为何市场不惧怕凯文·沃什

你有没有回看过自己在互联网上发布的内容，然后觉得：天啊，这真尴尬？

Do you ever look back on something you posted on the Internet and think, well, that was cringe?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我回头看那些东西，就觉得这真是那个时代的典型代表。

I mean, I look back at that stuff, and I'm just like, it's so emblematic of the era.

而且我还会想，我当初怎么会觉得这些东西能经得起时间的考验呢？

And it's also just like, why did I think this would age well, like, in the slightest?

本周《Vox》的《为你解释》节目，谈谈如何处理你的网络遗憾？

This week on Explain It To Me from Vox, what to do with your online regret?

新节目每周日上线，可在你收听播客的任何平台收听。

New episodes on Sundays wherever you get your podcasts.

今天的数字是35。

Today's number, 35.

这是地面鼠菲尔预测冬季延长或春天提前的准确率百分比。

That's Punxsutawney Phil's percentage accuracy rate in predicting either a longer winter or an early spring.

提醒一下，我们国家最重要的气象学家是一只大型啮齿动物，而我们的总统也是如此。

A reminder that our nation's foremost meteorologist is a large rodent who makes guesses, and so is our president.

17000。

17,000.

我觉得我很抱歉。

I feel like I'm sorry.

货币市场疯了。

Money market's mad.

如果钱是邪恶的，那么那栋大楼就是地狱。

If money is evil, then that building is hell.

先知尼拉杰想要这个节目。

The Prophet Niraj wants the show.

成交。

Sold.

欢迎来到先知G市场。

Welcome to Prophet G Markets.

我是埃德·埃尔森。

I'm Ed Elson.

今天是2月3日。

It is February 3.

让我们来看看昨天的市场关键数据。

Let's check-in on yesterday's market vitals.

主要指数在数据显示制造业活动达到近四年最大增幅后上涨。

The major indices climbed after data showed manufacturing activity expanded the most in nearly four years.

国债收益率和美元也有所上升。

Treasury yields also rose as did the dollar.

与此同时，黄金和白银的抛售势头有所缓和。

Meanwhile, the gold and silver sell off moderated.

稍后我们会详细介绍。

More on that in a moment.

最后，特朗普总统表示，美国和印度已达成贸易协议，并立即降低关税。

And finally, president Trump said The US and India have reached a trade deal and are lowering tariffs immediately.

好的。

Okay.

还有哪些事情正在发生？

What else is happening?

特朗普总统提名凯文·沃尔什担任下一任美联储主席。

President Trump nominated Kevin Walsh to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve.

如果参议院确认他的提名，沃尔什将在杰罗姆·鲍威尔任期届满的五月接任。

If the senate confirms him, Walsh will take over in May when Jerome Powell's term expires.

特朗普表示，沃尔什是这个职位的“完美人选”，并承诺他绝不会让你失望。

Trump said Walsh is, quote, central casting for the role and promised that he will never let you down.

在特朗普宣布这一消息后，美元走强，但美国股市下跌。

The dollar strengthened after Trump's announcement, but US stocks declined.

现在，一个重大问题困扰着投资者。

Now one big question is weighing on investors.

沃尔什会领导一个独立的央行，还是会仅仅满足总统想要的所有降息要求？

Will Walsh lead an independent central bank, or will he simply deliver all the rate cuts that the president wants?

今天我们邀请到穆迪分析公司的首席经济学家马克·赞迪，来讨论这一新提名及其对美联储未来的影响。

Here to discuss this new pick and what it means for the future of the Fed, we're speaking with Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.

马克，欢迎再次做客Profty Markets。

Mark, welcome back to Profty Markets.

嗨，埃德。

Hey, Ed.

很高兴能和你交流。

It's good to be with you.

感谢你给我这个机会。

Thanks for the opportunity.

所以，凯文·沃尔什，是的。

So, Kevin Walsh Yeah.

我想我们就从你的初步反应开始吧。

I guess we'll just start with your reactions.

你对这个提名怎么看？

What do you make of that pick?

这是一个相当不错的选择，埃德。

Reasonably good choice, Ed.

我认为，他的优势在于他曾在美国金融危机期间担任过美联储的职务。

I think, you know, his his strength is he's been on the Fed before during the financial crisis.

在那段时间里，他是本·伯南克的得力助手。

He was Ben Bernanke's right hand man during that period.

他出身于华尔街。

He he's born of Wall Street.

他曾经是一名投资银行家，因此熟悉市场，受过法律训练。

He was an investment banker, so he knows markets, lawyer by training.

所以我认为他具备所有必要的资历。

So I think he has all the credentials.

他认识世界各地的央行官员，因此无论需要和谁沟通，他都能应对自如。

He knows central bank bankers around around the world, so, you know, he can talk to whomever he needs to.

