为何市场无法为AI定价

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You've got your core holdings, some high conviction picks, maybe even a few strategic options at play.

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Go to public.com/profg and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio.

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冬季的寒冷天气让你感到疲惫、孤僻、情绪低落吗？

Does the winter weather have you feeling tired, antisocial, sad?

你可以向我们的挪威朋友学习一下。

You may wanna take a cue from our friends in Norway.

他们往往会关注这个季节中自己喜爱的方面，而不是仅仅把它看作一段需要熬过去的时光。

Really, they tend to orient towards the things that they like about the season instead of just sort of seeing it as a time of year to endure.

如何拥抱冬天。

How to embrace the winter.

更多精彩内容，请关注下一期《给我解释一下》。

That's on the next Explain It To Me.

每周日更新，各大播客平台均可收听。

New episodes every Sunday wherever you get your podcasts.

今天的数字是1.35亿。

Today's number, 135,000,000.

有1.35亿人观看了巴德·邦尼的超级碗中场表演。

That's how many people watched Bad Bunny's Super Bowl halftime show.

总统对这场表演并不满意。

The president was not happy with the performance.

他说，这些舞蹈是‘令人反感的’，尤其对年幼的孩子来说。

He said the dancing was, quote, disgusting, especially for young children.

这与他之前对什么对儿童有害的看法形成了鲜明对比。

That is a sharp reversal from his previous views on what's disgusting for young children.

我得说，货币市场疯了。

I'll Money market's mad.

如果钱是邪恶的，那么那栋楼就是地狱。

If money is evil, then that building is hell.

演出还得继续。

Show goes on.

诺亚想要这场演出，价格不菲。

The price of Noah wants the show.

欢迎来到Profty Markets。

So Welcome to Profty Markets.

我是埃德·埃尔森。

I'm Ed Elson.

今天是2月10日。

It is February 10.

让我们回顾一下昨天的市场关键数据。

Let's check-in on yesterday's market vitals.

标普500指数和纳斯达克指数上涨，而道琼斯指数创下连续第二个纪录收盘高点。

The S and P five hundred and Nasdaq climbed as the Dow hit its second consecutive record close.

与此同时，美元走弱。

Meanwhile, the dollar fell.

黄金价格回升至5000美元以上，而比特币在上周下跌后基本持平。

Gold climbed back above $5,000, and Bitcoin was roughly flat after its drawdown last week.

稍后我们会详细讨论这一点。

More on that in a moment.

好的。

Okay.

还有哪些动态？

What else is happening?

科技板块这周经历了一段艰难时期。

It's been a harrowing week for the tech sector.

亚马逊在过去五天内下跌了15%，原因是其2026年资本支出预期大幅上调近60%，令投资者感到不安。

Amazon is down 15% over the past five days after spooking investors with a nearly 60% jump in its 2026 CapEx outlook.

这一公告正值科技股遭遇猛烈抛售之际，Anthropic推出的新工具引发了人们对人工智能可能摧毁软件行业的担忧。

The announcement came amid a brutal tech sell off as new tools from Anthropic ignited fears that AI could kill the software industry.

总体而言，此次抛售抹去了超过1万亿美元的科技股市值。

All told, sell off wiped out over $1,000,000,000,000 in market value of tech stocks.

然而，周五市场出现反弹，一些交易员趁低买入。

However, markets rallied on Friday as some traders bought the dip.

昨天，股市继续上涨，因为谷歌通过发行债券筹集了200亿美元，用于资助其人工智能支出。

Stocks continued their rally yesterday as Google raised $20,000,000,000 in a bond offering to fund its AI spending.

然而，亚马逊的亏损进一步加深。

Still, Amazon fell deeper into the red.

好的。

Okay.

今天我们邀请到播客常客、《金融时报》美国财经评论员、《Unhedged》通讯作者兼《Unhedged》播客联合主持人罗伯特·阿姆斯特朗，来和我们聊聊亚马逊以及整个科技市场的情况。

Here to discuss what's happening with Amazon and the tech markets at large, we're speaking with pod favorite Robert Armstrong, US financial commentator for the Financial Times, author of the Unhedged newsletter and cohost of the Unhedged podcast.

罗布，欢迎再次做客《预言市场》。

Rob, welcome back to Prophecy Markets.

很高兴能来这里。

Great to be here.

我们直接切入正题。

Let's get right to it.

是的。

Yeah.

我们先从亚马逊说起。

We'll start with Amazon.

亚马逊公布了财报。

Amazon reported earnings.

他们的收入和利润基本达到了预期。

They basically met revenue expectations, basically met on earnings.

但略微低于预期。

It was a little bit of a miss.

是的。

Yes.

但重大消息是，他们决定将2026年的资本支出提高到2000亿美元，比去年增长超过50%，比华尔街预期多出500亿美元，如今亚马逊几乎陷入自由落体状态。

But the big news was they decided to increase their CapEx to $200,000,000,000 in 2026, up more than 50% from last year, $50,000,000,000 more than Wall Street expected, and now Amazon is essentially in free fall.

