为何科技股抛售突然逆转

本期节目由Attio赞助播出，Attio是为那些节奏飞快的团队打造的CRM系统。

Support for the show comes from Attio, the CRM for teams who set the pace.

你知道那个成交速度比谁都快的销售代表吗？

You know that rep who closes faster than everyone else?

他们其实并不像表面看起来那么简单。

They're not quite who they seem.

当他们每次通话前都准备充分，写出完美的交接简报和跟进邮件，并且及时捕捉每一个信号时，其实背后有Attio在24小时为他们工作。

While they're walking into every call prepped, writing perfect hand-off briefs and follow-ups, and catching every signal in time, they've actually got Attio working for them around the clock.

Attio的收入代理会筛选并处理每一个账户，让他们能轻松地大规模推进。

Attio's revenue agents qualify and work every account so they can move at scale with ease.

这就是Granola、Motil和Whisperflow这些初创公司获胜的方式。

It's how startups including Granola, Motil, and Whisperflow win.

你可以访问attio.com/profg，第一年可享受15%的折扣。

You can go to attio.com/profg and you'll get 15% off your first year.

网址是A-T-T-I-O.com/profg。

That's A-T-T-I-O.com/profg.

我是伊娜·加滕，每周在《欢乐时光》节目中，我都会邀请新老朋友来纽约的厨房餐桌旁，一起喝一杯，聊聊天。

I'm Ina Garten, and each week on Happy Hour, I invite new and old friends for a drink and a fun conversation at my kitchen table in New York City.

本周的节目，我请来了朱莉娅·路易斯-德瑞弗斯。

On this week's episode, I'm joined by Julia Louis-Dreyfus.

我们聊了聊一起在巴黎看时装秀、办晚宴，以及她在《沙漠城市》中首次登上百老汇舞台的经历。

We talk all about attending a fashion show in Paris together, throwing dinner parties, and making her Broadway debut in Other Desert Cities.

《欢乐时光》的新一期节目每周三更新。

New episodes of Happy Hour are available every Wednesday.

你可以在YouTube上观看，或者在任何收听播客的平台上收听。

You can watch on YouTube or listen wherever you get your podcasts.

干杯。

Cheers.

如果布鲁斯·斯普林斯汀没有成为今天的超级巨星，会怎样？

What if Bruce Springsteen had never become the superstar he is today?

我是威尔·安德森，本周在我的音乐历史播客《周一音乐俱乐部》中，我们将和彼得·埃姆斯·卡林一起聊聊他突破性专辑《Born to Run》的制作过程，彼得可是专门写过一本关于这张专辑的书。

I'm Will Anderson, and this week on my music history podcast, The Monday Music Club, we're talking about the making of his breakthrough album, Born to Run, with the guy who wrote the literal book on it, Peter Ames Carlin.

他把太多自己投入到了音乐里，几乎是全部的自己。

He had put so much of himself into his music, like all of himself.

对他来说，维持一段长久的感情关系很难。

It was hard for him to have romantic relationships that could last.

他除了把全部精力放在吉他上，其他什么都不做。

He didn't really do anything but put all the energy into his guitar.

这期节目很有趣，现在就去搜索“Monday Music Club”收听吧，任何播客平台都能找到。

It's a fun ride, so listen to the episode right now by searching for Monday Music Club anywhere you get your podcasts.

一万七千六百五十美元。

$17,650.

货币市场太庞大了。

Money markets massive.

如果金钱是邪恶的，那那座大楼就是地狱。

If money is evil, then that building is hell.

演出继续！

The show goes on!

请进来看表演吧。

Step right in there and watch the show.

表演！

Show!

欢迎收听《Prof G 市场》节目。

Welcome to Prof G Markets.

我是艾德·艾尔森。

I'm Ed Elson.

今天是10月20日。

It is October 20th.

我们来回顾一下昨天的市场动态。

Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals.

标普500和纳斯达克指数上涨，因为交易员们趁上周下跌时买入。

The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ rallied as traders bought last week's dip.

道琼斯指数持平。

The Dow was flat.

与此同时，布伦特原油价格仍保持在每桶109美元以上。

Meanwhile, Brent crude remained above $109 per barrel.

美元走高，十年期美国国债收益率也上升了。

The dollar climbed, and the yield on 10-year Treasuries rose.

好的。

Okay.

还有什么其他消息？

What else is happening?

昨天是黑色星期一39周年，那是历史上最严重的单日股市崩盘，而本周投资者们都在为类似的情况做准备。

Yesterday was the 39th anniversary of Black Monday, the worst single-day stock market crash in history, and this week, investors were bracing for something similar.

科技股刚刚经历了自2025年4月以来最糟糕的一周，而且几乎没有迹象表明抛售已经结束。

Tech stocks were coming off their worst week since April 2025, and there was little sign that the selling was over.

但到了周一，投资者们决定是时候买入了。

But then Monday rolled around, and investors decided that it was time to buy.

芯片巨头昨天上涨了1.6%，纳斯达克指数上涨了1.2%，投资者们趁低买入。

Chip giants rallied 1.6% yesterday, and the NASDAQ gained 1.2% as investors bought the dip.

不过，即使高盛将CoreWeave的股票评级上调至买入，其股价仍下跌了0.4%。

Still, CoreWeave fell another 0.4% even after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to a buy.

这还是在上周已经暴跌20%的基础上继续下跌。

That was on top of a 20% drop last week.

那么，大家上周的担忧是不是过度了呢？

So were last week's fears overblown?

为了帮我们解答这个问题，我们请到了NFJ投资集团的首席投资官John Mowrey先生。

Here to help us answer this question, we're speaking with John Mowrey, Chief Investment Officer at NFJ Investment Group.

约翰，谢谢你来到我们的节目。

John, thanks for joining us on the show.

所以上周科技股的表现非常糟糕。

So last week was very bad for tech.

任何跟AI概念沾边的股票都跌得很惨。

It was generally brutal for any stock that was related to the AI trade.

当时很多人都在猜，这种跌势会延续到本周。

There was a lot of speculation that it would continue into this week.

我在刷推特的时候，周末看到的全是说可能又要迎来黑色星期一了。

When I was scrolling on Twitter, that's all I saw over the weekend is we might see Black Monday once again.

