资者真正关心的问题其实与财报无关。

So the question on most investors' minds actually has nothing to do with earnings.

大多数投资者都在想，特斯拉是不是要和SpaceX合并？

Most investors are wondering, is Tesla about to merge with SpaceX?

今天我们请来了卡里姆·布斯塔，他是DVX Ventures的联合创始人兼管理合伙人，也曾是特斯拉和Lyft的前副总裁，来和我们一起分析这些财报以及这个潜在的合并问题。

Joining us to break down these earnings and this potential merger question, we are speaking with Karim Bousta, co-founder and managing partner at DVX Ventures and former vice president at both Tesla and Lyft.

卡里姆，很高兴见到你。

Karim, good to see you.

谢谢你加入我们。

Thank you for joining us.

我们先从财报说起吧，这些数字基本上和分析师预期一致。

Let's start with the earnings, which seem to be largely in line with what analysts had expected.

我最关注的是汽车业务、交付量和销量都出现了下滑。

I'm most interested in the fact that the auto business, the deliveries, and the sales are down.

我们早知道会这样，因为之前已经看到了交付数据。

We knew that was going to happen because we'd gotten the deliveries numbers before.

所以我觉得华尔街没什么可意外的。

So I don't think there was any surprise here for Wall Street to react to.

但咱们还是先聊聊对这份财报的整体看法，以及汽车业务的情况。

But let's just start with overall reactions to the earnings and also what's going on with the car business.

特斯拉上周让Roadster飞了起来，这周大家关心的全是数字，以及一个关键问题：目前为公司赚钱的汽车业务，到底能不能支撑得起公司正在追求的那些宏大目标。

Tesla last week made the Roadster fly, and the question this week was all about the numbers, and answering the question whether the car business that is currently paying the bill can actually pay the bills for the big moonshots that the company's working on.

从这季度的数字分析来看，我的答案是部分肯定的，因为你提到的那些负面趋势，其实我们早就知道了。

And from the analysis of the numbers this quarter, I would say the answer is partially yes, because you pointed to negative trends that we've known have been happening for a while.

但这个季度确实有亮点，自由现金流这个关键指标比上个季度改善了。

But there's brightness and light for this quarter specifically in that the free cash flow, which is one of the key metrics that we should look at, has improved compared to last quarter.

他们产生了15亿美元的自由现金流。

They generated 1.5 billion in free cash flow.

汽车业务的毛利率也提升了两个百分点，这得益于执行力和提高利润率的能力。

Gross margins from the auto business have also improved by two points, and that's driven by execution and ability to generate increased margins.

所以这两个数字对特斯拉来说非常重要，因为它们表明，在公司未来要推进的大型项目之外，汽车业务在创收方面能尽到自己的责任，而这些资金在接下来的几个季度里会是必需的。

So these are two very important numbers for Tesla because it shows that out of the big moonshots that the company is going to be working on, the car business can deliver its part in generating some cash that is going to be needed in the coming quarters.

那么，毛利率和现金流改善背后的原因是什么呢？

So what is the answer behind those improved margins and also that improved cash flow?

如果汽车业务在走下坡路，那是什么在向好呢？

If the car business is in decline, what is going right?

我觉得这完全取决于执行力，因为你看数据，交付量并没有大幅增长，但毛利率提高说明他们不是靠打折或类似手段来牺牲利润的。

So I think it's all about execution because if you look at the numbers, so deliveries have not increased dramatically, but the fact that gross margins have improved means that this has been achieved without sacrificing margins with discount and these kind of things.

所以我会把功劳归因于执行层面，以及团队能够专注达成这些数字的能力。

So I would attribute it really on the level of execution and the focus that the team is able to have to deliver these kind of numbers.

现在，我们得从公司需要融资的角度来看这个问题。

Now, we have to put it in perspective in terms of with regards to what the company has to fund.

我们谈的是未来几个季度需要筹集的数百亿美元资本开支。

We're talking Tens of billions of dollars in capital expenditure that are going to be needed to be funded in the coming quarters.

所以这15亿美元的自由现金流虽然不多，但关键的是汽车业务要证明自己能在未来几年的大规模融资中尽到自己的责任。

So this one and a half billion of free cash flow is a small amount, but the important thing for the car business is to show that it can deliver its part in this big funding that needs to happen in the coming years.

当我看到特斯拉的估值，市盈率超过300倍，而整个行业大概在17倍左右。

When I look at the Tesla valuation, trading at more than 300 times earnings, you have the rest of the industry trading at around 17 times earnings.

你也听出来了，我对这只股票持怀疑态度，但当我看到他们在业务下滑的情况下还能小幅提升利润率、改善执行力，我有点搞不懂这到底有什么意义。

And you can hear, I'm skeptical of this stock, but when I see them marginally increasing those margins, improving their execution for a business that is declining, I'm sort of like, I don't see why it matters.

我几乎觉得，你需要去追求一些非常庞大、非常宏伟的东西。

I'm almost like, you need to be pursuing something so gigantic, so enormous.

当我看到Roadster翻跟头、落地然后飞起来的时候，我心想：“哇，这看起来真是酷炫。”

When I see the Roadster flip and land and fly through the air, I'm like, "Wow, that looks visually very cool."

但这真的能让特斯拉达到它需要达到的高度吗？

But is that the thing that's going to get Tesla to where it needs to be?

因为要支撑这么高的估值，这个业务必须得彻底爆发才行。

Because in order to justify this valuation, this business has to absolutely explode.