我们先谈谈你对亚马逊发生的情况以及市场反应的看法。

Let's just start with your reactions to what happened to Amazon and the market's reaction.

让我们先说清楚。

Well, let's just be clear.

这些公司现在所谈论的资金数额——亚马逊、谷歌、微软、Meta——简直难以置信。

The amounts of money these companies are now talking about, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta, are unbelievable.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，现在讨论的数字，比如这些公司的支出占GDP的比重，已经超过了当年跨大陆铁路建设的投入。

I mean, there's numbers being thrown around like, you know, the amounts the amount of spending as a percentage of GDP somebody was taking today is more than was spent on the transcontinental railroads.

你知道的？

You know?

我不清楚吉萨大金字塔占当时GDP的百分比是多少，但这些投入简直是天文数字。

It's like I mean, I don't know what percentage of GDP the Great Pyramid Of Giza was, but, like, this is these this is, like, titanic amounts of money.

我认为，过去几个月里我们感受到的焦虑在于，这些巨额资金——数千亿美元的投入——到底能带来多少回报？要产生足以与亚马逊、Meta、谷歌或微软传统业务相媲美的利润，所需的收入规模简直令人震惊。

And I think the the anxiety we've seen building for a number of months here, what is the ROI on these sums, hundreds of billions of dollars, the amount of revenue you're gonna have to generate to make that a project comparable in profitability to the historical business of an Amazon or a Meta or a Google or a Microsoft are just staggering.

是的。

Yeah.

那么，在AI时代，这些公司是否正变得结构性地盈利能力下降？

And so, like, are these companies becoming structurally less profitable in the a r AI era?

也许吧。

Maybe.

我认为这就是你知道的，亚马逊的股价比几天前下跌了15%。

And I think that's what you you know, Amazon is down is, you know, 15% lower than it was a few days ago.

我认为这就是市场所想的。

I think that is what the market is thinking.

是的。

Yeah.

你知道，这些公司可能在下一代迭代中会成为优秀的AI公司，但AI业务可能不如它们过去的业务那么赚钱。

You know, these these may not be as you know, they may be great AI companies in their next iteration, but AI might not be as good a business as their old business was.

而且根本无法回头。

And there's no way of going back.

你也不能只是袖手旁观。

You can't just sit by the sideline either.

谈谈为什么市场会做出这样的判断？

Talk a bit about why has the market decided that?

因为我喜欢亚马逊这里发生的变化。

Because I I like what's happened with Amazon here.

我也会关注谷歌的反应。

I also look at what the reaction to Google Yes.

谷歌宣布要将支出翻倍，股价虽然略有下跌，但并未大幅下跌，随后又反弹了。

Where Google announced that they were gonna double their spending, and then the shares fell a little bit, but not really, and then again rebounded.

这反应非常奇怪。

It was a very reaction.

甚至奇怪的是，Meta的股价上涨了。

And even weirdly, Metas went up.

Meta的股价上涨了。

Metas went up.

没错。

Exactly.

所以不同的公司反应各不相同。

And and and so there are different reactions.

我的意思是，我们——至少我在努力理解，这几乎是不可能的任务——市场到底在想什么？

I mean, it it feels like we're trying to or at least I'm trying to understand, which is an impossible task, what is the market really thinking?

嗯嗯。

Mhmm.

但这里发生了许多矛盾。

But there there are a lot of contradictions happening here.

正如你所说，Meta公布了这项庞大的支出计划。

As you say, Meta announces this gigantic spending plan.

股价上涨了。

Shares go up.

亚马逊也做了类似的事情。

Amazon does the sim similar thing.

他们基本上都在做同样的事。

They basically all do the same thing.

亚马逊的股价却下跌了。

Amazon shares go down.

与此同时，AI领域还发生着另一件事：Anthropic推出了这些令人惊叹的工具，随后所有人都认为这才是未来。

Meanwhile, there's this story happening in AI, which is anthropic, comes out with these incredible tools, and then everyone decides that's the future.

是的。

Yeah.

不会是像Salesforce、ServiceNow这样的传统软件公司，而这似乎又有点矛盾，因为这让人疑惑：AI真的会带来巨大的变革吗？

It's not gonna be the legacy software companies like Salesforce and serve ServiceNow and the rest of them, which again seems to be a little bit of a contradiction because it's like, is AI going to be massively transformative?

那么，好吧，也许这种支出是好事，或者也许它并不会带来变革。

Then, okay, maybe the spending is a good thing, or maybe it isn't gonna be transformative.

如果是这种情况，那这种支出就是浪费钱。

And in which case, the spending is a waste of money.

市场在这里处于什么位置？

Where does the market stand here?

好吧。

Okay.

我想起了一句引语，是小说家兼编剧威廉·戈尔丁关于好莱坞说过的。

I think this is a quote jumps to mind, which is what William Golding, was a novelist and screenwriter, said about Hollywood.

