为何难以预知伊朗的下一步走向

当你想到注意力缺陷多动障碍（ADHD）患者时，你会想到谁？

When you think of someone with ADHD, who comes to mind?

是位三十多岁的女性吗？

Is it a woman in her thirties?

就是一种持续不断的感觉，觉得自己太过分了，你知道的，太活跃、太吵闹，任何方面都太过了。

Just this constant feeling of being too much, you know, too kinetic, too loud, all of the too anything.

而且真的觉得别人手里都有一本社交规则手册，而我却从来没拿到过。

And just really feeling like people got some kind of social rule book that I never got.

ADHD的面貌正在改变。

The changing face of ADHD.

这就是本周的《给我解释一下》。

That's this week on Explain It To Me.

新集数每周日上线，你收听播客的任何平台都能找到。

New episodes, Sundays, wherever you get your podcasts.

AI泡沫什么时候会破裂？

When is the AI bubble gonna burst?

你如何让自己的工作不受AI影响？

How do you AI proof your job?

大学应该如何应对AI，并为学生适应变化的就业市场做准备？

How should colleges handle AI and prepare students for a shifting job market?

我是亨利·布洛盖特，在我的节目《解决方案》中，我一直在与那些拥有实际答案的专家探讨这些问题及其他相关内容。

I'm Henry Blodgett, and on my show Solutions, I've been exploring all of those questions and more with experts who have actual answers.

我们已经听够了关于问题的讨论。

We hear enough about our problems.

让我们来解决它们吧。

Let's solve them.

关注亨利·布洛盖特的《解决方案》。

Follow Solutions with Henry Blodgett.

欢迎来到《激进的中间派》。

Welcome, Raging Moderates.

我是斯科特·加洛韦。

I'm Scott Galloway.

我是杰西卡·塔罗夫。

And I'm Jessica Tarlov.

如果你还没有的话，请务必订阅我们的YouTube频道，以获取最新动态。

If you haven't already, please make sure to subscribe to our YouTube page to get up to date coverage on everything happening.

今天，我们再次邀请到退役的美国

Today, we're joined again by retired U.

海

S.

军上将詹姆斯·斯塔夫里迪斯，帮助我们解读本周末中东地区的最新发展。

Navy admiral James Stavridis to help us make sense of developments in The Middle East over the weekend.

欢迎再次做客我们的节目，上将。

Welcome back to the show, admiral.

很高兴能与你们交流。

Good to be with you.

我无法想象你有多忙，所以我们直接进入正题。

So I can't imagine how how in demand you are, so we'll bust right into it.

目前情况如下。

Here's where things stand.

伊朗最高领袖在以色列的空袭后已去世。

Iran's supreme leader is now dead following U.

美国。

S.

以色列的空袭。

Israeli strikes.

德黑兰已成立过渡委员会，并誓言进行猛烈报复。

Tehran has installed a transitional council and is vowing fierce retaliation.

至少有三名美国。

At least three U.

美国。

S.

士兵丧生。

Troops have been killed.

以色列正在打击德黑兰的核心地区，而伊朗的导弹则瞄准了美国的基地和海湾盟友。

Israel is hitting the heart of Tehran while Iranian missiles target U.

美。

S.

基地和海湾盟友。

Bases and Gulf allies.

石油运输受阻，空域正在关闭。

Oil flows are disrupted and airspace is closing.

将军，从军事角度来看，这里有没有明确的退出途径，还是我们正处在中东长期战争的初期阶段？

Admiral, from a military standpoint, is there a clear off ramp here, or are we looking at the very early stages of a longer war in The Middle East?

我稍后回答这个问题，但你刚才提到从军事角度看，我想请所有人，无论你身处政治光谱的哪一端，无论你对这次行动持何看法，都为那些服役中的将士们祈祷。

I'll answer that in one moment, but you said, from a military standpoint, I'd just ask everybody, hold those servicemen and women in your hearts wherever you are on the political spectrum and whatever you think about this operation.

斯科特，目前未来很难预测，但我快速给你三个可能的情景。

Scott, I'd say the future is pretty hard to predict at the moment, but I'll give you three scenarios very quickly.

第一个是乐观的情景。

First one is the happy scenario.

这将是伊朗人民起义并推翻毛拉和革命卫队的情况。

This would be where the people of Iran rise up and overthrow the mullahs, the revolutionary guard.

我认为，遗憾的是，这种可能性最多只有30%，但并非不可能。

I think sadly that's a 30% chance at best, but not impossible.

其余的70%可以分为两种情景。

The other 70% breaks into two scenarios.

第一种，你可以把它看作是伊朗3.0版本。

One, you can kind of think of it as Iran three point o.

如果伊朗1.0是巴列维王朝时期，而现在的伊朗2.0是毛拉统治时期，那么会不会出现一个伊朗3.0，它保留了部分现有政府架构，但行为更加温和理性？

If Iran one point o was under the shah and now Iran two point o has been under the mullahs, could there be an Iran three point o that includes some remnants of this government but that behaves in a more moderate, sensible fashion?