所以我在想，Robotaxi 的执行进展到底在哪里？

And so I guess I'm thinking about where's the execution on the Robotaxi?

人形机器人是不是在证明——我们有没有看到这些东西真的有市场？

Are the humanoid robots proving-- Are we seeing that there is a real market for these things?

那对于我这种怀疑态度，你怎么回应？

So I guess, what would you respond to that skepticism from me?

对，我觉得你说得完全对。

Yeah, I think you're totally spot on.

所以上周的演示，重点是要证明特斯拉依然能做到那些非凡的事情。

So the demo of last week, the point is to prove that Tesla can still achieve and accomplish extraordinary things.

但真正要紧的，正像你说的——就像我说的，汽车业务做好自己的本分，产生一点现金流，帮助去资助那个大项目。

But what really matters, to your point, is-- So like I said, automotive business doing their part, generating a little bit of money that is going to be helpful to fund the big project.

但接下来的大问题是，Robotaxi 业务和 Optimus 必须开始证明它们能交付，证明特斯拉能把它们做大、规模化和落地。

But the next big part of the question is that the Robotaxi business and the Optimus have to start demonstrating that they can deliver, that Tesla can ramp them, can scale them.

关于这一点，其实不太看数字，因为现在数字还太小了。

And on that, it's not that much about the numbers, because they're too small right now.

关键在于开始达到交付目标和里程碑。

It's about starting to meet deliverables and milestones.

所以，从今天的财报电话会议开始，以及接下来的几周，我真正关注的问题是：我们会不会看到一个具体计划？我们会不会开始看到这个计划有实质性进展，表明这两项业务开始达成那些最终能实现大目标的里程碑？

So the question, what I'm really going to be focused on starting with the earnings call today and in the coming weeks, is are we going to see a plan, a concrete plan, and are we going to start seeing material progress on that plan, against that plan, that shows that these two businesses are starting to deliver against the milestones that are going to ultimately supposed to take them to achieving these big things?

你目前怎么看？

How do you view it currently?

你觉得他们有没有在执行这些交付目标？

Do you think that they are executing on those deliverables?

你是不是对他们的执行情况感到乐观？我们就把焦点放在Robotaxi上吧，因为人形机器人谁知道呢？

Do you feel bullish on their execution of the-- Let's just focus on the Robotaxi, because the humanoid, who knows?

你觉得进展顺利吗？

Do you think that it's going well?

嗯，当我们没有看到公司公布任何实质性的数字、里程碑或交付成果可以参考时，很难说进展顺利。

Well, it's hard to say that it's going well when we don't see any material number or milestones or deliverables announced by the company that we can look into.

所以我们知道的是，公司目前还在慢慢推进，想要证明能用很小的车队安全地运营这些无人出租车。

So what we know is that the company is still going very slowly in an effort to prove that it can run these Robotaxis in a safe way with very small fleet.

而在无人出租车这个行业里，挑战的关键就是信任。

Now, the challenge in this industry for Robotaxi, it's all about trust.

这是第一优先级，从零到十，它排在第一位。

It's the priority one, priority zero, one, up to 10.

你需要赢得监管机构和公众的信任。

You need to build a trust from regulators and from the public.

没有信任，就没有生意。

If you don't have trust, you don't have a business.

我觉得公司现在之所以没有我们期待的那种实质性进展，就是因为他们还在调试和优化系统。

And I think the company right now, the reason why we're not seeing that material progress that we're looking for is simply because they're still tuning and fine-tuning the system.

那只是他们要过的第一关。

So that's only step one that they have to pass.

然后你得证明，如果100辆车能行，1000辆、10000辆也能行，最终追上Waymo——他们现在每周提供50万次全自动驾驶服务。

Then you have to demonstrate that if you do it with 100 cars, you can do it with 1,000 and 10,000, and ultimately catch up to Waymo, who is currently delivering 500,000 rides every week in a fully autonomous way.

我们换个话题，谈谈特斯拉和SpaceX可能合并的事。

Shifting gears here to this potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX.

埃隆说两家公司都成立了特别委员会来探讨合并事宜。

Elon said that both companies have formed these special committees to explore a merger.

看起来这就是他想做的事，这似乎对两家公司、投资者和华尔街都会产生重大影响。

It seems like this is what he wants to do, which seems like it will have massive implications for both companies, for investors, for Wall Street.

你对这个消息怎么看？

What do you make of this news?

你觉得这事能成吗？

Do you think this is going to happen?

我觉得我们得让流程走起来，就像你说的，那些委员会的事。

So I think we have to let the processes happen, like you said, with the committees.

我认为现在真正重要的是，特斯拉该交付的东西一点都不能变。

I think what really matters at this point, it doesn't change any of what Tesla has to deliver.

汽车业务必须证明它能自给自足，并且能为下一步行动提供资金。

The car business has to show that it can fund itself and fund the next moves.

而且Robotaxi也必须证明，就像我们刚才说的，它真的要开始产生效益了。

And the Robotaxi has to demonstrate, as we were saying, that it's going to start delivering.

那说到这桩合并能带来什么变化，对两家公司来说确实都有一些很有意思的机会。

Now, in terms of what it changes, there's for sure interesting opportunities for both companies.

我觉得对特斯拉来说，能用到SpaceX的计算能力和AI，还能共享芯片，这会非常有意思。

I think on the Tesla side, having access to SpaceX compute and AI and being able to share chips is going to be very interesting.