你可能知道这一句。

You probably know this one.

他说：没人知道任何事。

He said, nobody knows anything.

他意思是，你无法预知自己拍出的电影会怎样，只有当观众坐在影院里，喜欢或不喜欢，并告诉朋友、开始买票时，你才知道这部电影是好是坏。

And what he meant by that was that you don't know you make movies, and you don't know if you've made a good movie or not until an audience sits in front of it and likes it or doesn't like it and tells their friends and people start buying the tickets.

在观众面前之前，一切都只是碰运气。

It's just a crapshoot until you're in front of the audience.

你根本不知道。

You don't know.

这里也有点这种味道。

And that there's a flavor of that here.

我们知道这是一种强大的技术，但不知道未来的商业模式会是什么样子。

We know this is a powerful technology, but we don't know what the business structure we is gonna look like.

我们不知道优秀AI企业的竞争护城河会有多深。

We don't know how deep the competitive moats around good AI businesses are.

当然，竞争护城河的深度决定了你的回报规模。

And, of course, competitive moats are what determines the size of your returns.

是的。

Yeah.

我们不知道这种技术会变得多么商品化。

We don't know how commoditized this is going to be.

因此，市场似乎在四处摸索，试图找到一个可以依赖的叙事框架，因为我们目前根本无从知晓。

And so it feels like the market is kind of flapping around looking for some kind of narrative it can cling to because we just can't know at this point.

你明白我的意思吗？

Do you know what I mean?

比如软件公司，商业软件公司就是一个完美的例子。

So like software companies, this route in business software companies was a perfect example.

那些商业软件公司不会被人工智能摧毁。

All those business software companies are not going to get crushed by AI.

一些公司会将其整合进来。

Some will incorporate it.

一些公司会被淘汰。

Some will get crushed.

有些会采用。

Some will adopt.

运营一家商业软件公司远不止写代码那么简单。

There's a lot more to running a business software company than just writing code.

对。

Right.

还有渠道、客户关系以及所有这些事情。

There's distribution and customer relationships and all of this stuff.

那么，我们知道谁会被碾压，谁会采用吗？

So do we know who's gonna be steamrolled and who's gonna adopt?

不知道。

No.

是的。

Yes.

我们只是在猜测，市场充满波动，一个叙事主导一天，接着又换成另一个叙事。

And we're just it's guesses and it's volatility and it's one narrative takes control for one day and then the next narrative.

所以我认为，这些矛盾是不会消失的。

So I I think, you know, the contradictions are not gonna go away.

从长远来看，市场会对此进行定价，但目前它真的很难做到这一点。

Over the long run, markets will price this, but it's really struggling to do it right now.

百分之百。

100%.

我只想补充一点。

I would just add.

我的意思是，这完全正确。

I mean, I think that's exactly right.

没人真正知道发生了什么，这就是为什么我们看到了如此大的波动。

No one really knows what's going on, hence why we're seeing all of this volatility.

在这些时刻，作为投资者，你所能做的最好的事情就是回到原点，回归基本面。

And in those moments, it does seem that the best thing you you could do as an investor is just go back to square one and go back to fundamentals.

是的。

Yeah.

回到估值的基本面。

Go back to the fundamentals of valuation.

而且，你看一下亚马逊现在的市盈率，它正在交易。

And, you know, I'm just looking at the the multiple on Amazon right now, trading it.

今天早些时候它的市盈率是29倍。

It it was 29 times earnings earlier in the day.

我们刚刚回升到30倍市盈率左右。

We've we've bounced back up a little bit to 30 times earnings.

但让我们把它和沃尔玛比较一下。

But let's compare that to Walmart.

沃尔玛的市盈率是47倍。

Walmart is trading at 47 times earnings.

再来看看好市多。

Let's compare this to Costco.

好市多的市盈率是54倍。

Costco is trading at 54 times earnings.

是的。

Yes.

亚马逊作为零售的未来，与沃尔玛这个过去之间的差异简直难以置信。

Unbelievable disparity here between Amazon, the future of retail, and then Walmart, the past.

过去的零售。

Past retail.

但你知道，首先，沃尔玛和好市多都是管理得极其出色的公司。

But, you know and and first of all, warm Walmart, we should just say, and Costco are brilliantly managed companies.

对。

Yep.

说它们只是无聊的老式杂货店，其实完全忽略了它们的本质。

Like, it's to say those are boring old grocers really misses it.

你知道，我认为沃尔玛的管理层在拥抱线上业务和做出接受更低利润率以换取更高收入等艰难决策方面非常有魄力。

You know, I think Walmart Walmart's management has been courageous about kind of grasping the online nettle and making hard decisions about accepting lower margins in return for, you know, higher revenues and all this stuff.

嗯哼。

But Mhmm.

关键是，你对沃尔玛的未来了解得比对亚马逊的未来更多。

The point is you just know more about Walmart's future than you do know about Amazon's future.

对。

Right.

对吧？

Right?