而在那70%的另一端，则是黑暗的情景：德黑兰的阿亚图拉们硬撑到底，承受轰炸，地面部队不会介入，反而对民众实施更严厉的镇压。

And then there's kind of the dark end of the spectrum in that 70% tranche, and that's that Tehmula, Ayatollah, toughs it out, takes the bombing, no boots on the ground are coming, and they repress the populace even worse.

这就是我所看到的未来图景。

So there's a snapshot of the future as I see it.

在克林顿女士竞选期间，你经常被提及为潜在的副总统人选。

So you were often mentioned as a potential VP candidate for Secretary Clinton during her run.

假设你身处那个情境小组，基于你的军事背景，被要求在七十二小时内，或者在我们在此地或该地区集结军力和装备时，向总统提供建议。

Put yourself, if you can, in the, you know, the situation group where you've been asked, based on your military background, to give the president, you know, seventy two hours before or as we were building up armaments here or hardware in the region.

请谈谈你如何评估这一行动的潜在收益与风险，以及你最终会给出什么建议。

Give us a sense how you would outline the risk to the upside and the downside and ultimately what your recommendation would have been around this.

说到你的节目《激进温和派》，是的，我确实被希拉里作为副总统候选人进行过审查。

Well, to the point of your show, Raging Moderates, yes, I was vetted for VP by Hillary.

特朗普政府也曾向我提供过内阁职位。

I was also offered a cabinet post by the Trump administration.

所以我见识过这两方面的做法。

So I've kind of seen both sides of this.

我认为，在这种情况下，如果我担任联合参谋长主席、国家安全顾问或国家情报总监，无论属于哪一方，我都会首先指出：这里存在巨大的潜在收益。

I think in this situation room, had I been, let's say, the chairman of the joint chiefs or the national security adviser or the director of national intelligence for either side, I would have started with, there's big upside here.

如果我们能——尽管这是一个很大的假设——瓦解伊朗政权，引入更好的‘伊朗3.0’，那收益将是巨大的。

If we can, and it's a big if, but if we can crack the Iranian regime and bring in better Iran three point o, enormous upside.

这是一个拥有九千万人口、石油和天然气资源丰富、国民受教育程度高、文明历史可追溯至波斯帝国的国家，把这样一个实体拉入国际社会，意义非凡。

Here's a country of 90,000,000 people, wealthy with oil and gas, highly educated population, long civilizational track going back to the Persian Empire to pull that entity into the world.

巨大的好处。

Big upside.

但这是坏处。

But here's the downside.

坏处在于，仅靠空中力量和地面部队很难推翻一个政权。

The downside is it's very hard to change a regime strictly with air power, boots on the ground.

因此，总统女士或总统先生，您选一个。

And therefore, madam president or mister president, take your pick.

我的建议是，花更多时间准备战场，为伊朗人民的政权更迭创造条件。

My advice would be, let's spend more time prepping the battlefield and preparing the people of Iran for an overthrow scenario.

我觉得这还没有发生。

I don't feel that has happened.

所以我的建议是，争取这个目标是值得的，但我们不能仅仅靠向德黑兰扔炸弹来实现。

So my advice would have been, it's worth it to go after this prize, but we've gotta do it beyond simply throwing bombs into Tehran.

最后我想问的是，让我回到五角大楼，与中情局和摩萨德一起制定一个计划，在我们发射导弹之前先做好战场准备。

And the bottom line question I would end with is, let me go back to the Pentagon and build a plan with the CIA, with the Mossad that preps the battlefield before we start launching the missiles.

那会是我的建议。

That would have been my advice.

在我转交给杰西之前，最后一个问题是。

And last question before I throw it over to Jess.

这里的软实力部分，我认为就目前政府对这次袭击的应对方式而言，最大的软肋在于，我感觉并不完全清晰。

The soft tissue here, I think, so far in terms of the administration's approach to this attack or, in my opinion, the biggest region of soft tissue, is it doesn't feel entirely clear to me.

我记得，那是所谓的鲍威尔主义，即你必须有明确的目标。

I remember, what was it, the Powell doctrine, that you have to have stated objectives.

我感觉特朗普政府在此次行动的目标上似乎有些混乱。

And it feels as if there's some confusion coming out of the Trump administration around what it is the objectives are here.

你同意这一点吗？

Would you agree with that?

你认为呢？

And what do you think?

如果你在建议他们如何明确表达这些目标，你会说些什么？

If you were advising them on how to articulate some objectives, what would they be?

好吧，现在我要换一个角色，以我好朋友、特朗普总统的幕僚长苏西·怀尔斯的身份来谈一谈。

Well, here, I'm gonna put on a different hat, and I'm gonna take the hat of my good friend, the chief of staff to president Trump, Susie Wiles.

苏西·怀尔斯和这位同样来自佛罗里达的同胞明白，你必须在发射战斧导弹之前，先把解释传达出去。

Susie Wiles and fellow native Floridian understands that you have got to get the explanation out there before you start launching the Tomahawk missiles.

而我们在发射战斧导弹方面确实非常在行。

And we are really good at launching the Tomahawk missiles.

但这一次，我们还没有把理念传达出去。

What we haven't done in this instant is launch the ideas.

所以，是的，这是一个弱点。

So, yeah, it's a weakness.