还有一个机会是，跟特斯拉不同，SpaceX已经证明了他们能打造出一个能持续产生现金流的引擎，比如Starlink，可以出租计算能力，每个季度都能赚几十亿美元。

The other opportunity for Tesla is the fact that, so unlike Tesla, SpaceX has demonstrated that they are creating this cash-generating engine, Starlink, the ability to rent compute, and generate billions of dollars every quarter.

所以我们之前聊到特斯拉的资金来源。

So we were talking of the sources of funding for Tesla.

这会成为特斯拉的一个大好机会，再加上两家公司共享的基因、愿景和能力。

That could be a great opportunity for Tesla, along with the common DNA and vision and capabilities that the two organizations share.

所以我觉得，能让人们对潜在合并感到兴奋的，是这样一种能力：这两家组织已经证明了自己有同样的执行力，能快速交付和落地。

So that's, I think, what could get people excited about the potential merger, is this ability for the two organizations that have demonstrated that they share the same ability to execute and deliver and execute very fast.

然后把AI和资金方面的不同优势结合起来。

And then combining the different capabilities in terms of the AI and the funding capability.

这依然没有解决特斯拉需要面对的挑战，即使你解决了自动驾驶的问题，你仍然得建立一项业务，而这项业务是在地面上、在街道上进行的。

It still doesn't change what the challenges that the Tesla has to solve, even if you solve autonomous driving for the robotaxi, you still have to create a business, and that business happens in the streets, on the ground.

所以关键在于制造这些车、交付它们、部署它们、充电、清洁、找到客户、利用它们，等等。

So it's all about making these cars, delivering them, deploying them, charging them, cleaning them, finding customers, and utilizing them, et cetera.

而这些事情，SpaceX 的合并是帮不上忙的。

And these are all things that the SpaceX merger would not help.

这些仍然是特斯拉必须自己去解决的问题。

It's still things that Tesla is going to have to figure out by itself.

我想知道马斯克是否认为这会有帮助，至少在股价方面，因为我经常想，你上次来节目时告诉我们的，特斯拉这个品牌，在工程社区中的形象，已经不像它全盛时期那样耀眼了，而且它吸引顶级人才的能力也不像几年前那样轻松了。

I wonder if Elon believes that it will help, at least from a stock perspective, because, and I think about this a lot, what you told us last time you came on the show, which is that the brand of Tesla, the way it's known among the engineering community, it doesn't have that luster that it used to have during its heyday, and it struggled to attract the top talent in the way that it was able to get them very easily, going back a few years ago.

我在想，这是否就是他把 SpaceX 那种前瞻性的、性感的、新兴的公司的名声——那些在太空部署卫星、可能去开采小行星、在火星建立殖民地的名声——所有这种光鲜的品牌价值，全都注入特斯拉的一种方式。

And I wonder if this is his way to take the reputation of SpaceX as this forward-thinking, sexy, new company that's deploying satellites in space and potentially going to mine asteroids and build colonies on Mars, you name it, that he's taking all of that sexy brand value and then dumping it into Tesla.

然后如果他真的这么做，把两家公司合并，投资者就会说，'我们不太担心你在地面上的业务会怎样了。'

And then perhaps if he does that, if he merges the two together, then investors will say, "We're not so worried about what happens on the ground when it comes to your business."

也许工程师们会说，'哦，是的，我愿意去那家公司工作，因为它现在更酷、更令人兴奋了。'

Maybe engineers will say, "Oh, yeah, I am willing to go work for that company because it's sexier and more exciting now."

我在想，这会不会是他改变投资者看法的一种方式，让他们不再纠结于特斯拉业务（至少是汽车业务）的困境，而是觉得：“别担心，因为他们正在往太空发射火箭呢。”

I wonder if this is his way to sort of change the way that investors see this thing and stop focusing on the fact that the business is struggling, at least on the automotive side, and say, "Don't worry about it, because they're launching rockets into space."

我觉得投资者会怎么想，我没法评论，但就团队和人员方面，我可以说几句。

I think I can't comment for what investors might take out of it, but I can comment in terms of the teams and the people.

你说得完全对，这就是埃隆一贯的做法。他吸引顶尖人才的方式，就是描绘宏大的愿景，提出那些登月式的目标，这确实能吸引人、调动人。

And you're totally right that it's been the consistent approach for Elon, the way he attracts incredible people and incredible talent is by creating this bold vision and putting together these moonshots, that tend to attract and mobilize.

所以这不仅关乎招聘，还关乎如何调动内部员工的积极性。

So it's not only about hiring, it's also about mobilizing the energy internally.

从某种程度来说，上周的演示就是这种策略的一部分。

And in a way, the demo of last week is part of that.

它是在展示——看看我们能做什么。

It's showing, look at what we can do.

如果我们把资源跟SpaceX整合在一起，再把SpaceX的推进器装到Roadster上，那效果就更震撼了。

Even more so when we put our resources together with SpaceX and we put some thrusters from SpaceX on the Roadster.

所以，就是这么回事。

So it's that kind of thing.

那么，你觉得需要合并才能做到这一点吗？

Now, do you need a merger to do that?