所以我认为这是一个相当不错的人选。

So I I think it's a it's a reasonably good pick.

市场反应相当有趣。

The reaction from the markets has been kind of interesting.

美元走强。

The dollar strengthened.

股市下跌。

Stocks fell.

很多人说，市场的反应实际上是在告诉我们，凯文·沃尔什就是新的保罗·沃尔克。

A lot of people are saying that that the market's reaction is basically telling us that Kevin Walsh is the new Paul Volcker.

我只是想听听你对这种说法的看法。

I just wanted to get your reactions to that characterization.

你觉得这种说法有道理吗？你对市场的反应有什么看法？

Do you think that makes sense, and what did you make of how markets have been reacting?

是的。

Yeah.

我不觉得应该对市场反应过度解读。

I don't know I'd read too much into markets.

我的意思是，最清晰的解读来自债券市场，也就是十年期国债收益率，它只变动了几个基点。

I mean, the cleanest read is from the bond market, the ten year treasury yield, and that kinda moved a basis point or two.

所以，嗯。

So Mhmm.

反应并不大。

Not much of reaction.

你知道，黄金和白银价格确实出现了一波抛售。

You know, there was a sell off in the in gold prices, silver prices.

我觉得投资者可能把黄金和白银当作一种对冲尾部风险的工具，担心总统会选一个没那么靠谱、没那么有分量的人。

You know, maybe I think investors were using gold and silver kind of as a tail a hedge against the tail risk that the president picked someone someone else that wasn't going to be quite as respectable and good.

但一旦明确沃什是被选定的人选，这些价格就回落了。

And once it was clear that Worsch was the the the chosen one, those prices fell back in.

但总体而言，我认为市场原本就预期沃什会当选，并对这一选择感到满意。

But broadly speaking, I think markets expected Worsch and felt pretty good about the choice.

所以，我觉得市场的反应与这一观点非常一致。

So I I think I think I think the market reaction is pretty consistent with that view.

有趣的是，我们都想知道会是谁。

It is interesting that, you know, we're all wondering who's it gonna be.

会是他吗？

Is it gonna be him?

会是凯文·哈斯吗？

Is it gonna be Kevin Hass?

会是沃勒吗？

Is it gonna be Waller?

是的。

Yeah.

他选择了看起来最有主见的那个人。

He went with the guy that appears to have perhaps the strongest spine.

我的看法是，他是当时人选中最好的选择。

I mean, my reaction was he was kind of the best option that was on the table.

你知道，在这次选举前的几个月里，他表现得有点阿谀奉承。

You know, he was being a little bit of a sycophant in the months leading up to this election.

但总的来说，我觉得他可能是这些选项中最独立的一个。

But overall, I mean, it seems like he's probably gonna be the most independent of the options.

我只是想知道你是否同意这一点。

I'm just wondering if you agree with that.

如果是的话，为什么特朗普选了他？

And and and if so, why did Trump go with him?

他为什么没有选一个完全的马屁精？

Why didn't he go with a total sycophant?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，其他选择我觉得也不错，相当不错。

I you know, the other choices were, I think, also good, reasonably good.

你提到了凯文·哈塞特。

I mean, you mentioned Kevin Hassett.

我觉得他也会表现得一样好。

You know, I think he would've done just as well.

好的。

Okay.

我认为他有一个智力上的指南针。

I think he's got a intellectual North Star.

他受过经济学家的训练。

He's an economist by training.

沃勒当然是一位非常出色的经济学家，我认为他会捍卫美联储的独立性。

Waller, of course, is a very good economist, and I think would fight for Fed independence.

我对黑石的那位人士不太了解，但总体上，我觉得他们都是不错的选择。

I don't I don't know the fellow from BlackRock that well, but I think generally, I think they were all, you know, pretty good choices.

但你说得对。

But you're right.

这确实很有趣。

It it is interesting.

我的意思是，你会说凯文·沃尔什更偏向鹰派，至少从历史上看，他更支持维持较高利率而非较低利率的政策。

I mean, you'd say Kevin Walsh is more of the hawk, at least historically, been more supportive of policies that would keep interest rates higher rather than lower.

当然，总统已经明确表示他希望降低利率。

Of course, the president's made it very clear he wants lower interest rates.

对，没错。

So Right.

从这个角度看，这并不寻常。

It's unusual in that sense.

但你知道，凯文·沃什，我认为总统说的是，就像从中央 casting 里走出来的角色。

But, you know, Kevin Worsch is I think the president said it, afraid from central casting.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，他看起来就像一位央行官员。

I mean, he looks like a central banker.

他非常圆滑。

He he's very smooth.

他说话非常清晰流畅。

He speaks very articulately.

他说话非常果断。

He speaks definitively.