如果允许我提及我的希腊血统，这简直就是阿喀琉斯之踵。

And if you'll permit me my Greek heritage, it's an Achilles heel.

但我想用我所听到的目标来结束我的发言。

But I'll I'll close with what I think the objectives as I've heard them are.

推翻政权，支持抗议者，消除伊朗的弹道导弹威胁，以及其核计划中残存的部分。

Overthrow the regime, support the protesters, take down Iran's threat from ballistic missiles and whatever is left of their nuclear program.

我认为，这就是三个目标。

Those, I think, are the three objectives.

我曾在不同时间听到过对这些目标不同程度的阐述。

I've heard them articulated in varying degrees at different times.

就在我们剪辑这个播客时，总统即将出来向美国人民发表讲话。

The president, as we're cutting this podcast, is about to come on and speak to the American people.

我希望他能明确说明，这三个目标中是哪一个，还是全部？

I hope that he will clearly articulate which of those three, or is it all three?

优先顺序是什么？计划又是什么？

What's the priority order, and what's the plan?

特斯？

Tess?

是的。

Yeah.

我很高兴你谈到了目前存在的混乱情况。

I'm glad that you talked about the confusion, I guess, that's going on right now.

我听了佩特·海格塞斯部长的讲话，他并没有提供太多清晰的信息，只是说——总统似乎在给所有记者的电话中也重复了这一点——他愿意派地面部队，并且会有更多的美国士兵牺牲，但为了这个我们仍不完全理解的所谓目标，这一切都是值得的。

I was listening to secretary Pete Hegseth speak, and he didn't offer a ton of clarity except saying, which the president echoed in calls, it seems, to all the reporters that there are out there, that he's open to boots on the ground and more American lives are going to be lost, but it's worth it for this proverbial goal that we still don't fully understand.

我想问你一下，我理解的介入的两个主要前提是什么。

I wanted to ask you about the two main predicates that I understood as the rationale for going in.

首先，伊朗正在走向核武器，并且这一进程即将完成，尽管我们几个月前刚刚实施了‘午夜锤’行动，本应彻底摧毁他们的核计划。

So first, that Iran is on their way to a nuclear weapon and that that's happening soon, even though we had Operation Midnight Hammer just months ago, which was supposed to have eradicated their program.

其次，无论以色列做什么，伊朗都会发动袭击。

And then the second, that there was a strike coming from Iran irrespective of what Israel did.

现在，五角大楼一直在向记者简报，并已否定了这两个前提。

Now, the Pentagon has been briefing reporters, and they have refuted those predicates.

因此，我们面临的并不是这些情景。

So those are not the scenarios we were facing.

鉴于这一点，你认为现在采取行动的真正理由是什么？

What do you see in light of that as the rationale for doing this right now?

我经常被问到这个问题，对此有两个答案。

I'm asked this question constantly, and there are two answers to it.

第一，这个播客里的任何人都无法接触到情报。

The first is nobody on this podcast has access to the intelligence.

所以我们只能依赖国会，而国会本应行使监督职责，但显然目前并未就你提出的这些实际问题得到详细简报。

So here we've gotta depend on Congress, which is supposed to be exercising oversight and evidently at this moment has not been briefed in real detail on the very pragmatic questions you're raising.

所以一个答案是，没有接触情报，我真的不知道。

So one answer would be, I just don't know without access to the intelligence.

然而，我认为一个明智的观察者会说，这其实是刚才我和斯科特讨论过的那些目标的混合体。

However, I think a sensible observer would say it's kind of an amalgamation of the goals that we talked about a moment ago, Scott and I did.

这或许是海市蜃楼，但也可能真的发生——让伊朗民众走上街头，推翻并终结这个腐败的神权政体。

It's the perhaps chimera, but perhaps it could actually happen, pull the Iranian population into the streets to overthrow and end this rotten theocracy.

我认为第二点是，趁早扼杀任何让核计划像凤凰涅槃般重生的希望。

I think number two, snip in the bud any hope of a nuclear program kind of regenerating like the Phoenix coming back.

但更现实地说，从威胁角度出发，打击那些弹道导弹才是第二点。

But I think more realistically in terms of threat going after those ballistic missiles, that's kind of point two.

我认为第三点，坦白讲，是那些抗议者为何选择现在行动的原因。

And I think point three, frankly, is the protesters in the why now category.

因为随着我们逐渐远离那场造成三万人死亡的惨剧，这个时机可能会过去。

Because as we get away from the horrific 30,000 killed, the moment could pass.

所以这件事具有时间上的紧迫性。

And so there's a temporal quality to this.

当你把这三点结合起来，我认为可以勾勒出一个合理的论点。

When you put all three of those together, I think you can sketch out a reasonable case.

我正等待更多情报被公之于众。

I'm waiting to see more intelligence revealed to the public.

我希望这些情报能尽快公布。

I hope that that's coming.

我只是想提一下特朗普总统对福克斯电视台的布雷特·贝耶所说的一句话，他说他们遵循的模式是委内瑞拉发生的情况。

I just wanted to note one of the comments that President Trump made to Bret Baier from Fox where he said that the model that they're following is what happened in Venezuela.