不一定，因为十年前，还记得猎鹰重型火箭发射首批载荷的时候吗？我们把特斯拉放上去了，我当时就在特斯拉工作，我们把埃隆的敞篷跑车装了进去，这确实在两个组织之间创造了一种共享的能量和兴奋感。

Not necessarily, because 10 years ago, remember when Falcon Heavy launched their first payload, we put the Tesla, I was at Tesla at the time, we put Elon's Roadster in it, and it did create this kind of shared energy and excitement across the two organizations.

但你说得对，公司需要不断创造这种兴奋感，吸引新人才，并动员现有人才朝着看似不可能的目标努力。

But you're right that there is a constant need for the company to create this excitement and attract new talent and mobilize the existing talent towards impossible goals.

你觉得这是个好主意吗？

Do you think it's a good idea?

作为分析师，作为曾在其中一家公司工作过的人，合并是正确的选择吗？

As an analyst, as someone who used to work for one of these companies, is it the right move to combine?

我觉得这取决于对谁而言，也取决于交易本身，而我们还没看到交易的具体情况。

So I think whether it's a good idea depends for whom, and it also depends on the deal, and we haven't seen the deal, what the deal looks like.

我能告诉你的是，正如我之前所说，从特斯拉的角度来看，这肯定有好处。

What I can tell you, as I was saying earlier, in terms of what's in it for Tesla, there's definitely good things that are in it.

那就是能够获得特斯拉所需的人工智能、计算能力和芯片。

The ability to get access to the AI and the compute and the chips that Tesla needs.

这并不会从根本上改变特斯拉需要做的工作，而合并对此也没有帮助，因为关键仍然在于推进这些实体业务在现实世界中的扩张，这是项艰巨的工作。正如我们在其他扩张过程中看到的，每一次实体业务的扩张都伴随着大量的风险和不确定性。

It doesn't change fundamentally the work to be done by Tesla, and the merger doesn't help on that, because it's still about ramping up these physical businesses in the real world, and that's hard work, and that's, as we've seen from other ramps, and we see it with every physical ramp, there's lots of risk and lots of uncertainties.

但确实在多个方面有帮助，是的，从这个角度来看。

But it definitely helps on a number of topics, yeah, from that perspective.

好的。

Okay.

Karim Bousta是DVx Ventures的联合创始人兼管理合伙人，曾任特斯拉和Lyft的副总裁。

Karim Bousta is co-founder and managing partner at DVx Ventures and former vice president at Tesla and Lyft.

Karim，一直很感谢你。

Karim, always appreciate it.

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢。

Thank you.

广告之后，Meta将公布财报。

After the break, Meta reports earnings.

如果你还想了解更多市场洞察，欢迎订阅我的每周时事通讯《简而言之》，网址是 edwardelson.substack.com。

And for even more markets insights, you can subscribe to my weekly newsletter, Simply Put, at edwardelson.substack.com.

你们是不是已经听腻了那些兄弟们侃侃而谈商业、科技和金融？

Are you tired of hearing about business, tech, and finance from the bros?

我们是“老虎姐妹”，一档顶级商业播客，隶属于 Vox Media 播客网络。

We are "The Tiger Sisters", a top business podcast with the Vox Media Podcast Network.

《老虎姐妹》每周一更新，带你解码金钱、权力和爱情。

"Tiger Sisters" releases every Monday, and we decode money, power, and love.

谁会不喜欢这些话题呢？

And who doesn't love all those things?

我们就是互联网上华尔街和硅谷的大姐姐。

We are the internet's Wall Street and Silicon Valley big sisters.

每周一收听，姐妹夜谈遇上董事会策略。

Tune in every Monday for late-night sister talk meets boardroom strategy.

欢迎在 YouTube、Spotify 或任何你常用的播客平台收听《老虎姐妹》。

Check out "Tiger Sisters" on YouTube, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

欢迎来到老虎家族。

Welcome to the Tiger fam.

本期节目由雅虎财经旗下的AlphaSpace赞助播出。

Support for the show comes from AlphaSpace by Yahoo Finance.

不用再在无数工具和标签页之间来回切换来管理你的投资组合了，雅虎财经的AlphaSpace把整个投资流程整合到一个简单易用的平台上。

Instead of bouncing between countless tools and tabs to manage your portfolio, AlphaSpace by Yahoo Finance brings your entire investment workflow into one easy-to-use platform.

雅虎财经的AlphaSpace利用Yahoo Scout驱动的助手，围绕你想要分析的内容构建个性化视图，并与你的投资组合同步，实现实时跟踪。

AlphaSpace by Yahoo Finance utilizes a Yahoo Scout-powered assistant to build a personalized view around exactly what you want to analyze, then syncs it with your portfolio for real-time tracking.

你可以比较多只股票，从蜡烛图、线图到基本面数据，还可以叠加移动平均线、布林带、RSI、MACD等指标。

You can compare multiple tickers, explore everything from candlestick and line charts to fundamental data, and layer in indicators like moving averages, Bollinger Bands, RSI, MACD, and more.

我的搭档斯科特·加洛韦是这个平台的粉丝。

My cohost, Scott Galloway, is a fan of the platform.

你觉得它怎么样，斯科特？

What did you think of it, Scott?

30年来，我一直把雅虎财经设为我的财经或网页主页。

I have been using Yahoo Finance as my homepage for finance, or for the web actually, for 30 years.

作为一个给对冲基金做过顾问、自己管理资金、并且自认为很擅长投资的人，投资在我生活中占了很大一部分。

And as someone who has advised hedge funds, run my own money, prides themselves on being good at investing, and it takes up a big part of my life.