预测起来更容易，这就是为什么它们的估值差异就在这里。

It is it is easier to predict, and that's why that's the difference in multiple right there.

这是一种不确定性。

It's it's an uncertainty.

沃尔玛和好市多享有确定性溢价，而亚马逊则享有不确定性溢价。

It's a certainty premium for the Walmarts and the Costcos and an uncertainty premium for the Amazons.

你知道，看看这些核心股票，甚至这些就是世界上最好的两家核心公司。

And, you know, look, all of these staple stocks, even the those are the two best staples companies in the world.

但像坎贝尔汤品这类糟糕的核心股票，其实表现也不错，而它们根本没有任何增长。

But, like, all these every like, the crappy staple stocks like Campbell's Soup, those are doing well too, and those aren't growing at all.

是的

Yeah.

就像这些老式的消费品公司，你知道，它们没法提价，也完全不增长，但今年股价却在上涨，因为至少你知道它们还会存在。

Like, there's all these kind of old school consumer goods companies that, you know, they can't get any price and they're not growing at all, but they're rallying this year because at least you know they'll be around.

对。

Right.

你明白我的意思吗？

You know what I mean?

你知道，人们还是会继续用垃圾袋。

You know, people are still gonna use trash bags.

没错。

Exactly.

看起来，投资者现在愿意为确定性支付如此巨额的资金，这确实令人震惊。

It seems that that is I mean, it's astounding the the amount of money investors are willing to pay right now for certainty Yeah.

为某种形式的安全感和保障。

For some semblance of security and safety.

没错。

Correct.

有趣的是，投资者竟然认为这类资产是安全的。

It's interesting that this is the kind of stuff that investors have decided is safe.

我们也可以对黄金这么说。

We could say the same thing about gold.

是的。

Yep.

不知为何，我们今年觉得投资黄金比投资亚马逊更安全。

For whatever reason, we've decided that gold this year is a safer thing to invest in than Amazon.

你曾在你的无对冲通讯中写道，这不仅仅是科技股的抛售。

You you wrote in your your unhedged newsletter, you said this isn't just a tech sell off.

你提到：'市场正在经历一场结构性转变。'

You said, quote, the market is undergoing a structural shift.

这是否就是你所指的？

Is this kind of what you were talking about?

是的。

Yeah.

正是如此。

It is exactly.

曾经有一段时间，也就是说，一年前甚至六个月前的主流说法是，科技股几乎代表了一切。

So there was a time I mean, the narrative of a year ago, even six months ago, was tech is kind of everything.

是的。

Yeah.

遵循这一叙事，投资者取得了极佳的回报。

And going with that narrative has worked brilliantly for investors.

但突然间，人们开始对诸如必需消费品、能源、工业等领域感兴趣了。

But all of a sudden, people are interested in things like not just consumer staples, but energy, industrials.

嗯。

Mhmm.

你知道的？

You know?

这些企业相对稳健、持续运营，之前被忽视了，现在它们虽然不算特别便宜，但比一些成长型股票便宜，而且提供了更高的确定性。

Kind of solid, steady businesses that have been neglected and now are you know, they're not none of them are very cheap, but they're cheaper than some of the growth stocks have been, and they offer you more certainty.

我认为，国际股票因为同样的原因依然具有吸引力。

I think, you know, international stocks continue to appeal for the same reason.

你买一个欧洲或英国的指数，实际上就是在投资银行、工业企业和矿业公司，也就是一些基础行业。

You know, you buy a European or a UK index, you know, you're getting banks, industrials, miners, you know, basic stuff.

我觉得你说得完全对。

I think you're exactly right.

目前，可预测性和确定性获得了巨大的溢价，这是这种范式转变的重要组成部分。

There's a tremendous premium for predictability and certainty right now, and that's a big part of this regime change.

好的。

All right.

罗布·阿姆斯特朗，《金融时报》美国金融评论员。

Rob Armstrong, US financial commentator for the Financial Times.

罗布，非常感谢你。

Rob, really appreciate it.

谢谢您

Thank you as

总是如此。

always.

随时欢迎。

Anytime.

广告后，比特币下跌。

After the break, Bitcoin takes a fall.

如需获取更多市场洞察，您可以订阅我的每周通讯，只需访问 edward elson dot substack dot com。

And for even more markets insights, you can subscribe to my weekly newsletter, simply put, at edward elson dot substack dot com.

本节目由Indeed赞助。

Support for the show comes from Indeed.

现在， somewhere 有一位有才华的人，能够帮助您的业务更上一层楼。

Right now, there is a talented person somewhere out there who could help take your business to the next level.

但找到这样的人并不需要苦熬。

But finding that person doesn't need to be a grind.

只需使用 Indeed 精选职位。

Just use Indeed Sponsored Jobs.

它能提升你的职位发布，触达优质候选人，让你更快地与理想人选建立联系，效果显著。

It boosts your job posting to reach quality candidates so you can connect with the people you want faster and it makes a big difference.