但这对我来说感觉非常不同。

And that feels very different to me.

我的意思是，尼古拉斯·马杜罗就在我这里，离我只有几英里远，而我正跟你说话。

I mean, Nicolas Maduro is just a couple miles away from me here, as I sit here talking to you.

我们知道谁会接替权力，就是德尔西·罗德里格斯，而且当时有一个计划。

And we knew exactly who would be taking over and Delsy Rodriguez, and there was a plan.

当然也与玛丽亚·马查多进行过交谈。

Also talks obviously with Maria Machado.

你觉得特朗普总统做出这种比较怎么看？

What do you think of the fact that president Trump is making that comparison?

我认为这是一个错误。

I think it's a mistake.

我认为这两种情况完全不同。

I think the two scenarios are utterly different.

在我看来，要在伊朗找到下一梯队的人物非常非常困难。

And the idea that you could find a kind of next tier down in Iran seems very, very challenging to me.

部分原因在于，神权信仰的网络在伊朗政治高层中根深蒂固。

Part of this is because that web of theocratic belief is woven very deeply into the senior parts of the body politic in Iran.

第二，伊朗的国土面积比委内瑞拉大得多，即便委内瑞拉本身也是一个大国，但伊朗的人口和规模是它的两到三倍。

Number two, Iran is just a massive country even compared to Venezuela, which is a big country, but it's double, triple in both population size and scale.

第三，我认为在当前结构顶层的这些人中，找到一条走向温和的道路的可能性非常低。

And then number three, the chances of finding a path to moderation, I think are very low with the individuals at the top of the structure.

所以我认为这种比较并不恰当。

So I don't think it's a very good comparison.

我再补充第四点：至少在委内瑞拉，我们可以派像马尔科·卢比奥这样精通西班牙语的人去那里。

I'll throw in a fourth, which is at least with Venezuela, we can send someone down there like a Marco Rubio, fluent Spanish speaker.

我们了解这个地区。

We know the region.

我们与委内瑞拉几十年、甚至几个世纪以来都保持着密切联系。

We've been interconnected with Venezuela for decades, centuries, really.

它们和我们一样，是美洲最早独立的国家之一。

They were one of the first independent countries along with ours in The Americas.

我们对委内瑞拉有很多深入的了解。

There's a lot there that we understand about Venezuela.

但对于伊朗，我们就没那么了解了。

Iran, not so much.

好的。

Okay.

我们短暂休息一下。

Let's take a quick break.

请继续关注。

Stay with us.

你好。

Hi.

我是卡拉·斯威舍。

This is Kara Swisher.

本周在我的播客《与卡拉·斯威舍同行》中，我采访了加利福尼亚州州长加文·纽森。

And this week on my podcast, on with Kara Swisher, I talked to California governor Gavin Newsom.

尽管他尚未正式宣布参选总统，但一直在暗示这一点。

While he hasn't officially announced to run for president yet, he's telegraphing it all the time.

真让人疲惫。

Exhausting.

他最近还出了一本新书，这正是你竞选总统时会做的事。

He's also got a new book out, which is what you do when you're running for president.

这本书叫《急躁的年轻男子》。

It's called young man in a hurry.

我最近在旧金山对他进行了现场采访。

I recently interviewed him live in San Francisco.

听听看。

Have a listen.

民主党经常面临的问题是我们显得软弱，我们必须变得更强大、更果断。

The problem with the democratic party so often is we appear weak, And we've gotta be stronger, and we've gotta be more assertive.

因此，我认为这就是这个时代所需要的精神。

And so that's, you know, it's the spirit I think that is required of this moment.

我从一百万年前——准确说是百万次发胶使用之前——就认识加文·纽森了，他是一位非常有趣且富有魅力的政治家。

I've known Gavin Newsom since he was mayor of San Francisco a million years ago, a million hair gels ago, and he's a really interesting and compelling politician.

他职业生涯中做过很多事情。

He's done a lot of things in his career.

这次竞选总统——这必将发生——是最引人注目的之一。

And this one, this run for presidency, which is going to happen, is among the most interesting.

你可以在任何获取播客的地方以及YouTube上找到完整的对话。

You can find a full conversation wherever you get your podcast and on YouTube, obviously.

别忘了关注并订阅《与卡拉·斯威舍尔同行》，获取更多内容。

Be sure to follow and subscribe to on with Kara Swisher for more.

所以大家都知道我们的政治是分裂的。

So everyone knows our politics are divided.

存在着左右之分，以及年龄、性别或种族上的分歧。

There's left versus right and dividing lines on age, gender, or race.

但也许我们政治上最大的分裂根本不是关于身份的。

But maybe our biggest divide in our politics isn't about identity at all.

而是建制派与局外人之间的对立。

It's insiders versus outsiders.

至少，国会议员罗·康纳会这么认为。

At least, that's what congressman Roe Conner would say.

真正的问题是美国存在两种司法体系。

The real issue is two tiers of justice in America.

真正的问题是那些拥有权力和财富的人利用它们凌驾于法律之上，逃避调查甚至起诉。

The real issue is people with power and wealth using it, to be above the law and escape even investigation or prosecution.