我觉得他们做得非常出色。

I think they do a fantastic job.

你可以通过 yahoofinance.com/profg 享受 Yahoo Finance Gold 第一年五折优惠，来体验 AlphaSpace。

You can explore Alpha Space with 50% off your first year of Yahoo Finance Gold at yahoofinance.com/profg.

网址是 yahoofinance.com/profg。

That's yahoofinance.com/profg.

第一年收费 239.70 美元，之后每年 479.40 美元。

Billed as $239.70 for the first year, then $479.40 thereafter.

此优惠仅对美国新用户有效。

Offer valid for new subscribers in the US.

优惠截止到 2026 年 10 月 31 日。

Offer ends October 31st, 2026.

本节目的支持来自 Quince。

Support for the show comes from Quince.

现在这个世界不太平。

The world is an uncertain place these days.

如果说有一件事你必须能指望得上，那就是你的裤子。

If there's one thing you want to be able to depend on, it's your pants.

Quince 主打高品质衣橱必备单品，用的都是优质材料，包括 100% 蒙古羊绒、有机棉和美利奴羊毛。

Quince focuses on high-quality wardrobe staples made with premium materials, including 100% Mongolian cashmere, organic cotton, and Merino wool.

这些款式经典不过时，百搭，而且设计得让你天天想穿，成为你离不开的可靠单品。

These styles are timeless, versatile, and designed to become the dependable pieces you reach for day after day.

Quince 之所以能把价格定得比同类品牌低 50% 到 80%，是因为他们直接跟工厂合作，所以你付的是高品质的钱，而不是品牌溢价。

Quince is able to price all these pieces 50% to 80% lower than similar brands because they work directly with factories, so you're paying for high quality, not brand markup.

我有第一件 Quince 的衣服了。

I have my first Quince piece.

我买了一件羊绒衫。

I bought a cashmere sweater.

我真的很喜欢。

I really like it.

它让我想起某个品牌，但我不说是哪个，反正是一个非常高端点的意大利品牌。

Reminds me a little bit of, I won't say what brand, but a very high-end Italian brand.

它是必备款，而且价格非常合适。

It's a staple, and the price point is great.

去奎恩斯找找你的秋季最爱吧。

Find your next fall favorites at Quince.

下载奎恩斯App获取专属优惠，或者访问quin国内网。

Download the Quince app for app-exclusive offers or go to quince.com.

你的订单享受免费配送，还有365天退货服务。

Get free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.

现在在加拿大和英国也能买到。

Now available in Canada and the UK too.

当奎恩斯问你从哪里听说他们的时候，告诉他们来自Prof G Markets。

And when Quince asks where you heard about them, let them know it was Prof G Markets.

这是支持我们节目最好的方式。

It's the best way to support the show.

我们回到《Prof G Markets》。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

Meta 第三季度营收创纪录，同比增长了26%。

Meta reported record revenue in the third quarter, up 26% from a year earlier.

每股收益也超出了预期，但因为与青少年心理健康和解相关的法律费用，受到了影响。

Earnings per share also beat expectations but took a hit from legal fees tied to its teen mental health settlement.

公司还宣布计划设立一个新的无投票权股票类别，以便筹集开发运行AI模型所需的资金。

The company also announced plans to create a new class of non-voting stock to potentially raise the capital needed to develop and run its AI models.

财报发布后，股价上涨了超过3%。

The stock rose more than 3% following the earnings report.

为了深入分析Meta的财报，我们请到了Evercore的资深董事总经理Mark Mahaney。

Joining us to break down Meta's earnings, we're speaking with Mark Mahaney, Senior Managing Director at Evercore.

Mark，很高兴见到你。

Mark, great to see you.

我看到这些数字，营收增长了26%。

I'm looking at these numbers, revenue up 26%.

表现超出了预期，创下了历史新高。

It was a beat, it was an all-time high.

净利润也在增长。

Net income up.

总的来说，这份报告看起来相当不错。

Generally speaking, pretty good report it seems.

你怎么看？

What do you make of it?

你说得没错，Ed。

I think you got it, Ed.

这是一份不错的报告。

It was a good report.

市场的期望值很高。

Expectations were high.

而业绩也达到了期望。

Expectations were met.

他们给出了一些非常有趣的数据点，关于参与度持续上升，甚至在Facebook和Instagram上每年都有两位数的百分比增长，这得益于使用人工智能来改进内容推荐。

There were a couple of really interesting data points they gave about engagement continuing to rise, even double digit percent year over year growth at things like Facebook and at Instagram, and that's due to the use of AI to improve content recommendations.

然后他们给出的一些底层指标，每条广告的价格大约上涨了14%，广告展示次数大约增长了10%到12%。

And then some of the underlying metrics they gave you, about 14% increase in price per ad, and roughly 10, 12% increase in a number of ad impressions.

在应用层有一个很好的例子，Meta，一个利用AI来改善其业务的公司，Meta。

There's a great example out there at the application layer, Meta, of a company using AI to improve its business, Meta.

所以向他们致敬，他们对下个季度的指引暗示这种收入增长将保持在20%到30%的中高水平。

So kudos to them, and the guidance they gave for this next quarter implies that this revenue growth is going to stay in this mid to high 20s.

然后他们谈到了明年，他们没有给出太多指引，但他们说会有强劲的收入增长，这对他们来说有点不寻常。

And then they talk about next year, they didn't give a lot of guidance, but they said strong revenue growth, which is a little unusual for them to do something like that.