根据 Indeed 的数据，直接在 Indeed 上发布的精选职位，比非精选职位高出 90% 的几率获得更佳招聘结果，因为你触达了更广泛的优质候选人池。

According to Indeed data, sponsored jobs posted directly on Indeed are 90% more likely to report a higher than non sponsored jobs because you reach a bigger pool of quality candidates.

加入全球 160 万家使用 Indeed 精选职位的公司，让你有更多时间面试完全符合你要求的候选人。

Join the 1,600,000 companies that sponsor their jobs with Indeed so you can spend more time interviewing candidates who check all your boxes.

减少压力，节省时间，获得更佳成果，现在就使用 Indeed 精选职位。

Less stress, less time, and more results now with Indeed sponsored jobs.

本节目的听众可获得 75 美元的精选职位抵扣额度，帮助你的职位获得应得的优质曝光，前往 indeed.com/professorg 领取。

And listeners of this show will get a $75 sponsored job credit to help get your job the premium status it deserves at indeed.com/professorg.

立即前往 indeed.com/professorg，通过说明你是从本播客了解到 Indeed 来支持我们的节目，indeed.com/profg。

Go to indeed.com/professorg right now and support our show by saying you heard about Indeed on this podcast, indeed.com/profg.

条款和条件适用。

Terms and conditions apply.

招聘。

Hiring.

用Indeed正确地完成。

Do it the right way with Indeed.

大家好。

Hi, everyone.

我是卡拉·斯威舍，本周在我的播客《与卡拉·斯威舍同行》中，我采访了辩护律师阿比·洛威尔。

This is Kara Swisher, and this week on my podcast, on with Kara Swisher, I'm interviewing defense attorney Abby Lowell.

去年，他离开了美国顶尖的律师事务所之一，独立执业，以便为那些受到特朗普政府针对的客户辩护，比如唐·莱蒙、美联储理事丽莎·库克，以及纽约州总检察长莱蒂西亚·詹姆斯。

Last year, he left one of the country's premier law firms and went independent so he could defend clients targeted by the Trump administration, people like Don Lemon, Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook, and New York attorney general Letitia James.

以下是我们的对话片段。

Here's a snippet from our conversation.

这不是偶然的。

It's not random.

这不是临时起意，也不是孤立事件——在他们已经削弱了国会、使法院政治化之后，他们的首次攻击目标就是律师和记者。

It's not ad hoc, and it's not an outlier that their first attack after they had already neutered the congress and they had politicized the courts was to go after the lawyers and to go after the journalists.

完整访谈现已发布，您可以在任何收听播客的平台找到它，当然也在YouTube上。

The full interview is out now, and you can find it anywhere you listen to podcasts and, of course, on YouTube.

别忘了关注《与卡拉·斯威舍尔同行》，获取更多这样的精彩对话。

Be sure to follow on with Kara Swisher for great conversations like this.

本周《财富与放松》节目邀请到了维多利亚·加里克·布朗，她曾是一名一级运动员，如今是身体积极倡导者和企业家，正在揭穿社会强加给我们的关于自我价值的谎言。

This week on Net Worth and Chill, we're joined by Victoria Garrick Brown, former division one athlete turned body positivity advocate and entrepreneur who's dismantling the lies we've been sold about our worth.

从作为一名学生运动员与饮食失调作斗争，到打造一个触达数百万观众的平台，维多利亚的经历堪称将个人痛苦转化为使命与利润的典范。

From battling eating disorders as a student athlete to building a platform that's reached millions, Victoria's journey as a master class in turning personal pain into purpose and profit.

她坦诚分享了追求审美标准所付出的真实经济代价，解释了‘瘦即是美’产业如何设计来让我们持续贫穷和不安，以及她是如何在不背叛价值观的前提下，围绕真实的自我价值建立了一门生意。

She opens up about the real financial cost of chasing beauty standards, why the skinny girl industrial complex is designed to keep us broke and insecure, and how she's built a business around authentic self worth without selling out her values.

我们将深入探讨身体形象的经济逻辑、网红赚钱的游戏规则，以及在一个以你的不安全感牟利的世界里，真正爱自己究竟需要付出什么代价。

We dive deep into the economics of body image, the influencer money game, and what it actually costs to love yourself in a world that profits from your insecurities.

您可以在任何播客平台收听，或在youtube.com/yourrichbff观看视频。

Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch on youtube.com/yourrichbff.

我们继续回到Prophecy Markets。

We're back with Prophecy Markets.

比特币刚刚经历了近三年来最严重的两周暴跌。

Bitcoin just suffered its worst two week collapse in nearly three years.

从10月的峰值算起，比特币已下跌超过50%，周五一度跌至6万美元低点。

It's fallen more than 50% from its October peak, briefly hitting a low of $60,000 on Friday.

尽管本周结束时强劲反弹至7万美元，但总体来看，比特币在过去一年中下跌了30%，抹去了特朗普连任以来的所有涨幅。

It finished the week with a sharp rebound to $70,000, but all told, Bitcoin is down 30% over the past year, erasing all of its gains since Trump's reelection.

