为何如此乐观？市场寄望于伊朗

本节目由以下赞助支持：经营企业已经够难了，为什么还要用十几个互不相通的应用程序让事情变得更复杂呢？

Support for this show comes from Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other?

隆重推出Odoo。

Introducing Odoo.

这是您一生中唯一需要的商业软件。

It's the only business software you'll ever need.

它是一个一体化、完全集成的平台，能让您的工作更轻松。

It's an all in one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier.

客户关系管理、会计、库存、电子商务等等。

CRM, accounting, inventory, ecommerce, and more.

最棒的是什么？

And the best part?

Odoo以远低于传统方案的成本，取代了多个昂贵的平台。

Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost.

因此，成千上万家企业已经选择了切换到Odoo。

That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch.

那你为什么不呢？

So why not you?

前往 odoo.com 免费试用 Odoo。

Try Odoo for free at odoo.com.

那就是 odoo.com。

That's odoo.com.

本节目由维珍大西洋航空赞助。

Support for this show comes from Virgin Atlantic.

很多人对飞行感到恐惧。

A lot of people dread flying.

我坐过一些糟糕的航班，也坐过真正糟糕透顶的航班。

I've been on some bad flights, and I've been on some truly miserable flights.

但当一家航空公司真正为你着想，机组人员把你当作贵宾对待时，情况就完全不同了。

But it's a whole different story when an airline shows up for you and the crew treats you like a VIP.

从你登机的那一刻起，维珍大西洋就提供温暖贴心的一对一服务。

Virgin Atlantic offers warm one on one service from the moment you step on board.

其头等舱提供四道菜的餐食、可完全平躺的座椅，以及按需提供的饮品。

Its upper class cabin features four course meals, fully lay flat seats, and drinks delivered on demand.

乘坐维珍大西洋航空，让旅程与目的地一样非凡。

Make the journey as exceptional as a destination when you fly Virgin Atlantic.

前往 virginatlantic.com 了解更多信息。

Go to virginatlantic.com to learn more.

本节目由Odoo赞助。

Support for this show comes from Odoo.

经营企业已经够难了，为什么还要用十几个互不相通的软件来让事情更复杂呢？

Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other?

隆重推出Odoo。

Introducing Odoo.

这是你一生中唯一需要的商业软件。

It's the only business software you'll ever need.

它是一个全功能、完全集成的平台，让您的工作更轻松。

It's an all in one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier.

客户关系管理、会计、库存、电子商务等。

CRM, accounting, inventory, ecommerce, and more.

最棒的是什么？

And the best part?

Odoo 以极低的成本取代了多个昂贵的平台。

Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost.

因此，成千上万家企业已经选择了切换。

That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch.

那你呢？

So why not you?

前往 odoo.com 免费试用 Odoo。

Try Odoo for free at odoo.com.

就是 odoo.com。

That's odoo.com.

今天的数字是四千万。

Today's number, 40,000,000.

这是前五名灵性商品卖家在Etsy上赚取的美元数额。

That's how many dollars the top five spirituality sellers have made on Etsy.

今天的另一个数字是100。

Today's other number is 100.

这将是我们的最新产品“Prof G水晶”的售价。

That's how many dollars we will be charging for our latest product, Prof G Crystals.

我来给你报价。

I'll give you price.

货币市场疯了。

Money market's mad.

如果钱是邪恶的，那么那栋楼就是地狱。

If money is evil, then that building is hell.

节目结束了。

The show goes off.

价格从来没人关注。

The price are never watched.

这太令人难过了。

It's so sad.

欢迎来到Prof G市场。

Welcome to Prof G Markets.

我是埃德·埃尔森。

I'm Ed Elson.

今天是4月2日。

It is April 2.

让我们来看看昨天的市场关键数据。

Let's check-in on yesterday's market vitals.

主要指数连续第二天上涨。

The major indices extended their rally for a second day in a row.

布伦特原油价格一度跌破每桶100美元。

Brent crude prices briefly slipped below a $100 per barrel.

国债收益率当日持平，美元继续下滑。

Treasury yields were flat on the day, and the dollar continued its slide.

好的。

Okay.

发生什么事了？

What's happening?

股市仍在上涨，市场预期与伊朗的战争正在缓和。

Stocks are still rallying on hopes that war with Iran is winding down.

特朗普总统表示，伊朗总统已请求停火，但美国只有在霍尔木兹海峡真正自由、开放和畅通的情况下才会考虑。

President Trump said the president of Iran has asked for a ceasefire, but The US will only consider when the Strait Of Hormuz is, quote, free, open, and clear.