但事实并非如此。

That is not what happened.

投资者在买入。

Investors bought.

你怎么看待市场这几天的表现？

What do you make of what we saw in the markets?

嗯，我觉得有几件不同的事情在同时发生。

Well, I think there's a couple different things going on.

我认为关于CoreWeave债券和信贷市场的担忧，确实是投资者需要认真对待的。

I think the concerns around what was happening with the credit markets with CoreWeave's bonds is definitely something that investors need to take very seriously.

而且我觉得这对整个行业都产生了重大影响。

And I think that that's had a major impact across the space.

这些高度依赖新云建设（即专业数据中心）的公司，背负着大量债务。

These companies that are very exposed to the neo cloud bill out, which are the specialized data centers, those have a lot of debt.

如果经济放缓，或者资本支出稍微减少，那些公司将是受影响最大的，Ed，所以我认为市场对此的担忧是合理的。

And if you have slowdown in the economy or a little bit of a slowdown in CapEx spending, those are going to be the most exposed, Ed, so I think that the markets are rightfully concerned about that.

而且CoreWeave的一些担忧已经渗透到了市场中。

And some of those CoreWeave concerns have kind of woven their way into the market.

当我们只看周一的股价走势时，CoreWeave似乎有点被隔离了，因为纳斯达克上涨了，科技股上涨了，但CoreWeave继续下跌。

When we just look at the price action we saw on Monday, it seems like CoreWeave might have been ring-fenced a little bit because the NASDAQ rose, tech stocks rose, but CoreWeave continued to slide.

你认为这是CoreWeave特有的新云问题，而不是整个股市的问题，也不是其他科技股的问题吗？

Do you think of this as a specifically CoreWeave neo cloud problem that isn't a problem for, one, the rest of the stock market, but two, the rest of tech stocks?

这是否是局部性的？

Is this sort of contained?

我认为这仅仅是信贷市场的问题。

I only think it's about the credit markets.

我们回到现在的利率水平，十年期国债收益率已经超过5%。

I go back to where we're seeing interest rates today, where you've got the 10-year over 5%.

这将对那些最依赖债务融资的公司产生直接影响，增加它们的资本成本。

That's going to have a direct impact on the cost of capital for the companies that are the most exposed to debt financing.

埃德，如果你还记得的话，那些超大规模云服务商，他们很多都能自己融资。

The hyperscalers, Ed, if you remember, those can self-finance a lot of this.

他们受高利率的影响没那么大。

They're not as impacted by those higher rates.

所以我觉得像CoreWeave这样的公司会更容易受影响，但这也确实带来了真正的机会，因为现在很多公司的估值都跌到了六个月来的最低点。

So I think that you're going to have companies like CoreWeave that are going to be more exposed, but I think that it does provide a real opportunity because you've got a lot of companies that are now trading at some of the lowest multiples in six months.

如果你回头看AI交易和相关公司，很多都已经横盘六个月了。

If you look back at the AI trade and the companies more exposed to that, a lot of these have been dead money now for six months.

因为波动性加大，人们现在开始关注这个了。

People are now starting to pay attention to it because of additional volatility.

但现实是，很多这些股票近半年来回报都不怎么样。

But the reality is a lot of these stocks have not had a very good return now for almost half a year.

你觉得哪些股票被低估了，或者市场上有哪些地方，至少有些公司或股票在AI交易中被过度惩罚了？

What are some of the stocks that you think are undervalued, or some of the places in the market where at least Some of these companies, some of these names have been overpunished when it comes to the AI trade.

所以，在半导体领域，我会提到一些名字，比如德州仪器这样的股票。

So, some of the names that I would point to in the semiconductor space, you've got stocks like Texas Instruments.

这只股票年增长率超过50%，股息收益率2%。

The stock is growing at over 50% year over year, 2% dividend yield.

所以在半导体领域，确实有一些非常有吸引力的股票。

So you've got some really attractive names on the semiconductor side.

英伟达显然是这个群体中的佼佼者，前瞻市盈率不到15倍。

Nvidia is obviously kind of the standout stalwart of the group, trading at under 15 times earnings on a forward basis.

所以我认为在芯片领域有一些非常好的机会，同时在工业领域，像Generac这样的公司，它们涉及数据中心所需的暖通空调系统、冷却系统以及备用发电机。

So I think you've got some really attractive opportunities on the chip side, but then also on the industrial side, companies like Generac that are involved in kind of the HVAC systems and the cooling systems needed for some of these data centers and the backup generators.

这些股票也大幅回调了，而且亚马逊最近和他们达成了合作，我认为这真的会扩大他们的业务管道。

Those also have pulled back pretty significantly, and Amazon did a deal with them recently, which I think really extends the pipeline for them.

所以机会很多，Ed。

So there are a lot of opportunities, Ed.

我只是觉得大家需要稍微适应一下市场可能出现的波动。

I just think that folks are going to have to be a little bit comfortable with the volatility you may see in the market.

但说实话，正是这种波动创造了机会。

But quite frankly, that's what sets up the opportunity.

如果我们确切知道明年的资本支出会是多少，如果我们确切知道十年期国债收益率会涨到哪里，那市场很快就会重新定价。

If we knew exactly what CapEx was going to be next year, if we knew exactly where the 10-year yield was going to top out, then that would be repriced quickly in the markets.

所以我认为，正是这些错位提供了机会，尤其是在我们展望今年下半年或最后一个季度的时候。

So I think that these dislocations are what provide the opportunity, particularly as we look out in the back half or in the back quarter of the year.

我一直在思考这个市场，听起来你可能会同意，那就是所有关于人工智能建设以及为融资这些建设而背负的债务的担忧，这些担忧都是有道理的、正确的、合理的。

Something that I've been thinking about this market, and it sounds like you might agree, is that all of the fears about the AI build-out and about the amount of debt that has been taken on to finance this build-out, all of these fears are warranted, correct, justified.

但看起来这些担忧正在被市场消化。

But it does seem that they're being priced in.

至少公开市场似乎已经意识到，很多这些公司的未来非常不确定。

It does seem like the public markets at least are recognizing that the futures of a lot of these names are very uncertain.