所以我想市场也会对此作出积极解读。

And so I think the market's going to interpret that as well.

他们目前的收入增长速度大约是行业平均水平的两倍，这种增长应该是可持续的，应该是稳固的。

The revenue growth that they're currently doing, which is about 2x that of the industry averages, should be resilient, should be sticky.

你指出的一个问题是他们提供的C类股票，所以一个合理的问题是你们这样做是为了筹集资金。

The one thing you did point out is the Class C shares that they're offering, and so a reasonable question is you're doing this to raise capital.

那涉及多少资金呢？

How much capital are we talking about?

他们现在不会回答这个问题，但我猜很快就会知道答案。

And they're not going to answer that now, but I assume we're going to get an answer to that very soon.

对。

Yes.

我一会儿会再回到那个无投票权股份的话题，因为那挺有意思的。

I'm going to return to that non-voting class shares in a moment because it's pretty fascinating.

但你刚才提到那些数字，广告单价上涨了14%，广告展示量增加了10%。

But you mentioned some of those numbers, the price per ad going up 14%, the number of ad impressions going up 10%.

看起来Meta的核心业务，像Instagram、Facebook，还有现在的Threads，都在迅速发展。

It seems like Meta's bread and butter businesses, Instagram, Facebook, I guess now Threads, all of those things are on a tear.

看起来他们也从中受益，不管他们用了多少AI来改进推荐。

It seems like they're also benefiting from to whatever extent they're using AI to improve those recommendations.

我们在数字里也看到了这一点。

We're seeing it reflected in the numbers.

我觉得接下来Meta要面对的一个问题，而且他们夏天的时候因为这个被批评过，就是他们在巨额资本支出上到底能不能看到真正的投资回报。

I think one of the next questions for Meta, and they got beat up over the summer on this, is are they actually going to see real ROI on their extraordinary capital expenditures?

我们刚刚了解到，已经确认全年资本支出会在1350亿到1450亿美元之间。

Which we just learned, we got confirmation that the full year CapEx is going to come somewhere between $135 billion and $145 billion.

我很想听听你对这个资本支出问题的看法，因为看起来市场现在对Meta更兴奋，但好像也有点争议，我也说不准。

I'd be curious to get your reactions to this CapEx question, because it seems like the markets are more excited about Meta at this point, but it seems also like, I don't know, there might be some debate.

嗯，我觉得市场比上次财报时兴奋了40%，那是因为产品本身。

Well, I think the market's 40% more excited than it was- ... last earnings, and that's because the products.

因为Muse和Muse Wonderful。

It's because of Muse and Muse Wonderful.

他们推出了一款特别棒的应用。

They launched a really killer app.

我很久没听过这种说法了，但他们确实做到了。

I haven't heard that, I haven't used that expression in a long time, but they did.

Muse，我不知道它是不是还在下载榜第一，但离得很近，而且已经霸榜30天了。

And Muse is, I don't know if it's still the top of the download charts, but it's pretty damn close to it, and it has been for 30 days.

用过这个产品的人，我不确定这就是我们以后都会用的个人助理，但它很有潜力成为那样。

And people who have used it, I don't know that this is the personal agent that we're all going to use, but it's got a decent shot of being.

而且现在他们是唯一一个没有设付费墙的，所以基本上整个市场都是他们的。

And right now they're the only one that's outside of paywall, and so right now they have essentially the whole market to themselves.

这确实挺令人震惊的，再加上Instinct这家公司。

It's sort of shocking, along with this company Instinct.

但最关键的还是这里需要的规模，现在他们真的独占市场。

But just the scale of what's required here, right now they really have the market to themselves.

所以市场看到了人工智能的投资回报率。

And so the market is seeing ROAI.

你投入了这么多资本支出和研发，最后我们得到了什么？

You're spending all this CapEx and all this R&D, and what do we get for it?

扎克伯格他们就说：看，这就是你们得到的。

And Zuckerberg and company said, "Well, this is what you got for it.

你们有了Muse和Wonderful。

You got Muse and you got Wonderful."

而且大多数人都在评估Wonderful，并且看到它重新回到了前沿，或者说这是Meta第一次进入前沿领域。

And most people are evaluating Wonderful and seeing it back at the frontier or on the frontier for the first time for Meta.

所以是的，市场至少在产品方面看到了回报，现在就要看变现能力了。

So yeah, the market at least has seen a return in terms of the product, and now it's going to come down to the monetization.

但这家公司很擅长在界面和产品上变现，无论是过去的Threads、WhatsApp、Reels还是Stories。

But this company is pretty good at monetizing surfaces and products, whether it's Threads or WhatsApp or Reels or Stories in the past.

所以我觉得市场可能会给他们一些信任，因为他们已经证明了能够推出产品。

So I think the market will probably give them the benefit of the doubt in terms of being able to-- They proved that they can generate the products.

变现是更容易的部分。

Monetization's the easier thing.

你觉得这个产品的变现会是什么样子？

What do you think the monetization will look like for this product?

我不确定是不是广告。

I I'm not sure if it's going to be ads.

其实我不知道他们有没有规划过具体的样子，但我们知道如果Muse成功的话，他们会怎么变现吗？

I actually don't know if they've outlined what it will look like, but do we know how they will monetize Muse if it's a success?