这发生在特朗普告诉助手，即使霍尔木兹海峡仍被封锁，他也愿意结束战争的第二天。

That comes a day after Trump told aides he'd be open to ending the war even if the Strait Of Hormuz remains closed.

标普500指数周二飙升近3%，纳斯达克指数上涨近4%，所有三大指数昨日继续上涨。

The S and P five hundred surged nearly 3%, and the Nasdaq was up nearly 4% on Tuesday, and all three major indices continued their rise yesterday.

为此，我们邀请到NFJ投资集团的首席投资官、投资组合经理和股票策略师约翰·莫里出席，讨论市场动态。

So here to discuss the market's movement, we're speaking with John Mowrey, Chief Investment Officer, Portfolio Manager and Equity Strategist at NFJ Investment Group.

所以，约翰，我们不断收到这些声明。

So John, we keep on getting all of these announcements.

但需要明确的是，我们是在特朗普发表晚上9点的声明之前录制的。

And to be clear, we are recording this before Trump makes his 9PM announcement.

他说他将向全国发表这一讲话。

He said he's gonna deliver this address to the nation.

当人们听到这段录音时，他已经发表了该讲话。

When people listen to this, he'll have made that address.

很遗憾，我们无法对此进行分析。

Unfortunately, we cannot analyze it.

我们是在之前录制的。

We're recording it before.

然而，目前市场看起来相当乐观。

However, markets appear to be quite optimistic right now.

他们在周二乐观，周三也同样乐观。

They are optimistic on Tuesday, optimistic on Wednesday as well.

您如何看待市场对这场战争可能结束的反应？

What do you make of the market's reaction to what might be an end to this war?

也许不是。

Maybe not.

你怎么看？

What do you think?

所以我认为，当你看到中东局势变化带来的多重估值压缩时，你必须保持一定程度的乐观。

So I think that, you know, when you look at the multiple compression that has occurred off of what has gone on in The Middle East, you have to be somewhat optimistic.

你知道，科技股占标普500指数的最大板块，如今其市盈率低于20倍，而盈利增长却在加速。

You know, technology stocks, which make up the largest sector in the S and P 500, they're now trading below 20 times earnings with accelerating earnings growth.

这实际上是自2022年以来的最低估值水平。

That's actually the lowest multiple since back in '22.

你现在已经超越了‘解放日’时期的估值水平。

You've now gotten past the Liberation Day multiple.

因此，作为长期股票投资者，你必须保持乐观。

So I think you have to be optimistic as a long term equity investor here.

关于石油市场正在发生的情况，我的看法是，显然，石油板块在第一季度表现极为强劲。

What I would say about what's going on in the oil markets, I mean, obviously, the oil sector was extremely strong in the first quarter.

我认为这是自1989年以来第二好的季度。

I think it was the second best quarter since 1989.

能源股在年初时拥有两个明显的优势。

And energy stocks had two distinct advantages going into the year.

首先是它们历史上估值低廉，其次是油价飙升带来的外部冲击。

The first is that they were historically cheap, and then you had the exogenous shock that occurred with the oil spike.

所以我认为，当你观察当前的情况时，展望更多周期性领域时，你确实应该保持乐观。

So I think that, you know, when you look at what's going on, you definitely have to be optimistic as you look at more cyclical areas.

科技股和金融股遭受了严重打压。

Technology, financials have really been beaten up.

尽管整体市场仅下跌了大约7%，但市盈率已经压缩到远低于我

And even though the broader markets are only down, you know, 7%, the multiple has compressed far below what I

认为

think

投资者在考虑总回报基础上的小幅回调时可能预期的水平。

investors might expect given, you know, kind of a more small pullback on a total return basis.

是的。

Yeah.

你提到科技板块很有意思，因为确实这些市盈率已经被压缩了。

It's it's interesting you mentioned the the tech sector there because, yes, the the those multiples have been compressed.

许多科技巨头在这个季度遭受重创，出现了大幅下跌。

A lot of the biggest names in tech have just gotten crushed this quarter, like big, big drawdowns.

而难以理解的是，这些下跌与中东局势究竟有多大关系。

And I guess what's hard to understand is how much of that even has to do with what's happening in The Middle East.

比如周一，我们看到市场出现了一点反弹，恰逢一些和平谈判的消息，或至少有一些声明让人觉得战争可能即将结束。

I mean, on on Monday, as an example, we saw there was a little bit of a rally, and it coincided with some maybe peace talks or at least some, announcements that made it seem like maybe the war was coming to an end.