他们正在把这些不确定性计入估值倍数中。

They're pricing that into the multiples.

是的，股价上涨了，但盈利增长远超股价涨幅，所以估值倍数反而有所收缩。

Yes, the stocks went up, but also the earnings went up way more than the stocks did, and so the multiples have kind of contracted.

当我思考人工智能泡沫有多大时，在我看来，它只存在于市场的某些领域，尤其是私募市场。

And when I think about the extent to which there is an AI bubble, it seems to me that it only exists in certain areas of the market, most particularly in my view, the private markets.

看起来像Anthropic和OpenAI这样估值达到两万亿美元或一万五千亿美元的公司，在AI投资出现负面情况时面临的下行风险其实非常大。比起我们刚才提到的那些公司，比如英伟达，它们的风险暴露程度更高，但市场对待它们的方式却不一样，仿佛这些风险根本不存在一样。

It seems like Anthropic, OpenAI asking for $2 trillion, $1.5 trillion valuation, it seems like those companies are significantly exposed to the downsides of the AI trade going wrong, more so than a lot of the names that we're talking about, like Nvidia, for example, but they're being treated differently as if the risks don't exist.

所以我想听听你对我的这个观点的反应，你觉得我说的有道理吗？

So I guess your reactions to my sort of theory of where the bubble actually is, do you agree with me?

关于私募市场这块，我会从两个方面来回答。

I think the private market, I'll answer this in kind of two ways.

先说公开市场这一方面，我觉得90年代末到2000年3月达到顶峰的那轮科技泡沫，可能是给今天这场AI热潮带来的最大礼物了。

The first point on the public side, I actually would argue that maybe the tech bubble back in the late '90s and then peaking in March of 2000 may have been the biggest gift that we could have ever given the AI boom today.

因为我觉得那件事，埃德，其实是给市场设了一些护栏。

Because I think what that did, Ed, is it created some guardrails.

大家现在最担心的就是，我们是不是又回到了1999年的那种状态？

Everyone is worried about are we in '99?

我在X平台上看到无数次有人猜测，我们是不是在1998年？

The number of times I see this on X or people guessing, are we in '98?

还是说我们在1999年？

Are we in '99?

我们现在是在2000年3月吗？

Are we in March of 2000?

所以我觉得，当有这么多人在调查是否存在循环融资、泡沫是否已经形成，或者这只是一个还有很长路要走的繁荣时，

So I think when you have so many people that are investigating, is there circular financing, has the bubble formed, or is this just a boom that has much longer legs to go?

所以我认为，科技泡沫几乎为今天的支出提供了一种护栏。

So I think that the tech bubble provided almost kind of a guardrail for the spending that we have today.

而且，当你考虑到相对于过去几年利率有多高，AI建设在那些限制性利率加上科技泡沫的审视下仍然持续，我认为这实际上可能是一个有趣的局面，表明它可能比人们预期的更持久。

And really when you think about how high interest rates are relative to the last several years, the fact that the AI buildup has continued with those restrictive rates plus the scrutiny from the tech bubble, I think that actually is kind of an interesting setup for maybe it being more durable than folks expect.

你关于私募市场的问题，私募市场总是带有额外的风险，因为这些设置的不透明性。

Your question on the private side, private markets always carry additional risk because of the opaque nature of those setups.

我真的很想知道，也希望OpenAI和Anthropic能够上市，因为我认为那将为市场提供更多的清晰度。

And I really am curious and would like to see OpenAI and Anthropic come public because I think that that will provide a lot more clarity to the markets.

所以，埃德，我认为那将是我们另一个重要的数据点。

And so I think that will be another important data point for us, Ed.

但讽刺的是，对于2026年正在进行的AI繁荣来说，2000年的科技泡沫可能是我们所能拥有的最好的事情。

But ironically, the best thing that we could've had for the AI boom that's going on in 2026 with a tech bubble of 2000.

Anthropic 下个月应该就要上市了。

Anthropic is supposed to go public next month.

我预测他们会遇到很多困难，因为现在公开市场的投资者其实相当挑剔，而且他们也很担忧。

My prediction is that I think they're going to struggle a lot, because it does seem that public markets investors are actually quite discerning right now and they are concerned.

他们回顾99年，会说：“有哪些相似之处？”

They look back at '99 and they say, "What are the similarities?

“我们能从哪些地方找到类比？”

Where can we draw the analogies?"

我觉得去年他们可能还没那么做。

I think maybe last year they weren't doing that so much.

现在看起来他们确实在这么做，而且他们可能会看Anthropic和OpenAI，然后说：“好吧，风险就在这里。”

It seems like they definitely are, and it seems like they're going to look at Anthropic and they're going to look at OpenAI and be like, "Okay, this is where the risk is.

“这些公司都在烧几十亿美元。”

These are the companies that are burning billions of dollars.

“他们还没盈利。”

They're not profitable.

它们看起来短期内很难实现盈利。

They don't seem to be on a path where they're going to be profitable in the very near future.

所以我们会像对待英伟达等其他公司一样，给它们稍微保守一点的估值倍数。

So we're going to slap some slightly difficult multiples on them in the same way that we've done it to a lot of these other names like you've mentioned, like we've done with Nvidia."

所以我想知道，当这些公司上市时，比如 Anthropic 上市，你觉得投资者会怎么反应？

So I guess my question, when those companies go public, when Anthropic goes public, for example, how do you think investors will receive it?

你是觉得大家会疯狂追捧，还是会相对谨慎一些？

Do you think that they will be going crazy for it, or do you think that they'll be a little bit more cautious?

拿SpaceX做个有趣的参考吧，那基本上就是埃隆·马斯克开的一张空白支票。

If we look at SpaceX as kind of an interesting kind of proxy, that's more or less a blank check from Elon Musk.

看看他那次IPO时的市值相对于盈利能力的比例，我觉得市场胃口可能比我们以为的要大一些，毕竟它最近消化了一个非常大的IPO。

If you look at the market cap that he commanded with that IPO relative to the earnings power, I think the market appetite might be a little bit richer than maybe we're all assuming to some degree because it absorbed a very large IPO recently.