最近几个月，随着Epstein文件和人工智能等问题的出现，精英阶层与其他人的对立变得更加明显。

And it's only gotten more noticeable in recent months as issues like the Epstein files and artificial intelligence have seemed to pit the elites against everybody else.

加州国会议员罗·坎纳直面Epstein阶层。

California congressman Ro Khanna takes on the Epstein class.

《今日解析》每天工作日都在你的信息流中更新，现在周六也有更新了。

Today Explained in your feed every weekday and now on Saturdays too.

欢迎回来。

Welcome back.

有一个情景让我觉得。

Is there a scenario it strikes me.

我提出两个观点，你来回应。

I'll make two theses and you respond.

第一，我认为美国公众没有耐心或意愿去打一场长时间的地面战争，需要派兵进驻。

One, I don't see the American public having the patience or the will for an extended ground war, boots on the ground.

我同意。

And I agree.

军事历史告诉我们，仅靠空中打击很难实现对政府或治理结构的可持续改变，最终还是必须派兵进驻地面。

Military history shows us it is very hard to accomplish any sort of sustainable change in government or governing from the air, that at some point, you do have to have boots on the ground.

而我的感觉是，政府希望地面的推动力来自伊朗民众，他们一直在等待某种空中支援，从而能够真正推动地面变革，成为自己的地面力量。

And my sense is the administration is hoping that the boots on the ground will be the Iranian public, that they'll affect the change, that they were waiting for some air cover, literally, and that they would, in fact, foment change on the ground or be their own boots on the ground.

假设这种情况没有发生。

Say that does not happen.

据我了解，伊朗革命卫队有15万人，他们深度融入了伊朗经济。

There's 150,000, my understanding, as members of the IRGC, and they're deeply integrated into the economy.

所以，这并不是简单地接管白宫或类似机构，就能让一切在一夜之间改变。

So it's just not taking over the White House or whatever the equivalent is and everything changes overnight.

因此，假设伊朗革命卫队以某种形式幸存下来。

So assume that they do the IRGC does survive in some form.

有没有可能通过某种方式削弱他们的资产，包括海军？

Is there a potential off ramp to diminishing their assets, including the Navy?

我很想听听你对下一步行动的看法，即如何削弱或瘫痪他们的海军能力——据我了解，他们的海军实力相当强大，你可以这么说，

And I'd love to hear what you think the next stage is in terms of decapitating or neutering their naval capabilities, which my understanding is pretty formidable, where you could say, okay.

我们现在掌握了制空权。

We now control the air.

我们现在掌握了制海权。

We now control the sea.

他们不会再干扰霍尔木兹海峡。

They're not going to disrupt the Strait Of Hormuz.

他们已经没有能力制造过去那种程度的破坏了。

They have no real power to wreak the type of havoc they've wreaked in the past.

但说实话，我们已经撤了。

But we're quite frankly, we're out of here.

坦白说，这值了——我们原本认为他们的实力在七到八分之间，结果发现其实只有四分，最终把他们压到了一到两分。

And it was worth it to just, quite frankly, take them from on a scale of one to 10, we thought they were at a seven or eight, ends up they were at a four, take them down to a one or a two.

这是一个潜在的提议吗，安培？

Is that a potential offer, Ampere?

是的，确实是。

Yes, it is.

在我们谈这个之前，让我们先花一点时间讨论一下地面部队这部分，也就是民众。

Before we get there, let's stay for just a moment on the boots on the ground piece of this being the population.

这不会是士兵。

It won't be boots.

这会是普通人，穿着拖鞋、人字拖、凉鞋、运动鞋的勇敢民众，如果他们有勇气站出来，愿上帝保佑他们。

It'll be people, brave people in slippers, flip flops, in sandals, in sneakers, and God bless them if they have the courage to come forward.

问题是，大约一个月前他们试过一次，三万人被击倒了，而且说实话，那些都是先锋部队。

The problem is they tried that about a month ago, 30,000 of them shot down, and let's face it, those were the shock troops.

那些是最有激情、最坚定、愿意挺身而出冒生命危险的人，据所有报告，三万人被击倒了。

Those were the ones who are most passionate, most committed, willing to get out and risk their lives, and 30,000 of them by all accounts were shot down.

所以，回到我的建议：如果你打算把他们送上街头，又希望这不要变成天安门广场，而是真正成为法国大革命，你就必须远远更充分地准备这一战场。

So, back to my advice here, if you're gonna send them into the street and you want this not to be Tiananmen Square, but instead to actually be the French Revolution, you have got to prep that part of the battlefield far, far better.

所以，关于你的观点，斯科特，我同意，这正是我刚才所说的伊朗3.0版本，它会是什么样子？

So now, to your thesis, Scott, I agree with that, and this is what I called a moment ago, Iran three point zero, what's it gonna look like?

它可能是一个如你所说被削弱、丧失作恶能力的政权。

It could be a regime that is neutered, as you say, and diminished in its capability to conduct mischief.

然后看第一段，随着时间推移，人民可以站出来。

And then see paragraph one, over time, the people can step in.

在我的职业生涯中，我能想到两次人民站出来的时刻。

I can think of two times that people have stepped in in my career.