你看到这次反弹主要集中在科技板块，这让我不禁想，这两者怎么会有关联呢？

You saw this rally, but it was mostly in the tech sector, at which point I'm kind of thinking, why how are these even related?

也许是因为经过霍尔木兹海峡的氦气。

I mean, maybe it's the helium that goes through the Strait Of Hormuz.

这些氦气会进入半导体产业。

It goes into the semiconductors.

但这是真正的问题所在吗？

But is that really the problem here?

比如，这两者之间有什么联系？

Like, what is the connection between those two?

它们之间真的有联系吗？

Is there any connection at all?

那作为投资者，你该怎么办？

And what does that leave you to do as an investor?

是的。

Yeah.

有很多因素在交织影响。

There's a lot of pieces swirling around.

你知道，还有对私人信贷的担忧。

You know, you have the concerns around private credit.

现在你又面临突如其来的通胀冲击。

You now have, you know, shock inflation.

这与高通胀截然不同。

That's very different than hot inflation.

对吧？

Right?

因此，你担心美联储可能无法像人们预期的那样大幅降息。

So you have concern that the Fed may not be able to cut as much as folks thought.

所以我认为，这些是两个明显的担忧。

So I think that, you know, those are two obvious concerns.

然后你还有中东冲突持续多久这样的外部冲击。

And then you have, you know, the exogenous shocks of how long does this conflict in The Middle East drag out.

这看起来比委内瑞拉的情况要复杂一些。

This looks like a bit more of a complicated situation relative to Venezuela.

所以，埃德，我完全同意你的看法。

So I couldn't agree more, Ed.

你知道，当你观察科技领域正在发生的事情时，早在这一消息公布之前，科技股就已经在下跌了。

You know, when you look at what's going on in technology, that was selling off well before this news came out.

嗯。

And Mhmm.

这确实围绕着这些科技公司能否维持其利润率的担忧。

That really is around concerns around can these technology companies hold their margins?

在人工智能进步的背景下，这还能实现吗？

Is that gonna be possible to do with the advances in AI?

颇具讽刺意味的是，标普500指数中市值最大的股票英伟达，某种程度上正在颠覆其自身的软件领域同行。

It's really ironic that NVIDIA, the largest stock in the S and P 500, is disrupting its own siblings to some degree in the software space.

没人真正预料到这一点。

No one really expected that.

但有趣的是，我今天查看了数据，大型软件公司的盈利和利润率至今尚未出现变化。

What's fascinating though, and I was looking at this today, there's not been any change to earnings and margins for the large software names yet.

因此，要么市场只是在预期盈利下调之前进行重新定价，要么就是市场正在重新调整，并出现更广泛的轮动交易。

So either the market just wants to reprice in anticipation of earnings cuts or it's just the market recalibrating and kind of a broadening out trade.

我们已经讨论过市场长期存在的集中化领导格局。

We've talked about concentrated leadership in the market for some time.

因此，这可能是市场在重新调整、消化并压缩某些估值倍数，因为我们继续向前推进，而科技股的收益并未发生变化。

So this may be the market just reshuffling, digesting and compressing some of those multiples as we kind of march forward because the earnings in technology stocks have not changed.

这仅仅是一个估值倍数压缩的故事。

It's just been a multiple compression story.

正如我提到的，私人信贷方面有大量的信息，这也是另一个担忧。

So you have a lot of information with private credit, as I mentioned, that's been another concern.

我认为这引出了一个问题：如果通胀数据走强，而信贷领域又可能出现潜在问题，美联储的应对会不会更加困难？

I think that that parlays into, you know, is the Fed gonna have a harder time reacting if you have hotter inflation numbers coming out to what could be a brewing problem in credit?

许多私人信贷资金都投入了软件领域的各个部分。

And a lot of that private credit has funded a lot of the areas in software.

因此，所有这些因素都是相互关联的，无论是信贷利率，还是它们如何影响CPI数据，以及石油冲击带来的结果。

So all these are connected, whether it's credit interest rates and how that impacts the CPI readings coming out of, you know, the result of the oil shock.

是的。

Yeah.

信贷利率，当然还有人工智能。

Credit interest rates and then, of course, AI.

我想，AI的故事可能也是私人信贷故事的一部分，因为私人信贷的担忧源于对软件领域的持仓，而这些持仓又基于对AI或AI可能对经济产生的影响的预期。

And I guess maybe the AI story is kind of part of the private credit story as well because the private credit concerns are based on the holdings in software, which is based on the holdings in AI or what AI could do to that economy.