很多科技股在90年代末、2000年初上市时，市值要小得多，但估值却高得多。

A lot of these tech stocks when they were IPO-ing back in the late '90s, early 2000s, had much smaller market caps, much higher valuations.

所以我觉得市场热情可能更强一点，不过还得看后续发展。

So I think the appetite may be a little stronger, but we'll have to see.

Anthropic看起来是第一家跳进大海的公司，我们得看看它能不能游起来。

Anthropic looks like it's the first company to jump out into the ocean, and we're going to have to see if it can swim.

所以它会受到严格审视，我觉得这是好事，Ed。

So it's going to be scrutinized heavily, and I think that's good, Ed.

我觉得我们需要这样的审视。

I think we need that.

它需要跨过一些障碍，这样才能为投入资本的回报率铺平道路，因为最终这一切都要归结到这一点上。

It needs to clear some hurdles, and that will provide a runway for what are the returns on invested capital, because ultimately, that's what this is going to come down to.

随着人们持续投入，你能得到多少回报？

As people continue spending, what return are you getting?

而且我要告诉你，随着AI股票牛市延续，这个门槛会越来越高，因为要赚到像四五年前投资这个领域时能赚到的回报，会越来越难。

And I will tell you that as we extend the bull market in AI stocks, that threshold is going to get higher and higher because it's going to be harder to earn those returns that you could have earned four, five, six years ago if you were investing in the space.

所以门槛会很高，市场需要这种明确性。

So the threshold's going to be high, and the market needs that clarity.

但我觉得，Ed，这一切其实正在为市场的许多领域创造独特的机会，无论是工业股、科技股，还是部分银行股。

But all this, I think, Ed, is really what's setting up a unique opportunity in many pockets of the market, whether it's industrials, whether it's technology, whether it's some of the banking stocks.

我们看到很多估值都压得很低。

We're seeing really depressed multiples.

上次我来的时候，Ed，我们聊到的一个话题就是市场是不是在收窄。

And last time I was on, Ed, one of the things we talked about was kind of is the market narrowing.

那次聊完之后，我一直在想这个问题。

And I've thought about this a lot since we discussed that.

你当时问我：“这是健康的吗？”

And you'd asked me the question, "Is this healthy?

“这是健康的现象吗？”

Is this a healthy thing going on?"

我觉得，其实推动市场收窄的一个因素就是信贷的重新定价。

And I think that actually, one of the things that is driving the narrowness of the market is the repricing of credit.

今年年初的时候，大家都以为利率会下降。

At the beginning of the year, everyone thought rates were going to go down.

他们以为特朗普会安排一个倾向于低利率的人进美联储。

They thought Trump was going to put someone in the Fed that would want lower rates.

那时候我们还不清楚伊朗的战争情况。

We didn't know about the war in Iran at that point.

所以我觉得这些因素让信贷重新定价，确实打击了一些小盘股。

So I think those elements have allowed credit to reprice, and it's really punished some of the smaller stocks.

我觉得这更多不是AI交易推动市场、英伟达撑住大盘，而是信贷重新定价，受影响最大的就是那些中小型公司。

And I think that's been less about the AI trade driving the market and Nvidia holding up the market, and more about credit being repriced, and those companies that are most exposed are kind of the small and medium companies.

所以我觉得如果Anthropic的IPO能明确，伊朗冲突能解决，信贷市场能稍微松一口气，这里就有很大的上涨空间。

So I think there's a lot of upside here if we get clarity from Anthropic on an IPO, if we get some resolution with the conflict in Iran, and if we get a little bit of reprieve on the credit markets.

确实有一些因素在压制市场，如果这些因素突然逆转，你会看到股票暴涨。

It does seem that there are some things that are suppressing the market right now, which if they just turned on a dime, you'd see stocks explode.

我觉得你上次也说过这个。

I think you said this last time.

这有点像弹簧压紧的机制。

There is kind of a spring-loading mechanism.

如果，不管什么原因，而且说清楚，我觉得这短期内不会发生，但如果伊朗那边有好消息，那对股市来说就是完全不同的环境了。

If, for whatever reason, and to be clear, I don't think this is going to happen anytime soon, but if something goes right in Iran, that's a completely different environment for stocks.

这突然之间就改变了整个局面，而且看起来完全取决于一个人的决定。

That suddenly changes the entire narrative in a day, and it's literally up to the decision of one guy, it seems like.

所以，再说一次，我觉得这不会发生。

So, again, I don't think it's going to happen.

说实话，我觉得这种情况会持续很长时间，但看起来投资者们压倒性地认为我们正处在一个长期的状态中。

To be honest, I think that this is going to go on for a long time, but it does seem like that is overwhelmingly what investors are pricing in, that we are in for a long-term situation.

但这意味着可能会有更多意外的上行惊喜。

But that means potentially more surprise to the upside.

我想，在你走之前，最后一个问题。

I guess, just final question before you go.

你觉得未来几个月市场会是什么样子？

What do you expect the market to look like in the next few months?

你预计接下来还会有更多上涨吗？

Are you expecting more upside going forward?

你觉得到今年年底，我们会处在什么位置？

Where do you think we'll be come, say, end of the year?

如果到年底市场没有大幅上涨，我会感到意外。

I would be surprised if markets aren't substantially higher by year-end.

不过我要补充几点。

There's a couple caveats to that I would make.

首先，如果伊朗的冲突继续拖延下去，那显然会给通胀数据带来压力。

The first is that if the conflict in Iran continues to be drug out, that obviously is going to keep pressure on the inflation numbers.

所以你说得对，这确实是个令人担忧的问题。

So you are right, that is a definite concern.

我觉得特朗普现在处境很棘手，因为伊朗知道美国的政治日程，我们美国人也都知道这个日程。

I think Trump's in a tight spot because Iran knows the political calendar, and we all in the US know the political calendar.

而且取决于众议院和参议院的情况，如果民主党拿下两院——目前预测市场显示，民主党有90%的概率拿下众议院，65%的概率拿下参议院。

And depending on what happens in the House and the Senate, if Democrats take both, and right now, poly markets show, I think, a 90% chance that Democrats take the House and a 65% chance they take the Senate.