一次是1999年的巴尔干地区，斯科特，你和我都记得这件事。

One was the Balkans where we did in 1999, Scott, you and I can remember this.

是的。

Yeah.

我们轰炸了贝尔格莱德。

We bombed Belgrade.

我发射了战斧导弹。

I launched Tomahawk missiles.

每个人都非常投入。

Everyone was very engaged.

没有美国。

No U.

S。

S.

地面部队。

Boots on the ground.

米洛舍维奇随后被他的人民推翻，最终死在海牙国际刑事法院的监狱牢房里。

Milosevic then overthrown by his people and ended up dying in a jail cell in The Hague at the International Criminal Court.

第二个是利比亚，2011年。

Second one, Libya, 2011.

不久之前，我负责指挥了那次行动。

Not that long ago, I commanded that mission.

我们发动了两万五千次作战飞行，打击了全国六千个目标，人民奋起反抗。

We launched 25,000 combat sorties, serviced 6,000 targets all over the country, and the people rose up.

利比亚的情况大不相同。

Big difference in Libya.

他们有武器。

They had weapons.

他们有枪。

They had guns.

他们接受过一定程度的训练。

They had some level of training.

伊朗人民有机会，但我觉得大概只有30%。

The people of Iran have a shot, but again, I think it's probably 30%.

我们需要做更多准备。

We need to do more to prepare.

那结局会怎样呢？

So how's it gonna end?

就像我的朋友戴夫·彼得雷乌斯常说的：告诉我这会怎么收场。

As my friend Dave Petraeli would say, tell me how this ends.

我认为你的设想可能是最有可能的。

I think your scenario is probably the most likely.

我们会彻底摧毁他们的作战能力。

We end up smashing away their capability.

我们会剥夺他们的海军力量。

We will take away their navy.

我们会消除他们在霍尔木兹海峡布雷的能力，摧毁他们的弹道导弹，并彻底粉碎其残存的核计划。

We'll take away their ability to lay mines in the Strait Of Hormuz, will take away their ballistic missiles, will crush whatever is left of the nuclear program.

然后我们可以宣布：现在你们被遏制了，这是一种不同的遏制方式。

And then we could say, now you're contained, a kind of different kind of containment.

你们的经济仍在崩溃。

Your economy is still cratering.

制裁仍然存在。

Sanctions remain.

你们的军事力量已降至最低点。

Your military's down to a one.

现在我们要说，这从一开始就是我们的目标。

Now we're gonna say that was the objective all along.

在这种情况下，同样地，第一段中，最终人民更有机会挺身而出。

And in that scenario, again, paragraph one, eventually the people have a better shot of stepping up.

你提到过为地面行动做准备。

You talked about prepping the ground game.

这听起来像是地面的软性资产或情报。

That sounds like soft assets or intelligence on the ground.

我只是想听听你的评估。

I'm just curious to get your assessment.

我的评估是，摩萨德已经深度渗透到每一个层面——我的理解是，美国公众至今仍未完全意识到这里发生了什么。

My assessment is that the Mossad has deeply penetrated every I mean, we still my understanding is don't fully the American public don't fully recognize what has happened here.

我们在头48小时内就除掉了相当于总统、国防部长和参谋长联席会议主席级别的人员。

We have taken out the equivalent of the president, the secretary of defense, the head of the joint chiefs in the first forty eight hours.

我的意思是，这里的情报水平简直非同寻常。

I mean, the level of intelligence here is just extraordinary.

我并不是想贬低我们情报部门那些杰出的军人，但我认为，最值得关注的是摩萨德在这里发挥了不成比例的关键作用。

And I don't mean to diminish the incredible servicemen and servicewomen in our intelligence, But I would posit that the the most sought has played a disproportionate role here.

我们对制空权的掌控，是否意味着我们本应更好地准备地面行动，还是说这反而为打造更强的地面行动创造了更多机会？

Is our ability to control the skies create do you still feel like we should have done a better job prepping the ground game, or does this create more opportunity to have a stronger ground game?

你对迄今为止的情报工作有何评估？你认为未来会如何发展？

Or what is your assessment of the intelligence to date and what you think it might be moving forward?

你完全正确。

You are absolutely correct.

摩萨德深度渗透了伊朗社会和政府，就像他们渗透真主党一样。

Mossad has deeply penetrated Iranian society and governance exactly as they did to Hezbollah.

我认为，他们在哈马斯方面的能力显然较弱。

I think they were less capable, obviously, on Hamas.

历史学家们将来会试图剖析这一点。

Historians will try and pull that one apart.

但以色列显然对伊朗社会有着细致入微、精准到指尖的了解。

But Israel clearly had granular, Germans say, fingerstull, that feeling about Iranian society.

我认为他们应该主导这一努力，以建立一个真正的抵抗运动。

And I think they ought to be leading this effort to try and build a serious resistance movement.

你说得非常好，没错。

To your excellent point, yes.

我们所做的一切，不仅仅是掌控空中和海上，还包括摧毁指挥与控制节点、捣毁警察局。

Everything we've done, not just dominating the air and the sea, but also taking out command and control nodes, taking out the police station.