为了帮助大家理解比特币当前的状况，我们邀请到了我们的朋友、Fundstrat Capital的首席投资官汤姆·李。

Here to explain what is going on with Bitcoin, we are speaking with our friend Tom Lee, chief investment officer of Fundstrat Capital.

汤姆，感谢你做客《预言市场》。

Tom, thanks for joining us on Prophecy Markets.

很高兴见到你。

Great to see you.

很高兴见到你。

Great to see you.

比特币正经历几年来最大幅度的崩盘之一。

So Bitcoin is seeing one of its largest crashes in a few years.

跌到六万美元，然后又反弹了。

Hit $60,000 then it came back up.

我们先聊聊你对当前局势的总体看法。

Let's just start with your kind of high level thoughts on on what's happening right now.

嗯，比特币实际上从10月10日就开始了回调。

Well, you know, Bitcoin has been in a drawdown, really, since October 10.

我们知道，10月10日发生了价格冲击，引发了有史以来最大规模的去杠杆事件之一。

And we know that on October 10, there was a price shock then that led to one of the largest ever deleveraging events.

因此，整个行业自此陷入困境，因为资产负债表大幅缩水。

And so the industry, has been crippled since because balance sheets have shrunk.

大约三分之一的行业做市商退出了，而加密货币情绪也变得极为负面，因为那次小幅崩盘中至少有两百万个账户被清零。

About a third of the industry's market makers went away, and crypto sentiment, of course, has turned really negative because about at least 2,000,000 accounts got wiped out during that mini crash.

是的。

Mhmm.

因此，行业一直步履蹒跚，而我认为今年早些时候发生的一些事情，触发了另一轮连锁反应——虽然不完全是去杠杆冲击，但本质上看起来像是大规模认输。

And so the industry has been limping along, and I think then a few things happened earlier this year that sort of triggered another cascade of not necessarily deleveraging shock, but essentially what looks like capitulation.

首先是，特朗普总统在一月份发了一条关于格陵兰的推文，这引发了另一轮清算潮，因为那个周末又发生了一次价格冲击。

The first is that president Trump made a a tweet about Greenland in January, and that triggered another cascade of liquidations because you had another price shock that happened over a weekend.

众所周知，流动性好的市场在周末前会优先抛售能卖的东西，而加密货币正是如此。

And as we know, liquid markets will sell what they can over a weekend ahead of a broader market opening, and that was that was crypto.

是的。

Mhmm.

其次，随着市场对地缘政治紧张局势和美元疲软变得极为警惕，再加上我们可能迎来一位看起来相当鹰派的新美联储主席，这进一步放大了影响，促使人们重新思考自己的持仓策略。

The second is that as markets became very leery about geopolitical tension and then, of course, dollar weakness, but then it got magnified that we had a potentially new Fed chair coming in that looked that he could be quite hawkish, I think that led to a real rethink about how people wanna be positioned.

正如你所知，黄金价格突然飙升，而这场黄金上涨对投资者来说代价高昂，因为黄金的网络价值现在已经达到约3万亿美元。

And and as you know, gold suddenly surged, and that gold surge became quite expensive for investors because gold has about a $30,000,000,000,000 network value now.

黄金在两天内飙升了近20%。

Gold surged almost 20% in two days.

这是一次6万亿美元的剧烈波动。

That was a $6,000,000,000,000 swing.

是的。

Mhmm.

整个加密货币市场的规模大约为2万亿美元。

Well, the entire crypto market is about $2,000,000,000,000.

因此，黄金在周末出现了非常剧烈的波动，这可能会再次触发任何做空黄金和白银者的追加保证金要求。

So gold made a very large volatile move over a weekend, which, again, could have triggered another set of margin calls for anyone short, especially gold and silver.

而加密货币，当然，是资金的主要来源。

And then crypto, of course, was really the source of funds.

所以我认为，在很多方面，加密货币至今仍未从10月10日的冲击中恢复过来；随后，我又经历了一些我认为足以引起人们对黄金极大兴趣的宏观冲击，但黄金的持有量实在太大，你必须卖出其他资产才能真正拥有黄金。

So I I think in many ways, crypto still hasn't recovered from October 10, and then we had, I what I consider some macro shocks that got people really interested in gold, but got there's so much gold held that you had to sell something else to actually own your gold.

这难道不会让人质疑比特币的基本价值吗？

Doesn't this call the fundamental value of Bitcoin into question?

因为你刚才描述的那些情况——比如因格陵兰声明引发的地缘政治不确定性、通胀问题，以及对整体不稳定性的对冲需求——

Because a lot of the things you described there, you know, this geopolitical uncertainty because of the Greenland announcement, issues of inflation, you know, a hedge against instability at large.

这些正是比特币本应充当对冲的对象。

These are the kinds of things that Bitcoin is supposed to be the hedge against.

它本应是抵御这些风险的避风港。

It's supposed to be the safe haven against these forces.