如果真是这样，他可能更难为战争筹到资金，所以他可能会重新考虑行动的时间表。

If that happens, he may have a harder time getting funding for the war, so he may look at a little different timetable on how he wants to proceed.

所以短期内，这可能会——取决于他怎么做，我不知道他会怎么做——但如果在那边升级局势，可能会推高油价。

So near term, that could, depending on what he does, I don't know what he will do, but that could put upward pressure on oil price, depending on if he escalates things there.

所以这是一个可能导致市场下跌的变数。

So that is a wild card risk to the downside.

反过来想，如果油价回落或者局势得到解决，利率环境可能会宽松一些。

The flip side of that is that we do see a little bit easier interest rate environment if oil comes off, if there is some resolution.

我觉得投资者得做好这方面的准备，因为从历史数据来看，Ed，整个市场的总回报往往集中在短短几天内实现。

And I think investors need to be prepared for that because if you look historically, so much of the total return, Ed, comes in just a few days over the market cycles.

所以如果你不在场，就会面临风险。要知道，现在标普500指数的远期市盈率是18.5倍，而盈利增长率有30%。

And so the risk of not being in when you're trading at, I think we're now at 18 and a half times forward earnings for the S&P with 30% earnings growth.

我觉得，不投资的风险比目前看到的那些潜在风险还要大。

The risk of not being invested, I think, outweighs some of the risks we're seeing on the horizon.

所以我同意你的看法。

So I agree with you.

我们确实不能对风险掉以轻心，但市场已经为这些风险提供了足够的回报，而且我认为现在入场是个好时机。

We shouldn't be cavalier about the risks, but I think you're being paid for them, and I think it's a good time to be stepping in.

一旦局势有所缓和，我觉得这里还有上涨的空间。

And I think we'll see some upside here if we get any resolution.

好的。

All right.

约翰·莫雷是NFJ投资集团的首席投资官。

John Mowrey is Chief Investment Officer at NFJ Investment Group.

约翰，感谢你的时间。

John, appreciate your time.

不客气。

Thank you.

谢谢，埃德。

Thanks, Ed.

广告之后，投资者将大注押在民主党身上。

After the break, investors bet big on the Democrats.

想要获取更多市场洞察，欢迎订阅我的每周通讯《简单说》，网址是 edwardelson.substack.com。

And for even more markets insights, you can subscribe to my weekly newsletter, Simply Put, at edwardelson.substack.com.

本节目由雅虎财经旗下的 AlphaSpace 提供支持。

Support for the show comes from AlphaSpace by Yahoo Finance.

不用再在无数工具和标签页之间来回切换来管理你的投资组合了，Yahoo Finance 的 AlphaSpace 把你整个投资流程都整合到一个易用的平台上。

Instead of bouncing between countless tools and tabs to manage your portfolio, AlphaSpace by Yahoo Finance brings your entire investment workflow into one easy-to-use platform.

Yahoo Finance 的 AlphaSpace 利用 Yahoo Scout 驱动的助手，围绕你真正想分析的内容构建个性化视图，然后与你的投资组合同步，实现实时跟踪。

AlphaSpace by Yahoo Finance utilizes a Yahoo Scout-powered assistant to build a personalized view around exactly what you want to analyze, then syncs it with your portfolio for real-time tracking.

你可以比较多个股票代码，浏览从蜡烛图、折线图到基本面数据的一切内容，还可以叠加移动平均线、布林带、RSI、MACD 等指标。

You can compare multiple tickers, explore everything from candlestick and line charts to fundamental data, and layer in indicators like moving averages, Bollinger Bands, RSI, MACD, and more.

我的搭档 Scott Galloway 是这个平台的粉丝。

My co-host, Scott Galloway, is a fan of the platform.

你觉得它怎么样，Scott？

What did you think of it, Scott?

30 年来，我一直把 Yahoo Finance 设为我浏览财经或网页的主页。

I have been using Yahoo Finance as my homepage for finance, or for the web actually, for 30 years.

作为一个给对冲基金做过顾问、自己管理资金、并且自认为擅长

And as someone who has advised hedge funds, run my own money, prides themselves on being good at

投资的人，这在我的生活中占了很大一部分。

at investing and it takes up a big part of my life.

我觉得他们做得非常出色。

I think they do a fantastic job

你可以通过 yahoofinance.com/profg 以五折优惠体验 AlphaSpace，首年 Yahoo Finance Gold 会员费减半。

You can explore alpha space with 50% off your first year of Yahoo Finance Gold at yahoofinance.com/profg.

网址是 yahoofinance.com/profg。

That's yahoofinance.com/profg.

首年费用为239.70美元，之后每年479.40美元。

Billed as $239.70 for the first year, then $479.40 thereafter.

此优惠仅适用于美国新订阅用户。

Offer valid for new subscribers in the US.

优惠截止日期为2026年10月31日。

Offer ends October 31st, 2026.

本期节目由 Rippling 赞助播出。

Support for the show comes from Rippling.

想象一下，你刚发现你的销售团队可能完不成销售目标。

Imagine you just found out your sales team is at risk of missing quota.

不用慌，直接问 Rippling AI 就行。

No need to panic, just ask Rippling AI.

因为它基于你实时的员工和业务数据，Rippling AI 能把 Rippling 和 Salesforce 里的指标拉出来，生成一个随时能拿去开会用的仪表盘，展示配额完成率、人员编制趋势，以及各区域每月的收入与配额的对比情况。

Since it's built on your real-time people and business data, Rippling AI can pull metrics from Rippling and Salesforce into a meeting-ready dashboard showing quota attainment, headcount trajectory, and monthly revenue to quota by region.

几秒钟内，你就能清楚看到配额风险背后的原因，并在错过之前及时补救。

In seconds, you can see exactly what's behind your quota risk and fix it before it's missed.

问题解决了，行动跟上了，危机也化解了。

Question answered, action taken, crisis averted.

所以当你有重要的业务问题需要解答时，别光提交个工单然后干等几周去拿一份过时的报告。

So when you have critical business questions that need answers, don't just file a ticket and wait weeks for an outdated report.