你知道，你可以理解为什么总统可能会喜欢他。

You know, you can see why the president might like him.

他出身富裕，家境殷实。

He comes from money, wealth.

你知道，他是通过婚姻进入了STLR家族的财富圈。

You know, he's married into the STLR fortune.

我认为这很可能引起了共鸣。

I think that probably resonates.

因为归根结底，选择是一个非常个人化的决定，你必须对你为总统挑选的人感到非常安心。

And because at the end of the day, a choice is a very personal decision, and gotta feel very comfortable with the person you're picking for president.

我认为这确实起到了帮助作用。

And I think that just helped.

所以我不确定总统是否太关注凯文·莫里斯过去对量化宽松或美联储应该如何处理利率问题的看法。

So I I don't know that the president was too focused on what the what Kevin Morris has said in the past about quantitative easing or, you know, what the Fed should be doing with regard to interest rates.

他们在做出选择他的决定时，更关注这些非货币相关的因素。

They're more focused on these nonmonetary related factors when making his decision to choose him.

你认为这对美联储和未来的利率意味着什么？

What do you think this does mean for the Fed and for interest rates going forward?

这是否意味着，我们会像总统希望的那样，更慢地降息？

Is this gonna mean, you know, that we're gonna not cut rates as quickly as the president would like?

我认为，在当前背景下，美联储的关键点在于，凯文·沃什只是其中一票。

I I think know, here's the important point about the the Fed in the current context is Kevin Worsch is just one vote.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，这是一个由12人组成的委员会，你需要获得多数票。

I mean, this this is a a committee of 12, and you gotta get a majority of votes.

我认为，有两三个委员几乎不管经济数据如何都倾向于降息，但美联储公开市场委员会的绝大多数成员——包括五位地区联储银行行长——不会这样投票。

And I think the, you know, there's a couple three votes that are inclined to lower rates almost regardless of what the economic data say, but the the vast majority of members of the FOMC, which includes five presidents of district Federal Reserve Banks, they're they're not gonna vote that way.

所以我认为，在可预见的近期内，我们可以放心，利率决策将基于经济表现，而不是政治环境。

So I think at least in the near future, foreseeable future, I think we're on safe ground here that we're gonna get decisions, interest rate decisions that are, you know, determined by economic how the economy is performing as opposed to what the political environment is like.

另一个需要考虑的是，如果一切按部就班，凯文·沃什直到五月才会接任主席，而那时离选举已经很近了。

The other thing to consider is if everything kinda sticks to script, Kevin Worsch won't take the chair until May, and you're already pretty close to the election.

所以我认为，那时总统会迫切希望降息。

So that's when I think the president would desperately want the rate cuts.

但你知道，现在时间已经很晚了，而且由于需要通过参议院的确认程序，这个过程可能会拖得更久。

But, you know, it's getting late in the game already, and, you know, this may drag on for longer just because of getting him through the senate confirmation process.

所以我不确定这件事对总统来说究竟什么时候才真正重要。

So I'm not sure when this really matters to the president.

凯文·莫里斯将拥有显著的影响力，至少足以推动总统所希望的降息。

Kevin is gonna Kevin Morris is gonna have significant sway at least enough sway here to get those rate cuts that the president wants.

是的。

Yeah.

我本来想问问参议院确认的事，因为汤姆·蒂利斯参议员表示，在司法部调查结束前，他会阻挠任何提名人选。

I was gonna ask about the senate confirmation because senator Tom Tillis said he would block any nominee until that DOJ probe is resolved.

当然，这是司法部对杰罗姆·鲍威尔的调查，我想这个调查仍在进行中。

Of course, this was the Department of Justice's investigation into Jerome Powell, which I guess is ongoing.

他说，除非你先关闭这件事，否则不会发生。

And he's saying not gonna happen until you, I guess, shut that down.

你认为这个参议院确认程序会怎样发展？

What do you think will happen with this senate confirmation process?

你觉得这会是一个漫长、复杂的过程吗？这对时间表意味着什么？

Do you think that this is going to be a sort of long, drawn out, complicated process, or what does that all mean for the timeline?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为参议员穆尔科夫斯基也会这样。

Well, I think senator Murkowski too.

她也是来自阿拉斯加的参议院共和党人。

Also, she's a senate Republican from Alaska.

她和蒂利斯说了同样的话。

She said the same thing as Tillis.

在司法部对鲍威尔的诉讼解决之前，她不会投票支持沃施。

She's she's not gonna vote for for Worsh until that's settled the DOJ's suit against Powell settled.

我的感觉是，总统会找到办法让司法部的诉讼撤下来。

My sense is that the president will figure out a way to stand down on the DOJ law lawsuit.

我不认为这是个明智的策略，我觉得他想坐上那个椅子。

I I don't I don't think that's a winning strategy, and I think he wants to get worse in a chair.