所以，这不正是市场在告诉我们，比特币并不是新的黄金，黄金才是真正的黄金吗？

And so isn't this kind of the market telling us actually Bitcoin isn't the new gold, actually gold is the new gold?

这是个很好的问题。

That's a great question.

我的意思是，这确实让人深思，因为。

I mean, that's that has been the existential head scratching because Yeah.

很多加密货币圈的人会说，嘿。

A lot of people in crypto say, hey.

如果出现地缘政治紧张或央行宽松，或者我们讨论美元贬值，比特币不是应该跟黄金联动吗？

Isn't Bitcoin supposed to track gold if you have geopolitical tension or central bank easing, or we we're talking about dollar debasement?

没错。

Right.

但确实有一种情况，黄金表现良好，而加密货币却表现糟糕。

But there there is one scenario where gold will do well, but crypto will do poorly.

好吧？

K?

那就是当整个货币体系本身受到质疑时。

And that's if the entire currency system itself is questioned.

意思是，如果我们到了这样一个地步：我们对混乱如此担忧，以至于根本不在乎美元了。

Meaning, if there is a point where we say, we're so concerned about chaos that I don't care about the dollar.

我甚至不想持有任何以美元计价的资产，尤其是数字美元。

I don't even wanna own anything that's dollar denominated, and especially if it's a digital dollar.

对吧？

Right?

因为比特币是一种数字货币。

Because Bitcoin is digital money.

是的。

Mhmm.

在这种情况下，黄金表现会很好，但股票和加密货币都会下跌。

In that scenario, gold would do well, but stocks and crypto would go down.

所以我认为，在某种程度上，市场已经自己相信了这样一个观点：黄金之所以涨得这么厉害，是因为我们可能正面临一个更加灾难性的局面。

So I think in some ways, the market became convinced itself of the idea that, you know, gold's going up so much because we could be facing a much more calamitous scenario.

我认为这部分原因与战争对市场造成的些许冲击有关。

And I think part of that has to do with wharsh was kind of a a little bit of a shock to markets.

所以这是一种情况，其中加密货币、股票和黄金都会表现不佳。

So that's one scenario where crypto would do badly, stocks do badly, but gold as well.

但另一点需要注意的是，如果你回顾历史，比特币的收益仍然是正的，并且跑赢了通胀，这意味着比特币仍然是一个良好的价值储存手段。

But the other thing to keep in mind is that if you look at rolling through your history, Bitcoin is still positive and outperforming inflation, which means Bitcoin is still actually a good store of value.

如果我们回顾黄金的历史，我认为大约有15%的时间，黄金的三年滚动回报率为负。

If we look back at the history of gold, I think it's about 15% of the time gold's had a negative rolling three year return.

所以在某种程度上，两者都是价值储存手段，但它们会在不同的时期发挥作用。

So in in some ways, both are stores of value, but they're just gonna be working at different times.

你也曾投资以太坊，而它最近也受到了冲击。

You've also been an investor in Ethereum, which has also gotten hit recently.

你目前对以太坊的看法是什么？它与比特币的遭遇有何关联？

What are your views on Ethereum at this point and its relation its relationship with what's happened to Bitcoin?

嗯，以太坊确实受到了加密货币抛售潮的牵连，因为它是第二大加密货币。

Well, yeah, Ethereum has really been caught up in the crypto sell off because it is the second largest crypto.

所以如果有人正试图清算他们的加密货币持仓，而且确实有很多人已经认输，说他们彻底放弃加密货币了。

So if anyone is trying to liquidate their crypto holdings And, you know, there there has been capitulation of people saying, you know, I'm I'm really done with crypto entirely.

是的。

Yeah.

所以他们会卖出他们的比特币和以太坊。

So they're gonna sell their Bitcoin and Ethereum.

我认为我们现在正处于这个阶段。

And I think we're in that phase.

我认为区别在于，以太坊实际上有我们可以观察到的可衡量活动。

The difference, I think, is that Ethereum actually does have measurable activity that we can look at.

我们可以查看新开设的钱包数量、以太坊网络上的交易量，甚至区块链上创建的资产数量，也就是所谓的现实世界资产或总锁仓价值，这些指标实际上都在上升，甚至呈抛物线式增长，因为以太坊正受益于华尔街对代币化的关注。

We can look at wallets opened and created, transactions done on the Ethereum network, or even the amount of assets created on the blockchain, which is called real world assets or total value locked, those have actually all been rising and actually going up parabolically, because Ethereum is benefiting from Wall Street's focus on tokenization.

你知道，代币化是指华尔街希望将其业务的某些部分迁移到公共区块链上，因为这确实能加快产品流程并减少延迟。

You know, tokenization is the idea that Wall Street wants to redo parts of its business on on a public blockchain because it it actually speeds up the product, and it reduces delays.

这就是他们所说的最终性。

It's what they call finality.

因此，以太坊确实从中受益良多。

And so Ethereum has really benefited from that.