直接说明你需要什么，让 Rippling AI 基于你实时的员工和业务数据立刻生成结果，不管是带详细图表的仪表盘，还是带有正确触发条件、规则和审批流程的自动化工作流。

Describe what you need and have Rippling AI build it instantly from your live people and business data, whether it's a dashboard with detailed charts or automated workflows with the right triggers, conditions, and approvals.

准备好掌控你的生意了吗？

Ready to rule your business?

访问 rippling.ai/markets，获取专为让你全面掌握全局并在整个组织内执行复杂操作而打造的唯一 AI 工具。

Head to rippling.ai/markets to get the only AI built to give you full visibility and take complex actions across your entire organization.

网址是 R-I-P-P-L-I-N-G.a-I/markets。

That's R-I-P-P-L-I-N-G.a-I/markets.

今天就注册，获取专属访问权限。

Sign up for exclusive access today.

你是不是已经听腻了那些哥们儿聊商业、科技和金融？

Are you tired of hearing about business, tech, and finance from the bros?

我们是老虎姐妹。

We are the Tiger Sisters.

一档顶级商业播客，来自 Vox Media 播客网络。

A top business podcast with the Vox Media Podcast Network.

老虎姐妹每周一更新，我们解读金钱、权力和爱情。

Tiger Sisters releases every Monday, and we decode money, power, and love.

谁不爱这些东西呢？

And who doesn't love all those things?

我们是互联网上的华尔街和硅谷大姐姐。

We are the Internet's Wall Street and Silicon Valley big sisters.

每周一准时收听，感受深夜姐妹夜话与董事会战略的碰撞。

Tune in every Monday for late-night sister talk meets boardroom strategy.

去YouTube、Spotify或者你平时听播客的地方找找Tiger Sisters吧。

Check out Tiger Sisters on YouTube, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

欢迎来到老虎家族。

Welcome to the Tiger fam.

欢迎来到老虎家族。

Welcome to the Tiger fam.

我们回到Prof G Markets节目。

We're back with Prof G Markets.

随着民主党在中期选举中全面获胜的可能性越来越大，美国国防股正在下跌，而医疗股则在上涨。

US defense stocks are falling, and healthcare stocks are rallying as a Democratic sweep in the midterms looks increasingly likely.

在Kalshi平台上，民主党同时赢得众议院和参议院控制的概率现在已达到63%，而7月份时这一数字仅为40%。

On Kalshi, the odds that Democrats win both the House and the Senate are now at 63%, up from 40% in July.

在同一时期，iShares美国航空航天与国防ETF下跌了16%。

Over the same period, the iShares US Aerospace and Defense ETF fell 16%.

这与今年早些时候形成鲜明对比，当时特朗普总统提议将国防开支提高到1.5万亿美元。

That is a sharp reversal from earlier this year after President Trump proposed raising defense spending to $1.5 trillion.

与此同时，标普500指数中的医疗保健板块在过去三个月上涨了9%，在指数11个板块中表现第二好。

Meanwhile, the S&P's healthcare sector is up 9% over the past three months, the second-best performance of the index's 11 sectors.

换句话说，投资者现在开始押注数十亿美元，认为民主党会赢得这场选举，这让我们不禁要问一个显而易见的问题：他们能赢吗？

In other words, investors are now starting to bet billions of dollars on the prospect that the Democrats are going to win this thing, which has us wondering an obvious question: will they?

所以，为了讨论中期选举以及民主党大获全胜的可能性，我们请到了《帕纳斯视角》的作者、同时也是《激烈观点》的联合主持人亚伦·帕纳斯。

So here to discuss the midterms and the likelihood of a Democratic sweep, we are speaking with Aaron Parnas, author of The Parnas Perspective and co-host of Raging Perspectives.

亚伦，感谢你加入我们。

Aaron, thank you for joining us.

所以国防股在下跌，大概是因为市场在定价时认为未来国防开支增加的可能性降低了。

So defense stocks are sliding, presumably because they're pricing in lower likelihood of more defense spending.

而医疗保健板块则出现了相反的情况。

We're seeing the opposite happening in healthcare.

市场预期医疗保健支出会增加。

More spending on healthcare is the assumption.

但我认为真正引人注目的是，市场基本上在告诉我们，投资者在告诉我们，民主党将会大获全胜。

But I think what is really striking here is that the markets are basically telling us, investors are telling us, Democrats are going to sweep this.

你现在看到了什么？

What are you seeing right now?

为什么现在突然在投资界普遍存在这种看法，认为民主党会赢？

Why is it that right now, suddenly there is this opinion that seems to be pervasive across the investment world, which is Democrats are going to win?

是的，现在把钱押在民主党身上是个明智的选择，原因有很多。

Yeah, and it's a smart bet to put your money on Democrats right now for a number of reasons.

第一，如果你只看整体历史趋势，民主党从一开始就占优势。

Number one, if you just look at overall historical trends, Democrats are favored from the get-go.

历史上，当白宫由共和党人掌控时，民主党在中期选举中表现更好，我们在2018年唐纳德·特朗普执政时也看到了这一点。

Historically, when you have a Republican in the White House, Democrats overperform in the midterms, and we've seen it even when Donald Trump was in the White House back in 2018.

所以这次你可能会看到类似的情况重演。

And so you could see kind of a repeat this time around.

反之亦然。

Same thing vice versa.

如果白宫是民主党人，共和党就会在中期选举中表现更好。

If you had a Democrat in the White House, Republicans would overperform in the midterms.

但今年特别不同，因为经济表现不佳。

But this year is especially different in the fact that the economy is not performing to par.

选民们基本上是看自己口袋里有多少钱来投票的，而现在他们手里的钱比18个月前少了。

And so voters kind of vote based on how much money they have in their pockets, and right now, they have less money today than they did 18 months ago.

他们买食品杂货要花更多钱，加油也要花更多钱，在很多方面都过得很艰难。

They're paying more for groceries, paying more for gas, and they are struggling in many respects.

所以这就是为什么你会看到市场在定价时倾向于民主党获胜。

And so that's why you see the markets kind of pricing in a likely Democratic win.

现在，对我来说问题不是民主党会不会赢，比如赢下众议院，而是赢多少。

Now, the question to me is not whether Democrats will win, for example, the House of Representatives, it's by how much.