是的。

Yes.

看起来，我认为你可能同意这一点，即目前投资者和市场尤其缺乏方向感，或者说更好的表述是，他们的信心水平相比前几年显著降低。

It seems as though and I don't know if you agree with this, but it seems as though investors right now and the markets right now are especially unanchored or special maybe a better way to put it is seem to have very low levels of conviction, at least relative to what they had in in previous years.

比如Suttrini Research的例子，一份关于AI的博客文章发布后，突然所有人都开始抛售。

I mean, what we saw with Suttrini Research as an example where a blog post goes out that's related to AI and suddenly everyone starts selling.

我们最近在内存芯片市场也看到了类似情况，昨天我们在节目中讨论过，谷歌发布了一项算法，称这将改变内存芯片市场的格局，结果所有人都开始抛售。

We saw it recently with the memory chip market, which we were discussing on our show yesterday, where Google comes out with some algorithm that this is gonna change the way the memory chip market works, and then everyone sells.

然后伯恩斯坦发布了研究报告，说：不会有问题。

And then Bernstein comes out with research and says, no.

这根本不是个问题。

It's not gonna be a problem.

于是所有人都开始买入。

Everyone buys.

我不知道你的看法如何，但我感觉投资者现在非常困惑，根本无法坚定任何立场。

I don't know what your reading is, but I get the sense that investors are just so confused right now that they're not really down to go with any position.

他们就像风往哪吹就往哪走。

They're kind of going wherever the wind blows.

我觉得你一针见血。

I think you hit the nail on the head.

我刚查了美光科技，想确保数据准确无误。

I mean, I just pulled up Micron because I wanted to get it exactly right.

美光科技的未来盈利预期增长了739%，但市盈率却只有5倍。

Micron is growing forward earnings at 739% and trades at five times earnings.

这说明市场根本不知道该如何评估它的盈利前景。

So that is the market telling you it doesn't know what to do with the earnings profile.

盈利增长的幅度高得离谱。

The earnings growth is so egregious to the upside.

市场完全不知道该如何应对。

The market does not know what to do.

因此，尽管股价上涨了，但市盈率却被压低了，因为收益增长得异常迅猛。

So the multiple is being pushed down even though the stock has gone up because the earnings have accelerated so dramatically.

英伟达也出现了同样的情况。

The same thing is occurring with NVIDIA.

英伟达的收益增长率为80%，但市盈率却低于20倍。

NVIDIA is growing at 80, and it's trading below 20 times earnings.

这几乎和标普500指数的水平相当了。

That's, you know, at a parity almost with the S and P 500.

我完全同意。

So I couldn't agree more.

我觉得人们还不太清楚该怎么应对这种情况。

I don't think the folks know quite what to do with this.

我认为这最终将取决于超大规模云服务商的资本支出。

I think that it's really gonna come down to CapEx spend from the hyperscalers.

随着季度财报陆续公布，我们会对此有更清晰的了解。

We'll get a read on that as we roll into quarterly earnings.

但我要说，这是一个存在的风险。

But I will say this is one risk that is out there.

如果微软经历了艰难的季度，如果科技七巨头在股市持续表现不佳，这将削弱管理层继续投资资本支出的能力。

To the extent that Microsoft had a really tough quarter, to the extent that the Mag seven continues to struggle in the equity markets, that is going to put pressure on management's ability to contend continue funding CapEx.

历史上，他们一直依靠自由现金流来实现这一点。

You know, historically, they've done it from free cash flow.

现在他们不得不转向债务市场融资。

Now they're having to tap the debt markets.

但市场对这种做法的容忍是有限度的。

So the market will only tolerate that so far.

所以我认为，伊朗战争的走向以及CPI数据的持续表现将至关重要，因为如果科技七巨头的股价持续疲软，这些公司正是许多芯片和内存股票的主要客户。

So I think that, you know, what what plays out here with the war in Iran and the CPI continuing to come in is gonna be really critical because if the equities prices stay stay weak for the Mag seven, you know, those are the those are the customers for many of the of the chip and memory stocks.

因此，他们要继续维持资本支出周期将变得更加困难。

So it's gonna be tougher for them to to continue the CapEx cycle.