所有这些都有助于抵抗力量以一种真正有效的方式崛起，而不仅仅是冲上街头碰运气。

All of that contributes to the ability of the resistance to come forward in a serious way, not just rolling into the streets and hoping for the best.

关于这一切，最后我想说的是，要让抗议成功，除了我们讨论过的所有因素外，还需要极其细致的情报和网络能力，即能够瘫痪对手的网络，使其陷入黑暗。

And a final thought here on all of that would be for the protest to succeed, it's gonna take, in addition to everything we've talked about, also really granular intelligence and also cyber capability, the ability to take down the opponent's networks to black them out.

所有这些能力，摩萨德、中情局或特种部队都能做到，我希望他们在未来能够付诸行动。

All of that is something Massad, CIA, or special forces can do, and I hope they do in the time ahead.

所以我想谈谈这个U。

So I wanted to get to this U.

S。

S.

以色列，对双方来说最重要的是什么？

Israel, what's most important to either side?

鲁比奥部长的言论尤其让我震惊，他说我们并不知道他们打算除掉阿亚图拉，那实际上并不在我们的计划清单上，这个消息是通过国会议员迈克·特纳传来的。

And I was particularly struck by secretary Rubio's comments that they didn't we didn't know that they were going to take out the Ayatollah, that that wasn't actually on our list, and this came via congressman Mike Turner.

所以以色列，我们很清楚以色列一直想做什么，而且他们对此表达得非常明确。

So Israel we know exactly what Israel has wanted to do, and they've been perfectly clear about that.

你认为美国有多少……

How much do you think of The U.

S.

S.

其动机是为了对抗中国吗？

Motivation is due to countering China?

因为我觉得这一点讨论得还不够充分，我的意思是，霍尔木兹海峡目前已经关闭了。

Because I feel like that hasn't been discussed as much as I it mean, the Strait Of Hormuz is shut down right now.

我们，你知道的，已经看到油价显然出现了大幅飙升。

We've, you know, seen the huge spike, obviously, in oil prices.

但我们知道，我们的目标——你确实多次谈论并 extensively 撰写过这一点——是遏制中国，而他们从伊朗和委内瑞拉获得廉价石油。

But we know that our goal, and and you certainly spoken about this and written on it extensively, is to push back against China, and they get cheap oil from Iran, also Venezuela.

因此，这似乎在特朗普总统的思维中构成了一条关联线索。

So that feels like a connective tissue line, maybe in president Trump's thinking.

那么，你认为美国的动机在多大程度上与中国的因素有关？

So how much do you think The US rationale has to do with China?

我认为，这比你想象的要少。

I think less than you might think.

但你说得完全正确。

But you're you're absolutely right.

中国和俄罗斯都因这些事件而被削弱。

It's both China and Russia who are diminished by these events.

别忘了，这些事件对乌克兰也有连锁影响，有好有坏。

And don't forget, there's a knock on effect to all this in Ukraine in in a couple of ways, some good, some bad.

从负面来看，大量弹药和能力现在被转移了，极其庞大的注意力、情报、网络和太空资源，如今都像激光一样聚焦于中东。

On the bad side, a lot of munitions, a lot of capability is now diverted, and incredible amounts of attention, intelligence, cyber, space, all now focused like a a laser beam on The Middle East.

这会对乌克兰方面产生不利的连锁影响。

That will have knock on effects, not good ones, on the Ukrainian side in this.

从好的方面看，别忘了伊朗一直向俄罗斯提供大量无人机。

On the good side of this, don't forget Iran has been supplying Russia with a great deal of their unmanned vehicles, their drones, if you will.

他们在这其中非常活跃。

They've been very involved in this.

因此，俄罗斯在军事上与中国有关联，而你完全正确，特蕾莎，这关乎能源和经济。

So there's a military component on Russia over on China, and you're absolutely right, Theresa, it's energy and the economy.

中国太聪明了。

China's way too smart.

习近平太聪明了，不会在地缘政治上真正与伊朗站在一起。

Xi Jinping is way too smart to really throw in geopolitically with Iran.

但在经济上，双方互动很多，比如中国是‘一带一路’倡议的重要参与者，还有其他许多合作。

But economically, there's a lot of interaction, including they're a big part of the Belt and Road Initiative and a number of other things.

所以，是的，总体而言，当我们削弱伊朗、回归斯科特的论点——将其打压到最低点时，这有利于美国，因为伊朗将更难与中国和俄罗斯合作。

So, yes, this is of benefit, generally speaking, to The United States when we diminish Iran back to Scott's thesis, taking them down to a one, they have less ability to do things with China and with Russia.

这是好事。

That's a good thing.

但归根结底，本届政府的主要关注点在于，他们希望能将这一成果拉回西方世界，融入商业和经济领域。

But at the end of the day, the the principal focus here for this administration has been this idea that they can kind of pull this prize back into the world of the West and into business and commerce.

我不会完全排除这种可能性。

I wouldn't entirely rule that out.

我确实提到过，有30%的可能性，人们会以投资者身份崛起。

Certainly, I've talked about 30% chance that people rise up as investors.

许多听你和斯科特节目的人都是投资者。

And many of the people who listen to you and Scott are investors.

是的，现在油价正在飙升。

Yeah, there's an oil price spike now.