我觉得现在众议院对共和党来说基本上没戏了。

I think right now the House is kind of a lost cause for Republicans.

而参议院对民主党来说将是一场更艰难的硬仗，结果谁也说不准。

Now, the Senate's going to be a tougher uphill battle for Democrats, and it's anyone's guess what'll happen.

但说到众议院，我们拭目以待吧。

But when it comes to the House of Representatives, we'll see what happens.

我觉得民主党会赢得比较轻松。

I think Democrats will win pretty handily.

看看众议院和参议院同时被拿下的概率，一月份的时候，根据Kalshi预测市场的数据，概率是30%。

Just looking at the odds of a sweep in both the House and the Senate, in January, the probability, based on the prediction markets based on Kalshi, was 30%.

现在到了63%。

Now we're at 63%.

这段时间到底发生了什么变化？

What exactly has changed in that period?

我们大概知道，但你觉得，哪些政治事件是最关键的，把那个数字推高了？

We kind of know, but what have been, in your view, the most important political events that have ratcheted that number up?

战争。

The war.

伊朗的战争就是那个原因。

The war in Iran is that.

这是最重要的事情，也是影响11月中期选举的关键。

That is the most important thing, and that is what is impacting the November midterms.

如果我们没有和伊朗开战，通胀可能还会有点顽固，油价可能还会保持在平均每加仑3美元左右，但最终你不会看到今天这么高的价格。我认为正是这一点，把局势推向了民主党有可能赢得参议院的情况。

If we never went to war with Iran, you may have had inflation remain a little stubborn and gas prices remain relatively, I don't know, $3 a gallon on average, but ultimately, you would not have seen the high prices that we're seeing today, and I think that's really what swung this into a situation where Democrats could potentially win the Senate.

我觉得如果你问任何一位民主党策略师，大概四个月或五个月前，问他们民主党有没有机会赢得美国参议院，他们会看着你笑，因为根据选区分布，民主党必须赢得像爱荷华、得克萨斯这样的州，而这些州在正常选举年对他们来说都是硬仗。

I think if you asked any Democratic strategist, what, four months ago, five months ago, whether Democrats had any chance at winning the United States Senate, they would've looked at you and laughed at you, just given what the map is like, because Democrats would have to win states like Iowa, Texas, which are uphill battles for them in normal election years.

但现在，情况完全不同了。

But now, it's a completely different ballgame.

你觉得现在民主党的策略是什么？

When you think about the Democratic strategy at this point, what is the strategy?

比如，看看赢得众议院的概率，是不是有90%？

Just looking at the odds of winning the House, for example, is it 90%?

看起来大家都觉得这几乎是板上钉钉的事。

It seems like people think that this is pretty much a sure thing.

他们打算怎么确保万无一失，又可能在什么情况下搞砸呢？

How are they going to make it a sure thing, and in what world could they screw that up?

所以我觉得，而且我跟每个我聊过的民主党人都这么说，现在民主党最好的策略就是别搞什么议程，别把事情搞砸。

So I think, and I give this advice to every single Democrat that I talk to, right now, the best opportunity for Democrats is to actually not have an agenda, to not screw it up.

因为民主党最出名的就是擅长输掉选举。

Because what Democrats are really notoriously good at is losing elections.

他们特别会输选举。

They know how to lose an election really well.

所以现在离选举还有两周，我觉得他们最好的办法就是保持安静，闭嘴，让美国总统去说话。

And so right now, with two weeks to go, I think their best bet is to stay quiet, shut up, and let the president of the United States do the talking.

他说得越多，民调就越往下掉。

The more he talks, the more polls slide.

所以让他多说，让他去深红地区，去讲他多欣赏男人的身材，讲他如何天天防止我们被核弹炸。

And so let him talk more, let him go to deep red areas and talk about how he admires men's bodies and how he is preventing us from getting nuked every other day.

让他说。

Let him talk.

他说得越多，对他越不利。

The more he talks, the worse it is for him.

现在转到共和党这边，他们的策略是什么？

Just switching over to the Republicans now, what is the Republican strategy?

他们认为要赢得这场选举需要什么条件，而你觉得又需要什么？

What do they think it's going to take in order to win this thing, and what would it take, in your view?

听着，我觉得现在对共和党来说，关键是要做取舍，对吧？

Listen, I think for Republicans right now, it's about triaging, right?

就像手术台上有个大出血的病人，你得想办法保住哪个部位。

You have a patient on the table who's hemorrhaging, and so you're trying to figure out what body part you can save.

他们能保住的是美国参议院。

Where they can save is the United States Senate.

他们有可能保住像得克萨斯州、爱荷华州、阿拉斯加这样的州。

They can save a state like Texas, potentially, a state like Iowa, a state like Alaska.

他们有可能保住参议院，所以民主党赢并不是板上钉钉的事。

They can potentially keep the United States Senate, so it's not a foregone conclusion by any respect that Democrats will win.

所以要把所有钱都砸进参议院的竞选里，然后祈祷能保住其中一个议院。

So that's where you pump all the money in, is into these Senate races, and you hope and pray that you keep one of the chambers.

在众议院，关键是要控制住席位流失。

In the House, it's all about limiting the seats you lose.

最终，我觉得对他们来说，现在最好的情况就是只输掉10个席位，对吧？

Ultimately, I think for them, their best bet right now is a 10-seat minority, right?

民主党能多拿下10个席位，形成多数。

Democrats pick up enough to have a 10-seat majority.

这差不多就是民主党的底线了。

That's about where the floor is for Democrats.

我觉得最高可能拿到50到60个席位。

I think the high is anywhere from 50 to 60 seats.

所以，就是先止血。

And so just stop the bleeding.

这就是共和党现在应该关注的重点。

That's what Republicans should be looking at right now.

就他们的宣传策略而言，你觉得特朗普会在其中扮演多大角色，还是说基本不会涉及？

Just in terms of their messaging, to what extent do you think it will or will not involve Trump?

因为他现在非常不受欢迎。

Because he is so unpopular right now.

看起来和他扯上关系有点麻烦，但同时，他已经成了共和党的标志。

It seems like he's sort of toxic to associate with, but at the same time, he has become the brand of the Republican Party.