所以我们得看看这些财报最终会如何表现，但就我今天坐在这里所看到的估值、盈利水平以及表现良好的板块——比如能源、公用事业、房地产投资信托基金等防御性板块而言，我对经济能够渡过这一难关持乐观态度。

So we're gonna have to see how those earnings shake out, but I will tell you, as I sit here today and I look at where valuations are, I look at where earnings are, and I look at the sectors that did well, some of the more defensive sectors, energy, utilities, REITs, I'm optimistic that that we could push through this.

我认为当前政府真的不希望手上沾上战争。

And I think that the current administration really does not wanna war on their hands.

中期选举即将来临。

The midterms are coming up.

我认为会有很多压力促使各方尽快解决这个问题并退出。

I think that there's gonna be a lot of pressure to resolve this relatively quickly and move out.

特别是考虑到政府表示希望降低利率，如果持续推高油价，而霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭，情况将会变得更加艰难。

And particularly with, you know, the administration saying they want lower rates, it's gonna make it way harder if you continue to push oil prices because the strait stays closed.

你知道，有大约20%的世界石油供应要经过那里。

And, you know, that's 20% of the of the words world's oil supplies going through there.

所以我要提出一个有趣的观点，我还没听任何人谈起过，这与石油有关。

So one point that I will make that is fascinating, I haven't heard anyone talk about this, it relates to oil.

所以，在2022年，你遇到了两件非常糟糕的事情。

So, in 2022, you had two real bad things going on.

对吧？

Right?

当时正处于加息周期，同时还发生了乌克兰事件。

You had interest rate hiking cycle and then you had, the Ukraine.

你知道，乌克兰被俄罗斯入侵，油价因此飙升。

You know, Ukraine was invaded by Russia, and you saw oil oil prices shoot up.

这对市场来说是一个非常艰难的时期，因为美联储正在加息以应对由新冠疫情和供应链中断引发的通胀。

And that was a really tough period for the market because you had, the Fed raising rates to deal with inflation from COVID and supply chain disruptions.

再加上，你知道，还有一场战争正在进行。

And on top of that, you know, you had a a war going on.

所以情况真的非常艰难。

So it was really tough.

随之发生的是，贝克休斯钻机数量大幅增加，以应对更高的油价，增加石油产量。

And what occurred was you saw the Baker Hughes rig count really ramp up oil production to compensate for the higher oil prices.

但这种情况至今尚未发生。

That has not happened yet.

贝克休斯钻机数量并没有上升。

The Baker Hughes rig count has not moved higher.

我们明天会得到相关数据，但这也很有意思。

We're gonna get a reading tomorrow on that, but that's also interesting.

你知道，这需要上升，才能缓解一些限制。

You know, that would need to move up, think, to kind of release some constraint.

如果这种情况没有发生，你可能会看到黄金精炼商和能源股继续在市场中表现，而科技、金融和其他周期性板块也可能迎来补涨。

If that doesn't, you actually could have a scenario where the gold refiners and the energy stocks maybe continue to to participate in the market, but you see technology financials and other cyclicals kinda play a catch up trade as well.

所以这可能是一个看涨的格局。

So it could be a bullish setup.

对。

Right.

是的。

Yeah.

看起来你可能会在回调时买入，或者你已经买入了回调。

It seems as though you are you would buy the dip, or maybe you have already bought the dip.

现在有没有哪些股票或板块是你特别看好的？

Are there any names or any sectors that you feel particularly bullish on right now?

我感觉这就是你的立场。

I get the sense that that is your position.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我可以告诉你，我们已经兑现了一些能源领域的利润。

So I I will tell you that we have taken some energy profits.

我们之前在能源板块超配，但这并不是基于中东的任何事件做出的判断。

We were overweight energy, and that was not a call based on anything in The Middle East.

这是一个基于估值的自下而上的决策。

It was a bottom up call in valuation.

所以我们幸运地做出了正确的配置，你知道，这次确实是对的。

So we were fortunately positioned, you know, the right way this Yeah.

所以，我们就顺势落袋为安了。

So, you know, we'll take it.

但我想说的是，我们一直在增持一些更具周期性的领域，比如金融和工业板块。

But what I would say is that we've been adding to some of the more cyclical areas like financials, like industrials.

你知道，金融板块经历了非常艰难的时期，特别是2023年硅谷银行和第一共和银行倒闭后，地区性银行受到重创。

You know, financials have went through a really tough time, particularly the regional banks back in 2023 with the fair failure of Silicon Valley and First Republic.

你看到很多估值倍数出现了错配。

You know, you're getting a lot of multiple dislocation.

那里的市净率很有吸引力，而且收益率曲线已经变陡。

Price to books are attractive there, and the yield curve has steepened.