这个问题在财报电话会上提了一点，埃德，而且我们还和扎克伯格还有其他分析师一起追问了。

It came up a little bit, Ed, in the earnings call, and actually pressed Zuckerberg, along with other analysts.

但我问的是他关于变现时机的看法。

But I asked him about the timing of monetization.

他实际上说，这个会比他们通常推出新界面或新功能时的惯例要快一些，部分原因是因为相关的成本太高了，计算成本太大了。

He actually said it would be a little bit faster than what they typically do in terms of monetizing new surfaces or features as they come out, in part because the costs are so high, the compute costs are so great associated with this.

他们在财报电话会上放话了，说能把Muse的每个计算成本降低10倍。

They made some pretty bold statements on their earnings call about being able to reduce cost 10X, the cost per compute for Muse.

这个声明挺大胆的。

That's a pretty bold statement.

我们看看他们能不能说到做到。

We'll see if they can back that up.

但他们提到要通过订阅收入来变现，不过对绝大多数人来说会是免费的。

But they talked about monetizing it through subscription revenue, but it'll be free for the vast majority of people.

然后还通过广告——实际上，他们说的是交易分成。

And then through advertising-- Actually, they say a share of transactions.

我再给你一个词来形容，埃德，就是广告。

I'll give you another word for that, Ed, advertising.

所以他们要做的是，在电话会议上他们给了你这个数据点。

So what they're going to do, and they gave you this data point on the call.

他们说，有25%的Muse用户在使用它进行与购物相关的活动。

They said 25% of Muse users are using it for commerce-related activities.

当我追问时，那包括旅行，他说平均价格是200美元。

When I pressed him, that includes travel, and he said the average price was $200.

当然，这包括了旅行。

Of course, that includes travel.

没有多少人会进行200美元的零售购买，但如果你要订旅行，当然，价格点就会这么高。

Not too many people are doing $200 retail purchases, but yeah, if you're going to book travel, of course, your price point's up like that.

而如果Muse引导人们去旅行网站、酒店、航空公司或在线旅行社，那么不久后他们就会转向这些商家说，"好的，我们要从中抽成。"

And if Muse is leading people to travel sites, to hotels, to airlines, or to the online travel agencies, it's just a matter of time before they turn to those and say, "Okay, we're going to want a take rate on that."

我不知道是3%，5%，还是类似的费率。

I don't know if it's 3%, 5%, something like that.

所以是的，那个就要来了。

And so yeah, that's coming.

总之，这就是他们的变现方式。

And anyway, so that's how they're going to monetize it.

确实，Muse 看起来取得了巨大的成功，这从使用量和下载量上都能看出来。

It does seem like Muse has been a phenomenal success, and we saw that in the usage, we saw that in the number of downloads.

我同意你的看法，如果有人能想出办法把一个产品榨干变现，那一定是马克·扎克伯格。

And I agree with you, if anyone's going to figure out a way to monetize the crap out of a product, it's going to be Mark Zuckerberg.

但这也面临一个很高的门槛，那就是他们今年为此已经花了或打算花1450亿美元，可能还有一些后续的东西。

But it's also got a very, very high hurdle rate, which is that they spent or are planning to spend $145 billion this year for this, maybe some other things down the line.

所以当你想到这个数字时，你是否有信心这就是能带来回报、让那些数十亿美元的数据中心投入值得的东西？

So when you think about that number, do you feel confident that this is the thing that's going to generate the return, that's going to make those billions of dollars in data center spending, that's going to make it all worth it?

还是说他们还需要想出别的办法？

Or do they need to come up with something else as well?

我不知道。

I don't know.

埃德，你问到了关键问题。

You're asking the right question, Ed.

首先，我觉得我们应该考虑几件事。

One, I think we should think about a couple of things.

我觉得他们在资本支出和研发上的投入，还在进一步支撑核心业务。

I think their CapEx and R&D investments are still further powering the core business.

广告收入增长达到26%，再次是行业平均的两倍，我觉得这部分要归功于资本支出，因为他们用AI来改进推荐系统、内容推荐，以及广告推荐和定向。

I think the fact that ad revenue growth is at 26%, again, twice the industry average, I think that's in part due to that CapEx spending, like that they are using AI to improve their recommendations, their content recommendations, and their ad recommendations and ad targeting.

所以已经有一些部分在帮助核心业务了。

So there's a little bit of that already helping the core business.

然后还有Muse。

Then you've got Muse.

最后，可能还会有一些企业级应用。

In the end, you may have some enterprise plays here.

哦，抱歉。

Oh, I'm sorry.

我觉得他们还会推出针对企业代理的Meta服务。

I think they're also going to do Meta for business agents.

他们今晚发布了一个新数据。

They gave a new data point tonight.

他们说了，全球有5亿家企业正在使用Meta及其所有应用。

They said 500 million businesses worldwide exist, use Meta and all of its apps.

你比大多数人都清楚，在世界上很多地方，WhatsApp就像是互联网一样。

And you would know it better than most people, WhatsApp is kind of the internet if you leave for vast swaths of the world.

所以，有这么多小企业使用他们的应用系列，而Meta for Business作为一个订阅服务，可以向每家企业收取每月10美元或20美元，相对较少的费用。

And so the fact that they've got that many small businesses that are on their family of properties, and so with Meta for Business, a subscription business that may charge each one of these businesses $10, $20, something relatively small a month.

但考虑到企业数量规模，这可能也是一个巨大的机会。

But that could be, given the scale of that number of businesses, that could be a big opportunity, too.