所以我不确定他会怎么做，或者会以什么形式实现，但我认为归根结底，事情会朝这个方向发展。

So I I I'm not sure how he does it or what form that takes, but I think at the end of the day, that's what's gonna happen here.

因为根本没什么实质内容，大家都心知肚明。

Because there really isn't anything there, and everyone knows it.

我认为总统最终会意识到，这根本不是个能赢的策略。

And I think the president, you know, ultimately will decide that it's just not a winning strategy.

如果他真有什么特别擅长的事，那就是灵活转向，我觉得他在这里也会这么做。

And if there's one thing he's good really, really good at, it's at pivoting, and I think I'll pivot here.

这大概就是我的判断。

That'd be my sense of it.

在放你走之前，我最后一个问题是。

My final question before we let you go.

这将是鲍威尔任期的终结。

This will be the end of Powell's tenure.

他的遗产会是什么？

What will his legacy be?

教科书和历史书会如何记住杰罗姆·鲍威尔作为美联储主席的角色？

What how will textbooks and history books remember Jerome Powell as federal reserve chair?

我当然希望，他与这位总统之间的争斗不会成为历史上被记载下来、或至少是人们关注的重点。

Well, I sure hope it's not that the battles he's having with this president that may be ending up to be as, you know, what goes down in the history books or at least what people pay attention to.

我希望不是这样，因为他一直是一位非常出色的美联储主席。

I hope that's not the case because he's he's been a very good fed chairman.

他带领经济度过了许多艰难时期，疫情是最明显的例子，而那段时间确实非常难熬。

He's navigated navigated this economy through some very difficult times, the pandemic being the most obvious, and that that was pretty difficult to to navigate.

归根结底，我们如今就在这里。

And, you know, at the end of the day, here we are.

我们已经实现了充分就业，或者非常接近了，失业率是4.4%。

We're at full employment or pretty close, 4.4% unemployment rate.

通胀略高，但如果没有那些关税，我们早就回到美联储的目标了。

Inflation is a little on the high side, but if not for those tariffs, we'd be right back to the Fed's target.

所以

So

是的

Right.

如果他的目标是那两项使命——充分就业和低而稳定的通胀，那么这两点都做到了。

If his goal is those two mandates, full employment and low and stable inflation, check, check.

他做到了。

He he did it.

所以我认为他应该被历史记为一位优秀的美联储主席。

So I think he should go down history as a good Fed chair.

另一点是，他是一位典型的央行行长。

And the other thing is he's the prototypical central banker.

他努力寻求共识。

He works to gain consensus.

他非常了解他的同事。

He he knows his colleagues well.

他与他们合作得很好。

He works with them well.

他就是美联储，你知道，我希望未来能有更多像鲍威尔主席这样的美联储主席。

He he is the fed, and, you know, I think, hopefully, we get a lot more fed, chairs, in the future like, like Chair Powell.

好的。

Alright.

穆迪分析公司的首席经济学家马克·赞迪。

Mark Zandy, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.

马克，总是很高兴邀请你。

Mark, always love having you.

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我很感激。

I'd appreciate that.

广告后，迪士尼股价下跌。

After the break, Disney stock takes a tumble.

如果你喜欢这个节目，请分享给朋友，如果还没关注的话，请关注我们。

If you're enjoying the show, send it to a friend, and please follow us if you haven't already.

也许你感觉不到，但特朗普的支持率是历史上最低的之一。

It may not feel like it, but Trump's approval rating is some of the lowest in recorded history.

最近几周，随着美国因明尼苏达州两名反对ICE抗议者被杀事件而震动，他的支持率更是跌至新低。

And it's fallen to new lows in recent weeks as the nation reels from recent killings of two anti ICE protesters in Minnesota.

但并不是所有人都认为他失败了。

But not everyone thinks he's failing.

本周，我们将听取特朗普支持者的声音。

This week, we're hearing from Trump voters.

这件事发生真是太不幸了。

It is very unfortunate that it happened.

但也很不幸的是，人们把ICE当作杀害了完全无辜之人的元凶，而事实根本不是这样。

But it's also unfortunate that the ICE is being blamed for, like, just murdering somebody who was just so innocent, which isn't the case whatsoever.

第一，他们是被激怒的。

A, they were provoked.

第二，他是被撞死的。

B, he got ran over.

而且，你知道，现在很难分辨什么是真的，什么是假的了。

And, you know, it just it's hard to tell what's real and what's not anymore.

他几乎兑现了自己所有的承诺。

He's delivered on virtually every promise he's made.

目前经济正在蓬勃发展。

The economy is booming right now.

他关闭了边境。

He closed the border.

我们不会再有更多非法移民进来了。

We're not getting any more illegals in.

这件事已经完成了。

That has been done.