现在我们得看看美联储接下来会怎么行动。

Now we'll see what happens here with the Fed.

如果他们不降息，这会给收益率曲线带来一些压力。

You know, if they don't cut, that's gonna put a little bit pressure on the yield curve.

但我的预期是，收益率曲线变陡是经济健康的信号。

But my expectation that that you should have a steep yield curve, that's a healthy sign for the economy.

我不认为你希望十年期国债收益率与联邦基金利率持平，而这恰恰是我们今天所处的状况。

I don't think you want the ten year parity with the Fed funds rate, which is basically where we are today.

所以如果曲线继续变陡，银行股应该会大涨。

So if that steepens, banks should fly.

它们的资产负债表非常强劲。

They've got great balance sheets.

它们没有涉足私人信贷。

They're not exposed to private credit.

我喜欢这里的金融股。

I like financials here.

然后，正如我提到的，资本货物领域的部分工业股，比如工业机械，这些股票看起来很有吸引力。

And then, as I mentioned, some of the industrials in the capital goods space, industrial machinery, these names look attractive.

我认为市场正在重新调整，不愿为长期限资产支付溢价，也就是说，投资者更青睐能产生现金流的实物资产，而不是软件类股票。

And I think the market is trying to recalibrate, doesn't wanna pay for longer duration assets, meaning the software trade or is more interested in cash flow generative hard assets.

我认为市场正在意识到，人工智能领域实际上需要实物资产。

And I think the market is recognizing that actually the AI trade needs hard assets.

因此，这些领域相对于科技股可能被过度低估了。

And so maybe it's overly discounted these areas relative to the technology trade.

所以，我认为这些领域可能会出现估值收窄。

So I think that you could see a compression there.

你已经看到了。

You're already seeing it.

所以，是的，我非常乐观。

So, yeah, I I'm I'm I'm optimistic.

你知道，我们可能会看到进一步下跌。

You know, we could see a leg lower.

如果这种情况发生，我一点也不惊讶。

I would not be surprised if that happens.

但话虽如此，我认为你现在应该加仓股票，因为你正在以低于20倍的市盈率买入标普指数，昨天还不到20倍。

But that being said, I think that you should be adding to equities here given that you're, you know, you're you're getting the S and P, you know, it was under 20 times yesterday.

对。

Right.

在让你走之前，我们来看看特朗普会怎么说。

Just before we let you go here, we'll see what Trump says.

但你提到，这一届政府可能不希望卷入战争，也不希望面对更高的油价。

But you mentioned that this administration probably doesn't wanna have a war on its hands, probably doesn't wanna be dealing with even higher oil prices.

中期选举即将到来。

Midterms are coming up.

我在概念上同意所有这些观点。

I agree conceptually with all of that.

然而，这也是我今年年初的想法，也是我去年的想法。

However, it's also that's also what I thought at the beginning of the year, and it's also what I thought last year.

但随后他们真的发动了战争，并关闭了霍尔木兹海峡。

And then they did start a war, and they did close down the Strait Of Hormuz.

是的。

Yes.

他们还是推进了这一切。

And they went ahead with all of this.

这让我处于一个有点困难的境地。

So that leaves me in a slightly difficult position.

我从理论上同意。

I I agree theoretically.

他们大概想结束这件事，但我看看他们实际做的，就觉得也许并不是这样。

Probably they wanna end this thing, but then I look at what they do, and I'm like, well, maybe not.

也许根本无法理解这件事。

Maybe there's no way to understand it.

也许根本无法走进他的内心，预测接下来会发生什么。

Maybe there's no way to get into his mind and predict what's gonna happen.

我想问你的是，假设这种情况继续下去。

I guess my question to you is, let's say this continues.

假设他的演讲毫无实质内容，或者他说，实际上我要加倍投入。

Let's say the speech is a nothing burger or he says, actually, I'm doubling down.

这会改变你的立场吗？

Would that change your position at all?

如果会，会如何改变？

And if so, how?

你知道吗，我认为他们的策略就是关税发生的事情。

You know, I think the playbook is what happened with the tariffs.

他划定了强硬的底线，但市场最终迫使他让步。

He drew a hard line, and the market ultimately forced his hand.

这就像马克·扎克伯格说，我们要把公司更名为Meta的时候一样。

It's not unlike when Mark Zuckerberg said, you know, we're gonna rename the company Meta.

我们要做元宇宙。

We're gonna do the metaverse.

然后市场让股价下跌了67%，他只好说：哎呀。

And then the market took the stock down 67%, and he said, whoops.