他会在那些竞选活动中扮演多大的角色呢？

To what extent will he play a role in some of those campaigns?

是的，我跟你说实话。

Yeah, I'm going to be honest with you.

这不会有什么影响。

It won't matter.

我们离选举日只有两周了。

We are two weeks away from election day.

已经有数百万张选票被统计和投出了。

There have been millions of ballots already counted and cast.

特朗普或共和党人真的做不了什么，能在任何竞选中把支持率改变超过一两个百分点。

There's really nothing that Trump or Republicans can do that'll move the needle more than one or two points in any race.

所以很多结果其实已经定型了。

So a lot of the results are really baked in.

现在再怎么调整宣传策略，也基本不会带来什么大的变化了。因为到了这个阶段，还没决定好投谁的选民已经寥寥无几。

Any messaging changes that they're going to implement now won't really radically change much because, at this point, if you're not a decided voter, there are very few people that are undecided at this point.

现在的关键问题不是大家会怎么选，而是大家会不会去投票。

The only question is whether people are going to turn out or not, not whether they're going to decide or not.

你觉得有哪些关键选战是你特别关注的？哪些对你来说尤其重要？

What are some of the key races that you're going to keep an eye on that you think will be particularly important?

我觉得弗吉尼亚州——大家平时很少提到这一点，但在我看来，它在很多选举中都是风向标。

Well, I think Virginia is-- And people never talk about this, but I think Virginia is always the bellwether in many of these elections.

它是投票站关门最早的州。

It's the state where polls close first.

每次看弗吉尼亚州的选情，你总能发现共和党人一开始投票热情高，然后民主党人后来居上。

And whenever you look at Virginia, you always see Republican turnout push up at the beginning and then Democrats surge late.

今年，民主党人的投票热情简直爆棚。

This year, Democratic turnout right now is through the roof.

如果民主党在弗吉尼亚这样的州以10、15、20个百分点的优势表现超常，这正是我们目前的趋势，那可能为全国范围内的巨大浪潮奠定基础。

If Democrats are overperforming in a state like Virginia by 10, 15, 20 points, which is what we're on track for, that could set the stage for a massive wave across the country.

但如果东部时间晚上7点投票结束后一小时，弗吉尼亚仍然非常胶着，而且一些你认为民主党可能翻盘的选区没有翻盘，那就表明这个国家可能还没有准备好迎接许多人预测的激进左转。

But if, after an hour of polls closing at 7:00 PM Eastern Time, Virginia is still very tight, and some of these races where you thought Democrats could flip, they aren't, then it'll be a sign that maybe this country is not ready for a radical shift to the left, as many people predict.

你对这次选举的预测是什么？你认为众议院和参议院实际会发生什么？

Your predictions for this election, what do you think will actually happen both in the House and the Senate?

还有那个文化层面的问题：这个党将走向何方？

And that sort of cultural question of where is this party headed?

国家希望民主党走向何方？

Where does the country want the Democratic Party to head?

你对我们将看到的情况有什么预测？

Your predictions on what we'll see.

所以我觉得如果要预测的话，选举日之后哈基姆·杰弗里斯将成为众议院议长。

So I think if I had to predict, Hakeem Jeffries will become Speaker of the House after election day.

民主党可能会在众议院赢得大约30到35个席位，给他一个舒适的议长多数优势。

Democrats will probably win about 30 to 35 seats in the House of Representatives to give him a comfortable margin as Speaker.

我认为美国参议院的竞争会激烈得多，我预测会打成50比50，共和党保住参议院，因为有些州对民主党来说确实很难。

I think the United States Senate will be a lot closer, and I predict a 50/50 split with Republicans keeping the United States Senate, just given how tough some of these states are for Democrats.

不过这也很难说，但我觉得参议院这场仗要难打得多。

But it's anyone's guess, but I think the Senate is a much more uphill battle.

亚伦·帕纳斯是《帕纳斯视角》的作者，也是《激烈观点》的联合主持人。

Aaron Parnas is author of The Parnas Perspective, co-host of Raging Perspectives.

亚伦，一直很感谢你。

Aaron, always appreciate it.

非常感谢。

Thank you so much.

谢谢你的邀请。

Thanks for having me.

伊丽莎白·霍姆斯的纪录片上映已经三天了，这部电影已经大获成功。

It's been three days since the Elizabeth Holmes documentary came out, and the film is already a roaring success.

内森·菲尔德执导的《你能看到一切》首周末票房收入超过5000万美元，这是20多年来纪录片票房最高的开画成绩。

Nathan Fielder's You Can See Everything generated more than $50 million in ticket sales on its opening weekend, which makes it the largest box office opening for a documentary in more than 20 years.

这部电影的发行方A24称其为“21世纪最大规模的限量上映之一”，这确实没错。

The film's distributor, A24, called it, quote, "One of the largest limited release openings of the 21st century," which is true.

这部电影在不到900家影院上映，尽管如此，它还是打破了好几项纪录。

The film was screened in fewer than 900 theaters, and despite that, it still broke several records.

现在，它的成功很大程度上归功于电影本身的质量。

Now, much of its success is a testament to the quality of the film itself.

在线影评聚合网站将其评为史上最佳电影之一，烂番茄评分99%，Letterboxd评分4.8。

Online review aggregators rank it as one of the best movies ever, with a 99% score on Rotten Tomatoes and a 4.8 on Letterboxd.

顺便说一句，我周末看了这部电影，虽然我不认为它是史上最佳，但我确实觉得它非常不错。

By the way, I saw it over the weekend, and while I don't think that it's one of the best movies of all time, I do think that it was very good.

但这部电影的成功不仅说明了电影本身，也说明了我们所处的文化时刻。

But the film's success also tells you something not just about the movie, but also about the cultural moment in which we live.

那就是，如今，不同于历史上任何时期，我们对科技和创业相关的神话和人物着迷。

And that is that today, unlike any time in history, we are fascinated by the mythology and the characters associated with technology and entrepreneurship.

从伊丽莎白·霍姆斯到埃隆·马斯克，科技创始人已经成为我们现代时代的超级名人。

From Elizabeth Holmes to Elon Musk, tech founders have become the uber celebrities of our modern age.