举个例子，我们知道仅今年一年，贝莱德就宣布进一步支持构建一个通用区块链。

You know, we know just for instance this year alone, BlackRock has announced its further support of creating a common blockchain.

我们知道纽约证券存管信托公司正在对其资产进行代币化，并与公有链合作实施这一计划。

We know that the NYAC is tokenizing its assets, and they are working with public blockchains to implement that.

我们也知道富达已经在以太坊区块链上推出了自己的投资基金。

And we know Fidelity launched its own investment fund on the Ethereum blockchain.

所以我认为，尽管这可能会让一些原始加密货币爱好者感到不适，但华尔街确实正在大力拥抱以太坊。

So I I think there's a lot of actual, strangely, and maybe this is gonna bother some original crypto people, but Wall Street is really embracing Ethereum.

听起来你对两种最大的加密货币——比特币和以太坊——持有不同看法。

It sounds like your view on on the two largest cryptocurrencies, which is Bitcoin and Ethereum.

你对以太坊更乐观，因为华尔街正在发生代币化浪潮，我们会看到这如何发展。

Ethereum, you're more optimistic because of the fact that there is this tokenization effect happening on Wall Street, and we'll see how that plays out.

你对比特币目前显得不那么看涨，也不那么乐观。

You sound, less bullish, less optimistic about Bitcoin right now.

我的意思是，听起来你至少同意我的观点，即比特币需要被投资界视为某种形式的对冲不确定性的工具。

I mean, I I I it sounds like you agree with me, at least my view of what's happening, that Bitcoin needs to be, seen by the investment world as a a a hedge against uncertainty in some in some capacity.

美元贬值就是一个例子。

The dollar debasement would be an example.

看起来投资界正在缓慢但坚定地做出决定，也许这对我们来说并不是那么明显。

And it seems that the investment world is deciding kind of slowly but surely, actually, maybe maybe that's not what it is to us.

你知道，当情况变得非常糟糕时，我们实际上更倾向于选择黄金。

You know, when things get really difficult, we actually prefer gold instead.

这种描述准确吗？

Is that the correct characterization?

可以说你目前对以太坊更看好的，而对比特币则没那么乐观吗？

Would it be correct to say you're maybe more bullish on Ethereum and you're less bullish at this point on on Bitcoin?

我认为，我所描述的一切确实给比特币带来了叙事上的困境。

I think it is correct to say that everything I've described gives Bitcoin a narrative problem.

是的。

Yeah.

因为人们会说，哦，过去一年里，它并没有成为很好的价值储存手段。

Because people are gonna say, oh, well, in the last year, it hasn't been a great store value.

当地缘政治不确定性上升时，它并没有保护我。

It didn't save me when geopolitical uncertainty rose.

当我们对美联储的新政策感到不确定时，它也没有保护我。

It didn't save me when we got uncertain about this new Fed.

当然，人们心中还存在着一种担忧，即量子风险正在对比特币构成威胁。

And, of course, in the back back of people's minds is this idea of quantum risk are growing for for Bitcoin.

对。

Right.

是的。

Yeah.

所以这确实引发了这个叙事问题。

So it it does raise that narrative question.

但我们现在明确知道的一点是，比特币和以太坊都经历了大幅下跌。

But the one thing that we do know now is that both Bitcoin and Ethereum have had a huge drawdown.

以太坊下跌了60%。

Ethereum's fallen 60%.

这是八年来第八次下跌，所以两者都是高度波动的资产。

That's the eighth time in eight years, so they're both super volatile assets.

嗯哼。

Mhmm.

这有点像当有人说，我想持有七巨头股票的时候。

It's a little bit like when someone says, I wanna own mag seven.

比如说，有人会说，我面临地缘政治不确定性，这次黄金真的管用了。

So let's say someone says, you know, I have geopolitical uncertainty, and this time gold really worked.

你知道，有时候当有人想买入七巨头股票并投资人工智能时，七家公司中只有三家表现良好。

And, you know, there's times when when someone's buying MAG 7 and they wanna buy AI, only three of the seven names are working.

我认为我们只是需要意识到，2026年的情况尚未展开。

I do think we just have to be mindful that 2026 hasn't played out yet.

所以，如果比特币真的反弹，它将重新确立其叙事。

So if Bitcoin indeed stages a recovery, then it's gonna recover its narrative.

是的。

Yes.

但同样地，我们认为以太坊正在延续过去的下跌趋势，因此我们认为它将强劲反弹。

But similarly, we think Ethereum is is really tracking past declines, so we think it's gonna recover strongly.

但你说得完全对。

But you're you're absolutely right.

你知道，这场较量中，黄金赢了一次。

You know, this battle, gold has won one.

比特币在2026年尚未亏损过。

Bitcoin's lost zero in 2026.

好的。

Okay.

汤姆·李，富达策略资本的首席投资官。

Tom Lee, chief investment officer of Fundstrat Capital.

汤姆，感谢你的时间。

Tom, appreciate your time.