这是效率之年。

It's the year of efficiency.

是的。

Yeah.

因此，市场最终决定了领导层必须如何应对。

So the market ultimately dictates how leadership has to respond.

所以他们可以划定强硬立场，但特朗普似乎确实非常关注股票市场的动态。

So they can draw hard lines, but Trump is he does seem to be very aware of what's going on in the equity markets.

说实话，我不确定这是否不妥。

And to be honest, I don't know if that's not improper.

我认为国家领导人应该关注世界上最大公司的动态。

I think that a leader of the country should be focused on what the largest companies in the world are doing.

同意。

Agreed.

所以，实际上我认为，如果他采取更消极的立场，而市场做出非常负面的反应，我的预期是这会对他形成压力。

So I actually think that if he comes out with a more negative stance and the market reacts very negatively, my expectation is that that will be pressuring him.

因为，再次强调，只要市场持续低迷，就会开始对资本支出周期施加压力。

Because, again, to the extent the market stay negative, that starts to put pressure on the CapEx cycle.

没错。

Yep.

这会对人工智能建设施加压力。

That puts pressure on the AI build out.

这也会加剧与中国在建设方面的紧张关系。

That puts pressure on tensions with China and their build out.

因此，在股市疲软的背景下，发生了各种地缘政治博弈。

So there's all this geopolitical chess that occurs with a weak equity market.

我认为，为了让美国处于最佳位置，我们需要一个强劲的股市。

I think for America to be in the best position, we need a strong equity market.

我认为，这最终将成为他用来决策，或他在考虑如何应对伊朗冲突时所权衡的关键因素。

And I think that that's gonna ultimately be the lever that that he uses to to or that he's gonna be considering when he thinks about how he deals with the Iranian conflict.

我认为，我个人的看法是，实际情况已经证明比他预想的要复杂得多。

And I think that my personal opinion is it's already proved to be more complex than he anticipated.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得这是对的。

I think that's right.

约翰·莫里，NFJ投资集团首席投资官、投资组合经理和股票策略师。

John Mowrey, chief investment officer, portfolio manager, and equity strategist at NFJ Investment Group.

约翰，感谢你的时间。

John, appreciate your time.

谢谢。

Thank you.

广告后，OpenAI 再次创造历史。

After the break, OpenAI makes history again.

如果你喜欢这个节目，请从下周开始关注我们的新频道 Prof G Markets 于 YouTube。

And if you're enjoying the show, please follow our new Prof G Markets YouTube channel starting next week.

我们的 YouTube 内容就在那里。

That is where you'll find our content on YouTube.

链接在简介中。

The link is in the description.

现在就订阅。

Subscribe now.

本节目由领英赞助。

Support for the show comes from LinkedIn.

当最好的 B2B 营销被浪费在错误的受众身上时，真是令人遗憾。

It's a shame when the best b to b marketing gets wasted on the wrong audience.

想象一下，在周六早间的卡通节目里投放白内障手术广告，或者在关于Roblox的视频里推广这个节目。

Like, imagine running an ad for cataract surgery on Saturday morning cartoons or running a promo for this show on a video about Roblox or something.

不是针对我们的Gen Alpha听众，但这样做简直是浪费广告预算。

No offense to our Gen Alpha listeners, but that would be a waste of anyone's ad budget.

所以，如果你想触达正确的专业人士，可以使用LinkedIn广告。

So when you wanna reach the right professionals, you can use LinkedIn ads.

根据他们的数据，LinkedIn已经发展成为一个拥有超过10亿专业人士和1.3亿决策者的网络。

LinkedIn has grown to a network of over 1,000,000,000 professionals and a 130,000,000 decision makers according to their data.

这正是它与其他广告投放方式的不同之处。

That's where it stands apart from other ad buys.

你可以根据职位、行业、公司角色、职级、技能、公司营收等精准定位买家，从而避免把预算浪费在错误的受众身上。

You can target buyers by job title, industry, company role, seniority, skills, company revenue, all so you can stop wasting budget on the wrong audience.

因此，LinkedIn广告在所有在线广告平台中拥有最高的B2B广告投资回报率。

That's why LinkedIn ads post one of the highest b to b return on ad spend of all online ad networks.

真的，所有平台里都是最高的。

Seriously, all of them.

在 LinkedIn 广告上为您的首个活动投入 250 美元，即可获得 250 美元的免费广告额度。

Spend $250 on your first campaign on LinkedIn ads and get a free $250 credit for the one.