所以我认为，除了Muse之外，还有更多业务有望带来收入和利润。

So I think there's more than just Muse as generating the revenue and the profits, hopefully over time.

而且这需要大量的工作去做。

And it's going to need a lot of work to do.

我倒不那么担心怎么赚钱。

I'm less concerned about the monetization.

我觉得他们会想明白的。

I think they'll figure that out.

他们在这方面挺有一套的。

They're pretty good at it.

至于他们能不能真的把成本降得那么快，那就等着看吧。

Whether they can really bring that cost curve down that aggressively, we'll see.

另外，他们也得给我们看看Meta的商业代理，说不定还有企业级的东西，不过我对Meta进军企业市场有点怀疑。

And then they also have to show us Meta Business Agents and maybe something in the enterprise, although I'm sort of skeptical about Meta in the enterprise.

Meta作为面向消费者的AI，那是可以的。

Meta as a consumer AI play, yes.

Meta作为面向中小企业的AI，也没问题。

Meta as an SMB AI play, yes.

企业级市场嘛，我就不太确定了。

Enterprise play, I don't know.

看起来还是有一些问题悬而未决，投资者基本上就只能信任扎克伯格，也许这么做是对的。

That seems like there are some questions still at large where investors are kind of expected just to trust Zuckerberg, and maybe that's the right thing to do.

但说到信任马克·扎克伯格，我们得知了这些新发行的无投票权股票。

But speaking of trusting Mark Zuckerberg, we learned about these new non-voting shares that have been issued.

据我了解，他们这么做的原因是，这样马克·扎克伯格或者梅塔可以出售更多股权，可能为了筹集更多资金，用来建更多数据中心或加大对AI的投资，而扎克伯格还能继续基本上完全掌控公司的决策。

And from my understanding, the reason that they are doing this is so that Mark Zuckerberg or so that Meta can potentially sell more equity, potentially to raise more capital, to potentially build more data centers or invest more in AI, while Zuckerberg continues to maintain essentially total control over the decisions of the company.

他一直是那种典型创始人，利用双重股权结构来决定公司的发展方向。

He has been sort of the archetypal founder who has taken advantage of dual-class shareholder structures to decide the trajectory.

所以我对此总是有点怀疑，但也许我不该这样，因为到目前为止，给扎克伯格控制权对梅塔的股东来说结果是好的。

So I'm always just kind of a little bit cynical about this, but maybe I shouldn't be because it's worked out for Meta shareholders so far, giving Zuckerberg the control.

那你怎么看这个决定呢？

But what do you make of that decision?

嗯，我觉得有两点。

Well, I guess two things.

对于这些C类股票，我不太确定这样做是不是合适的募资方式，如果他们真要这么做的话。

These Class C shares, I don't have a strong opinion on whether that's the right way to do an equity raise, if that's what they're going to do.

这有点不同寻常，但未必就是坏事。

It's a little unusual, but it doesn't necessarily make it bad.

但确实，如果你买Meta，你买的是马克·扎克伯格公司的一部分，而且你并不是非买不可。

But yes, if you're buying Meta, you're buying a share of Mark Zuckerberg's company, and you don't have to.

没人强迫你买。

There's nobody forcing you to.

有几家公司是这样的。

There's a few companies like that.

如果你买亚马逊或微软的股票，你不会受制于创始人。

You're not beholden to the owner that way if you buy, say, shares of Amazon or Microsoft.

但有几家公司，像SpaceX、特斯拉和Meta，你买入时实际上没有有意义的投票权，你买的是一个由创始人拥有的资产。

But there's a few companies like SpaceX, Tesla, and Meta where you are buying into with no real material voting rights, you're buying into an asset that's owned by the founder.

所以，是的，至少这一切都是明摆着的。

And so, yeah, at least it's all upfront.

你可以自己决定这是不是个好主意。

You can decide whether that's a good idea or not.

而且我觉得，公平地说，他和马斯克可能是大型科技公司里仅存的由创始人领导的公司老板了，至少在我关注的那些公司里是这样。

And I guess in all fairness, he and Musk, I guess, are the only real founders led amongst the major tech companies that I look at that are still founder-led companies.

而且我觉得他总体上，作为企业管理者，干得是相当不错的。

And I think he's generally, as a business manager, I think he's generally done a pretty good job.

马克·马哈尼是Evercore的高级董事总经理。

Mark Mahaney is the senior managing director at Evercore.

马克，感谢你参加我们的节目。

Mark, thank you for joining us.

谢谢你，艾德。

Thanks, Ed.

Netflix的股价再次下跌，因为这家公司报告了三年以来最慢的营收增长。

Netflix stock is sliding again after the company reported its slowest revenue growth in three years.

这家流媒体巨头的销售额达到了129亿美元，比去年同期增长了12%，听起来还不错，但你要对比一下上一季度将近14%的营收增长，再上个季度16%的增长，再之前甚至更高，你就会开始意识到Netflix的业务正在放缓。

The streamer's sales rose to $12.9 billion, which was 12% higher than the year before, which sounds okay, but then you compare it to the previous quarter of nearly 14% revenue growth, and the quarter before that with 16% revenue growth, and the quarter before that where revenue growth was even higher, and you start to realize that Netflix's business is beginning to slow down.

现在，如果你对流媒体行业持乐观态度，这个消息可能会让你措手不及。

Now, if you were bullish on streaming, this news might have caught you off guard.