这是一个重要的承诺。

That was a major promise.

这件事已经实现了。

That's been done.

今日解读。

Today explained.

在您收听播客的任何平台收听。

Listen wherever you get your podcast.

本节目由Framer赞助。

Support for the show comes from Framer.

网站应该助力您的业务增长，而不是拖慢它。

A website should help your business grow, not slow it down.

如果您更新主页的感觉比应该的更困难，那么您需要试试Framer。

If updates to your homepage feel harder than they should, then you need to check out Framer.

Framer 是一个网站构建工具，能帮助你将你的.com 从一个形式主义转变为推动增长的工具。

Framer is a website builder that helps you transform your.com from a formality into a tool for growth.

它已帮助数千家企业，从初创公司到财富五百强，更快地构建更优质的网站。

And they've helped thousands of businesses from early start ups to Fortune five hundreds build better websites faster.

Framer 是一个企业级无代码网站构建平台，被 Perplexity 和 Miro 等公司的团队用来加速工作进程。

Framer is an enterprise grade no code website builder used by teams at companies including Perplexity and Miro to move faster.

通过实时协作、功能完备的 CMS（包含所有 SEO 所需功能）以及包含集成 A/B 测试的高级分析，你的设计师和市场人员从第一天起就能自主构建并最大化你的.com。

With real time collaboration, a robust CMS with everything you need for great SEO, and advanced analytics that include integrated AP testing, your designers and marketers are empowered to build and maximize your.com from day one.

对 Framer 网站的任何更改，只需一键，几秒钟内即可上线，无需工程团队协助。

Changes to your framer site go live to the web in seconds with one click without help from engineering.

了解如何从 Framer 专家那里获得更多收益，或立即免费注册开始使用，访问 framer.com/markets，享受 Framer Pro 年度计划 30% 的折扣。

Learn how you can get more out of your.com from a Framer specialist or get started billing for free today at framer.com/markets for 30% off of Framer pro annual plan.

访问 framer.com/markets，享受 30% 的折扣。

That's framer.com/markets for 30% off.

访问 framer.com/markets。

Framer.com/markets.

规则和限制可能适用。

Rules and restrictions may apply.

我们中的许多人过去一周花了大量时间观看明尼阿波利斯街头事件的视频，试图理解我们所看到的内容，分辨什么是真实的、什么是虚假的，哪些是AI生成的，以及这些视频的来源是谁——在当今时代，判断信息来源变得前所未有的困难。

A lot of us have spent a lot of the last week watching videos of what's happening on the streets of Minneapolis and understanding what it is that we're seeing, but also what's real and what isn't and what's AI and who is taking these videos and how we're supposed to understand the source feels harder than ever.

因此，本周在《The Vergecast》节目中，我们将讨论明尼阿波利斯正在发生的事、在人工智能时代信息如何传播，以及如何理解这一切的意义。

So this week on the Vergecast, we're talking about what's happening in Minneapolis, how information moves in an AI age, and what it means to make sense of it all.

此外，我们还会聊到TikTok的新动态、为什么一切在TikTok上都感觉分崩离析，更多内容请在您收听播客的平台收听《The Vergecast》。

All that plus what's new with the new TikTok, why everything feels like it's falling apart on TikTok, and more on the vergecast wherever you get podcasts.

我们回到Profty Markets。

We're back with Profty Markets.

迪士尼的财报超出营收和利润预期，其体验部门也创下历史新高，流媒体业务同样表现强劲，利润增长超过70%，但股价仍下跌了多达7%。

Disney's earnings beat both top and bottom line expectations and also reported record revenues in its experiences division, streaming out a great quarter too with profits rising more than 70%, but the stock dropped as much as 7%.

这些结果被国际旅游业下滑、体育转播权成本上升以及迪士尼传统娱乐业务持续疲软所掩盖。

The results were overshadowed by lower international tourism, higher costs for sports rights, and continued weakness in Disney's traditional entertainment division.

财报发布之际，正值董事会本周召开关键会议，以选定鲍勃·艾格的继任者。

The earnings also came ahead of a pivotal board meeting this week to choose Bob Iger's successor.

好的。

Okay.

今天我们邀请到LightShed Partners的合伙人兼TMT分析师里奇·格林菲尔德，帮我们解读这些财报以及这场会议的预期。

Here to help us break down these earnings and what to expect from that meeting, we're speaking with Rich Greenfield, partner and TMT analyst at LightShed Partners.

里奇，欢迎你再次做客我们的节目。

Rich, great to have you back on the show.

谢谢，埃德。

Thanks, Ed.

这真是一个非常重要的星期。

It's a it's a pretty momentous week.