只需访问 linkedin.com/scott。

Just go to linkedin.com/scott.

就是 linkedin.com/scott。

That's linkedin.com/scott.

条款和条件适用。

Terms and conditions apply.

本节目由 Odoo 赞助。

Support for this show comes from Odoo.

经营企业已经够难了，何必再用十几个互不相通的应用程序让事情变得更复杂呢？

Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other?

隆重推出 Odoo。

Introducing Odoo.

这是您一生中唯一需要的商业软件。

It's the only business software you'll ever need.

这是一个一体化的全集成平台，让您的工作更轻松。

It's an all in one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier.

客户关系管理、会计、库存、电子商务等一应俱全。

CRM, accounting, inventory, ecommerce, and more.

最棒的是什么？

And the best part?

Odoo 以极低的成本取代了多个昂贵的平台。

Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost.

因此，成千上万家企业已经选择了切换到 Odoo。

That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch.

那您为什么不来试试呢？

So why not you?

前往 odoo.com 免费试用 Odoo。

Try Odoo for free at odoo.com.

就是 odoo.com。

That's odoo.com.

这是由维珍大西洋航空Ed赞助的广告内容。

This is advertiser content brought to you by Virgin Atlantic Ed.

几周前，我给你送了一份生日礼物，不是为了自夸，但确实很不错。

A couple weeks back, I got you a birthday gift, not to pat myself on the back, but it was a pretty good one.

确实如此。

It was indeed.

你送了我维珍大西洋航空头等舱的伦敦机票。

You surprised me with Virgin Atlantic upper class tickets to London.

那给我们详细讲讲吧。

So, tell us all about it.

那简直太棒了。

It was pretty incredible.

从我踏入头等舱的那一刻起，我必须说，我感觉自己像个贵宾。

From the moment I entered that upper class cabin, I have to tell you, I felt like a VIP.

我需要的任何东西——饮料、小吃、座椅协助——都随时可得。

Anything I needed, a drink, snack, assistance with the seat.

平躺座椅。

Flat seats.

平躺座椅。

Flat seats.

确实如此。

That's the case.

平躺座椅。

Flat seats.

没错。

Exactly.

享用了四道菜的餐食。

Had the four course meal.

喝了香槟。

Got my champagne.

非常美味。

Very delicious.

食物很享受。

Enjoyed the food.

回家的旅程呢？

And the journey home?

回家的旅程很棒。

The journey home was great.

我去了维珍大西洋伦敦希思罗俱乐部休息室。

I went to the Virgin Atlantic LHR Clubhouse.

那就是希思罗俱乐部休息室。

That's the Heathrow Clubhouse.

希思罗俱乐部休息室太棒了。

Heathrow Clubhouse was awesome.

我给自己买了一杯咖啡。

Got myself a coffee.

然后去了他们称为Soma Dome的冥想室。

Headed over to the meditation pod that they call the Soma Dome.

感觉有点像一艘宇宙飞船，你可以在这里放松，想想美好的事情。

Kind of felt like a sort of spaceship where you relax and and think think nice thoughts.

所以我在那里待了一会儿。

So I did that for a little bit.

然后我们去了机翼区，那里是隔音隔间，可以用来工作。

Then we went over to the wing, which are these acoustically sealed booths where you could do some work.

你甚至可以录制播客。

You could even record a podcast.

我没这么做，但也许我该做的。

I didn't do that, but maybe I should have.

这是一次非常愉快的体验。

It was a very enjoyable experience.

所以，埃德，真正的问题是，你打算给我买什么生日礼物？

So, Ed, the real question here is what are you planning to get me for my birthday?

用维珍大西洋航空，换个角度看世界。

See the world differently with Virgin Atlantic.

飞行不应仅仅是一种交通工具。

Flying should be more than just transport.

它本身就是冒险的一部分。

It is part of the adventure.

前往 virginatlantic.com 了解更多信息。

Go to virginatlantic.com to learn more.

机票和休息室准入由维珍大西洋航空提供。

Tickets and lounge access provided by Virgin Atlantic.

我们继续回到 Prof G Markets 的节目。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

OpenAI 刚刚完成了创业史上最大规模的融资轮。

OpenAI just closed the largest funding round in start up history.

本轮融资吸引了1220亿美元的承诺资本，高于该公司今年二月宣布的1100亿美元。

The round brought in a $122,000,000,000 of committed capital, up from the $110,000,000,000 the company announced in February.

软银与安德森·霍洛维茨和D公司共同领投。

SoftBank co led alongside Andreessen Horowitz and D.