那这个三重组合呢？

How about this trifecta?

政府在委内瑞拉成功落地，那里的石油将摆脱制裁得以释放。

The administration lands the plane in Venezuela, and that oil comes out from under sanctions.

伊朗人民起义，推翻政权，摆脱制裁。

The people rise up in Iran and flip the regime, and they come out from under sanctions.

我说过三重奏，第三个是什么？

And I said trifecta, what's the third?

我们与俄罗斯达成协议。

We cut a deal with Russia.

俄罗斯、乌克兰，冻结现状，按当前边界划分国家。

Russia, Ukraine, freeze the frame, divide the country along the lines that are held right now.

这是一项摆在桌面上的提议。

This is a proposal on the table.

如果这种情况发生，俄罗斯的石油和天然气摆脱制裁，那就太棒了。

And if that happens and Russian oil and gas come out from under sanctions, wow.

这就像走进拉斯维加斯的赌场，投下一枚硬币，然后中了三个金色樱桃。

Now that's the equivalent of walking into a casino in Vegas, putting a quarter in the slot machine and hitting three golden cherries.

不太可能同时得到这三项，但作为

It's not likely you're gonna get all three, but as

投资者，这种情况确实会发生。

investors It does happen.

作为投资者，有时你必须为灾难性的成功做好准备。

As investors, sometimes you have to be prepared for catastrophic success.

顺便说一下，斯科特作为在场的经济学家可能会说，但将军，这种情况下有赢家也有输家。

And by the way, Scott is gonna say, being the economist in the room, you know, but Admiral, there are winners and losers in that scenario.

石油价格可能会下跌。

That price of oil may come down.

这对沙特阿拉伯不利。

That's not good for the Saudis.

这对德克萨斯州不利。

That's not good for Texas.

这对加拿大不利。

That's not good for Canada.

诸如此类的事情。

Blah blah blah.

但关键是，这个情景值得认真思考。

But point is, that's the scenario that's worth thinking about.

大量石油将涌入市场。

A lot more oil coming into the markets.

这些情况都可能在2026年发生。

That could all happen in 2026.

说到这一点，这实际上将成为历史上最大规模的减税。

Well, to your point, that would effectively be the largest tax cut in history.

天哪。

Dang.

是的。

Yeah.

而且我认为，当我们探讨哪些事情可能顺利发展时，如果你考虑到这个拥有全球第二大天然气储量、第三大石油储量、对科学和教育高度推崇的九千万人口经济体，并释放它的潜力。

And also, I think when we ask what could go right, if you took this, as you pointed out, this 90,000,000 person economy that sits on the second largest reserves of natural gas, third largest of oil, incredible appreciation for science, education, and you unleash that economy.

太棒了。

Bang.

是的。

Yeah.

我实际上认为，这恰恰可能是欧洲所需要的。

I actually think this could be what, quite frankly, what Europe needs.

我想象他们会成为欧洲一个难以置信的贸易伙伴。

I would imagine they'd be just an unbelievable trading partner for Europe.

完全正确，斯科特。

A 100%, Scott.

我在卡莱尔工作，卡莱尔在欧洲有强大的并购能力，我们正在积极关注这个情景中‘如果一切顺利’的部分。

And we at Carlyle, where I work, of course, we have a significant buyout capability in Europe, and and we are looking actively to the, well, what if this goes right part of this scenario?

欧洲已经为这一切做好了准备。

Europe is primed for this.

杰西？

Jess?

是的。

Yeah.

但这其实是对你刚才所说内容的补充。

It's additive to what you were just talking about, though.

我不太擅长直接说‘砰’这样的词，但我喜欢这种感觉。

I'm not good at going like bang, but I like it.

这给整个事情增添了一种令人兴奋的层面。

It was like an exciting side to this.

这是一位海军上将。

It's an admiral.

说到‘砰’，我得赶紧转到CNN那边了。

Thinking of going bang, I'd I'd gotta go bang over to CNN here.

好吧。

And Okay.

最后一个问题，杰丝。

Last question, Jess.

只是快速问一下，有没有一个涉及外交的额外情景？

Just really quickly, is it is there an extra scenario that involves diplomacy?

因为阿曼人仍在恳求各方回到谈判桌前，并表示他们有更好的伊核协议可供选择。

Because the Omanis are still begging for people to come back to the table, and they say we have a better g JCPOA available.

你对此有何看法？

Do you give any weight to that?

我认同。

I do.

这属于大约70%的范畴，可能正是斯科特提到的大幅削弱伊朗整体能力的那部分。

And this would be in the category of kind of the 70%, and it's probably where Scott has talked about really degrading the Iranian overall capabilities.

让他们回到谈判桌，达成特朗普总统想要的协议，或许能让伊朗进入3.0版本——我们不会和他们关系特别友好，但他们可能会在一定程度上摆脱制裁。

Let them come back to the table, cut the deal that president Trump wants, and you could possibly have Iran three point o, somebody we're not gonna be super friendly with, but it could be that they would come somewhat out from under sanctions.

这正是我们之前讨论内容的一个小版本。

It's a a small version of what we've been talking about.

很好。

Great.

非常感谢。

Thank you so much.