我的意思是，所有迹象都表明，我们等待了许久的事情终于要揭晓了——谁将接替鲍勃·艾格。

I mean, you know, I think all signs point to what we've been waiting a very, very long time for, which is who's gonna succeed Bob Iger.

几年前我们以为已经知道了答案，那就是鲍勃·查佩克，但显然那并没有持续多久。

And, again, we thought we all knew that a few years ago with Bob Chapek, but that obviously didn't last very long.

所以这次，大家都觉得鲍勃是认真的，他真的要离开了。

And so I think everyone sort of believes this time Bob really means that he actually is leaving.

所以，大家的目光都聚焦在这场继任故事上。

And so, you know, all eyes are on this succession story.

这能解释股价的走势吗？

Does that explain what happened with the share price?

我的意思是，尽管财报表现相当不错，但股价却下跌了7%。

I mean, the stock's down 7% after a pretty great earnings call.

我的意思是，总体来看，财报还是不错的。

I mean, overall, it's pretty good.

那现在股价的波动该如何解释呢？

What what explains the the movement in the stock right now?

我认为财报引发的担忧在于3月，也就是他们的财年第二季度，因为迪士尼的财年是从9月开始的，而这个季度的表现并不理想。

I think the fear on earnings is that the March, their fiscal q two, because Disney's a fiscal September company, and so their fiscal q two is not great.

嗯，面临很多不利因素。

Know, there's a lot of, a a number of headwinds.

你知道，主题公园的客流量看起来将持平或下降。

You know, the theme park attendance looks like it's gonna be flat to down.

他们暗示了前往美国的国际旅行疲软，并且将今年预期的大部分收益增长寄托在财年的后半段。

They're signaling weakness in international travel to The US, and they're really putting the majority of the earnings growth they're expecting this year on the back half of the fiscal year.

我认为，当你对投资者说，当前的前景并不乐观，但我们会后来好转时，

And I think, you know, the minute you say to investors, the current outlook is not so good, but we'll pick it up or it'll improve later.

嗯。

Mhmm.

你知道，人们通常会认为，这是一种强烈的信号，表明他们担心业绩会不及预期。

You know, people generally you know, that that is generally a good signal to, I'm scared they're gonna miss numbers.

是的。

Yep.

对吧？

Right?

再补充一点，埃德。

And then add on to it, Ed.

这件事的另一部分不仅仅是鲍勃·艾格离职，而且，根据媒体报道——当然，我们录制时这尚未得到证实——传言称艾格也将在他的合同年底12月31日之前离开。

The other piece of this is not just is Bob Iger leaving, but, again, according to press reports, and, you know, this is unverified at the moment that we're recording, but the story goes is that Iger's also gonna leave before his December 31 contract year end.

对，没错。

So Right.

想象一下你是投资者。

Just imagine you're an investor.

你听到盈利主要集中在下半年，而且鲍勃离开的时间比你预期的要早。

You're hearing earnings are very back half weighted, and Bob's leaving sooner than you expected.

对吧？

Right?

还有主题公园，这是人们投资迪士尼的首要原因。

Like, you know, and theme parks, which is the number one reason people own Disney.

没错，ESPN和迪士尼+也很重要，但如果你看看如今人们因为迪士尼的业务规模而对其感到兴奋的点，其实主要还是它的主题公园和游轮业务。

Like, sure, ESPN and Disney Plus, but if you look at, like, what people get excited about to own Disney now given the size of the business, it's really about its theme park and cruises.

所以，迪士尼称之为体验部门，是的。

So their their experiences segment, as Disney calls it Yeah.

这项业务在客流量方面面临一些逆风，这让人们感到不安。

That business facing sort of, you know, headwinds from an attendance standpoint spooks people.

而且你看。

And and look.

情况可能会好转，但这一季度的游客人数只增长了1%，而去年同期却是在应对飓风的影响。

It may get better, but, you know, attendance grew 1% this quarter, but they were comping against hurricanes.

所以从内在来看，游客量基本持平甚至有所下降。

So organically, it was flat to down.

听起来在财年3月的第二季度，美国市场也可能会持平或下滑。

Sounds like it's gonna be flat to down in The US in in fiscal March q two.

那么问题来了，他们能否在财年下半年真正提升这一数据？

And then the question is, can they actually accelerate that in the back half of of the fiscal year?

而我看到，投资者们如今感到担忧。

And I think you're seeing from investors today, they are nervous.

是的。

Yes.

当我们只看这里的继任计划时，有哪些人正在候选之列？

When when we just look at the succession plan here, who's in the running?

接下来会是谁呢？

Who might it be next?

我的意思是，你看。

I mean, look.

我们在今年的前20大预测中已经指出，接任者很可能是现任主题公园部门负责人乔什·达马罗。

We've gone out in our top 20 predictions for the year and said it would be Josh D'Amaro who is currently the head of the theme parks.

你知道，我想回到我刚才说的那番话。

You know, I think go back to what I just said a minute ago.

投资者持有这只股票的原因，我怎么强调都不为过。

The reason investors own this stock like, I can't say this enough times.

他们持有这只股票，就是因为主题公园。

They own it for theme parks.

没错。

So Right.

在这个时候选择一个不是主题公园背景的人，我觉得会很奇怪。

To choose someone who is not the theme park person, I think at this point would be strange.

达娜·沃尔登是一位出色的高管。

Dana Walden is a great executive.

她拥有非凡的职业生涯。

She's had an incredible career.

她在迪士尼收购福克斯时从福克斯加入。

She came from Fox when Disney bought Fox.

她过来了。

She came over.

就她职业生涯中在内容创作方面所取得的成就而言，她的履历非常出色。

She has an incredible resume in terms of what she's been able to achieve creating content over her career.

但再说一次，如果你想想迪士尼的核心是什么，它其实并不主要是电视，而电视正是达娜的强项，根本就不是电视业务。

But, again, if you think about what Disney is all about, it's not really about television, which is Dana's forte, and it's really not about the TV business at all.

再说一遍，我认为迪士尼现在实际上可以归结为两件事。

Again, it's really you know, I really think about Disney as really two things right now.

一方面是电影方面的创意引擎，它推动着主题公园、消费品和Disney+的发展，但归根结底，这一切都依赖于高关注度的电影内容和主题公园。

It's the creative engine on the film side that is driving theme parks and consumer products, Disney plus, but it really, you know, comes down to so much of this is the, you know, the high profile movie content and the theme parks.

我认为这根本不是她的重点。

And I think that's just not her focus.

所以如果迪士尼朝这个方向发展，我会感到惊讶。

And so I'd be surprised if Disney went in that direction.

我的意思是，你看。

I mean, look.

总会出现一个变数，要么是双CEO

There is always a wild card that either it's a dual CEO

是的。

Uh-huh.

要么就是来自外部的人选。

And or that it is somebody from the outside.

但again，每一个数据点似乎都指向Josh。

But, again, every single data point seems to move point towards it being Josh.

然后我认为，对于你的观众和听众来说，真正重要的问题是：这是否意味着迪士尼在转型？

And then I think the really big question for your viewers and listeners is is this an indication of Disney pivoting?

比如，会进行战略转型吗？

Like, will there be a strategic pivot?

他们只是保留今天所有的资产吗？

Are they just keeping all of the assets they have today?

再说一次，乔什来自主题公园部门。

Again, Josh comes from the theme park segment.

他不是搞电视的。

He's not a TV guy.

他也不是ESPN体育业务的人。

He's not an ESPN sports guy.

他们会重新调整公司结构吗？

Do they reconfigure the company?

我们的猜测是，他会引导投资者相信，结构性变革——就像华纳兄弟正在做的那样，比如拆分、把一部分卖给Netflix，以及将线性电视资产分拆出去——正在进程中。

And our bet is is that he's going to lead investors to believe that structural change, meaning separating the companies the way Warner Brothers has been you know, is is in process of separating, selling a piece to Netflix, and spinning off their linear TV assets.

康卡斯特刚刚对Versant就是这样做的。

That's obviously what Comcast just did with Versant.

我们认为，迪士尼在未来几年内简化其公司结构是有很大合理性的。

We think there's, we think there's a lot of logic to Disney simplifying its corporate structure over the course of the next couple of years.

在鲍勃·艾格领导下，这种情况不会发生。

It wasn't gonna happen under Bob Iger.

但在乔什的领导下，2027年完全有可能实现。

It could certainly happen in '27 under Josh.

这种公司重组是否会将主题公园和体验业务单独划分为一个部门？

And would that corporate restructuring involve moving the theme parks and experiences business to its own unit?

这对迪士尼来说会是主要方向吗？

Is that gonna be sort of the for Disney?

不会。

No.

我认为你会把主题公园、影视工作室和迪士尼+都保留在同一个部门里。

I think you would keep theme parks and studio and Disney plus all in one unit.

所以你会把电影内容制作和电视内容制作都放在一块，是的。

So you'd have the production of movie content, the production of TV content Yep.

关于迪士尼+的发行渠道。

The distribution on, you know, Disney Plus.

你会保留Hulu业务，但会把ESPN、ABC以及所有这些电视频道剥离出来，组成一个独立的实体。

You would have, you know, the Hulu business, but then you would take ESPN and ABC and all of those TV stations and ship it off into a separate entity.

所以主题公园、影视制作和流媒体服务都保留在同一个部门。

And so theme park, studio, and streaming all stay in one unit.

而你所谓的，埃德，线性电视，我知道当我们谈论在线流媒体剧集时，这个词现在听起来有点过时了。

And, essentially, what you would call, Ed, linear TV, which I know when we're talking about of, you know, a show that streams online, you know, seems a little bit outdated at this point in time.

你会把那些非常盈利的……

You would take the, you know, the the the very profitable.

记住，这些业务是迪士尼的巨大利润引擎。

Remember, the these are huge profit engines for Disney.

我的意思是，我不愿轻视ESPN和ABC是极其盈利的业务这一事实。

I mean, I don't wanna make light of the fact that ESPN and ABC are incredibly profitable businesses.

是的。

Yeah.

但它们不像其他资产那样具有增长潜力。

But they're just not growth businesses in the way that the other assets are.

因此，我认为应该用不同的方式来资本化它们。

And so I think you would capitalize them differently.

也许在未来几年里，它们会寻求自己的并购机会。

Maybe they would look for their own m and a over the next few years.

我的意思是，我们仍然认为，如果迪士尼剥离了电视业务，

I mean, we continue to believe that Disney if you got rid of TV Yeah.

并剥离了体育业务，你能否更专注于电子游戏和互动娱乐？

And got rid of sports, could you lean into video gaming, interactive entertainment?

想想Epic Games，他们已经建立了合资企业，或者想想Roblox。

You know, think about the Epic Games where they already have a joint venture with or think about Roblox.

换句话说，如果你想想你的观众、听众以及他们的孩子在做什么，2026年的情况与观看传统线性电视截然不同。

Like, if you think about what your, you know, viewers and listeners and what their kids are doing, it it looks very different than watching linear TV in 2026.

因此，我认为新任迪士尼CEO有充分的理由重新思考未来十年公司的业务形态。

And so I think there's a lot of rationale for why a new Disney CEO would really rethink what the business should look like for the next decade.

百分之百。

100%.

我们还没听过你对华纳兄弟、奈飞和派拉蒙之间局势的看法，你上次参加我们的节目已经有一段时间了。

One that we haven't gotten your views on, it's been a while since we had you on the program, is this situation between Warner Brothers and and Netflix and Paramount.

那里发生了什么？

What's going on there?

我们能听听你最新的观点吗？

Just can we get your your updated perspective?

我知道你要去华盛顿参加听证会。

I know that you're going down to DC for the hearing.

你对华纳兄弟的状况以及这件事最终会如何发展有什么看法？

What are your views on on on the Warner Brothers situation and how this is all gonna shake out?

我的意思是，你看。

I mean, look.

奈飞目前是胜出的竞标方。

Netflix is currently the winning bidder.

是的

Yep.

已被华纳兄弟选中。

Been selected by Warner Brothers.

派拉蒙不喜欢这个结果。

Paramount doesn't like it.

派拉蒙正试图发起一场敌意代理权争夺战，以争取华纳兄弟的股东支持。

Paramount is trying to run a hostile proxy battle to try to win over Warner Brothers shareholders.

我认为目前的挑战在于，派拉蒙的做法本质上是：嘿。

I think the challenge right now is, you know, the approach that Paramount is taking is essentially, hey.

我们不需要再提高报价了。

We don't need to raise our bid anymore.

我们就等着看吧。

We will just wait this out.

我们认为会获得重要的监管批准，而且我们认为这将促使华纳兄弟股东施压管理层，重新考虑我们的报价。

We think we're gonna get meaningful regulatory approval, and we think that that will push Warner Brothers shareholders to pressure management to take and reconsider our bid.

嗯嗯。

Mhmm.

我觉得这不太可能。

I think that's unlikely.

我的意思是，考虑到奈飞的出价是每股27.75美元现金，而即将分拆的Stub资产，其价值很可能超过派拉蒙公开谈论的数额。

I mean, just given where the Netflix bid is at $27.75 in cash, the Stub, which is gonna be spun off, probably has more value than what Paramount has talked about publicly.

因此，我认为对于股东来说，除非派拉蒙愿意显著提高报价，否则它将陷入困境。

And so I think for shareholders, I think unless Paramount is willing to meaningfully raise its bid, it's in a tough spot.

老实说，埃德，你在审视媒体业务时，尤其是大量电视资产——传统媒体、线性电视，在需要进行重大投资周期时背负高杠杆，这很成问题。

And I'll be honest, Ed, you know, leverage in in looking at the media business, especially a lot of TV assets, you know, legacy media, linear TV, being levered when you need to go through a dramatic investment cycle.

比如，我两周前在拉斯维加斯去了UFC现场。

Like, if you look at Paramount, I was out at UFC two weeks ago out in Vegas.

他们必须投入大量资金，他们刚刚花了11亿美元收购UFC。

Like, they need to go through they just spent a billion 1 on on UFC.

这才是派拉蒙应该做的那种大胆投资。

Those are the types of big bold investments Paramount should be making.